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This is back-of-the-napkin stuff ... but fun back-of-the-napkin stuff. As we wait to see if Prince Fielder does land in Washington, let's check out the state of the NL East. We'll go position by position and rank the players. Then we'll come up with a final tally (five points for first, four for second, etc.)

Catcher
1. Brian McCann, Braves
2. Wilson Ramos, Nationals
3. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
4. Josh Thole, Mets
5. John Buck, Marlins

Phillies fans will storm the bastille over this one and say I'm underestimating Ruiz's ability to call a game, but I think Wilson Ramos has a chance to be something special. He hit .267/.334/.445 as a rookie, spending most of the season at just 23 years old. The thing that bodes well is that his walk rate improved from 4 percent in Triple-A in 2010 to 8.7 percent last season. And to think they got him from the Twins for Matt Capps. Ruiz is an underrated player -- he's posted a .376 OBP the past three seasons -- but Ramos' power and potential for improvement put him at No. 2 behind McCann.

First base
1. Freddie Freeman, Braves
2. Ryan Howard/Jim Thome, Phillies
3. Ike Davis, Mets
4. Gaby Sanchez, Marlins
5. Adam LaRoche, Nationals

Yes, there's huge value for the Nationals in signing Prince Fielder. With Davis and LaRoche coming off serious injuries and Howard out for at least a couple months, I have to give the top nod to Freeman. Sure, maybe he'll succumb to the dreaded sophomore jinx, but baseball history also tells us that players often make a huge leap from age 21 to age 22. If Davis hits like he did in the 36 games he played last year (.302/.383/.543) then he's an All-Star candidate, but while he says he's "good to go" for spring training, we'll have to wait to see how his ankle responds. As for Sanchez, he's a lukewarm cup of coffee on a 32-degree day.

Second base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Danny Espinosa, Nationals
3. Dan Uggla, Braves
4. Daniel Murphy, Mets
5. Omar Infante, Marlins

I put Utley first with some hesitation: His OPS totals since 2007 read .976, .915, .905, .832 and .769. Still, that .769 figure is better than Uggla or Espinosa produced in 2011, and Utley still carries a good glove. It's defense and predicted second-season improvement that pushes Espinosa over Uggla. Murphy doesn't hit many home runs or draw many walks, so most of his offensive value resides in his batting average. If he hits .320 again, he's a good player. If he hits .290, then he's still better than Infante.

Third base
1. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
4. Chipper Jones, Braves
5. Placido Polanco, Phillies

If healthy, Zimmerman is one of the best players in the league. Ramirez and Wright were once part of that discussion, but no longer. Both players had the worst years of their careers in 2011. Will Wright rebound with the fences moved in at Citi Field? Will Ramirez bounce back and handle the transition to third base? Your guess is as good as mine. Chipper is aging gracefully, playing through injuries but still putting up respectable numbers. If this is his last season, I hope he goes out in style.

Shortstop
1. Jose Reyes, Marlins
2. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
3. Ruben Tejada, Mets
4. Ian Desmond, Nationals
5. Tyler Pastornicky, Braves

Not much debate here. Tejada posted a .360 OBP in 2011 as a 21-year-old. He doesn't have any power, but I believe the Mets are in good hands at shortstop. The same can't be said about Desmond, who must improve his defense (23 errors) and approach at the plate (139/35 SO/BB ratio). Pastornicky hit .314 in the minors last year, including .365 in 27 games in Triple-A. He puts the ball in play and has some speed, but won't hit for much power or draw many walks, so he'll need to hit for a good average to hold the job.

Left field
1. Michael Morse, Nationals
2. Martin Prado, Braves
3. Logan Morrison, Marlins
4. Domonic Brown/John Mayberry, Phillies
5. Jason Bay, Mets

We have to consider Morse the real deal by now, don't we? Although he comes with a few caveats: That 126/36 SO/BB ratio is a concern; so is his .344 average on balls in play, which ranked 15th in the majors (can he repeat that figure?); and finally, he plays left field a bit like a fire hydrant. By the way, how bad is this group defensively? Morrison may have even less range than Morse, Brown looked terrible in right field with the Phillies last year and Bay isn't getting paid $16 million because he's adept at running down balls in the gap. Actually, I'm not sure what he's getting paid for.

Center field
1. Shane Victorino, Phillies
2. Michael Bourn, Braves
3. Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins
4. Andres Torres, Mets
5. Roger Bernadina, Nationals

This seems pretty straightforward other than the ongoing raging debate between Andres Torres fans and Roger Bernadina fans.

Right field
1. Mike Stanton, Marlins
2. Hunter Pence, Phillies
3. Jason Heyward, Braves
4. Jayson Werth, Nationals
5. Lucas Duda, Mets

Mike Stanton ... 2012 National League MVP? Too soon? I'm just saying don't be surprised if it happens.

No. 1 starter
1. Roy Halladay, Phillies
2. Josh Johnson, Marlins
3. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
4. Tim Hudson, Braves
5. Johan Santana, Mets

Is there a more important player in the majors in 2012 than Johnson? The Marlins fancy themselves contenders but they need a healthy Johnson headlining the rotation. After leading the NL with a 2.30 ERA in 2010, he had posted a 1.64 ERA through 10 starts in 2011 before shoulder tendinitis shelved him for the season. He's been throwing and long tossing and is expected to be 100 percent for spring training. Strasburg has the ability to be just as dominant as Halladay and Johnson, but the Nationals will likely monitor his innings in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery.

No. 2 starter
1. Cliff Lee, Phillies
2. Gio Gonzalez, Nationals
3. Mark Buehrle, Marlins
4. Tommy Hanson, Braves
5. R.A. Dickey, Mets

This is a terrific group of No. 2 starters, as even the knuckleballer Dickey posted a 3.28 ERA in 2011 (and 3.08 ERA over the past two seasons). Hanson has Cy Young ability, but his own shoulder issues from late last season raise a red flag.

No. 3 starter
1. Cole Hamels, Phillies
2. Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals
3. Anibal Sanchez, Marlins
4. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
5. Mike Pelfrey, Mets

Zimmermann is the sleeping giant in the Nationals rotation. His strikeout/walk ratio of 4.0 ranked 11th-best among starters in 2011 and another year beyond his own TJ surgery should help him develop the stamina to improve on his second-half numbers (2.66 ERA before the All-Star break, 4.47 after). I'm not a big Jurrjens fan; he's a good pitcher, but he's now battled injuries two seasons in a row and his strikeout rate took a big dip last season.

No. 4 starter
1. Brandon Beachy, Braves
2. Vance Worley, Phillies
3. John Lannan, Nationals
4. Jonathon Niese, Mets
5. Ricky Nolasco, Marlins

You could draw this list out of a hat. Beachy and Worley surprised many with their exceptional rookie seasons; I believe both are for real, as both seemed to deliver better-than-advertised fastballs. Now they just have to prove they can become seven-inning pitchers instead of five or six. Niese is an excellent breakout candidate in 2012: He throws hard enough for a lefty (90-91), gets strikeouts, doesn't walk too many, gets groundballs. In fact, his FIP (fielding independent pitching) was 3.36 compared to his actual ERA of 4.40. It wouldn't surprise me to see him win 15 games with a 3.40 ERA. It would surprise me if Nolasco does that; 2008 is starting to look further and further in the rear-view mirror.

No. 5 starter
1. Mike Minor, Braves
2. Carlos Zambrano, Marlins
3. Dillon Gee, Mets
4. Chien-Ming Wang, Nationals
5. Joe Blanton/Kyle Kendrick, Phillies

If you're talking depth, the big edge here goes to the Braves, who also have prospects Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado and Arodys Vizcaino ready to step in. Big Z is a nice gamble by the Marlins as a No. 5 starter, you could do worse.

Closer
1. Craig Kimbrel, Braves
2. Jonathan Papelbon, Phillies
3. Drew Storen, Nationals
4. Heath Bell, Marlins
5. Frank Francisco, Mets

As dominant as Kimbrel was in winning Rookie of the Year honors (14.8 K's per nine), he did blow eight saves. But Papelbon is just one season removed from his own season of eight blown saves. Factor in Kimbrel's K rate and slightly heavier workload, and I'll give him the slight nod. Bell will have to prove himself away from the friendly confines of Petco Park, so Storen rates the clear No. 3 here.

Bullpen
1. Braves -- Jonny Venters, Eric O'Flaherty, Kris Medlen, Cristhian Martinez, Anthony Varvaro
2. Marlins -- Steve Cishek, Edward Mujica, Mike Dunn, Ryan Webb, Randy Choate
3. Nationals -- Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett, Henry Rodriguez, Ryan Perry, Tom Gorzelanny
4. Phillies -- Antonio Bastardo, Michael Stutes, Dontrelle Willis, David Herndon, Jose Contreras
5. Mets -- Bobby Parnell, Jon Rauch, Pedro Beato, Tim Byrdak, Manny Acosta

The top four teams all project to have solid-to-excellent pens. Venters and Clippard are arguably the two best set-up guys in baseball. Cishek is the rare sidearmer who can get lefties out as well as righties and he allowed just one home run in 54 innings as a rookie. The Phillies don't need many innings from their pen and while Willis could be a terrific lefty killer (lefties hit .127 off him in 2011), Bastardo must rebound from his late-season fatigue.

Intangibles
1. Marlins
2. Phillies
3. Braves
4. Nationals
5. Mets

New stadium, new free agents, new manager, new uniforms -- I view all of that as a plus for the Marlins. The playoffs left a sour taste for the Phillies' veteran-heavy squad and those guys will want nothing more than to win a sixth straight division title. The Braves have plenty of incentive after their late-season collapse. The Nationals are young but have no chip on their shoulder. But if they sign Prince ...

The final tally
1. Phillies, 58 points
2. Braves, 56 points
3. Marlins, 49 points
4. Nationals, 48 points
5. Mets, 29 points

And the napkin says the Phillies are still the division favorite. What, you want to bet against Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels?

The misery of the Braves’ 2011 meltdown demands a certain resiliency and response. However, from the wreckage of the banged-up ballclub that would have been hard-pressed to replicate the Cardinals’ postseason success, there’s plenty of material to work with. The Phillies are far from invincible, the wild card’s in play every year, and the chances of retooling and winning 90 games or more in 2012 are good.

Dealing away Derek Lowe took back $5 million for the 2012 payroll -- which the arbitration cases of Michael Bourn, Jair Jurrjens, Martin Prado, and Eric O’Flaherty will gobble up in no time flat -- but the Braves’ overall payroll picture shouldn’t be cause for concern. Which leaves a question: What do the Braves need?

Not starting pitching, certainly. With Tommy Hanson due back from shoulder surgery and with Brandon Beachy, Mike Minor and Randall Delgado already looking good, with Julio Teheran, Arodys Vizcaino and J.J. Hoover not far behind, the Braves can avoid repeating the Lowe mistake -- overpaying for a veteran mediocrity in the rotation. The bullpen’s also stocked with top-shelf arms. And because Freddie Freeman’s already set at first base, Atlanta also doesn’t have to play in the most expensive sweepstakes of all this winter.

The Braves’ needs are simple: They need a thumper for left field, and they need a better all-around player than Alex Gonzalez at shortstop. And fortunately for Atlanta, the market has both things on offer.

Whether or not the Braves could renew their relationship with Rafael Furcal to provide the answer at short may well prove to be the key decision of their offseason. In part, there’s the possibility that Furcal will cost less than the alternatives: Jose Reyes would be perfect, but Liberty Media’s purse strings open only so far. And convince Jimmy Rollins to abandon Philly’s evil empire? It’s possible, but a deal longer than three years for a thirtysomething shortstop might be too rich for their blood as well.

Which is why Furcal would make for an ideal solution. Between a markdown for his injury history, his age (already 34), and his willingness to take a three-year deal during his previous free agency after the 2008 season, he might be a tidy fit into Atlanta’s infield and budget. Paired up with Bourn atop Fredi Gonzalez’s lineup would also give Atlanta some nice potential for basepaths havoc and good OBPs in front of their boppers. Admittedly, Furcal’s coming off a season where he produced his lowest walk rate (7.6 percent) since 2002. And Bourn’s 2011 walk rate similarly plummeted from just shy of 10 to 7.3 percent. But both hitters have done better, and Furcal’s .240 BABIP was the real OBP-sapping development, and that shouldn’t last.

If anything of this starts getting the Liberty execs squawking over the expense, all’s not lost. GM Frank Wren’s roster arms him with considerable freedom of action. Because of that depth in young pitching talent, he can afford to dangle Jurrjens in front of teams disenchanted by a free-agent market overstocked on recently injured thirtysomethings. The Braves don’t have to deal Jurrjens, but they can see what the market for him might be.

Similarly, because Martin Prado’s a moving part who can be wedged into a lineup at second, third or left, he’s also someone Wren can afford to shop around, because he can be taken as a short-term fix for so many teams at several different positions (as handy as it might be to have him around as an insurance policy against Chipper Jones’ next disabling injury or the failure to find a left fielder).

But having both available to peddle plus the bounty of the farm system gives Wren a hand with which he might do more than dump arb-eligibles to control payroll -- he could use them in a package to get an outfield bat for left. The White Sox’s rumored shopping of Carlos Quentin might a great place to start, giving the Braves’ lineup a second right-handed slugger to balance out their attack. Quentin’s also arb-eligible and just a year from free agency, but the potential for a salary-neutral exchange for 2012 is there.

The alternatives on the market aren’t great, but they are interested. Along the lines suggested yesterday, a creative deal for Grady Sizemore could work, but so too might J.D. Drew in a short-term agreement. The problem for both would be that they’d exacerbate the left-wards lean to the lineup. Renewing their acquaintance with Andruw Jones might be part of a cheap platoon arrangement with the ubiquitous Eric Hinske.

Whatever solutions Wren and company land upon, there’s plenty to work with, and perhaps even more to look forward to. But with Chipper Jones’ career winding down and commitments to Brian McCann and Tim Hudson (though there are options for both for 2013), as well as Bourn ending soon, angling for win-now solutions ought to be under consideration.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

We’re back from a crazy weekend of wins, losses, trades, headhunting and so much more in the greatest sport, and Mark Simon and I are here to chronicle it for Monday’s Baseball Today podcast. Among the many topics discussed:

1. The trade deadline has passed, and some teams look better, others look a lot better. A few teams look exactly the same. We name winners and losers.

2. Defense plays a critical role in how teams improved as well, and Mark goes in depth to state the biggest names.

3. If it’s Monday it must be Power Rankings day, and while Mark and I have the same 10 teams on our list, it’s a different order. One team that didn’t make it gets its shot starting Monday night.

4. Do you remember your first baseball glove? We do!

5. From Brett Gardner to Carlos Guillen and Jered Weaver, some men behaved badly this weekend. Were they justified?

Plus: Excellent emails, checking out Monday’s schedule with Diamondbacks-Giants leading the way, Bombo Rivera, Joel Youngblood, Craig Counsell, Boone Logan, Jordan Zimmermann and so much more on a packed Monday Baseball Today podcast! Download it now!

Fact: Michael Bourn is a better player than Hunter Pence.

Fact: A lot of you probably think I'm nuts.

Hunter Pence returned pitcher Jarred Cosart (Keith Law's No. 17 prospect in his midseason top 50 update) and first baseman Jonathan Singleton (Law's No. 24 prospect).

Bourn, meanwhile, got the Astros three prospects from the Braves plus weak-hitting center fielder Jordan Schafer. As Law wrote in his analysis of the trade, "The return for Houston, however, is shockingly poor -- quantity over quality, to say the least -- and can't do Ed Wade any good in extending his status as GM beyond 'lame duck.' It makes me wonder if Houston had a ranking of Atlanta's top 25 prospects but looked at it upside-down."

Pence does have an extra season before hitting free agency, which increases his value, but my assumption is Wade didn't realize Bourn is a better player, merely focusing on Pence's home runs and RBIs. My guess is Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. also believes Hunter Pence is the superior player, probably looking at his home runs and RBIs.

And, of course, if you look just at the old-school numbers, Pence is better:

Pence, 2009-2011: .291, 61 home runs, 224 RBIs
Bourn, 2009-2011: .279, 6 home runs, 101 RBIs

Now, we now that comparison is lacking a few nuances of the games. It doesn't include the most important offensive skill, getting on base (Bourn has the higher on-base percentage over the past three seasons, .348 to .342). It doesn't factor in defense (Bourn is a two-time Gold Glove center fielder while Pence is an average right fielder). It doesn't factor in baserunning (Bourn is one of the best in the majors and is leading the league for the third straight season in stolen bases). And it doesn't factor in positional adjustment, an all-important consideration when evaluating player performance. (We don't expect shortstops to hit like David Ortiz, do we?)

The easy way to compare the value of the two is by looking at the WAR statistic, shorthand for wins above replacement level. This number calculates how many wins a player generates over a theoretical Triple-A player for his position. It factors in hitting, fielding and baserunning.

FanGraphs.com and Baseball-Reference.com calculate WAR in different ways, but both rate Bourn as the more valuable player since 2009:

FanGraphs WAR, 2009-2011
Bourn: 13.3
Pence: 9.9

Baseball-Reference WAR, 2009-2011
Bourn: 11.8
Pence: 6.4

The differences in value primarily come from different methods in evaluating fielding (FanGraphs likes both players' defense better than B-R).

You don't have to agree with or even like the WAR statistic. It's just a tool -- a very good one, in my opinion -- in evaluating player performance. I think the main confusion or disagreement comes in understanding the position importance. Bourn is compared to other center fielders; Pence to other right fielders.

For example, here are Bourn's 2010 and 2011 average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage lines compared to the average National League center fielder:

Bourn 2010: .265/.341/.346
NL CF 2010: .260/.329/.406

Bourn 2011: .303/.363/.403
NL CF 2011: .267/.336/.417

And here's Pence compared to the average National League right fielder:

Pence 2010: .282/.325/.461
NL RF 2010: .264/.334/.443

Pence 2011: .307/.355/.468
NL RF 2011: .265/.338/.437

That's a bunch of numbers, but it translates to: Bourn gets on base more than the average center fielder. So despite his lack of power, he's still a productive hitter for the position (more so in 2011). Pence is hitting better this year but overall he's about league average or slightly above for his position.

Look, this doesn't mean Bourn is a better hitter than Pence. It means he's similar to others for his position. If you factor in just hitting and baserunning, B-R says Bourn has been about 82 runs better than a replacement-level center fielder over the past three seasons; Pence about 73 runs better than a replacement-level right fielder. Factor in Bourn's defense and he's the more valuable player.

This isn't to knock Hunter Pence or the trade by the Phillies to get him. Considering the ages and health issues of many of their primary players, the Phillies should be in win-now mode. The fact that they didn't have to give up Domonic Brown made the trade a no-brainer for them. Pence makes them better in 2011 and 2012.

And for the Braves, they get exactly what they needed -- a leadoff hitter and center fielder. They're a better club right now than two days ago. It just appears -- for now -- that they gave a up a lot less to get their guy.

SERIES OF THE WEEK

There's so much good action this week, I have a whole list of must-watch series.

1. Arizona at San Francisco (Monday through Wednesday). Admit it: You keep waiting for the Diamondbacks to hit a skid. There's nothing fancy about Arizona, but it does rank third in the NL in runs scored (with help from their home park) and they have a bigger run differential on the season than the Giants. The D-backs are just two games back of the Giants and have won seven of their past 10 and 10 of their past 15. Justin Upton has led the way, hitting .368 with six home runs and 19 RBIs in 15 games since the All-Star break. Ian Kennedy starts Monday against Matt Cain in the marquee matchup of the series.

2. St. Louis at Milwaukee (Monday through Wednesday). The NL Central leaders still have 12 games left against each other, beginning Monday. The Cardinals had a busy deadline, acquiring Edwin Jackson and Rafael Furcal, while the Brewers must move forward without Rickie Weeks. This series is in Milwaukee, where the Brewers have the best home record in baseball at 39-14.

3. Cleveland at Boston (Monday through Thursday). It's a huge week for the Indians as they travel to Boston and then Texas. Cleveland was 32-20 through May, but went 10-17 in June and 11-15 in July, getting outscored by 50 runs over those two months. The AL Central remains wide open, but a bad week could create a hole too big to dig out of. The offense needs to start producing: It's hitting .214/.284/.340 since the All-Star break. Ubaldo Jimenez would make his regular turn on Thursday, but that's Justin Masterson's scheduled day, so I assume he'll make his Cleveland debut on Wednesday (he pitched just one inning on Saturday) or Friday.

Also: Texas at Detroit (Monday-Thursday), Yankees at White (Monday-Thursday), Philadelphia at San Francisco (Thursday-Sunday), Yankees at Boston (Friday-Sunday),

PITCHING MATCHUP OF THE WEEK

Saturday: Cole Hamels (12-6, 2.61) vs. Matt Cain (9-6, 2.91), Phillies at Giants

Hamels is having a Cy Young-caliber season, holding opponents to a lower batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage than Roy Halladay. Cain and Hamels met in Game 3 of the NLCS last year when Cain allowed two hits in seven scoreless innings of a 3-0 shutout for the Giants, and then again last week when Cain again outdueled Hamels, winning 2-1.

THREE STRIKES

1. The Justin Verlander-Jered Weaver Cy Young showdown certainly lived up to the billing, with Verlander taking a no-hitter into the eighth inning. His own throwing error leading off the inning may have prevented the no-no as Maicer Izturis singled with two outs to break it up. Weaver was strong, but allowed home runs to Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen. Weaver still hasn't allowed more than four runs in a game all season.

2. Fun to see the Cardinals fans give new shortstop Rafael Furcal a huge ovation when he pinch-hit Sunday night against the Cubs. While the Pence and Bourn trades grabbed a lot of the attention, the upgrade from Ryan Theriot to Rafael Furcal could be the biggest of the deadline. Theriot wasn't doing much at the plate and lacks the range and arm strength to be much more than replacement-level at shortstop. Of course, Furcal hasn't hit in limited duty with the Dodgers, including just .183 since coming off the DL on July 3, but if he produces like last season (.300/.366/.460), it's a great pickup for St. Louis.

3. Derrek Lee isn't have a great season for the Orioles -- .246/.302/.404. But that's better than what the Pirates were getting from Lyle Overbay (.227/.301/.342). Lee may also hit better moving back to the NL, where he hit .260/.347/.428 a year ago. It's a no-lose risk for the Pirates, as they gave up Aaron Baker, a 23-year-old first baseman who is still in Class A. Similar to Furcal, it's not as sexy as the Pence pickup, but the production the Pirates were getting from first base was so poor that Lee has a chance to be a significant upgrade.


RANT OF THE WEEK
Remember when everyone was griping about declining attendance early in the season? According to Baseball-Reference, that difference was down to only 42 fewer fans per game compared to this time last year (entering Sunday). And that's despite the Dodgers being down more than 8,000 fans per game. Now that the NFL is back in action -- you'd have thought we actually missed an important time of the season from the reaction -- the pundits will get back to kneeing at the altar of the NFL and ripping baseball. Major League Baseball is averaging more than 30,000 fans per game. Fourteen teams -- nearly half the league -- are within five games of first place or the wild-card lead. Small-market teams like Cleveland and Pittsburgh are competing. Big-market teams like the Dodgers, Cubs, Mets and Astros are out of it. Baseball is in trouble? Please.

Baseball is doing just fine.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Yes, this is another article about the sorry state of offense in 2011. Scoring is down a fifth of a run per team from 2010, a "year of the pitcher." It's down four-tenths of a run from 2009, six-tenths of a run if you want to reach back to 2006. We've also heard about how power is a big part of this "problem," as MLB-wide isolated power is down 20-25 points from 2006. But we're not talking about something else that seems to have gone missing: leadoff hitters who are quality table-setters.

We'll get into the data up front and then start seeing if we can parse what it might mean. First, there's the simple fact that OBPs for leadoff hitters are down. Last year's MLB-wide leadoff man OBP of .329 was the lowest we've seen in a full season since 1982, when it was also .329. It hadn't been lower than .329 since 1978, when the leadoff OBP was .323. From 1993-2010, the American League’s leadoff OBP of .330 was its worst, the NL’s .328 its second-worst. Keep in mind, leadoff OBP didn’t disappear in a puff of PED ban enforcement. As the first chart reflects, leadoff OBPs weren’t just stable after 2006, they went up. The AL’s 2009 leadoff OBP of .355 was its highest since 1996. On-base percentage for leadoff men was back up where it had been in the offensive onslaught of the late '90s… until last year.

So, a low-water mark was set in 2010, the worst leadoff OBP in 32 seasons … until this spring's action. In 2011, leadoff hitters have managed to get on base at a .325 clip. It’s especially bad in the American League, where leadoff men were eking out a .312 OBP through Thursday’s action. More than a quarter of the way in, we’re still waiting for both leagues to flip the ignition, but without any ignitors, let alone the original Paul Molitor, how is that supposed to happen?

Naturally, the first question to ask is why? Looking at walk rates for leadoff hitters in the second table, we’ve obviously lost some of what we took for granted -- hitters aren’t managing that walk once every 10 times up, a pace you might once have accepted as the basic standard. We’re not at the bottom of a trough, but the rate is back down where things were earlier in the Aughties, and that’s sub-good.

Some of that is a matter of the selection of leadoff likelies available to their teams: Jacoby Ellsbury is not a big-time walking man, for example, and wishing he was won’t make it so, but it doesn't make him ineffective. However, in a league and time where Rickey Henderson is still retired, finding people who can draw ball four hasn’t exactly been easy, which is probably why Juan Pierre or even Scott Podsednik keep getting opportunities. Some of it can also be institutional -- last year, the Rays came up with a perfectly functional creative adaptation, moving John Jaso and B.J. Upton into and out of the role as Joe Maddon played matchups. But this year they got carried away with the Sam Fuld phenomenon, only to learn what they already knew from his projections, which is that for a leadoff hitter he makes a heck of a defensive replacement.

Admittedly, when we think about leadoff hitters, it's easy to stick with happier memories, of the guys who are or were truly great at it: Rickey and Tim Raines in the '80s for example, or Ichiro for the past decade. You can take things down a notch and think fondly of Ray Durham or Tony Phillips, or from the current generation of players get sentimental about guys like Brian Roberts and Chone Figgins. And from any of these guys, you generally knew what to expect: OBPs that were .350 or higher, plenty of walks, and stolen-base totals in the 20-50 range.

But even then, there were always the other guys, the way the other half lived with their leadoff options, which pulled leadoff OBPs down around .333 year after year. If you were around in 1981, you had a rare opportunity to see one of the worst leadoff hitters of all time in action, achieving what would be, even by his standards, a career lowlight. Alfredo Griffin posted a .236 OBP leading off for the Blue Jays for the bulk of a season that was blighted by a strike. It's a mark for single-season leadoff putrescence that hasn't been underwhelmed in the 30 years since.

We can get into origin myths if you like, and ask where the great leadoff men came from and now, where they went, and whether or not we're bereft of truly elite leadoff men in this particular generation of players -- beyond admirable dinosaurs like Ichiro, of course. I wonder if we aren’t just stuck in the Michael Bourn generation. That might not seem entirely fair to Bourn, because he's one of the better leadoff hitters by today’s standards. He has posted OBPs better than league average in 2009 and 2010, after all. He's off to a slow start this season, but at least he's reliably within spitting distance of walking once every ten times and he runs well. That might represent a new, lower standard of what will do, but perhaps this isn't a burden to be Bourn, but a reflection of a changed game. Bourn makes an appropriate symbol for a time when teams are getting used to living with less offense.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

Joe Janish over at Red Leg Nation did a good job compiling the ZiPS Projections by Dan Szymborski to figure out the projected NL Central standings for 2011. I'm not going to give you a homerific projection of the Astros' season. I've got a pretty good record of being excessively critical of the Astros, and I'm certainly not turning around on that to say they're going to the World Series or anything absurd like that.

But don't you have to question the methodology of anything that places pretty much any team behind the Pirates?

The pessimist in me is perfectly willing to buy Szymborski's breakdown that compares the Astros to the Orioles in the way they keep getting just enough wins to convince management that the team doesn't need to go in a drastic new position. He's right that it's a slow downward spiral and I've been saying as much for years.

But, even granting that it is true, there are a number of reasons to think the Astros will not finish behind the Pirates.

First of all, the Astros have history on their side. In 17 years of sharing the division, the Astros have never finished behind the Pirates. They have had some scares in recent years, but the Astros never finished last in the division and have never finished behind the Pirates. History can change at any moment and that's the beauty of sports, but I'm looking at a Pirates team whose best full-time starter (Ross Ohlendorf) posted a 4.01 ERA last year, and I'm not seeing any reason to think the pattern of the Astros beating out the Pirates is going to change this year.

Secondly, the Astros' offense should get better this year. Nobody's going to confuse them with the 1927 Yankees or even the 2004 Astros, but there's plenty of reason to think the Astros will be better with the bats in 2011. They added Bill Hall and Clint Barmes. Chris Johnson will probably take a step back from his surprising rookie campaign, but there's no reason to think that Brett Wallace and Jason Castro won't see improvement, and no reason to think that Carlos Lee and Michael Bourn can't rebound and hit more like they did in 2009. They were a team in flux last year, and even with their complete offensive futility, I'll let you take a stab at one of the two teams that finished behind the Astros in virtually every offensive category. Did you guess? Yeah … it was the Pirates.

Thirdly, the Astros have pitching. You can knock their offense from here to October, and maybe their pitching even overperformed a little bit last year with a resurgent season from Brett Myers. But Myers, Wandy Rodriguez and J.A. Happ lead a solid rotation (3.30 ERA last year for those three) and the bullpen is coming together with great young guys like Fernando Abad, Wilton Lopez and Mark Melancon, with Brandon Lyon anchoring the closer's spot. Again, nothing that will compete for the World Series, but certainly good enough to finish ahead of the Pirates and maybe even enough to surprise other NL opponents.

I don't write this to proclaim the virtues of a team that might be just this much better than the lowly Pirates. I write it to say that this statistical finding doesn't pass the smell test. I'm sure that Dan Szymborski has put a lot of thought and work into his equations, but when those equations come out with the standings shown by Red Leg Nation, it might be an invitation back to the drawing board. Or, at the very least, a reminder that all the stats in the world will never tell us what we often know just by looking at what's in front of us.

Austin Swafford writes Austin's Astros 290 Blog, a blog about the Houston Astros. You can follow him on Twitter.

Worst record in the National League? Houston. And now they're going to lose their only player with more than two steals:

Houston Astros outfielder Michael Bourn has been suspended two games for making contact with umpire Alfonso Marquez during a game against the San Diego Padres.

Major League Baseball made the announcement Tuesday. Bourn also was fined an undisclosed amount for his actions during the 2-1 loss Saturday.

Bourn thought he beat out a bouncer leading off the ninth inning, but first base umpire Marquez called him out. Bourn ripped off his helmet and Marquez ejected the center fielder.

It wasn't a great deal of contact ... but it was contact, and that can't be tolerated.

First Bourn ripped off his helmet, but he got ejected after punching the air and (presumably) dropping some verbal bombs (video here.

You can't blame him for being frustrated. His team's struggling, and in the ninth inning of a 2-1 game he came oh-so-close to doing exactly what his team needed.

What's most interesting about the whole sequence is that while Bourn looked safe (or maybe tied, which is the same thing) with the naked eye, the replay suggests that Marquez got the call right.

So Bourn was wrong twice; he was wrong for bumping the ump, and he was wrong about the call. Two games seems a small price to pay.

Nevertheless, he has appealed the suspension. Because, you know, it wasn't fair.

In case you missed it, Jacoby Ellsbury set a record the other night ...

Ellsbury also led off the bottom of the first inning with a ground-rule double and then stole third to break Tommy Harper's franchise record of 54, set in 1973. Ellsbury, who stole 50 bases last year, has 114 stolen bases in 296 major league games -- not counting the base he stole in the 2007 World Series that earned everyone in the United States a free taco.

"It's pretty exciting to think about, with all the great Red Sox players that have played before me," said Ellsbury, who asked for the base but got the sense something might be planned. "The big thing with this club is, if you steal you have to succeed at a high rate. As long as they trust you to run, you'd better steal at a high rate."

Golly, having to succeed at a high rate: what a concept!

Indeed, since 2005 the Red Sox have ranked second, ninth, first, second, and sixth in the league in stolen-base percentage (and it's worth noting that there's usually little difference between second and sixth). Anyway, I got to wondering if any other team's stolen-base record is threatened, or might be threatened by any players currently active. So, with (as usual) the help of Baseball-Reference.com, I made a list of every franchise's record-holder so see what I could see.

A few highlights:

• Surprisingly (to me, anyway), the Expos/Nationals' record is not held by Tim Raines. He did steal 90 bases in 1983, but Ron LeFlore stole 97 in 1980.

• Before Ellsbury broke Tommy Harper's record, he was one of only two players to hold two franchise records: the Red Sox' and the Pilots/Brewers' (with 73 steals for the Pilots in '69, their only year of existence).

• The other, of course, is Rickey Henderson, who's not just a two-franchise record-holder; he owns the top three marks for both the Athletics and the Yankees.

• Maury Wills leads the Dodgers with 104 steals (in 1962), and his son Bump leads the Rangers with exactly half as many (in 1978).

• Carl Crawford's got the top six steal-seasons in Rays "history" and is probably going to break his old record (59) next month.

• Would you believe that Lou Brock isn't the Cardinals' record-holder? It's true: In 1887, Arlie Latham -- "the Freshest Man on Earth" -- was credited with 129 steals, 11 more than Brock's best. But the rules were funny in 1887, which is why I've mostly ignored anything before 1901.

• With that in mind, the longest-standing record is that of Frank Chance, who stole 67 bases for the Cubs in 1903.

Which brings me to the point of this little study.

The easiest targets are those of the Rangers (Bump Wills), the Orioles (57, Luis Aparicio in 1964), the Mariners (Harold Reynolds, 60 in 1987), the Blue Jays (60, Dave Collins in 1984), the Giants (62, George Burns in 1914), the Marlins (65, Juan Pierre in 2003) and the Astros (65, Gerald Young in 1988). If you don't think the New York Giants should count, then the Giants' record is just 58, set by Billy North in 1979.

Are any of the current records in danger? Carl Crawford aside, no. Hanley Ramirez could probably challenge Juan Pierre, but he's got more important things on his mind. The only candidate I see is Houston's Michael Bourn, who might approach 60 steals this season and might someday challenge the record if he keeps getting on base more than 35 percent of the time.

Baseball Tonight reviews the top defensive plays from Sunday.