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Stuff ...

• Baseball America has lists of the 10 youngest players in each full-season league. Mariners pitcher Erasmo Ramirez was the youngest player to make a major league roster, with a May 2, 1990 birthdate. Giancarlo Stanton is still one of the 10 youngest players in the National League.
• Walkoff Woodward looks at what happened to Justin Verlander and the Tigers in Wednesday's ninth inning.
• Neftali Feliz used his changeup a lot in his first start and he was pretty awesome.
• Dodger Thoughts author Jon Weisman has a piece in Variety exploring how TV networks can justify bidding billions to broadcast baseball games.
• Tristan Cockcroft has a fun look at early season paces. Yes, small sample size. It's still a fun to read.


• ESPN Insider Dan Szymborski looks at which closers are used most effectively -- ie, in high-leverage situations -- by their managers. Kudos to Mike Scioscia and Bruce Bochy.
• Franklin Rabon examines Dan Uggla's reverse-platoon split. Since 2009, Uggla is slugging nearly 50 points higher against righties.
• Our new Blue Jays blog looks at J.P. Arencibia's pitch-framing abilities. Pitch-framing is sort of the new trendy thing in defensive analysis, a big reason the Rays signed Jose Molina this offseason. Obviously, baseball people have always talked about this, but pitch f/x data allows catchers to be studied in this skill.
• One scout still believes Daniel Bard belongs in the bullpen.
• The Padres recalled Joe Wieland and Insider Eric Karabell looks at whether he can help the Padres (and fantasy owners).
• The Brewers have broken off talks with Zack Greinke about a contract extension.
• Will Freddy Galvis become a good player for the Phillies? Or is he ultimately just a younger version of Wilson Valdez? Michael Baumann ponders the question.
• Danny Duffy had a nice start for the Royals on Tuesday. OK, it was against the A's, but there many positives signs for the young left-hander.
• Jon Shields thinks the Mariners should start playing John Jaso more instead of Miguel Olivo. Jaso has yet to appear in game. The knocks against Olivo? He has trouble catching the ball and getting on base. Otherwise ... he's awesome!
• Nick Faleris looked at Brian Matusz's first start of the season for the Orioles. Remember, this is a guy everyone was calling a future ace after 2010.
• Baseball Prospectus has a list of 10 players who should receive contract extensions.
• Jorge Posada will throw out the first pitch at the Yankees' homer opener on Friday.
• Finally, Miami columnist Dan LeBetard was on ESPN Radio talking about the Ozzie Guillen situation.

This is what will have American League pitchers and managers waking up in cold sweats all season long: Those stretches when Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder are both raking, eyes bulging as they pummel meaty fastballs over fences and into outfield seats.

Josh Beckett become the first pitcher to experience these forces of nature in action, as both hit two home runs off him in Detroit's 10-0 victory Saturday over Boston. Fielder hit one out to left field and a low, screaming bullet to right for his pair. Going the opposite way is nothing new for him; 11 of his 38 home runs in 2011 went to left or left-center. There were some concerns that Fielder would lose a few home runs moving from Miller Park to the more spacious environs of Comerica, so hitting one out to left is a good, early sign.

How dynamic is this pair? A season ago, Fielder hit .299/.415/.566 with 38 home runs; Cabrera hit .344/.448/.586 with 30 home runs. The last team with two players to hit 30 home runs with a .400 OBP? The 2006 Red Sox with Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz. Twelve teams since 2000 have had such a duo (or in the case of the 2004 Cardinals, three players):

2006 Red Sox: Ramirez, Ortiz
2005 Yankees: Alex Rodriguez, Jason Giambi
2004 Cardinals: Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen
2003 Yankees: Giambi, Jorge Posada
2002 Astros: Jeff Bagwell, Lance Berkman
2001 Rockies: Todd Helton, Larry Walker
2001 Cardinals: Pujols, Edmonds
2000 Cardinals: Edmonds, Mark McGwire
2000 Angels: Tim Salmon, Troy Glaus
2000 Astros: Bagwell, Moises Alou
2000 Mariners: Rodriguez, Edgar Martinez
2000 Giants: Barry Bonds, Jeff Kent

Of course, all of those pairs or threesomes did this during the high-offense steroids period. Six other teammates did it between 1995 and 1999. But before that? That previous team to have two such players was the 1969 Oakland A's with Reggie Jackson and Sal Bando. Throughout baseball history there have been only 34 such pairs. Here's another way to do this. Let's add OPS+ (adjusted on-base plus slugging percentage) as a third measuring stick. OPS+ adjusts a player's offensive production for home park and era. In 2011, Cabrera's OPS+ was 181, second in the American League. Fielder's was 164, fourth in the National League. Let's set a minimum of 30 home runs, .400 OBP and 150 OPS+.

This takes away some of steroids-era pairs and leaves us with 24 such teammates in baseball history. And six of those 24 were Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig.

And that, my readers, is the kind of company Cabrera and Fielder have the chance to join.

A few more notes from today's early games:

• Beckett served up five home runs, sending waves of sweats and swears throughout Red Sox Nation. He became just the fourth pitcher to allow five homers twice in his career, joining Tim Wakefield, Pat Hentgen and Jeff Weaver. Gordon Edes had a good piece on Beckett before his season debut, detailing his motivation for 2012. Beckett is a bit of an enigma, a guy usually viewed as an ace due to his postseason heroics with the Red Sox in 2007 and Marlins in 2003. But the facts also don't lie: He's finished in the top 10 in his league in ERA only twice, including last season with a 2.89 mark. Beckett has been homer-prone at various stages of his career, most notably in his first season with Boston, in 2006, when he gave up 36. It's only one start, of course, but considering the spring training thumb injury he insisted wasn't an injury, it puts Beckett on the early "keep an eye on him" watch list.
• Angels manager Mike Scioscia picked Game No. 2 to get disgruntled Bobby Abreu in the lineup, putting Abreu in left and moving Vernon Wells to center, sitting defensive whiz Peter Bourjos in the process. "I'm not calling this a day off for Peter, it's the second game, but it's a combination of that and trying to get some left-handed bats in the lineup," Scioscia told Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles. I can't imagine a more defensively challenged outfield pair than those two. Unable to see this game since I had the Red Sox-Tigers game as my local Fox broadcast, I tweeted Angels and Royals fans to ask how many of the 11 hits Dan Haren allowed fell just out of their reach. The consensus seemed to be two or three, although @dblesky wrote, "There were really only a couple. And one was glaring." It will be interesting to see how often Scioscia runs out this lineup, essentially to placate Abreu. I just don't see the Angels being a better team with that alignment and Bourjos on the bench.
• Zack Greinke had a dominant effort in the Brewers' 6-0 shutout over the Cardinals, allowing three hits in seven innings with no walks and seven strikeouts. I wrote this before the game, but here's why Greinke is a good Cy Young pick. Especially impressive were Greinke's economical 91 pitches.
• Tweet of the day after Daniel Hudson and the Diamondbacks beat the Giants for the second consecutive game:
  

  Good way to start the season. Two mistakes and I paid for it. But a win is a win. #sweepthegiants tomorrow! #GoDbacks
  
  — Daniel Hudson (@DHuddy41) April 7, 2012

From the Astros' possible name change to Bobby Abreu to the Yankees' rotation to the Marco Scutaro trade to Tim Lincecum to the Reds to Brandon Morrow's new contract, we talked baseball and nothing but baseball on Tuesday. And somehow Jack Morris and Brad Radke kept getting brought up.

The thing they tell you about baseball is that it’s a marathon and not a sprint. This isn’t a game for sudden changes, rash decisions or riding a hot streak for the whole season. This is a game where only collapses are noticed, and even then they are usually a long, drawn-out process.

Yet, on one late, rainy September night, the marathon all but finished, it’s those precious last few hours that will decide everything. Will the Red Sox and Braves complete historic collapses? Will the Rays and Cardinals complete miracle runs?

We believe we’re in for a wild night. We want to believe we’re in for a wild night. Even if such anticipation often ends in predictable disappointment, maybe tonight won’t, maybe the possibilities that are there will come to pass. Maybe the Orioles will beat the Red Sox (again), maybe the Rays will come back against the Yankees, maybe Craig Kimbrel will blow the one save that really matters. We believe because baseball tells us it’s OK to believe, because Kirk Gibson showed us that you don’t need both legs to hit, and Jim Abbott showed us that you don’t need both hands to pitch.

We believe because we can.

* * * *

The season starts in March.

That alone should be telling; in the 85-year history of the old Yankee Stadium, no game was ever played in March.* Three seasons into the life of the new Yankee Stadium, and a crowd wearing so many layers it ends up waddling more than walking, packs into the concourses before the NCAA has yet to crown a men’s basketball champion.

The Yankees aren’t the only team to open on March 31; it’s a new thing they’re trying this season so that maybe the World Series ends before Halloween, the way it used to when you were still a child.** Still, while they’re introducing the 2011 Yankees, there’s some feeling this is a second-place team -- they missed out on Cliff Lee, missed out on Carl Crawford and signed Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, Russell Martin and Eric Chavez. There isn’t the certainty here there is in Boston, or in Philadelphia.

It’s perhaps strange to think the biggest move of Philadelphia’s offseason was the acquisition of one single pitcher. Sign Cliff Lee. Keep everyone healthy. Win. It’s a simple formula, and it works well enough to produce the best record in the majors, the only team with 100 wins.

Boston, though, is a different story.

*There was supposed to be a March opener in 2008, but the weather intervened.

**Although the World Series has kept happening at a later and later date, November baseball itself first came about after a week of the regular season was lost in the fallout of 9/11.

* * * *

If you lose the first game of a baseball season, it’s no big deal. Sure, you prefer to start on a high note, but even the best baseball teams in history have lost close to 50 games. Things happen. A pitcher has a bad day, the offense struggles to hit in the cold damp of early spring. So when the Red Sox lose their first game, there are no alarm bells ringing, no bridges or ledges to check. If Carl Crawford goes hitless in four at-bats -- with the hat trick -- you shrug your shoulders and wait for tomorrow.

When you lose the next game, however, and the game after that, and the one after that, and so on until you’ve been swept in the first two series you’ve played, you’ve gone from unconcerned to outright panic. It takes a while in baseball to notice trends; sabermetricians and statistics buffs will tell you that the ultimate sin in baseball analysis is falling victim to the fallacies of small sample size. One good start cannot outdo a season of poor ones (ask A.J. Burnett), and one poor start cannot undo a season of good ones (ask Justin Verlander). Oh-and-one isn’t a concern, but 0-6 is, and by the time you get to 2-10, you’ve become familiar with the maxim: You can’t win a pennant in April, but you can lose one.

By the time Sept. 28 arrives, there’s one overriding question regarding the Red Sox: What if they had won just a few more games in April? What if they had won just one more game during those long nights?

* * * *

The Red Sox aren’t the only team to struggle out of the gate.

The season’s already seven games old by the time the Rays take their first lead.

* * * *



On April 2, Erick Almonte plays in a major league baseball game. It’s his first major league game since 2003.

He has four at-bats, and in three of them, he doesn’t reach base. The other at-bat is a home run.

Bartolo Colon returns from a year out of the majors. He pitches 164.1 innings for the Yankees (the team with the endless payroll signs him for just $900,000) and posts a 4.00 ERA. The last time he threw even 100 innings in one season? 2005.

If the Yankees strike gold with Colon, what do the Giants find with Ryan Vogelsong?

In the six years from 2001 to 2006, Vogelsong, pitching for the Giants and Pirates, had just one season with an ERA under 5.00, and just two with an ERA under 6.00.

In 28 starts with the Giants in 2011, the 33-year-old Vogelsong’s ERA will finish at 2.71.

It’s the fourth-best ERA in the National League.

* * * *

On April 30, for the White Sox, Adam Dunn is hitting .160/.300/.267, with two home runs. It’s a slow start, but other players have April slumps too -- Nick Swisher hits just .226/.340/.286 in the season’s first month.

Swisher will ultimately recover from his slump, and end the season with an .822 OPS. It’s not an All-Star season, but it’s perfectly respectable, the type of season some teams would kill to have from just one of their hitters.

Adam Dunn, however, does not recover.

His final line of .159/.292/.277 is, in some respects, worse than his April line, a historically bad season for a hitter, especially a player known for perennially finishing with 40 home runs ends the season with just 11.

* * * *

Dunn doesn’t hit home runs in 2011, but plenty of other players do.

Jose Bautista, as if to prove that he’s not a one-year aberration, does a Barry Bonds impression in the first half and finishes the season with 43 home runs. Curtis Granderson has 41. Mark Teixeira and Matt Kemp both have 39.

Everyone knows Derek Jeter will get his 3,000th hit in 2011, they just don’t know when. They do know, however, that the 3,000th hit won’t be a home run.

Except, it is.

What’s more, the fan who catches it, Christian Lopez, who can ask for the world in return for that ball, asks for absolutely nothing.

Then, on another night: Jim Thome hits his 599th and 600th home runs in the same game, giving his fans in Minnesota a lone night to cheer.

* * * *



The last time the Pirates finished a season with a winning record was 1992 -- when a man named William Jefferson Clinton was on the Democrats’ ticket for the White House.

The Pirates had a rookie pitcher that year who did quite well, with an 8-1 record and an ERA of 2.14 in 13 games started. His name? Tim Wakefield.

In 2011, when Tim Wakefield will notch his 200th win, there are three separate occasions in July, where, for a total of five nights, the Pirates go to sleep in first place.

The Pirates are undone by a 19-inning marathon with the Braves, a game that Scott Proctor actually wins, a game that, believe it or not, doesn’t have a position player pitching for either team, a game that sees a combined 39 runners left on base ... a game that ends on a blown call at home plate.

Pittsburgh fades into the quiet summer night. The Braves linger. For a little while, anyway.

* * * *

After losing 97 games in 2010 the Diamondbacks are branded underachievers. That young crop of Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, Miguel Montero, et al, has failed to mature. The bullpen is so noxious that someone jokes that the next time the phone rings, the bullpen coach should just let it go to voicemail*.

Kirk Gibson, who might know a little something about believing, somehow figures it out. Or, rather, if he doesn’t figure it out, it’s under his watch that his players do.

Arizona starts to win, and then they win again, and again, and when San Francisco can’t overcome injuries to Buster Posey and Brian Wilson, the Diamondbacks sense an opportunity.

They bite.

*via @Haudricort

* * * *



After 2010, one might think the Diamondbacks learned their lesson about bullpens.

Relief pitchers are supposed to have short lifespans.

They are supposed to come up, throw fire, be untouchable for a season or two, be emphatic in their celebration, and then fade into a sort of obscurity, only being remembered for that one World Series they helped their team win -- or, more often, lose.

They are not supposed to stick around long enough for 600 saves.

Yet, on a September afternoon, in what has been an unlikely season for the Yankees, a season of roster patches and Curtis Granderson home runs, Mariano Rivera stands on the mound, notches save No. 2 602, the all-time record, and celebrates with a handshake and hugs with his teammates.

Jorge Posada has to push the Yankees’ closer back to the mound, and force him to enjoy the adulation he’s earned.

* * * *

If only the Red Sox had Rivera.

If only the Braves had Rivera.

On Sept. 5, the Red Sox (they don’t know it yet, but The Collapse has already started) have a seven-game lead over Tampa Bay for the AL wild-card spot. The AL East, with the Yankees leading by just 2.5 games, is not out of reach.

On Sept. 5, the Braves lead the Giants and Cardinals by 8.5 games for the NL wild-card berth. The Phillies are too good for the NL East title to be realistic, but the Braves have such a cushion on the wild-card that the playoffs seem inevitable.

Baseball, though, is a marathon, and no one sees trends right away. The Red Sox lose a game here, the Braves lose a game there.

It’s OK, though -- it would take a miracle for the Cardinals or the Rays or the Giants or the Angels to pose any sort of threat. The Rays waited too long to call up Desmond Jennings and Matt Moore. The Cardinals are too busy worrying about Albert Pujols’ impending free agency. It can’t happen.

You know it can’t happen. There’s no possible way. It’s just a September slump.

Until it’s not.

Until you look up one late September day and realize the Red Sox need the Yankees to beat the Rays, not just so that their cushion doesn’t get any smaller, but instead, for their very survival.

Until you look up one late September day and realize that the Cardinals might actually have an easier time beating the Astros than the Braves will have beating the Phillies.

Until you look up one late September day and realize that barely averaging three runs a game for a month, even in a year of depressed offense, isn’t going to cut it when the other team has Albert Pujols (and even when they don’t).

Until you look up one late September day and realize that the Yankees, having clinched everything there possibly is available to clinch in the regular season (playoffs, division, home field), the Yankees have nothing to play for except the pride of not seeing the Red Sox in the playoffs, and the Rays now have everything on the table.

Until you look up, and believe.

* * * *



So we believe.

We believe even as the Braves are just two outs away.

We believe even though the Yankees lead 7-0 lead in the eighth inning.

We believe even though the Red Sox have the Orioles down to their last strike.

There’s no Kirk Gibson one-legged home run on this night, no Jim Abbott no-hitter, but we don’t need them.

We have 13 innings in Atlanta, 12 in Tampa and nine in Baltimore, maybe the most dramatic of all.

We get a two-strike, two-out, bottom-of-the-ninth pinch-hit home run from Dan Johnson. We get a two-strike, two-out double from Nolan Reimold off Jonathan Papelbon.

We get a Robert Andino single, a Carl Crawford misplay, and an Orioles win, and then, not five minutes later, we get an Evan Longoria home run just to the right side of the left-field foul pole. A cheap shot, one might argue on another day. Not tonight.

This is the night of the baseball miracles. A month long in the making, a month long to notice, but tonight they’re here, right before our eyes.

We believe because it’s real.

* * * *



Matt Moore has had one career start. Just one, and he’s tapped to start Game 1 of the ALDS for Tampa Bay, with his team on the road, with his team facing the offense of the Texas Rangers, at Arlington. The Rays can’t possibly win this game. Moore can’t possibly succeed with this sort of pressure.

Until he does.

One game won’t make a career, but we believe in courage.

Josh Collmenter’s a rookie, too. He’s a rookie, and he’s on the mound with his team down two games to none. Win or go home, kid, it all hangs on you.

Seven innings, two hits, one run, and the Diamondbacks will live to play another game.

We believe in hope.

Jorge Posada is not a rookie.

The last season of his contract has been an unmitigated disaster, on the field and, for a time, off it, but Posada battles.

His .429/.579/.571 batting line in the ALDS is the best of any Yankees’ hitter. Better than Robinson Cano or Granderson, better than Jeter or Alex Rodriguez, better than Teixeira or Swisher.

We believe in fight.

The Phillies sail through the regular season. Pitching and more pitching, a Roy Halladay-Cliff Lee-Cole Hamels starting three is a dream rotation; the Phillies get spoiled even further with Vance Worley and the best team ERA in the majors.

With that staff, the last image of their season isn’t supposed to be Ryan Howard clutching his ankle after rupturing his Achilles, but that’s what it is.

We believe in unexpected.

The Brewers aren’t afraid of Nyjer Morgan or Yuniesky Betancourt or Mark Kotsay, even when other teams shy away, even when the narrative is about Morgan’s character or Betancourt’s defense or Kotsay’s (lack of) hitting. They aren’t afraid to trade for Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, even if it costs their entire farm system.

They have one season left to try to get Prince Fielder a World Series ring, the same Prince Fielder who hits a home run in the All-Star Game that will guarantee home-field advantage for whichever National League team makes it to the World Series.

If there is a season for the Brewers, this is supposed to be it.

We believe in going all-out.

Justin Verlander’s year has been so good that the debate isn’t whether or not he should win the Cy Young; it’s whether or not he should win the MVP. Yet, even with that performance, the move that puts the Tigers over the edge, that moves them from possible AL Central winners to probable American League contenders, is a trade for a pitcher who was 3-12 with a team that would go on to lose 95 games.

It isn’t Verlander to whom Leyland gives the ball in Game 5 of the ALDS; it’s Doug Fister.

We believe in second chances.

The World Series runners-up from 2010 have something to prove in 2011, and even while all the attention is on the Red Sox and the Phillies and the Yankees and the Brewers, the Rangers are still there, winning game after game.

This, we are told, is the Year of the Napoli. The Angels favored Jeff Mathis -- he of the career .194/.257/.301 batting line -- so Mike Napoli went to Texas instead, went to Arlington and posted a 171 OPS+ for the season, and then he kept hitting in the postseason, too.

Josh Hamilton’s story is such that if you pitched it as a Hollywood script they would tell you no, things like that don’t happen, that you can’t come all the way back from drug and alcohol problems to hit 28 home runs in the first round of the Home Run Derby in 2008 and then lead your team to the World Series in 2010 and 2011, that you can’t hit the extra-inning, go-ahead home run in the 10th inning of Game 6, and yet this is exactly what happens.

We believe in redemption.

The Cardinals are 10.5 games out in August and 8.5 back in September. Adam Wainwright doesn’t throw a single pitch for them all season. Ryan Franklin loses his job as the team’s closer and on June 17 Chris Carpenter is 1-7 with an ERA of 4.47. Matt Holliday loses his appendix and busts his finger; Albert Pujols breaks his wrist.

The Cardinals shouldn’t make the playoffs. They shouldn’t make the Phillies go five games, and then win because of Carpenter's complete game shutout (not when Tony La Russa’s managing, anyway). They shouldn’t beat the Brewers in Milwaukee, and they certainly shouldn’t have home-field advantage in the World Series.

They shouldn’t, but they do, and then they do more.

Albert Pujols echoes Reggie Jackson and Babe Ruth, hitting three home runs in one World Series game, arguably the best single-game offensive performance in postseason history.

In Game 6, the Cardinals are twice down to their last at-bat, twice down to their last strike, twice one pitch away from losing the World Series. Each time, the Cardinals come through, as though the idea of losing the game never occurs, and a team that loses its ace before Opening Day forces a Game 7 in the World Series.

Baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. This is what they tell you. One game can’t tell you anything, one game can’t make or break you, but this is what happens in the World Series. One game is all that stands between St. Louis and a World Series championship that few, if any, expected.

One game, and the Cardinals have Chris Carpenter on the mound.

We believe in impossible.

Rebecca Glass works for ESPN Stats & Information and is a contributor to ESPN New York's Yankees blog.

I was sure Alex Rodriguez was going to pop one out.

I was pretty sure Mark Teixeira was going to pop one out.

I knew Nick Swisher was going to knock one over the short porch in right field, probably down the line and into the first row.

That's what we expect from the New York Yankees, isn't it?

When the Yankees asked Joaquin Benoit to remove the big bandage that covered a zit or mosquito bite or whatever had infected his cheek like a small alien, you knew it was coming: Benoit would be rattled, he'd be thinking about exposing his sore to a national TV audience more than throwing strikes and the Yankees would win another big October game.

Band-Aid Gate. We all saw it coming.

And it almost did. Curtis Granderson reached out on a 3-2 pitch off the plate and looped a liner into right field to move Derek Jeter to second base. Robinson Cano hit a dribbler to Benoit's right that he stabbed at and somehow missed to load the bases. Bringing up Rodriguez. He just missed a 1-1, 95 mph fastball, fouling it straight back. He laid off a low changeup. Benoit came back with another changeup, a fantastic one that dove inside, an unhittable pitch. A-Rod missed it, swinging over the top. The fans booed as he walked back to the dugout. Sometimes it's not easy being the $275 million cleanup hitter.

But Teixeira walked on five pitches. Tigers 3, Yankees 2.

Nothing beats the tension of postseason baseball, especially in Yankee Stadium, with a visiting team trying to pull off the upset, the fans on their feet, too nervous to cheer or boo, it seemed. Maybe we've seen too many ballparks with fans waving towels. Maybe we just haven't seen enough Game 5s or Game 7s in recent years. But this felt like the most pressure-filled October moment in a long time.

Swisher struck out on a 2-2, 96 mph fastball.

Tigers fans exhaled for the first time in 12 minutes.

Benoit had needed 23 pitches to get two outs. The Tigers still needed six more.

Tension? It was punishment for fans on both sides, 166 games of big wins, big home runs and big comebacks, all down to two innings of October baseball. This is why we watch those games when it's 48 degrees and drizzling in April, why we watch those 3-hour games that move slower than a slug in the sun, meaningless games against the Royals or Twins in June. To get here. To six more outs.

As Jeter stepped in with two outs and Brett Gardner on first base in the eighth, Benoit had thrown 36 pitches. He hadn't thrown 37 pitches in a game all season. You can't make that kind of stuff up. On Benoit's 37th pitch, Gardner took off, Jeter took his classic inside-out swing ... Don Kelly took a step or two back, that right-field wall at Yankee Stadium that seems like it was built for wiffleball looming just a few feet behind him ... it looked like it had a chance ... fans reaching over, trying to pull a Jeffrey Maier ... the ball dropping into Kelly's glove.

So of course it came down to Jose Valverde, the man who said the series wouldn't return to New York. All he had to do was retire Granderson, Cano and Rodriguez. The big pitch was a 3-2 fastball to Granderson that he popped up to left. Cano lined softly to center. A-Rod swung through a 94 mph fastball. Game over, Tigers move on, Yankees go home, A-Rod walks off to more boos, the fans not caring that he was playing with a bad knee or that he wasn't the only Yankee to come up short in this series.

* * * *

Three big moments in this game:

1. Home runs from Don Kelly and Delmon Young in the first inning. I criticized Jim Leyland for hitting Kelly second. As we say though: You gotta make the plays, and Don Kelly came through. Kudos.

2. Yanking Ivan Nova after two innings essentially forced Joe Girardi to use CC Sabathia. I didn't like the idea of using CC, and he didn't pitch well. He got four outs but gave up two hits, two walks and the run that proved to be the winning run. Of the 37 pitches he threw, just 19 were for strikes.

3. Yankees third-base coach Rob Thomson held up Rodriguez at third base on Jorge Posada's one-out single in the fourth. Rodriguez had reached the bag right as Austin Jackson picked up the ball. Jackson has a decent arm and threw out eight runners on the season. It probably would have been a bang-bang play, especially with Rodriguez not at 100 percent speed. Tough call for Thomson, but I think he made the right decision, not wanting to potentially ruin a big inning. Russell Martin popped out to first and Gardner fouled out to leave the bases loaded.

* * * *

During his postgame news conference, Leyland said it perfectly: "This will be a game I'll remember the rest of my life." He pointed out he's been on both sides of it. Asked about Kelly's home run, he said, "Sometimes things just work out for you." He then praised Kelly, said it couldn't have happened to a better kid and nearly got choked up, knowing that home run will be with Kelly for the rest of his life.

And that's October baseball. Unsung heroes, big strikeouts, big hits, tension, pain, suffering and ... joy.

And memories. Love the memories.

You can follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

On Saturday, rookie designated hitter Jesus Montero was a significant reason why the Yankees defeated Jon Lester and the Red Sox 9-1, going 3-for-4 with a home run and four RBIs. From the moment Montero was called up this season, he has been an impact-level contributor, representing a win for the Yankees in a number of ways.

First and perhaps most obviously, Montero has been the Yankees’ best performer since his call-up on Sept. 1, suggesting that his underwhelming numbers from the minor leagues this season (.814 OPS at Triple-A) might not be a significant concern for his long-term future.

Since Sept. 1, Montero is hitting .346/.414/.635 with four home runs. Performance of that caliber is not likely to continue in the long-term -- he’s posted a .438 batting average on balls in play and a 27.8 percent line-drive rate, both of which would lead MLB, so they’re essentially unsustainable. However, it is reasonable to expect he will continue to represent an upgrade on what the team had received from its designated hitters to this point. Specifically, Montero has already outproduced Jorge Posada despite more than 300 fewer plate-appearances.

Despite about one-seventh of the total playing time, Montero has produced an additional 0.7 Wins Above Replacement compared to Posada. So in that sense Montero’s production represents a win for the Yankees in that he’s producing in general and he’s represented a significant upgrade for a position that had plagued the Yankees’ offense for much of this season.

However, this also represents a big win for the Yankees in the sense that Montero is still on the team. Don’t forget, back in early July of last season, the Yankees nearly traded Montero to the Seattle Mariners for Cliff Lee. However, the Mariners opted for the Texas Rangers’ offer that included Justin Smoak.

While there was noticeable controversy around those trade negotiations at the time, it appears as though GM Brian Cashman’s words from earlier this week are ringing true through the early portion of the respective careers of Montero and Smoak. Cashman stated, “I wanted Lee badly enough to move Montero. You take all the players traded when Lee went from Cleveland to Philly, Philly to Seattle, and Seattle to Texas, and Montero would've been by far the best player moved in any of those deals. ... But now I'm just happy fans have had a chance to get a better feel of why I was hesitant to make that deal.”

Montero has thrived in the early going, while Smoak has largely disappointed. Despite more than 800 fewer plate appearances, Montero has nearly outproduced Smoak in terms of Wins Above Replacement; while Montero has been red-hot of late, Smoak is batting just .194/.268/.265 since June 24. As a result, Smoak has been among the worst players in baseball since the start of last season: In his 871 plate appearances, Smoak has produced 0.5 Wins Above Replacement. Among players with at least 800 plate PAs since the start of the 2010 season, Smoak’s .703 OPS ranks 160th out of 195 qualifying batters, and his 0.5 WAR ranks among the least productive, with just five players doing worse: Chone Figgins (-0.1), Orlando Cabrera (0.1), Adam Lind (0.1), Ryan Theriot (0.3) and Raul Ibanez (0.4).

Considering that the age of both players -- Montero is in his age-21 season, while Smoak in his age-24 campaign -- leaves plenty of room for analysis and judgment, the Mariners’ decision to take Smoak over Montero to this point looks like a mistake.

However, the more relevant angle over the course of the next month could be that the Yankees didn’t move Montero last season and, thus, have an impact bat to DH for them entering the postseason -- and that Montero might just live up to all the hype after all.

We talked a lot about the red-hot Detroit Tigers, readers kept sending in trade suggestions for Joey Votto going to the Blue Jays, we talked about Gold Gloves and we discussed the Yankees' potental playoff bench. Is there room for Jorge Posada? All that and much more in the chat transcript.

If Jorge Posada isn't in the lineup as the Yankees' designated hitter, is there even room for him on the roster? Posada, unhappy about being benched on Sunday night, said he's moved on and will be ready when he gets another chance.

Whether that comes remains to be seen. Posada is hitting .230/.309/.372 on the season, but that was built around a .382 average in June. Since July 1, he's hit .201 with with no home runs in 78 at-bats. He hasn't played behind the plate this year, can't hit lefties (.103 this season) and doesn't exactly give you a pinch-running option. At best, he gives you a weak-hitting platoon DH. Can the Yankees afford to keep that kind of guy on the postseason roster?

Let's say the Yankees call up Jesus Montero as rumored and make him the full-time DH by the time the postseason rolls around. That gives the Yankees nine everyday starters, leaving the bench as Eduardo Nunez (backup infielder), Francisco Cervelli (backup catcher), Andruw Jones (backup outfielder, right-handed bat off the bench) plus one more player (if the Yankees carry 12 pitchers) or two (if the Yankees carry 11). The options would include Posada, Eric Chavez and a pinch-runner/defensive replacement like Chris Dickerson or Greg Golson (who was on the postseason roster last season).

Basically, it's difficult to carry a guy who can't play the field if you carry 12 pitchers. Chavez at least gives you a guy who can play third base and right now his bat is probably better than Posada's. Hey, it's entirely possible the Yankees have no intention of thrusting Montero into the spotlight this season. Maybe they can find room for two DHs on the postseason roster. But it seems unlikely to me and I see Posada being the odd man out come October.

Of course, the Yankees have to get there first. Meanwhile, they can keep Posada around until the rosters expand in September ... but how willing is Posada to become a spectator the final seven weeks?

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

While the '68 Dodgers have the greatest draft haul ever, they aren't the only team to stock up in a single draft. Not including drafts that resulted in one superstar (Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, etc.), here are six other great drafts.

Detroit Tigers, 1976: I believe no team has ever selected two future Hall of Famers in one draft (even if a player went unsigned). The Tigers have a chance, with second-rounder Alan Trammell and fifth-rounder Jack Morris both future Veterans Committee candidates if the writers don't elect them. But the draft didn't end there: the Tigers also got Steve Kemp (130 career home runs) and Dan Petry (125 wins). Plus, get this: They drafted Ozzie Smith in the seventh round but didn't sign him.

Kansas City A's, 1965: In the first round, the A's built the foundation for their three World Series champions of the '70s by selecting Arizona State teammates Rick Monday (first overall pick) and Sal Bando (sixth round) and Gene Tenace (20th round). Monday would later be flipped to the Cubs for Ken Holtzman, who joined Catfish Hunter and Vida Blue in the rotation. (Reggie Jackson and Blue were drafted in 1966 and '67. Hunter, Joe Rudi and Rollie Fingers were all signed in 1964 in the pre-draft era.)

San Francisco Giants, 1968: The Giants drafted an All-Star outfield in one draft: Garry Maddox and George Foster in the January regular phase, and then Gary Matthews with their first pick in June. Trouble is: They didn't know what to do with all these guys. Foster was traded to the Reds in 1971 for Frank Duffy and Vern Geishert, and there's a reason you haven't heard of those two. Foster ended up winning an MVP Award and leading the NL three seasons in a row in RBIs.

When Maddox -- "Two-thirds of the Earth is covered by water, the other one-third is covered by Garry Maddox" -- reached the majors in 1972, the Giants already had Bobby Bonds and Ken Henderson (a good player) plus an aging Willie Mays and rookie Dave Kingman, who couldn't really play anywhere so they plunked him in left field sometimes. Anyway, they cleared space by trading Mays to the Mets but would eventually trade Maddox a few years later to the Phillies for Willie Montanez. For some reason, teams kept trading for Montanez. (He'd hit 30 home runs as a rookie, but only reached 20 one other time and never walked.) Anyway, the Giants quickly realized Montanez wasn't that good and would trade him to the Braves for Darrell Evans, who was at least a productive player.

Matthews played four seasons for the Giants before signing with the Braves as a free agent. The Giants of the '70s and '80s were churning out ballplayers left and right but kept doing stupid things like trading Maddox for Montanez or Bob Knepper for Enos Cabell or Jack Clark for a pile of landfill or playing Johnnie LeMaster at shortstop year and they never won anything.

Boston Red Sox, 1976: Bruce Hurst was the team's first-rounder in June while Wade Boggs lasted until the seventh. John Tudor came in the January secondary phase. Mike Smithson would win 76 major league games.

New York Mets, 1982: All told, the Mets would draft 17 players who would reach the major leagues, including Dwight Gooden, Roger McDowell and Randy Myers. Unsigned, however: eighth-round pick Rafael Palmeiro. (The year before, the Mets had drafted but failed to sign Roger Clemens out of junior college.)

New York Yankees, 1990: First-rounder Carl Everett never played for the Yankees as he was lost to the Marlins in the expansion draft, but two late-rounders turned out pretty well: Andy Pettitte (22nd round) and Jorge Posada (24th). They also signed a skinny 20-year-old Panamanian pitcher as an amateur free agent that year: You've probably heard of him ... Mariano Rivera.

Honorable mention: Montreal Expos, 1977 (Tim Rainers, Bill Gullickson, Scott Sanderson); Cincinnati Reds, 1983 (Chris Sabo, Rob Dibble, Kurt Stillwell, Jeff Montgomery, Joe Oliver, Lenny Harris); Minnesota Twins, 1989 (Chuck Knoblauch, Denny Neagle, Scott Erickson, Marty Cordova, Mike Trombley); Boston Red Sox, 1989 (Mo Vaughn, Jeff Bagwell, Paul Quantrill). As for more recent drafts, the Red Sox selected Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz and Jed Lowrie in 2005; and the Braves' 2007 draft could be a good one: Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman and Craig Kimbrel (and Brandon Belt went unsigned).

Anyway, I'm sure I missed some good drafts in there. Add to the list if I did!

The Jorge Posada situation is interesting on many levels, but to me it's clear what's going on: Much like the Ken Griffey Jr. situation last season in Seattle, a franchise icon is struggling and appears at the end of his career. The organization doesn't want to look bad by releasing a beloved player, so it attempts to turn public opinion against the player. (Remember the whole "Griffey falling asleep in the clubhouse" story from last year?)

Now, my take is this: the Yankees have paid Posada more than $100 million in his career. He's been a valuable (and underrated) player to the franchise and has been well-compensated for providing such production. What, exactly, do they owe him? They gave him an over-market and over-long four-year contract as he was entering his age-36 season, not the wisest investment to begin with. They've been lucky to get the years out of him that they did, including a terrific 2009 when he helped them win the World Series.

The club wants to call up top prospect Jesus Montero. He can DH, he can spell Russell Martin behind the plate once or twice or week (allowing Alex Rodriguez or another position a player a day off in the field) and the Yankees would be a better ballclub for it. Just tell that to the fans and release Posada. The fans will understand. I'm pretty sure they care more about winning than sentiment.

And for those who believe this would look bad to other major leaguers, who may then be reluctant to sign with the Yankees, I say: Really? You think a future free agent would turn down more money from the Yankees because they once released Jorge Posada? Please.

* * * *

I've always felt Posada has been vastly underappreciated during this 15-year run of Yankee greatness. Switch-hitting catchers with power and plate discipline don't grow on trees. I recently ranked Posada the eighth-greatest Yankee of all time ... ahead of Mariano Rivera. Pretty much everyone disagrees with that, but employing one of the best catchers of all time is more valuable in my opinion than employing the greatest closer ever.

Where does Posada rank all time? Let's run some numbers. If you're not familiar with WAR, it stands for wins above a replacement level player for that position. OPS+ is a players on-base percentage plus slugging percentage, adjusted for home park and era, and scaled to where 100 is a league average hitter. Anyway, here are the top 10 catches via WAR from Baseball-Reference.com, plus Posada and Roy Campanella.



Posada spent his first year in the minor league as a second baseman. But 20 errors in 64 games at Oneonta necessitated a position change and he moved to catcher. He was never a top prospect coming through the minors; although he displayed good patience and moderate power, he hit just .258 in six minor league seasons, including three years at Triple-A learning the catching craft.

As a rookie in 1997, Joe Girardi earned the majority of the playing time. Posada turned 26 that year and hit .250. Nobody was predicting he'd turn into a star at that point.

Because of that late start, Posada falls just short of the top-10 catchers on the career WAR value list above. But what about peak value? I like to look at a player's best eight consecutive seasons as another way to assess his value, more of a "Did he dominate when he was at his best?" kind of question. Obviously, not every player has his best eight seasons consecutively, but it's just another to break down a player's career.

1. Johnny Bench (1968-1975), 49.2 WAR (43.4 offense, 5.8 defense)
2. Gary Carter (1978-1985), 49.2 WAR (38.5, 10.7)
3. Mike Piazza (1993-2000), 48.4 WAR (50.6, -2.2)
4. Yogi Berra (1950-1957), 41.9 WAR (40.3, 1.6)
5. Mickey Cochrane (1928-1935), 40.9 WAR (41.0, -0.1)
6. Ivan Rodriguez (1997-2004), 40.2 WAR (32.8, 7.4)
7. Ted Simmons (1973-1980), 38.0 WAR (39.4, -1.4)
8. Jorge Posada (2000-2007), 37.1 WAR (37.8, -0.7)
9. Bill Dickey (1932-1939), 36.1 WAR (35.7, 0.4)
10. Roy Campanella (1948-1955), 34.4 WAR (33.0, 1.4)
11. Carlton Fisk (1972-1979), 33.8 WAR (31.4, 2.4)
12. Gabby Hartnett (1930-1937), 28.5 WAR (27.4, 1.1)

Anyway, not a bad career for an error-prone minor league second baseman. Even though he has a solid case as one of the 10-12 most valuable catchers ever, it seems to fall a little short of Hall of Fame standards in my book, even with extra credit for World Series rings.

Posada wasn't in the lineup Wednesday night (Derek Jeter got a night at DH) and I get the feeling we won't be seeing him much there in the coming weeks. I suppose if he's forced out he'll end up leaving the majors like he came in -- very quietly.

(For more Yankees coverage, check out our SweetSpot blog affiliate, It's About the Money, Stupid.)

Every Monday should be like this. All 30 teams in action. Cliff Lee, David Price, Josh Johnson, Tim Lincecum, Tommy Hanson and Brett Anderson among the day's starting pitchers. The Yankees riding a five-game losing streak going in and facing clubhouse turmoil. Tony La Russa returning from treatment for shingles, wearing sunglasses and ... starting Albert Pujols at third base?

Indeed. Let's start there, in St. Louis, and watch a night of baseball in our trusty home office setup with our HDTV, MLB.TV and ESPN.com scoreboard operating simultaneously. By the end of the night, I'll feel a little like Vin Mazzaro, my head pounding from baseballs flying all around me.

Philadelphia at St. Louis: The night begins with Pujols playing third base. According to Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, La Russa approached Pujols in the batting cage, and Pujols agreed to his first start at the hot corner since 2002. The move helped keep Allen Craig's bat in the lineup, but in right field instead of second base (where he started a game last week), with Nick Punto playing second and Lance Berkman moving to first as La Russa started eight right-handed bats against Lee. (He did, however, have pitcher Jake Westbrook batting ninth.) Pujols started 89 games at third his first two seasons, when he moved among third, first and the outfield, before moving permanently to first base in 2003 when the Cards acquired Scott Rolen. He actually rated as a good fielder there and would have been more than adequate if he had remained there. Still, a bit of a quirky move by La Russa. (Too soon for a shingles joke?)

Sure enough, in the top of the second, Pujols bobbles a potential double-play ball, getting just one out, which leads to Ben Francisco's RBI single. La Russa adjusts his sunglasses.

New York at Tampa Bay: David Price is not whom you want to face when trying to end a five-game losing skid, but the Yankees score twice in the second and then take a 5-1 lead on Curtis Granderson's long three-run homer to right in the fifth. Price tried to fire a 97 mph fastball past the Grandy Man (sorry, John Sterling made me do it), but it was right down the middle and Granderson became the first left-handed hitter to homer off Price since Chase Utley in 2009. It was Granderson's 14th home run of 2011 and, amazingly, his seventh off a left-hander. Entering this season, he was a career .211 hitting against lefties, with 20 home runs in 777 at-bats. He has seven in 40 at-bats in 2011.

Meanwhile, A.J. Burnett looks good, and hopefully we can all move on from this Jorge Posada nonsense if the Yankees win.

Philadelphia at St. Louis: Lee just walked Matt Holliday (looked like he got pinched by plate umpire Gerry Davis on an inside fastball) and Lance Berkman (fastball way outside) back to back for the second time in the game. Craig strikes out, but Yadier Molina reaches on an infield single, Punto bloops an RBI single into right and Ryan Theriot bloops another RBI single into right. It's not Lee's night. He'd end up walking a career-high six batters -- after entering with seven walks in 52 1/3 innings. Lee hasn't won since shutting out the Nationals on April 14. His other win came against the Astros, and the Phillies have won just four of his nine starts. It's been some bad luck, but his 3.84 ERA just isn't that impressive in 2011 -- that ranks 33rd among National League starters as I type this.

New York at Tampa Bay: And just like that, Burnett blows up. I blame Posada. Sam Fuld, the pride of New Hampshire, belts a two-run homer in the sixth. Actually, "belts" isn't quite the right word, but Fuld got enough to clear the fence near the foul pole. Then with two outs, Evan Longoria reaches on an infield single, Burnett throws a wild pitch, Matt Joyce singles in Longoria, Burnett uncorks another wild pitch and then throws a junk curveball that B.J. Upton appropriately belts -- right word -- for another home run and a 6-5 Tampa Bay lead.

Cleveland at Kansas City: Somewhere in here, I noticed the Indians are scoring a bunch of runs in the fourth inning. I figured, "Ahh, another bad start by Kyle Davies," but it turns out he left the game in the first inning with what the club called "anterior shoulder soreness." The victim was Vin Mazzaro, who turned in maybe the worst relief outing in major league history. I went back and watched his complete fourth inning, which went like this:

Matt LaPorta: Soft liner into right field.

Jack Hannahan: Bounces into a 4-6 force play.

Michael Brantley: Walks on four pitches. Mazzaro walks off the mound, tugs his hat, spits, and I feel sorry for him knowing what's about to happen.

Asdrubal Cabrera: Bloops an RBI single into left field.

Shin-Soo Choo: Mazzaro falls behind two balls, and pitching coach Bob McClure visits the mound. The Royals announcers talk about Mazzaro (who entered in the third) needing to suck up the innings in place of Davies. Choo ends up flying out to deep center.

Carlos Santana: The announcing crew mentions Mazzaro was scheduled to start Tuesday night and wonders whether the Royals knew Davies' health was a question mark. Santana falls behind 0-2 but ends up working a walk.

Travis Hafner: Slices a double to left-center as Melky Cabrera takes a step in and then stumbles going after it. Let's just say Andruw Jones in his prime would have caught it.

Orlando Cabrera: Slices a liner down the right-field line for an 8-0 lead.

Travis Buck: Mazzaro reaches his 30th pitch of the inning. I think every breaking ball he's thrown has been low and in the dirt. Buck grounds a ball into the hole that Alcides Escobar circles ... but double-clutches on the throw, and Buck beats it out.

LaPorta: Drills a double down the left-field line.

Hannahan: Dribbles a single into right.

Brantley: Drills a 91 mph meatball over the fence for a 10-run inning and 13-0 lead.

A. Cabrera: Mercifully, strikes out.

Now, with a little luck, Mazzaro would have been out of the inning much earlier. But he has no knockout pitch, and I don't think he threw an off-speed pitch for a strike the entire inning. And it would get worse: He'd be responsible for four runs the next inning. His final line score: 2.1 IP, 11 H, 14 R, 14 ER, 3 BB, 2 SO, 1 HR. And one likely trip back to Triple-A.

Philadelphia at St. Louis: Pujols turns a double play and makes a diving stop for an out on another play. La Russa adjusts his sunglasses.

New York at Tampa Bay: Joel Peralta throws two perfect innings, and Kyle Farnsworth closes it out with a 1-2-3 ninth, Longoria making a nice scoop on a slow chopper for the final out. There's a little irony in Farnsworth, scorned in New York during his years there and signed for $3.25 million by Tampa this offseason, effectively closing games while Rafael Soriano, Tampa's departed closer and now the Yankees' $35 million setup man, pitching poorly and battling a sore elbow. I blame Posada.

Philadelphia at St. Louis: The Cards' bullpen has been shaky, but Fernando Salas breezes through a 1-2-3 ninth. Salas doesn't throw hard, but La Russa hasn't been afraid to use closers who don't light up the radar gun as long they throw strikes. I don't know whether he'll hold the job, but on this night, Salas struck out Raul Ibanez and got Ryan Howard on a medium-deep fly ball to center and John Mayberry on a routine fly to center. During this tough stretch that began last week, the Phillies have gone 1-2 against the Braves, 2-1 against the Marlins, 1-2 against the Braves and now 0-1 against the Cardinals. Chase Utley, you are needed.

San Francisco at Colorado: I flip over to watch some of this one. Gotta watch Lincecum. I see Nate Schierholtz give the Giants a 4-2 lead with a one-handed home run off Clayton Mortensen. But then I see Timmy come apart in the bottom of the inning, as the Rockies score five, capped by Carlos Gonzalez belting -- correct word -- an outside fastball deep into the trees in right-center. The pitch was up, and CarGo seemed to be sitting dead red and yanked it with authority and had an animated home run trot around the bases. I wonder whether Lincecum took note.

Baltimore over at Boston: Flip over to Fenway Park, where the Red Sox have rallied from a 6-0 deficit to make it 7-6 by the bottom of the ninth. The bespectacled Kevin Gregg is on for the save. He's not my favorite closer in the world. Jacoby Ellsbury walks with one out. Dustin Pedroia steps in, works the count to 2-2, takes a splitter in the dirt as Ellsbury steals second, fouls a liner down the left-field line, fouls off another pitch, and another one, then works a walk on the ninth pitch of the battle. The proverbial "great at-bat." With the red-hot Adrian Gonzalez stepping in, you can predict this ending. He doubles off the Monster on the first pitch. Red Sox win 8-7. Yankees fans blame Posada.

Vin Mazzaro postscript: It turns out 11 relievers have allowed at least 14 runs (since 1919, via Baseball-Reference.com). But they all did it before 1945, and most were in long outings. The worst: Lefty O'Doul allowed 16 runs in a three-inning stint in a 27-3 loss for the Red Sox to the Indians. But only three of the runs were earned! The last reliever to give up as many as 11 runs was Mel Rojas, in a 22-6 loss for the Tigers to the Mariners in 1999. Rojas pitched just four more games in his major league career.

Florida at New York: I thought I was done, but then I see the Marlins and Mets are in extra innings. Marlins reliever Burke Badenhop comes up in the 11th with two runners on and two outs. Marlins manager Edwin Rodriguez still has Ozzie Martinez left on the bench (he has only 13 position players) but leaves in Badenhop, who is 1-for-23 in his career with 12 strikeouts. Starter Josh Johnson lasted only five innings, so Badenhop is already the team's fifth reliever, but it still seems odd to leave him in with two outs. Sure enough, Ryota Igarashi throws a first-pitch curveball for a ball, falls behind 2-0 ... and then Badenhop hits a 3-2 fastball up the middle for an RBI single. In the bottom of the inning, the Mets are out of bench players (David Wright was unavailable), so pitcher Jonathon Niese pinch-hits with two outs ... and hits a triple off the glove off Emilio Bonifacio. That brings up Jose Reyes, and I'm pretty sure the night is going to go on forever.

Except Reyes strikes out.

And I think Mets fans blame Jorge Posada.

Meanwhile, out on the West Coast, Michael Pineda is throwing zeroes, the A's and Angels are tied at 0 ...

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Follow Dave on Twitter: @dschoenfield.

The New York Yankees have lost five in a row and nine of 12. Suddenly, they're just 20-18 in a logjammed AL East, 2 games behind first-place Tampa Bay and just 1 1/2 games ahead of fifth-place Baltimore. Is this just a little slump or a crisis?

I vote for crisis. And here's why:

1. The offense is not underperforming.

Check out this chart, showing the starting nine's 2010 numbers, their projected 2011 numbers via ZiPS, and their actual 2011 numbers:

Nick Swisher and Jorge Posada aren't close to matching their projections, but they're balanced out by the hot starts of Curtis Granderson and Russell Martin (although he's cooled off lately). And in the case of Posada, who turns 40 this summer, not completely unexpected given his age. Yes, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez might hit a little better, but given their ages and the league-wide drop in offense, their numbers aren't that far off their projected totals. Cano's power stroke has been there, but a big reason for his MVP-caliber 2010 was improved patience, but his walk rate has dipped from a career-best 8.2 percent to 3.9 percent, his lowest since his rookie season. He's also striking out at a career-worst 17.5 percent. Mark Teixeira, usually a slow starter, has been about what you'd expect.

Anyway, it should be noted the Yankees do lead the AL in runs scored. I just don't expect much of a boost over what they've done so far.

2. The pitching has been better than expected.

Yes, Phil Hughes has struggled with a tired arm, but Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia have both been solid, combining for a 3.50 ERA over 79 2/3 innings. That's better than what Hughes produced last season. A.J. Burnett is pitching as well as he ever has in pinstripes, averaging more than six innings per start with a 3.38 ERA. And the bullpen, despite Rafael Soriano's slow start, has been solid, with a 3.31 ERA. The point: I don't see where the pitching will get better, and there are obvious huge questions marks about the future performance of Colon and Garcia.

3. The schedule.

The Yankees are in the middle of a stretch where they play 32 games in 33 days. Joe Girardi has been reluctant to use his bench much -- Granderson has played every game; Cano, Teixeira, Brett Gardner and Swisher have sat just once; Jeter has missed just two -- leaving one to wonder how all these old legs will handle the wear and tear. They also haven't played Tampa Bay until tonight and haven't made a West Coast trip yet.

4. They failed to take advantage of their early schedule.

The Yankees played 24 of their first 38 games at home -- that's more home games than any other team -- but went just 13-11 in those games. Last season, they were nine games better at home.

5. Can they hit away from home?

The Yankees have thrived off the home run, hitting a major league-leading 60 (11 more than Cincinnati), and scoring a higher percentage of their runs via the home run than any other club. That strategy seems made for Yankee Stadium, but it will translate on the road over 81 games? Last season the Yankees had an .832 OPS at home, .742 on the road.

6. Increased parity means deadline deals will be more difficult.

Right now, Minnesota and Seattle look like the only American League teams who won't still be in the playoff chase come July, but neither has a difference-making pitcher who will be available. The National League looks even tighter than the AL. I just don't see a pitcher near the quality of Cliff Lee or Roy Oswalt who will be on the trade market.

7. You can eat the money but not the results.

How long do the Yankees stick with Posada? Top prospect Jesus Montero is hitting .336 at Triple-A, but with just two home runs and six walks in 122 at-bats. Still, he would be a good bet to outproduce Posada from here on out. But will the Yankees let sentiment get in the way?

8. The Red Sox are only going to get better.

Boston didn't panic after its 2-10 start and has clawed back to .500. Unlike the Yankees, you can find several Red Sox underperforming their projected numbers, most notably Carl Crawford, Dustin Pedroia and John Lackey.

9. The Rays are for real.

This is going to be three-team race. Heck, maybe a four-team race with the Blue Jays in the mix as well.

10. Bad karma.

The Posada incident might have been blown out of proportion, but it symbolizes how things just don't feel right with the Yankees this year. This goes back to the contentious offseason negotiations with Jeter. For some reason, GM Brian Cashman has been more public in vocalizing his thoughts (he also bashed the Rafael Soriano signing). Not that players need support from their GM to play well, but the way he handled the Posada situation was definitely odd. Meanwhile, Girardi doesn't seem to offer the calming leadership that Joe Torre provided. Certainly, Yankee players are used to dealing with issues that blow up in the media, but in the past they've been able to rely on their depth of talent and ability.

Now that talent is older than ever and the on/off switch harder to locate. The Rays have won two of the past three AL East division titles and believe in themselves. The Red Sox are gaining steam. A lot has gone right for the Yankees this season -- and they're barely over .500 and now they get to face David Price as they try to end this skid.

(For more Yankees coverage, check out our SweetSpot blog affiliate, It's About the Money, Stupid.)

Here are the top five reasons why Monday's Baseball Today podcast with Keith Law and me is a must-listen:

1. Posada-gate is hopefully over, but who was right, who was wrong and why will it be so much worse when one of Jorge's teammates keeps declining?

2. Cleveland Indians fans still don't like it, but the best team in baseball record-wise gets dubious respect in our Power Rankings. We explain, while showing the AL East love.

3. Can a team with Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan really be the worst in baseball? If that trio isn't contributing at a high level, you betcha.

4. We react to the SweetSpot blog about the new best rivalry in baseball with some skepticism, but then again, it's an interesting issue, especially defining the word rivalry.

5. We talk about the best hitter in baseball -- you did see all the home runs this weekend, right? -- and check back with our feelings on the noteworthy offseason contract.

Plus: Excellent emails, how I love the old 1970s uniforms, the Braves' outlook with Chipper's knee tear, analyzing the percentages on catchers throwing out basestealers. David Price is dealing with his fastball and poor Brandon League had a week to forget ... all this on Monday's Baseball Today!

Jorge Posada took himself out of the lineup on Saturday, just one hour before game time. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman told the media that Posada had been dropped to the ninth spot in the lineup before he was scratched, possibly implying that was the reason. However, Posada’s wife, Laura, later tweeted, “Jorge loves being a Yankee… he’s trying to help his team win. Today, due to back stiffness, he wasn’t able to play.” After the game, Posada said it was his back that forced him out of the lineup.

Posada, 39, is a five-time All-Star, a five-time Silver Slugger who helped the New York Yankees win five world championships. He’s on the final year of a four-year, $52.4 million deal. He’s batting .165 with six homers and 15 RBIs. He also struck out 30 times in 109 at-bats; his OPS is an embarrassing .621. He’s also trying to adjust to a new position as the Yankees’ DH. It is not an easy transition for most. Not everyone can do it. His move to DH was not his decision. He wanted to keep catching. He’s had tough year. After all those world championships, to be told you can’t catch anymore hurts. To be moved to the ninth spot in the order on May 14, hurts.

It’s the combination of changing positions, not performing, aching body, Josh Beckett pitching and loss of confidence that probably culminated with him taking himself out of the lineup. Have compassion. It doesn’t appear that Brian Cashman or Joe Girardi have any for him. We all know it’s big business, and when you pay big money you expect your players to play and perform. We all get it. But he’s Jorge Posada. Deal with him behind the scenes. Protect him from the media and fans. He’s going through a tough time. You owe that much to him. Lower him in the lineup if you have to, sit him on the bench if it helps, ask him to retire when you decide it's best, but in the meantime, don't publicly embarrass him like you did on Saturday.

And yes, Jesus Montero is tearing it up in the minor leagues. And yes, Montero gives the Yankees a better chance to win if he’s the designated hitter. But until you are ready to make that decision, to ask Posada to step aside, and keep him out of the lineup for good, you PROTECT HIM! He’s a Yankee, a five-time world champion Yankee who is known for his class and dignity. Show him the same.

Thanks for reading. You can follow me on twitter @JimBowdenESPNxm.

This is not an anti-Derek Jeter post, although I'm sure many Yankees fans will take it that way.

Jeter has started 24 of the Yankees' 25 games and has hit first or second in the order in all 24 starts. He's hitting .242 but has just two extra-base hits (both doubles) in 95 at-bats. He's drawn nine walks, pushing his on-base percentage up to .308. The two doubles were a ground-ball double to left off Francisco Liriano on April 7 and a ground-ball double to right off Jake Arrieta on April 24. In other words, he not only hasn't hit a home run, he hasn't hit one screaming liner in the gap all season long. Last season -- the worst of his Hall of Fame career -- 16 percent of the balls Jeter put in play were line drives, the lowest of his career. That percentage is just 8 percent entering Monday's game.

Jeter will turn 37 in June. I'm not sure if that seems old to you or not; in baseball terms, it is old. Since 1901, only 119 players have batted 500 times in a season at that age. Some were still going strong: Barry Bonds won the MVP Award, Ted Williams hit .345, Tony Gwynn rapped out 220 hits, Honus Wagner and George Brett won batting titles. Many were still productive. And some showed the signs of age: Craig Biggio moved to center field and hit .264, Cal Ripken slugged a career-low .389 and finally took a day off, Robin Yount hit .258 and retired.

Maybe Jeter is just off to a slow start, but on the heels of last year's decline and evidence of declining bat speed, I'm not so sure that this isn't his talent level right now. He's actually striking out at a career-low rate (10.5 percent versus a career rate of 16.8), so he's putting more balls in play and still hitting for a low average. He's just not hitting the ball with any authority.

Before the season, the big debate was whether the Yankees should hit Jeter or Brett Gardner leadoff. Gardner isn't off a to a great start, either (.200/.300/.400), but that still gives him an OPS 128 points higher than Jeter's. Gardner lost his leadoff spot after just two weeks, with Joe Girardi moving Jeter into the No. 1 slot and Curtis Granderson or Nick Swisher to the 2-hole. In some fashion, there's no need for Girardi to panic -- the Yankees lead the division by 2½ games, and they're leading the American League with 5.56 runs per game. But it's a team that's become overly reliant upon the home run, and it should be noted that the Yankees have played 18 of their 25 games in the close quarters of NuYankee. That means as the road games start piling up, they're going to want a more balanced offense, which means getting guys on base in front of Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez and Robinson Cano ... which means moving Jeter down in the lineup, at least against right-handers. Personally, I'd go with something like this for now:




I'd also suggest giving Jeter a few more days off, especially against tough right-handers. He's not a young player anymore, and although his durability is admirable, I think he needs to sit more than once a month.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.