ESPN MLB

Forget Albert Pujols. There's another reason to watch the Los Angeles Angels, and his name is Mike Trout.

For all the hype Bryce Harper has rightfully received, it's time to start giving a few headlines to another rookie phenom, time to give the Left Coast a little love. Trout went 3-for-4 with a home run, a stolen base and three runs scored in the Angels' 4-0 victory over the A's on Tuesday. In 15 games since getting recalled from Triple-A, Trout is hitting .316 BA/.369 OBP/.561 SLG, reminding Angels fans what an All-Star batting line is supposed to look like and why a homegrown, five-tool rookie with young, fresh legs is a player to get more pumped about watching than a money-for-hire Hall of Famer you purchased on the free-agent market.

So while we wait for Pujols to get untracked, maybe the Angels' answer to their offensive prayers -- they've been shut out an MLB-leading eight times -- is a kid who doesn't turn 21 until August.

Against Bartolo Colon, he took a middle-in fastball and crushed it just to the right of center field, off the back wall behind the center-field fence in Anaheim. There aren't many leadoff hitters who can mash a pitch with that type of authority. The other day, he showcased his quick, compact swing, yanking a 2-1 fastball from Yu Darvish well over the left-field fence in Texas. His first home run came on a 1-0 fastball off Toronto's Kyle Drabek, a 93 mph heater low in the zone that Trout hit to left-center.

I think those returns are pretty clear: Trout can do some serious damage when he gets into a fastball count.

Trout is even faster than Harper and much more advanced defensively (although he lacks Harper's arm). And for all the awe for Harper's quick rise, Trout is only a year older. Like Harper, he debuted in the majors while still 19 years old. Like the previous two 19-year-old center-field phenoms -- a couple of guys named Andruw Jones and Ken Griffey Jr. -- Trout has that broad range of skills that should make him a franchise player as he matures.

My favorite aspect of the Trout/Harper comparisons is that the two will always be linked, even though they play in different leagues and cities three time zones apart. Just like we debated Rodriguez and Jeter and Garciaparra back in the late '90s, or like New Yorkers debated Mays and Mantle and Snider in the 1950s, I'm sure we'll be endlessly debating Trout and Harper for years to come.

The other highly rated prospects entering the season were Tampa Bay Rays lefty Matt Moore and Mariners catcher/designed hitter Jesus Montero. They aren't off to impressive starts like Trout and Harper, but let's take a closer look at them as well.

Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
I'll make this one brief. We've seen Harper's lightning-quick bat speed and raw power with his home runs in back-to-back games -- one blast to dead center and the one Tuesday to deep right-center. We've also seen a few misplays in the field, however, from losing a ball in the darkened skies Sunday to dropping a fly ball Monday.

And of course, we've seen the rocket arm and the top-grade athleticism. There's no reason to believe he can't be a superb fielder with more experience. I think the biggest positive is his strikeout rate hasn't been excessive, with 11 in 60 at-bats. Along with his ability to hit left-handers, that was the big concern of his premature call-up. While there were initial thoughts that his time in the majors would be temporary, his play and the Nationals' injuries mean he's here to stay.

Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays
When I polled the SweetSpot network bloggers before the season for their American League rookie of the year predictions, Moore came out on top, outpointing Darvish. I wasn't quite as optimistic, as I believed Moore's spectacular playoff performance against the Rangers raised expectations to unrealistic levels. The only rookie starter since 2000 to pitch at least 162 innings with an ERA less than 3.00 was Jeremy Hellickson, and his flukey .224 average on balls in play had something to do with that. With Moore, I still wanted to see a guy who had the consistent command needed to dominate in the majors.

That's been a big issue with him so far, as he's walked 22 batters in 39 innings, a rate of 5.1 walks per nine. As Justin Havens of ESPN Stats & Info points out, Moore also has struggled with runners on base:


Justin also writes that Moore "continues to leave entirely too many balls up in the zone, ranking sixth out of 115 pitchers in percentage of total pitches 'up' in the zone." This ties into Moore having the third-highest walk rate (12.4 percent) among starters, behind only Ubaldo Jimenez and Drabek, and six home runs allowed in seven starts.

There are no major issues here, other than pointing out that most young pitchers do go through a learning curve. Hellickson -- who doesn't have the raw stuff Moore owns -- set the bar high with his own rookie campaign, but that type of season is the exception.

Jesus Montero, Seattle Mariners
It's also a mixed bag so far with Montero. With five home runs, he's displayed the power stroke scouts projected. His overall batting line of .256/.285/.411, however, isn't much to get excited about, as the occasional long ball is marred by a poor 29/6 strikeout/walk ratio.

There are a few things going on here. He has expanded the strike zone, swinging at 36.2 percent of pitches outside the strike zone. That's not necessarily a career-killing attribute (Josh Hamilton currently has the second-highest rate in the majors), but it's among the 30 worst percentages so far. The bigger problem is he isn't making contract on those pitches and certainly not good contact. He's swinging and missing at those pitches 56.6 percent of the time, which again places him among the 30 worst rates.

When you dig deeper into the numbers, it's pretty clear what's happening. Check out the heat maps below. On the left, Montero against "hard" stuff, and on the right, Montero against "soft" stuff.



Against "hard" stuff, he's hitting .362 (25-for-69) with four home runs and five doubles. Against "soft" stuff, he's hitting .133 (8-for-60) with one home run and no doubles. So if pitchers get ahead in the count, they can get Montero to chase the offspeed stuff out of the zone.

A final issue is Montero's ability -- or lack of it -- to pull the ball. While he's known for his opposite-field power, I'm not sure you can live off that trait alone. Of Montero's five home runs, two have gone to right-center, one to center and two to left-center. His hit chart is littered with fly balls to right field and the right-field line. Frankly, he just hasn't shown the ability to pull the ball with any authority. To me, this reads like a guy who can be jammed inside and will chase pitches outside. Look, the pitch recognition should improve, but he's going to have to figure out how to do more damage to all fields.

The injury to Miguel Olivo also forced the Mariners to play Montero more regularly behind the plate. I haven't seen the defensive butcher advertised, but he's clearly a work in progress. A couple of starts ago, Kevin Millwood was constantly shaking him off. However, the two were on the same page in Millwood's win over the Yankees on Sunday. Opponents are 8-for-10 stealing bases off him.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

It was a very special Monday edition of the Baseball Today podcast as Keith Law and I tackled numerous subjects delving into our great game, including:

1. Ryan Braun speaks and accepts his MVP award. What should Braun have done and is there a good ending here?

2. We also discuss the latest news on Marco Scutaro, Fausto Carmona, Kevin Millwood and others, and what these moves mean.

3. In keeping with an ESPN.com theme this week, we discuss radical changes to the game, both from colleagues and listeners on Twitter. How do you feel about the designated hitter, expansion, umpires, etc.

4. Even our producer has a radical idea! But does it make any sense? Perhaps not, but we do agree we miss scheduled doubleheaders!

5. And finally, what does Death Cab for Cutie have anything to do with our fine show? Find out!

So download and listen to Monday’s Baseball Today podcast, meowing and all!

Eric Karabell and Mark Simon discuss all the transactions and make some predictions on Monday's Baseball Today podcast . Topics include:

• Mark makes his season predictions, including win totals for every team and a surprise winner in the NL Central.
• The Red Sox send Hideki Okajima to the minors.
• Andrew Bailey headed to the DL.
• Carlos Silva gets released ... is he better than Kevin Millwood?
• Jayson Werth hitting second and the Nationals outfield situation.
• Mark shares a story about Mike Hampton.
• Some talk of obscure jerseys ... including the great Bombo Rivera.

As you can imagine, with the season nearing, moves being made and players hitting the DL, Eric Karabell and Keith Law had plenty to discuss in Friday's Baseball Today podcast, such as:

• Neftali Feliz named closer for the Rangers.
• Cody Ross out, is Brandon Belt ready?
• The latest on Brad Lidge and Chase Utley.
• Braves' rotation -- Brandon Beachy in, Mike Minor out.
• Yankees sign Kevin Millwood.
• Thoughts on Aroldis Chapman, Jesus Montero, Michael Young and more.

Baseball headlines have been sparse over the past week (with the exception of Andy Pettitte calling it quits). Here in early February, many teams have turned their focus away from offseason roster fidgeting and toward spring training preparations.

There are, however, a few intriguing names still available on the free-agent market. This group of players -- overlooked for various reasons and typically willing to sign for a reduced price -- could be referred to as the bargain bin.

Signings at this stage of the offseason typically don't generate much excitement, but that doesn't mean it's impossible to find a player who can help out. Jonny Gomes, Orlando Hudson and Jim Thome are all examples of players who signed in February last year and went on to make meaningful contributions for playoff teams.

So let's sort through the bargain bin and see which of baseball's remaining free agents might be able to make a difference on the cheap for clubs with postseason aspirations.

Vladimir Guerrero: He earned plenty of accolades last year -- All-Star, Silver Slugger, even a few MVP votes -- but the market has been bone dry for Guerrero this winter, to the point that the Orioles appear to be bidding against themselves on a one-year deal. Teams are no doubt scared of his age, his balky knees and his second-half drop-off in 2010. Yeah, Vlad has his flaws, but he can still hit. I'm surprised there's not more interest.

Russell Branyan: The lefty can really only do one thing: hit home runs. His career BA is .234, he strikes out a ton, he's not good in the field and supposedly not very pleasant in the clubhouse. But boy, can he hit home runs. Sixty-eight over the last three years, in limited playing time, with a .515 slugging percentage. You'd think someone would sign him for that reason alone.

David Eckstein: He's lurking. Like a gremlin in the shadows ready to pounce forth in a flurry of grit. Which fan base will become his unsuspecting victim?

Jose Guillen: He was acquired by offense-hungry San Francisco in an August trade, and went on to post a sub-.700 OPS over 42 games. He was left off the postseason roster and forced to watch his team win a World Series from home, and now he remains unemployed in February. It's been a rough few months for Guillen. He can really crank it when he gets in the zone, but his flaws are evident.

Kevin Millwood: There's some value in a veteran who's likely to give you close to 200 average innings, and that's what Millwood is. He's nothing flashy but he's made at least 29 starts in each of the past six seasons and registered a decent enough 4.37 ERA during that span. For a rotation short on depth, he could prove to be a wise one-year investment.

Jermaine Dye: In 2008, he was one of the key figures in Chicago's dramatic run to the postseason. In 2009, he bashed 27 homers and drove in 81 runs. He sat out last year, but at 37 Dye still might have something to offer teams in need of a right-handed bat.

Jarrod Washburn: A 36-year-old junkballer who's 16 months removed from big-league action, Washburn isn't the most appealing commodity in the world but he was a solid innings-eater up until his disappearance. Prior to sitting out the 2010 campaign, he'd strung together nine straight seasons with at least 149 innings pitched and an ERA never exceeding 4.69. He'd probably take a minor-league deal.

-- Nick Nelson writes Nick’s Twins blog, a blog about the Minnesota Twins.

Why will the Brewers contend in 2011?

1. The Brewers have already patched up their bullpen.
On opening day, the Brewers' bullpen contained (among others) Trevor Hoffman and Claudio Vargas. After two awful starts, Jeff Suppan joined this awful duo. Those three all had ERAs above 6.90 in April and May, and they combined for a stunning minus-2.96 WPA – mostly via Hoffman and his five blown saves, but also from the general incompetence of the trio. That means that this group was three wins worse than merely average relievers.

Since then, Hoffman has been replaced as closer by John Axford, Suppan has been replaced in the rotation by Chris Narveson and in the bullpen by Kameron Loe. Zach Braddock has taken the role of top lefty from Mitch Stetter (a middling-at-best LOOGY who was utterly incompetent against RHB). Vargas’s low-leverage innings have been split between players like Chris Capuano, who is an interesting project if nothing else, and David Riske, who is merely biding the time until his contract expires.

Axford, Braddock, and Loe have been fantastic since joining the Brewers, combining for plus-2.22 WPA in their time on the team, largely coming after Jeff Suppan’s June 7 release. All three will be under team control next year, making them near locks to be important bullpen pieces next season, added to relievers Carlos Villanueva and Todd Coffey.

2. The Brewers have a favorable payroll situation.
With the toxic contracts of Jeff Suppan, Bill Hall, and others coming off the books, the Brewers will shed roughly $45 million in contracts after this season. After arbitration raises, I estimate that the Brewers will be about $25 million below the 2010 opening day payroll, even if Prince Fielder remains a Brewer. That means they'll have some money to play with.

The Brewers aren't losing much, either. The only important player from 2010 who's on his way out is Jim Edmonds, but he can be replaced in-house by either Carlos Gomez or Lorenzo Cain. At every other position, the Brewers are solid. CHONE's August update projects the Brewers with one above-average player (+2.0 WAR per 150 games) at each position.

That means the Brewers can spend most, if not all, of that "extra" $25 million on their weakness: starting pitching. The market this winter isn't great, but Javier Vazquez, Brandon Webb, Ted Lilly, Jon Garland (likely to decline his mutual option), Jake Westbrook, and Kevin Millwood, among others, are all interesting options. Perhaps a better move would be to use some of that cash to deal with a team like the Marlins, who might attempt to move Ricky Nolasco's high arbitration award in the offseason. They could also trade Prince Fielder for pitching, as Mat Gamel could step in and likely be an average first baseman. For the right pitcher, trading Fielder could actually make the Brewers better in 2011.

The roster certainly isn't perfect, but much of it is returning and there's money to fix the holes.

3. The NL Central is weak.
St. Louis has a good team this year, certainly, but it's not without its holes. Perennial All-Stars Albert Pujols, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, and Matt Holliday form an excellent core, but there are question marks after those four players. The back of the rotation has struggled mightily, as the Cardinals have attempted patches with Blake Hawksworth and Jeff Suppan, eventually trading Ryan Ludwick away for Jake Westbrook. Losing Ludwick, one of the better right fielders in the NL, will hurt next year, and Westbrook will be a free agent. They also lose Brad Penny, who has been injured much of the year, and Felipe Lopez, who was an absolute steal in last year's free-agent market. The Cardinals have played like an 89-win team this season according to Beyond the Box Score's power rankings (looking at cW%). They have a modest amount of money to spend this year, but they are losing enough to the point where I wouldn't feel comfortable projecting any sort of major increase, especially given that St. Louis's top financial priority will be locking up Albert Pujols past 2011, the last year of his current contract.

The Cincinnati Reds have played about as well as the Cardinals so far this year, but there's really only one word to describe why I'm not super high on this team heading into next year: regression. Will Scott Rolen continue to be a power threat in his mid 30s? Is Mike Leake a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher despite skipping the minor leagues? Is Arthur Rhodes really one of the best left-handed relief pitchers in baseball? I'm inclined to say "no" to all of these questions. There's enough young talent on this Reds team to still be solid next season, and they might add Aroldis Chapman to the mix as well, and they won't have Edinson Volquez recovering from Tommy John surgery for half a season. That said, there's no reason to believe that the Reds are anything more than an 89-win team themselves, and simple regression says that we should expect something closer to 86 or 87.

4. "Contending" doesn't mean favorites.
The favorites to win the division next year will be, barring the unforeseen, Cincinnati and St. Louis, in some order and for good reason. However, they're not elite teams, and given the crazy things that can happen during the course of the season, they could each just as easily end up as .500 squads as 95-win teams. The Brewers look like a true talent 81-win team right now. They've played .519 baseball since releasing Suppan, and that's just above what the Beyond the Boxscore rankings expect (a .505 cW percent). I would feel pretty confident calling the roster on hand an 81-win team for next season.

The Brewers had a similar projection opening the season last year, and were given playoff odds of about 17 percent by Baseball Prospectus prior to the season. With the money available to plug holes in the rotation, the Brewers can definitely make themselves a preseason contender (say, 30-40 percent playoff odds) prior to the season, even if they're not favorites.

Jack Moore writes about the Brewers at Disciples of Uecker, a member of ESPN.com's SweetSpot Network.

For some reason, I've got a sick fascination with pitchers who are allowed to pitch and pitch and pitch, despite spectacular failure. I don't know if everyone below precisely fits that description, but here are the 10 guys with ERAs higher than 5 who have pitched enough innings to qualify for the ERA rankings:

Even before tacking on 13 runs in five innings last weekend, Scott Kazmir's ERA was 5.98; now it's 6.92. Even during Kazmir's four-game June winning streak, he walked nearly as many hitters as he struck out. It's hard (for me) to say exactly what's wrong with Kazmir ... Except we know he's not throwing as hard as he used to, we know he's striking out many fewer hitters than he used to, and we know he's walking more than he used to. All of which could have been said last year, too. Which isn't an encouraging trend.

Like Kazmir, Nick Blackburn (6.40) pitches for a contender, which makes his continuing presence in the rotation that much more problematic. Blackburn's problem isn't that he's getting too few strikeouts; it's that he's not getting any strikeouts. I exaggerate, of course. But 34 strikeouts in 97 innings is nearly impossible. Blackburn's struck out 3.15 per nine innings; sinker-baller Aaron Cook is the only other ERA qualifier under 4 ... and he's at 3.97 Ks per nine. Blackburn's just operating on a completely different level, which would be cool if that different level wasn't that of a scrappy non-prospect in Triple-A. Fundamentally, he's better than this. Blackburn entered this season with a 4.14 career ERA, which was somewhat lucky but not wildly so, considering his 2.46 strikeout-to-walk ratio. You can understand why the Twins haven't given up on him yet.

Kevin Millwood's on the DL, so perhaps he shouldn't be on this list. But Millwood has started 18 games for the Orioles, and he does have a 5.77 ERA. Not exactly what management had in mind when they traded for Millwood, hoping his veteran presence would stabilize a rotation composed mostly of much younger pitchers. Granted, the Rangers are paying $3 million of Millwood's salary this season ... which still leaves (roughly) $9 million for the Orioles.

Next we've got a couple of twin Royals, Prince Kyle Davies (5.57) and Prince Brian Bannister (5.56) ...

First Banny, then Davies:
Even at their very best,
Our closer figures to get
A relaxing two-day rest.

The Royals aren't going anywhere and they don't have anyone better than Davies and Bannister, so they may as well keep pitching. And each is capable of doing better. Just slightly better, though. If the Royals ever get better, they'll have room for just one No. 5 starter.

Scott Feldman (5.32) is the one guy who really, really wasn't supposed to be on this list. Not after his 17-8, 4.08 ERA campaign just one year ago. Of course, Feldman's skills never really supported that season's record ... But then again, they don't suggest a 5.32 ERA, either. Feldman was mildly lucky last year, and this year he's been terribly unlucky, giving up a .343 batting average on balls in play. Feldman's going to win more games and post a lower ERA in the second half, which is good news for the Rangers and better news for Feldman (whose postseason role is now -- with the Rangers' acquisition of Cliff Lee -- highly questionable).

Cleveland's Justin Masterson (5.31) is another guy who just needs to keep pitching, and for two reasons: 1) His team isn't going anywhere anyway, and 2) there are some things to like here. Masterson throws hard, his ground-ball rate is high, and his strikeout rate is fine. He does walk too many hitters (and always has), but if he can cut his walk rate by 25 percent he'll be a perfectly fine No. 3 or 4 starter.

Everybody mentioned above suffers the disadvantage of pitching in the Big Boy League, with their better hitters and designated hitters and the like. To be fair, I could have focused on a league-neutral statistic like ERA+ or something. I didn't. I like numbers that start with 5. Sue me. But all this makes San Diego's Kevin Correia (5.26) really stand out, as he pitches in a pitcher's park in the National League. Just think how good the Padres would be if they didn't have the worst pitcher (ERA-wise) in the league. Correia looked pretty good last year. But he's 29, and in his career he's got a 4.54 ERA as a starter. Maybe he's just not quite good enough to pitch for a team with postseason aspirations.

Tim Wakefield (5.22), you can judge for yourself. I'm not saying anything negative about Kid '66.

And finally, we've got our second National Leaguer, Nate Robertson (5.10). Robertson is simply a place-holder, and the Marlins can hardly worry about his contract; they're paying him $400,000 this season ... while the Tigers are contributing $9.6 million. If you're a fan, enjoy Nate Robertson while you can. You might not see much of him after August.

Did you hear that whoosh sound just a moment ago? That was Charlie Manuel's reputation, rushing past you on its way to the bottom. That other whoosh, though? The one coming from Charm City? That was Kevin Millwood's trade value:

Interim manager Juan Samuel expressed concern for starting pitcher Kevin Millwood during his post-game interview on MASN.

Millwood lasted only one inning, allowing five runs and throwing 45 pitches before Samuel began parading relievers to the mound. He's posted a 9.89 ERA in his last seven starts, raising his season ERA to 5.77.

"We're starting to be concerned," Samuel said. "We don't know if something's there, his elbow or something. We just know today that Kranny (pitching coach Rick Kranitz) noticed his ball not coming that good. His velocity was down."

And so ends today's lesson in How to Not Shed "Interim" Tag 101 ... Seriously, Samuel probably couldn't have done anything to kill Millwood's trade value, as Millwood's already done just about everything possible. Just a couple of weeks ago, Millwood's ERA was still low enough (and his strikeout-to-walk ratio high enough) that Dave Cameron could still suggest that Millwood might be "the new Pavano."

No more. Not after this recent run of horrendous starts.

Still, if some contending team is desperate? And doesn't want to give up anything but a Grade C prospect and/or a few million bucks? Millwood's still got a good strikeout-to-walk ratio and he's still throwing -- or has thrown, over the course of the season -- just as hard as he did last year. Obviously, you don't want to trade for an old pitcher with a bum elbow. But if Millwood's not hurt, he's still a decent bet to have a decent second half.

(H/T: BTF's Newsstand)

Jeff Wilson on the Rangers' rotation in 2010:

Kevin Millwood hit his magic number Monday night when he got Oakland second baseman Mark Ellis to bounce into a double play in the fifth inning. The right-hander reached 180 innings to automatically earn a $12 million contract for next season and lock up a spot in the Rangers' 2010 rotation. After Millwood and 17-game winner Scott Feldman, though, there are no guarantees for the rotation.

Sure, Tommy Hunter and Derek Holland are strong candidates, but manager Ron Washington said that that rookie duo will have to earn a spot during spring training. "Once we get to spring training, everyone's going to be competing," he said. "Hunter and Holland, they've still got to compete. Doing good the first time around, the challenge comes the second time around to repeat."

The funny thing about that? Hunter and Holland haven't actually doing so good. Holland's got the best strikeout-to-walk ratio among the Ranger starters, but he's also given up the most homers and has a 6.17 ERA. Hunter's 8-4 with a 3.25 ERA, but has struck out only five hitters per nine innings. Both are still exceptionally young -- Hunter turned 23 a few months ago, Holland will turn 23 in a couple of weeks -- and both still figure as major leaguer starters. But both still have a lot to prove.

Which I suppose is Washington's point.

Among the other candidates for next season's rotation: Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison, Dustin Nippert, and Eric Hurley. Hurley has spent this season on the disabled list, and Harrison has joined him for much of the season. Nippert's 28, and has a 5.73 career ERA. This season's been his best, but he's still walked too many batters and given up too many home runs. Neftali Feliz. Well, we know about him, don't we? A starter during most of his professional career, Feliz has pitched exclusively out of the bullpen since joining the big club in August, and given up only 12 hits in 28 innings.

Feliz is even younger than Hunter and Holland, and one should not trifle with talent like his. Still, it's hard for me to imagine a winning rotation next season that doesn't include Feliz for at least half the season.

With the Rangers having practically eliminated themselves from playoff contention, Tim Cowlishaw has a timely money-saving idea:

Now that they trail Boston by 5 1/2 and the Angels by 6 games, are the Rangers really in any kind of a hunt? I would say only if they sweep the Angels this weekend should they continue in full pursuit.

Anything less than that and I wouldn't pitch Kevin Millwood again this season. Would you?

After pitching like an All-Star the first half, Millwood's now at 10-10 with a 3.94 ERA. I would take that ERA any time in Arlington but, at 35 next season, do you think he has another number like that in him?

If Millwood makes it to 180 innings, the Rangers are on the hook for $12 million for Millwood in 2010. If he's a free agent, Texas could sign him for half of that. Probably even less unless the economy makes a shocking full recovery in the next few months.

Could the Rangers really sign him for "half of that?" Maybe not if he believes he was artificially dropped from the rotation to save $6 million. Players are people and people can be stubborn; some people would rather earn $4 million from an employer that didn't screw them than $6 million from one that did.

Which would be no big loss for the Rangers. If you can't sign Millwood for $6 million, you certainly can sign someone like Millwood for $6 million. Or less. This year his ERA is fine, but his walks are up and his strikeouts are down, and he's giving up more homers than usual. As fullcountpitch.com's Gary Armida writes, much of Millwood's success -- and that of his pitching teammates' -- can be attributed to the Rangers' vastly improved defense (and probably a spot of luck, too). The Rangers might miss Millwood's innings and his veteran leadership, but it shouldn't be real hard to replace his underlying performance.

Fortunately, the Rangers do have an excuse for sitting Millwood: in his last five starts, he's 1-4 with a 7.62 ERA, and only one of those starts was even modestly successful.

Unfortunately, it's not clear that they can sit him enough. One turn in the rotation, maybe. Or even two. But he's just 13 outs away from vesting that $12 million. I think the Rangers are just stuck.

Kevin Millwood: All-Star? Yeah, probably.

Kevin Millwood: deserving All-Star? No, probably not. As FanGraphs' R.J. Anderson notes, Millwood has been exceptionally lucky:

Name the pitchers:

Pitcher A: 172.2 IP, 17.31% K, 5.85 BB%, 10.1% HR/FB, 67.7% LOB, 5.16 ERA
Pitcher B: 112.2 IP, 14.64% K, 7.88 BB%, 10.8% HR/FB, 85.9% LOB, 2.64 ERA

Pitcher B is Kevin Millwood, benefactor of an unsustainable amount of stranded runners, thus keeping his ERA at a comfortable, and easily overrated, 2.64. Pitcher A is also Kevin Millwood, two seasons ago. The differences between the two seasons are minimal. This Millwood walks a few more, strikes out a few less, and has a vastly superior defense behind him, otherwise, they're the same pitcher -- literally and figuratively.

--snip--

If you have Millwood on your fantasy team, sell him now. There are some examples of seasons like this actually lasting through October, but don't bet on another Steve Trachsel 1996, just pull the trigger before it's too late.

I cut the part where Anderson gives some credit to the defense behind Millwood, but he dispenses that nugget and then sort of forgets about it, and I wonder if he should. He doesn't mention Millwood's batting average (allowed) on balls in play, and I wonder if he should. In 2007, Millwood gave up an astronomical .340 BABiP ... and last year it was even higher (.358!).

And this year?

.261, the lowest of his Millwood's career.

I'm sure someone's pointed this out before, but a high strand rate isn't completely about good relievers and effective clutch pitching; it's also about BABiP. If you have a low BABiP you're going to have a low BA, and a low BA is going to result in more runners being stranded. Oh, and of course the defense contributes to a low BABiP ... but not nearly enough to explain an 80- (or 100-) point drop in BABiP from one season to the next.

Millwood has been incredibly lucky this season. There's just no way around it. If he's on your fantasy team, you should trade him to someone who doesn't read FanGraphs (or SweetSpot!). In the real world, though, the Rangers are basically stuck with a guy who's going to post an ERA well above 4.00 in the second half of the season.

You want to find yourself in the SweetSpot? It's easy: Correct me, as Dave Cameron did today:

Yesterday, Rob Neyer blogged about the Rangers improved pitching. Thanks to improved run prevention, Texas finds themselves in first place in the AL West, playing better than almost anyone could have expected. However, the continuing conclusion that ERA = pitching throws Rob's analysis off a bit, because the Rangers pitching has actually been worse this year than it was last year.

As a whole, the Rangers pitching staff is averaging 3.4 BB/9, 5.3 K/9, and 1.25 HR/9 for a 5.17 FIP this season. Compare that with 3.9 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, and 1.1 HR/9 for a 4.83 FIP last season. The walks are down a bit, but so are the strikeouts, and the home runs are up, which more than offsets the drop in walk rate. Texas' pitching staff isn't doing any better this year than they did last year. They still aren't very good.

Why is their ERA lower then? Texas got on the defensive bandwagon over the off-season, and their decision to realign the team in order to improve the glovework has made them significantly better. It's the defense, not the pitching.

--snip--

By shifting the assets around to make room for Andrus, the Rangers have drastically improved their infield defense at three spots. Not surprisingly, their team-wide UZR has gone from -51.7 in 2008 to +9.5 in 2009. This is expressly manifest in the lower team ERA that Neyer noted yesterday - their 4.72 ERA is 45 points lower than their 5.17 FIP, giving them the fourth largest gap between how well they are preventing runs and how well their pitchers are actually performing.

This isn't an accident. The Rangers made a conscious decision over the winter to upgrade their defense, and it's paying dividends early on. They might not win the AL West, but they're better than most people thought, and they're headed in the right direction.

As Cameron notes, the elevation of Elvis Andrus pushed Michael Young to third base, plus Chris Davis is now the every-day first baseman, which winds up making three infield positions better than they were last year (oh, and here's Andrus making one of the defensive plays of the year).

As I noted, a significant bit of the Ranger pitching's "improvement" can be attributed to Kevin Millwood, whose ERA has dropped from 5.07 last year to 2.92 this year (granted, in just seven starts). But maybe Millwood only furthers Cameron's point, because Millwood's success has come despite a significantly lower strikeout rate, as the former power pitcher is averaging fewer than five K's per nine innings.

Keep those corrections coming!

InsideCorner's Bob Sturm sees a big change in Arlington this spring, and he likes it:

I am thoroughly amazed at some of the things we are seeing in Arlington this summer, and while my calendar reminds me that we are merely passing the "20% of the season" pole today, it is worth noting our sample size is growing by the week.

With that in mind, the stat that has always been front and center for me is the distribution of innings between your starters (generally, guys you have invested most of your resources into between dollars and assets) and your bullpen (guys you have determined are not great candidates to be starters at this time). Really good pitching staffs actually approach 70% work load being shouldered by the starters, which then leads to a number of good results in many categories. The Rangers in 2008 were at about 60%. While that 10% may not seem like much, perhaps it better explains why people like Nolan Ryan discuss "one more inning” or "one more out" from the starters. Because that 10% is the difference between the best staffs in baseball and the worst.

This morning, the Rangers starting rotation work load percentage stands at 68.5%. Phenomenal on so many levels for this staff to be able to shoulder that much work. Scott Feldman last night kept the beat going, and the bullpen remains rested and ready (Francisco news pending, of course). Their quality will be tested as the summer goes on, but the fact that there are things this far into the season that we are not sure about regarding the bullpen speaks to the improvements. In past summers in recent memory, we knew way TOO much about the Rangers' bullpen by now.

--snip--

I cannot swear specifically what Mike Maddux, Nolan Ryan, Ron Washington, and any other management and staff might be doing. I also cannot swear that a quicker tempo is really that effective. There are many things I do not understand about pitching and especially pitching in Arlington.

But whatever it is they are doing to produce these early results - KEEP IT UP.

I snipped three tables demonstrating that Ranger starters perennially throw very few innings and Ranger relievers perennially throw a great number of innings. This doesn't necessarily have to be a bad thing but (as you might guess) usually is.

What's even more relevant, though, is how well the starters are actually pitching. This year, Ranger starters have combined for a 4.53 ERA, which might not seem impressive until you see that 4.53 is sixth best in the American League. Perhaps more to the point, here's where they ranked from 2004 through 2008: 11th, 12th, 12th, 14th, 13th.

Nolan Ryan said things were going to change, and they have. Just one caveat, though: Kevin Millwood has a 2.92 ERA, and the other starters have combined for a 5.29 ERA. Yes, I know that every rotation will look worse if you excise its top performer. But we're still early enough in the season that it doesn't take much rejiggering to throw a Grand Conclusion into doubt.

So let's avoid any Grand Conclusion in the middle of May. Instead let's just notice that things seem to have improved, and hope it's more than a spring mirage (because change, for most of us, is what makes this life worth living).