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• Nelson Cruz's seventh-inning grand slam on Friday night capped off an eight-RBI performance as the Rangers downed Toronto 14-3. Or should we say, another eight-RBI performance. Cruz had one last season (July 22, also against Toronto). Combined with Josh Hamilton's four-homer game earlier in the month, the last three eight-RBI performances have all been posted by Rangers.
• Oakland got one-hit again on Tuesday, this time by the Angels and C.J. Wilson. Last Saturday they had already joined Minnesota and Pittsburgh as the only teams to get no-hit or one-hit twice this season. Not a single team had it happen three times in 2011. The Athletics have done it three times before Memorial Day.
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Jason Miller/US PresswireShin-Soo Choo hopes to keep getting the Indians off to soaring starts.
• The Indians' Shin-Soo Choo led off Thursday night's game against Detroit with a solo home run. It was not just Cleveland's first leadoff homer this season, it was its first home run in the first inning this season. The Indians were the last team to not have a first-inning home run yet in 2012.
• The focus is always on Stephen Strasburg when he pitches. Last Sunday, however, it was on his hitting. Strasburg not only hit the second home run by a pitcher this season, he also singled and scored another run before being replaced. It had been more than five years since a pitcher had a perfect, multi-hit day at the plate, scored at least twice and chipped in a home run. Kip Wells did it for the Cardinals on April 19, 2007. It was a first in Nationals/Expos franchise history. Mike Leake of the Reds, by the way, hit the third pitcher home run of the year on Monday.
• Dan Haren threw a complete-game shutout Thursday against the Mariners. It was the latest in a series of impressive strikeout games as Haren racked up 14 of them (including Alex Liddi four times). But perhaps the most impressive part? Haren didn't walk a single batter.
  It's the most strikeouts to be recorded in a zero-walk shutout since Erik Bedard racked up 15 against the Rangers on July 7, 2007. And it's a first (shutout with 14-plus strikeouts and no walks) in Angels franchise history.
• Giancarlo Stanton’s grand slam on Monday, off Jamie Moyer, left the bat at 133 mph (courtesy ESPN's Home Run Tracker team) and knocked out part of the video board beyond the left-field seats. Stanton joins Brandon Inge as the only players this season with multiple slams.
  It was Stanton's fourth career slam. In 24 seasons in the majors, Moyer has allowed only eight. The last on Aug. 26, 2004, to Abraham Nunez of the Royals.
• Since the start of 2010, the Marlins now lead the National League in grand slams hit; Monday’s was their 12th (one more than the Cardinals, Reds, and Braves).
• The Cubs, already having enough trouble scoring runs (28th out of 30 teams), posted 10 hits on Friday against the Pirates. They failed to score a single run. All the hits were singles, and they went 0-for-12 with runners in scoring position.
  They're the only team this year to reach double digits in hits and still get shut out. It happened just once in 2011 (June 18, by the Dodgers). The Cubs have had one other such game in the past 20 years (June 22, 2009, at Atlanta).

OK, I'll give you Justin Verlander.

I'll even give you Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Austin Jackson.

But five through 25? I think I'll take the Cleveland Indians over the Detroit Tigers.

The Indians beat the Tigers 5-3 on Tuesday, even though Ubaldo Jimenez struggled once again with his control. Relief ace Chris Perez, who criticized Indians fans on Saturday for their lack of support (Cleveland is last in the majors in attendance), was greeted with a thunderous ovation as he came in out of the bullpen in the ninth inning. With two runners on, he struck out Cabrera and got Fielder to ground out.

Just another save. "That's the loudest I've ever been cheered here," Perez said. "I was pumped, the adrenaline was going. It could have gone the other way. I came through. I didn't know which way it was going to go. I was thankful it went the good way."

The good way pushed the Indians to 24-18. The Tigers are 20-22, and for the life of me I can't understand why everyone still thinks Detroit is the better team. Mind you, I'm not saying the Indians are better. I just don't see why the Tigers are better. Just because everyone picked them before the season?

Once you get past those big shiny names on the Tigers' roster, if you want to pinpoint one big difference between the two clubs, it's a little statistic that us sabermetric types love: the old base on balls. The Indians lead the American League with 188 walks, 25 more than any other team; the Tigers have 127 walks, ninth in the league. That patience will go a long ways toward giving Cleveland an offense capable of scoring as many runs as Detroit's (the Indians have outscored the Tigers by one run so far, 184 to 183).

In fact, when you go position by position, you'll see what I mean.

Catcher: Carlos Santana versus Alex Avila. So far, Avila has been unable to match 2011's .366 average on balls in play, the sixth-best average in the majors. Which means he's hitting like he did in 2010. Santana, meanwhile, is a walks machine who hit 27 home runs in 2011.

First base: Casey Kotchman versus Prince Fielder. Obvious edge to Fielder, of course. The most interesting thing about his start (.292/.354/.472) is his walk rate is down from 15.5 percent to 8.5 percent. Part of that is he was intentionally walked 32 times a year ago, just three this year.

Second base: Jason Kipnis versus Ramon Santiago/Ryan Raburn. Please. Big edge to Kipnis with Santiago and Raburn both hitting under .200. Will Detroit make a move here?

Third base: Jack Hannahan/Jose Lopez versus Miguel Cabrera. This may be the first and only time you'll see Jose Lopez mentioned in the same breath as Miguel Cabrera. So far, however, this edge has been minimal. Cabrera is hitting .304/.362/.488, Hannahan .287/.365/.436 but with better defense. According to Defensive Runs Saved, Cabrera has cost the Tigers four runs -- worst among third basemen (tied with Hanley Ramirez).

Shortstop: Asdrubal Cabrera versus Jhonny Peralta. With the Indians preaching plate discipline, check out Cabrera: Last year, 44 walks and 119 strikeouts; this year, 18 walks and just 12 strikeouts. He's hitting .309 with an OBP over .400 but hasn't lost any power. In 2011, he swung at 31 percent of the pitches out of the strike but he has cut that down to 24 percent. Small differences can go a long way. Peralta was a big surprise for Detroit last season but hasn't matched the numbers in the plate or in the field.

Left field: Johnny Damon/Shelley Duncan versus Andy Dirks/Delmon Young. Damon has looked terrible. Dirks has looked great, but too early to evaluate this one.

Center field: Michael Brantley versus Austin Jackson. With his defense and hot start at the plate, Jackson has been as valuable as any player in the American League not named Josh Hamilton.

Right field: Shin-Soo Choo versus Brennan Boesch. This one isn't close and that's with Choo off to a middling start in the power department. Choo has a .391 OBP, Boesch a .271 OBP. Choo is a solid defender while Boesch is slow and lumbering. With his poor start at the plate and poor defense, Boesch has been one of the worst regular in baseball so far. Choo is an underrated asset and I love Manny Acta's decision to move him into the leadoff spot.

Designated hitter: Travis Hafner versus field. Cleveland's designated hitters have six homers and .370 OBP (fourth in the league). Detroit's DHs have one home run and a .238 OBP (13th in the league). Big, big edge to Pronk.

Rotation. With the best pitcher on the planet, Detroit's rotation has posted a 3.87 ERA; without the best pitcher on the planet, Cleveland's rotation has posted a 3.94 ERA. Both teams have played 42 games and Cleveland's starters have thrown 12 more innings. Moving forward, maybe you think Detroit's group will perform better. After all, Doug Fister missed some, Max Scherzer just struck out 15 in game (never mind that the Pirates have been an historic strikeout binge of late) and Rick Porcello will put it together one of these years, because everyone says so. Meanwhile, Ubaldo Jimenez can't throw strikes, Justin Masterson hasn't pitched as well as last year and Derek Lowe is doing it with smoke, mirrors and a deal with the devil. The one thing the Cleveland starters do is keep the ball in the park; they've allowed 20 home runs, second-fewest in the league. Look, maybe you think Scherzer will start pitching better; I'd say so will Masterson. Maybe you're a Porcello believer; I'm not, especially with that infield defense behind him. Lowe is a fluke? Well, let's see how Drew Smyly does as the scouting reports get around on him.

Bullpen. Neither pen has been stellar, as Cleveland's 4.16 ERA ranks 13th in the AL and Detroit's 4.76 ranks 14th. Cleveland's top guys, however, have been pretty solid -- Chris Perez is 14 of 15 in save opportunities while Vinnie Pestano, Joe Smith and Nick Hagadone have pitched well. Detroit's top two of Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit, so dominant a year ago, have both struggled to throw strikes.

I said before the season that I believed the Tigers were drastically overrated. On the Baseball Today podcast late in spring training, I predicted Cleveland would win the division. Unfortunately, when ESPN.com published predictions a few days later, I changed my pick to Detroit. I bought into the hype.

I'm not buying any longer. This division is wide, wide open. (And I haven't even mentioned the White Sox!)

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Not every move involves rosters: Some just involve putting your better assets to work. Case in point: Today’s lineup card for the Cleveland Indians, which featured Shin-Soo Choo batting leadoff, something Manny Acta started trying just yesterday.

Choo was followed by second baseman Jason Kipnis in his usual slot, then Asdrubal Cabrera, then Carlos Santana. If that sounds to you like every good Indians batter, stacked up in a row, you’d be right. But with Choo’s .362 OBP (pre-game) up front, it gave manager Manny Acta some big-inning potential, and when Minnesota's Jason Marquis got into trouble in the fifth, there was no easier out for him to get, and they cranked a trio of home runs before Ron Gardenhire could get him off the mound.

Admittedly, your best four up front is pretty much the definition of a short-sequence offense. But stacking all the good stuff up front is usually a better way to get a crooked number or two on the board, and then you can try to be cute with the assorted sidekicks in the bottom of the order: Jack Hannahan and Michael Brantley, Casey Kotchman and Johnny Damon. Considering that it was a rare day off for Travis Hafner against a right-hander, though, that front-loaded lineup can at least go five deep, Choo to Kipnis to Cabrera to Pronk to Santana. That isn’t a bad place to start.

And while that back end might not be a good group, it’s worth remembering that the Indians aren’t married to any of them. Hannahan and Kotchman are defensive specialists who at the best of times get on base. But behind them, the Tribe has options: Lonnie Chisenhall’s slugging .562 at Columbus and ready to roll, while Matt LaPorta’s hammered 10 home runs as his teammate.

It’s the outfield where things aren’t happy. Damon’s utility as a source of OBP or power is now several seasons out of date, while Brantley’s marking time until he goes from ex-prospect to outright suspect and career fourth outfielder. And the Tribe doesn’t have a ready or ready-ish alternative in the upper levels among their outfielders; rather, they have the latest iteration of a story they’ve been putting children to sleep with for years: “Grady Sizemore will be back soon.” When your former center field star is the stuff of milk-carton legend, you know that you probably shouldn’t count on him as an in-season solution.

Which is what will make the weeks and months to come interesting to follow as far as the Tribe’s lineup cards are concerned. Will Brantley or Damon earn his keep? Will Sizemore actually return, and play well enough to consign one of the other two to the bench? Will Chisenhall or LaPorta get the call?

Or will Mark Shapiro simply deal for a corner bat worthy of the name before the end of July? Because that’s the thing that you can really wonder about: If you’re not getting offense out of first base or left field, that’s usually one of the easiest things to fix around the deadline, and without having to give away a top prospect. If Choo gets to be the Indians’ once and future leadoff man, then in addition to riding the benefits of that front-loaded lineup, you can stop excusing Damon or Brantley as guys who help at the top of the order, and start looking at how little they’re delivering on offense. Fix that, and the team the Tribe’s winning with now could be better still a deal later in August.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

It is no secret that after Shin-Soo Choo's strong seasons in 2009 and 2010 (.300 average, .397 OBP, at least 20 home runs, 85 RBIs and 20 steals), he has since underperformed. Although critics are often quick to bring up his injuries and off-the-field incident as a means to explain his dismal season in 2011, his lack of performance has continued into 2012, as he's hitting .240/.371/.344 with just one home run entering Saturday.

So, what is the problem with Choo? The answer may surprise you. First, take a look at a chart courtesy of "It's Pronounced Lajaway" writer Ryan McCrystal that showcases Choo's batting averages according to pitch speed.

Choo's biggest problem has been sliders. During Choo’s impressive 2010 campaign he destroyed sliders, finishing with a .308 batting average against them with five home runs; however, since the end of 2010 Choo has managed a feeble .164 batting average against sliders. Choo has not hit a home run off of a slider since Oct. 1st, 2010.

If you are more of a visual learner, perhaps these two heat map interpretations can explain just how much Choo has regressed versus the dreaded slider. Check out the difference between the 2010 season and his at-bats since, and see if you can see the hole that has developed:



Pitchers have taken notice to this hole. Of the 10 games the Cleveland Indians have played against divisional opponents in 2012, nine featured Choo facing multiple sliders.

Although this is a big problem, it is not the only issue with Choo so far in 2012. You may have also noticed from the chart that Choo’s average versus pitches 85-plus mph has also declined in each of the past three seasons; however, the chart did not provide Choo’s splits versus right/left-handed pitchers. See below for the numbers.

Choo has managed to collect only two hits against left-handers this season on pitches of this type, the worst in the majors among players who have had at least 20 at-bats against 85-plus mph pitches. This may not seem like much of a problem considering it is more difficult for left-handed hitters to hit left-handers, but after seeing all of Choo’s success in past seasons versus left-handed fastballs it is alarming. It's a small sample size (Choo has 36 at-bats against left-handers all season), but worth watching to see if Choo continues to struggle in this regard.

A bright spot from this situation is the fact that despite Choo's significant struggles, the Indians find themselves at 18-14, leading the division by two games over the Detroit Tigers; however, no Cleveland fan should think that the team can have a successful season with a subpar Shin-Soo Choo.

Brenden Lowery writes for "It's Pronounced Lajaway", a blog that covers the Cleveland Indians. Follow Brenden on Twitter.

We drown in numbers and statistics these days, but here's one that sums up the crumbling state of the Boston Red Sox quite eloquently: Following Josh Beckett's implosion on Thursday night, Red Sox starters have now allowed five-plus runs in 14 starts; Nationals starters have done so once.

Here's another way. Fifty-three American League starting pitchers are qualified for the AL ERA title. Here's where Boston's five starters rank:

32. Jon Lester (4.29)
38. Daniel Bard (4.83)
46. Felix Doubront (5.29)
51. Josh Beckett (5.97)
53. Clay Buchholz (9.09)

OK, ERA can be a little misleading early in the season. Here's where those five guys rank among AL starters in strikeout/walk ratio:

27. Beckett
32. Doubront
41. Lester
48. Bard
51. Buchholz

The Red Sox are 12-19 for a lot of reasons: injuries to Jacoby Ellsbury, Kevin Youkilis, Carl Crawford and Andrew Bailey; a slow start from Adrian Gonzalez; a couple bullpen implosions; Bobby Valentine using outfielder Darnell McDonald to pitch in a tie game.

Those are all factors, but despite the injuries on offense, the Red Sox are still second in the AL in runs scored; the bullpen has five losses, but 14 teams have more; and Valentine is more lightning rod than explanation.

No, the responsibility rests with the starting rotation. Bard and Doubront have perhaps predictably been mediocre, but they've actually been improvements over Tim Wakefield and John Lackey, so the blame falls on the supposed big three of Beckett, Lester and Buchholz.

Beckett started in Fenway against Cleveland on Thursday, his first start since April 29 and first since the infamous "he cares more about golfing than pitching" story leaked to the media. Beckett actually had pitched pretty well since his five-homer disaster in his first start, posting a 2.93 ERA over his next four starts. While I'm happy to report that I didn't see any greasy fried chicken stains on his jersey, his evening was yet another May disaster for the Sox.

In the top of the second, with one run already in, Jack Hannahan hit a 2-2 changeup to right field for a two-out home run. Not surprisingly, the Fenway faithful let go with more than a few loud boos. In third inning, Jason Kipnis crushed a 3-2 cutter over the bullpen in right-center. After Asdrubal Cabrera singled, Beckett got ahead of Travis Hafner with two strikes but then threw four consecutive balls. Shin-Soo Choo doubled to right on a 2-0, four-seam fastball to score Cabrera. Michael Brantley fell behind two strikes, then lined a double into the gap in left-center on a 1-2 curveball, scoring two more runs and knocking Beckett from the bump in what would be an 8-3 Indians victory.

You can see the issues here: Even when he got ahead of batters, Beckett was unable to put them away. He used the whole tool box -- changeups, four-seamers, cutters, curveballs; the Indians hit them all. Six of the seven hits off Beckett went for extra bases.

I blurted out on Thursday's Baseball Today podcast that Beckett is the most overrated pitcher of the past decade. That's probably unfair to a pitcher who has been good for a lot of years, a guy who had dominant postseason runs in 2003 and 2007 in leading the Marlins and Red Sox to World Series titles. Those playoff performances did inflate his reputation a bit, as his regular-season performances haven't been consistently at that level. He has received Cy Young votes just twice in his career (finishing second in 2007 and ninth in 2011). He hasn't exactly been CC Sabathia when it comes to durability, reaching 200 innings just three times and never topping 215. With the Red Sox, he's had two seasons of ERAs over 5.00.

Maybe 2012 is going to be one of those down years; Red Sox fans who saw Beckett and Lester collapse down the stretch expected leadership from Beckett, not reports on his golf swing.

Speaking of Lester, what has happened to the dominant left-hander of a few seasons ago? In 2009, he averaged 10.0 strikeout per nine innings, but that figure has dipped to 6.0 this season. His walks are up more than one per nine innings since 2009. His velocity is still fine; as Curt Schilling has pointed out, his command isn't, with Lester especially struggling in pitching to the outside corner against right-handed batters. Going back to his final 11 starts of 2011, Lester has a 4.16 ERA and a poor strikeout/walk ratio of 86/50. The stuff is still there, but we're going on 18 starts now of mediocre pitching.

Buchholz is an even bigger disaster, the worst starter in the majors so far. Unable to get the ball down in the zone, Buchholz has been pounded like a punching bag. Opponents are hitting .343 and slugging .613 off him. Essentially, the average hitter against Buchholz is David Ortiz. The Red Sox can't afford to keep sending him out there; he probably has one more start before a demotion to Triple-A or stint on the disabled list is necessary.

Eric Karabell made a good argument on the podcast: the Red Sox were 14-17 a year ago and only a historical collapse prevented them from reaching the playoffs. They're only two games worse now, he would suggest, so rationally they're far from out of it. Eric could also point out that Detroit and Arizona were both 14-17 after 31 games a year ago and won 95 and 94 games, respectively.

Eric is right, of course. The Red Sox aren't dead.

But with a 1-8 record in May and a starting rotation in shambles, they certainly look it.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Every season there is at least one surprise team. Every season there is at least one major disappointment.

Everyone is calling the Detroit Tigers a lock in the AL Central. But here are 10 reasons the Cleveland Indians can win the AL Central.

1. Shin-Soo Choo's return to form.

Choo was one the best players in baseball in 2009-10, when he hit .300/.397/.486, played good defense and stole 43 bases in 52 attempts. His Baseball-Reference WAR over those two seasons was fifth-best among position players, behind only Albert Pujols, Evan Longoria, Joe Mauer and Adrian Gonzalez, and just ahead of Chase Utley, Troy Tulowitzki, Miguel Cabrera and Robinson Cano. In 2011, he had three separate stints on the disabled list and a DUI arrest that left him embarrassed. A national hero in Korea, he felt he had let down his country. Now he's healthy again and capable of returning to the six-win player he was instead of the 1.3-win player of 2011.

2. A full season from Jason Kipnis.

Cleveland second basemen hit a combined .252/.296/.367 in 2011, and that included Kipnis' excellent late-season performance over 150 plate appearances. ZiPS has a conservative projection for Kipnis of .258/.320/.420 with 16 home runs. I think he'll do a little better than that -- Bill James projects .272/.337/.457. Either way, the Indians will get a lot more production from second base.

3. Carlos Santana will be a monster.

In his first full season, Santana hit for power (27 home runs) and drew walks (97, third-most in the AL). What he didn't do was hit for average, a .239 overall mark dragged down by a .201 mark from the left side. Santana also had a .263 average on balls in play, one of the lowest figures among MLB regulars. There's a good chance we'll see better numbers across the board.

4. The rotation is better than you think.

ESPN Insider Dave Cameron touched on this last week , comparing the Cleveland and Detroit rotations. "The Tigers get a few more strikeouts, but the Indians' starters are expected to issue fewer walks and give up fewer home runs, and the overall output for both groups is expected to be quite similar," Dave wrote. Justin Masterson is a legit top-of-the-rotation and starter and Ubaldo Jimenez is just one year removed from a big season with the Rockies.

5. Improved depth.

The Indians ranked ninth in the AL in runs scored a year ago and part of the reason is they were forced to give too many at-bats to nonproductive players -- Austin Kearns, Travis Buck, Orlando Cabrera, Lou Marson & Co. all ate significant chunks of playing time. Now they have Casey Kotchman, Matt LaPorta and Russ Canzler who can play first base or DH if Travis Hafner gets injured. They have Jack Hannahan and Lonnie Chisenhall (with some major league action now under his belt) at third base. Shelley Duncan will be given more time in the outfield. Canzler can play out there if needed. Even if Grady Sizemore doesn't contribute, the offense will be deeper and better. And speaking of the rotation, last year's rotation gave 32 starts to the artist formerly known as Fausto Carmona, and he was terrible with a 5.25 ERA. Mitch Talbot had 12 awful starts (6.64 ERA). They have better depth now with Josh Tomlin, Derek Lowe, Kevin Slowey, rookie Zach McAllister and Jeanmar Gomez. The bullpen is fairly deep again with Chris Perez, Vinnie Pestano, Rafael Perez, Tony Sipp and Joe Smith.

6. Justin Verlander won't be as good.

Some of that prediction is just the law of averages. But Verlander also threw 4,301 pitches between the regular season and playoffs, more than any other pitcher. By the postseason, when he struggled, maybe fatigue had set in a bit. Verlander also allowed a .236 average on balls in play. Maybe you're thinking, Sure, but it was Justin Verlander! He's tough to hit. Not disagreeing, but that was one of the 10 lowest figures by a starting pitcher since 1990. Odds are luck did play some factor in that.

7. Prince Fielder is only a minor upgrade.

Remember, Fielder's bat is essentially replacing Victor Martinez's and Martinez had a very good season, hitting .330 with a .380 on-base percentage. In 595 PAs, he created about 93 runs. In 692 PAs with the Brewers, Fielder created about 135 runs. He created 117 runs the year before. Comerica is a little tougher place to hit than Miller Park and Fielder won't be able to feast off the dregs of the NL Central. I'm not saying that Fielder isn't good; of course he it. But he will only be worth an additional 10 to 15 runs over 600 plate appearances compared to what Martinez gave the Tigers last season.

8. Decline from Jhonny Peralta and Alex Avila.

These two were lost in the all Verlander and Miguel Cabrera hype but were keys to Detroit's success. Peralta has been all over the place in his career, but considering hi 2009-10 OPS was .696, I'm predicting regression from 2011's .824. Avila had a breakout season and is a better bet to repeat his 2011 numbers but not many catchers produce an .895 OPS year after year.

9. Jose Valverde will not go 49-for-49 in save opportunities.

Valverde was a big reason Detroit exceeded its projected record of 89-73 by six wins. Another key to the Detroit bullpen a year ago was rookie Al Alburquerque, who went 6-1 with a 1.87 ERA in 41 games. He had offseason elbow surgery and isn't expected back until midseason. In fact, Alburquerque and Doug Fister went a combined 14-2. You see that happening again?

10. Delmon Young ... your No. 5 hitter.

Young has had one good season in his career -- 2010 with the Twins. Otherwise, he's a low-OBP guy who eats up a ton of outs, is a terrible left fielder and doesn't really have big-time power (one season over 13 home runs). That 3-4-5 of Cabrera, Fielder and Young is painfully slow. Now, Young may end up serving a lot of time as the DH if Miguel Cabrera does play third base every day. Either way, you're getting some bad defense -- Miggy at third or Young in left field.

So, there you go. Look, I'm not delusional; the Tigers are still the division favorite. The Indians have a lot of ground to make up -- Detroit had a run differential of plus-76 a year ago while Cleveland was minus-56. But if you're looking for a surprise division winner for 2012, Cleveland is my pick.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

We're back with more divisional position rankings for 2012. You can scream, you can holler, you can protest and call me names. But just because I rated your player lower than you think he deserves doesn't mean I hate your team.

(Here are the NL East and NL West rankings.)

Catcher
1. Alex Avila, Tigers
2. Joe Mauer, Twins
3. Carlos Santana, Indians
4. Salvador Perez, Royals
5. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox

The AL Central might not be baseball's glamor division, but it may have three of the top five catchers in the game if Mauer bounces back from his injury-plagued campaign. Since we're not certain of his health, I'm going to give top billing to Avila, who had the best hitting numbers of any catcher outside of Mike Napoli and plays solid defense. I wouldn't be surprised if Santana explodes; with his power-and-walks combo, all he has to do is raise his average 30 points and he'll be one of the most valuable players in the game. Considering that his average on balls in play was .263, there is a good chance of that happening. Perez hit .331 in 39 games; OK, he won't do that again, but he doesn't turn 22 until May and puts the ball in play. There's no shame in being fifth in this group but that's where I have to place Pierzynski, who keeps rolling along and is now 36th on the all-time list for games caught.

First base
1. Prince Fielder, Tigers
2. Paul Konerko, White Sox
3. Eric Hosmer, Royals
4. Justin Morneau, Twins
5. Matt LaPorta, Indians

In 2009, when Morneau played 135 games, he hit .274 AVG/.363 OBP/.516 SLG. Even if he replicates that line, he may rank only fourth. Konerko has hit a combined .306 with 70 home runs the past two seasons. He's 104 home runs from 500 but turns 36 in March, so he's probably four seasons away; not sure he'll hang on that long, but who knew he'd be this good at this age. If Hosmer improves his walk rate and defense and Konerko declines, Hosmer could climb past him. If it doesn't happen this year, it will happen next. The most similar batter to him at age 21: Eddie Murray.

Second base
1. Jason Kipnis, Indians
2. Gordon Beckham, White Sox
3. Johnny Giavotella, Royals
4. Alexi Casilla, Twins
5. Ramon Santiago, Tigers

Well, this isn't exactly a Robinson Cano/Dustin Pedroia/Ben Zobrist debate, is it? Kipnis' bat is a sure thing, as evidenced by his excellent play after his call-up (.272 average and .507 slugging in 36 games). His glove was once a question mark but now appears solid enough that he looks like a future All-Star to me. Can anybody explain what has happened to Beckham? He's second mostly by default; he's gone downhill since his superb rookie season in 2009 but is only 25, so there's hope that he'll find those skills again. Giavotella has some potential with the bat (.338/.390/.481 at Triple-A), which is more than you can say for Casilla and Santiago.

Third base
1. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
2. Mike Moustakas, Royals
3. Lonnie Chisenhall, Indians
4. Danny Valencia, Twins
5. Brent Morel, White Sox

We'll go with the idea that Cabrera is Detroit's starting third baseman, although I predict he'll end up starting more games at designated hitter. Manager Jim Leyland will end up doing a lot of mixing of his lineups, but for this little exercise we have to choose a starter. Moustakas didn't tear up the league as a rookie and I worry about his ability to hit lefties (.191, homerless in 89 at-bats), but he showed more than fellow rookies Chisenhall and Morel. Valencia doesn't get on base enough and he rated poorly on defense in 2011. I hope he's at least good in the clubhouse. Morel was terrible all season and then exploded for eight of his 10 home runs in September and drew 15 walks after drawing just seven the previous five months. Maybe something clicked.

Shortstop
1. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
2. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
3. Jhonny Peralta, Tigers
4. Alcides Escobar, Royals
5. Jamey Carroll, Twins

Peralta had the best 2011 season, but he's a difficult guy to project. He had an .804 OPS in 2008 but dropped to .691 in 2009. He had a .703 OPS in 2010 and then .823 in 2011. I just don't see a repeat season, at the plate or in the field. Cabrera didn't rate well on the defensive metrics, and after a strong start he wore down in the second half. Ramirez has turned into a nice player, with a good glove and some power, and he even draws a few walks now. Escobar is a true magician with the glove. Carroll is actually a useful player who gets on base (.356 career OBP), but he's pushed as an everyday shortstop and he'll be 38. He'll be issued the honorary Nick Punto locker in the Twins' clubhouse.

Left field
1. Alex Gordon, Royals
2. Alejandro De Aza, White Sox
3. Ben Revere, Twins
4. Michael Brantley/Shelley Duncan, Indians
5. Ryan Raburn/Don Kelly, Tigers

I'm not sure what to do here. After Gordon, I just get a headache. We'll pretend to believe in De Aza after his impressive stint in the majors (171 plate appearances, .329/.400/.920). He's hit in Triple-A for three seasons now, and while he's not going to post a .400 OBP again, he should be adequate. Revere is one of the fastest players in the majors, but he's all speed and defense; he hopes to grow up to be Brett Gardner, which isn't a bad thing, but he'll have to learn to get on base at a better clip. Brantley doesn't have one outstanding skill so he'll have to hit better than .266 to be anything more than a fourth outfielder; Duncan provides some right-handed pop as a platoon guy. The Tigers have Delmon Young, but I'll slot him at DH. That leaves supposed lefty masher Raburn and utility man Kelly to soak up at-bats; both had an OBP below .300 in 2011, although Raburn has hit better in the past.

Center field
1. Austin Jackson, Tigers
2. Denard Span, Twins
3. Grady Sizemore, Indians
4. Lorenzo Cain, Royals
5. Alex Rios, White Sox

I can't rate Sizemore any higher since he's played just 104 games over the past two seasons, and he hasn't had a big year since 2008. Rios was terrible in '09, OK in '10 and worse than terrible in '11. I'm not betting on him.

Right field
1. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians
2. Brennan Boesch, Tigers
3. Jeff Francoeur, Royals
4. Josh Willingham, Twins
5. Dayan Viciedo, White Sox

Choo would like to forget 2011, but there's no reason he shouldn't bounce back and play like he did in 2009 and 2010, when he was one of the 10 best position players in the AL. I don't expect Francoeur to deliver 71 extra-base hits again, but maybe he'll surprise us. Viciedo is apparently nicknamed "The Tank," which makes me wonder how much ground he can cover. He did improve his walk rate last season in the minors and turns 23 in March, so there's still room for more growth.

Designated hitter
1. Billy Butler, Royals
2. Travis Hafner, Indians
3. Ryan Doumit, Twins
4. Delmon Young, Tigers
5. Adam Dunn, White Sox

Has there been a bigger prospect disappointment than Young in the past decade? I mean, yes, there were complete busts like Brandon Wood and Andy Marte, but those guys had obvious holes in their games, while Young was viewed as a sure thing, a consensus No. 1 overall prospect. But his bat has never lived up to its billing. Other than one decent year in Minnesota, he has low OBPs and he clearly lacked range in the outfield. His career WAR on Baseball-Reference is minus-0.2 (1.6 on FanGraphs), meaning he's been worse than replacement level. He's just not that good, Tigers fans.

No. 1 starter
1. Justin Verlander, Tigers
2. John Danks, White Sox
3. Justin Masterson, Indians
4. Luke Hochevar, Royals
5. Carl Pavano, Twins

Masterson was better than Danks in 2011, and I do believe his improvement was real. He absolutely crushes right-handers -- they slugged an anemic .259 off him. Danks had two bad months but has the longer track record of success. Even in his "off year" he had a higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate than Masterson. If you want to argue about Hochevar versus Pavano, be my guest.

No. 2 starter
1. Doug Fister, Tigers
2. Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians
3. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
4. Francisco Liriano, Twins
5. Jonathan Sanchez, Royals

Yes, sign me up for the Doug Fister bandwagon club. Jimenez's fastball velocity was down a couple miles per hour last season but the positives are that his strikeout and walk rates were identical to 2010; he'll be better. Floyd isn't flashy but he's now made 30-plus starts four years in a row, and he'll become a very rich man when he becomes a free agent after this season. Sanchez won't have the luxury of pitching in San Francisco (and to eight-man NL lineups).

No. 3 starter
1. Max Scherzer, Tigers
2. Scott Baker, Twins
3. Philip Humber, White Sox
4. Bruce Chen, Royals
5. Josh Tomlin, Indians

I could be underrating Baker, who was excellent last season, but only once in his career has he made 30 starts in a season. Tomlin's fans will disagree with this ranking, but he's a finesse guy who relies on the best control in baseball (21 walks in 26 starts). He's the kind of guy you root for, but the league seemed to figure him out as the season progressed.

No. 4 starter
1. Felipe Paulino, Royals
2. Rick Porcello, Tigers
3. Jake Peavy, White Sox
4. Derek Lowe, Indians
5. Nick Blackburn, Twins

Scouts still love Porcello's arm and I know he's just 23, but he's made 89 big league starts and shown no signs of getting better. His WHIP has increased each season and his strikeout rate remains one of the lowest in baseball. Paulino has an electric arm -- he averaged 95 mph on his fastball -- and is getting better. How could the Rockies give up on him after just 14 innings? How could the Astros trade him for Clint Barmes? Anyway, kudos to the Royals for buying low on the guy who may turn into their best starter. Peavy can't stay healthy. Lowe has led his league in starts three out of the past four seasons, but I'm not sure that's a good thing anymore. Blackburn is a poor man's Lowe, and I don't mean that in a good way.

No. 5 starter
1. Chris Sale, White Sox
2. Jacob Turner, Tigers
3. Aaron Crow/Danny Duffy, Royals
4. Fausto Carmona/David Huff/Jeanmar Gomez, Indians
5. Brian Duensing/Jason Marquis, Twins

Welcome to the AL Central crapshoot. Turner and Sale have the most upside, but one is a rookie and the other is converting from relief. Crow will also be given a shot at the rotation, but his difficulties against left-handed batters (.311 average allowed) don't bode well for that transition. Even if the artist formerly known as Carmona gets a visa, what do you have? A guy with a 5.01 ERA over the past four seasons. Duensing is another typical Twins pitcher, which means he at least throws strikes. His first full season in the rotation didn't go well, so of course the Twins brought in Marquis, yet another guy who doesn't strike anybody out.

Closer
1. Jose Valverde, Tigers
2. Joakim Soria, Royals
3. Matt Thornton, White Sox
4. Chris Perez, Indians
5. Matt Capps, Twins

Four good relievers plus Matt Capps. I do admit I'm a little perplexed by Perez, however. In 2009, he struck out 10.7 batters per nine innings. In 2010, that figure fell to 8.7 but he posted a pretty 1.71 ERA. In 2011, it was all the way down to 5.9, but without much improvement in his control. Perez blew only four saves but he did lose seven games. He survived thanks to a low .240 average on balls in play. He's an extreme fly-ball pitcher but didn't serve up many home runs. Bottom line: I'd be nervous.

Bullpen
1. Indians -- Vinnie Pestano, Rafael Perez, Tony Sipp, Joe Smith, Nick Hagadone
2. Royals -- Jonathan Broxton, Greg Holland, Louis Coleman, Tim Collins, Jose Mijares
3. Tigers -- Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel, Phil Coke, Daniel Schlereth, Al Alburquerque
4. White Sox -- Jesse Crain, Jason Frasor, Will Ohman, Addison Reed, Dylan Axelrod
5. Twins -- Glen Perkins, Alex Burnett, Anthony Swarzak, Kyle Waldrop, Lester Oliveros

If you're starting to think I'm not high on the Twins for this season, you would be correct.

Intangibles
1. Royals
2. Indians
3. Tigers
4. White Sox
5. Twins

I like the youthful exuberance of the Royals, plus the likelihood of improvement from the young players and the possibility of some midseason reinforcements from the minors. The depth of the bullpen will help bolster a shaky rotation, and this just feels like an organization that is finally starting to believe in itself. The Indians are riding last year's positive results and enter the season knowing they might get better production from Choo and Sizemore and full seasons from Kipnis and Chisenhall. I'm not knocking the Tigers here, but they do lack depth in the pitching staff and the pressure is on them.

The final tally
1. Tigers, 65 points
2. Royals, 55 points
3. Indians, 54 points
4. White Sox, 46 points
5. Twins, 35 points

No surprise here: The Tigers will be heavy favorites to win the division with a lineup that should score a ton of runs. I don't think it's a lock that they'll win -- Verlander, Avila, Peralta and Valverde will all be hard-pressed to repeat their 2011 campaigns, for example. But the Royals and Indians appear to have too many questions in the rotations, the White Sox have serious lineup issues, and the Twins have a beautiful ballpark to play their games in.

An impartial observer might take a snapshot of the American League Central and conclude that the race is an exercise in wheel-spinning. But that’s not entirely correct: The four teams at the top just have no idea if they’re coming or going.

The Twins were treated to a combination wedgie and noogie in a 20-6 loss to Texas on Monday and are now 47-55. But they seem strangely resistant to entertaining offers for free agent-to-be Michael Cuddyer, a solid righty bat, terrific clubhouse guy and crafty situational reliever in blowouts who might net them a decent prospect haul in return. It’s nice to be loyal and cling to hope based on some recent fast finishes, but you have to wonder if Twins general manager Bill Smith is missing an opportunity to capitalize on a valuable asset here.

The Indians, who beat the Angels 3-2 on a walk-off single by rookie second baseman Jason Kipnis, have an AL Central-best run differential of plus-2. They began the season at 30-15, but injuries to Shin-Soo Choo and Grady Sizemore and an overall lack of lineup depth have stalled their momentum and left fans wondering when the magic ends and the reality check begins. Meanwhile, GM Chris Antonetti continues to look for a bat on a limited budget.

The White Sox, the American League’s answer to the enigmatic Reds, are always a stinker away from an Ozzie Guillen expletive-fest. And general manager Kenny Williams, a guy who lives to make waves at the trade deadline, seems genuinely conflicted. Amid rumors that he’s talking to St. Louis about a deal for young outfielder Colby Rasmus, Williams appeared on ESPN Radio in Chicago and said he might “turn over the entire roster’’ if the White Sox don’t make a move here shortly.

That leaves us with the division leaders in Detroit, where Justin Verlander might or might not have enough help in the rotation to get the Tigers to the postseason, and GM David Dombrowski and manager Jim Leyland might or might not be on the spot with owner Mike Illitch in the final year of their contracts.

It was only fitting that when the Tigers and White Sox met in a big AL Central showdown Monday night at U.S. Celluar Field, all the division’s warts were on display. Between home runs by Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski, the Chicago crowd was treated to botched pop flies, a muffed pickoff, a near-collision between Juan Pierre and Alex Rios in the outfield and a wild pitch that careened off Pierzynski’s shinguard and was turned into an out at second base by reliever Jesse Crain.

The Tigers ran out four pitchers -- Duane Below, Chance Ruffin, Charlie Furbush and David Purcey -- with a combined 215 2/3 innings in the big leagues. The vast majority of those belong to Purcey. And White Sox starter Mark Buehrle, miracle of miracles, actually issued a leadoff walk in the fifth inning.

Is this any way to run a pennant race?

Take an informal survey of people in baseball front offices, and their predictions for the division generally fall along the same lines. Just about everyone favors Chicago’s pitching staff, but the White Sox are going to have a hard time winning if Adam Dunn (.159 batting average) and Rios (.301 slugging percentage, 23 RBIs) continue to look this pathetic at the plate. If Dunn plans to hit .200 this season, he better have some Ted Williams-caliber mashing in store for August and September.

Offensively, the Tigers win the Best in Show award. Detroit ranks fifth in the league in runs scored, and Miguel Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta, Alex Avila, Brennan Boesch and Victor Martinez all have an OPS north of .800.

The Tigers have been trolling for a front-end starter. But with Ubaldo Jimenez and James Shields pretty much un-acquirable, they might have to stand pat or settle for a back-end guy to complement their top four of Verlander, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello and Brad Penny.

It could be worse: Scherzer, although up-and-down this season, has generated a swing-and-miss percentage of 9.3 -- better than Matt Cain, Jered Weaver and David Price. And Porcello has quietly gone 4-0 with a 3.33 ERA in July. He’s still 22 years old, remember?

In a race this chaotic, the schedule can make a difference. While the Tigers are finished playing Boston and New York this season, the White Sox welcome the Red Sox and Yankees to Chicago for seven games starting Wednesday. As for the feisty Indians, they have 10 games against Boston, Texas and Detroit in early August. That’s their sink-or-swim stretch.

“It’s a weak division,’’ said a National League personnel man, “but I’ve liked the Tigers all year. Never underestimate a team with a good offense and an ace [starter]. You just don’t have long losing streaks.’’

And who cares about labels? Dunn can’t step to the plate these days without another out-of-town broadcaster referring to him as “the struggling Adam Dunn.’’ But as he told Yahoo! Sports in a recent interview, he still enjoys playing, “Even though I suck.’’

Say this for the Big Donkey: He’s come to the right place.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Baseball fans are more hyped up this time of year than a bunch of 6-year-olds chewing down an endless supply of Skittles.

If your team is a contender, you hope your general manager can find that missing piece of the puzzle (but not give away anything of value). If your team is out of it, you hope your general manager can make a move for the future. You're buzzed on trade rumors and prospects.

But how many of those prospects actually turn into stars?

I did a quick search of the best players in baseball to see how many were once acquired at the trade deadline while prospects. I looked at 124 hitters and 70 pitchers -- any players with 5.0 or more WAR (wins above replacement) from Baseball-Reference.com.

• Shin-Soo Choo, Indians. Acquired in 2006 from the Mariners for Ben Broussard. Baseball America's No. 51 prospect before 2005 (and Seattle's No. 7 prospect entering 2006), Choo was hitting .323/.394/.499 at Triple-A Tacoma.
• Ben Zobrist, Rays. Acquired in 2006 (with Mitch Talbot) from Astros for Aubrey Huff. Never rated as a prospect, but was hitting .327/.434/.473 at Double-A, although he was 25.
• Nelson Cruz, Rangers. Acquired in 2006 (with Carlos Lee) from Brewers for Francisco Cordero, Kevin Mench and Laynce Nix. The Brewers were already Cruz's third organization. Like Zobrist, he was 25 but was hitting .302 with 20 home runs at Triple-A.
• Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians. Acquired in 2006 from the Mariners for Eduardo Perez. This trade actually happened in late June, before the Choo trade. Not a good summer for former Seattle GM Bill Bavasi. Cabrera was Seattle's No. 6 prospect entering the season and was hitting .236 at Triple-A. BUT ... he had skipped Double-A and was just 20 years old. An unbelievably bad deal considering Perez was nothing more than a platoon first baseman/DH. (He hit .195 with one homer for the Mariners and then retired.)
• Michael Young, Rangers. Acquired in 2000 from the Blue Jays for Esteban Loaiza. Young was 23, playing second base in Double-A and hitting .275/.340/.426. He certainly wouldn't have projected as a future seven-time All-Star.
• Elvis Andrus, Rangers. Part of the haul in 2007 from the Braves for Mark Teixeira, he was Baseball America's No. 65 prospect before the season, and would be No. 19 before the 2008 season.
• Daniel Hudson, Diamondbacks. Acquired in 2010 from the White Sox for Edwin Jackson. BA's No. 66 prospect before 2010, he had made five big league starts when traded.
• Cliff Lee and Brandon Phillips. The Indians acquired Lee and Phillips and Grady Sizemore from the Expos for Bartolo Colon in 2002, although they eventually traded Phillips to the Reds for Jeff Stevens.

So that's nine out of 214 players -- about 4 percent. We could also include Carlos Santana, Neftali Feliz and Wilson Ramos, who haven't been around long but I would argue are among the top 214 players in baseball. You could also include Justin Masterson, although he was already an established major leaguer when traded for Victor Martinez.

For the sake of comparison, by my count 89 of the 214 players are still with the team that originally drafted or signed them -- 42 percent. (Note that a few other top players were acquired in the offseason while still prospects, including Jair Jurrjens and Michael Bourn.)

The important note from above is that several of the guys who did develop were older guys -- Zobrist and Cruz were 25; Choo and Young were 23. Hudson was considered more of a fifth-starter type. None of those guys were elite prospects when dealt. Certainly, Andrus, Santana and Feliz would fit that billing of "elite" when traded. Santana had come out of nowhere for the Dodgers in 2008 to put up monster numbers at Class A. Cleveland stole him for Casey Blake. Andrus and Feliz were very young but scouts loved the raw talent.

Add it all up and as you see all the names being moved over the next 10 days, the odds are that most of the prospects traded won't develop into anything.

But it's that lure and small chance of acquiring the next Choo or Santana that makes this time of year tastier than a bag of Skittles.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

Every major league hitter goes through a slump. Sometimes it's a just a bad week here or there. Other times, it's a poor start or a slow month that may get established as part of a historical pattern. For example, when Mark Teixeira hit .136 in April of last season it was viewed as a traditionally slow start from Teixeira, who went on to hit .256 with 33 home runs and 108 RBIs. Sometimes though, slow starts stretch into extended slumps, which then develop into bad first halves and that's where we are with several hitters right now.

In some cases, it's hardly unexpected or inexplicable. Hanley Ramirez is hitting .205 but has been hampered by a nagging back injury. Adam Dunn is batting .185 with seven home runs but Dunn has been something of an all-or-nothing guy before. Other struggling stars like Ichiro or Hideki Matsui may just be aging. Some, like Aubrey Huff, may simply just be coming off career years or resurgent seasons. There are, however, other players whose extended slumps are more puzzling. Here are five players who have suffered some of the biggest OPS drops from last season and whose slow offensive starts may be the most baffling.

Dan Uggla, Braves
Worst slump of season: 5-for-63 (.079), May 16 to June 7.

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Dan Uggla has had the biggest OPS decline of any player this season. Uggla's .877 OPS last season has plummeted to .566 after an 0-for-5 Thursday, a difference of .311 and well below his previous career-low of .805 in 2007. Uggla is batting .174/.244/.322, far below his career marks of .256/.341/.474. Another concern is Uggla's BABIP (batting average on balls in play), which has sunk from a career-high .330 last season to just .193. Uggla's groundball percentage is up to nearly 45 percent, by far highest of his career. He hit just .202 in April and followed with a .160 May, during which he managed only two home runs. From May 1 through June 15, Uggla hit .166 and slugged just .290. His Wins Above Replacement, a career-best 5.0 last season, is now -0.5, second-worst to only Orlando Cabrera among major league second basemen.

Shin-Soo Choo, Indians

Worst slump of season: 9-for-54 (.167), May 30 to June 14.

Choo's OPS has slid from .885 last season to .670. His 6.0 Wins Above Replacement last season is down to 0.8. Choo's season has actually seen a pair of lengthy slumps. He hit just .207 (17-for-82) from April 1 to April 24, followed by his most recent May 30-June 14 skid, during which he went without a home run and had just one RBI. One disturbing trend with Choo is that his slumps seem to be getting worse. Choo's .250 batting average through April could have been chalked up to simply a slow start but he followed by hitting .247 in May and through his first 13 games and has hit just .184 in June. Choo made headlines following his May 2 DUI arrest and since that incident is batting just .225/.312/304.

Daric Barton, A's

Worst slump of season: 8-for-64 (.125), April 16 to May 7.

Last season Barton proved that even without big slugging production from a traditional power position, a first baseman could still contribute with solid defense and good strike zone discipline. This season, however, Barton has fallen off the map. His .798 OPS last season is down to .591, a .207 drop. He's batted only .212/.327/.264, numbers that would have a utility infielder concerned. Never the prototypical first base slugger, Barton's Isolated Power (slugging minus average ) was only .144 and .131 in his two previous seasons but it's now down to a barely-visible .053. Barton seemed born from Oakland's Moneyball mold, walking 16 percent of the time in 2010 while striking out in only 18 percent of his plate appearances. Those numbers haven't altered dramatically in 2011 but Barton is a first baseman who has yet to hit a home run this season. In fact, Barton drove in only five runs in April and just eight in May. His Wins Above Replacement of 5.1 last season is now -0.4 this year, third-lowest among first basemen, ahead of only Lyle Overbay and Aubrey Huff.

Casey McGehee, Brewers

Worst slump of season: 6-for-52 (.115), May 21 to June 7.

McGehee has seen a .187 drop in his OPS from .801 last season to .614. In 2010, McGehee batted .285/.337/.464, but those numbers are down to .230/.287/.327. The production has vanished. From April 20 to June 15, McGehee hit only .218 with two home runs and 17 RBIs in 50 games. His BABIP: .330 in 2009 and .306 last year, is down to .257. Since his last home run on May 20 , McGehee has hit only .161 and slugged .169. McGehee is 28 years old and has played just two full major league seasons but this is a significant drop-off for a player whose 3.4 Wins Above Replacement last year is down to -0.3 this season. McGehee slugged .499 in 2009 and .464 in 2010, but this year's .327 slugging percentage ranks him ahead of only Miguel Tejada and Chone Figgins among third basemen.

Nick Swisher, Yankees

Worst slump of season: 9-for-54 (.167), April 7 to April 27.

Swisher's OPS has dropped as his profile has been raised. We see the Yankees' fun-loving outfielder in commercials, sitcoms and promos, but he's had a .142 OPS decline from .870 last season to .728. Swisher's .335 BABIP last season is down to .262. His batting average has dropped 59 points to .229 and his .511 slugging percentage from last season is at just .369. Swisher had one significant slump in each of the first two months of this season. He went without a home run during April's 9-for-54 skid and was then homerless again during a 5-for-34 slump in May. For the first two months of the season, Swisher batted just .213/.335/.314 with only three home runs in 49 games, but there is reason for optimism. Swisher has batted .293/.434/.610 in June with a 1.044 OPS. He has three homers and eight RBIs in 13 games this month. For the season, his line-drive percentage is at 20.6, his highest as a Yankee. Still, his career-high 4.2 WAR last season sits at just 1.0.

(Thanks to Dan Braunstein and Justin Havens of our "Baseball Tonight" research staff for their help with a portion of this post. Dan and Justin never slump.)

Follow Steve Berthiaume on Twitter: @SBerthiaumeESPN.

I watch a lot of baseball games. Hey, it’s part of my job, so I’m not complaining. One thing I do is jot down notes on defensive players; while I believe in the value of the various defensive metrics, I also believe in observation. Plus, it’s important to note that all the great plays don’t necessarily show up as Web Gems on “Baseball Tonight.” Sometimes, a spectacular catch is made because a fielder made a bad jump on a ball. And, of course, the occasional slick play doesn’t mean a guy is consistent day after day.

So I thought it would be fun to look at the players I’ve most been impressed with on defense this season. This, of course, is influenced by the games I’ve seen. I know Gerardo Parra’s defensive numbers are terrific, but I won’t profess to having watched the Diamondbacks much. Anyway, the guy who jumps out at me most has been Angels center fielder Peter Bourjos. He is FAST, capital letters. He gets unbelievable reads and jumps on balls. To me, the true test of a center fielder (or any outfielder) is the low liner that you have to run in on, whether it’s right in front of you or off on an angle. It takes a great read off the bat, the right angle, and sometimes the courage to attempt a diving catch. In his prime, Andruw Jones made those plays look routine. The balls over the head usually make the highlight films, but a lot of mediocre fielders can look good ranging back on a long flies.

Bourjos makes all the plays. I was watching the other night in a game against Tampa Bay when somebody lined a ball into left-center. Bourjos raced after it and made a great diving catch. Watching it live, it didn’t necessarily look that amazing. But what made it more impressive was seeing the replay from the long-range overhead shot from the upper deck behind the plate: You could see how Bourjos was moving almost instantaneously with contact and how quickly he covered the 60 feet or whatever to make the play. He’s a great athlete, one of the fastest runners in the game, and the next in a line of great Angels center fielders: Gary Pettis, Devon White, Jim Edmonds, Darin Erstad, Torii Hunter and now Bourjos. I don’t know if any team has had a run of defensive players like that at one position. Bourjos will go down alongside them. He’s still developing as a hitter; right now, he chases too many pitches and strikeout too much, but he’s just 24. He’s going to be covering a lot of ground for a lot of years.

So here are my Gold Glovers so far, based on personal observation. I then looked up the consensus defensive leaders of three defensive metrics: UZR (found on FanGraphs), Total Zone Rating (from Baseball-Reference.com) and John Dewan’s +/- system (found on Bill James online).

First base: Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox

Metric consensus: 1. Gonzalez; 2. Todd Helton; 3. Adam LaRoche.
While Gonzalez’s hitting has been getting all the attention, the Red Sox knew they traded for an excellent two-way player. Gonzalez is slow on the bases, but he’s an underrated athlete who has the quick feet and soft hands required for a first baseman.

Overrated: Mark Teixeira. TV analysts tend to rave about his defense, but it seems more average than great these days, as he’s lost some of his range.

Second base: Brandon Phillips, Reds

Metric consensus: 1. Dustin Pedroia; 2. Ian Kinsler; 3. Mark Ellis.

Phillips undoubtedly leads in spectacular plays, and he and Paul Janish form a slick double-play duo. The metrics don’t agree on Phillips: UZR rates him fourth overall and has rated him as an excellent defender in the past; Baseball-Reference’s Total Zone rates Phillips below average for 2011 and throughout his career. I like what I see, but he could be a classic example of a guy who excels in Web Gems.

Overrated: Orlando Cabrera. Guess what? Most 36-year-olds have lost a step or two, and while the former shortstop got a lot praise early in the year, the metrics seem to agree that his range is lacking.

Third base: Adrian Beltre, Rangers

Metric consensus: 1. Evan Longoria; 2. Beltre; 3. Pablo Sandoval.

How has Beltre won only two Gold Gloves in his career? Longoria will probably win this and I can’t argue too much with that. Beltre hasn’t any quickness and can still make the long throw from the baseline. Yes, the metrics all love Kung Fu Panda’s range, believe it or not.
Overrated: David Wright. The metrics all agree that he’s not the fielder he once was -- and hasn’t been for several years.

Shortstop: Alcides Escobar, Royals

Metric consensus: 1. Troy Tulowitzki; 2. Alex Gonzalez; 3. Escobar.

Escobar has great range to his right, with an amazing cannon from deep in the hole. And he needs to be spectacular, because his hitting is bordering on unacceptable -- .227/.260/.270. OK, that is unacceptable. Tulo is like Cal Ripken: He might not look flashy and his powerful arm allows him to play a step or two deeper than other guys. The metrics back up his outstanding reputation. Elvis Andrus also ranks high, although his 13 errors indicate lapses in concentration.

Overrated: Asdrubal Cabrera. A consensus rating here: They all agree he has below-average range.

Left field: Brett Gardner, Yankees

Metric consensus: 1. Gerardo Parra; 2. Gardner; 3. Delmon Young.

It’s funny, I get a question every week in my chat asking if the Yankees should try to upgrade Gardner. Really, you don’t like a left fielder with the range of a center fielder, a guy puts up a good on-base percentage as well? Anyway, Gardner is terrific, great jumps and reads, and big a reason guys like Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon have put up surprising numbers. Parra’s numbers are off the charts, but everything I’ve read and heard indicate he’s been spectacular. Delmon Young? Hmm.

Overrated: Carlos Gonzalez. He won a Gold Glove last year, but none of the metrics rate him as a great defender.

Center field: Peter Bourjos, Angels

Metric consensus: 1. Denard Span; 2. Carlos Gomez; 3. Bourjos.

There are a lot of good center fielders out there right now, with Andrew McCutchen, Cameron Maybin and Drew Stubbs also rating well on all three defensive systems.

Overrated: Matt Kemp. A Gold Glover in 2009, but that seemed unwarranted at the time and definitely now. But his bat has made him an MVP candidate this year.

Right field: Shin-Soo Choo

Metric consensus: 1. Torii Hunter; 2. Choo; 3. Carlos Beltran.
I had no idea where Choo would rate, since I mostly love his powerful throwing arm (he was a pitcher as an amateur). But he also has good range out there. The metrics don’t have a lot of consensus among right fielders. In fact, Kosuke Fukudome rates No. 1 on Baseball-Reference.com … and last in FanGraphs’ UZR.

Overrated: Ichiro Suzuki. All three metrics have Ichiro rated as below average this year. In fact, not just below average, but terrible. He doesn’t seem terrible to me, but it does appear that more balls are falling around him this year. I wonder if he’s sensed that he’s lost a step and is playing a little deeper this year. Still, it seems odd that he would lose his speed and range so suddenly; something to keep an eye on.

Catcher: Matt Wieters, Orioles.

Metric consensus: 1. Wieters; 2. Wilson Ramos; 3. Buster Posey.

OK, I cheated on this one. With the usually excellent Yadier Molina not having a great year throwing out runners, that honor goes to Matt Wieters, who has thrown out 17 of 39 attempted basestealers.

Overrated: Brian McCann. Hey, he’s not in there for his glove anyway.

SERIES OF THE WEEK

Cleveland at Detroit, Tuesday through Thursday

Tuesday: Justin Masterson (5-4, 3.17) vs. Justin Verlander (7-3, 2.89)
Wednesday: Fausto Carmona (3-8, 5.71) vs. Brad Penny (5-5, 4.69)
Thursday: Mitch Talbot(2-3, 4.01) vs. Max Scherzer (8-2, 4.39)

After beating Boston on May 23, the Indians were 30-15 and led the AL Central by seven games. Since then they’ve gone 4-15 and the Tigers have caught them, setting up this week’s big showdown. They’ve been shut out five times in those 19 games and scored one or two runs in seven games. The pitching and defense haven’t been much better. The Indians had a 3.38 ERA on May 23, but have a 5.90 ERA since, allowing 202 hits and 23 home runs in 157 innings. Carmona, in particular, has been terrible, allowing 31 runs in 27 innings over his past five starts.

PITCHING MATCHUP OF THE WEEK

Tuesday: Alexi Ogando (7-0, 2.10) vs. CC Sabathia (7-4, 3.15), Rangers at Yankees

With Bartolo Colon heading to the DL for at least a couple weeks after tweaking his hammy, Sabathia will face even more pressure to go deep into games to help preserve the Yankees' thin bullpen. Many keep waiting for Ogando to regress or show fatigue, but he keeps dominating and has held opponents to a .188 average. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) may be an unsustainable .210 -- since 2000, no pitcher with at least 100 innings has allowed a BABIP that low -- but he has one of the arms in the majors, throwing a hard, sinking fastball that has baffled hitters all season. He’s allowed more than two runs just twice in 12 starts, although one of those against the Yankees on April 17, also in Yankee Stadium, when he allowed five runs in 6 1/3 innings.

THREE STRIKES

1. The Brewers completed a big sweep of the Cardinals with a 4-3 win on Sunday, with Prince Fielder hitting a two-run homer in a four-run sixth as the Brewers rallied from a 3-0 deficit. Fielder has eight home runs and a .412 average in June and is suddenly looking like an MVP candidate with a season line of .305/.415/.627 with 19 home runs and 58 RBIs. Still think Pujols will get the bigger deal this offseason? And speaking of awards, Shaun Marcum will be a sleeper Cy Young contender as he’s now 7-2 with a 2.68 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, .208 average allowed and 83 strikeouts in 90.2 innings.

2. Kudos to Cleveland manager Manny Acta for putting the “slumping” Carlos Santana back in the cleanup spot and offering a perfectly sound reason for doing so: "He leads our team in on-base percentage," he said. "That means he's making the least amount of outs on our team. I'm not a big stat guy, but outs are an important thing in this game, and he makes fewer outs than anyone we have."

Well, Acta understates things a bit … outs aren’t just an “important thing” in baseball, they’re the most important. It’s why I stress on-base percentage so often. If you’re looking at one stat for a hitter, look at his OBP. It’s also interesting that he described himself as “not a big stats guy” when he’s actually known as a manager who is versed in sabermetric studies and numbers.

3. Francisco Liriano was really good on Sunday, taking a no-hitter into the eight against Texas. He was much more impressive than in his sloppy no-hitter earlier this against the White Sox, throwing strikes and getting ahead of hitter. After a long bottom of the seventh when the Twins scored five runs and ran through three Texas pitchers, Liriano fell behind 3-0 to Adrian Beltre and then grooved a 3-1 fastball that Beltre lined into left-center. Can the Twins really climb back into the AL Central race? They’ve won nine of 11, allowing four runs or less in 10 of those games, and are 9.5 games back. However, they’re still 13 games under .500. So even if the Tigers and Indians play .500 ball, the Twins would need to reel off 18 wins a row just to catch them.

Rant of the Week

I read a column in a New York newspaper that said Joba Chamberlain got hurt because of the way he was handled. Now, it was a pretty absurd accusation to make: It’s impossible to pinpoint a reason for his injury and nobody knows the answer. Pitchers get hurt all the time; unfortunately, it’s part of the game. Now, even more ridiculously, the writer suggested that Chamberlain’s injury means the Yankees need to throw their young stud pitchers in Double-A -- Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances -- more innings, like Nolan Ryan is doing in Texas. Banuelos and Betances are averaging barely more than five innings per start. Banuelos is also just 20 years old. And this we do know: Pitchers that young should be protected; one reason we have so many young, dominant pitchers now compared to 15 years ago is that they were handled much more carefully in the minors. As for Joba, maybe the Yankees did mishandle him. Or maybe he just never was going to be good as the New York media and Yankees fan wanted him to be. As for Ryan, I guess it’s worth pointing out that he didn’t develop any of the pitchers on the Texas staff. And as for his Double-A staff, prized prospect Martin Perez has pitched 65.2 innings in 12 starts … barely five innings a start.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

OK, we had so much fun with the first round of the mock "franchise player draft" that we decided to conduct a second round -- primarily because we were shocked that Miguel Cabrera went unselected.

So we decided to see who the next 30 players might be. Now, the owners below didn't draft the players, but we included the names since the first-round pick may have affected the second-round pick. Dave went first and made all the odd picks, while Eric made the even selections.

31. Doug Glanville (Wilson Ramos): Miguel Cabrera -- Best hitter on the board, could have easily gone in the top 10. Not much defensively or in the car, but he can rake.

32. Tristan H. Cockcroft (Justin Upton): Adrian Gonzalez -- How are these great offensive monsters slipping so far? Tristan would have his 3-4 hitters for a while.

33. Barry Larkin (Roy Halladay): Jay Bruce -- Roy says he wants a big power bat for the middle of the order. And Bruce is a solid defender as well and just 24.

34. Buster Olney (Michael Pineda): Ryan Zimmerman -– It’s good to have strong defense at the hot corner, and Zimmerman brings that. Hopefully he brings more health, but he’s only 26.

35. Jonah Keri (Jose Bautista): Jered Weaver -- This team is in win-now mode with Bautista, so we’ll go with Jered Weaver, the best ace left on the board.

36. Tim Kurkjian (Clayton Kershaw): Tommy Hanson -- Why stop with one ace? Timmy would have the best one-two rotation punch in baseball!

37. Jayson Stark (Carlos Gonzalez): Jose Reyes -- We thought about the appropriately named Jayson Nix, but we’ll take a 28-year shortstop having his best season.

38. Rick Sutcliffe (Neftali Feliz): Elvis Andrus -- One Texas Ranger isn’t enough, and while Reyes is terrific, Andrus is 22 and has a lot of growing to do. Someday soon, he could be Reyes.

39. Kevin Goldstein (Stephen Strasburg): Eric Hosmer -- KG is a prospect hound so let’s give him Hosmer, who could be the best hitter in the game in a couple of years ... and the next decade after that.

40. Mark Mulder (Mike Stanton): Cole Hamels -- Gotta love the lefties! You say Weaver is the best ace on the board … I beg to differ!

41. Matt Meyers (Hanley Ramirez): Andrew McCutchen -- At least Eric didn’t give Mulder Ryan Howard. I’ll take the five-tool center fielder to go with our five-tool shortstop.

42. Jerry Crasnick (Starlin Castro): Matt Kemp -- Well, I had McCutchen all ready to go there, but Jerry profiled Matt Kemp back in March, and I got the feeling he believed a rebound season was coming. Kemp is, after all, only 26.

43. Christina Kahrl (Buster Posey): Colby Rasmus -- You can have Kemp. I'll take the center fielder with good on-base skills, power, good defense and is two years younger.

44. Jason Churchill (Carlos Santana): Jeremy Hellickson -- Jason’s catcher needs someone to throw to him. Hellickson might end up the AL Rookie of the Year, and there’s no reason he can’t keep improving.

45. Steve Berthiaume (Justin Verlander): Dustin Pedroia -- Off to a slow start, but he's a good hitter and fielder at a premium position. Plus, Steve is a big Sox fan.

46. Jim Caple (Joe Mauer): Prince Fielder -– At least one of Caple’s players should be durable and possess power. Fielder certainly can hit home runs. And when he moves Mauer from behind the plate, it wouldn’t be to first base, anyway!

47. Aaron Boone (Robinson Cano): CC Sabathia -- With Cano on board, Boone wants to win now, so it's the big, workhorse lefty who still has 7-8 more good years in. Or maybe 15 if he goes to Bartolo Colon's doctor.

48. Jim Bowden (David Price): Manny Machado –- Jim does love the prospects, and why do I (Bryce Harper) and Jason Grey (Mike Trout) get all the fun of choosing minor leaguers? Machado is an easily projectable shortstop and I’m sure Jim would agree he is worth waiting until 2013 for.

49. Jason Grey (Mike Trout): Brett Anderson: Jason is crushed by the Machado pick, but Anderson is a nice consolation prize.

50. Orel Hershiser (Jon Lester): Brian McCann -- I knew Grey would have wanted Machado! Orel probably scoffed at that and myriad other picks. He wants to win right now. McCann is arguably the best offensive catcher (with power) in the game, and he’s 27. Orel would love this pick!

51. Mark Simon (Ryan Braun): Drew Stubbs -- Mets fan Simon can't pull the trigger on David Wright and takes Stubbs and his 30/30 potential and terrific range in center.

52. Eric Karabell (Bryce Harper): Mat Latos -- Hey, it’s actually my pick! I’d better get my ace here. I considered Zack Greinke, but Latos is four years younger, and even if my home ballpark is small, I think Latos could overcome it. Plus, I’ll get him more run support.

53. Enrique Rojas (Albert Pujols): Carl Crawford -- Obviously, we're banking on both Pujols and Crawford just having slow starts. They'll bounce back ... right???

54. Jorge Arangure Jr. (Jason Heyward): Matt Wieters -- Jorge said he chose Heyward because he wanted a gifted offensive force for another 15 years. Enter Wieters, who will hit and head to many All-Star games.

55. Chris Singleton (Josh Johnson): Asdrubal Cabrera -- Nice grab on Wieters there, EK. I'm a believer in Cabrera, who is just 25 and pounding the ball so far this season. Even if he fades, we're talking about a switch-hitting shortstop with 15-20 homers and solid D.

56. Amy Nelson (Tim Lincecum): Logan Morrison -- Amy has her freaky ace, now she gets a young on-base machine developing power quicker than most thought. Plus, Amy and Logan will be Tweeting about their franchise 24/7. It’s a win-win.

58. David Schoenfield (Felix Hernandez): Pepe Frias -- HA! I control Schoenfield’s pick here! He gets the late-1970s shortstop that slugged .290 in his career, with one home run (off John Candelaria, no less) and he’s 62 years old. OK, he can have Shin-Soo Choo. We know he’s got power and good years left.

59. Keith Law (Evan Longoria): Brian Matusz. C'mon, EK, you know I'd take Terry Harmon over Pepe Frias. Give Klaw Matusz, a future Cy Young winner ... with the Yankees.

60. Karl Ravech (Troy Tulowitzki): Mark Teixeira -- All the things that Karl mentioned on his first overall pick make sense here. Consistent power, contract is set, winning organization ... Karl’s gonna score some runs! Plus, with the 61st pick in the franchise draft, he could always get some pitching ... wanna keep going?

In a year that has been so improbable, the most predictable result has been that of the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Phillies have allowed the fewest runs in the major leagues behind a rotation that leads the majors in complete games, strikeouts and fewest walks allowed. The staff has combined for seven shutouts, a pace of 25 -- that would be the most since the 1969 Mets recorded 28.

As a result, the Phillies are 28-18, owners of the second-best record in the majors.

On the other hand, the Phillies have struggled to score runs in the absence of Chase Utley and Domonic Brown (and now Shane Victorino). Despite playing in one of the better hitter's parks in the league, the Phillies are 12th in the NL in runs per game and on pace for 620 runs, which would be the lowest total for a Phillies team in a full season since the 1988 club scored 597. Juan Samuel led that team with 67 RBIs and Steve Jeltz hit .187 in 148 games. After averaging 4.6 runs per game in April, the Phillies are averaging 2.8 in May after getting shut out on Sunday by the Rangers. They haven't scored more than three runs in their past nine games, a stretch in which they're hitting .172.

As a result, the Phillies have won just one game in which they've allowed more than four runs.

Utley is set to return Monday and Brown returned on Saturday, going 0-for-4 in his season debut. Their replacements did not fare well: Phillies second basemen (mostly Wilson Valdez and Pete Orr) are hitting a punchless .226 (no homers, 10 RBIs) and their right fielders (mostly Ben Francisco) are hitting .224/.323/.370.

How much of an impact will Utley have on the lineup? Valdez and Orr combined for about 13 runs created in 177 combined plate appearances. Last season, Chase Utley played 115 games -- coincidentally, almost exactly how many games the Phillies have remaining (116) -- and created about 82 runs in 511 PAs while hitting .275/.387/.445. At their current rate of production, Valdez and Orr would be expected to create about 37 runs over 511 PAs -- meaning Utley, if he plays every day the rest of the season -- would add about 45 runs to the Phillies' team total if he hits like he did in 2010.

Based on that current pace of 620 runs, that changes the expected total to 665 runs -- still well below 2010's 772, which ranked second in the NL.

It may not seem like a huge difference, but 45 runs would make a dramatic impact on the NL East race. Considering none of the Phillies' other regulars are necessarily sure bets to improve much on their current numbers, the Phillies are desperately counting on Utley to produce and remain healthy. If he does, I think that solidifies the Phillies as the NL East favorite right now.

Well, assuming Roy Halladay and company keep spinning all those zeroes.

(For more on Utley and the Phillies, check out Bill Baer's take at Crashburn Alley.)

SERIES OF THE WEEK

Boston at Cleveland, Monday-Wednesday

Monday (ESPN2, 7 p.m. ET): Clay Buchholz (4-3, 3.42) vs. Justin Masterson (5-2, 2.52)
Tuesday: Josh Beckett (3-1, 1.73) vs. Fausto Carmona (3-4, 4.76)
Wednesday: Jon Lester (6-1, 3.68) vs. Undecided

These teams met in the first week of the season in Cleveland for three cold, dreary days, but it was a series that set up Cleveland's magical run so far: the Indians swept the Red Sox, sparking an eight-game winning streak.

After a shaky April, Buchholz has looked like the pitcher from last season, with a 1.40 ERA, .202 average and one home run allowed in four starts. Beckett continues to roll, leading AL starters in ERA while ranking second to Justin Verlander in opponents' average and second to Dan Haren in OPS allowed.

For Cleveland, shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera is having a terrific season, raising his average to .302 after a 5-for-5 day with two home runs on Sunday. Shin-Soo Choo is also heating up, hitting .381 the past week. The Indians will be without DH Travis Hafner, placed on the DL on Friday with a strained oblique.

PITCHING MATCHUP OF THE WEEK

Friday: Tim Lincecum (4-4, 2.06) vs. Shaun Marcum (6-1, 2.37), Giants at Brewers

Marcum has allowed zero runs or one run in six of his 10 starts, including four of his past five. As predicted, his numbers have improved across the board since moving from Toronto to Milwaukee: More strikeouts, fewer hits and a lower home run rate. Lincecum is quietly having another terrific season, ranking fourth in the NL in ERA, second in innings and third in strikeouts. He's throwing more ground balls than ever this season, but maintaining one of the best strikeout rates in the majors. Not to state the obvious, but what an amazing pitcher.

THREE SWINGS

1. The first round of interleague play is completed and the National League held its own, earning a split of the 42 games. After winning the head-to-head tally in four of the first seven seasons of interleague play, the NL hasn't earned a season victory since 2003. The nadir was 2006, when the AL crushed the NL with a 154-98 record. The NL has fared better the past two seasons, going 114-137 in 2009 and 118-134 in 2010. Despite the split, there were still signs of the AL's superiority. It outscored the NL 187-158 and held the NL to zero runs or one run in 12 of the 42 games, compared to the NL's six games allowing one or fewer runs.

2. Several weeks ago, I wrote about Josh Collmenter picking up a victory in relief in his major league debut for the Diamondbacks. Collmenter wasn't really much of a prospect, but after pitching well in relief, the Diamondbacks moved him into the rotation and he's responded with 12 scoreless inning over two starts. Collmenter has a funky, over-the-top delivery that maybe hitters will figure out once they get better scouting reports. But right now he's throwing strikes (one walk in 26 innings, counting his relief outings) and he's provided a lift for an Arizona rotation dying for a homegrown prospect to make good. The Diamondbacks have won six straight to claw back to .500. Collmenter starts Tuesday at Colorado.

3. With so much negative injury news going on, good to hear that Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz should be activated on Monday for the Rangers. A month ago, the Rangers were 14-7, but they've gone just 10-16 since -- although they lost just two games off their lead in the mediocre AL West. The offense has been the culprit for the slide (boy does that refrain sound familiar in 2011) as the Rangers were scuffling along at a .233/.305/.325 mark in May before Sunday's 2-0 victory. After hitting 36 home runs April, they have 11 in May. There's an argument to made that the Rangers are actually a bad offensive team, as they have an .811 OPS at home and .650 on the road. That road OPS is 11th in the AL, barely higher than Seattle's. Hamilton and Cruz will help, but this could be a team that needs a hitter at the trade deadline, not a pitcher. Check out their individual road splits.

RANT OF THE WEEK

The All-Star ballot is out already?!?!? Isn't the game in July?!?!?! And they want us to vote already?!?!?! The season isn't even 50 games old!!!! It's crazy and just shows MLB is a bunch of money-grubbing business men who don't even care about the sanctity of the voting process!!!!

Of course I voted! Here's my May 22 ballot:

1B: Adrian Gonzalez (AL); Joey Votto (NL). With Albert Pujols' slow start, easy choices in both leagues.

2B: Ben Zobrist (AL); Rickie Weeks (NL). Whatever happened to Brad Emaus anyway? (I think Karabell will still vote for him, however.)

SS: Asdrubal Cabrera (AL); Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies (NL). I don't go straight "best season," so I'll give Tulo the slight edge over Starlin Castro and Jose Reyes.

3B: Kevin Youkilis (AL); Chipper Jones (NL). Watered-down NL field with injuries to Ryan Zimmerman and now David Wright.

C: Russell Martin (AL); Brian McCann (NL). Yadier Molina off to a hot start, and McCann to slow one (for him), but I'll take McCann.

DH: David Ortiz (AL). Why is this slot even on the ballot?

OF: Jose Bautista, Curtis Granderson and Matt Joyce (AL); Ryan Braun, Lance Berkman and Matt Kemp (NL). Only three AL outfielders have an OPS higher than .900 and eight above .800. Kemp gets the third nod over Matt Holliday since he plays center field.

P: Michael Pineda (AL); Roy Halladay (NL). What's an All-Star ballot if not allowing for at least one hometown vote? And don't tell me you wouldn't want to see this matchup! OK, OK ... pitchers aren't even on the ballot. (By the way, Mariners starters have gone nine straights starts of pitching at least seven innings and allowing two runs or fewer.)

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Despite receiving just three innings from starter Alex White, who was forced to depart with a hand injury, the Cleveland Indians managed a 5-4 victory on Friday over their in-state rival from Cincinnati. For the first time in recent memory, both the Indians and Reds look to play significant games into September, and possibly into October for the first time since 1995, giving new meaning to a series once seen as a mere interleague “regional rivalry game” formality.

The Indians' bullpen was up to the new importance and intensity of the series. After White departed, Frank Herrmann, Joe Smith, Tony Sipp, Vinnie Pestano and Chris Perez combined to pitch the final six frames, fanning three batters, walking none and allowing only one run on six mostly scattered base hits.


Consider yourself forgiven if some of those names are new to you. They're new to nearly all but the most devoted Indians fans -- that is, those who could stomach watching beyond the sixth inning over the past two seasons. Pestano is a rookie, Herrmann is in his second MLB season, Sipp in his third, and Perez -- although well-known to those who follow top relief prospects and enjoy high-velocity fastballs -- didn't make his name all that well-known to the fan at large until taking over Cleveland's closer role in 2010. Smith is the veteran of the group by default, with five years under his belt, but merely decent middle relievers tend to carry with them as much excitement as the name “Joe Smith” connotes.

So you should also consider yourself forgiven if you haven't noticed that the Indians' bullpen -- largely the group that pitched Friday night's game -- ranks in the top 10 in ERA, FIP (fielding-independent pitching) and WPA (win probability added). If anything, it goes to show just how inexpensive a quality bullpen can be. Last year's group, one of the worst by FIP, yet average by ERA and WPA, earned roughly $15 million dollars. (Hello and goodbye, Kerry Wood.) This season, middle man Chad Durbin was added for $800,000, while Perez earned $2.25 million in his first season under arbitration, but every other Indians reliever is earning approximately $400,000 as a pre-arbitration player, for a total under $6 million for seven players.

Of course, there isn't any guarantee of continued quality from such a young bullpen. However, there is room for some level of confidence. Perez has shown that his pedigree as a top prospect was not unfounded, striking out more than a batter per inning and posting an ERA under 3.00 in his time with Cleveland. Smith has been consistently good for five straight years. Sipp has a powerful fastball/slider combination, and although he may struggle with his control at times, his stuff has the potential to overmatch MLB hitters at any time. The problem for the Indians, though, projects to be the bridge to the eighth or ninth more than the late innings themselves.

Even if this rough-and-tumble relief crew can keep it together, will there be leads to hold? The offense has been decimated recently by injuries to Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner. Perhaps one injury could be hidden, but the second will surely prove to be tough to handle, as the presence of Shelley Duncan, the ultimate "Quad-A player," in the Indians' lineup as DH indicates. The emergence of Michael Brantley should make the Indians' outfield passable in Sizemore's absence, but substituting a replacement-level DH for Pronk will almost certainly take the punch out of Cleveland's lineup.

With the way the run-prevention unit has performed so far -- only Oakland has allowed significantly fewer runs in the league -- Cleveland should be fine if it can just get an average performance out of the guys on hand. Ideally, Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Santana can pick up the slack and carry the Tribe for the time being, as the Indians have somehow managed to rank second in the AL in runs scored despite sub-.400 slugging percentages out of the two hitters most pundits expected to carry much of Cleveland's offensive burden this year.

Santana and Choo both chipped in for the Indians on Friday night, and Choo set up the winning run by tripling in the eighth, but they also got key contributions from Duncan as well as speedster Ezequiel Carrera -- the man called up to take Pronk's place, and the man who plinked the game-winning bunt up the first-base line to plate Choo.

With yet another loss from the Tigers, the Indians now have a six-game lead in the AL Central and a clear fast track to the playoffs. Although the injuries to the offense present some adversity, the Indians have received high-quality effort from unlikely sources all season long. The bullpen and starting rotation will have to stay solid until the cavalry comes over the hill, but if the first month and a half of the season tells us anything, this group of no-names is up to the challenge.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Jack Moore writes general baseball for FanGraphs, fantasy baseball for RotoHardball, and blogs the Brewers at Disciples of Uecker for the SweetSpot network. You can follow him on Twitter.

The Indians are doing the right thing by being cautious with Grady Sizemore, placing him on the 15-day DL even though an MRI revealed his sore knee is nothing more than a bruised kneecap.

Reading through some of the comments on the news story, it's clear that most fans still don't believe in the Indians, even though they ranked second in this week's Power Rankings. And the timing for Sizemore's DL stint isn't great: Cleveland begins a stretch where it plays at Kansas City, at the White Sox, Cincinnati, Boston, at Tampa Bay, at Toronto, Texas, Minnesota, at the Yankees and at Detroit over its next 30 games. Let's hope Sizemore will be back after two weeks of rest.

The team recalled Travis Buck, who will likely platoon in left field with Shelley Duncan, with Michael Brantley moving over to center. Buck was tearing up Triple-A with a .333/.432/.583 line, but he hasn't hit in the majors since performing well with the A's as a rookie in 2007. Still, there are worse guys to have ready at your disposal.

Like others, I'm a little skeptical about the Indians. They're fourth in the AL in run prevention and their starters have a 3.56 ERA despite ranking 12th in the AL in strikeouts. Can they keep up that run prevention despite the relatively low strikeout rate? That's the big question. That said, here are five reasons I still like the Indians.

1. Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Santana will hit much better. Choo's OPS is .655 and Santana's .727. I still believe both will be up around .850 by season's end.

2. Michael Brantley is a good player. Mickey's son is hitting .298 with a .372 on-base percentage. He's doing what he did in the minors -- he puts the ball in play and draws just enough walks to produce a good OBP.

3. The pitching is better than people think. The staff may not rank high in strikeout rate, but it also doesn't walk many batters. Cleveland's 2.10 strikeout-to-walk ratio is fifth in the AL.

4. Justin Masterson is for real. He's allowed three runs or fewer in seven of his eight starts, his strikeout rate is creeping up while maintaining his ground ball rate and he's given up just one home run. He still has a huge left/right split (.333 versus lefties, .148 versus righties) that prevents him from being a true ace, but he's developing into a solid No. 2.

5. It's the AL Central! Eighty-five wins may still be enough to win this division.

(Read more about the Indians and a look back at Len Barker's perfect game at our SweetSpot affiliate, It's Pronounced "Lajaway.")