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You had to figure the D-backs were due to break out at some point. Playing in one of the baseball’s best ballparks to hit in, but posting a .133 Isolated power rate, below even the .140 league average? That wasn’t going to last. And Ted Lilly, 5-0 and looking invincible going into Wednesday night’s start in the ballpark formerly known as Bob? As good as Lilly has been this season, he’s a guy who’s averaged almost 30 homers allowed per 200 innings pitched on his career, so that wasn’t going to last either.

Something had to give -- and did. Lilly gave up an extra-base hit in every frame while allowing 14 baserunners and eight runs before he was yanked in the fourth, and the Snakes’ parade around the bases got the benefit of an additional Justin Upton three-run shot in the fifth off Jamey Wright to seal the deal.

A lot of what went right for Arizona reflects what’s supposed to be going right for it, and what worked for it last year. Upton is supposed to air-mail Earl Weaver specials into the cheap seats, because Arizona is supposed to slug well in its home park -- that’s what it was built to do, and last year’s 38-point relative advantage in slugging at home as opposed to on the road was fairly normal. Even though we’re past the quarter mark, these are things that are so, but aren’t likely to remain so.

Upton isn’t the only guy failing to deliver power relative to expectations. After Paul Goldschmidt slugged .474 as a rookie, you would expect that he isn’t going to slug under .400 all year. Then again, he was also only projected to slug .428 before the season by ESPN Insider’s Dan Szymborski (via ZiPS). On the other hand, Miguel Montero isn’t going to have an ISO below .100 ... but if he doesn’t it will be a bitter climb-down for the defending division champs.

But failing to slug isn’t the only thing that’s different about the D-backs this year. After ripping his third-inning double, Goldschmidt stole third base for the first time ever in his young career -- and that’s very much Kirk Gibson’s brand of baseball, setting loose his basepath commandos. It’s also something we’ve seen less of this season as the D-backs have struggled to get their offense on track. Gibby likes pushing defenses on the bases, perhaps not unlike the wide receiver he once was, but from 2011 to 2012 the Snakes have sunk from third to 13th in the league in extra bases taken on base hits. So not only have the Snakes lost their thunder, they’re no longer lightning on the bases. Instead, teams like the Marlins, Braves and Dodgers are the ones advancing aggressively on the bases.

It will be interesting to see how things shake down in the lineup in the weeks to come. Staying the course and expecting that their guys will get back on track is the easy thing, the patient thing, the choice that relies on courage of the actuarial kind. But these Snakes aren’t made of stone, and changes are being made on the margins. You can see why the switch-hitting Josh Bell was brought up: Not just to play some third base and perhaps push Ryan Roberts into a utility role after Tatt Man’s slow start, but to give the lineup another power source from the left side if the plate. (Stephen Drew’s latest rehab setback doesn’t help matters any.) Roberts was one of the people Gibson turned to and won with last season; so was Goldschmidt.

The D-backs can’t sit entirely still, not after a title, and not after they watch the promising youth of key stars from that 2007 NLCS team fail again to top that feat. But if they don’t start hammering foes with some regularity, it won’t be people like Upton or Montero or Chris Young who get moved aside. Instead, it will be the guys with options -- like Goldschmidt -- or the guys who are fundamentally replaceable -- as Roberts has always been -- who will become targets of convenience for a club that may need to shake things up sooner rather than later.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

Who is Justin Upton?

Is he a good player? An All-Star right fielder? A guy who will be mentioned high on MVP ballots during his good seasons? Or is he going to be that superduperstar?

Upton teased us when he reached the majors at age 19 in 2007. In 2008, spending most of the season at age 20, he tantalized us with his talent, posting an .817 OPS and hitting 15 home runs. In 2009, he hit .300 with 26 home runs and looked like a guy who could become the best player in baseball ... or close to it.

He had a terrific season in 2011, hitting .289 with 31 home runs, leading the Arizona Diamondbacks to the NL West title and finishing fourth in the MVP vote.

And yet ... this is unfair, I admit ... I'm left wanting more. It's the curse of potential, I suppose, the burden of being so good when so young. Hall of Famer Eddie Mathews hit 47 home runs when he was 21 and spent the rest of his career trying to match that. Even though he became one of the greatest third basemen of all time, while still active many viewed Mathews a disappointment, viewing him through that age-21 lens.

I find myself doing the same thing with Upton. His batting line in 2009 was .300/.366/.532; in 2011, .289/.369/.529. Nothing wrong with that, of course, but we generally expect improvement from age 21 to age 23. Maybe a few more walks, a little more power. Upton, while terrific, was essentially the same player at the plate.

Entering 2012, the question still hovered out there: Could he get better? Could he put up a Matt Kemp-Ryan Braun type of season?

Then he suffered a nagging thumb injury and didn't homer or drive in a run in his first 13 games. Upton hit his third homer on May 2, but then went another 13 games without a home run while driving in just two runs, before finally snapping out of that slump with a game-winning homer off Colorado's Rafael Betancourt last week.

One problem plaguing Upton has been called third strikes -- he's taken 20 of them, which leads the majors. He struck out looking 35 times last season. Maybe the thumb is still bothering him, and he's tried to compensate by drawing more walks -- his walk rate is up 3 percent and he's swinging at fewer pitchers outside the strike zone. Maybe that approach means the home runs will start coming in bunches.

Or maybe he's just in a funk. His teammates certainly are.

Arizona is 19-24 after losing 6-1 to the Dodgers on Monday night, putting the D-backs 10.5 games behind the Dodgers already. The D-backs are ninth in the NL in runs scored, 12th in home runs, ninth in OPS. Other than Chris Young, who just returned from a DL stint, most of the Diamondbacks are struggling. Cleanup hitter Miguel Montero has two home runs. First baseman Paul Goldschmidt has just two bombs as well. Third baseman Ryan Roberts is hitting .227 with two home runs and a .288 OBP. Willie Bloomquist is Willie Bloomquist. Upton is hitting .235/.344/.353.

It's certainly an offense desperately in need of Upton to get hot. They need him to go on a tear like last June and July, when he hit .355/.424/.636 from May 30 through Aug. 2. He's the guy this offense feeds off of. He's what Kemp is to the Dodgers or Joey Votto is to the Reds.

So ... who is Justin Upton? Is he the guy who can carry an offense? Is he great player capable of an MVP season? Or is he an MVP player?

We closed another week of excellent Baseball Today podcasts with Friday’s edition , as Mark Simon and I reflected on positives in the baseball world, and looked ahead to a fun interleague weekend!

1. Kerry Wood decides to call an end to his career, and we point to his career achievements rather than focus on the negative, including his amazing strikeout legacy.

2. Atlanta Braves ace Brandon Beachy keeps on winning, and keeps on doing it in a far different way than we’ve seen from him before.

3. Interleague play is here! Time for my annual rant on why it’s not only about the teams from Chicago, New York and Los Angeles meeting, but for that 10-year-old kid in Kansas City finally getting to see Justin Upton hit.

4. Our emailers want to discuss Emmanuel Burriss, the Pittsburgh Alleghenys and really, so much more, and we want what our emailers want!

5. Our weekend preview focuses on numerous series in which teams with similar records face off, from Pirates-Tigers to the battle of the Beltway and more. Plus, what to expect from Albert Pujols, Jose Bautista, Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Hamilton!

So download and listen to Friday’s fun Baseball Today, and have a great weekend! Power Rankings on Monday!

First base: No Kemp, plenty Kershaw. It's too early in the season to call any series a "big" series, but considering the Diamondbacks entered Monday 8.5 games behind the Dodgers and Matt Kemp didn't play for the first time since Aug. 18, 2009 ... well, it's kind of an important two-game showdown for them. Monday's game was a battle of aces with Clayton Kershaw facing Ian Kennedy and featured some extracurricular fireworks. The last time Kershaw faced Arizona, last September, he was ejected for plunking Gerardo Parra, who had longingly admired a home run the previous night. On Kershaw's first at-bat, Kennedy threw behind him.

But Kershaw got the final word. He later introduced Kennedy's nose to the smell of some inside heat and pitched seven shutout innings in L.A.'s 3-1 victory. Arizona just can't produce many runs right now. Paul Goldschmidt, Ryan Roberts and Willie Bloomquist are still struggling at the plate and Justin Upton's OPS continues to hover under .700. He did get a first-inning single off Kershaw -- his first hit off Kershaw after going 0-for-18. If there's good news for the Diamondbacks, it's that they owned an identical 15-21 record last season after 36 games. They even dropped to 15-22, before turning their season around, winning 15 of their next 17 games.

Second base: Reds scare. So the St. Louis Cardinals have outscored their opponents by 63 runs, they have an MVP candidate in Carlos Beltran, six guys in Monday's lineup hitting over .300 (none of whom were Beltran, Matt Holliday or David Freese) and three starters with an ERA under 2.50. The Cincinnati Reds have outscored their opponents by six runs, have three starters with an ERA over 4.00, five guys in Monday's lineup hitting under .260 and only one hitter who has more than nine walks. And, somehow, the Reds are just 1.5 games behind the Cardinals.

Third base: Friedrich fantastic, Tulo not. Rockies rookie Christian Friedrich once again looked terrific in his second major league start, striking out 10 and allowing just a Gregor Blanco home run in seven innings. Friedrich, the one-time top prospect who struggled in Double-A the past two seasons, had pitched well in Triple-A this year and now has 17 strikeouts and just two walks over his first two starts. Friedrich's effort went for naught as the Giants scored two runs in the eighth off the Colorado bullpen, dropping the Rockies to 13-21. Troy Tulowitzki continues to struggle in May (he hasn't homered since April 27), was hit by Dexter Fowler's foul ball while standing in the dugout and then left the game after limping down the line on an infield single.

Tweet of the night. Speaking of that inside pitch to Kershaw ...

Not surprisingly both #Dbacks Montero and Kennedy said they were just trying to go inside on Kershaw bc he has a "long swing".

— Steve Gilbert (@SteveGilbertMLB) May 15, 2012

To much fanfare and with exceedingly high expectations, the Washington Nationals called up Bryce Harper over the weekend. He went 2-for-6 with a double, a walk, a strikeout and a sac fly, although the Nationals lost both games. In his first game, he hustled to first base on a comebacker to the mound in his first at-bat, doubled and flipped his helmet in the seventh inning, unleashed a great throw from left field, put the Nationals ahead with a sacrifice fly in the ninth, and made a nice catch while crashing into the wall in center field in his second game.

Nothing wrong with that start, which began with Dodgers fans giving him a loud chorus of boos. Already the villain, it seems, which is certainly unfair to a 19-year-old kid. While the Nationals were desperate for some offense -- running out past-their-prime veterans like Xavier Nady and Mark DeRosa probably wasn't a good plan to begin with -- a rash of injuries forced the front office to call up Harper sooner than they probably wanted. As former Mets general manager Jim Duquette said on MLB Network Radio, you want guys to earn their promotion. Harper has just 534 plate appearances in the minor leagues, which isn't necessarily the issue; Ken Griffey Jr. had just 552 when he debuted with the Mariners at 19. The issue is Harper hasn't hit much in his limited exposure above Class A, especially against left-handers. The fear, it can be argued, is that if he struggles in the major leagues, it will harm his development.

I don't see it. If the kid is this good, I don't see a bad stretch doing irreparable harm to his long-term future. If Harper doesn't turn into a big star, it won't be because he was called up too soon.

An obvious comparison is Alex Rodriguez. He was first called up in July of 1994, a few weeks before his 19th birthday. A-Rod played 17 games, had 59 plate appearances, hit .204 and struck out 20 times while drawing just three walks. The next season, he spent more time in the majors and hit .232/.264/.408 with an awful 42/6 strikeout/walk ratio. Despite those two periods where major league pitchers destroyed him, his confidence and talent won out. In 1996, still just 20 years old at the start of the season, Rodriguez hit .358 with 36 home runs.

Now, it's unfair to compare Harper to Rodriguez, of course. So here's another one: Jim Thome had just turned 21 when called up in 1991. He hit .255/.298/.367 with one home run in 27 games that September. He struggled again the next year, hitting .205 with two home runs in 131 plate appearances. He ended up spending most of 1993 in the minors as well. He turned out OK.

It's probably unfair to even compare Harper to Thome, only one of the best power/on-base machines in the game's history. Harper is a better athlete than Thome, but his raw power is similar. OK, how about Justin Upton? He was still 19 when he made his debut in 2007. He hit .221/.283/.364 with 11 walks and 37 strikeouts in 152 plate appearances that season. It would seem to me that Upton is a good comp, a guy who showed steady development and turned into an MVP candidate in his age-23 season.

There are hopes that Harper will be even better than that. His destiny remains unknown. I just don't believe a few bad weeks -- if that's what happens -- will affect his ultimate path.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

The Arizona Diamondbacks won 94 games a year ago despite having one of the weakest benches in the league. Their playoff roster included retread veterans Geoff Blum, Sean Burroughs and Lyle Overbay, weak-hitting infielder John McDonald, rookie outfielder Collin Cowgill and backup catcher Henry Blanco. None of those players except Overbay really offered much at bat, and heading into 2012, they certainly wouldn't be considered viable backup options in case of an injury to a starter.

That's why the signing of Jason Kubel, while widely criticized as an overpay at two years and $15 million, was understandable: He gave the D-backs another legitimate outfielder, even if it meant pushing defensive whiz Gerardo Parra to a backup role. With center fielder Chris Young landing on the disabled list after crashing into a wall on Tuesday night and Justin Upton fighting a thumb injury that has left him without an RBI, Parra and Kubel will both be in the lineup on a regular basis for at least the next two weeks.

The Diamondbacks didn't release the results of Young's MRI, although they're calling it a shoulder contusion. Upton wasn't in Wednesday's lineup, the second straight game he'll miss. The short-term solution with Upton out will see rookie A.J. Pollock in center field or Willie Bloomquist moving to left field and McDonald playing shortstop with Parra in center. The biggest issue in the next two weeks is that Young and catcher Miguel Montero had been the only guys in the lineup producing, with Young hitting .410/.500/897 and Montero .270/.372/.432. Paul Goldschmidt (.200, one home run) and Kubel (.207, zero home runs) will have to get going.

But this is a team built around its pitching staff, not its lineup. Arizona is 7-4 even though Daniel Hudson and Josh Collmenter haven't pitched well. In Collmenter's case, it's led to cries for rookie Trevor Bauer to get called up. Still, the rotation hasn't lost a decision, as all four defeats have been charged to the bullpen. After Wednesday's game against the Pirates, however, the schedule will get tougher: series against the Braves, Phillies, Marlins, Nationals, Mets and Cardinals before returning to the NL West. That's a lot of good pitching to potentially face without Young and maybe Upton.

Arizona's situation won't end up being unique. The National League has so much parity and so many teams with legitimate playoff chances that injuries and bench play will be vital keys to the playoff races. Benches and depth are often ignored, but Arizona's will now get tested.

First base: Double trouble for D-backs. Justin Upton sat out Tuesday's game against the Pirates due to the thumb injury he suffered April 8. Manager Kirk Gibson said his star right fielder -- batting .212 without an RBI -- saw a hand specialist and would likely undergo an MRI. "The thumb's been bothering him," Gibson told the Arizona Republic. "He's pushed hard through it. We've taken a day to re-evaluate what's going on with his thumb." To make matters worse for Arizona, Chris Young crashed into the wall in left-center making a leaping grab and left the game with a shoulder bruise. He too will undergo an MRI. The D-backs received a lot of criticism for signing Jason Kubel in the offseason, but this is where having four outfielders is an asset, not a problem. If Young can't go, Gerardo Parra can handle center.

Second base: Gold Glovers struggling on defense. Two-time Gold Glove winner Troy Tulowitzki committed just six errors last season but he made his sixth already in 2012, letting an easy double-play go through his legs, an error that led to two unearned runs and nearly cost Jamie Moyer his "oldest pitcher to win a game" achievement. Meanwhile, two-time Gold Glover Evan Longoria booted two grounders and made a throwing error for a three-error night in Tampa's 7-3 loss to the Blue Jays (three of Jeff Niemann's five runs were unearned). While Longoria just had one of those nights, Tulo's situation appears more serious, a possible "fielding slump" that is worth keeping an eye on.

Third base: No A's for Angels. Mike Scioscia removed Dan Haren after just 85 pitches, with the Angels leading 2-1 with two runners on and two out in the seventh. Lefty Daric Barton was up for the A's so Scioscia brought in Scott Downs, who did retire Barton to escape the jam. Even though Downs' is the team's best setup guy -- a guy who has proven he can retire right-handed hitters as well as lefties -- Scioscia took him out after four pitches and brought in Kevin Jepsen, a guy considerably lower in the bullen pecking order. Two walks and two hits later it was 3-2 Oakland, and then Yoenis Cespedes made it 5-2 with a two-run single off David Carpenter. Why Jepsen? Or why remove Haren so soon if your bullpen has been taxed in recent days? LaTroy Hawkins had thrown 31 pitches on Monday so was probably unavailable. Downs had thrown 14 pitches, hardly reason to limit him to four pitches. Jason Isringhausen had thrown 21 pitches on Sunday -- but Carpenter had thrown 37. The obvious question: Why not use closer Jordan Walden ... you know, for more than three batters. He's thrown two innings all season -- one inning in a 7-1 win and one inning in a 7-3 loss. In other words, he hasn't thrown a meaningful inning all season. In the last week, the Angels' bullpen has lost two leads in the eighth inning and one in the seventh. But whatever you do, SAVE YOUR CLOSER FOR THE NINTH INNING.

Home plate: Tweet of the day.

Rockies pitcher tweeting members of the Los Angeles Clippers after Jamie Moyer's win:

Shout out 2 boys from @laclippers.U witnessed history 2nite! @blakegriffin @bobbysimmons21 @mowilliams @RandyFoye Will u b able 2 dunk @ 49?

— Jeremy Guthrie (@JGuthrie46) April 18, 2012

I can't wait for the season to get going. You can't wait. Last October was the best we've had in years, and the offseason only fueled our baseball fever. Spring training is mercifully over. Let the games begin. Here are 100 reasons I'm pumped for the next seven months.

1. Albert Pujols in Anaheim. They call him The Machine, but Pujols had a few rusty bolts in 2011. He hit under .300 for the first time, his walk rate was down, and his extra-base-hit percentage was down. After a slow start through May (.267, nine home runs), he did hit much better after returning from his fractured forearm. He moves to a tougher division and will have to face the Rangers, A's and Mariners 19 times each -- with cavernous parks in Oakland and Seattle -- rather than the Cubs, Pirates and Astros. The pressure is on. The spotlight is bright. But machines are immune to all that, right?

2. Jim Thome's pursuit of a World Series title. He'll turn 42 in August and will play some first base until Ryan Howard returns. That's a pretty good story in itself (he hasn't played on the field since appearing in one game at first in 2008), but he's played in nine postseasons and reached two World Series without winning it all.

3. Jamie Moyer is back in the majors at age 49 and can surpass Jack Quinn as the oldest pitcher to win a game. Moyer's arsenal these days: an 80 mph fastball, a 70 mph changeup, a 65 mph curveball, a 55 mph slowball, a 20 mph Bugs Bunny ball and an 8 mph retirement community ball that bends time.

4. Justin Verlander's encore performance. Verlander threw 3,941 pitches in the regular season, the most since Livan Hernandez's 4,007 in 2005. Verlander added 360 more in the postseason. It's not necessarily a big deal -- Verlander's 2009 total is the third-highest since 2005 -- but you do wonder whether Jim Leyland will back off a little.

5. Roy Halladay's paintbrush.

6. Yu Darvish.

7. Yu Darvish's hair. Straight from Supercuts.

8. Adam Wainwright's return to the Cardinals' rotation. He was third in the 2009 NL Cy Young vote and second in 2010. He looked good this spring, pitching 18 2/3 innings and allowing just 11 hits. The strikeout rate wasn't great -- just nine K's -- but signs are positive a year after Tommy John surgery.

9. A full season of Stephen Strasburg, who was electric in his own return in September from TJ surgery in September 2010 -- his fastball averaged 95.8 mph, below the 97.3 he averaged in 2010 but still with enough velocity that it would have ranked No. 1 among starting pitchers. The big question for his season: How much the Nationals will limit his innings?

10. Jose Canseco's tweets.

11. Clayton Kershaw's slider. His fastball isn't too shabby, either. By the way, here's what Kershaw does in the offseason to stay in shape and get ready for the season.

12. Verlander, Halladay, Kershaw: three of the amazing generation of pitchers we get to enjoy. Maybe Darvish and Strasburg will join them. In 2011, 14 pitchers pitched at least 200 innings with an ERA of 3.00 or less. The last time we had even 10 such pitchers in one season was 1997, with 11. The last season with more than 14 was 1992, with 20. Yes, steroids are a small part of that. A small part. The best pitchers today are throwing harder and with meaner breaking stuff than we've ever seen. Guys like Kershaw and Halladay are relentless in their workout routines. It's not a lot of fun to be a hitter these days.

13. Well, Jose Bautista has a lot of fun.

14. A new generation of young hitters like Giancarlo Stanton, Eric Hosmer, Brett Lawrie, Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Starlin Castro and Jesus Montero. All will play their age-22 seasons in 2012.

15. Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez.

16. Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.

17. Will Cabrera win his first MVP award? He's finished fifth in the voting three times, fourth once and second once. Two things that could prevent him from winning:

A. Austin Jackson's on-base percentage. Cabrera hit .388 with runners in scoring position in 2011 but drove in "just" 105 runs.
B. Fielder. Batting behind Cabrera and his .400-plus OBP will give Fielder more RBI opportunities. If he ends up driving in 15 to 20 more runs than Cabrera, they could split votes.

Five other all-time greats who have never won an MVP award: Derek Jeter, Eddie Murray, Mike Piazza, Al Kaline, Manny Ramirez.

18. Cabrera playing third base. With Fielder at first base, the Tigers could have the worst first baseman and worst third baseman in baseball. (And, please, don't defend Fielder's defensive prowess at first base. He's better than Adam Dunn, I suppose ... but Dunn is a DH.)

19. Defensive runs saved!

Your leaders by position in 2011:

C -- Matt Wieters
1B -- Adrian Gonzalez
2B -- Ben Zobrist
3B -- Evan Longoria
SS -- Brendan Ryan
LF -- Brett Gardner
CF -- Austin Jackson
RF -- Jason Heyward

20. The Sandman.

21. The fans in Milwaukee. The Brewers drew a franchise-record 3.071 million fans in 2011. Depressed over losing Fielder? Hardly. They'll surpass that in 2012.

(Read full post)

Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, two of 2011's top-five finishers in the NL MVP voting, switched leagues, making the 2012 race potentially wide open. Ryan Braun and Matt Kemp finished 1-2 in the 2011 voting, but Braun will have to show he can put up the same numbers without Fielder hitting behind him, and Kemp faces the same problem as 2011 -- his team isn't a good bet to make the playoffs. SweetSpot bloggers must like the Reds' chances of returning to the playoffs because they voted Joey Votto as the clear preseason favorite as he finished first or second on 25 of 39 ballots.

Points on a 14-9-8-7-6 basis.

Since the wild-card era began in 1995, there have been 34 MVPs -- 29 of them played on playoff teams, the exceptions being Albert Pujols in 2008, Ryan Howard in 2006, Barry Bonds in 2004 and 2001, Alex Rodriguez in 2003 and Larry Walker in 1997. Not including Justin Verlander, 31 of the 33 MVPs hit .300, the exceptions being Jimmy Rollins in 2007 (.296) and Rodriguez in 2003 (.298).

So that basically leaves two criteria for establishing MVP candidacy:

1. Play for a playoff team.
2. Hit .300.

Why didn't Matt Kemp win the NL MVP Award in 2011? The Dodgers didn't make the playoffs. Why didn't Curtis Granderson win the AL MVP Award? He didn't hit .300.

Those who contribute to ESPN's baseball coverage were just asked to make our 2012 predictions, including award winners. My first thought when it came to picking the NL MVP: Giancarlo Stanton. After hitting 34 home runs as a 21-year-old, he could explode. With Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez in front of him and a new potentially more hitter-friendly park, 40 to 45 home runs with 120-plus RBIs isn't out of the question.

Then I realized: Stanton probably isn't going to hit .300, not after hitting .262 a season ago. With 166 strikeouts, he would likely have to cut way down on the whiffs to come closer to .300. It could happen, but it isn't likely to happen in 2012. Plus, the Marlins aren't a lock for the postseason.

So who does that leave? Let's get back to our original theory.

Here's the list of NL position players who hit .300 each of the past two seasons: Joey Votto, Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Starlin Castro. That's it. Matt Holliday and Carlos Gonzalez hit over .300 in 2010, but were at .296 and .295, respectively, in 2011.

Now, that's not the entire list of MVP candidates, of course. You have Kemp and Justin Upton, both popular picks. Upton has the advantage on playing for a team more likely to make the playoffs. And while Upton hasn't hit .300 either of the past two seasons, he did hit .300 in 2009. Tulowitzki and Gonzalez are strong choices, but I'm not high on the Rockies' playoff chances. Ramirez was once an MVP candidate. Ryan Zimmerman hit .307 in 2010 and could be on a playoff contender.

But I think we clearly have three top choices: Votto, Braun and Upton. I'm not saying those are the three best players in the National League. I'm saying those are the three guys most likely to win the MVP Award. Votto and Braun are better candidates to hit .300, so that leaves Upton No. 3 on my list. So we have the last two NL MVP winners. Braun has the advantage that -- minus Prince Fielder -- if the Brewers do make the playoffs he'll get credit for "carrying the team" and "overcoming adversity." On the other hand, Votto will have to carry a lineup with two rookies and not a lot of support outside of Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips.

Most people seem to believe the Reds have a better chance of making the playoffs. If that's the case, the edge goes to Votto. So my preseason NL MVP ballot would go like this:

1. Joey Votto
2. Ryan Braun
3. Justin Upton
4. Matt Kemp
5. Troy Tulowitzki

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

First the SweetSpot network took on the AL teams. Now they look at the NL. Which players are bloggers most excited to watch this season, and why?

Arizona Diamondbacks: Justin Upton

Upton was finally healthy for an entire season in 2011, and met all the lofty expectations placed on him in the second year of a six-year, $51.25 million contract signed when he was 22. He set career highs in homers (31), RBI (88) and stolen bases (21, caught nine times), while compiling a .289/.369/.529 line. Through their age-23 season, there have been only four others to match Upton’s 91 homers, 62 stolen bases and 119 OPS+: Alex Rodriguez, Jose Canseco, Ken Griffey Jr. and Orlando Cepeda. Pretty elite company, and Upton still has time to mature as a player and team leader. I’m looking forward to watching this multifaceted young man do his thing again in 2012. -- Diane Firstman, Value Over Replacement Grit

Atlanta Braves: Jason Heyward

A healthy Heyward has to be the player Braves fans are most excited to see this season. Through injuries, bad habits developed while playing injured and benchings, just about everything that could have gone wrong for such a talent did go wrong last year. Despite all of that, Heyward never hung his head or complained and actually managed to produce slightly above-league-average value in right field. Heyward has reportedly straightened his swing out this offseason and has really worked hard to get his game back on track. If Heyward can get a little more elevation on his swing, while maintaining the other aspects of his rookie performance, Braves fans could once again witness a once-in-a-generation talent leading the team to a successful season. -- Franklin Rabon, Capitol Avenue Club

Chicago Cubs: Travis Wood

In 2010, Wood made his big league debut for the Reds in an outing against the Cubs. He was brought in this offseason as part of the deal that sent Sean Marshall packing. For some, that was a disappointment considering Wood’s ERA last year was 4.84, but if we look beyond that we see that Wood posted a FIP ERA of 4.06, and Bill James projects him for an ERA of 3.75 in 2012. Also factor in that Great American Ballpark is a tough place to pitch; Wood had a 5.30 in the Gap vs. 3.58 on the road. Wrigley is not the hitters’ park we’ve all been told it is, primarily due to the wind blowing in often early in the year. The move from Cincinnati should do a lot toward boosting Wood’s production and confidence. -- Joe Aiello, View From the Bleachers

Cincinnati Reds: Mat Latos

Anticipation is building steadily for Latos' debut in a Cincinnati uniform. At 24 years of age and with a couple of excellent seasons already under his belt, the sky is the limit for him. For Reds fans, there is the hope that the club will have a legitimate ace at the top of the rotation for the first time in a couple of decades. Yes, there is reason for legitimate excitement in the Queen City. -- Chad Dotson, Redleg Nation

Colorado Rockies: Troy Tulowitzki

It’s a debate in my mind between Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. Both have tremendous gloves, bats and arms. Tulo trained this offseason with Jason Giambi in Las Vegas, and one could extrapolate some motivation from Dan O'Dowd's offseason acquisitions and trades. (O'Dowd believes the team needs leaders and better clubhouse guys, so what does that say about Tulo who plays the most important position on the field, is signed through 2020 and the face of the franchise?). What will Tulo do this year? I think 30 homers, Gold Glove-level defense and solidifying his place as the best player in baseball is a sure bet. Are the playoffs a sure bet for the Rockies? MVP for Tulo? I can't wait to see! -- Travis Lay, Blake Street Bulletin

Houston Astros: Jordan Lyles

With all of the changes, everyone seems to have forgotten that Lyles was recently the Astros’ top prospect. How quickly a young player that showed real promise last year has become overlooked in Houston. He's only 21 years old and had a number of very promising starts last year, posting a fair 4.41 ERA through July before running out of gas and getting shelled in August and September. He clearly needs to continue to build his stamina and strengthen himself to last the entire season. I'm interested to see how he continues to progress and if we can see him grow into the kind of player that can withstand the rigors of an entire major league season. I don't know how the Astros faithful have forgotten about Lyles so fast, but I think they'll be quickly and pleasantly reminded why he was considered a top prospect. -- Austin Swafford, Austin’s Astros 290 Blog

Los Angeles Dodgers: Kemp and Kershaw

Heaven knows it's hard not to be excited about the return of Juan Uribe or the potential of having Juan Rivera for a full season. But even so, there's a small, small part of me that is intrigued by these fellas named Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw. They made a bit of an impression last year, and I can't say I'm not going to be, well ... OK, hanging on their every swing and pitch. But to avoid being too reliant on last year's stars, the new Dodger Roadrunner, Dee Gordon, will also be an exciting player to watch. -- Jon Weisman, Dodger Thoughts

Miami Marlins: Logan Morrison

The player I'm truly most excited to see don a Marlins uniform this season is Logan Morrison. Following a splendid sophomore season in 2011, Morrison enters the new season as one of the game's top outfielders in the National League. With a solid approach and some power, a full season from Morrison could result in at least five additional wins for the Fish -- assuming Morrison can remain healthy. -- David Gershman, Marlins Daily

Milwaukee Brewers: Zack Greinke

Last season, the Brewers didn't even get to see their prized acquisition participate in spring training, as Greinke broke a rib playing pickup basketball and missed all of spring and the first month of the season. This season, no basketball for the former Cy Young award winner. He'll be there through spring training and Brewer fans hope to avoid the slow start he suffered through last season. Greinke posted just a 5.63 ERA despite an 80:12 K:BB ratio in May and June last season (mostly thanks to eight home runs) before calming down in the second half. Greinke finished strong, posting a 2.80 ERA thanks to a .233/.293/.373 line allowed in July, August and September. -- Jack Moore, Disciples of Uecker

New York Mets: David Wright

After a winter of discontent for Mets fans, it’s hard to be excited about anyone in particular. The team is in desperate financial straits, is slashing payroll at record rates, and appears destined to finish in last place. Wright, the one player for whom I reserve excitement, may not even be on the team after July 31. Still, I’m highly anticipating his 2012 performance, because after two disappointing seasons I’m convinced that Wright has too much pride to have a third. For the first time in his career, the Mets are “his” team -- he’s the de facto leader, the man who sets the example for everyone else. Chances are, Wright is determined to have a career year, and will pound opposing pitching with a savage vengeance -- all in the name of leading the Mets to a less-than-90-loss season. -- Joe Janish, Mets Today

Philadelphia Phillies: Antonio Bastardo

It was easy to be impressed by the sustained excellence of Atlanta's Jonny Venters last season, but Bastardo was quietly in the same neighborhood. Bastardo had a monster 2011 in which he struck out nearly 11 batters per nine innings and held opponents to a .524 OPS. If he can even approach his 2011 performance, Bastardo, along with Jonathan Papelbon and the Phillies' army of young guys who throw hard (Mike Stutes, Justin De Fratus, David Herndon and so on), gives the Phillies' bullpen the potential to be one of the best in the National League. -- Michael Baumann, Crashburn Alley

Pittsburgh Pirates: Pedro Alvarez

While Andrew McCutchen remains eminently exciting, we have a firm grasp on his star-level capabilities. I’m more excited to see whether Alvarez can rebound from his terrible sophomore season and get back to where his debut left off. The Pirates have a chance at a bright future, but all of their elite prospects are several years away. If there is any hope to be a competitive team in 2012, Alvarez has to give McCutchen and Neil Walker some help offensively. He has barely played a full season of games (169), and there is still time for him to meet the expectations that come as a No. 2 overall pick. Hey, Alex Gordon finally did. -- Paul Sporer, Pitt Plank

St. Louis Cardinals: Adam Wainwright

Despite losing everyone's perennial favorite player to watch to free agency, the defending champs have several captivating players in 2012. Partly because fans haven't seen him in a year and partly because he throws one of the most entertaining curveballs in the game, Wainwright will be a sight for sore eyes as he comes back from Tommy John surgery. But the player with whom Wainwright will forever be linked in fans' memories, Carlos Beltran, also figures to be a pivotal and exciting addition to the post-Pujols roster. -- Matt Philip, Fungoes

San Diego Padres: Carlos Quentin

The acquisition of Quentin brings energy, excitement and more total bases (210 in 2011 with the White Sox) and home runs (24) than any Padres player had last year. The Padres now employ two hitting coaches -- a model just a few MLB teams use -- as Phil Plantier and Alonzo Powell help with the workload hitting instruction requires. Quentin plays hard and he will help change the dynamics in the clubhouse. With the Padres' deep farm system and strong pitching, Quentin just might be the player to add the much needed spark of power in the middle of the order. -- Anna McDonald

San Francisco Giants: Buster Posey

I think I can speak for Giants fans everywhere when I say the player that I'm most excited to see play this season is Posey, and it's not even close. His injury in 2011 was a black mark on a year that we'd all like to forget. Beyond the numbers, Posey has quickly become the face of the Giants. He's young, energetic, talented and -- for us fans -- we hope healthy. Regardless of what happens, I'll be happy to see him back on the field in 2012. -- Chris Quick, Bay City Ball

Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg

How could it be anyone but Strasburg? When healthy, the most hyped pitching prospect in over a decade has delivered some fabulous pitching performances, and yet it feels like he is just scratching the surface of what he can do. He's as equally likely to blow guys away for a double-digit K performance as he is to shut a team down and let just two guys reach first over eight innings. He looked so good at the end of last year that the feeling is the only thing that can stop him in 2012 are the limits imposed by his own team to protect his recovering arm. -- Harper Gordek, Nationals Baseball

In January, I wrote a piece on the five best players in baseball, looking at each five-year span since 1969-1973. The most recent five-year span ranked as Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, Joe Mauer, Adrian Gonzalez and Matt Holliday. Considering Pujols is coming off the worst season of his career and just turned 32, and Utley and Mauer suffered through injuries, the title of "best player in baseball" seems more wide open than it has been in decades.

With that in mind, I asked Twitter followers to name their best player in baseball. Here are the results of the first 100 responses:

Troy Tulowitzki: 19 votes
Albert Pujols: 18 votes
Jose Bautista: 13 votes
Matt Kemp: 11.5 votes
Miguel Cabrera: 9 votes
Evan Longoria: 7 votes
Joey Votto: 7 votes
Justin Verlander: 6 votes
Roy Halladay: 4 votes
Robinson Cano: 3 votes
Ryan Braun: 1 vote
Jacoby Ellsbury: 1 vote
Justin Upton: 0.5 vote

The fact that 13 different players received votes and none received even 20 percent shows the lack of consensus on the topic. Rockies shortstop Tulowitzki edged out Pujols in the voting, although that may be have been influenced by the fact that I posted the question around 9 p.m. ET.

Anyway, here were some responses:

still Pujols, but closest it's been in a while. --@sahadevsharma

Verlander. Most dominant pitcher in pitcher heavy time. --@zcrizer

Best is Troy Tulowitzki. Key infield position at SS. Leader. Silver Slugger. Gold Glove. --@Stars5Steve

Tulo. Premier player at a premium position. --@cmiller0

Considering Albert is only a year removed from a 7.5 WAR and .420 wOBA, I'll side with him. Too close to call though. --@LWM_sucks

jose bautista easily --@TdotsFinest11

Miguel Cabrera without a doubt, so consistent you can't deny it, gives you the whole package. --@GadyBlitz

Ryan Braun. Even without the roids. --@oneandonlyburke

The expectation was that the NL MVP would be a two-man race, and the Baseball Writers' Association of America delivered exactly that, with left fielder Ryan Braun of the Milwaukee Brewers coming out decisively ahead of Dodgers center fielder Matt Kemp. Braun got 20 first-place votes and finished first or second on all 32 ballots. Kemp received half as many first-place votes, earned 16 second-place votes and wound up 56 points behind.

We’ll get into how much this is simultaneously good and bad news in a minute, but first things first. This is great for Ryan Braun, and congratulations to him.

Even if Kemp had received first- or second-place votes instead of the six third-place votes, the only bragging right he’d have achieved would have been losing by 40. So there isn’t much to rail about as far as Prince Fielder's snagging a lone first-place vote and four seconds, or the one first- or second-place vote that wasn’t among those three going to Justin Upton. Voting for Upton (or Fielder, to a lesser extent) over Kemp and Braun was weird, but it wasn’t decisive.

The good news, if you’re of an analytical bent, is that the right two guys showed up first or second on all but six of 64 potential ballot positions. The narrow split between Braun and Kemp in terms of their unexamined hitting statistics was a key factor in the equally narrow result. Braun led by just eight points of OPS, as they finished 1-2 in slugging and total bases and 4-5 in OBP (to Kemp’s narrow advantage, .399 to .397).

If there’s a surprise, it’s that Kemp led in some stats you’d normally associate with a victory via BBWAA voters, topping the circuit in home runs and RBIs and even tying for second in stolen bases. Kemp played the more important defensive position, and whatever fielding metric you want to turn to, he was at least adequate, where Braun’s play might be most favorably described as strong-armed or dramatic. From the analysis side of things, Kemp came out handily ahead, winning WAR and adjusted OPS+ and batting wins and batting runs and equivalent runs and true runs. (Not to mention just plain old runs.)

For all those category wins, Kemp may as well have won top honors at Cannes, Sundance and the People’s Choice Awards. It still isn't an Oscar, and the frustration among statheads is that this reflects a systemic problem with the voters and with the very thing being voted upon.

As Braun already has said generously, the biggest reason (he felt) he won was that he was the guy on a winning team. That might seem like a problem, with the award or with the voters, but the stated criteria for what goes into an MVP award have been broad enough in defining the value in “valuable” that the electorate has been able to go where it will. For more than a few writers, as with a lot of fans, there’s a readiness to associate team success with individual value.

That’s unfortunate, but the muddle on the sabermetric side of the debate over what constitutes value probably doesn’t help matters any. But in this instance there wasn’t any disagreement: Kemp and Braun were the two most valuable players in the league in terms of wins above replacement, whichever brand you’re using, Baseball-Reference or FanGraphs. (Baseball Prospectus’ BWARP had Braun third behind Joey Votto, that bit of statistical iconoclasm had zero traction with the voters -- he didn’t get a vote higher than third place.)

So, although a natural reaction among my fellow statheads is that this is further proof that my other colleagues within the BBWAA don’t get metrics, how fair is that? Collective guilt’s a bit of a slippery subject, though, and 10 voters gave Kemp their first-place votes.

Perhaps some of the voters don’t get the relative importance of a hitter who plays a decent center field over a broadly similar hitter who plays an adequate left field. Perhaps a few others are reliably intent in associating the “valuable” part of being MVP with team success. Without a standard definition, you can sort of see where people voting that way are coming from. For better and for worse, this isn’t an award handed out for statistical achievement alone.

If anything, the fact that Kemp and Braun finished so close in the balloting reflects that there was at least consensus that these were the two most valuable players in the league, and that from among the 32 electors who had this year’s vote, a decisive majority favored Braun. However, if you wound up with another 32 electors from across the 16 National League markets, I think it’s fairly likely you’d find the exact reverse of this outcome and wind up with 20 first-place votes for Kemp. If the BBWAA’s franchise were a full instead of a selective democracy, we might have seen a different outcome, which is significant in terms of who’s got hardware, if perhaps less so in terms of confirming a consensus that Braun and Kemp were the league’s two most valuable players. That’s admittedly speculative, and it isn’t like expanding the franchise, even within the BBWAA, is even remotely in the cards.

Down-ballot, there are always the interesting tidbits to pick out. Which two voters dropped Albert Pujols from their ballots? Which four forgot about Votto? Why did Miguel Montero show up on only one ballot? Who was putting John Axford on any ballot anywhere, as three people did? It’s fun to kick around a little bit right now and perhaps for the next 15 minutes, but it’s another way of putting the trivial in MVP voting trivia.

The other phenomenon that I find fascinating is that on the real ballots as from the SweetSpot network’s caucus, the Phillies’ Roy Halladay drew more support from the voters than his rival for this year’s NL Cy Young, Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw won the hardware, but given Halladay’s superiority over Kershaw in a whole passel of interpretive performance metrics, my quick inference would be that there are more than a few statheads among the electorate.

In the end, the result is dissatisfying to those of us with an investment in seeing these outcomes reflect what the best analysis already suggests. The process might be slowly trending in that direction, and that might reflect the changing demographics of the baseball writers and their ages. However, recent votes and revealed ballots have made it clear that there are plenty of “old guys” in the organization who’ve been receptive to modern performance-evaluation tools and have used them to help inform their votes. As much as Kemp’s case was strongest, the best thing those of us who use sabermetrics can do is deal with the result by continuing to try to elevate the conversation with facts and data. Giving up on the process just guarantees that you won’t win an argument you can’t even have.

Tuesday’s National League Most Valuable Player vote probably isn’t going to inspire quite the same outcry as Monday’s American League outcome. That’s because the AL MVP race gave us reasons to re-explore the reliably entertaining debate about whether or not pitchers should be considered, whether or not it’s “a hitter’s award,” and maybe even made a few of us ponder the more esoteric question of why the Hank Aaron Award for the top hitter in each league ought to be invested with greater significance.

The NL’s shorter spread of top candidates and possible victors makes for an easier choice, with Matt Kemp of the Los Angeles Dodgers representing the heavy favorite among statheads, while Ryan Braun of the Milwaukee Brewers might represent the favorite for those inclined to invest some additional significance in the performance of a player's team. Arguing whether that latter perspective has a place in the argument is an argument all to itself about what the MVP award is supposed to reward, and that ambiguity is sure to keep debates raging, year after year.

Statistically, the raw hitting data might seem to slightly favor Braun’s case over Kemp’s: Braun hit .332/.397/.597 with 33 home runs to Kemp’s .324/.399/.586 with 39 homers, and Kemp’s 40 steals in 51 attempts doesn’t represent a huge advantage over Braun’s 33-for-39 breakout performance on the bases.

But take into account their home parks -- Dodger Stadium being a tougher place to hit -- and Kemp’s solid performance at a key defensive position to Braun’s mediocrity in a corner outfield spot, and you get a couple of big reasons to wind up with Kemp over Braun. Whatever flavor of WAR you care to employ if so inclined gives Kemp a decided advantage, 10.0 to 7.7 using Baseball-Reference.com, or 8.7 to 7.8 if you’re using FanGraphs. If you’re using BaseballProspectus.com’s variation on this theme, BWARP, the gap widens to 8.9 to 6.4, with Joey Votto of the Cincinnati Reds slipping in between them at 7.0.

With all of that in mind as we look forward to the announcement, we polled the SweetSpot network’s bloggers for their two cents and top five choices for NL MVP. The results:

Matt Kemp, Dodgers: 335 points (22 first-place votes)
Ryan Braun, Brewers: 238 points (3)
Joey Votto, Reds: 134 points
Justin Upton, Diamondbacks: 102 points
Prince Fielder, Brewers: 84 points
Roy Halladay, Phillies: 60 points
Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies: 56 points
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers: 26 points
Albert Pujols, Cardinals: 26 points
Jose Reyes, Mets: 19 points
Shane Victorino, Phillies: 12 points
Lance Berkman, Cardinals: 8 points

The gang’s as data-savvy a group as you’d wish for, so to some extent the result might have been a foregone conclusion; we’ll see if this year’s BBWAA electors arrive at the same result. Certainly if I had a vote, Kemp would have been my selection. Perhaps it was with the anticipation of this outcome that the Dodgers consummated their eight-year, $160 million deal with him, but the award should be immaterial to his compensation -- he had a great season with or without the trophy, and the deal’s fraught with risk, as David Schoenfield has noted.

After Kemp, the SweetSpot crew sensibly ran with Braun and Votto. Justin Upton’s case as best Diamondback and overall fine season (.289/.369/.529) get a healthy amount of respect, with standbys like Fielder, Pujols and Tulo getting some due down-ballot. Seeing both Reyes and Victorino is a nice reflection of their importance as top performers at key defensive positions, albeit stars whose seasons suffered from being shortened by injury.

What might also be interesting about this spread in light of Justin Verlander’s triumph in the AL MVP voting is that a couple of pitchers drew attention in the SweetSpot’s internal ballot. Statheads’ champ Roy Halladay -- well, my own, at any rate -- came out ahead of NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw in the network’s MVP voting. We’ll see if pitchers command anything like this amount of respect among the BBWAA’s NL Cy Young voters.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.