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OK, I'll give you Justin Verlander.

I'll even give you Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Austin Jackson.

But five through 25? I think I'll take the Cleveland Indians over the Detroit Tigers.

The Indians beat the Tigers 5-3 on Tuesday, even though Ubaldo Jimenez struggled once again with his control. Relief ace Chris Perez, who criticized Indians fans on Saturday for their lack of support (Cleveland is last in the majors in attendance), was greeted with a thunderous ovation as he came in out of the bullpen in the ninth inning. With two runners on, he struck out Cabrera and got Fielder to ground out.

Just another save. "That's the loudest I've ever been cheered here," Perez said. "I was pumped, the adrenaline was going. It could have gone the other way. I came through. I didn't know which way it was going to go. I was thankful it went the good way."

The good way pushed the Indians to 24-18. The Tigers are 20-22, and for the life of me I can't understand why everyone still thinks Detroit is the better team. Mind you, I'm not saying the Indians are better. I just don't see why the Tigers are better. Just because everyone picked them before the season?

Once you get past those big shiny names on the Tigers' roster, if you want to pinpoint one big difference between the two clubs, it's a little statistic that us sabermetric types love: the old base on balls. The Indians lead the American League with 188 walks, 25 more than any other team; the Tigers have 127 walks, ninth in the league. That patience will go a long ways toward giving Cleveland an offense capable of scoring as many runs as Detroit's (the Indians have outscored the Tigers by one run so far, 184 to 183).

In fact, when you go position by position, you'll see what I mean.

Catcher: Carlos Santana versus Alex Avila. So far, Avila has been unable to match 2011's .366 average on balls in play, the sixth-best average in the majors. Which means he's hitting like he did in 2010. Santana, meanwhile, is a walks machine who hit 27 home runs in 2011.

First base: Casey Kotchman versus Prince Fielder. Obvious edge to Fielder, of course. The most interesting thing about his start (.292/.354/.472) is his walk rate is down from 15.5 percent to 8.5 percent. Part of that is he was intentionally walked 32 times a year ago, just three this year.

Second base: Jason Kipnis versus Ramon Santiago/Ryan Raburn. Please. Big edge to Kipnis with Santiago and Raburn both hitting under .200. Will Detroit make a move here?

Third base: Jack Hannahan/Jose Lopez versus Miguel Cabrera. This may be the first and only time you'll see Jose Lopez mentioned in the same breath as Miguel Cabrera. So far, however, this edge has been minimal. Cabrera is hitting .304/.362/.488, Hannahan .287/.365/.436 but with better defense. According to Defensive Runs Saved, Cabrera has cost the Tigers four runs -- worst among third basemen (tied with Hanley Ramirez).

Shortstop: Asdrubal Cabrera versus Jhonny Peralta. With the Indians preaching plate discipline, check out Cabrera: Last year, 44 walks and 119 strikeouts; this year, 18 walks and just 12 strikeouts. He's hitting .309 with an OBP over .400 but hasn't lost any power. In 2011, he swung at 31 percent of the pitches out of the strike but he has cut that down to 24 percent. Small differences can go a long way. Peralta was a big surprise for Detroit last season but hasn't matched the numbers in the plate or in the field.

Left field: Johnny Damon/Shelley Duncan versus Andy Dirks/Delmon Young. Damon has looked terrible. Dirks has looked great, but too early to evaluate this one.

Center field: Michael Brantley versus Austin Jackson. With his defense and hot start at the plate, Jackson has been as valuable as any player in the American League not named Josh Hamilton.

Right field: Shin-Soo Choo versus Brennan Boesch. This one isn't close and that's with Choo off to a middling start in the power department. Choo has a .391 OBP, Boesch a .271 OBP. Choo is a solid defender while Boesch is slow and lumbering. With his poor start at the plate and poor defense, Boesch has been one of the worst regular in baseball so far. Choo is an underrated asset and I love Manny Acta's decision to move him into the leadoff spot.

Designated hitter: Travis Hafner versus field. Cleveland's designated hitters have six homers and .370 OBP (fourth in the league). Detroit's DHs have one home run and a .238 OBP (13th in the league). Big, big edge to Pronk.

Rotation. With the best pitcher on the planet, Detroit's rotation has posted a 3.87 ERA; without the best pitcher on the planet, Cleveland's rotation has posted a 3.94 ERA. Both teams have played 42 games and Cleveland's starters have thrown 12 more innings. Moving forward, maybe you think Detroit's group will perform better. After all, Doug Fister missed some, Max Scherzer just struck out 15 in game (never mind that the Pirates have been an historic strikeout binge of late) and Rick Porcello will put it together one of these years, because everyone says so. Meanwhile, Ubaldo Jimenez can't throw strikes, Justin Masterson hasn't pitched as well as last year and Derek Lowe is doing it with smoke, mirrors and a deal with the devil. The one thing the Cleveland starters do is keep the ball in the park; they've allowed 20 home runs, second-fewest in the league. Look, maybe you think Scherzer will start pitching better; I'd say so will Masterson. Maybe you're a Porcello believer; I'm not, especially with that infield defense behind him. Lowe is a fluke? Well, let's see how Drew Smyly does as the scouting reports get around on him.

Bullpen. Neither pen has been stellar, as Cleveland's 4.16 ERA ranks 13th in the AL and Detroit's 4.76 ranks 14th. Cleveland's top guys, however, have been pretty solid -- Chris Perez is 14 of 15 in save opportunities while Vinnie Pestano, Joe Smith and Nick Hagadone have pitched well. Detroit's top two of Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit, so dominant a year ago, have both struggled to throw strikes.

I said before the season that I believed the Tigers were drastically overrated. On the Baseball Today podcast late in spring training, I predicted Cleveland would win the division. Unfortunately, when ESPN.com published predictions a few days later, I changed my pick to Detroit. I bought into the hype.

I'm not buying any longer. This division is wide, wide open. (And I haven't even mentioned the White Sox!)

PHOTO OF THE DAY

First base: The 49-year-old speedster. So not only did Jamie Moyer win his second game of the season in Colorado's 6-1 victory over Arizona, but he accomplished the following: (1) He legged out an infield hit that drove in two runs, becoming the oldest major leaguer to record an RBI; (2) He drove in more than he allowed; (3) He pitched into the seventh inning for just the second time this season; (4) He matched his career-high with two RBIs; (5) HE BEAT OUT AN INFIELD HIT! "I thought it was going to roll foul," Moyer said. "And I feel like I hesitated just a little bit, and then ... as I was running down the line, I saw the pitcher stop and the first baseman, I think he picked it up and he was going to throw it to the pitcher and then he realized the pitcher wasn't (covering the bag). So, then it became, I guess, a slow crawl to first base."

Second base: Detroit disaster. The Tigers continue to play uninspiring baseball, losing 11-7 to the Twins to drop to 18-19. Detroit committed four errors in the first three innings but actually led 7-6 through five innings before the bullpen surrendered five runs in relief of Rick Porcello. The Tigers rank last in the AL with a 5.17 bullpen ERA. Since starting 9-3, the Tigers are 9-16 as Porcello and Max Scherzer continue to get hit around -- they've combined to allow 109 hits in 87.1 innings. Austin Jackson also left the game with a mild abdominal strain and is day to day. If the Tigers are going to win the division, it appears it will be a slow crawl as opposed to the wire-to-wire domination many projected.

Third base: Mr. BABIP. Remember when everybody said Jeremy Hellickson couldn't replicate his rookie numbers? Too lucky, won't repeat his .223 batting average on balls in play, a figure that led the majors, not enough strikeouts and so on. Well ... so far he's doing it again. Hellickson is now 4-0 with a 2.77 ERA ... and .238 BABIP. On Wednesday, he held the Red Sox to one run in six innings, an improvement over an earlier start against Boston in which he allowed five runs and three home runs. While Hellickson's strikeout rate has increased from 5.6 to 6.5 per nine innings, his hit rate has increased from 7.0 to 7.8 per nine, so there is some regression to the norm going on here. Still, considering Tampa's defensive shifts, Hellickson's proclivity as a fly ball pitcher, and the great late movement he gets on his changeup, his BABIP may always be below league-average figures. In other words ... maybe he's more than just lucky; maybe he's good.

Home plate: Tweet of the day.

Great win in front of the home crowd 2nite. Who's this Jamie Moyer guy? He can do it all, pitch & swing it. #ExcitingYoungPlayer

— Jeremy Guthrie (@JGuthrie46) May 17, 2012

Sometimes the analysis is pretty easy.

The Detroit Tigers' lineup on Sunday featured 31-year-old minor league veteran Brad Eldred, who last played regularly in the majors in 2005, hitting fifth. He was followed by Ryan Raburn, Ramon Santiago, Gerald Laird and Danny Worth. You're not going to beat CC Sabathia with that group.

In recent days, Tigers relievers have included Luke Putkonen, Collin Balester, Brayan Villarreal and Thad Weber. Who? Villarreal was the losing pitcher on Friday night versus the New York Yankees.

On Sunday, Max Scherzer walked seven batters in a 6-2 loss to the Yankees. Earlier in the week he got hit around by the Mariners. His ERA is 7.77 and he has yet to pitch more than six innings in any of his five starts.

In 2011, Rick Porcello ranked 84th among 93 qualified pitchers in ERA. Still, many projected a breakout season. Good stuff, they say, good hard sinker. So far, it has been the same Porcello: A lot of hits allowed and not many strikeouts. Two starts ago against the Texas Rangers, he got three outs and gave up 10 hits and nine runs. Against the Seattle Mariners, he gave up five runs and two home runs. He has a 6.45 ERA.

With Doug Fister on the disabled list, rookie Adam Wilk made three starts, losing all three and allowing 21 hits in 11 innings.

Despite batting in front of Miguel Cabrera, No. 2 hitter Brennan Boesch is hitting .231 and has just two walks with 20 strikeouts.

Prince Fielder is finding the pitching a little tougher in the American League. After homering twice against the Boston Red Sox in the second game of the season, he didn't homer again until Sunday.

Left fielder/designated hitter Delmon Young was placed on the restricted list after getting arrested on Friday for allegedly attacking a man in front of a Manhattan hotel and yelling anti-Semitic remarks.

Closer Jose Valverde and setup man Joaquin Benoit hardly look like the dominant duo of a year ago, having allowed 23 hits and 16 walks in 19 innings.

Listening to the Tigers' local radio broadcast the other day, the announcers described the team's energy as listless.

And then there's the defense. Entering Sunday, the Tigers ranked 26th in the majors in defensive runs saved, at 13 runs below average. It's not all Cabrera's fault. He's at minus-2, but Jhonny Peralta is minus-4 at shortstop, Fielder minus-3 at first base, Boesch minus-3 in right field and Raburn minus-2 at second base. The totals should not be surprising as none of them have a reputation for being good defensive players.

That 4-0 start seems like a long time ago to Tigers fans. After starting 9-3, the Tigers have gone 2-8, they've been outscored by 10 runs on the season and their flaws have been exposed like a leaky pipe -- drip, drip, drip, a slow understanding that something isn't right. Detroit doesn't appear to be the super team it looked the first week of the season, but rather a team with little depth in the bullpen, a starting rotation that is relying too heavily on Justin Verlander, poor defense, and a lineup that needs Alex Avila and Peralta to start hitting.

Leyland showed some frustration after Sunday's loss, telling MLB.com that a crucial 2-2 pitch to Derek Jeter that he checked his swing on and was called a ball wasn't a bad call, even though catcher Laird said Scherzer hit his target. "That's all excuse stuff," Leyland said. "That Jeter pitch was a close pitch, but when you're that wild, you're not going to get close pitches."

Instead of escaping the inning, Scherzer allowed two more runs and he ended up throwing 119 pitches without getting out of the fifth inning. "Max is a huge key for us. It has to get better, plain and simple," Leyland said.

Is this a bad time to mention that all 50 ESPN.com voters in our preseason predictions file picked the Tigers to win the AL Central? Obviously, that cast the Tigers as overwhelming favorites to win the division. I was one of those 50, although I hesitated, even once saying on the "Baseball Today" podcast that I was going to pick Cleveland to win the division, before changing my mind when I had to submit my vote.

OK, it's just 22 games and the Tigers are only one game out of first place in the AL Central, a division that has been collectively outscored by 63 runs so far. Rookie lefty Drew Smyly has been impressive. That still makes the Tigers the heavy favorite in this field of five.

If you want other good news, according to our RPI standings, the Tigers have also played the fourth-toughest schedule in the majors so far. The next month presents a schedule that could prove much kinder: Kansas City, the White Sox, at Seattle, at Oakland, at the White Sox, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, at Cleveland, at Minnesota. Tigers fans will undoubtedly point out that Detroit was 25-26 as late as May 29 a year ago, and tied for first as late as July 20, before finishing with a 38-16 kick over the final two months. That surge coincided with Fister's arrival from Seattle, as he went 8-1 with a 1.79 ERA. Fister threw a bullpen session on Thursday and will make his first rehab start on Wednesday in Toledo, as he returns from a strained rib cage muscle.

Still, the Tigers will need more than Fister's return. They need Scherzer and Porcello to pitch better. They need a reliable arm in the bullpen besides Octavio Dotel. They need Fielder to start slugging. They need the defense to help out the pitchers a little more. Young? Ahh, he's not that good anyway.

In the end, I see an imperfect team, certainly not one that will win 100 games or even 95. I see a good team in a weak division, but a team that could easily finish fifth in the AL East. I see a team that is ripe for a surprise pennant race if one of their division rivals puts it together.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

First base: Mr Enigmatic. Is Max Scherzer a good pitcher? A mediocre pitcher? A potentially great pitcher? Last October, in Game 2 of the American League Division Series, we saw how good Scherzer can be when he pitched six scoreless innings, using an explosive, moving fastball to throttle the Yankees. And there he was two starts later in the American League Championship Series against the Rangers, getting knocked out in the third inning. One reason so many people predicted the Tigers to run away with the AL Central is they penciled in improvement for Scherzer and Rick Porcello. I wasn't quite so sure; both have maddeningly inconsistent in their young careers and it's been mostly bad Scherzer in 2012. The punchless Mariners roughed him up Tuesday for 10 hits and five runs in five innings, bumping his ERA to 8.24. Frankly, I can't figure him out. He has a nice 23/6 strikeout-to-walk but has allowed 30 hits in 19.2 innings. Unlucky on balls in play? Sure, probably. Mix in a little Miggy Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Jhonny Peralta as well. But it was similar last season, when he posted a 4.43 ERA: Good ratios, but too many hits and too many home runs (29). Coming on the heels of Porcello's one-inning stinker, the Detroit rotation after Justin Verlander remains a work in progress.

Second base: Narveson out for season. Tough day for pitchers, as Michael Pineda will get another opinion on his shoulder and Mike Pelfrey went on the disabled list with elbow inflammation and possibly worse. Brewers starter Chris Narveson, however, is done for the season after it was announced he'll undergo rotator cuff surgery. Narveson was a solid fifth last season, but Marco Estrada is a nice replacement -- maybe even a step up. A fastball/curve/changeup guy, the Nationals originally drafted Estrada but never quite believed in him since his fastball is 90-91, and the Brewers picked him up on waivers in 2010. He pitched well last season, including a 3.70 ERA in seven spot starts, and threw well last week with five innings of one-run ball, with nine strikeouts and no walks against the Rockies. He isn't flashy, but he throws strikes and should be solid. We talk a lot about the need for rotation depth. Estrada will end up being a key to the Brewers' season.

Third base: CarGo-es deep. The Rockies lost 5-4 to the Pirates as the bullpen blew a lead in the eighth inning but the good news was Carlos Gonzalez finally hit his first two home runs, improving his triple-slash line to .278/.328/.500 (he raised his average 38 points and his slugging percentage 140 points in one night). Nice, but the Rockies will need more ... like 2010 more, when Gonzalez led the National League with a .336 average, slugged .598 and finished third in the MVP vote. That season was built on a .384 average on balls in play, third-best in the majors. His BABIP returned to more normal levels last season and his numbers fell. Gonzalez did start out slow last April (.228, one homer) before heating up in May and June, only to come down with a wrist injury in July that he aggravated again in September. Hopefully this is a sign the wrist is completely healthy and he'll start heating up.

Tweet of the night. A's rookie lefty Tom Milone improved to 3-1 with a 2.00 ERA with eight shutout innings against the White Sox.

His tweeting is boring as all get out but @tommymilone_57 is one hell of a pitcher. Outstanding.

— Brandon McCarthy (@BMcCarthy32) April 25, 2012

I went through our data and divided the information into six storylines to consider about the Detroit defense. A lot of this information is a starting point for discussions, and I’d suggest not viewing the numbers as absolutes, but as indicators.

1. Fielder rates poorly as a first baseman

Worst first basemen since 2006, Defensive Runs Saved:

Prince Fielder, minus-48 runs

Paul Konerko, minus-38 runs

Adam Dunn, minus-35 runs

Ryan Howard, minus-32 runs

Fielder’s defensive issues relate to a simple matter -- fielding batted balls in the areas in which first basemen record outs at least 50 percent of the time. This is covered in the Revised Zone Rating (RZR) metric. Fielder’s RZR since 2006 is .706, fourth-worst among those with at least 2,000 innings at first base.

Miguel Cabrera became a first baseman in 2008. Since then, he’s rated as having cost the Tigers 21 runs. In that same span, Fielder cost the Brewers 25 runs (though he had his best year in 2011, costing the Brewers just one run).

Fielder also does not fare well when it comes to video review. Baseball Info Solutions has video scouts who watch every play of every game and categorize plays as Good Fielding Plays (GFPs) and Defensive Misplays & Errors (DM&E).

Fielder’s 42 Defensive Misplays & Errors were the most in the majors in 2011 and his rate of one every 33 innings ranked ahead of only Daric Barton, Carlos Lee and Eric Hosmer among the 28 first basemen who played at least 500 innings. Fielder rates significantly worse than Cabrera, who averaged one misplay every 47 innings. Cabrera also made good plays more frequently. Here are totals of good fielding plays and misplays, prorated to 1,300 innings:


2. Cabrera didn't rate well at third base

In 2006 and 2007 while with the Marlins, Cabrera was credited with minus-25 Defensive Runs Saved, third-worst of any third baseman in the majors those two years.

Over the past two seasons, Brandon Inge, the Tigers' primary third baseman, has been an MLB average third baseman -- zero Defensive Runs Saved. Last season, Inge cost the Tigers two runs with his defense, the first season in his career in which he had negative Defensive Runs Saved,

3. Detroit's entire infield doesn't rate well

The Tigers were the only team in baseball for which every infield position produced a negative Defensive Runs Saved in 2011.

First base: minus-4

Second base: minus-9

Third base: minus-8

Shortstop: minus-2

But, as their fans will note, that team did win the AL Central and play in the ALCS.

4. Second base might be the bigger issue

The Tigers used six second basemen in 2011, with Ramon Santiago and Ryan Raburn the only two who played more than 400 innings. In 777 2/3 career innings at second base, Raburn has been charted as costing his team 14 runs. In 1,384 2/3 career innings at second base, Santiago has been credited with saving his team 2 runs. Both are back in 2012.

5. Worst defensive lineup versus best lineup

As a hypothetical, if we made the presumption that the Tigers went primarily with an infield of Fielder, Raburn, Jhonny Peralta and Cabrera, and each of them performed to their career Runs Saved average, with Fielder and Cabrera playing 1,300 innings, and Raburn and Peralta playing 1,100 innings, here’s how they would fare:

1B Fielder: minus-8

2B Raburn: minus-20

SS Peralta: minus-3

3B Cabrera: minus-12

That gives you a combined total of minus-43 Defensive Runs Saved, not taking into account who would fill in for the remaining innings (or much range Cabrera is likely to have lost since 2007). That’s 20 runs worse than the Tigers infield positions combined for last season.

What would the difference be if the Tigers played Cabrera at first, Santiago at second and Inge at third, using the same basic principles (working via career averages)?

1B Cabrera: minus-5 (three runs better than Fielder)

2B Santiago: plus-2 (22 runs better than Raburn)

SS Peralta: minus-3

3B Inge: plus-8 (20 runs better than Cabrera)

The Inge hypothetical might be a little optimistic. He’s rated league average (0 runs saved) over the past two seasons. But it’s still significantly better than Cabrera.

6. Which Tigers starters are most impacted by infield defense?

The Tigers have a combination of pitchers who are reliant on the groundball and those more reliant on the strikeout and balls hit in the air. Here is the 2011 groundball percentage of their four top starters, with their ranking among all AL pitchers who faced at least 250 batters:




Where this move may impact Porcello most is when he gets a right-handed hitter to pull a groundball. We can dig deep into our stats to show that Porcello was among the most successful in baseball when he got hitters to do that.

Our Trumedia video evaluation tool is able to isolate chunks of the field and provide stats related to them. On balls hit to the area that starts with the traditional shortstop-third base hole and extends down the left-field line, the average right-handed hitter hit .300 when they hit a groundball. Those facing Porcello over the past two seasons were 24-for-102 (.235).

We're back with more divisional position rankings for 2012. You can scream, you can holler, you can protest and call me names. But just because I rated your player lower than you think he deserves doesn't mean I hate your team.

(Here are the NL East and NL West rankings.)

Catcher
1. Alex Avila, Tigers
2. Joe Mauer, Twins
3. Carlos Santana, Indians
4. Salvador Perez, Royals
5. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox

The AL Central might not be baseball's glamor division, but it may have three of the top five catchers in the game if Mauer bounces back from his injury-plagued campaign. Since we're not certain of his health, I'm going to give top billing to Avila, who had the best hitting numbers of any catcher outside of Mike Napoli and plays solid defense. I wouldn't be surprised if Santana explodes; with his power-and-walks combo, all he has to do is raise his average 30 points and he'll be one of the most valuable players in the game. Considering that his average on balls in play was .263, there is a good chance of that happening. Perez hit .331 in 39 games; OK, he won't do that again, but he doesn't turn 22 until May and puts the ball in play. There's no shame in being fifth in this group but that's where I have to place Pierzynski, who keeps rolling along and is now 36th on the all-time list for games caught.

First base
1. Prince Fielder, Tigers
2. Paul Konerko, White Sox
3. Eric Hosmer, Royals
4. Justin Morneau, Twins
5. Matt LaPorta, Indians

In 2009, when Morneau played 135 games, he hit .274 AVG/.363 OBP/.516 SLG. Even if he replicates that line, he may rank only fourth. Konerko has hit a combined .306 with 70 home runs the past two seasons. He's 104 home runs from 500 but turns 36 in March, so he's probably four seasons away; not sure he'll hang on that long, but who knew he'd be this good at this age. If Hosmer improves his walk rate and defense and Konerko declines, Hosmer could climb past him. If it doesn't happen this year, it will happen next. The most similar batter to him at age 21: Eddie Murray.

Second base
1. Jason Kipnis, Indians
2. Gordon Beckham, White Sox
3. Johnny Giavotella, Royals
4. Alexi Casilla, Twins
5. Ramon Santiago, Tigers

Well, this isn't exactly a Robinson Cano/Dustin Pedroia/Ben Zobrist debate, is it? Kipnis' bat is a sure thing, as evidenced by his excellent play after his call-up (.272 average and .507 slugging in 36 games). His glove was once a question mark but now appears solid enough that he looks like a future All-Star to me. Can anybody explain what has happened to Beckham? He's second mostly by default; he's gone downhill since his superb rookie season in 2009 but is only 25, so there's hope that he'll find those skills again. Giavotella has some potential with the bat (.338/.390/.481 at Triple-A), which is more than you can say for Casilla and Santiago.

Third base
1. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
2. Mike Moustakas, Royals
3. Lonnie Chisenhall, Indians
4. Danny Valencia, Twins
5. Brent Morel, White Sox

We'll go with the idea that Cabrera is Detroit's starting third baseman, although I predict he'll end up starting more games at designated hitter. Manager Jim Leyland will end up doing a lot of mixing of his lineups, but for this little exercise we have to choose a starter. Moustakas didn't tear up the league as a rookie and I worry about his ability to hit lefties (.191, homerless in 89 at-bats), but he showed more than fellow rookies Chisenhall and Morel. Valencia doesn't get on base enough and he rated poorly on defense in 2011. I hope he's at least good in the clubhouse. Morel was terrible all season and then exploded for eight of his 10 home runs in September and drew 15 walks after drawing just seven the previous five months. Maybe something clicked.

Shortstop
1. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
2. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
3. Jhonny Peralta, Tigers
4. Alcides Escobar, Royals
5. Jamey Carroll, Twins

Peralta had the best 2011 season, but he's a difficult guy to project. He had an .804 OPS in 2008 but dropped to .691 in 2009. He had a .703 OPS in 2010 and then .823 in 2011. I just don't see a repeat season, at the plate or in the field. Cabrera didn't rate well on the defensive metrics, and after a strong start he wore down in the second half. Ramirez has turned into a nice player, with a good glove and some power, and he even draws a few walks now. Escobar is a true magician with the glove. Carroll is actually a useful player who gets on base (.356 career OBP), but he's pushed as an everyday shortstop and he'll be 38. He'll be issued the honorary Nick Punto locker in the Twins' clubhouse.

Left field
1. Alex Gordon, Royals
2. Alejandro De Aza, White Sox
3. Ben Revere, Twins
4. Michael Brantley/Shelley Duncan, Indians
5. Ryan Raburn/Don Kelly, Tigers

I'm not sure what to do here. After Gordon, I just get a headache. We'll pretend to believe in De Aza after his impressive stint in the majors (171 plate appearances, .329/.400/.920). He's hit in Triple-A for three seasons now, and while he's not going to post a .400 OBP again, he should be adequate. Revere is one of the fastest players in the majors, but he's all speed and defense; he hopes to grow up to be Brett Gardner, which isn't a bad thing, but he'll have to learn to get on base at a better clip. Brantley doesn't have one outstanding skill so he'll have to hit better than .266 to be anything more than a fourth outfielder; Duncan provides some right-handed pop as a platoon guy. The Tigers have Delmon Young, but I'll slot him at DH. That leaves supposed lefty masher Raburn and utility man Kelly to soak up at-bats; both had an OBP below .300 in 2011, although Raburn has hit better in the past.

Center field
1. Austin Jackson, Tigers
2. Denard Span, Twins
3. Grady Sizemore, Indians
4. Lorenzo Cain, Royals
5. Alex Rios, White Sox

I can't rate Sizemore any higher since he's played just 104 games over the past two seasons, and he hasn't had a big year since 2008. Rios was terrible in '09, OK in '10 and worse than terrible in '11. I'm not betting on him.

Right field
1. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians
2. Brennan Boesch, Tigers
3. Jeff Francoeur, Royals
4. Josh Willingham, Twins
5. Dayan Viciedo, White Sox

Choo would like to forget 2011, but there's no reason he shouldn't bounce back and play like he did in 2009 and 2010, when he was one of the 10 best position players in the AL. I don't expect Francoeur to deliver 71 extra-base hits again, but maybe he'll surprise us. Viciedo is apparently nicknamed "The Tank," which makes me wonder how much ground he can cover. He did improve his walk rate last season in the minors and turns 23 in March, so there's still room for more growth.

Designated hitter
1. Billy Butler, Royals
2. Travis Hafner, Indians
3. Ryan Doumit, Twins
4. Delmon Young, Tigers
5. Adam Dunn, White Sox

Has there been a bigger prospect disappointment than Young in the past decade? I mean, yes, there were complete busts like Brandon Wood and Andy Marte, but those guys had obvious holes in their games, while Young was viewed as a sure thing, a consensus No. 1 overall prospect. But his bat has never lived up to its billing. Other than one decent year in Minnesota, he has low OBPs and he clearly lacked range in the outfield. His career WAR on Baseball-Reference is minus-0.2 (1.6 on FanGraphs), meaning he's been worse than replacement level. He's just not that good, Tigers fans.

No. 1 starter
1. Justin Verlander, Tigers
2. John Danks, White Sox
3. Justin Masterson, Indians
4. Luke Hochevar, Royals
5. Carl Pavano, Twins

Masterson was better than Danks in 2011, and I do believe his improvement was real. He absolutely crushes right-handers -- they slugged an anemic .259 off him. Danks had two bad months but has the longer track record of success. Even in his "off year" he had a higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate than Masterson. If you want to argue about Hochevar versus Pavano, be my guest.

No. 2 starter
1. Doug Fister, Tigers
2. Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians
3. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
4. Francisco Liriano, Twins
5. Jonathan Sanchez, Royals

Yes, sign me up for the Doug Fister bandwagon club. Jimenez's fastball velocity was down a couple miles per hour last season but the positives are that his strikeout and walk rates were identical to 2010; he'll be better. Floyd isn't flashy but he's now made 30-plus starts four years in a row, and he'll become a very rich man when he becomes a free agent after this season. Sanchez won't have the luxury of pitching in San Francisco (and to eight-man NL lineups).

No. 3 starter
1. Max Scherzer, Tigers
2. Scott Baker, Twins
3. Philip Humber, White Sox
4. Bruce Chen, Royals
5. Josh Tomlin, Indians

I could be underrating Baker, who was excellent last season, but only once in his career has he made 30 starts in a season. Tomlin's fans will disagree with this ranking, but he's a finesse guy who relies on the best control in baseball (21 walks in 26 starts). He's the kind of guy you root for, but the league seemed to figure him out as the season progressed.

No. 4 starter
1. Felipe Paulino, Royals
2. Rick Porcello, Tigers
3. Jake Peavy, White Sox
4. Derek Lowe, Indians
5. Nick Blackburn, Twins

Scouts still love Porcello's arm and I know he's just 23, but he's made 89 big league starts and shown no signs of getting better. His WHIP has increased each season and his strikeout rate remains one of the lowest in baseball. Paulino has an electric arm -- he averaged 95 mph on his fastball -- and is getting better. How could the Rockies give up on him after just 14 innings? How could the Astros trade him for Clint Barmes? Anyway, kudos to the Royals for buying low on the guy who may turn into their best starter. Peavy can't stay healthy. Lowe has led his league in starts three out of the past four seasons, but I'm not sure that's a good thing anymore. Blackburn is a poor man's Lowe, and I don't mean that in a good way.

No. 5 starter
1. Chris Sale, White Sox
2. Jacob Turner, Tigers
3. Aaron Crow/Danny Duffy, Royals
4. Fausto Carmona/David Huff/Jeanmar Gomez, Indians
5. Brian Duensing/Jason Marquis, Twins

Welcome to the AL Central crapshoot. Turner and Sale have the most upside, but one is a rookie and the other is converting from relief. Crow will also be given a shot at the rotation, but his difficulties against left-handed batters (.311 average allowed) don't bode well for that transition. Even if the artist formerly known as Carmona gets a visa, what do you have? A guy with a 5.01 ERA over the past four seasons. Duensing is another typical Twins pitcher, which means he at least throws strikes. His first full season in the rotation didn't go well, so of course the Twins brought in Marquis, yet another guy who doesn't strike anybody out.

Closer
1. Jose Valverde, Tigers
2. Joakim Soria, Royals
3. Matt Thornton, White Sox
4. Chris Perez, Indians
5. Matt Capps, Twins

Four good relievers plus Matt Capps. I do admit I'm a little perplexed by Perez, however. In 2009, he struck out 10.7 batters per nine innings. In 2010, that figure fell to 8.7 but he posted a pretty 1.71 ERA. In 2011, it was all the way down to 5.9, but without much improvement in his control. Perez blew only four saves but he did lose seven games. He survived thanks to a low .240 average on balls in play. He's an extreme fly-ball pitcher but didn't serve up many home runs. Bottom line: I'd be nervous.

Bullpen
1. Indians -- Vinnie Pestano, Rafael Perez, Tony Sipp, Joe Smith, Nick Hagadone
2. Royals -- Jonathan Broxton, Greg Holland, Louis Coleman, Tim Collins, Jose Mijares
3. Tigers -- Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel, Phil Coke, Daniel Schlereth, Al Alburquerque
4. White Sox -- Jesse Crain, Jason Frasor, Will Ohman, Addison Reed, Dylan Axelrod
5. Twins -- Glen Perkins, Alex Burnett, Anthony Swarzak, Kyle Waldrop, Lester Oliveros

If you're starting to think I'm not high on the Twins for this season, you would be correct.

Intangibles
1. Royals
2. Indians
3. Tigers
4. White Sox
5. Twins

I like the youthful exuberance of the Royals, plus the likelihood of improvement from the young players and the possibility of some midseason reinforcements from the minors. The depth of the bullpen will help bolster a shaky rotation, and this just feels like an organization that is finally starting to believe in itself. The Indians are riding last year's positive results and enter the season knowing they might get better production from Choo and Sizemore and full seasons from Kipnis and Chisenhall. I'm not knocking the Tigers here, but they do lack depth in the pitching staff and the pressure is on them.

The final tally
1. Tigers, 65 points
2. Royals, 55 points
3. Indians, 54 points
4. White Sox, 46 points
5. Twins, 35 points

No surprise here: The Tigers will be heavy favorites to win the division with a lineup that should score a ton of runs. I don't think it's a lock that they'll win -- Verlander, Avila, Peralta and Valverde will all be hard-pressed to repeat their 2011 campaigns, for example. But the Royals and Indians appear to have too many questions in the rotations, the White Sox have serious lineup issues, and the Twins have a beautiful ballpark to play their games in.

Don Kelly lined the ball to center field, ash connecting solidly with cowhide, a high screamer headed toward Curtis Granderson. The Yankees center fielder hesitated, took a step in ... and Yankees fans saw two years of misery and distress flash before their eyes.

* * * *

I don't think any major league player has been as maligned and criticized the past two seasons as A.J. Burnett. Fans have treated Burnett like a comic foil, because that's what fans do these days. Blind allegiance to your team, your players, no longer exists, certainly not in a city like New York, where losing or mediocrity is not tolerated. The media jumps all over every bad Burnett start, demands to know what went wrong, why he isn't racking up wins and strikeouts.

The fact is, A.J. Burnett has been only a slightly above average pitcher during his career for the most part, although announcers and talk radio jockeys still talk about his great stuff, even if he doesn't throw nearly as hard as he once did. His arm has nearly 2,000 innings of major league wear and tear on it, plus a Tommy John surgery. Part of the perception problem, of course, resides with his contract; Burnett didn't have to sign with the Yankees for $82.5 million back when he the left the Blue Jays, but he did and that creates certain expectations. When he signed with the Yankees his career ERA was 3.81, much of that compiled with the Marlins in a terrific park for pitchers. The contract made him one of the highest-paid pitchers in the game; at $16.5 million, he was the seventh-highest paid pitcher for 2011.

Burnett had a bad season in 2010. He had a bad season in 2011. He doesn't throw strikes consistently, but he threw 25 wild pitches this year -- the third-most in a season since 1920 -- and gave up 31 home runs. Needless to say, Yankee fans were not optimistic about his start in Game 4 against the Tigers.

* * * *

Granderson, of course, leaped up and behind him at the last second to haul in Kelly's drive. His initial misstep turned a difficult play into an extraordinary one, but it may be the play that saved the Yankees' season. What happens if the ball bounds off his glove?

Instead, the Tigers had left the bases stranded. Another few inches, and Kelly's liner goes over Granderson's head. Considering the distance to the center-field wall at Comerica Park and Kelly's speed, it's a three-run triple or possibly an inside-the-park home run.

Burnett had thrown 21 pitches and walked three batters in the first inning. But he had survived. The Yankees had survived. (And Jim Leyland may look back with regret at having Ramon Santiago bunt after Burnett had walked Austin Jackson to lead off the inning.)

Burnett settled down and, other than a Victor Martinez home run, lasted 5 2/3 innings unscathed. His curveball was catching the outside corner, the Tigers hitters were surprisingly aggressive, and Yankees fans were rooting for a guy they spent all season loathing. Meanwhile, the Yankees slowly and predictably pecked away at Rick Porcello, a pitcher who allowed a .321 average to left-handers this season. When Porcello gets his sinker down he can be effective, but he hasn't done that enough this season and certainly not on this night. The Yankees have too many lefties and switch-hitters for a guy like Porcello, who left too many pitches up in the zone. He battled for six innings, the game got ugly with the Yankees winning 10-1 and now we're headed back to the Bronx for Game 5.

The Yankees have to rate the edge. They have home-field advantage, Ivan Nova versus Doug Fister looks fairly even on paper, but the big edge is in the bullpen, where David Robertson and Mariano Rivera will be completely rested, having thrown just 1.1 innings between them in the series. Tigers leadoff man Jackson is hitting .083 and catcher Alex Avila, eighth in the AL in OPS during the regular season, is hitless. Even Alex Rodriguez snapped out of his funk with a base hit.

The best thing about all this? We can thank A.J. Burnett for getting us to a Game 5. There's nothing more exciting than all-hands-on-deck, do-or-die baseball. It's only the second division series since 2006 to go the distance. Get ready for anything. We won't see Burnett again this series, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see Justin Verlander at some point, trying to push the Tigers season one step further.

Jon Weisman of the Dodger Thoughts blog has a good piece on the ups and downs of Chad Billingsley, leading me to think of five other players whose performance has left me a little confused this season.

Drew Stubbs, CF, Reds: He thought he was a breakthrough performer last season with 22 home runs and 30 steals. But the strikeout rate is even higher this year (he leads the NL with 170), and while he plays a good center field and has swiped 32 bases, his .248/.321/.380 batting line isn't impressive for the Great American Ballpark. His .612 road OPS -- combined with all those whiffs -- has you wondering about his future.

Andre Ethier, RF, Dodgers: Ethier appeared to be heading to a monster season after his 30-game hitting streak in April and May. But he's hit a lackluster .251 with a .712 OPS since the streak ended. After making $9.5 million this season, he has one more year of arbitration before hitting free agency. He's not a good defensive outfielder and turns 30 in 2012. He suddenly doesn't look like a $10 million-a-year player anymore.

Justin Smoak, 1B, Mariners: After posting a .920 OPS in April, Smoak looked like the hitter everyone had projected when Seattle got him from Texas last summer in the Cliff Lee trade. But he hasn't hit much since and has been out since early August after getting hit in the face with a groundball. His .220/.317/.387 line may have been aggravated by a thumb injury and blisters that he tried to play through. Nonetheless, he's now played 200 big-league games and has a career average of .219.

Rick Porcello, P, Tigers: Bottom line ... despite the stuff, he doesn't get enough batters out, with a 5.17 ERA, high WHIP and low strikeout rate. He's still so young (22) that he can improve, but unless he develops a strikeout pitch, he's never going to be more than the No. 4 or 5 starter he is right now.

Wade Davis, P, Rays: Another pitcher with good stuff and high expectations, Davis has battled inconsistency in his second season. Despite his power arm, he's averaging even fewer strikeouts per nine than Porcello, as he's dropped from 6.1 as a rookie to 4.8. His 4.28 ERA looks OK, but he's pitching in a good pitcher's park with a pretty good defense behind him. Does he still have No. 2 potential or is he a bottom-of-the-rotation fodder?

Who confuses you? Discuss below.

Here's my weekly look ahead, because I didn't get to it in Sunday night's Yankees-Red Sox diary.

SERIES OF THE WEEK

Milwaukee at St. Louis, Tuesday through Thursday

Tuesday: Shaun Marcum (10-3, 3.58 ERA) vs. Edwin Jackson (8-8, 4.11)
Wednesday: Randy Wolf (8-8, 3.61) vs. Kyle Lohse (9-7, 3.45)
Thursday: Yovani Gallardo (13-7, 3.56) vs. Jake Westbrook (9-5, 4.83)

Dayn Perry documents the Brewers' road woes in an ESPN Insider story, although they are coming off a three-game sweep in Houston. OK, that doesn't tell us anything. They are 8-6 in their past 14 road games, though.

Jackson will make his third start for the Cardinals. His outing last week against the Brewers was a disaster, as he allowed 14 hits, 10 runs and four home runs in seven innings. Lohse was 7-2 with a 2.13 ERA through May but has won just two of 11 starts since. He has pitched more than six innings just twice and has posted a 5.25 ERA in 60 innings with just 25 strikeouts in that span. Look for another quick hook on Wednesday.

For the Brewers, Gallardo has lowered his ERA from 4.08 to 3.56 in his past four starts, but two of those came against Houston and one against San Francisco. Ryan Braun has been more aggressive at the plate lately, hitting .373 in his past 16 games with eight doubles and four home runs but only two walks. Let's see whether the Cardinals attack him and whether he'll chase pitches out of the strike zone.

PITCHING MATCHUP OF THE WEEK

Wednesday: Rick Porcello vs. Ubaldo Jimenez, Detroit at Cleveland (Wednesday)

It's not a battle of Cy Young contenders but an interesting showdown in the AL Central. The Indians are four games back of the Tigers and could use a sweep of their three-game series in Cleveland. Unfortunately, they'll face Justin Verlander on Thursday, putting pressure on Jimenez and Justin Masterson to pitch well. Porcello has been a little better of late, as he's allowed three runs or fewer in six straight starts, although they've been more of the quality start-variety (six innings, three runs) and include several starts against weak offenses -- two against Kansas City and one each against Oakland, San Francisco, Minnesota and the Angels. Jimenez allowed five runs in five innings in his first start for Cleveland against the Rangers.

THREE SWINGS

1. Tim Lincecum stopped the Phillies' nine-game win streak on Sunday, but what a roll the Phillies have been on. With a 74-40 record, they're on pace for 105 wins, and ESPN Stats & Info reports that AccuScore's simulation of 10,000 seasons gives the Phillies a 22 percent chance of winning 108 games. Why is that significant? Only two NL teams have won 108 games since 1910 -- the legendary 1975 Cincinnati Reds and almost-as-legendary 1986 New York Mets, both of whom won 108. With a 3.06 team ERA, the Phillies have a shot to become the first team since the 1989 Dodgers to finish under 3.00. We'll wait a few weeks before comparing the Phillies to other great clubs, but it's worth noting that the '86 Mets finished first in the NL in runs and second in runs allowed; the '75 Reds were first in runs and third in runs allowed. The Phillies are first in runs allowed but seventh in runs scored.

2. It's great to see Stephen Strasburg back in action in a rehab start in Class A. How about this 2013 lineup for the Nationals?

2B Anthony Rendon
RF Jayson Werth
3B Ryan Zimmerman
1B Prince Fielder
LF Mike Morse
CF Bryce Harper
SS Danny Espinosa
C Wilson Ramos

Rotation: Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, John Lannan, Brad Peacock (124 IP, 81 H, 38 BB, 152 SO in Double-A/Triple-A this year), and Veteran Free Agent To Be Named.

OK, I stretched all the position players defensively, but Espinosa should be able to handle shortstop without a hitch (he played there in the minors), and Harper has the speed and tools to handle center field. Prince Fielder? Nats fans can dream, right?

3. Since 1990, only 21 starting pitchers have allowed an on-base percentage of .260 or less. But four pitchers are doing it this season: Justin Verlander (.233), Jered Weaver (.247), Cole Hamels (.253) and Dan Haren (.255). Verlander's total would be the third-best since '90, trailing only Pedro Martinez in 2000 (.213) and Greg Maddux in 1995 (.224). Martinez owns five of the 21 seasons on the list, Maddux four. Johan Santana with three and Curt Schilling with two also appear multiple times.

RANT OF THE WEEK

I'm stealing this great note from our Stats & Information department, which compares Asdrubal Cabrera to Jhonny Peralta:

Cabrera: .289, .832 OPS, plus+1 defensive runs saved, 3.9 WAR (FanGraphs)
Peralta: .314, .873 OPS, minus-10 defensive runs saved, 3.8 WAR (FanGraphs)

Peralta has received about zero media attention for his great year, especially in comparison to Cabrera. Although Cabrera routinely shows up on Web Gems highlights, his overall defense is more league-average than spectacular. Peralta's stick has been slightly more valuable, however, with a .314/.357/.516 line compared to Cabrera's .289/.344/.488. The Tigers are in first place, and Verlander and Miguel Cabrera aren't the only reasons why.

Oh, and the best shortstop in the American League might actually be Yunel Escobar.

An impartial observer might take a snapshot of the American League Central and conclude that the race is an exercise in wheel-spinning. But that’s not entirely correct: The four teams at the top just have no idea if they’re coming or going.

The Twins were treated to a combination wedgie and noogie in a 20-6 loss to Texas on Monday and are now 47-55. But they seem strangely resistant to entertaining offers for free agent-to-be Michael Cuddyer, a solid righty bat, terrific clubhouse guy and crafty situational reliever in blowouts who might net them a decent prospect haul in return. It’s nice to be loyal and cling to hope based on some recent fast finishes, but you have to wonder if Twins general manager Bill Smith is missing an opportunity to capitalize on a valuable asset here.

The Indians, who beat the Angels 3-2 on a walk-off single by rookie second baseman Jason Kipnis, have an AL Central-best run differential of plus-2. They began the season at 30-15, but injuries to Shin-Soo Choo and Grady Sizemore and an overall lack of lineup depth have stalled their momentum and left fans wondering when the magic ends and the reality check begins. Meanwhile, GM Chris Antonetti continues to look for a bat on a limited budget.

The White Sox, the American League’s answer to the enigmatic Reds, are always a stinker away from an Ozzie Guillen expletive-fest. And general manager Kenny Williams, a guy who lives to make waves at the trade deadline, seems genuinely conflicted. Amid rumors that he’s talking to St. Louis about a deal for young outfielder Colby Rasmus, Williams appeared on ESPN Radio in Chicago and said he might “turn over the entire roster’’ if the White Sox don’t make a move here shortly.

That leaves us with the division leaders in Detroit, where Justin Verlander might or might not have enough help in the rotation to get the Tigers to the postseason, and GM David Dombrowski and manager Jim Leyland might or might not be on the spot with owner Mike Illitch in the final year of their contracts.

It was only fitting that when the Tigers and White Sox met in a big AL Central showdown Monday night at U.S. Celluar Field, all the division’s warts were on display. Between home runs by Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski, the Chicago crowd was treated to botched pop flies, a muffed pickoff, a near-collision between Juan Pierre and Alex Rios in the outfield and a wild pitch that careened off Pierzynski’s shinguard and was turned into an out at second base by reliever Jesse Crain.

The Tigers ran out four pitchers -- Duane Below, Chance Ruffin, Charlie Furbush and David Purcey -- with a combined 215 2/3 innings in the big leagues. The vast majority of those belong to Purcey. And White Sox starter Mark Buehrle, miracle of miracles, actually issued a leadoff walk in the fifth inning.

Is this any way to run a pennant race?

Take an informal survey of people in baseball front offices, and their predictions for the division generally fall along the same lines. Just about everyone favors Chicago’s pitching staff, but the White Sox are going to have a hard time winning if Adam Dunn (.159 batting average) and Rios (.301 slugging percentage, 23 RBIs) continue to look this pathetic at the plate. If Dunn plans to hit .200 this season, he better have some Ted Williams-caliber mashing in store for August and September.

Offensively, the Tigers win the Best in Show award. Detroit ranks fifth in the league in runs scored, and Miguel Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta, Alex Avila, Brennan Boesch and Victor Martinez all have an OPS north of .800.

The Tigers have been trolling for a front-end starter. But with Ubaldo Jimenez and James Shields pretty much un-acquirable, they might have to stand pat or settle for a back-end guy to complement their top four of Verlander, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello and Brad Penny.

It could be worse: Scherzer, although up-and-down this season, has generated a swing-and-miss percentage of 9.3 -- better than Matt Cain, Jered Weaver and David Price. And Porcello has quietly gone 4-0 with a 3.33 ERA in July. He’s still 22 years old, remember?

In a race this chaotic, the schedule can make a difference. While the Tigers are finished playing Boston and New York this season, the White Sox welcome the Red Sox and Yankees to Chicago for seven games starting Wednesday. As for the feisty Indians, they have 10 games against Boston, Texas and Detroit in early August. That’s their sink-or-swim stretch.

“It’s a weak division,’’ said a National League personnel man, “but I’ve liked the Tigers all year. Never underestimate a team with a good offense and an ace [starter]. You just don’t have long losing streaks.’’

And who cares about labels? Dunn can’t step to the plate these days without another out-of-town broadcaster referring to him as “the struggling Adam Dunn.’’ But as he told Yahoo! Sports in a recent interview, he still enjoys playing, “Even though I suck.’’

Say this for the Big Donkey: He’s come to the right place.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

I did the Baseball Today podcast with Eric Karabell on Wednesday and randomly mentioned that Colby Lewis is one of the most important pitchers in baseball. He returned from Japan last season and was a huge key to the Rangers' World Series run, winning 12 games with a 3.72 ERA, finishing fifth in the AL in strikeout rate and then beating the Yankees twice in the ALCS and winning his only World Series start. This season, however, he's been up and down, with four starts of six or more runs allowed, but three with zero.

Anyway, after bringing up Lewis, Eric and I decided to each submit our list of the 10 most important pitchers in baseball. The best guys aren't on here; we know Roy Halladay and CC Sabathia and Jon Lester are good and that they just need to stay healthy. So our lists are more a sample of guys who need to keep pitching well or guys who need to step it up. Eric's list tended more to include guys currently pitching like aces; my list tended more towards guys who need to step it up, although we did end up with a few duplicates.

Eric's list
Edinson Volquez, Reds: His ERA is through the roof (5.65), but Dusty Baker chose him for Game 1 of the playoffs last year for a reason, and needs him to anchor the current staff if the Reds are to get back there.

Josh Beckett, Red Sox: Baseball’s ERA leader until Tuesday, if he reverts to his 2010 self this team is in trouble, because depth/health is already an issue.

Jhoulys Chacin, Rockies: He’s taken over ace duties from Ubaldo Jimenez, and better keep pitching well because no other healthy Rockies starter boasts a sub-4.00 ERA.

Shaun Marcum, Brewers: The real ace of the NL Central leaders so far, he’s dealt with a hip problem lately, and the team has lost six of his past seven starts.

Jaime Garcia, Cardinals: The young lefty has won once in eight starts, and one gets the feeling there’s only so long Kyle Lohse can keep his ERA at 2.78.

Erik Bedard, Mariners: He was placed on the disabled list Wednesday, but don’t panic. How the Mariners play in the next month will decide which contender Bedard pitches for the final two months.

Ivan Nova, Yankees: Since I can’t trust Bartolo Colon to stay healthy or Freddy Garcia to stay competent, Nova needs to pitch like the No. 3 starter he occasionally looks like.

Colby Lewis, Rangers: Lefty C.J. Wilson seems safe, but with Alexi Ogando blowing up it’s critical Lewis cuts down on the home runs and gives the Rangers' offense a chance.

Brandon Beachy, Braves: He’s a lot better than most people think, while touted arms Mike Minor and Julio Teheran just don’t seem ready.

Rick Porcello, Tigers: He’s third on the staff in wins, but you won’t win much when allowing 21 runs over your past 12 1/3 innings (three starts). The Tigers need Porcello to fix things.

Dave's list
Colby Lewis, Rangers: Home runs have been his problem as Eric wrote, as he's allowed an AL-leading 20, just one fewer than last season.

Clay Buchholz, Red Sox: The Red Sox have allowed more runs than the Yankees, so they need Buchholz to return from the DL and give them that solid No. 3 behind Josh Beckett and Jon Lester.

Kyle Lohse, Cardinals: Lohse isn't going to keep his ERA under 3.00, but with the bullpen in tatters, Tony La Russa needs him to keep soaking up innings ... and keep that ERA close to 3.00.

Edinson Volquez, Reds: Johnny Cueto has been really good lately, but the Reds need somebody else in the rotation to become a strong No. 2.

Fausto Carmona, Indians: He's 4-10 with a 5.89 ERA, including 1-7 with a 7.99 ERA over his past nine starts, and while that hard sinker is still there, the Indians can't afford to wait much longer.

Rick Porcello, Tigers: His ERA is 5.06, his strikeout rate is low, and with Phil Coke just demoted to the pen, the Tigers need second-half improvement from Porcello.

Bartolo Colon, Yankees: He's important precisely because he has been so good.

Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks: If Arizona wants to stay in the NL West race, it needs Kennedy to keep pitching like the staff ace he's been, as he's third in the NL in innings pitched and has a 3.01 ERA (excellent for that ballpark).

Zack Greinke, Brewers: He's 7-3 but his ERA is 5.63; his strikeout-to-walk ratio is an excellent 80/12, so odds are that ERA will drop significantly in the second half.

Brandon Beachy, Braves: He's been so impressive in his 10 starts that suddenly the Braves need him to keep it up, considering their lackluster offense.

Follow Eric on Twitter @karabellespn and Dave on Twitter @dschoenfield.

Crazy game this afternoon in Minnesota. The Tigers build a 5-2 lead as the red-hot Victor Martinez goes 3-for-3, including a home run off Scott Baker. Twins take a 6-5 lead in the bottom of the seventh when Jason Kubel launches a long three-run blast off Daniel Schlereth. But Jonny Peralta's two-run homer in the top of the eighth off Matt Capps puts the Tigers back on top ... only to see the Twins tie it. The big play came came in ninth when Brandon Inge lofted a fly ball to deep right-center with a runner aboard. Denard Span tracked it down, but might have hesitated as he sensed the wall. Should have been caught, but it fell for a triple and the Tigers win 9-7.

The Tigers have now won five in a row, the Twins have lost five in a row. Martinez has led the surge for Detroit, as he's hitting 571 (12-for-21) over those five games, with two home runs, five doubles and 13 RBIs. Suddenly, the Detroit lineup looks a little scarier than it did when Martinez was on the DL. With catcher Alex Avila hitting .280 and slugging .549, and second baseman Scott Sizemore posting .395 OBP in nine games since his recall from Triple-A, Detroit is finally scoring runs like many projected before the season.

The pitching has been better of late as well, with Max Scherzer undefeated at 6-0, with a 3.20 ERA. He hasn't been as good as the record indicates -- he's still walking four batters per nine innings and he's allowed eight home runs -- but he's developing into a solid No. 2 behind Justin Verlander. I still believe Rick Porcello is the key to this team, and after allowing 10 runs his first two starts, he's allowed two or fewer in each of his past five.

In other words, don't hand the AL Central to the Indians just yet.

As for the Twins, there is no delicate way to put this: It's a bad team right now, and until and unless Joe Mauer returns and Justin Morneau starts hitting, they can forget about 2011.

Follow David on Twitter: @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog: @espn_sweet_spot.

Last night Alex White made his major league debut for the Indians. He faced the Tigers’ Rick Porcello -- a pitcher only four months younger, but one signed out of high school in the 2008 draft. White already has three seasons at the University of North Carolina after passing on the Dodgers in the 2006 draft, while Porcello has amassed 356 major league innings since 2008 and plenty more money. Both made their debuts in just their second professional seasons, but Porcello never saw any level above High-A. White pitched most of 2010 in Double-A and got 23 2/3 innings at Triple-A this year.

The two also share some similarities in how they pitch. Porcello throws a bit slower -- around 90 miles per hour, while White can work around 93. They both work a sinker and a slider with an occasional changeup. The sinker gives both a solid ground-ball rate and lowered home run numbers.

Not only was Saturday an interesting matchup, but also the final line was quite similar as well for the two pitchers. Porcello pitched an extra inning going through the seventh, but both pitchers gave up two runs on two solo home runs. Each pitcher also gave up one hit per inning pitched. While neither pitcher is known for great control, they both had pretty good nights. Porcello struck out seven against one walk, while White delivered four strikeouts with four walks, although two of those free passes were intentional walks to Miguel Cabrera.

Overall the night should be taken as a positive for White. His control was solid and he showed his ability to get ground-ball outs. He was able to get 10 ground-ball outs and two fly-outs on balls put in play. With his solid sinker and an ability to work low in the zone this will be the norm for White -- he will keep his infield busy. He threw strikes only 55 percent of the time in the appearance, but after accounting for the intentional walks he threw strikes roughly 60 percent of the time.

Neither pitcher got the win, as the Indians wound up winning 3-2 in 13 innings. Regardless of the outcome, this was a chance to watch two players of roughly the same age who took very different paths to the majors, yet match up in a single ballgame. As far as baseball goes, there is no sure thing about what way is the best path to the majors; as amateurs, players have to make a choice about what is best for them about when to sign or not, and teams are also making choices about how best to send those prospects through the minor leagues.

Even with a quality start under his belt in his debut, White will probably go back to Triple-A at the end of next week after another start. Facing the Angels, a team not known for their patience at the plate, should help White succeed in his second spin. As is, White was called up to fill in for the injured Carlos Carrasco; Carrasco is currently on the DL, but he’ll come off the DL on May 10.

Once he is demoted, White will need to work on his control in Triple-A. Even so, he will surely be back later in the summer -- he’s the best alternative the Tribe has for their rotation, and that’s for good cause. Once he’s back up to stay, expect these two young hurlers to meet again. Given that both teams have live ambitions for the future, near-term or far, White versus Porcello is sure to become a regular item on both team’s dance cards.


PHOTO OF THE DAY
Troy Patterson writes about the Boston Red Sox for the SweetSpot network at Fire Brand of the AL. You can follow him on Twitter.

Top five reasons why you should listen to Thursday's Baseball Today podcast , with myself and SweetSpot star David Schoenfield:

1. Like everyone else, we discussed the embarrassing Dodgers situation, but do we think MLB should have gotten involved? Will MLB need to run the Mets too? Any other teams?

2. If the Dodgers win it all, should Bud Selig get a World Series ring? Hey, I'd like a ring, too!

3. Don't look at the standings until May. A certain AL Central team seemingly scuffling along proves why early-season schedules are problematic.

4. Who is the unluckiest pitcher in baseball and why doesn't every free agent has-been pitcher just order their agents to make a deal with the San Diego Padres?

5. Feeling svelte and apparently judgmental, we discuss some of the “larger” stars from Wednesday, like Bartolo Colon and Prince Fielder.

Plus: Excellent emails and we preview the "aces" scheduled to pitch Thursday, including Mike Leake, Josh Beckett and, of course, Brandon McCarthy! Enjoy! We'll be back Friday as well with Mark Simon.

Tigers designated hitter/backup catcher Victor Martinez may head to the DL after aggravating his groin during a second-inning at-bat Monday night in Seattle. The issue for the Tigers: Even though Martinez injured the groin while hitting, should he have been catching? Martinez had strained his groin on Saturday, but Jim Leyland said after the game that Martinez looked OK in pregame warm-ups. If he lands on the DL, he's out for two weeks and the Tigers lose a key hitter.

Three questions here:

1. The Tigers saved a roster spot by having Martinez serve as the backup to Alex Avila, but is this a smart move?

Answer: I say no. When Martinez is the DH, it leaves the team with no backup -- meaning Avila can never be pinch-hit or pinch-run for late in games, unless you want to insert the pitcher into the lineup. Considering Avila hit .182 against lefties in limited duty in 2010, you'd think Leyland would want some strategic options available.

2. Should Martinez ever catch?

Answer: I say no. Make him the regular DH, let him play every day and you've still created an asset for your team. American League DHs hit .252/.332/.426 last season and only four teams posted an OPS of .800. Martinez would be expected to outperform those numbers. Considering his ability to throw out runners (or lack thereof -- 14 percent in 2009, 21 percent in 2010), just let him hit.

3. Is Martinez's groin Detroit's biggest problem right now?

Answer: I say no. Leyland and GM Dave Dombrowski will have to make some tough decisions on two youngsters in the near future: Just how good are Austin Jackson (.164, 20 K's) and Rick Porcello (6.19 ERA, 25 hits in 16 innings)? Look, they'll keep playing these guys through May, but if they don't start producing, it may be time to look at some alternate options.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.