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We closed another week of excellent Baseball Today podcasts with Friday’s edition , as Mark Simon and I reflected on positives in the baseball world, and looked ahead to a fun interleague weekend!

1. Kerry Wood decides to call an end to his career, and we point to his career achievements rather than focus on the negative, including his amazing strikeout legacy.

2. Atlanta Braves ace Brandon Beachy keeps on winning, and keeps on doing it in a far different way than we’ve seen from him before.

3. Interleague play is here! Time for my annual rant on why it’s not only about the teams from Chicago, New York and Los Angeles meeting, but for that 10-year-old kid in Kansas City finally getting to see Justin Upton hit.

4. Our emailers want to discuss Emmanuel Burriss, the Pittsburgh Alleghenys and really, so much more, and we want what our emailers want!

5. Our weekend preview focuses on numerous series in which teams with similar records face off, from Pirates-Tigers to the battle of the Beltway and more. Plus, what to expect from Albert Pujols, Jose Bautista, Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Hamilton!

So download and listen to Friday’s fun Baseball Today, and have a great weekend! Power Rankings on Monday!

When we started You Can’t Predict Baseball back in 2010, Jose Bautista emerged as our poster child. Bautista had been in the majors since 2004, played for four different franchises that year alone, and had never hit more than 16 homers in a season. In 2010, he clubbed 54 home runs, smashing his old career-high slugging percentage by nearly 200 points. Such a sudden power surge provoked much interest, and those who argued it was simply a fluke were proven wrong when Bautista put up an even better encore in 2011, increasing his batting average by 42 points and OPS by 61 points.

This season, however, has been a different story. While we’ve been distracted by the home run antics of Matt Kemp and Josh Hamilton, that thing in Miami’s center field, and the curious case of Albert Pujols, Bautista has gone mostly unnoticed ... which, for him, is a good thing. It’s still early, of course, but the numbers are not pretty: his .194 batting average and .403 slugging percentage entering Tuesday's game are near 200-point declines from last season’s totals (.302 and .608, respectively). If you’re more inclined toward sabermetrics, it’s a decline from a virtually Bondsian .441 wOBA to a workmanlike .321: above average, but on par with names like Dexter Fowler and Angel Pagan.

On the other hand, Bautista’s .167 BABIP is extremely low -- at next-to-last in MLB (behind only Eric Hosmer's .165 mark), it’s almost impossible that it won’t improve at some point. Of his eight home runs, five have been hit in May, which could mean that Bautista just got off to a slow start. However, even in 2010 his BABIP was just .233, and given his career .272 mark, the .309 he posted last year is the one that sticks out. More ominously, however, Bautista slowed down considerably in the second half last year, posting a .255/.417/.476 line after the All-Star break. That’s not terrible, especially not the OBP, but it’s human, especially compared to his .334/.468/.702 line in the first half. The only real difference between his second-half line and what he has posted in 2012 thus far is 100 points of BABIP.

The Blue Jays usually do not attract a great deal of attention, and Bautista did not recently sign a massive 10-year free-agent deal, so his slow start isn’t receiving the attention of Pujols' prolonged slump. After all, Edwin Encarnacion and Kelly Johnson are the only Jays currently posting a triple-digit OPS+ (ie, currently the only hitters producing above average), and the team is still over .500. If the Blue Jays are going to contend for the playoffs, they need Bautista to be the hitter he was over the past two years.

The middle of May is too early to call this a bad season, and as we noted, his recent splurge of home runs may be indicative of him turning things around -- though we do, however, have to stipulate that three of those home runs came against the Twins, who have terrible pitching, and at Target Field, where Bautista has 10 homers in just 52 plate appearances. Still, considering last year’s second-half slide, the picture is murky. It’s right to put optimism in Bautista’s retooled swing, which led to 10 home runs in September 2009 before his 2010 breakout. But right now, Bautista’s production is not what Jays fans have grown used to.

You can follow You Can’t Predict Baseball on Twitter at @cantpredictball.

http://www.youcantpredictbaseball.com/

It was another eventful chat session as we discussed Albert Pujols' homerless April and asked readers to project his final numbers. We discussed many things about the Minnesota Twins, gave a shout-out to the awesome Jose Altuve, tried to figure out what the Angels should do with Mark Trumbo, wondered who the first manager to be fired will be (yes, once we again Dusty Baker's name came up!), wondered how much bad defense has to do with the poor starts by Max Scherzer and Josh Johnson, wondered how much good defense is helping Jeremy Hellickson, debated the Nationals' attendance issues and pointed out that Pujols' slow start is stealing attention away from Jose Bautista's slow start. All that and more! Check out the transcript here.

There will be no hardcore analysis here. Just two simple statements: I think Colby Rasmus is a good baseball player; I think he's going to have a big year.

Forget what happened last year, in St. Louis and then after the trade when he hurt his wrist and hit just .173 for the Blue Jays. He's still just 25 years old, he had a nice season in 2010 when he was just 23 and after a slow start things are starting to click.

Through the season's first seven games Rasmus was hitting .125 and I had somebody ask in one of my chats if Rasmus was done. One week and people were writing him off. Since then he's hit .316 with two doubles and two home runs, raising his season line to .242/.294/.452.

I like the way John Farrell is handling him, batting him eighth or ninth to start the season, keeping unnecessary pressure off him. He did move him up to fifth a couple days ago for one game, before sliding him back down the past two nights.

Rasmus is just one reason for Jays fans to be optimistic. Jose Bautista is hitting just .200, you get the feeling Brett Lawrie is ready for a tear, maybe Adam Lind will start hitting. So they're waiting for the half their lineup to heat up -- and they're still 10-7.

Could be good things happening in Toronto.

After my father and I nearly froze to death from 16 innings of Opening Day “magic” at Thursday’s Indians game, he turned to me and asked, “What if it goes extra innings on Saturday as well?” I responded by saying, “Ubaldo Jimenez will probably give up seven or eight runs in the first couple of innings. Dan Wheeler will be sent in for mop-up duty, and he’ll give up a few more. The offense will be terrible, so it will assuredly end in nine innings.”

I’m glad to say that if I had to be wrong about one of those statements, it was the one about Jimenez. Nobody really knew what to expect from Jimenez today, but Indians fans seemed to fear the worst. He was all over the map in spring training, and was shaky after he plunked Troy Tulowitzki against Colorado last Sunday. With a five-game suspension looming (Jimenez announced that he will drop his appeal) and the ongoing drama with the Rockies, would he be able to put all of that behind him and help the Indians bounce back from their heartbreaking loss Thursday?

Jimenez looked sharp today, and despite the fact that he earned a no-decision in Cleveland's 7-4, 12-inning loss, he took a perfect game into the sixth inning, and a no-hitter into the seventh. From what I saw on the radar gun at the ballpark, he topped out at 93 mph and looked like he was throwing a lot of off-speed pitches. His command, a problem at times this spring, was sharp until the sixth inning. He was able to quiet the bat of Jose Bautista, which no Indians pitcher seemed able to do on Thursday (including Justin Masterson).

While I’m certainly not ready to declare last summer’s trade with Colorado a complete success yet, it has to make Indians fans feel a little bit better to see a strong opening performance from Jimenez. I expected to see more tension and excitement at today’s game as it reached the later innings. The closest I’ve ever been to witnessing a no-hitter was when Cliff Lee took one into the eighth inning against the Cardinals on June 14, 2009; on that night, you could just feel the electricity in the air at Progressive Field, as if something really special was taking place. Today, much of the crowd around me appeared to be disengaged, or Toronto fans. Nobody really seemed to fully grasp the performance they were seeing from Jimenez.

To be fair, most people with a rooting interest in the Indians were preoccupied with complaints about the Indians’ offense. The Tribe has now played 28 innings of baseball in just two games. In those 28 innings, they’ve scored eight runs, six of which have come via the home run. The Indians left just three runners on base on Saturday, two of which were left stranded in the 12th inning after Toronto had already gone ahead by four. While there were a number of missed opportunities on Thursday, they didn’t even have any opportunities to miss this afternoon. In their first two games they’ve had just 12 hits, and three of those came in the bottom of the 12th today. The “major” free agent signing this winter, Casey Kotchman, has started the season 0-for-12. He has yet to hit a ball out of the infield; a couple of his groundouts today didn’t even make it past the pitcher’s mound.

The “Bullpen Mafia” has shown some signs of weakness early in the season, with Chris Perez, Jairo Asencio, Vinnie Pestano, and Tony Sipp all responsible for surrendering runs in pivotal situations. With the offense as weak as it has looked these first two games, the Indians would probably still be playing Thursday’s game if the bullpen continued to hold the Toronto offense scoreless. Both Thursday and today, manager Manny Acta appeared slow to pull the trigger once Perez and Sipp got into trouble. Nobody was warming up, and nobody even tried to stall for time to get someone else up in the bullpen. When your team is struggling to score runs, a quick hook with a struggling bullpen pitcher may be the best form of action.

Even though the Indians have only played two games thus far, Masterson and Jimenez have been the bright spots in both. This offseason, fans were most worried about the starting pitching and the offense. Even though it’s far too soon to declare the starting pitching situation “fine,” I’ve seen enough from the offense to know that I’m concerned. Masterson went eight innings on Thursday, and Jimenez lasted seven today; you can’t ask for much more than that from your starting pitchers.

Now the offense needs to step up and prove that these two games were a fluke, and not the norm. Perhaps they just need to start a feud with Troy Tulowitzki and the Colorado Rockies. It seemed to work for Jimenez.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Stephanie Liscio blogs about the Indians for the SweetSpot network at "It's Pronounced 'Lajaway'," and can be followed on Twitter at @stephanieliscio.

The SweetSpot network bloggers have weighed in and Miguel Cabrera is their preseason prediction for AL MVP. While Cabrera collected 17 of 38 first-place votes and Albert Pujols just four, the final points total was close as Pujols picked up more second- and third-place votes. Cabrera has finished in the top five of MVP voting five times in his career with his highest result a second-place finish in 2010. Evan Longoria collected the second-most first-place votes to place third in the voting. The blog network apparently doesn't foresee repeat performances from Justin Verlander and Jacoby Ellsbury, last season's top two finishers in the MVP vote, as neither finished in the top 10.

Points on a 14-9-8-7-6 basis.

• ESPN Insider Dan Szymborski asks: Is there another Jose Bautista lingering near the bottom of the ESPN 500 list? Dan throws out some interesting names, including Travis Snider and Pedro Alvarez, although both of them were former first-round picks and one-time top prospects. Of course, what makes any Bautista comparison difficult is that he hasn't just had a couple of nice seasons out of nowhere; he's had two seasons that made him one of the best players in baseball. There may be a more systematic way of doing this: Check players who were (A) never top prospects; (B) had some time in the majors before blossoming into an MVP candidate. I have to think Bautista is fairly unique in this regard. Worth looking at during some down time.
• Tristan Cockcroft has a list of players he's not excited about. Tristan is writing for a fantasy baseball audience, but I like his support evidence. Names such as Adam Wainwright and Dee Gordon will provide some debate.
• Eric Karabell has updated his fantasy top 100. He's sticking with Ryan Braun at No. 1.
• One more link from our fantasy department: AJ Mass looks at the Rays and whether the hype surrounding Matt Moore is justified.
• Mets Today has a roundup of all the fallout from the court decision regarding the Mets.
• Dodger Thoughts author Jon Weisman has a piece on ESPNLosAngeles.com on the Clayton Kershaw-Tim Lincecum rivalry.
• How do the Brewers replace Prince Fielder? In Part 1 of a 2012 preview, Disciples of Uecker examines whether Aramis Ramirez will come close to Fielder's 2011 production.
• Harper Gordek is worried about a Nationals lineup that may open up with Rick Ankiel hitting fifth. Can the pitching staff prevent enough runs to make the Nationals contenders?
• Michael Baumann on Chase Utley, Freddy Galvis and panic (or lack of it) in Philly.
• Brenden Lowery breaks down Carlos Santana and his approach from both sides of the plate in 2011. With heat maps!
• Craig Brown examines the Royals trade in which they acquired catcher Humberto Quintero to fill in for the injured Salvador Perez and outfielder Jason Bourgeois. If the word "train wreck" is used as descriptive medicine, it may not be a cure.
• Here's what the Red Sox's 25-man roster may look like.
• One thing the Twins have: Guys who can play center field. With Denard Span, Ben Revere, Joe Benson and prospect Aaron Hicks, should the Twins consider dealing from their surplus?
• Chris Quick with an interesting study on Giants infielder Emmanuel Burriss: With his lack of power what are the odds he can be of some value at the plate?
• Will first base be a problem for the Cardinals?
• Ramon Santiago for Tigers MVP!
• Finally, a fun list of the top 10 final seasons, in honor of Will Clark's 2000.

Jose Bautista hit 54 home runs in 2010, 12 more than Albert Pujols.

Bautista hit 43 home runs in 2011, two more than Curtis Granderson.

Bautista would certainly seem the logical choice to lead the majors again in 2012, if you could pick just one player.

But a reader posed an interesting question in my chat on Tuesday: Would you bet on Bautista or the field, meaning you get everyone else? There were eight other players within 10 home runs of Bautista a year ago, so the safe bet would be to take the field. I'm curious to see what percentage of readers would still bet on Bautista, thus today's poll.

The last player to lead the majors three seasons in a row in home runs? Mark McGwire from 1996 to 1998, with totals of 52, 58 and 70. Before that, it was Mike Schmidt from 1974 to 1976, with totals of 36, 38 and 38.

Too much serious stuff around here. Let's tackle something a little more fun and lighthearted -- predictions for 2012, using Academy Award categories.

Best Cinematography
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers
Albert Pujols, Los Angeles Angels
Jose Reyes, Miami Marlins

Winner: Matt Kemp

This award encompasses beauty, excitement and thrilling action. If he plays like he did in 2011, when he hit 39 home runs, stole 40 bases, played a mean center field and hit the ball a long way, it's hard to match the all-around cinema Kemp provides on a nightly basis.

Visual Effects
Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies
Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals

Winner: Roy Halladay

This award goes to the pitcher who does stuff that doesn't seem real. Halladay gets such great movement and location on his pitches that he doesn't have to possess the high-octane velocity of a Verlander to be the best pitcher in the game.

Best Sound Editing
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers
Ozzie Guillen, Miami Marlins
Logan Morrison, Miami Marlins
Nyjer Morgan, Milwaukee Brewers
Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds

Winner: Ozzie Guillen

Braun set an early standard with his speech on Friday, but this one is a clear winner: Ozzie in a landslide.

Makeup
John Axford (Picture), Milwaukee Brewers
Jon Niese (Picture), New York Mets
Jose Reyes (Picture), Miami Marlins
Delmon Young, Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera (Picture), Detroit Tigers
Brian Wilson (Picture), San Francisco Giants

Winner: The Detroit Tigers

Niese got a nose job and Reyes cut off his locks, but we honor the Tigers for their willingness to wear their fat suits for the sake of putting on a good show.

Costume Design
Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers
Theo Epstein, Chicago Cubs
Prince Fielder, Detroit Tigers
Albert Pujols, Los Angeles Angels
Jose Reyes, Miami Marlins

Winner: Albert Pujols

He's still wearing red, but seeing Pujols in an Angels uniform is still a dramatic visual that's hard to believe.

Best Director
Larry Beinfest, Miami Marlins
Jon Daniels, Texas Rangers
Jerry Dipoto, Los Angeles Angels
Dan O'Dowd, Colorado Rockies
Mike Rizzo, Washington Nationals

Winner: Mike Rizzo

This looks to be a tough race, but Rizzo's addition of Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson to the Nationals' rotation could end up as the key moves of the offseason.

Best Supporting Actor
Carlos Beltran, St. Louis Cardinals
Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants
Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers
C.J. Wilson, Los Angeles Angels
Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay Rays

Winner: Ben Zobrist

Evan Longoria and the pitching may get all the attention, but Zobrist continues to reign as one of the game's most underrated stars, a player who gets on base, hits for some power, plays fantastic decision and can play multiple position. If the Rays make the playoffs again, he'll be a key reason why.

Best Actor
Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers
Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers
Robinson Cano, New York Yankees
Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers
Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays
Albert Pujols, Los Angeles Angels
Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies
Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds

Winner: Jose Bautista

This category is wide open yet again so we had to have 10 nominees, but this is the season Bautista wins the MVP trophy in a controversial decision over Cabrera.

Best Original Screenplay
Cleveland Indians -- Grady Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo are healthy, Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall develop into stars, Ubaldo Jimenez wins 20 games and the Indians shockingly win one of the AL wild cards.

Milwaukee Brewers -- After losing Fielder, Braun hits dramatic game-winning home run on Opening Day and goes on to win second straight MVP Award, and lead the Brewers into the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Rays -- In a story almost too unbelievable to believe, the underdog Rays again beat out the Red Sox on the season's final day to make the playoffs.

Texas Rangers -- Darvish proves sensational and is in the Cy Young hunt, Hamilton hits 30 home runs, Kinsler goes 30-30 again, and the Rangers stomp the Angels in the AL West.

Washington Nationals -- Strasburg wins the NL ERA title, rookie Bryce Harper hits 25 home runs, Ryan Zimmerman finishes second in MVP vote, and the Nats make the playoffs.

Winner: Washington Nationals

The Nationals become so popular that presidential candidates seek Harper's endorsement.

Best Picture
Detroit Tigers
Los Angeles Angels
New York Yankees
Philadelphia Phillies
Texas Rangers

The winner: Texas Rangers

Those are the teams with the five highest over/under win totals from various betting sites. Since four of the five teams are in the AL, that should theoretically make the Phillies the World Series favorites since their NL competition is viewed as less competitive. If I had to pick one team right now, however, I'd go with the Rangers. They have a deep rotation, solid lineup, depth on the bench and on the pitching staff, and they don't have potential age problems in the lineup like the Yankees and Phillies. They seem to have the most well-rounded team right now.

In January, I wrote a piece on the five best players in baseball, looking at each five-year span since 1969-1973. The most recent five-year span ranked as Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, Joe Mauer, Adrian Gonzalez and Matt Holliday. Considering Pujols is coming off the worst season of his career and just turned 32, and Utley and Mauer suffered through injuries, the title of "best player in baseball" seems more wide open than it has been in decades.

With that in mind, I asked Twitter followers to name their best player in baseball. Here are the results of the first 100 responses:

Troy Tulowitzki: 19 votes
Albert Pujols: 18 votes
Jose Bautista: 13 votes
Matt Kemp: 11.5 votes
Miguel Cabrera: 9 votes
Evan Longoria: 7 votes
Joey Votto: 7 votes
Justin Verlander: 6 votes
Roy Halladay: 4 votes
Robinson Cano: 3 votes
Ryan Braun: 1 vote
Jacoby Ellsbury: 1 vote
Justin Upton: 0.5 vote

The fact that 13 different players received votes and none received even 20 percent shows the lack of consensus on the topic. Rockies shortstop Tulowitzki edged out Pujols in the voting, although that may be have been influenced by the fact that I posted the question around 9 p.m. ET.

Anyway, here were some responses:

still Pujols, but closest it's been in a while. --@sahadevsharma

Verlander. Most dominant pitcher in pitcher heavy time. --@zcrizer

Best is Troy Tulowitzki. Key infield position at SS. Leader. Silver Slugger. Gold Glove. --@Stars5Steve

Tulo. Premier player at a premium position. --@cmiller0

Considering Albert is only a year removed from a 7.5 WAR and .420 wOBA, I'll side with him. Too close to call though. --@LWM_sucks

jose bautista easily --@TdotsFinest11

Miguel Cabrera without a doubt, so consistent you can't deny it, gives you the whole package. --@GadyBlitz

Ryan Braun. Even without the roids. --@oneandonlyburke

If you believe the various tweets, rumors and stories out there, the Toronto Blue Jays may or may not have been the high bidder for Yu Darvish, and they may or may not be in on Prince Fielder.

I'll say this: If both of those guys end up in a Toronto uniform, the Blue Jays suddenly look exciting, imposing and like a potential playoff threat. Yes, we're jumping ahead of ourselves, but let's have some fun. Imagine this squad:

SS Yunel Escobar
2B Kelly Johnson
RF Jose Bautista
1B Prince Fielder
3B Brett Lawrie
DH Adam Lind/Edwin Encarnacion
CF Colby Rasmus
LF Eric Thames/Ben Francisco
C J.P. Arencibia

Bench -- Rajai Davis, Mark Teahen, Jeff Mathis, Travis Snider

SP Yu Darvish
SP Ricky Romero
SP Brandon Morrow
SP Henderson Alvarez
SP Brett Cecil/Kyle Drabek/Dustin McGowan

Bullpen -- Sergio Santos, Carlos Villanueva, Casey Janssen, Luis Perez

The lineup could be deadly, with arguably the best 3-4-5 trio in baseball -- yes, I believe Lawrie will be that good. If Rasmus bounces back, he's another solid bat. You would have effective platoons in left field and DH and a catcher with power. The rotation has some question marks after the top two, but Morrow is close to putting it all together (he had the highest strikeout rate in the American League in 2011, but struggled with runners on base) and Cecil and Drabek remain interesting arms with potential.

What's even more exciting is the Blue Jays have one of the highest regarded farm systems. Catcher Travis d'Arnaud, who tore up Double-A, may be the only Grade A prospect in the bunch, but the lower levels of the system are loaded with pitching prospects like Drew Hutchison, Deck McGuire, Justin Nicolino, Noah Syndergaard and Daniel Norris. Hutchison may be the only one with a 2012 timetable, but it's an excellent collection of arms. Outfielder Jake Marisnick, a third-round pick in 2009, hit .320/.392/.496 with 37 steals in the Midwest League and Double-A outfielder Anthony Gose is one of the toolsiest prospects in the minors.

The Blue Jays are also in terrific shape with their long-term contract situations. Bautista's $14 million salary for the next five seasons now looks like a steal; the Jays have one of baseball's best players for not much more than the Yankees are paying their third-best relief pitcher. Romero is locked up through 2015 at $27.5 million. The only other major outlay on the books is at least $12 million for Adam Lind over the next two seasons. Once the prospects arrive, the Blue Jays will have a crew of inexpensive reinforcements.

That means, in our little dream world, the Jays can absorb the salaries of Darvish and Fielder. The Blue Jays haven't acted like a big-market franchise in years, but Toronto has a bigger metro population than Boston, Detroit or San Francisco-Oakland (not to mention all of Canada, if you want to consider that). What the Blue Jays have lost, of course, is their fan base. When the club ruled Toronto in the early '90s, it drew over four million fans three consecutive years. But after the 1994 strike season, attendance fell to third in the league, then to sixth ... eighth ... 10th ... finally bottoming out in 2010, when the club drew just 1.49 million spectators, an embarrassingly low total for an 85-win team in a large market.

Years of Yankees pennants and Red Sox spending sprees sapped the baseball enthusiasm out of a once great baseball market. That fan base can return. The Jays have put a decent product on the field in recent years (only one season under .500 in the past six). It's time to raise the level of that product to the next step. General manager Alex Anthopoulos may have taken the plunge on Darvish. Will he be willing to take the plunge on Fielder?

Justin Verlander is hoping to become the first pitcher to win the MVP Award since Dennis Eckersley in 1992, and the first starting pitcher since Roger Clemens in 1986. Jacoby Ellsbury is hoping to win the MVP Award despite the late-season collapse of the Red Sox (hey, don’t blame him!). Jose Bautista is hoping his big offensive numbers carry the day even though his team finished 81-81. Curtis Granderson is hoping to win despite a September slump that would leave his .262 batting average as the lowest ever for an MVP hitter. And then there’s Miguel Cabrera, who put up monster numbers in the shadow of his teammate.

Who will win? Nobody knows. Despite a storyline that seemed to focus on him, will a historical bias against pitchers hurt Verlander? There is also a strong historical bias in favor of players on playoff teams, which will help Verlander and Granderson, but work against Ellsbury and Bautista. Will Ellsbury lose some votes to teammates Adrian Gonzalez and Dustin Pedroia, who also had strong seasons? Here’s how the SweetSpot bloggers voted (14 points for first, nine for second, eight for third, etc.)

Jose Bautista, Blue Jays: 296 points (15 first-place votes)
Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox: 256 points (8)
Miguel Cabrera, Tigers: 177 points
Justin Verlander, Tigers: 131 points (1)
Curtis Granderson, Yankees: 114 points (1)
Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox: 44 points
Ian Kinsler, Rangers: 26 points
Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox: 23 points
Alex Gordon, Royals: 12 points
Evan Longoria, Rays: 8 points
CC Sabathia: 7 points
Michael Young, Rangers: 6 points

* * * *

Let’s do the center fielders first, since that’s the easiest comparison. Granderson starts with an advantage of nine more home runs (41 to 32), five more triples (10 to 5), three more hit-by-pitches (12 to 9) and 33 more walks (85 to 52). That’s 87 more bases. But Ellsbury had 20 more doubles (46 to 26), 53 more singles (129 to 76) and four fewer double plays hit into (12 to 8). That’s plus-97 bases for Ellsbury. Ellsbury stole 39 bases (caught stealing 15 times) and Granderson stole 25 bases (10 caught stealing), a minor edge for Ellsbury. Granderson used up 463 outs, Ellsbury 479. Run it through the mixer and Baseball-Reference.com estimates that Ellsbury created 139 runs, or 7.8 runs per 27 outs; Granderson created 121 runs, or 7.0 runs per 27 outs. Granderson played in a slightly higher run-scoring environment.

Some more numbers: Ellsbury hit .366/.420/.691 with runners in scoring position, Granderson hit .242/.303/.516. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Ellsbury hit .400, Granderson hit .208. When the score was tied, Ellsbury had a .900 OPS, Granderson .820. No matter how you slice things, I can’t come up with a way that proves Granderson had the better year at the plate. And the deeper you dig, the more you uncover that Ellsbury played his best in clutch situations and close games. Yankees fans may accuse me of bias or being a Red Sox fan, but such is not that case. Ellsbury was the more productive offensive player.

Then you get to the defense. By all accounts, Ellsbury played a better center field in 2011. I’m not sure he deserved his Gold Glove (Austin Jackson and Peter Bourjos were superb), but the defensive metrics also say he was far superior to Granderson.

Look, both were dynamic players, power-speed combinations at an important defensive position. But I think it’s clear that Ellsbury had the superior season. The one caveat in regard to MVP voting, of course, is that Granderson’s team made the playoffs and Ellsbury’s did not. But don’t blame Ellsbury for Boston’s collapse -- he hit .358 with eight home runs in September. But some voters will hold the collapse against him; to me, it's failed logic to say that Ellsbury is less of an MVP candidate because Jonathan Papelbon couldn’t close out a lead on the final night of the season and Dan Johnson hit a home run off Cory Wade.

* * * *

OK, Ellsbury versus Jose Bautista is a little tougher. Bautista starts off with 11 more home runs (43 to 32) and 80 more walks (132 to 52). He had an awesome year at the plate. But Ellsbury had three more triples (5 to 2), 22 more doubles (46 to 24), 43 more singles (129 to 86), three more hit-by-pitches (9 to 6). Both players grounded into eight double plays. Bautista had 25 more bases, although Ellsbury closes that gap with a 39-to-9 edge in stolen bases. The big difference is Ellsbury used up 479 outs and Bautista 375. Run it through the mixer and Baseball-Reference estimates that Bautista created 149 runs, or 10.7 per 27 outs; Ellsbury created 139 runs, or 7.8 per 27 outs. Both guys played in similar run-scoring environments. Given Ellsbury’s production over the same number of outs as Bautista had, he would have created 108 runs, 41 fewer than Bautista.

But Ellsbury did have the advantage of playing nine more games and, since he hit leadoff, receiving more plate appearances (and thus more chances to affect the game). And then we have to factor in defense: Ellsbury is a good center fielder (+6 runs better than average according to Defensive Runs Saved, +15.6 runs by Ultimate Zone Rating), while Bautista rates as a below-average right fielder in both systems (-1 and -8.6), although he did rate well at third base in his limited time there (+6 and +3.8).

If you remember, Bautista was on fire early on, hitting .363 with 20 home runs through May. He slowed down after that, hitting .257 with 12 home runs in 65 games after the All-Star break. His walk rate actually remained consistent throughout the year, so it doesn’t appear that he started chasing pitches, but maybe frustration did set in from not getting a lot of pitches to hit. And for those who think he was part of the sign-stealing allegations that came out, his home/road splits were actually nearly identical: 1.063 OPS at home, 1.047 on the road. Breaking down some of Bautista’s other numbers, one jumps out at me: He hit .307/.523/.760 in “close and late” situations.

It was an impressive season, MVP-worthy.

If you go by WAR (Wins Above Replacement), it’s essentially a dead heat: If we average FanGraphs WAR and Baseball-Reference WAR, Bautista is at 8.4, Ellsbury 8.3.

But I give the edge to Ellsbury. The season-long excellence matters, but so does his combination of playing center field, hitting leadoff and putting up awesome numbers at the plate. He created runs and prevented runs, while playing an important up-the-middle position. If you watched the Red Sox regularly, he was clearly the best player on the team, the dynamo at the top of the order.

* * * *

Obviously, I’m more of a numbers guy. But even I admit: Sometimes we get too caught up in the numbers. In 10 years, in 25 years, when we think of the 2011 season, what will we remember most other than the dramatic World Series and the greatest final day in baseball history? I think we’ll remember Verlander, the year he turned from flamethrower to pitcher, the year he made The Leap, when we began thinking of him as a guy with Hall of Fame potential, a pitcher who could win 300 games and join that inner circle of greatness. Now, maybe all that won’t happen, but that doesn’t mean the 2011 regular season didn’t belong to Justin Verlander. I think if you ask managers and general managers around baseball if they could have one player from the 2011 season, the majority would say Verlander.

Which is why, I admit, I’m conflicted to say that I think Jacoby Ellsbury deserves the 2011 American League MVP Award.

My unofficial ballot:

1. Ellsbury
2. Verlander
3. Bautista
4. Cabrera
5. Granderson
6. Pedroia
7. Robinson Cano
8. Gonzalez
9. Alex Avila
10. Longoria

We have a few days in the regular season, but before we got caught up in the final hours of the wild-card races and playoff previews, here's my 2011 SweetSpot American League All-Star team.

Catcher: Alex Avila, Tigers (.295/.388/.509, 19 HR, 78 RBI). Maybe the most surprising season in the majors this year, considering he hit .228 last year as a rookie. Avila hit .311 in April and other than a one-RBI July, has kept hitting all season. He ranks sixth in the AL in on-base percentage, 12th in slugging and has thrown 32 percent of base stealers.

First base: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers (.341/.447/.579, 29 HR, 103 RBI, 107 R). Adrian Gonzalez got most of the attention, but it's now clear that Cabrera had the better year with the bat. Cabrera has created more runs, has a higher on-base percentage (thanks to 40 more walks) and a higher slugging percentage. Gonzalez has a few more RBIs, which is strictly a function of having better hitters in front of him. Cabrera is hitting .381 with runners on base and .397 with runners in scoring position.

Second base: Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox (.302/.381/.467, 20 HR, 88 RBI, 101 R, 26 SB). Yankee fans will cry foul, but Pedroia's big edge in OBP (.381 to .351) and even bigger edge with the glove, makes him the selection.

Third base: Evan Longoria, Rays (.240/.345/.482, 29 HR, 95 RBI). Longoria has a chance for 100 RBIs despite missing most of April with a strained oblique. While the batting average is down, the power numbers are there and he owns a terrific glove. So does Adrian Beltre, who is also hitting .293 with 30 home runs, but Beltre has the advantage of a hitter-friendly home park; he's hitting .265 on the road and 23 of his 30 home runs have come at home.

Shortstop: Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians (.273/.333/.463, 25 HR, 92 RBI). The toughest call on the board as Jhonny Peralta, J.J. Hardy, Yunel Escobar, Alexei Ramirez, Erick Aybar and Elvis Andrus all have their supporters and decent claims to best in the league. Cabrera's defense isn't highly regarded by the advanced metrics, but he had a terrific season at the bat, gives you more on the base paths than Peralta, and hit well with runners in scoring position -- .312/.393/.529.

Outfield: Jose Bautista, Blue Jays (.304/.447/.615, 43 HR, 107 RBI, 105 R). Bautista's OPS at home: 1.062. On the road: 1.062.

Outfield: Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox (.322/.377/.551, 31 HR, 103 RBI, 117 R, 38 SB). Obviously, nobody saw this coming. A remarkable all-around season, the best by a Red Sox center fielder since Fred Lynn in 1979.

Outfield: Curtis Granderson, Yankees (.266/.368/.561, 41 HR, 119 RBI, 135 runs). He's tailed off in September (.221, three home runs), costing him a chance to become just the third player since World War II to score 150 runs in a season, but he remains in the thick of the MVP discussion.

Designated hitter: David Ortiz, Red Sox (.307/.397/.557, 29 HR, 96 RBI). Michael Young, with his .338 average and 104 RBIs, has been enormously valuable to the Rangers, especially with his ability to fill in at first, second and third bases. But for pure offensive numbers, Ortiz is the guy.

Starting pitcher: Justin Verlander, Tigers (24-5, 2.40 ERA, 251 IP, 174 H, 57 BB, 250 SO). Yes, wins aren't everything, but he had the most wins in the American League since Bob Welch in 1990.

Starting pitcher: Jered Weaver, Angels (18-8, 2.41 ERA, 235.2 IP, 182 H, 56 BB, 198 SO). Here's how he's been: In one less start than Verlander, he's allowed eight fewer runs.

Starting pitcher: James Shields, Rays (15-12, 2.84 ERA, 240.2 IP, 189 H, 62 BB, 221 SO). Brought back the complete game: His 11 were the most in the AL since 1993. Saddled with poor run support, he didn't win a single game all season when he allowed more than two runs.

Starting pitcher: C.J. Wilson, Rangers (16-7, 2.97 ERA, 221.1 IP, 189 H, 72 BB, 206 SO). He hits the free-agent market this winter and general managers would be salivating to see what he could outside of the Ballpark -- he had a 2.34 ERA on the road.

Starting pitcher: CC Sabathia, Yankees (19-8, 3.00 ERA, 237.1 IP, 230 H, 61 BB, 230 SO). The big man may have had his best season. Now the pressure is on to repeat his 2009 postseason performance.

Setup guy: David Robertson, Yankees (4-0, 34 holds, 1.09 ERA). The Yanks paid big bucks for Rafael Soriano in the offseason, but he went down and Robertson never gave up the big hit as Mariano Rivera's setup guy, allowing just nine runs in 66 innings. He gave up just one home run while fanning 99.

Closer: Jose Valverde, Tigers (2-4, 47 saves, 2.30 ERA). Rivera has a lower ERA and better WHIP, but he's blown fives while Valverde was 47-for-47 in save opportunities. It's not always pretty, but he's you can't deny the job he's done.

Player of the Year: Justin Verlander. He leads the AL in wins, ERA, strikeouts, innings, WHIP, quality starts, opponents' batting average, opponents' on-base percentage and opponents' slugging percentage. He's been the most electrifying performer in the league. More than any other player in the AL, it's been his season.

Justin Verlander beat the A's in Oakland on Sunday to improve his record to 24-5, making him the first Tigers pitcher to win 24 games in a season since Mickey Lolich won 25 in 1971, and the majors' first 24-game winner since Randy Johnson in 2002. Verlander is the first pitcher in Tigers history to win 12 consecutive starts and the first in the big leagues since Johan Santana in 2004. Verlander is just the seventh American League pitcher since World War II to record 24 wins and 240 strikeouts in a season and the first since Ron Guidry in 1978. He threw a no-hitter May 7 at Toronto. He's a cinch for the AL Cy Young Award. He should also be the AL MVP.

Yes, wins is a flawed yardstick by which to measure pitching performance, I get it. A pitcher used to be credited with a win. Now it's almost as if pitchers are ACCUSED of wins if they happen to be presented with more than one or two runs of support by their offense. ("Sir ... I accuse you of WINNING games ... J'accuse!" ) The WAR (wins above replacement-level) metric exists, in part, to measure one player's contribution to the win column versus that of another, and in determining the "value" of a most valuable player that worth in the minds of many voters is a currency paid out in victories. Detroit has won 89 games to date and Verlander has led the way in 24 of them. Let's not get too hung up on the idea of simply handing the MVP trophy to the position player with the sexiest sabermetric stats and disqualify the player who is likely having the most superb season simply because he's a starting pitcher.

The last starting pitcher to win the MVP Award was Roger Clemens in 1986. Clemens also won the Cy Young that year, a double that I'm arguing Verlander should repeat. Granted, each year presents its own unique voting landscape but Clemens won his AL MVP with these numbers 25 years ago, numbers that Verlander has matched or surpassed:


Yankees first baseman Don Mattingly was runner-up to Clemens in that 1986 MVP vote. How do Mattingly's '86 numbers line up with the two players currently leading the American League in WAR? If Verlander's 2011 season appears equivalent to, or perhaps slightly better than Clemens' 1986 season and Clemens' numbers were enough to trump Mattingly, one could argue that this year's two leading position player candidates would have to surpass Mattingly's '86 season to beat out Verlander. Granted, this season isn't complete, but Mattingly's .352 average with 53 doubles and only 35 strikeouts in 677 at-bats may trump Jacoby Ellsbury's average and steals as well as Jose Bautista's home run and on-base totals.


In 1986, Clemens won the AL MVP Award easily, collecting 19 first-place votes and 339 points to Mattingly's five first-place votes and 258 points. Mattingly may have had the superior season, but Clemens won the award and it wasn't close. Things have changed since then. From 1987 through 1998, only once did a starting pitcher finish higher than sixth in an AL MVP vote; 1999 was the tipping point in a seismic shift away from starting pitchers' MVP candidacy in the voters' minds. Boston's Pedro Martinez collected the most first-place votes but fell 13 points shy of Rangers catcher Ivan Rodriguez. Martinez's '99 performance was perhaps the greatest pitching season of his generation but two writers left him off their ballots completely.


Rodriguez had a career season in 1999, batting .332/.356/.558 with 35 HRs and 113 RBIs. The idea, however, that Martinez's value didn't merit a single voting point on two ballots was outrageous. In November of 1999, New York Daily News columnist Bill Madden, now in the writers' wing of the Hall of Fame, wrote that he felt "compelled to express my embarrassment and dismay" over the results of that MVP vote, but the mentality has lingered. Only four times since 1999 has an American League starting pitcher finished in the top 10 in the MVP voting and never higher than fifth. Martinez's pitching was the elite performance of that 1999 season, as Verlander's has been in 2011.

We're lost in numbers nowadays. They are extremely useful tools and provide a much more thorough means of evaluating performance as well as interesting discussion and insight, but they can't serve as a de facto chart to simply calculate a formulaic winner. Roger Clemens won an MVP award when Don Mattingly should have. Ivan Rodriguez won an MVP award when Pedro Martinez should have. The shifting philosophies have made for queasy stomachs and bogged down the navigation process. Take a step back. Reset your compass. Breathe. Ellsbury, Bautista and Curtis Granderson have all had outstanding seasons. Justin Verlander has had that special season. He's the MVP.

Follow Steve Berthiaume on Twitter: @SBerthiaumeESPN.

We talked a lot about the red-hot Detroit Tigers, readers kept sending in trade suggestions for Joey Votto going to the Blue Jays, we talked about Gold Gloves and we discussed the Yankees' potental playoff bench. Is there room for Jorge Posada? All that and much more in the chat transcript.