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First base: Magical ending. It's only 43 games and crazy things can happen between games 44 and 162, but it's starting to look like one of those seasons for the Dodgers. They're now 30-13 after one of the most exciting wins of the season, rallying from a 6-1 deficit to defeat the sinking Diamondbacks, 8-7. First, Ivan DeJesus Jr. hit a two-run, two-out double off Arizona closer J.J. Putz in the top of the ninth. Then, after Arizona put runners on the corners with one out, Kenley Jansen induced Jason Kubel to ground into a 4-6-3 double play, with Dee Gordon flying through the air as Justin Upton took him out and James Loney scooping Gordon's bounced throw. A key play happened on Upton's base hit, with Tony Gwynn Jr. making a nice play in right-center to hold Upton to a single. And Kirk Gibson didn't send Upton on the 3-2 pitch to Kubel (understandable considering Jansen's strikeout rate). As Dodger Thoughts' Jon Weisman writes, "I can't explain ... anything that is going on." Matt Kemp last played on May 13. The Dodgers are 7-2 without him and averaging 5.1 runs per game. "I'll never forget this game," DeJesus said.

Second base: Harper versus Halladay. Terrific anecdote from Mark Zuckerman, who covers the Nationals at NatsInsider.com. He tells the story of Harper saying in spring training that he's watched Roy Halladay and says he starts a lot of hitters with a slow curveball. In the third inning on Tuesday, sure enough Halladay threw Harper a first-pitch curve and Harper ripped it for a two-run triple, putting the Nationals ahead. The Nats are now 4-1 against the Phillies, setting the stage for tonight's Harper-Cole Hamels showdown.

Third base: Wilson's gem. C.J. Wilson shut down the A's, allowing one hit over eight scoreless innings, a Cliff Pennington single in the fifth. With Vernon Wells out 8-to-10 weeks after thumb surgery, the Angels can finally play the lineup they should have been playing all along: Peter Bourjos in center and Mike Trout in left. With Torii Hunter temporarily out, red-hot Mark Trumbo has been playing right field. With the ground Bourjos and Trout can cover, the Angels can live with Trumbo's lack of range. In fact, even when Hunter returns, I'd stick with this lineup -- making Hunter more of the utility guy instead of Trumbo, who needs to play every day considering the Angels' offensive problems. Yes, Bourjos is off to a slow start at the plate (.197), but it's only 84 plate appearances. Oh ... and that Albert Pujols guy hit his third home run in seven games.

Home plate: Tweet of the Day.

Dodger players cheered so loud as they sprinted onto the field as that game ended you could hear them from the press box. Unbelievable team.

— Molly Knight (@molly_knight) May 23, 2012

It was another eventful chat session as we discussed Albert Pujols' homerless April and asked readers to project his final numbers. We discussed many things about the Minnesota Twins, gave a shout-out to the awesome Jose Altuve, tried to figure out what the Angels should do with Mark Trumbo, wondered who the first manager to be fired will be (yes, once we again Dusty Baker's name came up!), wondered how much bad defense has to do with the poor starts by Max Scherzer and Josh Johnson, wondered how much good defense is helping Jeremy Hellickson, debated the Nationals' attendance issues and pointed out that Pujols' slow start is stealing attention away from Jose Bautista's slow start. All that and more! Check out the transcript here.

For all the consternation and criticism dished out over the Boston Red Sox's 1-5 start, another expected American League power is off to a sluggish opening week as well: The Los Angeles Angels are 2-4 after coughing up 20 hits and an eighth-inning lead in losing 10-9 to the Minnesota Twins on Thursday.

There is one obvious difference between the two starts: The Red Sox have been outscored 38 to 22 while the Angels are even-up 30 and 30. On the other hand, the Red Sox have played the Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays while the Angels have faced Bruce Chen, Luke Hochevar, Jonathan Sanchez, Nick Blackburn, Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano. Not exactly Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz there.

Actually, based on ESPN.com's preseason predictions, maybe it's not fair to label the Red Sox an "expected power." After all, 34 of 50 voters predicted the Red Sox to miss the playoffs. Only one -- fantasy expert Matthew Berry -- picked the Red Sox to win the American League East. Meanwhile, 25 of the 50 picked the Angels to win the AL West and 46 of 50 picked them to make the playoffs.

The Angels were easily the most popular World Series pick as well, with 18 of the 50 selecting them to win it all -- 36 percent, a pretty amazing total since last time I checked there are some other pretty good teams around. Only one voter (Karl Ravech) picked the Red Sox to win the World Series.

OK, those are just predictions and as our SweetSpot network blog affiliate says, you can't predict baseball. Still, since ESPN's panel of experts did essentially declare the Angels the World Series favorite, it seems like a fair time to ask: What's wrong with the Angels and why aren't their fans ready to fire the manager, whine about overpaid left fielders and complain about the bullpen?

Well, it's Los Angeles, for one thing. No less enthusiastic, but perhaps slightly less pessimistic. Still, we can't get all crazy about the Red Sox and just ignore the Angels getting bulldozed by a mediocre Twins lineup.

True fact: In 2011, the Red Sox had a run differential of plus-138. The Angels had a run differential of just plus-34. As good as Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson are, and as good Kendrys Morales may prove to be, that's still a lot of ground for the Angels to make up.

So, in the spirit of early-season panic, here are some things that could go wrong with the Angels.

1. Jered Weaver doesn't repeat his career season.

Weaver is a terrific pitcher. He has increased his innings each season he has been in the big leagues, peaking at 235.2 last season, when he ranked fifth in the league. It's not a knock against him to say he might not be quite as stingy with the runs as in 2011. But check his basic numbers in 2010 and 2011:



In some regards, he actually pitched better in 2010, most notably in strikeout rate. His walk rate, home run rate and hit rate were all pretty similar, thus his Fielding Independent Pitching runs per nine was basically identical. So why did he allow 18 fewer runs in 2011? A couple primary reasons: 15 of his 20 home runs were solo shots as opposed to 15 of 23 in 2010; he allowed a .195 average with men on base in 2011 versus .236 in 2010. In other words, if you consider hits to be randomly distributed, they worked in his favor last season. Also note: After a hot start in 2011, his second-half ERA rose from 1.86 to 3.21 as he surrendered 15 home runs in 95.1 innings. He's off to a great start in 2012 in one regard: 17 strikeouts and just one walk. But he's allowed five runs for a 3.21 ERA. Random distribution, my friends.

2. Potential bullpen issues.

Mike Scioscia left Rich Thompson in to allow four runs in the eighth inning on Thursday, the first two on Justin Morneau's go-ahead two-run homer and then two more that proved costly when the Angels scored twice in the ninth. Now, Scioscia would have loved to have had lefty Scott Downs face Joe Mauer and Morneau, but Downs had rolled his ankle the previous inning in a collision with Denard Span. Fellow lefty Hisanori Takahashi had already been used since starter Dan Haren lasted only five innings.

But put of the reason Thompson was in there was that ancient relievers LaTroy Hawkins and Jason Isringhausen were apparently unavailable to pitch since both had thrown the night before, Hawkins for 16 pitches, Isringhausen for 10. Seems odd, since neither had pitched on Tuesday. But why not extend closer Jordan Walden for five outs? Thompson is a guy who is homer-prone, so why let him face the meat of the Twins' order? Plus, isn't it a bad sign if two-sevenths of your bullpen can't pitch two days in a row? "We're going to need to get our starters maybe over that little hump and then try to get our roles in the bullpen a little more nailed down," Scioscia said. "Our guys tried. We just couldn't shut the door when we needed it."

3. Vernon Wells.

It's early, but he's hitting .217 with no walks and five strikeouts. Stay tuned.

4. Will we get good Ervin or mediocre Ervin?

Ervin Santana had a career-low 3.38 ERA last season. He has been pretty consistent the past two seasons, but he has been plagued by minor injuries in the past, a reason his ERA rocketed up to 5.03 in 2009 and 5.76 in 2007. Just something to keep in mind.

5. Is Peter Bourjos' bat for real?

Bourjos is a supreme defender in center and he exceeded expectations last year with a .271/.327/.438 batting line. Scouts had doubts about his bat coming up through the minors and he did strike out 124 times against just 32 walks in 2011. While his .338 BABIP may be repeatable -- he is one of the fastest players in the majors, after all -- Dan Szymborski's ZiPS system projects a .261/.309/.412 line, with some regression due to a lower BABIP.

6. Mark Trumbo's defense at third.

I've written about this before. The early returns aren't good; yes, it's early, I realize that. It's also true that since 1950 only Enos Cabell has successfully converted from first base to third base at the major league level. We don't know yet how determined Scioscia will be to keep Trumbo's bat in the lineup, but playing him at third is likely to be a liability, especially since Trumbo's low OBP means he isn't really much -- if any -- of an offensive upgrade over Alberto Callaspo.

7. Howie Kendrick also coming off his best season.

Kendrick posted a career-high .802 OPS in 2011, 50 points above his career mark, fueled by a career-high 18 home runs. It's possible that power growth was real, as he appeared to sacrifice a few more strikeouts -- a career-high 20.4 percent K rate -- for a little more power while maintaining his usual .285 or so batting average. But there's also a chance it was simply his best season and he's not quite as good.

8. Maybe Albert Pujols won't be better than he was in 2011.

Hey, that's still pretty awesome, if also somewhat more mortal compared to his previous decade of production.

Look, it's only a week. The Angels should still have one of the best, and maybe the best, rotations in the league. They have a lot of depth and versatility in the lineup, although it remains to be seen who will be a second and third big bat behind Pujols.

The larger point is this: This isn't a perfect team in my book, certainly one that shouldn't rate as such a landslide favorite to make the playoffs and win the World Series.

So, yes, I just managed to slam 49 of my ESPN colleagues. This is what the first week does to us.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

There are two questions regarding the Los Angeles Angels' experiment of moving first baseman Mark Trumbo to third base:

1. Will it work, in the basic sense of what is the likelihood Trumbo will be able to adequately handle the position?

2. Is it the right move to make?

Mind you: Trumbo played 624 games at first base and a handful in the outfield in the minor leagues, but none at third. Other than 23 innings in the outfield last season, all his action came at first base.

I did a little search on Baseball-Reference and checked all players since 1950 who had played at least 300 games at first base and third base. I picked what I thought would be a reasonable standard of playing time; if you played 300 games at third base, it means a manager was at least willing to live with you out there for a couple seasons' worth of games. This would help narrow down players who had played both positions and highlight guys who may have made the first-to-third transition. I figured it would be a large list. After all, a lot of third basemen get shifted to first base, right?

There were only 24 such players. The list: Harmon Killebrew, Deron Johnson, Joe Torre, Dick Allen, Richie Hebner, Pete Rose, Tony Perez, Enos Cabell, Ray Knight, Bob Horner, Darrell Evans, Pedro Guerrero, George Brett, Jeff King, Dave Magadan, Ron Coomer, Todd Zeile, Phil Nevin, Shea Hillenbrand, Kevin Youkilis, Jim Thome, Aubrey Huff, Wes Helms, Miguel Cabrera.

You know how many of those 24 converted from first base to third base? One.

Nearly all of these guys came up playing primarily third base in the minors. Now, not all began their careers in the majors at third base. Ron Coomer, for example, played primarily first base his first couple of seasons with the Twins, but he'd come up through the Dodgers system as a third baseman. Joe Torre and Todd Zeile converted from catcher. Dick Allen played second base and outfield in the minors before moving to third base as a rookie. Tony Perez was like Coomer: Came up as a third baseman but played first his first couple years before moving to third base for a few seasons. Pete Rose, of course, played second base and outfield before moving to third base as a 34-year-old and later to first base. It's safe to say that few major league players have had the drive and baseball discipline of Rose. Pedro Guerrero? He was sort of a man without a position. He played outfield, third and first in the minors, so wasn't completely new to the position when Tommy Lasorda tried that misguided experiment.

That leaves us with Enos Cabell, our only true first-to-third conversion on the list. He came up through the Orioles system as a first baseman, playing 418 games there, 55 in the outfield and 11 at third base. He was traded to the Astros for Lee May where he played mostly outfield his first season but did start 19 games at third. He then moved to third base regularly in 1976 and remained there for five seasons.

That's it. One guy.

I cut the list down to 200 games at each position and we get to 43 guys. Again, mostly guys who came up as third basemen plus utility types like Mark Loretta and Ty Wigginton. Dan Driessen sort of qualifies, but he had played 43 games at third base in the minors in 1972 before his rookie season. Sparky Anderson tried to turn Driessen into a third baseman, starting him 85 games there in '73 and 122 in '74. It didn't stick. That's how Rose ended up there in 1975.

Now it's possible I may have missed a guy who played one year at first base and then moved permanently to third, and thus missing our 300- or 200-game cutoff. But you get the idea: This kind move rarely works. Trumbo was an excellent defensive first baseman. He's also a very large dude: 6-foot-4, 225 pounds. Immediately, you have to wonder about his range and quickness, although Angels fans will surely point out that Troy Glaus fared fine at the hot corner despite his similar size. In the limited spring training sample size of 60 innings, Trumbo has made three errors for an .833 fielding percentage.

So there have to be doubts about the move working, no matter Trumbo's work ethic or willingness.

Now, about the second question: Is Trumbo's bat worth getting in the lineup?

This is the part of the equation that many are ignoring. While Trumbo hit 29 home runs as a rookie he also posted a .291 OBP. Alberto Callaspo can't match that power but did post a .366 OBP. That 75-point gap in OBP looms larger than the 23-homer gap between the two players.

Trumbo created about 71 runs in 573 plate appearances. Callaspo created about 68 runs in 536 plate appearances. In terms of runs created per 27 outs, Callaspo had the better figure -- 5.22 runs per 27 outs versus Trumbo's 4.47. View it this a way: A lineup of 2011 Mark Trumbos would hit a lot of home runs ... but a lot of solo home runs. The lineup of 2011 Alberto Callaspos would score more runs due to its ability to get on base and sustain rallies.

Factor in the defensive spread between the two and there are obvious reasons to question the move -- not that it isn't wise to improve the versatility of your lineup. Now, there is a caveat worth mentioning. Callaspo may not be as good as he was in 2011 and Trumbo may improve his on-base skills. If that OBP gap narrows, Trumbo's power edge makes him a better offensive player.

That's the risk Mike Scioscia is taking if Trumbo becomes the team's regular third baseman. In the end, I suspect Trumbo becomes more of a utility guy: 40 games at third base, 30 games at DH, 20 games at first base when Albert Pujols rests or DHs and maybe a few games in the outfield. That can be a nice guy to have on a club.

The final Baseball Today podcast of February was a winning one as Mark Simon and me discussed myriad names and topics, including ...

1. Do you feel differently about Ryan Braun after the strange events of last week? Mark and I are similarly dissatisfied and explain why.

2. Boston Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek has apparently had enough, and we discuss his Hall of Fame case, such as it is. We also deviate on a few of his teammates, and hit a nerve on David Ortiz.

3. The Missouri catchers get a lot richer after signing contract extensions, but were the Cardinals and Royals wise to make these moves with Yadier Molina and Salvador Perez?

4. In our Simon Says segment, we play the "Superstar or Shlabotnick" game (no, really, we did!) and discuss the recent ESPN The Magazine cover story about smart Oakland Athletics pitcher Brandon McCarthy.

5. Emails pose questions about last week’s memorable podcast, other books to recommend (including one from me!), the Angels third-base situation with Alberto Callaspo/Mark Trumbo and more!

So download and listen to Tuesday’s fine edition of the Baseball Today podcast! It’s the wise thing to do!

Now that we’re waiting for these last few days to pass before pitchers and catchers report, it’s worth remembering that beyond the usual camp fights and reps as players get into regular-season shape, we’ll also see a few players challenged as they never have been: challenged to change positions.

Every club has different motivations for attempting this sort of thing: immediate need, making room for a major free agent or fulfilling a long-term plan for a younger player. What are the 10 most interesting attempted position switches to watch this spring?

1. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers, from 1B to 3B: Cabrera’s bulk might seem like a major stumbling block to his making a jump to the hot corner now that Prince Fielder is manning first base. Although Cabrera started at the hot corner for the Marlins, he was a regular there in only two full seasons, 2006 and 2007; Baseball Info Solutions graded his defense 27 runs below average across those two seasons.

Tigers skipper Jim Leyland has plenty of experience with making the best of a bad situation at the hot corner. He tolerated Bobby Bonilla’s fielding at third base for the ’97 Marlins despite long exposure to Bonilla’s bad hands and scattershot arm as a Pirate back in the ’80s, for example. But fundamentally, can Cabrera do it? That seems like a stretch, but over a full season, he might not have to. The Tigers can rotate him or Fielder to DH now and again, and Cabrera also has plenty of experience in left field -- another position where the Tigers don’t have to play any one guy regularly.

With Leyland in the dugout, it’s worth keeping in mind that no manager in baseball today is more aggressive when it comes to using defensive replacements -- even if Cabrera acquits himself better than expected, don’t be surprised if Brandon Inge keeps busy as a frequently used substitute.

2. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins, from SS to 3B: Another move made to make room for a free agent. The immediate expectation is that an athletic shortstop like HanRam should be more than capable of jumping to third base. Shortstop is supposed to be harder, after all, so the expectation is that Ramirez might go from a questionable glove at short to a defensive asset at third.

However, it’s worth remembering that not all of these moves turn out well. As Michael Humphreys documents in his excellent "Wizardry: Baseball’s All-Time Greatest Fielders Revealed," Chipper Jones was an example of a former shortstop with tremendous athletic ability moved to third, only to deliver initially awful results in his first several seasons. Humphreys goes on to point out that Alex Rodriguez hasn’t become a great or even a good third baseman since starting out as a competent shortstop, and if your memory goes back to the ’70s and ’80s, neither did Toby Harrah.

So Ramirez’s value at third base is no sure thing, and how well he adapts will be a matter of hard work in camp.

3. Neftali Feliz, Rangers, from closer to starter: We’ve been through this before, as Feliz was prepped to start for the Rangers last spring only to wind up back in the bullpen. This time around, with veteran closer Joe Nathan in the fold, the transition should stick. Feliz has consulted with Pedro Martinez on the nature of the challenge of moving to the rotation -- a move Pedro had to make when the Dodgers distrusted his ability to withstand the workload of starting.

In Feliz’s case -- unlike Pedro’s -- his size or stature has never been a stumbling block, and he’s always had the broad assortment of plus stuff you’d associate with a top starter. Between the plus changeup he added in 2008 and the power breaking stuff he hasn’t had to use as often out of the 'pen, he’ll do more than keep people guessing. Because he’ll be entering his age-24 season, the Rangers will be sure to monitor his workload, but every other light is green on this project.

4. Daniel Bard, Red Sox, from reliever to starter: If Feliz’s transition is part of a grand design, Bard’s seems more a matter of immediate need. However, it’s worth remembering that Bard started out as a starting pitcher prospect and a first-round selection. He didn’t really turn the corner with the slider that now complements his 97 mph fastball until he moved to the ’pen in the minors. Will he be able to throw it as effectively a second or third time through a big league lineup? His changeup might wind up becoming the key off-speed pitch in his arsenal that gets him all the way through 90-100 pitches and into the sixth inning.

5. Mark Trumbo, Angels, from 1B to 3B: This hasn’t gotten nearly the same kind of attention that Cabrera’s has in even less time, but that’s because Trumbo’s success is not a critical component to the Angels’ plans the way Cabrera’s is to the Tigers. General manager Jerry Dipoto is adamant that, after he recovers from a stress fracture in his foot, Trumbo’s move off first base to make way for Albert Pujols won’t be to one position but to a superutility role, playing all four corners and DH as Mike Scioscia tries to find ways to squeeze Bobby Abreu, Vernon Wells, Kendrys Morales and Trumbo into the lineup when there are just two lineup slots they can have to themselves.

Even if Trumbo’s healthy, there’s the question of whether he can really make the jump to third. He’s never played there in the minors, let alone the majors, and he was better known as a top pitcher in high school when the Angels drafted him. As experiments go, this seems desperate and might not survive to see the light of Opening Day.

6. Chris Sale, White Sox, from reliever to starter: This move is more like Feliz’s shift to the rotation than Bard’s, because it was anticipated from the day the White Sox drafted him in 2010 that he had the stuff to eventually start. But his arm was good enough to make the majors in a relief role just weeks after his selection. With Mark Buehrle’s defection via free agency, a slot has opened up, so the Sox can proceed with what they’ve always wanted from Sale: a southpaw tower of power capable of pumping pure gas from the mound. Although 2012 hasn’t been a season to look forward to on Chicago’s South Side, watching Sale every fifth day should be something people pay to see.

7. Jayson Werth, Nationals, from RF to CF: This isn’t guaranteed to happen, but it’s a very likely outcome should top prospect Bryce Harper somehow wind up making the team as the starting right fielder. The argument over whether Harper will be ready is one major hurdle, but whether Werth would be able to handle center field over a full season is another.

In baseball history, only two men as tall as Werth’s 6-foot-5 have ever played anything close to every day as a center fielder: Alex Rios of the White Sox over the past two years and the Phillies’ Von Hayes for big chunks of 1984 and 1985. Werth’s listed weight, 220, is heavier than either Rios' now or Hayes' then -- he’s simply a much bigger guy. Drew Stubbs is another big man in center -- he’s 6-foot-4, but also almost 20 pounds lighter. The Braves’ Dale Murphy was famously big for center, but at 6-4 and a listed weight of 210, he was also smaller than Werth.

If Harper makes a case to the Nats to play on Opening Day, could Werth really handle the pounding of racing gap to gap over a full season? If you have your doubts, you’re not alone, especially in light of GM Mike Rizzo’s recent decision to bring back Rick Ankiel (although on a minor league deal).

8. Jim Thome, Phillies, DH to 1B: As Jayson Stark pointed out last month, Thome’s challenge in moving back to playing a position might be remarkable, but he won’t be the only famous forty-something to have spent time at first base. But because he's played all of four games at first base in the past six seasons, concerns about his durability given his extensive track record for injury -- including two DL stints last season -- come to the fore.

However, even with the initial expectation that Thome will be little more than a Sunday starter and regular pinch hitter, you’ve got the open question about how much playing time in left John Mayberry Jr. might have to log, as well as the dubious proposition that Ty Wigginton will hit enough to handle the spot. Given the uncertainty about his lineup, Phillies skipper Charlie Manuel might well be tempted to take a few chances with Thome.

9. Daniel Murphy, Mets, utility to 2B: It remains to be seen how serious the Mets are about attempting to return Murphy to the keystone after he was knocked out with knee injuries -- while playing second base, no less. He has never been able to handle second base as a regular at any level as a pro, having played just 19 games there in the minors. This is a lot like what the team went through with Keith Miller more than 20 years ago. Even with the “Hal McRae rule” to protect second basemen, a basic level of agility is required at second base -- to protect yourself and to move around the bag effectively -- and there’s reason to doubt Murphy has it after injuries to both knees, if he ever had it in the first place.

10. Sean Doolittle, Athletics, 1B to pitcher: Speaking of knee injuries, bum wheels essentially ruined Doolittle’s shot to stick as a position player. The former supplementary first-rounder from the 2007 draft was a two-way star at Virginia in college. Now the A’s are trying to recoup some value from their investment by putting that arm to good use on the mound. He made an initial effort on the mound last season, throwing an inning in rookie ball. You can never know how these things will turn out, but Sergio Santos is the most recent example of a strong-armed player enjoying an overnight success with a move to the mound; A’s fans might have at least this one small chance to daydream.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

This exercise has no scientific value whatsoever. But it's fun. Let's go position by position and see whether the Texas Rangers or Los Angeles Angels rate higher. For the purpose of this discussion, we'll assume the Rangers will sign Yu Darvish.

Catcher: Mike Napoli vs. Chris Iannetta

Here's the thing about Napoli: He actually hit better on the road in 2011, so his monster season wasn't just a result of changing to a better park. After hitting .187 through May 27, Napoli finished at .232 in the first half and crushed the ball after the All-Star break, hitting .383/.466/.706 (wait, why was he batting eighth in the World Series?). Napoli cut his strikeout rate over 7 percent from 2010 and increased his walk rate. He did have a .344 average on balls in play compared to his career mark of .303, even though his line-drive percentage was only 1 percent higher, so some regression is no doubt in order. Still, his booming bat makes this a clear selection. Advantage: Rangers.

First base: Mitch Moreland vs. Albert Pujols

Moreland had a disappointing sophomore season, although he played through a wrist injury that required surgery in November. He also requires a platoon partner against left-handers. He does, however, ground into fewer double plays than Pujols. OK, I managed to write one paragraph attempting to compare Mitch Moreland to Albert Pujols. Advantage: Angels.

Second base: Ian Kinsler vs. Howie Kendrick

Kinsler hit 32 home runs, stole 30 bases in 34 attempts and turned the double play as pretty as anybody in the game . Kendrick had his best season with that bat and with the glove, with the defensive metrics giving him an outstanding rating. Overall, FanGraphs.com rated Kinsler as the sixth most valuable position player in the majors in 2011, and Kendrick 18th. Now, I don't believe Kinsler is the sixth-best player in baseball and the big argument against that is he hit just .214 on the road and owns a career average 67 points higher at home. It would be interesting to see Kendrick hitting at Rangers Ballpark. Still, Kinsler's power, defense and speed gives him the edge. Advantage: Rangers.

Third base: Adrian Beltre vs. Alberto Callaspo

You could probably dig up enough numbers to make this an interesting argument. For example, Callaspo had the higher on-base percentage in 2011, .366 to .331. Callaspo hit .309/.368/.436 on the road in 2011 while Beltre hit .271/.297/.440. But let's not get too silly here. Advantage: Rangers.

Shortstop: Elvis Andrus vs. Erick Aybar

This is one probably closer than you think. Or maybe not. But it does show Andrus' level of national exposure is pretty high for a guy who hit five home runs and made 25 errors. Andrus led in FanGraphs' WAR, 4.5 to 4.0, while Aybar led in Baseball-Reference WAR, 4.7 to 3.5. Andrus has the better range and on-base skills and is one of the best baserunners in the league, but his lack of power helps tilt the comparison toward Aybar. Andrus did increase his extra-base hits from 18 to 35 and he just turned 23, so maybe that slight increase in doubles power is arriving. Aybar had an excellent 2009, a poor 2010 and a solid 2011. Both are good players. A close call, but I like Andrus' chances of raising his game a bit in 2012. Advantage: Rangers.

Left field: David Murphy vs. Vernon Wells

Murphy wasn't actually very good in 2011. But he was better than Wells. (In fact, for all the talk about the Rangers going after Prince Fielder to upgrade first base, why no talk about upgrading left field?) Of course, they could slide Josh Hamilton to left if Leonys Martin is ready for center, but Martin seems ticketed for at least half a season in Triple-A. Advantage: Rangers.

Center field: Josh Hamilton vs. Peter Bourjos

Here's the deal: If the Rangers called up the Angels and said, "We'll offer you Hamilton for Bourjos," who hangs up first? Certainly, if you consider the contracts of each, the Angels hang up. But what if we ignore the financial circumstances? What do the Angels say? You have a supreme flychaser in Bourjos who had a solid year with the bat in his first full season. Hamilton was awesome in his 2010 MVP season, but his OBP in 2009 was .315 and in 2011 it was .346, hardly sterling figures for playing in a hitter's paradise. And he's injury prone. In fact, both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference rated Bourjos as the better player in 2011. And, no, that's not because he played more often -- Bourjos only had 14 more plate appearances. Hamilton had only 12 more extra-base hits and drew only seven more walks. He outhit Bourjos .298 to .271. Hamilton was better at the plate, but not by a large margin. Anyway, I give Hamilton the edge since Bourjos has to prove he can do this again and Hamilton's mammoth 2010 still buzzes our memories. Advantage: Rangers

Right field: Nelson Cruz vs. Torii Hunter

Cruz is another example of why the Texas lineup is a bit overrated: He posted a .312 OBP in 2011, which placed him 112th out of 148 regulars with 500 plate appearances. Now, when he gets hot -- as we saw in the ALCS -- he can be unstoppable, but when he's off he'll chase pitchers out of the zone. His career season in 2010 appears fueled by a higher than normal .348 average on balls in play. While he has a strong arm, Rangers fans unfortunately saw his lack of range on display in Game 6 of the World Series. Hunter, on the hand, is getting old and didn't hit right-handers very well in 2011. Still, his .313 OBP against righties was higher than Cruz's season total. Factor in Hunter's durability and defense and Cruz's annual aches and pains, and I'll go Hunter. Advantage: Angels.

Designated hitter: Michael Young vs. Mark Trumbo

Hey, it's 2011's two most overrated players! Advantage: Rangers. Although I'd like to see home many home runs Trumbo could hit in Arlington.

Bench: Yorvit Torrealba/Craig Gentry/Julio Borbon vs. Hank Conger/Maicer Izturis/Bobby Abreu/Kendrys Morales

Big edge here to the Angels. And while the Rangers have Martin on the horizon, the Angels can counter with Mike Trout. Advantage: Angels.

No. 1 starter: Yu Darvish vs. Jered Weaver

Weaver has been one of baseball's top 10 starters the past two seasons. Darvish may be good, but as good as Weaver? That's expecting a lot. Advantage: Angels.

No. 2 starter: Matt Harrison vs. Dan Haren

The ERA difference between the two was small -- Harrison's 3.39 versus Haren's 3.17, and once you factor in the home parks, Harrison actually had the better adjusted ERA. On the other hand, Haren had a 192/33 strikeout/walk ratio compared to Harrison's 126/57. While he benefits from being in the perfect park for him, we have to go with Haren's proven record of success and durability. Advantage: Angels.

No. 3 starter: Derek Holland vs. C.J. Wilson

Wilson had a 2.31 ERA on the road in 2011. Don't be surprised if he contends for the Cy Young Award in 2012. Advantage: Angels.

No. 4 starter: Colby Lewis vs. Ervin Santana

Unlike Haren, as a flyball pitcher Lewis is probably in the worst park for him. He gave up 35 home runs in 2011, and 23 of those came at home. On the road, he went 9-5 with a 3.43 ERA. The underlying results of the two are pretty similar, although Santana has better stuff. I get the feeling that if you switched parks, they'd post each other's numbers. Advantage: Draw.

No. 5 starter: Neftali Feliz vs. Jerome Williams

In his first promotion to the majors in 2009, Feliz averaged 11.3 K's per nine with a 4.9 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In 2010, those numbers fell to 9.2 and 3.94. In 2011, they fell again, to 7.8 and 4.3. Why is he getting worse? Will a move to the rotation help? Did he throw his fastball too much? Will he recover from blowing the clinching game of the World Series? All intriguing questions without answers to be determined. Jerome Williams -- yes, the kid who came up with the Giants in 2003 when he was just 21 -- is still just 30 years old. He made it back to the majors after beginning the year in independent ball. Advantage: Rangers.

Closer: Joe Nathan vs. Jordan Walden

From June 28 on, Nathan pitched 28 innings, allowed a .190 average and struck out 28 batters with just five walks. You can't read too much into 28 innings, but it's a good sign that it just took him some time to recover from Tommy John surgery. Walden led the majors with 10 blown saves, but his underlying numbers were all strong. I love his power fastball and with a little better command, he should be dynamite. Advantage: Angels.

Bullpen: Alexi Ogando/Mike Adams/Koji Uehara/Scott Feldman/Mark Lowe vs. Scott Downs/LaTroy Hawkins/Hisanori Takayashi/Rich Thompson/Bobby Cassevah

With Ogando apparently slated to move back to the pen and a full season from Adams, the Rangers' pen looks deep although it currently lacks a reliable left-hander. Advantage: Rangers.

Manager: Ron Washington vs. Mike Scioscia

It's hard to give Washington the edge after his postseason performance. On the other hand, Scioscia gave Wells 500 at-bats. Advantage: Draw.

The final score: Rangers win 9-7 with two draws. But if the Angels do the same thing and ignore Wells' fat salary and play Mike Trout in left field, that would give them the edge there and even our score at 8-8. In other words, how many days until Opening Day?

Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com asks: Why pitch to Albert Pujols?

In other words: There's a reason the Angels finished 10th in the American League in runs scored in 2011.

Let's examine the Angels' lineup. Let's stick to what we know, and right now we don't now if (A) Kendrys Morales will be healthy; or (B) if Mark Trumbo can play third base. In the past 25 years, only Kevin Youkilis and Todd Zeile have played 100 games at first base in one season and 100 games at third base the next season, and both of them had previous experience at the hot corner.

CF Peter Bourjos

The Angels lack an obvious leadoff hitter on the team, as the only regulars with an OBP above .340 were Bobby Abreu and Alberto Callaspo. Bourjos has the speed and his 49 extra-base hits would add an element of power, but can he get on base enough? His .327 OBP is not what you want from a leadoff hitter, and the strikeouts will rub Mike Scioscia the wrong way. Certainly, Abreu and Callaspo are better leadoff options, but neither guy led off once last season, so that's an option not in Sciosca's wheelhouse.

2B Howie Kendrick

The good news? He's now been relatively healthy two years in a row. He hit a career-high 18 home runs and slugged .464. The bad news? His OBP was still just .338 and after a hot start he hit just .267 after May. Kendrick changed his approach last year, swinging harder -- it resulted in a strikeout rate of 20.4 percent versus a career rate 16.9 percent. The overall result was positive, but he's still a free-swinger who doesn't get on base as much as you'd like.

1B Albert Pujols

2008: .357/.462/.653
2009: .327/.443/.658
2010: .312/.414/.596
2011: .299/.366/.541

Yes, Pujols is a special player. Of course he is. But ... aren't those batting lines pretty good evidence that The Machine is not a machine? That he's slowly aging, no matter his workout regimen or his extreme desire to be the best. New Cardinals manager Mike Matheny and former manager Tony La Russa both made a point to say Pujols isn't like other players, that he'll age well. But I look at those numbers and see a player in slight decline. That said, a rebound year wouldn't surprise me, but keep in mind: (1) He won't get to face the Cubs, Astros and Pirates 45 times a year any more and he's moving into a slightly tougher home run park.

RF Torii Hunter

He's now 36 and showing signs of age: His OPS has dropped from .873 to .819 to .765. He can still mash a left-hander (.287/.389/.497) but was pretty ineffective against right-handers (.252/.313/.402). He's lost much of his speed -- five for 12 stealing bases and he grounded into 24 double plays. In fact, batting Pujols (29 double plays) and Hunter back-to-back is a 6-4-3 waiting to happen.

DH Mark Trumbo

We'll slot Trumbo at DH right now. While he hit 29 home runs as a rookie, he's another guy who doesn't get on base enough -- a .291 OBP. Here's a way to look at this: Trumbo created about 71 runs last season. He used up 427 outs to create those runs. The goal of a hitter is to produce runs while not making outs. Among 32 major league first basemen with at least 300 plate appearances, Trumbo ranked 24th with 4.47 runs created per 27 outs.

LF Bobby Abreu/Vernon Wells

How long of a leash do you give Wells after his miserable season? Do you give him one month? Two months? Trouble is, the AL West and wild-card races project to be very close this year, with the Rangers, plus four quality teams in the AL West. Can the Angels afford to wait to see if Wells regains his stroke at age 33? Since 1990, only two outfielders 30 years or older have had 500 plate appearances and an OBP less than .275 -- Wells and Alex Rios (also in 2011). If we lower the threshold to 300 PAs, we get 2007 Craig Monroe (who never played regularly again) and 2005 Steve Finley (who did rebound from a .271 OBP to .320 the next year). Still, there is such a small track of players who played as poorly as Wells that it's difficult to project what he'll do.

As for Abreu, he can still get on base against right-handers (.366 OBP), but his defense is terrible, his power mostly evaporated and he can't hit lefties. In my book, I'd just give the job to Mike Trout. His speed and defense are good enough until his bat comes around, but he'll likely begin the season in Triple-A.

3B Alberto Callaspo/Maicer Izturis

For all the talk about the Angels upgrading third base -- moving Trumbo there or trading for David Wright -- the Izturis/Callaspo platoon wasn't all that bad. Angels' third basemen ranked 11th in OPS in the majors and third in OBP. In fact, and I know Angels fans will find this hard to believe, but Callaspo created 5.22 runs per 27 outs. Better than Trumbo. Now, it's possible Trumbo may improve -- hit for a higher average, draw a few more walks -- but based on 2011 results, the Angels are better off playing Callaspo at third (assuming Trumbo isn't Scott Rolen on defense).

C Chris Iannetta

The big question: How will he hit outside of Coors Field? His home/road splits in 2011 were extreme -- .301 at home, .172 on the road. They haven't been that large over the course of his career, but still sizable (.869 OPS at home, .707 on the road). He has a lot of patience at the plate, although his walk rate was high in small part to usually batting eighth in front of the pitcher. Still, he'll be a big improvement offensively over Jeff Mathis, even if he doesn't match his Rockies numbers.

SS Erick Aybar

He'll also factor into the leadoff position, where he started 55 games in 2011 -- at least against right-handed pitchers (.341 OBP versus righties, .284 versus lefties).

Now, the strength of the lineup is that there's no outstanding weakness ... well, assuming Vernon Wells doesn't get 500 plate appearances again. If Kendrys Morales is healthy, the team will have even more depth, which is a good thing: Hunter can play 130 games instead of 156; Izturis can fill in at third, short and second; maybe Trumbo turns into a sort of four-corner super sub: 20 games at first, 20 games at third, 20 games in each of the corner outfield spots, some time at DH. If Wells and Abreu struggle, Trout is ready on the farm. Having this kind of flexibility is a manager's dream.

On the other, the only outstanding strength is Albert Pujols. He's the only hitter who projects to post an .800 OPS (Kendrick was .802 last season, his career-best). Even the 2010 San Francisco Giants, maligned for their mediocre offense, had four hitters with an .800 OPS -- Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell, Buster Posey and Andres Torres. Tampa Bay didn't have much offense in 2011? They had four .800 OPS hitters in Evan Longoria, Matt Joyce, Ben Zobrist and Casey Kotchman (plus Desmond Jennings in part-time play). The only AL playoff team in the past three seasons with fewer than four .800 OPS regulars was the 2010 Rays, which had Longoria and Carl Crawford and part-time Joyce.

So, yes, it's possible this lineup will score enough runs. Kendrick may have a better season, especially if he bats in front of Pujols. Maybe Bourjos improves or Trout gets called up and hits .285 with some power. Maybe Morales is healthy and assumes the cleanup spot on a regular basis.

All that remains to be seen. Right now, this a lineup with depth but not one that should strike fear in opposing pitchers.

Now in its last year of existence, baseball’s short stack will get rounded out to five teams when the Astros enter the American League in 2013. But in the meantime, it’s another four-way wrestling match. However, it’s also a starkly segregated division. On one side, you’ve got the defending pennant-winning Rangers (twice over) and their chief rivals, the Angels. On the other side, the Athletics have won 74-76 games in four of the last five years, while the Mariners have been stuck in the 60s for wins in three of the last four.

Texas Rangers

1. Rotation: Add a veteran? Or re-sign C.J. Wilson?

It isn’t that what the Rangers have right now isn’t good -- most teams would love to have a young quartet as talented as Neftali Feliz, Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando and Matt Harrison lined up with Colby Lewis. They could probably win the division with that. But is any one of them that stopper you expect to beat a playoff team with? Holland or Feliz might grow into it, or Ogando, but do the Rangers want to count on the Madduxes and the talent, or will they hedge their bets by bringing Wilson back or going after someone like Roy Oswalt?

Likely solution: If they don’t bring Wilson back or win the bidding on a high-profile vet with playoff experience like Oswalt, they’ll opt out and not buy a veteran guaranteed rotation slot just for the sake of it. It’ll be either a significant upgrade or some retread for organizational depth, with nothing in between.

2. First base -- Settle or shop?

Last season, it might have seemed like they did quite nicely without having an everyday answer, rotating Mitch Moreland, Mike Napoli and Michael Young through the slot. However, Young isn’t much of a first baseman, Moreland failed to develop at the plate and Napoli spends a good chunk of his time catching. Rangers first basemen rated a whopping 12th in the American League in OPS, beating out only the A’s grab bag of prospects and the Rays rentals. While they’re not likely to get in on Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols, is there anyone else worth chasing?

Likely solution: Unless the Rangers want to revisit last winter’s drama of shopping Michael Young, it doesn’t seem likely that they’ll end up spending serious money at first base. Seeing if Moreland develops at age 26 while they settle for good defenders in center wouldn’t be the end of the world, but this is the team that might get the biggest benefit from sneaking in on Carlos Pena.

3. Center field -- Settle or shop?

The Rangers will need to sort out whether or not they want to add someone new to the mix. Josh Hamilton made only a month’s worth of starts in the middle pasture, and the Rangers spent much of the season with Endy Chavez and Gary Gentry batting ninth and splitting time in center while Julio Borbon’s season was lost to injuries. Will they settle for Gentry and Borbon in 2012, and take their blend of defense and OBP? The market isn’t exactly rich in alternatives.

Likely solution: Here, they can let it ride or go cheap on another defensive specialist, say, Rick Ankiel, with the hope that he rebounds in the Ballpark’s friendly confines. There’s not a lot of point in overpaying the likes of Coco Crisp to be just slightly better.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

The biggest issue was finding a solution to the Jeff Mathis fetish, but they’ve addressed that with their pickup of Chris Iannetta. Even if Iannetta’s .707 OPS outside of Coors Field might be a splash of cold water for folks expecting the second coming of Mike Piazza, he’s still a bigger slice of that pie at the plate than Mathis will ever be.

1. A premium bat.

You’d think that with Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and Carlos Beltran on the market this would be easy, but the Angels are stacked with bodies (if not bats) at the corners. Figuring where to go for a premium hitter is the real trick, because the Angels have stuck themselves with so many ex-famous people, and that’s without getting into what they need to do with Mark Trumbo if Kendrys Morales’ comeback works out. The rumors of interest in the Mets’ David Wright to play third base makes some sense as a deal from depth, but acquiring Wright for Peter Bourjos -- which is really only a good idea if they know they can work out an extension with Wright -- wouldn’t erase their overlapping issues at first base, DH and the outfield corners. Aramis Ramirez is notionally the same sort of fix, except his play at third base leaves a lot to be desired; it wouldn’t be long before he wound up playing a lot of DH or first base.

Likely solution: It won’t be easy to work something out, but third base is a good place to go. But they can’t settle for getting one year of Wright before free agency for five of Bourjos and call it a day. Ideally, Jerry Dipoto needs to swap out one of the aging stiffs and bring in a real thumper, no easy feat. If he manages it, he might automatically win the label for Hot Stove MVP. If he also gets Morales back and bopping in 2012, the offense will be better still.

2. Starting pitcher (Joel Pineiro, free agent, plus Tyler Chatwood was dealt)

Even if Garrett Richards is almost ready and regardless of whether or not you want to believe Jerome Williams is an answer, they’re best left to fight it out for the last slot. Because of the mess on offense, one way to compensate would be to add a premium starter to help keep more games in reach. Unfortunately, the market isn’t stocked with quality options, but chasing after C.J. Wilson is an obvious avenue to pursue, giving the rotation a quality lefty to balance their reliance on Jered Weaver, Dan Haren and Ervin Santana up front.

Likely solution: Signing Wilson would be the easy solution. They hold 2013 options on Haren and Santana, but beyond that, it’s Weaver and nobody in terms of commitments. Signing Wilson would address that while providing balance.

3. Making room for Mike Trout.

The ex-famous people problem is the real issue here. Torii Hunter will be turning 32 next summer; he isn’t going to get any better. Trumbo’s just the new Dave Kingman if he builds on his rookie season. Bobby Abreu’s power is a distant memory, and Vernon Wells’ dead-cat bounce in 2011 only went so high. These are the guys in Trout’s way to everyday play, not Bourjos.

Likely solution: It’s easy to say these things will sort themselves out, but by July, it’s doubtful that Trout will be any more ready than he already is. Eating the $63 million it’ll cost to employ Wells the next three years might be more affordable because Trout’s under contractual control for the next six years.

Oakland Athletics

1. Bodies to play in the outfield. (David DeJesus signed with the Cubs, and Coco Crisp and Josh Willingham are free agents.)

If you’re an outfielder, the A’s need you, because all three regulars are outbound. Ryan Sweeney might get to man one corner, and you might hope that Jermaine Mitchell mounts a bid on the job in center. But the A’s really need to sign an outfielder or two, ideally one who can play center. Re-signing Crisp as a placeholder seems to be getting a lot of consideration, which would be a return to the lamentable legacy of Willie Wilson serving time in this outfield in the ’90s, and cause for joy for nobody. After a .960 OPS between Double- and Triple-A, Mitchell’s interesting as an athletic, late-developing farmhand, but he’ll be 27 next year. There’s also Michael Taylor, once considered one of the top prospects in baseball, and currently more of a source of frustration after two mediocre seasons at Sacramento.

Likely solution: The only likelihood is that the fixes will be cheap. Whether it’s a matter of absorbing the tail end of other people’s bad-news deals if they’re footing the bill, renting hitters a year removed from free agency like DeJesus and Willingham, or sifting through the bargain bin, get ready for a new temp crew.

2. Power: 12th in the AL and 24th in MLB in Isolated Power (ISO)

Even if they wind up with outfielders like the ones we’ve noted, it isn’t like Crisp or Mitchell or Sweeney provide any power, which the A’s will sorely need with Willingham’s departure. Between Brandon Allen, Chris Carter, Daric Barton and Kila Ka’aihue, they might have in-house answers for first base and DH, but a multitude of options is not the same thing as having answers.

Likely solution: Ditching Hideki Matsui has helped open room for the crowd of first base/DH options, and a full season from Scott Sizemore at third base should help, but don’t be surprised if the A’s spring for one slugger to man first, DH or one of the outfield corners. It might help them remain 12th in the league.

3. San Jose or bust.

This is really the most important issue for the franchise this and every winter until it’s resolved, but team owner Lewis Wolff is slowly wading through lawsuits by proxy and MLB’s indecision over territorial rights to Santa Clara County to complete a ponderously slow attempt to move south within the East Bay region. The mayor of San Jose asked for this to be fixed two years ago; he was politely ignored. The city’s now trying to sell land to Wolff for the express purpose of building a ballpark, but it’s unclear if he’ll be allowed to move his team to the city out of an exaggerated consideration for the Giants’ claim. If the A’s were generous in ceding rights to San Jose when the Giants were moving into their new digs (away from San Jose), the Giants have been selfish in subsequently asserting their claims.

Likely solution: There isn’t one. The A’s and their fans as well as the cities of San Jose and Oakland remain hostage to the original sin of Bud Selig and company for sloppily and generously granting the Giants these rights in the first place. It’s up to the industry to fix that error, but so far there’s been an abdication of authority from MLB in the face of noisy assertiveness from the Giants. The Giants are well within their rights and understandably acting out of self-interest -- either to try and force the A’s out of the market, or extort an ill-gotten payday -- but this needs fixing. With the CBA and Astros’ sale done, this should be the top item of business for the commissioner. Let’s see if he treats it that way.

Seattle Mariners

1. A middle-of-the order thumper. (.115 ISO, 28th in MLB)

You can blame playing in Safeco, but that goes only so far, as the Mariners’ .658 OPS on the road was only slightly better than their awful .623 OPS in home games. Much of the problem is self-inflicted -- they’re the team that values punchless shortstop Brendan Ryan for his virtues afield more highly than any other, after all. While the holdovers in the outfield almost all endured horrific 2011 seasons, a group that includes Ichiro Suzuki, Franklin Gutierrez, Trayvon Robinson, Mike Carp and Michael Saunders is capable of doing better. Which really leaves third base, DH and possibly first as the places where GM Jack Zduriencik might add an impact bat. This has fed into a lot of speculation over Zduriencik’s former Milwaukee connection to Prince Fielder.

Likely solution: Landing Fielder would be a major coup, but it would be a fairly extreme act of faith by Fielder that Zduriencik’s going to get this thing turned around during the life of his contract, assuming Seattle even has the money for that kind of offer. It’s more likely that the Mariners will have to settle. A right-handed bat would be great for their lineup’s balance, but Safeco is death on right-hander power, suggesting that someone like Aramis Ramirez wouldn’t be a good fit. Guys like Casey Blake and Ryan Ludwick are familiar to manager Eric Wedge from their days in Cleveland; they’re also not really answers. Moving Carp to DH and looking at J.D. Drew or Jason Kubel would be a little more interesting.

2. A veteran starter. (Traded Erik Bedard and Doug Fister away.)

This is really about making sure they get innings until a few more of the kids are ready for call-ups. Ideally, any veteran would also be someone they could flip at the deadline. Top prospects like Danny Hultzen and James Paxton might earn September call-ups, but the Mariners need someone to take the ball in the meantime. Because they have a great venue for pitchers and a strong defense to offer as inducements beyond cash, they should be able to find someone interested.

Likely outcome: They’ll get the inning guys like Aaron Harang, Paul Maholm and Jon Garland should be calling the Mariners rather than the other way around; finding somebody will be more a matter of finding someone willing to sign for what they’re willing to offer. It would be interesting to see if the M’s could induce Hiroki Kuroda to sign on rather than return to Japan now that the Dodgers are out of the picture.

3. Third base: Open.

Prospects Alex Liddi, Francisco Martinez and Vinnie Catricala are all a bit rough at the hot corner, and the Mariners probably have zero interest in giving Figgins another crack at the job after witnessing his .595 OPS in two seasons in Seattle. Kyle Seager might get the lion’s share of playing time by default if the Mariners don’t add a vet for temp duty. It won’t cost them the pennant.

Likely solution: Third base is an area of need for a lot of teams, and if the Mariners are willing to eat most of the $18 million they still owe Figgins, they’d almost certainly find an interested party. They shouldn’t waste the roster spot indefinitely if they’re not going to play him. A veteran placeholder like Blake might fit here on a one-year deal, assuming Zduriencik doesn’t conjure up a better solution with some wheeling and dealing.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

You probably didn’t notice that the Pittsburgh Pirates recently signed first baseman and outfielder Nick Evans to a minor league contract within the past two weeks. There wasn’t much reason to do so. Evans was nondescript with the bat, hitting .256 with four home runs and 25 RBIs for the Mets in 2011.

But Evans did something within his limited time that was significant to those of us trying to learn about advanced defensive stats. It struck me as being the defensive equivalent to hitting .400 over 150-or-so at-bats. In 337 2/3 innings, the equivalent of 37 ½ nine-inning games at first base, Evans finished with seven defensive runs saved. That’s a good number for a first baseman. It tied him for most in the majors for the season with Angels first baseman Mark Trumbo.

It’s also significantly better than what the Pirates got from their first basemen last season. Theirs ranked 28th in the majors, costing the team 11 runs.

Defensive runs saved for first basemen calculates the ability to turn batted balls into outs and the success at getting outs on bunts.

Evans scored well primarily because he did well handling the 46 balls that were hit into his “zone,” with “zone” defined as the areas on the field in which first basemen turned batted balls into an out more than half of the time.

Evans’ revised zone rating was 84.8% (of the 46 balls in his zone, he converted 39 into outs).

That rate was tied for fifth-best among the 46 first basemen that played at least 300 innings at the position.

It was within striking distance of MLB leader Todd Helton (85.9 percent) and considerably ahead of Evans’ crosstown counterpart, Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira (77.0 percent). For every 46 balls hit into his zone last season, Teixeira got 35 outs, four fewer than Evans did in his (admittedly small) sample.

The way that Baseball Info Solutions, which calculates a plus-minus rating for every fielder, looks at it, they divide batted balls into three areas for infielders -- balls hit to the left and right of the area where most outs are recorded, and balls hit directly where a first baseman most often records outs.

Evans was a plus-six on balls hit into the latter area, meaning he was six plays better than the average first baseman. That factored significantly into Evans’ defensive runs saved rating, as did his defense on bunts, which was similarly above average.

Evans’ success jibed with that which he’d had as a minor leaguer as well.

The researchers at Baseball Info Solutions, whose founder John Dewan came up with the defensive runs saved metric, acknowledge that the stat isn’t necessarily the perfect measure of a first baseman’s skills.

There are many other components to first base defense (a recent article in the blog “DRays Bay” attempted to put a value on each), the most recognizable to fans being the ability to handle throws from one’s teammates.

So we dug a little deeper.

In addition to coming up with sabermetric stats, Baseball Info Solutions hires “video scouts” (for the most part, former high school and college players) to chart games from television viewing, tagging notable plays into more than 80 subcategories of “Good Fielding Plays” (GFPs) and “Defensive Misplays & Errors.” (DM&Es)
There are tightly defined rules, devised by sabermetrician Bill James, to what constitutes a GFP and a DM.

First basemen were credited with just over 2,000 Good Fielding Plays and just under 1,100 Defensive Misplays & Errors in 2011, the ratio of good to bad being about 1.9-to-1.

In his time at first base, Evans’ ratio of GFPs to DMs was 24-to-5, or almost 5-to-1.

The reason for this was that in the eyes of multiple viewers (video scouts rotate so not to watch the same team or player too often), Evans was adept at a key aspect to his position not measured by Defensive Runs Saved or UZR/150- catching throws.

Evans was credited with 11 GFPs for “handling a difficult throw” (usually either by scooping it out of the dirt or coming off the base) in which the Mets got the batter out, and four GFPs for “catches wild throw,” meaning that he prevented a batter or baserunner from gaining an extra base by coming off the bag to block/catch an errant throw.

Samples of Evans handiwork in this area can be seen at these three links.

Evans was tagged for only one DM&E for “failing to catch the throw” from a teammate. His ratio of good-to-bad plays was 15-to-1. By comparison, the average ratio for a first baseman on these plays was 5-to-1. Reds first baseman Joey Votto, who won the NL’s Gold Glove, had 29 GFPs and 10 DM&Es related to handling throws.

We’re not saying that Evans can maintain the sort of success from his small sample over a full season.

But for the Pirates, who also showed a defensive-minded commitment with the signing of shortstop Clint Barmes, it’s an interesting sort of gamble that could be worth watching more closely as the 2012 season unfolds

As a 25-year-old, Angels first baseman Mark Trumbo had a solid rookie season: He hit 29 home runs, finished tied for 18th in the American League in extra-base hits and displayed good range on defense.

However, those numbers came with a big negative: 25 walks that led to a .291 on-base percentage, 68th out of 73 AL regulars.

Knowing it's near impossible to win with a first baseman who posts a .291 OBP, the Angels have to consider: (1) How likely is Trumbo to improve? (2) Do they spend the money to go after Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols? (3) Could Trumbo handle third base?

I think the first question is the biggest key here. If the Angels think Trumbo is a productive hitter, they don't need to worry about the second question (especially if they also count on Kendrys Morales returning).

Trumbo's skill-set is relatively odd: Despite the .291 OBP, his park-adjusted OPS was better than league average -- 113 (where 100 is average). The first step in determining Trumbo's future as a hitter is to look at similar hitters. Since 1990, only three other 25-year-olds posted an OBP of .310 or less and an OPS+ of at least 100: Matt Kemp (2010), Jose Lopez (2009), Torii Hunter (2001) and Matt Williams (1991).

It's an interesting list. Kemp, of course, turned into an MVP candidate, but he's the least similar as he'd already had two much more productive seasons prior to his 2010 slump. Hunter gradually increased his walk rate from 4.8 percent in 2001 to 7.8 percent in 2003 to 9.6 percent in 2011. That improved strike-zone judgment was key in his development as a hitter. Lopez was well into his career by 2009, but after a 25-homer season that year, he fell apart and has hit .233 with a .263 OBP the past two seasons.

While Lopez is the worst-case scenario, Williams is the most interesting comparison. He hit .268/.310/.499 in 1991, numbers slightly more impressive in their context than Trumbo's line. However, his 128/33 strikeout/walk ratio nearly matches Trumbo's 120/25 mark. Williams never did walk much (season high of 43), but eventually cut his 1991 K:BB rate from 3.88 to a career mark of 2.91.

Of course, four players is a small sample. Let's expand the parameters to since 1990, 24 or 25 years old, first or second year in the majors, 300 PAs, OBP of .310 or less and OPS+ of at least 90, we get this list: Trevor Plouffe (2011), J.P. Arencibia (2011), Josh Fields (2007), Jared Sandberg (2007), Tony Clark (1996), Bret Boone (1993), Ryan Thompson (1993), Eric Karros (1992), Leo Gomez (1991), Ray Lankford (1991), Wes Chamberlain (1991), Jeff King (1990), Greg Vaughn (1990).

Obviously, it was hard to post a low OBP and maintain an OPS close to league average during the high-offense era of the mid-1990s to mid-2000s. If you stick to raw numbers (let's say at least 25 home runs, but fewer than 35 walks at age 25), a couple of interesting names pop up: Juan Gonzalez and Sammy Sosa. (But also Chad Tracy, Brad Fullmer, Geoff Jenkins and Rondell White.) There's a big difference with Gonzalez and Sosa, however: Gonzalez had a .324 OBP and Sosa .339 in the years in question. Those a sizable increases from .291.

Basically, I still like the Williams comparison as a best-case scenario. Realistically, that probably won't happen. Even though Trumbo was a rookie, you have to remember he's 25 years old. He's essentially a mature hitter, which is why the projections for him predict similar numbers: ESPN contributor Dan Szymborksi's ZIPS system has Trumbo at .253/.295/.437 and the Bill James system a slightly more optimistic .269/.313/.493.

Even that second line looks more like a third baseman than a first baseman. As far as that possible conversion, for a franchise that has long emphasized defense, it seems a long-shot opportunity considering Trumbo never played a game there in the minor leagues.

The Angels already have a projected payroll of $128 million according to Baseball-Reference.com (thank you, Vernon Wells), but investing in Fielder or Pujols makes sense. If they want to compete with the Angels, this team needs a big bat; Trumbo is not that big bat. If they can suck up the budget for one season, Hunter comes off the payroll after 2012, so that could open up right field for Trumbo (he's played a bit in the minors). With Peter Bourjos and Mike Trout, the Angels could survive with one subpar defensive outfielder.

And a lineup with Trout, Trumbo, Fielder, Bourjos, Morales, Howie Kendrick and Erick Aybar suddenly looks like one that can win a division title.

The American League rookie crop has a chance to be one of the deepest, most exciting groups of rookies one league has produced in a long time (although the 2010 NL group with Buster Posey, Jason Heyward, Mike Stanton, Starlin Castro and Jaime Garcia was an excellent one as well).

On the hitting side, Dustin Ackley, Eric Hosmer, Desmond Jennings and Brett Lawrie all have All-Star potential, and guys like Mark Trumbo, Jemile Weeks, Jason Kipnis, Mike Moustakas, Lonnie Chisenhall, J.P. Arencibia and Salvador Perez aren't far behind or showcased plenty of potential. Pitchers included Jeremy Hellickson, Ivan Nova, Michael Pineda, Zach Britton and Jordan Walden. Those lists don't even include prospect studs Mike Trout and Jesus Montero, who will both remain rookies next season.

It makes for a crowded rookie race, especially since several of the hitters excelled after in-season promotions, which limited their overall numbers. Here are the voting results from the SweetSpot network (based on the same structure as the real voting: five points for first, three for second and one for third):

1. Michael Pineda, Mariners: 77 points (13 first-place votes)
2. Jeremy Hellickson, Rays: 51 points (6)
3. Eric Hosmer, Royals: 25 points (3)
4. Dustin Ackley, Mariners: 23 points (1)
5. Ivan Nova, Yankees: 11 points
(tie) Mark Trumbo, Angels: 11 points (1)
7. Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays: 8 points
8. Desmond Jennings, Rays: 5 points
9. Zach Britton, Orioles: 1 point

In our vote, it was essentially a two-player race; I suspect that in the actual vote, Nova will receive much more support. Let's start by looking at the three starting pitchers, all three of whom were regulars in their team's rotations most of the season.

Hellickson: 13-10, 2.95 ERA, 189 IP, 146 H, 117 SO, 72 BB, 21 HR, 1.15 WHIP
Pineda: 9-10, 3.74 ERA, 171 IP, 133 H, 173 SO, 55 BB, 18 HR, 1.10 WHIP
Nova: 16-4, 3.70 ERA, 165.1 IP, 163 H, 98 SO, 57 BB, 13 HR, 1.33 WHIP

Despite that glossy record, I think it’s pretty easy to dismiss Nova. He doesn’t have Hellickson’s ERA or Pineda’s peripherals; he pitched 24 fewer innings than Hellickson; he pitched in the AL East, but so did Hellickson. (We can ignore win-loss record, right? We all learned that last year when Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young Award, correct?) As important as Nova was to the Yankees, I think he's pretty clearly No. 3 here.

So let’s compare Hellickson and Pineda.

Baseball-Reference WAR
Hellickson: 4.2
Nova: 3.6
Lawrie 2.8
Pineda 2.8
Ackley 2.5
Jennings 2.3
Trumbo 2.1
Hosmer 1.3

FanGraphs WAR
Pineda: 3.4
Lawrie: 2.7
Ackley: 2.7
Nova: 2.7
Jennings: 2.4
Trumbo: 2.3
Hosmer: 1.6
Hellickson: 1.4

Hellickson's season was an anomaly in one important regard: He allowed just 7.0 hits per nine innings while striking out 5.6 batters per nine. How odd is that combo? Since 2000, only six other pitchers have thrown at least 150 innings while allowing 7.5 hits or less per nine innings and fewer than six strikeouts per nine. The others: Johnny Cueto (2011), Tim Hudson (2010), Trevor Cahill (2010), Barry Zito (2003), Derek Lowe (2002) and Damian Moss (2002).

Hellickson succeeded because his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was .223, the lowest among major league starters. That explains the difference in his WAR total between the two sites. FanGraphs' WAR is based upon FIP (fielding independent pitching), which attempts to remove defensive support from a pitcher’s performance and assesses "a pitcher's talent level by looking at things a pitcher can control: strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and home runs."

So while Hellickson's ERA was 2.95, FIP looks at his mediocre 117-72 strikeout/walk ratio and 21 home runs allowed and projects a 4.44 run average. Pineda, meanwhile, had a 173/55 strikeout/walk ratio and 18 home runs allowed, and his FIP comes in at 3.42 -- lower than his actual ERA.

Basically, FIP regards Hellickson as being hit lucky; indeed, if you were projecting which pitcher will have the lower ERA next season, Pineda is the obvious choice (assuming Hellickson doesn't ramp up his strikeout rate). As a projection system, FIP is much better than simply looking at ERA.

But when evaluating a current season, do you simply dismiss Hellickson’s results and say he wasn't that good? Personally, I think that’s a big leap. Hellickson’s run prevention may have involved a degree of luck -- it’s worth pointing out that Pineda also allowed a low .258 BABIP, ninth-lowest among MLB starters (both were also extreme flyball pitchers, which can lower a pitcher's BABIP) -- but he did allow a 2.95 ERA over 29 starts, pitching in the tough AL East. He made eight starts against the Red Sox and Yankees (3-2, 3.73 ERA in 48.1 innings). Pineda only had to make one start each against the Red Sox and Yankees. Yes, Hellickson benefited from him his home park and an excellent Tampa Bay defense; but Pineda also benefited from a pitcher-friendly home park and good defense.

Hellickson had a left-on-base percentage of 82 percent -- second-best in the majors behind Jered Weaver’s 82.6 percent. He allowed a .167 average with runners in scoring position, with just three home runs in 144 at-bats. Again, there is some good fortune involved here -- a .167 average allowed is not a repeatable skill -- but it did happen. It was a real result that helped the Rays win games and I can’t so easily dismiss what happened on the field.

In some aspects, while last year's AL Cy Young debate was billed as the battle of new numbers (win-loss record for pitchers is overrated), it wasn't really the battle of new numbers: King Felix excelled in all the other conventional statistics like ERA, strikeouts and innings pitched. To deny Hellickson the rookie award would be the real shout-out to sabermetrics, ignoring his ERA and attributing his numbers completely to luck and defense. I don't think that will happen in the real vote; in fact, I'll be surprised if Pineda finishes in the top three, since -- let's face it -- win-loss record still means something to a lot of voters.

I’m a Mariners fan. I watched Pineda pitch 10-12 times this season and he and Ackley provided two bright hopes in a miserable season. If he stays healthy, the big right-hander is going to be a Cy Young contender in the future. But I put Hellickson No. 1. As for the rest of my ballot, Lawrie and Jennings were great in short stints (Lawrie's WAR includes a positive rating for his defense, which goes against the scouting reports as he came up through the minors), Ackley in a little longer stint, Hosmer over 128 games. Both B-R and FanGraphs hate Hosmer’s defense (going against the general scouting reviews of his glovework), and thus affecting his WAR rating. Trumbo’s 29 home runs and 87 RBIs led all rookies, but that .291 on-base percentage is damaging. Trumbo had some big hits for the Angels, but I can't put a guy with a .291 OBP in the top three.

My ballot
1. Jeremy Hellickson
2. Michael Pineda
3. Eric Hosmer

Predicted results
1. Jeremy Hellickson
2. Ivan Nova
3. Mark Trumbo

* * * *

In the National League, Braves closer Craig Kimbrel is expected to cruise to the award after leading the NL with 46 saves, posting a 2.10 ERA and striking out 127 batters in 77 innings, the sixth-highest strikeout rate ever with at least 50 innings pitched. (By the way, fellow rookie Kenley Jansen had the best rate ever, with 16.10 per nine innings.)

Here is the SweetSpot network voting results:

1. Craig Kimbrel, Braves: 108 points (18 first-place votes)
2. Freddie Freeman, Braves: 35 points (3)
3. Danny Espinosa, Nationals: 26 points (3)
4. Vance Worley, Phillies: 16 points
5. Brandon Beachy, Braves: 14 points
6. Wilson Ramos, Nationals: 13 points
7. Kenley Jansen, Dodgers: 2 points
8. Josh Collmenter, Diamondbacks: 1 point
(tie) Lucas Duda, Mets: 1 point

I suspect the actual voting results will follow a similar pattern, with Kimbrel possibly emerging as the unanimous winner. Espinosa flew under the radar all season, but hit for power (21 home runs) and played a very good second base. Like Hosmer, Freeman’s glovework doesn’t rate well by the fielding metrics. Overall, Espinosa's package of power and defense at a premium position makes him more valuable than Freeman. Worley and Beachy were terrific in partial seasons and Ramos gave the Nationals a second foundation piece for the future.

My ballot
1. Craig Kimbrel
2. Danny Espinosa
3. Freddie Freeman

Predicted results
1. Craig Kimbrel
2. Freddie Freeman
3. Danny Espinosa

The American League Rookie of the Year race appears to be a battle between Tampa Bay right-hander Jeremy Hellickson, Yankees right-hander Ivan Nova and Angels first baseman Mark Trumbo, with Seattle's Michael Pineda and Kansas City's Eric Hosmer lining up after those three.

But here are two fun statistics, courtesy of ESPN Stats & Info maestro Mark Simon:

1. The best WAR (wins above replacement) among major league position players over the past 30 days belongs to Blue Jays third baseman Brett Lawrie, at 2.1, edging out Ian Kinsler and Troy Tulowitzki.

2. Mariners second baseman Dustin Ackley's OPS+ (on-base + slugging, adjusted for home ballpark) of 139 ranks 10th among AL hitters with at least 300 plate appearances, not far behind MVP candidate Jacoby Ellsbury's 144 and better than hitters such as Dustin Pedroia, Robinson Cano, Josh Hamilton and Michael Young.

Lawrie and Ackley won't get much support in the rookie voting since they don't have as much playing time as the other top candidates, but FanGraphs rates Ackley and Lawrie as more valuable than Trumbo, despite the gaps in games played. Ackley has also impressed on defense, a good sign since there were some concerns about his glove.

In fact, if I had to pick which AL rookie I'd most want over the next six years, I think I'd rank the top six like this:

1. Lawrie. At just 21, he looks like a beast at the plate, a guy who has the potential to turn into one of the elite hitters in the game. He's hitting .330/.403/.678 with eight home runs in 33 games. There have been doubts about whether his glove is good enough for third base, but he's played well there and he's even 6-for-6 stealing bases. He's from British Columbia, which will make him a huge fan favorite in Toronto. The Brewers don't regret acquiring Shaun Marcum, but the Jays are going to love Lawrie for a long time.

2. Hosmer. Another 21-year-old, Hosmer has raised his average nearly 20 points in the past three weeks, lifting his season line to .285/.334/.457. He's got the sweet swing, the size (6-4, 230 pounds) to hit for power and the athleticism to be a solid glove at first base. He plays the game with confidence and looks like the kind of on-field leader the Royals may finally build a winner around.

3. Ackley. The only issue is how much power he'll develop, but at the minimum he'll be an on-base machine who should hit around 15 home runs per season. He has good speed although hasn't shown that base-stealing instinct yet (four stolen bases).

4. Pineda. There is one obvious reason to take Pineda's future over that of Hellickson or Nova. Here, let's run their season stats:

Hellickson: 12-10, 2.95 ERA, 164.1 IP, 130 H, 18 HR, 56 BB, 107 SO
Nova: 15-4, 3.94 ERA, 144 IP, 144 H, 13 HR, 50 BB, 87 SO
Pineda: 9-9, 3.74 ERA, 159 IP, 122 H, 17 HR, 52 BB, 163 SO

See the difference in strikeout rate? Always bet on the power pitcher. Pineda's overpowering fastball/slider combo has led to the second-highest strikeout rate among AL starters at 9.2 per nine innings. Hitters have caught up to him a bit in the second half, sitting on the fastball, so he'll need to refine his slider and improve his changeup, but that K rate gives him a huge edge of Hellickson and Nova.

5. Desmond Jennings. He's been terrific since finally getting recalled, hitting .302/.392/.544, with nine homers and 15 steals in 44 games. At 24, he's three years older and has much more minor league experience than Lawrie or Hosmer, which is why I like those guys more, but Jennings is displaying the all-around skills projected of him.

6. Hellickson. He's not overpowering, but he knows how to get batters out with his wide arsenal of pitches. He's taken to the Trop -- 2.27 ERA at home versus 3.62 on the road -- but it will be difficult to keep that ERA under 3.00 long-term unless he improves the strikeout rate.

The reason I don't rate Trumbo as high as those guys is pretty simple: He's older (25), which means his skills are already close to peaking, and he doesn't control the strike zone very well. With just 24 walks in 512 plate appearances, his on-base percentage is .295. He's been a great story -- he grew up 10 minutes from Angel Stadium, rooting for the team -- and has provided many clutch hits and big home runs this season. I just don't see him as a future star like the six guys above.

(By the way, I didn't include Mike Trout here, although it is possible he'll extinguish his rookie eligibility. He has 87 at-bats; the cutoff for rookie eligibility is 130; of course, as long as Vernon Wells continues to play regularly, Trout's rookie status for 2012 should remain safe.)

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

If there is anything to be learned from last Friday’s exercise when I ranked my top 10 choices for each respective league MVPs, it was that plenty of fans just aren’t interested in non-traditional stats like Wins Above Replacement. Some just want home runs and RBIs. And that’s OK. Stats like WAR aren’t the most important thing to me, either, but certainly a basis for discussion. Perhaps defense shouldn’t count a great deal in MVP voting. Oh, and Yankees fans love their Yankees and nobody else, Red Sox fans love their Red Sox, Phillies fans ... well, you get the picture. You can’t please everyone!

This week I’m taking a deeper look at the top rookies, because I think it’s definitely fun and always a good conversation starter. For example, some people will look only at home runs for this award. Others will look at wins. I judge the rookie of the year candidates similar to the MVP leaders from a week ago: Myriad factors are relevant and essential, from traditional stats to otherwise.

In the National League, it appears to be a runaway for Atlanta Braves relief pitcher Craig Kimbrel, based on his dominance along with the fact no reliever has more saves and he’ll soon break the rookie record in the category -- Neftali Feliz of the Texas Rangers had 40 last season. Yes, Kimbrel’s teammate Freddie Freeman has had a nice season after a slow start, and in other years he would have won it all, but Kimbrel is on pace for 47 saves and a reliever-high 123 strikeouts, to go along with his 1.81 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. It’s over, people. It’s not just rookies or closers, he’s been baseball’s top relief pitcher. I just hope he doesn’t go all Marmol on us in September to make the race close.

As for the rest of the NL top 10 -- and remember, things can change -- I hadn’t realized just how poor a defender and baserunner Freeman had been. Still, he’s got the counting stats, and I can’t put a guy hitting .223 second, even if he leads all big league rookies in WAR. Danny Espinosa could be a terrific player if he hits .270, and I hope he eventually will. After that, we’re pitching heavy. I don’t think any of the NL rookie starting pitchers have distanced themselves, or even pitched enough. If Brandon Beachy could have made 30 starts, he could have been second on my list. Vance Worley will get a bit too much attention because of a flashy win-loss record. Fernando Salas has not been Kimbrel, so don’t go there. And while I find it hard to believe Darwin Barney will play this well every season, hey, give him a break. He really hasn’t been bad at all.

My choice for now: Kimbrel.
The numbers say: Kimbrel.
The voters would say: Kimbrel. Though Freeman and perhaps Worley, if he goes something like 13-3, will get (too much) support, too.

* * * *

In the American League, the race is considerably closer with a number of worthy candidates. First of all, Alexi Ogando of the Texas Rangers is not a rookie, even though his 2010 season fell short of the 50 innings minimum. Based on service-time requirement he lost rookie status. If Ogando was eligible, however, he would get my vote. Hey, no rookie hitter or pitcher -- Kimbrel included -- has a better WAR than Ogando. Alas, Seattle Mariners right-hander Michael Pineda certainly is a rookie, and he gets my vote today, despite struggling with a 6.69 ERA since July. Pineda’s ERA has spiked, but he still has more strikeouts than innings, more innings than any rookie and a cool 1.11 WHIP. Back in March I predicted Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Jeremy Hellickson would earn the award, but Pineda has been better. Plus, if I had chosen Hellickson over Pineda, not only would I have been wrong, but SweetSpot writer/editor Dave Schoenfield loves the M’s and wouldn’t talk to me for a month. Hmm, on second thought ...

I admit Mark Trumbo is an interesting case. Surely there have been other sluggers to win top rookie honors with fewer home runs. Trumbo stepped in when Kendrys Morales couldn’t play and leads the Angels in home runs and RBIs. But he doesn’t lead in on-base percentage; I can’t get past that .295 mark. Wow. Still, it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if Trumbo earns the award if he hits 30 home runs. I barely ranked Toronto Blue Jays catcher J.P. Arencibia, despite his 19 home runs and demanding position. He hasn’t been a good catcher though and the .210 batting average and .274 OBP hurt the team more than the power helps it.

By the way, the No. 2 rookie hitter in WAR according to Fangraphs.com is Mariners second baseman Dustin Ackley, a future star. Ackley hasn’t played enough yet for real award consideration, but he’s going to be very, very good. As for other random AL rookie thoughts, sorry, Ivan Nova has not been on par with Pineda, despite the 12 victories; the case for him against Hellickson, a pair of low-K right-handers, is closer. As for Jordan Walden, nobody in baseball has more blown saves. It’s been a good year otherwise, but not a great one, and again, he’s not Kimbrel in terms of the WHIP and strikeouts.

My choice for now: Pineda.
The numbers say: Pineda and Ackley lead AL rookies in WAR.
The voters would say: If Trumbo whacks 30 home runs, and Pineda barely pitches in September, the slugger will probably win it going away.

Follow Eric Karabell on Twitter @karabellespn.

The Major League Baseball All-Star Game is right around the corner, and while the blogosphere is bursting with opinions of who should and shouldn't make the team, I thought it might be fun to start another debate. Who would make an imaginary 2011 all-rookie all-star team? Sure, MLB has the Futures Game, but some of these players are years away from putting up major league numbers and some may never be seen or heard from again -- such is the wonderful world of prospects. The 2011 all-rookie all-star team will feature only players playing Major League Baseball and who are rookie eligible.

Catcher: Wilson Ramos, Nationals

Ramos came out of the gates strong in April to the tune of .358/.426/.527. He hasn't done much at the plate since, dropping his overall line to .238/.317/.389. However, his defensive game has been very solid and he has thrown out 13 of 32 would-be base stealers (41 percent). Ramos was recently a first-round pick in ESPN's Franchise Player Draft.

First Base: Freddie Freeman, Braves

Freeman has a bit of an advantage here, as he started the season in the big leagues unlike another strong contender, Eric Hosmer. Even so, Freeman has put up very solid numbers for a 21-year-old in his first big-league season. He's hitting .272/.339/.434 overall with nine home runs, but he has improved significantly after a slow April, raising his slugging percentage each month. He leads all rookie first-baseman in weighted on base average, wOBA, just edging out Mark Trumbo.

Second Base: Danny Espinosa, Nationals

Quite frankly, this one wasn't even close. Espinosa was quiet out of the gates, but he continued to play slick defense and the power numbers eventually began to soar. His 15 home runs are the most ever by a rookie second baseman prior to the All-Star break, and his .227 isolated power, ISO, puts him in the top 20 in all of baseball. However, Espinosa might have to miss our imaginary all-rookie all-star team, as he may be in line to take a spot on the National League's very real All-Star roster. If that were to happen, Espinosa's replacement would be Dustin Ackley, who has looked strong at the plate since being called to the big leagues (.300/.378/.575), but in a very small sample size of 45 plate appearances.

Shortstop: Dee Gordon, Dodgers

This was a tough call, as there is no real standout rookie at the position and no one is even close to 200 plate appearances on the year. While stats always play a role in determining an all-star, sometimes fans just want to see players that bring excitement to the field. That's why the Dodgers rookie gets the nod here. Gordon has been pretty dreadful at the plate (.243/.263/.297), he's still a raw talent, and he has the type of speed that's easy on the eyes.

Third Base: Justin Turner, Mets

With a bigger sample size, I feel that Mike Moustakas probably would have snagged this spot, but Turner had been extremely productive before injuring his thumb early in June. He leads all rookie third basemen with 0.6 wins above replacement, WAR.

Left Field: Craig Gentry, Rangers

Sometimes players get a surprise opportunity at playing time in the big leagues. Sometimes they make the most of it and sometimes they don't. Gentry has definitely made the most of his time with the Rangers this season, putting up a .355 OBP and nine stolen bases in only 28 games while playing stellar defense.

Center Field: Ben Revere, Twins

When it comes to game-changing speed, Revere has it. He has nine stolen bases in 40 games and has shown exceptional range in center to go along with a respectable .281 average.

Right Field: Josh Reddick, Red Sox

Allen Craig was well on his way to earning a selection at one of the corner outfield spots, but he's out with a knee fracture. This leaves the selection to a group with a very small sample size. Reddick only has 42 plate appearances on the season, but he's been channeling his inner Randy Jackson, putting up a molten-hot lava bomb line of .444/.476/.772 and has already posted 1.2 WAR.

Designated Hitter: Mark Trumbo, Angels

Trumbo just missed being named the starting first baseman of my all-rookie all-stars, but he deserves a spot on the team and fits in nicely as the designated hitter. He's second among rookies in home runs and third in weighted on-base average, wOBA, with a minimum of 200 plate appearances.

Starting Pitcher: Michael Pineda, Mariners

Several rookie starters have had very good seasons to date, but none have been as utterly dominant as Pineda. His 8.7 K/9 is second only to Brandon Beachy among rookie starters -- although Beachy has only thrown 56 1/3 innings due to time on the DL -- and his 25.7 percent whiff rate is the best of any rookie starter. Pineda has also thrown the most innings of any rookie starter. Simply put, he's an All-Star, rookie or not. If he ends up representing the Mariners at the actual MLB All-Star Game, there are a number of pitchers that could fill his slot here, including Beachy, Alexi Ogando, Zach Britton or Jeremy Hellickson.

Reliever: Craig Kimbrel, Braves

With a dominant 14.3 K/9, 3.6 K/BB rate and only one home run allowed in a rookie reliever-leading 41 innings pitched, Kimbrel has become one of the most electric closers in baseball. Oh yeah, he also has 23 saves, which leads all rookie relievers and puts him one save behind Brian Wilson for the most in baseball.

Of course, all-star selections wouldn't be as fun if it weren't for the debate part of the process. Who would you put on the imaginary 2011 all-rookie all-star team? Who would they play against in an actual game -- the winner of the Futures Game, perhaps?

Charlie Saponara writes for Red Sox SweetSpot network blog, "Fire Brand of the AL." You can find all of his writing adventures by following on Twitter.