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The Milwaukee Brewers have returned all five rotation starters from 2011, a season that was almost certainly the best in franchise history other than 1982. It's a solid group that puts Milwaukee in position to reclaim its NL Central title. It is not, however, a rotation that should be considered elite or ranked among the 10 best in baseball. I put that out on Twitter last week and Brewers fans came attacking like badgers. Wisconsin badgers, I guess. So I called Tom Haudricourt, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's veteran Brewers beat writer and asked him for some perspective.

"They went so long without any starting pitching to speak of," Haudricourt said about Brewers fans, "and now they finally have some and they want some credit for it."

The Brewers' passionate fan base is rushing to fill Miller Park at a pace that has team officials expecting to exceed last season's franchise-record attendance mark of more than 3 million fans. Those fans vigorously defend reigning NL MVP Ryan Braun as if lab test results showing the presence of exogenous testosterone simply never existed. I realize watching Prince Fielder go 5-for-12 with two home runs to begin his Tigers career may send fans running and screaming into the streets of Sheboygan Falls but let's not bet the bratwurst that this 2012 rotation is a pass into the postseason.

Good versus great can be oddly subjective in baseball but a simple numbers crunch is a fair start. After the wave of Twitter outrage from Brewers fans, ESPN Stats & Information analyst Lee Singer ran some numbers and it turned out my suspicion was correct: Using 2011 Wins Above Replacement totals from Baseball-Reference.com for the five pitchers in each 2012 Opening Day rotation, Milwaukee's group does not rank among baseball's 10 best.

2012 starting rotations according to 2011 bWAR
1. Phillies, 22.5
2. Angels, 18.8
3. Tigers, 17.7
4. Yankees, 17.6
5. Diamondbacks, 16.5
6. Rays, 15.3
7. Red Sox, 14.8
8. Giants, 14.2
9. Dodgers, 13.5
10. Nationals, 12.9
11. White Sox, 11.9
12. Brewers, 11.7

"They're in the top group in the National League," Haudricourt said. "There might be other rotations that individually may rank better in across-the-board stats but this rotation just seems to work well in conjunction with their late-inning bullpen." After watching countless closers either land on the disabled list or implode to begin 2012, the Brewers' duo of Francisco Rodriguez and John Axford seems worth its weight in gold.

Jose Veras, acquired from Pittsburgh for Casey McGehee last December, gives Milwaukee a third reliable reliever. "Ron Roenicke seems really comfortable pulling the starters and giving it to the bullpen," Haudricourt said. "Sometimes your rotation is just better than its stats because of what it does in conjunction with the bullpen. They're very protective in terms of pitch counts -- you won't see any staggering 125- or 130-pitch counts." Indeed, the reliability of that bullpen and Roenicke's willingness to use it is one reason why Milwaukee pitchers posted only one complete game in 2011 but all five Brewers rotation members started at least 28 games and Milwaukee used only six starting pitchers all season.

Last season, Yovani Gallardo allowed more than three earned runs only three times in his last 16 starts. Zack Greinke had a 2.61 ERA over his final 16 starts. Gallardo, however, can't beat the Cardinals, the Brewers' NL Central rival who have now won five of their past six games in Milwaukee. Following last Friday's Opening Day drubbing in which he allowed three homers in a four-batter span, Gallardo is now 1-9 in 13 starts against St. Louis with a 6.24 ERA, including last year's postseason.

Saturday, Greinke continued to be unbeatable in a Brewers uniform at Miller Park. He's 12-0, 2.91 at home for the Brewers in the regular season with 126 strikeouts in 102 innings. He was, however, just 5-6, 4.70 on the road last season. Rotation aces win on the road and they win critical games against big rivals. Greinke said last month that he's "very comfortable" in Milwaukee and called the organization "amazing" but he's a free agent after the season, just hired a new agent last week and if you don't think Matt Cain's new $127.5 million contract just shot Greinke's price through the roof you're kidding yourself.

Shaun Marcum is also a free agent after this season. After going just 3-4 in 11 starts last August and September, Marcum turned in a 0-3, 14.90 postseason. Marcum was acquired from Toronto for top prospect Brett Lawrie, who may be headed toward superstardom with the Blue Jays. The deal could end up rivaling the 1992 trade that sent Gary Sheffield to the Padres for Ricky Bones, Matt Mieske and Jose Valentin as the worst in Brewers history. "When they traded for Marcum they had no idea they were going to be able to get Greinke and they didn't have enough starters," Haudricourt explained. "There's no question the trade is going to work out better in the long run for Toronto and the Brewers readily admit that. But they had close to an 'all-in' year, last year and they just decided to go for it. They knew it was going to bite them in the end."

Any organization which goes "all-in" deserves support from its fan base and kudos to the Brewers brass for not simply claiming tied hands. But if that gamble doesn't pay off tension can increase as the window narrows. Gallardo, Greinke, Marcum, Randy Wolf and Chris Narveson make up one of the National League's most competitive rotations, one certainly capable of bringing the postseason back to Milwaukee this year. Let's keep in mind, however, that it's a somewhat thin division in a league that fell another step behind the American League this winter.

Steve Berthiaume hosts "Baseball Tonight" on ESPN. Follow Steve on Twitter @SBerthiaumeESPN.

Mark Simon and myself joined forces on Friday's Baseball Today. Before you listen, however, take a few seconds to go to podcastawards.com and vote for Baseball Today as the best sports podcast -- we're one of 10 finalists. Now, things we discussed:

1. Another crazy game in the AL with a bunch of statistical quirks. Jim Leyland's plan worked out and Justin Verlander was good enough to get the win.

2. The NL game wasn't nearly as exciting, but Randy Wolf was excellent to get the Brewers even in the series.

4. Mark and I discuss the best League Championship Series ever. Not surprisingly, Mark prefers the 1986 NLCS, but which one do I rank No. 1?

5. We discuss a great email from a reader: Pitchers have struggled this postseason. Are they tired from pitching more in the regular season?

All that plus Simon Says, previewing the weekend action, the Cubs, CC Sabathia to the Rangers and more on Friday's Baseball Today. Enjoy the game and the weekend.

Today's postseason question: Who should be the Brewers' No. 1 starter?

Like the Philadelphia Phillies, the Milwaukee Brewers have the luxury of a deep rotation. While none of their top four starters quite match up statistically with the Phillies' three aces, they run four deep with Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum, Randy Wolf and Yovani Gallardo. You can make a case that any of them deserve to be that guy drawing two starts -- if needed -- in the Division Series.

The Brewers haven't officially announced anything, but it appears they've set it up for Greinke to go in Game 1. He'll start Saturday, but isn't scheduled to start again during the regular season. Marcum starts Monday, followed by Wolf and Gallardo. Fifth starter Chris Narveson likely moves to the bullpen for the postseason.

Right now, the Brewers lead the Diamondbacks for the No. 2 position in the NL by one win. If that holds and the Braves win the wild card, the Brewers open against Atlanta. If Arizona passes Milwaukee and the Braves win the wild card, the Brewers open with the Phillies. If the Cardinals win the wild card, the Brewers will play the Diamondbacks.

Zack Greinke: 15-7, 3.75 ERA, leads NL with 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings, has 2.29 ERA and .222 average allowed in the second half. Greinke has allowed more than two runs just once in his past 12 starts and, as the K rate indicates, has the best stuff on the Milwaukee staff. Two issues: He has never pitched in the postseason and there are questions about how he'll handle the pressure. Also, he has pitched more than seven innings just twice all season, so he is unlikely to go deep into games. He doesn't walk many guys but runs up high pitch counts that can lead to early exits.

Shaun Marcum: 13-7, 3.31 ERA, .225 average allowed on the season, crushes right-handed batters (.192/.238/.321). Marcum has been consistent all season, although he has had two starts in September in which he allowed six runs (to the Rockies) and five runs (to the Phillies), both in Milwaukee. Marcum relies heavily on his cut fastball and it is excellent, but like Greinke, he has never appeared in the postseason.

Randy Wolf: 13-10, 3.61 ERA. When he's on, Wolf can be tough -- he has had 11 starts allowing zero runs or one run, as many as Marcum and four more than Greinke. As a left-hander, he could be the key guy if the Brewers face the Braves, who have the lowest average in the National League against left-handed pitching (.229). Wolf started twice for the Dodgers in the 2009 playoffs, allowing five runs over nine innings.

Yovani Gallardo: 17-10, 3.60 ERA. Gallardo's last two starts, against the Phillies and Reds, were dominant: 13 innings, five hits, three walks, 25 strikeouts. If you want the hot arm, he may be the guy. But he has allowed nine home runs in four starts in September. His curve and slider can make hitters like silly, but he can hang those pitches at times. It's also worth noting that he has a 1.75 ERA in 10 starts this season on five days' rest, but a 3.98 ERA on four days' rest, so he may be the starter to benefit the most with more rest between starts.

No matter how the Brewers line up their rotation, it's one of the things to like about them this postseason: You'd be confident with any of the four guys starting the first game of a series ... or pitching the final game of a series.

In Saturday’s slate of interleague play, the Brewers-Red Sox game was intriguing not only for its matchup of two of baseball’s best left-handed starters in Jon Lester and Randy Wolf, but also because it could be a preview of this year’s World Series. The Red Sox own the American League’s best record, while the Brewers have been one of baseball’s hottest teams, going 26-13 in their past 39 games.

Boston won the series opener soundly Friday by a score of 10-4, but in the battle of the southpaws Saturday night, Wolf came out on top as the Brewers beat the Red Sox 4-2. It wasn’t for lack of trying by the Red Sox, who pounded out nine hits but managed only two runs. Milwaukee’s lineup managed to get the best of Lester early, with back-to-back home runs in the first inning belted by Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart, as well as another homer hit by former Sox George Kottaras in the third inning.

This matchup got me thinking more about left-handed players and the increasing reliance on them. For centuries, left-handedness was looked at as deviant -- the word “sinister” is derived from "sinistra," which means "left-handed" in Latin. Nowadays you’re more likely to find a parent trying to teach a kid to be a switch-hitter rather than forcing him to write with his right hand.

Approximately 10 percent of the population is left-handed, but lefties are disproportionately represented in the major leagues. A number of clubs have lefty or switch-hitting-heavy batting orders. In the American League alone, Boston, Cleveland, Seattle and Minnesota all come to mind immediately. Some of the game’s most dominant pitchers have been southpaws, both historically (Sandy Koufax, Randy Johnson, Warren Spahn) and currently (Lester, David Price, Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia).

In addition to the lefty-versus-lefty pitching matchup, another intriguing aspect to the game was the contrast of Boston’s lefty-heavy lineup, versus the strong rightward lean in Milwaukee. Boston had four lefty or switch-hitting batters in their lineup, a strategy that usually works well against right-handed pitchers but is no guarantee of success against lefties. Lester was 9-2 with a 3.73 ERA going into Saturday night’s game, but Milwaukee has done well against left-handed pitchers over the past several seasons. Whatever left-handed mojo Lester had working against AL teams didn’t seem to faze the Brewers’ lineup.

Boston got off to an infamously bad start this season, but has worked overtime to let all the Vegas bookies who gave them short odds to win it all this year know their predictions were not in vain. Meanwhile, perhaps the only thing standing between Milwaukee and their second pennant is the Philadelphia Phillies. The Brewers are 2-1 against the Phillies so far and won’t play them again until the beginning of September, but with Zack Greinke back from the DL, the Brewers’ chances of playing in October are looking better and better with every series.

Interleague play is sometimes looked at as a distraction, a chore, or a chance to play some games that your team doesn’t “have” to win. From 1997 to 2002, each team played against teams from their counterpart division (e.g., AL Central versus NL Central). Now teams play against teams from any division. I have never been a huge fan of interleague play. Growing up in an American League city, I loved the terra incognita feel of seeing the National League team for perhaps the first time during the World Series. It was like hanging out with the foreign exchange student in high school: Can you speak English? I like your uniform. Wow, pitchers bat where you come from?

As I have gotten older, I have come to appreciate interleague play a little bit more. The chance to see two teams who could likely face each other in the World Series is one of the happy coincidences of the expanded interleague schedule. If we do have a Brewers-Red Sox World Series, it’ll be fascinating to see how left-handed hitter David Ortiz fares against a team with two southpaws in its starting rotation. Over his career, Ortiz has been inconsistent in his performance against left-handed pitching. While he had the chance to see Wolf’s stuff Saturday, going 1-for-3 with a walk, he hasn’t faced southpaw Chris Narveson. In a seven-game series, he might have to face both of them.

I’m not sure if we could term the Red Sox sinistrophiles or not, but they did rely on their lefties up to the bitter end Saturday night, even sending in switch-hitting Drew Sutton -- batting lefty, of course -- as a pinch hitter in the bottom of the ninth with two outs. It didn’t produce the heroic ending they might have hoped for: Sutton grounded out to Prince Fielder who, yes, is also left-handed. Features like that get me to thinking it could be a very gauche World Series, in a manner of speaking.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Susan Petrone writes about the Cleveland Indians for the SweetSpot network at It's Pronounced 'Lajaway'. If you follow her on Twitter, she might say something that will amuse you.

Why didn't the Dodgers offer arbitration to Randy Wolf? Frank McCourt address this question and many, many more in Jon Weisman's wide-ranging interview.

"I think that the downside wouldn't have been horrible," McCourt said, "because he's a very good pitcher, and he pitched very well for us and he was a model citizen. From the area, really classy young man and so forth. But the judgment was made, and again, judgments are judgments. They're not perfect. No one has a crystal ball.

"I, by the way, can see both sides of this debate, very, very clearly. To me this is one really good baseball debate, in terms of 'Do you or don't you.' I think, like I was saying before, what would have happened (if we had offered arbitration), maybe Randy Wolf knows, but I don't. And I don't think the downside would have been bad for the organization, because he's a good pitcher and a good guy, but I think that the judgment was made that we (could) do even better for the club."

That decision will certainly be tested, as will the one with Hudson. The second baseman's signing last week of a one-year, $5 million contract with Minnesota might have vindicated the Dodgers' decision on him, since Hudson could potentially have earned twice that amount in salary arbitration, based on the typical raise awarded to an arbitration-eligible player who earned $8 million the year before.

The roughly $5 million the Dodgers saved can help make up for the lost draft picks had Hudson refused arbitration -- after all, the chances of a low first-round pick earning back the team's investment in him, plus $5 million, aren't all that high -- while the combination of Blake DeWitt, Jamey Carroll and Ronnie Belliard could come close to approximating Hudson's 2010 value, while saving another $2.5 million or so.

Arbitration for veteran players is a losing proposition for the club, because the player will be paid for what he's done (and earned) rather than what he'll do (and should earn). There was a time, not so long ago, when clubs would offer arbitration to essentially anybody who could play reasonably well, regardless of the ultimate cost.

Those days are gone.

If Orlando Hudson wound up getting $5 million but he'd have cost the Dodgers $10 million, doesn't that mean they would have overpaid by $5 million. Well, that depends on how you look at it. Maybe he'll actually be worth $8 million, in which case they would have been overpaying by only $10 million. Or he might actually be worth $10 million.

Wolf who presumably would have been in line for at least $8 million and probably more in arbitration, and wound up signing with the Brewers for three years and $30 million. The Dodgers probably miscalculated here, because if Wolf's agent knew a contract like that was out there, they probably wouldn't have accepted arbitration and the Dodgers would have picked up a couple of draft picks, essentially for free.

But that's what McCourt means by "judgments." In the case of Hudson the Dodgers' judgment was probably correct; in the case of Wolf it probably wasn't. The trick is to avoid a one-size-fits-all mindset, but could a group of reasonable people have known that Wolf would get 30 million and Hudson only five?

I don't know. I do look at the Dodgers' roster and see only a few question marks:

1. Will James Loney hit like a first baseman is supposed to?
2. Will Joe Torre find a gem among all those second base candidates?
3. Who will be the Dodgers' No. 5 starter?

Yes, there would be just one question mark if the Dodgers had ponied up for Wolf and Hudson, and the Dodgers would be the clear favorites to win the West (again). But if McCourt really is plowing all that Wolf/Hudson money into the future, the departure of those two short time Dodgers will be hardly remembered.

As Larry Stone writes, all those free-agent bargains that everyone was expecting might not actually be there:

I got a hint of that before the winter meetings when a couple of GMs complained privately about the Phillies' signing of third baseman Placido Polanco to a three-year, $18 million deal. They were dismayed that Polanco, who hadn't played third-base regularly since 2002, got three years.

Then the winter meetings started, producing more deals that were groaners for teams hoping to sneak in a bargain or two. The one that seems to be getting the most grief is Houston's three-year, $15 million contract for reliever Brandon Lyon. There were eyebrows raised over other deals given to non-closing relievers, who once upon time were a breed that teams could pick up cheaply on the free-agent market. But LaTroy Hawkins (two years, $7.5 million), Billy Wagner ($7 million guaranteed) and Lyon are making teams wonder about that. And when Brad Penny, coming off two lousy years, gets $7.5 million, and Rich Harden, who can never stay healthy, gets $6.5 million plus incentives, and Randy Wolf gets $29.75 over three, then it's looking like a definite seller's market.

I'm not so sure about that. There was some crazy stuff last year. Especially Bobby Abreu signing for $5 million guaranteed.

I mean, sure: the relievers have been getting too much. If there's one thing that GMs still haven't figured out well enough, it's that relief pitchers are highly fungible. That said, only the Lyon contract is patently ridiculous. Hawkins is solid, and Wagner isn't far removed from being one of the game's better relievers. Penny was hurt in 2008 and terribly unlucky in 2009 (until he joined the Giants, for whom he was incredibly lucky), but he's been a good pitcher for a long time.

Polanco? He's been worth about $40 million over the last three years; does $18 million over the next three years really seem out of line? No, he hasn't played third base lately. But he has played third base, and played it well.

Wolf? He's been worth $22 million over the last two years; does $30 million over the next three seem out of line? Yeah, a little bit. It's not crazy, though.

I'm not ready to draw any conclusions yet, except that baseball guys still overvalue relievers who throw hard. And we're not talking gigantic amounts of money here. There hasn't been a single contract given out this winter that ranks among the 20 worst free-agent deals of the last five years. Maybe we'll see one, still. But we haven't, yet. In the old days -- I mean, like two or three years ago -- the baseball teams wildly overspent. Last year, maybe they overcompensated a bit because of the economy. Now, everyone seems to discovered a natural balance. It's strange, all this sanity.

Along with news of today's big deal, a bit of analysis:

Another one bites the dust.
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Tom MihalekRandy Wolf reportedly inked a three-year deal worth just under $30 million with the Brewers.


An already weak crop of free agent starters just took another hit as left-hander Randy Wolf has reportedly inked a three-year deal deal worth just under $30 million with the Milwaukee Brewers.

--snip--

As a Type A free agent, it was believed that he might once again struggle to find a team willing to offer him a multi-year deal as the signing club would be forced to surrender draft pick compensation to Los Angeles.

There was even talk that Wolf might be better served to accept arbitration and return on yet another one-year deal.

The perennially short-sighted Dodgers, however, were worried Wolf would accept and didn’t want to pay him the $8-10 million it was believed he could earn via arbitration.

As such, the club foolishly chose not to offer him arbitration and he immediately became one of the most desirable free agents on the market.

I don't know if the Dodgers are "perennially short-sighted," but this does seem an odd decision. Isn't giving up Wolf for nothing (except a bit of payroll relief) worse than the other two possibilities? Wouldn't a fairly reasonable one-year deal have been the best thing for a rich club like the Dodgers? Well, we'll see what their rotation looks like in a few months.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers' loss is not necessarily the Brewers' gain. Wolf's contract necessarily calls to mind Jeff Suppan's. Three years ago, he signed a four-year deal worth $42 million. Since then, he's 29-34 with a 4.93 ERA. He's gotten worse every season, with another yet to come. He was almost 32 when he signed the deal; Wolf is 33. Suppan was hailed for his ability to "eat innings"; Wolf is supposed to do the same (even though he's topped 200 innings only four times).

Wolf and Suppan are far from perfect comparables. Suppan's strikeout rates were low, and his strikeout-to-walk ratios unimpressive. Wolf's strikeout rates are fine, his ratios the same. We know that strikeout pitchers age better than finesse pitchers, generally.

The Suppan contract was simply foolish, a product of its times. We'll not see its like again, or at least not often. Is Wolf's contract the last of its kind, too? Probably not. Wolf's contract does suggest that the rich teams will not get all the good players. All or most of the great ones, sure. But it's not hard for a small-market team like the Brewers to justify overspending by just a million or two a year, and often that's all it takes to get a guy signed.

Wolf's contract also suggests something far more interesting about baseball's economics. But that something will have to wait for another post ...

(H/T: BTF's Newsstand)

Joe Torre has chosen Vicente Padilla as his Game 2 starter, and Dave Cameron thinks that is one big mistake:

Padilla has pitched better than anyone could have expected since joining the Dodgers, running a 3.40 FIP in seven starts, then shutting out the Cardinals in the first round. However, Padilla has a long track record of having significant problems against left-handed batters.

--snip--



This isn’t some small sample fluke. Padilla will always struggle against LHBs with his repertoire. And, wouldn’t you know, the Phillies have some pretty good left-handed hitters. Between Shane Victorino, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Raul Ibanez, Padilla’s going to be staring down one of the best collections of left-handed bats in the game.



I understand the desire to play the hot hand, and Padilla is throwing better in LA than he has in years, but this is still a really bad match-up for him. In this case, Torre’s simply weighting recent performance far too heavily. Pitching well or not, he’s still penciling in Vicente Padilla for two starts in the NLCS, and that’s not a good decision.

I can't agree more. There's a tendency for managers, especially when he's got a new and suddenly successful player, to believe that somehow the player has changed. Perhaps due to better coaching, or perhaps due to the proverbial "change of scenery." But as Cameron notes, we're not talking about some kid here. Padilla has been around for a while. In his long and exactly average career, Padilla has struck out roughly six batters per nine innings. In his time with the Dodgers, though -- 46 innings, including his seven zeroes against the Cardinals last week -- he's struck out nearly nine per nine innings.

And that's not just because he switched from the American League to the National; Padilla's spent most of his career in the National League.

If the NLCS goes seven games, Padilla will get two starts and Randy Wolf just one. In his career, the left-handed Wolf has limited left-handed hitters to a .222/.293/.377 line. In the right-handed Padilla's career -- roughly the same length as Wolf's -- he's been knocked around by lefties pretty good: .297/.380/.479. Those numbers are dramatic. Against lefties, Padilla's batting average allowed is higher than Wolf's on-base average allowed, and his on-base average allowed higher than Wolf's slugging average.

The Dodgers would seem to have two big advantages in this series: they have many right-handed hitters to counter the Phillies' many left-handed starting pitchers; and they have many left-handed starting pitchers to counter the Phillies' many left-handed hitters. But Torre, based on the grand total of 46 innings, seems willing to give away, to some degree at least, one of those advantages.