SweetSpot: Mark Teixeira
Weekly preview: Oh, yeah, the Yankees
April, 16, 2012
Apr 16
2:12
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Remember one week ago? I know many of you wanted to kill off the Yankees and Red Sox. Both teams were 0-3 and in such dire straits that Bill Simmons had a special podcast with his buddy JackO -- a Yankees fan -- to commiserate in their pain.
Well, it's not so easy to get rid of the wicked witches of the East. The Red Sox pummeled the Rays over the weekend, scoring 31 runs in a three-game sweep in games started by David Price, Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore.
The Yankees, meanwhile, took two of three from the Angels to climb above .500, although they did miss Jered Weaver and Dan Haren while getting shut down by C.J. Wilson. (Hey, we don't want Yankees fans to get too comfortable.)
OK, in all seriousness, it's a reminder of the hysteria that's easy to ensue when a team with high expectations doesn't go 7-3 out of the gate. A similar sense of panic exists in Philadelphia, where the Phillies are 4-5 and scoring barely three runs a game. It's early, folks.
Before the Yankees and Red Sox meet this weekend, the Yankees will have an excellent opportunity to pad their win total with a four-game series against the hapless Twins, looking like a good bet early on to challenge the Astros as baseball's worst team. Don't expect much run support for Carl Pavano, who faces Freddy Garcia on Monday night on ESPN and ESPN3 (7 ET): The Twins have scored three runs or fewer in seven of their nine games.
Outside of Derek Jeter (.366, four doubles, two home runs) and Nick Swisher, most of the Yankees hitters are off to lukewarm starts. Robinson Cano has one RBI, Alex Rodriguez is hitting .222 with one home run and Mark Teixeira (a career .235 hitter in April) is off to his usual slow start with a .222 average and zero home runs.
But with four games against the Twins, look for Cano and Teixeira to enter their showdown with Boston with at least one home run on their ledger.
Series of the week
Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals, Tuesday through Thursday
Johnny Cueto (1-0, 2.25) vs. Kyle Lohse (2-0, 1.35)
Mat Latos (0-1, 5.59) vs. Jaime Garcia (1-0, 4.22)
Bronson Arroyo (0-0, 2.63) vs. Adam Wainwright (0-2, 11.42)
In some regard, the Cardinals were baseball's most impressive team through the first 10 games of the schedule. They methodically took two of three from the Brewers, Reds and Cubs, as well as beating the Marlins on Opening Day. Their plus-23 run differential is the best in the majors, as is their 57 runs scored. So far, the Cardinals' bench is shaping up as a possible strength. Matt Carpenter stepped in for the injured Lance Berkman (who should return Tuesday) and has driven in 10 runs in just 22 at-bats. Tyler Greene and Daniel Descalso provide flexibility in the infield. And so far, Yadier Molina (.353/.421/.735, three home runs) is showing his offensive growth in 2011 was for real.
The Reds have scored just 31 runs in 10 games. Outside of Joey Votto and Zack Cozart, the offense hasn't done much. I was worried about Scott Rolen's ability to produce heading into the season and Dusty Baker's cleanup man is off to a .121 start (4-for-33, no home runs, one walk). Baker has also given rookie catcher Devin Mesoraco just 12 at-bats, and Drew Stubbs is still having big issues making contact. Yes, Brandon Phillips missed some games, but there appear to be some red flags about the Reds' offense. The Reds can hardly afford to let the Cardinals put six games between them this early in the season, but that's what they're facing if St. Louis sweeps the series.
Three pitching matchups to watch
1. Monday: Roy Halladay (2-0, 0.60) vs. Tim Lincecum (0-1, 12.91, Phillies at Giants (10:15 p.m. ET)
Halladay has been terrific while Lincecum has been terrible and is coming off the shortest outing of his career on Wednesday, when he couldn't escape the third inning in Colorado. Lincecum is 4-1 with a 2.61 ERA in nine career starts against the Phillies -- teams that had better offenses than this Phillies team, of course. Wednesday's Cliff Lee-Matt Cain matchup ain't exactly chopped liver, either. Yes, I just used that phrase.
2. Wednesday: David Price (1-1, 4.82) vs. Brandon Morrow (0-0, 2.57), Rays at Blue Jays (7:07 p.m. ET)
Tampa Bay's brutal April schedule continues with a Monday morning Patriots Day affair in Boston, three in Toronto and then a bit of a reprieve with three at home against the Twins. Price is coming off a poor stint against the Red Sox in which he had issues locating his fastball and threw 83 pitches in three innings. Morrow has gone seven innings in each of first two starts, a good early sign for somebody looking to prove he can pitch 200 innings for the first time.
3. Saturday: Neftali Feliz (1-0, 2.25) vs. Justin Verlander (0-1, 2.25), Rangers at Tigers (1:05 ET)
Yes, please. The Tigers will prove to be a sterner test for Feliz than the Twins and Mariners. Feliz used his changeup successfully in seven shutout innings against the Mariners in his first start, less so on Sunday against the Twins. He's still a work in progress as a starter, and while nobody doubts his fastball, we'll see if his secondary stuff can catch up. Many still consider moving him to the rotation a bit of a risk, considering his strikeout rate as a closer in 2011 didn't exactly reflect domination (54 strikeouts in 62.1 innings). So far he has seven K's in 12 innings.
Player on the hot seat: Aramis Ramirez, Brewers
After hitting .306/.361/.510 with 26 home runs for the Cubs, the Brewers signed Ramirez to help replace Prince Fielder. So far he's hitting .114 without a big one.
Player to watch: Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
Billingsley has made two strong starts -- one run with a 15-1 strikeout-walk ratio -- raising hopes that the Dodgers will have a strong No. 2 starter behind Clayton Kershaw. Billingsley suffered through the worst season of his career in 2011 as he walked 84 batters, but made some mechanical adjustments this spring. "Success breeds confidence," pitching coach Rick Honeycutt told ESPNLA's Tony Jackson. "They go hand in hand. Right now, you're seeing him totally in control. He isn't right on target with every ball he throws, but we're not seeing that wildness. I like to call them well-thrown balls, and we are seeing a lot of well-thrown balls coming out of his hand. Those are quality pitches. He just needs to do that consistently."
Heat map of the week
Courtesy of Mark Simon and Katie Sharp of ESPN Stats and Information, we have to do a Matt Kemp heat map. Baseball's hottest hitter is just the fourth player since 1920 hitting .450 with at least six home runs and 16 RBIs through his team's first 10 games. The typical major leaguer hits a home run on every nine to 10 of the fly balls he hits, but Kemp's first nine fly balls have resulted in six home runs. He's hit the ball to the opposite field six times, resulting in five hits and four home runs. And in at-bats ending in curveballs, he's 5-for-5 with three singles, a double and a home run.
ESPN Stats & InformationFour of Matt Kemp's six home runs so far have gone to right field.
Brace Hemmelgarn/US PresswireElvis Andrus chases his man, but Denard Span says, Catch me if you can.Links: Zimmerman, Braves' rotation, Miggy
February, 23, 2012
Feb 23
5:18
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
From around the SweetSpot network ...
- Ryan Zimmerman has said he'll break off contract talks after Friday. Harper Gordek weighs in and says the Nationals are probably better off not signing him now.
- Tim Hudson might be out until May, so Ben Duronio looks at candidates for the fifth slot in the Braves' rotation.
- The Red Sox finally received their compensation for Theo Epstein ... and it's Chris Carpenter. The other one. Chip Buck has his take.
- Mark Teixeira admits that he's using more juice ... juice drinks made from fresh fruits and veggies, that is.
- Joe Janish on three ways Bobby Parnell can improve.
- Camden Depot has a scouting report -- including video -- on Ryan Ripken, son of Cal, a senior first baseman committed to the University of South Carolina.
- Predictions for 2012 from the staff at Crashburn Alley. Shockingly, all four pick the Phillies to win the NL East. (Just kidding, guys; I'll probably go with the Phillies as well.)
- Here's how the Royals' lineup looks as spring training kicks off.
- Redleg Nation is previewing the Reds position by position. Here's a look at catcher, which should be an above-average combo of rookie Devin Mesoraco and solid backup Ryan Hanigan.
- Miguel Cabrera's batting practice line of "SI OR NO? SI OR NO?" followed by a certain epitaph after launching one over the fence would make for a great T-shirt.
Position production: At the corners
January, 28, 2012
Jan 28
9:00
AM ET
By Christina Kahrl | ESPN.com
Jim McIsaac/Getty ImagesAlex Rodriguez's injury-marred year contributed to a weak group of third basemen in 2011.With any question like this you can get hung up on the differences between eras. Run-scoring environments are going to bounce around as a matter of course, and that’s before you get into the bump of the so-called "Steroids Era." If you were a fan just getting started in the late ’90s, chances are you might wind up with an inflated sense of what player performance is supposed to look like.
Happily, you can compare player performance within the context of their own season. Clay Davenport, an old colleague from Baseball Prospectus, cranks this data for every season. We can get a snapshot of where performance has gone at each position by using his Equivalent Average, or EqA. Equivalent Average isn’t the only stat you can employ; Clay scales production to batting average, with .260 defined as average.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at performances from the eight major positions over the past 25 years. We’ll start with the premium offensive positions, the four corners, from 1987 to the present:
ESPN.comFour-corner EqA performance at the plate, 1987-2011Keep in mind, .260 is average for every season, so the year-to-year variations are going to refer back to that baseline. We can already draw a few broad conclusions -- some of which are pretty much accepted wisdom, but some prove slightly surprising.
Runs come from first base. This might seem obvious, but that’s especially the case now. It hasn’t always been that way. As you can see from the chart, left and right fielders have sometimes approached the first basemen, but that usually coincides with bad years for first basemen. But these days, first base is the game’s premium offense position.
If you look back further, that picture gets a lot more complicated. During the ’70s, first, right and left were equally important offensive positions, and in 1982 the four corners and center field were separated by just eight points. That changed in the late ’80s, as the standard for production at first base now winds up north of a .280 EqA year after year.
This higher standard has survived two expansions and the steroid era. This year Mark Teixeira was below average despite hitting 39 homers. Admittedly, it was a down year for him: he posted a .281 EqA compared to an MLB average of .283. In contrast, in 1991 Carlos Quintana defined adequacy at first -- if you’re from outside Boston and have forgotten him entirely, it’s probably just as well, but he was a nice OBP guy without much power.
What does that mean today? Well, this goes a little bit towards what Dave Schoenfield was writing about as far as Albert Pujols ranking as the top player in the game for so long. It also means that while teams like the Rangers have been leaving runs on the table by playing Mitch Moreland, you can understand why the Red Sox traded for Adrian Gonzalez while the Angels landed Pujols. Credit the Rays for keeping up with the other big-money contenders by bringing Carlos Pena back (.292 last year).
Right field is where outfield stars play. This might take us back to the days of Babe Ruth or Hank Aaron as opposed to Ted Williams or Barry Bonds. While the averages for the two positions have balanced out over time, right field is the much stronger position these days. Some of that has is because of a matter of preference: Lance Berkman played right for the Cardinals not because he’s a good right fielder, but because he’d help them score a ton of runs. Jose Bautista might be a fantasy league’s perfect third baseman, but the Blue Jays keep bumping him back to the outfield. Add in breakthrough seasons for Mike Stanton and Matt Joyce and even nice bounce-backs from Justin Upton and Jeff Francoeur, and you wind up with the game’s reigning premium outfield slot.
Left field is down. Way down. As you can see, the last 25 years have been pretty up and down for the left-side corners. The average for left fielders in the era of division play is .277, but they haven’t reached that mark since 2004.
The sad state of left-field offensive production has already been debated plenty among statheads. Is it an affordable risk on offense at a time when teams are more defense-conscious than ever before? Or is it a case of reaping what you sow when you make a point putting guys like Juan Pierre in your everyday lineup? It might reflect an industry-wide choice to employ better defenders at the position, sacrificing some offense. But in other ways it might also reflect how left field has become almost a garbage-time position for teams that stow their backup center fielder or a sputtering veteran holdover. Teams now lack the roster space to platoon or mix and match on offense the way that they could before the seven-man bullpen became fashionable.
Whatever your take, offensive production from left fielders is down at its lowest point in 25 years, matching 1997 for punchlessness with a .268 EqA. That isn’t a coincidence; much like the present, 1997 featured a lot of transition in left fields around the majors, with guys like Gregg Jefferies, Wil Cordero and B.J. Surhoff playing their first full seasons in the outfield. Moises Alou got hurt (again), Bernard Gilkey’s career started imploding, and Greg Vaughn and Ron Gant had the worst years of their careers.
Fast-forward to the present, and you find your share of setback seasons (Carl Crawford and Delmon Young). You also see a lot of flat-out awful from self-inflicted bad ideas, like Raul Ibanez in the last year of his contract while Vernon Wells, Carlos Lee and Alfonso Soriano marked time on huge deals that won’t go away soon enough.
Against that, you’ve got the guys we might call sops to the speed-and-defense crowd, or what I think of as the next-gen Dave Collins solutions: Brett Gardner, Jose Tabata, Michael Brantley, Sam Fuld, Pierre and more. They range from useful OBP sources to significantly less so, but not one of them is going to be Tim Raines, let alone Crawford. Last year Gerardo Parra had the best season among this group (.280 EqA); he also stands to lose playing time in 2012 to Jason Kubel, a guy who’s a much more conventional corner-outfield selection.
Third Base is hurting. If you’re a student of baseball history, you already know that back in the Deadball Era second base was more of a high-offense position than the hot corner. That changed in the 1920s with the introduction of the livelier ball, but every once in a while you get a year where you’ve got a great group of second baseman and a weak crew of third-base vets. That was very much the case in the late ’80 and early ’90s (thanks in part to guys like Roberto Alomar, Ryne Sandberg, Robby Thompson, Lou Whitaker and Julio Franco), but after the Marlins-Rockies expansion in ’93 second base fell back again. But now we’re at this same point again, where third base has slipped behind second base, if only barely (.262 EqA to .261).
With the declining standards reflected by Scott Rolen getting named to an All-Star team despite a lousy season, finding merely competent options for third base isn’t as easy as it sounds. Alex Rodriguez and Chipper Jones certainly aren’t getting any younger.
You can hope this will change for the better with the arrivals of touted prospects like Brett Lawrie, Mike Moustakas and Lonnie Chisenhall, but we’ve also seen a few major third-base prospect flops: Pedro Alvarez or Andy LaRoche, anyone? That’s why journeymen like Casey Blake, Ryan Roberts or Jack Hannahan get opportunities to stick around.
If anything, the state of third base these days speaks volumes about the Tigers' decision to move Miguel Cabrera across to the diamond after signing Prince Fielder. As Mark Simon notes, the defensive penalty might be steep, but reviewing this data suggests that there's a major competitive advantage to be gained relative to the competition, because they're making room for two superstar bats in the lineup: Cabrera with his career .315 EqA, and Fielder with his .313. The Cardinals just ran up a flag after risking their defense at the corners with Berkman in right, so you can't blame the Tigers for trying to do likewise.
Tomorrow, we’ll look at the up-the-middle positions. If you’re one of those people who think finding good help at shortstop or catcher is hard to find these days, you might have a surprise to look forward to.
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.
You probably didn’t notice that the Pittsburgh Pirates recently signed first baseman and outfielder Nick Evans to a minor league contract within the past two weeks. There wasn’t much reason to do so. Evans was nondescript with the bat, hitting .256 with four home runs and 25 RBIs for the Mets in 2011.
But Evans did something within his limited time that was significant to those of us trying to learn about advanced defensive stats. It struck me as being the defensive equivalent to hitting .400 over 150-or-so at-bats. In 337 2/3 innings, the equivalent of 37 ½ nine-inning games at first base, Evans finished with seven defensive runs saved. That’s a good number for a first baseman. It tied him for most in the majors for the season with Angels first baseman Mark Trumbo.
It’s also significantly better than what the Pirates got from their first basemen last season. Theirs ranked 28th in the majors, costing the team 11 runs.
Defensive runs saved for first basemen calculates the ability to turn batted balls into outs and the success at getting outs on bunts.
Evans scored well primarily because he did well handling the 46 balls that were hit into his “zone,” with “zone” defined as the areas on the field in which first basemen turned batted balls into an out more than half of the time.
Evans’ revised zone rating was 84.8% (of the 46 balls in his zone, he converted 39 into outs).
That rate was tied for fifth-best among the 46 first basemen that played at least 300 innings at the position.
It was within striking distance of MLB leader Todd Helton (85.9 percent) and considerably ahead of Evans’ crosstown counterpart, Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira (77.0 percent). For every 46 balls hit into his zone last season, Teixeira got 35 outs, four fewer than Evans did in his (admittedly small) sample.
The way that Baseball Info Solutions, which calculates a plus-minus rating for every fielder, looks at it, they divide batted balls into three areas for infielders -- balls hit to the left and right of the area where most outs are recorded, and balls hit directly where a first baseman most often records outs.
Evans was a plus-six on balls hit into the latter area, meaning he was six plays better than the average first baseman. That factored significantly into Evans’ defensive runs saved rating, as did his defense on bunts, which was similarly above average.
Evans’ success jibed with that which he’d had as a minor leaguer as well.
The researchers at Baseball Info Solutions, whose founder John Dewan came up with the defensive runs saved metric, acknowledge that the stat isn’t necessarily the perfect measure of a first baseman’s skills.
There are many other components to first base defense (a recent article in the blog “DRays Bay” attempted to put a value on each), the most recognizable to fans being the ability to handle throws from one’s teammates.
So we dug a little deeper.
In addition to coming up with sabermetric stats, Baseball Info Solutions hires “video scouts” (for the most part, former high school and college players) to chart games from television viewing, tagging notable plays into more than 80 subcategories of “Good Fielding Plays” (GFPs) and “Defensive Misplays & Errors.” (DM&Es)
There are tightly defined rules, devised by sabermetrician Bill James, to what constitutes a GFP and a DM.
First basemen were credited with just over 2,000 Good Fielding Plays and just under 1,100 Defensive Misplays & Errors in 2011, the ratio of good to bad being about 1.9-to-1.
In his time at first base, Evans’ ratio of GFPs to DMs was 24-to-5, or almost 5-to-1.
The reason for this was that in the eyes of multiple viewers (video scouts rotate so not to watch the same team or player too often), Evans was adept at a key aspect to his position not measured by Defensive Runs Saved or UZR/150- catching throws.
Evans was credited with 11 GFPs for “handling a difficult throw” (usually either by scooping it out of the dirt or coming off the base) in which the Mets got the batter out, and four GFPs for “catches wild throw,” meaning that he prevented a batter or baserunner from gaining an extra base by coming off the bag to block/catch an errant throw.
Samples of Evans handiwork in this area can be seen at these three links.
Evans was tagged for only one DM&E for “failing to catch the throw” from a teammate. His ratio of good-to-bad plays was 15-to-1. By comparison, the average ratio for a first baseman on these plays was 5-to-1. Reds first baseman Joey Votto, who won the NL’s Gold Glove, had 29 GFPs and 10 DM&Es related to handling throws.
We’re not saying that Evans can maintain the sort of success from his small sample over a full season.
But for the Pirates, who also showed a defensive-minded commitment with the signing of shortstop Clint Barmes, it’s an interesting sort of gamble that could be worth watching more closely as the 2012 season unfolds
Reds should hold on to Joey Votto
November, 11, 2011
11/11/11
12:19
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Jeff Hanisch/US PresswireThe Reds have a decision to make with star first baseman Joey Votto, who turned 28 in September.On one level, it makes sense. When the Texas Rangers traded Mark Teixeira to the Atlanta Braves in 2007 -- with Teixiera still more than a year from free agency -- it was a deal that helped rebuild the franchise, as Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz and Matt Harrison became key contributors on two World Series teams.
Unfortunately, that deal is the exception rather than the rule (see the list below of superstars traded in recent years with at least one full season until they hit free agency). Here's the thing: Superstars are unbelievably hard to come by; you need them to win pennants and World Series titles; the goal of every team should be to acquire a superstar, not trade one away. In dealing for prospects, you are assuming all the risk (at least in talent acquisition; you do get an immediate financial savings, of course). Trading for prospects might seem like a good investment, but you are often instead left with a bunch of subprime players.
The Reds had a disappointing season in 2011, but they still have the same talent core that won the NL Central in 2010. Yes, they could use a starting pitcher and maybe Votto would bring one in return. But is Yonder Alonso really ready to fill Votto's shoes? Or was his .330/.398/.545 line in 98 plate appearances a fluke? The Reds' best chanc of winning in 2012 -- and I do believe they have a chance -- isn't trading Votto, but hoping for improvement from their starting rotation. The Reds don't need more young players -- they have Jay Bruce and Alonso and Aroldis Chapman and Devin Mesoraco and Drew Stubbs and Yasmani Grandal in the minors. Trading Votto for a pitcher isn't going to help if Homer Bailey and Edinson Volquez and Mike Leake don't improve anyway.
Plus, there's this scenario: If the goal is to trade Votto and hope you get lucky that one of the prospects develops into a star, wouldn't the Reds just end up facing the same scenario? The odds that you acquire three prospects, each of whom develops into a good player before he starts making big money, is extremely slim. Among other reasons, if those prospects were sure things, they wouldn't be getting traded.
So if I'm the Reds, I keep Votto. I do what the Brewers did in 2011 with Prince Fielder and the Rays in 2010 with Carl Crawford. Those clubs kept their impending free agents and won division titles. You need stars to win pennants. Joey Votto is the Reds' star.
* * * *
Here are some of those superstar deals and why I consider trading Votto for prospects a risk for the Reds.
Adrian Gonzalez (Padres to Red Sox) -- Anthony Rizzo, Casey Kelly, Reymond Fuentes. Rizzo hit .331 with 26 home runs in 93 games in Triple-A, but just .141 in 49 big league games. He's just 22, so he has time. Kelly was actually the top prospect in the deal, but he's yet to harness is good stuff into productive results, posting a 3.98 ERA in Double-A with mediocre pheriphals. Fuentes is a speedy center fielder who hit .275 without power in Class A. The Padres' payroll actually increased in 2011 and their attendance actually remained steady compared to 2010 -- but it's down over 600,000 from 2007.
Zack Greinke (Brewers to Royals) -- Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffries, Lorenzo Cain, Jake Odorizzi (plus the subtraction of Yuniesky Betancourt). Again, too soon to evaluate. If Escobar moves beyond a good-field, no-hit shortstop and Cain develops into the team's starting center fielder, it could be a decent return for the Royals.
Cliff Lee (Phillies to Mariners) -- Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, J.C. Ramirez. None have reached the majors, although Aumount has closer potential. (And the Mariners later traded Lee to the Rangers, they helped a division rival reach its first World Series. Even though Lee didn't stay with Texas, that initial World Series trip helps bring in more fans, which adds more revenue long-term, and makes the Rangers more attractive for free agents. Why help a division rival? And Justin Smoak -- .227 career average -- has been so unimpressive, some think the Mariners should go after Votto this offseason.)
Roy Halladay (Blue Jays to Phillies) -- Kyle Drabek, Travis d'Arnaud, Michael Taylor. This one might yet work out for the Jays. Drabek was the top prospect in the deal, and while it's too early to write him off, he was terrible as a rookie (6.06 ERA) and even worse in Triple-A (7.44). But d'Arnaud is a promising catching prospect who hit .311/.371/.542 at Double-A and the Jays eventually turned Taylor into the talented, toolsy Anthony Gose (16 home runs, 70 steals in Double-A, but 154 strikeouts).
Cliff Lee (Indians to Phillies) -- Carlos Carrasco, Jason Knapp, Jason Donald, Lou Marson. The Indians traded Lee with one and a half years before he hit free agency. They don't have much to show yet, although maybe Carrasco will develop beyond a No. 5 starter.
Matt Holliday (Rockies to A's) -- Huston Street, Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith. The Rockies traded Holliday to the A's after the 2008 season. They even won the wild card in 2009, but slipped back to 73 wins in 2011. Holliday eventually signed a seven-year, $120 million contract with the Cardinals through 2016. The Rockies signed Gonzalez to a seven-year, $80 million extension from 2011 through 2017, and also paid Street $19 million from 2009 to 2011, and owe him $7.5 million in 2012 plus a $9 million player option for 2013.
So, did this trade work out for the Rockies? The tally so far, from 2009 through 2011:
Holliday: 15.2 WAR (Baseball-Reference), $56.1 million in salary
Gonzalez/Street: 12.6 WAR, $24.2 million in salary (and signing bonus), one playoff season
FanGraphs estimates that one extra win on the free-agent market is currently worth about $4.5 million, so in theory the A's/Cardinals have overpaid by $20.2 million for their addition 2.6 wins of estimated value in comparison to Gonzalez/Street.
Future commitments:
Holliday: Five seasons, $86 million (assuming team doesn't pick up 2017 option)
Gonzalez/Street: Eight seasons, $93.5 million (assuming Street picks up 2013 option)
So far, the Rockies have saved about $32 million in payroll with a slight decrease in overall value. Long-term, they'll spend a little more money but spread out over more seasons. The question is if Gonzalez is the star player of 2010 or merely the solid starter of 2011. At worst, the deal is probably a wash as Holliday should decline as he ages, and a potential huge plus for the Rockies if CarGo has more years like 2010.
Johan Santana (Twins to Mets) -- Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey. A disaster for the Twins. They missed the playoffs by one game in 2008 (losing a tie-breaker playoff to the White Sox). Who knows, if they'd kept Santana they might have won the World Series.
Miguel Cabrera (Marlins to Tigers) -- Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Burke Badenhop, Eulogio De La Cruz, Mike Rabelo, Dallas Trahern. The Marlins have made some good deals but this was not one of them. (Dontrelle Willis was also traded to Detroit in the deal, although that was the best part of the trade for Florida.)
Mark Teixeira (Rangers to Braves) -- Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Beau Jones. The granddaddy that all small-market teams hope to emulate. I think it's important to note that the Rangers were in a different state in 2007 than the Reds are now -- they were on their way to an 87-loss season when Teixeira was traded, with their rotation compiling a depressing 5.50 ERA. As much as this trade helped -- especially with Harrison's emergence in 2011 -- it was the rebuilding of the rotation that turned the Rangers into a World Series team.
The day after: Yankees postscript
October, 7, 2011
10/07/11
2:27
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
I spent last night watching the postgame coverage on YES. I listened to Yankees fans calling in to sports-talk radio as I drove in to work this morning. I have the Mike Francesa show on YES on right now as I write this. Love the Yankees or hate the Yankees, the day after they're eliminated from the postseason is always one of the more interesting days of the year: The overanalysis, the stunned shock of defeat, the placing of blame on Alex Rodriguez. As Yankees broadcaster Michael Kay said on Mike & Mike about Game 5, "You couldn't find a person in New York who thought the Yankees had a chance to lose that game. ... Everything was lined up for the Yankees to win, it just was."
OK, some thoughts on all this, the 10th time in 11 seasons that will end without a World Series pennant flying over Yankee Stadium, the seventh time in eight years that ends without the Yankees making a trip to the World Series.
1. I didn't quite understand why everybody thought this was such a sure win for the Yankees. Did I miss the memo where Ivan Nova had suddenly turned into Bob Gibson? Do people realize this is baseball, where anything can one happen in one game? You could have put the Houston Astros out there and they would have had a chance to win. Plus, the dismissing of Doug Fister was a little embarrassing. It's easy to argue that Fister is a better pitcher than Nova and certainly not inconceivable that he could outpitch Nova. In analytical terms, the game was a toss-up.
2. You can extend that analogy one step further: Not enough fans understand that the baseball playoffs are a crapshoot. Since 1990, you know how many teams with the best regular-season record have won the World Series? Three -- the '98 Yankees, '07 Red Sox and '09 Yankees. If you make the playoffs, you essentially have a 1-in-4 chance of reaching the World Series. If you get to the World Series, you have 1-in-2 chance of winning. So if you make the playoffs every season you should win a World Series once every eight years. In their past eight trips to the postseason, the Yankees have reached two World Series and won one. Exactly what the odds would predict.
3. Of course, the current Yankees suffer in comparison to the 1996-2000 squad that captured four World Series titles in five years. What that team did was simply mind-boggling, going 46-15 in the postseason over a five-year span ... that's a .754 winning percentage, which is higher than the 1927 Yankees. That kind of run will never happen again. It can't. It just defies the laws of probability and postseason baseball. Since 2001, the Yankees have gone a still-impressive 48-43 in the postseason, but it's led to just one championship. (There's a comparison here to be made with the 1991-2005 Braves. In this ESPN Insider piece, Dan Szymborski reported that given their opponents, the Braves' postseason record of 63-62 was only one game worse than their expected record of 64-61.)
4. Let's not forget that the Yankees actually outscored the Tigers in the series by 11 runs. Of course, playoff series aren't determined on aggregate.
5. Alex Rodriguez ... look, you can argue that he shouldn't have been hitting cleanup. That would be the major question regarding Joe Girardi's managing in the series. Yankee fans love to bash A-Rod, of course, and it's somewhat understandable why. Here are his postseason averages since joining the Yankees:
2004 -- .320
2005 -- .133
2006 -- .071
2007 -- .267
2009 -- .365
2010 -- .219
2011 -- .111
Add it up and his overall postseason line with the Yankees isn't as bad as you think, however: .260/.388/.480, with 10 home runs and 33 RBIs in 53 games. He's hardly the one who should be "blamed," however. Here's how some of the Yankees did with runners in scoring position this series:
Derek Jeter: 1-for-8
Curtis Granderson: 1-for-4
Nick Swisher: 1-for-5
Russell Martin: 0-for-3
Mark Teixeira: 0-for-3
Alex Rodriguez: 0-for-5.
By the way, I'm not quite sure why Teixeira seems to escape criticism. His career postseason line (including one series with the Angels) is an abysmal .207/.315/.322, with just three home runs and 13 RBIs in 31 games. Swisher is a .169 postseason hitter in 38 games, with just six RBIs (he's 1-for-31 in his postseason career with runners in scoring position). The blame can be spread around.
6. You can't really fault Girardi too much. You can question the odd Eric Chavez pinch-hitting move for Brett Gardner in Game 3 and I thought his handling of the bullpen in Game 5 was a little questionable. Like pretty much every manager today, Girardi gets too locked into roles: David Robertson in the eighth, Mariano Rivera in the ninth. I know Ivan Nova's injury made things a bit more difficult, but I didn't like the idea of using CC Sabathia unless absolutely forced to. He brought in Sabathia to face the top of the Detroit lineup in the fifth inning when the Yankees trailed 2-0. Austin Jackson doubled and then after two strikeouts, he intentionally walked Miguel Cabrera. I think there were two better options as that inning unfurled: (1) Bring in Rafael Soriano to start the inning in the first place, try and get two innings from him, and then two from Robertson and then Rivera; or (2) once Sabathia had put two runners on base, bring in Robertson. What are you waiting for? I know it's CC Sabathia, but he was pitching on two days' rest. You cannot afford to allow any more runs at the point and Robertson was terrific all season. You have to manage Game 5 differently, and in my book, that meant getting as many innings as possible from Robertson and Rivera.
7. The Rob Thomson hold on A-Rod: Absolutely the right call. After the watching the replay again this morning, Rodriguez would have been out by 15 feet. Good decision by Thomson not to run the team out of a big inning.
8. For all the questions of "What will the Yankees do next?" the answer is: Not much. I expect the whole lineup will return, with the exception of Jesus Montero taking over the DH role from Jorge Posada. The bullpen is set with Boone Logan, Soriano, Robertson and Mo. A-Rod will be a year older and maybe a year more injury-prone (he's missed 150 games over the past four seasons and I wonder if we can ever expect him to play 150 games injury-free again). Jeter is a year older. Swisher will be 31. Teixeira will turn 32 and his OPS has declined three seasons in a row. And the rotation ... well, let's see if CC opts out of his contract and go from there. No doubt the pressure will be on GM Brian Cashman to re-sign Sabathia, and maybe go after free agent C.J. Wilson or swing a trade for another rotation anchor.
9. Anyway, it was a fun, interesting series. Did the better team win? Maybe, maybe not. I certainly don't buy the argument that the Yankees should have won the series and Game 5. There is no should in postseason baseball.
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.
OK, some thoughts on all this, the 10th time in 11 seasons that will end without a World Series pennant flying over Yankee Stadium, the seventh time in eight years that ends without the Yankees making a trip to the World Series.
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Kathy WillensRookie starter Ivan Nova gave up first-inning homers to Don Kelly and Delmon Young in Game 5.
AP Photo/Kathy WillensRookie starter Ivan Nova gave up first-inning homers to Don Kelly and Delmon Young in Game 5.2. You can extend that analogy one step further: Not enough fans understand that the baseball playoffs are a crapshoot. Since 1990, you know how many teams with the best regular-season record have won the World Series? Three -- the '98 Yankees, '07 Red Sox and '09 Yankees. If you make the playoffs, you essentially have a 1-in-4 chance of reaching the World Series. If you get to the World Series, you have 1-in-2 chance of winning. So if you make the playoffs every season you should win a World Series once every eight years. In their past eight trips to the postseason, the Yankees have reached two World Series and won one. Exactly what the odds would predict.
3. Of course, the current Yankees suffer in comparison to the 1996-2000 squad that captured four World Series titles in five years. What that team did was simply mind-boggling, going 46-15 in the postseason over a five-year span ... that's a .754 winning percentage, which is higher than the 1927 Yankees. That kind of run will never happen again. It can't. It just defies the laws of probability and postseason baseball. Since 2001, the Yankees have gone a still-impressive 48-43 in the postseason, but it's led to just one championship. (There's a comparison here to be made with the 1991-2005 Braves. In this ESPN Insider piece, Dan Szymborski reported that given their opponents, the Braves' postseason record of 63-62 was only one game worse than their expected record of 64-61.)
4. Let's not forget that the Yankees actually outscored the Tigers in the series by 11 runs. Of course, playoff series aren't determined on aggregate.
5. Alex Rodriguez ... look, you can argue that he shouldn't have been hitting cleanup. That would be the major question regarding Joe Girardi's managing in the series. Yankee fans love to bash A-Rod, of course, and it's somewhat understandable why. Here are his postseason averages since joining the Yankees:
2004 -- .320
2005 -- .133
2006 -- .071
2007 -- .267
2009 -- .365
2010 -- .219
2011 -- .111
Add it up and his overall postseason line with the Yankees isn't as bad as you think, however: .260/.388/.480, with 10 home runs and 33 RBIs in 53 games. He's hardly the one who should be "blamed," however. Here's how some of the Yankees did with runners in scoring position this series:
Derek Jeter: 1-for-8
Curtis Granderson: 1-for-4
Nick Swisher: 1-for-5
Russell Martin: 0-for-3
Mark Teixeira: 0-for-3
Alex Rodriguez: 0-for-5.
By the way, I'm not quite sure why Teixeira seems to escape criticism. His career postseason line (including one series with the Angels) is an abysmal .207/.315/.322, with just three home runs and 13 RBIs in 31 games. Swisher is a .169 postseason hitter in 38 games, with just six RBIs (he's 1-for-31 in his postseason career with runners in scoring position). The blame can be spread around.
6. You can't really fault Girardi too much. You can question the odd Eric Chavez pinch-hitting move for Brett Gardner in Game 3 and I thought his handling of the bullpen in Game 5 was a little questionable. Like pretty much every manager today, Girardi gets too locked into roles: David Robertson in the eighth, Mariano Rivera in the ninth. I know Ivan Nova's injury made things a bit more difficult, but I didn't like the idea of using CC Sabathia unless absolutely forced to. He brought in Sabathia to face the top of the Detroit lineup in the fifth inning when the Yankees trailed 2-0. Austin Jackson doubled and then after two strikeouts, he intentionally walked Miguel Cabrera. I think there were two better options as that inning unfurled: (1) Bring in Rafael Soriano to start the inning in the first place, try and get two innings from him, and then two from Robertson and then Rivera; or (2) once Sabathia had put two runners on base, bring in Robertson. What are you waiting for? I know it's CC Sabathia, but he was pitching on two days' rest. You cannot afford to allow any more runs at the point and Robertson was terrific all season. You have to manage Game 5 differently, and in my book, that meant getting as many innings as possible from Robertson and Rivera.
7. The Rob Thomson hold on A-Rod: Absolutely the right call. After the watching the replay again this morning, Rodriguez would have been out by 15 feet. Good decision by Thomson not to run the team out of a big inning.
8. For all the questions of "What will the Yankees do next?" the answer is: Not much. I expect the whole lineup will return, with the exception of Jesus Montero taking over the DH role from Jorge Posada. The bullpen is set with Boone Logan, Soriano, Robertson and Mo. A-Rod will be a year older and maybe a year more injury-prone (he's missed 150 games over the past four seasons and I wonder if we can ever expect him to play 150 games injury-free again). Jeter is a year older. Swisher will be 31. Teixeira will turn 32 and his OPS has declined three seasons in a row. And the rotation ... well, let's see if CC opts out of his contract and go from there. No doubt the pressure will be on GM Brian Cashman to re-sign Sabathia, and maybe go after free agent C.J. Wilson or swing a trade for another rotation anchor.
9. Anyway, it was a fun, interesting series. Did the better team win? Maybe, maybe not. I certainly don't buy the argument that the Yankees should have won the series and Game 5. There is no should in postseason baseball.
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.
Tigers shock Yankees in dramatic Game 5
October, 7, 2011
10/07/11
12:12
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
I was sure Alex Rodriguez was going to pop one out.
I was pretty sure Mark Teixeira was going to pop one out.
I knew Nick Swisher was going to knock one over the short porch in right field, probably down the line and into the first row.
That's what we expect from the New York Yankees, isn't it?
When the Yankees asked Joaquin Benoit to remove the big bandage that covered a zit or mosquito bite or whatever had infected his cheek like a small alien, you knew it was coming: Benoit would be rattled, he'd be thinking about exposing his sore to a national TV audience more than throwing strikes and the Yankees would win another big October game.
Band-Aid Gate. We all saw it coming.
And it almost did. Curtis Granderson reached out on a 3-2 pitch off the plate and looped a liner into right field to move Derek Jeter to second base. Robinson Cano hit a dribbler to Benoit's right that he stabbed at and somehow missed to load the bases. Bringing up Rodriguez. He just missed a 1-1, 95 mph fastball, fouling it straight back. He laid off a low changeup. Benoit came back with another changeup, a fantastic one that dove inside, an unhittable pitch. A-Rod missed it, swinging over the top. The fans booed as he walked back to the dugout. Sometimes it's not easy being the $275 million cleanup hitter.
But Teixeira walked on five pitches. Tigers 3, Yankees 2.
Nothing beats the tension of postseason baseball, especially in Yankee Stadium, with a visiting team trying to pull off the upset, the fans on their feet, too nervous to cheer or boo, it seemed. Maybe we've seen too many ballparks with fans waving towels. Maybe we just haven't seen enough Game 5s or Game 7s in recent years. But this felt like the most pressure-filled October moment in a long time.
Swisher struck out on a 2-2, 96 mph fastball.
Tigers fans exhaled for the first time in 12 minutes.
Benoit had needed 23 pitches to get two outs. The Tigers still needed six more.
Tension? It was punishment for fans on both sides, 166 games of big wins, big home runs and big comebacks, all down to two innings of October baseball. This is why we watch those games when it's 48 degrees and drizzling in April, why we watch those 3-hour games that move slower than a slug in the sun, meaningless games against the Royals or Twins in June. To get here. To six more outs.
As Jeter stepped in with two outs and Brett Gardner on first base in the eighth, Benoit had thrown 36 pitches. He hadn't thrown 37 pitches in a game all season. You can't make that kind of stuff up. On Benoit's 37th pitch, Gardner took off, Jeter took his classic inside-out swing ... Don Kelly took a step or two back, that right-field wall at Yankee Stadium that seems like it was built for wiffleball looming just a few feet behind him ... it looked like it had a chance ... fans reaching over, trying to pull a Jeffrey Maier ... the ball dropping into Kelly's glove.
So of course it came down to Jose Valverde, the man who said the series wouldn't return to New York. All he had to do was retire Granderson, Cano and Rodriguez. The big pitch was a 3-2 fastball to Granderson that he popped up to left. Cano lined softly to center. A-Rod swung through a 94 mph fastball. Game over, Tigers move on, Yankees go home, A-Rod walks off to more boos, the fans not caring that he was playing with a bad knee or that he wasn't the only Yankee to come up short in this series.
* * * *
Three big moments in this game:
1. Home runs from Don Kelly and Delmon Young in the first inning. I criticized Jim Leyland for hitting Kelly second. As we say though: You gotta make the plays, and Don Kelly came through. Kudos.
2. Yanking Ivan Nova after two innings essentially forced Joe Girardi to use CC Sabathia. I didn't like the idea of using CC, and he didn't pitch well. He got four outs but gave up two hits, two walks and the run that proved to be the winning run. Of the 37 pitches he threw, just 19 were for strikes.
3. Yankees third-base coach Rob Thomson held up Rodriguez at third base on Jorge Posada's one-out single in the fourth. Rodriguez had reached the bag right as Austin Jackson picked up the ball. Jackson has a decent arm and threw out eight runners on the season. It probably would have been a bang-bang play, especially with Rodriguez not at 100 percent speed. Tough call for Thomson, but I think he made the right decision, not wanting to potentially ruin a big inning. Russell Martin popped out to first and Gardner fouled out to leave the bases loaded.
* * * *
During his postgame news conference, Leyland said it perfectly: "This will be a game I'll remember the rest of my life." He pointed out he's been on both sides of it. Asked about Kelly's home run, he said, "Sometimes things just work out for you." He then praised Kelly, said it couldn't have happened to a better kid and nearly got choked up, knowing that home run will be with Kelly for the rest of his life.
And that's October baseball. Unsung heroes, big strikeouts, big hits, tension, pain, suffering and ... joy.
And memories. Love the memories.
You can follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.
Mark Teixeira is absolutely right
September, 1, 2011
9/01/11
4:52
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Via Aaron Gleeman at Hardball Talk, after Wednesday's Yankees-Red Sox game that lasted 3 hours, 16 minutes, Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira told the New York Times, "It’s brutal. I can’t stand playing a nine-inning game in four hours. It’s not baseball. I don’t even know how to describe it. If I was a fan, why would I want to come watch people sitting around and talking back and forth, going to the mound, 2-0 sliders in the dirt? Four-hour games can’t be fun for a fan, either."
What's funny about Teixeira's comments is that Wednesday's game was actually one of the shorter Yankees-Red Sox games this season. Here are the times of all their games: 3:16, 3:59, 4:15 (for a 3-2 nine-inning game), 3:25, 3:11, 3:23, 3:24, 3:41, 3:26, 3:35, 2:58, 3:26 and 3:06.
I wrote about Josh Beckett taking his sweet time between pitchers earlier this season and he continues to receive flak for his pace. Indeed, only seven of his 26 games this season have ended in less than three hours. Of course, Beckett isn't the only pitcher who works slow, so baseball would need to review rule 8.04 (which states a pitcher has 12 seconds to deliver the ball once the batter is in the box) on a league-wide basis this offseason.
Part of me would be excited for another postseason showdown between the two clubs, something we haven't enjoyed since 2004. Part of me fears the games ending at 12:30 a.m. ET, thanks to a likely slower pace of game and added time between commercials (not to mention a later starting time).
To be fair, I think baseball gets some unfair criticism for the length of its games. NFL games last at least three hours and college football games routinely approach four hours. And just like baseball, football is full of guys standing around for 40 seconds and then playing for five. So all the hand-wringing about baseball's pace is mostly a bunch of nonsense.
But there's no denying a Yankees-Red Sox game last longer than your average major league contest. So if they do meet in the playoffs, get ready, Bud Selig: The baseball haters will no doubt come out in full force.
What's funny about Teixeira's comments is that Wednesday's game was actually one of the shorter Yankees-Red Sox games this season. Here are the times of all their games: 3:16, 3:59, 4:15 (for a 3-2 nine-inning game), 3:25, 3:11, 3:23, 3:24, 3:41, 3:26, 3:35, 2:58, 3:26 and 3:06.
I wrote about Josh Beckett taking his sweet time between pitchers earlier this season and he continues to receive flak for his pace. Indeed, only seven of his 26 games this season have ended in less than three hours. Of course, Beckett isn't the only pitcher who works slow, so baseball would need to review rule 8.04 (which states a pitcher has 12 seconds to deliver the ball once the batter is in the box) on a league-wide basis this offseason.
Part of me would be excited for another postseason showdown between the two clubs, something we haven't enjoyed since 2004. Part of me fears the games ending at 12:30 a.m. ET, thanks to a likely slower pace of game and added time between commercials (not to mention a later starting time).
To be fair, I think baseball gets some unfair criticism for the length of its games. NFL games last at least three hours and college football games routinely approach four hours. And just like baseball, football is full of guys standing around for 40 seconds and then playing for five. So all the hand-wringing about baseball's pace is mostly a bunch of nonsense.
But there's no denying a Yankees-Red Sox game last longer than your average major league contest. So if they do meet in the playoffs, get ready, Bud Selig: The baseball haters will no doubt come out in full force.
Deadline drama: Reviewing 2008-10
July, 25, 2011
7/25/11
12:42
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
The trade deadline is fun, full of rumors and feverishly hyped, tweeted and talked about. But how much impact does it actually have?
Here's a more detailed look at the past three seasons.
2010
AL playoff teams on July 31
Yankees
White Sox
Rangers
Rays (wild card)
Next closest: Twins -0.5, Red Sox -5.5.
Final playoff teams
Rays
Twins
Rangers
Yankees (wild card)
Big moves: Rangers picked up Cliff Lee in early July; White Sox get Edwin Jackson; Twins add Matt Capps; Angels acquire Dan Haren.
What happened: The Twins went 36-22 the rest of the season to win the Central by six games. Capps went 2-0 with 16 saves and the Twins won both games he had a blown save anyway. Lee wasn't great for the Rangers in the regular season (4-6, 3.98), but they won the division by nine games over Oakland.
Impact: None. Capps was a nice pickup, but it was mostly an improvement in the starting rotation that spurred the Twins in August and September. The Red Sox curiously remained quiet and never got in the race.
NL playoff teams on July 31
Braves
Cardinals
Padres
Giants (wild card)
Next closest: Reds -0.5, Phillies -3.5
Final playoff teams
Phillies
Reds
Giants
Braves (wild card)
Big moves: Phillies get Roy Oswalt, Dodgers get Ted Lilly from Cubs, Padres acquire Ryan Ludwick.
What happened: Oswalt was superb as the Phillies went 41-17 down the stretch. The Padres had the best record in the NL on July 31, but finished 30-30 while the Giants went 32-25 (with help from Cody Ross and Jose Guillen, both picked up in August). Their only deadline deal was reliever Ramon Ramirez from the Red Sox.
Impact: Small, with little action. The Giants only added spare parts, and two of those in August. The Phillies trailed the Braves by 3.5 on July 31, with Oswalt a key part of their eventual six-game spread over the Braves. But they would have made the playoffs without him.
2009
AL playoff teams on July 31
Yankees
Tigers
Angels
Red Sox (wild card)
Next closest: Rangers -1.5, White Sox -1.5, Twins -2, Rays -4.5
Final playoff teams
Yankees
Twins
Angels
Red Sox (wild card)
Big moves: Red Sox acquire Victor Martinez, White Sox get Jake Peavy, Tigers trade for Jarrod Washburn, Twins get Orlando Cabrera.
What happened: The Twins tied the Tigers for the division lead and won the tiebreaker, and Washburn was a big reason why as he went 1-3 with a 7.33 ERA in eight starts for the Tigers after he had posted a 2.64 ERA for Seattle. Peavy, meanwhile, made just three starts for the White Sox while Cabrera scored 42 runs in 59 games with the Twins.
Impact: Big. The Cabrera/Washburn deals had a huge impact on the Central, with Washburn's failures doing major damage to the Tigers. Cabrera wasn't great for the Twins, but solidified shortstop, where Nick Punto and Brendan Harris hadn't done the job.
NL playoff teams on July 31
Phillies
Cardinals
Dodgers
Rockies/Giants (wild card)
Next closest: Cubs -0.5.
Final playoff teams
Phillies
Cardinals
Dodgers
Rockies
Big moves: Phillies get Cliff Lee, Cardinals acquire Matt Holliday, Giants acquire Freddy Sanchez.
What happened: The Cardinals acquired Holliday on July 24 and he was a huge reason St. Louis pulled away from the Cubs as he hit .353/.419/.612 with 55 RBIs in 63 games. The Phillies had a comfortable lead in the East, which Lee helped maintain, and he led them into the World Series, going 4-0 in the postseason. The Rockies added only relievers Rafael Betancourt and Joe Beimel but went 36-23 the rest of the way, the best mark in the NL.
Impact: Moderate. The Cubs didn't do anything, but truth is they weren't as good as the Cards, who won the division by 7.5 games.
2008
AL playoff teams on July 31
Rays
White Sox/Twins
Angels
Red Sox (wild card)
Next closest: Yankees -1.5
Final playoff teams
Rays
White Sox
Angels
Red Sox (wild card)
Big moves: Angels trade for Mark Teixeira, Red Sox get Jason Bay, Yankees acquire Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte, White Sox get Ken Griffey Jr.
What happened: The White Sox remained in a battle all season, although the only move either team made was Chicago picked up Griffey from the Reds. The teams tied for the division with the White Sox winning the tiebreaker. The Red Sox picked up Bay in the Manny Ramirez three-way deal and held off the Yankees for the wild card, going 34-19 to the Yankees' 30-24.
Impact: Minor. The Angels had a huge lead when they got Teixeira from the Braves, so he was acquired to make a postseason impact. It didn't happen, as the Red Sox beat the Angels in four games in the American League Division Series. Nady played OK for the Yankees, but that was a team that gave a combined 35 starts to Darrell Rasner and Sidney Ponson. They weren't going to catch the Red Sox.
NL playoff teams on July 31
Phillies
Cubs
Diamondbacks
Brewers/Cardinals (wild card)
Next closest: Mets -1, Marlins -1.5, Dodgers -2.
Final playoff teams
Phillies
Cubs
Dodgers
Brewers (wild card)
Big moves: Brewers get CC Sabathia on July 7, Dodgers get Manny Ramirez and Casey Blake, Phillies acquired Joe Blanton on July 17.
What happened: Sabathia wasn't quite a deadline deal since he came over in early July, and it's a good thing they made the deal since they didn't win the wild card until the final day of the season. Sabathia went 11-2, 1.65 for the Brewers, including three starts down the stretch on three days' rest (including the clincher). Ramirez was an absolute beast for the Dodgers, hitting .396/.489/.743, with 17 home runs and 53 RBIs in 53 games. The Dodgers went 30-24 to catch the D-backs, who went 26-28 after making just two minor moves in Tony Clark and Jon Rauch. The Phillies, meanwhile, held off the collapsing Mets by three games, with Blanton going 4-0, 4.20 in 13 starts.
Impact: Huge. The Brewers don't make the playoffs without Sabathia and the Dodgers probably don't win the West without Ramirez (they finished two games up on Arizona).
SERIES OF THE WEEK
Pittsburgh at Atlanta, Monday through Thursday
Monday: James McDonald (6-4, 4.15) vs. Tim Hudson (9-6, 3.29), ESPN, 7 p.m. ET
Tuesday: Jeff Karstens (8-5, 2.28) vs. Tommy Hanson (11-5, 3.06)
Wednesday: Paul Maholm (6-10, 3.26) vs. Jair Jurrjens (12-3, 2.44)
Thursday: Kevin Correia (11-8, 4.38) vs. Derek Lowe (6-8, 4.49)
The trade deadline doesn't come until Sunday and the Pirates hope that won't be loo late for reinforcements. The Pirates have seven road games against the Braves and Phillies this week. Hudson loves pitching at home -- 2.73 in Atlanta in 2011, compared to 4.47 on the road. The key pitcher to watch for the Pirates is All-Star Correia, who has posted a 5.86 ERA over his past nine starts.
PITCHING MATCHUP OF THE WEEK
Tuesday: Justin Verlander (13-5, 2.24) vs. Mark Buehrle (7-4, 3.38), Tigers at White Sox
The Giants and Phillies begin the week with a three-game series, but none of the aces match up, so we'll go with this crucial AL Central showdown. Buehrle has quietly and efficiently kept the Sox in nearly every game he's started this season, as he hasn't allowed more than three runs since April 22 -- a streak of 14 starts. He may need to pitch a shutout in this one.
THREE STRIKES
1. Our Red Sox blog wrote about this last week, but it's difficult to argue for Adrian Gonzalez as AL MVP when he may not even be the MVP on his own team. Dustin Pedroia has been excellent, but Jacoby Ellsbury has been unbelievable. With five home runs in his past 10 games, he's now just one behind A-Gone (who has just one in July), and has 45 extra-base hits to Gonzalez's 50. He has 28 steals to Gonzalez's one, and while Gonzalez plays an excellent first base, Ellsbury plays a solid center field, a more important defensive position. His latest power display came on Friday night, off Felix Hernandez, when he golfed a low fastball that was just a few inches off the ground deep over fence in right. On a team of stars, Ellsbury's is starting to shine the most.
2. When you have so much parity like this, it only takes one or two players having bad seasons to derail a potential playoff bid. Which teams have given the most playing time to bad players? Looking at the primary playoff contenders, here is how many plate appearances each team has given to hitters with an OPS+ (on-base + slugging percentage, adjusted for home park, scaled to where 100 is a league average hitter) of 75 or less, entering Sunday's action. (From Baseball-Reference.com.)
National League
1. Brewers, 1250
2. Braves, 823
3. Giants, 809
4. Pirates, 660
5. Phillies, 534
6. Reds, 461
7. Diamondbacks, 456
8. Cardinals, 231
The Brewers are the team that should be kicking itself the most if it misses the playoffs, high in star power but a brutal bottom of the roster. Yuniesky Betancourt's line was predictable, but Casey McGehee has been even worse. Both have held their jobs. What is inexcusable is giving more than 300 plate appearances to vets Craig Counsell and Mark Kotsay.
American League
1. White Sox, 1221
2. Rays, 729
3. Tigers, 559
4. Red Sox, 488
5. Indians, 462
6. Angels, 432
7. Rangers, 333
8. Yankees, 121
Will the White Sox continue to play Alex Rios and Adam Dunn as the calendar flips to August? Rios is hitting .207, Dunn .160. Ozzie Guillen must still have faith: He hit Dunn cleanup on Sunday. One of less-heralded bad positions has been the Tampa Bay shortstops, where Reid Brignac and Elliott Johnson are both hitting under .200. Sean Rodriguez made his 11th start there on Sunday, but he's made five errors there with little range.
3. The Mariners have lost 15 straight. I was at Friday's game at Fenway when Felix Hernandez pitched. The King was alternately frustrated and unfocused, but mostly he displayed an alarming amount of bad body language throughout the game. When the Mariners scored a run in the first and then the Red Sox tied it in the bottom of the inning on a Kevin Youkilis RBI single, Hernandez waited to cross paths with Youk after getting out of the inning. Both players smiled and laughed, as Hernandez probably said something to the extent of "Well, there's the ballgame." When Felix departed, not one player met him at the top of the dugout to shake his good or give him a pat on the back. It's a bad situation in Seattle and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Mariners shop Hernandez around in the offseason.
By the way, here are the past five teams to lose 15 or more in row:
2005 Royals: 19 straight losses.
Final record: 56-106.
Next season: 62-100.
Next winning season: Still waiting.
2002 Devil Rays: 15 straight losses.
Final record: 55-106.
Next season: 63-99.
Next winning season: 2008.
1988 Orioles: 21 straight losses.
Final record: 54-107.
Next season: 87-75.
1982 Mets: 15 straight losses.
Final record: 65-97.
Next season: 68-94.
Next winning season: 1984.
1977 Braves: 17 straight losses.
Final record: 61-101.
Next season: 69-93.
Next winning season: 1980.
RANT OF THE WEEK
I find it hard to believe this report, which suggests the Cardinals could trade Colby Rasmus to the White Sox for Edwin Jackson or Matt Thornton plus a prospect. Even if the prospect is lefty pitcher Chris Sale, Chicago's first-round pick in 2010, I don't think it makes much sense for St. Louis. Jackson is a free agent and inconsistent -- 3.97 ERA but a 1.43 WHIP.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Howard Smith/US PresswireA homer? Well, it looked like it might be, then Chris Denorfia got his hands on things.
Here's a more detailed look at the past three seasons.
2010
AL playoff teams on July 31
Yankees
White Sox
Rangers
Rays (wild card)
Next closest: Twins -0.5, Red Sox -5.5.
Final playoff teams
Rays
Twins
Rangers
Yankees (wild card)
Big moves: Rangers picked up Cliff Lee in early July; White Sox get Edwin Jackson; Twins add Matt Capps; Angels acquire Dan Haren.
What happened: The Twins went 36-22 the rest of the season to win the Central by six games. Capps went 2-0 with 16 saves and the Twins won both games he had a blown save anyway. Lee wasn't great for the Rangers in the regular season (4-6, 3.98), but they won the division by nine games over Oakland.
Impact: None. Capps was a nice pickup, but it was mostly an improvement in the starting rotation that spurred the Twins in August and September. The Red Sox curiously remained quiet and never got in the race.
NL playoff teams on July 31
Braves
Cardinals
Padres
Giants (wild card)
Next closest: Reds -0.5, Phillies -3.5
Final playoff teams
Phillies
Reds
Giants
Braves (wild card)
Big moves: Phillies get Roy Oswalt, Dodgers get Ted Lilly from Cubs, Padres acquire Ryan Ludwick.
What happened: Oswalt was superb as the Phillies went 41-17 down the stretch. The Padres had the best record in the NL on July 31, but finished 30-30 while the Giants went 32-25 (with help from Cody Ross and Jose Guillen, both picked up in August). Their only deadline deal was reliever Ramon Ramirez from the Red Sox.
Impact: Small, with little action. The Giants only added spare parts, and two of those in August. The Phillies trailed the Braves by 3.5 on July 31, with Oswalt a key part of their eventual six-game spread over the Braves. But they would have made the playoffs without him.
2009
AL playoff teams on July 31
Yankees
Tigers
Angels
Red Sox (wild card)
Next closest: Rangers -1.5, White Sox -1.5, Twins -2, Rays -4.5
Final playoff teams
Yankees
Twins
Angels
Red Sox (wild card)
Big moves: Red Sox acquire Victor Martinez, White Sox get Jake Peavy, Tigers trade for Jarrod Washburn, Twins get Orlando Cabrera.
What happened: The Twins tied the Tigers for the division lead and won the tiebreaker, and Washburn was a big reason why as he went 1-3 with a 7.33 ERA in eight starts for the Tigers after he had posted a 2.64 ERA for Seattle. Peavy, meanwhile, made just three starts for the White Sox while Cabrera scored 42 runs in 59 games with the Twins.
Impact: Big. The Cabrera/Washburn deals had a huge impact on the Central, with Washburn's failures doing major damage to the Tigers. Cabrera wasn't great for the Twins, but solidified shortstop, where Nick Punto and Brendan Harris hadn't done the job.
NL playoff teams on July 31
Phillies
Cardinals
Dodgers
Rockies/Giants (wild card)
Next closest: Cubs -0.5.
Final playoff teams
Phillies
Cardinals
Dodgers
Rockies
Big moves: Phillies get Cliff Lee, Cardinals acquire Matt Holliday, Giants acquire Freddy Sanchez.
What happened: The Cardinals acquired Holliday on July 24 and he was a huge reason St. Louis pulled away from the Cubs as he hit .353/.419/.612 with 55 RBIs in 63 games. The Phillies had a comfortable lead in the East, which Lee helped maintain, and he led them into the World Series, going 4-0 in the postseason. The Rockies added only relievers Rafael Betancourt and Joe Beimel but went 36-23 the rest of the way, the best mark in the NL.
Impact: Moderate. The Cubs didn't do anything, but truth is they weren't as good as the Cards, who won the division by 7.5 games.
2008
AL playoff teams on July 31
Rays
White Sox/Twins
Angels
Red Sox (wild card)
Next closest: Yankees -1.5
Final playoff teams
Rays
White Sox
Angels
Red Sox (wild card)
Big moves: Angels trade for Mark Teixeira, Red Sox get Jason Bay, Yankees acquire Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte, White Sox get Ken Griffey Jr.
What happened: The White Sox remained in a battle all season, although the only move either team made was Chicago picked up Griffey from the Reds. The teams tied for the division with the White Sox winning the tiebreaker. The Red Sox picked up Bay in the Manny Ramirez three-way deal and held off the Yankees for the wild card, going 34-19 to the Yankees' 30-24.
Impact: Minor. The Angels had a huge lead when they got Teixeira from the Braves, so he was acquired to make a postseason impact. It didn't happen, as the Red Sox beat the Angels in four games in the American League Division Series. Nady played OK for the Yankees, but that was a team that gave a combined 35 starts to Darrell Rasner and Sidney Ponson. They weren't going to catch the Red Sox.
NL playoff teams on July 31
Phillies
Cubs
Diamondbacks
Brewers/Cardinals (wild card)
Next closest: Mets -1, Marlins -1.5, Dodgers -2.
Final playoff teams
Phillies
Cubs
Dodgers
Brewers (wild card)
Big moves: Brewers get CC Sabathia on July 7, Dodgers get Manny Ramirez and Casey Blake, Phillies acquired Joe Blanton on July 17.
What happened: Sabathia wasn't quite a deadline deal since he came over in early July, and it's a good thing they made the deal since they didn't win the wild card until the final day of the season. Sabathia went 11-2, 1.65 for the Brewers, including three starts down the stretch on three days' rest (including the clincher). Ramirez was an absolute beast for the Dodgers, hitting .396/.489/.743, with 17 home runs and 53 RBIs in 53 games. The Dodgers went 30-24 to catch the D-backs, who went 26-28 after making just two minor moves in Tony Clark and Jon Rauch. The Phillies, meanwhile, held off the collapsing Mets by three games, with Blanton going 4-0, 4.20 in 13 starts.
Impact: Huge. The Brewers don't make the playoffs without Sabathia and the Dodgers probably don't win the West without Ramirez (they finished two games up on Arizona).
SERIES OF THE WEEK
Pittsburgh at Atlanta, Monday through Thursday
Monday: James McDonald (6-4, 4.15) vs. Tim Hudson (9-6, 3.29), ESPN, 7 p.m. ET
Tuesday: Jeff Karstens (8-5, 2.28) vs. Tommy Hanson (11-5, 3.06)
Wednesday: Paul Maholm (6-10, 3.26) vs. Jair Jurrjens (12-3, 2.44)
Thursday: Kevin Correia (11-8, 4.38) vs. Derek Lowe (6-8, 4.49)
The trade deadline doesn't come until Sunday and the Pirates hope that won't be loo late for reinforcements. The Pirates have seven road games against the Braves and Phillies this week. Hudson loves pitching at home -- 2.73 in Atlanta in 2011, compared to 4.47 on the road. The key pitcher to watch for the Pirates is All-Star Correia, who has posted a 5.86 ERA over his past nine starts.
PITCHING MATCHUP OF THE WEEK
Tuesday: Justin Verlander (13-5, 2.24) vs. Mark Buehrle (7-4, 3.38), Tigers at White Sox
The Giants and Phillies begin the week with a three-game series, but none of the aces match up, so we'll go with this crucial AL Central showdown. Buehrle has quietly and efficiently kept the Sox in nearly every game he's started this season, as he hasn't allowed more than three runs since April 22 -- a streak of 14 starts. He may need to pitch a shutout in this one.
THREE STRIKES
1. Our Red Sox blog wrote about this last week, but it's difficult to argue for Adrian Gonzalez as AL MVP when he may not even be the MVP on his own team. Dustin Pedroia has been excellent, but Jacoby Ellsbury has been unbelievable. With five home runs in his past 10 games, he's now just one behind A-Gone (who has just one in July), and has 45 extra-base hits to Gonzalez's 50. He has 28 steals to Gonzalez's one, and while Gonzalez plays an excellent first base, Ellsbury plays a solid center field, a more important defensive position. His latest power display came on Friday night, off Felix Hernandez, when he golfed a low fastball that was just a few inches off the ground deep over fence in right. On a team of stars, Ellsbury's is starting to shine the most.
2. When you have so much parity like this, it only takes one or two players having bad seasons to derail a potential playoff bid. Which teams have given the most playing time to bad players? Looking at the primary playoff contenders, here is how many plate appearances each team has given to hitters with an OPS+ (on-base + slugging percentage, adjusted for home park, scaled to where 100 is a league average hitter) of 75 or less, entering Sunday's action. (From Baseball-Reference.com.)
National League
1. Brewers, 1250
2. Braves, 823
3. Giants, 809
4. Pirates, 660
5. Phillies, 534
6. Reds, 461
7. Diamondbacks, 456
8. Cardinals, 231
The Brewers are the team that should be kicking itself the most if it misses the playoffs, high in star power but a brutal bottom of the roster. Yuniesky Betancourt's line was predictable, but Casey McGehee has been even worse. Both have held their jobs. What is inexcusable is giving more than 300 plate appearances to vets Craig Counsell and Mark Kotsay.
American League
1. White Sox, 1221
2. Rays, 729
3. Tigers, 559
4. Red Sox, 488
5. Indians, 462
6. Angels, 432
7. Rangers, 333
8. Yankees, 121
Will the White Sox continue to play Alex Rios and Adam Dunn as the calendar flips to August? Rios is hitting .207, Dunn .160. Ozzie Guillen must still have faith: He hit Dunn cleanup on Sunday. One of less-heralded bad positions has been the Tampa Bay shortstops, where Reid Brignac and Elliott Johnson are both hitting under .200. Sean Rodriguez made his 11th start there on Sunday, but he's made five errors there with little range.
3. The Mariners have lost 15 straight. I was at Friday's game at Fenway when Felix Hernandez pitched. The King was alternately frustrated and unfocused, but mostly he displayed an alarming amount of bad body language throughout the game. When the Mariners scored a run in the first and then the Red Sox tied it in the bottom of the inning on a Kevin Youkilis RBI single, Hernandez waited to cross paths with Youk after getting out of the inning. Both players smiled and laughed, as Hernandez probably said something to the extent of "Well, there's the ballgame." When Felix departed, not one player met him at the top of the dugout to shake his good or give him a pat on the back. It's a bad situation in Seattle and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Mariners shop Hernandez around in the offseason.
By the way, here are the past five teams to lose 15 or more in row:
2005 Royals: 19 straight losses.
Final record: 56-106.
Next season: 62-100.
Next winning season: Still waiting.
2002 Devil Rays: 15 straight losses.
Final record: 55-106.
Next season: 63-99.
Next winning season: 2008.
1988 Orioles: 21 straight losses.
Final record: 54-107.
Next season: 87-75.
1982 Mets: 15 straight losses.
Final record: 65-97.
Next season: 68-94.
Next winning season: 1984.
1977 Braves: 17 straight losses.
Final record: 61-101.
Next season: 69-93.
Next winning season: 1980.
RANT OF THE WEEK
I find it hard to believe this report, which suggests the Cardinals could trade Colby Rasmus to the White Sox for Edwin Jackson or Matt Thornton plus a prospect. Even if the prospect is lefty pitcher Chris Sale, Chicago's first-round pick in 2010, I don't think it makes much sense for St. Louis. Jackson is a free agent and inconsistent -- 3.97 ERA but a 1.43 WHIP.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Howard Smith/US PresswireA homer? Well, it looked like it might be, then Chris Denorfia got his hands on things.In the second leg of this year’s Subway Series, the Yankees got off to a quick start thanks to an opposite-field, two-run double off the bat of Mark Teixeira in the first inning. Teixeira ended the game going 1-for-3 with two walks, and added a run scored to the two he drove in. Ivan Nova was shaky at times, but finished five innings before handing the game over to the first of six men out of the bullpen to finish the Yankees’ 5-1 win.
This latest Yankees victory puts them at a 19-8 mark over their past 27 games. Entering Friday night, Teixeira had hit nine home runs over the previous 26 games, including the 300th of his career. While Teixeira’s on-base percentage of .312 over that same period of time is lackluster, he has been providing his team a ton of power.
The good news is that both his average and his OBP should improve as his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) begins to get closer to his career norms. His 2011 triple-slash line of .244/.354/.542 is not incredibly impressive, but his isolated slugging percentage of .298 certainly is. The Yankees first baseman leads league with 25 home runs, which puts him on a full-season pace for 51 long balls, which would put in the shade his old career high of 43 homers with Texas back in 2005. But the odd thing is that his BABIP currently sits at .210, compared to his career average of .298. That should certainly improve as the season progresses, which would boost his .354 OBP back up near the .370-.390 mark that he, the Yankees and all of us are accustomed to him having. Hammering line drives to the opposite field, as he did on Friday, could be a major key in his batting average climbing back up to a more respectable -- and more typical -- level.
Would the power go away, though? Teixeira’s rate of home runs per fly ball of 21.9 percent is marginally higher than his career mark of 18.6 percent, so it’s easy to expect that it should decline somewhat. However, he has posted full seasons with similar rates in the past. In his second and third seasons with Texas, for example, Teixeira netted HR/FB rates of 22.4 percent and 21.2 percent. With Teixeira delivering that kind of power in the past, and coupling that track record with the short distance of the walls in the new Yankee Stadium, it means that this number is not guaranteed to drop significantly.
Thanks to his power, Teixeira’s wOBA (weighted on base average) of .385 is right in line with career mark of .387. But to make matters happier still, this is all before Teixeira starts the second half of the season, which is when he has historically been much more productive. Known as one of the best second-half hitters in baseball, Teixeira’s career OPS of .957 after the All-Star break is potentially another sign of even better things to come.
Could that lead to hardware on his mantelpiece? Leading the league in home runs while ranking second in RBIs, the more traditional stats that some voters still place heavy emphasis upon, certainly doesn’t hurt Teixeira’s chances at the MVP Award. The man he is trailing in RBIs is Adrian Gonzalez, who is likely the midseason MVP in the American League. While Gonzalez is more than a viable candidate, you’d expect Gonzo’s BABIP of .386 to decline. Fewer hits, some of which would come with men on, would make the argument for Teixeira a bit more feasible. The idea of Teixeira getting even better while Gonzalez comes back to the pack is something the Yankees and their fans will certainly welcome.
If Teixeira is able to go on the second-half tear that is to be expected of him because of the combination of his current low BABIP and his past performance, all sorts of things are on the table. By the time October rolls around his numbers should have him in contention for American League MVP honors. While he likely would not be many voters’ top choice if voting was done tonight, if he is able to continue to hit home runs at a rapid pace and improve in the aforementioned areas, it isn't hard to see how Teixeira could take an MVP trophy home. More importantly for his team is what that stretch-run bump will mean for yet another great shot at the playoffs, giving Teixeira & Co. a shot at more than just one trophy.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Chris Humphreys/US PresswireAfter a homer, Troy Tulowitzki's brand of TGIF is a worth a smile.Four years after the Mark Teixeira trade
June, 18, 2011
6/18/11
1:38
AM ET
By Alex Convery | ESPN.com
On July 31, 2007, only four and a half games stood between the Atlanta Braves and first place. After sitting out baseball’s October tournament for the first time in 14 years, the Braves were desperate to make up the deficit and clinch another ticket to the postseason. Needing offensive firepower in general, Braves general manager John Schuerholz had a tough decision to make.
Seven-hundred ninety-nine miles away, the Texas Rangers owned one of baseball’s worst records. Before the non-waiver trading deadline passed, GM Jon Daniels and his front office decided to rebuild. With star slugger Mark Teixeira drawing suitors from every division, Daniels’ decision looked easy, if not inevitable.
Schuerholz pulled the trigger on the now-infamous deal, and almost four years later, the Braves got to see up close what could have been. They surrendered five prospects in the deal for Teixeira, and they saw two of them play for the Rangers on Friday: Elvis Andrus and Neftali Feliz. A third, Matt Harrison, will start against them Saturday.
“We’ve got the team to win the World Series,” Brian McCann declared when Teixeira joined the Braves. That assurance aside, Atlanta failed to make the postseason in 2007, and same story in 2008. Teixeira wasn’t to blame, hitting 37 homers in his 157 games with Atlanta before getting dealt to the Angels at the deadline in 2008.
Perhaps the most ironic thing about the Braves’ trade with the Rangers is this nugget from the original news release: “The Braves sent rookie catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia and four minor leaguers to Texas for the powerful, switch-hitting Teixeira.” Four minor leaguers? At the time, that was true, but everyone in the know recognized they were giving up top prospects in Feliz and Andrus. It’s easy to forget that Saltalamacchia, handily replaced in Texas with the likes of Bengie Molina and Matt Treanor, was even part of the deal.
Had Daniels not made that fateful decision to rebuild, it’s safe to say that neither team would be the same today. For reference, Jordan Schafer hit leadoff for the Braves on Friday. He has a career .325 OBP in the minors and has never stolen more than 23 bases in a season. Granted, Andrus has posted an OBP of only .334 throughout his career, but he already has 19 stolen bases to his name this season. Andrus in the leadoff spot undoubtedly would be an upgrade over the combination of Schafer and the injured Martin Prado.
The Braves already boast one of the best bullpens in the majors, led by young flamethrower Craig Kimbrel and dominant lefty Jonny Venters. The dynamic duo lead all relievers in WAR, Venters with a 1.4 and Kimbrel right behind him at 1.2. Now, imagine that crew with the addition of Feliz. It’s not unlikely that Atlanta would have spread the embarrassment of that wealth in talent and let Feliz start instead, as the Rangers might eventually do. That would give them a remarkable young core at the front of the rotation, starting with Tommy Hanson and Feliz.
The Rangers' story is widely known by now, as they won a pennant last year. It still seems remarkable that this team made the World Series in 2010 after trading such big-name talent as Adrian Gonzalez, John Danks and, yes, Teixeira.
It’s easy to criticize the Braves’ front office for making the trade. In fact, it’s easy to call the trade one of the worst recent deals pulled off at the deadline. But that’s also easy to say four years later. It’s just as easy to get inside Schuerholz’s head and understand why he made the deal, getting Teixeira for part of 2007 and potentially for all of 2008. His club had just seen its streak of postseason appearances broken. The offense was sputtering, and Andruw Jones was hitting only 20 points over the Mendoza Line. It looked like the club had its catcher of the future in McCann. Perhaps Saltalamacchia could have been converted to first base, but at the end of the day, he was blocked by McCann. The same could be said about Andrus, who looked disposable with Yunel Escobar showing flashes of greatness. Harrison is a back-end rotation starter, hardly a loss for a team with a strong starting rotation as it stood then (or is now). Feliz was the real key in the deal, and while many scouts praised his pure stuff, there were skeptics as well. Many questioned his small frame, claiming he would easily break down.
Schuerholz took a gamble, a gamble that he would eventually lose. But that’s the point of a gamble: You lose as many as you win. And at the end of the day, Teixeira has a ring, while Andrus and Feliz were two wins away from rings of their own. The Braves? Well, they’re still working at it. Just ask McCann, who had to watch Joe Mather swing through a Feliz heater to end the game.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Anthony Gruppuso/US PresswireTorii Hunter had a welcoming committee waiting to greet him at the end of a long run.Are teams smarter than they used to be?
June, 17, 2011
6/17/11
5:50
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
So, Thomas Neumann of Page 2 sent me this picture of a Sports Illustrated cover, listing all the millionaire players from 1985. I think Thomas was working on a career retrospective of John Denny or something, I'm not sure. (OK, he actually interviewed Mike Schmidt.) Anyway, it got me thinking: What if we compare the highest-paid players from 1985 to the highest-paid players of 2011 ... and find out if teams are smarter than they were in 1985. After all, front offices know much more than they used to, right? With all the advanced metrics out there, all the Ivy League dudes making the decisions and so on, you'd expect smarter moves being made by front offices.
Let's take the top 25 players from that 1985 cover, the top 25 highest-paid players of 2011 and check their Wins Above Replacement level (WAR) from Baseball-Reference.com. For 2011, we'll using their current WAR prorated to the entire season.
1985 Top 25 Highest-Paid Players
1. Mike Schmidt ($2.1M): 5.3 WAR
2. Jim Rice ($2.1M): 1.1 WAR
3. George Foster ($1.9M): 1.5 WAR
4. Dave Winfield ($1.7M): 2.8 WAR
5. Gary Carter ($1.7M): 6.7 WAR
6. Dale Murphy ($1.6M): 5.3 WAR
7. Bob Horner ($1.5M): 1.8 WAR
8. Rickey Henderson ($1.5M): 10.0 WAR
9. Eddie Murray ($1.4M): 6.0 WAR
10. Bruce Sutter ($1.3M): -0.1 WAR
11. Ozzie Smith ($1.3M): 5.7 WAR
12. Jack Clark ($1.3M): 3.3 WAR
13. Robin Yount ($1.3M): 1.7 WAR
14. Pedro Guerrero ($1.3M): 7.8 WAR
15. Rick Sucliffe ($1.3M): 2.8 WAR
16. Fernando Valenzuela ($1.2M): 5.6 WAR
17. Goose Gossage ($1.2M): 2.6 WAR
18. Tim Raines ($1.2M): 7.5 WAR
19. Steve Kemp ($1.2M): -0.2 WAR
20. Steve Carlton ($1.2M): 1.2 WAR
21. Andre Dawson ($1.1M): 2.0 WAR
22. Keith Hernandez ($1.1M): 4.9 WAR
23. Mario Soto ($1.1M): 3.6 WAR
24. Andre Thornton ($1.1M): 0.0 WAR
25. Fred Lynn ($1.1M): 2.0 WAR
Total salary: $34.8 million.
Total major payroll in 1985: About $264.7 million.
Percentage of total payroll: 13.1 percent.
Total WAR: 90.9.
2011 Top 25 Highest-Paid Players
1. Alex Rodriguez ($32.0M): 5.3 WAR
2. Vernon Wells ($26.2M): -1.4 WAR
3. CC Sabathia ($24.3M): 4.6 WAR
4. Mark Teixeira ($23.1M): 3.9 WAR
5. Joe Mauer ($23.0M): -0.5 WAR
6. Johan Santana ($21.6M): Injured
7. Todd Helton ($20.3M): 3.9 WAR
8. Miguel Cabrera ($20.0M): 6.7 WAR
9. Roy Halladay ($20.0M): 9.2 WAR
10. Ryan Howard ($20.0M): 2.5 WAR
11. Carlos Beltran ($19.3M): 5.1 WAR
12. Carlos Lee ($19.0M): 3.0 WAR
13. Alfonso Soriano ($19.0M): 1.2 WAR
14. Carlos Zambrano ($18.9M): 2.8 WAR
15. Torii Hunter ($18.5M): -0.7 WAR
16. Barry Zito ($18.5M): -0.5 WAR
17. Jason Bay ($18.1M): 0.0 WAR
18. Ichiro Suzuki ($18.0M): 0.5 WAR
19. Josh Beckett ($17.0M): 9.2 WAR
20. A.J. Burnett ($16.5M): 2.3 WAR
21. Matt Holliday ($16.3M): 5.1 WAR
22. Michael Young ($16.1M): 1.8 WAR
23. Roy Oswalt ($16.0M): 3.7 WAR
24. Jake Peavy ($16.0M): 0.7 WAR
25. John Lackey ($15.9M): -2.5 WAR
Total salary: $493.6 million.
Total major payroll in 2011: About $2.786 billion.
Percentage of total payroll: 17.7 percent.
Total prorated WAR: 65.9.
FINAL ANALYSIS
Major league owners in 2011 are paying a higher percentage of their total payroll to the top 25 players and receiving far less production. Even if you account for better seasons the rest of the way from the likes of Joe Mauer and Ichiro Suzuki and Torii Hunter and John Lackey, the 2011 group wouldn't come close to matching the 1985 group in total WAR.
What's amazing is to look at the 2011 list and realize how many of those guys were never superstar players: Vernon Wells? Carlos Lee? Torii Hunter? Michael Young? A.J. Burnett? Barry Zito? Please. Good players at one point, never superstars.
Another way to look at it: Of the top 25 position players in B-R's WAR in 2011, only ONE (Miguel Cabrera) is one of the top-25 highest-paid players. In 1985, nine of the top 25 position players were among the 25 highest-paid players.
Also, in 2011, 10 of the top-25 highest-paid players are pitchers -- who inherently are more risky. Of those 11, five have spent time on the DL this season.
So, nice job major league owners and general managers! You're collectively, umm ... well, let's just say that Vernon Wells isn't worth $26.2 million.
Follow Dave on Twitter @dschoenfield and check out the SweetSpot Facebook page.
Let's take the top 25 players from that 1985 cover, the top 25 highest-paid players of 2011 and check their Wins Above Replacement level (WAR) from Baseball-Reference.com. For 2011, we'll using their current WAR prorated to the entire season.
1985 Top 25 Highest-Paid Players
1. Mike Schmidt ($2.1M): 5.3 WAR
2. Jim Rice ($2.1M): 1.1 WAR
3. George Foster ($1.9M): 1.5 WAR
4. Dave Winfield ($1.7M): 2.8 WAR
5. Gary Carter ($1.7M): 6.7 WAR
6. Dale Murphy ($1.6M): 5.3 WAR
7. Bob Horner ($1.5M): 1.8 WAR
8. Rickey Henderson ($1.5M): 10.0 WAR
9. Eddie Murray ($1.4M): 6.0 WAR
10. Bruce Sutter ($1.3M): -0.1 WAR
11. Ozzie Smith ($1.3M): 5.7 WAR
12. Jack Clark ($1.3M): 3.3 WAR
13. Robin Yount ($1.3M): 1.7 WAR
14. Pedro Guerrero ($1.3M): 7.8 WAR
15. Rick Sucliffe ($1.3M): 2.8 WAR
16. Fernando Valenzuela ($1.2M): 5.6 WAR
17. Goose Gossage ($1.2M): 2.6 WAR
18. Tim Raines ($1.2M): 7.5 WAR
19. Steve Kemp ($1.2M): -0.2 WAR
20. Steve Carlton ($1.2M): 1.2 WAR
21. Andre Dawson ($1.1M): 2.0 WAR
22. Keith Hernandez ($1.1M): 4.9 WAR
23. Mario Soto ($1.1M): 3.6 WAR
24. Andre Thornton ($1.1M): 0.0 WAR
25. Fred Lynn ($1.1M): 2.0 WAR
Total salary: $34.8 million.
Total major payroll in 1985: About $264.7 million.
Percentage of total payroll: 13.1 percent.
Total WAR: 90.9.
2011 Top 25 Highest-Paid Players
1. Alex Rodriguez ($32.0M): 5.3 WAR
2. Vernon Wells ($26.2M): -1.4 WAR
3. CC Sabathia ($24.3M): 4.6 WAR
4. Mark Teixeira ($23.1M): 3.9 WAR
5. Joe Mauer ($23.0M): -0.5 WAR
6. Johan Santana ($21.6M): Injured
7. Todd Helton ($20.3M): 3.9 WAR
8. Miguel Cabrera ($20.0M): 6.7 WAR
9. Roy Halladay ($20.0M): 9.2 WAR
10. Ryan Howard ($20.0M): 2.5 WAR
11. Carlos Beltran ($19.3M): 5.1 WAR
12. Carlos Lee ($19.0M): 3.0 WAR
13. Alfonso Soriano ($19.0M): 1.2 WAR
14. Carlos Zambrano ($18.9M): 2.8 WAR
15. Torii Hunter ($18.5M): -0.7 WAR
16. Barry Zito ($18.5M): -0.5 WAR
17. Jason Bay ($18.1M): 0.0 WAR
18. Ichiro Suzuki ($18.0M): 0.5 WAR
19. Josh Beckett ($17.0M): 9.2 WAR
20. A.J. Burnett ($16.5M): 2.3 WAR
21. Matt Holliday ($16.3M): 5.1 WAR
22. Michael Young ($16.1M): 1.8 WAR
23. Roy Oswalt ($16.0M): 3.7 WAR
24. Jake Peavy ($16.0M): 0.7 WAR
25. John Lackey ($15.9M): -2.5 WAR
Total salary: $493.6 million.
Total major payroll in 2011: About $2.786 billion.
Percentage of total payroll: 17.7 percent.
Total prorated WAR: 65.9.
FINAL ANALYSIS
Major league owners in 2011 are paying a higher percentage of their total payroll to the top 25 players and receiving far less production. Even if you account for better seasons the rest of the way from the likes of Joe Mauer and Ichiro Suzuki and Torii Hunter and John Lackey, the 2011 group wouldn't come close to matching the 1985 group in total WAR.
What's amazing is to look at the 2011 list and realize how many of those guys were never superstar players: Vernon Wells? Carlos Lee? Torii Hunter? Michael Young? A.J. Burnett? Barry Zito? Please. Good players at one point, never superstars.
Another way to look at it: Of the top 25 position players in B-R's WAR in 2011, only ONE (Miguel Cabrera) is one of the top-25 highest-paid players. In 1985, nine of the top 25 position players were among the 25 highest-paid players.
Also, in 2011, 10 of the top-25 highest-paid players are pitchers -- who inherently are more risky. Of those 11, five have spent time on the DL this season.
So, nice job major league owners and general managers! You're collectively, umm ... well, let's just say that Vernon Wells isn't worth $26.2 million.
Follow Dave on Twitter @dschoenfield and check out the SweetSpot Facebook page.
I'd argue that whenever SweetSpot blogger/editor David Schoenfield co-hosts the Baseball Today Podcast
that's all the reason you need to listen, but Thursday's show was indeed a particularly special one, because ...
1. Former All-Star third baseman Robin Ventura stops by for a cool interview, talking College World Series, timely grand slams, ankle transplant surgery and a whole lot more!
2. On Wednesday's show we discussed whether Justin Verlander was the AL's top pitcher. And then Josh Beckett happened. Now what do we think? Who is going to win the AL Cy Young?
3. Check out those Seattle Mariners … they’re contenders! With second base prospect Dustin Ackley on the way to the bigs, our resident Mariners fan gets realistic with expectations … and I tend to agree.
4. The Florida Marlins seem to be having a bit of trouble winning baseball games. Are we more surprised about their collapse or that maligned Ohio team?
5. If you don't know the story about Thursday's starting pitcher for the New York Yankees, you're really missing out.
Plus: Excellent emails, the designated hitter rule, those crazy, ol' umpires, how Javier Vazquez will throw a gem in Philly, and that "hitting in Petco Park junk," all of it on a packed Thursday Baseball Today podcast!
1. Former All-Star third baseman Robin Ventura stops by for a cool interview, talking College World Series, timely grand slams, ankle transplant surgery and a whole lot more!
2. On Wednesday's show we discussed whether Justin Verlander was the AL's top pitcher. And then Josh Beckett happened. Now what do we think? Who is going to win the AL Cy Young?
3. Check out those Seattle Mariners … they’re contenders! With second base prospect Dustin Ackley on the way to the bigs, our resident Mariners fan gets realistic with expectations … and I tend to agree.
4. The Florida Marlins seem to be having a bit of trouble winning baseball games. Are we more surprised about their collapse or that maligned Ohio team?
5. If you don't know the story about Thursday's starting pitcher for the New York Yankees, you're really missing out.
Plus: Excellent emails, the designated hitter rule, those crazy, ol' umpires, how Javier Vazquez will throw a gem in Philly, and that "hitting in Petco Park junk," all of it on a packed Thursday Baseball Today podcast!
The franchise draft: Round 2!
June, 3, 2011
6/03/11
5:14
PM ET
By
Eric Karabell and
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
AP Photo/Christine CotterMiguel Cabrera suprisingly didn't get picked in the first round of ESPN.com's franchise player draft.So we decided to see who the next 30 players might be. Now, the owners below didn't draft the players, but we included the names since the first-round pick may have affected the second-round pick. Dave went first and made all the odd picks, while Eric made the even selections.
31. Doug Glanville (Wilson Ramos): Miguel Cabrera -- Best hitter on the board, could have easily gone in the top 10. Not much defensively or in the car, but he can rake.
32. Tristan H. Cockcroft (Justin Upton): Adrian Gonzalez -- How are these great offensive monsters slipping so far? Tristan would have his 3-4 hitters for a while.
33. Barry Larkin (Roy Halladay): Jay Bruce -- Roy says he wants a big power bat for the middle of the order. And Bruce is a solid defender as well and just 24.
34. Buster Olney (Michael Pineda): Ryan Zimmerman -– It’s good to have strong defense at the hot corner, and Zimmerman brings that. Hopefully he brings more health, but he’s only 26.
35. Jonah Keri (Jose Bautista): Jered Weaver -- This team is in win-now mode with Bautista, so we’ll go with Jered Weaver, the best ace left on the board.
36. Tim Kurkjian (Clayton Kershaw): Tommy Hanson -- Why stop with one ace? Timmy would have the best one-two rotation punch in baseball!
37. Jayson Stark (Carlos Gonzalez): Jose Reyes -- We thought about the appropriately named Jayson Nix, but we’ll take a 28-year shortstop having his best season.
38. Rick Sutcliffe (Neftali Feliz): Elvis Andrus -- One Texas Ranger isn’t enough, and while Reyes is terrific, Andrus is 22 and has a lot of growing to do. Someday soon, he could be Reyes.
39. Kevin Goldstein (Stephen Strasburg): Eric Hosmer -- KG is a prospect hound so let’s give him Hosmer, who could be the best hitter in the game in a couple of years ... and the next decade after that.
40. Mark Mulder (Mike Stanton): Cole Hamels -- Gotta love the lefties! You say Weaver is the best ace on the board … I beg to differ!
41. Matt Meyers (Hanley Ramirez): Andrew McCutchen -- At least Eric didn’t give Mulder Ryan Howard. I’ll take the five-tool center fielder to go with our five-tool shortstop.
42. Jerry Crasnick (Starlin Castro): Matt Kemp -- Well, I had McCutchen all ready to go there, but Jerry profiled Matt Kemp back in March, and I got the feeling he believed a rebound season was coming. Kemp is, after all, only 26.
43. Christina Kahrl (Buster Posey): Colby Rasmus -- You can have Kemp. I'll take the center fielder with good on-base skills, power, good defense and is two years younger.
44. Jason Churchill (Carlos Santana): Jeremy Hellickson -- Jason’s catcher needs someone to throw to him. Hellickson might end up the AL Rookie of the Year, and there’s no reason he can’t keep improving.
45. Steve Berthiaume (Justin Verlander): Dustin Pedroia -- Off to a slow start, but he's a good hitter and fielder at a premium position. Plus, Steve is a big Sox fan.
46. Jim Caple (Joe Mauer): Prince Fielder -– At least one of Caple’s players should be durable and possess power. Fielder certainly can hit home runs. And when he moves Mauer from behind the plate, it wouldn’t be to first base, anyway!
47. Aaron Boone (Robinson Cano): CC Sabathia -- With Cano on board, Boone wants to win now, so it's the big, workhorse lefty who still has 7-8 more good years in. Or maybe 15 if he goes to Bartolo Colon's doctor.
48. Jim Bowden (David Price): Manny Machado –- Jim does love the prospects, and why do I (Bryce Harper) and Jason Grey (Mike Trout) get all the fun of choosing minor leaguers? Machado is an easily projectable shortstop and I’m sure Jim would agree he is worth waiting until 2013 for.
49. Jason Grey (Mike Trout): Brett Anderson: Jason is crushed by the Machado pick, but Anderson is a nice consolation prize.
50. Orel Hershiser (Jon Lester): Brian McCann -- I knew Grey would have wanted Machado! Orel probably scoffed at that and myriad other picks. He wants to win right now. McCann is arguably the best offensive catcher (with power) in the game, and he’s 27. Orel would love this pick!
51. Mark Simon (Ryan Braun): Drew Stubbs -- Mets fan Simon can't pull the trigger on David Wright and takes Stubbs and his 30/30 potential and terrific range in center.
52. Eric Karabell (Bryce Harper): Mat Latos -- Hey, it’s actually my pick! I’d better get my ace here. I considered Zack Greinke, but Latos is four years younger, and even if my home ballpark is small, I think Latos could overcome it. Plus, I’ll get him more run support.
53. Enrique Rojas (Albert Pujols): Carl Crawford -- Obviously, we're banking on both Pujols and Crawford just having slow starts. They'll bounce back ... right???
54. Jorge Arangure Jr. (Jason Heyward): Matt Wieters -- Jorge said he chose Heyward because he wanted a gifted offensive force for another 15 years. Enter Wieters, who will hit and head to many All-Star games.
55. Chris Singleton (Josh Johnson): Asdrubal Cabrera -- Nice grab on Wieters there, EK. I'm a believer in Cabrera, who is just 25 and pounding the ball so far this season. Even if he fades, we're talking about a switch-hitting shortstop with 15-20 homers and solid D.
56. Amy Nelson (Tim Lincecum): Logan Morrison -- Amy has her freaky ace, now she gets a young on-base machine developing power quicker than most thought. Plus, Amy and Logan will be Tweeting about their franchise 24/7. It’s a win-win.
58. David Schoenfield (Felix Hernandez): Pepe Frias -- HA! I control Schoenfield’s pick here! He gets the late-1970s shortstop that slugged .290 in his career, with one home run (off John Candelaria, no less) and he’s 62 years old. OK, he can have Shin-Soo Choo. We know he’s got power and good years left.
59. Keith Law (Evan Longoria): Brian Matusz. C'mon, EK, you know I'd take Terry Harmon over Pepe Frias. Give Klaw Matusz, a future Cy Young winner ... with the Yankees.
60. Karl Ravech (Troy Tulowitzki): Mark Teixeira -- All the things that Karl mentioned on his first overall pick make sense here. Consistent power, contract is set, winning organization ... Karl’s gonna score some runs! Plus, with the 61st pick in the franchise draft, he could always get some pitching ... wanna keep going?
Ten reasons the Yankees should be nervous
May, 16, 2011
5/16/11
3:53
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
G Fiume/Getty ImagesWhere would the Yankees be without Curtis Granderson's 13 home runs?I vote for crisis. And here's why:
1. The offense is not underperforming.
Check out this chart, showing the starting nine's 2010 numbers, their projected 2011 numbers via ZiPS, and their actual 2011 numbers:
Nick Swisher and Jorge Posada aren't close to matching their projections, but they're balanced out by the hot starts of Curtis Granderson and Russell Martin (although he's cooled off lately). And in the case of Posada, who turns 40 this summer, not completely unexpected given his age. Yes, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez might hit a little better, but given their ages and the league-wide drop in offense, their numbers aren't that far off their projected totals. Cano's power stroke has been there, but a big reason for his MVP-caliber 2010 was improved patience, but his walk rate has dipped from a career-best 8.2 percent to 3.9 percent, his lowest since his rookie season. He's also striking out at a career-worst 17.5 percent. Mark Teixeira, usually a slow starter, has been about what you'd expect.
Anyway, it should be noted the Yankees do lead the AL in runs scored. I just don't expect much of a boost over what they've done so far.
2. The pitching has been better than expected.
Yes, Phil Hughes has struggled with a tired arm, but Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia have both been solid, combining for a 3.50 ERA over 79 2/3 innings. That's better than what Hughes produced last season. A.J. Burnett is pitching as well as he ever has in pinstripes, averaging more than six innings per start with a 3.38 ERA. And the bullpen, despite Rafael Soriano's slow start, has been solid, with a 3.31 ERA. The point: I don't see where the pitching will get better, and there are obvious huge questions marks about the future performance of Colon and Garcia.
3. The schedule.
The Yankees are in the middle of a stretch where they play 32 games in 33 days. Joe Girardi has been reluctant to use his bench much -- Granderson has played every game; Cano, Teixeira, Brett Gardner and Swisher have sat just once; Jeter has missed just two -- leaving one to wonder how all these old legs will handle the wear and tear. They also haven't played Tampa Bay until tonight and haven't made a West Coast trip yet.
4. They failed to take advantage of their early schedule.
The Yankees played 24 of their first 38 games at home -- that's more home games than any other team -- but went just 13-11 in those games. Last season, they were nine games better at home.
5. Can they hit away from home?
The Yankees have thrived off the home run, hitting a major league-leading 60 (11 more than Cincinnati), and scoring a higher percentage of their runs via the home run than any other club. That strategy seems made for Yankee Stadium, but it will translate on the road over 81 games? Last season the Yankees had an .832 OPS at home, .742 on the road.
6. Increased parity means deadline deals will be more difficult.
Right now, Minnesota and Seattle look like the only American League teams who won't still be in the playoff chase come July, but neither has a difference-making pitcher who will be available. The National League looks even tighter than the AL. I just don't see a pitcher near the quality of Cliff Lee or Roy Oswalt who will be on the trade market.
7. You can eat the money but not the results.
How long do the Yankees stick with Posada? Top prospect Jesus Montero is hitting .336 at Triple-A, but with just two home runs and six walks in 122 at-bats. Still, he would be a good bet to outproduce Posada from here on out. But will the Yankees let sentiment get in the way?
8. The Red Sox are only going to get better.
Boston didn't panic after its 2-10 start and has clawed back to .500. Unlike the Yankees, you can find several Red Sox underperforming their projected numbers, most notably Carl Crawford, Dustin Pedroia and John Lackey.
9. The Rays are for real.
This is going to be three-team race. Heck, maybe a four-team race with the Blue Jays in the mix as well.
10. Bad karma.
The Posada incident might have been blown out of proportion, but it symbolizes how things just don't feel right with the Yankees this year. This goes back to the contentious offseason negotiations with Jeter. For some reason, GM Brian Cashman has been more public in vocalizing his thoughts (he also bashed the Rafael Soriano signing). Not that players need support from their GM to play well, but the way he handled the Posada situation was definitely odd. Meanwhile, Girardi doesn't seem to offer the calming leadership that Joe Torre provided. Certainly, Yankee players are used to dealing with issues that blow up in the media, but in the past they've been able to rely on their depth of talent and ability.
Now that talent is older than ever and the on/off switch harder to locate. The Rays have won two of the past three AL East division titles and believe in themselves. The Red Sox are gaining steam. A lot has gone right for the Yankees this season -- and they're barely over .500 and now they get to face David Price as they try to end this skid.
(For more Yankees coverage, check out our SweetSpot blog affiliate, It's About the Money, Stupid.)











