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A few quick thoughts on Lance Berkman, who has a mangled-up knee and will miss at least six to eight weeks, and what this may mean for his Hall of Fame chances.

My first thought: Other than sabermetric types who dream about walks and OBP, I don't think most baseball fans think of Berkman in Hall of Fame terms and I'm sure some of you will be insulted that I'm using Berkman and Hall of Fame in the same sentence. I could be wrong about that. I believe most baseball writers probably don't think about Berkman in those terms, although I could be wrong about that as well. For example, it's pretty clear that Berkman has been regarded by the baseball writers as a great player. He's finished third, third, fifth, fifth, seventh and seventh in various MVP votes.

What does that mean? Bill James created something called "award shares." If you're a unanimous MVP winner, that's 1.0 award shares -- you collected 100 percent of the possible maximum points; if you collected 80 percent of the possible points, that's .80 award shares. And so on. Berkman has 2.0 career award shares, which doesn't sound like a lot, but is more than Ryne Sandberg, Tony Gwynn, Gary Carter, Roberto Alomar, Rod Carew, Robin Yount, Willie McCovey, Eddie Mathews, Billy Williams, Paul Molitor and many other Hall of Famers.

So I think that at least puts him in the discussion; it doesn't make him a Hall of Famer, but it's a starting point that he merits the debate.

Berkman's power and on-base skills have made him a lethal hitter. From 2001 through 2009, he hit .301/.415/.558 while averaging 32 home runs and 107 RBIs. He hit as high as .331 in those years, topped 40 home runs twice, led the NL one year with 128 RBIs, drove in 136 runs another, made the postseason three times. Those are all things Hall of Famers voters like. During those nine years, he ranked seventh in home runs, fourth in RBIs, fourth in OBP, eighth in slugging percentage, sixth in OPS and fifth in OPS+ (behind Barry Bonds, Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez). He was, clearly, one of the elite hitters in the game.

But was nine elite years enough? Hall voters, of course, require a tough-to-dissect combination of peak value and career value. After struggling in 2010 with a knee injury, Berkman bounced back with a terrific 2011, hitting .301 with 31 homers. He had a great World Series, hitting .423, driving in five runs, scoring nine. The Cardinals won it all. In 52 career postseason games, his batting line is .317/.417/.532. I'll take that, thank you.

So where does that leave us?

• A player who was one of the elite hitters of his generation.
• Ten Hall of Fame-caliber seasons, plus a great partial season in 2000 (.297/.388/.561 in 114 games) and a not-so-great 2010.
• A terrific postseason performer.
• A player who didn't win an MVP Award but fared well in the voting.

On the negative side: Not much defensive or baserunning value, a late career start (his first big year came at 25) and relatively low career totals (right now) of 359 home runs, 1,197 RBIs and 1,836 hits.

It's interesting to compare him to his one-time teammate, Jeff Bagwell, who obviously isn't in the Hall of Fame (for some reasons we all know about) but whom many of you and in the stat community believe is a no-brainer Hall of Famer:

Bagwell: .297/.408/.540
Berkman: .296/.409/.546

Bagwell did that in 2,150 games, Berkman over 1,787 games so far, so it's not exactly the same thing. Plus Bagwell had to play his early years in the Astrodome and was a superior first baseman and baserunner. Anyway, the point is they're pretty close as hitters, which many may not realize.

I thought entering the season that Berkman needed two more good seasons similar to his 2011 campaign -- get him past 400 home runs, close to 1,500 RBIs. Yes, voters love those round numbers. The knee injury wipes out much of 2012 and puts his future in doubt. Berkman alluded to having concerns about coming back. "You certainly think, if I have to get my ACL repaired, I might be done playing," he said. "And the doctor kind of said that. He's like, 'Well, you're not a young man anymore.'

Without adding to his career counting totals, this puts Berkman on the Hall of Fame bubble. As Dave Cameron wrote on FanGraphs, "Given his numbers and his peers, my guess is that Berkman ends up with guys like (Edgar) Martinez and Todd Helton -- hitters who specialized in the wrong skills."

Given those bubble candidates, voters historically favor the long careers -- Tony Perez and Eddie Murray -- over the high-peak, shorter career guys (Martinez, Larry Walker). They did vote in Jim Rice a few years ago, but he's a bit of an outlier candidate for a lot of reasons, a guy whose case became a politicized battle of the pre-steroids generation.

What do you think? Myself, it's a close call, but I think those peak years were so good I'd vote for him. Ten years as one of the very best hitters in the game? Works for me.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

Prospects are always a popular topic when Keith Law and I gather for a Baseball Today podcast, so here's what was on our minds for Tuesday!

1. Who is this Matt Adams guy on the Cardinals and what should we expect from him with Lance Berkman out?

2. What is the long-term prognosis for Rangers right-hander Neftali Feliz, and why can't Yu Darvish conquer the Mariners?

3. Aroldis Chapman is Cincy's closer, but is that really the best way to use him? Of course it isn't!

4. Our emailers want to know about the overlooked Chicago White Sox, bad managing and Independent leagues.

5. Our preview of Tuesday's schedule looks at the Diamondbacks, Angels and other matchups that matter.

So download and listen to Tuesday's fun Baseball Today podcast, and come back with us for Wednesday!

Eric Karabell and Mark Simon gathered for Monday's Baseball Today podcast. Here's what went down:

1. Justin Verlander's near no-no and Max Scherzer's 15-strikeout game topped the weekend's pitching performances. Who else had great games?

2. Aroldis Chapman named Reds closer, but does this move really make Cincinnati any better?

3. Lance Berkman is heading to the DL, so it's time to talk about Matt Adams.

4. Power rankings!

5. Ridiculous question of the week!

All that and more, including a look ahead to Monday's game. King Felix versus Yu Darvish!

News and notes from around the majors ...

First base: Injury news. The injury bug hits the Mets again as we learned David Wright suffered a fractured pinkie finger on Monday. Adam Rubin of ESPN New York reports that the Mets will determine Friday if Wright has to go on the disabled list. If necessary, Terry Collins would likely move Daniel Murphy to third base and play Justin Turner or prospect Jordany Valdespin at second. Valdespin hit .294/.333/.468 between Double-A and Triple-A in 2011. ... Brandon Phillips landed a big contract and then missed Tuesday's game with a sore hammy. He could miss three or four days. Willie Harris played second and hit leadoff. ... Nationals left fielder Michael Morse is still out indefinitely with his strained lat. He left a minor-league rehab stint, unable to throw the ball from left to shortstop. Veteran Xavier Nady is 2-for-10 in his place. ... Lance Berkman left his game in the eighth inning with a calf injury. Check tomorrow for updates, but if he's out, Matt Carpenter would play first base.

Second base: The Bard's tale. Daniel Bard pitched better than his final line of 5 IP, 8 H, 5 R indicates. He had six K's and just one walk and induced 18 swing-and-misses. Only Josh Beckett had more swings-and-misses in a game last season (20). Basically, Bard got done in by the dreaded BABIP, burned by a few groundballs that got through the infield. Red Sox fans should be encouraged by his start.

Third base: More Moore. Matt Moore made his first start on a cold day in Detroit that featured two different snow flurries. He walked five and struck out four in 6.2 innings, allowing four hits including an Austin Jackson home run in the seventh. Like Yu Darvish's first start, it would be ridiculous to make any conclusions. The kid is going to be great, it's mostly just a matter if he'll throw enough strikes to be great this year.

Home plate: Tweet of the day.

Lance Berkman on David Freese: "If you’re looking for your next $200M contract, he’s got a chance. He’s that kind of player." #STLCards

— Anthony Castrovince (@castrovince) April 11, 2012

It’s another Opening Day! Can you feel the excitement? Keith Law and I can, and we talk about the big ESPN Cardinals-Marlins game for Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast along with plenty of other stuff!

1. I set the over/under on Josh Johnson starts for 2012 at 26, and KLaw sends back his opinion. Will Marlins fans be happy or sad with his answer?

2. Do we have the defending champs or the Marlins in the postseason? All the preseason predictions are posted at ESPN.com, and we discuss our choices.

3. A pair of AL East closers hit the shelf with injuries, but there’s really no need for the Red Sox and Rays to panic. So will they panic?

4. Keith digs into his scouting bag of tricks to discuss how the Pirates handle young pitchers and how scouts judge outfield arms.

5. Stephen Strasburg, Lance Berkman and more Yankees bias are topics for our emailers.

So download and listen to Wednesday’s fun Baseball Today podcast, our first in which we preview a 2012 game in the USA! Many more to come!

I can't wait for the season to get going. You can't wait. Last October was the best we've had in years, and the offseason only fueled our baseball fever. Spring training is mercifully over. Let the games begin. Here are 100 reasons I'm pumped for the next seven months.

1. Albert Pujols in Anaheim. They call him The Machine, but Pujols had a few rusty bolts in 2011. He hit under .300 for the first time, his walk rate was down, and his extra-base-hit percentage was down. After a slow start through May (.267, nine home runs), he did hit much better after returning from his fractured forearm. He moves to a tougher division and will have to face the Rangers, A's and Mariners 19 times each -- with cavernous parks in Oakland and Seattle -- rather than the Cubs, Pirates and Astros. The pressure is on. The spotlight is bright. But machines are immune to all that, right?

2. Jim Thome's pursuit of a World Series title. He'll turn 42 in August and will play some first base until Ryan Howard returns. That's a pretty good story in itself (he hasn't played on the field since appearing in one game at first in 2008), but he's played in nine postseasons and reached two World Series without winning it all.

3. Jamie Moyer is back in the majors at age 49 and can surpass Jack Quinn as the oldest pitcher to win a game. Moyer's arsenal these days: an 80 mph fastball, a 70 mph changeup, a 65 mph curveball, a 55 mph slowball, a 20 mph Bugs Bunny ball and an 8 mph retirement community ball that bends time.

4. Justin Verlander's encore performance. Verlander threw 3,941 pitches in the regular season, the most since Livan Hernandez's 4,007 in 2005. Verlander added 360 more in the postseason. It's not necessarily a big deal -- Verlander's 2009 total is the third-highest since 2005 -- but you do wonder whether Jim Leyland will back off a little.

5. Roy Halladay's paintbrush.

6. Yu Darvish.

7. Yu Darvish's hair. Straight from Supercuts.

8. Adam Wainwright's return to the Cardinals' rotation. He was third in the 2009 NL Cy Young vote and second in 2010. He looked good this spring, pitching 18 2/3 innings and allowing just 11 hits. The strikeout rate wasn't great -- just nine K's -- but signs are positive a year after Tommy John surgery.

9. A full season of Stephen Strasburg, who was electric in his own return in September from TJ surgery in September 2010 -- his fastball averaged 95.8 mph, below the 97.3 he averaged in 2010 but still with enough velocity that it would have ranked No. 1 among starting pitchers. The big question for his season: How much the Nationals will limit his innings?

10. Jose Canseco's tweets.

11. Clayton Kershaw's slider. His fastball isn't too shabby, either. By the way, here's what Kershaw does in the offseason to stay in shape and get ready for the season.

12. Verlander, Halladay, Kershaw: three of the amazing generation of pitchers we get to enjoy. Maybe Darvish and Strasburg will join them. In 2011, 14 pitchers pitched at least 200 innings with an ERA of 3.00 or less. The last time we had even 10 such pitchers in one season was 1997, with 11. The last season with more than 14 was 1992, with 20. Yes, steroids are a small part of that. A small part. The best pitchers today are throwing harder and with meaner breaking stuff than we've ever seen. Guys like Kershaw and Halladay are relentless in their workout routines. It's not a lot of fun to be a hitter these days.

13. Well, Jose Bautista has a lot of fun.

14. A new generation of young hitters like Giancarlo Stanton, Eric Hosmer, Brett Lawrie, Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Starlin Castro and Jesus Montero. All will play their age-22 seasons in 2012.

15. Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez.

16. Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.

17. Will Cabrera win his first MVP award? He's finished fifth in the voting three times, fourth once and second once. Two things that could prevent him from winning:

A. Austin Jackson's on-base percentage. Cabrera hit .388 with runners in scoring position in 2011 but drove in "just" 105 runs.
B. Fielder. Batting behind Cabrera and his .400-plus OBP will give Fielder more RBI opportunities. If he ends up driving in 15 to 20 more runs than Cabrera, they could split votes.

Five other all-time greats who have never won an MVP award: Derek Jeter, Eddie Murray, Mike Piazza, Al Kaline, Manny Ramirez.

18. Cabrera playing third base. With Fielder at first base, the Tigers could have the worst first baseman and worst third baseman in baseball. (And, please, don't defend Fielder's defensive prowess at first base. He's better than Adam Dunn, I suppose ... but Dunn is a DH.)

19. Defensive runs saved!

Your leaders by position in 2011:

C -- Matt Wieters
1B -- Adrian Gonzalez
2B -- Ben Zobrist
3B -- Evan Longoria
SS -- Brendan Ryan
LF -- Brett Gardner
CF -- Austin Jackson
RF -- Jason Heyward

20. The Sandman.

21. The fans in Milwaukee. The Brewers drew a franchise-record 3.071 million fans in 2011. Depressed over losing Fielder? Hardly. They'll surpass that in 2012.

(Read full post)

"Baseball Tonight" (airing at 3:30 p.m. ET) will be taking a closer look this week at players in the spotlight for 2011, asking the question "What's next?" for that player. Share your thoughts in the comments section below.

Lance Berkman went from a player whose career was thought to be on the verge of ending to a pivotal player on a World Series-winning team.

Berkman was one of baseball’s most prodigious mashers in his prime, posting an average season of a .301 batting average, 32 home runs and 107 RBIs from 2001 to 2009. After falling in 2010, he nearly matched that average in 2011, hitting .301 with 31 home runs and 94 RBIs.

Berkman re-found his power stroke from the left side, particularly when a pitcher would make a mistake, as noted in the chart on the right and the heat maps below. He averaged a home run every 25 at-bats versus right-handed pitching in 2010, one every 14 at-bats in 2011.

The focus figures to increase on Berkman in 2012 with the departure of Albert Pujols from the St. Louis lineup.

The question is: Can he maintain this sort of success for another year?


What will Berkman do in 2012? Discuss and debate below.

Are first basemen doing more to put runs on the board today than they did 10 years ago? How about 25 years ago? How do you make broad comparisons like this?

With any question like this you can get hung up on the differences between eras. Run-scoring environments are going to bounce around as a matter of course, and that’s before you get into the bump of the so-called "Steroids Era." If you were a fan just getting started in the late ’90s, chances are you might wind up with an inflated sense of what player performance is supposed to look like.

Happily, you can compare player performance within the context of their own season. Clay Davenport, an old colleague from Baseball Prospectus, cranks this data for every season. We can get a snapshot of where performance has gone at each position by using his Equivalent Average, or EqA. Equivalent Average isn’t the only stat you can employ; Clay scales production to batting average, with .260 defined as average.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at performances from the eight major positions over the past 25 years. We’ll start with the premium offensive positions, the four corners, from 1987 to the present:



Keep in mind, .260 is average for every season, so the year-to-year variations are going to refer back to that baseline. We can already draw a few broad conclusions -- some of which are pretty much accepted wisdom, but some prove slightly surprising.

Runs come from first base. This might seem obvious, but that’s especially the case now. It hasn’t always been that way. As you can see from the chart, left and right fielders have sometimes approached the first basemen, but that usually coincides with bad years for first basemen. But these days, first base is the game’s premium offense position.

If you look back further, that picture gets a lot more complicated. During the ’70s, first, right and left were equally important offensive positions, and in 1982 the four corners and center field were separated by just eight points. That changed in the late ’80s, as the standard for production at first base now winds up north of a .280 EqA year after year.

This higher standard has survived two expansions and the steroid era. This year Mark Teixeira was below average despite hitting 39 homers. Admittedly, it was a down year for him: he posted a .281 EqA compared to an MLB average of .283. In contrast, in 1991 Carlos Quintana defined adequacy at first -- if you’re from outside Boston and have forgotten him entirely, it’s probably just as well, but he was a nice OBP guy without much power.

What does that mean today? Well, this goes a little bit towards what Dave Schoenfield was writing about as far as Albert Pujols ranking as the top player in the game for so long. It also means that while teams like the Rangers have been leaving runs on the table by playing Mitch Moreland, you can understand why the Red Sox traded for Adrian Gonzalez while the Angels landed Pujols. Credit the Rays for keeping up with the other big-money contenders by bringing Carlos Pena back (.292 last year).

Right field is where outfield stars play. This might take us back to the days of Babe Ruth or Hank Aaron as opposed to Ted Williams or Barry Bonds. While the averages for the two positions have balanced out over time, right field is the much stronger position these days. Some of that has is because of a matter of preference: Lance Berkman played right for the Cardinals not because he’s a good right fielder, but because he’d help them score a ton of runs. Jose Bautista might be a fantasy league’s perfect third baseman, but the Blue Jays keep bumping him back to the outfield. Add in breakthrough seasons for Mike Stanton and Matt Joyce and even nice bounce-backs from Justin Upton and Jeff Francoeur, and you wind up with the game’s reigning premium outfield slot.

Left field is down. Way down. As you can see, the last 25 years have been pretty up and down for the left-side corners. The average for left fielders in the era of division play is .277, but they haven’t reached that mark since 2004.

The sad state of left-field offensive production has already been debated plenty among statheads. Is it an affordable risk on offense at a time when teams are more defense-conscious than ever before? Or is it a case of reaping what you sow when you make a point putting guys like Juan Pierre in your everyday lineup? It might reflect an industry-wide choice to employ better defenders at the position, sacrificing some offense. But in other ways it might also reflect how left field has become almost a garbage-time position for teams that stow their backup center fielder or a sputtering veteran holdover. Teams now lack the roster space to platoon or mix and match on offense the way that they could before the seven-man bullpen became fashionable.

Whatever your take, offensive production from left fielders is down at its lowest point in 25 years, matching 1997 for punchlessness with a .268 EqA. That isn’t a coincidence; much like the present, 1997 featured a lot of transition in left fields around the majors, with guys like Gregg Jefferies, Wil Cordero and B.J. Surhoff playing their first full seasons in the outfield. Moises Alou got hurt (again), Bernard Gilkey’s career started imploding, and Greg Vaughn and Ron Gant had the worst years of their careers.

Fast-forward to the present, and you find your share of setback seasons (Carl Crawford and Delmon Young). You also see a lot of flat-out awful from self-inflicted bad ideas, like Raul Ibanez in the last year of his contract while Vernon Wells, Carlos Lee and Alfonso Soriano marked time on huge deals that won’t go away soon enough.

Against that, you’ve got the guys we might call sops to the speed-and-defense crowd, or what I think of as the next-gen Dave Collins solutions: Brett Gardner, Jose Tabata, Michael Brantley, Sam Fuld, Pierre and more. They range from useful OBP sources to significantly less so, but not one of them is going to be Tim Raines, let alone Crawford. Last year Gerardo Parra had the best season among this group (.280 EqA); he also stands to lose playing time in 2012 to Jason Kubel, a guy who’s a much more conventional corner-outfield selection.

Third Base is hurting. If you’re a student of baseball history, you already know that back in the Deadball Era second base was more of a high-offense position than the hot corner. That changed in the 1920s with the introduction of the livelier ball, but every once in a while you get a year where you’ve got a great group of second baseman and a weak crew of third-base vets. That was very much the case in the late ’80 and early ’90s (thanks in part to guys like Roberto Alomar, Ryne Sandberg, Robby Thompson, Lou Whitaker and Julio Franco), but after the Marlins-Rockies expansion in ’93 second base fell back again. But now we’re at this same point again, where third base has slipped behind second base, if only barely (.262 EqA to .261).

With the declining standards reflected by Scott Rolen getting named to an All-Star team despite a lousy season, finding merely competent options for third base isn’t as easy as it sounds. Alex Rodriguez and Chipper Jones certainly aren’t getting any younger.

You can hope this will change for the better with the arrivals of touted prospects like Brett Lawrie, Mike Moustakas and Lonnie Chisenhall, but we’ve also seen a few major third-base prospect flops: Pedro Alvarez or Andy LaRoche, anyone? That’s why journeymen like Casey Blake, Ryan Roberts or Jack Hannahan get opportunities to stick around.

If anything, the state of third base these days speaks volumes about the Tigers' decision to move Miguel Cabrera across to the diamond after signing Prince Fielder. As Mark Simon notes, the defensive penalty might be steep, but reviewing this data suggests that there's a major competitive advantage to be gained relative to the competition, because they're making room for two superstar bats in the lineup: Cabrera with his career .315 EqA, and Fielder with his .313. The Cardinals just ran up a flag after risking their defense at the corners with Berkman in right, so you can't blame the Tigers for trying to do likewise.

Tomorrow, we’ll look at the up-the-middle positions. If you’re one of those people who think finding good help at shortstop or catcher is hard to find these days, you might have a surprise to look forward to.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

ST. LOUIS -- St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Allen Craig had a pretty good idea the final out of the World Series might be coming toward the left side of the diamond. He remembers the buzz in the stadium as David Murphy was up to bat. As the ball came his way, he was thinking, this could be it, the final out, World Series champions.

As grandfathers and grandmothers tell their story each will have their own memories, but when the man who caught the final out tells how it happened he will not have the ball to show for it.

After the game Craig heard that Tony La Russa was interested in the ball. Once the celebration on the field was over, La Russa pulled the team into the weight room and told them he was retiring.

During that meeting, Craig said he was thinking, "I'm not going to be the guy who keeps the ball. That’s just not going to happen."

That night he handed it to La Russa. For Craig, the thrill and memory of catching the final out of the World Series was enough. "That’s all I need," he said.

Great baseball stories usually come from the unexpected. Craig’s act of giving the ball to La Russa sums up the offseason for the Cardinals: The thrills and championship of 2011, first baseman Albert Pujols, La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan are now just a memory.

* * * *

How do the Cardinals move forward? Some teams have to fill holes; without Pujols, the Cardinals have to fill a crater.

"He’s a great player, he’s a good friend," Matt Holliday said of losing Pujols. "I’m disappointed he’s not going to be here, but I think as players we understand that it was a possibility."

Lance Berkman said he was surprised Pujols ended up signing with the Angels. "Certainly if you asked me at this time last year I would have said, 'Hey, there’s absolutely no way he’s going to go anywhere but be here his entire career.' It’s hard to imagine Albert playing for anyone else."

Berkman knows it's just part of the business of baseball. "I thought I was always going to be in Houston and here I am a happy member of the St. Louis Cardinals," he said. "So, you can’t ever tell in this day and age."

Players move on, managers and coaches move on, the front office changes. Still, for any team in baseball there’s a need for a "face of the franchise."

Adam Wainwright appreciates his name being mentioned in that picture and joked, "You’d think they’d pick a prettier face."

For Wainwright, if he’s going to be the leader of the Cardinals he wants it to happen naturally and if it doesn’t, "so be it."

Holliday’s career .315/.388/.541 line is impressive and he now has the longest and highest-value contract on the team. Maybe he is the new face of the franchise.

"I’m willing to do whatever, whatever it takes," Holliday said. "I’ve played on teams that didn’t have Albert before. I’ve batted third before. I’ve played in a World Series before. I’m available for whatever is asked of me."

Berkman joked about Holliday or himself being the face of the franchise, "We were both wondering if it would be too early to ask for No. 5."

With Berkman moving to first base, Carlos Beltran was signed to help replace Pujols' production at the plate.

"I know Pujols is a hole maybe no one can fill," Beltran said. "But with myself, with Berkman, with Holliday, I think there are three guys there that can put juice in the middle of the order."

Staff leader Chris Carpenter is mostly worried about what he does best: Focusing on Yadier Molina's glove. "My roles never change even with him (Pujols) here," Carpenter said. "We work together trying to control the things we need to control."

* * * *

Maybe the role of a leader is overrated. After all, if a team is winning, does it matter if there’s a strong presence in the clubhouse?

"It’s definitely important to have strong leadership on a team," Craig said. "Starting with the manager. Obviously Tony is gone but the main reason why they hired Mike Matheny is that he is just a natural leader being a catcher. All you hear about is how he is a respected guy, he knows the game, and he’s a great leader."

Carpenter, who pitched to Matheny while he was still catching, told a story about his new manager.

"I’ll never forget there was a game, I was going out and I wasn’t throwing the ball real well, my stuff wasn’t real good," Carpenter recalled. "I was giving up some hits, some runs and he came out and was like, 'Listen, I know you don’t have your best stuff.' Just follow me, let’s concentrate on getting the ball down and just throw what I put down there."

The next thing Carpenter knew it was seven innings later. "I gave up a couple of runs but I got through it and gave my team a chance to win."

Carpenter thinks Molina will step up off the field. "Yadier is going to have a huge presence in that clubhouse this year with taking over a role that he might not have been 100 percent used to," Carpenter said. "But I think he’s going to evolve into that leader that we need."

Relief pitcher Mitchell Boggs says Molina gives "every single guy that comes out of the bullpen or starts a lot of confidence." Kyle Lohse echoed those thoughts, saying, "There are so many different things he does. Whether it’s the studying of the hitters to being able to stay a step ahead of them, he does all that so well. He’s very smart back there."

* * * *

On the last day of the Cardinals Winter Warm-Up, the annual event to benefit the Cardinals Care charity, there was a noticeable influx of kids in the crowd, a buzz of excitement.

Peggy Phillips, who has volunteered for the Winter Warm-Up for 16 years, explained why: "It’s David Freese’s day," Phillips said. "It was always crowded on Albert Pujols’ day."

Freese knows there’s more pressure on him now with all the attention he is receiving, but his role as hometown hero hasn’t changed what’s most important to him and what he hopes to bring to the Cardinals organization.

"I think the kids are the best part about this," Freese said of his busy offseason. "As hectic as it is, as crazy as everything gets, every time you see the excitement of a kid, it makes you realize it’s all worth it."

It seems everyone on the team is ready and willing to step up and be a leader. It’s fitting, isn’t it? Call it Cardinal luck. Or maybe it's just having the right guys in place at the right time. But whatever it's called, one thing is certain: The only way to survive the loss of a player like Pujols and a manager like La Russa is to fill the void with an entire team.

"We’ve got lots of really good older players that are good at leading people," Holliday said. "I think our clubhouse will be fine."

You might have thought we were about to run out of reasons to weep for the Cardinals, World Series win or no. After all, Jeff Luhnow scrammed to Houston to reboot the Astros after their latest failure to launch, and Allen Craig's going to miss the month of April. And worst of all, Albert Pujols is now an Angeleno of Anaheim, while manager Tony La Russa has left the dugout and let the world knows he's ready to make a trip to Cooperstown in 2014.

But general manager John Mozeliak decided to sign Carlos Beltran, and the expectation is that he'll bat second in the Cards' 2012 lineup. As much as the faces and names may have changed, one of the reliably cool features of La Russa's lineup construction on so many contenders seems likely to continue on new skipper Mike Matheny's watch.

Historically, you know what some managers will do in the number two slot in a lineup: Deposit some bat-control bunting fiend to give himself something to do if the leadoff man gets aboard. A guy like Ted Sizemore could be held up as a paragon of second-slot virtue for hitting .255/.320/.321 as an everyday player during the '70s.

But from early on, La Russa didn't stick with that kind of convention, even when he had light-hitting middle infielders you might typecast for this kind of offensive role. Just look at the most frequently used hitters in the second slot from his best teams in terms of season records:

1983 White Sox: Carlton Fisk (.289/.355/.518). As a 35-year-old everyday catcher, Pudge was about as unconventional a selection to bat second as you could imagine, but this also marked the first time La Russa really went down this road on his lineup cards. Pudge tied a career high with 26 homers, a campaign that also kicked off his career's second wind, ultimately propelling him to the games-caught record (subsequently broken by Ivan Rodriguez in 2009).

1988-1990 Athletics: In '88, La Russa used Dave Henderson almost half the time in the second slot, and Hendu broke through to enjoy the best year of his career, hitting .304/.363/.525. In '89, the A's won their World Series with Henderson splitting time batting second with Carney Lansford; while Lansford had become a singles hitter at that point in his career, he narrowly lost the '89 batting title to Kirby Puckett. In '90, La Russa simply favored Lansford.

2004-2006 Cardinals: La Russa mixed and matched in all three years, but the three men he used the most frequently in the two-hole on the 2004-2005 teams were Larry Walker, Edgar Renteria and Jim Edmonds, or guys who could do real damage and were anything but slappy. On the still-stunning 2006 World Series winner, La Russa favored Chris Duncan and John Rodriguez more often than anyone, a pair of slow outfielders with power.

2011 Cardinals: The men La Russa used most often were Jon Jay, Colby Rasmus, Craig and David Freese, all of whom bring some thunder in their lumber.

If you remember Matheny's playing days, you'll remember that he caught for one of those teams -- the 2004 Cardinals -- so as much as you might be mad over how he hasn't managed in the majors, you might be willing to concede that beyond seeing good things done in the dugout when he was an active player, he might have picked up on the advantages of not getting too cute with in-game tactics.

Now obviously, having Carlos Beltran is automatically a good thing. Getting him for two years at $26 million is perhaps even better, because paying a little bit more per season for fewer years spares the Cardinals from paying for an age-37 season or later player, when he may not play a key role on a contender. But having Beltran batting second, with Rafael Furcal in front of him and Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday due up? That's just plain fun, the stuff of La Russian dreams and NL Central nightmares.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

ST. LOUIS -- You fight through the monotony of fielding practice in spring training. The sore elbows, the back pain, the starts when you leave your fastball in the bullpen, and maybe a surgery or two at some point in your career.

Chris Carpenter missed an entire season with shoulder surgery. He missed another season after injuring his elbow on Opening Day and undergoing Tommy John surgery. When the St. Louis Cardinals reached the World Series in 2004, he couldn’t pitch due to nerve problem in his right biceps.

A couple days ago, Tony La Russa wasn’t sure if Carpenter would be able to pitch Game 7. For one thing, the Cardinals had to win Game 6. La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan didn’t officially decide to go with Carpenter until Friday, going with their staff ace on three days’ rest.

There was a time, of course, when that wouldn’t have been a big deal. Christy Mathewson once tossed three shutouts in the World Series over a six-day span. Sandy Koufax pitched a three-hit shutout in 1965 on two days’ rest. Jack Morris’ famous 10-inning shutout in 1991 came on three days’ rest.

But Carpenter had only done that once before in his career -- three weeks ago, in Game 2 of the Division Series against the Philadelphia Phillies. He lasted three innings. It wasn’t pretty. He said he’d learned a few things from that experience. La Russa made the call: Go with the big guy, the 6-foot-6, 36-year-old veteran from New Hampshire with a scruffy growth of beard, and on this day, in the biggest game of his career, a toolbox full of pitches.

The St. Louis Cardinals beat the Texas Rangers 6-2 in a Game 7 of the World Series that couldn’t match the impossible drama and excitement of Game 6. The Rangers played hard, but their pitching staff simply ran out of gas, exemplified by the Cardinals’ fifth inning, when they scored two runs without getting the ball out of the infield -- without even getting a hit. Rangers pitchers walked three batters and hit two more, turning a 3-2 game into a 5-2 deficit. Critics will put a lot of blame on manager Ron Washington for the Rangers’ defeat, and deservedly so, but in the end the Rangers simply couldn’t throw enough strikes and couldn’t get the final out they needed in Game 6.

On this night, however, the Cardinals made the big plays: David Freese with another clutch hit, a two-out stinging double into the gap in left-center to score two runs in the first (giving the World Series MVP a postseason record 21 RBIs); Allen Craig with a go-ahead home run in the third, fighting back from a 1-2 count to hit a 3-2 Matt Harrison fastball into the St. Louis bullpen in right-center; Craig later robbing Nelson Cruz of a home run.

But the key was Carpenter. "Dave had a real heart-to-heart with him to gauge just how ready he was to pitch just physically, not mentally, but physically," La Russa said before the game. He then added, "The last thing is ... what he means to our club. I think our guys feel better about him starting than anybody."

Carpenter pitched into the seventh and became the first pitcher to win two do-or-die games in one postseason, after also winning Game 5 of the division series. No, it won't quite go down alongside Mathewson and Koufax and Morris, but it was a terrific effort, especially since he almost didn’t get out of the first inning. The first four batters all reached base as Carpenter fell behind each hitter. But Ian Kinsler slipped while taking an aggressive secondary lead and Yadier Molina picked him off. The play proved enormously costly when Elvis Andrus walked and Josh Hamilton and Michael Young doubled to right field. Carpenter struck out Adrian Beltre and got Cruz to ground, maybe the two key at-bats of the game.

From there, the St. Louis' bullpen mowed down the Rangers, Busch Stadium getting louder and louder with each out, erupting when Arthur Rhodes retired Yorvit Torrealba and Octavio Dotel struck out Kinsler, raising the decibel level when Lance Lynn fanned Beltre to end the eighth, the anticipation building into a loud chant of "Let's Go Cards!" in the ninth and the crowd releasing into a deafening explosion of joy as Jason Motte recorded the final out on a fly ball to left field.

Maybe Game 7 was over as soon Freese hit his home run onto the grass in Game 6. Many people said it was. I didn't think that was the case; I thought the Rangers had a chance. You make your own breaks, but the Rangers sure didn't catch any: Craig steps in for the injured Matt Holliday and has a great game; that 3-2 pitch to Molina with the bases loaded in the fifth could have been called a strike and changed the momentum of the game.

But give credit to Chris Carpenter and the St. Louis Cardinals, a team that could have given up in early September. A team that made the playoffs on the final day of the regular season, that needed to beat Roy Halladay just to reach the National League Championship Series, that was down to its final strike twice in Game 6, and figured out how to win the World Series. A worthy champion and one to be remembered.

* * * *

Of course, this World Series will also be remembered for the many questionable decisions by Washington, moves that led to the Rangers suffering one of the most painful defeats in World Series history. Before we get to that, keep this in mind: Rangers pitchers walked 41 batters, a World Series record worst. They walked six more in Game 7. Too many walks, too many walks.

• Washington didn't help matters by issuing another ill-timed intentional walk. I said it all series long: the intentional walks were going to come back to haunt the Rangers. A free pass to Lance Berkman hurt the Rangers in Game 6. In Game 7, Washington walked Freese with runners on second and third, which was followed by Scott Feldman's walk to Molina and then C.J. Wilson hitting Rafael Furcal to force in another run.
• I didn't necessarily have a problem with using Feldman to start the fifth. The best option might have been Mike Adams, but Washington hasn't shown a lot of confidence in Adams' ability to go more than three outs. He was hoping Feldman could get him a couple innings. (Needless to say, using Alexi Ogando would have been a likely disaster).
• Washington's decision to have Andrus bunt in the top of the fifth after Kinsler's leadoff single was odd. Down by one on the road, top of the order, giving up an out? Play for one, get none. Carpenter got Hamilton to pop out to third on a 3-1 fastball -- Freese made a nice catch as he leaned over the dugout railing and stumbled to the ground -- and struck out Young on a 1-2 cut fastball.
• In the bottom of the fourth, St. Louis up 3-2, Molina and Furcal singled with one out, bringing up Skip Schumaker and Carpenter. Washington had Feldman warming up, but it made sense to leave in Harrison at that point since Schumaker is a career .210 hitter against left-handers. Schumaker grounded out to first to move up the runners, leaving La Russa with a choice: Hit for Carpenter? There were calls on Twitter to do so. At that point he’d thrown 63 pitches, 34 for strikes, but had retired 11 of the previous 14 Rangers hitters. I thought it was too early remove Carpenter, who had settled down, and especially considering La Russa's own bullpen didn't have a lot of pitches left in it.
• In the seventh inning, Albert Pujols came up for maybe the final at-bat of his Cardinals career. Oddly, there was no chant, no standing ovation, just a bunch of flashes going off as he struck out. The crowd did stand and applaud as he walked back to the dugout after striking out.

Well, that was an interesting Game 6, right? Hopefully the fun continues in Game 7. Meanwhile, Mark Simon and I tried to put into words what we saw on Thursday night, and here it is in Friday’s Baseball Today podcast!

1. Was that the greatest World Series game you ever saw? We try to put things in perspective.

2. There were certainly heroes (David Freese, Lance Berkman) and goats (Ron Washington). Focus on the positive all you want but there’s also no avoiding the negative.

3. We talk injuries to not only Nelson Cruz and Mike Napoli, but what happened to Freese after his game-winner looked like it hurt, potential Series MVPs (Napoli or a Cardinal?) and debate the word resilience and its place in sport.

4. Matt Harrison versus Chris Carpenter really doesn’t seem to be a fair fight, but as we discuss historical facts with Game 7 we also wonder about the confidence level of that Texas bullpen.

5. How does one write a script that has the Rangers winning Game 7? Honestly, it’s not so easy.

Bottom line: baseball is awesome. Enjoy Friday’s Baseball Today podcast, watch Game 7 (and listen on ESPN Radio!) and tune in Monday as we sum it all up one last time.

Win Probability Added is a statistic that doesn't necessarily tell us who had the greatest game, but tells us who had the most timely game. It uses historical play-by-play data to determine the value of each play based on the score, inning and situation, and calculates how the odds of winning or losing the game changed based on that play. So a game-tying home run in the bottom of the ninth is worth more than a home run in a 10-2 blowout.

Well ... David Freese had the single highest WPA in World Series history in Game 6. But to tell you what kind of game it was, teammate Lance Berkman had the third-highest. Here are the top 10, from Baseball-Reference.com:

1. David Freese, Cardinals, Game 6, 2011 (.969 WPA): Two-out, two-run triple in the bottom of the ninth, game-winning home run in the 11th. Not a bad day at the balllpark.

2. Kirk Gibson, Dodgers, Game 1, 1988 (.870): Two outs, bottom of the ninth, down by one, runner on base, Dennis Eckersley throws a backdoor slider ...

3. Lance Berkman, Cardinals, Game 6, 2011 (.832): Because the Cardinals staged two dramatic, two-out comebacks, Berkman's heroics also score high. He had a key walk in the ninth, tied it in the 10th with his two-out single and also hit a two-run homer in the first.

4. Charlie Keller, Yankees, Game 4, 1941 (.826): This is the famous game in which Mickey Owen dropped the third strike, leading to the Yankees scoring four runs in the ninth to win 7-4. Keller hit a two-out, two-run go-ahead double in the ninth, and also had an RBI single in the first during a 4-for-5 game.

5. Cookie Lavagetto, Dodgers, Game 4, 1947 (.822): Lavagetto's pinch-hit two-out, two-run double in the bottom of the ninth broke up Bill Bevens' no-hit bid and gave Brooklyn a 3-2 victory.

6. Stan Hack, Cubs, Game 6, 1945 (.806): The Cubs' leadoff hitter, Hack went 4-for-5 with two walks and three RBIs in a 12-inning 8-7 victory, including the winning double with two outs.

7. Devon White, Blue Jays, Game 4, 1993: Toronto scored six runs in the eighth to win a wild 15-14 game. White's two-out, two-run triple off Mitch Williams knocked in the go-ahead runs. He finished 3-for-5 with a walk, two runs and four RBIs.

8. Ed Sprague, Blue Jays, Game 2, 1992: His two-run pinch-hit home run off Jeff Reardon in the top of the ninth gave Toronto a 5-4 victory.

9. Terry Pendleton, Cardinals, Game 2, 1985: Trailing 2-0 entering the ninth, the Cards scored one run and loaded the bases with two outs against Charlie Leibrandt. Pendleton cleared the bases with a double down the left-field line.

10. Hal Smith, Pirates, Game 7, 1960: Smith's three-run home run in the bottom of the eighth with two outs gave the Pirates a 9-7 lead. The Yankees tied it in the top of the ninth, setting the stage for Bill Mazeroski's game-winner.

ST. LOUIS -- At the end of "Ball Four," the greatest book about baseball ever written, pitcher/author Jim Bouton writes, "You spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around all the time."

This sport brings the greatest of joys and then crushes you with pain. It increases its grip on you with game-ending home runs and division titles and playoff victories and rally squirrels. And when the defeats come, it's too late to turn back; you're already in, unable to escape.

Game 6 was a roller coaster for both teams, a laughable parade of Little League errors and miscues, followed by dramatic home runs, a ninth-inning rally, a monumental blast by Josh Hamilton in extra innings, another rally by the Cardinals and finally a David Freese home run into the grass in dead center field that ended this game -- we say game, but it seemed so much more consequential than a mere game -- and sent Busch Stadium into an eruption of hugs, high-fives, tears of happiness and professional athletes jumping up and down at home plate like 8-year-olds being treated to ice cream.

In the end, the scoreboard reads: St. Louis Cardinals 10, Texas Rangers 9, in 11 innings. That, of course, hardly tells the story of the exciting, unpredictable and at times unfathomable Game 6 of the World Series, one that will be relived and replayed, analyzed and scrutinized, one that will go down as one of the more remarkable World Series games ever played. Some day, somebody might have to write a book about this one.

So in this season of comebacks and collapses, of the best postseason baseball has witnessed in years, we get a Game 7. The Cardinals, down to their final strike in the ninth inning, down to their final strike in the 10th inning, kept fighting and fighting and fighting, somehow keeping this baseball season going a little longer when Freese became just the fifth player to hit a walk-off home run in Game 6 or 7 of the World Series. "Growing up or whatever, and you see stuff like that happen, those become memories," Freese said. "You know, if it's going to be replayed over and over again, I don't know, but it's really cool to be a part of this and to force a Game 7."

The Rangers, one strike away in the ninth inning, one strike away in the 10th inning, will have to regroup and mentally re-energize for one more game. Ron Washington couldn't say much, other than, "It just wasn't to happen tonight."

No, it didn't happen on this night for the Rangers, so, yes, we'll get at least nine more innings. And, yes, baseball, we are in your grip.

* * * *

Where to begin? With Freese, of course. He hit the two-strike, two-run triple in the ninth inning off Neftali Feliz, a ball lined off the wall in right field, a tough play but one that Nelson Cruz could have made. He was playing deep -- you play "no-doubles" defense at the point of game -- but drifted back too slowly and the ball flew inches over his outstretched glove.

In the 11th, the Rangers brought in Mark Lowe, their eighth pitcher of the night, and not the guy you'd expect to be on the mound with the World Series on the line. Freese led off the inning and crushed a 3-2 changeup to center. "You know, I felt like I was part of a circus out there, bouncing balls off the top of my hat a little bit," Freese said of the Cardinals' three errors, including one by him. "But, man, I just wanted an opportunity -- we tied that up, we had some good ABs and we tied it up and just kept battling. That defines our team, that game."

Ron Washington had elected to pinch-hit for Scott Feldman with Esteban German in the top half of the inning with a runner on first and two out. You can't fault Washington for that, but it was a low-percentage opportunity to score a run. The difference in ability between Feldman and the rarely used Lowe is sizable; he may have been better off letting Feldman bat, hope to keep the game tied, and play for the 12th inning.

Other notes:

[+] Enlarge
Ezra Shaw/Getty ImagesAlexi Ogando reacts after walking Yadier Molina with the bases loaded in the sixth inning.
• In the end, the wildness of Alexi Ogando and Feliz finally came back to haunt the Rangers. The worst decision of the game was Washington bringing in Ogando in the sixth inning with the bases loaded. Ogando had been terrible in this series, allowing 12 baserunners in just two innings. I wrote earlier that Game 6 of the World Series was no time to be loyal; Washington remained loyal to Ogando, believing in him as his sixth- and seventh-inning guy. But after a long season, he's clearly gassed and never should have been in there. He walked in the tying run and only escaped further damage because Mike Napoli picked Matt Holliday off third base. (And Derek Holland had to be brought in to escape the inning.)
  
  As for Feliz, his control has been shaky all postseason. He had a chance to close out a 7-5 lead in the ninth inning, but gave up a double to Albert Pujols and then walked Lance Berkman, setting the stage for Freese. The Rangers had gone 5-2 in the postseason when walking five or more batters; that's just not sustainable. When doing that in the regular season, they went 7-19. They walked seven batters in Game 6.
• Berkman quietly had one of the great individual performances in a World Series game: 3-for-5, four runs, three RBIs, a two-run home run, a big walk in the ninth, a game-tying single with two outs in the 10th, just the the fourth game game-tying hit in World Series history in the ninth or later when a team was one out from elimination (Freese's triple was the third; the others were the Braves' Otis Nixon in 1992 and the Giants' Josh Devore in 1911). "I actually felt pretty good (there)," Berkman said, "because I figured I was in a no-lose situation. If you don't come through right there, it's only one at-bat and it's over with, and they might talk about it for a couple days, but it's not that big a deal. If you come through, it's the greatest, and plus you've built a little bank account of being able to come through, so that if I don't come through tomorrow I can be like, 'Well, I came through in Game 6, what do you want from me?'"
• Should Washington have left in Feliz to start the 10th? He’d thrown 22 pitches in the ninth, while the Cardinals had the bottom of their order up -- and the pitcher due up third, with no position players left to hit. (Could you imagine if the World Series had ended with a pitcher hitting?) But with lefties Daniel Descalso and Jon Jay up, Washington brought in veteran lefty Darren Oliver. Can’t really fault him too much for that one; it just didn’t work out.
• Washington also elected to walk Pujols in the 10th inning -- when he was the winning run. Instead of having Feldman go righty-on-righty, he faced Berkman, who hit a soft single into center to tie the game. What have we been saying? You're playing with fire with all those intentional walks and Washington finally got burned. Yes, it's Albert Pujols, but Berkman isn't exactly Mario Mendoza.
• Napoli once again came up big at the plate -- his RBI single in the fourth inning gave him 10 for the series, only the sixth player in World Series history to drive in that many in one Fall Classic. His pickoff of Holliday looked like it would end up being the key defensive play of the 2011 season.
• You can't fault Washington for using Holland for two innings, but since he pitched two innings and threw 23 pitches, his availability as a long reliever for Game 7 is now in question. If Game 7 starter Matt Harrison struggles early, that likely makes C.J. Wilson the long man out of the pen for the Rangers.
• OK, if you watched this game, you know it won't be appearing on any instructional videos. Freese dropped a routine pop fly that any fifth-grader could catch, Holliday dropped an easy fly ball in left field, appearing to yell "You take it" to Rafael Furcal, but realizing too late that Furcal was in a bad position. Both errors led to unearned runs. Two Michael Young errors at first base also led two unearned runs on the Texas ledger.
• Great cat-and-mouse game in the fifth. Freese's error was followed by Young's RBI double. With Young on third and two out, Napoli was walked. Washington sent in David Murphy to hit for Craig Gentry -- and got Holland up in the pen, hoping it might force La Russa to pitch to Murphy. La Russa didn’t bite; Murphy was pitched around and Washington let Lewis hit (and strike out to leave the bases loaded).
• For what it's worth, the three most recent games that involved crushing defeats in Game 6 to keep the World Series alive were the Cardinals to the Royals in 1985, the Red Sox to the Mets in 1986 and the Giants to the Angels in 2002. All three teams lost Game 7. Also, the home team has won the past eight Game 7s. It won't be easy for the Rangers.

I’m anticipating the most exciting World Series we’ve seen in years, hopefully the first seven-game showdown since 2002. We have two explosive offenses, unpredictable starting rotations, potentially dominant bullpens, Albert Pujols, Babe Cruz, mad scientist Tony La Russa, “Dancing With the Stars” aspirant Ron Washington, Matt Holliday, Josh Hamilton, one third baseman who just hit .545 in the National League Championship Series, another who had a three-homer game earlier in the playoffs.

What’s not to like about this matchup? One franchise is playing in its 18th World Series and attempting to complete one of the great miracle comebacks in baseball history; the other is back for the second year in a row, seeking its first championship and perhaps starting a dynasty of excellence. Neither team ranked in the top 10 in payroll and each has just one big free-agent signing on its roster. Nobody is buying a World Series trophy this year.

You can never predict what will happen or who will star in a World Series -- Edgar Renteria? Carlos Ruiz? Jeff Weaver? Scott Brosius? Pat Borders? -- so let’s discuss some key talking points as we head into the Fall Classic.

Can Nelson Cruz be contained, let alone stopped? After setting postseason records for one series with six home runs and 13 RBIs in the American League Championship Series, Cruz enters the World Series on an absolute tear. Can he be expected to keep that going? The obvious answer: No. Will he keep it going? Unlikely. Here’s a look back at the 10 “hottest” hitters from the LCS over the past 10 seasons and how they fared in the World Series.


The quick and dirty math shows this:
LCS: 30 home runs
World Series: 4 home runs

This, of course, is really just a simple law of averages. As good as Cruz was against the Tigers, he’s not the second coming of Babe Ruth or Barry Bonds. We saw this last year with Cruz: After hitting .375 with five home runs in the first two rounds of the playoffs, he hit .200 with one home run in the World Series. Remember, this is a guy who can be pitched to: He had 116 strikeouts and just 33 walks in the regular season, so expect the Cardinals to feed him a lot of offspeed stuff away or off the plate.

Watch how David Freese attacks the first pitch. The NLCS MVP hit .545 with three home runs and nine RBIs in the series -- figures matched in one series only by Lou Gehrig in the 1928 World Series. Freese is 7-for-10 with two home runs in at-bats ending on the first pitch in the playoffs and hit .406 (13-for-32) during the regular season on the first pitch, with four home runs (the MLB average is .330). The Rangers will have these scouting reports, but the problem is Freese usually follows Pujols, Lance Berkman and Matt Holiday in the lineup. If there are guys on base in front of him, he’s going to see pitches to hit.

Octavio Dotel versus Michael Young, Adrian Beltre, Mike Napoli and Cruz. The middle of the Rangers’ order usually features those four right-handed batters in a row, making it easier for Tony La Russa to match up -- and that means we’ll see a lot of Dotel against those guys. Dotel pounds the outside corner against righties with his fastball/slider combo and he was lethal against right-handed batters: They hit just .145 with one home run (and just four extra-base hits) in 123 at-bats. Beltre in particular is prone to chasing that low-and-away slider and considering Napoli is really the one of the four with much patience at the plate, it will be interesting to see if Dotel can silence this fearsome foursome.

Jason Motte is on a roll. The Cardinals’ closer -- although La Russa declines to call him that -- has faced 25 batters in the postseason and retired 24 of them. Like Dotel, he’s much tougher on righties -- .162 average allowed in the regular season with a 45-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio, versus a .270 average against lefties -- and the fact that Josh Hamilton is the Rangers’ only left-handed batter that you have to worry about matching up against works in the Cardinals’ favor. I also love the way La Russa has been handling him: He already has three saves of at least four outs.

Can C.J. Wilson deliver a big start? The Rangers’ No. 1 starter has allowed six home runs in three postseason starts, after allowing just 16 all season. Is he fatigued after a career-high 223 innings? Just in a little slump? As deep as the Texas bullpen is, it seems unlikely the Rangers can win the World Series without at least one shutdown outing from a starter, and Wilson still gives them the best option for that.

Who wins Game 1? Wilson’s Game 1 start against St. Louis ace Chris Carpenter becomes even more important when considering this factoid: The winner of Game 1 has won seven of the past eight and 12 of the past 14 World Series. However, the winner of Game 1 is only 2-4 this postseason.

Lance Berkman versus the Rangers’ left-handed starters. Berkman is much better from the left side of the plate and La Russa has the lefty-killing Allen Craig available from the right side, so it will be interesting to see what La Russa does in games in St. Louis when a left-hander starts. Berkman began his postseason with a bang -- a three-run homer off Roy Halladay in his first at-bat -- but hasn’t delivered an extra-base hit in the 10 games since. I suspect Craig will start in right field in the opener against Wilson. While he’s not a good outfielder, he is an upgrade defensively over Berkman, who may be the worst everyday right fielder in the majors. When the games move to Texas with the designated hitter, La Russa’s decision becomes easier, as he can put both guys in the lineup, making the Cardinals that rare NL team that can field a nine-deep lineup to match the best of the AL.

Ron Washington versus Tony La Russa. Washington’s new secret weapon in the bullpen -- Alexi Ogando and his high-90s fastball -- has allowed Washington to avoid some of the questionable bullpen moves he made last season. La Russa will use Marc Rzepczynski and Arthur Rhodes to match up against Josh Hamilton, so that should leave Washington without worrying whom to hit for David Murphy or Mitch Moreland (when he’s in the lineup; Michael Young will undoubtedly play first base in the games in St. Louis). La Russa is unlikely to pinch hit for anybody except his second basemen, and if he carries 12 pitches, even that becomes less likely in the NL games. It means both managers should be able to get the matchups they want out of the bullpen.

The key decisions both will face, of course: How soon to yank the starting pitchers? Will either team get a quality start after both rotations struggled in the LCS? I think the team that wins the World Series will be the team that goes deepest with its starters. Yanking guys after three or four innings will be playing with fire.

Finally … may the hottest team win. Let’s be honest here: The World Series isn’t about crowning the best team of the baseball season. It’s about crowning the team that plays the best in October -- the team with the hot bullpen, or the third baseman who hits over .500 or the right fielder who slugs six home runs in six games.

Just look at the World Series champs of the wild-card era:

2010
Champion: San Francisco Giants (92-70, 5th)
Best record: Philadelphia Phillies (97-65)


2009
Champion: New York Yankees (103-59)
Best record: New York Yankees


2008
Champion: Philadelphia Phillies (92-70, 5th)
Best record: Los Angeles Angels (100-62)


2007
Champion: Boston Red Sox (96-66, tied for 1st)
Best record: Boston Red Sox and Cleveland Indians


2006
Champion: St. Louis Cardinals (83-78, 13th)
Best record: New York Yankees and New York Mets (97-65)


2005
Champion: Chicago White Sox (99-63, 2nd)
Best record: St. Louis Cardinals (100-62)


2004
Champion: Boston Red Sox (98-64)
Best record: St. Louis Cardinals (105—57)


2003
Champion: Florida Marlins (91-71, 7th)
Best record: Atlanta Braves and New York Yankees (101-61)


2002
Champion: Anaheim Angels (99-63, 4th)
Best record: New York Yankees and Oakland A’s (103-59)


2001
Champion: Arizona Diamondbacks (92-70, 6th)
Best record: Seattle Mariners (116-46)


2000
Champion: New York Yankees (87-74, 9th)
Best record: San Francisco Giants (97-65)


1999
Champion: New York Yankees (98-64, 3rd)
Best record: Atlanta Braves (103-59)


1998
Champion: New York Yankees (114-48)
Best record: New York Yankees


1997
Champion: Florida Marlins (92-70, 4th)
Best record: Atlanta Braves (101-61)


1996
Champion: New York Yankees (92-70, 3rd)
Best record: Cleveland Indians (99-62)


1995
Champion: Atlanta Braves (90-54, 2nd)
Best record: Cleveland Indians (100-44)

This isn’t meant to knock the Cardinals or Rangers. In the end, history will remember only which team wins that final game.