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Josh Hamilton flipped the bat back and jogged around the bases with his eyes fixed to the ground. There was no fist-pump, no pointing at the dugout, not even a wave to the fans. That’s not how you react when you expect to win games, and Hamilton and the Texas Rangers certainly expect to do that every time they take the field. Boasting the best run differential in the American League, Texas certainly deserves the respect it's being given this year.

But look just two ticks below them in the run-differential standings, and you’ll see a team that may surprise you: The Toronto Blue Jays, the very team that Hamilton beat with his walk-off home run on Saturday afternoon.

Toronto certainly had some hype coming into the season. With the two-time defending home-run king, Jose Bautista, to build around, things up north were only getting better. Add in a full season of emerging superstar Brett Lawrie, who looked like a legitimate All-Star during his brief time in the majors last year, and there seemed to be no reason why the Blue Jays couldn’t find themselves playing October baseball, especially once Bud Selig announced the addition of a second wild-card team in each league.

Well, two months later Bautista is hitting only .234, Lawrie has a meek .672 OPS, and the man who protected Bautista in the lineup over the past two years, Adam Lind, isn’t even on the major league team. Knowing those three facts alone, one would predict that the season hasn’t exactly gone as general manager Alex Anthopoulos and manager John Farrell imagined. Yet even after Saturday’s heartbreaking 13-inning loss to the Rangers, Toronto sits only 1 1/2 games out of a playoff spot with a 24-23 record.

Like almost anything else in baseball, success starts with the starting pitching. Toronto’s top four of Brandon Morrow, Ricky Romero, Kyle Drabek and Henderson Alvarez all have ERAs of 3.86 or lower, with at least five quality starts apiece. That type of production will keep any team afloat.

Morrow in particular has been brilliant. The ex-Mariner was always plagued with command issues that limited his success as a starter. His 8 percent walk rate this year is a full 3 percent lower than his career mark, and would seem to indicate that he has finally gotten a grip commanding his stuff.

Unfortunately for Toronto, each of these four pitchers has a higher FIP than ERA, indicating that all of them are probably due for some regression as the season continues. Don’t be surprised to see the Jays in on any starters who might become available as the trade deadline gets closer, with Zack Greinke as the ultimate prize.

Although Bautista has been struggling, Edwin Encarnacion has been a revelation for the Jays. He has already jacked 15 home runs, only two fewer than he did all of last year, with a robust .929 OPS. That being said, his power is likely to slide off a bit over the coming weeks. His current HR/FB rate of 18.8 percent is much higher than his 12.4 career mark.

Bautista, on the other hand, hasn’t gotten any breaks this season. His .211 BABIP means his average will bounce back soon enough, and it’s not like he’s experiencing a power outage -- he has 12 homers on the year. On top of that, his fly-ball and ground-ball rates are right around his career averages, reflecting that he hasn’t changed anything fundamental with his swing. Just give him time, and there’s every reason to believe Bautista will return to form.

At the moment, the Blue Jays have two big problems besides Bautista’s struggles. The first is their bullpen, something that was supposed to be a strength coming into the season. When Anthopoulos acquired Sergio Santos from the White Sox over the winter, many believed that the Blue Jays had finally found a consistent closer, a position that had been in flux over the past few years. Instead, Santos blew the first two save opportunities he had before being placed on the disabled list with an injured shoulder. The man Anthopoulos acquired to be Santos’ setup man, Francisco Cordero, took over; he was even worse. Casey Janssen has since assumed the role and has done remarkably, not allowing a run since being named the closer. Still, the Jays’ bullpen has almost no depth, with the ageless Darren Oliver as the only other consistent option. This is another area that Toronto will be looking to fix come the end of July if it wants to contend.

The other main obstacle Toronto faces right now is, of course, the division it plays in. The AL East is easily the best division in baseball, if not all of sports. Having to compete with the Red Sox and Yankees every year is tough enough, but now that Tampa Bay is a legitimate power and Baltimore is looking better and better every day (and in first place), there are five legitimate playoff contenders vying for three spots. Toronto is 7-12 against teams in its division, and 17-11 against everyone else. The fact that the Jays have to play 18 games every year against four teams with so much talent is almost unfair.

With a fourth of the season done, Toronto is still very much in the playoff race. Farrell would surely tell you that this team can do better, and the numbers would back him up. Although the Jays saw a sure victory turn into a mirage in the Texas heat Saturday, their future is still bright.

If Toronto acquires an ace and some bullpen depth at the deadline, it should have more than just playoff aspirations. That sort of reinforced Jays club could have championship aspirations. Blue jays traditionally start heading south when the October winds blow in, but this just might be the year where those traditions begin to change.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Alex Convery writes for Fire Brand of the American League, a SweetSpot network affiliate. You can follow him on Twitter here.

• Nelson Cruz's seventh-inning grand slam on Friday night capped off an eight-RBI performance as the Rangers downed Toronto 14-3. Or should we say, another eight-RBI performance. Cruz had one last season (July 22, also against Toronto). Combined with Josh Hamilton's four-homer game earlier in the month, the last three eight-RBI performances have all been posted by Rangers.
• Oakland got one-hit again on Tuesday, this time by the Angels and C.J. Wilson. Last Saturday they had already joined Minnesota and Pittsburgh as the only teams to get no-hit or one-hit twice this season. Not a single team had it happen three times in 2011. The Athletics have done it three times before Memorial Day.
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Jason Miller/US PresswireShin-Soo Choo hopes to keep getting the Indians off to soaring starts.
• The Indians' Shin-Soo Choo led off Thursday night's game against Detroit with a solo home run. It was not just Cleveland's first leadoff homer this season, it was its first home run in the first inning this season. The Indians were the last team to not have a first-inning home run yet in 2012.
• The focus is always on Stephen Strasburg when he pitches. Last Sunday, however, it was on his hitting. Strasburg not only hit the second home run by a pitcher this season, he also singled and scored another run before being replaced. It had been more than five years since a pitcher had a perfect, multi-hit day at the plate, scored at least twice and chipped in a home run. Kip Wells did it for the Cardinals on April 19, 2007. It was a first in Nationals/Expos franchise history. Mike Leake of the Reds, by the way, hit the third pitcher home run of the year on Monday.
• Dan Haren threw a complete-game shutout Thursday against the Mariners. It was the latest in a series of impressive strikeout games as Haren racked up 14 of them (including Alex Liddi four times). But perhaps the most impressive part? Haren didn't walk a single batter.
  It's the most strikeouts to be recorded in a zero-walk shutout since Erik Bedard racked up 15 against the Rangers on July 7, 2007. And it's a first (shutout with 14-plus strikeouts and no walks) in Angels franchise history.
• Giancarlo Stanton’s grand slam on Monday, off Jamie Moyer, left the bat at 133 mph (courtesy ESPN's Home Run Tracker team) and knocked out part of the video board beyond the left-field seats. Stanton joins Brandon Inge as the only players this season with multiple slams.
  It was Stanton's fourth career slam. In 24 seasons in the majors, Moyer has allowed only eight. The last on Aug. 26, 2004, to Abraham Nunez of the Royals.
• Since the start of 2010, the Marlins now lead the National League in grand slams hit; Monday’s was their 12th (one more than the Cardinals, Reds, and Braves).
• The Cubs, already having enough trouble scoring runs (28th out of 30 teams), posted 10 hits on Friday against the Pirates. They failed to score a single run. All the hits were singles, and they went 0-for-12 with runners in scoring position.
  They're the only team this year to reach double digits in hits and still get shut out. It happened just once in 2011 (June 18, by the Dodgers). The Cubs have had one other such game in the past 20 years (June 22, 2009, at Atlanta).

OK, I'll give you Justin Verlander.

I'll even give you Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Austin Jackson.

But five through 25? I think I'll take the Cleveland Indians over the Detroit Tigers.

The Indians beat the Tigers 5-3 on Tuesday, even though Ubaldo Jimenez struggled once again with his control. Relief ace Chris Perez, who criticized Indians fans on Saturday for their lack of support (Cleveland is last in the majors in attendance), was greeted with a thunderous ovation as he came in out of the bullpen in the ninth inning. With two runners on, he struck out Cabrera and got Fielder to ground out.

Just another save. "That's the loudest I've ever been cheered here," Perez said. "I was pumped, the adrenaline was going. It could have gone the other way. I came through. I didn't know which way it was going to go. I was thankful it went the good way."

The good way pushed the Indians to 24-18. The Tigers are 20-22, and for the life of me I can't understand why everyone still thinks Detroit is the better team. Mind you, I'm not saying the Indians are better. I just don't see why the Tigers are better. Just because everyone picked them before the season?

Once you get past those big shiny names on the Tigers' roster, if you want to pinpoint one big difference between the two clubs, it's a little statistic that us sabermetric types love: the old base on balls. The Indians lead the American League with 188 walks, 25 more than any other team; the Tigers have 127 walks, ninth in the league. That patience will go a long ways toward giving Cleveland an offense capable of scoring as many runs as Detroit's (the Indians have outscored the Tigers by one run so far, 184 to 183).

In fact, when you go position by position, you'll see what I mean.

Catcher: Carlos Santana versus Alex Avila. So far, Avila has been unable to match 2011's .366 average on balls in play, the sixth-best average in the majors. Which means he's hitting like he did in 2010. Santana, meanwhile, is a walks machine who hit 27 home runs in 2011.

First base: Casey Kotchman versus Prince Fielder. Obvious edge to Fielder, of course. The most interesting thing about his start (.292/.354/.472) is his walk rate is down from 15.5 percent to 8.5 percent. Part of that is he was intentionally walked 32 times a year ago, just three this year.

Second base: Jason Kipnis versus Ramon Santiago/Ryan Raburn. Please. Big edge to Kipnis with Santiago and Raburn both hitting under .200. Will Detroit make a move here?

Third base: Jack Hannahan/Jose Lopez versus Miguel Cabrera. This may be the first and only time you'll see Jose Lopez mentioned in the same breath as Miguel Cabrera. So far, however, this edge has been minimal. Cabrera is hitting .304/.362/.488, Hannahan .287/.365/.436 but with better defense. According to Defensive Runs Saved, Cabrera has cost the Tigers four runs -- worst among third basemen (tied with Hanley Ramirez).

Shortstop: Asdrubal Cabrera versus Jhonny Peralta. With the Indians preaching plate discipline, check out Cabrera: Last year, 44 walks and 119 strikeouts; this year, 18 walks and just 12 strikeouts. He's hitting .309 with an OBP over .400 but hasn't lost any power. In 2011, he swung at 31 percent of the pitches out of the strike but he has cut that down to 24 percent. Small differences can go a long way. Peralta was a big surprise for Detroit last season but hasn't matched the numbers in the plate or in the field.

Left field: Johnny Damon/Shelley Duncan versus Andy Dirks/Delmon Young. Damon has looked terrible. Dirks has looked great, but too early to evaluate this one.

Center field: Michael Brantley versus Austin Jackson. With his defense and hot start at the plate, Jackson has been as valuable as any player in the American League not named Josh Hamilton.

Right field: Shin-Soo Choo versus Brennan Boesch. This one isn't close and that's with Choo off to a middling start in the power department. Choo has a .391 OBP, Boesch a .271 OBP. Choo is a solid defender while Boesch is slow and lumbering. With his poor start at the plate and poor defense, Boesch has been one of the worst regular in baseball so far. Choo is an underrated asset and I love Manny Acta's decision to move him into the leadoff spot.

Designated hitter: Travis Hafner versus field. Cleveland's designated hitters have six homers and .370 OBP (fourth in the league). Detroit's DHs have one home run and a .238 OBP (13th in the league). Big, big edge to Pronk.

Rotation. With the best pitcher on the planet, Detroit's rotation has posted a 3.87 ERA; without the best pitcher on the planet, Cleveland's rotation has posted a 3.94 ERA. Both teams have played 42 games and Cleveland's starters have thrown 12 more innings. Moving forward, maybe you think Detroit's group will perform better. After all, Doug Fister missed some, Max Scherzer just struck out 15 in game (never mind that the Pirates have been an historic strikeout binge of late) and Rick Porcello will put it together one of these years, because everyone says so. Meanwhile, Ubaldo Jimenez can't throw strikes, Justin Masterson hasn't pitched as well as last year and Derek Lowe is doing it with smoke, mirrors and a deal with the devil. The one thing the Cleveland starters do is keep the ball in the park; they've allowed 20 home runs, second-fewest in the league. Look, maybe you think Scherzer will start pitching better; I'd say so will Masterson. Maybe you're a Porcello believer; I'm not, especially with that infield defense behind him. Lowe is a fluke? Well, let's see how Drew Smyly does as the scouting reports get around on him.

Bullpen. Neither pen has been stellar, as Cleveland's 4.16 ERA ranks 13th in the AL and Detroit's 4.76 ranks 14th. Cleveland's top guys, however, have been pretty solid -- Chris Perez is 14 of 15 in save opportunities while Vinnie Pestano, Joe Smith and Nick Hagadone have pitched well. Detroit's top two of Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit, so dominant a year ago, have both struggled to throw strikes.

I said before the season that I believed the Tigers were drastically overrated. On the Baseball Today podcast late in spring training, I predicted Cleveland would win the division. Unfortunately, when ESPN.com published predictions a few days later, I changed my pick to Detroit. I bought into the hype.

I'm not buying any longer. This division is wide, wide open. (And I haven't even mentioned the White Sox!)

PHOTO OF THE DAY

The Dodgers have two megastars who dominate the NL leaderboards across multiple categories in Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw. But there is another Dodgers player who finds himself in some interesting leaderboard company -- catcher A.J. Ellis.

Ellis had his streak of 28 straight games reaching base safely come to an end in Sunday’s win against the Cardinals. That was tied for the third-longest such streak in baseball this season:

Elvis Andrus , Rangers, 32
Bryan LaHair, Cubs, 30
A.J. Ellis, Dodgers, 28
Joey Votto, Reds, 28
Curtis Granderson, Yankees, 28

Ellis’ 0-for-4 on Sunday dropped him into fifth place among the major league leaders in on-base percentage at .446, behind David Wright, Joey Votto, Paul Konerko and Kemp.

It’s impressive that he’s in that group, and what might be even more impressive is how he ended up in that group.

Ellis is hitting .315 in two-strike counts, the second-highest batting average in the majors behind Martin Prado’s .326.

The reason he finds himself in such counts is because he takes pitches more often than anyone else in baseball. Ellis has swung at 31.5 percent of pitches thrown to him. The next-lowest rate is Ben Zobrist’s 34.2 percent. Patience was a virtue on Friday when he drew a walk-off walk to beat the Cardinals.

Ellis has swung at the first pitch of a plate appearance only seven times out of 132 PAs, although he did swing at the first pitch twice in the series against the Cardinals.

Below is a grid that contrasts Ellis with one of baseball’s most notable free swingers, Josh Hamilton. Ellis might not be in Hamilton’s class, but he’s still enjoying a highly satisfying season.

We closed another week of excellent Baseball Today podcasts with Friday’s edition , as Mark Simon and I reflected on positives in the baseball world, and looked ahead to a fun interleague weekend!

1. Kerry Wood decides to call an end to his career, and we point to his career achievements rather than focus on the negative, including his amazing strikeout legacy.

2. Atlanta Braves ace Brandon Beachy keeps on winning, and keeps on doing it in a far different way than we’ve seen from him before.

3. Interleague play is here! Time for my annual rant on why it’s not only about the teams from Chicago, New York and Los Angeles meeting, but for that 10-year-old kid in Kansas City finally getting to see Justin Upton hit.

4. Our emailers want to discuss Emmanuel Burriss, the Pittsburgh Alleghenys and really, so much more, and we want what our emailers want!

5. Our weekend preview focuses on numerous series in which teams with similar records face off, from Pirates-Tigers to the battle of the Beltway and more. Plus, what to expect from Albert Pujols, Jose Bautista, Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Hamilton!

So download and listen to Friday’s fun Baseball Today, and have a great weekend! Power Rankings on Monday!

At the start of the week, the Texas Rangers were 23-12 and had outscored their opponents by 80 runs. This put them on pace for 106 wins and a run differential of +370 runs. Just to show how dominant that pace was, here are the last 10 MLB-leading run differentials:

2011: Yankees, +210
2010: Yankees, +166
2009: Dodgers, +169
2008: Cubs, +184
2007: Red Sox, +210
2006: Yankees, +163
2005: Cardinals, +171
2004: Cardinals, +196
2003: Braves, +167
2002: Angels, +207

In fact, that 370 would be one of the highest figures ever. The record belongs to the 1939 Yankees at +411 runs. Since World War II, the only teams to reach a run differential of +300 were the 1998 Yankees (+306) and 2001 Mariners (+300). Those two teams won 114 and 116 games, respectively.

Anyway, that was on Monday. Eric Karabell and I taped the above video and the Rangers promptly lost two games to the Royals before rebounding with a win on Wednesday. The Orioles and Rays now have an identical W-L record of 24-14, although the Rangers' run differential remains much more impressive (the Orioles are +16, the Rays +17). The Rangers' current paces are 102 wins and +332.

The caveat, of course, is that's it early. Back in 2010, the Tampa Bay Rays were 30-11 and had outscored their opponents 225 to 128. They were on pace for 118 wins and a run differential of +383. They finished with 96 wins and +153.

One advantage the Rangers have compared to that 2010 Tampa Bay team, however, is that they'll get to play the A's and Mariners 38 times instead of 36 against the Yankees and Red Sox. Wednesday's win over the A's was the Rangers' first game against Oakland and they've played just four against Seattle. That means of their 124 remaining games, 26.7 percent are against the A's and Mariners. They also get the Astros six games in interleague play and 12 against the NL West (but miss the Dodgers). And if the Angels don't improve, that's another 16 games against a mediocre club.

So I still think the Rangers have an excellent shot at 100 wins, even if Josh Hamilton doesn't hit .400 all season.

What do you think?

Forget Albert Pujols. There's another reason to watch the Los Angeles Angels, and his name is Mike Trout.

For all the hype Bryce Harper has rightfully received, it's time to start giving a few headlines to another rookie phenom, time to give the Left Coast a little love. Trout went 3-for-4 with a home run, a stolen base and three runs scored in the Angels' 4-0 victory over the A's on Tuesday. In 15 games since getting recalled from Triple-A, Trout is hitting .316 BA/.369 OBP/.561 SLG, reminding Angels fans what an All-Star batting line is supposed to look like and why a homegrown, five-tool rookie with young, fresh legs is a player to get more pumped about watching than a money-for-hire Hall of Famer you purchased on the free-agent market.

So while we wait for Pujols to get untracked, maybe the Angels' answer to their offensive prayers -- they've been shut out an MLB-leading eight times -- is a kid who doesn't turn 21 until August.

Against Bartolo Colon, he took a middle-in fastball and crushed it just to the right of center field, off the back wall behind the center-field fence in Anaheim. There aren't many leadoff hitters who can mash a pitch with that type of authority. The other day, he showcased his quick, compact swing, yanking a 2-1 fastball from Yu Darvish well over the left-field fence in Texas. His first home run came on a 1-0 fastball off Toronto's Kyle Drabek, a 93 mph heater low in the zone that Trout hit to left-center.

I think those returns are pretty clear: Trout can do some serious damage when he gets into a fastball count.

Trout is even faster than Harper and much more advanced defensively (although he lacks Harper's arm). And for all the awe for Harper's quick rise, Trout is only a year older. Like Harper, he debuted in the majors while still 19 years old. Like the previous two 19-year-old center-field phenoms -- a couple of guys named Andruw Jones and Ken Griffey Jr. -- Trout has that broad range of skills that should make him a franchise player as he matures.

My favorite aspect of the Trout/Harper comparisons is that the two will always be linked, even though they play in different leagues and cities three time zones apart. Just like we debated Rodriguez and Jeter and Garciaparra back in the late '90s, or like New Yorkers debated Mays and Mantle and Snider in the 1950s, I'm sure we'll be endlessly debating Trout and Harper for years to come.

The other highly rated prospects entering the season were Tampa Bay Rays lefty Matt Moore and Mariners catcher/designed hitter Jesus Montero. They aren't off to impressive starts like Trout and Harper, but let's take a closer look at them as well.

Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
I'll make this one brief. We've seen Harper's lightning-quick bat speed and raw power with his home runs in back-to-back games -- one blast to dead center and the one Tuesday to deep right-center. We've also seen a few misplays in the field, however, from losing a ball in the darkened skies Sunday to dropping a fly ball Monday.

And of course, we've seen the rocket arm and the top-grade athleticism. There's no reason to believe he can't be a superb fielder with more experience. I think the biggest positive is his strikeout rate hasn't been excessive, with 11 in 60 at-bats. Along with his ability to hit left-handers, that was the big concern of his premature call-up. While there were initial thoughts that his time in the majors would be temporary, his play and the Nationals' injuries mean he's here to stay.

Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays
When I polled the SweetSpot network bloggers before the season for their American League rookie of the year predictions, Moore came out on top, outpointing Darvish. I wasn't quite as optimistic, as I believed Moore's spectacular playoff performance against the Rangers raised expectations to unrealistic levels. The only rookie starter since 2000 to pitch at least 162 innings with an ERA less than 3.00 was Jeremy Hellickson, and his flukey .224 average on balls in play had something to do with that. With Moore, I still wanted to see a guy who had the consistent command needed to dominate in the majors.

That's been a big issue with him so far, as he's walked 22 batters in 39 innings, a rate of 5.1 walks per nine. As Justin Havens of ESPN Stats & Info points out, Moore also has struggled with runners on base:


Justin also writes that Moore "continues to leave entirely too many balls up in the zone, ranking sixth out of 115 pitchers in percentage of total pitches 'up' in the zone." This ties into Moore having the third-highest walk rate (12.4 percent) among starters, behind only Ubaldo Jimenez and Drabek, and six home runs allowed in seven starts.

There are no major issues here, other than pointing out that most young pitchers do go through a learning curve. Hellickson -- who doesn't have the raw stuff Moore owns -- set the bar high with his own rookie campaign, but that type of season is the exception.

Jesus Montero, Seattle Mariners
It's also a mixed bag so far with Montero. With five home runs, he's displayed the power stroke scouts projected. His overall batting line of .256/.285/.411, however, isn't much to get excited about, as the occasional long ball is marred by a poor 29/6 strikeout/walk ratio.

There are a few things going on here. He has expanded the strike zone, swinging at 36.2 percent of pitches outside the strike zone. That's not necessarily a career-killing attribute (Josh Hamilton currently has the second-highest rate in the majors), but it's among the 30 worst percentages so far. The bigger problem is he isn't making contract on those pitches and certainly not good contact. He's swinging and missing at those pitches 56.6 percent of the time, which again places him among the 30 worst rates.

When you dig deeper into the numbers, it's pretty clear what's happening. Check out the heat maps below. On the left, Montero against "hard" stuff, and on the right, Montero against "soft" stuff.



Against "hard" stuff, he's hitting .362 (25-for-69) with four home runs and five doubles. Against "soft" stuff, he's hitting .133 (8-for-60) with one home run and no doubles. So if pitchers get ahead in the count, they can get Montero to chase the offspeed stuff out of the zone.

A final issue is Montero's ability -- or lack of it -- to pull the ball. While he's known for his opposite-field power, I'm not sure you can live off that trait alone. Of Montero's five home runs, two have gone to right-center, one to center and two to left-center. His hit chart is littered with fly balls to right field and the right-field line. Frankly, he just hasn't shown the ability to pull the ball with any authority. To me, this reads like a guy who can be jammed inside and will chase pitches outside. Look, the pitch recognition should improve, but he's going to have to figure out how to do more damage to all fields.

The injury to Miguel Olivo also forced the Mariners to play Montero more regularly behind the plate. I haven't seen the defensive butcher advertised, but he's clearly a work in progress. A couple of starts ago, Kevin Millwood was constantly shaking him off. However, the two were on the same page in Millwood's win over the Yankees on Sunday. Opponents are 8-for-10 stealing bases off him.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

A few days before Josh Hamilton had his historic four-homer game, I had written a post asking readers to vote for the greatest day by a hitter in major league history.

After Hamilton set an American League record with his 18 total bases, I was on an email chain in which the writer Allen Barra posited the greatest game ever wasn't one of the guys who hit four home runs or drove in 12 runs. "The best game ever was Ty Cobb on May 5, 1925, Detroit Tigers against the St. Louis Browns, when Cobb hit three home runs in one game," Allen wrote. "The Tigers team had just 50 home runs that season, and the entire AL had just 533."

Cobb went 6-for-6 that day in St. Louis, adding a double and two singles. The next day he hit two more home runs. Cobb's power outburst has long been presented as evidence of his desire to show he could hit home runs like Babe Ruth, that he was tired of everyone praising Ruth and dismissing his mere singles.

In Charles C. Alexander's biography of Cobb, he cites a story of Cobb sitting in the dugout before the game and telling a sportswriter, "I'll show you something today. I'm going for home runs for the first time in my career."

See? Cobb could have hit 40 or 50 home runs, just like Ruth. Alexander writes, "He had ... made his point: There were different ways to play baseball. He still loved the old game, still preferred most of the time to 'nip' at the ball, as Walter Johnson had once described his hitting style. But he could also clout with the musclemen when he chose."

You know what? I think the whole notion is a bunch of rubbish. The quote that Alexander cites comes not from a contemporaneous account, but from a 1961 article in The Sporting News that ran a few months after Cobb died. The story was told by Sid Keener, a former sportswriter and then the 73-year-old director of the Hall of Fame. You don't think that perhaps a little myth-making was at work here?

Aside from that, there are two other major loopholes in this legend.

Ruth first cracked the 50-homer barrier in 1920. Why did Cobb wait until 1925 -- when he was 38 years old -- to show he could "clout with the musclemen" if he wanted? There's also the fact that after that five-homer outburst, Cobb hit just seven home runs the remainder of the season, finishing with 12 to match his career-best.

Why did he suddenly stop hitting home runs? The Tigers won those two games in St. Louis, scoring 25 runs. Cobb didn't homer again until June 1, even though the Tigers went just 13-12 in games he played. From July 12 through Aug. 22, the Tigers went 8-16 in games Cobb played and he went homerless. Surely, a few home runs may have helped the Tigers win another game or two, no?

Look, I'm sure if Cobb had arrived in the major leagues in 1920 he would have adopted more easily to the modern game and hit a few more home runs. He was a big guy for his era -- 6-foot-1 -- and had extra-base power. But in the end, this tale doesn't add up. Ty Cobb had a great game -- or a great two games. But the idea that he could have matched Ruth's power approach is absurd, as ridiculous as those who suggest Ichiro could hit more home runs if only he wanted to.

SweetSpot blogger Dave Schoenfield and I gathered for Monday’s Baseball Today podcast with our big top-10 lists of best teams and much more!

1. Seattle Mariners announcer Dave Sims talked about the Mariners, whether Ichiro will be in a Mariners uniform next season, Jesus Montero, cheering for the home team, the many young players on the horizon and ... hats.

2. Power Rankings day! Dave, Mark Simon and I each submitted our lists, with some similarities but alas, not all division leaders made it. And which NL team is best?

3. How do you pitch to Texas Rangers superstar Josh Hamilton? And how good are the Rangers? We discuss.

4. What has Detroit Tigers lefty Drew Smyly done that hadn’t been done ... ever?

5. We take a closer look at Monday’s schedule, from ESPN’s Cubs-Cardinals tilt to an important series for last season’s NL West champs!

So download and listen to Monday’s Baseball Today podcast and come right back with us Tuesday for me and Keith Law!

The Atlanta Braves pulled off an impressive sweep in St. Louis over the weekend to take over the first place in the National League East. Most impressively, they did it by scoring 23 runs in the three games. While it's not a surprise the Braves are contenders early on, what is surprising is they've done it more with their bats than their arms. Here is our list of top 10 early season surprises.

1. The Atlanta Braves' offense.

As Diane Firstman wrote the other day on the SweetSpot blog, the Braves have a chance at a historic turnaround on offense. A year ago, they averaged 3.96 runs per game, 8 percent below the major league average of 4.28 runs per game. This year, they're averaging 5.40 runs while the major league average has fallen to 4.18. That's 29 percent better, a 37 percent increase over 2011. Only a handful of teams have shown a 30 percent improvement like that year-to-year.

Some of the improvement was expected --- Jason Heyward and Martin Prado hitting better, for example. Michael Bourn has been superlative in the leadoff spot, hitting .336 with a .399 on-base percentage, but the biggest surprise has perhaps been the old man, Chipper Jones, who is hitting .299 and slugging .506. He has 22 RBIs in 24 games. With rookie shortstop Tyler Pastornicky holding his own, the Braves go eight deep and the scary thing is catcher Brian McCann hasn't really started to hit and you get the feeling Heyward is ready to explode.

2. The Baltimore Orioles are in first place.

The Orioles bounced back from losing three of four to the Texas Rangers by winning their weekend series against the Rays to maintain a one-game lead over Tampa. The Orioles live and die by the home run on offense -- they lead the majors with 54; their .310 OBP, however, ranks just 17th in the majors. Jake Arrieta got pounded again on Sunday and has allowed 13 runs his past two starts after that eight-inning shutout performance against the Yankees. That means three-fifths of Baltimore rotation has an ERA over 5.00. So, yes, there are obvious question marks here. But for now the Orioles have Matt Wieters and Adam Jones mashing, a lights-out bullpen and Jason Hammel pitching like an ace.

3. The Oakland Athletics and Houston Astros aren't terrible.

I heard a lot of mocking of the A's and Astros heading into the season -- predictions of 105 losses, 110, maybe even 115. Both teams have played solid baseball. The A's are 18-17 and as always Billy Beane has constructed a pitching staff that will keep the A's respectable. Brandon McCarthy, Bartolo Colon and Tommy Milone throw strikes, while rookie Jarrod Parker has looked good in his first four starts. Set-up man Ryan Cook, acquired with Parker in the Trevor Cahill trade, hasn't allowed a run in 16.2 innings (and hardly a hit -- opponents are batting .060 against him.)

The Astros, meanwhile, are 15-19 but have actually outscored their opponents. Jose Altuve is as fun as any player in the game, Jed Lowrie has played well and veteran Wandy Rodriguez could be an attractive trade chip if he keeps pitching like this. The Astros aren't going to be playoff contenders, but at least they've giving their fans a reason to show up this summer.

4. Bryan LaHair and Jeff Samardzija.

The Chicago Cubs are bad team but have two of the season's best individual stories. Minor league vet LaHair is putting up All-Star numbers, hitting .340/.437/.670. Samardzija has been a revelation in the rotation, considering he had trouble throwing strikes as a reliever in 2011. His average fastball velocity of 94.7 mph trails only Stephen Strasburg among starters and his changeup has become one of the best strikeout pitches in the game. With a 4-1 record and 2.89 ERA, the former Notre Dame wide receiver has turned into must-see viewing for Cubs fans.

5. Derek Jeter.

Admit it, you saw more decline, you thought maybe he was just about done. Maybe you wanted him to be done. Jeter is hitting .372, has 14 extra-base hits, hasn't missed a game, and is playing like 27-year-old Jeter, not 37-year-old Jeter.

6. A.J. Ellis.

OK, Matt Kemp has been superhuman and Chris Capuano and Ted Lilly are both 5-0 but my favorite story on the team that owns baseball's best record is their obscure 31-year-old catcher who ranks third in the majors in OBP -- his .462 OBP higher than Josh Hamilton's .455. Ellis' 21 walks has been boosted by five freebies but the on-base skills are legit. Hey, Don, how about moving Ellis in front of Kemp in the lineup?

7. Bryce Harper.

The Nationals suffered a devastating injury with the loss of catcher Wilson Ramos this weekend, the latest in a string of injuries that includes Michael Morse, Jayson Werth and Drew Storen. Despite that, the Nationals are just a half-game behind the Braves in the NL East thanks to their dominant rotation. We certainly didn't expect Harper to be up so soon, but the 19-year-old has held his own. Trouble is, however, the injuries mean Harper may have to do more than hold his own. I wouldn't bet against him.

8. Parity rules the day.

The Red Sox, Angels and Phillies are in last place.

9. David Wright hitting .400.

When Wright fractured his pinkie four games into the season, Mets fans feared the worst for their franchise third baseman who has battled a string of injuries in recent season. Instead, Wright missed a few games and hasn't stopped hitting since. He's hitting .444 over his past 14 games and the Mets are 19-15 and should not be underestimated.

10. Pitchers are still throwing strikes to Hamilton.

Only Clint Barmes has swung at a higher percentage of pitches outside the strike zone. Hamilton swings at the first pitch over 50 percent of the time. And yet ... OK, easier said than done. As Chipper said after Hamilton swatted four home runs against the Orioles, "He's a bad man."

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Baseball’s top sluggers were in the news as Keith Law and I gathered to record Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast as one of them kept on hitting home runs Tuesday and the other didn’t get the chance.

1. Kudos to Josh Hamilton for a record-tying performance in Baltimore, but what does his excellent start to the season mean for his future contract negotiations?

2. Meanwhile in Los Angeles, another poor managerial decision -- they’re everywhere, frankly -- takes the bat out of Matt Kemp’s able hands. We talk about bad managers, contract extensions and more.

3. Do managers really listen to their front office, or is it like the scene in "Moneyball" with Art Howe and Billy Beane? Law shares some inside information.

4. Emailers have thoughts about Pittsburgh’s front office, the Cardinals’ run differential, Mark Prior, Kerry Wood and the Olympics.

5. Keith’s top 100 prospects are posted and he gives insight to strengths, weaknesses and other themes to watch about the upcoming draft.

So download and listen to Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast, and not only because we tell you Hamilton can’t repeat the feat in Baltimore. For many other reasons!

First base: Donnie Buntball. The situation: The Giants lead the Dodgers 2-1 in the bottom of the eighth, no outs, runners at first and second, Mark Ellis up, Matt Kemp on deck. What do you do? Don Mattingly had Ellis bunt. The Giants of course put Kemp on and brought in lefty killer Javier Lopez to face Andre Ethier, who grounded into a double play to snuff the rally. As Dodger Thoughts author Jon Weisman headlined, "That's why you don't bunt with Matt Kemp on deck." There were three main problems with bunting here: (1) You already had the tying run in scoring position and with two runners on and nobody out, you were set up for a potential big inning; (2) Ellis isn't exactly Chone Figgins, as he has a .377 OBP this season; maybe he would have drawn a walk against a tiring Ryan Vogelsong or gotten a hit himself; (3) Most importantly, you knew the Giants would walk Kemp and bring in a lefty to face Ethier. While Ethier has been decent versus left-handers this season (.286/.352/.449), he's been terrible in the past (.220 with 40 strikeouts in 151 PAs in 2011) and Lopez held lefties to a .163 average in 2011. I'm guessing Mattingly won't be employing that bunt again anytime soon.

Second base: Rockies call up Friedrich. After dominating Class A ball in 2009, Rockies left-hander Christian Friedrich was one of the top pitching prospects in the game. Keith Law ranked him No. 36 on his top 100 list entering 2010. But after struggling for two years in Double-A and battling some arm problems, Friedrich spent a few days over the winter working out with Cliff Lee. Friedrich told MLB.com that Lee reinforced the importance of downhill plane. He also talked with Jamie Moyer during spring training. The results in Triple-A were positive: 30 innings, 23 hits, four walks and 27 strikeouts. He makes his debut today in San Diego, looking to end the Rockies' five-game skid.

Third base: Dempster's bad luck. Cubs starter Ryan Dempster is averaging seven innings per start in his five outings and has allowed six runs, has a 36/10 strikeout/walk ratio and 1.02 ERA. He's 0-1, drawing a no-decision on Tuesday after allowing one run in seven innings in the Cubs' 3-1 loss to the Braves. And then there's Clay Buchholz, the worst starter in baseball so far. He's allowed 34 runs in 32.2 innings, including 10 home runs, and has a 9.09 ERA. He 3-1.

Home plate: Tweet of the day.

Asked #Braves Chipper about #Rangers Josh Hamilton's swings on 4 HRs. He looked up from crossword puzzle and said: "He's a bad man."

— David O'Brien (@ajcbraves) May 9, 2012

Yep, just another boring April of baseball where nothing exciting happened. We only had one of the greatest April performances of all time. We had a perfect game. We saw the Red Sox blow a 9-0 lead at home to the Yankees -- and lose by six runs. We saw one of the best hitters of all time turn into one of the worst players in the game, at least for a month. We saw pitchers dominate -- 20 starters have an ERA under 2.00. We saw a 19-year-old phenom make his major league debut. We saw a venerable veteran hit .389 with 37 hits. To cap it off, on the final day of the month we saw Ryan Braun hit three home runs out of the Grand Canyon -- aka, Petco Park.

Braun is the first player to hit three home runs at Petco, no mean feat considering it's something like 748 feet to the power alleys. As impressive as that achievement is, it doesn't quite land Braun on our all-April All-Star team.

C: Yadier Molina, Cardinals (.316/.369/.592, 4 HR, 15 RBIs)
Molina is proving last season's power surge was no fluke as he ripped out nine doubles and four home runs in April. He's nailed 43 percent of basestealers and the Cardinals have a 2.61 staff ERA. Terms like team leader are thrown out a bit loosely, but there's little doubt Molina is the heart and soul of the Cards. If not for Matt Kemp, you could make a case for Molina as April's MVP.

1B: Bryan LaHair, Cubs (.390/.470/.780, 5 HR, 14 RBIs)
One of the feel-good stories of the month, the 29-year-old minor league veteran was given the first base job only as a placeholder for prospect Anthony Rizzo. He may not give it up quite so easily. Thirteen of his 23 hits have been for extra bases and, incredibly, he's batting .676 when not striking out. Yeah, yeah ... that impossible to keep up, of course. Still, he could make for some interesting trade bait for a team in a pennant looking for some power at first base. (Yes, we mean you, Los Angeles Dodgers.)

2B: Ian Kinsler, Rangers (.298/.400/.574, 5 HR, 12 RBIs)
Most impressively: 24 runs in 23 games. Since 1950, only 11 times has a player scored 140 runs in a season. Only one of those -- Jeff Bagwell in 2000 -- scored 150 runs. If Kinsler can maintain that .400 OBP -- 45 points higher than last season -- he may have a shot.

3B: David Wright, Mets (.389/.494/.569, 3 HR, 14 RBIs)
Last season was a rough one for third basemen, as several of the top guys landed on the DL. Things got so bad that Scott Rolen made the NL All-Star team. It's a different story in 2012, as six regulars are hitting over .300, Miguel Cabrera is hitting .298 with power and Chase Headley is off to a terrific start for the Padres. But Wright kept his OBP over .500 until the final day of April. Cardinals fans will point to David Freese's 20 RBIs, but Wright's big lead in walks (16 to four) gives him the edge.

SS: Derek Jeter, Yankees (.394/.437/.585, 4 HR, 13 RBIs)
So much for needing a rest. Jeter played every game this month (four starts at DH) and led the majors with 37 hits. His 10 extra-base hits are already nearly one-third of the 34 he punched out a year ago. The range at shortstop remains problematic, but nobody seems to care right now.

LF: Josh Hamilton, Rangers (.395/.438/.744, 9 HR, 25 RBIs
OK, maybe I cheated a little bit here: Hamilton has played twice as many innings in center in left. Sorry, Josh Willingham.

CF: Matt Kemp, Dodgers (.417/.490/.893, 12 HR, 25 RBIs)
We bow down to your greatness, Mr. Kemp, and can't wait to see what you do in May.

RF: Corey Hart, Brewers (.270/.360/.635, 6 HR, 13 RBIs
Not bad for a guy who had knee surgery in early March and wasn't expected to be ready for the start of the season.

DH: David Ortiz, Red Sox (.405/.457/.726, 6 HR, 20 RBIs)
Remember April and May of 2009, when Big Papi hit .185 with one home run? "Trust me, I am not finished," Ortiz said in early June of that year. Many Red Sox fans wanted the club to release him. A Boston columnist called for the club to do so. Maybe it did come close to doing so.

P: Jake Peavy, White Sox (3-1, 1.67, 37.2 IP, 21 H, 5 BB, 33 SO
My pitcher of the month for April, it's great to see Peavy healthy and slinging again. He put together a terrific first five starts, in part because had to face Boston, Texas, Detroit and Baltimore in four of those games.

P: Stephen Strasburg, Nationals (2-0, 1.13, 32 IP, 22 H, 6 BB, 34 SO
He's allowed four runs in five starts ... and has two victories. Please explain to your friends why wins are overrated. He's been absolutely dominant, hasn't allowed a home run and with the Nationals leading the NL East, the speculation has already heated about what the club will do about Strasburg's supposed innings limit if the club is in the pennant race in September. We'll worry about that then; for now, let's enjoy a master at work.

RP: Aroldis Chapman, Reds (2-0, 0.00, 12.1 IP, 5 H, 4 BB, 21 SO)
He's gotten 37 outs -- so 57 percent of his outs have come via the strikeout. It leaves one to wonder: How would he do starting? Please, Dusty, give us the chance to find out.

Guy I wanted to put on the team: Jose Altuve, Astros (.360/.404/.547)
The little guy can flat rake. Enjoy, Astros fans.

Strikeouts don't mean everything award: Derek Lowe, Indians
Lowe is 4-1 with a 2.27 ERA even though he has just nine strikeouts in five starts.

Most un-All-Star: Albert Pujols, Angels (.217/.265/.304, 0 HR, 4 RBIs)
Sorry, with $240 million comes more pressure, more scrutiny and expectations that maybe you'll hit one or two home runs per month. Pujols was arguably the worst player in baseball in April. Who would have thought we'd ever hear such words?

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter

First base: Nate the great. Giants outfielder Nate Schierholtz had a day to remember as the Giants swept a doubleheader from the Mets. In the opener, he went 3-for-5 with a triple and home run. In the nightcap (do they call it a nightcap?), he went 3-for-5 with another triple. His six hits is as many (or more) as the Pirates have gotten in eight of their 15 games. Tim Lincecum won his first game, but he scuffled through five innings, throwing 108 pitches and walking five batters. He escaped with just one run allowed, but it was hardly the effort to suggest he's back on track. By the way, Pablo Sandoval's home run in the nightcap (sticking with it) was a mammoth blast high into the second deck at Citi Field.

Second base: A's are Peaved. Fact I did not know until tonight: Jake Peavy did not throw a complete game when he won the National League Cy Young Award in 2007. He threw just the 10th one of his career on Monday night, beating the A's 4-0 with a 107-pitch, three-hit gem. He's now 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA and all his peripherals are outstanding: .172 average allowed, 26/4 strikeout/walk ratio, one home run in 28.2 innings. His other three starts came against Texas, Detroit and Baltimore, so this all positive for Peavy. He hasn't made 20 starts in a season since 2008 but if he stays healthy, suddenly the White Sox look five-deep in their rotation -- and never count out a team with a deep rotation. The Sox are tied with the Tigers at 10-6 and have a +18 run differential compared to Detroit's +5. As White Sox utilityman Brent Lillibridge tweeted after the game, "Hop on #WhiteSox fans. It's starting to get fun around here. @JakePeavy_44 outstanding tonight, commanded from the 1st pitch."

Third base: Thanks, Pudge. Ivan Rodriguez officially retired on Monday and threw out the first pitch at the Rangers' game. But he added a cool twist to the usual ceremonial throw.

Home plate: Tweet of the day. ESPN play-by-play announcer Dan Shulman with a novel suggestion that we should all rally behind ...

I vote that this year they decide home field in the World Series by having Matt Kemp and Josh Hamilton square off in a home run derby #mlb

— Dan Shulman (@DShulman_ESPN) April 24, 2012

Josh Hamilton is hotter than a scorching late July afternoon in Dallas during the middle of a dry spell. He's hitting .440, ripping doubles and home runs all over major league ballparks, and generally making hitting a baseball appear much easier than it actually is.

So my suggestion to opposing pitchers: Quit throwing him strikes.

You see, as talented as Hamilton is -- maybe the best pure hitting ability in the game, with his pretty swing and awesome raw power -- he does have one flaw. He'll expand the strike zone.

Here is a list of the 15 best hitters in baseball since 2008, using the wOBA stat from FanGraphs.com (minimum 2,000 plate appearances). The chart includes each player's triple-slash batting line, his wOBA, plus his walk percentage and O-Swing percentage, the rate he swings at pitches out of the strike zone.



As you can see, only Ryan Braun has a walk rate in the vicinity of Hamilton's. His O-Swing percentage is easily the highest of the 15, and he swings at pitches out of the zone nearly 16 percent more often than Kevin Youkilis or Joe Mauer. In fact, of all hitters with at least 2,000 PAs since 2008, only Vladimir Guerrero, A.J. Pierzynski, Alfonso Soriano, Delmon Young, Jeff Francoeur and Adam Jones had a higher O-Swing percentage than Hamilton.

And as talented as Hamilton is, he does suffer when he expands the zone. You can see his various batting averages below (since 2009) on pitches in the zone and out of the zone.



In 2012, Hamilton has drawn one walk in 52 plate appearances. If anything, he may be getting more aggressive. His walk rate his first season in Texas was 9.1 percent; it was down to 7.3 percent in 2011. Pitchers are aware of Hamilton's willingness to expand the zone -- in fact, of all hitters since 2008 with 2,000 PAs, only Prince Fielder and Guerrero have seen fewer pitches in the zone. So far this season, however, 47 percent of the pitches Hamilton has seen have been strikes, up from 39.6 percent a season ago. So why not keep throwing pitches off the black, or at least more of them? If he starts showing more patience and lays off those pitches, then you adjust. Until then, make him chase.

Of course, that's much easier said than done.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.