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When the Detroit Tigers inked their prodigal son to a contract back in January, the bulk of the Tigers fan base knew Prince Fielder’s presence would come with strings attached. They knew that the cost of signing him was not exclusively limited to the nine-year deal, or the $214 million, or the drama with his estranged father.

They knew that, given the fact that All-Star first baseman Miguel Cabrera was already on the roster, there would have to be some shuffling done. Questions were quickly answered at the news conference announcing Fielder's deal; the more agile Cabrera would move across the diamond and play third base, as he had when he first arrived in Detroit four years ago, and Fielder would play first base.

Immediately, you took a look at the projected infield of Fielder, a platoon of Brandon Inge/Ryan Raburn/Ramon Santiago at second base, Jhonny Peralta at shortstop, and Cabrera, and you cringed. While national writers and bloggers lamented how this would affect the Tigers’ starting pitching, the Tigers fan base, for the most part, shrugged and said, "We know it’s bad, we know there’s no range. But. They. Will. Score. Runs."

Well, here we are, nearly two months into the season and the Tigers sit at 21-24 entering Saturday's action and are in third place in the AL Central. The bullpen hasn’t been consistent (while better as of late, they still sit at a league-high 4.64 ERA), and the offense has been suspect and stagnant, but both of those will most likely improve as the season goes on. The defense, however, has certainly lived up to its reputation. I’m not sure it’s going to get better.

On May 16, the Tigers and Rick Porcello faced the last-place Minnesota Twins. Porcello induced two groundballs to start the game. Fielder fielded the first one cleanly for one out and Santiago (starting at shortstop to give Peralta the day off) fielded the second one cleanly for what should have been the second out. However, Fielder flat out dropped the throw, and Brian Dozier was safe at first on the error.

The Twins capitalized. Joe Mauer doubled Dozier home, and Josh Willingham doubled Mauer home. While it wasn’t the final out of the inning, Fielder’s gaffe on an easy play turned into a pair of runs before Porcello could recover, striking out the final two batters of the inning.

The Tigers scored once in the bottom half of the inning and Porcello returned to the mound trailing only 2-1. After he recorded two outs and allowed a single, Erik Komatsu bounced a groundball to Raburn, who booted the easy play. With both runners safe, Dozier stepped to the plate and promptly swatted a three-run home run to make it 5-1, Minnesota. Four of those runs came courtesy of the Tigers’ infield defense.

The Tigers ended up losing the game, 11-7, each member of the infield defense had an error, and the game became the perfect example of how to lose when professional baseball players forget to play defense. It wasn’t the first game, and it certainly won’t be the last.

Defensive efficiency measures the percentage of batted balls in play that are converted into outs. It’s obviously not the only thing you look at when measuring a team defense, but it is one thing. And in this area, the Tigers are among the worst in baseball, ranking 26th in the majors at .692. The Blue Jays top the majors with a .735, meaning they're turning an extra 4.3 percent of balls in play into outs compared to the Tigers. The Tigers are obviously not a very clean fielding team as a whole, led by their uninspiring infield.

Defensive Runs Saved uses video review to estimate each fielder’s defensive contribution and compares each fielder to the league average for his position. The Tigers' infield defense looks like this:

1B Prince Fielder: -5 runs (386 innings)
2B Ryan Raburn: -2 runs (162 innings)
2B Ramon Santiago: -1 run (132 innings)
2B Danny Worth: -1 run (60 innings)
2B Brandon Inge: -2 runs (43 innings)
3B Miguel Cabrera: -3 runs (388 innings)
SS Jhonny Peralta: -4 runs (348 innings)
SS Ramon Santiago: -1 run (50 innings)

That’s pretty brutal, especially when you consider that this is what the defense looks like a quarter of the way through the season. I mean, oh man, holy tomato sauce, something has to be done here, right? No wonder people punch their mirrors. Looking at yourself is sometimes ugly.

So, what is going to happen going forward?

The Tigers like to be traditional and old school and they like to stick to certain roles for as long as they can. I doubt we’ll be seeing any changes here unless they swing a trade later this summer.

With Delmon Young ousted out of left field thanks to the start of Andy Dirks, the designated hitter position is taken. I don’t think we’ll be seeing Fielder moving to DH and Cabrera to first base, nor do I think that they will do that even if they make a trade.

Peralta was moved to third base when he was with the Indians two years ago due to his lack of range at shortstop. After a big 2011, his offense thus far has been suspect. He’s also about to turn 30 years old and on the final year of his contract.

Raburn's versatility would keep the Tigers from trading him even if he wasn’t hitting .148/.214/.217 through the first two months of the season.

No, I think the Tigers are sticking with what they have. They are going to rely on the hope that their offense eventually clicks, their pitching dominates (i.e., they need to rely even more on strikeout pitchers Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and, apparently, Drew Smyly), and the rest of the AL Central can perform like they did last year and allow Detroit to run away with the division.

Some might ask if that is realistic. Maybe it’s not. But do they really have a choice?

Josh Worn writes about the Tigers at the Walkoff Woodward blog.

OK, I'll give you Justin Verlander.

I'll even give you Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Austin Jackson.

But five through 25? I think I'll take the Cleveland Indians over the Detroit Tigers.

The Indians beat the Tigers 5-3 on Tuesday, even though Ubaldo Jimenez struggled once again with his control. Relief ace Chris Perez, who criticized Indians fans on Saturday for their lack of support (Cleveland is last in the majors in attendance), was greeted with a thunderous ovation as he came in out of the bullpen in the ninth inning. With two runners on, he struck out Cabrera and got Fielder to ground out.

Just another save. "That's the loudest I've ever been cheered here," Perez said. "I was pumped, the adrenaline was going. It could have gone the other way. I came through. I didn't know which way it was going to go. I was thankful it went the good way."

The good way pushed the Indians to 24-18. The Tigers are 20-22, and for the life of me I can't understand why everyone still thinks Detroit is the better team. Mind you, I'm not saying the Indians are better. I just don't see why the Tigers are better. Just because everyone picked them before the season?

Once you get past those big shiny names on the Tigers' roster, if you want to pinpoint one big difference between the two clubs, it's a little statistic that us sabermetric types love: the old base on balls. The Indians lead the American League with 188 walks, 25 more than any other team; the Tigers have 127 walks, ninth in the league. That patience will go a long ways toward giving Cleveland an offense capable of scoring as many runs as Detroit's (the Indians have outscored the Tigers by one run so far, 184 to 183).

In fact, when you go position by position, you'll see what I mean.

Catcher: Carlos Santana versus Alex Avila. So far, Avila has been unable to match 2011's .366 average on balls in play, the sixth-best average in the majors. Which means he's hitting like he did in 2010. Santana, meanwhile, is a walks machine who hit 27 home runs in 2011.

First base: Casey Kotchman versus Prince Fielder. Obvious edge to Fielder, of course. The most interesting thing about his start (.292/.354/.472) is his walk rate is down from 15.5 percent to 8.5 percent. Part of that is he was intentionally walked 32 times a year ago, just three this year.

Second base: Jason Kipnis versus Ramon Santiago/Ryan Raburn. Please. Big edge to Kipnis with Santiago and Raburn both hitting under .200. Will Detroit make a move here?

Third base: Jack Hannahan/Jose Lopez versus Miguel Cabrera. This may be the first and only time you'll see Jose Lopez mentioned in the same breath as Miguel Cabrera. So far, however, this edge has been minimal. Cabrera is hitting .304/.362/.488, Hannahan .287/.365/.436 but with better defense. According to Defensive Runs Saved, Cabrera has cost the Tigers four runs -- worst among third basemen (tied with Hanley Ramirez).

Shortstop: Asdrubal Cabrera versus Jhonny Peralta. With the Indians preaching plate discipline, check out Cabrera: Last year, 44 walks and 119 strikeouts; this year, 18 walks and just 12 strikeouts. He's hitting .309 with an OBP over .400 but hasn't lost any power. In 2011, he swung at 31 percent of the pitches out of the strike but he has cut that down to 24 percent. Small differences can go a long way. Peralta was a big surprise for Detroit last season but hasn't matched the numbers in the plate or in the field.

Left field: Johnny Damon/Shelley Duncan versus Andy Dirks/Delmon Young. Damon has looked terrible. Dirks has looked great, but too early to evaluate this one.

Center field: Michael Brantley versus Austin Jackson. With his defense and hot start at the plate, Jackson has been as valuable as any player in the American League not named Josh Hamilton.

Right field: Shin-Soo Choo versus Brennan Boesch. This one isn't close and that's with Choo off to a middling start in the power department. Choo has a .391 OBP, Boesch a .271 OBP. Choo is a solid defender while Boesch is slow and lumbering. With his poor start at the plate and poor defense, Boesch has been one of the worst regular in baseball so far. Choo is an underrated asset and I love Manny Acta's decision to move him into the leadoff spot.

Designated hitter: Travis Hafner versus field. Cleveland's designated hitters have six homers and .370 OBP (fourth in the league). Detroit's DHs have one home run and a .238 OBP (13th in the league). Big, big edge to Pronk.

Rotation. With the best pitcher on the planet, Detroit's rotation has posted a 3.87 ERA; without the best pitcher on the planet, Cleveland's rotation has posted a 3.94 ERA. Both teams have played 42 games and Cleveland's starters have thrown 12 more innings. Moving forward, maybe you think Detroit's group will perform better. After all, Doug Fister missed some, Max Scherzer just struck out 15 in game (never mind that the Pirates have been an historic strikeout binge of late) and Rick Porcello will put it together one of these years, because everyone says so. Meanwhile, Ubaldo Jimenez can't throw strikes, Justin Masterson hasn't pitched as well as last year and Derek Lowe is doing it with smoke, mirrors and a deal with the devil. The one thing the Cleveland starters do is keep the ball in the park; they've allowed 20 home runs, second-fewest in the league. Look, maybe you think Scherzer will start pitching better; I'd say so will Masterson. Maybe you're a Porcello believer; I'm not, especially with that infield defense behind him. Lowe is a fluke? Well, let's see how Drew Smyly does as the scouting reports get around on him.

Bullpen. Neither pen has been stellar, as Cleveland's 4.16 ERA ranks 13th in the AL and Detroit's 4.76 ranks 14th. Cleveland's top guys, however, have been pretty solid -- Chris Perez is 14 of 15 in save opportunities while Vinnie Pestano, Joe Smith and Nick Hagadone have pitched well. Detroit's top two of Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit, so dominant a year ago, have both struggled to throw strikes.

I said before the season that I believed the Tigers were drastically overrated. On the Baseball Today podcast late in spring training, I predicted Cleveland would win the division. Unfortunately, when ESPN.com published predictions a few days later, I changed my pick to Detroit. I bought into the hype.

I'm not buying any longer. This division is wide, wide open. (And I haven't even mentioned the White Sox!)

PHOTO OF THE DAY

We’re almost a fifth of the way into the season, and many of the expected storylines in both leagues have gotten the usual attention. The East divisions get the attention because both provide full five-team tangles of contenders and pretenders, with heightened expectations raised higher still with the addition of two more wild-card entries this postseason. The NL Central has bad blood and historic rivalries. And the Wests have the L.A. teams riding their respective highs and lows. The Rangers have a pair of pennants. The NL West gives you a surprise team every season.

Who’s missing from all that? The AL Central, and perhaps it’s easy to see why. The division is home to baseball’s two worst teams, the Twins and the Royals, by any standard you might care to measure such things by: record or run differential. Only a simple Pythagorean interpretation of the Royals’ runs scored and allowed gets them out of their duet with the Twins at the very bottom of the majors, but even that might be generous, because however many runs the Royals sporadically get, it’s tough to outscore one of the only two rotations that can’t generate a quality start even a third of the time. And the other starting staff that is that bad? The Twins -- what, you needed to ask? -- even after Scott Diamond’s masterful shutdown of the Angels on Tuesday night.

But you can’t just blame this dud-ly duo at the bottom of the standings. The three teams competing for a playoff slot that’s theirs as a matter of geographical destiny aren’t blowing the league away in the early going. The Indians, White Sox and Tigers are a combined three games over .500, and have a combined run differential of zero. Taken collectively, they’re three teams around .500 that are supposed to be .500.

Now sure, that’s fun with math, because the Indians have slipped out to a modest early lead with their 17-12 start. However, that just echoes last year’s 30-15 season-starting run: Cause for celebrations on the banks of the Cuyahoga, and healthy skepticism everywhere else.

Can the Tribe be taken any more seriously this time around? Maybe if Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Masterson get a handle on their early-season control problems, that would help, but their front five doesn't match up well with the best rotations.

On offense, they’re currently 10th in the American League in ISO or isolated slugging; it’s hard to identify where they’re going to get a major power boost as the season progresses. Johnny Damon hasn’t been a moderately useful power source for an outfield corner or DH since he left the Yankees after 2009. Grady Sizemore would be if and when his latest comeback gets under way. ‘Soon,’ ‘June’ and ‘when the cow jumps over the moon’ all seem like reasonable answers given his track record. Casey Kotchman isn’t hitting; he rarely does.

Which suggests that the Indians’ best fix on offense is currently outside the organization. First base is usually a good spot to find a free agent-to-be on a non-contender and trade for him as a two-month temp at the deadline, but next winter’s crop of free agents at first base is mostly appalling: Aubrey Huff? Carlos Lee? But how about Kevin Youkilis, as Gordon Edes has pointed out? Indians fans can certainly hope, but GM Chris Antonetti doesn’t have a ton to work with.

What of the White Sox? In all their early celebrations over Adam Dunn’s resurrection and A.J. Pierzynski popping a quick five homers, there’s still Gordon Beckham's and Brent Morel's slack bats. Homegrown Dayan Viciedo has fit right into that brand of ghastliness, struggling to post an OPS above .600. And with their whipsawing Chris Sale moving from the rotation to the pen, it’s clear they haven’t entirely figured what they can do with the working parts they do have.

So barring the Indians making some sort of game-changing deal, this really should still be the Tigers’ division to win. That might sound like a declaration of faith in the famous people, but propositions that start with names like Verlander, Miggy or Prince involve happier endings than those that rely on Pronk or Becks.

They aren’t perfect, of course, and a lot of that is because of the rest of Jim Leyland’s crew. I don’t blame you if you’re a Brennan Boesch skeptic -- has any other 27-year-old corner outfielder with a .424 career SLG ever inspired so much faith he’s going to be something more? -- or unconvinced that Delmon Young is ever going to really break out. But eventually Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder and Alex Avila will have more to work with than they have had in the early going.

At least in the rotation Doug Fister’s already back, and if Drew Smyly pans out, maybe he’s the third starter that Max Scherzer hasn’t been or Rick Porcello isn’t ready to be. But it says something that you have to already count on Fister as a sure thing as their No. 2, something nobody would have said about him on anybody’s team a year ago.

This early, though, project them over 162 games and the Tigers still look like the one team in the division with a legit shot at 90 wins. So I’d suggest Tigers fans keep the faith. They may feel letdown by initial expectations that they’d romp from day one, but a couple of long months beating up on the Twins and Royals will help. Barring an in-season overhaul for the Indians, it’s still Detroit’s division to win.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

The shocking thing about Albert Pujols' start, of course, is that if any player seemed immune to a slump it was him.

After all, this is player who ranks eighth all time in career adjusted OPS, behind seven guys named Ruth, Williams, Bonds, Gehrig, Hornsby, Mantle and Brouthers. (Well, maybe you don't know that last guy. That's Dan Brouthers, who played in the 19th century). Pujols never had a bad month. OK, he did twice hit under .250 in a month -- July of 2001, his rookie season, when he hit .241 but still hit four home runs and had a .793 OPS; and last April, when he hit .245 but slugged seven home runs.

But we're now 24 games into the season and Pujols is homerless with a feeble .208/.255/.292 line. I broke down his issues last week, but I wanted to take another approach. Have other all-time great hitters ever gone through a similar spell while still in their prime seasons? I examined seven of the best post-World War II hitters to see.

Stan Musial
April 15-June 12, 1947: 44 games, .202/.298/.345, 5 HR, 23 BB, 13 SO
Musial didn't quite have the power of Pujols but did top 30 home runs six times. Not surprisingly for a guy who hit .300 for the first 16 seasons of his career, he didn't suffer many dry spells. As it turns out, even his slow start in 1947 was caused by bad health -- appendicitis and tonsillitis.

Willie Mays
April 17-May 13, 1956: 22 games, .209/.303/.384, 3 HR, 11 BB, 8 SO
Mays actually went through a few slumps in his career, unusual for hitters of his caliber. Here's one from the start of the 1956 season. Through 42 games he still had just four home runs. Good news for Angels fans: Mays still finished with 36 home runs as he hit six home runs in both June and July, nine in August and 11 in September.

July 3-Aug. 3, 1958: 30 games, .250/.356/.313, 0 HR, 19 BB, 10 SO
Mays went through a long homerless drought in 1958. Before the drought, he missed two games while hospitalized with fatigue. In fact, going back to May, Mays would hit just three home runs over a 65-game stretch. One big difference between this slump and Pujols' slump: Mays had 19 walks and 10 strikeouts while Pujols has six walks and 14 strikeouts. He'd finish the year hitting .347 with 29 home runs.

May 28-June 25, 1959: 27 games, .265/.318/.367, 1 HR, 8 BB, 8 SO
According James Hirsch's "Willie Mays: The Life, the Legend," Mays battled a couple injuries during his span. On June 1, a home-plate collision with Del Rise left him with bruised shins. Rice broke his leg on the play and Mays left the game. Three days later, Mays hurt his shoulder in another home-plate collision. He played for a few days after that but then missed five games, available only to pinch-hit.

Aug. 28-Sept. 30, 1960: 32 games, .288/.343/.400, 0 HR, 9 BB, 10 SO
Mays hit .319 with 20 home runs in 1960, but only a home run on the final day of the season prevented a homerless September. Still, he managed to hit .288 during this power drought.

April 22-May 15, 1963: 22 games, .244/.330/.329, 1 HR, 11 BB, 10 SO
Now 32 -- the same age as Pujols -- Mays appeared to have just had a slow stretch soon after the season began. He'd still finish with a .314 average and 38 home runs and finish fifth in the MVP vote. Best-case scenario for Pujols?

June 24-July 31, 1965: 22 games, .223/.289/301, 2 HR, 10 BB, 11 SO
One final slump for Mays, but this one was another injury-related one. According to Hirsch's book, Mays pulled groin muscle on June 30 and then bruised his thigh and hip in a home-plate collision on July 10 that forced him to leave the game. Nonetheless, he'd still end up with one of his greatest seasons: a career-high 52 home runs and his second MVP trophy.

Hank Aaron
June 1-June 25, 1956: 28 games, .227/.277/.327, 1 HR, 8 BB, 10 SO
Few players matched the Aaron's consistency. This was just his second full season, still 22 years old. He'd end up winning the batting title that year with a .328 mark.

April 25-May 28, 1958: 31 games, .208/.288/.320 1 HR, 14 BB, 14 SO
Despite this dry spell, Aaron would finish at .326 with 30 home runs.

May 2-June 9, 1968: 32 games, .179/.268/.325, 3 HR, 16 BB, 15 SO
Aaron was 34 by now and 1968 was the famous Year of the Pitcher. Aaron would recover to hit .287 with 29 home runs -- big numbers for that season, as he ranked fifth in the NL in home runs.

Barry Bonds
April 8-May 19, 1991: 31 games, .182/.272/.255, 2 HR, 14 BB, 21 SO

I checked Bonds from 1990 to 1999, and this was the only bad stretch he had. It was likely caused by a bruised thumb that did force him to miss four games in early April and took time to heal.

July 28-Sept. 1, 1995: 33 games, .208/.386/.396, 4 HR, 28 BB, 25 SO
Here's another low-average stretch for Bonds, but even then he hit a few home runs and drew 28 walks in 33 games. Again, that's one big problem Pujols is having: his walk rate has declined significantly.

Manny Ramirez
Sept. 1995: .247/.314/.333, 1 HR in 24 games
Not too many bad months for Ramirez. This one came at the end of his first full season in the majors.

April 2007: 24 games, .202/.314/.315, 2 HR, 15 BB, 15 SO
Another slow stretch. Ramirez would finish with a .296 average and 20 home runs in 133 games.

Alex Rodriguez
Sept. 1999: .183, but seven home runs
June 1-June 26, 2006: 22 games, .213/.351/.325, 2 HR, 15 BB, 24 SO
July 26-August 20, 2010: 20 games, .195/.241/.416, 5 HR, 5 BB, 18 SO

A-Rod has had a few low-average periods in his career, but has usually kept his power intact. That poor 2010 stretch includes various ailments -- hip flexor tendinitis, a bruised shin and a strained calf muscle.

Miguel Cabrera
August 2007: .229/.345/.448, five home runs

Cabrera has essentially been slump-proof so far. This is the worst month on his record and it was still a big spike compared to what Pujols has done.

Why does this all mean? I guess there is enough anecdotal evidence here that even superstar hitters in the prime (or very near their prime) can still have rough stretches for 20-plus games. Look, Pujols isn't going to turn into a .220 hitter overnight. Yes, he's undoubtedly hit into some bad luck so far. Maybe like Willie Mays in 1963 or 1965 he can suffer through this slump and still put up MVP numbers. Hey, it's one reason we watch. Because we don't really know, do we?

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

Sometimes the analysis is pretty easy.

The Detroit Tigers' lineup on Sunday featured 31-year-old minor league veteran Brad Eldred, who last played regularly in the majors in 2005, hitting fifth. He was followed by Ryan Raburn, Ramon Santiago, Gerald Laird and Danny Worth. You're not going to beat CC Sabathia with that group.

In recent days, Tigers relievers have included Luke Putkonen, Collin Balester, Brayan Villarreal and Thad Weber. Who? Villarreal was the losing pitcher on Friday night versus the New York Yankees.

On Sunday, Max Scherzer walked seven batters in a 6-2 loss to the Yankees. Earlier in the week he got hit around by the Mariners. His ERA is 7.77 and he has yet to pitch more than six innings in any of his five starts.

In 2011, Rick Porcello ranked 84th among 93 qualified pitchers in ERA. Still, many projected a breakout season. Good stuff, they say, good hard sinker. So far, it has been the same Porcello: A lot of hits allowed and not many strikeouts. Two starts ago against the Texas Rangers, he got three outs and gave up 10 hits and nine runs. Against the Seattle Mariners, he gave up five runs and two home runs. He has a 6.45 ERA.

With Doug Fister on the disabled list, rookie Adam Wilk made three starts, losing all three and allowing 21 hits in 11 innings.

Despite batting in front of Miguel Cabrera, No. 2 hitter Brennan Boesch is hitting .231 and has just two walks with 20 strikeouts.

Prince Fielder is finding the pitching a little tougher in the American League. After homering twice against the Boston Red Sox in the second game of the season, he didn't homer again until Sunday.

Left fielder/designated hitter Delmon Young was placed on the restricted list after getting arrested on Friday for allegedly attacking a man in front of a Manhattan hotel and yelling anti-Semitic remarks.

Closer Jose Valverde and setup man Joaquin Benoit hardly look like the dominant duo of a year ago, having allowed 23 hits and 16 walks in 19 innings.

Listening to the Tigers' local radio broadcast the other day, the announcers described the team's energy as listless.

And then there's the defense. Entering Sunday, the Tigers ranked 26th in the majors in defensive runs saved, at 13 runs below average. It's not all Cabrera's fault. He's at minus-2, but Jhonny Peralta is minus-4 at shortstop, Fielder minus-3 at first base, Boesch minus-3 in right field and Raburn minus-2 at second base. The totals should not be surprising as none of them have a reputation for being good defensive players.

That 4-0 start seems like a long time ago to Tigers fans. After starting 9-3, the Tigers have gone 2-8, they've been outscored by 10 runs on the season and their flaws have been exposed like a leaky pipe -- drip, drip, drip, a slow understanding that something isn't right. Detroit doesn't appear to be the super team it looked the first week of the season, but rather a team with little depth in the bullpen, a starting rotation that is relying too heavily on Justin Verlander, poor defense, and a lineup that needs Alex Avila and Peralta to start hitting.

Leyland showed some frustration after Sunday's loss, telling MLB.com that a crucial 2-2 pitch to Derek Jeter that he checked his swing on and was called a ball wasn't a bad call, even though catcher Laird said Scherzer hit his target. "That's all excuse stuff," Leyland said. "That Jeter pitch was a close pitch, but when you're that wild, you're not going to get close pitches."

Instead of escaping the inning, Scherzer allowed two more runs and he ended up throwing 119 pitches without getting out of the fifth inning. "Max is a huge key for us. It has to get better, plain and simple," Leyland said.

Is this a bad time to mention that all 50 ESPN.com voters in our preseason predictions file picked the Tigers to win the AL Central? Obviously, that cast the Tigers as overwhelming favorites to win the division. I was one of those 50, although I hesitated, even once saying on the "Baseball Today" podcast that I was going to pick Cleveland to win the division, before changing my mind when I had to submit my vote.

OK, it's just 22 games and the Tigers are only one game out of first place in the AL Central, a division that has been collectively outscored by 63 runs so far. Rookie lefty Drew Smyly has been impressive. That still makes the Tigers the heavy favorite in this field of five.

If you want other good news, according to our RPI standings, the Tigers have also played the fourth-toughest schedule in the majors so far. The next month presents a schedule that could prove much kinder: Kansas City, the White Sox, at Seattle, at Oakland, at the White Sox, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, at Cleveland, at Minnesota. Tigers fans will undoubtedly point out that Detroit was 25-26 as late as May 29 a year ago, and tied for first as late as July 20, before finishing with a 38-16 kick over the final two months. That surge coincided with Fister's arrival from Seattle, as he went 8-1 with a 1.79 ERA. Fister threw a bullpen session on Thursday and will make his first rehab start on Wednesday in Toledo, as he returns from a strained rib cage muscle.

Still, the Tigers will need more than Fister's return. They need Scherzer and Porcello to pitch better. They need a reliable arm in the bullpen besides Octavio Dotel. They need Fielder to start slugging. They need the defense to help out the pitchers a little more. Young? Ahh, he's not that good anyway.

In the end, I see an imperfect team, certainly not one that will win 100 games or even 95. I see a good team in a weak division, but a team that could easily finish fifth in the AL East. I see a team that is ripe for a surprise pennant race if one of their division rivals puts it together.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

First base: Mr Enigmatic. Is Max Scherzer a good pitcher? A mediocre pitcher? A potentially great pitcher? Last October, in Game 2 of the American League Division Series, we saw how good Scherzer can be when he pitched six scoreless innings, using an explosive, moving fastball to throttle the Yankees. And there he was two starts later in the American League Championship Series against the Rangers, getting knocked out in the third inning. One reason so many people predicted the Tigers to run away with the AL Central is they penciled in improvement for Scherzer and Rick Porcello. I wasn't quite so sure; both have maddeningly inconsistent in their young careers and it's been mostly bad Scherzer in 2012. The punchless Mariners roughed him up Tuesday for 10 hits and five runs in five innings, bumping his ERA to 8.24. Frankly, I can't figure him out. He has a nice 23/6 strikeout-to-walk but has allowed 30 hits in 19.2 innings. Unlucky on balls in play? Sure, probably. Mix in a little Miggy Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Jhonny Peralta as well. But it was similar last season, when he posted a 4.43 ERA: Good ratios, but too many hits and too many home runs (29). Coming on the heels of Porcello's one-inning stinker, the Detroit rotation after Justin Verlander remains a work in progress.

Second base: Narveson out for season. Tough day for pitchers, as Michael Pineda will get another opinion on his shoulder and Mike Pelfrey went on the disabled list with elbow inflammation and possibly worse. Brewers starter Chris Narveson, however, is done for the season after it was announced he'll undergo rotator cuff surgery. Narveson was a solid fifth last season, but Marco Estrada is a nice replacement -- maybe even a step up. A fastball/curve/changeup guy, the Nationals originally drafted Estrada but never quite believed in him since his fastball is 90-91, and the Brewers picked him up on waivers in 2010. He pitched well last season, including a 3.70 ERA in seven spot starts, and threw well last week with five innings of one-run ball, with nine strikeouts and no walks against the Rockies. He isn't flashy, but he throws strikes and should be solid. We talk a lot about the need for rotation depth. Estrada will end up being a key to the Brewers' season.

Third base: CarGo-es deep. The Rockies lost 5-4 to the Pirates as the bullpen blew a lead in the eighth inning but the good news was Carlos Gonzalez finally hit his first two home runs, improving his triple-slash line to .278/.328/.500 (he raised his average 38 points and his slugging percentage 140 points in one night). Nice, but the Rockies will need more ... like 2010 more, when Gonzalez led the National League with a .336 average, slugged .598 and finished third in the MVP vote. That season was built on a .384 average on balls in play, third-best in the majors. His BABIP returned to more normal levels last season and his numbers fell. Gonzalez did start out slow last April (.228, one homer) before heating up in May and June, only to come down with a wrist injury in July that he aggravated again in September. Hopefully this is a sign the wrist is completely healthy and he'll start heating up.

Tweet of the night. A's rookie lefty Tom Milone improved to 3-1 with a 2.00 ERA with eight shutout innings against the White Sox.

His tweeting is boring as all get out but @tommymilone_57 is one hell of a pitcher. Outstanding.

— Brandon McCarthy (@BMcCarthy32) April 25, 2012

It's only 10 games, so take in these numbers with small sample size caveats.

When the Detroit Tigers signed Prince Fielder, many people talked about how Fielder will protect Cabrera, presumably meaning Cabrera will get more pitches to hit (and thus walk less).

Well ... Cabrera is currently in the midst of a hitless string of 21 at-bats. Cabrera went more than two games without a hit just once last year and that was three games. Also interesting to note:

2012 walk rate: 15.9 percent
2011 walk rate: 15.7 percent

Also of interest, Fielder, the guy without the other MVP candidate batting behind him:

2012 walk rate: 9.3 percent
2011 walk rate: 15.5 percent

Monday’s Baseball Today podcast was taped with the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays playing a morning game in the background, but the big story in Beantown wasn’t the game, as Mark Simon and I discussed.

1. What was Bobby Valentine thinking calling out Kevin Youkilis? You know, I still can’t figure it out, but it doesn’t bode well for the future. Plus, we analyze the Jacoby Ellsbury injury and Cody Ross filling in. Can the Red Sox overcome?

2. It’s Power Rankings day! Are the Red Sox in the top 10? Are the Phillies? And where will Mark jump the streaking Los Angeles Dodgers?

3. How can the San Francisco Giants lose an All-Star closer and still be contenders? We explain, but we believe.

4. Mark gets us going with the first Leaderboard of the Week segment discussing an unlikely power source pacing the league in well-hit average.

5. Our emailers want to talk about the best announcers, Miguel Cabrera and the chalk line, and intentional walks!

So download and listen to Monday’s excellent Baseball Today podcast, and get ready for another fine show on Tuesday!

It would be easy to pile on the Boston Red Sox right now. Rip apart the bullpen. Mock all those who said Jonathan Papelbon wasn't worth $50 million. Make fun of Bobby Valentine or Red Sox Nation already being thrown into a fit of worry. Or just suggest that they bring back fried chicken and beer to the clubhouse.

But the more reasoned response: It's just three games. Three painful losses, but still just three losses. The Phillies won 102 games in 2011 and had four streaks of at least three losses, including an eight-game streak. The Yankees won the AL with 97 wins and had six streaks of at least three losses in a row. So let's not overreact just yet.

Instead, let's give credit to the Detroit Tigers. They capped a series sweep of Boston with a stunning 13-12 victory on Sunday, a game featuring 35 hits, 391 pitches, 13 pitchers and two gigantic blown saves by Alfredo Aceves and Mark Melancon. After hitting his dramatic walk-off home run in the 11th inning, Tigers catcher Alex Avila summed up the wild contest: "You don't see those kinds of games at this level very often. There's really no rhyme or reason or explanation for it."

The Tigers aren't a three-man team. They weren't a two-man team a year ago. And while Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder could prove to be one of the most lethal offensive duos we've seen in several years, Avila could prove to be a deadly third weapon in the order. Avila mostly flew under the national radar last season, although he was voted in as the All-Star starter. His .295/.389/.506 line wasn't superb just for a catcher -- he ranked fifth in the AL in on-base percentage and eighth in OPS. Despite that, Jim Leyland kept Avila in the bottom of the order most of the season, with most of his starts (61) coming in the eighth spot. On Opening Day, Avila hit eighth. He's been sixth the past two games. I don't think he'll be headed back to the bottom of the lineup any time soon.

Against Melancon, Avila fouled off a 2-2 fastball and then smoked a curveball just over the fence in right field. "Hanging curveball," Melancon told reporters after the game. "It was a hanger and he hit it out.''

Avila is a key to the Detroit lineup. As good as the Cabrera-Fielder combo is, they need production from other spots. Leadoff hitter Austin Jackson is off to a blazing start with a .571 average, but his OBP a year ago was just .317, a reason the Tigers ranked just 24th in leadoff OBP. No. 5 hitter Delmon Young is another hitter with historically low OBP issues, just .302 a year ago and .321 career. He may drive in 100 runs by mistake hitting after Cabrera and Fielder, but he projects as one of the weaker No. 5 hitters in the league.

That puts pressure on Avila in the No. 6 spot. Assuming he stays there, he'll also get a lot of RBI opportunities. He's patient and grinds at-bats -- he had two walks as well on Sunday. He'll likely face a lot of situational lefties late in games; he held his own against left-handers a year ago (.273) but isn't as dangerous against same-side hurlers. But that's a small nitpick. He's solid behind the plate (threw out 32 percent of base stealers in 2011) and if he produces like 2011, you'll start seeing Avila mentioned more on a national scale: As maybe the best catcher in the game, in the same breath as guys like Joe Mauer, Brian McCann, Buster Posey and Yadier Molina.

This is what will have American League pitchers and managers waking up in cold sweats all season long: Those stretches when Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder are both raking, eyes bulging as they pummel meaty fastballs over fences and into outfield seats.

Josh Beckett become the first pitcher to experience these forces of nature in action, as both hit two home runs off him in Detroit's 10-0 victory Saturday over Boston. Fielder hit one out to left field and a low, screaming bullet to right for his pair. Going the opposite way is nothing new for him; 11 of his 38 home runs in 2011 went to left or left-center. There were some concerns that Fielder would lose a few home runs moving from Miller Park to the more spacious environs of Comerica, so hitting one out to left is a good, early sign.

How dynamic is this pair? A season ago, Fielder hit .299/.415/.566 with 38 home runs; Cabrera hit .344/.448/.586 with 30 home runs. The last team with two players to hit 30 home runs with a .400 OBP? The 2006 Red Sox with Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz. Twelve teams since 2000 have had such a duo (or in the case of the 2004 Cardinals, three players):

2006 Red Sox: Ramirez, Ortiz
2005 Yankees: Alex Rodriguez, Jason Giambi
2004 Cardinals: Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen
2003 Yankees: Giambi, Jorge Posada
2002 Astros: Jeff Bagwell, Lance Berkman
2001 Rockies: Todd Helton, Larry Walker
2001 Cardinals: Pujols, Edmonds
2000 Cardinals: Edmonds, Mark McGwire
2000 Angels: Tim Salmon, Troy Glaus
2000 Astros: Bagwell, Moises Alou
2000 Mariners: Rodriguez, Edgar Martinez
2000 Giants: Barry Bonds, Jeff Kent

Of course, all of those pairs or threesomes did this during the high-offense steroids period. Six other teammates did it between 1995 and 1999. But before that? That previous team to have two such players was the 1969 Oakland A's with Reggie Jackson and Sal Bando. Throughout baseball history there have been only 34 such pairs. Here's another way to do this. Let's add OPS+ (adjusted on-base plus slugging percentage) as a third measuring stick. OPS+ adjusts a player's offensive production for home park and era. In 2011, Cabrera's OPS+ was 181, second in the American League. Fielder's was 164, fourth in the National League. Let's set a minimum of 30 home runs, .400 OBP and 150 OPS+.

This takes away some of steroids-era pairs and leaves us with 24 such teammates in baseball history. And six of those 24 were Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig.

And that, my readers, is the kind of company Cabrera and Fielder have the chance to join.

A few more notes from today's early games:

• Beckett served up five home runs, sending waves of sweats and swears throughout Red Sox Nation. He became just the fourth pitcher to allow five homers twice in his career, joining Tim Wakefield, Pat Hentgen and Jeff Weaver. Gordon Edes had a good piece on Beckett before his season debut, detailing his motivation for 2012. Beckett is a bit of an enigma, a guy usually viewed as an ace due to his postseason heroics with the Red Sox in 2007 and Marlins in 2003. But the facts also don't lie: He's finished in the top 10 in his league in ERA only twice, including last season with a 2.89 mark. Beckett has been homer-prone at various stages of his career, most notably in his first season with Boston, in 2006, when he gave up 36. It's only one start, of course, but considering the spring training thumb injury he insisted wasn't an injury, it puts Beckett on the early "keep an eye on him" watch list.
• Angels manager Mike Scioscia picked Game No. 2 to get disgruntled Bobby Abreu in the lineup, putting Abreu in left and moving Vernon Wells to center, sitting defensive whiz Peter Bourjos in the process. "I'm not calling this a day off for Peter, it's the second game, but it's a combination of that and trying to get some left-handed bats in the lineup," Scioscia told Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles. I can't imagine a more defensively challenged outfield pair than those two. Unable to see this game since I had the Red Sox-Tigers game as my local Fox broadcast, I tweeted Angels and Royals fans to ask how many of the 11 hits Dan Haren allowed fell just out of their reach. The consensus seemed to be two or three, although @dblesky wrote, "There were really only a couple. And one was glaring." It will be interesting to see how often Scioscia runs out this lineup, essentially to placate Abreu. I just don't see the Angels being a better team with that alignment and Bourjos on the bench.
• Zack Greinke had a dominant effort in the Brewers' 6-0 shutout over the Cardinals, allowing three hits in seven innings with no walks and seven strikeouts. I wrote this before the game, but here's why Greinke is a good Cy Young pick. Especially impressive were Greinke's economical 91 pitches.
• Tweet of the day after Daniel Hudson and the Diamondbacks beat the Giants for the second consecutive game:
  

  Good way to start the season. Two mistakes and I paid for it. But a win is a win. #sweepthegiants tomorrow! #GoDbacks
  
  — Daniel Hudson (@DHuddy41) April 7, 2012

• Paul Lukas has his annual new uniform review. We all know about the Marlins' makeover, but there many others changes, patches and throwbacks to check out.
• How often do Opening Day lineups turn over? Diane Firstman, with help from Baseball-Reference.com, has a couple fascinating charts that show how rapidly teams do go through players.
• Here's the daily roundup from You Can't Predict Baseball. They do this every day, and it's full of interesting tidbits.
• Jerry Crasnick reports on a positive start to 2012 for Stephen Strasburg.
• It was a big win for the Tigers, even if Justin Verlander didn't get the win. And Miguel Cabrera actually caught a foul pop fly!
• Stephanie Lisco is already losing faith in the Indians after the 16-inning debacle.
• Bill Baer breaks down Roy Halladay's Opening Day gem. Halladay's Game Score of 83 was the best of his 10 career Opening Day starts.
• Kerry Wood might have been squeezed by the umpire, but it was still a tough loss for the Cubs.
• Tommy Hanson slightly altered his mechanics this spring, and Ben Duronio examines how Hanson's release point in Thursday's opener compared to 2011.
• The Dodgers won despite Clayton Kershaw leaving early with a case of the flu.
• Tim Lincecum starts tonight. Last year, he threw more sliders than ever, but ditched the pitch in spring training and has said he won't use it early in the season. Chris Quick with a look at what to expect from Lincecum and the Giants on Opening Day.
• So Michael Pineda wasn't throwing hard? Jon Shields writes about another pitcher with diminished velocity so far: Felix Hernandez. With much less hype, King Felix has been hovering at 90 mph with his fastball -- including during the season opener in Japan. Hernandez starts again on Saturday.
• Will Albert Pujols begin his season with a Royal conquest?
• What is the perfect Josh Hamilton contract? Prashanth Francis examines a question that will hover over the Rangers all season.
• Ryan Topp with five ways the Brewers can squeeze a few wins out of their roster.
• Which team can be this year's Arizona Diamondbacks? ESPN Insider Ben Lindbergh points to the Royals, Mariners and Pirates as the best possibilities.
• Dan Szymborski has his list of the five worst roster decisions, including the Nationals going with Ross Detwiler in the rotation.
• It was Opening Day in the minors as well. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus has a roundup. (Bryce Harper went 2-for-4 in his Triple-A debut, with a double and stolen base.)

We ended the week with Friday's Baseball Today podcast as ESPN analyst Doug Glanville joined me and Mark Simon for fun and shenanigans, while also discussing Thursday’s games.

1. Not only can Glanville wax poetic about pitchers and defense and youth baseball, but he’s a French toast connoisseur!

2. The theme of Thursday’s baseball was obviously the terrific starting pitching, but we also discuss relief usage and the great Omar Vizquel.

3. Emailers chime in with more thoughts about strange uses for baseball ballparks, as well as thoughts on Miami’s new home and players appearing in the most games in a season.

4. Mark and I pick teams for yet another draft, choosing which teams will win the most games this season. Which side do you like? Listen and check the results on our show home page!

5. With a big weekend of baseball pending, we preview the big series and tell you where you can find baseball on ESPN and ESPN Radio!

So download and listen to Friday’s excellent Baseball Today podcast, and enjoy your baseball this weekend!

Some quick bullet points on our third Opening Day/night of the season:

1. A day of aces. Justin Verlander, Roy Halladay, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, Ricky Romero, Justin Masterson ... I think we may see some low-scoring games today. Strasburg's start in Chicago will be especially interesting. After his impressive return last September, his spring training numbers were mediocre (not that you can read too much into that).

2. Red Sox closer situation. Bobby Valentine named Alfredo Aceves his closer. The most interesting thing here is to see how Valentine employs him. Much of Aceves' value a year ago was that he wasn't just a one-inning guy. The Red Sox are carrying 13 pitchers, but you wonder if Valentine will try and use Mark Melancon and Aceves to get more than six outs if Boston has a lead and the starter has to come out.

3. Johan Santana making his first start since Sept. 2, 2010. If he gives the Mets 30 ace-level starts, can they become surprise contenders in a tough division? (My Mets friends say: No.)

4. The revamped Citi Field dimensions. We saw all the space in Marlins Park last night. The Mets went the opposite direction, moving the fences in. How much will that affect home runs?

5. Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. How will Cabrera handle third base? Is there any truth to the belief that Fielder will "protect" Cabrera? He did receive 22 intentional walks last year, so in theory that number may decrease.

I can't wait for the season to get going. You can't wait. Last October was the best we've had in years, and the offseason only fueled our baseball fever. Spring training is mercifully over. Let the games begin. Here are 100 reasons I'm pumped for the next seven months.

1. Albert Pujols in Anaheim. They call him The Machine, but Pujols had a few rusty bolts in 2011. He hit under .300 for the first time, his walk rate was down, and his extra-base-hit percentage was down. After a slow start through May (.267, nine home runs), he did hit much better after returning from his fractured forearm. He moves to a tougher division and will have to face the Rangers, A's and Mariners 19 times each -- with cavernous parks in Oakland and Seattle -- rather than the Cubs, Pirates and Astros. The pressure is on. The spotlight is bright. But machines are immune to all that, right?

2. Jim Thome's pursuit of a World Series title. He'll turn 42 in August and will play some first base until Ryan Howard returns. That's a pretty good story in itself (he hasn't played on the field since appearing in one game at first in 2008), but he's played in nine postseasons and reached two World Series without winning it all.

3. Jamie Moyer is back in the majors at age 49 and can surpass Jack Quinn as the oldest pitcher to win a game. Moyer's arsenal these days: an 80 mph fastball, a 70 mph changeup, a 65 mph curveball, a 55 mph slowball, a 20 mph Bugs Bunny ball and an 8 mph retirement community ball that bends time.

4. Justin Verlander's encore performance. Verlander threw 3,941 pitches in the regular season, the most since Livan Hernandez's 4,007 in 2005. Verlander added 360 more in the postseason. It's not necessarily a big deal -- Verlander's 2009 total is the third-highest since 2005 -- but you do wonder whether Jim Leyland will back off a little.

5. Roy Halladay's paintbrush.

6. Yu Darvish.

7. Yu Darvish's hair. Straight from Supercuts.

8. Adam Wainwright's return to the Cardinals' rotation. He was third in the 2009 NL Cy Young vote and second in 2010. He looked good this spring, pitching 18 2/3 innings and allowing just 11 hits. The strikeout rate wasn't great -- just nine K's -- but signs are positive a year after Tommy John surgery.

9. A full season of Stephen Strasburg, who was electric in his own return in September from TJ surgery in September 2010 -- his fastball averaged 95.8 mph, below the 97.3 he averaged in 2010 but still with enough velocity that it would have ranked No. 1 among starting pitchers. The big question for his season: How much the Nationals will limit his innings?

10. Jose Canseco's tweets.

11. Clayton Kershaw's slider. His fastball isn't too shabby, either. By the way, here's what Kershaw does in the offseason to stay in shape and get ready for the season.

12. Verlander, Halladay, Kershaw: three of the amazing generation of pitchers we get to enjoy. Maybe Darvish and Strasburg will join them. In 2011, 14 pitchers pitched at least 200 innings with an ERA of 3.00 or less. The last time we had even 10 such pitchers in one season was 1997, with 11. The last season with more than 14 was 1992, with 20. Yes, steroids are a small part of that. A small part. The best pitchers today are throwing harder and with meaner breaking stuff than we've ever seen. Guys like Kershaw and Halladay are relentless in their workout routines. It's not a lot of fun to be a hitter these days.

13. Well, Jose Bautista has a lot of fun.

14. A new generation of young hitters like Giancarlo Stanton, Eric Hosmer, Brett Lawrie, Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Starlin Castro and Jesus Montero. All will play their age-22 seasons in 2012.

15. Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez.

16. Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.

17. Will Cabrera win his first MVP award? He's finished fifth in the voting three times, fourth once and second once. Two things that could prevent him from winning:

A. Austin Jackson's on-base percentage. Cabrera hit .388 with runners in scoring position in 2011 but drove in "just" 105 runs.
B. Fielder. Batting behind Cabrera and his .400-plus OBP will give Fielder more RBI opportunities. If he ends up driving in 15 to 20 more runs than Cabrera, they could split votes.

Five other all-time greats who have never won an MVP award: Derek Jeter, Eddie Murray, Mike Piazza, Al Kaline, Manny Ramirez.

18. Cabrera playing third base. With Fielder at first base, the Tigers could have the worst first baseman and worst third baseman in baseball. (And, please, don't defend Fielder's defensive prowess at first base. He's better than Adam Dunn, I suppose ... but Dunn is a DH.)

19. Defensive runs saved!

Your leaders by position in 2011:

C -- Matt Wieters
1B -- Adrian Gonzalez
2B -- Ben Zobrist
3B -- Evan Longoria
SS -- Brendan Ryan
LF -- Brett Gardner
CF -- Austin Jackson
RF -- Jason Heyward

20. The Sandman.

21. The fans in Milwaukee. The Brewers drew a franchise-record 3.071 million fans in 2011. Depressed over losing Fielder? Hardly. They'll surpass that in 2012.

(Read full post)

The SweetSpot network bloggers have weighed in and Miguel Cabrera is their preseason prediction for AL MVP. While Cabrera collected 17 of 38 first-place votes and Albert Pujols just four, the final points total was close as Pujols picked up more second- and third-place votes. Cabrera has finished in the top five of MVP voting five times in his career with his highest result a second-place finish in 2010. Evan Longoria collected the second-most first-place votes to place third in the voting. The blog network apparently doesn't foresee repeat performances from Justin Verlander and Jacoby Ellsbury, last season's top two finishers in the MVP vote, as neither finished in the top 10.

Points on a 14-9-8-7-6 basis.