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As baseball fans, we love getting worked up about the next big thing. And as someone who follows a Twitter account that alerts me when Bryce Harper is about to come to the plate, I am well aware that I am as guilty of this as anyone.

The problem with this line of thinking is that we sometimes take for granted the older guys because we've been watching them for so long. We really shouldn't. Exhibit A is Carlos Beltran, who put on a show against the Atlanta Braves on Friday and is playing about as well as he ever has at the age of 35.

The switch-hitter went 4-for-5 with two homers, a double, a triple, a walk and 4 RBIs, and even though Atlanta won 9-7 in 12 innings, Beltran was the story. He is now hitting .307/.410/.658 on the young season. No, he's not the basestealing threat he once was, and he's been relegated to right field, but the sweet swing is still there, and the Cardinals are reaping the benefits after signing him to a two-year, $26 million deal last winter that now seems like the steal of the century.

Beltran missed much of the 2009 and 2010 seasons with a variety of injuries while playing for the New York Mets. And even though he posted an .872 OPS with stellar defense and baserunning over the life of the seven-year, $119 million deal he signed with the club before the 2005 season, New York fans never warmed to him due to his aloof nature and the fact that he took a called third strike to end Game 7 of the 2006 National League Championship Series. (I've never really understood this, by the way. It was a great pitch and he was fooled. Taking a harmless hack wouldn't have changed anything.)

But ever since the start of last season Beltran has been locked in. He hit .300 with 22 homers for the Mets and San Francisco Giants in 2011, and this year he has taken his game to a level unseen since 2006, when he tied the Mets' franchise record with 41 home runs and posted a .982 OPS. As ESPN Insider contributor Dave Cameron noted on Twitter earlier this evening, he's basically matching Matt Kemp in terms of performance with a fraction of the hype.

St. Louis fans have a reputation for embracing their players in a way that many other fan bases don't, and here's hoping they are fully appreciating the greatness of Beltran in a way that many New York fans never seemed to. Frankly, we all should be appreciating him more because he's one of the best players of this generation.

With two more stolen bases he will become just the eighth player in baseball history with more than 300 homers and 300 steals, and with another couple of seasons of All-Star level production -- which is not out the question considering his current level of play -- he should have a strong Hall of Fame case. However, we know he can't keep up his current production forever, so let's enjoy it while it's here instead of focusing too much on who might be coming next.

Last year, You Can't Predict Baseball came up with bold predictions for the year. We had a lot of fun coming up with them, and then laughing at how hilariously wrong they were at the end of the year. This year, we're bringing these predictions to SweetSpot, along with explanations for some of them. Keep in mind, these predictions are supposed to be bold, but not insane -- even we know the Orioles aren't going to the playoffs in 2012.

Los Angeles Angels: Kendrys Morales stays healthy all year.

Houston Astros: Bud Norris is top five in K/9 in the NL. We figured something good had to happen to the Astros, right? Norris actually has a pretty nice career K/9.

Oakland Athletics: Yoenis Cespedes is their starting center fielder by Memorial Day.

Toronto Blue Jays: Brandon Morrow makes the jump to elite starting pitcher. He's struck out more than 10 batters per 9 innings two years running, though his ERAs have remained ugly. We think this is the year his results finally match the stuff, especially considering his declining walk rate.

Atlanta Braves: Julio Teheran has more wins than Tim Hudson.

Milwaukee Brewers: Rickie Weeks leads the team in home runs. He was fourth on the team last year, with 20. In front of him were Corey Hart with 26, Ryan Braun with 33, and Prince Fielder with 38. Fielder is gone, and for this prediction we'll assume Braun will miss a third of the year due to a suspension. It's not too bold to think Weeks could pass Hart in 2012.

St. Louis Cardinals: Carlos Beltran outproduces Albert Pujols from last year. Albert Pujols was great last year, but not quite best-player-of-his-generation Albert Pujols. If healthy, it's not absurd to think of Beltran outproducing Pujols' 5.1 WAR in 2011.

Chicago Cubs: Matt Garza isn't their best pitcher. It'll be Ryan Dempster, who had great peripherals but bad results last year.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Aaron Hill will be good again. He was great with them in limited time, and Arizona's park is quite hitter-friendly.

Los Angeles Dodgers: James Loney will be a top-three first baseman in the National League. Many thanks to Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness for somewhat alerting us to this one. We just decided to take it semi-absurdly far.

San Francisco Giants: Madison Bumgarner is their best pitcher. In terms of ERA, he already wasn't very far behind Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, and his K/BB ratio eclipsed theirs by quite a bit.

Cleveland Indians: They'll have the best pitching in the American League Central. We're banking on Ubaldo Jimenez, making a major comeback to something closer to what he was in 2010, and the rest of the staff displaying the good that they did in 2011. We're also counting on the Tigers' starters not being very impressive behind Justin Verlander, which is bold but not quite insane, and the pitching of the White Sox, Twins and Royals not being able to keep up with Cleveland's.

Seattle Mariners: Jesus Montero catches 100-plus games. The Mariners probably aren't going to compete, so why not try and play him where he'll accrue the most value?

Miami Marlins: Despite all their new acquisitions and the hype, they still finish fourth in the NL East. When you think about it, this one isn't so crazy. If Josh Johnson isn't healthy and maybe even if he is their pitching still trails that of Philadelphia, Washington, and Atlanta; even with Heath Bell, we don't think their bullpen is as good, either. Their offense might be better than some of those teams', but the Marlins were quite a bit below league average offensively last year and we're not sure how much Jose Reyes is going to make up for that.

New York Mets: Mike Pelfrey is the worst starter in the NL. Pelfrey's been pretty terrible two of the past three years, and now they're moving the fences in at Citi Field. He was far better in his huge home stadium, but we're guessing with the moved-in walls he'll be significantly worse at Citi. Here at YCPB, we actually don't think the Mets are going to be quite as dire as many are saying, even if they do come in last place in the NL East - but Pelfrey won't be a bright spot.

Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg has a 17-strikeout game.

Baltimore Orioles: Matt Wieters is the best catcher in the AL. A lot of people are so obsessed with Wieters not matching the hype that they didn't notice he became a plus offensive performer last year, to go along with very good defense. His taking the next step isn't that bold as predictions go, especially if Joe Mauer has to move off catcher.

San Diego Padres: Luke Gregerson is a top-three closer in the NL.

Philadelphia Phillies: Cole Hamels is their best starter. And this isn't meant to be a slight to Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee, but considering their ages and the fact that Hamels is pretty darn good himself, plus a possible boost from a contract year...

Pittsburgh Pirates: Charlie Morton is their All-Star.

Texas Rangers: Yu Darvish isn't their best starter -- but he's still good. And we think he'll be pretty good, we just think Derek Holland will become more consistently good, or Matt Harrison will put up numbers like his 2011.

Tampa Bay Rays: James Shields will have no complete games. Predicting someone to have no complete games might not seem bold, but it is when it's a guy who was known as "Complete Game James" last season. Shields did have 11 complete games in 2011, an almost unheard-of number these days, but he had no complete games in 2009 or 2010.

Boston Red Sox: No one hits 30 home runs. This might seem crazy when you consider their great offensive numbers last year, but only one player on their team hit 30 home runs and it was Jacoby Ellsbury with 32.

Cincinnati Reds: Brandon Phillips is the best second baseman in the NL.

Colorado Rockies: Jamie Moyer will have the best HR/9 on the staff.

Kansas City Royals: They reach .500. While their pitching won't be great, their offense will take a big step forward this year. Combined with the rest of their division being the Tigers and some dumpster fires, it's not that difficult to see it happening.

Detroit Tigers: They score fewer runs than they did in 2011. Yes, that’s even with Fielder. It's not improbable that Jhonny Peralta, Alex Avila and Delmon Young regress quite a bit from their numbers with Detroit last year, and that Prince Fielder's production "only" makes up for the offensive loss of Victor Martinez in 2012. They'll still have a very good offense, though.

Minnesota Twins: Joe Mauer hits 15 home runs.

Chicago White Sox: Robin Ventura gets ejected more times than Ozzie Guillen. Look at the state of the White Sox. We'd get ejected too.

New York Yankees: Hiroki Kuroda leads the team in ERA.

You Can't Predict Baseball is an affiliate of the SweetSpot network.

Recently, Baseballin’ on a Budget’s Chris Martinez was granted an interview with Shooty Babitt, currently working as both a television analyst for the A’s on Comcast SportsNet California and a scout for the New York Mets.

Chris used the time to ask in-depth questions on many topics, including scouting, something about which many baseball fans (including me) only have cursory knowledge. I thought I’d post a few snippets in this space (for the record, Shooty seems like a great guy; the fact that he turned 28 major-league games into a 30-year career as a broadcaster and a scout only backs that up).

CM: I didn’t know there were different tiers of scouting. You’re talking about doing the scouting for trades and free agency. I only knew about the area scouts at the minor league level. Can you talk about the difference in the types of scouting?

SB: An area scout is given a particular part of the region, like a Northern California scout, an area guy. When I was an area guy with Atlanta, I had from Salinas, [Calif.,] all the way up to southern Tahoe. [The scout's] job is to know every player who could be a potential professional player. There are pro guys who only do minor-league stuff and then there are area guys who are doing A-ball coverage because at the end of the season and after the draft their clubs send them out to do professional scouting.

It gives them a chance to see kids that they’ve scouted in the past from high school and see the progress they’ve made. Are they that player they thought they would be? Were they right about his tools becoming playable at the higher level? Or did they make a mistake? Where did you go wrong? That’s a great yardstick for me scouting for as long as I have.

There are kids that I saw that I said that can’t hit in the major leagues. I’ve been wrong on a couple but I’ve been right on more. That’s the great part of the job. The things that I’ve seen in players over the past years, those are the things that I’ve determined as far as my evaluations are concerned.

CM: Can you go into the details of your day-to-day scouting duties?

SB: My schedule is mapped out for the year. I have to make sure everything falls into place. Normally, I’m in the Bay Area for half the month. I’m starting the [2011 season] with the first three days in Oakland against Seattle. I get to the ballpark around 2 or 2:30 when no one’s there. I set up. I get online, read some notes, get prepared. When people start showing up I start talking to whomever I know: a coach, a player, a manager, a front-office executive, anyone who can tell me something that gives me more knowledge about that club.

I get my lineups written up. I have a card I keep during the year so whenever I see them I change the date but I write the lineup on the card. Our reports are made up on that card. I make up my report on each player. Normally, I stay with a club five days so I can see all the starters. By that time I’ve seen all the relievers and position players. Now I’ve watched what they’ve done and I’ve evaluated and graded [them], what it is now, what I think it will be in the future, and what [a player's] value might be.

On that fifth day, I’m onto the next city. Hopefully, it’s another club coming in that I’m responsible for and [it] gives me a week and a half at home. But if I have to jump on the road, I do the same thing. Each night when I’m there, I’m doing reports. The next time I see a starting pitcher, I get him in the computer. I don’t want to fall behind. When it starts getting close to the trade deadline, we start zeroing in on a lot of players. We have more conference calls. Just be ready for the phone to ring.

CM: I read some quotes, what Billy Martin said about you. Is it true that he said he’d rather shoot himself than have you play second base?

SB: I didn’t hear that. One night in Cleveland when the whole infield had a bad night he took it out on me more than anyone else for some reason. He said he was going to send me to Egypt to play.

The entire interview is entertaining and informative, well worth the time to read it. Kudos to Chris for making the most of the opportunity.

Dan Hennessey writes Baseballin' on a Budget, a blog about the Oakland Athletics. Follow him on Twitter @DanHennessey31.

The last time I watched Jason Bay play on a nightly basis was the 2009 season, his last in Boston before departing to New York with a four-year, $66 million contract. A full season removed from his time in Boston, the image of him punishing line drives to left-center or hitting moon balls over the Green Monster still sit fresh in my mind.

Unfortunately for Mets fans, they aren’t quite able to muster up such memories.

Over his season and a half in Boston, Bay hit 45 home runs or one home run every 16 at-bats. His career before coming to Boston, Bay went yard at an equally impressive clip of once every 18.5 at-bats. But in his first season in Flushing Meadows, Bay’s power stroke all but disappeared in the caverns of Citi Field as he managed only six home runs in nearly 350 chances -- or once every 58 at-bats.

To be fair to Bay, his season was undoubtedly cut short by injury after his July 25 concussion that landed him on the 60-day disabled list. As a streaky power hitter adjusting to a new park with the pressure of a new contract, Bay could very well have turned his season around in 2010 if healthy. Robbed of that chance by the Dodger Stadium wall, Bay turns to the 2011 season to make amends.

"I just want to get back to the player I know I am," Bay told reporters in Mets camp. "I kind of lost that a little bit last year."

Two questions immediately come to mind upon hearing Bay’s words: 1) Can Jason Bay regain his past form and become a threat in the middle of the New York Mets’ lineup; and 2) What exactly did he lose last year that sapped his power in the first place?

Surely the move from Fenway Park to Citi Field had its impact on Bay early in 2010. My memories of Bay and his assault of -- and over -- the Green Monster are validated by a quick look at the scatter plots of his home runs over the course of 2009 when 24 of his 36 home runs cleared the Monster.

But Fenway Park alone didn’t make Bay a dangerous pull hitter. Over the course of his career, nearly half of his extra-base hits have been pulled to left field. While Bay wasn’t likely to turn in consecutive years with an ISO of .466 on pulled balls like he did at Fenway, and some regression upon leaving for any new home would be expected, Bay still owned a career .304 ISO on balls hit to left.

What happened last year? He simply stopped pulling the ball as often and with as much power. In fact, he turned into a virtual Alex Cora at the plate, posting an ISO of .079 on pulled balls to Cora’s .073. Not what you expect from your $66 million slugger. Is it fair to place the full blame of his power lapse on ballpark factors? No. But if there were a case that exacerbated the impacts of park changes more than this, I would be surprised.

Given Bay’s ability to find his power stroke to left in 2011, can he translate that into a 30-plus home-run season? According to Bay, at least, he has a shot.

""Thirty, I think, is reasonable," Bay said. "That's a big ballpark, and the number might take a hit, but you look at David Wright. David hit 29, and it can be done."

Unfortunately for Bay, you won’t find a major projection system or the voting community at FanGraphs as optimistic about a return to the home run leaderboard.

2011 Home Run Projections: Jason Bay:

FanGraphs Community: 23
ZiPS: 20
Bill James: 21
Marcel: 17

Then again, maybe Bay is an eternal optimist after all.

"Are we going to win 120 games?" Bay asked. "I don't know, but I think we're going to be a lot better than people think."

Tim Daloisio contributes to Fire Brand of the American League, a blog about the Boston Red Sox.

The New York Mets are assembling quite the brain trust, don't you think?

Paul DePodesta is leaving his role as executive vice president of the San Diego Padres to join general manager Sandy Alderson's front office with the New York Mets as a special assistant.

DePodesta, 37, served as GM of the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2004 and '05, becoming the third-youngest executive in major league history to hold a GM role.

He is the second high-profile assistant Alderson has named since becoming GM, joining former Toronto Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi. Along with holdover Wayne Krivsky, the Mets have three former GMs working under Alderson. Krivsky was GM of the Cincinnati Reds.

Make no mistake, my friends, there is a direct correlation between the intelligence of the people in your front office and the performance of your team on the field. Now, "intelligence" can take many different forms. You don't have to be a Marine officer (as Alderson was) to lead men, or graduate from Harvard (as Paul DePodesta did) to read a spreadsheet, or chase girls with Billy Beane (as J.P. Ricciardi did) to talk the fur-lined boots off an Eskimo.

It really helps, though.

Keep your eye on the Mets. If they suddenly begin doing intelligent things, it won't take long before they've passed the Braves and are challenging the Phillies. If the organization continues to muddle along for two or three years, it will probably be due to the meddling of whoever hired all these smart guys.

Calcaterra on the Mets' latest machinations:

I suppose a well-considered decision is better than an impulsive one, but it does seem like the Mets are taking their sweet time on this GM thing.

The team just sent out an e-mail to fans saying that they’re bringing back former Diamondbacks GM Josh Byrnes and Sandy Alderson for a second round of interviews. Which, given that Alderson has already been in twice for interviews means that it will his third time meeting with Mets officials.

I know it’s an important job, but really, what’s taking so long here? It’s not like these two are part of a big slate of entry-level applicants who could only get 30 minute across-the-desk interviews when they were in before. What else do you need to know? (That's actually the whole post. I owe you one, ShysterCraig.)

I guess we just don't know yet.

Maybe upper management is being incredibly diligent, making sure they get not only the right man, but the right fit.

Or maybe upper management is engaged in the same tomfoolery that got them into this mess.

I happen to think either Byrnes or Alderson would do a fine job, though of course Alderson's got the more impressive track record. As someone else pointed out (sorry, don't remember where), if Alderson does get the job he'll probably focus a bit more on the big picture than most GMs would, so we should pay closer attention than usual to the identity of his closest assistants.

Whoever winds up with the job, I don't expect the Mets to languish in the middle of the standings for much longer.

Under the headline, "There is no fixing the Mets until the team is sold," Craig writes:

That's the only conclusion that can be drawn from Joel Sherman's latest, in which he cast about big league front offices to get (anonymous) comment on the Mets' COO.

The pithy summary: Wilpon is a "short-tempered, tone deaf credit seeker," he's an "accountability deflector," a "micro-manager" and a "second-guesser." Oh, and he's a bull-headed idiot too, if the phrases Sherman uses -- he's a "less-than-deep thinker," and is "bad at self-awareness" -- can be reasonably parsed.

--snip--

... The only people who are going to want the Mets GM job are those people who have no better options and who will likely put up with anything Wilpon throws at them because they need the job badly.

Which is exactly how Jeff Wilpon wants it, it would seem.

I won't tar Jeff Wilpon any further because I don't know the guy and Sherman and Calcaterra have already pretty much finished the job. I have written a few times over the years that I believe the old saying, "A fish stinks from the head," probably tells us something useful about baseball teams. It's always easy (and fun!) to blame the general manager, but when the general managers change but the owner doesn't and the franchise just keeps losing, who's responsible, really?

The general manager? Or the owner, for hiring the general manager and/or forcing the general manager to do foolish things?

The owner is ultimately responsible. But that does sort of beg the question. What I'd really like to know is whether big franchise turnarounds are typically due to changes in management, or changes in ownership. Which seems like an empirical question, at least to some degree. As far as I know, nobody's ever studied the impact of ownership on team performance.

In the mean time, I would agree that the Mets do have an ownership problem. I would not suggest that it doesn't matter who gets the GM job. Everything matters. But the Mets should be competitive almost every year. They should be today's Phillies, or yesterday's Braves. But instead they're the Mets, who have been to the playoffs exactly once since the Wilpons took complete control of the franchise eight years ago.

Should be an interesting off-season in Queens. FanHouse's Ed Price:

There has been little doubt for a while the Mets will not bring back Jerry Manuel as manager, and a source confirmed reports that general manager Omar Minaya is likely out as well. Ownership seems to be leaning toward hiring an experienced GM, as they are not inclined to promote assistant GM John Ricco, and Wally Backman -- a popular ex-Met who was nearly manager of the Diamondbacks before the team discovered some off-field issues he didn't disclose -- as manager.

As Craig points out, there don't seem to be a great many candidates for Minaya's job. There's Kevin Towers and ... well, that's about it if the Mets are looking for someone with plenty of experience and a winning record. And Towers is considered one of the top candidates for the job in Arizona.

Which is to say, I don't have any idea who's going to get the job. I do think the problem's been ownership as much as general managership, but maybe the next guy will prove me wrong.

More than anything, I just wanted to use this chance to mention (again, probably) how badly Omar Minaya messed up with Heath Bell and Francisco Rodriguez.

Last season, Bell led the National League with 42 saves. This season, he's got 41 saves and hasn't blown a chance since late May.

Of course, not so long ago Bell was a Met and Minaya gave him away.

Well, that's not completely true. Minaya traded Bell and Royce Ring to the Padres for Jon Adkins and Ben Johnson. Since then, Adkins and Johnson have combined to appear in 14 major league games and Heath Bell has 85 saves and a 2.51.

How did this happen? I wasn't there. Maybe Bell was biting the heads off chickens and spitting their blood at elderly clubhouse attendants. But my guess is that Minaya placed too much faith in Bell's short time in the majors and not enough faith in his minor-league performance.

In 2005 and '06, Bell pitched 64 games for the Mets -- 84 innings -- and gave up a whopping 107 hits. At the same time, his strikeout-to-walk ratio was excellent: 3.25 with plenty of strikeouts.

Since joining the Padres, Bell's strikeout-to-walk ratio has stayed roughly the same. He's given up slightly fewer home runs. The big difference has been the hits. Which might have been predicted, considering his (apparent) bad luck with the Mets and his solid numbers in the minors.

Granted, there was no reason to think Bell would become this good. But if Minaya had held on to Bell for just one more season -- in 2007, he pitched brilliantly as Trevor Hoffman's setup man in San Diego -- he might have been dissuaded from spending $47 million on Francisco Rodriguez, who a) hasn't been as good as Bell, and b) is now in a big bowl full of trouble.

If Minaya had trusted the numbers, today he would have Bell and $47 million of baseball players not named Francisco Rodriguez.

Everybody makes mistakes. But this was a real doozie.

Second opinion confirms lousy news:

Monday morning, it was reported that Johan Santana was awaiting a second opinion on his shoulder from Dr. James Andrews. That second opinion, it appears, confirmed the first one, and Monday afternoon we found out that Santana will have shoulder surgery on Tuesday. The surgery will end Santana's season, an otherwise successful year that saw Santana post a 2.98 ERA and strike out 144 batters over 199 innings.

That last bit about the strikeouts sounds like a good thing. But it wasn't, really.

In Santana's four brilliant seasons with the Twins, he struck out nearly 10 hitters per nine innings, and struck out nearly five times more hitters than he walked.

In Santana's first two seasons with the Mets, he struck out nearly eight hitters per nine innings; this year he struck out only 6.5 per nine innings. In his three Met seasons, his strikeout-to-walk ratio has dropped from 4.52 (in his last Twin season) to 3.27 to 3.17 to 2.62 (this season).

Superficially, you might think that Santana's been almost as good with the Mets as he was with the Twins. After all, as a Met he's gone 40-25 with a 2.85 ERA.

Except there's a big difference between pitching for the Twins and pitching for the Mets. Santana's ERA+ with the Mets is 144; his ERA+ in those previous four seasons with the Twins was 155. As a Twin, Santana won two Cy Young Awards, also finishing third and fifth. As a Met, Santana has a third-place finish.

Obviously, he's been excellent as a Met. But not as excellent as what the Mets thought they were paying for. And while I wouldn't want to discount the wonders of modern surgical techniques, the drop in Santana's strikeout rates suggest that he simply isn't the same pitcher that he was, and probably never will be.

Which, as a baseball fan, I find disheartening.

A reader named Anthony asks a really good question:

I have a question regarding your recent story on K-Rod and his injury. You wrote that you "don't think closers are worth (almost) $12 million per season," and neither do I.

But are you aware that K-Rod has a vesting option for $17.5 million in 2012 if he (1) finishes 55 games in 2011, and (2) finishes a combined 100 games between 2010 and 2011? I am surprised that if you think (almost) $12 million for a closer is offensive, you don't even mention that the Mets might be allocating more than $5 million more than that amount to the closer position in 2012!

If the Mets can void his contract, they should. The inclusion of that option was a terrible mistake, and if K-Rod's idiotic behavior provides them with the ability to get out from under that deal, they should jump all over the opportunity.

I don't think (almost) $12 million for a closer is offensive, but it's just too much money for the great majority of closers, who don't pitch enough innings or influence the outcomes of enough games to justify that sort of expense.

But $17(.5) million is a wholly different thing. I wasn't aware of that vesting option. Frankly, the idea is so ridiculous that I simply didn't bother to check. No relief pitcher has ever earned $17.5 million in one season, and no relief pitcher has ever been worth $17.5 million. I did recall having been somewhat surprised by Rodriguez's contract when he signed it. I didn't recall that 2012 option.

I should have, if only because it's a compelling piece of the evidence that the Mets' front office is incompetent. At least when it comes to properly valuing relief pitchers.

Or maybe Rodriguez's recent contretemps have inspired a sudden bout of competency. Today, I suspect the Mets would love to get out from under that contract. First they're going to try to avoid paying him for the rest of this season and won't guarantee his contract in 2011; without a guarantee in 2011, they can cut Rodriguez and thus avoid any worries about 2012, too.

In response to the Mets’ steps, Michael Weiner, the head of the players union, said Tuesday night that the union would challenge what the Mets are trying to do.

“The Mets’ actions are without basis, and the union will grieve them right away,” he said.

He said he expected the grievance to go before an arbitrator by this fall. Before then, there will be probably be a face-to-face meeting between the Mets, the union and Rodriguez’s agent. In such a setting, it is conceivable a deal could be worked out under which the Mets would settle for the union’s not contesting Rodriguez’s loss of pay in 2010 and the Mets, in exchange, agreeing to guarantee Rodriguez’s salary for 2011.

--snip--

For now, though, the move to make Rodriguez’s contract nonguaranteed will get attention. Gabe Feldman, the head of the sports law department at Tulane University, said he could not recall an instance in which a team had attempted such a step.

“The players union is going to do everything they can to uphold the sanctity of contracts,” he said. “They fight hard to make sure they get guaranteed contracts for their players. What the Mets did is something that is buried in major league rules. It’s rare to void contracts and even more rare to convert to nonguaranteed contracts, particularly with a star player."

What's buried, specifically, is Section 7 (b) (1) of the Uniform Player Contract, which states a team can void a player's contract if he shall "fail, refuse or neglect to conform his personal conduct to the standards of good citizenship ..."

The only problem is that there's essentially no precedent for actually doing that. And these things are all about precedent. The Rockies know, because they tried it with Denny Neagle after he got hurt and got busted. At the time, the Rockies owed Neagle $19.5 million. Before the case went before an arbitrator, the Rockies agreed to pay Neagle $16 million.

The same thing is going to happen to the Mets, should they carry through with this. Ultimately, they'll probably be faced with two lousy alternatives: Paying Rodriguez a lot of money to go away, or paying Rodriguez a lot of money to stay.

Again: Really, really nice work here, guys. Kudos to everyone involved.

This story just keeps getting better. Or worse. Or something:

-

New York Mets closer Francisco Rodriguez suffered a torn ligament in his right thumb while allegedly striking the grandfather of his children last week at Citi Field, a team official said.

Rodriguez, who pitched Saturday with discomfort in his return from a two-day team suspension, was examined Monday at the Hospital for Special Surgery in Manhattan. Team doctors recommended surgery, but a date for the procedure has yet to be scheduled.

Rodriguez was charged with third-degree assault and second-degree harassment as a result of the incident in the family room at Citi Field last Wednesday.

"You can make the assumption that the injury resulted from the incident last week," the official said.

-

Rodriguez lost $125,000 in salary during his two-day team-imposed suspension, and could be in line to forfeit the salary for the remainder of the season if a non-baseball event resulted in the injury, as is alleged. Rodriguez is making $11.5 million this season. It is unclear if the Mets would try to void Rodriguez's entire contract which runs next year and has a vesting option for 2012.Assuming that he's healthy after the surgery, I'm not sure why the Mets would want to void Rodriguez's entire contract. I wasn't a big fan of the contract when he got it, because I don't think closers are worth (almost) $12 million per season. But that is what they get, and if the Mets are going to overpay for a closer, they might as well overpay for this one.

Unless ... and I want to be very clear about this ... unless (theoretically) axing Rodriguez is part of a larger strategy that involves spending money more wisely and (or) not putting up with ridiculously anti-social behavior.

Given the Mets' recent history, I doubt if such a strategy is in the offing. Considering the ownership in place and ownership's apparent confidence in the general manager, I expect more of the same in the next two or three years. In which case they might as well keep K-Rod around. It's not like he's the only major leaguer with a bad and sometimes violent temper. Not even close.

What the Mets should do is force Rodriguez -- between his anger-management classes and his injury rehab -- to watch Bull Durham a few dozen times. Shoot, even I know you're not supposed to punch a guy with your pitching hand.

As good as R.A. Dickey has been this season, he's not been good enough to save the Mets.

But his one-hitter Friday night does suggest, in sharp relief, that Dickey has single-handedly saved a streak that stretches back to (at least) the 1930s.

In 1938, 29-year-old knuckleballer Dutch Leonard joined the Washington Senators and went 12-15 with a 3.43 ERA, fourth best in the American League. Leonard would eventually win 191 games, pitching (as the best knuckleballers do) into his middle 40s.*

* Some of you might wonder why I'm beginning with Dutch Leonard in the 1930s, rather than with Hall of Famer Jesse Haines or near-Hall of Famer Freddie Fitzsimmons in the 1920s. Both pitchers were excellent, and both were widely known as knuckleball pitchers. I'm not starting with them because both seem to have thrown pitches that we would describe as knuckle-curveballs rather than true knuckleballs.

Why do I bring Leonard up? Because the same night Dickey threw a one-hitter, fellow knuckleballer Tim Wakefield also gave up just one hit ... but he faced just one hitter, and the one hit was a walkoff home run. On the evening of August 13, 2010, the torch was passed (however unwillingly).

Which torch? For some years, Wakefield was the only effective knuckleball pitcher in the major leagues. Dutch Leonard began a long streak -- a streak of seasons in which at least one good knuckleball pitcher was working in the major leagues -- and Wakefield has, for some years, kept it going all by himself.

Here's the (short) list of knuckleballers who have kept the streak alive:

1938-1952: Dutch Leonard
1952-1970: Hoyt Wilhelm
1967-1986: Phil Niekro
1986-1998: Tom Candiotti
1995-2009: Tim Wakefield
2010-201?: R.A. Dickey

The key figures here are Wilhelm and Wakefield.

If Phil Niekro hadn't come along and put together his Hall of Fame career, his years would still have been covered by the likes of Wilbur Wood, Charlie Hough, and Phil's little brother. Similarly, Hough's career overlapped with Wakefield's.

But without Wilhelm and Kid '66, there would be significant gaps in the 1950s and the 2000s. Between Dutch Leonard in 1952 and Hal "Skinny" Brown (1956-1964), the only effective non-Wilhelm knuckleballer was Marion Fricano ... and Fricano was effective in just one season (1953). Between Candiotti in 1998 and R.A. Dickey in 2010, the only effective non-Wakefield knuckleballer was Steve Sparks ... and his last good season was 2001 (when he led the majors with eight complete games!).

We knew Wakefield couldn't pitch forever. Not so long ago, I had high hopes for the latest knuckleballing Charlies, Zink and Haeger. But while both are still young by knuckleballer standards, both also have seemed completely lost, unable to throw their mysterious pitches with any sort of precision at all.

Maybe Wakefield will come back strong next year. And maybe Dickey will regress next year. But I think there's a pretty good chance that we've got a sixth name for our list.

Howard Megdal on booing a guy with a 2.44 ERA:

He’s been a good closer, by any reasonable measure: the Mets have called on him again and again to finish off the other guys, and the vast majority of the time, that’s exactly what he’s done.

But the fans don’t generally like him all that much. They boo him when he comes into games, or at least some of them do — enough to make themselves understood.

"What can I tell you?" a weary “K-Rod” said about the fan reception, speaking at his locker to a single reporter following the Mets’ 4-0 victory against the Cardinals last night. "I can't control what they say."

--snip--

The problem, really, is that Francisco Rodriguez is not Mariano Rivera.

The Mets fans, with good reason, feels intense frustration over all the Yankees have, past, present and future. Despite sharing the same rich market, and therefore ostensibly the ability to compete for titles, the two teams really aren’t in the same league.I think that's part of it.

I think 2009 is part of it, too. After setting an all-time record with 62 saves in 2008, Rodriguez signed with the Mets for three years and $37 million. At that point, his career ERA was 2.35 and he'd averaged48 saves in four seasons as the Angels' closer.

So you can understand the fans' frustrations when K-Rod's first season with the Mets included a 3.71 ERA (easily the highest of his career) and only 35 saves. And there was also the way Rodriguez failed (relatively speaking): His walks were up and his strikeouts were down. Frankly, he wasn't worth anywhere nearwhat the Mets were paying him last season.

This season's been different. No, he's still not worth what the Mets are paying him. But that's a baseball issue rather than a Francisco Rodriguez issue; very few veteran closers are worth the money they're paid. He's been pretty good; the walks are down significantly, the strikeouts up a little, and the strikeout-to-walk ratio actually a little better than his career mark.

But the pitcher the Mets probably thought they were getting? He's probably gone forever. Rodriguez just doesn't throw as hard as he used to. He's still hard to hit, and he's done a fine job of limiting the home runs. But when his contract expires after next season, the Mets will probably be happy to move on.

And so, apparently, will many of their fans.

After running through the particulars of the deal that sent Victor Zambrano to the Mets from the (then) Devil Rays and Scott Kazmir from the Mets to the Rays -- the six-year anniversary is a week from today -- Jeff Pearlman bends over pretty far backward while being charitable to (then) Mets GM Jim Duquette:

Yes, Scott Kazmir has had a nice career. But nice is often misleading. Now in his seventh full season, Kazmir has never posted an ERA lower than 3.48, has never won more than 13 games and has only thrown one complete game -- in 2006. After beginning last season with an 8-7 record and 5.92 ERA for Tampa Bay, he was unceremoniously shipped to the Angels for Sean Rodriguez and two prospects.

Now, with his velocity down, his once-potent slider nonexistent and his ERA a major league-worst 6.92, Kazmir has been placed on the disabled list by an organization perplexed and befuddled by a should-be ace. He recently made the worst start in the 49-year history of the Angels, permitting 13 earned runs over five innings against Oakland. "Looking at video, I can't even tell if that's me out there," Kazmir recently told ESPN. "It's getting a little out of control."

In other words, the man has broken down. He will likely never be Ron Guidry or, for that matter, the Scott Kazmir of four years ago.

This doesn't mean Jim Duquette was right. The trade was unambiguously dumb and irrational and unsophisticated. But after six years of being reminded of the blunder, it's time to let him move on.

The baseball landscape is one littered with boneheaded swaps -- many worse than Kazmir for Zambrano.


Well, OK. We can move on. But not before mentioning that in his four good years with Tampa Bay, Kazmir went 45-34 with a 3.51 ERA, pitched in a couple of All-Star Games, and generated nearly $60 million in value for the Rays (while earning only $5 million in salary). In a sense, trading Kazmir for Zambrano cost the Mets $55 million.

Oh, except it was probably a lot more than that. In 2007 the Mets finished one game behind the first-place Phillies. In 2008 they finished three games behind the first-place Phillies. In 2006, their fourth starter in October was Steve Trachsel, who started twice and gave up seven runs in four-plus innings. It's not hard to imagine the Mets generating a great deal more income with Kazmir, because it's not hard to imagine them winning significantly more postseason games in those three years than they actually won.

Yeah, Kazmir now seems to have broken down. But for four years he was both good and cheap, which means he was incredibly valuable. Also, everybody thought Duquette was nuts at the time of the deal. Most trades are fairly well balanced; if they seem lopsided, it's not until months (or years) later, and mostly due to luck or factors that just couldn't have been reasonably predicted.

But this wasn't one of those trades. This was a bad deal from day one, and everybody knew it except the Mets.

As I wrote on July 22, this is the only move that makes sense:

Manuel told reporters before Sunday’s game against the Braves that he planned to shift Angel Pagan to right field upon Beltran’s return, displacing Francoeur, who Manuel said would start mostly against left-handed pitchers.

“He understands,” Manuel said. “That’s the guy he is.”

--snip--

Francoeur put it simply: Given the way Pagan is hitting, he deserves to play. As for himself, he said he was not sure what it would be like to come off the bench, but he would take it day by day and do his best as a pinch hitter or defensive replacement.

“You’re not going to see me sitting there sulking,” he said.

I don't know if the Mets are good enough to catch the Braves. But an outfield composed of Jason Bay, Carlos Beltran, and a Pagan/Francoeur platoon is going to put some runs on the board. The Mets currently rank 12th in the league in OPS, and they simply have to improve by at least a few spots in the second half. Getting Beltran into the lineup every day (and Francoeur out) won't solve the problem, but you do what you can and hope Ike Davis and Jose Reyes do their parts, too.

Meanwhile, Francoeur's public reaction gives us an idea of why his managers seem to have been so fond of him.