SweetSpot: Martin Perez

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Heading into the final few games of the season, I heard an interview with Joe Maddon where he was asked what it will take for the Rays to get through these next few games and into the postseason.

Part of his response: "You need your best players to perform." (Or something of that ilk.)

The two best players in this tiebreaker game were David Price and Evan Longoria, especially with Yu Darvish having pitched Sunday for the Rangers and Adrian Beltre playing on a sore hamstring. We spend a lot of time these days breaking down everything that goes into a baseball game, and that's fun and informative and interesting, and dissecting all the numbers and strategies and potential strategies are part of what makes baseball so appealing to many of us.

[+] EnlargeEvan Longoria
AP Photo/Tim SharpWas Evan Longoria's big night in Game No. 163 a preview of his postseason potential?
But sometimes the analysis is simple. Sometimes you just need your best players to perform. Price was outstanding, Longoria homered with one of his three hits, and the Rays beat the Rangers 5-2 to keep their season alive.

For Price, he exorcised some personal demons of sorts. He had defeated the Rangers just once in 11 career starts, including three postseason starts. His career ERA in Texas was over 10.00 in four games. He wasn't necessarily dominant, striking out just four in throwing a complete game. He had pretty good command of his fastball, however, and basically challenged the Rangers to hit it. He threw fastballs on 73 of his 118 pitches, and while the Rangers swung and missed at just one fastball all game, they didn't do any severe damage against it, or at least not enough damage. (Price actually induced just four swing-and-misses the entire game.)

The Rangers didn't exactly throw out a strong lineup. With Jeff Baker sidelined with a sports hernia, Ron Washington's starting nine included three lefties -- Price held left-handed batters to a .195 average with just two home runs -- and two of those, Leonys Martin and Mitch Moreland, are pretty weak against lefties. Nelson Cruz hadn't played in two months due to his suspension, Beltre hurt his hamstring on Sunday and Elvis Andrus had just 25 extra-base hits on the season. It was a game where the Rangers shouldn't have expected to score many runs.

It didn't help that Andrus got picked off in the first inning and Ian Kinsler got picked off in the third. Washington had apparently stressed to his club to play aggressive, but in the end those were two costly mistakes.

Once the Rays took a 4-2 lead, the key at-bat against Price came in the eighth after Kinsler doubled down the third-base line with one out. Price was over 100 pitches, and you could have expected to see Joel Peralta in the game to face the right-handed threesome of Andrus, Alex Rios and Beltre. Peralta was warming up, but he can be a little home run-prone (seven home runs) and Maddon might have been thinking of the four outings in September where Peralta allowed two or more runs.

Sometimes you just go with your best.

Andrus laid down a near-perfect bunt down the first-base line on an 0-1 pitch, but Price made a terrific play (especially for a lefty), flipping the ball with his glove to first to get Andrus. Rios grounded out to shortstop to end the threat. What if Andrus had hit away? We'll never know, which is the beauty of "what if" in baseball. With a little more cushion after Sam Fuld created a run in the top of the ninth, Maddon let Price begin the bottom of the ninth. Why not? One-two-three, game over.

As for Longoria, he lined a single to right-center in the first inning off rookie lefty Martin Perez to send Wil Myers to third; Myers would score on Delmon Young's sac fly. In the third, Perez faced Longoria with two outs and a runner on first. Longoria took an inside 94 mph fastball and drilled it into the wind tunnel in right-center, just clearing the fence for a two-run homer.

[+] EnlargeJoe Maddon
Ronald Martinez/Getty ImagesThe umpires cost the Rays a run when they incorrectly ruled Leonys Martin had caught Delmon Young's line drive.
I can't really fault Washington too much in this game. His bullpen had been worked hard in the final few days (although he inexplicably used closer Joe Nathan for a fourth straight game on Sunday to close out a 6-2 lead), and while you could argue for a Matt Garza or Alexi Ogando earlier in the game, Garza hasn't been good and Ogando started on Friday.

Perez settled down after the Longoria home run, and Washington correctly yanked him with one out in the sixth when Longoria came up again. Ogando just didn't have much in this game. Longoria doubled off him, and with two outs, pinch hitter David DeJesus doubled him home (you could argue that Neal Cotts should have been brought in there).

In the end, the Rays are the better team. The AL East was easily the best division in the majors this year and the Rangers made it this far in large part due to their 17-2 record against the lowly Astros, an opponent the Rays didn't get to face 19 times.

Now the Rays get the Indians, and while the game will be in Cleveland, the Rays have to like their chances with the underrated Alex Cobb, who went 11-3 with a 2.76 ERA in 22 starts, on the mound. Cobb throws an excellent changeup that dives away from left-handed hitters -- they hit .214/.245/.325 off it -- but he changed the grip on his curveball last summer and it's given him a second out pitch alongside the changeup. Cobb learned the grip from former teammate James Shields and batters have hit .260 off it, but with just one home run in 100 at-bats.

The Rays will face another rookie in hard-throwing Danny Salazar, who has made 10 career starts, but averages 96 mph on his fastball and has reached 100. The Indians have held him to tight pitch counts, going more than 89 pitches just once and held under 80 in five of his starts, so Terry Francona will likely tell Salazar to cut it loose for as long as he can go and turn it into a bullpen game early on.

Thanks to Price, Maddon will also enter with a rested bullpen, so there should be plenty of pitching changes and possible pinch-hitting moves to discuss and argue about.

Of course, it could be that it will come down to the best player. The Indians are good and they're hot, having won 10 in a row, but Longoria will once again be the best player in this game.

FYI: He's hit 22 of his 32 home runs off fastballs.


There were some moments there when it appeared the Tampa Bay Rays would complete a mini collapse of sorts, especially when manager Joe Maddon lost his cool as the Rays were starting to melt down in the seventh inning and he had an Earl Weaver moment, getting ejected after arguing with plate umpire Paul Schreiber following a trip to the mound.

The Rays had entered the weekend in control of their own wild-card destiny, but while the Indians and Rangers were beating the Twins and Angels, Tampa had lost twice to Toronto. A six-run first inning made it appear it would be an easy win on Sunday, but the Rays saw a 7-0 lead slide to 7-3 in the sixth, then 7-4 in the seventh and then 7-6 in the eighth as closer Fernando Rodney gave up two run-scoring singles and then a walk that loaded the bases. But he struck out Moses Sierra with two outs and got through the ninth and now the Rays will play the Rangers in the tiebreaker game on Monday night to move on to the wild-card game.

On paper, the pitching matchup goes to the Rays, with David Price starting against Martin Perez. The Rays set up their rotation back in early September to line up Price to start the wild-card game or, if necessary, this game. The Rangers had to scramble at the end and, needing a win on Sunday, started ace Yu Darvish, so the start here falls to the young left-hander.

Before we get to Price's checkered big-game history -- especially against the Rangers -- I'm left with two thoughts on this year's wild-card race.

First, the Rays are arguably better than the Indians or Rangers. By that, I mean the AL East was clearly a tougher division than the Central or the West. AL East teams went 242-188 outside the division, the Central went 210-220 and the West went 197-233. If the Rays had played 19 games against the Astros and Mariners instead of the Orioles and Blue Jays, they would have likely won a few more games.

But them's the breaks, I guess, and strength of schedule matters only for NCAA tournament seedings. Plus, the Rangers are hosting the game because they did win the season series, 4-3.

The second issue is the decision the Rays made to start Wil Myers in the minor leagues and not recall him until June 18. While the Rays can claim they wanted Myers to work on cutting down his strikeouts, we also know this move is something the Rays have done in the past to save money. By delaying Myers' call-up date, they saved not only a season on his free agency but also postponed his initial eligibility for arbitration by a year. That will save them millions down the road, but maybe it will end up costing them a playoff berth this year.

From Opening Day until June 17, Rays right fielders hit .246/.327/.427, not awful but below Myers' .295/.353/.482 line. Matt Joyce and Ben Zobrist played a lot out there early on, so in essence the Rays were playing guys like Ryan Roberts and Sam Fuld early on instead of Myers. I think it's fair to suggest the Rays would have at least one more win if Myers had been called up six weeks earlier.

[+] EnlargeDavid Price
AP Photo/Michael DwyerDavid Price doesn't want to have to face further questions about his problems with the Rangers.
OK, so what about Monday's game? While Price is understandably the guy Maddon wants to give the ball to, it's also true that the Rangers sort of have the whammy on him. Price is 1-4 with a 5.98 ERA in eight regular-season starts against Texas and is 0-3 with a 4.66 ERA in three postseason starts. Those are the only three playoff starts of Price's career, and remember also that on that memorable final day of 2011 he started and dug a big hole for the Rays when he allowed six runs in four innings to the Yankees. So he has a checkered past in big games.

After missing all of June with a triceps injury, Price returned and had the best stretch of his career, eight starts where he went 5-1 with a 1.40 ERA, a 44-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio and had three complete games where he threw fewer than 100 pitches. He's allowed two runs in each of his past four starts, but hasn't had quite the same efficiency. What he's done, however, is keep the ball in the park as he's given up just two home runs in his past 11 starts.

In a move to perhaps counteract Price's dominance against left-handers, the Rangers announced Nelson Cruz will be activated for Monday's game. They didn't say whether he would be in the starting lineup, but you have to think Ron Washington may take that chance even though Cruz hasn't played a major league game since Aug. 4.

The past week or so, Washington has gone with Craig Gentry in left, Leonys Martin in center and Alex Rios in right, with David Murphy, Jeff Baker and others rotating through the DH slot. Martin hasn't hit lefties (.231/.286/.300), but an outfield of Gentry/Martin/Rios is the best defensive alignment the Rangers can throw out there. Baker will be in the lineup somewhere, considering he's slugged .667 against left-handers (10 home runs in 105 at-bats). An infielder by trade, Baker has started 15 games at first base. If I'm Washington, I keep the outfield intact, play Baker at first, bench Mitch Moreland and use Cruz as the designated hitter.

(Update: Baker has a hernia and has been ruled out from playing in the field the past few weeks. Plus he hasn't homered since August, so we'll likely see Moreland at first but maybe still see Cruz at DH.)

Perez doesn't have Price's résumé, but he has a 3.05 ERA over his past 11 starts. The peripherals aren't quite as good, with just 51 strikeouts in 73 2/3 innings. However, Perez has a great changeup that has actually made him more effective against right-handed batters. Maddon is pretty limited in his lefty-bashing options at the plate. You may see David DeJesus, who has delivered some big hits down the stretch, but you're unlikely to see Matt Joyce, who hit .167 against lefties.

Washington, of course, has a deep bullpen so he'll have the luxury of a quick hook and the ability to mix and match with righties and lefties. Remember, expanded rosters are in play since this is simply Game No. 163 of the regular season. While Perez has been solid of late, I don't think Washington should play around unless Perez is absolutely dealing; a quick hook should be in order. On the other hand, in sweeping the Angels, Washington did use Tanner Scheppers and Joe Nathan all four games and Neal Cotts in three. Not that Scheppers or Nathan will be unavailable, but it probably means Washington is even more unlikely to be a little creative and maybe stretch those two for four or five outs instead of three.

Given where the Rays were a week ago, I feel like more pressure is actually on them. The Rangers won their last seven just to get here and have to feel good just to have one more game. If the Rays lose, they'd become the first team since the 2002-03 Mariners to miss the playoffs two straight years while winning 90-plus games, so they face the frustration of another excellent season that falls just short of the postseason.

I don't see Price going the distance, so it becomes a battle of the bullpens in the late innings. Advantage, Rangers. I'll say Texas 4, Tampa Bay 3, with Fernando Rodney taking the loss in the bottom of the ninth.

Matt Garza cures part of what ails Rangers

July, 24, 2013
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If not for an untimely three-base throwing error on a ground ball back up the middle, Matt Garza might have held the Yankees scoreless all night in his Rangers debut. Overall, Garza went 7⅓ innings, allowed five hits, walked none and struck out five on 95 pitches.

Garza made a great first impression as part of a new and improved Rangers rotation. Beginning in spring training, Rangers starters have been ravaged by injuries or lackluster performance all season long. They are one of eight teams with one or zero starters to have made 20 or more starts at this point in the season.

The litany of injuries started early. Martin Perez, one of several candidates for the fifth slot in the rotation in spring training, had his left forearm broken by a line drive hit back up the middle in March. Colby Lewis and Neftali Feliz both had to undergo elbow surgery last year and have yet to return to action this season. Matt Harrison had to deal with an inflamed nerve in his back, and he might not return until late August.

The Rangers opened the season with rookie Nick Tepesch in the rotation, soon followed by Justin Grimm. Neither made matters better for the Rangers: Prior to his inclusion in the Garza trade with the Cubs, Grimm posted a 6.37 ERA in 17 starts with the Rangers, while Tepesch was at 4.85 in 16 starts before landing on the DL with inflammation in his right elbow after his start on July 6.
[+] EnlargeMatt Garza
Layne Murdoch/Getty ImagesIf not for one misplay, Matt Garza might have finished his Rangers debut unscored upon.

Through it all, Derek Holland and Yu Darvish have been the backbone of the Rangers pitching staff. Holland has a 3.10 ERA and Darvish has a 2.86 ERA and a league-leading 161 strikeouts. Sabermetrically, both rank in the top 10 among AL starters by Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP), a stat that estimates ERA based on strikeouts, walks, and fly balls. Darvish has a 2.82 xFIP, second best in the league, while Holland ranks 10th at 3.48. If the playoffs were comprised of best-of-three series, the Rangers would be good to go. They just had no one to rely on beyond those two.

Enter Garza. He had been fantastic all season with the Cubs, posting a 3.17 ERA over 11 starts since making his season debut on May 21 after recovering from a right lat strain. The Rangers entered tonight 10 games over .500 and only three games behind the Oakland Athletics. Replacing whatever amalgamation of starters the Rangers would have ended up using in the No. 5 spot -- while pushing everyone else down a spot -- Garza is a tremendous boon with a little more than two months remaining.

This is not to say that Garza is the panacea for all that ails the Rangers. They still have issues in the outfield, as the combination of David Murphy in left and Leonys Martin and Craig Gentry in center haven’t added up to big numbers on offense. The Rangers are also worried that right fielder Nelson Cruz might be suspended like Ryan Braun for his involvement in the Biogenesis issue. According to reports, the Rangers have expressed some interest in right fielders Alex Rios of the White Sox and Hunter Pence of the Giants.

Garza was one half of the equation for fixing the Rangers in season. With the addition of an outfielder before the deadline, the Rangers will have everything they need to compete for the AL West title and go to battle in the postseason. A top four of Harrison, Darvish, Garza and Holland is as formidable as any in baseball. The Rangers' bullpen has been unhittable for four months.

As for Garza himself, he simply has to continue doing what he has done throughout his career, which is rely on fastballs and sliders to induce ground balls and limit home runs. Since 2007, his ERA has had a remarkably thin range between 2.87 (2013) and 3.95 (2009). That is the type of consistency the Rangers will need as they prepare for what they hope is a second-half surge that pushes them into postseason action.
The Texas Rangers failed in their attempt to bring back Josh Hamilton or to sign Zack Greinke. OK, maybe failed is the wrong word. Maybe the Rangers just drew a line on what they were willing to pay and wouldn't cross it.

But Kyle Lohse is still out there and the Rangers theoretically have a rotation slot open behind Yu Darvish, Matt Harrison, Derek Holland and Alexi Ogando. I say theoretically, because the Rangers still have Colby Lewis, who is expected to return in the second half after elbow surgery. They also have Robbie Ross, who pitched out of the bullpen as a rookie in 2012. They have highly touted prospect Martin Perez, or at least the one-time highly touted Martin Perez.

So they have options. Their estimated payroll right now is $121 million, a little less than last year's $124 million. The Rangers' mega-TV deal with Fox Sports Southwest doesn't kick until 2015, a deal that will increase the Rangers' local TV revenue from about $20 million per year to $80 million. So -- theoretically -- the Rangers' payroll can increase in the future. Just maybe not this season.

That doesn't mean it can't. Accountants have a way of making the money work. Is Lohse worth whatever price tag it will take? Aside from the money, the first question: How much better would he be than Perez or Ross? (We'll leave Lewis out of the equation for now.) Certainly, Lohse has developed into a solid starter the past two seasons after years of mediocrity, thanks to impeccable command -- just 38 walks in 33 starts in 2012. He went 16-3 with a 2.86 ERA and career-high 211 innings, all numbers that scream career season, but you never know, maybe at 34 he's hitting a little peak of effectiveness here. His strikeout percentage was also a career-best 16.6 percent, his walk percentage a career low and he's now posted back-to-back seasons with a .269 BABIP and .262 BABIP.

Still, we wouldn't project him to do that again, and certainly not in Texas, which is a much higher run-scoring environment than St. Louis. Plus you would be adding in the DH. On the other hand, he'd still get to face the Astros.

Last year, Lohse allowed 74 runs in 211 innings, or 3.2 per nine innings. I think we can conservatively add 15 runs to that total, or 3.8 per nine. Personally, I think that's a pretty low estimate. In 2011, he allowed 80 runs in 188 innings. Anyway, let's be optimistic about Lohse's future and give him those 211 innings again and project 89 runs allowed.

Perez first became a big prospect after a big 2009 season, most of it spent in Class A. He was young and polished and expected to make a quick rise from there to the majors. But he got hammered in Double-A in 2010, was a little better in 2011 and then posted a 4.25 ERA in Triple-A in 2012, but with a poor 69/52 SO/BB ratio in 127 innings. He also pitched 38 innings for the Rangers, making six starts and six relief appearances, and was ineffective with a 5.45 ERA. I'm not optimistic about his chances of becoming a good starter, but he doesn't turn 22 until April.

Ross had a fine season as a rookie in the Texas bullpen, going 6-0 with a 2.22 ERA. His peripherals aren't quite that good -- more like a pitcher with an ERA in the mid-3s -- but he showcased a good low-90s fastball/slider combo. He had very little time in the minors above Class A and would need to add a third pitch as a starter, so as with Perez, he's a question mark as a starter.

Let's say these two were given a shot to start and weren't that impressive -- allowing, say, 5.5 runs per nine innings. That's pretty bad, as bad as Perez in his short stint last year. Of course, they wouldn't throw 200 innings; more like 160. That's 98 runs allowed. We had Lohse at 89 runs in 211 innings. That means the bullpen has to throw an extra 50 innings; at four runs per nine (the Texas bullpen had a 3.99 ERA last year), that's about 22 additional runs. So the difference between Perez/Ross and Lohse would be about 31 runs -- which is worth about three wins -- plus the extra workload the bullpen would have to carry. Maybe that's an extra win that shows up in other ways.

I don't have to point out the meaning of four wins in the AL West; the Rangers know all too well the potential value of one win.

Now ... the numbers above are more like a best-case/worst-case scenario. Odds are the Rangers' fifth starters could do better, and Lohse could do worse. Maybe the spread is more like one win or two wins. In signing Lohse, the Rangers would also lose their first-round draft pick and the bonus money allotted to that pick in their draft budget. Not to mention the $15 million per year or whatever it will cost to sign him.

It wouldn't be an easy decision for general manager Jon Daniels. On the other hand, the Rangers are in win-now mode. Nelson Cruz is already declining, Ian Kinsler and Adrian Beltre aren't going to get better, and you should ride Darvish and Harrison while they're healthy. The window is now.

What do you do?

Power rankings: All 30 teams!

December, 22, 2012
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Last weekend, I presented the top 10 teams in my personal power rankings. That was before the Blue Jays officially acquired R.A. Dickey, so I updated my top 10 after that trade, and, to spur on more debate, now present the rest of my rankings. Agree or disagree, but I do think this is the most parity we've seen in a long time. It's why the Orioles and A's were able to surprise this past season and why we will undoubtedly see another surprise team in 2013. It's a great time to be a baseball fan.

1. Nationals
Most talented rotation in the majors, deep lineup, depth. Re-signing Adam LaRoche to add another lefty power bat will help.

2. Reds
Superb rotation could be better if the Aroldis Chapman transition works, bullpen is deep enough to absorb his loss and Shin-Soo Choo provides a needed leadoff hitter.

3. Yankees
I think they can stretch things out more season with a deep rotation, excellent bullpen and power. Remember, they had the largest run differential in the American League last season.

4. Tigers
Deep rotation, great 1-2 punch with Miggy and Prince, and Torii Hunter and Victor Martinez should improve the lineup.

5. Braves
Left-handed power, power bullpen and a young team that could improve from last year's 94 wins.

6. Blue Jays
Addition of Dickey adds a needed No. 1 to a rotation that could be dominant if Josh Johnson and Brandon Morrow remain healthy.

7. A's
Young teams that show big improvement are usually for real, and this team has a solid rotation, a strong outfield and power arms in the bullpen.

8. Dodgers
Have to love the Clayton Kershaw-Zack Greinke combo and an offense with big upside if Matt Kemp and Adrian Gonzalez come close to 2011 levels.

9. Rangers
I think the rotation is playoff-caliber with Yu Darvish, Matt Harrison, Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando, Martin Perez and Colby Lewis.

SportsNation

Which of these five teams should be No. 1 right now?

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Discuss (Total votes: 35,031)

10. Cardinals
Have to replace Kyle Lohse, but they'll score plenty of runs as long as Carlos Beltran (36 years old in April) and Matt Holliday (33 in January) keep producing.

11. Rays
Still some holes in the lineup, and replacing James Shields' 220-plus innings won't be that easy, but underestimate the Rays at your own risk.

12. Angels
Oddsmaker Bovada.lv has the Angels with the second-best odds to win the World Series (behind the Blue Jays), but I see a rotation with a lot of question marks behind Jered Weaver, and Josh Hamilton only replaces Hunter, who was terrific in 2012.

13. Giants
I discussed my issues with the Giants here. I could be wrong, although our friends at Bovada only put the Giants tied for ninth in their World Series odds.

14. Diamondbacks
Their run differential wasn't much different than the Giants last year, and they've added Brandon McCarthy, infield depth and still have Justin Upton.

15. Phillies
I want to say we're all underestimating a team that includes Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, but then I see an outfield of Darin Ruf, Ben Revere and Domonic Brown, and an infield defense that includes Michael Young and Ryan Howard and 30-somethings Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley.

16. Brewers
They can score runs -- most in the National League last season -- and if the bullpen regroups after 2012's gruesome late-inning efforts, this team could surprise.

17. Red Sox
There will be no expectations after the disaster in 2012 (the franchise's worst record since 1965), but I see a big rebound coming.

18. Royals
I'll buy -- but I'm not buying a playoff spot. Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas have to take huge leaps forward ... or the Royals could be headed for another rebuild.

19. Orioles
Last season's 93-win playoff team provided a beautiful ride, but the Orioles haven't added that big bat they need.

20. Padres
Young team is moving in the right direction after winning 76 games in 2012. Can rotation improve to push Pads over .500?

21. Mariners
Mariners have pursued a big bat all offseason but were only able to pick up Kendrys Morales, and he cost them Jason Vargas, opening up a 200-inning hole in the rotation. Looks like 2014 before Mariners can make a push in the tough AL West.

22. Pirates
Still no No. 1 or even No. 2 starter (sorry, A.J. Burnett is a No. 3 at best) and not enough support for Andrew McCutchen. One of these years, Pirates fans, one of these years.

23. White Sox
No A.J. Pierzynski, a declining Paul Konerko, good year/off year Alex Rios due for an off year. Then again, White Sox had a bigger run differential in 2012 than the Tigers.

24. Cubs
Rotation of Edwin Jackson, Jeff Samardzija, Travis Wood, Scott Baker and Scott Feldman could be competitive, but offense won't be.

25. Mets
At least Mets fans can dream of a future rotation that includes Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Jonathon Niese and Noah Syndergaard. Unfortunately, the 2013 version still includes Frank Francisco and a bunch of fourth outfielders.

26. Marlins
Giancarlo Stanton still makes this team worth watching on a daily basis.

27. Indians
Getting Trevor Bauer in the Choo deal added a much-needed starting pitcher prospect. Unfortunately, much of the rest of rotation remains suspect.

28. Twins
Kevin Correia, Vance Worley, Mike Pelfrey ... what, Rich Robertson and Sean Bergman weren't available?

29. Rockies
At least the Twins have a direction as they wait for young position players to reach the majors. I have no clue what the Rockies are doing, intend to do, want to do, wish to do or hope to achieve.

30. Astros
Welcome to the AL West, boys.
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