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This is what will have American League pitchers and managers waking up in cold sweats all season long: Those stretches when Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder are both raking, eyes bulging as they pummel meaty fastballs over fences and into outfield seats.

Josh Beckett become the first pitcher to experience these forces of nature in action, as both hit two home runs off him in Detroit's 10-0 victory Saturday over Boston. Fielder hit one out to left field and a low, screaming bullet to right for his pair. Going the opposite way is nothing new for him; 11 of his 38 home runs in 2011 went to left or left-center. There were some concerns that Fielder would lose a few home runs moving from Miller Park to the more spacious environs of Comerica, so hitting one out to left is a good, early sign.

How dynamic is this pair? A season ago, Fielder hit .299/.415/.566 with 38 home runs; Cabrera hit .344/.448/.586 with 30 home runs. The last team with two players to hit 30 home runs with a .400 OBP? The 2006 Red Sox with Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz. Twelve teams since 2000 have had such a duo (or in the case of the 2004 Cardinals, three players):

2006 Red Sox: Ramirez, Ortiz
2005 Yankees: Alex Rodriguez, Jason Giambi
2004 Cardinals: Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen
2003 Yankees: Giambi, Jorge Posada
2002 Astros: Jeff Bagwell, Lance Berkman
2001 Rockies: Todd Helton, Larry Walker
2001 Cardinals: Pujols, Edmonds
2000 Cardinals: Edmonds, Mark McGwire
2000 Angels: Tim Salmon, Troy Glaus
2000 Astros: Bagwell, Moises Alou
2000 Mariners: Rodriguez, Edgar Martinez
2000 Giants: Barry Bonds, Jeff Kent

Of course, all of those pairs or threesomes did this during the high-offense steroids period. Six other teammates did it between 1995 and 1999. But before that? That previous team to have two such players was the 1969 Oakland A's with Reggie Jackson and Sal Bando. Throughout baseball history there have been only 34 such pairs. Here's another way to do this. Let's add OPS+ (adjusted on-base plus slugging percentage) as a third measuring stick. OPS+ adjusts a player's offensive production for home park and era. In 2011, Cabrera's OPS+ was 181, second in the American League. Fielder's was 164, fourth in the National League. Let's set a minimum of 30 home runs, .400 OBP and 150 OPS+.

This takes away some of steroids-era pairs and leaves us with 24 such teammates in baseball history. And six of those 24 were Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig.

And that, my readers, is the kind of company Cabrera and Fielder have the chance to join.

A few more notes from today's early games:

• Beckett served up five home runs, sending waves of sweats and swears throughout Red Sox Nation. He became just the fourth pitcher to allow five homers twice in his career, joining Tim Wakefield, Pat Hentgen and Jeff Weaver. Gordon Edes had a good piece on Beckett before his season debut, detailing his motivation for 2012. Beckett is a bit of an enigma, a guy usually viewed as an ace due to his postseason heroics with the Red Sox in 2007 and Marlins in 2003. But the facts also don't lie: He's finished in the top 10 in his league in ERA only twice, including last season with a 2.89 mark. Beckett has been homer-prone at various stages of his career, most notably in his first season with Boston, in 2006, when he gave up 36. It's only one start, of course, but considering the spring training thumb injury he insisted wasn't an injury, it puts Beckett on the early "keep an eye on him" watch list.
• Angels manager Mike Scioscia picked Game No. 2 to get disgruntled Bobby Abreu in the lineup, putting Abreu in left and moving Vernon Wells to center, sitting defensive whiz Peter Bourjos in the process. "I'm not calling this a day off for Peter, it's the second game, but it's a combination of that and trying to get some left-handed bats in the lineup," Scioscia told Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles. I can't imagine a more defensively challenged outfield pair than those two. Unable to see this game since I had the Red Sox-Tigers game as my local Fox broadcast, I tweeted Angels and Royals fans to ask how many of the 11 hits Dan Haren allowed fell just out of their reach. The consensus seemed to be two or three, although @dblesky wrote, "There were really only a couple. And one was glaring." It will be interesting to see how often Scioscia runs out this lineup, essentially to placate Abreu. I just don't see the Angels being a better team with that alignment and Bourjos on the bench.
• Zack Greinke had a dominant effort in the Brewers' 6-0 shutout over the Cardinals, allowing three hits in seven innings with no walks and seven strikeouts. I wrote this before the game, but here's why Greinke is a good Cy Young pick. Especially impressive were Greinke's economical 91 pitches.
• Tweet of the day after Daniel Hudson and the Diamondbacks beat the Giants for the second consecutive game:
  

  Good way to start the season. Two mistakes and I paid for it. But a win is a win. #sweepthegiants tomorrow! #GoDbacks
  
  — Daniel Hudson (@DHuddy41) April 7, 2012

JUPITER, Fla. -- Hall of Fame manager Whitey Herzog leans against the bullpen wall while former player and new Cardinals manager Mike Matheny talks with the media. Off in the distance Lou Brock sits in the shade at a picnic table waiting to go into the batting cages with the team.

Hitting coach John Mabry, who also played for the Cardinals, gathers baseballs from the field for batting practice. He is laughing, having a great time talking to players as he walks around the field. He reaches down and grabs a ball off the outfield grass next to former Cardinal and now broadcaster Al Hrabosky.

St. Louis Cardinals spring training feels like a cross between a family reunion and a road trip to Cooperstown.

In the middle of this happy gathering is 6-foot-5 hitting coach Mark McGwire. He’s walking up and down the baseline during conditioning exercises. McGwire doesn’t exactly blend into the group, but he doesn’t stand out, either. He stops next to Rafael Furcal and grabs his shoulders, giving him an encouraging tap; a positive word of encouragement.

Here in Jupiter, McGwire is light years away from the flash bulbs in Busch Stadium when he broke the single-season home run record in 1998. He is light years away from the congressional hearing in 2005 and light years away from an emotional interview with Bob Costas in 2010 when he admitted to steroid use.

For years former Cardinals manager Tony La Russa tried to get McGwire back into baseball, but McGwire says of those conversations, "I wasn’t ready."

La Russa told McGwire, "The art of coaching is tough. It is not an easy task." In 2010 McGwire decided he was ready to give it a try.

"When I took the job I just felt like I’ve gone through so much in my career as a hitter, why not pass it on?" McGwire said. "That’s what coaching is all about."

McGwire says his first couple of seasons as coach took some adjusting but now he’s in a great place.

"I’ve been around here enough years now I know when to go say something to them and when not to say something to them," McGwire says of working with hitters. "I’ve been in that place before. When you’re struggling the last thing you really want is somebody in your ear."

McGwire the teacher

Lost in the outstanding pitching performances of the postseason and the historic World Series run was the consistent offense the Cardinals had in 2011. They led the National League in batting average (.273), on-base percentage (.341), slugging percentage (.425), runs (762), hits (1513), total bases (2351) and RBIs (726). Not only did they lead in NL in almost every category of offense but they had the fewest strikeouts (978).

McGwire’s coaching and his ability to reach some of the younger guys in the clubhouse were a huge part of the successful offense. Each day during the season McGwire spends about an hour and a half watching video of pitchers. Then he spends time watching video of the hitters who are struggling at the plate.

"My theory is the majority of the time when hitters are struggling it is usually about pitches that they are trying to hit," he says. "They are trying to hit pitches they can’t handle. The whole thing is they have to stay in their zone. They have to understand their strike zone. If you are going to go out of your strike zone and think that you can cover the whole 17 inches of the plate, it is pretty hard to do that up here in the big leagues. ... I don’t know of anybody that makes a big living hitting pitches that are off the plate."

Sounds simple, doesn’t it? Even Carlos Beltran jokes about it, "He has a very deep philosophy, see the ball, hit the ball."

But it is working. When the Cardinals swung the bat they made more contact with pitches inside the strike zone (89.6 percent) than any other team in the majors.

Matt Holliday says McGwire’s principles as far as having a direct, short swing have helped him. His game plan against pitchers has helped as well, but more than anything, it is the mental aspect of the game where McGwire’s coaching stands out.

"At this level I think mechanics is a small part," Holliday said. "When you get to this level there are tweaks and sometimes some bad habits that can creep in. ... But he’s great at encouraging. He walks in the door with a ton of respect just based on his playing career. ... He had experienced a lot of highs and lows in his career so he speaks from a place of experience, which I think automatically adds creditability to what he is saying."

Outfielder Jon Jay worked with McGwire plenty this spring training. Jay says no matter how he’s hitting -- good or bad -- McGwire always has something positive to say to him.

"The first thing is he’s always available to talk," Jay says. "He’s got so much knowledge about hitting. It’s great to have somebody like that. He’s somebody that is passionate about it."

Skip Schumaker appreciates McGwire’s ability to always find a positive, helping hitters avoid the "funk," as Schumaker calls it.

"Guys up here know how to hit," Schumaker said. "At the end of the day it’s just the mental side that is the grind. And he is very good at that."

The 2011 Cardinals will be forever remembered as the team that just would not die, a team of fighters coming through when the game was on the line, but the mental strength of the club -- while starting with great players -- was drawn from McGwire planting seeds of encouragement throughout the season.

Of the eight playoff teams in 2011, the Cardinals had the most production in high leverage situations -- those times when the game is on the line. They had the most walks in those situations and had the second-most home runs (33) of the playoff teams, behind only the Yankees' 35.

"Baseball, being a game of adjustments, it’s all about positive reinforcement," McGwire said. "It’s like being a psychologist. You have to talk about the positives because no matter what, there’s always something you can find good about it.

"It’s just how cliché it is: Hard work pays off. But it does. I mean, it does. The work that all these hitters put in the cage before, after and during the game pays off. ... There’s so much failure in the game of baseball, especially in hitting. We’re there as coaches to make it all positive."

How to reach hitters

One would think any coach could say positive things to a hitter but the reality is there is an art to reaching them. This is one of the reasons St. Louis employs two hitting coaches.

"The thing is there’s not just one way [of teaching]," McGwire said. "We all try to teach the hitters to get the barrel through the zone on the same path. There’s not one way of teaching it. ... The way I say it may not click with someone the way John [Mabry] says it. That’s the beauty about it."

Following the Cardinals' lead, Padres general manager Josh Byrnes hired Alonzo Powell as a second hitting coach. "We’re one of maybe five or so teams now that have a two-hitting coach model," said Byrnes. McGwire believes every team should do it.

Even with two coaches, the most important aspect of being a good hitting instructor is trust. Hitters need someone they can rely on, someone who knows them and can bring the right perspective into their struggles at the plate. Guys who have worked with McGwire say they trust him.

"He wants you to do good but I think that’s any coach," Schumaker said. "There’s nothing he hasn’t gone through; good and bad. That’s why I think so many people respect him."

The joy McGwire finds in passing on the lessons he learned while playing baseball and his close relationship with the players is obvious. But his legacy in baseball remains controversial. McGwire’s story is not over, but for now he doesn't seem concerned with how his career will be remembered.

"It’s not up to me," McGwire said. "It doesn’t matter to me."

* * * *

After the morning workout McGwire walks off the field with a group of players and coaches. There are two boys standing off to the side of the outfield grass. They look about 14 years old, maybe 15. Old enough to be thoroughly devoted and in love with baseball but young enough to have no memories of McGwire’s record-breaking season. Maybe they know the story of 1998. Maybe they just know him as the hitting coach for the 2011 World Series champions.

McGwire’s legacy is now up to them.

Baseball, like the Cardinals' spring training, thrives when the legends of the game can pass on their knowledge to the next generation. McGwire could have walked away from baseball forever -- there are plenty of golf courses to play, plenty of things to keep him busy. It might have been easier, but like anyone who loves baseball, it is hard to stay away.

"I’ve always thought I’ve had a really good eye," McGwire said about why he enjoys coaching. "I think I can see things -- I can just see things. And it’s just something that I want to pass on to them. I’m their eyes and ears."

The two boys let the other players and coaches walk past but ask McGwire for his autograph.

McGwire signs the ball, smiles and walks away -- out of the public eye and into the shadows of the batting cages -- to work with a few players before the game.

The boys stand for a minute and look at the signature on the ball. They smile at each other. There is something there, a flicker in their eyes described best by the baseball Hall of Fame’s motto of "preserving history, honoring excellence and connecting generations."

One of the boys puts the ball in his pocket and they walk away to watch the game.

It's difficult enough to get three people to agree on anything, let alone 573.

So the fact that the Baseball Writers’ Association of America managed to push Barry Larkin past the 75 percent threshold to elect him into the Hall of Fame is a minor miracle. After all, Larkin received just 62 percent of the vote last year and isn't the kind of slam-dunk candidate the writers usually agree on. There was a good chance the writers would pitch their first shutout since 1996. Still, his 24 percent leap in one year is astonishing and only serves to show the capriciousness of the entire process. Somehow, a full one-quarter of the voters suddenly changed their ballots from "no" to "yes" on Larkin.

Otherwise, there was nothing too surprising about the results. The baseball writers are stingier than the electorates in the other major sports. Although the BBWAA has now elected 16 players in the past 10 years (two more were elected via the Veterans Committee), the NFL has elected 51 players, the NHL 26 and the NBA (with far smaller rosters) 20. Larkin was only the holdover from last year within range of the three-quarters vote.


That doesn't mean, in my humble opinion, there weren't other qualified candidates. Jeff Bagwell was the best player on this year's ballot, a dominant all-around player and former MVP winner. On his first year on the ballot a year ago, he received just 42 percent of the vote, and it became clear that many voters refused to put his name on their ballots because of suspected performance-enhancing drug use, even though Bagwell has never been linked to any steroids usage, whether through the Mitchell report or a positive test late in his career. He did receive 56 percent of the vote this year, which is actually a very positive sign for his future induction.

For most Hall of Famers, it's a climb to get to 75 percent. You would need an advanced degree in psychology to understand exactly what happens in the voting process, but there is no doubt that some form of empathy develops once a player gets over 50 percent. At that point, election becomes a clear possibility, and the voting bloc usually transitions rapidly from "maybe" to "yes." In fact, in the past 25 years, the only players to reach 50 percent in the BBWAA vote and not get elected to the Hall are Jim Bunning, Orlando Cepeda and Jack Morris. The Veterans Committee eventually selected Bunning and Cepeda, and Morris is still on the ballot.

The problem with Morris is that it took him 11 years to get to 50 percent. The election of Bert Blyleven a year ago cleared the path for him as the best starting pitcher on the ballot, but climbing from 53.5 percent to 75 percent in one year was just too much, and he received 66.7 percent. With the ballot exploding with strong candidates in the next two years, it will be difficult for Morris to get over the hump. We saw this in 1999, when Nolan Ryan, George Brett and Robin Yount were elected -- holdovers from the 1998 ballot saw their vote totals dip significantly while being compared to those three. For example, Tony Perez dropped from 68 percent to 61 percent; Gary Carter from 42 to 34 percent; Jim Rice from 43 to 29. A year later, Perez got 77 percent and was elected, Rice got 52 percent and Carter 50. Rice and Carter both eventually made it.

So although Morris is close, he'll start to face "competition" in 2013 from Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling, and in 2014 from Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and Mike Mussina. Still, he's now so close, I think there's a good chance he'll get in over the next two years, especially with strong anti-PED ballots still running at a fever pitch. Morris may be seen as a "clean" candidate.

After six years on the ballot, Mark McGwire remained steady at 19.5 percent. Rafael Palmeiro, despite being one of just four players with at least 10 seasons of 35 home runs and 100 RBIs (Alex Rodriguez has 12, Babe Ruth 11, Palmeiro and Jimmie Foxx 10) again received even less support than McGwire, with just 12.6 percent of the vote.

Other than Larkin and Bagwell, the player who received the best news today is probably Tim Raines. He jumped from 38 percent to just shy of 49 percent. He's almost at that magical 50 percent make, and as with Blyleven, the statistical analysis that shows he's actually a strong Hall of Fame candidate rather than a marginal one is beginning to mount. It will take several years, but he appears to finally be gaining enough momentum.

Lee Smith did cross the 50 percent mark for the first time, so maybe his election is also inevitable. I'm not so sure that's the case; as a reliever, he's a bit of a unique case, and his vote total has actually remained fairly constant, as he debuted nine years ago at 42.3 percent. With the glut of starting pitching and position player candidates coming up in the next few years, the 10-man limit per ballot would seem to hurt Lee's chances. As for Bernie Williams, at least he stayed on the ballot.

I'm not an actual Hall of Fame voter. But if I did have a ballot, here's what it would look like.

Yes votes

Jeff Bagwell: He's vastly overqualified by even tough Hall of Fame standards, an outstanding all-around player who was one of the very best of his generation. A "no" vote on Bagwell can only be justified under ... well, I don't believe it can.

Barry Larkin: As valuable as Ozzie Smith, I view him as one of the top 10 shortstops of all time. Easily qualified by even tough Hall of Fame standards.

Edgar Martinez: I wrote about Edgar a couple years ago. I admit to some bias as a Mariners fan, but Martinez is simply one of the best hitters of all time. His career was a little short, and yes, he spent most of his time as a designated hitter, but he was so dominant at the plate that he deserves the votes.

Mark McGwire: We all know the issues. Look, eventually these guys will get in ... the Hall of Fame won't stand for the baseball writers determining a moral standard for election to its Hall of Fame. The Hall doesn't belong to the writers; they are merely a conduit for election. It might take five years or 10 years or 25 years, but time will pass and McGwire and others from his generation will get in.

Rafael Palmeiro: Leaving aside the PED issue, there's obviously no precedent for leaving out a player with Palmerio's career credentials -- 569 home runs (12th all time), 3,020 hits (25th), 1,835 RBIs (16th), 1,663 runs (31st) and 5,388 total bases (10th). You do read things like "Palmeiro was never one of the best at his position" as justification for not voting for him. But I don't think that's quite accurate. Using Baseball-Reference WAR, here are the top five first basemen in the majors from 1989 to 2004:



Palmeiro twice rates as the best first baseman in the league, second another time and has two other seasons in the top five (plus one season as the best DH). On top of the career totals and amazing durability, that's good enough for me.

Tim Raines: The second-greatest leadoff hitter of all time, comparable in value to Tony Gwynn. Should be a lock, but hasn't reached 40 percent of the vote during his four years on the ballot. SweetSpot readers give Raines the "yes" nod by an 85-15 vote.

Alan Trammell: I didn't write about Trammell, but his Hall of Fame support has been surprisingly minimal and he has no shot of getting in this year. In reality, you can't find two players much more identical than Larkin and Trammell.

So close I would feel guilty if I had an actual ballot

Jack Morris: I think those who rely solely on WAR sell him short. He survived in an era when most starting pitchers didn't last long enough to establish Hall of Fame credentials. He did have a certain aura about him that doesn't show up in the statistics. As I wrote the other day, he's very close. SweetSpot voters are split as well: 54 percent say yes, 46 percent say no.

Worth strong consideration, and maybe I'll change my mind in the future

Fred McGriff: I wrote on the Crime Dog over the weekend. I could be wrong here; of the nearly 3,500 votes in the SweetSpot poll, 83 percent of you consider McGriff a Hall of Famer ... a huge split over the criminally low support the BBWAA has given him (just 18 percent last year).

Larry Walker: My friend Jim Caple asks how I could consider Martinez a Hall of Famer, but not Walker, considering Walker's all-around brilliance, similar career length (8,030 plate appearances for Walker, 8,672 for Martinez) and similar OPS+ totals (147 for Martinez, 140 for Walker). I'll investigate Walker further next year, but three things still bother me:

(1) His home/road splits during his Coors Field days are generally quite large:

1995: .343/.401/.701 at home, .268/.361/.484 on the road
1996: .393/.448/.800 at home, .142/.216/.307 on the road
1997: .384/.460/.709 at home, .346/.443/.733 on the road
1998: .418/.483/.757 at home, .302/.403/.488 on the road
1999: .461/.531/.879 at home, .286/.375/.519 on the road
2000: .359/.446/.615 at home, .259/.371/.399 on the road
2001: .406/.483/.773 at home, .293/.416/.549 on the road
2002: .362/.453/.671 at home, .312/.387/.530 on the road
2003: .338/.469/.551 at home, .227/.370//395 on the road

(2) Dante Bichette, Ellis Burks, Andres Galarraga, Todd Helton -- a lot of players put up monster numbers in Coors in the '90s and early '00s.

(3) Martinez didn't have a long career, because the Mariners screwed around with him for three years. Walker only reached 8,000 plate appearances because he was very injury-prone -- he missed 495 games during his prime years with various injuries. (Walker played 140-plus games just four times; Martinez did it nine times.)

Bernie Williams: A brilliant player for eight seasons and a key player on four World Series champs. But the Hall of Fame is simultaneously a mix of peak performance and endurance; Williams' peak value is close, but I believe he falls short on the career trek.

A little short for my tastes

Dale Murphy: Similar to Williams, except he won two MVP Awards but lacks the rings. His run was even shorter -- really only an outstanding player from 1982-1985, plus 1980 and 1987.

Lee Smith: I'm not a big fan of closers, even if they did last forever. When I wrote about Smith, my biggest issue is that I don't think he was ever the best closer in the game. It might also be worth considering that the four modern closers in the Hall -- Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, Bruce Sutter and Dennis Eckersley -- were all closers for World Series winners. Smith appeared in only four postseason games in his career (and lost two of them).

I used to play my friend Dusty in a Pursue the Pennant simulation league, back when the game was still played with cards and dice. Our battles were famed for our Dennis Martinez-Nolan Ryan pitching duels, but Dusty also had Fred McGriff. He killed me. Considering I was stuck with fat, past-his-prime Kent Hrbek as my first baseman, I lusted to acquire McGriff. He was, after all, one of the premier hitters in the game -- although nobody seemed to give him much attention as such at the time, as he was kind of the quiet assassin plying his lumber north of the border.

Crime Dog has a pretty good Hall of Fame case, and it has nothing to do with his owning the last great nickname in baseball or even the Tom Emanski commercial. As Jim Caple once wrote, if McGriff ever makes the Hall of Fame, there should be no controversy over which cap he'll wear on his plaque -- he should just wear this one. He'd whip that bat through the zone, finishing the swing with a high-arcing flourish, his top hand coming off the bat, his bottom hand ending above his head. You always knew a Fred McGriff swing. It was a thing of unique, awkward beauty.

This will be McGriff's third year on the ballot and he hasn't done well so far -- 21.5 percent in 2010 and 17.9 percent last year. But check out his career numbers compared to the past three first basemen elected to Cooperstown:


Murray, with his long career and 3,000 hits and 500 home runs, soared in his first year. Cepeda was a Veterans Committee selection in 1999, which essentially forced the writers to finally vote in Perez the following year.

Let's look at two more numbers: career WAR and seasons in the top 10 of MVP voting.

McGriff: 50.5, six (best finish: fourth)
Murray: 66.7, eight (best finish: second two times)
Perez: 50.5, four (best finish: third)
Cepeda: 46.8, three (best finish: first)

So McGriff favors comparably with Perez and Cepeda, although to be fair, they are pretty soft as far as Hall of Famers go. On the other hand, Hall of Fame voters have been tough on first basemen -- only four Hall of Famers who played at least 50 percent of their career games at first base began their careers after 1936 -- Cepeda, Perez, Murray and Willie McCovey.

McGriff's career is a little tough to analyze, since he began in the reputed pre-steroids era and then played into the heart of the era of high-powered sluggers. So while his production remained fairly consistent, his value went down, in comparison to other first basemen. Here, let me show you. Here are his rankings in various categories among players who played at least 50 percent of their games at first base each season.


In 1989, a .924 OPS was good enough to lead the American League (and rank second behind Will Clark among first basemen). A .930 OPS in 2001 ranked only seventh. McGriff was one of the best first basemen in baseball from 1988 through 1994 -- a solid run of seven seasons. A mid-career dip and increase in offense around the majors lessened his value. By 2000, a first baseman who hit 27 home runs with an .826 OPS had little value at all; every team seemingly had a first baseman who could match that rate of production.

It doesn't help McGriff's case that he's not identified with one team. He did make four playoff appearances with the Braves (and one with the Blue Jays) and hit very well in the postseason -- .303/.385/.505 in 50 games -- but going from the Blue Jays to the Padres to the Braves to the Rays to the Cubs to the Dodgers seems to have sapped his legacy. Perez, for example, was a key component on the Big Red Machine. Having a label like that helps. For McGriff, his best seasons were performed in relative anonymity in Toronto and San Diego. His monster numbers from those early years don't look as impressive in comparison to the monster numbers of a decade later.

But they were. From 1988 to 1994, he ranked fourth, first, third, third, third, fifth and fifth in his league in OPS. How many Hall of Famers can claim a run like that?

In the end, however, McGriff remains borderline. The biggest problem is that there are three first baseman on the ballot who are better Hall of Fame candidates in Jeff Bagwell, Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro. Obviously, there are complicating issues around those guys. Plus, there are first basemen such as Keith Hernandez, John Olerud and Will Clark, who arguably had similar value to McGriff, albeit compiled in ways that didn't appeal to Hall voters (on-base percentage, defense).

For now, I say McGriff is just short. And that's not an easy assessment to make for a guy with 493 home runs and over 1,500 RBIs.

• I hope you read Jayson Stark's piece arguing that baseball actually has more parity than the NFL.
• From ESPN Insider, Dave Cameron looks at three one-time All-Stars who are good candidates to bounce back in 2012 and Dan Szymborski looks at the remaining needs for all 30 teams.
• Bill Baer of Crashburn Alley asks Ben Duronio of Capitol Avenue Club and Dave Gershman of Marlins Daily to assess the offseason moves of the Braves and Marlins.
• Jon Shepherd of Camden Depot looks at some trade possibilities for Adam Jones. First, teams in the NL West; and then teams in the AL East.
• Jason Wojciechowski of Beaneball.org takes a look at Jonah Keri's piece on Grantland about the A's crying poor.
• Jason also has a guest column at Baseball Prospectus, an excellent think piece on the wisdom of uncertainty.
• The Hall of Fame is on everyone's minds and we could link to a thousand columns out there. Courtesy of Rob Neyer comes a columnist who would have a very unique Hall ballot: Mark McGwire ... and nobody else.
• Our Value Over Replacement Grit says it's time to put the "HOF" back in the Hall of Fame!
• Bill at The Platoon Advantage runs down the other 42 players -- those eligible for the Hall of Fame this year who didn't even make the cut to get on the ballot.
• Troy Patterson has a look at Josh Beckett and the front of the Red Sox rotation.
• Alcides Escobar can play shortstop. But will he ever become adequate at the plate?
• The Mariners signed Japanese right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma, and it could be a steal.
• More Jonah Keri over at Grantland, where he has a look at 10 key players on contenders who could end up starting and becoming important contributors.
• Stephanie Liscio reminds us that Cleveland Indians still have the second-longest title drought. But maybe this will be the year.
• Finally, it's not all baseball-related, but check out Page 2's Year in Quotes.

Let's be honest: I don't think Arte Moreno cares too much about 2017 or 2018, let alone 2021, when Albert Pujols will be 41 years old and finishing up the final season of his 10-year, $254 million contract with the Los Angeles Angels.

Last week, ESPN Insider Dan Szymborski projected Pujols' numbers over the next 10 years. Szymborski's system predicts a fairly rapid decline for Pujols after the first four seasons. The Pujols defenders will rightly point out, however, that there have been few players like him in the history of baseball, that he doesn't drink and eats his vegetables and all that, and thus any projection system concerning Pujols will have a wide range of error.

So let's do this. Let's look at the most valuable first baseman or designated hitter since 1969 at each age, from 32 to 41, using Baseball-Reference's Wins Above Replacement system. I'm using designated hitters for two reasons: Pujols will inevitably end up there at some point, and as you'll see, many of the "best" players at these ages have been DHs, not first basemen. Simply put: First basemen, even great ones, do not age well. At the end, we'll compare the total WAR of this method to Szymborski's ZiPS system.

Age 32: Lance Berkman, 2008 Astros -- 6.7 WAR (.312/.420/.567)

Actually, Edgar Martinez of the '95 Mariners was higher with 7.7 WAR, but he was primarily a DH that year. Martinez hit .356/.479/.628. It's perhaps interesting to note that Berkman and Martinez (you'll see his name a lot on this list) have higher career walk rates than Pujols. Berkman is at 15.5 percent for his career, Pujols at 13.1 percent. Martinez finished at 14.8 percent. If you factor in only unintentional walks, the difference is even greater. Pujols' walk rate declined in 2011 to a career-low 9.4 percent. Some of that was due to a big drop in intentional walks, but he was also more aggressive at the plate -- he averaged 3.65 pitches per plate appearance, his lowest average since 2004 and the second-lowest average of his career. Was it an anomaly, or the sign of a hitter with declining bat speed looking to "speed up" his bat by cheating a bit? One of the keys to Martinez being so successful late into his 30s was his extraordinary plate discipline. Pujols doesn't strike out much, but if he's cheating, that means he'll chase more bad pitches. And remember, walks create value in the form of on-base percentage. Pujols' .366 OBP in 2011 was 60 points below his career mark entering the season.

Next five: Willie McCovey (6.4), Jim Thome (5.9), Cecil Cooper (5.9), Keith Hernandez (5.6), Jeff Bagwell (5.5).

Age 33: Rafael Palmeiro, 1998 Orioles -- 6.2 WAR (.296/.379/.565)

From 1995 through 2003 (when he was 38), Palmeiro averaged 41 home runs per season. His average WAR over that span was 4.1. The potential edge Pujols has over Palmeiro is batting average -- Palmeiro hit .285/.380/.556 and was helped by playing five seasons in Texas. On the other hand, Palmeiro had 90-plus walks in a season five times over that 1995-03 span. Pujols walked 61 times in 2011.

Next five: Edgar Martinez (6.2), Jeff Bagwell (5.3), John Olerud (5.1), Todd Helton (5.0), Mark McGwire (4.9)

Age 34: Mark McGwire, 1998 Cardinals -- 7.2 WAR (.299/.470/.752)

Well, needless to say this one comes with a big asterisk. Look below and you will see the overall values of the best first basemen are starting to tail off quite rapidly.

Next five: Edgar Martinez (6.2), Eddie Murray (5.6), Carlos Delgado (3.8), Jeff Bagwell (3.8), Don Baylor (3.7)

Age 35: Mark McGwire, 1999 Cardinals -- 5.5 WAR (.278/.424/.697)

Thome makes the next five list below. He's one of the best hitters of the past 25 years, but from age 32 on, Thome had just two seasons with an offensive WAR of 4.0 or greater (ages 32 and 35). He's a different kind of hitter than Pujols, of course -- lower average, more strikeouts, more walks. But through age 31, he was hitting .287/.414/.567. From age 32 onward, he's hit .264/.388/.542. Thome is actually a kind of a best-case scenario: He has maintained much of his value as a hitter, although he's had issues remaining completely healthy.

Next five: Edgar Martinez (5.0), Jim Thome (4.6), Al Oliver (4.3), Todd Helton (4.2), Wally Joyner (4.2)

Age 36: Paul Molitor, 1993 Blue Jays -- 5.7 WAR (.332/.402/.509)

We're starting to see more designated hitters now. Molitor, Martinez and Hal McRae were all DHs.

Next five: Edgar Martinez (4.6), Rod Carew (4.4), Will Clark (4.1), Hal McRae (4.0), Jeff Bagwell (3.5)

Age 37: Edgar Martinez, 2000 Mariners -- 5.7 WAR (.324/.423/.579)

Now it's getting even more extreme: Only Andres Galarraga played first base of the top six guys here. The point is: Pujols will have to continue to hit like Martinez and continue to play first base to maintain his WAR above 5.0. Martinez hit .324 at 37. Pujols' batting averages the past four seasons: .357, .327, .312, .299.

Next five: Andres Galarraga (5.4), Frank Robinson (4.7), Ellis Burks (4.0), Paul Molitor (3.3), Brian Downing (3.1)

Age 38: Edgar Martinez, 2001 Mariners -- 5.5 WAR (.306/.423/.543)

Again ... a bunch of DHs, other than Willie Stargell, who had a nice late-career push at ages 38 and 39 (hitting a combined .287/.367/.559 over those two years, although offering little on the bases or in the field).

Next five: Frank Robinson (3.7), Willie Stargell (3.4), Frank Thomas (3.3), Gary Sheffield (3.1), Rico Carty (3.0)

Age 39: Paul Molitor, 1996 Twins -- 3.4 WAR (.341/.390/.468)

Molitor had an amazing late peak: From ages 34 through 40, he hit .320. Again, a totally different type of hitter and athlete than Pujols -- smaller, faster, much more athletic in the traditional sense of speed and agility.

Next five: Edgar Martinez (2.8), Willie Stargell (2.3), Brian Downing (2.1), Frank Thomas (2.0), Dave Parker (1.9)

Age 40: Edgar Martinez, 2003 Mariners -- 3.5 WAR (.294/.406/.489)

Look how low the WAR totals are getting. These aren't players who offer much value at this point in their careers.

Next five: Brian Downing (2.5), Harold Baines (2.3), Paul Molitor (1.4), Pete Rose (1.4), Reggie Jackson (1.3)

Age 41: Brian Downing, 1992 Rangers -- 2.5 WAR (.278/.407/.428)

If Pujols is still playing in the final year of his deal, he'll have to defy the odds of Father Time to remain an asset for the Angels (and by asset, we mean you'll have to ignore his salary). Downing is the only first baseman/DH to produce a WAR above 0.1 at age 41 since 1969.

OK, the final tally:

Szymborski's ZiPS: 32.4 WAR -- 32 wins above replacement level
Best players at each age: 51.9 WAR -- 52 wins above replacement level

What's interesting is that currently a win on the free-agent market is worth about $5 million. Take $254 million and divide by $5 million, and you get ... 50.8 wins.

So, if Pujols matches the production of the best player at each age since 1969 for the next 10 seasons, his on-field value will actually match the contract Moreno gave him. As great as Pujols is, I don’t see that happening, especially considering the signs of decline the past four seasons (his on-base percentage has also fallen from .462 to .443 to .414 to .366). Also consider that -- to put this delicately -- at least a couple players on these lists had some unusual aging patters to their careers in the midst of the steroids era.

If Pujols helps deliver the Angels a World Series title or two in the next few years, Moreno will be happy. And yes, Pujols provides value in more ways than just wins on the field -- the Angels reportedly sold 1,000 season-ticket packages after the Pujols and C.J. Wilson signings were announced. No doubt Pujols jerseys and T-shirts will be extremely popular in Orange County this summer. But you can’t deny it remains extremely likely that the back end of the deal will be a major albatross for the Angels.

So your team is offering up a star? Sometimes the prospect you get in return turns to gold. And sometimes (more often?) deals like these 10 happen.

1. Fred McGriff for Melvin Nieves, Donnie Elliott and Vince Moore. (Braves/Padres, 1993.)

2. Rickey Henderson for Steve Karsay and Jose Herrera. (A's/Blue Jays, 1993.)

3. David Cone for Marty Janzen, Jason Jarvis and Mike Gordon. (Yankees/Blue Jays, 1995.)

4. Mark McGwire for T.J. Mathews, Eric Ludwick and Blake Stein. (Cardinals/A's, 1997.)

5. Curt Schilling for Vicente Padilla, Travis Lee, Omar Daal and Nelson Figueroa. (Diamondbacks/Phillies, 2001.)

6. Jason Schmidt for Ryan Vogelsong and Armando Rios. (Giants/Pirates, 2001.)

7. Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton for Bobby Hill, Jose Hernandez and Matt Brubeck. (Cubs/Pirates, 2003.)

8. Carlos Beltran for Mark Teahen, John Buck and Mike Wood. (Astros/Royals/A's, three-way trade, 2004.)

9. Jason Bay for Andy LaRoche, Bryan Morris, Craig Hansen and Brandon Moss. (Pirates/Dodgers/Red Sox three-way trade, 2008.)

10. Matt Holliday for Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortensen and Shane Peterson. (Cardinals/A's, 2009.)

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

The most impressive batting practices I used to watch were those of the Oakland A's in the late 1980s. Back in those days, the Seattle Mariners weren't drawing many fans, but when the "Bash Brothers" came to town, the left-field bleachers would be packed during BP, kids and adults alike fighting for souvenirs. Let's just say Mark McGwire and Jose Canseco weren't exactly working on their opposite-field hitting in those days, so there were plenty of baseballs to be had.

A decade later, I was on the field at Tiger Stadium, watching McGwire take BP during the height of his powers. Honestly, I didn't care what he was using. As he launched home run after home run over the roof in left field, I couldn't believe a human being could hit a baseball that far.

Anyway, Big Mac is in our Ultimate Home Run Derby bracket. Disappointingly, Canseco failed to make the final cut, as did Negro Leagues star Josh Gibson, whom many have said hit 'em longer than The Babe.

So who would win such a fictional derby? Well, let's start by saying who won't win:

Babe Ruth: He'd take a break to wipe off with his Gatorade towel and get a Gatorade drink, and instead ask for a beer and a hot dog, and he'd be done.

Cecil Fielder, Prince Fielder, Boog Powell: Do they have the stamina to outlast this field?

Reggie Jackson: He'd try to show off and jack every pitch 500 feet and pop too many up.

Hank Aaron, Ted Williams, Rogers Hornsby, Frank Thomas, Joe DiMaggio, Albert Pujols: These guys were/are more line-drive hitters with the power to hit home runs, but I'm not sure that would translate over multiple rounds.

Bo Jackson, Rob Deer, Dave Kingman: Deer hit one of the longest home runs I've ever seen, about three-quarters of the way up the left-field foul pole in the Kingdome. I think it would have landed in Puget Sound if it hadn't hit the pole. That said, these guys probably would swing and miss pitches even in BP.

Jose Bautista: Unless the contest is being held in Toronto.

Manny Ramirez: Ability to focus for multiple rounds would be an issue.

Roger Maris, Frank Robinson, Hank Greenberg, Harmon Killebrew: Greenberg had a huge home/road home run split in his career: 205 at home, 126 on the road. As for the others, I guess I'm just biased against players from the '60s.

Alex Rodriguez: Come on, you know he'd start pressing.

Ryan Howard: What if the BP pitcher threw left-handed?

Barry Bonds, Lou Gehrig: Bonds never did well in the derbies in which he participated. Gehrig would conserve his energy for a real game.

My bracket finals:

Mike Schmidt versus Josh Hamilton: If the contest is held during the day, Hamilton has no chance.

Mickey Mantle versus Ken Griffey Jr.: Mantle has the switch-hitting advantage, so he could swing from whichever side gave him the park advantage and he could hit the ball a country mile, as they say. But Griffey was so smooth and effortless, the perfect swing for a home run derby. And he won three of these things. Edge: Junior.

Sammy Sosa versus Mark McGwire: Big Mac moves on in a titanic battle.

Willie Mays versus Jimmie Foxx: Mays had surprising power for his size, but they called Foxx "The Beast." I'll take somebody with that nickname.

Semifinals

Schmidt versus Griffey: Griffey wins. Let's just hope Schmidt doesn't cry after losing.

McGwire versus Foxx: I was standing on Lansdowne Street behind the Green Monster at the 1999 All-Star Game when McGwire hit one over the street, off the top floor of the parking garage and onto the Massachusetts turnpike. My god, was that hit far. He was juiced. The balls might have been juiced. I'll still take Big Mac.

Finals

Griffey versus McGwire: Griffey, baby! In his prime, Junior's pretty swing was a thing of perfection.

By now you've probably seen the hug heard 'round the world between Albert Pujols and Cubs general manager Jim Hendry. However, Major League Baseball has rules against tampering with free agents -- and also frowns upon fraternization between opposing clubs. Frankly, I don't quite get the uproar. After all, baseball has a long and storied history of hugging.

Albert Pujols and Barack Obama

Barry Bonds and Albert Pujols

Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez

Joe Torre and Manny Ramirez

David Ortiz and Bernie Williams

Marisa Miller and Lou Seal

Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa

Reggie Jackson and Billy Martin

Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig

Anna Kournikova and Brian Giles

Chicago Cubs

Hugs for everyone!

Follow David on Twitter: @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog: @espn_sweet_spot.

Carlos Delgado officially announced his retirement, in slightly less dramatic light than Manny Ramirez.

He was a great hitter, a player worthy of some random thoughts ...

1. Delgado came up through the minors as a catcher and everyone knew he could hit -- he ranked as Baseball America's No. 4 prospect in 1993 and No. 5 in 1994. He caught two games in the majors but the Blue Jays originally tried him in left field before he settled in at first base. The attempt to make him a catcher meant he spent two seasons in Triple-A when he was ready for the majors (and probably cost him 500 career home runs).

2. Long home runs. Outside of maybe Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa (ahem), did anyone in the past 15 years hit longer home runs than Delgado? Loved that left-handed power stroke, like he was using a big sledgehammer.

3. The four-homer game against Tampa Bay in 2003. Delgado had taken antibiotics for a cold earlier in the day and homered in all four trips to the plate. His fourth homer was a mammoth blast to center field off Lance Carter.

4. His 99 extra-base hits in 2000 -- he had 57 doubles, a triple and 41 home runs -- tied for 16th-most in one season. Delgado hit .344/.470/.664 that season -- and finished fourth in the MVP voting. Yes, there was a lot of offense that year.

5. His one season with the Marlins. Actually, I don't remember this much at all.

6. Finally making a postseason appearance with the Mets in 2006 -- and raking. He hit .351/.442/.757 in 10 games, with four homers and 11 RBIs. In Game 7 of the NLCS, the Cardinals wanted nothing to do with him -- they walked him three times.

7. He only made two All-Star teams (2000 and 2003). What? The same number as Scott Cooper? How is this possible? Well, here are the first basemen who got selected in his prime years ...

1998: Jim Thome, Rafael Palmeiro, Mo Vaughn.
1999: Jim Thome, Rafael Palmeiro, Ron Coomer ... yes, Ron Coomer! ... plus THREE DHs (Harold Baines, John Jaha and Jose Canseco).
2001: John Olerud, Tony Clark, Jason Giambi, Mike Sweeney.
2002: Jason Giambi, Paul Konerko, Mike Sweeney.
2004: Jason Giambi, Ken Harvey ... yes, the immortal Ken Harvey.
2005: Derrek Lee, Albert Pujols. This one was weird. The NL selected only two first basemen, but Pujols started at DH. Third baseman Morgan Ensberg ended up playing first base. But Cesar Izturis and Felipe Lopez were All-Stars that year.
2006: Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, Ryan Howard, Nomar Garciaparra. Nomar was hitting .358 at the break.
2007: Delgado had a bad year.
2008: Lance Berkman, Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez. This was the year Delgado had a monster second half.

Anyway, I'm not saying he deserved to make it all those years, but it's surprising he was only a two-time All-Star. Heck, Bruce Benedict was a two-time All-Star.

8. His stance against the war in Iraq. Not an easy decision, but I applauded his courage to take a political stand with thought and conviction.

9. He finished with a career WAR of 49.1 via FanGraphs, 44.2 on Baseball-Reference. I'd thought it would be higher, but he's being compared against some great first basemen from his era. That places him about 26th among first basemen (minimum 50 percent of career games at first base) since 1901, similar in career value to guys like Orlando Cepeda, Gil Hodges, Don Mattingly and Boog Powell. He loses a lot of value for baserunning (terrible) and fielding (below average). Based on hitting value alone, he's about 13th to 15th among first basemen.

10. Hall of Famer? Not quite.

Daric Barton is one of the best first-basemen in the game.

Now that I've caught your attention, I can assure you I am serious. Barton deserves to be considered a top 10 first baseman over the next several seasons. In fact, I'd rank Barton ahead of players such as Mark Teixeira and Ryan Howard.

Barton is only just beginning his age-25 season in the majors and already has 1,485 career plate appearances to his name. He might not have the power many projected him to have, but Barton has more than held his own at the plate with a career .260/.369/.399 mark -- that .399 mark is dragged down by a .348 slugging percentage over 523 PA in 2008.

Barton will never be confused with his predecessors of Mark McGwire and Jason Giambi, but posting a .359 wOBA (Think OPS, but better: Weighted On-Base Average, scaled to OBP) was enough to place him 12th among all qualifying first baseman, just behind Teixeira and Howard. And I like Barton's chances of sustaining and improving his offensive production over the next three seasons a whole lot more than I like Howard -- who appears to have already entered his decline phase -- and Teixeira, who is fast developing a reputation for being dinged up and streaky over in New York.

Oh, and we haven't even talked about the contracts that made Howard and Teixeira very rich men. Both have contracts that will bring in well north of $100 million while Barton is just entering his final season at league-minimum salary. The ability for the A's to control Barton for the next four seasons at minimal dollars is a major, major mark in Barton's favor.

But even that's not enough to justify ranking Barton ahead of these players. That's where defense comes in. Barton had a staggering 14.2 UZR/150 (I prefer using UZR/150 to UZR as it allows for across-the-board comparisons) and 20 defensive runs saved (otherwise known as John Dewan's plus/minus rankings).

The Mets’ Ike Davis came in second at 13, but he's the only other one in double-digits ... and only seven first basemen have done better than Davis over the past eight years ... and just one has beaten Barton out. That's Albert Pujols, with 29 DRS in 2007.

How about UZR/150? Barton's 14.2 figure was in front of Davis again, who checked in at 11.9. No other first baseman ranked higher than 4.8. And of the past eight seasons, only five first baseman bettered that figure, led by Pujols again in '07 with a 21.7 mark.

Barton's defense and overall offensive game is exactly why he placed sixth in all first baseman in WAR with 4.2, and that mark is what first caught my attention on how underrated Barton's season was.

Now, a caveat: it's generally accepted that one season is not enough to judge a player on defensive merits. You need more than that as defense can vary wildly from year to year. (Barton is no exception: he had 2 DRS in 2009 with a 6.3 UZR/150, which is still very good.) Three seasons of data appear to be what is necessary. Pujols bookended his sublime 2007 season with 17 DRS in 2006 and 15 in 2008. His UZR/150 were 10.5 and 11.9, respectively. That gives a pretty good picture that his defensive prowess in those years was for real, but he's been on the decline since. His 2009 totals were 12 DRS, 2.3 UZR.150. 2010? Exactly zero DRS and 1.1 UZR/150. Oh, and Pujols was 30.

Why do I mention Pujols' age? Because Bill James wrote the other day that "defensive value peaks earlier and fades MUCH younger than offensive value." (Hat tip to SweetSpot founder Rob Neyer for turning me onto that article.) James contends that defensive peak is reached at ages 22-25 and "many players are fading defensively by the age of 27, long before 30."

And that's why I bring up Pujols' age. Yes, it's cherry-picking, but it's a relevant example, and that's why I also feel Barton's a pretty good bet to hang onto his defensive value over the next three seasons, given he's beginning his age 25 season.

Tie it all together and Barton is one of the best first basemen in the game.

Evan Brunell runs the SweetSpot Red Sox blog at Fire Brand of the American League.

Yes, by most accounts Mark McGwire was roundly cheered in St. Louis last weekend. So, what of it? The L.A. Times' Austin Knoblauch (no relation, as far as I know) thinks the fans should have held their applause:

It appears there's at least one group of supposed baseball fans who are willing to give Mark McGwire a standing ovation.

McGwire made his first public appearance at a St. Louis Cardinals promotional event Sunday to the delight of cheering fans who didn't seem to mind the 12-time All-Star cheated during his career.

--snip--

Team loyalties are a part of every sport, but there needs to be a point when a hometown hero needs to be stripped of his cape.

With his playing career tarnished, McGwire needs to build a new legacy for himself. Perhaps he can create a new life in baseball through the coaching and managerial ranks.

But until McGwire actually does something that isn't directly related to his playing days, I hope we never see anyone cheering for him like that again.

There needs to be a point when a hometown hero needs to be stripped of his cape?

Well, OK. But what is that point, exactly?

Anyway, I don't think that McGwire is particularly revered in St. Louis. Somewhere in the area, probably covered by a tarpaulin or something, is a bronze statue of Mark McGwire. It's been kept under wraps for years. If McGwire really was revered by the fans, don't you think ownership would have installed that statue outside Busch Stadium by now?

I think the reception for McGwire was about three parts support and one part courteous. You can't blame anyone for being courteous, and if you're going to indict them for their support, you'll have to indict the great majority of sports fans throughout sports history. In this country, anyway. Barry Bonds was always cheered in San Francisco, and Manny Ramirez was cheered last season upon returning from his suspension. I suppose you can assume a dollop of provincialism, too; the fans in St. Louis might be a touch less supportive if the media outside of St. Louis weren't so unforgiving.

But really, this is what we do. We forgive and support our guys, particularly if they've worked and bled and played well for us. If you think the fans in St. Louis shouldn't do that for their guy, fine. But that means you've got to hold the fans everywhere else to that same tough standard.

Earlier this week, Craig Calcaterra got Rich Gossage on the phone. As you probably know, Gossage has been fairly outspoken about the use of steroids (etc.) and Craig had an interesting question for the Goose: What would the Hall of Fame do if a current member was found to have used steroids?

Gossage wouldn't speculate about whether it would be appropriate to remove someone from the Hall of Fame. And though I didn't ask him, he volunteered that he has no idea what member, if any, could have possibly used steroids, and doesn't know one way or the other if anyone had (he wouldn't comment on the issue of Canseco's credibility).

To date, no member of the Hall has ever been de-inducted, as it were, and I could find nothing that suggests that the Hall even has a procedure for doing so. Of course, if they wanted to, the Hall could simply call a meeting of its board and make a rule in about five minutes. But let's face it: if the Football Hall of Fame hasn't taken out O.J., what are the odds that the Baseball Hall of Fame would remove a juicer?

Craig is right: the people who run the Hall can do whatever they like. The people who run the Hall of Fame listen to Major League Baseball and they listen to the living Hall of Famers. But it's a private institution that makes its own rules.

There's a new book -- I have it, but I haven't read it -- that suggests the Chicago Cubs might well have thrown at least a few games in the 1918 World Series. As it happens, none of those Cubs are in the Hall of Fame.

But what if one of them was, and a smoking gun was discovered?

There have long been rumors about shady dealings in other World Series. Ty Cobb and Tris Speaker were once investigated for throwing regular-season games. Both were officially cleared, but still ... we probably won't ever know much more about all of these things than we already know. But you never know when a damning letter might be unearthed. What if we have something close to proof that Cobb threw a game or two?

Nothing, probably.

I don't believe anyone's really got the stomach for yanking Ty Cobb's plaque from the wall. There would be a lot of talk about the mists of time and the conditions of his era, and in the end Cobb's (again, theoretical) transgressions would become just another inconvenient footnote in the game's long, sometimes sordid history.

What would the Hall of Fame do if a modern Hall of Famer was found to have gambled on baseball? Or (more likely) to have used illegal performance-enhancing drugs while those drugs were (theoretically) against Major League Baseball rules?

I don't have the foggiest idea. I've been thinking about this for two days (and trying to write this blog post for two days), and I just don't know. Usually, these things are obvious enough (in my mind, anyway) that I can rattle off something for you within an hour or so. This one's got me stumped, though.

The people who run the Hall of Fame really don't want to kick anybody out. The people who vote for the Hall of Fame have made it pretty clear that while cocaine, amphetamines, and various other controlled substances are perfectly acceptable, they're drawing the line at steroids. But what if -- and please pardon this hypothetical -- what if Rickey Henderson were to appear on a list of players who had used steroids? Henderson sailed into the Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility.

If he -- again, hypothetically -- was exposed as a "cheater" (not my word), it would create a real quandary for all the stakeholders. But I think the Hall would sit tight. Just not worth the hassle. The voters/writers might squawk, but in the end they need the Hall more than the Hall needs them. So let's say our hypothetical Man of Steal keeps his plaque. Doesn't that make it just a bit harder for voters to spurn Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro and Barry Bonds?

I'm not saying there's a complete turnaround, or that anything big happens immediately. But I think if someone in the Hall of Fame is exposed, that player will not be de-plaqued, and I think it will help some future candidates with steroids in their past.

Sorry, but since it's still only Wednesday I'm going to lead and close with a few more bites of Big Mac.

* Posnanski says it's time to forgive Mark McGwire, Bernie Miklasz had had enough of the cynics and Fungoes runs through McGwire's testimony, line by line.

* Oh, and one more thing about McGwire and Posnanski: Yesterday, Big Mac called JoePo. Just called him up, out of the blue, and they talked.

* In case yesterday's link-in-passing escaped your mouse, here's a great little primer on Ultimate Zone Rating.

* How lucky were the Yankees in 2009? According to Was Watching, pretty lucky.

* I don't know, maybe this is just for fanboys like me, but I sure dig Wezen-Ball's efforts to calculate the wins and losses of Charlie Brown's baseball team.

* This is pretty nifty: via Biz of Baseball, an interactive salary database.

* What do Hall of Fame voters undervalue and overvalue? Relative to winning baseball games? Sky Andrechek can tell you.

* I'm grateful to Craig for fisking Canseco's reaction to the big news, because it means I don't have to.

* Tangotiger points out something that I somehow missed: Bud Selig almost certainly knew that Mark McGwire was using steroids as early as 1993. Hrrrmmm.