SweetSpot: Miguel Cabrera

video Miguel Cabrera leads the American League in batting average (.382) and RBIs (37) as he tries to go for another Triple Crown. It seems unfair to even suggest that would be possible, but if he goes on a home run tear at some point, I wouldn't put it past him.

So let's talk 10 things about Miggy as he lights up scoreboards across the country.

1. How awesome would three batting titles in a row be?
By "batting title" we mean batting average, so if this isn't your cup of Earl Grey, skip to the next section. The following players have won three titles in a row: Tony Gwynn (1994-97), Tony Gwynn (1987-89), Wade Boggs (1985-88), Rod Carew (1972-75), Stan Musial (1950-52), Rogers Hornsby (1920-25), Ty Cobb (1917-19), Ty Cobb (1911-15), Ty Cobb (1907-09), Honus Wagner (1906-09) and Nap Lajoie (1901-04). Gwynn, Boggs, Carew and Musial were all left-handed batters, so the last right-handed batter to do it was Hornsby almost 90 years ago. The only right-handed batters since World War II to win at least three batting titles in their career are Bill Madlock and Roberto Clemente, who each won four. So, yes, pretty awesome.

2. Does he really have a shot at the single-season RBI record?
Not really. With 37 RBIs in 32 games, Cabrera is on pace for 187, four shy of Hack Wilson's record set with the Cubs in 1930. But it would take a Herculean effort to even approach Wilson's mark, set in an era of high batting averages and high on-base percentages. Since 1950, only nine times has a player driven in 150 runs, with Manny Ramirez's 165 in 1999 the most. The Tigers rank only 15th in OBP from the leadoff spot (.335) but first in OBP from the No. 2 slot (.419), so even if Austin Jackson starts getting on more, Torii Hunter will probably get on less.

As is, Cabrera is second in the majors (behind teammate Prince Fielder) for the most runners on base while batting and is hitting .533 with runners in scoring position. I mean, he's good, but I'm pretty sure he won't .533 with RISP all season. Wilson hit .356 while batting cleanup for the Cubs in 1930, but one big advantage compared to Cabrera was he hit 56 home runs, so he drove in himself a lot. Plus, he played on a team that scored 998 runs, so he had many more RBI opportunities than Cabrera likely will receive -- Cubs leadoff hitters had a .332 OBP in 1930, but the No. 2 guys had a .425 OBP and the No. 3 hitters were at .424. That's a lot of baserunners to knock in.

3. He is durable. That should help.
True. Wilson missed just one game in 1930, and Cabrera's most underrated asset is his durability. He may have a body by red meat, but check out his games played since his first full season: 160, 158, 158, 157, 160, 160, 150, 161, 161. The only prolonged time he's missed was the final week of 2010, when he sprained an ankle.

4. What makes him so scary right now?
For one thing, Cabrera has adapted his swing in recent seasons. Compare the hit charts below from 2009 versus 2012-13. Now, he was still plenty awesome in 2009, hitting .324 with 34 home runs, but nearly all his home runs were pulled. Now he's more willing to take the ball the other way -- but still has the power to hit it out. His line-drive percentage right now is 26 percent -- more than 4 percent higher than last year. It's possible he's still getting better at the plate.

Cabrera Hit Chart ESPN Stats & InformationMiguel Cabrera's home runs don't just go over the left-field fence anymore, as most did in 2009.
5. Does he have a weakness?
Believe it or not, Cabrera struggles with pitches "up" in the zone. He's hitting .200/.400/.200 this year against pitches classified as such (36 plate appearances); last year, he hit .208/.453/.429. The trouble with pitching up in the zone is that you're also more likely to walk him. And if you miss too low, you're right in his wheelhouse. And Cabrera doesn't miss those pitches.

6. Remember skinny Miggy?
Of course, Cabrera has been a devastating hitter for years, going back to his Marlins days. Cabrera made his debut with the Marlins on June 20, 2003, and was 0-for-4 when he stepped up in the bottom of the 11th against Tampa Bay's Al Levine with a runner on. Levine threw a first-pitch fastball, and Cabrera crushed the ball over the fence in center field. He might have been 40 pounds lighter than now, but he always had the raw power. He also knew how to hit. "They got me out the first four times, but I told myself they are throwing a lot of fastballs, so I am going to look for a first-pitch fastball," he said after that debut blast.

Cabrera played left field and batted eighth that game. By the World Series he was batting cleanup.

7. OK, where does Cabrera rank among all-time right-handed batters?
Right now he's playing his age-30 season. He has 327 home runs, which ranks 11th -- more than Willie Mays had through age 30 but fewer than Andruw Jones or Juan Gonzalez. He's fifth in RBIs, behind only Jimmie Foxx, Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols and Hank Aaron, and is a good bet to pass Aaron and maybe Pujols (70 behind).

8. Those are old-school stats. What about some of your fancy sabermetric stuff?
OK, let's look at OPS+ from Baseball-Reference.com -- a player's on-base plus slugging percentage, but adjusted for park and era. Cabrera doesn't fare quite as well there, with an OPS+ of 152, 16th-best since 1901, and behind Frank Thomas, Pujols, Jeff Bagwell, Ramirez and Mike Piazza, among more recent players (although better than A-Rod). Remember, the early part of Cabrera's career still came in the high-scoring period, which really didn't end until about 2008, when offensive numbers started dropping.

Using the wRC+ stat from FanGraphs, Cabrera ranks 19th among right-handed batters since 1901.

SportsNation

Who has been the AL MVP so far?

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Discuss (Total votes: 4,807)

This makes Cabrera elite, but not necessarily a more valuable hitter than others we've seen in the past two decades. He can't match the on-base percentage that Thomas (.443) or Pujols (.426) posted through age 30, for example. (Cabrera is at .396). Even compared to Ramirez, Miggy's career-best slugging percentages have been .622 and .606 while Manny had seasons of .697, .663, .647 and .609 through age 30, plus three more above .600 after turning 30.

9. Does he have a shot at Aaron's career RBI record?
Definitely possible. Cabrera stands at at 1,160; Aaron had 2,297, so he's 1,137 away. That's how amazing Aaron was: Cabrera has recorded 100-plus RBIs nine seasons in a row and is barely halfway to Aaron's total. You can do the math pretty easily: Cabrera needs to average 114 RBIs for 10 seasons to catch him. Including this year, that takes him through age 39. Like Aaron, he'll have to remain productive and durable until he reaches 40.

10. Does he win the MVP award again?
Well, the voters do love them some RBIs, so I'd have to say he's the favorite right now.

Marlins remain ugly stain on MLB landscape

April, 5, 2013
Apr 5
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Jose Reyes and Jeffrey LoriaAP Photo/LM OteroWould you want to play baseball for this man? Jose Reyes made that mistake.
Twenty years into their history, and there's still something fishy about the Marlins. I don't just say that to be glib. Let's start with a thought exercise. If you were a fan of a team, would you make this deal with the devil: You get 18 years of varying degrees of embarrassment, carpetbagger robbery of the public till to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars, a ballpark that looks like it had the Jetsons and Playskool involved as consulting architects ... and two World Series titles?

They say flags fly forever, and it's clear that some people will pay any price to make it so. But has it been worth it, for Marlins fans? I'm sure there are fans in Miami who remember being excited about Cuba's Orestes Destrade coming back from the Japanese leagues to be an original Marlin. I'm sure there are folks who were there to see Charlie Hough beat Orel Hershiser on that first Opening Day. There's no shame in admitting to that.

But after everything that has happened since, can anyone even properly consider themselves a Marlins fan? Is there anyone who has ridden this roller coaster through every up and down, through every fire sale? Would you blame them if the answer was a universal "no?"

The Marlins have been baseball's ultimate fickle rich dude play-thing franchise, as much a dumping ground for one Bud Selig-approved plutocrat after another. First they were the beneficiary of Wayne Huizenga's bottomless garbage pit of cash to finance their first quick World Series title in 1997, then the victim of the trash king's instant disinterest upon acquiring his ring. In and out came all sorts of famous and expensive people to make it so: Kevin Brown, Bobby Bonilla, Gary Sheffield, Moises Alou, the sort of high-profile turnover that makes Taylor Swift's dating life seem sedate by comparison.

Financier John Henry took over in '99, marking time as the franchise caretaker at the same time that Jeffrey Loria spent just $12 million to get in on the Expos and helping baseball drive out the local Montreal ownership stake. Three years later, with big-ledger legerdemain that only an investment banker could love, Loria sells the Expos to baseball, buys the Marlins with that money plus an interest-free loan from the game, and Henry uses that money to help finance the second-largest (and yet winning) offer to buy the Red Sox from the Yawkey Trust.

Never let it be said shenanigans don't pay. A season later, Loria has a ring as the Marlins raise their second flag in just their 11th year of existence. (A year after that, Henry got a ring, too.) For whatever reason, it seems like people are more ready to remember the Evil Empire Yankees losing to the 2001 Diamondbacks than they are to recall the big moments of the Marlins' even more surprising win.

That's a shame, because once you get past the heartburn of the finance pages, the 2003 champs were a fun team to follow. Derrek Lee, Ivan Rodriguez and Mike Lowell were all at the top of their games, Miggy was just breaking in, and the Marlins benefited from one of the best in-season bullpen fixer-upper jobs pulled off by GM Larry Beinfest and ageless skipper Jack McKeon in his last dugout incarnation. From Pudge's back-breaking game-winning hit in Game 3 of the NLDS against the Giants, the Bartman game against the Cubs in the NLCS, or Josh Beckett, Brad Penny and Carl Pavano shutting down the Yankees in the World Series, it was the stuff of legend that creates fans for life.

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Marlins park
Tom DiPace/MLB Photos/Getty ImagesDon't expect any crowds this big at Marlins Park in 2013.
For most franchises, but not for the Marlins. Because that's the funny thing about the Fish: Even with the flags, even with the opportunity to start from scratch so many times during their brief history, nobody's going to try copying them, let alone love them. While the farm system cranked out an all-time great in Miguel Cabrera and a few other top-tier talents in Josh Johnson, Adrian Gonzalez (dealt as a 21-year-old farmhand in 2003 as part of a package for Ugueth Urbina) and Giancarlo Stanton, it has produced little else.

Most of the young prospects the Marlins have succeeded with over time has been the reward reaped from the fire sales they seem to hold with the acrid monotony of slash-and-burn agriculture. Eventually everything of value gets exchanged to provide the next crop of twentysomethings under club control until arbitration or the free agency clock puts them somewhere else, too. The churn at the big-league levels hasn't just been a product of economic necessity, it has had to stand in for a farm system that hasn't produced enough talent. It's a formula that puts Justin Ruggiano on the field as one of your better players.

Try thinking of the all-time great Marlins, if you dare, and mostly you get into a name-check litany of other people's prospects who put in their time in teal or tropical rainbow before departing. Hello and goodbye, Hanley Ramirez, or Anibal Sanchez. It's like the franchise that hasn't outgrown the founding lesson of its own expansion draft: Covet other people's goodies, and try to get them rather than come up with any of your own. Jeff Conine? He's probably still the only legit contender for the title of Mr. Marlin, assuming anyone wants to wear it.

Josh Johnson is atop the franchise's all-time mark for pitching WAR with 25.3. He's already an ex-Marlin after last November's humiliating trade with the Blue Jays. Their most productive homegrown position player in terms of career WAR is Luis Castillo, followed by Cabrera; third is Stanton after less than three full seasons in the majors.

It remains to be seen if Loria's charmed life as a baseball owner will last. Between the $500 million taxpayers had to shell out for his unique new venue -- which might balloon to $800 or $900 million if Neil deMause of FieldofSchemes.com is right, as he usually is -- the resulting scandal has left political careers broken and a municipality broke. It remains to be seen what will come of the SEC investigation over the depths of Loria's and baseball's involvement in what looks like an ugly pay-to-play situation.

Beyond that, much like Charlie Finley of the '70s Oakland A's dynasty before him, Loria is the owner-operator who's easy to hate, pinching pennies while alienating managers and players and fans. Loria is the man who ran off Joe Girardi after the rookie skipper earned Manager of the Year, not unlike Finley had to see Dick Williams scram scant minutes after winning the 1973 World Series.

I wouldn't doubt for a moment that some of the visceral loathing Loria seems to inspire among fans is also fueled by thoroughgoing jealousy. And why not? There's plenty to be jealous of. The man owns a major league team. In Miami. And his team won a World Series.

Which is why the Marlins might be the ultimate representation of the downside of the motto of the late Al Davis, "Just win, baby." Not because the Marlins haven't won -- they have -- or that they just win -- they don't. The problem is that the emphasis in their case is probably on the word "just": They just won. Because beyond those two titles, what have the Marlins given baseball fans in Miami? Just that. And 20 years in, maybe that's a deal with the devil that no fan would make.


Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.
Mike Trout and Miguel CabreraGetty ImagesThe SweetSpot bloggers predict another 1-2 MVP finish for Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera in 2013.


Yes, it's the time of the year ... awards predictions! Here are the collective thoughts of the writers from across the SweetSpot network.

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER
Last year, the SweetSpot bloggers correctly picked Miguel Cabrera as the AL MVP winner. How quickly we fall in love with the new kid on the block! I'm not surprised that Mike Trout is the MVP favorite by the SweetSpot bloggers -- but I am surprised by his runaway vote total, as he collected 33 of the 47 first-place votes (including mine). If wisdom of the crowds proves true, it should be a landslide MVP result for Trout.

Amazingly, Cabrera only received two first-place votes (remember, he ranked ahead of Trout in our recent BBTN500 voting). This probably reflects the difference in the mind-set between the bloggers -- who are going to pay more attention to advanced metrics like WAR -- and the more conventional group of analysts (writers, announcers, former players) who voted in the BBTN500.

The network bloggers must have high hopes for the Rays since Evan Longoria ranked third in the balloting. And maybe the Yankees won't collapse just yet: Robinson Cano finished fourth in the balloting.

Points on a 14-9-8-7-6 basis.

1. Mike Trout, 574 points (33 first-place votes)
2. Miguel Cabrera, 374 points (2)
3. Evan Longoria, 268 points (3)
4. Robinson Cano, 238 points (4)
5. Adrian Beltre, 101 points (1)
6. Yoenis Cespedes, 92 points (0)
7. Jose Bautista, 85 points (2)
8. Prince Fielder, 70 points (1)
9. Albert Pujols, 62 points (1)
10. Jose Reyes, 43 points (0)

Others -- Josh Hamilton (41 points), Dustin Pedroia (34), Joe Mauer (21), Alex Gordon (18), Matt Wieters (9), Adam Jones (7), Curtis Granderson (7), Edwin Encarnacion (6), Carlos Santana (6), Ian Kinsler (6), Jacoby Ellsbury (6)

CY YOUNG

No surprise here: Justin Verlander collected 28 first-place votes to easily outdistance last season's Cy Young winner, David Price. Keep an eye on Yu Darvish: He finished ahead of Felix Hernandez in the voting. Reigning NL CY Young winner R.A. Dickey is now with Toronto and he collected just one first-place vote.

Points on a 7-4-3 basis.

1. Justin Verlander, 258 points (28 first-place votes)
2. David Price, 129 points (4)
3. Yu Darvish, 81 points (5)
4. Felix Hernandez, 70 points (5)
5. Jered Weaver, 34 points (3)
6. R.A. Dickey, 15 points (1)

Others -- Chris Sale (9 points), CC Sabathia (8), Max Scherzer (6), Josh Johnson (6), Jarrod Parker (6), Jon Lester (6), Doug Fister (3), Matt Moore (3), Jake Peavy (3)

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

The rookie race is even more wide open, since most of the top rookie prospects will begin the year in the minors, including Tampa Bay outfielder Wil Myers, who led our balloting with 17 first-place votes. Outfielders Aaron Hicks of the Twins and Jackie Bradley of the Red Sox will break camp with their big league teams, and that helped them finish second and third in the voting.

Points on a 5-3-1 basis.

1. Wil Myers, 111 points (17 first-place votes)
2. Aaron Hicks, 71 points (8)
3. Jackie Bradley, 65 points (8)
4. Jurickson Profar, 46 points (4)
5. Dylan Bundy, 29 points (4)
6. Brandon Maurer, 24 points (2)
7. Trevor Bauer, 21 points (1)
8. Dan Straily, 12 points (1)

Others -- Bruce Rondon (6 points), Mike Olt (5), Mike Zunino (4), Chris Archer (3), Avisail Garcia (1), Conor Gillaspie (1), Nick Tepesch (1), Kevin Gausman (1)
No, the World Baseball Classic isn't the World Series or the World Cup, and it doesn't really prove which country has the best baseball talent. But it's a fun event, the players participating want to win, and there are fans across the globe -- mostly outside of the United States -- who care passionately about the results.

Is the event perfect? Of course not. Thursday's much-anticipated Pool C game between Venezuela and the Dominican Republic in Puerto Rico should have featured Felix Hernandez starting against Johnny Cueto instead of Anibal Sanchez against Edinson Volquez, but I didn't have a problem getting pumped up to watch a Dominican lineup that featured Jose Reyes, Robinson Cano, Edwin Encarnacion, Hanley Ramirez, Nelson Cruz and Carlos Santana, and a Venezuelan lineup that went nine deep with the likes of Elvis Andrus, Asdrubal Cabrera, Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Gonzalez, Pablo Sandoval, Miguel Montero and Martin Prado.

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Robinson Cano
Al Bello/Getty ImagesRobinson Cano drove in three of the Dominican's nine runs in the opener against Venezuela.
Managers Tony Pena of the Dominican and Luis Sojo of Venezuela were forced to scramble when a first-inning rain delay led to the early exits of Volquez and Sanchez. But the Dominican had already jumped on Sanchez for three first-inning runs -- Cano doubled in two -- and a contingent of Dominican relievers, some minor league no-names and some major leaguers with big fastballs held the explosive Venezuelans to just six hits in a 9-3 victory. The game slogged along, reminiscent of a Red Sox-Yankees affair from the mid-2000s, but that just showed what the game means to the players: They weren't going through the motions like you might see in a spring-training game in Arizona in early March.

The win puts the Dominicans in the driver's seat to win Pool C and help escape the embarrassment of 2009, when they lost twice to the Netherlands in pool play and failed to advance (scoring just three runs in those two games despite a lineup that included Cano, Reyes, Ramirez, David Ortiz and Miguel Tejada). Venezuela entered the tournament as a favorite alongside the U.S. Even minus Hernandez, it seemed to have more pitching depth than the Dominican, especially among the starters.

But in pool play, it's all about bullpen depth. Pitchers are limited to 65 pitches per outing and if they throw at least 30, they can't pitch the following day. If you pitch two days in a row, you can't pitch a third day in a row. But the Dominican bullpen rolled out Royals reliever Kelvin Herrera, he of the average fastball velocity of 97 mph last year, veteran Octavio Dotel, Pedro Strop of the Orioles and Rays closer Fernando Rodney. Strop had the key appearance on Thursday, pitching 1.2 hitless innings in the middle of the game when the score was 5-3. Command has always been the issue for Strop, but he threw an efficient 20 pitches, 14 for strikes. With a day off on Friday, Pena had no reservations about running all his relievers out there.

The Dominicans can attack you in different ways. They have the speed of Reyes, Erick Aybar and Alejandro De Aza; the power of Cano and Encarnacion; the patience of Santana, who drew four walks on Thursday. The team is also hoping to add Adrian Beltre in the second round. With that lineup and that crew of hard-throwing relievers, the Dominicans certainly have the ability to win it all.

The U.S. is still the favorite on paper (it plays its opener on Friday against Mexico). Even without starters Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw, it has the most pitching depth. After Volquez, the Dominicans have to rely on guys such as Wandy Rodriguez and probably Samuel Deduno to start.

And don't sleep on Venezuela. Its Saturday game against Puerto Rico likely becomes the key game now in Pool C. I wouldn't bet against a lineup where Marco Scutaro is batting ninth.
2012 in review
Record: 88-74 (88-74 Pythagorean)
726 runs scored (6th in American League)
670 runs allowed (5th in AL)

Big Offseason Moves
Re-signed Anibal Sanchez. Signed Torii Hunter. Lost Jose Valverde and Delmon Young.

It has been a relatively quiet offseason for general manager Dave Dombrowski, but his two major signings made perfect sense. Bringing back Sanchez gives the team another reliable innings-eater in the middle of the rotation, even if he's not quite as good as his three terrific starts in the postseason, when he posted a 1.77 ERA.

Snapping up Hunter for two years and $26 million was one of the sleeper free-agent signings of the winter. While the Tigers ranked 25th in the majors with minus-32 defensive runs saved, the biggest defensive liability wasn't Miguel Cabrera at third base or Prince Fielder at first base, but the collection of right fielders (primarily Brennan Boesch). Hunter will be a clear defensive upgrade there, and while he won't hit .313 again (he'd never hit .300 before 2012), he'll provide more offense than the .235/.285/.357 line the Tigers got from right field in 2012 (the lowest OPS in the AL).

Position Players

The return of Victor Martinez is addition by subtraction, because it means the departure of Young and his .296 on-base percentage. Martinez is a career .303 hitter, but he is 34 and returning from missing an entire season following knee surgery.

Certainly, any lineup with Cabrera and Fielder is going to score runs; it's knowing you can build around two of the most durable players in the league (they missed only one game between them last year). Despite their presence, the Tigers ranked just 10th in the AL in home runs and they'll remain one of the slowest teams in the league. But if Martinez hits and Alex Avila hits like he did in 2011, there is potential for more runs here.

Pitching Staff

They have the best pitcher in baseball in Justin Verlander and follow that up with the underrated Doug Fister (how did the Mariners trade this guy?), Max Scherzer (fourth-best ERA in the AL in the second half) and Sanchez. Drew Smyly is one of breakout candidates for 2013, and clearly the Tigers believe so as well if the trade rumors involving Rick Porcello are true.

The question mark: Who closes? Following Valverde's meltdown in the playoffs, Phil Coke handled the position just fine, but his 4.05 career ERA and ugly .854 OPS allowed in 2012 have led to speculation that hard-throwing rookie Bruce Rondon -- with no major league experience -- will be given the chance to close. I have my doubts about that, considering Rondon has fewer than 30 innings above Class A and enough command issues (4.4 walks per nine in the minors) that Jim Leyland might want to see the kid throw some strikes before handing him the ninth. The closer issue moves the overall grade of the staff down a notch.

Heat Map to Watch
Miguel Cabrera's 44 home runs was one element of the Triple Crown. Impressively, he hit 40 of those off right-handed pitchers -- and you can see from the heat map Cabrera's ability to turn on inside pitches.

Miguel CabreraESPN Stats & InformationMiguel Cabrera hit 44 of Detroit's 163 home runs in 2012 -- 40 off right-handers.
Overall grade

SportsNation

How many games will the Tigers win?

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Despite their World Series appearance a year ago, the Tigers were hardly a super team, top-heavy around the big three of Verlander, Cabrera and Fielder. Winning 88 games in the weak AL Central doesn't necessarily inspire a lot of confidence, but I have a feeling the rotation will be stronger after Fister and Scherzer had strong second halves, a full season of Sanchez and the full-time addition of Smyly. Hunter is big upgrade in right field as well. The Tigers will be heavy favorites once again to win the division.

Talent starting to stack up at third base

January, 11, 2013
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Something strange happened in 2011, and something equally strange happened in 2012. In 2011, exactly zero third basemen posted a wRC+ above 140, after four consecutive seasons in which at least three third basemen accomplished that feat. (wRC+ compares a player's weighted on-base average to the league average and adjusts for league and park factors.) In 2012, five third basemen accomplished the feat, the most since 1976, when Mike Schmidt, Bill Madlock, George Brett, Ron Cey and Pete Rose each crossed the threshold.

It was certainly interesting timing for third base to become flush with talent, but the position has seen the most variance in production since the beginning of the millennium. Third basemen's collective wOBA improved over 3.2 percent over 2011, one of only six instances in which a position saw an improvement greater than or equal to two percent in any season. Third base has seen three of those six instances.

The super-productive third basemen in 2012 were Miguel Cabrera (166), Chase Headley (145), Aramis Ramirez (142), Adrian Beltre (140) and David Wright (140).

For Cabrera, it was business-as-usual for the eventual 2012 AL MVP, as he finished with a 140 or better wRC+ for the fourth consecutive season and seventh time overall.

Ramirez continues to age like fine wine. Aside from a down year in 2010, he has consistently been one of the best-hitting third basemen since 2004.

Beltre ever so slightly outproduced then-teammate Josh Hamilton on the offensive side of things, leading in wOBA .388 to .387. Since leaving Seattle after the 2009 season, few have been able to match Beltre's production at the hot corner.

Wright had a bounce-back year, returning from .338 to .376 in wOBA and 1.9 to 7.8 in Wins Above Replacement, according to FanGraphs.

In total, the right tail of the proverbial Bell Curve for third basemen last year was a perfect storm of veteran players refusing to decline due to age or injury concerns as most of their demographic tend to do, once-great stars returning to form, and young players hitting their stride (David Freese, not to be forgotten, was not too far off the mark with a 132 wRC+, by the way).

While historically unlikely we'd see such an elite class of third basemen again, there are a few more third basemen who could accomplish the feat even as others drop off, such as Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, Brett Lawrie and Freese. Throw in Manny Machado, who may eventually become a star shortstop for the Orioles, but for now will play third base with J.J. Hardy manning shortstop. Mike Moustakas and Kyle Seager are two other young third basemen on the rise. Compared to where we were just a couple years ago, when Michael Young, Kevin Youkilis and Mark Reynolds were among the bigger bats at the position, we will be treated to a surfeit of talent going into 2013.

Chase Headley is perhaps the most interesting of them all, though. Not yet 29, Headley led the National League in RBIs, hit 31 home runs and stole 17 bases. The 30 HR/15 SB feat has only been accomplished 20 times in baseball history by a third baseman; before Headley, Reynolds did the deed for the Arizona Diamondbacks back in 2009. Headley also draws walks (12 percent walk rate last year), doesn't strike out too much (22.5 percent), and makes good contact (.339 career BABIP). All of this is crucial to his success in a ballpark which favors pitchers due to its homer-deflating dimensions.

More than one out of every five fly balls Headley hit last season was a home run, more than double his career average of percent and the NL average 11 percent. Crossing the 20 percent HR/FB threshold puts him in rarefied air, with elite power hitters such as Giancarlo Stanton, Prince Fielder and Matt Kemp. If Headley's sudden power surge is legitimate, he should once again find himself near the top of a stocked class of third basemen in 2013.

Bill Baer runs the Phillies blog Crashburn Alley. You can follow him on Twitter @CrashburnAlley.

Power rankings: All 30 teams!

December, 22, 2012
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Last weekend, I presented the top 10 teams in my personal power rankings. That was before the Blue Jays officially acquired R.A. Dickey, so I updated my top 10 after that trade, and, to spur on more debate, now present the rest of my rankings. Agree or disagree, but I do think this is the most parity we've seen in a long time. It's why the Orioles and A's were able to surprise this past season and why we will undoubtedly see another surprise team in 2013. It's a great time to be a baseball fan.

1. Nationals
Most talented rotation in the majors, deep lineup, depth. Re-signing Adam LaRoche to add another lefty power bat will help.

2. Reds
Superb rotation could be better if the Aroldis Chapman transition works, bullpen is deep enough to absorb his loss and Shin-Soo Choo provides a needed leadoff hitter.

3. Yankees
I think they can stretch things out more season with a deep rotation, excellent bullpen and power. Remember, they had the largest run differential in the American League last season.

4. Tigers
Deep rotation, great 1-2 punch with Miggy and Prince, and Torii Hunter and Victor Martinez should improve the lineup.

5. Braves
Left-handed power, power bullpen and a young team that could improve from last year's 94 wins.

6. Blue Jays
Addition of Dickey adds a needed No. 1 to a rotation that could be dominant if Josh Johnson and Brandon Morrow remain healthy.

7. A's
Young teams that show big improvement are usually for real, and this team has a solid rotation, a strong outfield and power arms in the bullpen.

8. Dodgers
Have to love the Clayton Kershaw-Zack Greinke combo and an offense with big upside if Matt Kemp and Adrian Gonzalez come close to 2011 levels.

9. Rangers
I think the rotation is playoff-caliber with Yu Darvish, Matt Harrison, Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando, Martin Perez and Colby Lewis.

SportsNation

Which of these five teams should be No. 1 right now?

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10. Cardinals
Have to replace Kyle Lohse, but they'll score plenty of runs as long as Carlos Beltran (36 years old in April) and Matt Holliday (33 in January) keep producing.

11. Rays
Still some holes in the lineup, and replacing James Shields' 220-plus innings won't be that easy, but underestimate the Rays at your own risk.

12. Angels
Oddsmaker Bovada.lv has the Angels with the second-best odds to win the World Series (behind the Blue Jays), but I see a rotation with a lot of question marks behind Jered Weaver, and Josh Hamilton only replaces Hunter, who was terrific in 2012.

13. Giants
I discussed my issues with the Giants here. I could be wrong, although our friends at Bovada only put the Giants tied for ninth in their World Series odds.

14. Diamondbacks
Their run differential wasn't much different than the Giants last year, and they've added Brandon McCarthy, infield depth and still have Justin Upton.

15. Phillies
I want to say we're all underestimating a team that includes Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, but then I see an outfield of Darin Ruf, Ben Revere and Domonic Brown, and an infield defense that includes Michael Young and Ryan Howard and 30-somethings Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley.

16. Brewers
They can score runs -- most in the National League last season -- and if the bullpen regroups after 2012's gruesome late-inning efforts, this team could surprise.

17. Red Sox
There will be no expectations after the disaster in 2012 (the franchise's worst record since 1965), but I see a big rebound coming.

18. Royals
I'll buy -- but I'm not buying a playoff spot. Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas have to take huge leaps forward ... or the Royals could be headed for another rebuild.

19. Orioles
Last season's 93-win playoff team provided a beautiful ride, but the Orioles haven't added that big bat they need.

20. Padres
Young team is moving in the right direction after winning 76 games in 2012. Can rotation improve to push Pads over .500?

21. Mariners
Mariners have pursued a big bat all offseason but were only able to pick up Kendrys Morales, and he cost them Jason Vargas, opening up a 200-inning hole in the rotation. Looks like 2014 before Mariners can make a push in the tough AL West.

22. Pirates
Still no No. 1 or even No. 2 starter (sorry, A.J. Burnett is a No. 3 at best) and not enough support for Andrew McCutchen. One of these years, Pirates fans, one of these years.

23. White Sox
No A.J. Pierzynski, a declining Paul Konerko, good year/off year Alex Rios due for an off year. Then again, White Sox had a bigger run differential in 2012 than the Tigers.

24. Cubs
Rotation of Edwin Jackson, Jeff Samardzija, Travis Wood, Scott Baker and Scott Feldman could be competitive, but offense won't be.

25. Mets
At least Mets fans can dream of a future rotation that includes Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Jonathon Niese and Noah Syndergaard. Unfortunately, the 2013 version still includes Frank Francisco and a bunch of fourth outfielders.

26. Marlins
Giancarlo Stanton still makes this team worth watching on a daily basis.

27. Indians
Getting Trevor Bauer in the Choo deal added a much-needed starting pitcher prospect. Unfortunately, much of the rest of rotation remains suspect.

28. Twins
Kevin Correia, Vance Worley, Mike Pelfrey ... what, Rich Robertson and Sean Bergman weren't available?

29. Rockies
At least the Twins have a direction as they wait for young position players to reach the majors. I have no clue what the Rockies are doing, intend to do, want to do, wish to do or hope to achieve.

30. Astros
Welcome to the AL West, boys.

You've got mail -- the Bill James Handbook

November, 17, 2012
11/17/12
11:30
AM ET
Just like the regular season, the offseason has its rhythms. Free agents file, somebody signs early, guys get non-tendered, and the Hot Stove goes from its faint, rattling simmer to explosively boiling over without all that much warning. But as we watch, wait and learn what’s going to go down this winter, there’s one staple that more than a few of us enjoy every November: The new Bill James Handbook is out, on bookstore shelves or -- better yet -- sitting right here on my desk thanks to my friendly neighborhood postal worker.

As ever, it’s packed with information, starting with comprehensive breakdowns on Baseball Info Solutions’ Plus/Minus defensive metric. One thing that’s kind of cool are the breakdowns on every replay and the outcomes of each review, which is worth checking out on the granular level at the same time that it’s worth knowing we didn’t just see more replay last season, we saw records set for overturned calls and a rate of overturned calls.

I’m always partial to specific segments, pages I know I’ll refer to again and again in the months to come: Managers data, ballpark indices, or the breakdowns on all of the significant pitchers’ repertoires. Career targets remain handy if you want a quick reflection on Ichiro Suzuki’s shot at 3,000 hits (44 percent) or Miguel Cabrera’s shot at setting the career records for home runs, runs scored and hits. One recent addition I love is the decision to show collective team bullpen performance, including breakdowns of save opportunities by type. Admittedly, there are also sections I skip -- hello and goodbye, Win Shares and productive outs, but maybe those are your cup of tea.

But one thing that’s fun to find is the animating spirit that shows through time and again -- as when James breaks from noting Blake Beavan’s problems getting strikeouts to ask if you’ve noticed how imposing Beavan is on the mound. Sure, there’s a bunch of data, but the people who love this book happen to be people who watch a ton of baseball to boot, whatever Mitch Albom might say to the contrary.

And of course there are 2013 projections for hitters and pitchers, because yes, it isn’t too soon to talk about next season -- you know baseball’s year-’round by now, right?

As offseason items go, the Handbook might be easy to take for granted these days, because this marks the 24th edition. To put that into context, there were only a dozen Baseball Abstracts, counting the self-published ones. The Handbook’s annual release is much more of a seasonal ritual than finally finding the Abstract on store shelves in May -- May! -- ever was, let alone the childhood tedium of waiting out the release of the winter issue of Baseball Digest with all the bare-bones “back of the baseball card” data in it.

Given that the contents and similar evaluative stats and projections are freely available online, why get the book? Admittedly, I have more than a bit of nostalgia for the old medium, because the book deserves the compliment as the “the perfect technology”; it’s invariably easier and faster to flip around the contents without the vagaries of surfing speed to worry about.

But a copy of the Handbook is also worth having around because there will be times when it really is just better to turn off the monitor, walk away from the desk, and take some time to enjoy yourself mulling something like Jordany Valdespin’s pinch-hitting exploits while waiting for the next time you’ll get to hear the crack of a bat. Baseball may be year-’round, but baseball games, sadly, are not.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

The American League MVP debate was billed along the lines of new-school stathead nerds versus old-school traditionalists. Did you like Mike Trout's WAR or Miguel Cabrera's Triple Crown? Shake hands and let the brawling ensue.

I believed that was a little bit of a simplistic mindset. The MVP voting isn't so much about statistics and numbers as it is about storyline. After all, who votes on the award? Baseball writers. What do writers like? A good story. That's what made this debate one of the most heated in years: You had two compelling narratives, both historic in nature.

Trout's rookie season wasn't dominant just by rookie standards, but by any standard. His all-around brilliance at the plate, in the field and on the bases led to 10.7 Wins Above Replacement, the 13th-highest by any AL position player since 1900 and the third-highest in either league in the past 20 years (behind only two Barry Bonds seasons).

Cabrera, of course, became the first Triple Crown winner since 1967, hitting .330 with 44 home runs and 139 RBIs. Even if you haven't looked at RBIs since Bill James wrote his first "Baseball Abstract," it was an impressive achievement and easy story to pin a headline -- and MVP vote -- on.

In the end, it had to be that narrative that pushed Cabrera to a convincing win, as he received 22 of the 28 first-place votes.

After all, it couldn't be about numbers -- and by numbers, I mean those that help you win more baseball games than your opponents -- because if you dig into those numbers, it's not close. Trout wins in a landslide. Well, assuming the only numbers you pay attention to are those produced at the plate and not in the field or on the bases. (And even then, it's pretty close just on offense, especially when you adjust for things like park effects and Cabrera's 28 double plays.)

Maybe it was about winning. After all, since the wild-card era began in 1995, only six of 38 MVP winners have come from non-playoff teams. Cabrera's Tigers made the playoffs and Trout's Angels didn't. On the MLB Network's broadcast, writer Tom Verducci said that Trout was the better player but Cabrera should win the MVP award, because it shows "how much winning still means." I mean, sure, the Angels actually won more games in a tougher division, but since they didn't make the playoffs, I guess that makes the Tigers the better team and Cabrera's season more valuable. Or something like that.

There's an obvious split in logic here. As Dave Cameron pointed out on FanGraphs, if making the playoffs is the trump card, the MVP debate shouldn't start with a list of the best players from all the teams, but a list of the best players on the playoff teams. The way the MVP vote is currently conducted, it does seem as if bonus points are awarded for making the playoffs, even in a somewhat dubious situation like this year's Tigers finishing with the seventh-best record in the AL and winning a weak division.

It certainly wasn't about all-around play, considering that in past votes, a player's all-around ability and positional value pushed him over the top in the voting: Dustin Pedroia over Justin Morneau in 2008, Ichiro Suzuki over Jason Giambi in 2001, Larry Walker over Mike Piazza in 1997, Barry Larkin over Dante Bichette in 1995, Cal Ripken over Cecil Fielder in 1991 and so on down to MVP winners like Zoilo Versalles or Brooks Robinson or Ernie Banks. To be fair, there have been a fair share of one-dimensional sluggers to win MVP awards: Ryan Howard, Juan Gonzalez, Mo Vaughn, Kevin Mitchell, Jeff Burroughs and so forth. The writers aren't really consistent on this judgment.

No, in the end, it's about the narrative. The writers viewed Cabrera's accomplishment in better light than Trout's all-around brilliance. Bob Costas said Cabrera had the "year of his life," which isn't really true. By WAR, Cabrera was just as valuable in 2011 -- 7.3 wins above replacement versus 6.9 this season. He had a higher OPS in both 2010 and 2011. If anything, Cabrera's 2012 is a symbol of his remarkable consistency, durability and greatness: He's basically been doing this since 2005.

But the story says Cabrera hit one more home run than Curtis Granderson and Josh Hamilton and won the batting title over Trout by .004 points. (If Trout gets three more hits, he wins the batting title). Two home runs. Three singles. The difference between and MVP winner and an MVP runner-up.

Your 2012 MLB All-Star team

November, 5, 2012
11/05/12
5:10
PM ET
I've always thought Major League Baseball should announce an official end-of-season All-Star team. You could have different voting components -- 25 percent computer, 25 percent fans, 25 percent players and managers, 25 percent media, something like that. Make a big production out of it, get a sponsor, get the players to show up, televise it during one of the off days of the World Series and drum up some publicity for the game's best players. What a concept!

So make it happen. There are end-of-year All-Star teams named, of course -- I think The Associated Press still names one and some individual publications will name their own. So in the interest of fun, here's mine. I factor in the entire season, which means the postseason counts. Also: Who's your player of the year?

C: Buster Posey, Giants (.336/.408/.549, 24 HR, 103 RBI, 7.2 WAR)
Yadier Molina had a terrific season as well, but since we're factoring in the postseason, the Giants' World Series pushes Posey over the top. According to Baseball-Reference Wins Above Replacement, the only three catchers since 1980 with better seasons were Mike Piazza in 1997, Gary Carter in 1982 and Joe Mauer in 2009. Posey should become the first catcher to win the NL MVP Award since Johnny Bench in 1972.

1B: Prince Fielder, Tigers (.313/.412/.529, 30 HR, 103 RBI, 4.4 WAR
By WAR, Joey Votto was the best first baseman in the majors, but Fielder played all 162 games while Votto missed 51 games. It was a pretty weak year for first basemen -- only Votto, Pujols, Fielder and Adam LaRoche reached 4.0 Wins Above Replacement. Fielder has now posted four straight seasons with an OBP over .400, he's missed one game in those four seasons and he walked more than he struck out for the second straight season. He may have the body of a slugger, but Fielder is a hitter.

2B: Robinson Cano, Yankees (.313/.379/.550), 33 HR, 94 RBI, 8.2 WAR
He got criticized for his production with runners in scoring position (he hit .268, .207 with two outs), but that's nitpicking a fantastic player who had another terrific all-around season. He did hit .316 with men on base and .286 in "late and close" situations, so he wasn't a zero in the clutch. He hit 22 of his 33 home runs at home, but hit more doubles with more walks and a slightly higher average on the road, so his overall production was actually pretty similar. It was his best season, an MVP-worthy campaign in many seasons.

3B: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers (.330/.393/.606, 44 HR, 139 RBI, 6.9 WAR
Cabrera had a fantastic season, of course, winning the Triple Crown, but his season at the plate wasn't really any more valuable than 2010 or 2011. In fact, his wRC+ and OPS were higher both seasons. His walks did drop from 108 to 66 (intentional walks from 22 to 17), perhaps a result of Fielder hitting behind him. His home runs did increase from 30 to 44, and while you can argue that was because Fielder was protecting him, it's worth noting that Cabrera led the majors with 16 "just enough" home runs, according to the ESPN Home Run Tracker. By the way, isn't it time to start listing the Tigers' acquisition of Cabrera from the Marlins as one of the greatest heists of all time?

SS: Ian Desmond, Nationals (.292/.335/.511, 25 HR, 73 RBI, 3.2 WAR)
There was no standout shortstop this year -- and, yes, I didn't forget about Derek Jeter, who had a great season at the plate with a .316 average and major league-leading 216 hits. Erick Aybar had the highest WAR at 4.0, but I'm going with Desmond, the only regular shortstop to slug .500. The defense is a bit erratic at times, but he has a strong arm, the power numbers were big and he swiped 21 bases in 27 tries. His improvement was a big reason the Nationals owned the best record in the majors.

OF: Mike Trout, Angels (.326/.399/.564, 30 HR, 83 RBI, 49 SB, 10.7 WAR)
What do you do for an encore after a season like this in which you turned 21?

OF: Ryan Braun, Brewers (.319/.391/.595, 41 HR, 112 RBI, 30 SB, 6.8 WAR)
Nearly identical numbers to his MVP season of 2011, although I suspect he'll finish out of the top-five in the balloting. Led the NL in home runs, runs, OPS and total bases. The affects of not having Fielder behind him? Pretty minimal, other than his intentional walks increasing from two to 15. The Brewers, by the way, scored more runs in 2012 than 2011.

OF: Andrew McCutchen, Pirates (.327/.400/.553, 31 HR, 96 RBI, 7.0 WAR)
Now, get this man some help. Pirates outfielder with 7-win seasons: Roberto Clemente (5), Barry Bonds (4), Ralph Kiner (3), Willie Stargell (2), Dave Parker (1). And now McCutchen.

SportsNation

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Discuss (Total votes: 54,794)

DH: Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays (.280/.384/.557, 42 HR, 110 RBI, 4.2 WAR)
It's not like he hadn't showed power before -- 26 home runs with the Reds in 2008, 38 over the past two seasons in part-time roles -- but I don't think anybody saw this coming. He did start 66 games at first base and that could be his full-time destination in 2013. Regardless of where he plays, expect big numbers again.

SP: Justin Verlander, Tigers (17-8, 2.64 ERA, 238.1 IP, 60 BB, 239 SO, 7.6 WAR)
I'm sure he'd like that final game, a disappointing end to an otherwise dominant season. It will be interesting to see if the Tigers back off him a little next season, making sure you have all your bullets left in October.

SP: David Price, Rays (20-5, 2.56 ERA, 211 IP, 59 BB, 205 SO, 6.4 WAR)
My guess is he edges out Verlander for the Cy Young Award, given the similar ERA but better W-L record. I think Verlander's 27-inning edge and performance in front of an inferior defense gives him the edge, but Price's 20 wins will likely sway the voters.

SP: R.A. Dickey, Mets (20-6, 2.73 ERA, 233.2 IP, 54 BB, 230 SO, 5.6 WAR)
Led the NL in innings, strikeouts, batters faced, complete games and shutouts. A wonderful year, a wonderful story.

SP: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers (14-9, 2.53 ERA, 227.2 IP, 63 BB, 220 SO, 6.2 WAR
Nobody talked about him all season, but he once again ended up with dominant numbers. Don't be fooled by the 14 wins: He was every bit as good as last year. Don't blame him for the Dodgers not beating out the Giants: In five starts against San Francisco, he allowed seven runs, walked seven and struck out 40. Alas, he went just 2-3.

SP: Matt Cain, Giants (16-5, 2.79 ERA, 219.1 IP, 51 BB, 193 SO, 3.5 WAR)
In a year with so many strong starting pitching candidates, I'm giving Cain the fifth spot. His WAR isn't as impressive as some of the other candidates, but he became the ace of the rotation that won it all. Sounds like a good tiebreaker to me.

RP: Craig Kimbrel, Braves (3-1, 1.01 ERA, 42 SV, 62.2 IP, 27 H, 116 SO, 3.2 WAR)
With that unhittable slider, opposing batters hit just .126 off him and Kimbrel struck out over half the batters he faced. A season that ranks alongside Eric Gagne's 2003 Cy Young season and Dennis Eckersley's 1990 as best ever by a closer in the past 25 years.

DETROIT -- Maybe this is the new new thing in baseball: Build a starting rotation so good you can put your two-time Cy Young winner in the bullpen in the World Series, draft a future MVP to build your lineup around, piece together a bunch of hitters who take pitches and put the ball in play, be willing to spend some money for some veteran additions at the trade deadline, catch everything hit your way and a few that aren’t … and, of course, catch a few breaks along the way to postseason glory.

The San Francisco Giants are the World Series champions of 2012. Maybe that wasn’t a wild prediction back in spring training, or at the start of the playoffs, but things certainly looked bleak when they lost the first two games at home to the Reds in the Division Series, or when they fell behind in the NLCS against the Cardinals. Both times they had to win three in a row.

In the World Series, it was a little easier -- a four-game sweep of the Detroit Tigers, including the first back-to-back shutouts since 1966.

[+] Enlarge
Ryan Theriot
Doug Pensinger/Getty ImagesRyan Theriot, who had been relegated to a bench role, started Game 4 as the DH and scored the winning run.
Sunday night's Game 4 at Comerica Park was a more difficult win, a tense, exciting extra-inning affair that merely prolonged the agony of the cold and wet Tigers fans. With two outs in the top of the 10th inning, Marco Scutaro lined a 3-1 fastball from Phil Coke in front of center fielder Austin Jackson and Ryan Theriot tore around third base with the go-ahead run, the World Series-winning run in the Giants' 4-3 victory.

In the bottom of the inning, Sergio Romo mowed down Jackson and then pinch-hitter Don Kelly and only had to retire Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera to clinch the seventh World Series championship in franchise history and their second in three years. Romo threw five consecutive sliders -- that lethal slider that Romo learned in junior college in Colorado, a pitch that hitters just can’t seem to pick up -- to get the count to two balls and two strikes.

Surely, another one was coming. Instead, the sixth pitch was an 89 mph fastball down the middle. Cabrera couldn’t pull the trigger and the celebration was on.

That final inning summed up the magic of the 2012 Giants. Theriot, who started the inning with a bloop single to right, was making his first start of the postseason. Scutaro was one of general manager Brian Sabean’s midseason fortifications. Romo, the closer, was the third pitcher to assume that role for the Giants this season. It was a team effort, symbolic of the Giants’ strengths in this series compared to the Tigers: A deeper roster, timely hitting, the ability of bench players to step into bigger roles and deliver big hits and big outs.

Every World Series champion has stars, of course, and the Giants’ two biggest stars of 2012 -- Buster Posey and Matt Cain -- both came up big in Game 4. But as much as any recent World Series champion, this feels like a team effort, a title won by players one through 25, with a little help from manager Bruce Bochy's magic touch.

A sweep certainly wouldn't have been expected a few days ago. "I never would have thought we’d sweep the New York Yankees and I never would have thought we’d get swept," losing manager Jim Leyland said. "It’s a freaky game, but it happens."

* * * *

Both managers faced interesting decisions in the eighth inning, when the score was tied 3-3. After Octavio Dotel walked Scutaro on four pitches, Leyland could have brought in Coke to turn Pablo Sandoval around to his weaker side -- all six of his home runs in the postseason had come from the left side. And while Coke had held righties to a 2-for-14 mark in the postseason, they hit .396 off him in the regular season. Add in that Posey absolutely destroyed left-handers this season, and Leyland made the right move to leave in Dotel, a move that paid off when Dotel induced a 3-6-1 double play.

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Prince Fielder
Ezra Shaw/Getty ImagesPrince Fielder had only one hit in 14 at-bats during the World Series.
With Cain done after seven innings and 102 pitches, Bochy had the option of lefty Jeremy Affeldt to face Quintin Berry (or likely pinch-hitter Avisail Garcia), Cabrera and Prince Fielder, or right-hander Santiago Casilla. He chose Affeldt, who had thrown 8 2/3 scoreless innings in the postseason, meaning he’d take his chances against Cabrera. When Garcia walked on a 3-2 fastball, that meant Affeldt had to go right after Cabrera and he struck him out on three pitches. He threw a nasty 1-1 big-breaking ball to Fielder for a called strike and then got Fielder swinging on a 92 mph fastball. Affeldt got the side when he fanned Delmon Young on a 2-2 slider.

In the end, it wasn't a World Series that revolved around managerial decisions like last season's. Leyland made the right moves, Bochy made the right moves. Bochy's players just came through.

* * * *

Once again, the Giants' defense made some crucial plays, the highlight being Brandon Crawford's bare-handed pickup and throw to gun down Berry after Berry’s grounder deflected off Cain’s glove. The play ended the fifth and left Cabrera leading off the sixth instead of batting with two runners on. Sandoval also made a nice play on Berry’s bunt in the third, with Brandon Belt scooping Sandoval’s low throw. Cabrera followed that play with his home run -- a two-run shot, instead of what could have been a three-run shot, the jet stream carried over the fence in right.

* * * *

Posey had gone 10 games without an extra-base hit since hitting the big grand slam off the Reds' Mat Latos in Game 5 of the Division Series. But the likely NL MVP had the game's most important hit, a two-run homer off a Max Scherzer changeup in the sixth inning, lined just fair down the left-field line.

While Posey came through, the Tigers' big stars didn't. Cabrera hit the two-run homer but struck out three times, something he had done just once in the regular season. Fielder went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts and the two sluggers finished just 4-for-27 in the series.

The Tigers had to ride their stars. The Giants rode an entire team.


DETROIT -- We can go silly overanalyzing three baseball games, so let’s keep it simple: The Detroit Tigers are a stars-and-scrubs team. If the stars aren’t delivering, it’s going to be an uphill climb. And now that climb is Mount Everest.

In Game 1, Justin Verlander didn’t deliver. In Game 2, Prince Fielder grounded into a crucial double play with the score 0-0 in the seventh inning. In Game 3 on Saturday night at Comerica Park, Fielder and Miguel Cabrera both had their chances. With two on in the first, Fielder grounded into a 4-6-3 double play, with Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford nicely turning two as Cabrera barreled down on him. In the fifth, Cabrera batted with the bases loaded, two out and the Tigers down two runs, but Ryan Vogelsong induced Cabrera to pop out to shortstop.

When that ball fell harmlessly into Crawford’s glove, the air was sucked out of Comerica. You had the feeling the game -- and perhaps the World Series -- ended there, with the best hitter in baseball unable to knock in runs the Tigers desperately needed. Oh, Comerica tried to come to life a couple times after that -- when Anibal Sanchez struck out Angel Pagan to end the top of the seventh and when Cabrera led off the bottom of the eighth -- but the fans were muted by the cold air and wind and the big, fat zero on the scoreboard.

The final score: Giants 2, Tigers 0, the Giants now 27 outs from a World Series sweep after becoming the first team with consecutive shutouts in the World Series since the 1966 Orioles.

Cabrera and Fielder are now 3-for-19 in the series, without an extra-base hit and with one RBI that came in Game 1, trailing by six runs. (Austin Jackson has a .500 OBP in the series, so it's not like they've been hitting with the bases empty every time.)

"I wouldn’t say it’s pressing," Fielder said after the game. "That’s just a word you use when you’re not playing well."

I happen to agree with Fielder. There will be a lot of opinions out there tomorrow or if the Tigers go down in Game 4 that Cabrera and Fielder pressed or choked or whatever label you wish to apply. Teams struggle for short stretches like this all the time in the regular season, of course; such stretches are unremarkable in the midst of 162 games. The difference is in the regular season there's a next day. For Fielder and Cabrera, there's only one more tomorrow to snap out of their mini-slumps.

* * * *

Vogelsong wasn’t near as dominant in this start as in his two in the National League Championship Series against the Cardinals, when he allowed just eight hits and three walks in 14 innings, but he scuffled through 104 pitches in 5.2 innings and got the big outs when he needed them -- the Fielder double play in the first, a Quintin Berry double play in the third, the Cabrera popup. He gave up five hits, walked four and struck out three. Here’s how rare his outing was: Since 1990, a starting pitcher has had four walks and three strikeouts in a postseason game 25 times; each time the starter allowed at least one run and the average was 3.2 runs allowed.

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Miguel Cabrera
H. Darr Beiser/USA TODAY Sports Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera, popping out to end the fifth, is 2-for-9 in the World Series.
So give props to Vogelsong for making pitches when he had to, but the Tigers also missed their opportunities. This gets a little to the stars-and-scrubs description of the Tigers: Once you get past Jackson, Cabrera and Fielder, there just isn’t much to fear in the Detroit lineup. This is best exemplified by the Nos. 2 and 5 hitters, Berry and Delmon Young.

I’ve written enough about Young, so I’ll skip him other than to mention he had a .279 OBP against right-handed pitchers in the regular season. Berry, back in the lineup with a right-handed pitcher starting, was a nice story this year: Essentially an organizational player, signed last November as a minor league free agent, he’d been let go by the Phillies, Mets and Reds in his career. Called up in late May after an injury, he had a hot few weeks and Jim Leyland and the Tigers kind of fell in love with him. He can run (21-for-21 in stolen bases) and his glove was a big improvement over the likes of Young and Brennan Boesch in the outfield.

But Berry has no business batting second in a World Series game. Since July 1, he hit .224/.285/.312 (BA/OBP/SLG), which is probably a fair assessment of his abilities. OK, he can run and none of other Tigers except Jackson and Omar Infante can. But he killed the Tigers in Game 3: the double play, striking out with the bases loaded and one out ahead of Cabrera’s popup, and then striking out feebly against a Tim Lincecum changeup in the seventh (OK, a lot of hitters have done that through the years).

Look, Berry is the kind of underdog you root for, but he was exposed in this game.

* * * *

Give credit to Sanchez for a strong performance. Unfortunately, he had one bad inning -- the second, when he seemed to lose his fastball command. He walked Hunter Pence on four straight pitches to start the frame, which isn’t easy to do. That began a laborious 31-pitch inning, with the key hit being Gregor Blanco’s one-out triple to deep right-center on a 3-2 slider. With two outs, Sanchez fell behind Crawford with a first-pitch changeup and Crawford then lined a 1-1 fastball just in front of Jackson for the Giants’ second run.

* * * *

Speaking of Crawford, he turned two nice double plays and made a diving stop and throw to take a hit away from Cabrera to begin the eighth. He did make an error later that inning, but he’s played an outstanding shortstop throughout the playoffs. Looks like a kid who will be winning some Gold Gloves in the future.

* * * *

Finally, kudos to the Giants’ new secret weapon: relief pitcher Lincecum, who threw 2.1 hitless innings with three strikeouts. His dominant performance allowed Bochy to easily bridge the gap to closer Sergio Romo with just one middle reliever. It certainly makes managing a little easier when you can minimize the use of your bullpen (you never know which guy may not have it that night) and not worry about LOOGYs and ROOGYs. Old school, baby.

* * * *

There isn't much to analyze now. Blanked in two consecutive games, the Tigers now have to face Giants ace Matt Cain. Before Game 1, I thought the key decision looming over the series was Bochy's decision to start the struggling Madison Bumgarner in Game 2, which meant Cain would be lined up for just one start. Well, now Cain has a chance to pitch the clinching game of a World Series. The Giants have won six in a row and their starters have a 0.47 ERA over that span.

The Tigers turn to Max Scherzer, who is certainly capable of a big game. He's allowed just two runs in his two playoff starts, although he was pulled in the sixth inning both games with his pitch counts in the 90s. Even if he shuts down the Giants, Leyland will likely need some length from his bullpen. It's certainly possible and a win means Verlander in Game 5 and then Tigers fans can start dreaming of the impossible ...


SAN FRANCISCO -- This was the Madison Bumgarner Giants fans saw most of the season: the pitcher with impeccable control, the ability to get inside on right-handed batters, generate ground balls and change speeds. This was the pitcher who had become one of the best young left-handers in the game, not the guy who had struggled in recent weeks.

Bumgarner justified manager Bruce Bochy’s faith in choosing him to start Game 2 over Tim Lincecum or Ryan Vogelsong, leading the Giants to a 2-0 victory and sweep of the first two games. He threw seven shutout innings, an efficient 86 pitches with eight strikeouts and just two hits allowed, one of those being an infield single. It was a dominant effort.

Amazingly, the day before, Bumgarner himself didn’t seem to know what to expect. Through his first 25 starts he had a 2.83 ERA and had allowed a .218 opponents' average. But he had struggled since an August start against the Dodgers when he threw 123 pitches. Since then he’d posted a 6.85 ERA. His fastball velocity had dipped and he appeared fatigued in his previous playoff start, against the Cardinals. Batters had feasted off his fastball, hitting .400 against it his past nine starts.

Before Game 1, he hesitantly suggested he and pitching coach Dave Righetti had resolved his issues. “I think we were going through some mechanical issues that -- just some small things that might have affected my arm and made it more difficult to throw, and I think that’s really all it was,” he said. “I think we’ve got it fixed. Like I said before, there’s no way to tell 100 percent until you get out there and get going game speed.”

I think we’re 100 percent sure now.

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Doug Fister -- despite taking a line drive off his head in the second inning -- matched Bumgarner zero for zero through six innings, albeit with one caveat: not with the same efficiency.

That set up the key decision of the game. With Hunter Pence leading off the bottom of the seventh, Fister had thrown 108 pitches. Pence hits right-handed, followed by three lefties. Jim Leyland had right-hander Octavio Dotel and rookie lefty Drew Smyly warming up. If Leyland brings in Dotel -- probably his best option against right-handed hitters -- it’s probably for just one hitter with the string of lefties due up.

Leyland decided to leave in Fister for one more batter; he’d thrown more than 108 pitches seven times, so it wasn’t uncharted territory. Pence had flied out twice against him and has looked feeble most of the postseason. There were certainly cries on Twitter suggesting Leyland should have pulled Fister. I see it both ways. I can certainly see Leyland’s desire to hold back Dotel to possibly face Marco Scutaro and Buster Posey later in the game. It's easy to criticize Leyland since the decision didn't work out and in this day and age few managers want to lose game when a starter is over 100 pitches.

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Gregor Blanco
Robert Hanashiro/USA TODAYThis little thing -- Gregor Blanco's bunt staying fair -- led to the only run the Giants needed in Game 2.
On his 114th pitch, Fister left a 2-2 slider over the middle of the plate and Pence grounded a base hit past Miguel Cabrera.

That brought in Smyly, who walked Brandon Belt on a 3-2 slider up out of the zone. Gregor Blanco then placed a bunt down the third-base line, the ball rolling to a stop on the dirt between the grass and the baseline. Catcher Gerald Laird had no option but to let the ball go; it was just a perfect bunt by Blanco. Brandon Crawford grounded into a double play but that scored the game’s first run.

Leyland did have another option there. Use Phil Coke instead of Smyly. Coke, of course, had defaulted into the closer's role after Jose Valverde's postseason implosion and pitched well in the American League Championship Series against the Yankees. Normally, the seventh inning -- especially against the left-handers -- would have been Coke's inning, followed by Joaquin Benoit and Valverde. Instead, Leyland trusted a rookie with little experience pitching in relief. Coke did finally get into the game -- in the eighth, with the Tigers now trailing 2-0.

"Probably if Valverde was ready, probably would have had Coke in that situation, but Smyly did fine," Leyland said. "He got a little bit wild there, but he got a couple big outs. He got the double-play ball and gave us our shot at it."

A 114th pitch. A slider meant to be a few inches outside left over the plate. A perfect bunt. The little things.

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One more little thing that can matter: sliding. In the top of the second with none out, Prince Fielder was hit by a pitch and Delmon Young doubled just inside the third-base bag. As the ball bounced away from left fielder Blanco, third-base coach Gene Lamont waved home Fielder. First, the wave. With nobody out, you had better be pretty sure Fielder is going to score. In fact, you had better be just about absolutely sure Fielder is going to score.

According to sabermetrician Tom Tango’s run-scoring matrix, an average team would be expected to score about 2.05 runs with runners at second and third and no outs; with a runner on second and one out, the average run production is about 0.7 runs. That data is from 1993 through 2010, so the run-scoring environment is a little lower now, and of course you would have to adjust based on upcoming hitters and so forth. Still, Lamont’s decision was about a 1.3-run decision. Fair or not, he made the wrong one.

Blanco’s relay throw actually airmailed shortstop Crawford, but Scutaro -- him again! -- was backing up and threw home to catcher Posey, and replays showed he tagged Fielder on his shoe and/or rump just before he slid across the plate. If Fielder had slid to the back part of the plate, he probably would've been safe, as Posey would have had to stretch to make the tag. That’s asking a lot from Fielder, however; he's not paid to slide expertly into home plate. Yes, the next two Tigers hitters popped out and struck out, so maybe Fielder wouldn’t have scored, but it’s kind of like time travel: That play changes everything that potentially comes after.

Then, in the top of the fourth, Omar Infante was picked off first and caught at second. With a better slide -- he dragged his foot behind him -- he might have been called safe.

Those two plays exemplified the first two games of the series: The Giants made plays and the Tigers didn't. Pablo Sandoval snagged a Cabrera line drive; Cabrera didn't have the range on Pence's base hit. Scutaro made the relay, Fielder didn't make the slide. Smyly couldn't execute the 3-2 slider that he walked Belt on, Fielder grounded into a 1-6-3 double play after Cabrera had led off the seventh with a walk.

Right now, like Bumgarner's pitches on a perfect San Francisco October evening, everything is working for the Giants.


They call him Kung Fu Panda. Now they can call him a World Series legend.

Pablo Sandoval, a batter who rarely sees a pitch he doesn’t like, found three pitches he loved in the World Series opener and entered his name alongside three of the biggest names in the history of the game.

Ruth. Reggie. Pujols. Pablo. The only four players to hit three home runs in a World Series game.

Here’s the thing: The first three guys didn’t hit two homers off the reigning best pitcher in the world. The San Francisco Giants beat Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers 8-3 but the score was secondary to one of the great individual performances in World Series history (Sandoval would later add a line-drive single to finish 4-for-4). His trip into the record books:

Home run No. 1: An 0-2 95-mph fastball that Verlander tried to elevate but Sandoval jacked to dead center, a 421-foot rocket of a line drive with two out in the first. It wasn’t necessarily a bad pitch -- eye level -- but Sandoval has the hand-eye coordination to extend the strike zone like few batters. In that regard, he’s similar to two great World Series performers of the past, Yogi Berra and Kirby Puckett, notorious bad-ball hitters. And at least in Puckett’s case, even the similar stocky build.

How unlikely was the home run? Not surprisingly, Verlander hadn’t served up an 0-2 home run all season and only four in his career.

Home run No. 2: After Angel Pagan had doubled off the third-base bag with two out in the third and scored on Marco Scutaro’s sharp single up the middle, Verlander threw Sandoval two changeups in the dirt, prompting a quick visit from pitching coach Jeff Jones. The next pitch was a 95-mph fastball on the outside corner that Sandoval drove to left field, just clearing the fence for a two-run homer. Again, not a terrible pitch, just a terrific swing. Of Sandoval’s 12 regular-season home runs, just two went to left field or left-center, but he hit nine in that direction in 2011, so he has legit opposite-field power.

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Pablo Sandoval, Angel Pagan
Robert Hanashiro/USA TODAY SportsAngel Pagan, who went 2-for-4 himself, salutes Pablo Sandoval after his first homer as Giants manager Bruce Bochy looks on.
Home run No. 3: Now facing reliever Al Alburquerque in the fifth, Sandoval golfed a 1-1 slider that was barely off the ground into a long, beautiful arc over the center-field fence, sending Giants fans into a communal roar of joy. Is there a better sound than a ballpark erupting?

The amazing thing: None of the three pitches was grooved. Two were outside the strike zone. It was simply three swings for the ages for Kung Fu Panda.

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It’s easy to say after the fact that Verlander didn’t have it, but the first two batters of the game were an indication this would be tougher going than when he faced the Oakland A’s and New York Yankees. Verlander required six pitches to retire Pagan, who fouled off three fastballs before finally grounding out on a curve. Scutaro grounded out on a 2-1 slider, laying off a tough 1-1 curveball.

The Giants have a completely different approach than the two teams Verlander faced in the American League playoffs. The A’s are a swing-from-the-heels team that set a league record for strikeouts. The Yankees clearly were in midst of a team-wide offensive meltdown. But the Giants play in a tough home run park -- fewer home runs were hit at AT&T this season than any other park -- and play a style that suits their home stadium. Only the Phillies struck out fewer times in the National League, as the Giants work the count, put the ball in play and make the opposing defense make plays.

As dominant as Verlander was in his three previous playoff starts, and even though he was working with plenty of rest, it’s worth noting he was worked hard down the stretch. He has had 12 games of 120-plus pitches this year, including the postseason, and six of those came on Aug. 28 or later. His three starts against the A’s and Yankees featured pitch counts of 121, 122 and 132.

I’m not saying that’s the reason he struggled; give credit to the Giants for a lot of quality at-bats. Pagan and Scutaro are locked in right now and the Tigers will have to figure out a way to keep those two off the bases. Maybe Verlander was also too amped-up, as he was in the All-Star Game. In fact, only twice in the past two years has Verlander failed to pitch at least five innings (other than the rain-delayed playoff game against the Yankees a year ago): Game 1 of the 2012 World Series and Game 1 of the 2011 American League Championship Series. Questions about his ability to stay focused and in the right frame of mind will be there out until his next start.

* * * *

Defense could still play a major factor in this series. Pagan’s double off the bag wasn’t Miguel Cabrera’s fault, although even if he fields that ball I’m not sure he throws out Pagan. Delmon Young was playing left field pretty much over in Oakland, even for weaker hitters such as Gregor Blanco, which made no sense. It didn’t really come into play in this game, although he may have had a chance to throw out Brandon Belt at home plate on Barry Zito’s RBI single in the fourth. Instead, he chunked one of the worst throws you’ll ever see. With Madison Bumgarner starting Game 2, I'm sure we'll see Young out there again. Beware, Tigers fans, beware. Meanwhile, Blanco made two diving catches in left field, an example of the Giants' edge at several positions.

* * * *

Finally, Zito did what he had to do. Bruce Bochy got him out of the game as soon as he got into trouble in the sixth, with Tim Lincecum again looking like a guy who can be a big weapon out of the bullpen. The winners of Game 1 have won eight of the past nine World Series and 13 of 15. But as Wednesday night showed, those are just numbers. We have no idea what is going to happen.

Cabrera/RomoAP PhotosHow closer Sergio Romo, right, and the Giants staff deal with Miguel Cabrera could be a Series key.


It has been a long season. Remember when the Oakland A's and Seattle Mariners began in Japan way back in March? OK, you probably don't. But you've made it this far. Don't quit now. We have at least four more games left and hopefully seven. Here's why I'm watching what should be an exciting World Series between two of the game's storied franchises -- and even though this is the San Francisco Giants' 19th World Series trip and the Detroit Tigers' 11th, they've never met before.

1. Miguel Cabrera. The best hitter on the planet on the game's biggest stage: Yeah, that's a pretty good place to start. I can’t wait to see how the Giants attack him. He has been kept under wraps for the most part this postseason, hitting .278 with one home run in nine games, so he has to be careful not to press if the Giants don’t give him much to hit. But I have the feeling Cabrera may show us why he won the Triple Crown.

2. Justin Verlander. He might not win the AL Cy Young Award this season, but Verlander is the game’s best starting pitcher with the game’s most dominating stuff. After mediocre results in his first two postseasons in 2006 (his rookie season) and 2011, he has been lights-out so far, with three wins in three starts. No starting pitcher has ever won five games in a single postseason, but because he’ll start Game 1, he could have the opportunity to start twice. One thing to watch: The A’s led the league in strikeouts; the Yankees were clearly in an offensive slump of historic proportions. The Giants are a contact team against whom the strikeouts won’t come quite so easily. That means more balls in play and more pressure on the Detroit's suspect defense. We’ll see how Verlander responds to this tougher assignment.

3. Jim Leyland's and Bruce Bochy’s place in history. It’s amazing to realize that when Leyland won the World Series with the Marlins in 1997 he was only 52 years old. Wasn’t he kind of portrayed as the slightly cranky baseball lifer even then? He's now 67 and trying to win another title. He and Bochy are two of the best managers of the past quarter-century and both are going for their second championship. Neither has managed in the major media markets of New York, Chicago, Los Angeles or Boston, although Leyland has certainly received more media attention through the years than Bochy. The winner of this series may have something bigger at stake than media attention, however: a place in the Hall of Fame. Not every manager with two titles is in (Cito Gaston, Tom Kelly to name two), but Leyland is 15th on the all-time win list and Bochy is 23rd. This Series could cement their legacy.

4. Marco Scutaro. One of the best things about the postseason is how a player like Scutaro -- a good player, although certainly more role player than star -- can become the most important guy for a team for a couple weeks. It doesn’t have to be a team’s No. 3 or 4 hitter who does all the damage, and Scutaro enters on a roll after knocking out 14 hits in the National League Championship Series. The Giants had an obvious parallel two years ago in Cody Ross, another late-season acquisition who came up big in October. Admire Scutaro for his old-school approach at the plate: He puts the ball in play with his superior contact skills, a trait lost amid this generation’s incessant desire for power.

5. Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum and Madison Bumgarner. They may not all get a World Series start -- Bumgarner’s velocity and stuff have been down in recent starts -- but this trio has the chance to make its mark with a second World Series title. Think how difficult that is: Not even the Greg Maddux-Tom Glavine-John Smoltz trio was able to do that. Lincecum, of course, didn’t have a good season, but that doesn’t matter now. All the Giants need from him is one -- or maybe two -- good starts.

6. Intentional walks and sacrifice bunts. Remember last year’s World Series when Ron Washington and Tony La Russa went crazy with ill-advised free passes and odd bunts? It was a second-guesser’s dream. I don’t expect to see the same slew of erratic decisions from Leyland and Bochy, but the World Series can turn even the most level-headed of managers into chemists with a room full of potions. In the National League Championship Series, we saw how Mike Matheny’s free pass to No. 8 hitter Brandon Crawford in Game 6 led to a big inning. Last year, Washington’s intentional walk to Albert Pujols in Game 6 was a key decision in the Rangers’ eventual defeat. In a tight series, managerial decisions can be a decisive factor.

7. Prince Fielder. Many in the industry were not pleased when the Tigers coughed up $214 million to sign Fielder. Hey, imagine that: Tigers owner Mike Ilitch is 83 years old and wants to win a World Series. OK, so Fielder isn’t riding the exercise bike after games. Despite his girth, Fielder is actually one of the most gifted hitters in the game. He seemed a little overanxious at times in the first two rounds, hitting .211 with two unintentional walks, but maybe he’ll be more relaxed as he plays in his first World Series.

8. Sergio Romo. Who says you need a closer who throws 98 mph? Romo is a guy who barely cracks 90 but has a deadly slider that hitters have trouble picking up. He’s another great story, a guy the Giants never seemed to fully believe in until they were forced to use him as the closer after Brian Wilson was injured and Santiago Casilla struggled. Bochy had primarily used Romo as a right-handed relief specialist in recent seasons (last year he pitched just 48 innings in 65 appearances), but now he has earned Bochy's confidence to face all swingers -- as he should, after holding lefties to a .167 average this season. At some point, he’ll probably need to protect a one-run lead against two guys named Cabrera and Fielder and that's going to be some kind of wonderful.

9. Cold weather. Because it’s always fun watch players wearing layers, ear muffs and hand warmers. Oh, wait, no it’s not. The weather in Detroit this weekend may dip into the high 30s, so cold that Leyland might be given special dispensation to smoke in the dugout. But the dark, not-so-secret aspect of cold weather is the realization that the season’s most important games can be played in weather more suitable for creating ice sculptures than baseball art. Let's hope foul weather isn't a factor.

10. Who will have Darrell Evans throw out the first pitch? Yes, I’ve termed this the Darrell Evans World Series. You know, like if it had been the Reds versus the Tigers, we would have had the Sparky Anderson World Series. Or the Cardinals-Tigers would have been the Rematch of 1968 World Series, with highlight reels of Bob Gibson and Mickey Lolich. Instead, we get the Darrell Evans World Series, the underrated star of the '70s and '80s who played for both franchises (he was part of Detroit’s 1984 World Series champs). Make it happen! We need a Darrell Evans sighting.

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