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Pitching matchups looking forward and back were a popular topic on Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast, as Keith Law and I tackled many subjects!

1. First, there’s the Ozzie Guillen situation with the Marlins. Hey, this probably won’t be the last time we’re talking about Guillen off the field.

2. Ian Kinsler and Brandon Phillips each have shiny, new contracts, but which one of them really deserves it?

3. The performances of Neftali Feliz and Daniel Bard were very much on my mind from Tuesday night, but what does Law see for these right-handers moving forward?

4. Our emailers want to know the effect managers can have on baseball games, whether Austin Jackson is a good leadoff choice and more! Send emails to baseballtoday@espnradio.com.

5. We look ahead to what should be a terrific slate of Wednesday games, including Roy Halladay versus Josh Johnson on ESPN2.

Plus, Keith talks about the upcoming draft and which high school and college kids to watch. It’s a packed Wednesday episode of Baseball Today podcast, so download and listen now! Coming Thursday, SweetSpot blogger/editor Dave Schoenfield will join me! Chone Figgins for MVP!

Ozzie Guillen flew from Philadelphia to Miami to meet members of the media and address the Miami community about his Fidel Castro comments. He said he wanted to look people in the eyes as he apologized. He said he was embarrassed. I have no reason not to believe him.

"I feel like I’ve betrayed my Latin community. ... I’m here to say I’m sorry with my heart in my hands," he said, speaking in Spanish at the outset of the news conference. "And for all the Cuban families, I’m sorry. I hope when I get out of here, people will understand who Ozzie Guillen is. I’m here to face you person to person."

He seemed contrite. He seemed hurt by the five-game suspension the Miami Marlins have given him. "I respect the decision. I’m not in a position to complain," he said.

It was the right move by the Marlins to suspend their manager. This should be viewed as a local issue, among Guillen, the Marlins and the Cuban-American community in Miami. Yes, Guillen has a right to express his political opinions; the Marlins also have a right to protect their product. Considering their new park was built in Little Havana, and the feelings in that city toward Castro, Guillen's words were obviously sensitive and controversial in nature. If the Marlins had continued to ignore the situation, the controversy would have only grown and potentially turned into a public relations disaster for the ballclub.

It does bother me that Major League Baseball was reportedly investigating the situation. There is the possibility it applied pressure to the Marlins to suspend Guillen. If true, this is certainly more problematic, especially considering the existence of this photo of Bud Selig and Orioles owner Peter Angelos with Fidel Castro in 1999, when the Orioles traveled to Cuba for a couple exhibitions. It seems hypocritical to tacitly endorse Castro by letting the Orioles play in Cuba then condemn Guillen for complimenting him.

Guillen will undoubtedly have to make reparations with the Cuban community. "I will do everything to make things better," he said. "I will help the Cuban community, the Latin community, like I always do."

Later on, he said he's learned a valuable lesson: He'll never talk about politics again. I'm not sure that's really the lesson to be learned here, and I would hate to think MLB's agenda is to prevent managers and players from expressing political views, even if uncomfortable or something we might personally disagree with. But there is a lesson that managers and players should have a proper understanding of a team's place in its community. I'm sure Guillen has learned that lesson about Miami. Whether that will be enough to placate the Cuban-American community remains to be seen.

News and notes from Monday's action that won't mention the Red Sox and Yankees showed great grit and determination by finally winning a game ...

First base: Barry good. After an 0-3 start following three one-run losses to the Diamondbacks, the Giants turned to Barry Zito against the Rockies at Coors Field. Of course, he threw his first shutout since 2003 and became just the second left-hander to ever throw a shutout there -- Tom Glavine having done it twice. Even more amazing may have been this 11-pitch at-bat Zito mustered off Esmil Rogers. With Buster Posey and Brandon Belt getting the day off the Giants fielded a lineup with Aubrey Huff batting cleanup, Hector Sanchez fifth and Brandon Crawford seventh. Don't worry, Giants fans: Bruce Bochy said Belt will be back in the lineup when the teams meet again on Wednesday.

Second base: Mets win as Nationals throw it away. I wrote on Sunday about the Mets' patient approach at the plate. They drew six walks on Monday and Mike Baxter's pinch-hit leadoff walk off Henry Rodriguez in the bottom of the ninth led to the winning run. Ruben Tejada laid down a two-strike bunt that Rodriguez threw away to put runners at second and third. Daniel Murphy then singled in Baxter for a 4-3 win. Jon Rauch threw two hitless innings for the win and the Mets bullpen has allowed just one run in 13.1 innings so far.

Third base: Red-hot Fredi. The curious lineup decision of the night belonged to Braves skipper Fredi Gonzalez. He benched Jason Heyward to get Matt Diaz into the lineup, since Diaz was 8-for-15 in his career against J.A. Happ. I suppose playing Diaz is reasonable. But he could have easily moved Martin Prado to third base and put Diaz in left field. Instead, he kept Juan Francisco -- like Heyward a lefty swinger -- in the lineup. Gonzalez's rationale? He wanted to see to how Francisco would fare against a left-handed pitcher in case he's needed later in the season if Chipper Jones can't go. Umm, OK. But why bench Heyward in the season's fourth game? He was 2-for-10 with two walks, a double and triple, hardly a reason to give him a day off. Heyward is still a 22-year-old with superstar potential. Those guys need to play every day. Anyway, the Braves lost 8-3 to the lowly Astros, committed four errors (three by Francisco, the guy Gonzalez had to get in the lineup), they're 0-4 and Gonzalez is undoubtedly the manager on the hottest seat in the bigs right now.

Home plate: Tweet of the day.

I hope Ozzie Guillen clears up His Castro comments. My dad took us away from Cuba for better life in USA.Glad he did.

— Jose Canseco (@JoseCanseco) April 10, 2012

Last year, You Can't Predict Baseball came up with bold predictions for the year. We had a lot of fun coming up with them, and then laughing at how hilariously wrong they were at the end of the year. This year, we're bringing these predictions to SweetSpot, along with explanations for some of them. Keep in mind, these predictions are supposed to be bold, but not insane -- even we know the Orioles aren't going to the playoffs in 2012.

Los Angeles Angels: Kendrys Morales stays healthy all year.

Houston Astros: Bud Norris is top five in K/9 in the NL. We figured something good had to happen to the Astros, right? Norris actually has a pretty nice career K/9.

Oakland Athletics: Yoenis Cespedes is their starting center fielder by Memorial Day.

Toronto Blue Jays: Brandon Morrow makes the jump to elite starting pitcher. He's struck out more than 10 batters per 9 innings two years running, though his ERAs have remained ugly. We think this is the year his results finally match the stuff, especially considering his declining walk rate.

Atlanta Braves: Julio Teheran has more wins than Tim Hudson.

Milwaukee Brewers: Rickie Weeks leads the team in home runs. He was fourth on the team last year, with 20. In front of him were Corey Hart with 26, Ryan Braun with 33, and Prince Fielder with 38. Fielder is gone, and for this prediction we'll assume Braun will miss a third of the year due to a suspension. It's not too bold to think Weeks could pass Hart in 2012.

St. Louis Cardinals: Carlos Beltran outproduces Albert Pujols from last year. Albert Pujols was great last year, but not quite best-player-of-his-generation Albert Pujols. If healthy, it's not absurd to think of Beltran outproducing Pujols' 5.1 WAR in 2011.

Chicago Cubs: Matt Garza isn't their best pitcher. It'll be Ryan Dempster, who had great peripherals but bad results last year.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Aaron Hill will be good again. He was great with them in limited time, and Arizona's park is quite hitter-friendly.

Los Angeles Dodgers: James Loney will be a top-three first baseman in the National League. Many thanks to Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness for somewhat alerting us to this one. We just decided to take it semi-absurdly far.

San Francisco Giants: Madison Bumgarner is their best pitcher. In terms of ERA, he already wasn't very far behind Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, and his K/BB ratio eclipsed theirs by quite a bit.

Cleveland Indians: They'll have the best pitching in the American League Central. We're banking on Ubaldo Jimenez, making a major comeback to something closer to what he was in 2010, and the rest of the staff displaying the good that they did in 2011. We're also counting on the Tigers' starters not being very impressive behind Justin Verlander, which is bold but not quite insane, and the pitching of the White Sox, Twins and Royals not being able to keep up with Cleveland's.

Seattle Mariners: Jesus Montero catches 100-plus games. The Mariners probably aren't going to compete, so why not try and play him where he'll accrue the most value?

Miami Marlins: Despite all their new acquisitions and the hype, they still finish fourth in the NL East. When you think about it, this one isn't so crazy. If Josh Johnson isn't healthy and maybe even if he is their pitching still trails that of Philadelphia, Washington, and Atlanta; even with Heath Bell, we don't think their bullpen is as good, either. Their offense might be better than some of those teams', but the Marlins were quite a bit below league average offensively last year and we're not sure how much Jose Reyes is going to make up for that.

New York Mets: Mike Pelfrey is the worst starter in the NL. Pelfrey's been pretty terrible two of the past three years, and now they're moving the fences in at Citi Field. He was far better in his huge home stadium, but we're guessing with the moved-in walls he'll be significantly worse at Citi. Here at YCPB, we actually don't think the Mets are going to be quite as dire as many are saying, even if they do come in last place in the NL East - but Pelfrey won't be a bright spot.

Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg has a 17-strikeout game.

Baltimore Orioles: Matt Wieters is the best catcher in the AL. A lot of people are so obsessed with Wieters not matching the hype that they didn't notice he became a plus offensive performer last year, to go along with very good defense. His taking the next step isn't that bold as predictions go, especially if Joe Mauer has to move off catcher.

San Diego Padres: Luke Gregerson is a top-three closer in the NL.

Philadelphia Phillies: Cole Hamels is their best starter. And this isn't meant to be a slight to Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee, but considering their ages and the fact that Hamels is pretty darn good himself, plus a possible boost from a contract year...

Pittsburgh Pirates: Charlie Morton is their All-Star.

Texas Rangers: Yu Darvish isn't their best starter -- but he's still good. And we think he'll be pretty good, we just think Derek Holland will become more consistently good, or Matt Harrison will put up numbers like his 2011.

Tampa Bay Rays: James Shields will have no complete games. Predicting someone to have no complete games might not seem bold, but it is when it's a guy who was known as "Complete Game James" last season. Shields did have 11 complete games in 2011, an almost unheard-of number these days, but he had no complete games in 2009 or 2010.

Boston Red Sox: No one hits 30 home runs. This might seem crazy when you consider their great offensive numbers last year, but only one player on their team hit 30 home runs and it was Jacoby Ellsbury with 32.

Cincinnati Reds: Brandon Phillips is the best second baseman in the NL.

Colorado Rockies: Jamie Moyer will have the best HR/9 on the staff.

Kansas City Royals: They reach .500. While their pitching won't be great, their offense will take a big step forward this year. Combined with the rest of their division being the Tigers and some dumpster fires, it's not that difficult to see it happening.

Detroit Tigers: They score fewer runs than they did in 2011. Yes, that’s even with Fielder. It's not improbable that Jhonny Peralta, Alex Avila and Delmon Young regress quite a bit from their numbers with Detroit last year, and that Prince Fielder's production "only" makes up for the offensive loss of Victor Martinez in 2012. They'll still have a very good offense, though.

Minnesota Twins: Joe Mauer hits 15 home runs.

Chicago White Sox: Robin Ventura gets ejected more times than Ozzie Guillen. Look at the state of the White Sox. We'd get ejected too.

New York Yankees: Hiroki Kuroda leads the team in ERA.

You Can't Predict Baseball is an affiliate of the SweetSpot network.

The Marlins have noisily associated themselves with most of the biggest big-name free agents, flirting with Jose Reyes, Albert Pujols, Mark Buehrle and C.J. Wilson. Now, a lot about this smacks of aggressive brand promotion now that the Fish have brought in Ozzie Guillen to manage, changed their look, and anticipate moving into their new stadium next spring. It would be remarkable if they land any one of those four free agents, but the rumors buzzing around their reaching an agreement with the Padres’ Heath Bell could have legs.

Keep in mind that the Marlins could already anticipate their expenses expanding by $15 million from 2011 to 2012 thanks to having back-loaded their multi-year commitments to Hanley Ramirez, Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco and John Buck among others. That’s before getting into the expense of haggling with plenty of arbitration-eligible players; they may sensibly discard the entirely replaceable guys, the Joe Nelson types, as they did before, but doing so might spoil all the good vibrations they’re so busily trying to cultivate among an understandably skeptical fan base.

So even before Larry Beinfest and Mike Hill could start spending some significant chunk of the Lorians’ lucre, you could reasonably expect the Fish to top a $70 million payroll in 2012. We’ll see how far they’re willing to go beyond that, and whether by attaching themselves to some of the market’s biggest stars isn’t just a case of trying to keep their name in the papers with all of the dignity of a D-list socialite chasing after paparazzi instead of the other way around.

The reason Bell might be different has everything to do with their situation and his. Where the aforementioned quartet of big names are all in demand and likely to sign elsewhere for bigger money than the Fish are used to flinging around, Bell may not have quite as much going for him as the free agents in greatest demand.

First, there’s his age. Bell was already almost 30 before he got his break with the Padres after the Mets prematurely ditched him in a ticky-tack trade in 2006 that defied easy rationalization. He’ll be 34 next season, so it isn’t like he’s in the same situation as Jonathan Papelbon or even Ryan Madson. As a result, this represents his first and probably only chance to score an eight-figure multi-year commitment, but his age probably militates against his getting everything he wants.

Also arguing against his getting top dollar is how much benefit he’s gotten from pitching in Petco Park the past five years. Career, he’s allowed just 2.5 runs per nine in San Diego, against 3.8 R/9 everywhere else he’s pitched in the majors. He’s become more of a fly-ball pitcher since coming to the Padres, which can be seen as adapting and exploiting the park’s wide-open spaces, but with that goes a slightly higher rate of homers allowed on the road: 0.6 to 0.4 HR/9, so we aren’t talking about Lidge-like combustibility here, but it’s another cause for concern.

Then there’s his strikeout rate’s decline. It dropped below 30 percent of all opponents’ at-bats for the first time in his Padres career. Given that very few people whiff hitters at that clip forever, it isn’t like last year’s 20 percent K-rate is cause for extreme alarm, since he's still above-average and throwing around 94 mph. But it’s another factor that bidders can talk up while trying to talk down Bell’s price.

Put those three things together, and you can see how Bell could be the kind of quality closer the Marlins would be willing to afford. With the sticky legal situation over the identity of Leo Nunez/Juan Oviedo (aka, the closer to be named later), the have an opening and might be able to hand-wave their way past the various mild causes or concern that go into making a multi-year commitment to Bell. Keep in mind, we have no real idea how the Marlins’ park will play, but Bell’s track record is more than good enough overall to get him major money and a multi-year commitment, even if he doesn’t get beyond an Average Annual Value of $10 million per year in the deal.

Getting three years guaranteed might entail giving up no-trade protection or a guaranteed donation to the team charity or whatever other bits have to be wangled to make everyone happy. Here’s hoping that, both parties willing, this is one rumor that’s going somewhere.

Friday P.M. postscript: This post went up a couple of hours before the announcement that Bell had agreed to terms with the Marlins on a three-year, $27 million deal, a contract that includes provisions for a fourth-year vesting option for another $9 million.

Depending on your point of view, this was wonderful, terrible or significant, or some combination thereof. Naturally, a lot of statheads decried the expense, wailing over Bell's declining strikeout rate -- without noting that it's still higher than league average -- and his fly-ball rate, without observing that it was higher before he had Petco to pitch in, and without anyone having any idea how Municipal Shakedown Stadium will play.

Mostly, the shrieking was over the idea that closers are overpriced and fairly fungible, a point I'm generally in agreement with. Lots of people can and do quite nicely as closers when you give them the opportunity. I wouldn't go so far as to say anybody can close, because it isn't like you want a situational specialist getting over-exposed, and you can't just chuck the notion that some guys just aren't comfortable in the role. But .

But this also goes to Jim Bowden's point, that the Marlins sent a message with this deal. Unlike getting Hanley Ramirez or Josh Johnson or Ricky Nolasco to agree to multi-year deals, those contracts were matters of using the leverage of club control to induce their own players to accept financial security. Signing Bell's different -- they Marlins landed a man on the market, available to all.

You could argue that they paid a premium for that by paying a deal with a $9 million AAV, but Bell got a lot less per annum than Jonathan Papelbon ($12.5 million AAV for four years) for a shorter stretch, and more than Joe Nathan for longer ($7.25 million AAV over two). And as I speculated, they'd get him for less than eight large per year, but offer a third guaranteed year to get him. In essence, the Marlins behaved like an equal competitor on the market, and that's new for them. You can bet players and their agents will notice.

On the other hand, “everybody's doing it” isn't exactly the ultimate in justifications for doing something, even when you're a team with a rep as lousy as the Marlins when it comes to paying people. The ready demand from the smart set is that the Marlins could have gotten somebody else nearly as effective for less. That's a reasonable argument, but only up to a point -- the Hot Stove league doesn't operate like a true open market, because not everyone is available. Trading for alternatives is great to posit in the abstract, liberating some put-upon set-up man robbed of the opportunity to rack up saves, but the teams that employ them have this annoying tendency of wanting to keep them for themselves, or demanding value in trade.

Put it all together, and I think the expense -- and the message it sends -- can't help but improve the Marlins' chances to land another big name in free agency. If it's Albert Pujols or Jose Reyes, that's something. If it's Aramis Ramirez, on the other hand... well, we'll just have to see, won't we?

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

Well, I kind of wish we had taped the Thursday edition of the Baseball Today podcast around midnight ET, when the Tampa Bay Rays won and the Boston Red Sox lost and baseball was never the same. Still a terrific, lively show though with me and Keith Law, with among the topics ...

1. Guest Jim Bowden has strong thoughts about the Red Sox and what they do moving forward, justifying the Braves’ loss and also discussing why the Ozzie Guillen experiment in Miami doesn’t excite him.

2. KLaw and I reminisce about the greatest night in regular season baseball history, arguing with a naysayer that likes football more. Will we remember the Red Sox losing or Dan Johnson?

3. Don’t give the Braves a pass for their collapse, either. We talk Chris Carpenter, Brett Myers, Craig Kimbrel and how the NL wild card was decided.

4. Jose Reyes wins the batting title, but the way he went about it leaves us a bit unsatisfied.

5. We answer a few email questions and then Keith gives his predictions for the first round of the playoffs. Mine are coming on Friday!

So download and listen to a fun Baseball Today podcast for Thursday. Hey, you gotta love baseball. It is awesome.

Eh, not much going in baseball these days, is there? No races to speak of. Keith Law and I were somewhat bored on Wednesday’s Baseball Today, talking about 2012 ... OK, I’m joking! What a day in baseball, and what a show, with these topics:

1. Who is Ryan Lavarnway and does he belong on the Red Sox Mount Rushmore already? Well, let’s see what he does Wednesday! Red Sox and Rays are tied!

2. Braves can’t score, and the Astros are just so awful the Cardinals couldn’t help but win and create an NL wild-card tie as well. There’s only so much Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez can do.

3. The Ozzie Guillen move to Miami is complete, and we express shock -- shock, I tell ya! -- at the level of prospects heading back to the White Sox as compensation.

4. Keith’s awards column gets extra attention, as we debate who should and who will win, while also discussing the interesting comments.

5. Look, we all know there’s gonna be a doubleheader on Thursday, but we preview the Wednesday night games anyway, discussing who’s on the spot.

So download and tune in for Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast, as we had a lot of fun talkin’ baseball. What could be better?

With the reports of a second wild card being a likely possibility for 2013, The Common Man dug through the archives to see how "exciting" the battles for the fifth-best record would have been through the years. He found that a lot of races would have come down to the wire. While I do think it's worth pointing that since many of those teams involved weren't actually in playoff races and thus not always playing their best lineups or resting players and so on, I think we can take this away: Whether you have four playoff teams or five or six or seven, there will always be a tight "race" for the final spot.

• Charlie Saponara has a piece over at the Fire Brand blog called "Apocalypse Boston." Good read. Check it out.
• Jon Weisman reminds us that Hiroki Kuroda apparently utilized his no-trade clause to turn down a trade to the Red Sox at the trade deadline.
• Joey Matschulat projects the Rangers' Division Series roster.
• Did Ryan Braun have the best hitting season in Brewers history?
• Mike McClary of our Tigers blog tells the tale of a season by listing all his weekly comments from the ESPN Power Rankings.
• Dave Gershman takes a look at Ozzie Guillen moving over to the Marlins.
• Pro Ball NW looks at some possible rotation candidates for the Mariners for 2012.

Keith Law resumed our alliance on Tuesday’s Baseball Today podcast and while we tried to ignore what the Boston Red Sox did on Monday, to please producer Jay Soderberg ... well, you’ll have to download and listen! Here are some of the topics:

1. How about those Rays! OK, so we kind of mentioned the team Tampa’s finest is tied with, including the topsy-turvy world of MVP consideration!

2. How about those Cardinals! Their manager certainly played a role in Monday’s defeat, which leaves the Cards in must-win situations Tuesday and Wednesday.

3. Ya gotta love Ozzie Guillen. We discuss an interesting night for the former White Sox manager and who I’d like to see get his old job.

4. Justin Verlander or Doug Fister in the first game of the postseason for Detroit? Hey, it was an actual email, and we discuss the bigger picture. You might be surprised.

5. How can the Twins be fixed for 2012 and beyond? We share thoughts on Ron Gardenhire’s gaggle.

So tune in for Tuesday’s excellent Baseball Today podcast, where we entertain and inform … and even our producer seemed OK with it.

In 1917, the Chicago White Sox won 100 games and the World Series under manager Pants Rowland. A year later, he was fired, unable to get along with owner Charles Comiskey, which is about as surprising as not getting along with a rabid pit bull.

The White Sox ran through 32 managers before hiring Ozzie Guillen in 2004, including some big names, guys who had success before coming to Chicago or would have success after leaving Chicago: Jim Fregosi, Tony La Russa, Bob Lemon, Chuck Tanner, Eddie Stanky, Al Lopez, Paul Richards, Jimmy Dykes … none of them could win the World Series. Ozzie, of course, did it in his second year, managing the Sox to 99 wins and a dominant 11-1 postseason in 2005 that included a sweep of the Houston Astros in the World Series.

But reports out of Chicago indicate Ozzie has managed his last game with the White Sox, as he’ll be “traded” to the Florida Marlins and become their manager as they move into a new ballpark in 2012. Considering this is the organization that sent down Logan Morrison for his tweeting activities, it should prove to be an interesting relationship.

It was time for Ozzie to leave Chicago. He guided the White Sox to another division title in 2008, but finished under .500 in two of the past three seasons. The offense collapsed this season, and while Ozzie can’t be completely blamed for the disastrous seasons from Adam Dunn and Alex Rios, he can perhaps be faulted for the regression of Gordon Beckham, his insistence on batting Juan Pierre leadoff, and his inability to find better solutions other than keeping Dunn and Rios out there day after day. When things go wrong, the best managers show some creativity; Ozzie seemed unable to come up with or try a Plan B.

A change will be good for Chicago. It needs a new skipper with perhaps a more objective assessment of the current personnel, or at least one who isn’t willing to give Pierre 700 plate appearances. General manager Kenny Williams needs to evaluate the current roster and invest in some hitters; Paul Konerko can't be expected to carry this team again.

As for the Marlins, the question: Will Ozzie be a good fit? While he had the “Ozzieball” label from his World Series-winning season in Chicago, that’s not really the way he managed through the years. The White Sox were generally a team that lived and died with the long ball and good starting pitching. His big wins in player development: John Danks and Gavin Floyd became solid major league starters, Bobby Jenks was a rookie closer in 2005, and Alexei Ramirez developed from an error-prone second baseman into a solid shortstop. But for the most part, the Sox relied on veteran players during his tenure.

As a player, Ozzie was one of the greatest hackers in major league history, and the White Sox never finished higher than seventh in the AL in walks under Ozzie. It’s hard to score enough consistently if you’re not getting on base. That’s the issue I would be most concerned about as a Marlins fan. Mike Stanton has a chance to be one of the great hitters in the game, but will he become too aggressive under Ozzie? Morrison is a patient hitter with a lot of upside. Hanley Ramirez needs to get his career resurrected. Is Ozzie the right guy to turn those three guys into an elite 3-4-5 middle of the order?

We'll find out; odds are it will be entertaining either way.

Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast was packed with goodness as Jim Bowden joined me for an interview and Keith Law did his normal thing. Among the topics discussed were:

1. Jim talked about how the Red Sox deserve their current plight -- and won’t make the playoffs -- as well as the impact of the "Moneyball" book.

2. Keith had his own thoughts on the latest from the Red Sox-Rays race and an emailer doesn’t quite understand why the Tigers aren’t AL favorites.

3. Clayton Kershaw looked pretty good to me Tuesday night, but KLaw has reasons -- playing devil’s advocate -- why he’s not the NL Cy Young leader. The name Storm Davis gets mentioned. No, really.

4. We talk managers, as Bob Melvin and Jim Tracy might be sticking around and who knows what will happen with Ozzie being Ozzie.

5. We talk Wednesday’s schedule, which includes a pair of games on ESPN, as we potentially get closer to that Red Sox-Rays one-game playoff next Thursday! How awesome would that be?

Plus: Excellent emails, MLB opening in Japan, the awesome Hector Noesi and so much more on a packed Wednesday edition of Baseball Today! Download the show now!

Mark Buehrle took the mound for the Chicago White Sox against the Cleveland Indians on Wednesday night riding a streak of 18 straight starts with three or fewer runs allowed. Buehrle’s string of exceptional performances goes back to April 22, which means that the last time he was dinged for at least four on the board, Derek Jeter and Jim Thome were early in their milestone pursuits, Buster Posey's left ankle was still intact, and everybody was asking, “What’s wrong with the Red Sox?”

Trivia buffs take note: The last White Sox pitcher to go 18 straight starts with three or fewer runs surrendered was Frank Elmer Smith of the 1909 squad. Smith went by the nickname “Piano Mover” because he made a few extra bucks toting Steinways during the offseason. According to his SABR Baseball Biography Project profile, Smith liked to brag that he could “carry a baby grand up four flights of stairs without a rest.”

In contrast, Buehrle is making $14 million in the final installment of a four-year, $56 million contract. All he has to do is help make White Sox chairman Jerry Reinsdorf and general manager Kenny Williams forget that they’re paying Adam Dunn $12 million to slug .296 with a .590 OPS.

As it turns out, Buehrle’s streak ended when he allowed four runs on 12 hits over 7 1/3 innings in a 4-1 loss to Cleveland at U.S. Cellular Field. He was outpitched by the Indians’ Fausto Carmona, and the White Sox missed out on a chance to move into second place for the first time since April 12 and pass the Indians in the standings for the first time since April 4. The Piano Mover and the Tribe are both safe for the time being.

At the risk of flogging the same theme ad nauseam, it’s tough for the White Sox to generate any momentum with two of their three de facto “boppers’’ making such negligible contributions. Paul Konerko ranks among the American League’s top five with 27 homers and a .556 slugging percentage. But center fielder Alex Rios, hitting .213 with seven homers in 413 at-bats, took a seat again for Alejandro De Aza, a fringe big leaguer who at least brings energy and some speed to the mix. As for Dunn, he singled in three at-bats to raise his average to .164. Just to put that in perspective, Dunn could go 15-for-his-next-15 and he still wouldn’t be hitting .200.

Former Indians outfielder Jody Gerut dropped by the Indians’ broadcast booth during the middle innings and did his best to show compassion, but he was still at a loss for words to describe the anguish that Dunn must be feeling.

“If you asked him now, he would probably say he’d have a better shot right-handed,” Gerut said.

Throw in third baseman Brent Morel’s four walks and .272 on-base percentage in 88 games and the recent loss of catcher A.J. Pierzynski to a fractured wrist, and the White Sox are one offensively challenged bunch. They’ve scored 488 runs this season, fewer than Cleveland and Baltimore. They rank 12th among the 14 American League teams with 60 stolen bases, and dead last with a 61 percent success rate. And they’re 11th with a .242 batting average with runners in scoring position.

The White Sox have won nine of their past 12 games, but it’s been a generally buzz-free ride. After dropping six straight to Boston and New York, the Sox climbed back into the race while beating up on Minnesota, Baltimore and Kansas City. Maybe that’s enough to quicken the pulse of the diehards -- and Hawk Harrelson -- but the Sox rank 19th in the majors in attendance, so they haven’t exactly captured the imagination of a city. Your average Chicagoan is more consumed by Jay Cutler’s training camp and Ryan Dempster’s true feelings about a return to action by Carlos Zambrano.

The White Sox’s staff ace couldn’t do much to change that Wednesday. Cleveland manager Manny Acta started five lefty hitters against the left-handed Buehrle, and the lineup configuration paid off. Buehrle’s stuff was up in the zone for much of the evening, and the Indians routinely took him up the middle or the opposite way for base hits.

Carmona, meanwhile, came within two outs of his first complete game this season and pulled the Tribe within two games of first-place Detroit. These Indians have their flaws, but they’re feisty to the point of Eckstein-ian.

So where is the American League Central race headed? It’s the only three-team scrum remaining in all of baseball, but it remains compelling for all the wrong reasons: The Indians, with 511 runs scored and 507 allowed, are the only team in the division with a positive run differential.

As Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune recently pointed out, it might be time for manager Ozzie Guillen to find a way to cram a little more Buehrle into the equation. The White Sox are 16-8 in Buehrle’s starts and 45-53 behind the rest of their rotation. If Guillen can squeeze an extra start or two from Buehrle by pitching him every fifth day, rather than every five or even six games, it might be worth considering.

But if the Sox can’t figure out a way to score more runs, rotational machinations are the least of their concerns. Winning the AL Central is going to be like toting a piano to the top of the Sears Tower.

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An impartial observer might take a snapshot of the American League Central and conclude that the race is an exercise in wheel-spinning. But that’s not entirely correct: The four teams at the top just have no idea if they’re coming or going.

The Twins were treated to a combination wedgie and noogie in a 20-6 loss to Texas on Monday and are now 47-55. But they seem strangely resistant to entertaining offers for free agent-to-be Michael Cuddyer, a solid righty bat, terrific clubhouse guy and crafty situational reliever in blowouts who might net them a decent prospect haul in return. It’s nice to be loyal and cling to hope based on some recent fast finishes, but you have to wonder if Twins general manager Bill Smith is missing an opportunity to capitalize on a valuable asset here.

The Indians, who beat the Angels 3-2 on a walk-off single by rookie second baseman Jason Kipnis, have an AL Central-best run differential of plus-2. They began the season at 30-15, but injuries to Shin-Soo Choo and Grady Sizemore and an overall lack of lineup depth have stalled their momentum and left fans wondering when the magic ends and the reality check begins. Meanwhile, GM Chris Antonetti continues to look for a bat on a limited budget.

The White Sox, the American League’s answer to the enigmatic Reds, are always a stinker away from an Ozzie Guillen expletive-fest. And general manager Kenny Williams, a guy who lives to make waves at the trade deadline, seems genuinely conflicted. Amid rumors that he’s talking to St. Louis about a deal for young outfielder Colby Rasmus, Williams appeared on ESPN Radio in Chicago and said he might “turn over the entire roster’’ if the White Sox don’t make a move here shortly.

That leaves us with the division leaders in Detroit, where Justin Verlander might or might not have enough help in the rotation to get the Tigers to the postseason, and GM David Dombrowski and manager Jim Leyland might or might not be on the spot with owner Mike Illitch in the final year of their contracts.

It was only fitting that when the Tigers and White Sox met in a big AL Central showdown Monday night at U.S. Celluar Field, all the division’s warts were on display. Between home runs by Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski, the Chicago crowd was treated to botched pop flies, a muffed pickoff, a near-collision between Juan Pierre and Alex Rios in the outfield and a wild pitch that careened off Pierzynski’s shinguard and was turned into an out at second base by reliever Jesse Crain.

The Tigers ran out four pitchers -- Duane Below, Chance Ruffin, Charlie Furbush and David Purcey -- with a combined 215 2/3 innings in the big leagues. The vast majority of those belong to Purcey. And White Sox starter Mark Buehrle, miracle of miracles, actually issued a leadoff walk in the fifth inning.

Is this any way to run a pennant race?

Take an informal survey of people in baseball front offices, and their predictions for the division generally fall along the same lines. Just about everyone favors Chicago’s pitching staff, but the White Sox are going to have a hard time winning if Adam Dunn (.159 batting average) and Rios (.301 slugging percentage, 23 RBIs) continue to look this pathetic at the plate. If Dunn plans to hit .200 this season, he better have some Ted Williams-caliber mashing in store for August and September.

Offensively, the Tigers win the Best in Show award. Detroit ranks fifth in the league in runs scored, and Miguel Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta, Alex Avila, Brennan Boesch and Victor Martinez all have an OPS north of .800.

The Tigers have been trolling for a front-end starter. But with Ubaldo Jimenez and James Shields pretty much un-acquirable, they might have to stand pat or settle for a back-end guy to complement their top four of Verlander, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello and Brad Penny.

It could be worse: Scherzer, although up-and-down this season, has generated a swing-and-miss percentage of 9.3 -- better than Matt Cain, Jered Weaver and David Price. And Porcello has quietly gone 4-0 with a 3.33 ERA in July. He’s still 22 years old, remember?

In a race this chaotic, the schedule can make a difference. While the Tigers are finished playing Boston and New York this season, the White Sox welcome the Red Sox and Yankees to Chicago for seven games starting Wednesday. As for the feisty Indians, they have 10 games against Boston, Texas and Detroit in early August. That’s their sink-or-swim stretch.

“It’s a weak division,’’ said a National League personnel man, “but I’ve liked the Tigers all year. Never underestimate a team with a good offense and an ace [starter]. You just don’t have long losing streaks.’’

And who cares about labels? Dunn can’t step to the plate these days without another out-of-town broadcaster referring to him as “the struggling Adam Dunn.’’ But as he told Yahoo! Sports in a recent interview, he still enjoys playing, “Even though I suck.’’

Say this for the Big Donkey: He’s come to the right place.

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Injuries were the lead focus of Thursday’s Baseball Today podcast, but Keith Law and I also found time for some upbeat discussion as well. Here are a few of the reasons why you should listen:

1. The Diamondbacks lost Stephen Drew, but their offense will survive. The question is about their defense.

2. The Tigers picked up a key player and again the question is about the team’s defense.

3. If KLaw was running the Mets, would he be showing Jose Reyes the proverbial door along with Carlos Beltran?

4. Ozzie Guillen went nuts -- again -- on Wednesday, but we kind of like his behavior. Should the White Sox?

5. It’s a day of aces in baseball, but our focus starts with a right-hander with an ERA on the wrong side of 5.

Plus: Excellent emails, the not-so-excellent Aubrey Huff, late-developing lefty pitchers, prospect Leonys Martin and a ton more on Thursday’s Baseball Today podcast!

“Just stay positive”
--Ozzie Guillen on Twitter, April 21

“Great time the best thing we no talk about baseball”
--Ozzie Guillen, April 25

“Iam in very very bad mood stay away from me the most you can”
--Ozzie Guillen, June 7

It hasn’t been the most enjoyable season for White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen. On May 6, the team stood 11-22 after struggling through a 4-18 stretch that included several bullpen implosions. They clawed back to 42-42 and 43-43, but after losing 4-2 against Royals rookie Danny Duffy on Tuesday night, the White Sox are 47-50.

Of course, in the AL Central, that means they’re in the thick of the pennant race. Which is remarkable considering:

• Adam Dunn is hitting .158. That’s not a misprint. Yes, he draws some walks and has hit a few home runs. HE’S HITTING .158! Believe it or not, that wouldn’t be a major league record for a hitter who received at least 300 plate appearances. Bill Bergen hit .139 for the 1909 Brooklyn Superbas. Bergen is, quite simply, the worst hitter in major league history to have any kind of significant career. He had three extra-base hits in 346 at-bats that year and hit .170 in his 11-year career. The point is it’s not a good thing to be mentioned in the same breath as Bill Bergen … especially if you’re a designated hitter making $12 million.

• Alex Rios has a worse OPS than Dunn. Yes, he’s worse than the guy having one of the worst seasons ever. And Rios hit fifth in the lineup on Tuesday. I don’t know whether to laugh at Ozzie or cry with him over a beer. Oh, Rios is making $12.5 million this season. And you thought Cubs fans had it bad.

• Rookie third baseman Brent Morel entered the season with high hopes. He’s hitting .240 with one home run and three walks in over 200 at-bats. His OPS is lower than Rios’.

• Top starter John Danks began the season 0-8 without a win in his first 11 starts and is now on the DL with an oblique strain.

So what’s it mean? I’m picking the White Sox to win the AL Central, of course.

Call me stubborn. I picked the Sox at the start of the season.

OK, five reasons they can win the Central:

1. They have the best rotation in the division. The Twins actually have a slightly better rotation ERA, but once you adjust for the homer-friendly confines of the Cell, the White Sox have the best rotation. Detroit may have the best one starter, but Justin Verlander is the only starter they have with an ERA under 4.40. Chicago’s rotation depth will prove key as the season winds down.

2. Once Danks returns from the DL, they have six starters. Edwin Jackson is rumored to be on the trading block. He’s a free agent after the season (as is Mark Buehrle), so he may not bring back much. But maybe the Sox could find a match with another contender and get a hitter with an average above .158 or on-base percentage above .260.

3. The bullpen is deep and solid. The bullpen ERA was 3.36 entering Tuesday, fifth in the AL. The Indians were 3.29 and the Tigers 4.78. But I like Chicago’s power arms: 258 strikeouts in 254 innings, versus Cleveland’s 224 in 276 2/3 innings. Indians closer Chris Perez’s poor 23/18 strikeout/walk ratio is a warning sign (as I mentioned when he was selected to the All-Star team) and he’s allowed runs in three of his past four appearances, drawing two losses in the process.

4. Paul Konerko is raking. He’s not Jose Bautista or Adrian Gonzalez, but he gives the White Sox one of the best hitters in the league. And in 2011, with a deep pitching staff and two hitters like Konerko and Carlos Quentin, you just may be able to score enough runs.

5. It’s the AL Central!

OK, look, there’s no way Dunn, Rios and Morel will continue to be this bad. They’ll either play better or Ozzie will start playing other guys. Otherwise we’ll soon see a tweet like this:

“Moving Juan Pierre to fifth hole. Don’t laugh hes one of our best hitters.”
--Ozze Guillen, July 29

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