SweetSpot: Mitchell Boggs

Mike NapoliSteve Mitchell/US PresswireMike Napoli's three-run blast put the game out of reach as Texas tied up the Series at two games.
ARLINGTON, Texas -- "Na-po-li! Na-po-li! Na-po-li!"

The chants begin every time Texas Rangers catcher Mike Napoli steps up to the plate, ringing around Rangers Ballpark in a crescendo, almost willing the bearded slugger to hit one out.

He did. He attacked a first-pitch fastball from Mitchell Boggs, and clubbed it 392 feet or so down the left-field line, in the vicinity of where Albert Pujols' mammoth home run landed the night before. Napoli’s three-run shot gave the Rangers a 4-0 lead in the sixth inning, and the score wouldn't change as they rode Derek Holland's left arm to a victory over the St. Louis Cardinals. The World Series is now tied at two wins apiece.

While Holland delivered one of the best World Series starts in the past 40 years, the game's key moment was Napoli's home run and the big question: Why was Boggs, the Cardinals' 11th or 12th man on the staff, in the game at such a pivotal situation?

The easy answer is because Edwin Jackson had just walked his sixth and seventh batters of the game, becoming just the 15th pitcher to walk at least seven in a World Series game. He’d thrown 109 pitches, so it was time for Tony La Russa to go to the bullpen.

But that doesn’t explain why Boggs was the man La Russa brought in. Boggs is a serviceable middle reliever, the kind of pitcher you use to mop-up defeats or use in blowouts. At his best, he has a good sinker, but he hadn’t been used in a so-called high-leverage situation since Aug. 7. It certainly isn’t the game situation La Russa would normally bring in Boggs.

But was there another good option? Lance Lynn had thrown 47 pitches in Game 3 and was essentially unavailable. Fernando Salas had thrown just 15 pitches but looked tired and didn’t pitch well. That left La Russa with essentially three options:

(A) Boggs. He’d thrown six pitches in a scoreless inning in Game 3, but his overall line in the postseason was six innings, eight hits, two walks and two strikeouts. He’s not a big strikeout guy, but his ground ball percentage in the regular season was 52 percent, giving La Russa a decent chance at a double play.

(B) Marc Rzepczynski. He hadn’t pitched in Game 3. He’s not just a left-handed specialist, and while Napoli crushed lefties and righties equally this season, you can understand why La Russa would be hesitant to use the left-hander. In retrospect, maybe La Russa should have brought him in to face David Murphy, after Jackson had walked his sixth batter of the game.

(C) Octavio Dotel. He had thrown 23 pitches in Game 3. Do you burn your top set-up guy while down 1-0 in the sixth? Certainly, with the way Holland was pitching, you couldn’t afford to give up any more runs.

It was a tough call, but I probably would have gone with Rzepczynski. Boggs is not the guy you want to trust in a key situation if you can avoid it. With the small luxury of a 2-1 series lead, La Russa could be a little more cognizant of not blowing out his bullpen, so the reluctance to avoid Dotel was understandable.

"I thought for sure that Jackson had given us what he had," La Russa said after the game. "Boggs went in and as you saw the rest of the time, he gets a ball down in the zone and I thought, Double play waiting to happen. He made the first pitch and (Napoli) jumped it."

Napoli is usually one of the more patient hitters around. Of his 30 home runs in the regular season, only three came on the first pitch. He also loves high fastballs; according to ESPN Stats & Information, Napoli's 12 home runs on high fastballs led the majors this season. After the game, he said he knew Boggs had a good sinker and would be trying to get a double-play ball. "I was looking for something up," he said.

He got it. Boggs threw a high fastball, Napoli turned on it and crushed it down the line. Asked about hitting high fastballs, Napoli smiled in his postgame media session: "It's a good pitch to hit. Better than a sinking fastball down and away."

Napoli was also a key part on the other end of the the Rangers' victory: helping guide Holland through a dominant performance.

* * * *


Holland set the tone in the top of the first inning. After Adrian Beltre made a beautiful snare of Rafael Furcal's line drive, he struck out Allen Craig and got Pujols on an easy 6-3 groundout: 11 pitches, eight for strikes, a pattern he'd keep up all night. He worked off his explosive 94-mph fastball, but mixed in more off-speed pitches than normal, and especially effective getting his slider inside to right-handed hitters. He worked quickly, getting the return throw from Napoli and going immediately to work on the next pitch.

I loved the decision to go after Pujols: No matter how great a hitter is, you can't afford to give a guy four walks a game, like many fans wanted to see. (In our pregame Cover It Live, many Rangers fans were imploring not to give Pujols anything to hit.) That's just too many free bases to give away. Pitching to Pujols with the bases empty, of course, made it a little easier.

Holland and Napoli were in sync all night. "We both have a strong chemistry with each other," Holland said. "We hang out off the field, on the field. We talk all the time and pick each other's brains and talk about our approach to certain hitters and what to do. He does a really good job of controlling my emotions, making sure I don't get ahead of myself. You probably saw a couple times tonight he was telling me to square up."

When Holland left the dugout to begin the ninth, the crowd gave him a huge ovation. When he walked Furcal with one out -- his 116th pitch of the game -- Ron Washington received some boos as he strolled out from the Rangers' dugout. During a long conference, there were scattered chants of "Leave him in, leave him in," but Washington went to Neftali Feliz.

"He told me he can get the ground-ball double play," Washington said, "and I told him I knew he can ... but I'm going to Nefti." Washington did admit that Holland begged to stay in the game and joked that "I just told him that if you want to stay out here, get on your knees."

It was the first World Series start of at least eight innings where a pitcher allowed two hits or fewer since Detroit's Kenny Rogers did it in 2006. It was just the sixth such start since 1972. (The others: Roger Clemens, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux and Jose Rijo. Pretty good company.)

* * * *
  • It got a little nerve-wracking for the Rangers when Feliz entered and walked Craig. He got Pujols to line out to center on an 0-2 pitch for the second out, but then fell behind Matt Holliday with three balls. Feliz was one ball from bringing the tying run to the plate, but he fought back to get Holliday swinging on some 99-mph cheese.
  • Napoli's home run doesn't cover up the fact that the Rangers are still batting the guy who led the team in OPS eighth in the order. Yes, Washington took his best hitter and has moved from his sixth to seventh to eighth in the postseason. No, it doesn't make sense. Washington's rationale for Game 4 was to break up his two lefties, Murphy and Mitch Moreland. Which sort of makes sense, until you consider that Washington usually hits for Murphy with Craig Gentry against left-handers anyway in key situations.
  • Moreland was back in the lineup at first base, but didn't look good in going 0-for-4. It will be interesting to see who gets the first base/DH starts for Game 5. Moreland's glove isn't that much of an edge over Michael Young to demand a starting position, but the other DH option is ... Yorvit Torrealba. Maybe it's time for an Endy Chavez sighting!
  • The one lineup dilemma for Tony La Russa is whether to give center fielder Jon Jay a day off. Jay is hitless in the series at 0-for-14, hasn't drawn a walk and isn't making good contact. He's 2-for-30 since a three-hit game in Game 2 of the NLCS. Trouble is, La Russa's only other center-field option is Skip Schumaker, but he's also a left-handed bat and just a .210 career hitter against lefties. I suspect Jay will be out there, but don't be surprised if La Russa pinch-hit early if he comes up with runners on base.
  • For the Rangers, they haven't lost two games in a row since Aug. 24. As fans departed down the exit ramps, they were chanting "Der-ek Hol-lland, Der-ek, Hol-lland." It was a happy group of spectators. The World Series is tied. They'll be back chanting and hollering and screaming on Monday night for Game 5. Bring it on.
The Minnesota Twins and Boston Red Sox battled for 11 innings on Monday night, and in the end, Carl Crawford’s double high off the Green Monster plated Jose Iglesias with the winning run in a 2-1 victory.

Twins manager Ron Gardenhire, apparently waiting to take the lead before using closer Matt Capps, and not wanting to use Joe Nathan on back-to-back days, was left with somebody named Jim Hoey on the mound. With one out, Hoey walked Jed Lowrie -- not necessarily a surprise since Hoey walked 34 in 52 2/3 innings in the minors last season. Iglesias came in as a pinch-runner and Crawford hit a 3-2 pitch off the wall.

We’re going to see a lot of games like that this season: low-scoring affairs decided in the late innings. With scoring down, games will be tight, and with close games, late-inning bullpen work may be more important than ever. And if you’re relying on Jim Hoey in tie games, chances are you may be 12-21.

Let’s do a quick overview of the state of 'pens around baseball.

Three best bullpens on contenders

1. San Francisco Giants: The unheralded secret weapon of last year’s champs, the bullpen has picked up where it left off, with Javier Lopez, Sergio Romo, Ramon Ramirez and Guillermo Mota throwing lights-out. Closer Brian Wilson blew his first save chance but has since converted 11 in a row, despite a little wildness. The team has lefty-righty balance, with lefties Jeremy Affeldt and Dan Runzler adding solid depth.

2. Florida Marlins: Several arms were added to the Marlins' 'pen after last season’s shaky performance and so far they have a 2.59 relief ERA, second only to San Diego’s. I believe in this group, although stellar setup man Clay Hensley was just placed on the DL with a bruised rib. Closer Leo Nunez appeared in 17 of the team’s first 32 games, so watch his usage carefully.

3. New York Yankees: Yes, Mariano Rivera had that little burp, but he’s back on track. Setup man Rafael Soriano has struggled, but I project he’ll turn it around. Joba Chamberlain is throwing better than he has in years, and underrated David Robertson has one of the nastiest curves you’ll see. The 'pen has allowed just five home runs in 95 innings. The big question is whether Boone Logan will prove to be a reliable lefty in the absence of Pedro Feliciano.

Bullpen doing it with smoke and mirrors right now

Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays have a 2.69 bullpen ERA, third-best in the majors, and have allowed opponents a .203 batting average. They’ve allowed just 61 hits in 87 innings despite a poor 51/34 strikeout/walk ratio. Some of that is attributable to their defense, but the low strikeout rate means that .203 average will be difficult to maintain. And maybe you believe in Kyle Farnsworth more than I do.

Three bullpens I’m worried about

1. Texas Rangers: The Rangers will be fine at closer once Neftali Feliz returns, but the rest of the ‘pen looks shaky, as it has allowed 16 home runs in just 94 innings and has a poor 66/43 strikeout/walk ratio. Forty-somethings Darren Oliver and Arthur Rhodes are looking more their age and have surrendered three home runs apiece, and Darren O'Day is on the 60-day DL with a torn labrum in his hip.

2. Detroit Tigers: The team’s best reliever has been Al Alburquerque, and with a name like that, he'd better be good, because we want him to last a long time. Closer Jose Valverde is always a tightrope, but the rest of the setup crew, including high-priced free agent Joaquin Benoit, has looked inconsistent.

3. Milwaukee Brewers: Brewers relievers already have nine defeats. They have a few good arms in closer John Axford and Zach Braddock and Brandon Kintzler, but control issues have been a problem so far and lack of depth could be an issue.

Two awesome bullpens if you only need two guys

1. Atlanta Braves: Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters are dominant (and Eric O'Flaherty provides a nice third guy). We’ll have to see whether Venters holds up after pitching 79 games and 83 innings last year, but so far he’s been even better than he was in 2010, with a 0.70 WHIP.

2. Boston Red Sox: Daniel Bard’s raw numbers are great (well, except that 0-3 record, which is not exactly a non-important notation). Jonathan Papelbon is back with an 18/2 strikeout/walk ratio. But new acquisitions Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler have been disastrous, leaving a gaping hole after the top two.

Bullpen that may actually be OK

St. Louis Cardinals: The Cards are tied with the Brewers with nine bullpen losses, three by deposed closer Ryan Franklin. And while the team may not have a set closer (Fernando Salas has the role for now), there are some good arms here. Jason Motte, Mitchell Boggs and rookie Eduardo Sanchez all average more than 93 mph with their fastballs, and Salas throws strikes. Mix in LOOGYs Trever Miller and Brian Tallet, and I think Tony La Russa will figure out roles that turn this into one of the better 'pens in the NL.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Jay BruceThomas Campbell/US PresswireStretch! Jay Bruce reached as high as he could, but no dice. That one's gone.

Blown saves are overblown

April, 30, 2011
4/30/11
1:30
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What's the deal with blown saves? Erstwhile St. Louis Cardinals closer Ryan Franklin recently blew up on the mound for the fourth time this season, then blew up at fans for booing him. In response, people flamed him on the radio and internet. All this over a few blown saves.

Don't get me wrong, I don't particularly like blown saves, either. But blown saves are, if you will, overblown. Don't believe me? The Cardinals, whose relievers shut out the Braves for four innings in their 5-3 win Friday night, lead the National League Central with a 15-11 record. They also lead the league in blown saves.

The reality is that blown saves don't really negatively correlate with winning percentage. That doesn't mean they're good, but it probably means that they're not an indication that the Mayan apocalypse is upon us. This makes the certain freak out over every last one of them a little tiring. The preoccupation also tends to crowd out other aspects of the game that matter as much or more.

Happily, St. Louis fans will be spared any headlines Saturday about which closer du jour coughed up the lead Friday night. But partisans in Atlanta (Craig Kimbrel), Minnesota (Alex Burnett) and Boston (Bobby Jenks) will be stark-raving mad about their relievers' blown saves after Friday night. And that doesn't even include Detroit's Joaquin Benoit, because in a non-save situation -- so he couldn't get a blown save -- he surrendered a walk-off grand slam to Carlos Santana.

All of this is part of the problem. Like its ugly brother, the save, the blown save is a blunt object wielded to bash relievers into easily identified goats.

Consider these weird facts:
  • A pitcher who enters a tie game and gives up the lead can’t get a blown save.
  • A pitcher who enters with a four-run lead and gives up the lead can’t get a blown save.
  • A pitcher can get a blown save if the go-ahead run scores on fielding errors.
  • A pitcher who blows a save can also get the win.
  • A pitcher can be charged with a blown save even though a run may not even be charged to him.

A blown save is merely a half-inning sample of a ballgame. That means that a team has at least 17 other half-innings in which to win any particular game. What do you call it when the starting pitcher allows a run in the fourth inning with a 7-4 lead? Or a sixth-inning reliever who comes into the game down 3-2 but allows a run to increase his team’s deficit? We don’t call it anything, of course.

The upside-down world of the blown save was on display during the Cardinals’ mid-week series in Houston. The team’s most dominant reliever, Eduardo Sanchez, pitched notably worse than Mitchell Boggs, the pitcher expected to replace Franklin in the closer’s gig. Yet Boggs was saddled with the scarlet letters “BS,” while Sanchez wore an “S” like he was Superman. To top it off, Fernando Salas "earned" a save Thursday night by throwing a wild pitch (on which the inning ended with a runner tagged out trying to score), then pitching one inning with a four-run lead. "Hey, nice work, Fernando Salas," quipped broadcaster Dan McLaughlin, we hope mockingly.

It’s no surprise that Franklin, though successful in the past, has had a hard time closing games. It’s because he has had a hard time getting hitters out, relying as heavily as he does on defense and the vagaries of “luck” (with career rates of 4.9 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9, he has one of the highest rates of balls put into play). Regardless of the situation: He has allowed at least one baserunner in every game in which he has pitched this year.

Rather than focus on the non-qualitative blown save, let’s instead take a smarter look at relief pitchers. Until someone determines that saves are a special, repeatable skill -- rather than simply a function of opportunities and how good a reliever is in any context -- let’s just check out strikeout and walk rates, for starters.

For example, Sanchez entered Friday’s game with 14 strikeouts and one walk in eight innings, and in six minor-league seasons, the 22-year-old posted 9.9 K/9. With dominance like that, he’s going to succeed in relief, whether he enters with a four-run lead, in a tie game or down one run. Sure, he’ll blow a save every now and then, but so does Mariano Rivera

It’s a fact that the top two career leaders in blown saves are in the Hall of Fame. If you don't believe me, take a trip to Cooperstown, and you'll see that both Goose Gossage (112 blown saves) and Rollie Fingers (109) got elected. Almost always, more variables explain a team’s lost than a single hapless pitcher’s inability to obtain three outs on a particular night, so try not to attach too much significance to the Blown Save in isolation.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Tim LincecumJoy R. Absalon/US PresswireCatch me if you can: Tim Lincecum swipes the bag a few beats before Rick Ankiel.
Matt Philip covers the Cardinals for the SweetSpot Network at Fungoes. You can follow him on Twitter.
Carl Crawford isn't going to hit .156 all season. Adrian Gonzalez will hit home runs. But here are five legitimate issues that teams predicted to be contenders are facing right now.

Franklin
Franklin
1. Cardinals closer. Ryan Franklin lost the job with two losses, four blown saves and four home runs allowed in eight innings. The Cardinals lost all four of those games, so they could easily be 17-7 now instead of 13-11. Mitchell Boggs became the closer, saved three games, and then picked up a blown save and a loss Tuesday night in Houston. Eduardo Sanchez, a 22-year-old rookie, picked up the save Wednesday night, although in dubious fashion by allowing two runs. Despite all this, the Cardinals are in first place with the second-best run differential in the majors, thanks to an offense that leads the NL in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. In the end, I actually think Tony La Russa will sort things out. Boggs has a 15/3 SO/BB ratio in 12 2/3 innings, Sanchez has a 14/1 ratio and Fernando Salas and Jason Motte are also pitching well.

2. Francisco Liriano. As bad as Minnesota's offense has been (only the Padres have scored fewer runs), I'm just as worried about Liriano, so good a year ago but struggling with his control in 2011 (18 walks in 23 2/3 innings). There were trade rumors surrounding Liriano in spring training, which makes you wonder if the Twins had concerns about his health. His average fastball velocity is down from 93.7 to 92.1, which isn't a major concern ... for now. Considering the state of their offense, the Twins need Liriano to return to ace-like production.

Tejada
Tejada
3. Miguel Tejada and the Giants defense. Make what you want of defensive metrics, but logic tells you the Giants have issues on defense: old man Tejada at shortstop, pondering Pat Burrell in left, Andres Torres on the DL, not-exactly-Brooks Robinson Pablo Sandoval at third, and Aubrey Huff, who was moved back to first base after his adventures in right field. Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) has the Giants as the third-worst defensive team so far (although it grades Sandoval well at third). Considering Tejada isn't hitting either, how long will the Giants stick with him?

4. The Rangers bullpen. Darren O'Day just landed on the 60-day DL with a torn labrum in his hip. Even when Neftali Feliz returns from the DL, there could be issues. The pen has compiled a 4.02 ERA, 24th in the majors so far, but I point to a mediocre 44/30 SO/BB ratio as a sign that this pen is treading a fine line. Throw in the ages of Darren Oliver and Arthur Rhodes and you have another red flag. And while much has been made about Nolan Ryan urging Rangers starters to work deeper into games, the reality was Texas starters were just 11th in the AL in innings pitched in 2010. They'll need a deep and effective bullpen.

5. White Sox on-base percentage. Everybody has been focused on the Sox' bullpen problems, but I'm wondering if the Chicago offense is overrated. Yes, the Sox will hit plenty of long balls, but how many of those will be solo home runs? Juan Pierre, A.J. Pierzynski and Alexei Ramirez are notorious non-walkers and rookie third baseman Brent Morel has yet to draw a free pass. Oddly, Alex Rios isn't hitting (.163, no homers), but has 10 walks.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.
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