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As if Phillies fans didn't have reason enough to be exasperated with the way the first month-plus of action has gone for their club, over on Crashburn Alley, Bill Baer has come up with a visual presentation of how Jonathan Papelbon has basically gone underutilized in the Phillies' bullpen, sitting by unused as key in-game situations get handed to just about everybody else associated with the organization, Philly Phanatic-inclusive. If you're looking for a great example for how the obsession with accumulating saves instead of saving leads can pervert reliever pitcher usage patterns, Bill's given you one here. Be ready for a vigorous discussion on the points, but be ready: Bill knows his stuff, especially where the Phillies (and their dissatisfactions) are concerned. Check it out!

First base: Trouble in Philadelphia. In Buster Olney's blog today , he quotes Washington Post writer Adam Kilgore, who emailed with Jayson Werth. "After walking off the field feeling nauseous knowing my wrist was broke and hearing Philly fans yelling 'You deserve it,' and, 'That's what you get,' I am motivated to get back quickly and see to it personally those people never walk down Broad Street in celebration again," Werth wrote to Kilgore. Look, I don't like to criticize fans of specific teams. I think most fans are pretty much the same: You support your team when it wins and you don't when it loses. Obviously, Philadelphia fans have a bit of a reputation. I've argued with friends who are Phillies fans that I was a little dismayed that fans apparently booed Ryan Howard as he lay in a crumpled heap after grounding out to end the Division Series loss to the Cardinals; they insist they were just booing the team. And maybe it was just a few bad apples yelling at Werth, and not fair to indict an entire fan base. And, yes, we've seen fans in ballparks across the country rip opposing players. I've seen Mariners fans boo A-Rod and toss dollar bills at him, years after he left Seattle. I've heard Yankees fans yell unmentionable things at opposing players. But ripping a player as he leaves the field with a serious injury -- a player who once helped you win a World Series! -- is pretty classless. Phillies fans do a great job supporting their team. I've never been to a park where so many fans wore team jerseys and shirts to the game. They've led the NL in attendance the past two seasons and lead again. Phillies fans are passionate and care. But that wasn't the best way to channel that passion.

On the field, the Phillies lost for the fourth straight game that Roy Halladay started, although Halladay pitched well and his velocity was up. They lost in the ninth when Jonathan Papelbon served up a three-run homer to pinch-hitter Jordany Valdespin -- his first major league hit. That's the sixth game the Phillies have lost in the ninth inning or later, although the first of those that Papelbon actually pitched in. So at least the good news is that Papelbon at least entered in a close game.

Second base: Twin killing. It's hard to believe the Twins won 94 games just two seasons ago. At 7-21, they're bad and looking worse. After losing again to Jered Weaver, they've lost 12 of 14 and are hitting .112 over their past six games. Joe Mauer ranks just 10th among catchers in OPS, the staff ERA is 5.70, it's allowed the most home runs in the AL and the Twins have two home runs all season from their infielders. It's ugly. This looks like a team that could lose 110 games.

Third base: Matt mashes. Matt Kemp went 3-for-3 to raise his average to .406. With 12 home runs, he has as many as the Padres and nearly as many as the rest of his teammates combined (13). I wonder who the last player to outhomer an entire team was? When Babe Ruth hit 54 home runs in 1920, he famously hit more than each of the other seven AL team.

Home plate: Tweet of the day. The Mariners rallied for three runs in the bottom of the ninth to beat the Tigers 3-2, ruining Doug Fister's fine performance as he returned from the DL with seven shutout innings (Jim Leyland removed him after 73 pitches). The Mariners are now 4-0 against the Tigers, leading to this tweet:

The Tigers must think the Mariners are the best team in baseball

— Jeff Sullivan (@LookoutLanding) May 8, 2012

What a day in baseball on Wednesday! Eric Karabell and myself could have done a two-hour Baseball Today podcast. Here are some highlights of a jam-packed show. Eric even tricked me into comparing Jose Altuve to Al Kaline and Alex Rodriguez. OK, maybe I did that to myself.

1. We discuss Jered Weaver's no-hitter, of course, and wonder how many more no-hitters we'll see this season.

2. We discuss that wild, improbable game in Atlanta between the Phillies and Braves. Are there reasons to be concerned about Roy Halladay?

3. That's only the tip of the iceberg of a crazy night -- bad calls, Jason Giambi's walk-off homer, Jake Arrieta dominating the Yankees and more.

4. We answer some emails about Mat Gamel's injury and other stuff.

5. Finally, we look ahead to Thursday's action and I declare that Jose Altuve is a batting title contender.

Check it all out on Thursday's Baseball Today podcast, and don't miss Friday's show with Mark Simon and awesome guests Jayson Stark and Tampa Bay Rays pitching coach Jim Hickey.

If you've seen the video of the controversial triple play from the Padres-Dodgers game on Sunday, you'll see umpire Dale Scott initially raise his hands indicating a foul ball on Jesus Guzman's bunt attempt. As the ball then rolled fair, Scott reversed his call and Dodgers catcher A.J. Ellis proceeded to start a triple play, snuffing a potential rally in the ninth inning of a tie game.

Dave Cameron of FanGraphs breaks down the play and calls for the game to be replayed from the point of Guzman's at-bat, his argument being that Padres' couldn't have been expected to run once Scott raised his arms, and also pointing out that one game in the expanded playoff system could be the deciding game on one team making the playoffs and another missing them.

At issue: Judgment calls cannot be protested (and thus overturned). Was this just a bad judgment by Scott -- reversing his call in the middle of a play -- or do the Padres have a right to protest based on a rules interpretation (that the play should have been ruled dead once Scott raised his arms)? To confuse matters, it was a fair ball. As reader Dave Alden wrote on FanGraphs, "Letting it stand is unfair to the Padres. Pretending it never happened would be unfair to the Dodgers. There is no perfect solution."

There is about zero chance that if the Padres do end up protesting that the call would be reversed and the game replayed from that point on (as what happened with the famous George Brett pine-tar home run game). But Dave raises an interesting point, and if the Dodgers sneak into the playoffs by a game, maybe they can give a playoff share to Mr. Scott.

• Jon Weisman argues that there is no reason to replay the game.
• Joey Matschulat's headline about the Rangers says it all: The best team in the American League.
• The Cardinals honor the Rally Squirrel on their World Series championship rings. Best ring ever?
• Fire Brand of the AL ask a simple poll question: Is Bobby V already screwing things up?
• The Nationals have a 1.99 ERA, and if not for the Dodgers, could be the biggest story in baseball right now.
• Michael Baumann has a suggestion for Jonathan Papelbon.
• It was not a fun weekend for the Royals.
• The Angels aren't supposed to be 3-6. And Albert Pujols isn't supposed to be homerless.
• Mop-Up Duty examines Eric Thames' start for the Blue Jays.
• Jack Moore looks at the Brewers' problems preventing runs so far.
• Michael Pineda will throw a bullpen session on Tuesday.
• Will Clark is drinking beer and blowing kisses. Can he still play first base?

Considering nothing much really happens, spring training is awesome.

Especially when we get days with fun stories like today. So it's time for our first ever "You Weigh In On Crazy Spring Training Stories Of The Day" topics!

1. Jonathan Papelbon says Phillies fans are smarter than Red Sox fans.

After talking about what it was like playing in Boston, Papelbon added, "The Philly fans tend to know the game a little better, being in the National League, you know, the way the game is played." Now, I'm not exactly sure how he knows this. Or why being a National League fan would necessarily make you smarter. Digging into the mind of Jonathan Papelbon is not something even the craftiest of sabermetricians would attempt to do. Unfortunately, there isn't a good way to test out Papelbon's theory. (Actually there is: Create a quiz. Make some of the questions generic, like knowing the infield fly rule or the number of ways to reach first base. Make some of the questions team-specific. Make all quiz takers register as a fan of a specific team. And then tabulate the results.)

What do you think? Both groups of fans are passionate. Both love the game and respect their team's history. But which group knows baseball better? You weigh in.

2. Will Venable says Yu Darvish has no humility.

So here's the story. Venable doubled high off the center-field wall in Darvish's debut on Wednesday. Darvish, via his translator, said something like the wind carried it, plus Arizona has dry air and that "It didn't seem like a ball that was hit that squarely."

Asked about the comment, Venable said he hit the ball about as well as he could hit a ball and that maybe nobody has ever squared up off Darvish. "I would have liked to hear a little more humility from the guy, Venable added. "To each his own. He's a confident guy. Of course I didn't square up a ball because he's Yu Darvish."

So what do you think? Is Darvish just another cocky pitcher with an attitude and a bad dye job? Does he need to show more humility? Weigh in below in the comments section.

3. Yankees bring in a motivational speaker to ... well, motivate.

Manager Joe Girardi brought in motivational speaker Donnie Moore to inspire his club. Moore tore apart a soda can and phone book with his bare hands! And then twisted a frying pan into a little ball of metal.

So, will this help the Yankees win more games in 2012? Is the power of motivational speaking going to push Robinson Cano to a new level and turn Michael Pineda into a Cy Young winner? Will A-Rod break his wrist trying to rip apart a phone book? Or is this simply a sign that spring training has way too many hours with nothing going on?

Weigh in below in the comments section.

We got the gang back together for Tuesday’s edition of the Baseball Today podcast, as Keith Law and I ranted about this and that in the baseball world. Among the topics we discussed:

1. Yu Darvish is still not officially a Texas Ranger, but we expect a contract will be worked out before Wednesday’s deadline. So who is Darvish and why is he so important? Hey, at least he doesn’t have to pitch Opening Day! The Rangers aren't messin' around!

2. Of course, some other moves have happened since the last time we conversed with Mr. Law, including the challenge trade between the Yankees and Mariners. Young players dealt for one another? Never happens! We talk Jesus Montero and Michael Pineda.

3. What are the Colorado Rockies doing? Neither of us quite understands their offseason agenda, from the Michael Cuddyer signing to Monday’s Seth Smith trade for obvious flyball-prone pitchers. Yeah, that should work out swimmingly. But at least they've got Jamie Moyer.

4. Ryan Madson or Jonathan Papelbon, whom would you rather have for the next four years? Sadly, I knew KLaw’s answer before I asked the question. But I had to ask anyway.

5. Finally, Keith, who is not known for ever expressing his opinion, rants about the Hall of Fame and those that choose the members. You’ll want to hear this rant.

So download and listen to Tuesday’s Baseball Today. It’s not only the return of Law, but bias cat. No, really.

This is back-of-the-napkin stuff ... but fun back-of-the-napkin stuff. As we wait to see if Prince Fielder does land in Washington, let's check out the state of the NL East. We'll go position by position and rank the players. Then we'll come up with a final tally (five points for first, four for second, etc.)

Catcher
1. Brian McCann, Braves
2. Wilson Ramos, Nationals
3. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
4. Josh Thole, Mets
5. John Buck, Marlins

Phillies fans will storm the bastille over this one and say I'm underestimating Ruiz's ability to call a game, but I think Wilson Ramos has a chance to be something special. He hit .267/.334/.445 as a rookie, spending most of the season at just 23 years old. The thing that bodes well is that his walk rate improved from 4 percent in Triple-A in 2010 to 8.7 percent last season. And to think they got him from the Twins for Matt Capps. Ruiz is an underrated player -- he's posted a .376 OBP the past three seasons -- but Ramos' power and potential for improvement put him at No. 2 behind McCann.

First base
1. Freddie Freeman, Braves
2. Ryan Howard/Jim Thome, Phillies
3. Ike Davis, Mets
4. Gaby Sanchez, Marlins
5. Adam LaRoche, Nationals

Yes, there's huge value for the Nationals in signing Prince Fielder. With Davis and LaRoche coming off serious injuries and Howard out for at least a couple months, I have to give the top nod to Freeman. Sure, maybe he'll succumb to the dreaded sophomore jinx, but baseball history also tells us that players often make a huge leap from age 21 to age 22. If Davis hits like he did in the 36 games he played last year (.302/.383/.543) then he's an All-Star candidate, but while he says he's "good to go" for spring training, we'll have to wait to see how his ankle responds. As for Sanchez, he's a lukewarm cup of coffee on a 32-degree day.

Second base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Danny Espinosa, Nationals
3. Dan Uggla, Braves
4. Daniel Murphy, Mets
5. Omar Infante, Marlins

I put Utley first with some hesitation: His OPS totals since 2007 read .976, .915, .905, .832 and .769. Still, that .769 figure is better than Uggla or Espinosa produced in 2011, and Utley still carries a good glove. It's defense and predicted second-season improvement that pushes Espinosa over Uggla. Murphy doesn't hit many home runs or draw many walks, so most of his offensive value resides in his batting average. If he hits .320 again, he's a good player. If he hits .290, then he's still better than Infante.

Third base
1. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
4. Chipper Jones, Braves
5. Placido Polanco, Phillies

If healthy, Zimmerman is one of the best players in the league. Ramirez and Wright were once part of that discussion, but no longer. Both players had the worst years of their careers in 2011. Will Wright rebound with the fences moved in at Citi Field? Will Ramirez bounce back and handle the transition to third base? Your guess is as good as mine. Chipper is aging gracefully, playing through injuries but still putting up respectable numbers. If this is his last season, I hope he goes out in style.

Shortstop
1. Jose Reyes, Marlins
2. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
3. Ruben Tejada, Mets
4. Ian Desmond, Nationals
5. Tyler Pastornicky, Braves

Not much debate here. Tejada posted a .360 OBP in 2011 as a 21-year-old. He doesn't have any power, but I believe the Mets are in good hands at shortstop. The same can't be said about Desmond, who must improve his defense (23 errors) and approach at the plate (139/35 SO/BB ratio). Pastornicky hit .314 in the minors last year, including .365 in 27 games in Triple-A. He puts the ball in play and has some speed, but won't hit for much power or draw many walks, so he'll need to hit for a good average to hold the job.

Left field
1. Michael Morse, Nationals
2. Martin Prado, Braves
3. Logan Morrison, Marlins
4. Domonic Brown/John Mayberry, Phillies
5. Jason Bay, Mets

We have to consider Morse the real deal by now, don't we? Although he comes with a few caveats: That 126/36 SO/BB ratio is a concern; so is his .344 average on balls in play, which ranked 15th in the majors (can he repeat that figure?); and finally, he plays left field a bit like a fire hydrant. By the way, how bad is this group defensively? Morrison may have even less range than Morse, Brown looked terrible in right field with the Phillies last year and Bay isn't getting paid $16 million because he's adept at running down balls in the gap. Actually, I'm not sure what he's getting paid for.

Center field
1. Shane Victorino, Phillies
2. Michael Bourn, Braves
3. Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins
4. Andres Torres, Mets
5. Roger Bernadina, Nationals

This seems pretty straightforward other than the ongoing raging debate between Andres Torres fans and Roger Bernadina fans.

Right field
1. Mike Stanton, Marlins
2. Hunter Pence, Phillies
3. Jason Heyward, Braves
4. Jayson Werth, Nationals
5. Lucas Duda, Mets

Mike Stanton ... 2012 National League MVP? Too soon? I'm just saying don't be surprised if it happens.

No. 1 starter
1. Roy Halladay, Phillies
2. Josh Johnson, Marlins
3. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
4. Tim Hudson, Braves
5. Johan Santana, Mets

Is there a more important player in the majors in 2012 than Johnson? The Marlins fancy themselves contenders but they need a healthy Johnson headlining the rotation. After leading the NL with a 2.30 ERA in 2010, he had posted a 1.64 ERA through 10 starts in 2011 before shoulder tendinitis shelved him for the season. He's been throwing and long tossing and is expected to be 100 percent for spring training. Strasburg has the ability to be just as dominant as Halladay and Johnson, but the Nationals will likely monitor his innings in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery.

No. 2 starter
1. Cliff Lee, Phillies
2. Gio Gonzalez, Nationals
3. Mark Buehrle, Marlins
4. Tommy Hanson, Braves
5. R.A. Dickey, Mets

This is a terrific group of No. 2 starters, as even the knuckleballer Dickey posted a 3.28 ERA in 2011 (and 3.08 ERA over the past two seasons). Hanson has Cy Young ability, but his own shoulder issues from late last season raise a red flag.

No. 3 starter
1. Cole Hamels, Phillies
2. Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals
3. Anibal Sanchez, Marlins
4. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
5. Mike Pelfrey, Mets

Zimmermann is the sleeping giant in the Nationals rotation. His strikeout/walk ratio of 4.0 ranked 11th-best among starters in 2011 and another year beyond his own TJ surgery should help him develop the stamina to improve on his second-half numbers (2.66 ERA before the All-Star break, 4.47 after). I'm not a big Jurrjens fan; he's a good pitcher, but he's now battled injuries two seasons in a row and his strikeout rate took a big dip last season.

No. 4 starter
1. Brandon Beachy, Braves
2. Vance Worley, Phillies
3. John Lannan, Nationals
4. Jonathon Niese, Mets
5. Ricky Nolasco, Marlins

You could draw this list out of a hat. Beachy and Worley surprised many with their exceptional rookie seasons; I believe both are for real, as both seemed to deliver better-than-advertised fastballs. Now they just have to prove they can become seven-inning pitchers instead of five or six. Niese is an excellent breakout candidate in 2012: He throws hard enough for a lefty (90-91), gets strikeouts, doesn't walk too many, gets groundballs. In fact, his FIP (fielding independent pitching) was 3.36 compared to his actual ERA of 4.40. It wouldn't surprise me to see him win 15 games with a 3.40 ERA. It would surprise me if Nolasco does that; 2008 is starting to look further and further in the rear-view mirror.

No. 5 starter
1. Mike Minor, Braves
2. Carlos Zambrano, Marlins
3. Dillon Gee, Mets
4. Chien-Ming Wang, Nationals
5. Joe Blanton/Kyle Kendrick, Phillies

If you're talking depth, the big edge here goes to the Braves, who also have prospects Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado and Arodys Vizcaino ready to step in. Big Z is a nice gamble by the Marlins as a No. 5 starter, you could do worse.

Closer
1. Craig Kimbrel, Braves
2. Jonathan Papelbon, Phillies
3. Drew Storen, Nationals
4. Heath Bell, Marlins
5. Frank Francisco, Mets

As dominant as Kimbrel was in winning Rookie of the Year honors (14.8 K's per nine), he did blow eight saves. But Papelbon is just one season removed from his own season of eight blown saves. Factor in Kimbrel's K rate and slightly heavier workload, and I'll give him the slight nod. Bell will have to prove himself away from the friendly confines of Petco Park, so Storen rates the clear No. 3 here.

Bullpen
1. Braves -- Jonny Venters, Eric O'Flaherty, Kris Medlen, Cristhian Martinez, Anthony Varvaro
2. Marlins -- Steve Cishek, Edward Mujica, Mike Dunn, Ryan Webb, Randy Choate
3. Nationals -- Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett, Henry Rodriguez, Ryan Perry, Tom Gorzelanny
4. Phillies -- Antonio Bastardo, Michael Stutes, Dontrelle Willis, David Herndon, Jose Contreras
5. Mets -- Bobby Parnell, Jon Rauch, Pedro Beato, Tim Byrdak, Manny Acosta

The top four teams all project to have solid-to-excellent pens. Venters and Clippard are arguably the two best set-up guys in baseball. Cishek is the rare sidearmer who can get lefties out as well as righties and he allowed just one home run in 54 innings as a rookie. The Phillies don't need many innings from their pen and while Willis could be a terrific lefty killer (lefties hit .127 off him in 2011), Bastardo must rebound from his late-season fatigue.

Intangibles
1. Marlins
2. Phillies
3. Braves
4. Nationals
5. Mets

New stadium, new free agents, new manager, new uniforms -- I view all of that as a plus for the Marlins. The playoffs left a sour taste for the Phillies' veteran-heavy squad and those guys will want nothing more than to win a sixth straight division title. The Braves have plenty of incentive after their late-season collapse. The Nationals are young but have no chip on their shoulder. But if they sign Prince ...

The final tally
1. Phillies, 58 points
2. Braves, 56 points
3. Marlins, 49 points
4. Nationals, 48 points
5. Mets, 29 points

And the napkin says the Phillies are still the division favorite. What, you want to bet against Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels?

Justin Verlander is hoping to become the first pitcher to win the MVP Award since Dennis Eckersley in 1992, and the first starting pitcher since Roger Clemens in 1986. Jacoby Ellsbury is hoping to win the MVP Award despite the late-season collapse of the Red Sox (hey, don’t blame him!). Jose Bautista is hoping his big offensive numbers carry the day even though his team finished 81-81. Curtis Granderson is hoping to win despite a September slump that would leave his .262 batting average as the lowest ever for an MVP hitter. And then there’s Miguel Cabrera, who put up monster numbers in the shadow of his teammate.

Who will win? Nobody knows. Despite a storyline that seemed to focus on him, will a historical bias against pitchers hurt Verlander? There is also a strong historical bias in favor of players on playoff teams, which will help Verlander and Granderson, but work against Ellsbury and Bautista. Will Ellsbury lose some votes to teammates Adrian Gonzalez and Dustin Pedroia, who also had strong seasons? Here’s how the SweetSpot bloggers voted (14 points for first, nine for second, eight for third, etc.)

Jose Bautista, Blue Jays: 296 points (15 first-place votes)
Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox: 256 points (8)
Miguel Cabrera, Tigers: 177 points
Justin Verlander, Tigers: 131 points (1)
Curtis Granderson, Yankees: 114 points (1)
Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox: 44 points
Ian Kinsler, Rangers: 26 points
Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox: 23 points
Alex Gordon, Royals: 12 points
Evan Longoria, Rays: 8 points
CC Sabathia: 7 points
Michael Young, Rangers: 6 points

* * * *

Let’s do the center fielders first, since that’s the easiest comparison. Granderson starts with an advantage of nine more home runs (41 to 32), five more triples (10 to 5), three more hit-by-pitches (12 to 9) and 33 more walks (85 to 52). That’s 87 more bases. But Ellsbury had 20 more doubles (46 to 26), 53 more singles (129 to 76) and four fewer double plays hit into (12 to 8). That’s plus-97 bases for Ellsbury. Ellsbury stole 39 bases (caught stealing 15 times) and Granderson stole 25 bases (10 caught stealing), a minor edge for Ellsbury. Granderson used up 463 outs, Ellsbury 479. Run it through the mixer and Baseball-Reference.com estimates that Ellsbury created 139 runs, or 7.8 runs per 27 outs; Granderson created 121 runs, or 7.0 runs per 27 outs. Granderson played in a slightly higher run-scoring environment.

Some more numbers: Ellsbury hit .366/.420/.691 with runners in scoring position, Granderson hit .242/.303/.516. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Ellsbury hit .400, Granderson hit .208. When the score was tied, Ellsbury had a .900 OPS, Granderson .820. No matter how you slice things, I can’t come up with a way that proves Granderson had the better year at the plate. And the deeper you dig, the more you uncover that Ellsbury played his best in clutch situations and close games. Yankees fans may accuse me of bias or being a Red Sox fan, but such is not that case. Ellsbury was the more productive offensive player.

Then you get to the defense. By all accounts, Ellsbury played a better center field in 2011. I’m not sure he deserved his Gold Glove (Austin Jackson and Peter Bourjos were superb), but the defensive metrics also say he was far superior to Granderson.

Look, both were dynamic players, power-speed combinations at an important defensive position. But I think it’s clear that Ellsbury had the superior season. The one caveat in regard to MVP voting, of course, is that Granderson’s team made the playoffs and Ellsbury’s did not. But don’t blame Ellsbury for Boston’s collapse -- he hit .358 with eight home runs in September. But some voters will hold the collapse against him; to me, it's failed logic to say that Ellsbury is less of an MVP candidate because Jonathan Papelbon couldn’t close out a lead on the final night of the season and Dan Johnson hit a home run off Cory Wade.

* * * *

OK, Ellsbury versus Jose Bautista is a little tougher. Bautista starts off with 11 more home runs (43 to 32) and 80 more walks (132 to 52). He had an awesome year at the plate. But Ellsbury had three more triples (5 to 2), 22 more doubles (46 to 24), 43 more singles (129 to 86), three more hit-by-pitches (9 to 6). Both players grounded into eight double plays. Bautista had 25 more bases, although Ellsbury closes that gap with a 39-to-9 edge in stolen bases. The big difference is Ellsbury used up 479 outs and Bautista 375. Run it through the mixer and Baseball-Reference estimates that Bautista created 149 runs, or 10.7 per 27 outs; Ellsbury created 139 runs, or 7.8 per 27 outs. Both guys played in similar run-scoring environments. Given Ellsbury’s production over the same number of outs as Bautista had, he would have created 108 runs, 41 fewer than Bautista.

But Ellsbury did have the advantage of playing nine more games and, since he hit leadoff, receiving more plate appearances (and thus more chances to affect the game). And then we have to factor in defense: Ellsbury is a good center fielder (+6 runs better than average according to Defensive Runs Saved, +15.6 runs by Ultimate Zone Rating), while Bautista rates as a below-average right fielder in both systems (-1 and -8.6), although he did rate well at third base in his limited time there (+6 and +3.8).

If you remember, Bautista was on fire early on, hitting .363 with 20 home runs through May. He slowed down after that, hitting .257 with 12 home runs in 65 games after the All-Star break. His walk rate actually remained consistent throughout the year, so it doesn’t appear that he started chasing pitches, but maybe frustration did set in from not getting a lot of pitches to hit. And for those who think he was part of the sign-stealing allegations that came out, his home/road splits were actually nearly identical: 1.063 OPS at home, 1.047 on the road. Breaking down some of Bautista’s other numbers, one jumps out at me: He hit .307/.523/.760 in “close and late” situations.

It was an impressive season, MVP-worthy.

If you go by WAR (Wins Above Replacement), it’s essentially a dead heat: If we average FanGraphs WAR and Baseball-Reference WAR, Bautista is at 8.4, Ellsbury 8.3.

But I give the edge to Ellsbury. The season-long excellence matters, but so does his combination of playing center field, hitting leadoff and putting up awesome numbers at the plate. He created runs and prevented runs, while playing an important up-the-middle position. If you watched the Red Sox regularly, he was clearly the best player on the team, the dynamo at the top of the order.

* * * *

Obviously, I’m more of a numbers guy. But even I admit: Sometimes we get too caught up in the numbers. In 10 years, in 25 years, when we think of the 2011 season, what will we remember most other than the dramatic World Series and the greatest final day in baseball history? I think we’ll remember Verlander, the year he turned from flamethrower to pitcher, the year he made The Leap, when we began thinking of him as a guy with Hall of Fame potential, a pitcher who could win 300 games and join that inner circle of greatness. Now, maybe all that won’t happen, but that doesn’t mean the 2011 regular season didn’t belong to Justin Verlander. I think if you ask managers and general managers around baseball if they could have one player from the 2011 season, the majority would say Verlander.

Which is why, I admit, I’m conflicted to say that I think Jacoby Ellsbury deserves the 2011 American League MVP Award.

My unofficial ballot:

1. Ellsbury
2. Verlander
3. Bautista
4. Cabrera
5. Granderson
6. Pedroia
7. Robinson Cano
8. Gonzalez
9. Alex Avila
10. Longoria

Reports are in that the Philadelphia Phillies have signed Jonathan Papelbon to a four-year, $50 million contract, pending a physical.

As I wrote earlier this week, I'm not a big fan of paying big money for closers, as I think smart organizations can find alternative means to building a bullpen. The Phillies, of course, have deep pockets and there is little doubt Papelbon is one of the best relievers the game ... right?

Well, how do you define "one of the best"? The Phillies are defining him as "second-best" (behind only Mariano Rivera), at least in terms of salary. But here are Papelbon's rankings over the past three seasons among all relievers with at least 150 innings:

• 19th in batting average
• 16th in on-base percentage
• 18th in slugging percentage
• 23rd in ERA

OK ... so maybe he isn't quite as awesome as we think. To be fair, he was better in 2011 (at least up until the final game) than 2010 and 2009, throwing more strikes and posting the second-best strikeout rate of his career. Overall, however, he wasn't as dominating the past three seasons as his first three seasons. If he pitches like he did in 2011, he's an elite closer; if he pitches like he did in 2010, when he seemed reluctant to challenge hitters and he served up seven home runs, he's less than elite.

So why the $50 million contract? Well, he's a proven Closer, with a capital C. He has the fifth-most saves over the past three seasons and the second-most ever of any pitcher in his first seven seasons. He's shown he has the necessary guts and fortitude to handle the ninth inning, unlike a mere middle reliever. Heck, he's even closed out a World Series. (Never mind that three of the past 10 World Series champs had unproven closers, including two rookies.) Of course, in the past six biggest games he's pitched in -- the 2008 and '09 playoffs and the final game of 2011 -- he's just three for six in save opportunities, as Red Sox fans well know.

OK, that's a little harsh. Papelbon is a very good pitcher. He's been handled carefully in his career (never pitched 70 innings in a regular season) and is as good a bet as any reliever to remain healthy the next four seasons. I don't think he makes the Phillies any better than they were in 2011 or pushes them any closer to a World Series title (Ryan Madson was excellent), but he's a safe, if expensive, bet to do the job well.

As for the Red Sox, they can go after Madson or be content to slide Daniel Bard into the closer role and use the Papelbon money to go after two or three middle relievers to rebuild a bullpen drastically in need of depth, or a rotation drastically in need of another arm. All things considered, losing Papelbon may end up being a positive for Boston.

As a little follow-up to Wednesday's post on Ryan Madson being a risky signing, I wanted to add a few more comments. It's important to note that the Phillies, with an aging roster, have a more urgent need to win now. Thus, if they believe Madson to be an integral key to their chances of winning the World Series, they should be more willing to take on the long-term risk for an immediate return. And it may be a necessary evil to overpay to secure Madson's services.

The question then becomes: Do they need Madson? The two parts to that question: (A) Is there an obvious internal solution if Madson leaves? (B) Do you need a great closer to win the World Series?

For the first part, the answer is probably no, although Antonio Bastardo was dominant in a set-up role for most of last season before tiring down the stretch and Michael Stutes showed potential as a solid middle guy. Either could probably do a passable job as the closer, but maybe not enough to make Charlie Manuel comfortable (although don't forget the Phillies reached the World Series in 2009 despite Brad Lidge going 0-7 with an ERA over 7.00).

For the second part, I want to begin with a somewhat arbitrary list of the best closers over the past 15 seasons -- those who did it year after year, the kind of closer you'd be theoritically comfortable giving a long-term contract of around $40 million:

1. Mariano Rivera: Four World Series titles (plus one as a set-up guy).
2. Trevor Hoffman: Reached one World Series (lost).
3. Billy Wagner: Never reached World Series.
4. Joe Nathan: Never reached World Series.
5. Francisco Rodriguez: Won one World Series (as a set-up guy).
6. Jonathan Papelbon: Won one World Series.
7. Francisco Cordero: Never reached World Series (in fact, has never appeared in a postseason game).
8. Robb Nen: Reached two World Series, won one.
9. Troy Percival: Won one World Series (only year in postseason).
10. Armando Benitez: Reached one World Series (lost).

Leaving Rivera aside for a moment due to his one-of-a-kind status (and keep in mind he blew potential series-closing saves against the Indians in 1997, the Diamondbacks in 2001 and the Red Sox in 2004), here's the postseason record of the other nine guys: 40 saves, 25 blown saves. Even removing Benitez (a couple of his blown saves came as a set-up guy), you get 36 saves and 19 blown saves. In other words -- even the best closers have failed a third of the time in the postseason. There's no guarantee Madson would be any different from this group.

Now ... that doesn't mean you don't need or want a good closer to win a World Series. If we combine the regular-season statistics of the past 10 World Series champion closers, we get a 2.12 ERA with 261 saves and 25 blown saves. In the postseason, the 10 relievers went a combined 4-1, with a 1.26 ERA and 49 saves in 56 opportunities. This group of relievers were terrific during the regular season and pretty dominant in the postseason.

BUT ... the list includes two rookies, a midseason trade acquisition, a 24th-round draft pick and two converted minor league catchers. Closers can come from anywhere and World Series closers tend to be guys on a hot streak as much as a proven commodity. Here's the list of those 10:

2011 Cardinals: Jason Motte. Converted minor-league catcher. Became the team's third closer of the season in late August. Stats: 5-2, 2.25 ERA, 9 saves.

2010 Giants: Brian Wilson. A 24th-round draft pick who spent two years in middle relief and held on to his closer's job despite a 4.62 ERA in his first year in the position in 2008. Stats: 3-3, 1.81 ERA, 48 saves.

2009 Yankees: Mariano Rivera. The greatest closer of all time. Stats: 3-3, 1.76 ERA, 44 saves.

2008 Phillies: Brad Lidge. Acquired from Astros for prospect Michael Bourn. Stats: 2-0, 1.95 ERA, 41 saves.

2007 Red Sox: Jonathan Papelbon. Fourth-round pick, became the team's closer his first full season. Stats: 1-3, 1.85 ERA, 37 saves.

2006 Cardinals: Adam Wainwright. A rookie reliever pressed into closing games when veteran Jason Isringhausen became unavailable due to injury. Stats: 2-1, 3.12 ERA, 3 saves.

2005 White Sox: Bobby Jenks. Another rookie, he had six saves during the regular season after Dustin Hermanson was injured. Stats: 1-1, 2.75 ERA, 6 saves.

2004 Red Sox: Keith Foulke. A free-agent signing in 2004 after saving 43 games with the A's in 2003. Stats: 5-3, 2.17 ERA, 32 saves.

2003 Marlins: Ugueth Urbina. A midseason trade acquistion from the Rangers for a prospect named ... Adrian Gonzalez. Stats: 3-0, 1.41 ERA, 6 saves (with Marlins).

2002 Angels: Troy Percival. Veteran closer had converted from catcher in the minor leagues. Stats: 4-1, 1.92 ERA, 40 saves.

Does this mean the Phillies shouldn't sign Madson or the Red Sox shouldn't sign Papelbon? Not necessarily; I think the question is more: Is the money that would be spent for a good closer worth it? You need a good closer to win a World Series, but there's no guarantee your good closer will actually push you to a World Series title, if that makes sense. It's a little bit of a luck thing to a certain extent -- hope you get lucky and that a rookie steps up at the right time (Wainwright, Jenks) or that your good middle reliever elevates his game in October (Motte) or that your GM can make a deal if necessary (Urbina). Sometimes it's merely hoping that a guy who is consistent has the season of his life (Lidge).

Me? If money is an issue, I'd try and spend the $40 million in other places.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

When Alexander Cartwright drew up the first modern baseball rules in 1845, I don’t believe he envisioned players with $100 million contracts or games played on fake grass inside domed stadiums.

He certainly didn’t envision nights like this.

Four games with playoff implications, three going to the wire, three blown saves in the ninth, two games going extra innings, one game tied with maybe the most dramatic, clutch pinch-hit home run in history -- certainly one from a guy batting .108 -- and the final game ending on a blown save in the bottom of the ninth, completing the most colossal September collapse the sport has ever seen.

The clock had struck midnight. Jonathan Papelbon was about to close out Boston’s 3-2 victory to secure at least a spot in the wild-card tiebreaker game on Thursday. He’d struck out Baltimore’s Adam Jones and Mark Reynolds. But Chris Davis lined the first pitch he saw into the right-field corner, chugging into second with a double. Nolan Reimold fisted a high fastball into right-center that bounced over the wall for a game-tying double. And then Robert Andino hit a soft liner to left. Carl Crawford, Boston’s $142 million free agent, raced in, got to the ball inches before it hit the ground … and couldn’t hang on.

The Orioles had won. Collapse on the verge ...

Three minutes later, just after the result from Baltimore had been posted on the scoreboard at Tropicana Field, in the bottom of the 12th inning, Evan Longoria hit a low, screaming liner into the left-field corner that cleared the fences by a few inches. Maybe the most stunning few inches baseball fans have witnessed in a long, long time.

The Rays had won. Comeback complete.

We spent the past three weeks sweating and cheering every home run, wild pitch, bad call, bullpen blow-up, broken bat, diving catch, clutch hit, rally-killing groundout, triple play and rookie from Yale. Then this night arrives, a gift from the baseball gods.

How does this happen? How does a team summon up the mental fortitude to look at the scoreboard in the bottom of the eighth inning, see that you’re losing 7-0, know that your rival for the wild card is leading 3-2 ... and win? Yes, the Rays weren’t facing David Robertson or Mariano Rivera -- Joe Girardi wasn’t going to use his best relievers with the Yankees’ first playoff game set for Friday -- but I don’t care if they were facing guys from Scranton or Staten Island, it was an amazing turn of events.

They scored six runs in the eighth, capped by Longoria’s mammoth three-run shot deep into the left-field bleachers. But when Johnny Damon popped up with a runner on second to end the rally, you felt the energy sucked out of the Rays. That was their last chance.

Right?

It wasn’t. They had one more. With two outs in the ninth, Joe Maddon summoned the red-bearded Dan Johnson to the plate. He had begun the season as the team’s first baseman, ah hopeful anchor to the middle of the lineup along with Manny Ramirez, but hit so poorly he was sent down to the minors.

Back in 2008, Johnson had hit another dramatic ninth-inning, pinch-hit home run for the Rays in their first run to the playoffs, tying a game the Rays won later in the inning. Some called that win the most important of the season, the biggest win to date in Rays history. Johnson is one of those baseball lifers; he got some time in the big leagues a few years ago with the A’s, but has spent more time in Triple-A than the majors. He played in Japan in 2009, but the Rays brought him back last season as Triple-A insurance.

And Maddon sent him to the plate. He was hitting .108 in 83 at-bats. He also had zero hits in September. Cory Wade got him in the hole at a ball and two strikes, throwing his changeup that drifts away from left-handed hitters. He threw a ball and Johnson fouled off a fastball. Wade threw another changeup, but this one didn’t move. Johnson hooked it down the right-field line, over the wall -- just barely -- and into history.

By the way: That home run Johnson hit in 2008? It came off Jonathan Papelbon.

It’s easy to say this is what we love about baseball, but it’s true: Anybody can be the hero. It’s a theme I’ve written several times throughout the season. Evan Longoria is the biggest hitter in the Tampa Bay lineup, and he delivered a game of a lifetime. But he’ll get many chances to do that again. We’ll see him in the playoffs on Friday, we’ll see him in many All-Star Games and many Octobers to come. He’s starting to build his legend.

But Dan Johnson? He’s not even the 25th man on the Tampa roster. He’s more like the 32nd or 33rd or 34th man.

And that’s how baseball works. Papelbon and Crawford, big names with big salaries, can’t do the job in one ballpark. In another, Dan Johnson gets us to extra innings. Jake McGee gets out of a two-on, nobody-out jam in the top of the 12th. Evan Longoria swings … the ball heads toward the foul pole … it seems to will itself over the fence … a player is mobbed at home plate. Unthinkable elation. Unthinkable heartache.

What a night, my baseball friends.

From the unfortunate Braves-Pirates ending in the wee hours of Wednesday morning to actual breaking news during the taping of the show, Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast with myself, Keith Law and guest Jim Bowden was certainly an interesting one. Among the highlights were:

1. Jim wasn’t just sad (like me) about the apparent umpiring mistake that cost America’s Team, but he sounded downright angry! Also, his reaction to the Colby Rasmus trade and other potential deals should not be missed.

2. Keith also shares his opinions on a very interesting past 24 hours in baseball, but rather than focus solely on the umpire mistake, the managers deserve blame for the 19-inning affair as well.

3. The Cardinals certainly make a statement with the Rasmus trade, but it seems like a short-sighted one.

4. Why is investing in relief pitchers for the long-term generally a poor idea? KLaw has the answer and Jonathan Papelbon fans might not like it.

5. Tim Lincecum versus Cole Hamels highlights a big night of baseball, but we point out the other starting pitchers you need to keep an eye on Wednesday.

Plus: Excellent emails, Lance Berkman versus Aubrey Huff, pitchers headhunting and concussions, stats we like, Winnie the Pooh and a whole lot more on a busy Baseball Today podcast for Wednesday. Download now!

Here are the top five reasons -- and there are like 324 reasons in all -- why you should listen to Tuesday's Baseball Today podcast with myself and Mark Simon!

1. ESPN contributor and former GM Jim Bowden makes his Baseball Today debut, discussing many topics, including the frailty of closers, Evan Longoria leading off and how the Buster Posey collision should have been avoided. That answer might surprise you!

2. Mark discusses a landmark Memorial Day around the big leagues, and whether weather might adjust statistics from here on out.

3. It's Power Rankings day, and let's just say one of us regrets jumping on the Cleveland Indians bandwagon. I should have known better! We list our top 10 and bottom five.

4. How is a pair of pants like Oliver Perez? I concede this is an odd one, but hang with us and you'll understand.

5. The Tuesday night schedule is full of young hurlers with bright futures, but we also discuss the ESPN battle in St. Louis. Are you taking Ryan Vogelsong or Chris Carpenter. Think about it ...

Plus: Excellent emails, brothers hitting home runs, how the umpires added to the Twins' discontent, today's birthdays, the Royals change closers and Bartolo Colon just keeps on keepin' on. All this and more in a packed Baseball Today podcast for Tuesday!

As always, plenty to talk about in the wonderful world of baseball. Topics ranged from Adrian Gonzalez to Jair Jurrjens to Josh Tomlin to Jose Bautista to Brandon Belt to baseball's best closers. The question came up in relation to Atlanta rookie closer Craig Kimbrel. I suggested he might be a top-3 closer already ... and I'll stick to that. Here are my top five closers right now:

1. Mariano Rivera, Yankees: Had a couple hiccups, but still has a WHIP under 1.00 and hasn't allowed a home run.

2. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox: He struggled with location last season, but he seems back on his game with a 21/2 SO/BB ratio in 16 2/3 innings.

3. Craig Kimbrel, Braves: With 34 K's in 20 2/3 innings, his strikeout rate leads closers (even better than Carlos Marmol). The control isn't precise (10 walks), but he's dominating right now.

4. Drew Storen, Nationals: He looks like the real deal with a 0.71 WHIP, 1 HR in 23 innings and a 19/5 SO/BB ratio.

5. Neftali Feliz, Rangers: Injured earlier and a little rusty coming back, but should be fine once he gets in gear.

Worth considering: Brian Wilson, Giants (not as dominant this year, but worked very heavily last season); Heath Bell, Padres (benefits from home park); Joakim Soria, Royals (hasn't been as overpowering so far); Marmol, Cubs (unhittable, but still wild); Ryan Madson, Phillies (looking good so far).

The Minnesota Twins and Boston Red Sox battled for 11 innings on Monday night, and in the end, Carl Crawford’s double high off the Green Monster plated Jose Iglesias with the winning run in a 2-1 victory.

Twins manager Ron Gardenhire, apparently waiting to take the lead before using closer Matt Capps, and not wanting to use Joe Nathan on back-to-back days, was left with somebody named Jim Hoey on the mound. With one out, Hoey walked Jed Lowrie -- not necessarily a surprise since Hoey walked 34 in 52 2/3 innings in the minors last season. Iglesias came in as a pinch-runner and Crawford hit a 3-2 pitch off the wall.

We’re going to see a lot of games like that this season: low-scoring affairs decided in the late innings. With scoring down, games will be tight, and with close games, late-inning bullpen work may be more important than ever. And if you’re relying on Jim Hoey in tie games, chances are you may be 12-21.

Let’s do a quick overview of the state of 'pens around baseball.

Three best bullpens on contenders

1. San Francisco Giants: The unheralded secret weapon of last year’s champs, the bullpen has picked up where it left off, with Javier Lopez, Sergio Romo, Ramon Ramirez and Guillermo Mota throwing lights-out. Closer Brian Wilson blew his first save chance but has since converted 11 in a row, despite a little wildness. The team has lefty-righty balance, with lefties Jeremy Affeldt and Dan Runzler adding solid depth.

2. Florida Marlins: Several arms were added to the Marlins' 'pen after last season’s shaky performance and so far they have a 2.59 relief ERA, second only to San Diego’s. I believe in this group, although stellar setup man Clay Hensley was just placed on the DL with a bruised rib. Closer Leo Nunez appeared in 17 of the team’s first 32 games, so watch his usage carefully.

3. New York Yankees: Yes, Mariano Rivera had that little burp, but he’s back on track. Setup man Rafael Soriano has struggled, but I project he’ll turn it around. Joba Chamberlain is throwing better than he has in years, and underrated David Robertson has one of the nastiest curves you’ll see. The 'pen has allowed just five home runs in 95 innings. The big question is whether Boone Logan will prove to be a reliable lefty in the absence of Pedro Feliciano.

Bullpen doing it with smoke and mirrors right now

Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays have a 2.69 bullpen ERA, third-best in the majors, and have allowed opponents a .203 batting average. They’ve allowed just 61 hits in 87 innings despite a poor 51/34 strikeout/walk ratio. Some of that is attributable to their defense, but the low strikeout rate means that .203 average will be difficult to maintain. And maybe you believe in Kyle Farnsworth more than I do.

Three bullpens I’m worried about

1. Texas Rangers: The Rangers will be fine at closer once Neftali Feliz returns, but the rest of the ‘pen looks shaky, as it has allowed 16 home runs in just 94 innings and has a poor 66/43 strikeout/walk ratio. Forty-somethings Darren Oliver and Arthur Rhodes are looking more their age and have surrendered three home runs apiece, and Darren O'Day is on the 60-day DL with a torn labrum in his hip.

2. Detroit Tigers: The team’s best reliever has been Al Alburquerque, and with a name like that, he'd better be good, because we want him to last a long time. Closer Jose Valverde is always a tightrope, but the rest of the setup crew, including high-priced free agent Joaquin Benoit, has looked inconsistent.

3. Milwaukee Brewers: Brewers relievers already have nine defeats. They have a few good arms in closer John Axford and Zach Braddock and Brandon Kintzler, but control issues have been a problem so far and lack of depth could be an issue.

Two awesome bullpens if you only need two guys

1. Atlanta Braves: Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters are dominant (and Eric O'Flaherty provides a nice third guy). We’ll have to see whether Venters holds up after pitching 79 games and 83 innings last year, but so far he’s been even better than he was in 2010, with a 0.70 WHIP.

2. Boston Red Sox: Daniel Bard’s raw numbers are great (well, except that 0-3 record, which is not exactly a non-important notation). Jonathan Papelbon is back with an 18/2 strikeout/walk ratio. But new acquisitions Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler have been disastrous, leaving a gaping hole after the top two.

Bullpen that may actually be OK

St. Louis Cardinals: The Cards are tied with the Brewers with nine bullpen losses, three by deposed closer Ryan Franklin. And while the team may not have a set closer (Fernando Salas has the role for now), there are some good arms here. Jason Motte, Mitchell Boggs and rookie Eduardo Sanchez all average more than 93 mph with their fastballs, and Salas throws strikes. Mix in LOOGYs Trever Miller and Brian Tallet, and I think Tony La Russa will figure out roles that turn this into one of the better 'pens in the NL.

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