ESPN MLB

Last year, You Can't Predict Baseball came up with bold predictions for the year. We had a lot of fun coming up with them, and then laughing at how hilariously wrong they were at the end of the year. This year, we're bringing these predictions to SweetSpot, along with explanations for some of them. Keep in mind, these predictions are supposed to be bold, but not insane -- even we know the Orioles aren't going to the playoffs in 2012.

Los Angeles Angels: Kendrys Morales stays healthy all year.

Houston Astros: Bud Norris is top five in K/9 in the NL. We figured something good had to happen to the Astros, right? Norris actually has a pretty nice career K/9.

Oakland Athletics: Yoenis Cespedes is their starting center fielder by Memorial Day.

Toronto Blue Jays: Brandon Morrow makes the jump to elite starting pitcher. He's struck out more than 10 batters per 9 innings two years running, though his ERAs have remained ugly. We think this is the year his results finally match the stuff, especially considering his declining walk rate.

Atlanta Braves: Julio Teheran has more wins than Tim Hudson.

Milwaukee Brewers: Rickie Weeks leads the team in home runs. He was fourth on the team last year, with 20. In front of him were Corey Hart with 26, Ryan Braun with 33, and Prince Fielder with 38. Fielder is gone, and for this prediction we'll assume Braun will miss a third of the year due to a suspension. It's not too bold to think Weeks could pass Hart in 2012.

St. Louis Cardinals: Carlos Beltran outproduces Albert Pujols from last year. Albert Pujols was great last year, but not quite best-player-of-his-generation Albert Pujols. If healthy, it's not absurd to think of Beltran outproducing Pujols' 5.1 WAR in 2011.

Chicago Cubs: Matt Garza isn't their best pitcher. It'll be Ryan Dempster, who had great peripherals but bad results last year.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Aaron Hill will be good again. He was great with them in limited time, and Arizona's park is quite hitter-friendly.

Los Angeles Dodgers: James Loney will be a top-three first baseman in the National League. Many thanks to Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness for somewhat alerting us to this one. We just decided to take it semi-absurdly far.

San Francisco Giants: Madison Bumgarner is their best pitcher. In terms of ERA, he already wasn't very far behind Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, and his K/BB ratio eclipsed theirs by quite a bit.

Cleveland Indians: They'll have the best pitching in the American League Central. We're banking on Ubaldo Jimenez, making a major comeback to something closer to what he was in 2010, and the rest of the staff displaying the good that they did in 2011. We're also counting on the Tigers' starters not being very impressive behind Justin Verlander, which is bold but not quite insane, and the pitching of the White Sox, Twins and Royals not being able to keep up with Cleveland's.

Seattle Mariners: Jesus Montero catches 100-plus games. The Mariners probably aren't going to compete, so why not try and play him where he'll accrue the most value?

Miami Marlins: Despite all their new acquisitions and the hype, they still finish fourth in the NL East. When you think about it, this one isn't so crazy. If Josh Johnson isn't healthy and maybe even if he is their pitching still trails that of Philadelphia, Washington, and Atlanta; even with Heath Bell, we don't think their bullpen is as good, either. Their offense might be better than some of those teams', but the Marlins were quite a bit below league average offensively last year and we're not sure how much Jose Reyes is going to make up for that.

New York Mets: Mike Pelfrey is the worst starter in the NL. Pelfrey's been pretty terrible two of the past three years, and now they're moving the fences in at Citi Field. He was far better in his huge home stadium, but we're guessing with the moved-in walls he'll be significantly worse at Citi. Here at YCPB, we actually don't think the Mets are going to be quite as dire as many are saying, even if they do come in last place in the NL East - but Pelfrey won't be a bright spot.

Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg has a 17-strikeout game.

Baltimore Orioles: Matt Wieters is the best catcher in the AL. A lot of people are so obsessed with Wieters not matching the hype that they didn't notice he became a plus offensive performer last year, to go along with very good defense. His taking the next step isn't that bold as predictions go, especially if Joe Mauer has to move off catcher.

San Diego Padres: Luke Gregerson is a top-three closer in the NL.

Philadelphia Phillies: Cole Hamels is their best starter. And this isn't meant to be a slight to Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee, but considering their ages and the fact that Hamels is pretty darn good himself, plus a possible boost from a contract year...

Pittsburgh Pirates: Charlie Morton is their All-Star.

Texas Rangers: Yu Darvish isn't their best starter -- but he's still good. And we think he'll be pretty good, we just think Derek Holland will become more consistently good, or Matt Harrison will put up numbers like his 2011.

Tampa Bay Rays: James Shields will have no complete games. Predicting someone to have no complete games might not seem bold, but it is when it's a guy who was known as "Complete Game James" last season. Shields did have 11 complete games in 2011, an almost unheard-of number these days, but he had no complete games in 2009 or 2010.

Boston Red Sox: No one hits 30 home runs. This might seem crazy when you consider their great offensive numbers last year, but only one player on their team hit 30 home runs and it was Jacoby Ellsbury with 32.

Cincinnati Reds: Brandon Phillips is the best second baseman in the NL.

Colorado Rockies: Jamie Moyer will have the best HR/9 on the staff.

Kansas City Royals: They reach .500. While their pitching won't be great, their offense will take a big step forward this year. Combined with the rest of their division being the Tigers and some dumpster fires, it's not that difficult to see it happening.

Detroit Tigers: They score fewer runs than they did in 2011. Yes, that’s even with Fielder. It's not improbable that Jhonny Peralta, Alex Avila and Delmon Young regress quite a bit from their numbers with Detroit last year, and that Prince Fielder's production "only" makes up for the offensive loss of Victor Martinez in 2012. They'll still have a very good offense, though.

Minnesota Twins: Joe Mauer hits 15 home runs.

Chicago White Sox: Robin Ventura gets ejected more times than Ozzie Guillen. Look at the state of the White Sox. We'd get ejected too.

New York Yankees: Hiroki Kuroda leads the team in ERA.

You Can't Predict Baseball is an affiliate of the SweetSpot network.

I don’t actually remember the first baseball game I attended, but in the spring of 1973 my father assures me we went to see a local high school phenom named Floyd Bannister, who would go 15-0 with an 0.00 ERA and three years later become the first pick in the draft by the Astros.

The first major league game I saw in person was Mariners versus Red Sox, Kingdome, May 1977. Must have been backpack night or tote bag night because the attendance totaled more than 52,000, and back then the Mariners drew that many fans only on Opening Day or for promotional giveaways. Jim Rice and Carlton Fisk hit home runs and, of course, the Mariners lost.

While I suffered through endless defeats, I witnessed plenty of exciting moments, like Ruppert Jones hitting an inside-the-park home run against the Yankees that first season that propelled everybody into a “Rupe! Rupe! Rupe!” chant at the top of our lungs. Or bat night in 1981, when Tom Paciorek beat the Yankees for the second night in a row with a ninth-inning home run and we started banging our bats against the metal bleachers in a deafening celebration. I was there with my father when Gaylord Perry won his 300th game and later that season when Perry was ejected for the only time in his career for throwing a spitball (Boston’s Rick Miller swung and missed a pitch by about two feet and charged the mound, leading to an impressive melee).

I’ve seen Mark Langston two-hit the Tigers, compelling Sparky Anderson to call him the best young left-hander he’d seen since Sandy Koufax. I loved Langston and his high leg kick, but the Mariners couldn’t afford him and he was later traded for a tall, gangly rookie named Randy Johnson, and I was there in the upper deck when Johnson beat the Angels (and Langston) in the 1995 tiebreaker to put the Mariners into the playoffs for the first time in franchise history.

I’ve sat in primo box seats at Fenway Park (thanks, Rob), watching Pedro Martinez strike out 17 Devil Rays … and lose 1-0 because Steve Trachsel pitched a three-hit shutout. I’ve seen Clemens throw a bat at Piazza, squinting from the upper deck at Yankee Stadium, not sure I saw what I thought I saw. I’ve seen Tino Martinez and Scott Brosius hit bottom-of-the-ninth homers to tie World Series games, and I definitely couldn’t believe what I saw.

I’m just one fan, with my own chamber of baseball memories. You have your own, but we all keep going to the ballpark or watching on television or checking updates on our phones for the same reasons: We still love the games. We want to know who wins, who loses, hope for a game-winning home run or a young left-hander who throws 95 and makes us believe he’s the next Koufax.

So with the 2011 season soon upon us, I can’t wait for the games to begin, to see more memories formed.

To see what Buster Posey and the Giants will do for an encore.

To see whether Jason Heyward will explode in his sophomore campaign.

To see Carl Crawford going first to home on an Adrian Gonzalez double off the Monster.

To see if the Rays can again shock the baseball world and win the AL East for the third time in four seasons.

To see Cardinals fans give Albert Pujols a five-minute standing ovation the first time he steps to the plate.

To see Joey Votto deliver more big hits for Reds. (Note: I have a man crush on Joey Votto.)

To see Troy Tulowitzki range deep in the hole and rob a batter of a sure single. And then blast a 425-foot home run later in the inning.

To see Joe Mauer spray line drives all over the field.

To see Justin Verlander and Josh Johnson blow away hitters.

To see the artistry of Roy Halladay.

To see Yankees fans panic if Derek Jeter starts the season 1-for-14.

I can’t wait to see the late game on Opening Day: Tim Lincecum versus Clayton Kershaw, the little righty with the funky motion and two Cy Young Awards versus the big lefty who could win one this season.

If our memories of games are a tangled web of neurons, well, that’s kind of how baseball works, too. Langston was drafted in the second round with a pick acquired from the Rangers after they signed Bill Stein as a free agent. The Mariners picked Stein in the expansion draft from the White Sox, who had acquired him for Jerry DaVanon, who had been traded for Roger Repoz, who was acquired for Jack Sanford, who came up on the unlucky end of a 1-0 loss for the Giants in Game 7 of the 1962 World Series. The Giants didn’t win a World Series in San Francisco until 2010, led by their ace Lincecum, who grew up in the suburbs of Seattle -- maybe the first game he ever saw featured Mark Langston -- using a pitching motion his father taught him, a motion modeled on the delivery of Sandy Koufax.

The SweetSpot blog will be here all season, writing about and discussing and analyzing the web that is a baseball season. Join myself and other contributors as we discuss the news, have some fun and give you a chance to interact. Mostly, we’ll be watching a lot of games, as the moments of 2011 unveil themselves.

I can’t wait. How many hours until the first pitch?

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.

The Mariners already declined their $5 million option on Jose Lopez for next season. Now it seems they're going to non-tender him, too, essentially making him a free agent.

Prior to this latest news, Geoff Baker detailed the Mariners' thinking about Lopez ...

You can see why the M's would opt to give Lopez one more crack after that, hoping he could produce such numbers over an entire year, especially coming off a 25-homer season in 2009. His salary for 2010, coming in at $2.75 million, wasn't exactly prohibitive. The Mariners also used that season to test Lopez out as a third baseman and he didn't look too shabby, though the play of shortstops Jack and Josh Wilson helped cover a lot of ground to Lopez's left. It wasn't an accident. The defense was positioned to minimize Lopez's flaws.

Even so, it became largely irrelevant. The bottom fell out on Lopez's offense in 2010 and that has so far made him untradeable. The Mariners declined to pick up his $5 million option for 2011 (an extra $500,000 added to that pile once he accumulated 500 plate appearances last season), meaning he is now arbitration eligible.

--snip--

Some have suggested the M's could offer Lopez arbitration and then try to trade him.

That is true. But it seems like too much of a risk for too little reward potential.

It's not like the M's can offer Lopez ten bucks in arbitration, then pawn him off. The system doesn't work that way. You can't offer an arbitration eligible player anything more than a 20 percent pay cut under the current collective bargaining agreement.

That means the minimum Lopez would be offered is a $2.2 million salary.

And he could counter that with a claim for, say, $3 million. Or even $4 million. And whatever the arbitrator decides, that's what he'd get. There is no middle ground. Arbitration is a funny thing and teams never really know how it's going to work out. Pay cuts are not unheard of, but nor are they common. You'd think a player who performed as poorly as Lopez would be in-line for a cut. But you just never know. His side could argue that he was bounced around the lineup, into a cleanup role he was ill-suited for and moved to a new position where modern stats suggest he was one of the best defensive third basemen in the game.

So, would you roll the dice on that?

Well, yeah. I probably would.

In 2008 and '09, Lopez was worth roughly $10 million ... in each season. Granted, those two seasons were sandwiched by 2007 and 2010, in which he was worth very little. If he's physically capable, though, wouldn't we expect him to be worth at least $5 million in 2011?

You can't really blame the Mariners for letting Lopez go. They're coming off a terrible season and Lopez didn't help. They've watched him, over the last two seasons, draw the grand total of 47 walks and reach base precisely 28.7 percent of the time. They're probably just tired of watching him. It's only natural.

Lopez will bounce back, though, won't he? His contact rate and his line-drive percentage and his ground-ball percentage and all the rest of them were right in line with the rest of his career. Well, almost all the rest of them. His home runs per fly ball percentage was down significantly from the previous two seasons. Was he weaker in 2010? Or just unluckier?

I don't know. I suspect that Lopez can be had this winter for a lot less than $5 million. He won't be a star, and probably won't be the comeback player of the year or anything. But he could be a solid pickup for a team that's desperate for a cheap third baseman who can't really get on base or a cheap second baseman who can't really play second base.

Well, this was a real kick in the pants:

In the decades since the Mariners inaugural 1977 season, the team had hundreds of players, 17 managers, multiple owners.

But there was only one Dave Niehaus.


[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Mike Groll Hall of Fame broadcaster Dave Niehaus, who called Mariners' games from their first season through this year, has died. He was 75.
The Mariners broadcaster since the beginning and the only original employee of the organization who remained, Niehaus died Wednesday of a heart attack at his suburban Bellevue home. He was 75.

"From now on, there will be just two eras of Mariner baseball," Seattle Mayor Mike McGinn said, "the Dave Niehaus era and everything else."

There's much, much more. I'll be posting other things, here and there, written by people who knew Niehaus much better than I did, people who followed the Mariners for many more years than I did.

Here's the Dave Niehaus I knew, though.

We were not friends, Dave and I. In 15 years, we probably saw each other five or six times. Funny thing, though ... When we did see each other, he always made me feel like we were friends, like he couldn't be more thrilled to see me.

The first time, I think, was during the 2000 season. I was living in Boston, and producer Kevin Cremin -- who's been working with Niehaus for nearly 30 years -- invited me to visit the booth at Fenway before a Red Sox-Mariners game. I'd been in Seattle some weeks before, and listening to the radio when Niehaus called a game-winning home run. It might have been one of Niehaus's beloved "grand salamis" (or it might not have been). Anyway, I mentioned to Niehaus that I'd enjoyed his call, and within a few seconds Cremin had the homer cued up, and Niehaus was offering me his headphones so I could hear it again.

I don't believe Niehaus took any real pleasure in my compliment, or hearing his own voice. I think he took pleasure (again) in that great moment for his Mariners, and he took pleasure in sharing it with someone else who loves the game so deeply.

Since then, I've visited the booth at Safeco Field occasionally, maybe every two or three years. In the Big Baseball World, I'm a nothing and Dave Niehaus is an Institution. Frankly, every time I walked into the booth and saw him, I halfway assumed he would have completely forgotten me. How many people must Niehaus have met over the years? How many other broadcasters and writers and glad-handers and just plain baseball fans have wanted their little moments with the man who had seen nearly every game in Mariners history?

And every time I stepped into his office, Dave Niehaus seemed genuinely glad to give me a few of his precious moments, happy to invite me to sit down next to him and talk about baseball or his trip to Cooperstown or whatever was ailing his Mariners.

I wish I had just a few more of those moments. I didn't visit the booth in 2010. I didn't want to impose. And I didn't imagine, for even a second, that I would never have another chance. I sort of thought Dave Niehaus would live forever.

Tonight I'm feeling sorry for myself. I'm feeling sorry for his family. And I'm feeling sorry for the many thousands of Pacific Northwest baseball fans who have spent huge and hugely important chunks of their lives with Dave Niehaus. All of us will go on next spring, because that's what we do. It's just not yet apparent how, exactly.

My friend Bill writes:

By the way, you've got to love the Mariners' story. The wussy way out is to say, "No one could have seen this coming!" 513 runs and a 79 OPS+. That's like a team of Bud Harrelsons.And better yet, there is really little hope in the near future. They have little money to spend. They have a few hitting prospects, but none of them are going to be star hitters for a few years if ever. Their pitching really isn't that good either other than Felix. With Felix and Ichiro, this would be the 1960s Mets minus the funny stories.

To which our friend Hank responds:

Yeah, we knew they'd rank in the bottom third or quartile of the AL in run scoring -- but 513 runs is out at the 3-sigma level of badness. Basically, every hitter except Ichiro! performed far below what could've been expected.C: Rob Johnson / Adam Moore -- Yeah, we knew they weren't going to be good ... but a combined OPS+ of 53?

1B: Casey Kotchman -- Far from a sure thing, but age 27 season, career OPS+ of 94. His 2010 OPS+? 73

2B: Chone Figgins -- Coming off a career year, yes, but career OPS+ of 100. His 2010 OPS+? 84

SS: Wilsons -- We knew they were going to suck and they did.

3B: Jose Lopez -- In both 2008 and 2009, his OPS+ was 103. His 2010 OPS+? 71

LF: Milton Bradley -- Sure, we knew he'd miss 50 games, but his career OPS+ was 115. His 2010 OPS+? 80

CF: Franklin Gutierrez -- Age 27 season; career OPS+ of 96. His 2010 OPS+? 87

DH: Ken Griffey -- Talk about having nothing left in the tank ...

Seriously, nobody with any statistical acumen could have predicted it would be this bad.

That's right.

Some of the expectations for this team were wildly overblown. But they should have won something like 81 games, not 61. Even without Cliff Lee for half the season, they should have won at least 75 games.

Even Ichiro ... I mean, it actually wasn't his worst season as a Mariner. His numbers were even worse just two years ago, and he did play 162 games and (not coincidentally) lead the league with 214 hits. But it wasn't a good season, by his standards.

Essentially, none of the regulars played as well as they were supposed to. The bench was a black hole where runs went to die. Russell Branyan did some things in the second half, after being acquired from the Indians after the Mariners showed little interest in retaining him after last season, when he was their only productive power hitter.

It was just one of those weird seasons. Call it a Murphy's Season. They don't happen often, but they do happen to somebody every year or two.*

* That term, which I just invented and you can use it if you want, is obviously an exaggeration. It's impossible for everything to go wrong for a baseball team, because there are too many things. Felix Hernandez did pitch brilliantly, and Cliff Lee was amazing while he was around, and ... well, that's just about it. Close enough.

The Mariners won 88 games in 2007, lost 101 in 2008, won 85 in 2009, and (again!) lost 101 in 2010. They've been particularly schizophrenic for four seasons, and I certainly don't expect them to win 86.5 games in 2011. But they will bounce back next season, because their luck simply has to turn around. Some.

The Mariners lost today, 1-0. Felix Hernandez lost today, 1-0. This doesn't sit well with Aaron Gleeman:

Hernandez is now 12-12 despite a league-best 2.31 ERA in a league-high 242 innings. Clearly he just doesn't "know how to win."

After all, if Mariners catcher Adam Moore had hit a double with two runners on base in the eighth inning instead of taking a called third strike right down the middle of the plate, clearly that would make Felix Hernandez a better pitcher and more deserving of the Cy Young award. Or something

Or if the Mariners' hitters could have rallied in the ninth inning off Blue Jays closer Kevin Gregg, that would have turned Hernandez's "loss" into a "no-decision" or even a "win." You know, because things that happen after a pitcher throws his final pitch are crucial to evaluating his performance. Or something.

I'm right there with you, buddy.

It's a funny thing, though ... I think this "loss" might help Hernandez's Cy Young candidacy as much as it hurts.

Granted, he's now 12-12, which means there's roughly 1-in-3 chance he finishes the season with a losing record. And there are probably at least a few voters, however sympathetic to the cause, simply can't place a starter with a losing record at the top of their ballot.

But the real problem -- in the minds of some voters, I mean -- is that Hernandez doesn't have enough wins. And some of those voters will attribute that lack of wins to some deficiency in Hernandez's performance. Or his character. Or something.

I wonder, though, if a game like today's -- with everyone thinking about the American League's two strongest Cy Young candidates -- might actually go a fair piece toward convincing a few holdouts that "wins" and "losses" sometimes tell us very little about how well a pitcher actually pitched.

I'm not bold enough to suggest that this particular game was a tipping point. But whether you like it or not, it's definitely coming. Which won't be the worst thing.

Jason Rosenberg on the Cy Young race that's probably already been won:

And then there’s the case of King Felix. He is, quite simply, the best pitcher in the AL, if not all of MLB right now. Except he’s lacking one thing: wins. It’s entirely possible that he finishes the season with TEN fewer wins than Sabathia. And to me, that will be an impossible thing for the voters to ignore. The more sabermetrically-inclined group, like Law and Neyer and Kahrl, might be able to overlook a -10 wins difference, but I can’t see the MSM voters look past this. That’s simply too big a chasm to leap.

It is. Hernandez's only chance is a slim one: He'll have to win the rest of his starts while Sabathia's winning none of his. Slimmer than slim.

But the Cy Young Award is just a sideshow. An interesting sideshow, absolutely. A sideshow worth arguing about in November when there's not much news, for sure. But a sideshow none the less.

What's more interesting is performance, and value. And I think it's pretty hard to argue that Hernandez's performance over these past two seasons makes him the most valuable pitcher in the American League.

Over that span -- and among the 72 major league pitchers with at least 300 innings -- Hernandez ranks first in OPS+ and fourth in Wins Above Replacement. The three pitchers ahead of Hernandez in WAR are Roy Halladay, Josh Johnson, and Zack Greinke. Hernandez has thrown significantly more innings than Johnson and Greinke, who are ever so slightly ahead in WAR. Johnson's done all his work in the National League, where Halladay's done nearly half his work.

And this is who Hernandez really is. All of his numbers this season -- with the exception of the wins and losses, of course -- are practically identical to his numbers last season.

There are pitchers with higher strikeout-to-walk ratios, and Hernandez does benefit from the fielders behind him (last year the Mariners probably had the best defensive unit in the American League, and this year they're pretty good).

But when I look at the AL's top pitchers these past two seasons, I see a bunch of guys who have been great one season and merely good in another -- Greinke, Jon Lester, Jered Weaver, Justin Verlander -- and I see Felix Hernandez. The King of the American League.

Mariners prospect Josh Lueke has some crazy strikeout numbers in the minors. He's also got some crazy baggage, and a lot of people are still trying to figure out what the Mariners knew before they traded for him, and when they knew it. Geoff Baker (with a great deal of fantastic reporting):

The Mariners knew all about Josh Lueke's 96-mph fastball when they acquired him from the Texas Rangers in the Cliff Lee deal.

But Mariners executives insisted they knew nothing before the July 9 trade about the 25-year-old minor-leaguer facing felony charges in a rape and sodomy case in which he later pleaded no contest to a lesser charge.

However, new information appears to contradict the Mariners' original version of events. Former Mariners pitching coach Rick Adair said he told general manager Jack Zduriencik about Lueke's troubles well before the deal.

And contrary to Mariners claims that there was nothing they could do after the trade, Rangers general manager Jon Daniels said he made a standing offer that night to take Lueke back.Feel free to read all the grisly details of the case that landed Lueke in jail for 42 days (plus three years' felony probation).

What's striking to me, reading all the quotes from the various parties involved, is that I essentially believe everyone. Or rather, that I believe everyone believes they're telling the truth. When Lueke says he's a "good person," I believe that he believes that. When Zduriencik says he performed all his due diligence -- except for the failure to Google -- I believe he believes that. When Rick Adair says he told Zduriencik all about Lueke, I believe he believes that.

Words are slippery and memories are slippier, and I challenge you to read the whole piece and conclude that anyone's guilty of outright dissembling. Fudging a little bit? Sure. Shading the "facts" to make themselves look a little better? Of course. That's just human nature, and even the most honest among us occasionally leave out the little damning details.

Bottom line here ... Does Lueke deserve a chance to continue his career? I believe that he does. Does Zduriencik deserve to lose his job because he didn't ask the right people the right questions or spend two minutes looking at a list of search results on somebody's laptop? I don't believe that he does.

Which isn't to say anyone gets a free pass. If Lueke does anything remotely like this again, he won't get another chance. The Mariners' performance this season is one blot on Zduriencik's record. The confusion about Lueke's criminal record is another.

From close up, Larry Stone writes about where the Mariners went wrong and he's exactly right. The big finish:

It's time for the Mariners, in the wake of this disastrous season, to step back and realize that to leap forward, they must not get lured again into abandoning the master plan. Let Jack Z do what he does best, which is continue to ramp up the farm system while finding hidden gems — like Franklin Gutierrez, David Aardsma, Jason Vargas and Russell Branyan. There will be a time to jump full-force into free agency, when they are truly on the verge of contention, but this is not that time.

Here's the hidden bonus: Fans will actually get behind a team they believe they can grow with. This year's Mariners team is so maddening in large part because it seems to have such a limited future. Fans know intuitively that the bulk of the current players are vagabonds, dispatched as soon as something better comes along. Just about the only joy is watching the progress of young players with a future such as Michael Saunders and Adam Moore, and eyeing from afar the help on the way in the form of Dustin Ackley, Michael Pineda and Justin Smoak, among others.

I'm convinced fans are on board for rebuilding, even with the inevitable growing pains. I'm even convinced that the Mariners are far closer to respectability than it appears.

They just need to stay the course, once and for all.

They do need to stay the course. And I agree, absolutely, with everything that Stone wrote before the "hidden bonus" ... but that, I just don't believe.

People like Larry Stone and Dave Cameron and Rob Neyer really, really, really want to believe that if you start building something cool, everybody's going to want to watch.

But fans aren't like that. People aren't like that. If you build model airplanes, just opening the box and seeing all those pieces is exciting. Once you start building the thing, there are pieces here and pieces there, landing-gear assemblies and wings held together by smelly glue and clothes-pins. To you -- and few model-plan aficianodos you know -- it's a beautiful thing, even in this state.

To most people, though, it's just a big mess. Nobody wants to see the kit, or all the pieces and the airplane glue and the paint thinner. Everybody wants to see the completed model, with the paint and the decals, hung from the ceiling with fishing line.

I wish it weren't so. I wish more than a tiny minority of fans were interested in the pieces, unassembled and disordered. But they're just not. The fans in Seattle will come back when the airplane's built, and flying high. But not until then.

Posnanski on the 2010 Seattle Mariners and unrealistic expectations:

It all seems so obvious now, doesn’t it? Bringing back Ken Griffey Jr.? Trading for Milton Bradley? Giving 32-year-old Chone Figgins (and his lifetime 99 OPS+) a big-money, four-year deal based mostly on one good season (and then moving him to second base)? Signing 32-year-old Jack Wilson to a multi-year contract though he had not played a full season in two years? Going into the season with Rob Johnson, and his 58 career OPS+, slotted as the regular catcher? Trading for light-hitting Casey Kotchman and inserting him as the Opening Day No. 3 hitter? Building up all sorts of hopes about Ian Snell as a No. 3 starter? Making the moves of a “contender” when the team finished dead last in the American League in runs scored in 2009 and was outscored by 52 runs? Trading a 25-year-old one-time phenom Brandon Morrow and his 98-mph fastball for an older, hard-throwing reliever with the same first name (Brandon League)? Expecting another low ERA closer year from David Aardsma? Letting go of Russell Branyan, who was one of only two good offensive players on the team in 2009 (he led the team in OPS+)?

Yes, it seems so obvious now that the Seattle Mariners were likely to have a terrible crash this season. And it probably should have seemed obvious in February, too. And it probably WAS obvious then — Monday’s firing of manager Don Wakamatsu was etched in stone back before spring training.

But a whole lot of us missed it. Why?

--snip--

I so clearly remember the 1987 Cleveland Indians ... the team that ended up on the cover of Sports Illustrated. The cover read: “Believe it! Cleveland is the best team in the American League.” There was absolutely no reason to believe it. The 1986 Indians had won 84 games (after losing 100 in 1985) with a terrible and old pitching staff (Their second-best pitcher was 47-year-old Phil Niekro — their TWO best pitchers were knuckleballers). But they had won more than they lost by leading the league in batting average, slugging percentage and by scoring a bunch of runs (they were last, though, in walks — a pretty decent sign that things could turn bad when their luck changed). The narrative that things had changed in Cleveland was strong, and the Sports Illustrated cover strengthened it, and the excitement of young power hitters like Joe Carter, Brook Jacoby and Cory Snyder (all would hit 30-plus homers) made it even more appealing. So many of us WANTED it to be true. I did believe it.

But wanting it to be true doesn’t make it true. The Indians lost 100 games again. I thought then that it was bad luck, but it was a bad narrative. This year’s Mariners are on pace to lose 100, too. Yes, all those promising narratives written in February end up in the trash can. And we are left wondering what ever made us believe in the first place.

That's the beginning and the end of Joe's brilliant (as usual) piece. The middle is mostly about a movie from the 1950s called "12 Angry Men" and (as Joe writes) if you haven't seen it, you should. His point is that once a narrative's established -- in this case, that the Mariners were good last year and got better over the winter, thanks to their sabermetrically friendly front office -- it's really hard to look at the actual evidence with any real objectivity.

Fortunately for the defendant in "12 Angry Men," he's got Henry Fonda looking out for him.

And fortunately for us, we've got numbers.

No, the numbers didn't suggest the Mariners would lose 100 games this season. But the numbers -- most of the ones I looked at, anyway -- suggested the Mariners were not a 90-win team, and in fact weren't fundamentally better than the Angels or the Athletics. Not that they would lose 100 games, but that they could easily finish in last place, with (say) 75 wins.

So how do you get from 75 wins to (say) 62?

Well, you make a few lousy moves and you get really, really unlucky besides. I thought a commenter in this thread basically nailed the lousy moves:

Switching Figgins' and Lopez's positions seemed dubious at the time and those two are having terrible seasons. I still don't understand why in the world they did that. Getting Milton Bradley when he wasn't going to be a full time DH seemed like a mistake from the get go. Going with Kotchman over Branyan was another bizarre move. Those are just the ones I remember off the top of my head.

Still, you'd think something would have worked. I mean, something other than trading for Cliff Lee (who was a Mariner for only 13 starts before moving to Philadelphia).

I just got this great new book about the 1990 Reds, and was reading the story about shifting Norm Charlton from the bullpen to the rotation in the middle of the season. Charlton had been a starter as a rookie in 1988, pitched OK but nothing special. Moving into a relief role in '89, Charlton went 8-3 with a 2.93 and became one of the Nasty Boys. He got off to a fine start in 1990, and when the Reds needed a starter in the second half, Charlton got the nod, and went 6-5 with a 2.60 ERA in 16 starts.

Did it have to work? Hardly. But as the authors write, "The move was just another in a year when everything seemed to work."

We know it didn't have to work because the Reds were not, in that period, an outstanding franchise. The year before they won the World Series, they went 75-87. The year after they won the World Series, they went 74-88. Same manager in 1991 as 1990. Same general manager. Many of the same players. It was just one of those years.

This is just one of those years for the Mariners, but in a bad way. Nothing seems to work.

From Larry Stone's Twitter feed:

Don Wakamatsu has been fired as Mariner manager

The Mariners have the third-worst run differential in the American League. The two teams with worse run differentials have already fired their managers this season. Neither of those two teams was expected to be competitive this season; the Mariners were. Ken Griffey, Jr. took naps in the clubhouse during games. Milton Bradley was Milton Bradley. Chone Figgins hasn't earned his salary. And now ... Well, I'm not saying I don't believe that Jack Wilson broke his hand in a bathroom accident. He probably did. Historically speaking, though, "bathroom accident" is just one of the many euphemisms for incidents that might be less flattering to the player and his employer. And when unflattering things happen, they tend to reflect poorly on the manager.

Leaving all that aside, lately there's been a general feeling among those who watch the Mariners that the manager has lost the players, who are just playing out the string.

You can hardly blame the players for giving up on the season. They've been out of the race since Memorial Day. But once a manager has lost his players, it's really hard to get them back. And it's a lot easier to find a new manager than a new 25-man roster.

Update: Clearly the front office isn't taking cues from Larry Stone.

Here's BBTIA on the trade that's sending Cliff Lee to Texas, and Justin Smoak, prospect Blake Beavan, and two other minor leaguers to Seattle. The guts:

Some people turning up here probably want to read my snapshot reaction. Losing Smoak hurts (and I was actually intending to write a post regarding my position on whether the Rangers should deal Smoak or Chris Davis, and what sort of implications that choice could have on both involved organization), but there's a certain camp out there -- and they have a point, to some extent -- that argues that Smoak will never be all that decent against southpaws, thereby rendering him a platoon player. I'm not sure I wholeheartedly buy into that sentiment, but it's out there, and if you're part of that camp then it softens the blow of losing Smoak.

Beavan, per BBTiA scouting guru Jason Parks, had mid-to-back-rotation upside for the most part, writing this previously: "53 current OFP (overall future potential), 54 future [OFP]. Great control, solid-average to plus FB, but his secondary pitches aren’t major league plus pitches. I still think he becomes a long-man/5th type. Without a major league out pitch, Beavan’s ceiling is very limited." Lueke and Lawson are both of some interest to varying degrees, but aren't key components of this deal. All in all, I can get behind this trade despite the heavy front-end price being paid...

Obviously, from the Mariners' perspective this deal is almost completely about Justin Smoak, and I feel obligated to inject a passing note of skepticism ...

Smoak turns 24 in December, and in 70 games with the Rangers he's got a .209/.316/.353 line. It's far too early to give up on him, of course; Adrian Gonzalez, another erstwhile Ranger, struggled in the majors at 23 before breaking through (with the Padres) at 24. There's a pretty good chance that Smoak will do the same thing. There is a chance that he won't.

Meanwhile, the Rangers presumably will promote Chris Davis yet again. Considering his struggles in the majors, they can't count on him for much. But they've been winning with Smoak, and Davis can hardly give them less down the stretch. As for what happens next year ... Well, it's just too bad that Mitch Moreland, like Davis, bats lefty. But that's a question for another day.

One question for today: With Smoak aboard, how will Don Wakamatsu find enough plate appearances for him, Casey Kotchman, and Russell Branyan? Come to think of it, that probably won't be a problem for much longer, as the M's figure to either release Kotchman (who's been awful) or trade Branyan (who hasn't).

Oh, and one more thing: This is a dark day for Angels fans, as the Texas Rangers have now become prohibitive favorites to reach the playoffs for the first time in this century.

Is it "all but certain" that Cliff Lee is about to join the New York Yankees? Every other contending team in the American League must hope not. Joel Sherman this morning:

The Yanks were not assured of obtaining Lee since other clubs such as the Mets, Twins and Rangers were in talks.

But the Yanks were definitely making the strongest move last night, coming from seeming disinterest into the clear front-runner -- and last night it seemed they were all but certain to obtain the 31-year-old lefty.

--snip--

Yankee management looked at its rotation and had some pause. CC Sabathia again was an ace and Andy Pettitte is pitching as well now as ever. But A.J. Burnett and Javier Vazquez are not fully trustworthy, especially for the playoffs, and Phil Hughes has an innings limit of about 175, and might not be available to start.

Cashman might now be in position to either put Hughes in the bullpen to bolster that shaky area or trade a starter, possibly Vazquez, for a few prospects. It was possible that injured Double-A second baseman David Adams also was part of the deal to Seattle since he is a player the Mariners like a great deal.

The Yanks also were obviously worried about being in a highly competitive division with the Red Sox and Rays, and Lee is the kind of player who can separate them. Having Sabathia and Lee -- one-time Indians teammates -- as a 1-2 punch atop the rotation turn the Yanks into even stronger favorites to repeat as champions.

Coals to Newcastle, right? The Yankees have the best record in the majors and their top three starters are 32-7.

But as Sherman points out, Hughes is eventually going to run into a management-prescribed innings limit, and both Burnett and Vazquez have ERAs approaching 5.

Granted, both could start for any other team in the majors. But the Yankees are going to make an immense profit this season -- and for as many seasons in the future as you care to count. Should they not apply their financial advantage when a moment like this arrives? Ownership seems to take some pride in not simply grabbing all the best free agents every winter, which is why they've got eight All-Stars rather than a dozen, and a $210 million payroll rather than $250 million (which they could afford, with plenty left over). But Vazquez actually makes more money than Lee this season; if the Yankees get Lee and trade Vazquez -- even if they have to send some money along in the deal -- they can claim that they've actually lowered their payroll.

Anyway, that's the Yankees. They've got little reason to not do this deal.

What of the Mariners, though? There are still questions about Montero's future as a catcher in the majors. Sure, maybe he'll hit enough to play first base and the Mariners could use a first baseman. But shouldn't they be a little concerned about Montero's struggles in Triple-A this season?

No, probably not. He's 20. At 19, he was devastating in both the Florida State League and the Double-A Eastern League. Maybe the scouts have some concerns, but numbers-wise there's nothing wrong with a 20-year-old doing what he's doing this year.

Which isn't to say the Yankees have this thing locked up. As Buster Olney reports this morning, "it's possible another team could step in and make a more aggressive bid."

I think this deal might hinge upon the secondary prospect. The Yankees can offer Montero. The Twins can offer a catcher, Wilson Ramos. Other clubs might not have similarly talented catchers they're willing to trade, but they do have similarly talented players. The price is presumably one Grade A prospect, and at least one lesser prospect. So then it comes down to how much lesser.

In the wake of Felix Hernandez's Wednesday-night clean sheet against the Yankees, New Yorkers are naturally wondering why their young guys can't do that. For an example, here's Tim Smith:

Hernandez, like Cliff Lee on Tuesday night, threw a complete game for the win. But Hernandez added some spice by pitching a two-hit shutout. Mark Teixeira and Colin Curtis each had doubles. Curtis reached second base after Chone Figgins lost a pop fly in the twilight sky and the ball fell on the grass behind first base.

In his last three games, Hernandez (6-5) has pitched 8-2/3, and nine innings twice.

"He was as good as we've seen all year," said Joe Girardi.

Although Hernandez is just 24 -- the same age as Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes -- you don't hear anyone with the Mariners talking about the "Felix Rules."

All young pitchers aren't built the same. But the way that Hernandez handled the Yankees Wednesday night, you wonder if all the coddling of Chamberlain and Hughes is necessary.

Apples and oranges, right? Or tangerines and oranges?

The Mariners' handling of Hernandez is, as near as I can tell, close to a case study in the care and feeding of a young pitcher.

The M's got Hernandez when he was still very young; at 17, he officially began his professional career and threw 69 innings (and was brilliant).

At 18, he threw 149 innings (and was brilliant).

At 19 ... well, at 19 things got a little crazy. He'd already pitched well in 10 Double-A starts and he seemed particularly precocious, so the M's started him in Triple-A. At 19, he was just one step from the majors. And of course he pitched brilliantly there, too, with an elevated walk rate the only hint that he wasn't some grizzled veteran with outstanding stuff.

Four months after his 19th birthday, Hernandez debuted in the majors. He pitched brilliantly, going 4-4 with a 2.67 ERA in 10 starts; that ERA would remain the lowest of his career until four seasons later (2009).

There have been a few bumps along the way. In his Hernandez's first full season, he finished with a 4.52 ERA. In his third full season, he went 9-11 and issued more walks than usual.

Throughout his journey, though, two things held true: Hernandez was not particularly overworked, and he did stay healthy. In his Age 19 season, split between Tacoma and Seattle, he threw 172 innings, only 23 more than the year before. In his Age 20 season, he threw 191 innings, only 19 more than the season before. And he hovered around the 200 mark until his Age 23 season (2009), when they turned him loose (and he was pitching brilliantly) and he threw 239 innings.

This season he's one pace for roughly 240 innings again ... which seems, if history's any guide, perfectly reasonable for a fantastic pitcher in his mid-20s with essentially no injury history. This is how it's supposed to work, and that it doesn't work this way often is due to any number of things, some of them within a team's control but most not.

When the Yankees drafted Chamberlain, he was almost 21 and his college coaches had already done God-knows-what to his right arm. I don't suppose he was in the best of shape, either. His "training" as a professional pitcher -- ideally, a starter who could give the Yankees at least 200 innings every season -- began at least three years later than Hernandez's training.

Hughes was drafted out of high school, and signed shortly after his 18th birthday ... but he, like most first-round picks, didn't pitch much in that first summer; only five innings in his first professional season. The next year, 86 innings. The year after that, 146 innings. And the year after that, Hughes started getting hurt and the "training" essentially began anew.

I'm sure the Yankees would love to have gotten a hold of Chamberlain and Hughes when they were 16 or 17, and put them on a strict diet of professional coaching, leafy vegetables, and reasonable pitch counts. But they didn't, and so they had to come up with something else once they did have them.

I'm not saying the Joba Rules were brilliantly devised, or that Hughes has been perfectly handled. But if the Yankees could have done with those guys what the Mariners did with Hernandez, they would have.

Occasionally -- very occasionally -- it's easy. Usually it's not.

Hey, I thought the Mariners were supposed be trading veterans away. But instead they do this:

The Cleveland Indians have traded Russell Branyan back to the Seattle Mariners, MLB.com reported Saturday night.

Branyan was told after the Indians' loss to the Reds he would be returning to his former club. The Indians will receive two minor leaguers, Triple-A center fielder Ezequiel Carrera and high Class A shortstop Juan Diaz, the website reported.

OK, I'll bite ... Why on earth would the M's trade two young players for one old one? Geoff Baker got Jack Zduriencik on the phone:

What makes this deal so curious is that the Mariners just gave up a promising young outfielder, who won the AA batting title last season, in exchange for an aging bat with a history of back woes at a time they are 14 games out of first place. In a phone conversation, Zduriencik explained his reasoning behind the move.

"If you look at our team, as we move forward, just about every player who is here now will be here again next year," he said. "We're committed to the development of our players and that goal, that objective, has never changed for us. But part of that development process is also winning games. We want our players to be able to experience winning games this year. And we're trying to do what we can to give them what they need to get there."

In addition to that promising young outfielder (Carrera), the infielder (Diaz) isn't exactly chopped liver, either; he wasn't listed among the Mariners' notable prospects this spring, but he's only 21, has been solid for two straight seasons in the California League, and seems to have at least a moderately decent shot at someday making the majors.

But just moderately. And Carrera, who played well enough last year in Double-A to establish himself as a decent prospect, is hitting .268/.339/.315 this year in Triple-A. He's 23 with room to grow, but didn't figure to beat Ichiro Suzuki or Franklin Gutierrez or even Michael Saunders out of a job anytime soon.

The Mariners probably didn't give up much. It's still a deeply weird move for a team that's 14 games out of first place. Doesn't mean it's wrong. Just means that Zduriencik thinks he knows something the rest of us don't.