ESPN MLB

SweetSpot blogger Dave Schoenfield and I had plenty to talk about on Thursday’s Baseball Today podcast!

1. Cole Hamels let his pitching do the talking about Bryce Harper and the Nationals Thursday, but each time Hamels throws it reminds us of his talent and contract status.

2. Albert Pujols speaks out about his slump! Do we buy his excuses or not?

3. Was Arizona's win over the Dodgers on Wednesday an important win?

4. Our emailers want to know about strength of schedule, ballpark gamesmanship, Drew Sutton and some of the more interesting pitcher-hitter matchups to watch for years to come.

5. Smaller schedule for Thursday but the amazing Justin Verlander is on the mound, as well as the only pitcher in baseball who provides a quality start each and every time out to the mound.

So download and listen to Thursday’s Baseball Today podcast and get ready for Friday’s fun show!

Check out some of the great work from our blog network ...

• Check out Diane's great list at Value Over Replacement Grit on the pitcher who started games with the most different catchers in his career (Frank Tanana and Mike Morgan both started games with 42 different catchers). I like that Tanana worked with Andy Etchebarren, who debuted in 1962, and Todd Hundley, who last played in 2003. The pitcher/catcher combo that started the most games together is Bill Freehan and Mickey Lolich of the '60s/'70s Tigers. They started 324 games together. Here's that list. With the Mark Buehrle-A.J. Pierzynski tandem broken up (159 starts), the active leader combo is Chris Carpenter and Yadier Molina with 155.
• Chip Buck with three big questions for the Red Sox this spring: (1) What to expect from Daniel Bard? (2) Will Kevin Youkilis remain healthy and productive? (3) Will Cody Ross and Ryan Sweeney pay dividends in right field? I believe Bard is the big one. While the Rangers had success the past two seasons moving C.J. Wilson and then Alexi Ogando from the bullpen to the rotation, it's a very short list of pitchers who have done this.
• The Orioles got into a recent snafu with the Korean Baseball Organization and Jon Shepherd interviews Korean journalist Yoo Jee-ho about the situation that led to Orioles scouts being banned from South Korea.
• What will the Braves do when Chipper Jones needs a day off? (And he'll probably need about 30 or so of them, even assuming he stays healthy otherwise.)
• For all the excitement about the Nationals, nobody is talking about shortstop Ian Desmond, who could be one of the most important players in the league in 2012. Desmond's OBP doesn't make him a great leadoff man, but is there another option for the Nats?
• Crashburn Alley asks its readers: Which Phillies storyline are you following? (Insert joke here about picking the Phillies to finish in second place.)
• Mets starter Mike Pelfrey has been working on his sinker. Joe Janish believes that while the sinker is important, Pelfrey is at his best when he's locating his off-speed stuff. Mets fans get frustrated with Pelfrey and the inconsistent ERAs from year to year. But he's actually been a pretty consistent pitcher the past four seasons: His walk rate has been between 2.9 and 3.2 per nine innings and his strikeout rate between 4.9 and 5.2. Maybe an improved sinker will help, but I think he is what he is at this point. He doesn't strike out enough hitters to become an elite starter and his ERA, hits and home runs will fluctuate more or less on the randomness that happens with this type of pitcher.
• Oh, about that Travis Hafner-for-A.J. Burnett rumor? Stephanie Liscio of It's Pronounced "Lajaway" says no ... no ... no. After all ... maybe this is the year Hafner stays healthy.
• The Royals have extended Ned Yost's contract and Nick Scott of Royals Authority is pleased with this development.
• Minus Prince Fielder and possibly Ryan Braun for 50 games, Jonathan Lucroy will be even more important to the Brewers.
• The Astros signed ex-Rays outfielder Justin Ruggiano to a minor league deal and he could find himself in Houston's crowded outfield mix.
• Jason Wojciechowski on Yoenis Cespedes and what his signing means for guys like Josh Reddick, Seth Smith, Chris Carter and Daric Barton.
• Joey Matschulat on Roy Oswalt, Koji Uehara and those nasty "Oswalt wants to pitch for the Rangers" rumors.
• Jon Shields looks at the Mariners' starting rotation -- a rotation that may include Kevin Millwood.
• Blake Street Bulletin examines the Rockies' major offseason acquisitions.
• Jon Weisman talks to Dodgers assistant GM De Jon Watson about some of the young Dodgers like Dee Gordon, Nathan Eovaldi, Jerry Sands and the kids in the minors.

Some more good stuff from around the SweetSpot network ...

• Ben Duronio examines Craig Kimbrel's breaking ball. Some label the pitch a slider or slurve, but Kimbrel refers to it as a curveball. Here's all that matters: It's a devastating pitch.
• Value Over Replacement Grit has an in-depth look at the "Three True Outcomes" concept (a batter either hitting a home run, drawing a walk or striking out) and applies it to entire teams. Which teams in history have best emulated a TTO attitude?
• Chip Buck of Fire Brand compares the AL East rotations.
• Alex Gordon may be close to signing a one-year deal with the Royals. Craig Brown of Royals Authority has a reaction and breaks down what a potential long-term deal could look like.
• Camden Depot's Jon Shepherd examines what Manny Ramirez could potentially bring if the Orioles sign him.
• Marlins reliever Steve Cishek flew under the radar as a rookie but posted impressive numbers. Jonathan Mitchell at Marlins Daily asks whether Cishek should be considered for a high-leverage role in the Marlins' bullpen.
• At Baseball Prospectus, Aaron Gleeman reviews the Johan Santana trade between the Mets and Twins. With that article in mind, Bill Baer looks back the deals that brought the Phillies Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt.
• Considering what the Brewers traded to get Zack Greinke -- compared to what the Reds gave up for Mat Latos and the Cubs to acquire Matt Garza -- that deal is looking like a steal for Milwaukee, writes Jack Moore.
• Joey Matschulat opines on Elvis Andrus' three-year extension with the Rangers.
• Chris Quick looks at some of the PECOTA projections for the Giants. (PECOTA is the projection system used by Baseball Prospectus.) What about new outfielder Melky Cabrera? Well ... let's just say the Giants may still struggle to score runs.
• Yes, Cubs fans, you have reasons to be optimistic!
• For my fellow Mariners fans, Brendan Gawlowski has a good look at the Mariners' non-roster invites.

And a few more links from elsewhere ...

• John Sickels of Minor League Ball with a fun look at the top 30 position players in baseball and how they were viewed as prospects. Here does the same thing for the top 25 pitchers.
• ESPNBoston kicks off its "10 Question in 10 Days" series heading into spring training with Gordon Edes' look at Bobby Valentine.
• ESPNNewYork has a similar series with the Yankees and Andrew Marchand writes that Johnny Damon is the right fit for the Yankees' DH slot.
• Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas is going position-by-position with the Rangers and looks at Yu Darvish.
• Mark Saxon says that Vernon Wells -- and not Mike Trout -- will be the Angels' left fielder.
• Dave Cameron of FanGraphs lists his top 10 moves of the offseason ... and his 10 worst.
• Mentioned briefly above, Baseball Prospectus has reintroduced PECOTA, its player projection system. Colin Wyers has the details here.
• George Brett's company is being sued. Wait ... you mean those necklaces don't actually improve athletic performance?

The last day of January is a notable one in baseball for myriad reasons, not the least of which is because we got the gang together for the Baseball Today podcast, as Mark Simon and I discussed many topics, including:

1. In addition to it being Mr. Simon’s birthday, some other pretty decent Hall of Famers were born on this day. We actually chronicle whether this is the greatest single day for birthdays!

2. Who is the best team in baseball right now? We tell you with our impromptu Power Rankings, going 1 through 10, and highlight the worst of the worst as well.

3. Roy Oswalt and Edwin Jackson remain free agents. Which right-hander would you prefer for this season? And why haven’t the Red Sox already locked up one or both fellows?

4. Prince Fielder joins forces with Miguel Cabrera in Detroit, creating a large, powerful set of corner infielders. We discuss Fielder’s contract, Cabrera’s defense and the weight of it all.

5. Finally, it’s time for your emails and tweets, and we discuss bounce-back seasons for pitchers, AL versus NL, and Tampa Bay’s pitching depth.

So download and listen to Tuesday’s Baseball Today podcast, and find out what Mark Simon, Jackie Robinson and Yuniesky Betancourt all have in common!

There’s a long-held bias against shorter pitchers in baseball. Part of that’s based on the entirely reasonable observation that pitchers only so tall are limited in the number of angles they can come into the strike zone with; part of it’s also associated with the expectation that shorter pitchers can’t handle the workload of regular rotation work.

These were some of the reasons why the Giants’ Tim Lincecum slipped to the 10th overall choice in the 2006 draft, something Brian Sabean and company happily exploited when he fell to them. Yet the Freak’s height (5-foot-11) and slight build are also parts of the reason why some might wonder whether the Giants should now sign the two-time Cy Young winner to a multi-year extension to keep him in the fold beyond his date with free agency after 2013.

Scouts certainly don’t have it wrong in the broad strokes — of the 359 starting pitchers who have thrown 800 or more innings from 1969-2011, just 60 were 6 feet tall or shorter, and 24 of those 60 were lefties. So in 43 years just 36 rotation right-handers standing 6 feet or less have tossed 800 or more innings in the big leagues. Some of that might be blamed on selection bias, but not all of it.

However, some teams have recognized this and made a point of developing short pitchers to exploit this "market inefficiency." In the ’90s the Astros cranked out Roy Oswalt, Kirk Saarloos and Tim Redding, none of whom stand taller than 6 feet. (Not to mention the 5-foot-10 closer Billy Wagner.) The Astros also traded for Mike Hampton (5-10), and then later swapped Hampton to the Mets for Octavio Dotel, another 6-footer.

Oswalt’s name is worth bringing up because he’s an established ace today, but he’s not the only notable power righty who stood in nobody’s shadow at the front of a rotation. Greg Maddux is generously listed at 6 feet; he’s going to the Hall of Fame. Catfish Hunter and Juan Marichal already have. Pedro Martinez is the same height as Lincecum.

Extraordinary talents, of course, make for exceptions, and Lincecum is clearly exceptional. Perhaps his loss of velocity is a source of greater concern, because his fastball’s down around 92 mph where it was sitting at 94 during his Cy seasons. His strikeout rate has similarly dropped — at 24 percent last year, it was still above MLB average, but his rate’s going down at the same time that strikeout rates hit all-time highs. But it’s also worth noting he’s mixing in a lot more sinkers these days, and generating a higher proportion of groundball outs.

Whether that’s the workload or the wisdom of age is the $20 million Average Annual Value question. The Giants are already going to pay Lincecum a raise from last year’s arbitration-generated $14 million, and next year they’ll have to pay another raise beyond whatever he gets this winter. Why not take arbitration out of the equation and put at least a five-year deal on the table now? Including posting fees, the Red Sox spent more than $100 million on 6-footer Daisuke Matsuzaka, and that was in 2006-07 dollars. Jered Weaver accepted less than $20 million per year when he accepted his five-year, $85 million extension last August. That was after his first two spins in arbitration.

FanGraphs’ valuation metric has the value of Lincecum’s work the past two years just under $20 million per season, which might make that sort of pricing tough to accept. On the other hand, the same metric says Lincecum’s performance was worth more than $30 million in each of his Cy Young campaigns. So there’s certainly no guarantee that Lincecum would accept a five-year, $100 million offer, even if it were made, and even if the Giants were willing to trade on their direct knowledge of Lincecum, and whether the dropping strikeout rates and velocity are more by design than red flags for the faint of heart.

Certainly, Sabean has never been afraid to sign a big check. And that’s part of the problem; the Giants still have Barry Zito to afford. But that’s an expense that has almost run its full course with just two years to go and $46 million to spend ($39 million to employ Zito, and $7 million to kiss off their 2014 club option). The Giants can’t afford to let the past entirely dictate their future.

As far as the Giants’ budget goes, now and beyond 2012, they already have big expenses coming off the books. The Giants no longer have to pay $6 million or more apiece for Cody Ross, Miguel Tejada or Mark DeRosa. Next year, they can replace the reliably mediocre Freddy Sanchez at second base for less than the $6 million it cost per year to employ him, Aubrey Huff’s $10 million per season salary goes away as well, and the last checks to Aaron Rowand to pay off that $60 million mistake. The immediate future of the offense belongs to Pablo Sandoval, Buster Posey and Brandon Belt, and the closest any of them are to free agency is Sandoval after 2014.

So the time to shell out for the rotation, the platform of the team’s success in 2010 as well as 2012 and beyond, is now. And that means not just affording the more conventionally beefy Matt Cain before he heads into free agency after this season, it means keeping their Freak on.

Some thoughts on the big free agents remaining not named Prince Fielder.

Johnny Damon: He's 277 hits away from 3,000 but currently scraping for a job. Tampa Bay apparently signed Luke Scott as its designated hitter and with Desmond Jennings taking over in left field, there won't be room for Damon in Tampa. While he still has something left in the tank -- his .743 OPS ranked ninth in the AL among 20 left fielders and DHs with at least 400 appearances -- there just aren't teams looking for a 38-year-old left fielder with a noodle arm. One possibility: the Orioles. With Nolan Reimold in left and Chris Davis and Mark Reynolds slated for third and first, they could sign Damon as their DH.

Edwin Jackson: A Scott Boras client allegedly seeking a five-yeal deal (good luck, Scott!), Jackson is what he is: A durable but mediocre starter. He's one of just 22 pitchers to start 150 games over the past five seasons, but only A.J. Burnett and Livan Hernandez own a worse ERA among those 22. Teams appear to be viewing Jackson correctly: A short-term placeholder, but not a guy you want to make a long-term investment on. He's apparently talked to the Yankees, but I could see him landing in a place like Detroit, allowing the Tigers to give Jacob Turner more seasoning in Triple-A.

Roy Oswalt: Yes, he missed time with a bad back in 2011, but it was the first season he hasn't started at least 30 games since 2003. He's said he's willing to sign a one-year deal to prove he's healthy, so he's a low-risk signing. I still like him: He's one season removed from leading National League starters in lowest WHIP and he had a better SO/BB ratio in 2011 than C.J. Wilson, Tim Lincecum, Jon Lester or Mark Buehrle. Here's one red flag, especially if a team like the Red Sox or Yankees is interested: Oswalt has spent most of his career in the NL Central facing a lot of weak lineups. His career ERA is 3.21, but 3.70 in interleague games. If he's not the pitcher he once was, that could translate to an ERA in the mid-4 range pitching in the AL East.

Carlos Pena: He can still mash against right-handers (.255/.388/.502 in 2011), but really needs to be a platoon player. Trouble is, most teams can't afford to carry a platoon at first base, not when you carry 12 or 13 relievers. (Now, a smart team would realize that carrying an extra bat can be more valuable than an extra LOOGY, but that's a different essay.) The Indians still seem like a good fit and at this point, Pena won't be busting their budget. The Rays may still be in play, although the Scott signing certainly makes that less likely. By the way, only five players have hit more home runs the past five seasons than Pena: Ryan Howard, Fielder, Albert Pujols, Mark Teixeira and Miguel Cabrera.

Hiroki Kuroda: He's allegedly seeking $12 to $14 million per season and he just may be worth it. He's put up solid numbers with the Dodgers despite some mediocre defenses behind him. His fastball velocity has averaged 92 mph for four years in the majors, so he's shown no signs of decline despite his age (37 in February). He won't give you much more than 200 innings, but he could be a big difference-maker for a pennant contender. Do the Angels spend even more money and have Kuroda replace Jerome Williams as the No. 5 starter? That may be overkill, but aren't the Angels all-in at this point?

Francisco Cordero: I'd be vary wary. If you look at the 37 saves and 2.45 ERA you may be mislead. But most front offices are smarter than that these days, so they'll look at the low strikeout rate (5.4 K's per nine), drop in fastball velocity (from 95 in 2009 to 94.5 in 2010 to 93 last season) and see an aging pitcher in decline, even if he did throw his changeup more last season and walk fewer batters. Yes, he's a Proven Closer, but there just doesn't seem like there's much interest in $8 million relievers this offseason. Good luck, Francisco. I don't think you'll be getting that much.

There are still some good free agents out there, perhaps even a few bargains. What kind of team could you buy if you signed the best of these guys? Let's find out. Here's a 25-man roster of unsigned players, with estimated salaries and WAR (wins above replacement). Would it be a competitive team?

C: Chris Snyder
Snyder is coming off back surgery, but it's a thin lot of available catchers. He's been up and down in his career with his bat, but will draw some walks and has a little pop.

Projected salary: $2.5 million
Projected WAR: 1.0

C: Ramon Castro
The career backup never landed in the right place at the right time, but he can he hit left-handed pitching and provides a capable 200-plate appearance backup.

Projected salary: $1.2 million
Projected WAR: 0.6

1B: Prince Fielder
We're going to empty our pocketbooks and have the big guy anchor our lineup. We'll sign him to a seven-year, $165 million contract, but we'll backload the deal. That way, if we get fired, it screws the next GM.

Projected salary: $20 million
Projected WAR: 5.0

2B: Ryan Theriot
Honestly, he doesn't bring a whole lot to the table other than a proven ability not to be horrible. He'll hit an empty .270 or so and play capable defense.

Projected salary: $2 million
Projected WAR: 0.7

3B: Carlos Guillen
Third base is a bit of a problem so we'll have to gamble on Guillen. He's missed a lot of time the past three years, so we'll sign him to a low base salary with incentives if he remains healthy. Considering the production of third basemen in the majors in 2011, he could produce at a league-wide average for the position.

Projected salary: $1.5 million plus incentives
Projected WAR: 1.0

SS: Ronny Cedeno
No, a shortstop who hits .249/.297/.339 isn't ideal, but Troy Tulowitzki isn't available in this scenario. Still, Cedeno was a 1.5 WAR player in 2011 and there's no reason he can't duplicate that effort again.

Projected salary: $4 million
Projected WAR: 1.5

RF: Carlos Beltran
We need another big bat and Beltran is still out there. He's been compared to Michael Cuddyer, who signed a three-year, $31.5 million deal, so Beltran figures to go in a similar range. The good thing is he's better than Cuddyer. Even if he drops off a bit from his strong 2011, he'll be a productive player.

Projected salary: $12 million
Projected WAR: 3.5

LF: Luke Scott/Andruw Jones
We're going with a platoon here, hoping for Scott to bounce back but signing Jones to play against left-handers. Scott hit .264 and slugged .499 from 2007 to 2010, so we think he has something left in the tank. Jones had a .923 OPS against left-handers in 2011.

Scott's projected salary: $5 million
Scott's projected WAR: 1.9
Jones' projected salary: $3 million
Jones' projected WAR: 1.1

CF: Coco Crisp
We're going to want a good flychaser in center and Crisp is a solid defender who also led the AL with 49 stolen bases. His OBP fell to .314 in 2011, so we should be able to sign him for a decent salary.

Projected salary: $6.5 million
Projected WAR: 2.0

IF: Brooks Conrad
He's an insurance policy for Guillen as someone who could provide some pop off the bench and also play second base in a pinch.

Projected salary: $800,000
Projected WAR: 0.6

IF: Jack Wilson
Ugh. But considering Conrad isn't a glove guy (in fact, I'm not sure he even wears a glove in the field), we better sign Wilson as infield insurance. No, we don't like this move, especially considering Wilson's propensity to get injured while filing his fingernails.

Projected salary: $1.4 million
Projected WAR: 0.0

OF: Rick Ankiel
We wanted to sign Cody Ross here, but he's a little expensive for a fourth outfielder (although isn't that what he should be?). Ankiel can play center and provide a left-handed pinch-hitter off the bench.

Projected salary: $1.5 million
Projected WAR: 0.5

OK, now to the pitching staff, which will have to be the strength of our team.

SP: Roy Oswalt
For all the talk about his injury history, 2011 was his first season he didn't start 30 games since 2003. A bad back is always a concern but this was a guy who led the NL in WHIP in 2010. Jerry Crasnick recently reported that Oswalt wants to show he's healthy and is thus willing to take a one-year deal and aim for a bigger contract after 2012. Perfect.

Projected salary: $10 million
Projected WAR: 3.0

SP: Hiroki Kuroda
The Yankees reportedly offered Kuroda a one-year, $12 million deal. Sounds good to us.

Projected salary: $12 million
Projected WAR: 2.8

SP: Javier Vazquez
Yes, we are going to force Javy out of his rumored retirement. He had a 2.15 ERA in the second half last season, so he's far from finished.

Projected salary: $10 million
Projected WAR: 2.5

SP: Joe Saunders
The Diamondbacks declined to offer him a contract, making him a free agent. We're not in love with his soft-tossing style, but he's a solid innings eater for the back of the rotation.

Projected salary: $8 million
Projected WAR: 1.8

SP: Paul Maholm
He may be a little expensive for a No. 5 starter, but we like durability in our rotation. He was 6-14 with the Pirates in 2011, but that was a misleading record for a guy with a 3.66 ERA (4.36 career).

Projected salary: $6.25 million
Projected WAR: 1.5

Closer: Ryan Madson
Baseball's most underrated reliever the past few seasons, Madson finally got a chance to close regularly in Philadelphia and did an outstanding job. His changeup is one of the best pitches in the game and we feel we can bring him in for slightly under his rumored asking price.

Projected salary: $9 million
Projected WAR: 1.7

RP: Hong-Chih Kuo
Kuo was unhittable in 2010, holding opponents to a .139 average and one home run in 60 innings, but developed his usual elbow problems in 2011 and had minor surgery after the season. He's a risky signing but with the potential of a big payoff.

Projected salary: $2.5 million
Projected WAR: 1.0

RP: Chad Qualls
A fungible middle reliever, the right-hander got pounded in 2010 but bounced back ... albeit in San Diego, so he's not necessarily a sure thing. But he's a veteran with a rubber arm. He's not as good as Octavio Dotel, who signed for $3.5 million, so we'll sign him for under that.

Projected salary: $2.3 million
Projected WAR: 0.8

RP: Darren Oliver
Doesn't every team need a veteran left-hander? Oliver has now had an ERA under 3.00 four straight seasons.

Projected salary: $2.7 million
Projected WAR: 1.1

RP: Micah Owings
He can be a long man, spot starter or even pinch-hitter!

Projected salary: $1 million
Projected WAR: 0.4

RP: Clay Hensley
After a strong 2010, his control deserted him in 2011 and he walked 30 batters in 67.2 innings and served up nine big ones. But we'll take a flyer to see if he can rediscover his 2010 groove.

Projected salary: $1 million
Projected WAR: 0.5

RP: Jamey Wright
Yes, we could sign Francisco Cordero, but bringing in two closers isn't realistic. Wright is cheap, mediocre and the perfect 11th or 12th guy on a staff.

Projected salary: $900,000
Projected WAR: 0.5

Total payroll: $127.05 million
Projected WAR: 37.0

How good would this team be? A team of replacement-level players would be estimated to win about 48 games, so our team with +37 WAR would be estimated to win about 85 games. Obviously, there's a wide range in there; if everybody stayed healthy and we had some big years, maybe it could win 90. On the other hand, there are a lot of injury risks on this roster, so the downside could be pretty extreme. Plus, there's the simple fact that a $127 million payroll is high -- that's about what the White Sox's payroll was, which ranked fifth in the majors in 2011.

If only we had a few good rookies making the league minimum to supplement the free agents!

• Don't miss Jim Caple's piece on Yu Darvish. As Jim points out, the biggest adjustment Darvish will have to make if he signs with the Rangers is switching from pitching about once per week to every fifth day. Also, many games in Japan are played in climate-controlled domed stadiums, a big difference from the nasty summer heat in Texas.
• ESPN Insider Dan Szymborski asks: How much should Darvish be paid?
• Baseball Time in Arlington has more thoughts on Darvish.
• The Common Man has some idea on reforming the Hall of Fame voting process. We'll be doing several posts on the Hall of Fame before the official announcement on Jan. 9, but my quick comments about the Common Man's post: (1) Clearly, the Hall of Fame executives don't believe the BBWAA elects enough players, thus all the various formations of a Veterans Committee through the years to elect more members; (2) Bert Blyleven is really an outlier, a player with obvious, above-and-beyond credentials who struggled to get elected; (3) I'm a big Hall guy, but I don't think knocking the BBWAA for not electing Tim Raines necessarily proves the system is flawed.
• Insider Buster Olney also writes about the Hall of Fame, steroids and the logjam that will occur on the ballot beginning next season.
• Andrew Marchand of ESPNNewYork reports that Roy Oswalt is willing to take a one-year deal, but the Yankees remain uninterested. I'm a little surprised at the lack of interest in Oswalt. Yes, he battled a bad back and made just 23 starts in a mediocre season for him (3.69 ERA, career-worst 1.34 WHIP and career-low 6.0 K's per innings). While 2011 could have been Year 1 of his decline phase, remember that in 2010 he led the league in fewest baserunners per innings and 2011 was the first season he hadn't made 30 starts since 2003.
• Jerry Crasnick on how and why Jimmy Rollins ended up returning to the Phillies.
• Over at Grantland, Rany Jazayerli looks at the first moves of new Red Sox GM Ben Cherington and wonders if he's off to a shaky start.
• Finally, Ben Lindbergh at Baseball Prospectus has an interesting piece on front offices, asking a philosophical question of sorts: If every team has a smart GM ... does anyone have a smart GM?

The National League elimination games Wednesday went the way of the home teams, giving us much to look forward to on Friday! Keith Law and I discussed these matters and much more on Thursday’s Baseball Today podcast!

1. The Phillies just can’t hit. Credit the Cardinals, but baseball’s best team is in trouble if they keep relying on the three-run home run. In a related note, a squirrel did something interesting Wednesday.

2. Both the Diamondbacks and Brewers can clearly hit at home. Can either hit enough away from home? Kudos to Kirk Gibson, by the way.

3. The Yankees and Tigers play one more game to decide the opponent for Texas, and we tell you which team will have its closer on the mound deciding things.

4. It was a clutch show today, but does that make Klaw and I clutch? We debate this issue for baseball players.

5. Keith shares his thoughts on a Blue Jays prospect and more from the Arizona Fall League.

So download and listen to Thursday’s Baseball Today podcast because otherwise, you won’t know what’s happening in the game or hear Soderberg’s squirrel noises. Yes sir!

You’ll have to forgive the Philadelphia Phillies if they don’t celebrate too much Saturday after a 9-2 victory against the St. Louis Cardinals. Yes, the Phillies clinched the National League East for the fifth straight year. Yes, they picked up their 98th victory, leaving them two away from 100 wins, a sure sign of elite status. No, the Phillies gathered after tonight’s win almost as if it were one of the other ninety-seven victories they have experienced this season, not as if they had just made history yet again.

The Phillies have much higher aspirations than just another division championship. Winning the NL East wasn’t just a goal, it was an expectation. Of course, when your rotation includes three legitimate Cy Young contenders, high expectations are part of the deal.

At this point, the dominance of Philadelphia's rotation is well documented. The Phillies lead the majors with a 3.00 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP and 101 quality starts. With Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels all posting ERAs under 2.71, the only thing that may keep one of them from winning the Cy Young Award is each other. Halladay and Lee have two of the top five WAR marks among pitchers in the game, bringing their team 14.6 wins above replacement-level players. Hamels isn’t far behind, with the 14th-best WAR among pitchers. All of them have strikeout rates over 22.6 percent and walk rates under 5.2 percent, an incredible combination.

This is all without mentioning the two pitchers slated after the three aces: Roy Oswalt and breakout star Vance Worley. After missing most of the summer with back injuries, Oswalt returned in August and has pitched decently. His 3.57 FIP indicates that he has been pitching better than his ERA and record suggest, and opponents’ .328 BABIP reveals that he has been getting a bit unlucky. If the Phillies use Oswalt as their fourth starter in October, the pundits complaining about his low strikeout rate will be lauding the team’s depth in the postseason.

Worley has been a rookie-season revelation for Philly. Thrust into the rotation to replace the ineffective Joe Blanton, Worley has posted a 2.85 ERA while winning 11 games. Unlike other breakout pitchers Ryan Vogelsong and Jeff Karstens, Worley seems to be for real. His 3.15 FIP indicates that he’s not due for much regression. Come October, Worley will be yet another luxury for a team already full of them.

While Philly’s rotation may be stocked, its offense, so potent in the first few years of this five season run, is quite average. The Phillies rank 12th in the league in runs with 664 and 10th overall in on-base percentage with a .322 mark. They don’t hit for much power, or even extra-base hits, with a .398 SLG percentage, good for 16th in the game. Star slugger Ryan Howard continues to decline, entering the night with a .249 batting average, although his 33 home runs make it hard to complain. Raul Ibanez has never been able to recreate the magic he displayed with the bat during his first few months in Philly two years ago. The Phillies’ underrated MVP on offense may be Shane Victorino. The center fielder leads the team in OBP and average and his 6.0 WAR is the best on the offense, and his 19 stolen bases reflect his value on the basepaths.

The loss of right fielder Jayson Werth in the offseason projected to be detrimental to the team, and it was -- at least until July 29. That was the night that general manager Ruben Amaro pulled the trigger on a trade that landed Hunter Pence. Pence has done everything expected of him since he’s taken over in right field. He’s hit .310, blasted nine homers, stolen eight bases and delivered a .922 OPS, all while playing stellar defense. Considering that he was taking over for the young Domonic Brown, who is hitting .246 with five home runs, Pence has truly been invaluable. Hungry for his first postseason experience, Pence may be the player that propels Philly’s offense to October glory.

So, the Phillies have done it again. They deserve the champagne they were doused in tonight. They deserve the almost unfair expectations that have been placed on them since that December evening in which Lee did the improbable and cold-shouldered the Yankees. But ask anyone in that damp clubhouse and they will tell you they haven’t done anything yet.

The rotation is set. The offense is rejuvenated. The Phillies are ready to make a run. Next, we'll find out if baseball's other playoff teams will be ready for them.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Alex Convery writes for Fire Brand of the American League, the Red Sox affiliate of the SweetSpot network. You can follow him on Twitter.

The Phillies sweeping the Braves this week wasn’t too critical in terms of outcomes. Both teams are already sure things when it comes to the postseason field. Things were closer earlier in the season, but that was before the Phillies reduced the regular season to a contest to see how far beyond 100 wins they will go.

If you’re looking for worthwhile takeaways, seeing Charlie Manuel’s club rally to win against the Braves’ bullpen on Wednesday night was impressive, but not for its beating Peter Moylan in the ninth to break a tie. What was more interesting was seeing the Phillies tie the game against Jonny Venters in the eighth. If Fredi Gonzalez were in the dugout (he’d already been ejected, after all) and if he used Moylan in a ninth-inning tie in a postseason series, that would be worth getting upset about -- then. But not so much in September, with little beyond single-series dignity at stake for the Braves, and after the Phillies’ sweep even that’s something best forgotten by the end of the first cup of Thursday morning’s coffee.

Instead, the really important takeaway from Thursday’s action was that Roy Oswalt made his latest case for October action while keeping pace with Vance Worley. At stake is who gets tabbed as the Phillies’ fourth starter in the postseason. In October, fifth starters get shunted to long relief duty if they’re fortunate, and to off-roster spectator status if they’re not. Manuel wasn’t shy about using Oswalt in relief in October last year, but it wasn’t as if putting him out there with two days’ rest after starting Game 2 was part of any master plan.

This time around, whether or not Oswalt will pitch out of the 'pen in the postseason will be a matter of choice. Oswalt’s injury-interrupted season has seen him deliver his worst strikeout rate of his career, down to 15.3 percent of all at-bats or 6.0 K/9. Pitch F/X data (via JoeLefkowitz.com, my favorite from among a bevy of fine sites) suggests that Oswalt’s velocity is down a lone mile per hour on his fastballs, sinkers and changeups -- not a lot, but with a lot more side-to-side wiggle in what are being labeled four-seam fastballs. More a matter of concern is the massive drop in the number of breaking pitches that Oswalt is using this year: In 2010, he’d throw a slider or curve 29 percent of the time, but this year it’s down to 19 percent.

While it’s a testament to Oswalt’s skill that he can still upset people’s timing by changing speeds while not working with the same full arsenal, the Phillies have September to sort out whether or not he can get back to being the Oswalt of old. Since he’s come back from the DL, he’s more closely resembled the ace acquired from the Astros, making six starts (including Wednesday's), five of them quality starts, while striking out a more characteristic 19.5 percent of opposing batters. But he’s also gotten hit, because even with Wednesday night’s no-hit bid (he took it into the sixth), he’s allowed 50 hits in 40 innings pitched. Blame the defense or blame the repertoire, but either way it’s not entirely reassuring.

Meanwhile, Worley’s been strong and getting stronger down the stretch. The Phillies have won all 10 starts he’s made since the All-Star break, getting seven wins for his troubles. Before the break, Worley was striking out 18 percent of his batters, but he’s up to 24 percent since. For comparison, the healthier Oswalt of 2010 was at 23 percent last year.

But at the same time that Worley has boosted his strikeout rate by a third, he’s cut his walk rate by a third, from 9 percent before to 6 percent in the second half. Even as he’s “regressing” with a second-half BABIP that’s slowly creeping toward league average, Worley has nevertheless been dominant because he’s using his defense less often, and putting fewer people on base by himself. His pre-break performance was very nice for a fifth starter on a good team, but if he keeps pushing toward four times as many strikeouts as free passes, he’s putting himself into the ranks of elite starters. He’s no longer “just” the fifth starter in the best rotation in baseball -- he’s becoming a pitcher to fear in his own right.

With three weeks of action to play, Oswalt and Worley are the two Phillies with something specific to play for. Before the World Series, there’s only one assignment fairly certain to go to either Oswalt or Worley: Game 4 of the National League Championship Series on Oct. 13. Sure, maybe the Phillies will have to play past three games in the first round, and there might be an extra-inning game or a rainout. But right now, that’s the only sure assignment, the prize for Oswalt or Worley to win, and watching whom Charlie Manuel picks and why is a lot more interesting than the Phillies’ final victory tally.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

When Josh Beckett left Monday’s start in the fourth inning with a sprained ankle, Red Sox Nation took a deep breath and tried to hold down its Labor Day hot dogs and hamburgers.

Beckett will get checked out on Tuesday but his first words weren’t the most encouraging response: "It's always concerning. That's my power leg,” Beckett said. "It felt like it was locked up and then it popped in and out of the socket or something.”

Considering Boston’s rotation has kind of turned into a shambles behind Beckett and Jon Lester -- Erik Bedard will miss his next start with a sore knee -- Beckett suddenly becomes one of the key pitchers to watch down the stretch. Here are a few others.

Alexi Ogando, Rangers: Scott Feldman started in place of Ogando on Monday, as the Rangers decided Ogando needed a break. It’s understandable: Ogando is up to 155 innings, 84 more innings than he pitched last season, so the fatigue that everyone was worried about has perhaps set in. In his past six starts, he’s allowed 21 runs in 22.2 innings and got knocked out before the fifth inning three times. Ron Washington hasn’t determined if Ogando will make another relief appearance before starting again, but this much is clear: If the Rangers hold off the Angels for the AL West title, Ogando will need to make a couple good September starts to earn a spot in the playoff rotation.

Freddy Garcia, Yankees: Garcia has made two starts since his return after almost four weeks on the disabled list, both against the Orioles, and with mixed results. He allowed two hits over six innings last week, but on Monday got rocked for nine hits and seven runs in 2.2 innings. After CC Sabathia and Ivan Nova, the Yankees' rotation is still wide open: Phil Hughes has been hit around his past two starts; A.J. Burnett has a 7.39 ERA going back to July, with just one win in 11 starts; Bartolo Colon hasn’t won in six starts, allowing a 5.00 ERA and eight home runs. Will any of these guys step up?

Max Scherzer, Tigers: Don’t let the 14-8 record mislead you -- Scherzer continues to battle inconsistency and gopher balls. Only Colby Lewis and Burnett have allowed more home runs among AL pitchers. Scherzer tossed seven scoreless innings against the White Sox on Sunday and the Tigers need their No. 2 starter to show he can do that over two or three outings in a row. Without the good Scherzer, even Justin Verlander may not be enough to carry the Tigers out of the first round.

Al Alburquerque, Tigers: He was just activated from the DL on Monday, and the Tigers need the rookie righty to perform like he did early in the season, when he blew away hitters with his nasty slider. The Detroit bullpen has been a key to the team’s second half: After posting a 4.68 ERA in the first half, the relief corps has a 3.15 ERA since the All-Star break. Alburquerque could be another weapon to use before closer Jose Valverde.

Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson, Braves: Both right-handers received some positive news over the weekend, but their potential playoff status remains up in the air. Jurrjens received a second opinion on his knee, with confirmation that it is a bone bruise and not anything more severe, but he probably won’t be able to throw off a mound for two more weeks. Hanson felt better after a long-toss session. “I’d like to get a start or two in the regular season, if I can,” he told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “We’ve just got to wait and see. I don’t want to push it like last time and then be done [because of a re-injury]. But at the same time, I don’t know to go too slow and then not have enough time to come back.” The Braves have excellent depth with Tim Hudson, Brandon Beachy, Derek Lowe and Mike Minor, but you know they’d like at least one of these two guys to show he's healthy before the postseason.

Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks: Kennedy has matched his career high of 194 innings, so he’s entering uncharted territory. If anything, however, he’s been looking even stronger: Since the All-Star break, his ERA is 2.05, his opponents’ batting average is .217 and he hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a game. If he continues like that in September, Arizona will have an ace to match up with the Phillies, their likely first-round opponent.

Vance Worley and Roy Oswalt, Phillies: Who will be the Phillies' No. 4 starter in the postseason? Worley continues to impress, but you know Charlie Manuel is loyal to his veterans. A strong finish from Oswalt probably pushes him into the October rotation.

Zack Greinke, Brewers: Who is Milwaukee’s No. 1 starter? It’s a crucial decision for the first round, as the ace may be the only guy to draw two starts. I’m not convinced it’s Greinke, who’s pitched more than seven innings just twice all season. Greinke isn’t wild (only 34 walks in 23 starts), and he leads the NL in strikeout rate (10.7 per nine innings), and that lack of economy means he doesn’t pitch deep into the game often enough. Considering postseason hitters will be more patient than his usual NL Central fodder, is he the guy you want starting the playoff opener? Keep an eye on him down the stretch though, as he’s also the Milwaukee starter most likely to get hot.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

OK, with 42 saves, a 1.62 ERA, and one of the highest strikeout rates of all time for a relief pitcher, Craig Kimbrel will win the NL Rookie of the Year Award, perhaps in unanimous fashion. Kimbrel hasn't been perfect -- he's blown five saves -- but he has dominated opponents and has a good chance to become the 12th pitcher to record 50 saves in a season.

But I've been more impressed with Phillies rookie right-hander Vance Worley, who won again on Thursday to push his record to 10-1 with a 2.85 ERA. Here's a fun statistic courtesy of Elias: The Phillies have won 13 consecutive Worley starts, the third-highest total in the NL in the past 15 years (the Cardinals won 17 straight Chris Carpenter starts in 2005 and the Braves won 15 straight John Smoltz starts in 1996).

That ERA is no accident, as Worley has struck out 7.8 batters per nine innings with a nifty strikeout-to-walk ratio of 90-to-33. The big surprise is that Worley has developed into a good strikeout pitcher despite a mediocre fastball that averages 90 mph. It was that lack of a big heater that had Baseball America rank Worley as just the 11th-best prospect for the Phillies heading into the season. It made sense: Two years ago, Worley had an ERA over 5.00 in Double-A. He lost weight last season and improved, but with 119 strikeouts in 158 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, he hardly had numbers that screamed future major league starter. "Worley profiles as a back-of-the-rotation starter," wrote Baseball America. "With no plus pitch and his reliance on command, he may be best suited for a middle-relief role in the long term."

Injuries to Joe Blanton and then Roy Oswalt opened up a rotation slot for Worley and he took advantage. In 17 starts, he's allowed one or no runs 10 times. His somewhat jerky motion is a little deceptive, but he's pretty simple in his approach: He's thrown his fastball over 65 percent of the time, gets ahead of the hitters, paints the outside corner to left-handers and tries to get righties to chase his slider low and away. He does a great job holding runners (he's allowed just two stolen bases all season, and both of those came in one game). Maybe he's been a little lucky in his home run percentage on flyballs, but there's nothing that indicates his season is a total fluke. And it will be interesting to see who Charlie Manuel gives the ball to as his No. 4 starter in the playoffs, Worley or Oswalt.

So, yes, Kimbrel has all the saves. But Worley, who has pitched nearly 40 more innings, deserves top rookie consideration.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

Each day, fans cheer as Eric Hosmer, Freddie Freeman and Jeremy Hellickson go about their business. Wouldn't it be great to look into the future, and see how their careers take shape? Eric Karabell wrote about the 2011 rookies earlier today, but I'm still partial to the outstanding rookie class of 2001. Here's a look at 10 outstanding rookies from that year.

Adam Dunn

At the end of the 2010 season, Dunn was considered the most consistent player in baseball. For seven years, he had hit between 38 and 46 home runs (including four straight years of 40 homers) with between 92 and 106 RBIs. With over 350 home runs in 10 seasons, it appeared Dunn would easily approach some important milestones. However, in 2011, the bottom has fallen out, and Dunn has struggled to approach a .300 slugging percentage thanks to his .163 average. Dunn's progression into a prodigious slugger was fun to watch, but there is a real possibility that those days are over.

Highlight: Hitting 46 home runs in 2004, becoming the slugger everyone had predicted.

Hall call: If Dunn can produce a couple more 40-homer seasons, he will approach 500 career home runs. It would be difficult to ignore that number, although Dunn's low batting average and poor fielding would likely keep him out.

David Eckstein

Just by reaching the major league level, Eckstein was a feel-good kind of story. One of the shortest players in baseball, Eckstein carved out a niche by hitting, fielding, running, and hustling enough to help teams for 10 years. While he had a nice career, when compared to the other players on this list, Eckstein falls far short. Eckstein's career high in slugging was .395; by contrast, Michael Young has surpassed that number every full season.

Highlight: Winning the World Series with the Angels 2002 and winning World Series MVP honors with the Cardinals in 2006.

Hall call: Though he'll have plenty of stories to tell, Eckstein will not get to tell them in Cooperstown.

Roy Oswalt

Oswalt debuted on May 6 and immediately became one of the best pitchers in the National League, finishing with 14 wins and a 2.73 ERA. In a year of great rookie seasons, Oswalt was one of the best. It got better from there; after winning 19 games in his sophomore season, Oswalt has twice won 20 games, had an ERA of 3.01 or better in six of his 11 seasons and led the NL with a 2.98 mark in 2006. Though his strikeout rate is lower than his first few years, Oswalt should have a few more years in him if he can avoid the injuries that have hurt him this year.

Highlight: Winning Game 6 of the 2005 NLCS, pitching seven innings to lead the Astros to their first World Series berth.

Hall call: Though Oswalt has been called an ace his whole career, it's been awhile since he dominated the league, other than his stint late last season with the Phillies. He's on a good team, so if he can stick around and increase his counting stats, along with some postseason memories, he might have a shot.

Albert Pujols

In 2001, Pujols had just turned 21 and was thrust into the starting gig at third base, with only a few games above Class A ball. Pujols had a season for the ages, hitting 37 home runs, 47 doubles, with a robust 1.013 OPS. Pujols managed to exceed his seemingly unlimited potential and dominated baseball over the next decade, with a .328 career average and three MVP Awards.

Highlight: 2005 NLCS home run off Brad Lidge that is still going.

Hall call: Five years after his retirement, Pujols will coast into the Hall of Fame.

Jimmy Rollins

From the time he put on his first Phillies uniform, Jimmy Rollins was exciting. As a rookie, Rollins hit 14 home runs and stole 46 bases. For a team in the midst of losing franchise stalwarts Curt Schilling and Scott Rolen, Rollins was a breath of fresh air. Rollins never did get on base nearly enough, and while he eventually developed some pop and the speed is still around, he has never posted an on-base percentage of even .350. By contrast, teammate Chase Utley hasn't posted an OBP below .375 in any full season of his career.

Highlight: Being named the 2007 National League Most Valuable Player when he scored 139 runs and had 88 extra-base his, including 20 triples and 30 home runs.

Hall call: Rollins is approaching 2,000 career hits and still has a few years left, but the .272 career average and .329 on-base percentage could certainly sway voters against him.

CC Sabathia

Sabathia turned 21 during the 2001 season. Despite his youth, he pitched like he had plenty of experience, winning 17 games and striking out 171 batters in 180 innings. After a few modest years, Sabathia turned into an ace in 2006 and became a regular Cy Young contender. Still only 31, Sabathia has over 170 wins and 2,300 innings, showing no signs of slowing down.

Highlight: Clinching the 2008 National League wild card on three days' rest for the Brewers.

Hall call: Sabathia seems like an obvious Hall of Famer, but there are plenty of cautionary tales among pitchers who came up early and seemed like Cooperstown locks.

Ben Sheets

Sheets started his career like many rookies. The hype of a top prospect -- he even made the All-Star Game -- gave way to major league mediocrity, with enough potential demonstrated to spark much debate about the future. In 2004, Sheets dominated, having a season for the ages with a 2.70 ERA and 264 strikeouts. Though Sheets' teammates could only help him to 12 wins, his season was a great one. Unfortunately, that was as far as his brilliance reached, as injury issues affected his performance. Sheets still hasn't been able to recapture the magic and might not have much left in his arm.

Highlight: 2004, a great pitcher on a bad team.

Hall call: Is there a Hall of Fame for potential?

Alfonso Soriano

Sometimes, the much-hyped prospects actually come through. Soriano was a ballyhooed Yankee prospect and hit right away, with 18 home runs and 43 stolen bases as a rookie. The power developed, and Soriano became a rare dual threat who terrorized opposing pitchers, including four 30-30 seasons. For all his strengths, Soriano never drew many walks, which has led to an unimpressive career on-base percentage of .323. Worse, that mark seems to be ever-decreasing, as Soriano has been below that level every season since 2008.

Highlight: Hitting the would-be winning home run in Game 7 of the 2001 World Series versus Arizona.

Hall call: Soriano was certainly one of the most exciting players of his generation and spent most of his career in New York and Chicago. At the end of the day, the power and speed won't be enough to overcome the other flaws in his game.

Ichiro Suzuki

Ichiro had almost 1,300 hits and a .943 OPS in eight seasons in Japan. Naturally, lofty expectations were set when he came to the United States in 2001. Right off the bat, he hit well, and really didn't stop until his mysterious drop-off this season. Ichiro plays almost every game, excels in the field and on the basepaths and has hit over .350 four times. No matter how it ends, Ichiro's legacy will be impressive; the icing on the cake will be if he enters (and wins) the Home Run Derby.

Highlight: Setting the all-time single-season hits mark in 2004.

Hall call: Even without his Japan stats, Ichiro's career numbers are terrific, especially his defense and 80 percent stolen base rate. He should make it to Cooperstown on his first ballot.

Michael Young

Young was 24 when he became a Rangers regular, which is older than where most stars begin. Young proved to be one of the most consistent and versatile players in baseball. He's had modest power, a small amount of speed, and played over 300 games at three different positions. Young has always hit around .300 but rarely walked so never threatened to lead the league in OBP. Despite trade rumors and position shifts, Young has continued to play at a high level into his mid-30s.

Highlight: Winning the 2006 All-Star Game MVP.

Hall call: With 2,000 hits and counting, Young might someday approach counting stat totals that will make the discussion interesting, although he was certainly never close to the best player in the league.

David Lipman is a senior manager for ESPN Mobile, and you can follow him on Twitter.

The trade deadline is fun, full of rumors and feverishly hyped, tweeted and talked about. But how much impact does it actually have?

Here's a more detailed look at the past three seasons.

2010

AL playoff teams on July 31
Yankees
White Sox
Rangers
Rays (wild card)

Next closest: Twins -0.5, Red Sox -5.5.

Final playoff teams
Rays
Twins
Rangers
Yankees (wild card)

Big moves: Rangers picked up Cliff Lee in early July; White Sox get Edwin Jackson; Twins add Matt Capps; Angels acquire Dan Haren.

What happened: The Twins went 36-22 the rest of the season to win the Central by six games. Capps went 2-0 with 16 saves and the Twins won both games he had a blown save anyway. Lee wasn't great for the Rangers in the regular season (4-6, 3.98), but they won the division by nine games over Oakland.

Impact: None. Capps was a nice pickup, but it was mostly an improvement in the starting rotation that spurred the Twins in August and September. The Red Sox curiously remained quiet and never got in the race.

NL playoff teams on July 31
Braves
Cardinals
Padres
Giants (wild card)

Next closest: Reds -0.5, Phillies -3.5

Final playoff teams
Phillies
Reds
Giants
Braves (wild card)

Big moves: Phillies get Roy Oswalt, Dodgers get Ted Lilly from Cubs, Padres acquire Ryan Ludwick.

What happened: Oswalt was superb as the Phillies went 41-17 down the stretch. The Padres had the best record in the NL on July 31, but finished 30-30 while the Giants went 32-25 (with help from Cody Ross and Jose Guillen, both picked up in August). Their only deadline deal was reliever Ramon Ramirez from the Red Sox.

Impact: Small, with little action. The Giants only added spare parts, and two of those in August. The Phillies trailed the Braves by 3.5 on July 31, with Oswalt a key part of their eventual six-game spread over the Braves. But they would have made the playoffs without him.

2009

AL playoff teams on July 31
Yankees
Tigers
Angels
Red Sox (wild card)

Next closest: Rangers -1.5, White Sox -1.5, Twins -2, Rays -4.5

Final playoff teams
Yankees
Twins
Angels
Red Sox (wild card)

Big moves: Red Sox acquire Victor Martinez, White Sox get Jake Peavy, Tigers trade for Jarrod Washburn, Twins get Orlando Cabrera.

What happened: The Twins tied the Tigers for the division lead and won the tiebreaker, and Washburn was a big reason why as he went 1-3 with a 7.33 ERA in eight starts for the Tigers after he had posted a 2.64 ERA for Seattle. Peavy, meanwhile, made just three starts for the White Sox while Cabrera scored 42 runs in 59 games with the Twins.

Impact: Big. The Cabrera/Washburn deals had a huge impact on the Central, with Washburn's failures doing major damage to the Tigers. Cabrera wasn't great for the Twins, but solidified shortstop, where Nick Punto and Brendan Harris hadn't done the job.

NL playoff teams on July 31
Phillies
Cardinals
Dodgers
Rockies/Giants (wild card)

Next closest: Cubs -0.5.

Final playoff teams
Phillies
Cardinals
Dodgers
Rockies

Big moves: Phillies get Cliff Lee, Cardinals acquire Matt Holliday, Giants acquire Freddy Sanchez.

What happened: The Cardinals acquired Holliday on July 24 and he was a huge reason St. Louis pulled away from the Cubs as he hit .353/.419/.612 with 55 RBIs in 63 games. The Phillies had a comfortable lead in the East, which Lee helped maintain, and he led them into the World Series, going 4-0 in the postseason. The Rockies added only relievers Rafael Betancourt and Joe Beimel but went 36-23 the rest of the way, the best mark in the NL.

Impact: Moderate. The Cubs didn't do anything, but truth is they weren't as good as the Cards, who won the division by 7.5 games.

2008

AL playoff teams on July 31
Rays
White Sox/Twins
Angels
Red Sox (wild card)

Next closest: Yankees -1.5

Final playoff teams
Rays
White Sox
Angels
Red Sox (wild card)

Big moves: Angels trade for Mark Teixeira, Red Sox get Jason Bay, Yankees acquire Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte, White Sox get Ken Griffey Jr.

What happened: The White Sox remained in a battle all season, although the only move either team made was Chicago picked up Griffey from the Reds. The teams tied for the division with the White Sox winning the tiebreaker. The Red Sox picked up Bay in the Manny Ramirez three-way deal and held off the Yankees for the wild card, going 34-19 to the Yankees' 30-24.

Impact: Minor. The Angels had a huge lead when they got Teixeira from the Braves, so he was acquired to make a postseason impact. It didn't happen, as the Red Sox beat the Angels in four games in the American League Division Series. Nady played OK for the Yankees, but that was a team that gave a combined 35 starts to Darrell Rasner and Sidney Ponson. They weren't going to catch the Red Sox.

NL playoff teams on July 31
Phillies
Cubs
Diamondbacks
Brewers/Cardinals (wild card)

Next closest: Mets -1, Marlins -1.5, Dodgers -2.

Final playoff teams
Phillies
Cubs
Dodgers
Brewers (wild card)

Big moves: Brewers get CC Sabathia on July 7, Dodgers get Manny Ramirez and Casey Blake, Phillies acquired Joe Blanton on July 17.

What happened: Sabathia wasn't quite a deadline deal since he came over in early July, and it's a good thing they made the deal since they didn't win the wild card until the final day of the season. Sabathia went 11-2, 1.65 for the Brewers, including three starts down the stretch on three days' rest (including the clincher). Ramirez was an absolute beast for the Dodgers, hitting .396/.489/.743, with 17 home runs and 53 RBIs in 53 games. The Dodgers went 30-24 to catch the D-backs, who went 26-28 after making just two minor moves in Tony Clark and Jon Rauch. The Phillies, meanwhile, held off the collapsing Mets by three games, with Blanton going 4-0, 4.20 in 13 starts.

Impact: Huge. The Brewers don't make the playoffs without Sabathia and the Dodgers probably don't win the West without Ramirez (they finished two games up on Arizona).

SERIES OF THE WEEK

Pittsburgh at Atlanta, Monday through Thursday

Monday: James McDonald (6-4, 4.15) vs. Tim Hudson (9-6, 3.29), ESPN, 7 p.m. ET
Tuesday: Jeff Karstens (8-5, 2.28) vs. Tommy Hanson (11-5, 3.06)
Wednesday: Paul Maholm (6-10, 3.26) vs. Jair Jurrjens (12-3, 2.44)
Thursday: Kevin Correia (11-8, 4.38) vs. Derek Lowe (6-8, 4.49)

The trade deadline doesn't come until Sunday and the Pirates hope that won't be loo late for reinforcements. The Pirates have seven road games against the Braves and Phillies this week. Hudson loves pitching at home -- 2.73 in Atlanta in 2011, compared to 4.47 on the road. The key pitcher to watch for the Pirates is All-Star Correia, who has posted a 5.86 ERA over his past nine starts.

PITCHING MATCHUP OF THE WEEK

Tuesday: Justin Verlander (13-5, 2.24) vs. Mark Buehrle (7-4, 3.38), Tigers at White Sox

The Giants and Phillies begin the week with a three-game series, but none of the aces match up, so we'll go with this crucial AL Central showdown. Buehrle has quietly and efficiently kept the Sox in nearly every game he's started this season, as he hasn't allowed more than three runs since April 22 -- a streak of 14 starts. He may need to pitch a shutout in this one.

THREE STRIKES

1. Our Red Sox blog wrote about this last week, but it's difficult to argue for Adrian Gonzalez as AL MVP when he may not even be the MVP on his own team. Dustin Pedroia has been excellent, but Jacoby Ellsbury has been unbelievable. With five home runs in his past 10 games, he's now just one behind A-Gone (who has just one in July), and has 45 extra-base hits to Gonzalez's 50. He has 28 steals to Gonzalez's one, and while Gonzalez plays an excellent first base, Ellsbury plays a solid center field, a more important defensive position. His latest power display came on Friday night, off Felix Hernandez, when he golfed a low fastball that was just a few inches off the ground deep over fence in right. On a team of stars, Ellsbury's is starting to shine the most.

2. When you have so much parity like this, it only takes one or two players having bad seasons to derail a potential playoff bid. Which teams have given the most playing time to bad players? Looking at the primary playoff contenders, here is how many plate appearances each team has given to hitters with an OPS+ (on-base + slugging percentage, adjusted for home park, scaled to where 100 is a league average hitter) of 75 or less, entering Sunday's action. (From Baseball-Reference.com.)

National League
1. Brewers, 1250
2. Braves, 823
3. Giants, 809
4. Pirates, 660
5. Phillies, 534
6. Reds, 461
7. Diamondbacks, 456
8. Cardinals, 231

The Brewers are the team that should be kicking itself the most if it misses the playoffs, high in star power but a brutal bottom of the roster. Yuniesky Betancourt's line was predictable, but Casey McGehee has been even worse. Both have held their jobs. What is inexcusable is giving more than 300 plate appearances to vets Craig Counsell and Mark Kotsay.

American League
1. White Sox, 1221
2. Rays, 729
3. Tigers, 559
4. Red Sox, 488
5. Indians, 462
6. Angels, 432
7. Rangers, 333
8. Yankees, 121

Will the White Sox continue to play Alex Rios and Adam Dunn as the calendar flips to August? Rios is hitting .207, Dunn .160. Ozzie Guillen must still have faith: He hit Dunn cleanup on Sunday. One of less-heralded bad positions has been the Tampa Bay shortstops, where Reid Brignac and Elliott Johnson are both hitting under .200. Sean Rodriguez made his 11th start there on Sunday, but he's made five errors there with little range.

3. The Mariners have lost 15 straight. I was at Friday's game at Fenway when Felix Hernandez pitched. The King was alternately frustrated and unfocused, but mostly he displayed an alarming amount of bad body language throughout the game. When the Mariners scored a run in the first and then the Red Sox tied it in the bottom of the inning on a Kevin Youkilis RBI single, Hernandez waited to cross paths with Youk after getting out of the inning. Both players smiled and laughed, as Hernandez probably said something to the extent of "Well, there's the ballgame." When Felix departed, not one player met him at the top of the dugout to shake his good or give him a pat on the back. It's a bad situation in Seattle and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Mariners shop Hernandez around in the offseason.

By the way, here are the past five teams to lose 15 or more in row:

2005 Royals: 19 straight losses.
Final record: 56-106.
Next season: 62-100.
Next winning season: Still waiting.

2002 Devil Rays: 15 straight losses.
Final record: 55-106.
Next season: 63-99.
Next winning season: 2008.

1988 Orioles: 21 straight losses.
Final record: 54-107.
Next season: 87-75.

1982 Mets: 15 straight losses.
Final record: 65-97.
Next season: 68-94.
Next winning season: 1984.

1977 Braves: 17 straight losses.
Final record: 61-101.
Next season: 69-93.
Next winning season: 1980.

RANT OF THE WEEK
I find it hard to believe this report, which suggests the Cardinals could trade Colby Rasmus to the White Sox for Edwin Jackson or Matt Thornton plus a prospect. Even if the prospect is lefty pitcher Chris Sale, Chicago's first-round pick in 2010, I don't think it makes much sense for St. Louis. Jackson is a free agent and inconsistent -- 3.97 ERA but a 1.43 WHIP.

PHOTO OF THE DAY