SweetSpot: Julio Teheran



Baseball lore is full of great scouting stories, like the tale of the scout who was driving through rural Maryland one day and stopped to ask a kid working in a field for directions. The kid -- future Hall of Fame Jimmie Foxx -- raised his plow with one arm and pointed: "That way."

The scout, seeing the kid's raw strength, asked him the obvious question: "Do you play baseball?"

Who knows, maybe Brandon Beachy will become one of those stories.

Beachy played mostly third base and first base at Indiana Wesleyan and pitched a little, but went undrafted. A Braves area scout named Gene Kerns saw Beachy one July evening pitching in relief in the Virginia Valley League, a college summer league. He saw a kid with good size throwing in the low 90s.

After the game, he asked Beachy if he'd been drafted. (He wouldn't be allowed to talk to him if he had.) When Beachy said no, Kerns, as he relayed in a 2011 interview, then asked the obvious question: "Do you have an interest in professional baseball?"

Kerns convinced the club to sign him as a non-drafted free agent. Barely two years later, Beachy was in the major leagues. Now, after a sterling rookie season, Beachy is 5-1 after throwing his first major league complete game and shutout in a 7-0 victory over the Marlins. Beachy threw 122 pitches, struck out six, walked nobody, allowed four singles and one double and showcased why he leads the major leagues with a 1.33 ERA.

In less than four years he has gone from an undrafted college infielder to minor league reliever to maybe-he's-a-prospect to major league starter to ... well, what do we call him now? The most underrated pitcher in baseball? A possible All-Star? I'm not sure. For now, let's just call him very good.

Beachy isn't overpowering, usually settling in around 90-91 mph with his four-seamer, occasionally cranking it up to 94. He gets some running sink/cut on his fastball, although it's not a cutter. He tweeted earlier this season that "No, I don't throw a cutter. Just 4-seams and an occasional 2." He mixes in a changeup, a slow curve (72-74 mph) that he commands well and a slider. Yes, he relies to some extend on a deceptive delivery that makes it difficult for batters to pick up the ball, but he's excelling on more than deception; his stuff is better than advertised.

He was in control all game against the Marlins. They did get two runners on with two out in the fifth, but Jose Reyes lined out to right. In the seventh, Giancarlo Stanton doubled to lead off the inning and Chipper Jones made a nice diving stop on Gaby Sanchez for the first out. Beachy induced Emilio Bonifacio to ground out to second on a 94-mph four-seamer and then struck out Brett Hayes on a lovely changeup.

From there it was six up, six down and the shutout.

Last season, Baseball America ranked Beachy as Atlanta's No. 8 prospect, behind more heralded arms Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado, Mike Minor and Arodys Vizcaino. But Beachy beat out Minor -- a former No. 1 pick -- for the No. 5 rotation slot out of spring training and never looked back. He made 25 starts and finished 7-3 with a 3.68 ERA, striking out 169 batters in 141.2 innings, the highest strikeout in the majors for pitchers with at least 100 innings.

His biggest issue as a rookie was an inability to pitch deep into games. The strikeouts were nice, but also meant he ran up his pitch counts, leading to early exits. He pitched seven innings just twice. Thursday was the fourth time in eight starts that he's gone at least seven. While his strikeout rate is down -- 6.5 Ks per nine -- he has been even more effective. His ground ball rate is up from 33.8 percent to 43.1 percent, he has allowed just one home run in 54 innings and his walks are down. There may be a little luck going on here --- the home run rate is absurdly low for a fly-ball pitcher and his .214 BABIP will surely rise -- but at this point you have to call him one of the best pitchers in the majors.

I asked Braves fans if they've been surprised by Beachy's sophomore campaign. A few responses:
  • "That dominant game from Beachy tonight is just a continuation of the good work he's been doing this year. Kid's got the goods." -- @jackson_todd
  • "Beachy has earned everything through hard work and dedication. I was surprised when he came up but not this year." -- @PaulGrey27
  • "Not surprised that he's been the Braves best pitcher. Very surprised that he's been THIS good." -- @JUnderwood9
  • "biggest surprise is continued ability to get swinging strikes on the fastball up, even when sitting 91-93. Huge asset." --@puckhoo
  • "so no, not too surprised. if he can stay efficient and get his K rate back up a little bit he will become a legit ace" --@telfo1
  • "Beachy reminds me so much of John Smoltz. His mechanics are simple which enables him to repeat pitches without stress." --@M823SL

Somewhere Gene Kerns was probably watching a baseball game tonight. I hope he got a chance to check out a few innings of Brandon Beachy. And if he wants to somehow involve a plow in future retellings of how he discovered Beachy, I think that sounds perfectly fine.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
OriolesEd Zurga/Getty ImagesWhen you're the Baltimore Orioles and in first place, you can celebrate any way you want.
Spring stats mean nothing! But they're fun to look at. A few highlights ... and lowlights (stats from major league games only):
  • Some people haven't bought in on Paul Goldschmidt as they worry about the strikeouts, but one reason I do like him is he'll draw some walks to go with the power: He's hitting .265 with three homers, but with 12 walks (and 13 strikeouts).
  • Josh Collmenter hasn't pitched well for Arizona: Five walks and just four strikeouts in 12 innings. He'll start in the rotation but you wonder how soon before we see Trevor Bauer.
  • Braves prospect Julio Teheran has somehow allowed nine home runs in 13 innings.
  • Jeff Samardzija earned a spot in the Cubs' rotation by showing good stuff but just as impressively has walked just one batter in 20 innings. This from a guy who averaged 5.1 walks per nine innings in relief in 2011.
  • Not good news for the Cubs: First baseman Bryan LaHair has 16 strikeouts and one walk. Is the 29-year-old Triple-A vet pressing now that he's been given a chance to start after hitting .331 at Iowa? His SO/BB ratio at Triple-A was 111/60.
  • Joey Votto is hitting .214 without a home run. I like how people will make a big deal when somebody does well ... but not a big deal when a star player doesn't do well. Again, spring stats ... for entertainment purposes only!
  • Dexter Fowler has had a miserable spring for the Rockies, hitting .118 in 51 at-bats with 16 strikeouts.
  • Clemens has pitched five scoreless innings for the Astros. Paul Clemens, that is.
  • Matt Kemp says he wants to go 50-50. He's not going to do it swinging like this: 21 strikeouts and one walk. Ouch.
  • Carlos Zambrano has 14 walks in 17.2 innings. But 18 strikeouts. So ... I think it's safe to say nobody knows what to expect from Big Z.
  • Zack Greinke has perhaps been the most impressive pitcher this spring with a 28/2 strikeout/walk ratio and no home runs allowed. That's pretty tough to do in Arizona, where the ball flies.
  • Sticking with the Brewers, Jonathan Lucroy is hitting .513 (20-for-39). This has nothing to do with that .513 average, but I like Lucroy as a breakout candidate.
  • Jason Bay hasn't homered or driven in a run for the Mets and has petitioned to move in the spring training fences.
  • Roy Halladay has allowed six home runs in 20 innings. He gave up 10 in 233.2 innings last season.
  • Is this the year Pedro Alvarez breaks out? Umm ... well, with 20 K's and one walk I guess we can be positive and make a Matt Kemp comparison.
  • One of my sleeper relievers of the year is Brad Brach of the Padres; he's looked good with a 14/2 K/BB ratio.
  • What will the Giants do with Brandon Belt? He's hitting .407 with seven doubles and three homers in 59 at-bats.
  • Adam Wainwright has a 1.45 ERA for the Cardinals but just nine strikeouts (and six walks) in 18.2 innings.
  • Davey Johnson says he wants to bat Ian Desmond leadoff. He has 18 strikeouts and two walks while hitting .299.
Devin Mesoraco Norm Hall/Getty ImagesThe Reds' Devin Mesoraco hopes to become the third catcher in five years to win NL rookie honors.


More staff predictions from the SweetSpot network bloggers: Nine different players received first-place votes for NL rookie of the year, suggesting a wide-open race. Cincinnati Reds catcher Devin Mesoraco tops the balloting, just edging out former teammate Yonder Alonso, now with the Padres. Bryce Harper and Trevor Bauer, two players starting the year in the minors, both fared well in the voting.

Voting on a 5-3-1 basis.

Rough spring, but Braves still contenders

March, 22, 2012
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Giants/BravesScott Cunningham/Getty ImagesDan Uggla and Brian McCann will be counted on to provide pop for the Braves in 2012.
With the way 2011 ended for the Atlanta Braves, many hoped a good start in spring training would put any thoughts about last season behind them. At the start of camp, however, Tommy Hanson crashed his car and received a concussion. That was certainly not a good omen, to say the least.

Then Tyler Pastornicky, the expected starting shortstop, started 3-for-33, sparking questions about whether he or last season’s Lynchburg Hillcat (Atlanta's high-A affiliate) shortstop Andrelton Simmons should start at shortstop. A week ago, Chipper Jones stated in jest that he was unsure if he could even finish the season, and then Thursday announced that he'll retire at the end of the season. Additionally, the team is 6-13 in the Grapefruit League, ahead of only the Mets. Spring training records do not mean much, if anything, but the Braves have most certainly not played quality baseball.

On Tuesday, the worst news of the spring hit the Braves as Arodys Vizcaino, the 14th-ranked prospect in baseball according to Keith Law, will miss the entire season with Tommy John surgery. Vizcaino was projected to pitch in the Braves’ bullpen and was expected to help ease the workload of the team’s back-end relievers.

Not much has gone right, but there are still reasons to be optimistic. With Mike Minor and Brandon Beachy ready to break out and Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado not far behind them, the Braves still have a strong core of young starting pitchers who are major league ready. With Tim Hudson already being ruled out until the start of May and Hanson and Jair Jurrjens attempting to rebound from last year’s season-ending injuries, the depth in the rotation is the team’s biggest strength and should come in handy over the course of the season.

Although Vizcaino will miss the year, swingman Kris Medlen should bolster what was already one of the game’s top bullpens. His ability to eat innings, along with fellow bullpen mate Cristhian Martinez, should lessen the workload on Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters and Eric O’Flaherty. The bullpen should again be stellar.

While the pitching should remain sturdy, the big questions in Braves camp revolve around the bats. Jason Heyward and Martin Prado had sub-standard years and will look to rebound, while Brian McCann and Dan Uggla try to stay consistent throughout the season. Heyward has altered both his swing and stance, and he has really started to swing the bat well over the past two weeks. Prado and Uggla have both looked tremendous all spring.

The basic assumption the front office has made, judging by their lack of acquisitions, is that they doubt things go as bad for the offense in 2012 as they did last year. Having Michael Bourn in center field for the entire season should stabilize the top of the lineup and result in improved production compared to what the Braves received from Nate McLouth, Jordan Schafer and Bourn during his few months with the team.

With all that went bad toward the end of last year, this team still won 89 games and would have made the playoffs if this season’s playoff format had been in place. They have a ton of pitching depth and have one of the best bullpens in the league. While they do not have a tremendous offense and will likely struggle with their infield defense, they do have the tools to score runs and prevent runs at a better than average rate. As bad as this spring has been, the Braves are still one of the better teams in the National League and should certainly be in competition for a playoff spot, which is all you can really ask for in a crowded NL East.

Ben Duronio writes regularly about the Braves at Capitol Avenue Club. You can follow him on Twitter @Ben_Duronio.

2012 predictions you couldn't predict?

February, 18, 2012
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Last year, You Can't Predict Baseball came up with bold predictions for the year. We had a lot of fun coming up with them, and then laughing at how hilariously wrong they were at the end of the year. This year, we're bringing these predictions to SweetSpot, along with explanations for some of them. Keep in mind, these predictions are supposed to be bold, but not insane -- even we know the Orioles aren't going to the playoffs in 2012.

Los Angeles Angels: Kendrys Morales stays healthy all year.

Houston Astros: Bud Norris is top five in K/9 in the NL. We figured something good had to happen to the Astros, right? Norris actually has a pretty nice career K/9.

Oakland Athletics: Yoenis Cespedes is their starting center fielder by Memorial Day.

Toronto Blue Jays: Brandon Morrow makes the jump to elite starting pitcher. He's struck out more than 10 batters per 9 innings two years running, though his ERAs have remained ugly. We think this is the year his results finally match the stuff, especially considering his declining walk rate.

Atlanta Braves: Julio Teheran has more wins than Tim Hudson.

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Rickie Weeks
AP Photo/David J. PhillipWith Prince Fielder gone to Detroit and Ryan Braun facing possible disciplinary action, Rickie Weeks could lead the Milwaukee Brewers in home runs in 2012.
Milwaukee Brewers: Rickie Weeks leads the team in home runs. He was fourth on the team last year, with 20. In front of him were Corey Hart with 26, Ryan Braun with 33, and Prince Fielder with 38. Fielder is gone, and for this prediction we'll assume Braun will miss a third of the year due to a suspension. It's not too bold to think Weeks could pass Hart in 2012.

St. Louis Cardinals: Carlos Beltran outproduces Albert Pujols from last year. Albert Pujols was great last year, but not quite best-player-of-his-generation Albert Pujols. If healthy, it's not absurd to think of Beltran outproducing Pujols' 5.1 WAR in 2011.

Chicago Cubs: Matt Garza isn't their best pitcher. It'll be Ryan Dempster, who had great peripherals but bad results last year.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Aaron Hill will be good again. He was great with them in limited time, and Arizona's park is quite hitter-friendly.

Los Angeles Dodgers: James Loney will be a top-three first baseman in the National League. Many thanks to Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness for somewhat alerting us to this one. We just decided to take it semi-absurdly far.

San Francisco Giants: Madison Bumgarner is their best pitcher. In terms of ERA, he already wasn't very far behind Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, and his K/BB ratio eclipsed theirs by quite a bit.

Cleveland Indians: They'll have the best pitching in the American League Central. We're banking on Ubaldo Jimenez, making a major comeback to something closer to what he was in 2010, and the rest of the staff displaying the good that they did in 2011. We're also counting on the Tigers' starters not being very impressive behind Justin Verlander, which is bold but not quite insane, and the pitching of the White Sox, Twins and Royals not being able to keep up with Cleveland's.

Seattle Mariners: Jesus Montero catches 100-plus games. The Mariners probably aren't going to compete, so why not try and play him where he'll accrue the most value?

Miami Marlins: Despite all their new acquisitions and the hype, they still finish fourth in the NL East. When you think about it, this one isn't so crazy. If Josh Johnson isn't healthy and maybe even if he is their pitching still trails that of Philadelphia, Washington, and Atlanta; even with Heath Bell, we don't think their bullpen is as good, either. Their offense might be better than some of those teams', but the Marlins were quite a bit below league average offensively last year and we're not sure how much Jose Reyes is going to make up for that.

New York Mets: Mike Pelfrey is the worst starter in the NL. Pelfrey's been pretty terrible two of the past three years, and now they're moving the fences in at Citi Field. He was far better in his huge home stadium, but we're guessing with the moved-in walls he'll be significantly worse at Citi. Here at YCPB, we actually don't think the Mets are going to be quite as dire as many are saying, even if they do come in last place in the NL East - but Pelfrey won't be a bright spot.

Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg has a 17-strikeout game.

Baltimore Orioles: Matt Wieters is the best catcher in the AL. A lot of people are so obsessed with Wieters not matching the hype that they didn't notice he became a plus offensive performer last year, to go along with very good defense. His taking the next step isn't that bold as predictions go, especially if Joe Mauer has to move off catcher.

San Diego Padres: Luke Gregerson is a top-three closer in the NL.

Philadelphia Phillies: Cole Hamels is their best starter. And this isn't meant to be a slight to Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee, but considering their ages and the fact that Hamels is pretty darn good himself, plus a possible boost from a contract year...

Pittsburgh Pirates: Charlie Morton is their All-Star.

Texas Rangers: Yu Darvish isn't their best starter -- but he's still good. And we think he'll be pretty good, we just think Derek Holland will become more consistently good, or Matt Harrison will put up numbers like his 2011.

Tampa Bay Rays: James Shields will have no complete games. Predicting someone to have no complete games might not seem bold, but it is when it's a guy who was known as "Complete Game James" last season. Shields did have 11 complete games in 2011, an almost unheard-of number these days, but he had no complete games in 2009 or 2010.

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James Shields
Kim Klement/US PresswireAfter none in either 2009 or 10, James Shields pitched 11 complete games for Tampa Bay in 2011.
Boston Red Sox: No one hits 30 home runs. This might seem crazy when you consider their great offensive numbers last year, but only one player on their team hit 30 home runs and it was Jacoby Ellsbury with 32.

Cincinnati Reds: Brandon Phillips is the best second baseman in the NL.

Colorado Rockies: Jamie Moyer will have the best HR/9 on the staff.

Kansas City Royals: They reach .500. While their pitching won't be great, their offense will take a big step forward this year. Combined with the rest of their division being the Tigers and some dumpster fires, it's not that difficult to see it happening.

Detroit Tigers: They score fewer runs than they did in 2011. Yes, that’s even with Fielder. It's not improbable that Jhonny Peralta, Alex Avila and Delmon Young regress quite a bit from their numbers with Detroit last year, and that Prince Fielder's production "only" makes up for the offensive loss of Victor Martinez in 2012. They'll still have a very good offense, though.

Minnesota Twins: Joe Mauer hits 15 home runs.

Chicago White Sox: Robin Ventura gets ejected more times than Ozzie Guillen. Look at the state of the White Sox. We'd get ejected too.

New York Yankees: Hiroki Kuroda leads the team in ERA.

You Can't Predict Baseball is an affiliate of the SweetSpot network.

If you collected baseball cards in the 1980s, you'll remember the "rookie craze." You'd open a pack, desperately seeking that Dwight Gooden rookie card or Mark McGwire rookie card or Sam Horn rookie card. Those cards were going to pay for your college tuition.

I don't know if the rookie card craze still exists -- I haven't collected baseball cards in more than 20 years -- but I had a rookie craze on Wednesday night. Danny Duffy was making his major league debut for the Kansas City Royals. Zach Britton was going for the Baltimore Orioles. Jeremy Hellickson started for the Tampa Bay Rays. Julio Teheran was making his second start for the Atlanta Braves.

Here are some notes as I flipped through the action.

Danny Duffy: Listed at 6-foot-3, 200 pounds, although he doesn't look that big to me, maybe built more along the lines of somebody like Erik Bedard. ... Baby-faced, close-shaven blonde hair, looks like he should nervously be pinning a corsage on his date before the prom instead of looking calm and confident on a major league mound. ... Duffy actually retired last spring, but returned in June. He's pitched only 14 games above Class A, so the Royals are maybe rushing him a bit. ... Early on, he's relying on his fastball and occasional curveball. Works at a nice pace, moving his fastball in and out, trying to keep the ball down in the zone. Fastball speed is all over the place, according to the TV radar gun, moving around from 90 to 95 mph. ... After two scoreless innings, gets in a bases-loaded jam in the third inning with one out. Jams Adrian Beltre with an 0-1 inside fastball for a 6-4 force out and then throws two nice curveballs to get Mitch Moreland to bounce out to first. Nice job, rook. ... In the end, Duffy lasts just four innings, throwing 94 pitches, 54 for strikes. The line score looks worse than what I saw: 4 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 6 BB, 4 SO. ... On this night, he was able to get the fastball inside to right-handed hitters, but he fatigued a bit, started getting the ball up and didn't challenge the hitters if he fell behind in the count. In other words, he looked like a rookie.

Zach Britton: I love watching this kid pitch. He enters his start against the Yankees with a 5-2 record and 2.42 ERA through his first eight starts. He throws a hard sinker, and while he has just 29 strikeouts in 52 innings, opponents are hitting just .203 with a .578 OPS off him. ... He looks good early on, keeping the ball down, getting ground ball outs. The Yankees' first four hits are all ground singles through the infield. Those are the types of hits Britton gives up, as he's allowed only 11 extra-base hits over those eight starts. ... Defense lets him down in the fourth inning when second baseman Robert Andino's error leads to an unearned run. ... By the way, the last Orioles pitcher to throw 200 innings with an ERA under 3.25: Mike Mussina in 1997. And other than Mussina? Storm Davis and Mike Boddicker -- in 1984. This franchise is starving for an ace. ... Finally gives up a couple of hard-hit balls in the sixth when Alex Rodriguez singles in the gap and Robinson Cano drills a single off the right-field scoreboard. But Adam Jones gunned down A-Rod trying to stretch his hit into a double and Britton gets Nick Swisher looking to end the inning. ... Britton ends up going seven innings and gets off the hook for the "loss" when the Orioles tie it up at 1 with a run off Mariano Rivera in the ninth. ... Did I mention the Orioles need an ace? They may have one.

Jeremy Hellickson: A lot of people like to compare him to Greg Maddux, which is really code for "Right-handed pitcher, good control, knows how to pitch, not overpowering." Of course, everybody acknowledges there's only one Greg Maddux, and truth is Hellickson is nothing like Maddux, other than the lack of a big fastball. Maddux essentially relied on a moving fastball that he developed pinpoint control with. Hellickson throws the kitchen sink up at you: fastballs, changeups, curveballs, varying the speed and location with every pitch. ... He's not afraid to pitch up in the zone. In the first, he gets Yunel Escobar swinging on a 79-mph changeup that's up at the letters and gets Corey Patterson to swing through a 90-mph fastball that looks down the middle. Jose Bautista smacks a fastball at the knees into left for a single. A good pitch, in that at least Bautista didn't homer. ... Later on in the sixth, Patterson hits an outside fastball to right for a double. It wasn't a bad pitch, but Patterson was able to hook it into the corner. ... Bautista drills a liner to left on a low curve that Sam Fuld makes a nice running catch on, but Hellickson is chased when Aaron Hill doubles off the wall in left-center and Eric Thames lines his first major league hit to center. ... Hellickson had a 33/8 SO/BB ratio during his late-season call-up last year, but right now it's at 36/21 after walking three guys on this night. He lasts long enough to get credit for the win, improving his record to 5-2. ... The overall season numbers are decent, but he's also a beneficiary of Tampa's excellent defense. Without that overpowering fastball, he'll need to drop the walk rate.

Julio Teheran: Just 20 years old, his start on May 7 against the Phillies was supposed to be a one-start cameo due to a rainout backlog, but he's back already for another try. I watched that Phillies game and he didn't look ready for the majors, with little command of his fastball. ... Watching the Arizona feed as the game begins and the announcers say he threw 23 changeups in his first start. ... He gets two quick outs, goes to a 3-2 count to Justin Upton and throws another changeup. As Mark Grace says on the broadcast, "Justin was not fooled." Upton crushes it about 15 rows over the fence in left-center. ... In the fourth, with two outs and two runners on, Ryan Roberts is up. On a 2-2 count, Teheran goes to the fastball this time, but Roberts cuts down on his swing (these are not your 2010 Diamondbacks) and lines an RBI single to right. ... Teheran is done after four innings and 83 pitches and leaves trailing 2-0. Like his first start, he shows that he lacks a knockout pitch, as he again strikes out just one batter. Grace likes what he sees, however: "I was very impressed with the young man. Showed good moxie out there. Wasn't afraid. Went right after the hitters."

* * * *

I was going to rank this year's rookie pitchers, but we'll do that another time. I may be biased as a Mariners fan, but it's clear that Michael Pineda is by the far most electrifying of these rookie starters. He's like a Don Drysdale or Justin Verlander: Tall, overpowering and intimidating. When Pineda gave up his first major league homer a couple starts ago to Mitch Moreland, he had a look of disbelief on his face. He's a very confident young pitcher. Of course, I suppose if I was 6-foot-7, 250 pounds, with the ability to throw 97 mph with control, I'd be pretty confident as well.

Time will tell how good this group will turn out to be, but I did a quick look back at some rookie pitching crops of the past 30 years. This isn't comprehensive and is sorted by rookie season (not necessarily debut season, so a September call-up season wouldn't count). Anyway, here are some of the best years I found (the 2006 group looks pretty special and check out that 1984 class):

2006: Justin Verlander, Josh Johnson, Cole Hamels, Jon Lester, Jered Weaver, James Shields Matt Cain, Chad Billingsley, Adam Wainwright.

2000: Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, Mark Buehrle, Johan Santana, Brad Penny, Bronson Arroyo, A.J. Burnett.

1987: Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, David Cone, Chuck Finley.

1984: Roger Clemens, Dwight Gooden, Mark Langston, Bret Saberhagen, Jose Rijo, Orel Hershiser, John Franco, Jimmy Key, Mark Gubicza, Sid Fernandez.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Cubs FansAP Photo/J Pat CarterInsert your own joke about what these poor kids are about to embark upon in a lifetime as Cubs fans.
Here are five reasons why you really should be listening to Wednesday's Baseball Today podcast , with myself and Keith Law. And really, why aren't you listening every day? You are? OK, good!

1. ESPNNewYork.com writer and author Ian O'Connor stops by to discuss his timely book "The Captain: The Journey of Derek Jeter." We pepper him with questions and he's got answers.

2. Blame it on the rain! Will this awful weather ever stop? But seriously, rainouts and doubleheaders will be affecting most every team this season, and we discuss potential repercussions for unprepared squads.

3. Poor Francisco Liriano. Even when he pitches well, he can't get credit for it. Oh that's right, he pitched well against the Seattle Mariners. How about poor Felix Hernandez?

4. We remember the oddity that was the 2002 Florida Marlins rotation, with pitchers better than you think and with more staying power.

5. The Kansas City Royals will unveil 22-year-old left-hander Danny Duffy against the Texas Rangers Wednesday, and Keith discusses mixed feelings on the pitcher.

Plus: Excellent e-mails, how to find KLaw's cupcake recipe (yep, really), why Ryan Braun should be talking to umpires, why there are 33 picks in the first round despite there only being 30 teams and a look at the day's schedule. Phew. All of this and more on Wednesday's Baseball Today!
News broke about the death of Hall of Famer Harmon Killebrew just before we taped Tuesday's Baseball Today podcast . In addition to a well-done tribute by Tim Kurkjian, here are other reasons you should listen to the show, co-hosted by myself and Keith Law, or KLaw to his pals:

1. Kansas City Royals pitcher Vin Mazzaro had a really bad Monday, for more than the 14 reasons (the runs he allowed) than you might think. We each feel bad for the kid, but why?

2. The David Wright back injury doesn't only mean the New York Mets will be missing their best player for awhile, but also impacts the moves they might make down the road.

3. I watched Albert Pujols play third base Monday night, and while I know Tony La Russa's flawed reasoning behind it, I still don't really buy it. Luckily, neither does KLaw. We explain.

4. Who really is the top pitching prospect for the Atlanta Braves, and is this really reflected in who they promoted for Wednesday's start?

5. Is Miguel Tejada the reason why Tim Lincecum stunk up the Coors Field joint Monday night? We delve into the Miggy matter.

Plus: Excellent emails, more discussion about rivalries, which Cleveland Indian might be "pulling a Posada" and keeping a close eye on Francisco Liriano and Ubaldo Jimenez. All this and more on Tuesday's Baseball Today!

We talked baseball caps. We talked Braves and Derek Jeter and lots of other things. Check it out here.
My father-in-law posed this challenge to me Sunday night: “If you can make sense of this baseball season, you’re a smart man.”

I don’t think I can do that. But I can list 10 reasons I’m having a blast following this crazy, unpredictable season.

1. Parity. Baseball’s new secret weapon that will increase fan excitement throughout the summer. Right now, only the Indians, Phillies and Marlins are playing above .600 baseball, and only the Twins, White Sox and Astros are below .400. Last season, no team played .600 and only the Mariners and Pirates were below .400. The Indians and Marlins began the season ranked 26th and 24th in payroll. The Rays, currently tied with the Yankees, ranked 29th. The 30th-ranked Royals are above .500. Meanwhile, top-10 payrolls teams the Red Sox, the White Sox, Cubs, Mets and Tigers are all below .500. It all means that at about the one-fifth mark, every team is within 5½ games of the division lead or the wild card, except the Astros, Twins and White Sox.

2. The Rays start 1-8 but are now tied for first. Their first baseman is hitting .129, their shortstop .195, their cleanup hitter retired, their best player has missed most of the season, they have an entirely new bullpen from 2010 … and yet here they are, playing great defense (first in Defensive Efficiency and third in UZR entering Sunday), getting big hits from Ben Zobrist and the bullpen has an ERA under 3.00. Word of caution: Tampa has played the fewest games against above .500 teams of any team in the majors (five).

3. Roy Halladay. The Phillies’ rotation has lived up to its billing (25 quality starts, one more than Cleveland), but Halladay has been even better this season, if you can believe it. Every start of his has become must-watch TV, much like Pedro Martinez or Randy Johnson or Greg Maddux in their primes. He’s upped his strikeout rate from 7.9 per nine to 9.6 and he’s allowed just one home run, after allowing 24 last season.

4. Michael Pineda. The new young gun. Granted, I’m a Mariners fan, but this kid is dynamite, a big, intimidating 6-foot-7 flamethrower who weighs 250 pounds and averages 88.9 mph … on his changeup. His fastball has averaged 96 -- the best among major league starters. He pitches Tuesday against the White Sox. Check him out.

5. The Cardinals’ Fearsome Foursome. Stealing a nickname from the NFL’s past, this is the label I’ve given the Cards’ middle of the order: Colby Rasmus, Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman. The Cardinals have survived the loss of Adam Wainwright and a major league-leading nine bullpen losses to lead the NL Central thanks to these four guys (and Pujols hasn’t even heated up). The rejuvenated Berkman has been the one-fifth MVP (sorry, Lance, no trophy for that) with his .374/.452/.738 line. If you’re getting tired of all the 3-2 games, turn on the Cards to watch some raking.

6. Red Sox angst. Don’t take this that I’m rooting against the Red Sox -- that’s not the case -- but it’s been kind of fun watching Red Sox Nation squirm, whine and complain. I hope the rest of the AL enjoyed it, because I have a feeling the Sox are starting to heat up.

7. Indians joy. If my counting is correct, 45 individuals made predictions for ESPN.com in our season preview. Not one picked the Indians to win the AL Central.

8. All the pitching gems. From Josh Johnson to Dan Haren to Cliff Lee to Justin Verlander to Jaime Garcia to Felix Hernandez to Jered Weaver to Francisco Liriano, knowing any night can give us a no-hitter makes for riveting television and/or Internet watching. There’s never a dull day in baseball, that’s for sure. For what it’s worth, the rate of “great starts” is similar to last year. Using the Bill James Game Score method, there have been 36 starts of 80 or better this year, compared to 150 last season. The top five in average Game Score: Johnson, James Shields, Weaver, Halladay and … Kyle Lohse. (OK, I wouldn’t have guessed him either).

9. Joey Votto. Hey, I’ve admitted to my man crush on Votto. When Joey hits, I’m happy.

10. And all this ... Jose Reyes legging out a triple, Ichiro hitting infield singles, Jose Bautista mashing home runs, Andre Ethier’s hit streak, Trevor Cahill’s changeup, Jeff Francoeur defying the experts, Brandon Phillips’ and Sam Fuld’s Web Gems, Tim Lincecum’s movement, Derek Jeter’s two-homer game right as everyone pronounced him dead …

SERIES OF THE WEEK

Tampa Bay at Cleveland

Tuesday: Andy Sonnanstine (0-0, 2.19) vs. Josh Tomlin (4-1, 2.43)
Wednesday: David Price (4-3, 3.26) vs. Jeanmar Gomez (0-1, 4.91)
Thursday: James Shields (3-1, 2.01) vs. Justin Masterson (5-0, 2.11)

Lots of great series this week: A’s-Rangers, Cardinals-Cubs, Red Sox-Yankees over the weekend, Phillies on the road at Florida and Atlanta … but this one is intriguing as the Indians head back home trying to extend their 13-game home winning streak. Sonnanstine makes his first start of the season for Tampa, which was won four in a row and climbed back into a first-place tie with the Yankees.

PITCHING MATCHUP OF THE WEEK

Tuesday: Roy Halladay (5-1, 2.19) vs. Josh Johnson (3-1, 1.68), Phillies at Marlins

Following a four-start stretch in which he allowed one run and 11 hits over 28 1/3 innings, Johnson finally proved hittable in his last outing against St. Louis, as the Cardinals touched him for eight hits and five runs in 7 1/3 innings … raising his opponents’ batting average allowed all the way up to .160. He’s allowed a .444 OPS. Not that he can keep up this kind of pitching: Only four starters since 1920 have allowed an OPS under .500: Bob Gibson in 1968(.469), Pedro Martinez in 2000 (.473), Greg Maddux in 1995 (.482) and Luis Tiant in 1968 (.495).

As for Halladay, he may need to match his start of last May 29, when he beat Johnson and the Marlins 1-0 with a perfect game. The two faced off again on June 10 and Johnson won 2-0 with eight innings of three-hit baseball. In that game, Halladay went eight innings and gave up only one run.

THREE SWINGS

1. Joey Votto’s 33-game on-base string -- he had reached base in every Reds game this season -- ended Sunday with an 0-for-4 effort. Votto, who had a 41-game on-base streak last season -- was called out on one checked swing on Sunday. “Not even close from my perspective,” he told Cincinnati.com. Votto’s average has dropped to .333 after going 7 for his last 33. Andre Ethier’s hit streak got all the attention, but on-base streaks are impressive in their own right; it’s hard to get hits if pitchers aren’t giving you much to hit. Votto leads the NL with 29 walks, seven more than teammate Jonny Gomes and the Mets’ David Wright.

2. The Giants completed a big sweep of the Rockies with a 3-0 victory Sunday, as Ryan Vogelsong allowed just one hit over 6 1/3 innings. Vogelsong has been one of the nice stories of 2011, as he made it back to the majors for the first time since 2006. He went more than 2,000 days between wins as a starting pitcher. As for the Rockies, their pitchers delivered six straight quality starts this week but they won just once, as the offense continues to struggle. The Rockies are hitting .233 overall -- .225 on the road. Carlos Gonzalez still hasn’t gotten untracked and Troy Tulowitzki is hitting .152 since April 18.

3. Two debuts this weekend from rookies we’ll be hearing a lot about for a long time: Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer and Braves starter Julio Teheran. Hosmer went 0-for-2 in his debut, but drew two walks, and turned a beautiful 3-6-3 double play, showing why scouts consider him a future Gold Glover. He went 2-for-4 on Sunday with a double and already has three walks -- or one more than A’s center fielder Coco Crisp and Astros third baseman Chris Johnson have drawn in more than 100 at-bats. I watched Teheran’s start against the Phillies on Saturday and he showed the nice, easy motion and good stuff that got him to the majors at 20 years of age. He didn’t have great command, however, and Ryan Howard tattooed one low fastball for a home run. Teheran is headed back to Triple-A after the spot start, but I suspect he’ll be back sometime this season, maybe even as a reliever down the stretch if the Braves don’t need him in the rotation. A good sign: A scene from the TV broadcast showed him listening intently in the dugout as Jair Jurrjens discussed a few things with him -- probably something about not pitching Ryan Howard low and in.

RANT OF THE WEEK

The Orioles looked like they could challenge for their first .500 season since 1997 after a 6-1 start, but they followed that up with eight straight losses, climbed back to .500, but have now lost six of seven after getting swept at home by Tampa Bay. They just haven’t been getting on base enough to score many runs. Robert Andino is the only guy hitting above .267, but he only has one RBI (on a home run) in 65 at-bats. Vladimir Guerrero, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Brian Roberts and Mark Reynolds all have on-base percentages below .300.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Mike StantonSteve Mitchell/US PresswireMike Stanton went head over heels for Ian Desmond … or for a ball hit by Ian Desmond.
The Atlanta Braves announced today right-handed pitcher Julio Teheran will be called up to start against the Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday, in place of Jair Jurrjens. One of the top pitching prospects in the minors, the 20-year-old Teheran has a free and easy delivery. His fastball is dominant in the 93-96 mph range with an above-average changeup and a developing curveball. He has slightly long arm action. When the breaking ball becomes more consistent and his command improves, Teheran will be come a top-of-the-rotation starter.

Teheran has been especially impressive at Triple-A Gwinnett, starting 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA in five starts with 25 strikeouts and eight walks in 30 innings. I exchanged texts with Braves VP and GM Frank Wren today and this is what he said: "He has developed very quickly. He hasn’t been intimidated at any level. Throwing very well and we thought he would be best suited for a spot start at this time."

A spot start against the division-rival Phillies in Philadelphia while trailing the Phillies by 4.5 games. That shows you the confidence Wren and the Braves have in this young phenom. Teheran’s fastball will be flaming in Philly ... best wishes in his MLB debut!

The guys over at the Capitol Avenue Club are excited for the debut as well.

Follow Jim on Twitter: @JimBowdenESPNxm.
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