SweetSpot: Mat Gamel

What a day in baseball on Wednesday! Eric Karabell and myself could have done a two-hour Baseball Today podcast. Here are some highlights of a jam-packed show. Eric even tricked me into comparing Jose Altuve to Al Kaline and Alex Rodriguez. OK, maybe I did that to myself.

1. We discuss Jered Weaver's no-hitter, of course, and wonder how many more no-hitters we'll see this season.

2. We discuss that wild, improbable game in Atlanta between the Phillies and Braves. Are there reasons to be concerned about Roy Halladay?

3. That's only the tip of the iceberg of a crazy night -- bad calls, Jason Giambi's walk-off homer, Jake Arrieta dominating the Yankees and more.

4. We answer some emails about Mat Gamel's injury and other stuff.

5. Finally, we look ahead to Thursday's action and I declare that Jose Altuve is a batting title contender.

Check it all out on Thursday's Baseball Today podcast, and don't miss Friday's show with Mark Simon and awesome guests Jayson Stark and Tampa Bay Rays pitching coach Jim Hickey.
The final March edition of the Baseball Today podcast was a winner as Mark Simon and I waxed poetic with our National League preview, a few ridiculous questions and other fun!

1. We’ve got different teams representing the NL in this season’s World Series, and neither is a stranger to October baseball. But what’s the theme of the NL? Is parity a good thing?

2. Is acquiring Bobby Abreu a good thing? While I can’t possibly understand Cleveland’s possible interest in the one-time OBP machine, Mark takes a different angle.

3. All baseball fans should know the unbridled joy when their favorite team signs Juan Pierre. #Sarcasm. Hey, I mock because I care.

4. Mark and I discuss our recent defensive runs saved draft, which was a blast and we’ll follow throughout the season. No, really, we did it and SweetSpot blogger Dave Schoenfield wishes he had!

5. Among the topics in email was how the Rays will treat James Shields and B.J. Upton, John Olerud’s batting helmet and what happens to a pitcher after he allows a home run on the first pitch of the game! We have answers!

So download and listen to a packed Friday episode of the Baseball Today podcast, and return with us on Monday as we get you ready for a huge week of relevant baseball!

Brewers might import former 'next Ichiro'

December, 19, 2011
12/19/11
8:40
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The Brewers already have all sorts of trouble to sort through. Prince Fielder left town to entertain offers involving oodles of cash, and Ryan Braun is looking at a 50-game suspension for allegedly possessing more testosterone than even Dos Equis’ Most Interesting Man in the World. Aramis Ramirez provides at least one new answer for their need for power. But there’s more work to be done if the Brewers are going to have any shot at defending their NL Central title.

To their credit, they’re being a bit creative. Having Alex Gonzalez at shortstop might compensate for A-Ram’s disappearing range on the left side of the infield. Having first base open creates the opportunity Mat Gamel spent the last four years at either Huntsville or Nashville waiting for.

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Norichika Aoki
Robert Benson/US PresswireWill Norichika Aoki make this kind of contact for the Brewers?
But to stretch their limited dollars just a wee bit further, the Brewers expanded their personal pool of free agents by paying the posting fee to negotiate with outfielder Norichika Aoki of the Yakult Swallows. Aoki, now coming up on his 30th birthday, was gushingly compared to Ichiro Suzuki back in the day. He bats lefty, runs well, played center and seemed like a leadoff terror every team would be falling all over to get back in 2007.

But that was five years ago, when he was a career .330/.390/.425 hitter. From 2007-2010 Aoki would bounce around a .350 batting average, .430 OBP while slugging .500. In 2007 he scored 114 runs while drawing 80 walks; in 2008, he stole 31 bases in 40 attempts. (Praise be to the always indispensable Baseball-Reference.com for releasing their new tranche of Japanese leagues data today.)

Then came 2011, when Japan adopted a baseball more like the American ball, which radically changed the Japanese leagues. Per a thought-provoking post from earlier today from Tim Ednoff of Baseball American, both circuits saw their runs scored per game drop by more than a full run in 2011 -- the Central League’s ERA dropped from 4.13 to 3.06, and the Pacific League’s -- which uses the DH -- went from 3.94 to 2.94. Good-bye Randy Bass, and hello Deadball Era.

Where this matters is when it comes to interpreting the performance not just of the highest high-profile guys like Yu Darvish, but also a hitter like Aoki. Last year, the second coming of Ichiro saw his performance drop to .292/.358/.360 while stealing just eight bases in 11 attempts. He’s also years past his days as an everyday center fielder. I asked Dan Szymborski of ESPN Insider Insider if he’d forecasted Aoki yet, and he had -- to to hit .289/.338/.393 in Milwaukee. (Note: Not a neutral park, as stated earlier.) Miller Park isn’t a launching pad, so that’ll do for a place-holding expectation for what Aoki might be able to do in Milwaukee. Good-bye Ichiro, hello Tony Plush.

Which is perhaps exactly why he’s the sort of guy the Brewers can afford. A posting fee of $2.5 million isn’t much to start out with, and Aoki’s 2011 plummet at the plate conveniently gives the Brewers a better sense of what he might do. And assuming that Braun is missing from left field for the first 50 games, there’s already a spot open in the Brewers’ lineup.

Aoki would presumably be a Ron Roenicke kind of player, presumably running and bunting on command, and complementing the other small-ball gambits that the Brewers’ skipper likes to employ now and again.

What about after those first 50 games, when Braun comes back in late May or early June? That’s certainly going to be interesting. If Gamel is holding down the job, the Brewers have a nice problem on their hands. But if Gamel isn’t earning his keep at the plate at that point, it’s worth remembering that Corey Hart has played 179 games in the minors at first base, and he rarely charms observers with his ungainly brand of right-field defense.

Whether or not the Brewers wind up actually signing Aoki is another thing altogether, so let’s not put too many horses before this particular cart. As the Oakland A’s found out in their negotiations with Rakuten Eagles ace Hisashi Iwakuma last year, there’s no guarantee that a player will take just any offer from the only team he’s allowed to negotiate with. And since the posting fee is refundable, if the Brewers decide that Aoki won’t sign for their best offer, they can always just wish him well and leave him on the other side of the Pacific.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.


Ramirez puts Brewers in good shape

December, 12, 2011
12/12/11
2:51
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According to sources, Aramis Ramirez is headed to the Milwaukee Brewers. He definitely will help: In 2011, their third basemen (primarily Casey McGehee) hit .215/.274/.324, producing the second-lowest OPS in the majors.

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Ramirez
AP Photo/Charles CherneyAramis Ramirez is a big upgrade offensively for the Brewers at third base.
Meanwhile, Ramirez was probably the second- or third-best-hitting third baseman in the majors in 2011. Only Pablo Sandoval had a higher OPS among third basemen with at least 400 plate appearances. Putting aside Ramirez's long-term value, let's assess where the Brewers stand.

Here's what we know:

1. Ramirez in at third base, McGehee out.
2. Alex Gonzalez in at shortstop, Yuniesky Betancourt out.
3. Prince Fielder likely out at first base, Mat Gamel likely in.
4. Ryan Braun likely out for 50 games at left field (no positive test has ever been overturned), replacement-level player to be named.

Baseball is about scoring runs and preventing runs. Let's put all this into the mixer and see what it might mean in terms of run differential for the Brewers.

Third base

It's difficult to put into words how awful McGehee was in 2011, and in retrospect, it's amazing that Ron Roenicke kept starting him until essentially the final week of the season and playoffs, when he finally inserted Jerry Hairston. Anyway, using figures from FanGraphs.com, Ramirez created about 99 park-adjusted runs in 626 plate appearances in 2011; McGehee created about 46 runs in 600 plate appearances (or 48 over 626 plate appearances). McGehee is no Gold Glover, but Ramirez plays third base about as well as a tree stump these days. Baseball Info Solutions had McGehee at minus-2 runs in defensive runs saved and Ramirez at minus-12.

Offensive difference: +51 runs
Defensive difference: -10 runs

Shortstop

Offensively, Betancourt and Gonzalez are pretty much mirror images of each other: low-OBP hackers with a little pop for shortstops. In nearly the same total of plate appearances, Betancourt created about 48 runs, Gonzalez about 50. The big difference comes on defense, where Betancourt (having a good season for him) scored at minus-6 but Gonzalez at plus-15.

Offensive difference: +2 runs
Defensive difference: +21 runs

First base

Fielder hit .299/.415/.566, creating about 128 runs over his 692 plate appearances. The Bill James projections listed at FanGraphs have Gamel hitting .282/.342/.476 and creating 70 runs over 483 plate appearances. If we prorate that to 692 PAs, we get 100 runs created for Gamel. Defensively, Fielder actually rated well in 2011 at minus-1. Gamel is not regarded as a good defender. Let's call that one a wash.

Offensive difference: -28 runs
Defensive difference: 0 runs

Left field

Braun created 129 runs in 150 games in 2011, so he'd lose a third of that production, or 43 runs over the 50 games he would miss. Let's say a replacement-level left fielder would create about 75 runs over a season, or 25 runs over 50 games. BIS had Braun at minus-3 runs on defense, so let's call that a wash for now as well.

Offensive difference: -18 runs
Defensive difference: 0 runs

Add it all up, and even with the loss of Fielder and the potential loss of Braun for 50 games, we get the Brewers at plus-18 runs better than last season.

Now, there are plenty of caveats here: Ramirez might not hit quite as well as in 2011; Gonzalez might not field quite as well as in 2011; Gamel might not meet his projections. Even if Gamel does that, he's unlikely to play every game like Fielder did, and the Brewers might not get adequate production from their backups. Still, even if you downgrade the run differential for all those reasons, these moves essentially leave the Brewers spinning their wheels.

Yes, losing Fielder hurts. And it's entirely possible Gamel will struggle and not hit. But replacing McGehee's bat and Betancourt's glove are such positives that the Brewers appear to be able to absorb the loss of the big guy.

For more on the Brewers, Ramirez and Braun, check out Brewers blog Disciples of Uecker.

NL Central: Three fixes for each team

November, 30, 2011
11/30/11
1:29
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Now in its last-ever season as Bud Selig’s six-team division, the NL Central gave us the league’s pennant contenders, and figures to give us one of the most interesting offseasons of any division in baseball. Not least because the challenges confronting the Brewers and Cardinals are so very similar.

Milwaukee Brewers

1. First base: Open. (Prince Fielder, free agent)

Losing a batter of Fielder's quality and stature really shouldn't be the way the Brewers send off their 2011 season, but it remains to be seen whether they can afford to go dollar for dollar with the other teams that want him. If they fail to bring him back, they'll be hoping that the sporadically touted Mat Gamel finally breaks through. Gamel has spent most of the past three years at Triple-A Nashville, hitting .301/.374/.512 as a lefty power source -- or what figures to be a drop at the big league level from Fielder.

Likely solution: It's fairly straightforward. If they lose Fielder, they'll probably bank on Gamel, because he's a better choice than hauling in one of the second-tier free agents.

2. Shortstop: Open. (Yuniesky Betancourt, free agent)

The Brewers' situation is much like the Cardinals' in that if they don't keep their All-Star slugger at first, their highest priority won't be signing another first baseman, it'll be getting a shortstop. They've flirted with the best budget option, Rafael Furcal, but there's also been talk that they'd settle for bringing back Betancourt.

Likely solution: After Fielder signs elsewhere, it won't be surprising if getting a deal with Furcal done happens in short order. If they somehow manage to re-sign Fielder, bringing back Betancourt for much less than Furcal would cost becomes fairly likely.

3. Bullpen depth.

With Francisco Rodriguez and LaTroy Hawkins both on the move as free agents, finding adequate set-up help for closer John Axford becomes a significant item on GM Doug Melvin's shopping list. While you can hope that power lefty Zach Braddock will be back in the mix, after last season's problems they might also be interested in adding a veteran lefty.

Likely solution: They'll sign at least two veterans, but it won't be for huge money or longer for two years or year-plus-option deals.

St. Louis Cardinals

1. First base: Open. (Albert Pujols, free agent)

The blowback if the Cards fail to sign Pujols will be significant but survivable -- they did just win a World Series, after all. And if Pujols does leave, they're set to replace him on the field with Lance Berkman and in the lineup with Allen Craig (taking Berkman's place in right). If they keep Pujols, they'd certainly have a bargaining chip in Craig, which they might use to address their other issues, but it's likely they'd nevertheless keep him.

Likely solution: If they don't sign Pujols, they won't sign a first baseman.

2. Shortstop: Open. (Rafael Furcal, free agent)

Just like their division rivals in Milwaukee, the Cards' top priority if they don't land their superstar is to find a shortstop. While you might expect that a team throwing around the kind of money it will cost to keep Pujols could easily re-employ it to sign Jose Reyes, that doesn't seem likely, as the Cards really only seem committed to opening the wallet to keep their homegrown franchise player.

Likely solution: They beat the Brewers' bid for Furcal if they want to, or make Jimmy Rollins a happy man if they decide to make a longer-term commitment.

3. Second base: Skip Schumaker, Ryan Theriot, Daniel Descalso

The Schumaker-Theriot platoon down the stretch was nice, but Schumaker still plays second base like a converted outfielder, while Theriot's last year before free agency might be an arbitration-inflated expense that GM John Mozeliak decides he'd rather not afford. Add in Descalso's line-drive pop and plus defense at the hot corner, and you've got a number of useful alternatives.

Likely solution: It depends how comfortable new manager Mike Matheny is with the fluid roster situations that Tony La Russa exploited with relish. Theriot can serve as the backup shortstop, Schumaker the chief reserve in center, while Descalso can be David Freese's defensive replacement and spotter at third. If Matheny's adaptive enough to exploit all of that, second base isn't a problem.

Cincinnati Reds

1. Sorting out the rotation.

After not really resolving the situation over 2011, the Reds are still confronted with tough choices from among six plausible alternatives for four rotation slots. (Thanks to still owing Bronson Arroyo $28.5 million, they're stuck with him in the other slot for two more years.) However, GM Walt Jocketty's choice seems to involve a lot of “none of the above,” given rumors that his offseason interests are focused on even more young starters, with Jair Jurrjens of the Braves or John Danks or Gavin Floyd of the White Sox getting mentioned.

Probable solution: Assuming that where there's smoke there's fire, expect the Reds to deal from offensive depth to land a starting pitcher, with some of the overflow splashing over into the bullpen.

2. Closer: Open (Francisco Cordero, free agent)

With the market already overstocked with closers, Jocketty sensibly ditched Cordero's $12 million option for 2012 to explore his alternatives. Then the early-acting Phillies prompted a small run on that market segment with their signing of Jonathan Papelbon, and with Joe Nathan and Jonathan Broxton already signed, the best fit for the Reds' homer-happy park might be ... Cordero, because Heath Bell is out of their price range, while Brad Lidge or Matt Capps would be a bit combustible.

Probable solution: Getting Cordero to come back for a multiyear deal for a lower average annual value on the deal ought to work for the two parties, but if cost is still an object, Jocketty could reach for a mid-market right-hander like Octavio Dotel or Frank Francisco as a placeholder, and groom Cuban flamethrower Aroldis Chapman for the role of save generator.

3. Lineup choices.

The fun challenge for the Reds will be seeing how they integrate the talent they have coming up. Devin Mesoraco should win a share of the catching duties, while Zack Cozart will give them a solid two-way player at short. Juan Francisco and Yonder Alonso could both slug their way into taking playing time from Chris Heisey in left, but Francisco could also start nabbing starts from Scott Rolen at third base.

Probable solution: Dusty Baker has built job-sharing set-ups in the past, so this mini youth movement won't get nipped in the bud. However, Alonso is getting dangled in trade talks; if he's dealt for a starting pitcher, that would at least kill those Joey Votto trade rumors deader than Elvis.

Pittsburgh Pirates

1. Third base: Pedro Alvarez.

Because the Pirates have already signed Rod Barajas to catch and Clint Barmes to play shortstop, their best hope for significant offensive improvement from baseball's worst in 2011, according to Baseball Prospectus' True Average, is going to be for Alvarez to turn into the guy they thought they were getting when they made him the second overall selection of the 2008 draft. A .561 OPS with bad defense simply isn't going to fly, but the danger for the Bucs is that they'll quit on Alvarez too soon -- he's already approaching club options for 2013 and 2014.

Likely solution: Other than working with Alvarez, there isn't one. If he continues to struggle, they can use Josh Harrison for singles and steals.

2. Offense from the corners.

They've already offered Derrek Lee arbitration, which would staff first base while keeping Garrett Jones in right field. But they also have Jose Tabata and Alex Presley to employ in the outfield corners. That doesn't really add up to great power from these three power slots, even if they keep Lee. A Jones-Lee platoon might sound great in the abstract, but you can bet that Lee wouldn't care for it, while Tabata's power is still mostly a matter of anticipation that he'll eventually have some. If Lee walks, platooning Jones with the recently signed Nick Evans is a cheap solution -- but still leaves the Bucs light on power.

Likely solution: Again, there isn't one. The farm system doesn't have the next Willie Stargell on tap.

3. Take stock.

For a team whose upside might scrape 80 wins, the Pirates already have a fairly settled lineup, rotation and bullpen. Shopping closer Joel Hanrahan might have made sense most winters, but with the closer market overstocked with options, there are few guarantees that GM Neal Huntington could add the kind of prospects to make it worthwhile. Gunning for ending the 19-season losing streak might be worthwhile, but if that's this team's upside, how excited about that should anyone really be?

Chicago Cubs

Not trying to be Zen-like about this, but the Cubs' issues transcend single positions and demand expansive solutions ...

1. Achieve closure. (Carlos Zambrano)

Before moving on to new business, the Cubs' new brain trust needs to be sure that it's finished up with the most noisome bit of old business. To get even a middling prospect, the Cubs would need to eat just about all of the $18 million that Zambrano's due and get him to waive his no-trade clause.

As tense as Big Z's relationship with his employers has been, you can understand some of his frustration -- moving him to the bullpen in 2010 was genuinely stupid, and who wouldn't get exasperated with being a Cub? Whether the choice is to clean the slate or make a deal, it's worthwhile to choose and move on.

Likely outcome: Unless the Marlins' idea of getting him to defer salary goes anywhere, get used to the idea that Zambrano will be with the Cubs in camp when pitchers and catchers report.

2. Acquire patience and power (6.9 percent walk rate, 29th in MLB)

This isn't just the fault of veterans Alfonso Soriano (5.3 percent walk rate in 2011) and Marlon Byrd (5.2); kids like Starlin Castro (4.9) and Darwin Barney (3.9) don't work their way aboard either. It's hard to sustain any kind of offense without baserunners, and right now the only regular with a walk rate better than league average is Geovany Soto. And with Carlos Pena and Aramis Ramirez vacating the infield corners, the Cubs are losing two of their best power sources.

Likely outcome: Top prospect Brett Jackson (73 walks in 512 PAs in the minors) will make the team at some point, likely replacing Byrd in center (if he's dealt). The Cubs just signed David DeJesus for right field, but short of re-signing Pena or landing either Pujols or Fielder to man first base, it's going to take some pretty creative wheeling and dealing to significantly improve matters in Year 1 of the Theo Epstein era.

3. Improve the defense (.699 Defensive Efficiency, 26th in MLB)

The new crew in charge talks about defense a bit, and it's easy to understand why, given the weak performance afield of the group it's inheriting. In particular, it's no secret that Castro's brand of shortstop play didn't do the Cubs any favors, as he ranked last among big league shortstops in Total Zone and BIS' Defensive Runs Saved.

Likely outcome: The upside of having a young star at short will mean a lot of extra infield practice for Castro in February, and Jackson will improve the outfield once he's up. But if Castro's footwork doesn't improve, moving him to third and the much more slick Barney to short (where his bat would profile better) could eventually be part of the solution.

Houston Astros

1. Picking a GM.

This is it, the wellspring from which everything else will flow, and hiring Ed Wade for the pointless kamikaze run of 2008 represents what you get when you choose the bitter dregs. The good news is that Jim Crane's gang certainly seems to have the right names on its short list, with GM Andrew Friedman of the Rays and Rangers assistant GM Thad Levine at the top. Guys like AGM Rick Hahn of the White Sox, DeJon Watson or Logan White from the Dodgers, former Royals GM Allard Baird or former D-backs AGM Peter Woodfork might also turn up. As many people as opted out of the Orioles' front-office gig may want in on Houston's.

Likely solution: It's entirely dependent on who gets interviewed and who makes the right impression, but it already looks like they've got the right people in mind. If they were only picking between Friedman and Levine, there wouldn't be a wrong answer.

2. Shortstop: Open (Barmes, departed to Pittsburgh as a free agent)

Barmes provided plus defense and modest offense, but cashed in on that already, leaving Houston with Angel Sanchez atop the depth chart. Sanchez's poor range translates into ugly defensive numbers. With the rotation representing one of the few assets the Astros can brag about, they'd do well to provide the men on the mound with an assist afield with a defensive upgrade.

Likely solution: The interim until they pick a GM could hamstring their efforts to get someone like Alex Gonzalez signed to help maintain the starting pitchers' value and hold the fort until Jon Villar or Jiovanni Mier is ready.

3. Outfield: Open.

“Open” not in the sense that the Astros are losing anybody of note, but in that the new GM is going to have to decide if some combination of Brian Bogusevic, J.D. Martinez, Jason Bourgeois and Jordan Schafer is really what he wants out there, with Carlos Lee to plant in left whenever he isn't at first base.

Likely solution: Don't be surprised if a cheap veteran who can play all three slots -- say, a guy like Fred Lewis -- gets added to the mix.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

SweetSpot Network roundup

February, 11, 2011
2/11/11
2:00
PM ET
This is normally something the fine guys at The Platoon Advantage do every day during the season (and twice a week in the offseason), but I wanted to co-opt their idea to bring you some of the best, recent work from around the SweetSpot Network. I asked Bill and TCM if it was OK for me to borrow their feature and they were thrilled to have the day off.
  • Baseballin' on a Budget (A's): The Value of the Oakland Bullpen. Dan Hennessey thinks the A's new bullpen is going to be a big help in 2011.
  • GhostRunner on First (Blue Jays): Dear God No. Drew Fairservice is not very keen on the Jays kicking the tires on Michael Young.
  • Pro Ball NW (Mariners): 40 Man, Player by Player, Ichiro Suzuki. How will the M's approach their next contract talks with Ichiro, and how will that affect the rest of their roster.
  • Weaver's Tantrum (Orioles): The Lefties. Dave's going through the O's position battles that will be decided in spring training. First up, the LOOGYs.
  • Baseball Time in Arlington (Rangers): The Delusional Nutjob and His Enablers. This is a nice companion piece, with a slightly different outlook, to the one Austin wrote in this space Thursday. And puts the blame for the Rangers/Michael Young fiasco squarely on Young.
  • The Ray Area: The Skipper Speaks. Mark got to hang out with Tampa manager Joe Maddon the other night, and came away impressed and with the scoop on the 2011 Rays.
  • Fire Brand of the American League (Red Sox): Theo Epstein Throws a Bunch of Darts at a Wall. Darryl Johnston's impressed by the quantity of arms the Sox have stacked up to handle the back end of the bullpen.
  • Royals Authority: End of 2011 Checklist. What should the Royals be looking to accomplish on the field in the coming year?
  • The Daily Fungo (Tigers): RIP Woodie Fryman. Mike says goodbye to a Tigers great.
  • Nick's Twins Blog: Experience Matters. Nick Nelson thinks the Twins, as is their M.O., are going to pursue some veteran insurance up the middle
  • It's About the Money, Stupid (Yankees): Highest-paid players, per team. An awesome graphical representation of the highest-paid player on each team in the Bigs. Bonus linkage: No really, the Vlad signing was bad. Brien hates on the Vlad signing, which jibes with what Keith Law had to say about the O's.
  • Capital Avenue Club (Braves): Where is the love? Kevin Orris on a Braves prospect he thinks CAC's Peter Hjort has overlooked, outfielder Adam Milligan.
  • The View from the Bleachers (Cubs): Best Power Hitters Under Six Feet Tall. Joe provides a list of … wait for it … the best power hitters under 6 feet tall! It's a pretty fascinating list; I would've bet money on four of the first five guys being taller than that.
  • Redleg Nation: Maple Street Press Reds Annual. You might have noticed that just about every team has one (or more!) of these out now, annual publications previewing the team with pieces written by team bloggers and the like. They're generally pretty awesome, and it looks like the Reds are no exception.
  • Austin's Astros 290 Blog: Andy Pettitte belongs. No question mark. Period. Austin leaves no doubt at all about his feelings on the recently retired pitcher's Hall of Fame candidacy. I don't get how one can be that sure about Pettitte, but you have to appreciate conviction like that.
  • Dodger Thoughts: The Dodgers According to Ned Colletti. A long, thorough, excellent interview with the Dodgers GM, who believes the Dodgers played all of 10 days of championship-quality baseball in 2010.
  • Disciples of Uecker (Brewers): An Unfortunate Comparison for Mat Gamel. Keith Law is very down on Houston prospect Brett Wallace's swing and chances for a productive big league career. Jack sees a lot of troubling parallels between Wallace and one of the Brewers' top prospects.
  • Mets Today: Would You Trade for Michael Young? Pondering the frustrated player's potential fit with the Mets. These are some really outlandish proposals, but that's what makes it fun!
  • Crashburn Alley (Phillies): Phillies Kick Tires, Inquire About Michael Young. And another Youngapalooza post wondering if Young is a fit for the team (but this one apparently came close to happening). Bill analyzes where Young might play, and whether or not he'd be an upgrade there.
  • Ducksnorts (Padres): Breakouts, Newcomers, and offseason Moves. Geoff had an open thread a few days ago, and now provides some long and thoughtful answers to questions. Stuff about Maybin, Headley and Venable; also, Geoff thinks Jed Hoyer had a highly successful offseason.
  • Bay City Ball (Giants): Matt Cain is Controversial. Really. "To the average fan, Matt Cain must seem like about the least controversial player on the Giants. He mostly keeps quiet to the press, doesn’t get arrested for having pot in his car. … But in the world of nerds arguing over statistics on the internet, Matt Cain is the most divisive Giant since Fred Lewis ..."
  • Fungoes (Cardinals): No Place for Edmonds. Pip is really, really not a fan of the Cardinals signing Jim Edmonds, and gives you a nice orderly list of five reasons why. And a graph!
  • Nationals Baseball: Bizzo? Rowden?. "It was cute for a while, this [former Nats GM Jim] Bowden impression, but signing Alex Cintron, that's going too far. That makes me want to send Anthony Hopkins out to Viera to see if [current Nats GM Mike] Rizzo has been demonically possessed by Bowden's spirit."
  • The Platoon Advantage: The Case Against Barry Bonds' Collusion Case. Bill puts to bed once and for all the idea that Barry Bonds was colluded against in 2008. Bonus linkage: Obligations. With so many focused on what the Rangers owe Michael Young, The Common Man wonders what Michael Young owes the Rangers. And what both of them owe Texas fans.
Jason Rosenberg is the founder and lead writer of "It's About The Money, Stupid," a SweetSpot Network member. IIATMS can be found on Facebook and on Twitter.

Can Brewers really afford Prince Fielder?

February, 16, 2010
2/16/10
6:12
PM ET
Dave Begel on the the ultimate disposition of Milwaukee's large first baseman:
    The question that faces us is whether Prince Fielder is too big for the Milwaukee Brewers.

    There is, of course, no simple answer to that question. But a look at the complex factors that lead to an answer has to begin with what you think about the Milwaukee Brewers.

    --snip--

    If you think they are a team that should contend every year and expect that they will always be in the hunt for a playoff berth, then you say of course you have to sign Fielder. Both Braun and Fielder are better when they are both in the lineup.

    But if you believe the Brewers are trying to catch lightning in a bottle and need a minor miracle to win a World Series against the big boys, then you say it's okay to trade Fielder. God knows what you could get for him, but it would certainly be a lot of talent.

    Now, I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers brass tried to sign Fielder, no matter how much it takes. They want people to think they are one of the big boys, too.

    But they aren't. And unless they do something spectacular this year, I think this team gets a lot closer to the World Series without Prince Fielder in the lineup.

Frankly, this seems obvious to me.

Fielder's listed at 5'11" and 270 pounds. He turns 26 this spring. His first big multi-year contract is going to run into his early 30s. Does anyone really see Fielder as a premier player when he's 30, 31? In the National League, where you have to play a little defense every so often?

Hey, anything's possible. But I will submit that there's never been a player in the majors who was built like Fielder and enjoyed a long and productive career. Which doesn't mean it can't be done. I just don't think it's somthing to count on, when your franchise plays in the smallest media market in the majors (or second smallest; Milwaukee's essentially tied with Cincinnati).

There's something else to consider: Fielder's current two-year deal expires after this season, and he'll be due a significant raise in 2011. If the Brewers trade him now he'll be more valuable to his new club and Milwaukee will save something like $25 million.

Of course the big problem is that they'd essentially be announcing to the world, and more relevantly their fans, that they're punting 2010. Even if they're not, really. With Casey McGehee, deservedly or not, slotted as the Brewers' every-day third baseman, Mat Gamel is slotted for reserve duties, which is odd only because Gamel's quite likely a better player than McGehee.

But McGehee is going to play, and while he's on third base there's no obvious reason why Gamel couldn't give the club decent production at first base. He doesn't have Fielder's power -- few humans do -- but he'd hit 25 homers and get on base regularly enough, and he'd probably get to more grounders than the big guy.

In the short term, trading Fielder would probably cost the Brewers three or four wins. In the long term, it might add a dozen (or many more if the Brewers trade for the right prospects).

It's a tough question, but every franchise must answer it: "What kind of team do you want to be?"

P.s. Fielder's agent is Scott Boras. And in a couple of years the Red Sox and the Yankees might both be looking for a DH.

Brewers holding prospects this time

June, 23, 2009
6/23/09
10:40
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MLB Rumors' Drew Silva on the prospect of the Brewers trading prospects:
    According to the Associated Press, via ESPN.com, the Brewers aren't likely to part with either third baseman Mat Gamel or shortstop Alcides Escobar before the July 31 trade deadline.

    This represents a refreshing change in club philosophy from last season, when Milwaukee unloaded top outfield prospect Matt LaPorta to the Indians for a couple months of CC Sabathia. Gamel, 23, is batting .244/.326/.402 with two home runs and 12 RBI through his first 82 major league at-bats, while the 22-year-old Escobar is coming into his own at the Triple-A level with 18 doubles, four triples and three home runs in 285 at-bats.

    The Brewers are 37-32 this season, one game behind the Cardinals in the NL Central.

LaPorta's a first baseman or a corner outfielder. The Brewers had (and have) in those spots: Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, and Ryan Braun. All of them fairly young, all of them fairly cheap. Sure, I would have recommended trading Fielder instead of LaPorta in the quest for pitching, but: 1) it's not likely that the Brewers could have gotten Sabathia for Fielder; and 2) who would you rather have in 2009: LaPorta or Fielder?

The trade last season worked exactly as such trades are supposed to work. The Brewers unloaded a bit of surplus talent, they picked up a pitcher without whom they absolutely would not have reached the postseason, and they picked up a couple of draft picks when said pitcher signed with the Yankees.

It's not often, though, that you can pick up a difference-maker like Sabathia. Also, Gamel and Escobar aren't necessarily surplus. Gamel's a third baseman; the Brewers need a third baseman. Escobar's a shortstop; the Brewers don't necessarily need a shortstop, but they might need a second baseman at some point within the next 12 months. Yes, it would be a waste of talent to play Escobar or J.J. Hardy at second base, and perhaps one of them should be exchanged for help at that position or some other. But now isn't the time.

Brewers summon top prospect Gamel

May, 14, 2009
5/14/09
2:50
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As Tom Haudricort reports, the Brewers have recalled Mat Gamel, one of their top prospects. But where does he fit?
  Gamel
    The Brewers summoned Gamel, their top offensive prospect, to the majors Wednesday night in anticipation of using the third baseman as their designated hitter in interleague play.

    To make room on the roster for Gamel, the Brewers sent reserve outfielder Brad Nelson outright to Class AAA Nashville. Nelson, who was hitless in 21 at-bats this season, including 14 pinch-hit appearances, has the right to decline the assignment and become a free agent.

    In the coming weeks, the Brewers have three interleague series on the road, where the designated hitter will be used. The first of those series is May 22-24 in Minnesota.

    Rather than wait for those series, the Brewers opted to summon Gamel from Nashville and let him get his feet get wet with some at-bats off the bench and perhaps an occasional start.

    "He'll probably get some pinch-hits, get acclimated a little bit to the big leagues," said manager Ken Macha. "He may get a start. We'll see how that all plays out.

    "This kid is probably our best prospect. I don't think the plan is to have him sitting on the bench."

    --snip--

    Selected in the fourth round of the 2005 June draft, Gamel is not known for his defense. He committed an astounding 53 errors at Class A Brevard County in 2007 and 32 combined last season at Class AA Huntsville and Nashville.

    Gamel committed eight errors this season but most came in the first few weeks and reports said he was playing better in the field recently.

    --snip--

    Bill Hall, who has started 27 games at third base, has begun to struggle again against right-handed pitching (.215 batting average). But Melvin said the Gamel move doesn't signal a platoon or the possibility of trading Hall to open the position.

    "We're not talking about a trade at this point," said Melvin. "That's not what this is about."

Maybe not. But Gamel's an excellent hitter. His line in 127 Double-A games: .329/.395/.537. His line in 38 Triple-A games: .321/.411/.607. Granted, that's not a great deal of Triple-A action, but what are you gonna do? The guy turns 24 this summer. Do you let him spend another month or two in Nashville, mashing, while Bill Hall flounders against right-handed pitchers?

The Brewers are 20-14. So are the Reds. So are the Cardinals. The Cubs are 19-14. This is most definitely not the time for timidity. If Gamel's good enough to DH, he's good enough to platoon with Hall -- who's solid against lefties -- at third base, with Hall or Craig Counsell coming in for defense when the Brewers are ahead.

The Brewers have enough talent in the organization to reach the playoffs this fall. But while that's most of the battle, there's more. In addition to getting a little lucky, you also have to get that talent on the field. The Twins didn't do that last year, and it cost them. After Gamel's stint ends as the DH, we'll see what the Brewers do with their talent.

A few modest proposals

April, 15, 2009
4/15/09
11:21
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Not much blogging yesterday (or today) because I foolishly left my wireless card at home, which left me stuck on a train to Seattle for four hours with no Internet access (back to "normal" tonight). On a happier note, I spent some of those four hours (finally) reading Sports Illustrated's baseball preview, which includes a "modest proposal" for every club (all of which were "compiled" by Joe Sheehan, one of our friends over at Baseball Prospectus). Running through a few of the more interesting proposals:

Red Sox: Use Jed Lowrie as leadoff man rather than Jacoby Ellsbury.

I love the idea. Lowrie was pretty good last year despite a wrist injury that sapped his strength for much of the season. He played exceptionally well in spring training. And now his wrist is hurting again, so he's not going to be playing shortstop -- let alone leading off -- for quite some time, it seems. Julio Lugo's out, too. Nick Green played shortstop last night. And people wonder why it's hard to predict the standings.

Twins: Send Delmon Young back to the minors, where he might learn to hit.

Most of the preseason stuff I read suggested that Michael Cuddyer should have been the odd man out in the Twins' outfield, with Young joining Carlos Gomez and Denard Span as regulars. The assumption, as I recall, was that Young needs to play regularly if he's going to improve. But even just looking at performance, Young actually out-hit Cuddyer last season. And of course he's seven years younger. So unless someone can demonstrate that Young would develop significantly quicker in the minors, I think you leave him in the majors and let him take his lumps for 450-500 plate appearances this season.

Indians: Don't be shy about dumping Travis Hafner in favor of Matt LaPorta.

The Indians have to give Hafner one more shot, and by "shot" I mean at least a couple of months. If not a couple of years, since they still owe him $49 million and he was real good just two seasons ago. As usual, though, there's a lesson here: long-term commitments to sluggardly sluggers often bite you in the backside.

Phillies: Break up lefties in the lineup with Jayson Werth.

This one deserves a bit of extra credit for the author's prescience ...

    Having replaced lumbering Pat Burrell in leftfield with lumbering Raul Ibanez, the Phillies find themselves with the 3-4-5 part of their lineup batting exclusively from the left side. That will be a major tactical issue late in games, when opposing managers bring in relief specialists to face Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Ibanez in high-leverage situations. All lefthanded hitters struggle against such lefties as the Braves' Mike Gonzalez and the Mets' Pedro Feliciano. Sliding Jayson Werth (career .374 on-base percentage, .545 slugging versus lefthanders) into the fifth spot ahead of Ibanez would force managers to choose between making pitching change or taking a bad matchup, a decision that will come up repeatedly in the 36 games games Philadelphia plays against its top two division rivals.
Sure enough, that's exactly what happened in the Phillies' very first game, as Mike Gonzalez was able to escape a big ninth-inning jam by retiring a couple of those lefty hitters. I'll bet a silver dollar that Charlie Manuel does eventually break those guys up when a southpaw is starting.

Brewers: Trade Prince Fielder, play Mat Gamel instead.

This echoes a suggestion I made last year, I believe. My thought was that Ryan Braun should wind up at first base instead of Fielder, but Gamel -- who was 22 last season and tore up the Double-A Southern League -- would fit in nicely, too. Perhaps as soon as right now. Not that the Brewers should just give Fielder away; after all, he's a fine hitter and he's still cheap. But he doesn't figure to age particularly well, and low-revenue teams simply can't afford to let major league talent waste away in the minors. The Brewers need to either play Gamel or trade him (as they did with LaPorta last summer; you judge how well that worked out).

Diamondbacks: Even if he's healthy, Eric Byrnes should be a fourth outfielder.

Well, yeah. I'm mentioning this one only because I love this line: "Energy is good, left turns at first base are better; Byrnes and his .325 career OBP don't provide enough of the latter."

Giants: Trade Barry Zito.

As the argument goes, the Giants already have three young starters who are better than Zito (true), they've got Randy Johnson this season (also true), and they've got a couple of hot prospects in the minors who may well be ready in 2010. Well, OK. But what about 2009? And exactly what might the Giants expect in return for a pitcher -- for the sake of argument, we'll say Barry Zito -- who's a No. 5 starter for most clubs but is still owed a gazillion dollars? I say the Giants should keep Zito until the exact moment that they just can't stand to look at him for one more #@&%$ second. And then they release him.

Padres: Trade Brian Giles.

Boy, this is a tough one. The Padres have two good hitters and Giles is one of them and the fans probably wouldn't be real thrilled if he got sent along to a contender. On the other hand, Giles is 38 (38!) and the Padres' farm system isn't exactly loaded with prospects. So, yeah: they should trade him for prospects if they can. In fact, anything else should be considered malpractice.

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