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First base: Magical ending. It's only 43 games and crazy things can happen between games 44 and 162, but it's starting to look like one of those seasons for the Dodgers. They're now 30-13 after one of the most exciting wins of the season, rallying from a 6-1 deficit to defeat the sinking Diamondbacks, 8-7. First, Ivan DeJesus Jr. hit a two-run, two-out double off Arizona closer J.J. Putz in the top of the ninth. Then, after Arizona put runners on the corners with one out, Kenley Jansen induced Jason Kubel to ground into a 4-6-3 double play, with Dee Gordon flying through the air as Justin Upton took him out and James Loney scooping Gordon's bounced throw. A key play happened on Upton's base hit, with Tony Gwynn Jr. making a nice play in right-center to hold Upton to a single. And Kirk Gibson didn't send Upton on the 3-2 pitch to Kubel (understandable considering Jansen's strikeout rate). As Dodger Thoughts' Jon Weisman writes, "I can't explain ... anything that is going on." Matt Kemp last played on May 13. The Dodgers are 7-2 without him and averaging 5.1 runs per game. "I'll never forget this game," DeJesus said.

Second base: Harper versus Halladay. Terrific anecdote from Mark Zuckerman, who covers the Nationals at NatsInsider.com. He tells the story of Harper saying in spring training that he's watched Roy Halladay and says he starts a lot of hitters with a slow curveball. In the third inning on Tuesday, sure enough Halladay threw Harper a first-pitch curve and Harper ripped it for a two-run triple, putting the Nationals ahead. The Nats are now 4-1 against the Phillies, setting the stage for tonight's Harper-Cole Hamels showdown.

Third base: Wilson's gem. C.J. Wilson shut down the A's, allowing one hit over eight scoreless innings, a Cliff Pennington single in the fifth. With Vernon Wells out 8-to-10 weeks after thumb surgery, the Angels can finally play the lineup they should have been playing all along: Peter Bourjos in center and Mike Trout in left. With Torii Hunter temporarily out, red-hot Mark Trumbo has been playing right field. With the ground Bourjos and Trout can cover, the Angels can live with Trumbo's lack of range. In fact, even when Hunter returns, I'd stick with this lineup -- making Hunter more of the utility guy instead of Trumbo, who needs to play every day considering the Angels' offensive problems. Yes, Bourjos is off to a slow start at the plate (.197), but it's only 84 plate appearances. Oh ... and that Albert Pujols guy hit his third home run in seven games.

Home plate: Tweet of the Day.

Dodger players cheered so loud as they sprinted onto the field as that game ended you could hear them from the press box. Unbelievable team.

— Molly Knight (@molly_knight) May 23, 2012

OK, let's be brutally honest here about Jon Lester's complete game 6-1 victory on Monday night: It came against the Seattle Mariners. A lot of pitchers look pretty good against Seattle.

Nonetheless, it was Boston's first nine-inning complete game of the season and first since Josh Beckett threw a shutout last June. In fact, Beckett's shutout was Boston's only nine-inning complete game in 2011.

So it was a good sign that Lester went the distance (he did pitch eight innings in a 3-1 loss to Toronto back in his second start). For a guy who has had difficulty keeping his pitch counts down, he threw 119 pitches. He didn't walk anybody, although he threw first-pitch strikes to just 15 of 34 hitters. He struck out six, which at least was an improvement over his past two starts when he put away just five batters in 11 innings. I don't think we suddenly say the Jon Lester of 2008 through August 2011 is back, but it's a small step forward.

Of course, the Red Sox need a big step forward. Remember the Lester mentioned as a leading Cy Young candidate heading into last season? They need that guy back, if he ever existed in the first place. Lester's career high in innings came back in 2008, his first full season in the majors, when he pitched 210.1 innings. Last season, that total dipped to 191.2. Staff aces need to go deep into games. Imagine what an extra 30 or 40 innings would do in saving innings for the bullpen.

The Red Sox, of course, began the day in last place in the American League East. The Angels and Phillies also began the day in last place in their divisions. All three teams are under .500 and looking for small positives. Lester throws well against the Mariners? Hey, that's a positive. Joe Blanton beats the Astros? That's a positive. Small steps.

It has me wondering: Which of these teams -- all World Series contenders back in March -- is the best bet to take the big steps and reach the postseason? Let's backtrack a bit first.

Here were the odds to win the World Series for the three teams at the start of the season, from a certain gambling website:

Red Sox: 10-1
Angels: 7-1
Phillies: 6-1

And the current odds:

Red Sox: 14-1
Angels: 12-1
Phillies: 10-1

I'm actually surprised those odds haven't fallen a bit more, but it's a reminder that we're not even at the quarter pole yet.

Here were the preseason odds to make the playoffs that ran on ESPN Insider, via Dan Szymborski's ZiPS system:

Red Sox: 61.1 percent
Angels: 68.1 percent
Phillies: 62.2 percent

ESPN's panel of baseball personnel was even more optimistic about the Angels and Phillies. Here were the playoff percentages from the 50-person voting panel back on Opening Day:

Red Sox: 32 percent
Angels: 92 percent
Phillies: 86 percent

Not only were the Angels an overwhelming pick to the make the playoffs, 18 of the 50 voters picked them to win the World Series. Interesting that while Dan's numbers-based projected rated the three teams' playoff odds pretty similarly, the Red Sox were viewed in much less regard by the human prognosticators.

And now, as each team sits under .500? The current playoff odds via Coolstandings.com that run on ESPN.com:

Red Sox: 29.8 percent
Angels: 17.8 percent
Phillies: 31.5 percent

Clay Davenport also calculates projected playoffs odds. His system still likes the Red Sox in particular (percentages entering Monday's games):

Red Sox: 65.9 percent
Angels: 20.8 percent
Phillies: 51.6 percent

Clay projects Boston winning 88 games. Maybe his system views Lester as a Cy Young contender.

Now, this is where I pick which of these three teams will make the playoffs. Of course, all three could make it; not a big surprise if that happens. But if I had to pick one team, it's the Phillies. "Baseball Today" podcast host/KaraBlog author/SweetSpot contributor Eric Karabell says I can't do this; he says I've been bagging on the Phillies too much. He says I have to pick the Angels. I think Karabell is misremembering a few things. After all, I did have the Phillies to win the division and was one of just four of those ESPN folks to have the Angels missing the playoffs.

Look, the Red Sox can pound the old leather. My favorite stat: They have 100 doubles, 24 more than the Royals and at least 40 more than half the teams in baseball. The Angels have the advantage of playing the Mariners and A's 36 times this year, still have that great-on-paper rotation, and you know Albert Pujols will go on a tear at some point (although maybe we don't know that).

But I still see too many question marks on those teams. I need to see Lester and Beckett pitch several good games in a row. I need Vernon Wells and Erick Aybar and a few others hitting for the Angels. So here are five quick reasons I'm voting for the Phillies.

1. National League parity.

The Phillies, Brewers and Diamondbacks each won at least 94 games last season, but there's a high degree of possibility that no team will win that many in 2012. Heck, no team may win 90. This suggests the two wild cards may only have to win 85 or 86 games or so. Considering the mediocrity we've seen in the NL Central and NL West divisions outside the Cardinals and Dodgers, it seems like a good bet that two wild cards will come out of the NL East.

2. The Phillies' offense is bad ... but so is much pretty much every other team's offense in the NL.

The Phillies rank ninth in the NL in runs scored. They ranked seventh a year ago. Yes, Carlos Ruiz and Juan Pierre are leading the attack right now. The point isn't so much that this is suddenly going to turn into an offensive juggernaut once Ryan Howard and Chase Utley return and once Jimmy Rollins, Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino start hitting better, but merely to suggest that the Phillies' offense isn't a huge albatross when you compare it across the league.

3. They have Jonathan Papelbon.

OK, Charlie Manuel hasn't exactly done a good job of using him in high-leverage situations, but in a season where closers are falling prey to injuries and blown saves everywhere you look, Papelbon will still prove a small advantage over 162 games.

4. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels.

I still wouldn't trade them for another trio in baseball.

5. Blanton and Vance Worley.

Blanton lowered his ERA to 2.96 with seven strong innings against Houston on Monday. He has a 35/7 strikeout/walk ratio and has allowed just two home runs in 48.2 innings. Worley is once again proving skeptics wrong, with a 3.07 ERA and 45/15 strikeout/walk ratio in 44 innings. The rotation is five-deep and that depth will slowly show up over 162 games.

What do you think? If you haven't, vote in the poll at the top of the page.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

There was a time when Jake Peavy was mentioned in the same breath as pitchers like Roy Halladay and CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander. There was a time when Peavy might have been better than all of them -- the best in the game, in fact.

The last year he started 30 games was in 2007. That season he led the National League in wins, ERA, strikeouts, fewest baserunners allowed per nine innings and most strikeouts per nine. He was the only starter in the major leagues with an ERA under 3.00. He collected all 32 first-place votes in the NL Cy Young Award balloting.

"I can definitely get better," Peavy said after winning the award. "I've got a long way to go to be who I want to be." Maybe he was referring to not throwing a complete game that season. Maybe he was referring to Game No. 163, the playoff tiebreaker in Colorado. Peavy gave up 10 hits and six runs in 6 1/3 innings in a game the Padres eventually lost in the 13th inning. He was 26 years old, a Cy Young winner with two ERA titles under his belt, but he still wanted to prove he was the best pitcher in baseball.

This isn't the way he wanted it to happen, but it's May 2012 and right now Jake Peavy is back on top: He's the best pitcher in baseball. That's right: Better than Halladay or Verlander or Clayton Kershaw or Jered Weaver.

It's an amazing comeback story from a guy who has battled four years of injuries, and not just the routine battle scars that pitchers have to overcome. In 2010, he feared his career could be over. A quick look back at that list of injuries:

2008: He went on the disabled in May with a sore elbow, missed a month and ended up making 27 starts and posting a 2.85 ERA.

2009: Strained a tendon in his right ankle rounding a base in late May, an injury that eventually landed him on the DL. Traded to the White Sox while disabled, Peavy returned in September to make three strong starts. In 16 starts, he finished 9-6 with a 3.45 ERA.

2010: In July, Peavy ruptured the tendon that attaches the latissimus dorsi muscle to the rear of the right shoulder. He became the first major league pitcher to undergo an experimental surgery involving stitches and titanium anchors. His season was over after 17 starts.

2011: Missed time at the start of the season with shoulder tendinitis, later pulled a groin and then was shut down in September due to arm fatigue. He made 18 starts.

Now he's healthy for the first time in a long time. "I’m a different guy than since you've probably ever seen me, just as far as feeling OK on the mound, being able to worry about making pitches, worrying about game planning not sitting in the trainer room the whole time in between days," he told ESPN Chicago a couple starts ago.

Watching him pitch on Wednesday, he looked like the Peavy from his Padres heyday, mixing his fastball, cutter, tight slider, curveball and changeup from that slightly herky-jerky delivery of his. For all the talk of Yu Darvish's wide arsenal of pitchers, Peavy also throws a kitchen sink repertoire. He cruised through six shutout innings against Cleveland before surrendering a run in the seventh as the White Sox scored an 8-1 victory. He threw first-pitch strikes to 18 of 28 batters and while he rarely topped at more than 90 mph on his fastball, he pitched with precision while changing speeds.

Best in the game? A bold statement, yes, but through seven starts nobody's been better. Check the numbers:

• 4-1, 1.89 ERA, with just 11 runs allowed in seven starts.
• Tied with Felix Hernandez for most innings pitched.
• .189 batting average allowed, .221 OBP allowed (third behind only Matt Cain and Jered Weaver), .482 OPS allowed (fifth).
• Strikeout/walk ratio of 44 to 7, third-best behind Cole Hamels and Bronson Arroyo.

What's impressive about this seven-start run is Peavy has had to face most of the hard-hitting lineups in the American League: two starts against Detroit, plus Texas, Boston, Baltimore and Cleveland. He has one start against Oakland. Weaver, for instance, has faced the Twins in three of his seven starts and hasn't faced Detroit, Texas or Boston.

Now, whether Peavy can keep it going and remain healthy is another issue. Entering his Wednesday start, he was the most extreme fly-ball starting pitcher in the majors, although he has allowed just two home runs. He did induce groundballs on nine of his 15 non-strikeout outs on Wednesday, but skeptics would suggest that his home run rate isn't sustainable. That's certainly likely, but you can see from his heat maps that while he's been pitching up in the zone, he's doing a good job of keeping the ball away from hitters.



Amazingly, Peavy isn't the only comeback story for the White Sox. Designated hitter Adam Dunn's career appeared to be in jeopardy for other reasons after suffering through one of the worst seasons in major league history last year, with a batting average I don't even want to repeat.

Dunn, however, has been one of the most valuable hitters in the game so far, slugging his 10th home run on Wednesday, a two-run bomb off Jeanmar Gomez in the first inning. Dunn is hitting .243/.384/.586 and he's tied for third in the majors in homers and ranks ninth in RBIs and 15th in OPS.

Whether Dunn can keep this up is also a fair question. His strikeout rate of 34.1 percent is close to 2011's 35.7 percent, both figures well above Dunn's career mark of 27.7 percent. Basically, last year his fly balls were caught; this year, they're landing on the good side of the fence. But he's also lofting the ball more than a year ago; only four players are hitting a higher percentage of fly balls than Dunn. When you're as big and strong as Dunn, fly balls are a good thing.

Still, you have to connect with the sweet part of the wood. And White Sox fans have hearing that sweet sound so far.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

First base: Trouble in Philadelphia. In Buster Olney's blog today , he quotes Washington Post writer Adam Kilgore, who emailed with Jayson Werth. "After walking off the field feeling nauseous knowing my wrist was broke and hearing Philly fans yelling 'You deserve it,' and, 'That's what you get,' I am motivated to get back quickly and see to it personally those people never walk down Broad Street in celebration again," Werth wrote to Kilgore. Look, I don't like to criticize fans of specific teams. I think most fans are pretty much the same: You support your team when it wins and you don't when it loses. Obviously, Philadelphia fans have a bit of a reputation. I've argued with friends who are Phillies fans that I was a little dismayed that fans apparently booed Ryan Howard as he lay in a crumpled heap after grounding out to end the Division Series loss to the Cardinals; they insist they were just booing the team. And maybe it was just a few bad apples yelling at Werth, and not fair to indict an entire fan base. And, yes, we've seen fans in ballparks across the country rip opposing players. I've seen Mariners fans boo A-Rod and toss dollar bills at him, years after he left Seattle. I've heard Yankees fans yell unmentionable things at opposing players. But ripping a player as he leaves the field with a serious injury -- a player who once helped you win a World Series! -- is pretty classless. Phillies fans do a great job supporting their team. I've never been to a park where so many fans wore team jerseys and shirts to the game. They've led the NL in attendance the past two seasons and lead again. Phillies fans are passionate and care. But that wasn't the best way to channel that passion.

On the field, the Phillies lost for the fourth straight game that Roy Halladay started, although Halladay pitched well and his velocity was up. They lost in the ninth when Jonathan Papelbon served up a three-run homer to pinch-hitter Jordany Valdespin -- his first major league hit. That's the sixth game the Phillies have lost in the ninth inning or later, although the first of those that Papelbon actually pitched in. So at least the good news is that Papelbon at least entered in a close game.

Second base: Twin killing. It's hard to believe the Twins won 94 games just two seasons ago. At 7-21, they're bad and looking worse. After losing again to Jered Weaver, they've lost 12 of 14 and are hitting .112 over their past six games. Joe Mauer ranks just 10th among catchers in OPS, the staff ERA is 5.70, it's allowed the most home runs in the AL and the Twins have two home runs all season from their infielders. It's ugly. This looks like a team that could lose 110 games.

Third base: Matt mashes. Matt Kemp went 3-for-3 to raise his average to .406. With 12 home runs, he has as many as the Padres and nearly as many as the rest of his teammates combined (13). I wonder who the last player to outhomer an entire team was? When Babe Ruth hit 54 home runs in 1920, he famously hit more than each of the other seven AL team.

Home plate: Tweet of the day. The Mariners rallied for three runs in the bottom of the ninth to beat the Tigers 3-2, ruining Doug Fister's fine performance as he returned from the DL with seven shutout innings (Jim Leyland removed him after 73 pitches). The Mariners are now 4-0 against the Tigers, leading to this tweet:

The Tigers must think the Mariners are the best team in baseball

— Jeff Sullivan (@LookoutLanding) May 8, 2012

When you're Roy Halladay and you've gone 77-37 with a 2.59 ERA over the past four seasons, including one Cy Young Award and two second-place finishes, even a small blip in dominance sends sweat dripping down the foreheads of Phillies fans.

Halladay is coming off the worst start of his Phillies career -- he allowed 12 hits and eight runs in 5.2 innings in that crazy 15-13 loss to the Braves last week. His velocity on his cutter is down so far this season, from 90.5 mph to 88.9 mph. His strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first two years with the Phillies was 6.75 to 1; this year, it's 2.9 to 1.

What's it all mean? Maybe nothing, but Ryan Sommers of Crashburn Alley has a more detailed look at Halladay's 2012 results. Could factors like cold weather be influencing his velocity? Is it just a slow start with one particularly rough outing? As Ryan writes, "Given the history here, I’m totally comfortable taking a calm, skeptical outlook. I would be lying, though, if I said I wouldn’t be watching the radar gun closely tonight."

After a wild and wacky weekend around baseball, Mark Simon and I gathered to record Monday’s Baseball Today podcast , with hitters pitching, Power Rankings and ridiculous emails as our backdrop!

1. Chris Davis bests Darnell McDonald in a crazy and lengthy extra-inning affair at Fenway Park. Should hitters be pitching at all? And what does our able producer think about the struggling Red Sox and their manager?

2. The Washington Nationals needed a big weekend against the rival Phillies, and they got it, though the news from the outfield was a bit mixed.

3. It’s a Battle of the Beltway! Which team posted the better spot in the Power Rankings between the Orioles and Nationals? Also, why do Mark and I differ so much on the Rays?

4. Our Simon Says segment focuses on the weekly leaderboard and other players struggling worse than Albert Pujols. By the way, didja know he finally homered?

5. Our emailers have thoughts about the All-animal lineup and rotation, and the most common final score!

So download and listen to Monday’s Baseball Today podcast, as we tell you who is most likely to throw a no-hitter today, and why a certain Phillies pitcher will have many eyes watching him.

What a day in baseball on Wednesday! Eric Karabell and myself could have done a two-hour Baseball Today podcast. Here are some highlights of a jam-packed show. Eric even tricked me into comparing Jose Altuve to Al Kaline and Alex Rodriguez. OK, maybe I did that to myself.

1. We discuss Jered Weaver's no-hitter, of course, and wonder how many more no-hitters we'll see this season.

2. We discuss that wild, improbable game in Atlanta between the Phillies and Braves. Are there reasons to be concerned about Roy Halladay?

3. That's only the tip of the iceberg of a crazy night -- bad calls, Jason Giambi's walk-off homer, Jake Arrieta dominating the Yankees and more.

4. We answer some emails about Mat Gamel's injury and other stuff.

5. Finally, we look ahead to Thursday's action and I declare that Jose Altuve is a batting title contender.

Check it all out on Thursday's Baseball Today podcast, and don't miss Friday's show with Mark Simon and awesome guests Jayson Stark and Tampa Bay Rays pitching coach Jim Hickey.

Baseball is awesome. Did we need to say anything else? Do we need to hire Terry Cashman to write a ballad about this day? Do we need to pen epic poems about Chipper Jones and Jered Weaver and Bryce Harper and the intentional walk?

Man, I need to catch my breath.

How do you sum up the wildest game of the season so far? I guess pretty simply: The Phillies, a team that scores runs with about the same frequency of a Serie A soccer team, totaled 13 runs ... in a game Roy Halladay started ... and lost.

The Phillies led 6-0, the Braves scored six off Halladay in the fifth (including a Brian McCann grand slam) and then took an 8-6 lead (the first time he's allowed eight runs in a game since Aug. 24, 2009). The Phillies surged back ahead 12-8, the Braves took a 13-12 lead with five runs in the bottom of the eighth (as Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon apparently isn't allowed to pitch more than one inning or three days in a row), the Phillies tied in the ninth on Shane Victorino's two-out infield single, and then ...

Well, then, Larry Wayne Jones stepped to the plate in the bottom of the 11th inning. He hammered a 2-2 slider from Brian Sanches down the right-field line, but it hooked a few feet line. I tweeted, "Dang, a Chipper walk-off would have been pretty cool on this wild day."

Two pitches later, he crushed a 3-2, 88-mph meatball over the center-field fence, watching the ball fly away into the Atlanta evening and flipping his bat in a dismissive swagger. "I may be 40 years old with creaky knees, but don't try and slip that mediocre slop by me," he seemed to say.

Braves 15, Phillies 13.

It was the 458th regular-season home run in his career. Few have felt sweeter, especially since the Braves had lost eight straight games to the Phillies.

"I wish everyone could experience that feeling right there," Jones said on postgame on-field TV interview, trying to catch his breath after enduring the mosh pit at home plate. "That game, without a doubt, takes the cake as far as my career goes. You figure with Halladay and [Tommy] Hanson, it's going to be a 2-1 game."

When Jones says he's never seen a game like it, you know what it was something amazing.

And here are a few more adventures from not just another Wednesday in early May:

• Oh, yeah, as I was finishing this piece, Jered Weaver was flirting with a no-hitter through the sixth … seventh … into the eighth … and he did it. You know, Weaver is pretty good at baseball. The highlight: MLB Network cameras showed Weaver leaving the dugout in the eighth inning to use the bathroom. How do you risk a no-hitter by leaving the bench? As he said after the game, "I had to pee so bad."
• In an afternoon tilt at Coors Field, we saw the worst call of the season (Jerry Hairston Jr. was called out on this play) and Carlos Gonzalez homered twice off Clayton Kershaw (only the second time Kershaw has allowed two home runs to one player in a game, Adam Dunn having done so in 2010). But that stuff was merely a prelude to a wacky ninth inning. With two outs and a runner on first, Jim Tracy elected to intentionally walk Matt Kemp to pitch to Dee Gordon. You can debate the merits of the decision -- Kemp's home run rate was three times that of Gordon's extra-base hit rate, and extreme fly ball pitcher Rafael Betancourt was on the mound -- but Gordon hit a soft liner into right-center. Third-base coach Tim Wallach sent Kemp, who should have been thrown out by 10 feet, but Troy Tulowitzki biffed the relay with a wormburner throw home. Game tied and Tracy looked like the goat until the ancient Jason Giambi hit a three-run homer off Scott Elbert in the bottom of the ninth. How awesome is that the Giambino is still swatting game-winning home runs at age 41?
• The Nationals ended a five-game losing streak in dramatic, walk-off fashion as well. Wunderkind Harper -- who had just missed his first major league homer earlier in the game with a double off the top of the wall in right-center -- led off the bottom of the ninth with another double to center, his third hit of the game. With Nationals fans dreaming delirious dreams of Harper's future, J.J. Putz then struck out Wilson Ramos and Rick Ankiel. But Ian Desmond blasted a 1-1, 93-mph fastball over the fence in left-center. Only one of the best wins in Nationals' history.
• The Royals looked like they were going to beat Justin Verlander, leading 2-0 in the eighth, only to have Brennan Boesch tie the game with a two-run homer. So they settled for a victory off Joaquin Benoit in the ninth, the go-ahead run scoring on Chris Getz's two-out infield single.
• Jake Arrieta threw eight shutout innings against the Yankees in one of the best outings of the year for a pitcher: 8 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 BB 9 SO. The Orioles took two of three in the series, they're 16-9, and Baltimore fans are starting to believe.
• Jeff Suppan made his first major league start since 2010 and tossed five shutout innings as the Padres blanked the Brewers 5-0.
• Johnny Damon played his first game for the Indians, and while he went 0-for-3 with a walk, having Damon back in the bigs is certainly worthy of a round of applause.
• Carlos Beltran had seven RBIs through three innings and for a time we could conjure up scenarios where he would drive in 10 ... 11 ... maybe even a record-tying 12 runs.
• Lost in the excitement of Chipper's dramatic walk-off homer, Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz also had seven RBIs.

One day in baseball. I say we do it again.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

My parents still love watching baseball, even Seattle Mariners baseball. I called them Monday evening to see if they watched Philip Humber's perfect game on Saturday and my dad said he watched a few innings, went out to the mow the lawn and came back just in time to see the bottom of the ninth.

He then proceeded to complain about Chone Figgins ("He just can't hit.") and Justin Smoak ("Most good hitters don't take three or four years to figure things out."). Hey, he's right. And you can't blame him; he's been watching inept offense for two-plus years now. But then he said something that sums up a problem not unique to the Mariners:

"You know, even with their great pitching staff the Phillies can't win either."

Indeed, the Philadelphia Phillies entered Monday's game against the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 2.46 ERA. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Vance Worley had allowed just 22 runs in their 13 starts. It doesn't take a Ph.D. in Sabermetrics to realize that's fewer than two runs per start. But after losing 9-5 to Arizona (made closer with a five-run outburst in the ninth inning) the Phillies are now 7-10. That's the same record as the Mariners, and the Phillies have scored just 48 runs, an average of 2.82 runs per game.

That's right, the Philadelphia Phillies -- the five-time defending National League East champs -- have become the Seattle Mariners.

OK, OK ... I kid, Phillies fans. But the Phillies have scored 12 fewer runs than the Mariners, a team whose OPS leader is Brendan Ryan, a guy with a .190 batting average. We all know the laundry list of the Phillies' problems -- Ryan Howard and Chase Utley on the disabled list; Jimmy Rollins hitting .242 with no power (two doubles, no home runs) and just four walks; Placido Polanco hitting .185 with one extra-base hit and one RBI; John Mayberry Jr. hitting .205 with no walks and 14 strikeouts. And so on. In fact, it's fair to ask: Where would the Phillies be without Juan Pierre and Ty Wigginton?

Man, those 45-homer seasons from Ryan Howard seem like a long time ago.

What I'm wondering: How many runs do the Phillies need to score to contend for the playoffs? After all, offense is still 50 percent of the game.

Entering Monday's action, the National League was hitting a collective .242/.310/.376 -- a .686 OPS that is 24 points lower than 2011's numbers. That figure takes us back to the offensive levels of 1988 to 1992, when the NL OPS figures were .673, .678, .704, .689 and .684. So one way of looking at this: Let's assume it will take 87 wins to make the playoffs. What's the lowest run total for an NL team from that 1988-1992 period that won at least 87 games?

For you baseball historians out there, it shouldn't come as a surprise that the 1988 Dodgers scored just 628 runs, or 3.88 runs per game. That actually put the Dodgers sixth in a 12-team league. The Dodgers allowed 544 runs and finished 94-67, exceeding their projected record by three wins.

Back to the Phillies. They're on pace to score 457 runs. Obviously, that won't cut it, but of course the offense won't be that bad all season. It will pick up, that we can predict. In 2011, they allowed 529 runs, the lowest full-season total since the 1969 Orioles allowed 517. So if they match the '88 Dodgers' total of 628 runs, they're still in good shape and project as a 93-win team, assuming the same run prevention as 2011.

What will it take to score 628 runs? They'd have to score 580 runs over the final 145 games, or 4.0 runs per game. Or just about what the National League average has been so far -- 3.94 runs per game entering Monday's game.

But just like the offense is likely to improve moving forward, the pitching staff probably won't match last season's historic stinginess. With Cliff Lee heading to the DL over the weekend with a strained oblique, we see the precariousness of relying so much on a few starting pitchers. The Diamondbacks lit up Kyle Kendrick, Lee's replacement, for 11 hits and seven runs in three innings on Monday. Kendrick had a nice season in 2011, posting a 3.22 ERA over 114.2 innings, including 15 starts. Kendrick, however, lives on a fine line of success. Among 145 pitchers last season with at least 100 innings, his strikeout rate ranked 138th. So as he steps in for Lee -- who may miss a month, meaning four or five starts -- don't expect a 3.22 ERA from Kendrick.

That's just one reason to expect the staff to allow a few more runs. Let's say 30 more than a year ago. That's 559 runs. Now that '88 Dodgers total of 628 runs projects to a win total of ... 89.5.

That might still be enough to squeak into the playoffs. Four runs a game. That's all you need, Phillies fans.

But what if the Phillies average 3.8 runs per game the rest of the season instead of 4.0? That projects to 599 runs scored.

And 86 wins. One run every five games. A couple of extra bloops or bleeders per week. A few ground balls with eyes. The difference between making the playoffs and going home.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

Don't count anybody out, ever. But perfect? Philip Humber was never supposed to be perfect, but on the 21st day of April he was exactly that: the 21st pitcher to deliver a perfect game and the first to throw one since Roy Halladay threw the 20th on May 29, 2010. It was also the first American League perfecto since Dallas Braden on May 9, 2010.

But he was never supposed to be perfect. After all, he had proven so very imperfect since being the third overall pick of the 2004 draft. Touted as a top Mets prospect, he blew out his elbow in 2005, and it wasn’t long before he was referred to as another example of a Rice pitcher who got hurt and hadn’t lived up to the hype. Unimpressed with his minor league performance after coming back from Tommy John surgery, the Mets bundled him into the four-for-one swap that brought them Johan Santana before the 2008 season.

But the Twins never let him start a single game in the majors after making 48 starts over two years at Triple-A, simply letting him slip away after 2009 rather than keep him on the 40-man roster. The Royals picked him up ... and they left him in Triple-A. However desperate the Royals were for pitching of any flavor, they lost him on waivers after the 2010 season to the A’s. They were just looking for a possible fifth starter. But the A’s lost him on waivers a month later when they decided they had a better way to use to spot on their 40-man roster, signing free agent Grant Balfour.

That is where the White Sox stepped in, grabbing Humber off waivers. Their goal for him wasn’t any higher than anyone else’s. He looked like a good guy to stash at the back end of a rotation -- a fifth guy, a bubble guy on an organizational depth chart, a guy only as good as his last start before giving him much thought. He was somebody who sticks only as long as he earns his keep and who won’t be forgiven a run of bad starts.

That was his due, because at no point did Humber dominate in Triple-A. Across four years bouncing among organizations, flitting from New Orleans to Rochester to Omaha, from the Pacific Coast League to the International League and back again, he posted a 4.67 ERA in Triple-A. His clip of 6.9 strikeouts and 2.7 unintentional walks per nine reflected a pitcher who had good command.

With heat that just bumps above 90 mph and good command of four pitches, he’s a finesse righty, and those don’t catch many breaks. But he promptly proved he belonged last season, getting that last slot in the White Sox’s rotation and keeping it, earning job security he’d probably only heard about happening to other people. And now, having achieved history as a strike-throwing machine, those days should be behind him for some time to come.

He’s not the first such find for general manager Kenny Williams, though. The White Sox have made a cottage industry out of giving second chances to other teams’ tarnished top prospects. Gavin Floyd looked like a Phillies flop after being the fourth overall pick of the 2001 draft; John Danks was the ninth overall selection for the Rangers in 2003, but they dealt him for Brandon McCarthy after seeing him deliver mediocre results at Double- and Triple-A. Good pitching might be hard to find, and not everything Williams touches turns to gold, but these are the benefits of betting on upside risk.

Humber might have had the good fortune to face the Mariners, a woeful lineup, in Safeco Field, a great place to pitch. But other people get those chances, and they don’t deliver perfection. It’s because of these finds that the Sox have the best rotation in the American League Central, and how they do will define how far the Sox might go this season. As Humber just showed, that might be a lot better than you ever expected.


Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

Halladay/Lincecum tonight...Roy hasn't thrown a pitch with an ERA above 3.00 since September 20, 2009.

— Jon Sciambi (@BoogSciambi) April 16, 2012

In the 1963 World Series, Sandy Koufax destroyed the Yankees in two starts, striking out 15 hitters in Game 1 and then winning 2-1 in Game 4. The Yankees, winners of 104 games, lost in four straight, prompting Yogi Berra to say about Koufax, "I can understand how he won 25. What I can't understand is how he lost five."

That's sort of how I feel whenever I watch Roy Halladay pitch. He's a completely different breed of pitcher than Koufax, who combined a blazing fastball with a big curveball. Koufax had that classic 1950s style windup where he reared back and came straight over the top with a big stride. Whereas he basically relied on two pitches, Halladay has an apparently endless arsenal of pitches, from two-seam and four-seam fastballs, to a cutter, curveball, splitter, kitchen sink, garbage disposal and weed whacker. Dizzy Dean used to name his pitches; maybe Halladay should do the same. Halladay is more scrunched up in his delivery and lands on a stiffer front leg and doesn't match Koufax's raw power, but somehow throws his pitches with exacting precision even though they move and dart all over the place.

He's really something to watch, but I suspect you know that already. From 1962 to 1966, when he won five straight NL ERA titles, Koufax had a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4.57. Halladay has topped that in six different seasons and will likely make it seven this year considering he's walked just one batter in his first two starts. And keep this in mind: While offense levels have certainly dropped in recent seasons, they're still not quite as low as they were in the 1960s when Koufax was at his peak. From '62 to '66 the National League hit .253 and homered every 42 at-bats. Last year, the NL hit .253 and homered every 38 at-bats. But that was the worst offensive output during Halladay's career; it's been higher in other seasons. Koufax also had the advantage of pitching in Dodger Stadium, arguably the best pitcher's park in the league back then with its infamous high mound. Koufax's curveball must have seemed that it was dropping straight down from the top of Sulfir Canyon.

Halladay is on the mound Monday night to face Tim Lincecum, the first matchup of two-time Cy Young winners since Johan Santana and Randy Johnson in 2009. Lincecum, although right-handed, modeled his own delivery on Koufax's. While he's listed at just 5-foot-11, Lincecum makes up for it with a long stride. As Tom Verducci wrote in Sports Illustrated in 2008, the average pitcher's stride is 77 to 87 percent of his height; Lincecum's is 129 percent. He learned that mechanical marvel from his father, who taught his son by studying videos of Koufax.

While Halladay has allowed one run over his first two starts, Lincecum has struggled, giving up 11 runs in 7.2 innings and he's coming off the shortest outing his career.

"Eliminating all doubts in myself, that's the biggest thing I can do,” he told the local media. “Just go out there and have confidence in my stuff. … Whether it's 85 or 95 (mph), you've got to have commitment in it, and I think that's the biggest difference in having that mental edge."

It seems weird to say a mid-April start by a two-time Cy Young winner is an important game, but it feels like it. Giants fans are worried about his velocity and fastball command; maybe it's just early season panic, maybe the worry is legitimate. Maybe it will just take a start against the great Halladay to turn his season around.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

Remember one week ago? I know many of you wanted to kill off the Yankees and Red Sox. Both teams were 0-3 and in such dire straits that Bill Simmons had a special podcast with his buddy JackO -- a Yankees fan -- to commiserate in their pain.

Well, it's not so easy to get rid of the wicked witches of the East. The Red Sox pummeled the Rays over the weekend, scoring 31 runs in a three-game sweep in games started by David Price, Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore.

The Yankees, meanwhile, took two of three from the Angels to climb above .500, although they did miss Jered Weaver and Dan Haren while getting shut down by C.J. Wilson. (Hey, we don't want Yankees fans to get too comfortable.)

OK, in all seriousness, it's a reminder of the hysteria that's easy to ensue when a team with high expectations doesn't go 7-3 out of the gate. A similar sense of panic exists in Philadelphia, where the Phillies are 4-5 and scoring barely three runs a game. It's early, folks.

Before the Yankees and Red Sox meet this weekend, the Yankees will have an excellent opportunity to pad their win total with a four-game series against the hapless Twins, looking like a good bet early on to challenge the Astros as baseball's worst team. Don't expect much run support for Carl Pavano, who faces Freddy Garcia on Monday night on ESPN and ESPN3 (7 ET): The Twins have scored three runs or fewer in seven of their nine games.

Outside of Derek Jeter (.366, four doubles, two home runs) and Nick Swisher, most of the Yankees hitters are off to lukewarm starts. Robinson Cano has one RBI, Alex Rodriguez is hitting .222 with one home run and Mark Teixeira (a career .235 hitter in April) is off to his usual slow start with a .222 average and zero home runs.

But with four games against the Twins, look for Cano and Teixeira to enter their showdown with Boston with at least one home run on their ledger.

Series of the week

Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals, Tuesday through Thursday

Johnny Cueto (1-0, 2.25) vs. Kyle Lohse (2-0, 1.35)
Mat Latos (0-1, 5.59) vs. Jaime Garcia (1-0, 4.22)
Bronson Arroyo (0-0, 2.63) vs. Adam Wainwright (0-2, 11.42)

In some regard, the Cardinals were baseball's most impressive team through the first 10 games of the schedule. They methodically took two of three from the Brewers, Reds and Cubs, as well as beating the Marlins on Opening Day. Their plus-23 run differential is the best in the majors, as is their 57 runs scored. So far, the Cardinals' bench is shaping up as a possible strength. Matt Carpenter stepped in for the injured Lance Berkman (who should return Tuesday) and has driven in 10 runs in just 22 at-bats. Tyler Greene and Daniel Descalso provide flexibility in the infield. And so far, Yadier Molina (.353/.421/.735, three home runs) is showing his offensive growth in 2011 was for real.

The Reds have scored just 31 runs in 10 games. Outside of Joey Votto and Zack Cozart, the offense hasn't done much. I was worried about Scott Rolen's ability to produce heading into the season and Dusty Baker's cleanup man is off to a .121 start (4-for-33, no home runs, one walk). Baker has also given rookie catcher Devin Mesoraco just 12 at-bats, and Drew Stubbs is still having big issues making contact. Yes, Brandon Phillips missed some games, but there appear to be some red flags about the Reds' offense. The Reds can hardly afford to let the Cardinals put six games between them this early in the season, but that's what they're facing if St. Louis sweeps the series.

Three pitching matchups to watch

1. Monday: Roy Halladay (2-0, 0.60) vs. Tim Lincecum (0-1, 12.91, Phillies at Giants (10:15 p.m. ET)

Halladay has been terrific while Lincecum has been terrible and is coming off the shortest outing of his career on Wednesday, when he couldn't escape the third inning in Colorado. Lincecum is 4-1 with a 2.61 ERA in nine career starts against the Phillies -- teams that had better offenses than this Phillies team, of course. Wednesday's Cliff Lee-Matt Cain matchup ain't exactly chopped liver, either. Yes, I just used that phrase.

2. Wednesday: David Price (1-1, 4.82) vs. Brandon Morrow (0-0, 2.57), Rays at Blue Jays (7:07 p.m. ET)

Tampa Bay's brutal April schedule continues with a Monday morning Patriots Day affair in Boston, three in Toronto and then a bit of a reprieve with three at home against the Twins. Price is coming off a poor stint against the Red Sox in which he had issues locating his fastball and threw 83 pitches in three innings. Morrow has gone seven innings in each of first two starts, a good early sign for somebody looking to prove he can pitch 200 innings for the first time.

3. Saturday: Neftali Feliz (1-0, 2.25) vs. Justin Verlander (0-1, 2.25), Rangers at Tigers (1:05 ET)

Yes, please. The Tigers will prove to be a sterner test for Feliz than the Twins and Mariners. Feliz used his changeup successfully in seven shutout innings against the Mariners in his first start, less so on Sunday against the Twins. He's still a work in progress as a starter, and while nobody doubts his fastball, we'll see if his secondary stuff can catch up. Many still consider moving him to the rotation a bit of a risk, considering his strikeout rate as a closer in 2011 didn't exactly reflect domination (54 strikeouts in 62.1 innings). So far he has seven K's in 12 innings.

Player on the hot seat: Aramis Ramirez, Brewers

After hitting .306/.361/.510 with 26 home runs for the Cubs, the Brewers signed Ramirez to help replace Prince Fielder. So far he's hitting .114 without a big one.

Player to watch: Chad Billingsley, Dodgers

Billingsley has made two strong starts -- one run with a 15-1 strikeout-walk ratio -- raising hopes that the Dodgers will have a strong No. 2 starter behind Clayton Kershaw. Billingsley suffered through the worst season of his career in 2011 as he walked 84 batters, but made some mechanical adjustments this spring. "Success breeds confidence," pitching coach Rick Honeycutt told ESPNLA's Tony Jackson. "They go hand in hand. Right now, you're seeing him totally in control. He isn't right on target with every ball he throws, but we're not seeing that wildness. I like to call them well-thrown balls, and we are seeing a lot of well-thrown balls coming out of his hand. Those are quality pitches. He just needs to do that consistently."

Heat map of the week

Courtesy of Mark Simon and Katie Sharp of ESPN Stats and Information, we have to do a Matt Kemp heat map. Baseball's hottest hitter is just the fourth player since 1920 hitting .450 with at least six home runs and 16 RBIs through his team's first 10 games. The typical major leaguer hits a home run on every nine to 10 of the fly balls he hits, but Kemp's first nine fly balls have resulted in six home runs. He's hit the ball to the opposite field six times, resulting in five hits and four home runs. And in at-bats ending in curveballs, he's 5-for-5 with three singles, a double and a home run.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Pitching matchups looking forward and back were a popular topic on Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast, as Keith Law and I tackled many subjects!

1. First, there’s the Ozzie Guillen situation with the Marlins. Hey, this probably won’t be the last time we’re talking about Guillen off the field.

2. Ian Kinsler and Brandon Phillips each have shiny, new contracts, but which one of them really deserves it?

3. The performances of Neftali Feliz and Daniel Bard were very much on my mind from Tuesday night, but what does Law see for these right-handers moving forward?

4. Our emailers want to know the effect managers can have on baseball games, whether Austin Jackson is a good leadoff choice and more! Send emails to baseballtoday@espnradio.com.

5. We look ahead to what should be a terrific slate of Wednesday games, including Roy Halladay versus Josh Johnson on ESPN2.

Plus, Keith talks about the upcoming draft and which high school and college kids to watch. It’s a packed Wednesday episode of Baseball Today podcast, so download and listen now! Coming Thursday, SweetSpot blogger/editor Dave Schoenfield will join me! Chone Figgins for MVP!

The three major ways I enjoy baseball are through the partisan experience, the narrative experience and the aesthetic experience. The partisan experience is simplest -- when your team wins, you’re happy. Enjoying the narrative experience is getting lost in the story. It can be something as shallow as laughing at the absurdity of a game that’s gone to extra innings, something as exciting as watching the Red Sox come back from 3-0 down in the 2004 ALCS, or something with actual real-world value, like Josh Hamilton's comeback from addiction and injury to take the game by storm.

The trouble with those two types of fan experiences is that they’re hard to predict. I don’t know how happy the partisan in me will be come September, because I don’t know how many games the Phillies are going to win. Similarly, it’s hard to predict the great narrative moments of 2012, because they often pop up out of nowhere. I had no idea the 19-inning Phillies-Reds game from last May was coming, nor the insane final day of the season. And that’s part of the reason why those narrative moments are so great -- they take you by surprise.

But we can predict the aesthetic experience. The aesthetic experience is appreciating a moment of beauty, or of great skill, that leaves the viewer in a state of shock or euphoria. It’s the collective OH SNAP when an outfielder robs a home run, or the Clayton Kershaw breaking ball that puts the I-just-bit-into-a-lemon expression on your face. Below are 10 amazing or exciting or bizarre individual skills you’ll see that are worth looking forward to. They're on the top of my must-watch list for this season.

1. Cole Hamels’ changeup

Hamels idolized Trevor Hoffman when he was growing up, and it shows. Hamels owned, according to FanGraphs’ linear weight pitch values, by far the most effective changeup in the game in 2011, and at 29.3 runs above average, the second-most effective pitch of any kind after Dan Haren’s cutter. It’s a devastating pitch that not only comes in the low 80s, compared to the low 90s of Hamels’ fastball, but features serious two-plane break. It’s reminiscent not only of Hoffman but of Greg Maddux, and it’s good enough that Hamels was able to pitch effectively through 2008 using only his fastball and change. After a 2009 season in which his ERA jumped by more than a run (although his FIP didn't move in the slightest), Hamels started refining his curveball and added a cutter. Though none of his other pitches are much better than average, having four options to go to has allowed Hamels to use his changeup more judiciously. The result: When he’s ahead in the count, a Hamels changeup is like a thermite bomb. Best not to swing at all and salvage a modicum of dignity.

2. Dexter Fowler’s speed

I’ve long had a theory about Coors Field, which is not at all borne out by the park effects data, but I’ll tell you anyway. The air is thin enough in Denver that a normal-sized ballpark would turn any well-hit fly ball into an upper deck home run, or so the story goes. Therefore, the Rockies built a stadium with a massive outfield in an attempt to keep some of those balls in play. The unintended consequence is that while home runs are reduced, the number of bloop singles, doubles and triples goes up. Like I said, the data don’t back up this theory, but the Rockies have a tradition of employing center fielders who can run, if they can do absolutely nothing else. With the exception of Ellis Burks, a Colorado center fielder is a speed-and-defense first kind of guy. The young Juan Pierre is the best example.

Dexter Fowler is the evolutionary result of Alex Cole, Pierre and Willy Taveras. At 6-foot-4, Fowler is bigger than most slap-and-run speed guys, and he strikes out more than any of his National League contemporaries, with the exception of Drew Stubbs and Michael Bourn. But he can run. With his long legs, he covers ground like Usain Bolt, even if his straight-line speed hasn’t exactly led to exceptional stolen base efficiency or sterling advanced defensive ratings. Fowler, for all of his flaws, hits a lot of triples and attempts a lot of stolen bases -- two of the most exciting plays in baseball, and FanGraphs rates him as one of the best baserunners in the game. Even if he never becomes a star, Fowler’s sheer speed makes him one of the game’s most exciting players.

3. Adrian Beltre’s defense

I always knew Beltre was a great defensive player by reputation, and now that he’s out of Seattle, he’s getting the respect he deserves as a hitter as well. Beltre might never walk, but he hits for quite a bit of power and strikes out relatively rarely for a guy with a career .501 slugging percentage. He’s quietly building a very convincing Hall of Fame case, but because he developed a reputation as a mercenary and spent his prime in a park that killed his offensive numbers, he’ll probably end up on the outside looking in.

I first paid serious attention to Beltre’s defense during last season’s playoffs, and his greatness with the glove is just beautifully understated. He doesn’t make the flashy plays that gave Brooks Robinson or, more recently, Scott Rolen such fame. Rolen at his peak was like a panther at third, leaping and laying out to get to the ball, tracking it down and firing it on a rope to first. I grew up idolizing Rolen for his quickness, sure hands and strong arm. He was absolutely mesmerizing. Beltre, by contrast, just always seems to be there. If the ball is hit sharply down the baseline, he’s there to pick it up and throw the ball to first with a minimum of drama. He’s almost telepathic in his ability to anticipate the play and record the out. You have to make an effort to notice exactly how good Beltre is defensively, but once you do, it’s like the arrow in the FedEx logo. Once you notice it, your view is changed forever.

4. Ian Kinsler’s batting approach

Kinsler is sort of like Chase Utley Southwest -- a second baseman who plays all-out with heart and grit but doesn’t get a ton of press, despite being one of the best all-around players in the game. When hitting is boiled down to its barest essence -- see the ball, wait for a good pitch, and hit it hard -- Kinsler may have no equal in the game. In 2011, only Bobby Abreu swung at a lower percentage of pitches outside the zone than Kinsler. When Kinsler did swing, he had the fifth-best contact rate in the game, and of the four players who finished ahead of him, three (Pierre, Jamey Carroll and Placido Polanco) are slap-hitters. In 2011, among players who walked more than they struck out, only Prince Fielder, Jose Bautista and Miguel Cabrera had a higher isolated power figure than Kinsler. Add in his excellent baserunning and fielding, and Kinsler might do more things well than anyone else in the game. Watch a lot of Rangers games. I guess that’s what I’m saying.

5. Roy Halladay’s kitchen sink pitch selection

Of the Phillies’ top three starting pitchers (and I know I’m being a massive homer here), I probably like watching Hamels because of the elegance of his motion and because, unlike Halladay and Cliff Lee, he gets emotional on the mound from time to time. Which is not to say that Halladay isn’t worth the price of admission. What makes Hamels great is his devastating changeup. Halladay, by contrast, has more weapons than an armored tank division. Again, using FanGraphs’ linear weights pitch data, Halladay has a slightly below-average fastball. But in 2011, he had the second-most valuable cutter, the most valuable curveball, and the most valuable split-fingered fastball. Add in his exceptional command, and you’ve got the best pitcher in the game. Halladay is so consistently excellent, and so unflappably methodical, that there’s almost no drama to his outings. It’s like you go to sleep and wake up two and a half hours later, and he's allowed one earned run through eight innings.

6. Giancarlo Stanton’s raw power

The former Mike Stanton was third in baseball last season in isolated power among players who qualified for the batting title. In only 997 career plate appearances, Stanton has already mashed 56 home runs and 51 doubles. Of course, those numbers are nice, if not mind-blowing, in a vacuum. But in a down period for power hitters, they take on new meaning. And Stanton is only 22, and figures to get better and stronger over the next few years. He’s going to strike out a lot, as power hitters are wont to do, but he’s going to hit enough home runs that he can change his name to Plutonium Wigglesworth for all I care. If I were designing a stadium for Stanton, I’d put in a ridiculous home run machine too.

7. Jaime Garcia’s curveball

If you’re going to make a point to watch a Cardinals pitcher this season, it’s probably going to be former Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter. Or Adam Wainwright. Or superprospect Shelby Miller, when he comes up. And of the much-heralded 2010 National League rookie class, it’s easy to get excited about Jason Heyward and Buster Posey. The point is, no one seems to recognize how good Jaime Garcia is. Garcia mixes up four pitches to get a ton of groundballs, on top of a K/BB ratio that topped 3-to-1 in 2011. I’m a sucker for a pitch with a lot of vertical break, and Garcia’s hard-breaking curveball is a big part of his ability to generate strikeouts and groundballs, the lifeblood of any effective starting pitcher. Coming off a year where a low strand rate and moderate bad luck with batted balls created a superficial drop in effectiveness, Garcia flew under the radar, and on a staff with bigger, more exciting names, he could do the same this season. Do yourself a favor and catch at least one of his starts.

8. Brett Gardner’s defense

Gardner has Fowler’s speed and Beltre’s gift for showing up in the right place at the right time -- center fielder’s skills, essentially -- and puts them to use in left field. The end result is that UZR rates him, over the past two seasons, as worth 50.7 runs above average on defense. At this point, I’m legally obligated to inform you that advanced defensive metrics are imprecise, vary wildly from year to year, and that left field is notorious for being hard to evaluate.

With that said, the only player via UZR who was even half as valuable over that time on defense, at any position, is Polanco. Beltre, brilliant defender that he is, was 23 runs above average, albeit at a much tougher defensive position. Gardner’s glove has been more valuable since 2010 than the aggregate contributions of Derek Jeter, Colby Rasmus and Andre Ethier in that time. More than Ryan Howard and Casey Kotchman put together. Of course, it’s likely that UZR is massively overrating Gardner. But I’ve yet to hear anyone call Gardner anything but an exceptional defensive left fielder.

9. Matt Wieters’ throwing arm

I’ll grant you, Wieters is about the only thing Orioles fans have to get excited about nowadays. He shuts down the running game as well as any catcher in baseball. At 6-foot-5, 230 pounds, Wieters is big for the position, but that hasn’t hampered his ability to field his position as well as anyone in the game. In 2011, he threw out 37 percent of opposing basestealers, tops among full-time American League catchers, and well above the mark needed to turn opponents’ basestealing efforts into a net positive for the Orioles. As his reputation grows, the number of runners attempting to run on him should only decrease. But if you’re in the unfortunate position of having to watch a lot of Orioles baseball in 2012, Wieters’ defense is one reason for optimism.

10. Jordan Walden’s amazing, leaping, not-legal-for-sure pitching motion

Most of the rest of the entries on this list are exciting for being impressive and effective, if not so much for being entertaining or artistic. Walden’s delivery is a little bit of both. The Angels’ closer had an outstanding rookie season in 2011, riding a 99-mph fastball to an All-Star appearance, 32 saves, and 31 shutdowns, a FanGraphs stat that tracks win probability added for relief pitchers. In 2011, Walden had the highest gmLI in the game, meaning that, on aggregate, he entered the game with more on the line than any other pitcher in baseball. That’s exciting enough on its own, I think. But what separates Walden from relief aces is that Walden throws his rocket fastball from midair, several inches in front of the rubber.

SB Nation’s Jeff Sullivan studied Walden’s bizarre delivery last summer in great detail, but the short version is that Walden actually lifts his right foot off the rubber before his left foot hits the ground, and well before he releases the ball. It’s fascinating, and terrifying, and I have no idea if it’s legal. The highlight for me last season was watching the Rays’ seven-run comeback on the last day of the season on my laptop, while flipping back and forth between the Braves’ collapse and the Red Sox collapse on TV. A close second was getting to see in person Walden do ... whatever it is he does.

Michael Baumann writes about the Phillies at Crashburn Alley. You can follow him on Twitter @atomicruckus.

I'm still trying to catch my breath. What a first weekend of games, from ace starters dominating to bullpen implosions to clutch home runs. The first week of the season is always entertaining for the rash judgments and choleric reactions to a few losses, but there's no denying the big storyline: The Baltimore Orioles are undefeated!

OK, I kid, but we may not get a chance to mention the Orioles too often this year. (Nick Markakis is swinging a sweet stick so far!) No, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are both 0-3, for the time since 1966 when they finished and ninth and 10th in the 10-team American League. I asked ESPN Insider Dan Szymborski, king of projections, how often the Red Sox and Yankees both missed the playoffs in his simulated seasons. The answer: 5.1 percent of the time. And if you want to believe that both clubs aren't as strong as Szymborski originally projected (he had the Yankees at 93 wins, the Red Sox at 89), the odds are even lower. So, it's not absolutely crazy to think both of these teams could fall short of October.

For all you haters out there, however: The 1998 Yankees started 0-3 and won 114 games ... so don't get too excited just yet. Still, attention will be focused on all the hysteria coming out of the Boston and New York camps this week, and deservedly so. But there is much to watch in our first full of week of action.

Series of the week

Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers, Tuesday through Thursday

Matt Moore vs. Rick Porcello
James Shields vs. Justin Verlander
Jeff Niemann vs. Drew Smyly

An intriguing series as both teams are coming off season-opening sweeps. The Moore's anticipated 2012 debut is must-watch baseball. You're telling me you're not excited to see how the rookie attacks Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder? We get the two aces on Wednesday, with Verlander coming off a dominant Opening Day performance. Shields didn't face the Tigers last season. Rookie Smyly makes his major league debut on Thursday. The Tigers' second-round pick out of Arkansas in 2010, Smyly made his pro debut in 2011 and posted a 2.26 ERA between Class A and Double-A, with 131 strikeouts and 38 walks in 127.2 innings. He beat out Jacob Turner, the team's top prospect, for the No. 5 job in rotation. A 6-foot-3 lefty, Smyly isn't overpowering but throws strikes and repeats his delivery well. A start this weekend for Toledo didn't go well, as he lasted just 1.2 innings and gave up three hits and two walks.

Three pitching matchups to watch

1. Monday: Hector Noesi vs. Yu Darvish, Mariners vs. Rangers (8:05 p.m. ET)

Umm, I'm sure Noesi has his fans but this is all about Darvish's first start. The Rangers carefully slotted Darvish in as the team's No. 4 starter, allowing him to make his first two starts against the Mariners and Twins. That's called easing him in.

2. Wednesday: Stephen Strasburg vs. Johan Santana, Nationals at Mets (1 p.m. ET)

A crucial NL East tilt! Hey, the Mets are 3-0, don't laugh. Both pitchers were solid in the season debuts, although the Mets would like to see Santana go deeper then the five inning he pitched on Opening Day.

3. Wednesday: Josh Johnson vs. Roy Halladay, Marlins at Phillies (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2/ESPN3)

These two have faced off three times since Halladay joined the Phillies. Johnson won last year 2-1 while they split in 2010 -- Halladay winning 1-0 with his perfect game and Johnson winning 2-0 (Halladay allowed just one run).

Player on the hot seat: Red Sox bullpen

Closer Alfredo Aceves has faced five batters in two games and failed to retire any of them. Mark Melancon has already been tagged with two losses, as five of the eight batters to face him have knocked out hits. Will Bobby Valentine panic? Will Franklin Morales be moved to closer? Will Daniel Bard return to the pen before he even starts a game? Good times, Red Sox Nation!

Player to watch: Yoenis Cespedes

With three home runs in his first four games -- including a mammoth home run off the facing off the second deck in Oakland on Friday night, a 462-foot blast he stood and admired for a couple seconds -- Cespedes has already displayed the huge power that scouts drooled over. He's also fanned seven times with no walks in 13 plate appearances. As Mark Simon points out, Cespedes has taken 13 swings on breaking pitches and missed on 10 of them, looking especially vulnerable on balls in the dirt. It's been all or nothing but the "all" has been mighty impressive.

Heat map of the week

Clayton Kershaw's slider is one of the most devastating weapons in baseball. In 2011, left-handers went 8-for-58 (.138) with 26 strikeouts and one home run when putting the slider in play (or striking out against); right-handers went 23-for-198 (.116) with 112 strikeouts and just two home runs. What makes the slider so tough isn't necessarily the location, but the movement on it and how he sets it up with his fastball. As you can, the slider is often in a hittable location -- but hitters can't hit it.

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