SweetSpot: Ryan Braun
Tuesday night was an angry one for quite a few players, managers and umpires, but Mark Simon and I were in good moods to chronicle it all for Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast!
1. Washington Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg had a miserable outing Tuesday, and then when his manager told the world what might have contributed, it got worse.
2. Toronto Blue Jays slugger Brett Lawrie lost his cool in the ninth inning Tuesday, and look for the Blue Jays to be without his services for a while. Mark says Lawrie needs help.
3. The Angels found a fall guy for the struggles of Albert Pujols, but is manager Mike Scioscia safe?
4. The Mets are in the news for David Wright being pulled from a game, and also a topic for an emailer, as well as Atlanta’s offense and success for certain days of the week.
5. Wednesday’s schedule features the ESPN matchup of Clay Buchholz and Jeremy Hellickson, a pair of right-handers that the metrics do not favor.
So download and listen to Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast, because we’re never removed early for the fear of retaliation.
1. Washington Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg had a miserable outing Tuesday, and then when his manager told the world what might have contributed, it got worse.
2. Toronto Blue Jays slugger Brett Lawrie lost his cool in the ninth inning Tuesday, and look for the Blue Jays to be without his services for a while. Mark says Lawrie needs help.
3. The Angels found a fall guy for the struggles of Albert Pujols, but is manager Mike Scioscia safe?
4. The Mets are in the news for David Wright being pulled from a game, and also a topic for an emailer, as well as Atlanta’s offense and success for certain days of the week.
5. Wednesday’s schedule features the ESPN matchup of Clay Buchholz and Jeremy Hellickson, a pair of right-handers that the metrics do not favor.
So download and listen to Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast, because we’re never removed early for the fear of retaliation.
Vote: Best single game performance ever
May, 1, 2012
May 1
4:40
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Time for a quick poll. Ryan Braun went 4-for-5 with three home runs, a triple and six RBIs (the first player with three homers and triple since Fred Lynn in 1975) on Monday night, giving him 15 total bases. Certainly a great day, one of the best in major league history, especially if you factor in that it came at spacious Petco Park. But according to Baseball-Reference.com's Play Index, since 1918 17 players have had at least 16 total bases.
So today's question: Which hitter had the greatest day in major league history? We can only list five in the poll, so I've narrowed the field down to five finalists. (Note: Postseason performances not included since they're a different beast.)
1. Carlos Delgado, 2003 Blue Jays: 4-for-4, 4 HR, 4 R, 6 RBIs (box score)
Several players have hit four home runs in a game, but Delgado is the only one to do it in four plate appearances. Isn't that perfection? He hit a three-run homer in the first and three solo shots, all leading off an inning.
2. Shawn Green, 2002 Dodgers: 6-for-6, 4 HR, 2B, 6 R, 7 RBIs (box score)
Green set the major league record with 19 total bases in a game the Dodgers hit eight home runs. He's also just one of eight players since 1918 to score six runs in a game. Green's homers came off Brian Mallette (two), Glendon Rusch and Jose Cabrera. I had to look up Mallette. He pitched in five games in his career and this ended up being his final major league appearance.
3. Mark Whiten, 1993 Cardinals: 4-for-5, 4 HR, 4 R, 12 RBIs (box score)
In the second game of a doubleheader, Hard-Hittin' Whiten tied major league records with his four homers and 12 RBIs. He hit a grand slam, two three-run homers and a two-run shot, fouling out with the bases empty in the fourth.
4. Fred Lynn, 1975 Red Sox: 5-for-6, 3 HR, 3B, 4 R, 10 RBIs (box score)
Lynn hit a two-run homer and three-run homer in the first two innings off Joe Coleman, a two-run triple in the third and a three-run homer in the ninth. In between, he lined out and singled.
5. Jim Bottomley, 1924 Cardinals: 6-for-6, 2 HR, 2B, 3 R, 12 RBIs (box score)
Batting cleanup for the Cardinals against the Brooklyn Robins, Bottomley hit a two-run single, an RBI double, a grand slam, a two-run homer, a two-run single and an RBI single. Not a bad day's work.
My vote goes to Green: The total bases record and six runs scored. Jose Reyes scored six all month for the Marlins.
So today's question: Which hitter had the greatest day in major league history? We can only list five in the poll, so I've narrowed the field down to five finalists. (Note: Postseason performances not included since they're a different beast.)
1. Carlos Delgado, 2003 Blue Jays: 4-for-4, 4 HR, 4 R, 6 RBIs (box score)
Several players have hit four home runs in a game, but Delgado is the only one to do it in four plate appearances. Isn't that perfection? He hit a three-run homer in the first and three solo shots, all leading off an inning.
2. Shawn Green, 2002 Dodgers: 6-for-6, 4 HR, 2B, 6 R, 7 RBIs (box score)
Green set the major league record with 19 total bases in a game the Dodgers hit eight home runs. He's also just one of eight players since 1918 to score six runs in a game. Green's homers came off Brian Mallette (two), Glendon Rusch and Jose Cabrera. I had to look up Mallette. He pitched in five games in his career and this ended up being his final major league appearance.
3. Mark Whiten, 1993 Cardinals: 4-for-5, 4 HR, 4 R, 12 RBIs (box score)
In the second game of a doubleheader, Hard-Hittin' Whiten tied major league records with his four homers and 12 RBIs. He hit a grand slam, two three-run homers and a two-run shot, fouling out with the bases empty in the fourth.
4. Fred Lynn, 1975 Red Sox: 5-for-6, 3 HR, 3B, 4 R, 10 RBIs (box score)
Lynn hit a two-run homer and three-run homer in the first two innings off Joe Coleman, a two-run triple in the third and a three-run homer in the ninth. In between, he lined out and singled.
5. Jim Bottomley, 1924 Cardinals: 6-for-6, 2 HR, 2B, 3 R, 12 RBIs (box score)
Batting cleanup for the Cardinals against the Brooklyn Robins, Bottomley hit a two-run single, an RBI double, a grand slam, a two-run homer, a two-run single and an RBI single. Not a bad day's work.
My vote goes to Green: The total bases record and six runs scored. Jose Reyes scored six all month for the Marlins.
For Tuesday's Baseball Today podcast I was joined by special guest ESPN.com senior writer Jim Caple. Somehow we managed to avoid talking about the Seattle Mariners for the whole podcast. But we did discuss Jim's ballpark rankings.
1. We spent most of the show discussing Jim's list of 30 ballparks, but we also discussed Evan Longoria's injury.
2. Ryan Braun had a big night. Does this mean he doesn't need Prince Fielder hitting behind him?
3. Yu Darvish was marvelous yet again. Do we see him as a Cy Young contender or will he wilt in the Texas heat?
4. From No. 30 (Tropicana Field, no surprise) to No. 1 (PNC Park), we talk ballparks with a guy who has been to more than Jamie Moyer.
5. Finally, Bryce Harper make his home debut tonight and Jim remembers covering a 19-year-old Ken Griffey Jr.
Check it out on Tuesday's show!
1. We spent most of the show discussing Jim's list of 30 ballparks, but we also discussed Evan Longoria's injury.
2. Ryan Braun had a big night. Does this mean he doesn't need Prince Fielder hitting behind him?
3. Yu Darvish was marvelous yet again. Do we see him as a Cy Young contender or will he wilt in the Texas heat?
4. From No. 30 (Tropicana Field, no surprise) to No. 1 (PNC Park), we talk ballparks with a guy who has been to more than Jamie Moyer.
5. Finally, Bryce Harper make his home debut tonight and Jim remembers covering a 19-year-old Ken Griffey Jr.
Check it out on Tuesday's show!
First base: Braun bashes. I was actually thinking about Ryan Braun this afternoon. With Prince Fielder departed for greener pastures, you heard a lot of stuff in the offseason like "Braun won't get anything to hit" or "he'll get pitched around." After all, with Fielder hitting behind Braun last season, the NL MVP received just two intentional walks. Well, entering Monday's night game in San Diego, Braun was hitting .263/.322/.500. Not bad, but certainly not MVP numbers. What's interesting is that his strike rate was way up (24.4 percent from 14.8 percent) and his walk rate was down (6.7 percent from 9.2 percent).
The decreased walk rate indicates pitchers haven't been shying away from challenging him. On the other hand, the strikeout rate suggests maybe they have, only he's been chasing pitches out of the strike zone. So which is it? Actually, it's both. Before Monday, he'd seen basically the same percentage of strikes as last year -- 46.3 percent in 2012, 45.1 percent in 2011. Braun, however, had been swinging at more pitches out of the zone -- 29.9 percent in 2011, 34.4 percent in 2012. He was also swinging at 12 percent more pitches in the zone. Braun has never been a big walker, but this increased aggressiveness perhaps indicates a hitter trying to make too much happen without the big guy hitting behind him.
Anyway, the Padres challenged Braun on Monday and he didn't miss, becoming the first player to hit three home runs at spacious Petco Park, which opened in 2004. He homered in the fourth inning off Joe Wieland, swatting a first-pitch high fastball over the fence in right-center. In the fifth, he tomahawked a 2-2 Wieland slider into the upper deck of the Western Supply Co. warehouse in left field. In the seventh, he hit a first-pitch breaking ball from Ernesto Frieri just over the fence in left-center, prompting a smile as he rounded the bases. He had a chance for a fourth home run, but settled for one-hop triple off the fence in right-center.
Suddenly, he's hitting .294/.347/.647.
The lesson for Braun: Be patiently aggressive, if that makes sense. Two of his home runs came on meaty first pitches. He said after the game he has been inconsistent with his swing. But consistency comes with patience and discipline as well. Quit chasing pitches out of the zone and maybe he'll start connecting more with those in the zone.
Second base: Andy Pettitte roughed up. Hold off on that belief that Andy Pettitte is a sure thing as an upgrade over Freddy Garcia or Phil Hughes in the Yankees' rotation. He gave up six runs and 10 hits in 5.2 innings in a Class A start on Monday. On the positive side, he did strike out eight with no walks. "I feel good and it was another solid day," Pettitte said. "I felt the quality of pitches were as good as I've had in any of my starts up to now, and I was able to hold my velocity throughout. I feel like I'm ready to help the team." While Pettitte says he's ready, the Yankees are likely to give him two more minor league starts.
Third base: Pedro power. Pedro Alvarez still has an ugly .203 batting average and an awful 23/3 SO/BB ratio, but the once-heralded Pirates prospect is at least starting to show something. He hit his fifth home run of the season in the Pirates' 9-3 win over the Braves -- Pittsburgh's first game with more than five runs all month. Over his past eight games, he's hitting .345 with three home runs and four doubles. Hey, it's start. Ten days ago he was batting .067.
Home plate: Tweet of the day. We salute Mr. Braun:
The decreased walk rate indicates pitchers haven't been shying away from challenging him. On the other hand, the strikeout rate suggests maybe they have, only he's been chasing pitches out of the strike zone. So which is it? Actually, it's both. Before Monday, he'd seen basically the same percentage of strikes as last year -- 46.3 percent in 2012, 45.1 percent in 2011. Braun, however, had been swinging at more pitches out of the zone -- 29.9 percent in 2011, 34.4 percent in 2012. He was also swinging at 12 percent more pitches in the zone. Braun has never been a big walker, but this increased aggressiveness perhaps indicates a hitter trying to make too much happen without the big guy hitting behind him.
Anyway, the Padres challenged Braun on Monday and he didn't miss, becoming the first player to hit three home runs at spacious Petco Park, which opened in 2004. He homered in the fourth inning off Joe Wieland, swatting a first-pitch high fastball over the fence in right-center. In the fifth, he tomahawked a 2-2 Wieland slider into the upper deck of the Western Supply Co. warehouse in left field. In the seventh, he hit a first-pitch breaking ball from Ernesto Frieri just over the fence in left-center, prompting a smile as he rounded the bases. He had a chance for a fourth home run, but settled for one-hop triple off the fence in right-center.
Suddenly, he's hitting .294/.347/.647.
The lesson for Braun: Be patiently aggressive, if that makes sense. Two of his home runs came on meaty first pitches. He said after the game he has been inconsistent with his swing. But consistency comes with patience and discipline as well. Quit chasing pitches out of the zone and maybe he'll start connecting more with those in the zone.
Second base: Andy Pettitte roughed up. Hold off on that belief that Andy Pettitte is a sure thing as an upgrade over Freddy Garcia or Phil Hughes in the Yankees' rotation. He gave up six runs and 10 hits in 5.2 innings in a Class A start on Monday. On the positive side, he did strike out eight with no walks. "I feel good and it was another solid day," Pettitte said. "I felt the quality of pitches were as good as I've had in any of my starts up to now, and I was able to hold my velocity throughout. I feel like I'm ready to help the team." While Pettitte says he's ready, the Yankees are likely to give him two more minor league starts.
Third base: Pedro power. Pedro Alvarez still has an ugly .203 batting average and an awful 23/3 SO/BB ratio, but the once-heralded Pirates prospect is at least starting to show something. He hit his fifth home run of the season in the Pirates' 9-3 win over the Braves -- Pittsburgh's first game with more than five runs all month. Over his past eight games, he's hitting .345 with three home runs and four doubles. Hey, it's start. Ten days ago he was batting .067.
Home plate: Tweet of the day. We salute Mr. Braun:
That's why baseball is the greatest game there is. A routine Monday night & there's suddenly a surprise: #Brewers Ryan Braun 3 HR, 6 RBI.
— Steve Berthiaume (@SBerthiaumeESPN) May 1, 2012
Yep, just another boring April of baseball where nothing exciting happened. We only had one of the greatest April performances of all time. We had a perfect game. We saw the Red Sox blow a 9-0 lead at home to the Yankees -- and lose by six runs. We saw one of the best hitters of all time turn into one of the worst players in the game, at least for a month. We saw pitchers dominate -- 20 starters have an ERA under 2.00. We saw a 19-year-old phenom make his major league debut. We saw a venerable veteran hit .389 with 37 hits. To cap it off, on the final day of the month we saw Ryan Braun hit three home runs out of the Grand Canyon -- aka, Petco Park.
Braun is the first player to hit three home runs at Petco, no mean feat considering it's something like 748 feet to the power alleys. As impressive as that achievement is, it doesn't quite land Braun on our all-April All-Star team.
C: Yadier Molina, Cardinals (.316/.369/.592, 4 HR, 15 RBIs)
Molina is proving last season's power surge was no fluke as he ripped out nine doubles and four home runs in April. He's nailed 43 percent of basestealers and the Cardinals have a 2.61 staff ERA. Terms like team leader are thrown out a bit loosely, but there's little doubt Molina is the heart and soul of the Cards. If not for Matt Kemp, you could make a case for Molina as April's MVP.
1B: Bryan LaHair, Cubs (.390/.470/.780, 5 HR, 14 RBIs)
One of the feel-good stories of the month, the 29-year-old minor league veteran was given the first base job only as a placeholder for prospect Anthony Rizzo. He may not give it up quite so easily. Thirteen of his 23 hits have been for extra bases and, incredibly, he's batting .676 when not striking out. Yeah, yeah ... that impossible to keep up, of course. Still, he could make for some interesting trade bait for a team in a pennant looking for some power at first base. (Yes, we mean you, Los Angeles Dodgers.)
2B: Ian Kinsler, Rangers (.298/.400/.574, 5 HR, 12 RBIs)
Most impressively: 24 runs in 23 games. Since 1950, only 11 times has a player scored 140 runs in a season. Only one of those -- Jeff Bagwell in 2000 -- scored 150 runs. If Kinsler can maintain that .400 OBP -- 45 points higher than last season -- he may have a shot.
3B: David Wright, Mets (.389/.494/.569, 3 HR, 14 RBIs)
Last season was a rough one for third basemen, as several of the top guys landed on the DL. Things got so bad that Scott Rolen made the NL All-Star team. It's a different story in 2012, as six regulars are hitting over .300, Miguel Cabrera is hitting .298 with power and Chase Headley is off to a terrific start for the Padres. But Wright kept his OBP over .500 until the final day of April. Cardinals fans will point to David Freese's 20 RBIs, but Wright's big lead in walks (16 to four) gives him the edge.
SS: Derek Jeter, Yankees (.394/.437/.585, 4 HR, 13 RBIs)
So much for needing a rest. Jeter played every game this month (four starts at DH) and led the majors with 37 hits. His 10 extra-base hits are already nearly one-third of the 34 he punched out a year ago. The range at shortstop remains problematic, but nobody seems to care right now.
LF: Josh Hamilton, Rangers (.395/.438/.744, 9 HR, 25 RBIs
OK, maybe I cheated a little bit here: Hamilton has played twice as many innings in center in left. Sorry, Josh Willingham.
CF: Matt Kemp, Dodgers (.417/.490/.893, 12 HR, 25 RBIs)
We bow down to your greatness, Mr. Kemp, and can't wait to see what you do in May.
RF: Corey Hart, Brewers (.270/.360/.635, 6 HR, 13 RBIs
Not bad for a guy who had knee surgery in early March and wasn't expected to be ready for the start of the season.
DH: David Ortiz, Red Sox (.405/.457/.726, 6 HR, 20 RBIs)
Remember April and May of 2009, when Big Papi hit .185 with one home run? "Trust me, I am not finished," Ortiz said in early June of that year. Many Red Sox fans wanted the club to release him. A Boston columnist called for the club to do so. Maybe it did come close to doing so.
P: Jake Peavy, White Sox (3-1, 1.67, 37.2 IP, 21 H, 5 BB, 33 SO
My pitcher of the month for April, it's great to see Peavy healthy and slinging again. He put together a terrific first five starts, in part because had to face Boston, Texas, Detroit and Baltimore in four of those games.
P: Stephen Strasburg, Nationals (2-0, 1.13, 32 IP, 22 H, 6 BB, 34 SO
He's allowed four runs in five starts ... and has two victories. Please explain to your friends why wins are overrated. He's been absolutely dominant, hasn't allowed a home run and with the Nationals leading the NL East, the speculation has already heated about what the club will do about Strasburg's supposed innings limit if the club is in the pennant race in September. We'll worry about that then; for now, let's enjoy a master at work.
RP: Aroldis Chapman, Reds (2-0, 0.00, 12.1 IP, 5 H, 4 BB, 21 SO)
He's gotten 37 outs -- so 57 percent of his outs have come via the strikeout. It leaves one to wonder: How would he do starting? Please, Dusty, give us the chance to find out.
Guy I wanted to put on the team: Jose Altuve, Astros (.360/.404/.547)
The little guy can flat rake. Enjoy, Astros fans.
Strikeouts don't mean everything award: Derek Lowe, Indians
Lowe is 4-1 with a 2.27 ERA even though he has just nine strikeouts in five starts.
Most un-All-Star: Albert Pujols, Angels (.217/.265/.304, 0 HR, 4 RBIs)
Sorry, with $240 million comes more pressure, more scrutiny and expectations that maybe you'll hit one or two home runs per month. Pujols was arguably the worst player in baseball in April. Who would have thought we'd ever hear such words?
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Denis Poroy/Getty ImagesRyan Braun hits his fourth-inning home run -- his first of three big blasts.Brewers-Dodgers generates its own drama
April, 19, 2012
Apr 19
1:00
AM ET
By Christina Kahrl | ESPN.com
From beginning to end, this was baseball as it oughta be, any night and every night, from a first-pitch beginning to a dramatic finale. The Milwaukee Brewers came away with their second consecutive walk-off win when Ryan Braun's bases-loaded sac fly plated Nyjer Morgan in the bottom of the 10th for a 3-2 final. As a matter of odds, chance or simple fortune, it wasn’t really supposed to play out that way: Morgan ran through a stop sign, and thanks to the fallible human in blue as well as his own baserunning derring-do, he was ruled safe in what might be better called a sprint-off win, not a mere walk-off.
But from the start, this was one to watch. A contest between the Brewers with Zack Greinke on the mound, going up against baseball’s hottest batter and hottest team, Matt Kemp and the Los Angeles Dodgers? That’s a slice of baseball perfection, the everyday metronome of the season giving you something worth seeing, this night like every night. Add in a surprising pitching duel between between Greinke, the Brewers’ ace du jour, and Chris Capuano, a prodigal son come back to haunt Milwaukee. And add in another game between these two teams decided on the last at-bat, and you’ve got the makings of a rivalry forged on the field, the best way these things happen.
Nevertheless, high stakes ... in April? Well, no, of course not, every game counts the same, and the Dodgers weren’t going to go 9-1 every 10 times out. But after the Brewers’ late-game rally against the Dodgers on Tuesday night, when they won in the bottom of the ninth on George Kottaras two-run double off L.A.’s closer, Javy Guerra, you might have already had a sense that these two teams are more closely matched this time around than Milwaukee’s 14-win advantage from 2011 would suggest.
Morgan, ever the base-paths commando, gets credit for doing something wrong or foolhardy or gutsy or dumb, probably depending on your familiarity with base-out matrix, or perhaps your love or loathing of all things Tony Plush. But it’s more than that, and even Morgan’s scamper, ill-considered though it was, was simultaneously fun and decisive.
You might wonder how Braun, reigning National League MVP, went to the plate in a 10th-inning tie and got to swing a bat in that situation. Well, say what you will about the Dodgers’ Matt Guerrier, the man on the mound, but give the credit to Tuesday’s man, George Kottaras, because Kottaras drew a free pass with runners on second and third and one out. If Kottaras doesn’t do that, if he makes an out, it’s Braun standing on first base with an unintentional/intentional walk and Aramis Ramirez who gets to be johnny-on-the-spot. No Kottaras walk, and we might still be enjoying baseball from Milwaukee. Even that bit of batsmanship was set up by tactical failure -- Ron Roenicke’s reliable penchant for gambitry had Morgan pinch-run and Cesar Izturis pop away a bunt just two batters into the 10th.
These aren’t the only bits of consistency for the Brewers from this year to last. Early on, you could wonder which Greinke was going to show up, the ace he helped propel the Brewers into the postseason, or the incendiary device who got lit up in his first 11 starts last season once he came back from the DL, surrendering 6.1 runs per nine. One out and a triple into the night, watching Kemp plate Mark Ellis from third, you could wonder.
But Greinke settled down from there, but it was the sort of game where the stars weren’t the only ones who shined. Capuano, a man who spent seven years with the Brewers but two of them on the DL with career-threatening elbow problems, was ready to deliver the sort of start that might make Dodgers GM Ned Colletti look good, grinding out six innings to provide a quality start against a good Brewers' offense. If Capuano’s durable enough to join Aaron Harang as innings eaters at the back end of the rotation while Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley do their thing from the front end, the Dodgers will be in enough ballgames to contend.
A.J. Ellis may not get a ton of credit as the Dodgers’ internal choice to fulfill their catching needs this season, but he has been a stathead fave for years for his willingness to work for walks. It was his chopper in the fifth that plated a lead run, and it was his eighth-inning baserunner kill, nailing Carlos Gomez with a perfect peg from behind the plate, that took the bat out of Corey Hart's hands. And maybe, just maybe, he got the tag on Kemp’s throw from shallow center down on Morgan in time; history may not record it, even if instant replay might. Of course, his throwing error in the 10th makes him partially responsible for the outcome, but the unloved Ellis had his moments as well.
Going forward, the Dodgers were due to cool off, and two late-game losses in a row might represent that bit of karma. But with Kenley Jansen coming into his own as baseball’s next great set-up man, Guerra’s talent, and Josh Lindblom looking pretty good, late-game drama won’t always come at the Dodgers’ expense.
And for Milwaukee? They’re still good, surprising nobody on this or any night to come. In the broad strokes, with Greinke’s season tally at two good starts and one awful one, you can wonder if his Jekyll-Hyde act can go only so far if his rep as a Cy Young winner is going to have any enduring value. That’s not just significant for the Brewers now as they try to defend their NL Central crown, it’s important for Greinke immediately afterwards, because he’s lined up to be a free agent this winter. He’ll make his millions, to be sure, but you can wonder if Greinke’s a great bet for the highest of high rollers in the biggest of big markets -- and the media glare that comes with such things.
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.
But from the start, this was one to watch. A contest between the Brewers with Zack Greinke on the mound, going up against baseball’s hottest batter and hottest team, Matt Kemp and the Los Angeles Dodgers? That’s a slice of baseball perfection, the everyday metronome of the season giving you something worth seeing, this night like every night. Add in a surprising pitching duel between between Greinke, the Brewers’ ace du jour, and Chris Capuano, a prodigal son come back to haunt Milwaukee. And add in another game between these two teams decided on the last at-bat, and you’ve got the makings of a rivalry forged on the field, the best way these things happen.
Nevertheless, high stakes ... in April? Well, no, of course not, every game counts the same, and the Dodgers weren’t going to go 9-1 every 10 times out. But after the Brewers’ late-game rally against the Dodgers on Tuesday night, when they won in the bottom of the ninth on George Kottaras two-run double off L.A.’s closer, Javy Guerra, you might have already had a sense that these two teams are more closely matched this time around than Milwaukee’s 14-win advantage from 2011 would suggest.
Morgan, ever the base-paths commando, gets credit for doing something wrong or foolhardy or gutsy or dumb, probably depending on your familiarity with base-out matrix, or perhaps your love or loathing of all things Tony Plush. But it’s more than that, and even Morgan’s scamper, ill-considered though it was, was simultaneously fun and decisive.
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Morry GashNyjer Morgan celebrates scoring the winning run in the 10th inning on a sacrifice fly from Ryan Braun.
AP Photo/Morry GashNyjer Morgan celebrates scoring the winning run in the 10th inning on a sacrifice fly from Ryan Braun.These aren’t the only bits of consistency for the Brewers from this year to last. Early on, you could wonder which Greinke was going to show up, the ace he helped propel the Brewers into the postseason, or the incendiary device who got lit up in his first 11 starts last season once he came back from the DL, surrendering 6.1 runs per nine. One out and a triple into the night, watching Kemp plate Mark Ellis from third, you could wonder.
But Greinke settled down from there, but it was the sort of game where the stars weren’t the only ones who shined. Capuano, a man who spent seven years with the Brewers but two of them on the DL with career-threatening elbow problems, was ready to deliver the sort of start that might make Dodgers GM Ned Colletti look good, grinding out six innings to provide a quality start against a good Brewers' offense. If Capuano’s durable enough to join Aaron Harang as innings eaters at the back end of the rotation while Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley do their thing from the front end, the Dodgers will be in enough ballgames to contend.
A.J. Ellis may not get a ton of credit as the Dodgers’ internal choice to fulfill their catching needs this season, but he has been a stathead fave for years for his willingness to work for walks. It was his chopper in the fifth that plated a lead run, and it was his eighth-inning baserunner kill, nailing Carlos Gomez with a perfect peg from behind the plate, that took the bat out of Corey Hart's hands. And maybe, just maybe, he got the tag on Kemp’s throw from shallow center down on Morgan in time; history may not record it, even if instant replay might. Of course, his throwing error in the 10th makes him partially responsible for the outcome, but the unloved Ellis had his moments as well.
Going forward, the Dodgers were due to cool off, and two late-game losses in a row might represent that bit of karma. But with Kenley Jansen coming into his own as baseball’s next great set-up man, Guerra’s talent, and Josh Lindblom looking pretty good, late-game drama won’t always come at the Dodgers’ expense.
And for Milwaukee? They’re still good, surprising nobody on this or any night to come. In the broad strokes, with Greinke’s season tally at two good starts and one awful one, you can wonder if his Jekyll-Hyde act can go only so far if his rep as a Cy Young winner is going to have any enduring value. That’s not just significant for the Brewers now as they try to defend their NL Central crown, it’s important for Greinke immediately afterwards, because he’s lined up to be a free agent this winter. He’ll make his millions, to be sure, but you can wonder if Greinke’s a great bet for the highest of high rollers in the biggest of big markets -- and the media glare that comes with such things.
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.
Most accurate predictions on the Internet!
April, 4, 2012
Apr 4
3:45
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
I'm with Steve Berthiaume: Predictions are generally a big pain in the neck. Read Steve's column and understand: If I don't pick your team, it doesn't mean I hate them or root against them or like the Yankees better than the Red Sox or vice versa. Last season, I infamously projected the Phillies to win 90 games and miss the playoffs ... OK, I was only off by 12 wins. Hey, I could defend my analysis -- Vance Worley's surprise season, Chase Utley returned sooner than expected, the bullpen was great, Cole Hamels had his best year, the Hunter Pence trade -- but bottom line: I was wrong.
And that's good. As Steve writes, baseball wouldn't be so great if we were always right.
What I did was project each team's runs scored and runs allowed and project their win-loss record from there. Of course, the runs scored and allowed totals have to add up to same number. Not every team can exceed it's over/under line. Overall, I project 21,055 runs scored, a 247-run increase over 2010 (there were 21,308 runs in 2010). Note, of course, that in reality every team doesn't match its projected runs scored/allowed wins total. Last season, for example, the Tigers and Diamondbacks exceeded their Pythagoren record by six wins.
So here are my surely-to-be-wrong predictions ...
AL EAST
I know, I know ... I couple weeks ago I declared the Red Sox the team to beat in the AL East. Since then Andrew Bailey has landed on the DL after thumb surgery and Josh Beckett has some sort of thumb injury as well. It doesn't sound serious, but those are two red flags. No matter how you slice it, the division should be a terrific three-way race. The Yankees and Rays have more rotation depth but I like Boston's lineup. And don't discount the Blue Jays. If Colby Rasmus rebounds, Adam Lind has a better season and Brett Lawrie lives up to expectations, this lineup could score 800-plus. It just needs the back of the rotation to produce and the Jays could be a sleeper contenders if one of the favorites falters.
AL CENTRAL
I went on record earlier as picking the Indians to win the AL Central, so I now apologize to all Cleveland fans as I change my mind. I just couldn't make the math work and Ubaldo Jimenez's spring struggles and state of mind are a huge concern. Still, I do believe the Tigers are vulnerable; look, if Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello take a big step forward the Tigers will run away with the division, no matter how grounders slip past Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. For now, I still those two as inconsistent 3-4 starters and I suspect that regression from Alex Avila and Jhonny Peralta may cancel out some of the offensive gains Fielder will provide. Some people like the Royals, but I don't see a .500-caliber rotation and I'm lukewarm about the offense once you get past Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon and Billy Butler. Even with some bounce-back from Adam Dunn and Alex Rios, the White Sox will struggle to score runs. Their rotation could be interesting, however. And the Twins ... well, they're just one season removed from 94 wins.
AL WEST
No surprise here: should be a great two-team race. The Rangers had a run differential 144 runs better than the Angels last year; that's a lot of ground to make up. Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson and perhaps Kendrys Morales will produce a large chunk of that and the Rangers may regress a little, but the Angels will need to find improved offense somewhere else (and we mean you, Vernon Wells). The A's were actually closer to the Angels in run differential a season ago than the Angels were to the Rangers, but this is still a lineup with Coco Crisp hitting third to start the season. The Mariners will score more runs, but that isn't saying much. Safeco Field will help the pitching staff look better than it is, but Mariners will be watching Double-A Jackson with nearly as much interest as the big league club.
NL EAST
So I was talking to a Phillies fan here in the office and told him I was picking them despite the Ryan Howard and Chase Utley injuries. His response: "We don't want you." Nice! I sense some pessimism in Phillies land, and while understandable to a small degree, YOU STILL HAVE ROY HALLADAY, CLIFF LEE AND COLE HAMELS. Anyway, any of the top four teams can win this division. The Marlins may actually have the highest upside if everyone stays healthy, Ricky Nolasco's ERA matches his FIP and Carlos Zambrano actually pitches well. But with several injury-prone players, I'm a little more cautious. Same with the Braves; the good news is Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman should improve on 2011, but there are injury concerns in the rotation, shortstop is a question mark, third base could be a problem and the bullpen may again have to carry a big workload.
NL CENTRAL
Here's what worries me about the Cardinals: Lance Berkman, David Freese, Rafael Furcal, Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday have all battled various injuries in the past season or two. Adam Wainwright is back, but Chris Carpenter is out for an unknown period of time. Can they win the division? Of course. I actually think the team most likely to run away with the division is the Reds, if everything breaks right, especially in the rotation. But my safe pick is the Brewers. Or maybe they're not so safe; not many have jumped on the Brewers' bandwagon this year but I love the Zack Greinke-Yovani Gallardo duo. It's hard to project much for the Cubs, Pirates and Astros, although maybe the Pirates could challenge .500 if Erik Bedard and A.J. Burnett stay healthy and pitch well.
NL WEST
Even with regression from Ryan Vogelsong and uncertainty in the fifth spot, the big three of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner and a lineup that has to score more runs than 2011 makes the Giants slight favorites over the Diamondbacks. Plus ... I couldn't pick EVERY division winner to repeat. In fact, recent history tells us half of each season's playoff teams won't make it the next year. So maybe that opens the door for the Dodgers, Rockies or Padres in a surprise finish in the always unpredictable NL West.
PLAYER AWARDS
AL MVP: Evan Longoria
Since the wild-card era began in 1995, 29 of 34 MVPs played on playoff teams and 31 of 33 position players to win hit .300 (the exceptions being Jimmy Rollins in 2007 and Alex Rodriguez in 2003). Longoria has not .300, but he did hit .294 in 2010 so he has a .300 season in him. Could end up being a "Defense matters!" debate between him and Miguel Cabrera.
Sleeper: Shin-Soo Choo. If the Indians shock the world.
AL CY YOUNG: David Price
He finished second in the 2010 voting and I believe he's a better pitcher now -- higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate in 2011. Run support may be an issue.
Sleeper: C.J. Wilson. Had a 2.31 road ERA in 2011.
AL ROOKIE: Yu Darvish
I believe.
Sleeper: Addison Reed. Could end up as the White Sox closer and rookie closers have historically done well in the voting (Craig Kimbrel, Neftali Feliz, Andrew Bailey and Huston Street have won in recent years).
NL MVP: Ryan Braun
Joey Votto was my initial pick, but since I have the Brewers winning the division ahead of the Reds, I'll go with Braun.
Sleeper: Giancarlo Stanton. OK, not much a sleeper, but could have a monster RBI season hitting behind Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez.
NL CY YOUNG: Roy Halladay
No insulted intended to Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee or any of the other great NL starters.
Sleeper: Zack Greinke. Well, hard to call a guy who's won before a sleeper. Looks for his ERA to come close to his second-half from 2011 -- 2.59.
NL ROOKIE: Zack Cozart
The NL rookie crop isn't quite as exciting as the AL's, but the Reds have two strong candidates in Cozart and catcher Devin Mesoraco. But while Mesoraco will share time with Ryan Hanigan, Cozart should play every day at shortstop and put up decent numbers.
Sleeper: Trevor Bauer. If Josh Collmenter falters, Bauer may be up quickly for Arizona.
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.
And that's good. As Steve writes, baseball wouldn't be so great if we were always right.
What I did was project each team's runs scored and runs allowed and project their win-loss record from there. Of course, the runs scored and allowed totals have to add up to same number. Not every team can exceed it's over/under line. Overall, I project 21,055 runs scored, a 247-run increase over 2010 (there were 21,308 runs in 2010). Note, of course, that in reality every team doesn't match its projected runs scored/allowed wins total. Last season, for example, the Tigers and Diamondbacks exceeded their Pythagoren record by six wins.
So here are my surely-to-be-wrong predictions ...
AL EAST
I know, I know ... I couple weeks ago I declared the Red Sox the team to beat in the AL East. Since then Andrew Bailey has landed on the DL after thumb surgery and Josh Beckett has some sort of thumb injury as well. It doesn't sound serious, but those are two red flags. No matter how you slice it, the division should be a terrific three-way race. The Yankees and Rays have more rotation depth but I like Boston's lineup. And don't discount the Blue Jays. If Colby Rasmus rebounds, Adam Lind has a better season and Brett Lawrie lives up to expectations, this lineup could score 800-plus. It just needs the back of the rotation to produce and the Jays could be a sleeper contenders if one of the favorites falters.
AL CENTRAL
I went on record earlier as picking the Indians to win the AL Central, so I now apologize to all Cleveland fans as I change my mind. I just couldn't make the math work and Ubaldo Jimenez's spring struggles and state of mind are a huge concern. Still, I do believe the Tigers are vulnerable; look, if Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello take a big step forward the Tigers will run away with the division, no matter how grounders slip past Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. For now, I still those two as inconsistent 3-4 starters and I suspect that regression from Alex Avila and Jhonny Peralta may cancel out some of the offensive gains Fielder will provide. Some people like the Royals, but I don't see a .500-caliber rotation and I'm lukewarm about the offense once you get past Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon and Billy Butler. Even with some bounce-back from Adam Dunn and Alex Rios, the White Sox will struggle to score runs. Their rotation could be interesting, however. And the Twins ... well, they're just one season removed from 94 wins.
AL WEST
No surprise here: should be a great two-team race. The Rangers had a run differential 144 runs better than the Angels last year; that's a lot of ground to make up. Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson and perhaps Kendrys Morales will produce a large chunk of that and the Rangers may regress a little, but the Angels will need to find improved offense somewhere else (and we mean you, Vernon Wells). The A's were actually closer to the Angels in run differential a season ago than the Angels were to the Rangers, but this is still a lineup with Coco Crisp hitting third to start the season. The Mariners will score more runs, but that isn't saying much. Safeco Field will help the pitching staff look better than it is, but Mariners will be watching Double-A Jackson with nearly as much interest as the big league club.
NL EAST
So I was talking to a Phillies fan here in the office and told him I was picking them despite the Ryan Howard and Chase Utley injuries. His response: "We don't want you." Nice! I sense some pessimism in Phillies land, and while understandable to a small degree, YOU STILL HAVE ROY HALLADAY, CLIFF LEE AND COLE HAMELS. Anyway, any of the top four teams can win this division. The Marlins may actually have the highest upside if everyone stays healthy, Ricky Nolasco's ERA matches his FIP and Carlos Zambrano actually pitches well. But with several injury-prone players, I'm a little more cautious. Same with the Braves; the good news is Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman should improve on 2011, but there are injury concerns in the rotation, shortstop is a question mark, third base could be a problem and the bullpen may again have to carry a big workload.
NL CENTRAL
Here's what worries me about the Cardinals: Lance Berkman, David Freese, Rafael Furcal, Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday have all battled various injuries in the past season or two. Adam Wainwright is back, but Chris Carpenter is out for an unknown period of time. Can they win the division? Of course. I actually think the team most likely to run away with the division is the Reds, if everything breaks right, especially in the rotation. But my safe pick is the Brewers. Or maybe they're not so safe; not many have jumped on the Brewers' bandwagon this year but I love the Zack Greinke-Yovani Gallardo duo. It's hard to project much for the Cubs, Pirates and Astros, although maybe the Pirates could challenge .500 if Erik Bedard and A.J. Burnett stay healthy and pitch well.
NL WEST
Even with regression from Ryan Vogelsong and uncertainty in the fifth spot, the big three of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner and a lineup that has to score more runs than 2011 makes the Giants slight favorites over the Diamondbacks. Plus ... I couldn't pick EVERY division winner to repeat. In fact, recent history tells us half of each season's playoff teams won't make it the next year. So maybe that opens the door for the Dodgers, Rockies or Padres in a surprise finish in the always unpredictable NL West.
PLAYER AWARDS
AL MVP: Evan Longoria
Since the wild-card era began in 1995, 29 of 34 MVPs played on playoff teams and 31 of 33 position players to win hit .300 (the exceptions being Jimmy Rollins in 2007 and Alex Rodriguez in 2003). Longoria has not .300, but he did hit .294 in 2010 so he has a .300 season in him. Could end up being a "Defense matters!" debate between him and Miguel Cabrera.
Sleeper: Shin-Soo Choo. If the Indians shock the world.
AL CY YOUNG: David Price
He finished second in the 2010 voting and I believe he's a better pitcher now -- higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate in 2011. Run support may be an issue.
Sleeper: C.J. Wilson. Had a 2.31 road ERA in 2011.
AL ROOKIE: Yu Darvish
I believe.
Sleeper: Addison Reed. Could end up as the White Sox closer and rookie closers have historically done well in the voting (Craig Kimbrel, Neftali Feliz, Andrew Bailey and Huston Street have won in recent years).
NL MVP: Ryan Braun
Joey Votto was my initial pick, but since I have the Brewers winning the division ahead of the Reds, I'll go with Braun.
Sleeper: Giancarlo Stanton. OK, not much a sleeper, but could have a monster RBI season hitting behind Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez.
NL CY YOUNG: Roy Halladay
No insulted intended to Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee or any of the other great NL starters.
Sleeper: Zack Greinke. Well, hard to call a guy who's won before a sleeper. Looks for his ERA to come close to his second-half from 2011 -- 2.59.
NL ROOKIE: Zack Cozart
The NL rookie crop isn't quite as exciting as the AL's, but the Reds have two strong candidates in Cozart and catcher Devin Mesoraco. But while Mesoraco will share time with Ryan Hanigan, Cozart should play every day at shortstop and put up decent numbers.
Sleeper: Trevor Bauer. If Josh Collmenter falters, Bauer may be up quickly for Arizona.
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.
I can't wait for the season to get going. You can't wait. Last October was the best we've had in years, and the offseason only fueled our baseball fever. Spring training is mercifully over. Let the games begin. Here are 100 reasons I'm pumped for the next seven months.
1. Albert Pujols in Anaheim. They call him The Machine, but Pujols had a few rusty bolts in 2011. He hit under .300 for the first time, his walk rate was down, and his extra-base-hit percentage was down. After a slow start through May (.267, nine home runs), he did hit much better after returning from his fractured forearm. He moves to a tougher division and will have to face the Rangers, A's and Mariners 19 times each -- with cavernous parks in Oakland and Seattle -- rather than the Cubs, Pirates and Astros. The pressure is on. The spotlight is bright. But machines are immune to all that, right?
2. Jim Thome's pursuit of a World Series title. He'll turn 42 in August and will play some first base until Ryan Howard returns. That's a pretty good story in itself (he hasn't played on the field since appearing in one game at first in 2008), but he's played in nine postseasons and reached two World Series without winning it all.
3. Jamie Moyer is back in the majors at age 49 and can surpass Jack Quinn as the oldest pitcher to win a game. Moyer's arsenal these days: an 80 mph fastball, a 70 mph changeup, a 65 mph curveball, a 55 mph slowball, a 20 mph Bugs Bunny ball and an 8 mph retirement community ball that bends time.
4. Justin Verlander's encore performance. Verlander threw 3,941 pitches in the regular season, the most since Livan Hernandez's 4,007 in 2005. Verlander added 360 more in the postseason. It's not necessarily a big deal -- Verlander's 2009 total is the third-highest since 2005 -- but you do wonder whether Jim Leyland will back off a little.
5. Roy Halladay's paintbrush.
6. Yu Darvish.
7. Yu Darvish's hair. Straight from Supercuts.
8. Adam Wainwright's return to the Cardinals' rotation. He was third in the 2009 NL Cy Young vote and second in 2010. He looked good this spring, pitching 18 2/3 innings and allowing just 11 hits. The strikeout rate wasn't great -- just nine K's -- but signs are positive a year after Tommy John surgery.
9. A full season of Stephen Strasburg, who was electric in his own return in September from TJ surgery in September 2010 -- his fastball averaged 95.8 mph, below the 97.3 he averaged in 2010 but still with enough velocity that it would have ranked No. 1 among starting pitchers. The big question for his season: How much the Nationals will limit his innings?
10. Jose Canseco's tweets.
11. Clayton Kershaw's slider. His fastball isn't too shabby, either. By the way, here's what Kershaw does in the offseason to stay in shape and get ready for the season.
12. Verlander, Halladay, Kershaw: three of the amazing generation of pitchers we get to enjoy. Maybe Darvish and Strasburg will join them. In 2011, 14 pitchers pitched at least 200 innings with an ERA of 3.00 or less. The last time we had even 10 such pitchers in one season was 1997, with 11. The last season with more than 14 was 1992, with 20. Yes, steroids are a small part of that. A small part. The best pitchers today are throwing harder and with meaner breaking stuff than we've ever seen. Guys like Kershaw and Halladay are relentless in their workout routines. It's not a lot of fun to be a hitter these days.
13. Well, Jose Bautista has a lot of fun.
14. A new generation of young hitters like Giancarlo Stanton, Eric Hosmer, Brett Lawrie, Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Starlin Castro and Jesus Montero. All will play their age-22 seasons in 2012.
15. Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez.
16. Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.
17. Will Cabrera win his first MVP award? He's finished fifth in the voting three times, fourth once and second once. Two things that could prevent him from winning:
A. Austin Jackson's on-base percentage. Cabrera hit .388 with runners in scoring position in 2011 but drove in "just" 105 runs.
B. Fielder. Batting behind Cabrera and his .400-plus OBP will give Fielder more RBI opportunities. If he ends up driving in 15 to 20 more runs than Cabrera, they could split votes.
Five other all-time greats who have never won an MVP award: Derek Jeter, Eddie Murray, Mike Piazza, Al Kaline, Manny Ramirez.
18. Cabrera playing third base. With Fielder at first base, the Tigers could have the worst first baseman and worst third baseman in baseball. (And, please, don't defend Fielder's defensive prowess at first base. He's better than Adam Dunn, I suppose ... but Dunn is a DH.)
19. Defensive runs saved!
Your leaders by position in 2011:
C -- Matt Wieters
1B -- Adrian Gonzalez
2B -- Ben Zobrist
3B -- Evan Longoria
SS -- Brendan Ryan
LF -- Brett Gardner
CF -- Austin Jackson
RF -- Jason Heyward
20. The Sandman.
21. The fans in Milwaukee. The Brewers drew a franchise-record 3.071 million fans in 2011. Depressed over losing Fielder? Hardly. They'll surpass that in 2012.
1. Albert Pujols in Anaheim. They call him The Machine, but Pujols had a few rusty bolts in 2011. He hit under .300 for the first time, his walk rate was down, and his extra-base-hit percentage was down. After a slow start through May (.267, nine home runs), he did hit much better after returning from his fractured forearm. He moves to a tougher division and will have to face the Rangers, A's and Mariners 19 times each -- with cavernous parks in Oakland and Seattle -- rather than the Cubs, Pirates and Astros. The pressure is on. The spotlight is bright. But machines are immune to all that, right?
2. Jim Thome's pursuit of a World Series title. He'll turn 42 in August and will play some first base until Ryan Howard returns. That's a pretty good story in itself (he hasn't played on the field since appearing in one game at first in 2008), but he's played in nine postseasons and reached two World Series without winning it all.
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Marcio Jose SanchezAge is just a number for Jamie Moyer.
AP Photo/Marcio Jose SanchezAge is just a number for Jamie Moyer.4. Justin Verlander's encore performance. Verlander threw 3,941 pitches in the regular season, the most since Livan Hernandez's 4,007 in 2005. Verlander added 360 more in the postseason. It's not necessarily a big deal -- Verlander's 2009 total is the third-highest since 2005 -- but you do wonder whether Jim Leyland will back off a little.
5. Roy Halladay's paintbrush.
6. Yu Darvish.
7. Yu Darvish's hair. Straight from Supercuts.
8. Adam Wainwright's return to the Cardinals' rotation. He was third in the 2009 NL Cy Young vote and second in 2010. He looked good this spring, pitching 18 2/3 innings and allowing just 11 hits. The strikeout rate wasn't great -- just nine K's -- but signs are positive a year after Tommy John surgery.
9. A full season of Stephen Strasburg, who was electric in his own return in September from TJ surgery in September 2010 -- his fastball averaged 95.8 mph, below the 97.3 he averaged in 2010 but still with enough velocity that it would have ranked No. 1 among starting pitchers. The big question for his season: How much the Nationals will limit his innings?
10. Jose Canseco's tweets.
11. Clayton Kershaw's slider. His fastball isn't too shabby, either. By the way, here's what Kershaw does in the offseason to stay in shape and get ready for the season.
12. Verlander, Halladay, Kershaw: three of the amazing generation of pitchers we get to enjoy. Maybe Darvish and Strasburg will join them. In 2011, 14 pitchers pitched at least 200 innings with an ERA of 3.00 or less. The last time we had even 10 such pitchers in one season was 1997, with 11. The last season with more than 14 was 1992, with 20. Yes, steroids are a small part of that. A small part. The best pitchers today are throwing harder and with meaner breaking stuff than we've ever seen. Guys like Kershaw and Halladay are relentless in their workout routines. It's not a lot of fun to be a hitter these days.
13. Well, Jose Bautista has a lot of fun.
14. A new generation of young hitters like Giancarlo Stanton, Eric Hosmer, Brett Lawrie, Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Starlin Castro and Jesus Montero. All will play their age-22 seasons in 2012.
15. Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez.
16. Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.
[+] Enlarge
Ronald C. Modra/Sports Imagery/Getty ImagesPrince Fielder adds even more punch to the Detroit Tigers' lineup.
Ronald C. Modra/Sports Imagery/Getty ImagesPrince Fielder adds even more punch to the Detroit Tigers' lineup.A. Austin Jackson's on-base percentage. Cabrera hit .388 with runners in scoring position in 2011 but drove in "just" 105 runs.
B. Fielder. Batting behind Cabrera and his .400-plus OBP will give Fielder more RBI opportunities. If he ends up driving in 15 to 20 more runs than Cabrera, they could split votes.
Five other all-time greats who have never won an MVP award: Derek Jeter, Eddie Murray, Mike Piazza, Al Kaline, Manny Ramirez.
18. Cabrera playing third base. With Fielder at first base, the Tigers could have the worst first baseman and worst third baseman in baseball. (And, please, don't defend Fielder's defensive prowess at first base. He's better than Adam Dunn, I suppose ... but Dunn is a DH.)
19. Defensive runs saved!
Your leaders by position in 2011:
C -- Matt Wieters
1B -- Adrian Gonzalez
2B -- Ben Zobrist
3B -- Evan Longoria
SS -- Brendan Ryan
LF -- Brett Gardner
CF -- Austin Jackson
RF -- Jason Heyward
20. The Sandman.
21. The fans in Milwaukee. The Brewers drew a franchise-record 3.071 million fans in 2011. Depressed over losing Fielder? Hardly. They'll surpass that in 2012.
John Sommers II/Getty ImagesJoey Votto was the 2010 NL MVP and finished sixth in the voting in 2011.Points on a 14-9-8-7-6 basis.
Links: Replacing Prince, Nats' offense, more
March, 21, 2012
Mar 21
5:09
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
- ESPN Insider Dan Szymborski asks: Is there another Jose Bautista
lingering near the bottom of the ESPN 500 list? Dan throws out some interesting names, including Travis Snider and Pedro Alvarez, although both of them were former first-round picks and one-time top prospects. Of course, what makes any Bautista comparison difficult is that he hasn't just had a couple of nice seasons out of nowhere; he's had two seasons that made him one of the best players in baseball. There may be a more systematic way of doing this: Check players who were (A) never top prospects; (B) had some time in the majors before blossoming into an MVP candidate. I have to think Bautista is fairly unique in this regard. Worth looking at during some down time. - Tristan Cockcroft has a list of players he's not excited about. Tristan is writing for a fantasy baseball audience, but I like his support evidence. Names such as Adam Wainwright and Dee Gordon will provide some debate.
- Eric Karabell has updated his fantasy top 100. He's sticking with Ryan Braun at No. 1.

- One more link from our fantasy department: AJ Mass looks at the Rays and whether the hype surrounding Matt Moore is justified.
- Mets Today has a roundup of all the fallout from the court decision regarding the Mets.
- Dodger Thoughts author Jon Weisman has a piece on ESPNLosAngeles.com on the Clayton Kershaw-Tim Lincecum rivalry.
- How do the Brewers replace Prince Fielder? In Part 1 of a 2012 preview, Disciples of Uecker examines whether Aramis Ramirez will come close to Fielder's 2011 production.
- Harper Gordek is worried about a Nationals lineup that may open up with Rick Ankiel hitting fifth. Can the pitching staff prevent enough runs to make the Nationals contenders?
- Michael Baumann on Chase Utley, Freddy Galvis and panic (or lack of it) in Philly.
- Brenden Lowery breaks down Carlos Santana and his approach from both sides of the plate in 2011. With heat maps!
- Craig Brown examines the Royals trade in which they acquired catcher Humberto Quintero to fill in for the injured Salvador Perez and outfielder Jason Bourgeois. If the word "train wreck" is used as descriptive medicine, it may not be a cure.
- Here's what the Red Sox's 25-man roster may look like.
- One thing the Twins have: Guys who can play center field. With Denard Span, Ben Revere, Joe Benson and prospect Aaron Hicks, should the Twins consider dealing from their surplus?
- Chris Quick with an interesting study on Giants infielder Emmanuel Burriss: With his lack of power what are the odds he can be of some value at the plate?
- Will first base be a problem for the Cardinals?
- Ramon Santiago for Tigers MVP!
- Finally, a fun list of the top 10 final seasons, in honor of Will Clark's 2000.
A bit of sarcasm was on display for Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast, as Keith Law and I had a little fun talking about the great game of baseball!
1. KLaw discusses what he saw from Texas Rangers right-hander Neftali Feliz on Tuesday. Feliz lasted three innings before shoulder soreness forced his exit.
2. Meanwhile, I was able to observe Boston Red Sox right-hander Daniel Bard trying to avoid walks on Tuesday. Another converted reliever, KLaw shares thoughts on how this situation will end up.
3. Ryan Braun isn’t hitting this spring, and obviously the rumor mongers can’t get enough. Of course, Keith and I tell you the truth about Braun.
4. Big trade for the Royals! Big trade! OK, so acquiring Humberto Quintero and Jason Bourgeois doesn’t guarantee the pennant, but we discuss their impact, and the Royals' closing situation.
5. Emails and tweets galore! Among the topics are Mike Matheny’s living arrangements, the awful Houston Astros, sixth starters and Dusty versus Walt in Cincy.
So download and listen to Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast, which includes a funny rant by Mr. Law. Don’t miss it.
1. KLaw discusses what he saw from Texas Rangers right-hander Neftali Feliz on Tuesday. Feliz lasted three innings before shoulder soreness forced his exit.
2. Meanwhile, I was able to observe Boston Red Sox right-hander Daniel Bard trying to avoid walks on Tuesday. Another converted reliever, KLaw shares thoughts on how this situation will end up.
3. Ryan Braun isn’t hitting this spring, and obviously the rumor mongers can’t get enough. Of course, Keith and I tell you the truth about Braun.
4. Big trade for the Royals! Big trade! OK, so acquiring Humberto Quintero and Jason Bourgeois doesn’t guarantee the pennant, but we discuss their impact, and the Royals' closing situation.
5. Emails and tweets galore! Among the topics are Mike Matheny’s living arrangements, the awful Houston Astros, sixth starters and Dusty versus Walt in Cincy.
So download and listen to Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast, which includes a funny rant by Mr. Law. Don’t miss it.
Joey Votto is your best bet for NL MVP
March, 21, 2012
Mar 21
12:38
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Since the wild-card era began in 1995, there have been 34 MVPs -- 29 of them played on playoff teams, the exceptions being Albert Pujols in 2008, Ryan Howard in 2006, Barry Bonds in 2004 and 2001, Alex Rodriguez in 2003 and Larry Walker in 1997. Not including Justin Verlander, 31 of the 33 MVPs hit .300, the exceptions being Jimmy Rollins in 2007 (.296) and Rodriguez in 2003 (.298).
So that basically leaves two criteria for establishing MVP candidacy:
1. Play for a playoff team.
2. Hit .300.
Why didn't Matt Kemp win the NL MVP Award in 2011? The Dodgers didn't make the playoffs. Why didn't Curtis Granderson win the AL MVP Award? He didn't hit .300.
Those who contribute to ESPN's baseball coverage were just asked to make our 2012 predictions, including award winners. My first thought when it came to picking the NL MVP: Giancarlo Stanton. After hitting 34 home runs as a 21-year-old, he could explode. With Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez in front of him and a new potentially more hitter-friendly park, 40 to 45 home runs with 120-plus RBIs isn't out of the question.
Then I realized: Stanton probably isn't going to hit .300, not after hitting .262 a season ago. With 166 strikeouts, he would likely have to cut way down on the whiffs to come closer to .300. It could happen, but it isn't likely to happen in 2012. Plus, the Marlins aren't a lock for the postseason.
So who does that leave? Let's get back to our original theory.
Here's the list of NL position players who hit .300 each of the past two seasons: Joey Votto, Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Starlin Castro. That's it. Matt Holliday and Carlos Gonzalez hit over .300 in 2010, but were at .296 and .295, respectively, in 2011.
Now, that's not the entire list of MVP candidates, of course. You have Kemp and Justin Upton, both popular picks. Upton has the advantage on playing for a team more likely to make the playoffs. And while Upton hasn't hit .300 either of the past two seasons, he did hit .300 in 2009. Tulowitzki and Gonzalez are strong choices, but I'm not high on the Rockies' playoff chances. Ramirez was once an MVP candidate. Ryan Zimmerman hit .307 in 2010 and could be on a playoff contender.
But I think we clearly have three top choices: Votto, Braun and Upton. I'm not saying those are the three best players in the National League. I'm saying those are the three guys most likely to win the MVP Award. Votto and Braun are better candidates to hit .300, so that leaves Upton No. 3 on my list. So we have the last two NL MVP winners. Braun has the advantage that -- minus Prince Fielder -- if the Brewers do make the playoffs he'll get credit for "carrying the team" and "overcoming adversity." On the other hand, Votto will have to carry a lineup with two rookies and not a lot of support outside of Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips.
Most people seem to believe the Reds have a better chance of making the playoffs. If that's the case, the edge goes to Votto. So my preseason NL MVP ballot would go like this:
1. Joey Votto
2. Ryan Braun
3. Justin Upton
4. Matt Kemp
5. Troy Tulowitzki
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.
Links: Wild card, Bobby V, pitching in Coors
March, 1, 2012
Mar 1
12:00
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
- Sports Illustrated's Joe Sheehan responds to the likelihood that baseball will be adding a second wild-card team. Joe perfectly sums up the problems I also have with the second wild card. In fact, I would argue the problems are so obvious, and the benefits so minor, that baseball will eventually eliminate the second wild card after a few years (or after Bud Selig retires).
- Here's a report from ESPNBoston that says Red Sox players are iffy on the extra wild card. The quotes from the players exactly echo Joe's points.
- Brandon Cloud has an in-depth look at pitching in Coors Field and points to an interesting piece of data I wasn't aware of: fastballs are more affected at Coors than breaking balls. Why? One reason is that all pitches travel faster at Coors; this means gravity has less time to affect the movement of the pitch (Ubaldo Jimenez had much more movement on his two-seam and four-seam fastballs on the road). Movement on breaking balls is affected as well, but not as much, in part because off-speed pitches are moving slower than fastballs. What does it mean as to what kind of pitchers the Rockies should want? Check out Brandon's piece.
- Wally Matthews of ESPNNewYork writes about Bobby Valentine, who apparently has the Bombers on his brain.
- Joey Matschulat has a nice rundown of the Jairo Beras situation with the Rangers. Beras is a Dominican teenager the Rangers just signed for $4.5 million, but there is a dispute over his age and thus his eligibility to be signed before July 2. MLB has launched an investigation.
- Charlie Manuel says the Phillies need to bunt more. Crashburn Alley's Bill Baer has a response.
- This made me chuckle: Somehow, MLB Network rated Brian McCann the seventh-best catcher in baseball. As Ben Duronio suggests, that's pretty low for a catcher who compares favorably to two guys named Gary Carter and Mike Piazza. There's no way to measure this, of course, but if McCann isn't the most underrated player in baseball, he has to be near the top of the list.
- Speaking of catchers, Chip Buck of Fire Brand sends Jason Varitek off into retirement.
- Tony Jackson of ESPNLA has a piece on Chad Billingsley, who is making some adjustments to his mechanics after a disappointing 2011.
- Harper Gordek has his picks to SOAR and CRASH with the Nationals this year. He likes Wilson Ramos but isn't a believer in Edwin Jackson.
- Charles Piece of Grantland has an excellent essay in defense of Ryan Braun. Maybe you disagree with Pierce's stance that Braun was a victim or that baseball ultimately played the role of an authoritarian SOB. But it's hard to deny this paragraph: "Can someone seriously argue that it is ethical to take a drug to make a performance possible, but unethical to take a drug that makes that performance better? Isn't making a performance possible at all the ultimate performance enhancement? If there had been a drug that would have given us five more seasons of Sandy Koufax at the top of his game, how would that have been a bad thing, everything else being equal? Sports are rife with drugs. Without drugs of one sort or another, the NFL season would never begin, and the baseball season would end sometime in June owing to a lack of participating teams."
Podcast: Braun, Big Papi, Callaspo/Trumbo
February, 28, 2012
Feb 28
4:05
PM ET
By
Eric Karabell | ESPN.com
The final Baseball Today podcast
of February was a winning one as Mark Simon and me discussed myriad names and topics, including ...
1. Do you feel differently about Ryan Braun after the strange events of last week? Mark and I are similarly dissatisfied and explain why.
2. Boston Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek has apparently had enough, and we discuss his Hall of Fame case, such as it is. We also deviate on a few of his teammates, and hit a nerve on David Ortiz.
3. The Missouri catchers get a lot richer after signing contract extensions, but were the Cardinals and Royals wise to make these moves with Yadier Molina and Salvador Perez?
4. In our Simon Says segment, we play the "Superstar or Shlabotnick" game (no, really, we did!) and discuss the recent ESPN The Magazine cover story about smart Oakland Athletics pitcher Brandon McCarthy.
5. Emails pose questions about last week’s memorable podcast, other books to recommend (including one from me!), the Angels third-base situation with Alberto Callaspo/Mark Trumbo and more!
So download and listen to Tuesday’s fine edition of the Baseball Today podcast! It’s the wise thing to do!
1. Do you feel differently about Ryan Braun after the strange events of last week? Mark and I are similarly dissatisfied and explain why.
2. Boston Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek has apparently had enough, and we discuss his Hall of Fame case, such as it is. We also deviate on a few of his teammates, and hit a nerve on David Ortiz.
3. The Missouri catchers get a lot richer after signing contract extensions, but were the Cardinals and Royals wise to make these moves with Yadier Molina and Salvador Perez?
4. In our Simon Says segment, we play the "Superstar or Shlabotnick" game (no, really, we did!) and discuss the recent ESPN The Magazine cover story about smart Oakland Athletics pitcher Brandon McCarthy.
5. Emails pose questions about last week’s memorable podcast, other books to recommend (including one from me!), the Angels third-base situation with Alberto Callaspo/Mark Trumbo and more!
So download and listen to Tuesday’s fine edition of the Baseball Today podcast! It’s the wise thing to do!





