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Don't count anybody out, ever. But perfect? Philip Humber was never supposed to be perfect, but on the 21st day of April he was exactly that: the 21st pitcher to deliver a perfect game and the first to throw one since Roy Halladay threw the 20th on May 29, 2010. It was also the first American League perfecto since Dallas Braden on May 9, 2010.

But he was never supposed to be perfect. After all, he had proven so very imperfect since being the third overall pick of the 2004 draft. Touted as a top Mets prospect, he blew out his elbow in 2005, and it wasn’t long before he was referred to as another example of a Rice pitcher who got hurt and hadn’t lived up to the hype. Unimpressed with his minor league performance after coming back from Tommy John surgery, the Mets bundled him into the four-for-one swap that brought them Johan Santana before the 2008 season.

But the Twins never let him start a single game in the majors after making 48 starts over two years at Triple-A, simply letting him slip away after 2009 rather than keep him on the 40-man roster. The Royals picked him up ... and they left him in Triple-A. However desperate the Royals were for pitching of any flavor, they lost him on waivers after the 2010 season to the A’s. They were just looking for a possible fifth starter. But the A’s lost him on waivers a month later when they decided they had a better way to use to spot on their 40-man roster, signing free agent Grant Balfour.

That is where the White Sox stepped in, grabbing Humber off waivers. Their goal for him wasn’t any higher than anyone else’s. He looked like a good guy to stash at the back end of a rotation -- a fifth guy, a bubble guy on an organizational depth chart, a guy only as good as his last start before giving him much thought. He was somebody who sticks only as long as he earns his keep and who won’t be forgiven a run of bad starts.

That was his due, because at no point did Humber dominate in Triple-A. Across four years bouncing among organizations, flitting from New Orleans to Rochester to Omaha, from the Pacific Coast League to the International League and back again, he posted a 4.67 ERA in Triple-A. His clip of 6.9 strikeouts and 2.7 unintentional walks per nine reflected a pitcher who had good command.

With heat that just bumps above 90 mph and good command of four pitches, he’s a finesse righty, and those don’t catch many breaks. But he promptly proved he belonged last season, getting that last slot in the White Sox’s rotation and keeping it, earning job security he’d probably only heard about happening to other people. And now, having achieved history as a strike-throwing machine, those days should be behind him for some time to come.

He’s not the first such find for general manager Kenny Williams, though. The White Sox have made a cottage industry out of giving second chances to other teams’ tarnished top prospects. Gavin Floyd looked like a Phillies flop after being the fourth overall pick of the 2001 draft; John Danks was the ninth overall selection for the Rangers in 2003, but they dealt him for Brandon McCarthy after seeing him deliver mediocre results at Double- and Triple-A. Good pitching might be hard to find, and not everything Williams touches turns to gold, but these are the benefits of betting on upside risk.

Humber might have had the good fortune to face the Mariners, a woeful lineup, in Safeco Field, a great place to pitch. But other people get those chances, and they don’t deliver perfection. It’s because of these finds that the Sox have the best rotation in the American League Central, and how they do will define how far the Sox might go this season. As Humber just showed, that might be a lot better than you ever expected.


Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

At first blush, Stephen Strasburg’s overpowering start for the Washington Nationals might seem like good news for a club trying to get itself taken every bit as seriously as the Miami Marlins in the National League East’s “Division of Death” this season. But two outstanding starts into the season, Strasburg’s work brings up a couple of interesting things about this Nats club that bear watching as we head deeper into the 2012 season.

First, there’s the question of his workload. In the broad strokes, worrying about this now would definitely qualify as a case of too much, too soon. Even if Strasburg is limited to starting in a five-man rotation, in which nobody’s turn gets skipped because of scheduled days off, his total starts and innings are going to pile up. Even if Strasburg gets the odd extra day of rest between turns, he’s going to have around 17 starts by the All-Star break. As a 23-year-old. Coming back from elbow surgery. With the second half to look forward to. If he fends off a (perhaps unwanted) All-Star Game invite, he’d be on turn to lead off the rotation in the second half, same as the first.

That might not seem like a big deal. Davey Johnson probably isn’t going to overwork his young stud starter in individual ballgames, after all. But as dominating as Strasburg was Wednesday against the New York Mets, he still racked up 108 pitches against 24 batters in just six innings. Eighteen pitches facing just four guys per inning? That’s life when you’re striking people out, and that’s going to get you run out of games early, even when you’re going well.

But the real problem about the ideal of watching the kid’s workload and giving all due care to the logistical tedium of managing top talent carefully is where it might run up against the Nats’ bid for contention. That might sound silly to talk about in April, but various projection tools have the Nationals winning 80 to 82 games, and perhaps nobody in the NL East reaches 90. That makes the Nats a contender, on paper or in projections, admittedly, but a team that will be in the running.

Now, what does that mean for how they manage their best starter’s workload down the stretch? Is a buzzer going to go off when Strasburg makes his 24th start at the end of August, and general manager Mike Rizzo rings up Davey in the dugout and says, “Bad news, skip, the kid’s got just two starts left this year”? An incredulous Johnson might look at the standings and see that his team’s just four out and wonder what the point of the first five months was if you have to pull up and watch the Braves or Phillies or Marlins race on ahead.

That becomes even more difficult to swallow with the new two-wild-card setup for the postseason -- if you’re the Nats, and you might squeak into a one-game playoff to move into the NL Division Series, wouldn’t you feel pretty confident about your chances if you’ve got Strasburg in the fold?

Happily for the Nats, Johnson has a roster set up with more than a few compensations to deal with a young ace who’s going to have to be handled carefully early in the season, so maybe the issue becomes academic. First, you can skip worrying about who’s getting saves for the Nats, whether it’s Drew Storen or Brad Lidge at whatever point of the season. The real relief the Nats can look forward to comes from the relative no-names who will be pitching in the sixth, seventh and eighth innings, starting with Tyler Clippard -- the NL’s most valuable non-Braves reliever last year, according to WAR -- and Henry Rodriguez's triple-digit gas, and Craig Stammen's ground-pounding sinker. That’s the kind of talent that will keep hard-hit balls from happening, usually with strikeouts. They won’t notch saves, but they’ll allow Johnson to hook Strasburg earlier than a previous generation’s skipper might have, and that might help keep the kid in the mix to the very end of the season.

Second, Johnson’s an old hand at getting the best from his lineups, to the point that he’ll eke out runs by cheating on defense. Witness Wednesday’s lineup behind Strasburg: With lefty Johan Santana on the mound, it becomes relatively affordable to put the towering Jayson Werth out in center field. Why? Because Strasburg generates so many outs at home plate that Johnson can risk a few adequate (or worse) defenders on the field. Against the Mets, Strasburg got half of his outs at home with those nine K's, got three ground-ball outs, and got a fly-ball out per inning.

There’s nothing very newfangled about this: Back in the 1980s, Johnson was willing to play sluggers such as Howard Johnson or a young Kevin Mitchell at shortstop when he had an extreme fly-ball/strikeout pitcher such as Sid Fernandez on the mound. And with more strikeouts happening today than ever, it makes even more sense now.

So maybe that’s the formula that gets Strasburg deep into the season: Better run support thanks to tailored lineups, a bullpen that can cover three or four frames per game, and not just pitch counts. If the Nats stay in this thing the way you could think they might, we’ll see what they decide about Strasburg’s workload then.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

There are so many new pitchers to capture our attention -- Matt Moore or Yu Darvish or Justin Verlander, for example -- it's easy to forget it wasn't long ago Stephen Strasburg was the prospect du jour or that Johan Santana was one of the best pitchers in the game.

The New York Mets won't be protecting a perfect record Wednesday afternoon at Citi Field after their first loss of the season on Tuesday, but their game against the Washington Nationals features an intriguing matchup between these two pitchers. Both are attempting to return from injuries after missing all or most of 2011.

"It's always good for baseball when you have a matchup like that," Santana told ESPN New York's Adam Rubin. "I'm still working my way back. But it's definitely good. Every time you have a challenge like that, it's going to be a good one, and I'm looking forward to it."

Strasburg had a solid Opening Day effort against the Chicago Cubs, allowing one run with five strikeouts in seven innings at Wrigley. His average fastball velocity clocked in at 95.3 mph, less than the 97.3 he averaged in 2010 but still some impressive heat, especially for a first start in April. The bigger issue, as it is with many pitchers coming off Tommy John surgery, is command of their pitches.

Here are two heat maps for Strasburg, the first showing his pitch location versus right-handed batters with his fastball in the 2010 season, and the other from last week, in his start against the Cubs.



In 2010, Strasburg held right-handed batters to a .218 average off his fastball. As you can see from the heat map, he pretty much gunned high fastballs down the middle, overpowering them with high 90s octane. Against, the Cubs, he threw 42 fastballs to right-handed batters and was a bit inconsistent with his location. He walked only one batter, but if you watch Wednesday, pay attention to where he's spotting his fastball and whether he can use it to get ahead of hitters.

From 2002 through 2010, Santana was an incredible 130-66 with a 2.90 ERA, leading his league three times in ERA, three times in strikeouts and winning two Cy Young Awards. He led all starting pitchers in ERA over that span and held hitters to a .221 average. His knockout pitch was a devastating changeup, a big reason he's held right-handed batters to a lower career OPS than lefties.

Below is the heat map on Santana's changeup location versus right-handed batters in 2010 and in his Opening Day start against the Braves.



As you can see, he made his living against righties on the low outside corner; there's not much hitters can do with that pitch. Righties hit just .189 off Santana's changeup in 2010. He threw 10 changeups to righties against the Braves and, with this limited sample size, he was all over the place. Like Strasburg's fastball command, check to see Santana's changeup location. With the Nationals featuring a righty-heavy lineup, he'll need to be hitting that outside corner.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

I'm still trying to catch my breath. What a first weekend of games, from ace starters dominating to bullpen implosions to clutch home runs. The first week of the season is always entertaining for the rash judgments and choleric reactions to a few losses, but there's no denying the big storyline: The Baltimore Orioles are undefeated!

OK, I kid, but we may not get a chance to mention the Orioles too often this year. (Nick Markakis is swinging a sweet stick so far!) No, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are both 0-3, for the time since 1966 when they finished and ninth and 10th in the 10-team American League. I asked ESPN Insider Dan Szymborski, king of projections, how often the Red Sox and Yankees both missed the playoffs in his simulated seasons. The answer: 5.1 percent of the time. And if you want to believe that both clubs aren't as strong as Szymborski originally projected (he had the Yankees at 93 wins, the Red Sox at 89), the odds are even lower. So, it's not absolutely crazy to think both of these teams could fall short of October.

For all you haters out there, however: The 1998 Yankees started 0-3 and won 114 games ... so don't get too excited just yet. Still, attention will be focused on all the hysteria coming out of the Boston and New York camps this week, and deservedly so. But there is much to watch in our first full of week of action.

Series of the week

Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers, Tuesday through Thursday

Matt Moore vs. Rick Porcello
James Shields vs. Justin Verlander
Jeff Niemann vs. Drew Smyly

An intriguing series as both teams are coming off season-opening sweeps. The Moore's anticipated 2012 debut is must-watch baseball. You're telling me you're not excited to see how the rookie attacks Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder? We get the two aces on Wednesday, with Verlander coming off a dominant Opening Day performance. Shields didn't face the Tigers last season. Rookie Smyly makes his major league debut on Thursday. The Tigers' second-round pick out of Arkansas in 2010, Smyly made his pro debut in 2011 and posted a 2.26 ERA between Class A and Double-A, with 131 strikeouts and 38 walks in 127.2 innings. He beat out Jacob Turner, the team's top prospect, for the No. 5 job in rotation. A 6-foot-3 lefty, Smyly isn't overpowering but throws strikes and repeats his delivery well. A start this weekend for Toledo didn't go well, as he lasted just 1.2 innings and gave up three hits and two walks.

Three pitching matchups to watch

1. Monday: Hector Noesi vs. Yu Darvish, Mariners vs. Rangers (8:05 p.m. ET)

Umm, I'm sure Noesi has his fans but this is all about Darvish's first start. The Rangers carefully slotted Darvish in as the team's No. 4 starter, allowing him to make his first two starts against the Mariners and Twins. That's called easing him in.

2. Wednesday: Stephen Strasburg vs. Johan Santana, Nationals at Mets (1 p.m. ET)

A crucial NL East tilt! Hey, the Mets are 3-0, don't laugh. Both pitchers were solid in the season debuts, although the Mets would like to see Santana go deeper then the five inning he pitched on Opening Day.

3. Wednesday: Josh Johnson vs. Roy Halladay, Marlins at Phillies (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2/ESPN3)

These two have faced off three times since Halladay joined the Phillies. Johnson won last year 2-1 while they split in 2010 -- Halladay winning 1-0 with his perfect game and Johnson winning 2-0 (Halladay allowed just one run).

Player on the hot seat: Red Sox bullpen

Closer Alfredo Aceves has faced five batters in two games and failed to retire any of them. Mark Melancon has already been tagged with two losses, as five of the eight batters to face him have knocked out hits. Will Bobby Valentine panic? Will Franklin Morales be moved to closer? Will Daniel Bard return to the pen before he even starts a game? Good times, Red Sox Nation!

Player to watch: Yoenis Cespedes

With three home runs in his first four games -- including a mammoth home run off the facing off the second deck in Oakland on Friday night, a 462-foot blast he stood and admired for a couple seconds -- Cespedes has already displayed the huge power that scouts drooled over. He's also fanned seven times with no walks in 13 plate appearances. As Mark Simon points out, Cespedes has taken 13 swings on breaking pitches and missed on 10 of them, looking especially vulnerable on balls in the dirt. It's been all or nothing but the "all" has been mighty impressive.

Heat map of the week

Clayton Kershaw's slider is one of the most devastating weapons in baseball. In 2011, left-handers went 8-for-58 (.138) with 26 strikeouts and one home run when putting the slider in play (or striking out against); right-handers went 23-for-198 (.116) with 112 strikeouts and just two home runs. What makes the slider so tough isn't necessarily the location, but the movement on it and how he sets it up with his fastball. As you can, the slider is often in a hittable location -- but hitters can't hit it.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

This looks like the pitching line of a dominant closer:

88.2 IP, 49 H, 15 R, 14 ER, 27 BB, 77 SO, 2 HR, 1.44 ERA

That's the collective work of Thursday's 14 starting pitchers. Eleven of the 14 allowed one run or zero runs. Justin Verlander and Roy Halladay affirmed their status as baseball's top pitchers with eight scoreless innings each. Justin Masterson and Ryan Dempster each struck out 10. Clayton Kershaw, with his own claim as baseball's best, started despite a bad case of the flu and still pitched three scoreless innings before exiting. Johnny Cueto shut down the Marlins on three hits over seven innings.

Starting pitchers: Dominant.

Hitters: Still working on their timing.

The bullpens weren't quite as effective, leading to an exciting ninth inning in Detroit as Jose Valverde, a perfect 49-for-49 in save opportunites in 2011, blew a 2-0 lead; Kerry Wood couldn't hold a 1-0 lead for the Cubs, walking three consecutive batters; and Cleveland's Chris Perez collapsed in a flurry of walks and hits to surrender a 4-1 lead. That blown save eventually led to Toronto's 7-4 victory in 16 innings, the longest Opening Day game in history.

Baseball, welcome back.

If anything, the dominant form of the pitchers raises the obvious question: Will offense decline again in 2012? Check out the runs-per-game totals in recent seasons:

2007: 9.6
2008: 9.3
2009: 9.2
2010: 8.8
2011: 8.6

Of course, one day -- especially when guys named Verlander, Halladay, Kershaw and Jon Lester are pitching -- doesn't signify anything. Still we had three shutouts and nearly had two others. That isn't necessarily unusual, as there were many days in 2011 with three shutouts and May 14 with six such games. Still, three of the seven games were shutouts and we nearly had four 1-0 games.

* * * *

Fun fact of the day: In the bottom of the 12th inning the Indians put runners at the corners with one out. Blue Jays manager John Farrell brought in Omar Vizquel as a fifth infielder. Technically, since he replaced Eric Thames, Vizquel was listed as a left fielder, just his second major league appearance as an outfielder. The first one came in a remarkable game in 1999. The Indians scored 10 runs in the bottom of the eighth inning, capped by Richie Sexson's three-run homer off Troy Percival, to take a 14-12 lead against the Angels. Due to various moves in that inning, Vizquel moved from shortstop to right field in the ninth inning.

Fun fact No. 2: There were two previous 15-inning games on Opening Day. The Tigers beat the Indians 4-2 in 1960 and in 1926 Walter Johnson outdueled Eddie Rommel 1-0. That's right, both pitchers went the distance.

Hero of the day: How about Toronto reliever Luis Perez? He got out of that first-and-third jam with a double play and went on to pitch four hitless innings.

Good sight of the day: Johan Santana back on the mound for the Mets, throwing five scoreless innings.

Spring-training-doesn't-matter note of the day: Matt Kemp looked horrible all spring for the Dodgers, finishing with 26 strikeouts and two walks. He went 2-for-5 with a two-run home run and no whiffs.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

The anticipation begins as soon as the final out of the World Series is recorded. It builds during an offseason of trade rumors and free-agent signings, spring training injury updates and roster cutdowns. Then Opening Day arrives and maybe a small part of us wonders whether we'll still care as much. But then Justin Verlander takes the mound and Jacoby Ellsbury steps in and we wonder whether Verlander can amaze us like he did so often last year or whether Ellsbury will have the same lightning in his bat. Roy Halladay takes the mound and we wonder whether this is the season he slips a bit or why Ty Wigginton is batting fifth or whether the Pirates will actually do anything.

So we flip on the TV or the computer or check the updates on our phones. Maybe you sneak a peek at work or school. We're kids again, with a million questions that need answers and baseball on our minds.

* * * *

A few notes from the early games ...

• Justin Verlander picked up where he left off, dominating the Red Sox with eight shutout innings. He got into one mini-jam, two runners on with two outs in the sixth and David Ortiz up. Ortiz got in an 0-2 hole, fouled off two pitches, and then Verlander spun a filthy, 82 mph curveball that Ortiz swung through, leaving him shaking his head in respectful disgust. Jon Lester was nearly as good for Boston and could have escaped without a run. Alex Avila doubled deep into the left-field corner with two outs in the seventh, a nice piece of hitting in which he fought off a 93 mph up-and-in fastball. The ball hung in the air awhile, but Cody Ross was unable to track it down. (Would Carl Crawford have made the play?)
  
  When the Tigers tacked another run off Vicente Padilla in the eighth to make it 2-0, the game appeared over. Jim Leyland yanked Verlander after 105 pitches -- he averaged 116 per outing in 2011 -- and brought in Papa Grande, Jose Valverde, Mr. Perfect who was 52-for-52 in save opportunities last season including the playoffs. But this is why we love baseball: Sure enough, Valverde blows the save, and everybody wonders why Verlander was taken out.
  
  For what it's worth, nobody tosses a complete game anymore on Opening Day. There have been just six nine-inning outings since 2000, and only Felix Hernandez has gone the distance since 2007.
  
  Valverde got the vulture win when the Tigers scored in the bottom of the ninth, so in the end the only negative for Detroit was Verlander didn't get the deserved "W" next to his name, a reminder of why he might pitch just as well and not win 24 games again. Jhonny Peralta and Avila hit soft singles off Mark Melancon -- Ryan Sweeney, who failed to track down Austin Jackson's leadoff triple in the eighth pulled up short on Peralta's hit. (It was the smart play with one out; you can't give up an extra-base hit there.) Bobby Valentine then went to Alfredo Aceves, his designated closer and a better bet to induce a ground ball, although also less of a strikeout pitcher. Anyway, Aceves hit Ramon Santiago, then Jackson drilled a 2-1 pitch past a diving Kevin Youkilis for the winning hit.
  One game in, and you already know there will be questions raised about the Red Sox's bullpen.
• Halladay was Halladay, with eight cruise-control innings against the Pirates. There were a few concerns during spring training when Halladay allowed seven home runs in just 22 innings after surrendering just 10 last season. But he flipped the switch and allowed two hits and no walks, and threw just 92 pitches. Jonathan Papelbon showed what a closer is supposed to do, with a 1-2-3 ninth.
  
  The Phillies' lineup, of course, is a cause for concern with Chase Utley and Ryan Howard out, and one run won't alleviate those concerns. But for at least one day Phillies fans can toast Ty Wigginton, who scored the game's only run and made a nice stretch at first base to record the final out of the eighth. Yes, Phillies fans are counting on Wigginton to be productive. Chalk it up as a reason nobody can predict what will happen this season.
• For a while, it looked like we might have three or four games end 1-0. There were 52 such games in 2011, never more than two on one day. But the late rallies in Detroit and then Chicago ended that. The Mets' 1-0 victory included five solid innings from Johan Santana. He was throwing 87-88 mph, but because he relies on his slider and changeup, he doesn't necessarily have to be overpowering. In 2010, when he posted a 2.98 ERA before his season-ending injury in September, Santana averaged 89.4 mph on his fastball. That was down from his peak velocity with the Twins of 93 mph, but he proved he still can be effective throwing 88-90.
• Stephen Strasburg was also impressive in a windy day at Wrigley, allowing one run over seven innings. Ryan Dempster was even more dominant, striking out 10 over 7 2/3 innings. Kerry Wood came on with a runner on base ... and walked three batters in a row. Jayson Werth battled back from an 0-2 count to force in the tying run. The Nationals then scored in the ninth off the always-shaky Carlos Marmol to win 2-1. The Cubs got a one-out triple from Ian Stewart, but Jeff Baker swung at a first-pitch slider from Brad Lidge and pulled it to third base as Stewart went on contact. He was easily out at home plate. Nothing more painful than blowing a late lead to lose at home on Opening Day. Wait 'til next year, Cubbies.

Some quick bullet points on our third Opening Day/night of the season:

1. A day of aces. Justin Verlander, Roy Halladay, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, Ricky Romero, Justin Masterson ... I think we may see some low-scoring games today. Strasburg's start in Chicago will be especially interesting. After his impressive return last September, his spring training numbers were mediocre (not that you can read too much into that).

2. Red Sox closer situation. Bobby Valentine named Alfredo Aceves his closer. The most interesting thing here is to see how Valentine employs him. Much of Aceves' value a year ago was that he wasn't just a one-inning guy. The Red Sox are carrying 13 pitchers, but you wonder if Valentine will try and use Mark Melancon and Aceves to get more than six outs if Boston has a lead and the starter has to come out.

3. Johan Santana making his first start since Sept. 2, 2010. If he gives the Mets 30 ace-level starts, can they become surprise contenders in a tough division? (My Mets friends say: No.)

4. The revamped Citi Field dimensions. We saw all the space in Marlins Park last night. The Mets went the opposite direction, moving the fences in. How much will that affect home runs?

5. Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. How will Cabrera handle third base? Is there any truth to the belief that Fielder will "protect" Cabrera? He did receive 22 intentional walks last year, so in theory that number may decrease.

Some more good stuff from around the SweetSpot network ...

• Ben Duronio examines Craig Kimbrel's breaking ball. Some label the pitch a slider or slurve, but Kimbrel refers to it as a curveball. Here's all that matters: It's a devastating pitch.
• Value Over Replacement Grit has an in-depth look at the "Three True Outcomes" concept (a batter either hitting a home run, drawing a walk or striking out) and applies it to entire teams. Which teams in history have best emulated a TTO attitude?
• Chip Buck of Fire Brand compares the AL East rotations.
• Alex Gordon may be close to signing a one-year deal with the Royals. Craig Brown of Royals Authority has a reaction and breaks down what a potential long-term deal could look like.
• Camden Depot's Jon Shepherd examines what Manny Ramirez could potentially bring if the Orioles sign him.
• Marlins reliever Steve Cishek flew under the radar as a rookie but posted impressive numbers. Jonathan Mitchell at Marlins Daily asks whether Cishek should be considered for a high-leverage role in the Marlins' bullpen.
• At Baseball Prospectus, Aaron Gleeman reviews the Johan Santana trade between the Mets and Twins. With that article in mind, Bill Baer looks back the deals that brought the Phillies Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt.
• Considering what the Brewers traded to get Zack Greinke -- compared to what the Reds gave up for Mat Latos and the Cubs to acquire Matt Garza -- that deal is looking like a steal for Milwaukee, writes Jack Moore.
• Joey Matschulat opines on Elvis Andrus' three-year extension with the Rangers.
• Chris Quick looks at some of the PECOTA projections for the Giants. (PECOTA is the projection system used by Baseball Prospectus.) What about new outfielder Melky Cabrera? Well ... let's just say the Giants may still struggle to score runs.
• Yes, Cubs fans, you have reasons to be optimistic!
• For my fellow Mariners fans, Brendan Gawlowski has a good look at the Mariners' non-roster invites.

And a few more links from elsewhere ...

• John Sickels of Minor League Ball with a fun look at the top 30 position players in baseball and how they were viewed as prospects. Here does the same thing for the top 25 pitchers.
• ESPNBoston kicks off its "10 Question in 10 Days" series heading into spring training with Gordon Edes' look at Bobby Valentine.
• ESPNNewYork has a similar series with the Yankees and Andrew Marchand writes that Johnny Damon is the right fit for the Yankees' DH slot.
• Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas is going position-by-position with the Rangers and looks at Yu Darvish.
• Mark Saxon says that Vernon Wells -- and not Mike Trout -- will be the Angels' left fielder.
• Dave Cameron of FanGraphs lists his top 10 moves of the offseason ... and his 10 worst.
• Mentioned briefly above, Baseball Prospectus has reintroduced PECOTA, its player projection system. Colin Wyers has the details here.
• George Brett's company is being sued. Wait ... you mean those necklaces don't actually improve athletic performance?

On the same day 82-year-old Detroit Tigers owner Mike Ilitch decided to go all-in on Prince Fielder and a World Series title chase, the San Francisco Giants showed some fiscal responsibility by reportedly agreeing with two-time Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum on a two-year, $40.5 million contract. The deal means the two sides will avoid going to arbitration this year and next, his final season before hitting free agency.

This is absolutely the correct approach in handling Lincecum. There is no need to negotiate a long-term deal with a pitcher two years before he's a free agent. Pitchers are risky creatures as is, so why take the risk before you have to? This gives you two more seasons to chase your own World Series title with Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain (if the Giants sign him past 2012).

There seems to be a mindset that teams need to "get something" for a player if they might not be able to sign him to a long-term deal when he becomes a free agent. But why does this make sense if you have a chance to win? The Brewers could have traded Fielder before last season, knowing he was unlikely to stay in Milwaukee, but instead went for it and actually strengthened the club instead by acquiring Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. They made the playoffs and gave themselves a shot at the World Series. It was the right call. The Tampa Bay Rays are taking a similar approach this season with B.J. Upton.

Compare that to the Minnesota Twins with Johan Santana in 2008. They traded Santana for a package of prospects that didn't turn out, but the biggest problem with that trade is that the Twins ended up missing the playoffs when they lost a tiebreaker game to the White Sox. With Santana, they win the division. And once you're in the playoffs, anything can happen; who knows, the Twins may have won the World Series with Santana.

I did a chat earlier on Tuesday in which somebody suggested since the Phillies might not be able to afford Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels in 2013 (Hamels will be a free agent) that maybe they should look to trade one of the three. What? Of course not. You go for it in 2012 behind those guys and if you lose Hamels, so be it.

Next season, you'll certainly hear cries that the Giants should look to trade Lincecum. Get something for him while you can. Or you can try and win another World Series title.

The Giants may decide that Lincecum won't be worth that $100 million investment in the future. Maybe they'll try to sign him and he'll bolt, like Jose Reyes with the Mets. But there's nothing wrong with trying to win now.

Especially when you don't have to spend $214 million to do it.

This is back-of-the-napkin stuff ... but fun back-of-the-napkin stuff. As we wait to see if Prince Fielder does land in Washington, let's check out the state of the NL East. We'll go position by position and rank the players. Then we'll come up with a final tally (five points for first, four for second, etc.)

Catcher
1. Brian McCann, Braves
2. Wilson Ramos, Nationals
3. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
4. Josh Thole, Mets
5. John Buck, Marlins

Phillies fans will storm the bastille over this one and say I'm underestimating Ruiz's ability to call a game, but I think Wilson Ramos has a chance to be something special. He hit .267/.334/.445 as a rookie, spending most of the season at just 23 years old. The thing that bodes well is that his walk rate improved from 4 percent in Triple-A in 2010 to 8.7 percent last season. And to think they got him from the Twins for Matt Capps. Ruiz is an underrated player -- he's posted a .376 OBP the past three seasons -- but Ramos' power and potential for improvement put him at No. 2 behind McCann.

First base
1. Freddie Freeman, Braves
2. Ryan Howard/Jim Thome, Phillies
3. Ike Davis, Mets
4. Gaby Sanchez, Marlins
5. Adam LaRoche, Nationals

Yes, there's huge value for the Nationals in signing Prince Fielder. With Davis and LaRoche coming off serious injuries and Howard out for at least a couple months, I have to give the top nod to Freeman. Sure, maybe he'll succumb to the dreaded sophomore jinx, but baseball history also tells us that players often make a huge leap from age 21 to age 22. If Davis hits like he did in the 36 games he played last year (.302/.383/.543) then he's an All-Star candidate, but while he says he's "good to go" for spring training, we'll have to wait to see how his ankle responds. As for Sanchez, he's a lukewarm cup of coffee on a 32-degree day.

Second base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Danny Espinosa, Nationals
3. Dan Uggla, Braves
4. Daniel Murphy, Mets
5. Omar Infante, Marlins

I put Utley first with some hesitation: His OPS totals since 2007 read .976, .915, .905, .832 and .769. Still, that .769 figure is better than Uggla or Espinosa produced in 2011, and Utley still carries a good glove. It's defense and predicted second-season improvement that pushes Espinosa over Uggla. Murphy doesn't hit many home runs or draw many walks, so most of his offensive value resides in his batting average. If he hits .320 again, he's a good player. If he hits .290, then he's still better than Infante.

Third base
1. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
4. Chipper Jones, Braves
5. Placido Polanco, Phillies

If healthy, Zimmerman is one of the best players in the league. Ramirez and Wright were once part of that discussion, but no longer. Both players had the worst years of their careers in 2011. Will Wright rebound with the fences moved in at Citi Field? Will Ramirez bounce back and handle the transition to third base? Your guess is as good as mine. Chipper is aging gracefully, playing through injuries but still putting up respectable numbers. If this is his last season, I hope he goes out in style.

Shortstop
1. Jose Reyes, Marlins
2. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
3. Ruben Tejada, Mets
4. Ian Desmond, Nationals
5. Tyler Pastornicky, Braves

Not much debate here. Tejada posted a .360 OBP in 2011 as a 21-year-old. He doesn't have any power, but I believe the Mets are in good hands at shortstop. The same can't be said about Desmond, who must improve his defense (23 errors) and approach at the plate (139/35 SO/BB ratio). Pastornicky hit .314 in the minors last year, including .365 in 27 games in Triple-A. He puts the ball in play and has some speed, but won't hit for much power or draw many walks, so he'll need to hit for a good average to hold the job.

Left field
1. Michael Morse, Nationals
2. Martin Prado, Braves
3. Logan Morrison, Marlins
4. Domonic Brown/John Mayberry, Phillies
5. Jason Bay, Mets

We have to consider Morse the real deal by now, don't we? Although he comes with a few caveats: That 126/36 SO/BB ratio is a concern; so is his .344 average on balls in play, which ranked 15th in the majors (can he repeat that figure?); and finally, he plays left field a bit like a fire hydrant. By the way, how bad is this group defensively? Morrison may have even less range than Morse, Brown looked terrible in right field with the Phillies last year and Bay isn't getting paid $16 million because he's adept at running down balls in the gap. Actually, I'm not sure what he's getting paid for.

Center field
1. Shane Victorino, Phillies
2. Michael Bourn, Braves
3. Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins
4. Andres Torres, Mets
5. Roger Bernadina, Nationals

This seems pretty straightforward other than the ongoing raging debate between Andres Torres fans and Roger Bernadina fans.

Right field
1. Mike Stanton, Marlins
2. Hunter Pence, Phillies
3. Jason Heyward, Braves
4. Jayson Werth, Nationals
5. Lucas Duda, Mets

Mike Stanton ... 2012 National League MVP? Too soon? I'm just saying don't be surprised if it happens.

No. 1 starter
1. Roy Halladay, Phillies
2. Josh Johnson, Marlins
3. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
4. Tim Hudson, Braves
5. Johan Santana, Mets

Is there a more important player in the majors in 2012 than Johnson? The Marlins fancy themselves contenders but they need a healthy Johnson headlining the rotation. After leading the NL with a 2.30 ERA in 2010, he had posted a 1.64 ERA through 10 starts in 2011 before shoulder tendinitis shelved him for the season. He's been throwing and long tossing and is expected to be 100 percent for spring training. Strasburg has the ability to be just as dominant as Halladay and Johnson, but the Nationals will likely monitor his innings in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery.

No. 2 starter
1. Cliff Lee, Phillies
2. Gio Gonzalez, Nationals
3. Mark Buehrle, Marlins
4. Tommy Hanson, Braves
5. R.A. Dickey, Mets

This is a terrific group of No. 2 starters, as even the knuckleballer Dickey posted a 3.28 ERA in 2011 (and 3.08 ERA over the past two seasons). Hanson has Cy Young ability, but his own shoulder issues from late last season raise a red flag.

No. 3 starter
1. Cole Hamels, Phillies
2. Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals
3. Anibal Sanchez, Marlins
4. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
5. Mike Pelfrey, Mets

Zimmermann is the sleeping giant in the Nationals rotation. His strikeout/walk ratio of 4.0 ranked 11th-best among starters in 2011 and another year beyond his own TJ surgery should help him develop the stamina to improve on his second-half numbers (2.66 ERA before the All-Star break, 4.47 after). I'm not a big Jurrjens fan; he's a good pitcher, but he's now battled injuries two seasons in a row and his strikeout rate took a big dip last season.

No. 4 starter
1. Brandon Beachy, Braves
2. Vance Worley, Phillies
3. John Lannan, Nationals
4. Jonathon Niese, Mets
5. Ricky Nolasco, Marlins

You could draw this list out of a hat. Beachy and Worley surprised many with their exceptional rookie seasons; I believe both are for real, as both seemed to deliver better-than-advertised fastballs. Now they just have to prove they can become seven-inning pitchers instead of five or six. Niese is an excellent breakout candidate in 2012: He throws hard enough for a lefty (90-91), gets strikeouts, doesn't walk too many, gets groundballs. In fact, his FIP (fielding independent pitching) was 3.36 compared to his actual ERA of 4.40. It wouldn't surprise me to see him win 15 games with a 3.40 ERA. It would surprise me if Nolasco does that; 2008 is starting to look further and further in the rear-view mirror.

No. 5 starter
1. Mike Minor, Braves
2. Carlos Zambrano, Marlins
3. Dillon Gee, Mets
4. Chien-Ming Wang, Nationals
5. Joe Blanton/Kyle Kendrick, Phillies

If you're talking depth, the big edge here goes to the Braves, who also have prospects Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado and Arodys Vizcaino ready to step in. Big Z is a nice gamble by the Marlins as a No. 5 starter, you could do worse.

Closer
1. Craig Kimbrel, Braves
2. Jonathan Papelbon, Phillies
3. Drew Storen, Nationals
4. Heath Bell, Marlins
5. Frank Francisco, Mets

As dominant as Kimbrel was in winning Rookie of the Year honors (14.8 K's per nine), he did blow eight saves. But Papelbon is just one season removed from his own season of eight blown saves. Factor in Kimbrel's K rate and slightly heavier workload, and I'll give him the slight nod. Bell will have to prove himself away from the friendly confines of Petco Park, so Storen rates the clear No. 3 here.

Bullpen
1. Braves -- Jonny Venters, Eric O'Flaherty, Kris Medlen, Cristhian Martinez, Anthony Varvaro
2. Marlins -- Steve Cishek, Edward Mujica, Mike Dunn, Ryan Webb, Randy Choate
3. Nationals -- Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett, Henry Rodriguez, Ryan Perry, Tom Gorzelanny
4. Phillies -- Antonio Bastardo, Michael Stutes, Dontrelle Willis, David Herndon, Jose Contreras
5. Mets -- Bobby Parnell, Jon Rauch, Pedro Beato, Tim Byrdak, Manny Acosta

The top four teams all project to have solid-to-excellent pens. Venters and Clippard are arguably the two best set-up guys in baseball. Cishek is the rare sidearmer who can get lefties out as well as righties and he allowed just one home run in 54 innings as a rookie. The Phillies don't need many innings from their pen and while Willis could be a terrific lefty killer (lefties hit .127 off him in 2011), Bastardo must rebound from his late-season fatigue.

Intangibles
1. Marlins
2. Phillies
3. Braves
4. Nationals
5. Mets

New stadium, new free agents, new manager, new uniforms -- I view all of that as a plus for the Marlins. The playoffs left a sour taste for the Phillies' veteran-heavy squad and those guys will want nothing more than to win a sixth straight division title. The Braves have plenty of incentive after their late-season collapse. The Nationals are young but have no chip on their shoulder. But if they sign Prince ...

The final tally
1. Phillies, 58 points
2. Braves, 56 points
3. Marlins, 49 points
4. Nationals, 48 points
5. Mets, 29 points

And the napkin says the Phillies are still the division favorite. What, you want to bet against Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels?

The Minnesota Twins’ rumored agreement with Jamey Carroll for two years and $7 million is another one of those nice developments (if you’re Jamey Carroll), while simultaneously proving to be yet another cause for frustration for Twins fans still wondering how they got here.

Keep in mind, the Twins haven’t let the position become a scar over the years. After Cristian Guzman left as a free agent, they replaced him with Jason Bartlett, who they’d stolen from the Padres in a minor deal for Brian Buchanan years before. Even before Bartlett got expensive, they bundled him with Matt Garza to get Delmon Young from the Rays. The Twins didn’t effectively replace Bartlett for two years (mucking around with Nick Punto, Orlando Cabrera, Brendan Harris, Adam Everett and more), but finally dealt Carlos Gomez -- one of the keys to the Johan Santana trade -- to get J.J. Hardy. Yet a year later, with Hardy still a year removed from free agency, he was deemed too expensive, and Minnesota dealt him to the Orioles.

In all of these trades -- dealing away Garza plus Bartlett, Gomez, Hardy and Young -- the Twins have ended up on the short end, at least on every scoreboard that doesn’t have a dollar sign on it. Worse yet, they lost talent that other teams have either dealt to better effect or happily retained. And all of those trades belonged to then-general manager Bill Smith. So did signing Tsuyoshi Nishioka and finding he was another Japanese import who couldn’t handle shortstop in the major leagues. And the decision to move Alexi Casilla to short last year, despite a spotty track record there in the minors, without ever spending an entire season at the position? Another Smith move, for which you can blame penury, optimism or madness, whatever your inclination might be.

The question is whether this inaugural move for Terry Ryan’s second (non-consecutive) term running the show in Minny is really that much better, or if it isn’t just the latest patch slapped on a self-inflicted wound. There’s no reason to believe that Carroll can play short adequately on an everyday basis. His Total Zone Fielding Runs or Defensive Runs Saved marks this year were dreadful; they were dreadful in 2005. And this is the man joining a Twins team that needs good fielding behind its pitchers, who routinely rank low in the majors in strikeout rate, touching bottom with last season’s 30th-place finish.

Even if Carroll’s track record as a shortstop wasn’t poor, that’s without getting into the number of shortstops playing the position effectively into their late 30s. Carroll will be 38 by next season, and only 25 teams have ever played a shortstop that old or older; of them, only one, the 1984 Cubs with Larry Bowa, ever made the postseason. The Yankees will be giving it a shot next year with Derek Jeter. Suffice to say Jamey Carroll ain’t the Captain, whatever your position on Jeter’s defensive performance.

It’s possible that Carroll winds up at second instead of short, and that the Twins continue to employ Nishioka and Casilla and Trevor Plouffe at shortstop. However, a four-headed middle-infield monster where nobody can play shortstop effectively simply sounds more monstrous. Add in Danny Valencia’s brand of relative immobility at third, and it sounds like a tough season to come for the Twins’ especially defense-dependent pitching -- unless Carroll replaces Valencia, and the Twins find a shortstop.

Which leaves Minnesota with ... what? Beyond the unfortunate legacy and throwing money at the middle-infield problem, the Twins do get something for their troubles. The good news is that Carroll’s perhaps Punto-plus at the plate -- his lowest OBP mark in the past four seasons was .355. And given that he’s a negligible extra-base threat, Target Field’s slugging-suppressing powers won’t matter to him. Placed in one of the two top slots in Minnesota's order, he ought to be an offensive asset, creating plenty of run-scoring opportunities for Joe Mauer and … well, other people, because on the long list of problems that Ryan is going to have to fix this winter, staffing next year’s lineup has to rank right at the top. Carroll’s a useful part, and one who can be moved around, but if he’s locked in at short, the Twins have locked in on a non-solution to their problems there.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

One of the neat things about this being such a fine season for pitching is that there are some great examples of incredible home-field dominance by moundsmen.

Angels starter Jered Weaver continued his remarkable season pitching in spacious Anaheim, lowering his ERA there to 1.38 after a win on Wednesday. (Good luck guessing who the last pitcher was to finish a season with at least 70 innings and a home ERA that low.) And Brewers ace Zack Greinke has not disappointed at Miller Park this season, where he puts a perfect 9-0 mark on the line on Sunday against the Cubs.

Those are impressive numbers for the statistical traditionalists, but it is Roy Halladay’s performance at Citizens Bank Park that may rank among the most amazing in the history of the sport. He’ll be pitching there again against the Marlins on Saturday.

Why is Doc’s performance so remarkable? Because of these three numbers in his 104 2/3 innings pitched: 102 strikeouts, eight walks and two home runs allowed. In the world of Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), a statistic that estimates ERA based on strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed, this translates to a 1.56 FIP. That’s stratospherically good.



Granted, the 2011 version of Citizen’s Bank Park is not playing as the hitter’s ballpark that it’s usually made out to be (check out ESPN.com’s Ballpark Factor page for more), but that troika of dominance still strikes us as a remarkable combination of numbers.

It got us to thinking about other sorts of home-field domination by pitchers. We circled back to the first full season after World War II ended (1946) and with the help of a few resources (including avid Baseball Today podcast listener Naveen) we came up with a few other examples.

How do you think Halladay, Greinke and Weaver compares to these?

Satchel Paige, 1952 St. Louis Browns
Paige had among the most divergent home-road splits of any pitcher ever. He pitched 70 1/3 innings at home, 67 1/3 on the road, and this is what he netted:

Home: 9-0, 1.27 ERA, 8 saves (though saves weren’t "official" stats then)
Road: 3-10, 4.95 ERA, 2 saves

These issues mirrored those of his Browns teammates. The team finished 42-35 at home, 22-55 on the road.

George "Red" Witt, 1958 Pirates
There have only been two seasons since World War II in which a pitcher threw at least 75 innings at home and posted a home ERA below 1.00. Witt’s 1958 season is one of them. It remains as a statistical memory of one of baseball’s forgotten all-time great prospects.



In 1958, Witt was recalled from the minors and was awesome, 9-2 in 18 games (15 starts) with a 1.61 ERA. He put on an amazing show in 10 appearances at Forbes Field, allowing seven runs (five earned) in 75 2/3 innings pitched (an 0.59 ERA), not allowing a home run.

Witt hurt his arm the next spring and the injury proved to be a career-wrecker. He went 2-13 with a 6.29 ERA over the next four seasons, though he did earn a World Series ring with the 1960 Pirates.

Sandy Koufax, 1964 Dodgers
We didn’t want to make this a list of pitchers who were overwhelmingly dominant regardless of venue, but felt we had to include Koufax. He’s the other of the two pitchers to post a sub-1.00 ERA at home, finishing 1964 at 0.85.

There’s a good debate over which Koufax home season was better. This one, or 1965. Here are the numbers; you be the judge:

1964: 12-2, 0.85 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 8.7 K per 9, 6.9 K per BB
1965: 14-3, 1.38 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 11.0 K per 9, 6.7 K per BB

Roger Nelson, 1972 Royals
Four of the five best seasons for home-ballpark WHIP since World War II were thrown by Sandy Koufax and Juan Marichal. The fifth was by Nelson (nickname "Spider") who allowed just 45 hits and 15 walks in 76 2/3 innings pitched in at Royals Stadium in 1972.

Nelson appears to have been the beneficiary of the ballpark’s spacious outfield. He allowed just three home runs (one every 25 innings) in Kansas City, yielding 10 (one every 9.6 innings) in other venues.

Nolan Ryan, 1972 Angels
There has been talk about how no one benefits more from his home ballpark than Weaver. But Weaver’s home-road statistical differentials pale in comparison to those for Ryan in Anaheim in 1972:

Home: 13-8, 1.07 ERA, .438 opp OPS, 220 K, 89 BB, 22 starts
Away: 6-8, 4.26 ERA, .694 opp OPS, 109 K, 68 BB, 17 starts

These splits raise about 15 different questions, most notably: How the heck do you lose eight games at home, pitching to a 1.07 ERA? Easy, actually, because he lost 1-0 twice, 2-0 twice, and 2-1 twice (his other losses were 3-0 and 4-3).

One last Ryan note from that season: From July 5 to August 9, Ryan made five home starts. In 42 innings, he allowed two runs (one earned) and 11(!) hits, striking out 58 and walking 21. He went 3-2 in those five starts, as this stretch included both of his 1-0 losses.

Steve Stone, 1979 Orioles
The Elias Sports Bureau directed us Stone’s way because of the odd form of his home dominance and a disparity in home-road split for which there may be no equal. Stone was 8-1 with a 1.97 ERA at Memorial Stadium, averaging just 4.6 K/9. Stone paid the price for the inability to overpower on the road, where he had a 6.66 ERA in the same number of starts he made at home (16).

Dwight Gooden, 1984 Mets
That’s not a typo. We’re listing the 1984 version of Gooden and not the 1985 version, partly at Naveen’s suggestion, because Gooden was amazing wherever he was pitching in 1985. In 1984, Gooden was a baseball phenomenon, akin to Fernando Valenzuela three years prior. He built a home-field advantage in the form of the K Corner fan base in Shea Stadium’s upper deck.

“It helped because if I got two strikes, on anything close, the hitter was going to swing, or the umpire was going to ring him up,” said Gooden, who averaged nearly 12 strikeouts-per-nine innings at home (and gave up only three home runs in 118 1/3 innings pitched) during an appearance at ESPN Thursday.

Orel Hershiser, 1985 Dodgers
Few outside Los Angeles may remember that Hershiser was 19-3 with a 2.03 ERA in 1985, partly because of Gooden’s 24-4, 1.53 ERA and partly because of what Hershiser did three seasons later. But Hershiser had one heck of a home run that 1985 season. He was 11-0 with a 1.08 ERA, allowing 16 earned runs and just four home runs in 133 1/3 innings pitched. That included one-hit shutouts of both the Padres and Pirates.

And yes, we’re listing a bunch of Dodger Stadium examples. Because we want to spread the wealth, we limited it to those two, which means omitting the great Valenzuela season in 1981.

Johan Santana, 2006 Twins
Santana was basically perfect in his home ballpark. He finished with a 12-0 mark and a 2.19 ERA. Santana was the first pitcher to finish a season 12-0 or better at home since Billy Pierce went 12-0 at Candlestick Park for the 1962 Giants, the first AL pitcher to do so since Boo Ferriss was 13-0 (with a 3.85 ERA) for the 1946 Red Sox.



Santana’s home winning streak ended up at 17 games, but it is not the longest in modern major league history. Ray Kremer won 23 in a row for the Pirates in 1926-1927.

Josh Johnson, 2010 Marlins
To find a pitcher with comparable home ballpark dominance to Halladay, you have to go back to … last season. In 103 1/3 innings at Sun Life Stadium, Johnson struck out 127, walked 21, and yielded just two home runs. At 1.54, his FIP actually comes out slightly better than Halladay’s. But there’s a big difference between doing that sort of thing in the soon-to-be-abandoned Marlins home ballpark, which usually doesn’t rate homer-friendly and doing it in Citizens Bank Park.

Honorable Mentions: Courtesy of Naveen, a few others of a ridiculously good home-field advantage nature: Juan Marichal (1966, 1969 Giants), Bert Blyleven (1974 Twins), Jon Matlack (1978 Rangers), Bob Tewksbury (1992 Cardinals), Roger Clemens (1997 Blue Jays), Kevin Brown (1999, 2000 Dodgers), Jake Peavy (2008 Padres) and Tim Lincecum (2009 Giants).

Lastly our trivia answer: Mike Morgan was the last pitcher to finish a season with a home ERA that matched or bettered where Weaver is now. Morgan must have gotten the benefit of Wrigley Field a few times. He finished with a home ERA of 1.38 for the 1992 Cubs.

Mark Simon is the Baseball Research Specialist for ESPN Stats and Information. He thinks 1986 is the best baseball season ever. Follow Mark on Twitter @msimonespn and the Mets blog at ESPNNewYork.

So, Thomas Neumann of Page 2 sent me this picture of a Sports Illustrated cover, listing all the millionaire players from 1985. I think Thomas was working on a career retrospective of John Denny or something, I'm not sure. (OK, he actually interviewed Mike Schmidt.) Anyway, it got me thinking: What if we compare the highest-paid players from 1985 to the highest-paid players of 2011 ... and find out if teams are smarter than they were in 1985. After all, front offices know much more than they used to, right? With all the advanced metrics out there, all the Ivy League dudes making the decisions and so on, you'd expect smarter moves being made by front offices.

Let's take the top 25 players from that 1985 cover, the top 25 highest-paid players of 2011 and check their Wins Above Replacement level (WAR) from Baseball-Reference.com. For 2011, we'll using their current WAR prorated to the entire season.

1985 Top 25 Highest-Paid Players
1. Mike Schmidt ($2.1M): 5.3 WAR
2. Jim Rice ($2.1M): 1.1 WAR
3. George Foster ($1.9M): 1.5 WAR
4. Dave Winfield ($1.7M): 2.8 WAR
5. Gary Carter ($1.7M): 6.7 WAR
6. Dale Murphy ($1.6M): 5.3 WAR
7. Bob Horner ($1.5M): 1.8 WAR
8. Rickey Henderson ($1.5M): 10.0 WAR
9. Eddie Murray ($1.4M): 6.0 WAR
10. Bruce Sutter ($1.3M): -0.1 WAR
11. Ozzie Smith ($1.3M): 5.7 WAR
12. Jack Clark ($1.3M): 3.3 WAR
13. Robin Yount ($1.3M): 1.7 WAR
14. Pedro Guerrero ($1.3M): 7.8 WAR
15. Rick Sucliffe ($1.3M): 2.8 WAR
16. Fernando Valenzuela ($1.2M): 5.6 WAR
17. Goose Gossage ($1.2M): 2.6 WAR
18. Tim Raines ($1.2M): 7.5 WAR
19. Steve Kemp ($1.2M): -0.2 WAR
20. Steve Carlton ($1.2M): 1.2 WAR
21. Andre Dawson ($1.1M): 2.0 WAR
22. Keith Hernandez ($1.1M): 4.9 WAR
23. Mario Soto ($1.1M): 3.6 WAR
24. Andre Thornton ($1.1M): 0.0 WAR
25. Fred Lynn ($1.1M): 2.0 WAR

Total salary: $34.8 million.
Total major payroll in 1985: About $264.7 million.
Percentage of total payroll: 13.1 percent.
Total WAR: 90.9.

2011 Top 25 Highest-Paid Players
1. Alex Rodriguez ($32.0M): 5.3 WAR
2. Vernon Wells ($26.2M): -1.4 WAR
3. CC Sabathia ($24.3M): 4.6 WAR
4. Mark Teixeira ($23.1M): 3.9 WAR
5. Joe Mauer ($23.0M): -0.5 WAR
6. Johan Santana ($21.6M): Injured
7. Todd Helton ($20.3M): 3.9 WAR
8. Miguel Cabrera ($20.0M): 6.7 WAR
9. Roy Halladay ($20.0M): 9.2 WAR
10. Ryan Howard ($20.0M): 2.5 WAR
11. Carlos Beltran ($19.3M): 5.1 WAR
12. Carlos Lee ($19.0M): 3.0 WAR
13. Alfonso Soriano ($19.0M): 1.2 WAR
14. Carlos Zambrano ($18.9M): 2.8 WAR
15. Torii Hunter ($18.5M): -0.7 WAR
16. Barry Zito ($18.5M): -0.5 WAR
17. Jason Bay ($18.1M): 0.0 WAR
18. Ichiro Suzuki ($18.0M): 0.5 WAR
19. Josh Beckett ($17.0M): 9.2 WAR
20. A.J. Burnett ($16.5M): 2.3 WAR
21. Matt Holliday ($16.3M): 5.1 WAR
22. Michael Young ($16.1M): 1.8 WAR
23. Roy Oswalt ($16.0M): 3.7 WAR
24. Jake Peavy ($16.0M): 0.7 WAR
25. John Lackey ($15.9M): -2.5 WAR

Total salary: $493.6 million.
Total major payroll in 2011: About $2.786 billion.
Percentage of total payroll: 17.7 percent.
Total prorated WAR: 65.9.

FINAL ANALYSIS

Major league owners in 2011 are paying a higher percentage of their total payroll to the top 25 players and receiving far less production. Even if you account for better seasons the rest of the way from the likes of Joe Mauer and Ichiro Suzuki and Torii Hunter and John Lackey, the 2011 group wouldn't come close to matching the 1985 group in total WAR.

What's amazing is to look at the 2011 list and realize how many of those guys were never superstar players: Vernon Wells? Carlos Lee? Torii Hunter? Michael Young? A.J. Burnett? Barry Zito? Please. Good players at one point, never superstars.

Another way to look at it: Of the top 25 position players in B-R's WAR in 2011, only ONE (Miguel Cabrera) is one of the top-25 highest-paid players. In 1985, nine of the top 25 position players were among the 25 highest-paid players.

Also, in 2011, 10 of the top-25 highest-paid players are pitchers -- who inherently are more risky. Of those 11, five have spent time on the DL this season.

So, nice job major league owners and general managers! You're collectively, umm ... well, let's just say that Vernon Wells isn't worth $26.2 million.

Follow Dave on Twitter @dschoenfield and check out the SweetSpot Facebook page.

From 1979 through 2006, the Houston Astros were one of baseball's best and most consistent franchises. They suffered just six losing seasons and made the playoffs nine times. They finally reached their first World Series in 2005, but that was primarily an aging club at the end of a long run of success. Jeff Bagwell was done, Craig Biggio and Roger Clemens were old, Andy Pettitte would return to the Yankees and Morgan Ensberg never repeated his big season.

And the talent dried up. The Astros are on their way to their fourth losing season in five years and will likely lose more than 90 games for the first time since 1991. As Buster Olney wrote in his blog today, with Drayton McLane selling the team to Jim Crane, the new ownership group knows it has to pay more attention to player development.

1. A string of bad drafts. Former scouting director David Lakey nailed his first two first-round picks, drafting Lance Berkman in 1997 and Brad Lidge in 1998, but the Astros haven't drafted a first-rounder since who has developed into a solid major leaguer. (Time will tell, of course, on recent picks like Jordan Lyles and Delino DeShields Jr.) The Astros only had one top-10 pick from 1993 through 2007 (Chris Burke, 10th overall in 2001), which doesn't help, of course. The team also forfeited its first-round picks in 2003 (for signing Jeff Kent), 2004 (for signing Andy Pettitte) and 2007 (for signing Carlos Lee). It's hard to fault the Kent and Pettitte signings, but Lee has been both expensive and now unproductive.

Every team misfires in the draft but the Astros have had a long string of misfires. In 2005, under scouting director Paul Ricciarini, they were picking 24th and selected pitcher Brian Bogusevic, who was later converted to an outfielder. Matt Garza was the next pick and Colby Rasmus went later in the round. With the 23rd pick in 2006 they took high school catcher Max Sapp, who hit .224 in three seasons in the minors and then developed meningitis, which ended his career. Even before contracting meningitis, the Astros had shown their doubts about his future big-league status, drafting catcher Jason Castro in the first round in 2008. Two picks after Sapp, the Angels selected another high school catcher, Hank Conger, now playing well as a rookie. But the big blows were a string of drafts from 2000 onward that produced few big leaguers -- guys who should be in their primes right now.

2. McLane refused to spend on the draft, sticking to the MLB recommended slot bonuses. For example, the team failed to sign third-round pick Drew Stubbs in 2003; he later became a first-rounder of the Reds. Castro, drafted 10th overall in 2008, was taken one pick before Justin Smoak, whom most scouts rated much higher. Smoak signed for a bonus $1.5 million more than Castro.

McLane always operated the franchise like a mid-market team, instead of one playing in the sixth-largest metro market in the U.S. Under McLane, the Astros ranked in the top 10 in payroll in the majors just twice -- sixth in 2006 and eighth in 2009. Maybe there isn't quite enough fan interest in Houston to allow the Astros to play with the big boys -- even during their great run in the late '90s and early '00s, they reached a peak attendance level of fifth in the NL.

3. The Venezuelan pipeline shut down. Whether through deploying fewer resources, not spending money or just signing the wrong guys, a once fruitful operation in Venezuela -- arguably the best in the majors -- has returned little talent in recent years. Among the players Houston signed out of Venezuela: Richard Hidalgo, Bobby Abreu (although he was lost in the expansion draft), Carlos Guillen, Johan Santana (lost in the Rule 5 draft), Freddy Garcia and Melvin Mora.

4. Bad deals. The Carlos Lee -- six years for $100 million in 2007 -- was a bad deal at the time, an overrated RBI guy with mediocre OBPs who played poor defense. As predicted, it's become an albatross and he'll still be making $18.5 million in 2012. The team drafted Ben Zobrist and later traded him to Tampa Bay for Aubrey Huff. That's 68 games of Huff before he left as a free agent.

Crane will take over officially sometime this summer. He's got a lot of work ahead of him.

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Where Felix Hernandez is concerned, it’s easy to ditch hope and faith and start demanding the Mariners get down to business and resolve what their King’s ransom is. Jim Caple responded to those calling for Seattle to trade its ace by suggesting its time everyone stops treating the bad clubs like they're farm systems for the rich teams. Plus, those who think Seattle is better off trading Hernandez might want to be careful what they wish for. Consider the packages received from this short, non-comprehensive list of A-list exchanges from the last decade:

2010

• Phillies trade Cliff Lee to the Mariners for J.C. Ramirez, Phillippe Aumont and Tyson Gillies: This was for a full year of Lee. Nobody’s a slam-dunk deal-winner more than a year later. Aumont should be a good reliever someday, but Gillies is still struggling with hamstring woes that have kept him from becoming the leadoff prospect he was made out to be. Ramirez is putting up good numbers in a repeat spin at Double-A, but his slider’s MIA, taking his strikeout rate with it (nine in 32 innings).
• Mariners trade Cliff Lee to the Rangers (with Mark Lowe) for Justin Smoak, Josh Lueke, Matthew Lawson and Blake Beavan: The Mariners were only dealing away a few months of Lee’s time before free agency, but were also surrendering the draft picks his departure would inevitably bring. Lawson’s already gone (dealt for Aaron Laffey), but Smoak’s living up to his billing as a top prospect, and Beavan should help round out a rotation someday. Lueke’s off-field jail time and on-field struggles have made him a source of embarrassment. A merely decent package for a three-month rental of an ace.
• Astros trade Roy Oswalt to the Phillies for J.A. Happ, Brett Wallace and Anthony Villar: Houston paid for the privilege of making this deal happen, giving the Phillies $11 million to offset Oswalt’s 2011 salary, because this wasn’t just a season-ending rental. This was a humiliatingly bad deal, even if Happ sticks as a mid-rotation filler for the four seasons he’s under Astros control, and even if Wallace winds up being an adequate bat for first base. Villar is hitting in Lancaster in the Cal League.
• Blue Jays trade Roy Halladay to the Phillies for Michael Taylor, Travis d’Arnaud and Kyle Drabek: A reasonable exchange, because the Phillies could put together a financial package to make Doc happy, while the Jays got at least one premium talent. Drabek looks like he’ll be a quality big-league starter for years to come, while d’Arnaud is a 22-year-old strong-armed receiver dealing with the tough jump to Double-A. Taylor was swapped for Brett Wallace, who was subsequently converted into outfield speedster Anthony Gose to help the Astros’ end of the Oswalt exchange.

2009

• Indians trade Cliff Lee to the Phillies for Carlos Carrasco, Jason Knapp, Jason Donald and Lou Marson: Donald and Marson make for little more than nice reserves, so this deal boils down to the two pitchers’ upside for a year and a half of Lee. Knapp came over with a bum shoulder that needed repair, but has been excellent in the Sally League this spring, while Carrasco’s a reasonable mid-rotation starter.

2008

• Twins trade Johan Santana to the Mets for Deolis Guerra, Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey, and Carlos Gomez: An unmitigated disaster, but Santana’s role in forcing the Twins’ hand via his no-trade rights to get himself the multi-year deal he coveted with New York was a critical factor. Mulvey and Humber are both out of the organization, the toolsy Gomez (now with the Brewers) may never hold a regular job in center and Guerra may never get past Double-A.

• Indians trade CC Sabathia to the Brewers for Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley, Zach Jackson, and Rob Bryson: Not a lot of wow in this exchange, because LaPorta seems to have recovered enough at the plate to kill the Brad Komminsk comparisons as a potential all-time washout, while Brantley’s a serviceable outfield starter. All this for almost three months of Sabathia, and no draft picks? It makes the Mariners’ trade of Lee last year look good by comparison.

2005

• Diamondbacks traded Randy Johnson to the Yankees for Javier Vazquez, Brad Halsey, Dioner Navarro and cash. This was equal parts about the Big Unit’s cost and the dissatisfaction with Vazquez after his initial flop in the Bronx, but the Snakes got some payback by getting Chris Young from the White Sox in their own Vazquez package deal.

2003

• Diamondbacks traded Curt Schilling to the Red Sox for Brandon Lyon, Jorge De La Rosa, Casey Fossum, and Michael Goss: In retrospect, this salary dump didn’t turn out as badly for the Snakes as it looked at first blush, but that’s mostly because De La Rosa did eventually establish himself -- six years later, and on the Rockies’ watch. Lyon has a career, but Fossum was a top prospect who didn’t pan out.

2002

• Indians trade Bartolo Colon (and Tim Drew) to the Expos for Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, Lee Stevens, and the ubiquitous Cliff Lee: A flat-out disaster, but from the other side of the equation. Omar Minaya grabbed for headlines without landing an actual ace, at the low, low, low price of handing the Tribe a trio of blue-chip talents. Every team trying to trade an ace can dream of getting a package this good, but a deal this awful comes along once in a generation, and there are no more Expos to keep alive the memory of the other side of this disaster, let alone entertain Clevelanders with their lamentations.

The good news for the Mariners is how Hernandez is not like these others: He's under contractual control through 2014, so he’s not a rental, and at the age of 25, these next four seasons should be prime campaigns worthy of a real premium. His $58 million salary for 2012-2014 might seem like a deterrent to getting a deal done, but that’s still below the coin it would have taken to buy a King on the open market in any of the recent starter-starved pools of free agents.

If anything, to get a sense of what Hernandez might bring in a deal, you might want to compare the King’s value to that of Matt Garza. The Cubs traded a five-player package of worthwhile prospects to the Rays to acquire three seasons of a talented pitcher in the middle of his career. That’s what Jack Zduriencik would have to use as his measure, because if history’s any guide, the M’s GM shouldn’t be interested in moving his ace, just to move the expense of employing him.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.