SweetSpot: Stephen Strasburg
Kernels of Wisdom: Week in review
May, 26, 2012
May 26
4:30
PM ET
By Doug Kern, ESPN Stats & Info | ESPN.com
- Nelson Cruz's seventh-inning grand slam on Friday night capped off an eight-RBI performance as the Rangers downed Toronto 14-3. Or should we say, another eight-RBI performance. Cruz had one last season (July 22, also against Toronto). Combined with Josh Hamilton's four-homer game earlier in the month, the last three eight-RBI performances have all been posted by Rangers.
- Oakland got one-hit again on Tuesday, this time by the Angels and C.J. Wilson. Last Saturday they had already joined Minnesota and Pittsburgh as the only teams to get no-hit or one-hit twice this season. Not a single team had it happen three times in 2011. The Athletics have done it three times before Memorial Day.
- The Indians' Shin-Soo Choo led off Thursday night's game against Detroit with a solo home run. It was not just Cleveland's first leadoff homer this season, it was its first home run in the first inning this season. The Indians were the last team to not have a first-inning home run yet in 2012.
- The focus is always on Stephen Strasburg when he pitches. Last Sunday, however, it was on his hitting. Strasburg not only hit the second home run by a pitcher this season, he also singled and scored another run before being replaced. It had been more than five years since a pitcher had a perfect, multi-hit day at the plate, scored at least twice and chipped in a home run. Kip Wells did it for the Cardinals on April 19, 2007. It was a first in Nationals/Expos franchise history. Mike Leake of the Reds, by the way, hit the third pitcher home run of the year on Monday.
- Dan Haren threw a complete-game shutout Thursday against the Mariners. It was the latest in a series of impressive strikeout games as Haren racked up 14 of them (including Alex Liddi four times). But perhaps the most impressive part? Haren didn't walk a single batter.
It's the most strikeouts to be recorded in a zero-walk shutout since Erik Bedard racked up 15 against the Rangers on July 7, 2007. And it's a first (shutout with 14-plus strikeouts and no walks) in Angels franchise history. - Giancarlo Stanton’s grand slam on Monday, off Jamie Moyer, left the bat at 133 mph (courtesy ESPN's Home Run Tracker team) and knocked out part of the video board beyond the left-field seats. Stanton joins Brandon Inge as the only players this season with multiple slams.
It was Stanton's fourth career slam. In 24 seasons in the majors, Moyer has allowed only eight. The last on Aug. 26, 2004, to Abraham Nunez of the Royals. - Since the start of 2010, the Marlins now lead the National League in grand slams hit; Monday’s was their 12th (one more than the Cardinals, Reds, and Braves).
- The Cubs, already having enough trouble scoring runs (28th out of 30 teams), posted 10 hits on Friday against the Pirates. They failed to score a single run. All the hits were singles, and they went 0-for-12 with runners in scoring position.
They're the only team this year to reach double digits in hits and still get shut out. It happened just once in 2011 (June 18, by the Dodgers). The Cubs have had one other such game in the past 20 years (June 22, 2009, at Atlanta).
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Jason Miller/US PresswireShin-Soo Choo hopes to keep getting the Indians off to soaring starts.
Jason Miller/US PresswireShin-Soo Choo hopes to keep getting the Indians off to soaring starts.
Tuesday night was an angry one for quite a few players, managers and umpires, but Mark Simon and I were in good moods to chronicle it all for Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast!
1. Washington Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg had a miserable outing Tuesday, and then when his manager told the world what might have contributed, it got worse.
2. Toronto Blue Jays slugger Brett Lawrie lost his cool in the ninth inning Tuesday, and look for the Blue Jays to be without his services for a while. Mark says Lawrie needs help.
3. The Angels found a fall guy for the struggles of Albert Pujols, but is manager Mike Scioscia safe?
4. The Mets are in the news for David Wright being pulled from a game, and also a topic for an emailer, as well as Atlanta’s offense and success for certain days of the week.
5. Wednesday’s schedule features the ESPN matchup of Clay Buchholz and Jeremy Hellickson, a pair of right-handers that the metrics do not favor.
So download and listen to Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast, because we’re never removed early for the fear of retaliation.
1. Washington Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg had a miserable outing Tuesday, and then when his manager told the world what might have contributed, it got worse.
2. Toronto Blue Jays slugger Brett Lawrie lost his cool in the ninth inning Tuesday, and look for the Blue Jays to be without his services for a while. Mark says Lawrie needs help.
3. The Angels found a fall guy for the struggles of Albert Pujols, but is manager Mike Scioscia safe?
4. The Mets are in the news for David Wright being pulled from a game, and also a topic for an emailer, as well as Atlanta’s offense and success for certain days of the week.
5. Wednesday’s schedule features the ESPN matchup of Clay Buchholz and Jeremy Hellickson, a pair of right-handers that the metrics do not favor.
So download and listen to Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast, because we’re never removed early for the fear of retaliation.
Eric Karabell and Keith Law were your hosts on Tuesday's Baseball Today podcast 
and they talked about baseball stuff.
1. Matt Kemp didn't want to go on the DL, but it's better to have him rest than play at half speed. But is Andre Ethier really going to play some center field?
2. Bryce Harper hit his first home run. The boys discuss.
3. When do you give up on your team having a chance at the playoffs?
4. Will Stephen Strasburg pitch enough innings to have a chance at winning the Cy Young Award?
5. Keith discusses the release of his first mock draft.
All that and more on Tuesday's big show!
and they talked about baseball stuff.
1. Matt Kemp didn't want to go on the DL, but it's better to have him rest than play at half speed. But is Andre Ethier really going to play some center field?
2. Bryce Harper hit his first home run. The boys discuss.
3. When do you give up on your team having a chance at the playoffs?
4. Will Stephen Strasburg pitch enough innings to have a chance at winning the Cy Young Award?
5. Keith discusses the release of his first mock draft.
All that and more on Tuesday's big show!
How to limit Stephen Strasburg's innings
May, 10, 2012
May 10
4:51
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Entering Thursday's start against the Pirates, Stephen Strasburg has made six starts and pitched 38 innings. He's 2-0 with a 1.66 ERA, has the highest fastball velocity among starters in the major leagues, throws strikes and is on the short list of the best pitchers in baseball.
Of course, he's reportedly on a 160-inning limit in his first full year back from Tommy John surgery. At his current rate of 6.3 innings per start, he'll reach 160 innings in his 26th start. That means shutting him down in late August and missing his final six or seven starts.
The problem, of course, is that the Nationals are a good bet to still be in a heated NL East pennant race in late August. How do you tell your season-ticket holders and your fans that you're shutting down your best player? That you're decreasing your chances of winning? You can't do it. Isn't the goal to win? It's easy for GM Mike Rizzo to say in March or April that the club wants to limit Strasburg's workload; it's a different story if the team is a game out of first place on Sept. 15.
But it's certainly understandable why the team wants to play it as safe as possible, although I'm not sure there's evidence that pitching 160 innings is any "safer" than 180 or 200 or 220. That's another topic. For now, let's stick to the thesis that Strasburg should pitch 160 innings. Here's my idea of how to do it while still keeping him available down the stretch.
When Chien-Ming Wang returns from the DL (he made his fourth rehab start on Wednesday night), use Wang as a spot starter of sorts. The Nationals have indicated they don't want to do this, that they'd prefer to keep Strasburg pitching every fifth game. There are two options here: You could simply sub in Wang for Strasburg from time to time, say one start per month. Or you could use Wang to push Strasburg back a day or two every so often.
For example, if Strasburg pitches every fifth game, he'd be scheduled to go May 15 (Padres), May 20 (Orioles) and May 25 (Braves). If you gave Wang the May 20 start against Baltimore, you could push Strasburg back to May 21 or May 22, when the Nationals play division rival Philadelphia. Or instead of having Strasburg face the Mets on June 7, use Wang and push Strasburg back a day to face a much tougher Red Sox lineup. If done in the right fashion, you could actually exploit Strasburg to make sure he faces tougher opponents or more division games.
You need a flexible manager, but you can manipulate a six-man rotation like this fairly easily. You could still keep veterans Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson pitching every fifth day, while using Wang to save innings with young arms Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann and Ross Detwiler. The risk is that the starters wouldn't keep the same routine or have the same number of rest days between starts, but the possible reward is that your rotation would be less fatigued heading into September. And remember, Strasburg, Zimmermann and Detwiler have never come close to 180 innings, let alone 200, in a season. Strasburg isn't the only starter where innings could be an issue.
OK, maybe you don't want to jump starts around like that. Too complicated. You can still push Strasburg deeper into the season pretty easily. For example, sticking to the every-fifth-game rule, you could skip the following starts:
May 15 (Padres)
July 5 (Giants, final start before All-Star break)
Make him the fifth starter coming out of the break, meaning he doesn't start again until July 17, and then skip these starts:
Aug. 7 (Astros)
Sept. 4 (Cubs)
Sept. 21 (Brewers)
That would give him 20 more starts, on top of the six he's already made, heading into the final series of the season ... against the Phillies. If the Nats need him, they could stretch him to a 27th start. This way, they'd keep him active through September, and thanks to the long break around the All-Star Game, they'd have to "skip" him only four times.
And if the Nationals make the playoffs ... well ... you have to go for it, right?
Of course, he's reportedly on a 160-inning limit in his first full year back from Tommy John surgery. At his current rate of 6.3 innings per start, he'll reach 160 innings in his 26th start. That means shutting him down in late August and missing his final six or seven starts.
The problem, of course, is that the Nationals are a good bet to still be in a heated NL East pennant race in late August. How do you tell your season-ticket holders and your fans that you're shutting down your best player? That you're decreasing your chances of winning? You can't do it. Isn't the goal to win? It's easy for GM Mike Rizzo to say in March or April that the club wants to limit Strasburg's workload; it's a different story if the team is a game out of first place on Sept. 15.
But it's certainly understandable why the team wants to play it as safe as possible, although I'm not sure there's evidence that pitching 160 innings is any "safer" than 180 or 200 or 220. That's another topic. For now, let's stick to the thesis that Strasburg should pitch 160 innings. Here's my idea of how to do it while still keeping him available down the stretch.
When Chien-Ming Wang returns from the DL (he made his fourth rehab start on Wednesday night), use Wang as a spot starter of sorts. The Nationals have indicated they don't want to do this, that they'd prefer to keep Strasburg pitching every fifth game. There are two options here: You could simply sub in Wang for Strasburg from time to time, say one start per month. Or you could use Wang to push Strasburg back a day or two every so often.
For example, if Strasburg pitches every fifth game, he'd be scheduled to go May 15 (Padres), May 20 (Orioles) and May 25 (Braves). If you gave Wang the May 20 start against Baltimore, you could push Strasburg back to May 21 or May 22, when the Nationals play division rival Philadelphia. Or instead of having Strasburg face the Mets on June 7, use Wang and push Strasburg back a day to face a much tougher Red Sox lineup. If done in the right fashion, you could actually exploit Strasburg to make sure he faces tougher opponents or more division games.
You need a flexible manager, but you can manipulate a six-man rotation like this fairly easily. You could still keep veterans Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson pitching every fifth day, while using Wang to save innings with young arms Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann and Ross Detwiler. The risk is that the starters wouldn't keep the same routine or have the same number of rest days between starts, but the possible reward is that your rotation would be less fatigued heading into September. And remember, Strasburg, Zimmermann and Detwiler have never come close to 180 innings, let alone 200, in a season. Strasburg isn't the only starter where innings could be an issue.
OK, maybe you don't want to jump starts around like that. Too complicated. You can still push Strasburg deeper into the season pretty easily. For example, sticking to the every-fifth-game rule, you could skip the following starts:
May 15 (Padres)
July 5 (Giants, final start before All-Star break)
Make him the fifth starter coming out of the break, meaning he doesn't start again until July 17, and then skip these starts:
Aug. 7 (Astros)
Sept. 4 (Cubs)
Sept. 21 (Brewers)
That would give him 20 more starts, on top of the six he's already made, heading into the final series of the season ... against the Phillies. If the Nats need him, they could stretch him to a 27th start. This way, they'd keep him active through September, and thanks to the long break around the All-Star Game, they'd have to "skip" him only four times.
And if the Nationals make the playoffs ... well ... you have to go for it, right?
Podcast: Most overrated pitcher in baseball
May, 10, 2012
May 10
1:59
PM ET
By
Eric Karabell | ESPN.com
SweetSpot blogger Dave Schoenfield and I argued so much on Thursday’s Baseball Today podcast that fisticuffs nearly ensued! OK, that last part isn’t true, but it was fun!
1. David Robertson blows up in the ninth inning Wednesday, which some say means he can only pitch in a setup role. We can’t begin to describe how ridiculous that is.
2. Meanwhile, Josh Beckett is out playing golf, eating chicken and drinking beer. Talk about a story that isn’t a story ... until Dave calls him the most overrated pitcher of the past decade. True or false?
3. Jake Peavy is pitching like a star and Tim Lincecum is not. Which right-hander would you choose for the rest of the season?
4. Our emailers have thoughts about ripping the surprising starts for the Baltimores and Clevelands of baseball, as well as schedule strength for the last-place Red Sox and Phillies.
5. On Thursday’s schedule we’ll get an exciting matchup in the Bronx as well as Nationals stud Stephen Strasburg on the hill, but there’s a certain AL Central pitcher that really needs to step up!
So download and listen to Thursday’s energetic Baseball Today podcast, and learn why you never leave a baseball game early. Ever.
1. David Robertson blows up in the ninth inning Wednesday, which some say means he can only pitch in a setup role. We can’t begin to describe how ridiculous that is.
2. Meanwhile, Josh Beckett is out playing golf, eating chicken and drinking beer. Talk about a story that isn’t a story ... until Dave calls him the most overrated pitcher of the past decade. True or false?
3. Jake Peavy is pitching like a star and Tim Lincecum is not. Which right-hander would you choose for the rest of the season?
4. Our emailers have thoughts about ripping the surprising starts for the Baltimores and Clevelands of baseball, as well as schedule strength for the last-place Red Sox and Phillies.
5. On Thursday’s schedule we’ll get an exciting matchup in the Bronx as well as Nationals stud Stephen Strasburg on the hill, but there’s a certain AL Central pitcher that really needs to step up!
So download and listen to Thursday’s energetic Baseball Today podcast, and learn why you never leave a baseball game early. Ever.
Yep, just another boring April of baseball where nothing exciting happened. We only had one of the greatest April performances of all time. We had a perfect game. We saw the Red Sox blow a 9-0 lead at home to the Yankees -- and lose by six runs. We saw one of the best hitters of all time turn into one of the worst players in the game, at least for a month. We saw pitchers dominate -- 20 starters have an ERA under 2.00. We saw a 19-year-old phenom make his major league debut. We saw a venerable veteran hit .389 with 37 hits. To cap it off, on the final day of the month we saw Ryan Braun hit three home runs out of the Grand Canyon -- aka, Petco Park.
Braun is the first player to hit three home runs at Petco, no mean feat considering it's something like 748 feet to the power alleys. As impressive as that achievement is, it doesn't quite land Braun on our all-April All-Star team.
C: Yadier Molina, Cardinals (.316/.369/.592, 4 HR, 15 RBIs)
Molina is proving last season's power surge was no fluke as he ripped out nine doubles and four home runs in April. He's nailed 43 percent of basestealers and the Cardinals have a 2.61 staff ERA. Terms like team leader are thrown out a bit loosely, but there's little doubt Molina is the heart and soul of the Cards. If not for Matt Kemp, you could make a case for Molina as April's MVP.
1B: Bryan LaHair, Cubs (.390/.470/.780, 5 HR, 14 RBIs)
One of the feel-good stories of the month, the 29-year-old minor league veteran was given the first base job only as a placeholder for prospect Anthony Rizzo. He may not give it up quite so easily. Thirteen of his 23 hits have been for extra bases and, incredibly, he's batting .676 when not striking out. Yeah, yeah ... that impossible to keep up, of course. Still, he could make for some interesting trade bait for a team in a pennant looking for some power at first base. (Yes, we mean you, Los Angeles Dodgers.)
AROUND THE SWEETSPOT NETWORK
Mets Today
R.A. Dickey had his good knuckler, and was remarkably efficient. He had only one bad inning, and it's hard to describe it as "bad" except for the fact that the Astros scored three runs in that frame. It took two bloops and a broken bat bleeding grounder to score the 'stros first run in the sixth. Moments later came the bomb that put Houston ahead by three. All of Dickey's pitches other than the gopher ball were tough to hit, and were poorly struck, but they found places to land just beyond the reach of fielders' gloves. There wasn't much else Dickey could do -- sometimes that's the way the ball bounces, so to speak.
For the rest of this blog post, click here.
Nationals Baseball
On one hand, that was a really ugly road trip. On the other, if you told me going in that Ryan Zimmerman would be out for the entire thing, I would have taken 2-4. Plus they are still in first place and about to face one of the worst pitching teams in the NL in Arizona; maybe that'll be a little bit of a cure. For those down in the dumps think of it this way: The Nats were getting lucky at the end of games for a while now. The luck has evened out a bit. The team is still 14-8 (100+ win pace). This weekend didn't suddenly make the Nats a non-contender.
For the rest of this blog post, click here.
Halos Daily
You may remember from my Week 1 preview before the season started that I compared the start of the baseball season, as well as the new big-ticket Angels additions, to being a kid on Christmas morning anticipating a bounty of Christmas treasures. A mere three weeks later, the 2012 Angels season has been anything but a magical Christmas morning. Instead it's more like that one Christmas where you got deodorant and a copy of Atlas Shrugged.
For the rest of this blog post, click here.
Most impressively: 24 runs in 23 games. Since 1950, only 11 times has a player scored 140 runs in a season. Only one of those -- Jeff Bagwell in 2000 -- scored 150 runs. If Kinsler can maintain that .400 OBP -- 45 points higher than last season -- he may have a shot.
3B: David Wright, Mets (.389/.494/.569, 3 HR, 14 RBIs)
Last season was a rough one for third basemen, as several of the top guys landed on the DL. Things got so bad that Scott Rolen made the NL All-Star team. It's a different story in 2012, as six regulars are hitting over .300, Miguel Cabrera is hitting .298 with power and Chase Headley is off to a terrific start for the Padres. But Wright kept his OBP over .500 until the final day of April. Cardinals fans will point to David Freese's 20 RBIs, but Wright's big lead in walks (16 to four) gives him the edge.
SS: Derek Jeter, Yankees (.394/.437/.585, 4 HR, 13 RBIs)
So much for needing a rest. Jeter played every game this month (four starts at DH) and led the majors with 37 hits. His 10 extra-base hits are already nearly one-third of the 34 he punched out a year ago. The range at shortstop remains problematic, but nobody seems to care right now.
LF: Josh Hamilton, Rangers (.395/.438/.744, 9 HR, 25 RBIs
OK, maybe I cheated a little bit here: Hamilton has played twice as many innings in center in left. Sorry, Josh Willingham.
CF: Matt Kemp, Dodgers (.417/.490/.893, 12 HR, 25 RBIs)
We bow down to your greatness, Mr. Kemp, and can't wait to see what you do in May.
RF: Corey Hart, Brewers (.270/.360/.635, 6 HR, 13 RBIs
Not bad for a guy who had knee surgery in early March and wasn't expected to be ready for the start of the season.
DH: David Ortiz, Red Sox (.405/.457/.726, 6 HR, 20 RBIs)
Remember April and May of 2009, when Big Papi hit .185 with one home run? "Trust me, I am not finished," Ortiz said in early June of that year. Many Red Sox fans wanted the club to release him. A Boston columnist called for the club to do so. Maybe it did come close to doing so.
P: Jake Peavy, White Sox (3-1, 1.67, 37.2 IP, 21 H, 5 BB, 33 SO
My pitcher of the month for April, it's great to see Peavy healthy and slinging again. He put together a terrific first five starts, in part because had to face Boston, Texas, Detroit and Baltimore in four of those games.
P: Stephen Strasburg, Nationals (2-0, 1.13, 32 IP, 22 H, 6 BB, 34 SO
He's allowed four runs in five starts ... and has two victories. Please explain to your friends why wins are overrated. He's been absolutely dominant, hasn't allowed a home run and with the Nationals leading the NL East, the speculation has already heated about what the club will do about Strasburg's supposed innings limit if the club is in the pennant race in September. We'll worry about that then; for now, let's enjoy a master at work.
RP: Aroldis Chapman, Reds (2-0, 0.00, 12.1 IP, 5 H, 4 BB, 21 SO)
He's gotten 37 outs -- so 57 percent of his outs have come via the strikeout. It leaves one to wonder: How would he do starting? Please, Dusty, give us the chance to find out.
Guy I wanted to put on the team: Jose Altuve, Astros (.360/.404/.547)
The little guy can flat rake. Enjoy, Astros fans.
Strikeouts don't mean everything award: Derek Lowe, Indians
Lowe is 4-1 with a 2.27 ERA even though he has just nine strikeouts in five starts.
Most un-All-Star: Albert Pujols, Angels (.217/.265/.304, 0 HR, 4 RBIs)
Sorry, with $240 million comes more pressure, more scrutiny and expectations that maybe you'll hit one or two home runs per month. Pujols was arguably the worst player in baseball in April. Who would have thought we'd ever hear such words?
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Denis Poroy/Getty ImagesRyan Braun hits his fourth-inning home run -- his first of three big blasts.Weekend preview: Spotlight on young Ps
April, 20, 2012
Apr 20
10:00
AM ET
By Justin Havens, ESPN Stats & Information | ESPN.com
Pitcher No. 1: Matt Moore (Rays vs. Twins, Friday)
After blowing through the competition in a small sample spanning the end of the regular season and postseason last year, Matt Moore entered the 2012 season with a great deal of hype. However, he’s going to have to harness his stuff if he’s going to reach his ceiling; Moore is throwing a very high percentage of his pitches "up" in the zone ... and it’s not surprising he’s had issues with the long ball because of that.
Pitcher No. 2: Stephen Strasburg (Nationals vs. Marlins, Saturday)
Through two starts this season, the trend of Strasburg's velocity dipping has continued. When he first came up, he succeeded with fastballs approaching 100 mph and a changeup around 90.
However, since his return from Tommy John surgery, he seems to be evolving into more of a "pitcher." His fastball velocity is down over 2 mph, but his changeup is also down nearly the exact same amount, keeping the separation between the two pitches.
Pitcher No. 3: Brian Matusz (Orioles at Angels, Friday)
It has been a remarkable fall-from-grace for Orioles lefty Brian Matusz, the fourth overall pick in the 2008 draft -- ahead of players like Buster Posey, Brett Lawrie and Ike Davis and one spot behind Eric Hosmer. Unfortunately, the wheels have completely come off for Matusz, who has not won a game since June 6, 2011. When Matusz takes the mound this weekend, he will attempt to avoid going 0-12 over a 13-start stretch. The last pitcher to do that was Edgar Gonzalez from 2004-06.
Matusz has not gone seven innings in a start since Sept. 27, 2010. Part of the reason for his extended slump has been a lack of life on his fastball. After his average fastball velocity bottomed out at 86.6 mph in June of last season, it has steadily risen (to 90.7 so far in April after 89.0 in August and 89.8 in September). Unfortunately, it’s still not generating much success.
Pitcher No. 4: Kyle Drabek (Blue Jays at Royals, Friday)
Not long ago, Drabek was the centerpiece of the trade that sent Roy Halladay to Philadelphia. Last season, however, Drabek completely fell apart, posting one of the highest walk rates in baseball and generally inefficient with his pitches. While the small sample size caveat applies, he looks like a completely different pitcher so far. What has been the difference? Pitching effectively with his fastball.
After blowing through the competition in a small sample spanning the end of the regular season and postseason last year, Matt Moore entered the 2012 season with a great deal of hype. However, he’s going to have to harness his stuff if he’s going to reach his ceiling; Moore is throwing a very high percentage of his pitches "up" in the zone ... and it’s not surprising he’s had issues with the long ball because of that.
Pitcher No. 2: Stephen Strasburg (Nationals vs. Marlins, Saturday)
Through two starts this season, the trend of Strasburg's velocity dipping has continued. When he first came up, he succeeded with fastballs approaching 100 mph and a changeup around 90.
However, since his return from Tommy John surgery, he seems to be evolving into more of a "pitcher." His fastball velocity is down over 2 mph, but his changeup is also down nearly the exact same amount, keeping the separation between the two pitches.
Pitcher No. 3: Brian Matusz (Orioles at Angels, Friday)
It has been a remarkable fall-from-grace for Orioles lefty Brian Matusz, the fourth overall pick in the 2008 draft -- ahead of players like Buster Posey, Brett Lawrie and Ike Davis and one spot behind Eric Hosmer. Unfortunately, the wheels have completely come off for Matusz, who has not won a game since June 6, 2011. When Matusz takes the mound this weekend, he will attempt to avoid going 0-12 over a 13-start stretch. The last pitcher to do that was Edgar Gonzalez from 2004-06.
Matusz has not gone seven innings in a start since Sept. 27, 2010. Part of the reason for his extended slump has been a lack of life on his fastball. After his average fastball velocity bottomed out at 86.6 mph in June of last season, it has steadily risen (to 90.7 so far in April after 89.0 in August and 89.8 in September). Unfortunately, it’s still not generating much success.
Pitcher No. 4: Kyle Drabek (Blue Jays at Royals, Friday)
Not long ago, Drabek was the centerpiece of the trade that sent Roy Halladay to Philadelphia. Last season, however, Drabek completely fell apart, posting one of the highest walk rates in baseball and generally inefficient with his pitches. While the small sample size caveat applies, he looks like a completely different pitcher so far. What has been the difference? Pitching effectively with his fastball.
Poll: How would you handle Strasburg?
April, 19, 2012
Apr 19
2:15
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Debby Wong/US PresswireThe Nationals have indicated they will limit right-hander Stephen Strasburg to somewhere between 160 and 180 innings this season.Colleague Jim Bowden has a piece today about five managers on the hot seat
and mentions Davey Johnson, not so much because his job is in jeopardy (the Nationals are 10-3) but because he'll eventually have to deal with the possible innings limitation placed on Stephen Strasburg.
As Jim writes, Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo has hinted that Strasburg will be held to 160 to 180 innings this year, even if the club is in a pennant race or reaches the playoffs. Furthermore, he won't skip starts or have Strasburg's pitch counts limited (beyond normal levels) during games. That leaves a likelihood that Strasburg will be shut down in early September. If he averages just six innings over 28 starts, that's 168 innings.
- This is a franchise that has been terrible since moving to Washington, never finishing over .500 in seven seasons. Attendance has fallen from 2.73 million in 2005 to 1.94 million in 2011. A playoff run -- and postseason appearance -- would obviously be a huge boost to not only 2012 attendance but future years as well (the year-after effect).
- You play to win now. Could you really sit your best starter if you make the postseason? Sure, the Nationals might have a bright future with all their young talent, but no future is guaranteed.
- What are the ethical obligation the Nationals have to ensure Strasburg's long-term health?
- Is there even any guarantee that Strasburg will have better health down the road if he pitches fewer innings this season?
A similar example I can think of is Kerry Wood's rookie season with the Cubs in 1998. Wood had pitched 166.1 innings with the Cubs (and five more in Triple-A), although things were a little different then and he ran up some big pitch counts -- eight starts of 120-plus pitches. After throwing 133 pitches in a 16-strikeout performance against the Reds on Aug. 26 and then 116 five days later, the Cubs shut down Wood the rest of the regular season because of a sore elbow.
They made the playoffs anyway, defeating the Giants in a one-game tiebreaker to win the wild card. Despite losing the first two games of the Division Series to the Braves, manager Jim Riggleman started Wood in Game 3. He pitched five innings, threw 97 pitches and left trailing 1-0. The following spring, the elbow went.
Wood doesn't blame Riggleman. "My elbow was going to go," Wood told the Washington Post in 2010. "If it didn't go with [Riggleman] it would've gone with someone else. It was the way I was throwing, the stuff I had, the torque I was generating. It was a matter of time."
Riggleman was Strasburg's first manager in the major leagues. He answered Kerry Wood questions for years. "If I had it to do over, I would do it differently," he told the Post. "And we probably wouldn't have gotten to the playoffs. If I had known what was going to happen, I wouldn't have pitched him that much, period. But I would have caught a lot of grief. I caught a lot of grief as it was. We lost a lot of games where [Wood] came out after five or six innings. I was getting comments like, 'C'mon, Riggs, leave him in.'"
The bigger issue, of course, is why the Cubs brought Wood back to start a playoff game when a comeback would have been unlikely. (They had to win three in a row against the mighty Braves.) But you can see why the heat will be on Davey Johnson: Use Strasburg and you might make the playoffs or maybe even win the World Series; don't use him and the 2012 Washington Nationals may just be a memory in the record books.
What do you do?
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.
Podcast: Verlander, Strasburg, pitch counts
April, 17, 2012
Apr 17
2:30
PM ET
By
Eric Karabell | ESPN.com
On Tuesday’s Baseball Today podcast I’m joined by Keith Law, and starting pitching is clearly on our minds from Monday night.
1. Tim Lincecum is not off to a very good start, but is there truly cause for concern? And what does Lincecum’s future have to do with Madison Bumgarner’s new contract?
2. Justin Verlander tossed a whole lotta pitches to win Monday’s game, but at least he earned his first win! Keith talks pitch counts and what they mean.
3. An emailer asks about pitch counts for younger fellows like Stephen Strasburg, and whether they are necessary. Also, why were the stands so empty for Strasburg’s Monday outing?
4. Speaking of the fans, which teams have the best ones? Our answer might surprise you.
5. We take a closer look at Tuesday’s schedule, including the real reason why people should be watching the Miami Marlins, plus the old guy in Coors Field and why is Tyson Ross a starter?
So download and listen to Tuesday’s Baseball Today podcast. There was bias, but no bias cat. Meow.
1. Tim Lincecum is not off to a very good start, but is there truly cause for concern? And what does Lincecum’s future have to do with Madison Bumgarner’s new contract?
2. Justin Verlander tossed a whole lotta pitches to win Monday’s game, but at least he earned his first win! Keith talks pitch counts and what they mean.
3. An emailer asks about pitch counts for younger fellows like Stephen Strasburg, and whether they are necessary. Also, why were the stands so empty for Strasburg’s Monday outing?
4. Speaking of the fans, which teams have the best ones? Our answer might surprise you.
5. We take a closer look at Tuesday’s schedule, including the real reason why people should be watching the Miami Marlins, plus the old guy in Coors Field and why is Tyson Ross a starter?
So download and listen to Tuesday’s Baseball Today podcast. There was bias, but no bias cat. Meow.
At first blush, Stephen Strasburg’s overpowering start for the Washington Nationals might seem like good news for a club trying to get itself taken every bit as seriously as the Miami Marlins in the National League East’s “Division of Death” this season. But two outstanding starts into the season, Strasburg’s work brings up a couple of interesting things about this Nats club that bear watching as we head deeper into the 2012 season.
First, there’s the question of his workload. In the broad strokes, worrying about this now would definitely qualify as a case of too much, too soon. Even if Strasburg is limited to starting in a five-man rotation, in which nobody’s turn gets skipped because of scheduled days off, his total starts and innings are going to pile up. Even if Strasburg gets the odd extra day of rest between turns, he’s going to have around 17 starts by the All-Star break. As a 23-year-old. Coming back from elbow surgery. With the second half to look forward to. If he fends off a (perhaps unwanted) All-Star Game invite, he’d be on turn to lead off the rotation in the second half, same as the first.
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Baseball Time in Arlington
So, if I'm reading this correctly, Ian Kinsler's deal is either five years and $75 millon, or six years and $80 million. If true, the sixth year is a veritable no-brainer. The odd thing here, though, is the front-loading of the deal, which is relatively unusual if you rifle through many of the guaranteed deals -- high-value or otherwise -- in baseball right now.
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Walkoff Woodward
For the second straight game on Justin Verlander Day, the Tigers took a 2-0 lead into the ninth inning behind eight strong from their ace. This time, instead of Jose Valverde, it was Verlander who would attempt to close it out, because he needed just 81 pitches to get there. Unfortunately, Verlander wasn't himself in the ninth.
For the rest of this blog post, click here.
Nationals Baseball
Sorry if you're looking for strong opinions from me just yet. It's still too early to make any real judgements on how people are performing. The batters are working on 20 ABs, the starters on one start, and the relief pitchers on 3 appearences. That's just too little data to say anything for sure.
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But the real problem about the ideal of watching the kid’s workload and giving all due care to the logistical tedium of managing top talent carefully is where it might run up against the Nats’ bid for contention. That might sound silly to talk about in April, but various projection tools have the Nationals winning 80 to 82 games, and perhaps nobody in the NL East reaches 90. That makes the Nats a contender, on paper or in projections, admittedly, but a team that will be in the running.
Now, what does that mean for how they manage their best starter’s workload down the stretch? Is a buzzer going to go off when Strasburg makes his 24th start at the end of August, and general manager Mike Rizzo rings up Davey in the dugout and says, “Bad news, skip, the kid’s got just two starts left this year”? An incredulous Johnson might look at the standings and see that his team’s just four out and wonder what the point of the first five months was if you have to pull up and watch the Braves or Phillies or Marlins race on ahead.
That becomes even more difficult to swallow with the new two-wild-card setup for the postseason -- if you’re the Nats, and you might squeak into a one-game playoff to move into the NL Division Series, wouldn’t you feel pretty confident about your chances if you’ve got Strasburg in the fold?
Happily for the Nats, Johnson has a roster set up with more than a few compensations to deal with a young ace who’s going to have to be handled carefully early in the season, so maybe the issue becomes academic. First, you can skip worrying about who’s getting saves for the Nats, whether it’s Drew Storen or Brad Lidge at whatever point of the season. The real relief the Nats can look forward to comes from the relative no-names who will be pitching in the sixth, seventh and eighth innings, starting with Tyler Clippard -- the NL’s most valuable non-Braves reliever last year, according to WAR -- and Henry Rodriguez's triple-digit gas, and Craig Stammen's ground-pounding sinker. That’s the kind of talent that will keep hard-hit balls from happening, usually with strikeouts. They won’t notch saves, but they’ll allow Johnson to hook Strasburg earlier than a previous generation’s skipper might have, and that might help keep the kid in the mix to the very end of the season.
Second, Johnson’s an old hand at getting the best from his lineups, to the point that he’ll eke out runs by cheating on defense. Witness Wednesday’s lineup behind Strasburg: With lefty Johan Santana on the mound, it becomes relatively affordable to put the towering Jayson Werth out in center field. Why? Because Strasburg generates so many outs at home plate that Johnson can risk a few adequate (or worse) defenders on the field. Against the Mets, Strasburg got half of his outs at home with those nine K's, got three ground-ball outs, and got a fly-ball out per inning.
There’s nothing very newfangled about this: Back in the 1980s, Johnson was willing to play sluggers such as Howard Johnson or a young Kevin Mitchell at shortstop when he had an extreme fly-ball/strikeout pitcher such as Sid Fernandez on the mound. And with more strikeouts happening today than ever, it makes even more sense now.
So maybe that’s the formula that gets Strasburg deep into the season: Better run support thanks to tailored lineups, a bullpen that can cover three or four frames per game, and not just pitch counts. If the Nats stay in this thing the way you could think they might, we’ll see what they decide about Strasburg’s workload then.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Rick Yeatts/Getty ImagesIchiro might be getting up there, but he can still get on his horse and ride.Strasburg-Santana battle one to watch
April, 11, 2012
Apr 11
1:00
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
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Dodger Thoughts
Seeing Vin Scully being introduced, in absentia, during the pregame ceremonies for the Dodgers' first home appearance of the season, his image on the scoreboard without his voice, put pressure directly on my heart.
For the rest of this blog post, click here.
Beaneball
The A's have been engaging in some aggressive shifting lately. I don't recall how much of this they did under Bob Geren, and it's hard to say without spending lots of time watching other teams how widespread this is beyond the well-known example of the Rays, but it's something to note.
For the rest of this blog post, click here.
The New York Mets won't be protecting a perfect record Wednesday afternoon at Citi Field after their first loss of the season on Tuesday, but their game against the Washington Nationals features an intriguing matchup between these two pitchers. Both are attempting to return from injuries after missing all or most of 2011.
"It's always good for baseball when you have a matchup like that," Santana told ESPN New York's Adam Rubin. "I'm still working my way back. But it's definitely good. Every time you have a challenge like that, it's going to be a good one, and I'm looking forward to it."
Strasburg had a solid Opening Day effort against the Chicago Cubs, allowing one run with five strikeouts in seven innings at Wrigley. His average fastball velocity clocked in at 95.3 mph, less than the 97.3 he averaged in 2010 but still some impressive heat, especially for a first start in April. The bigger issue, as it is with many pitchers coming off Tommy John surgery, is command of their pitches.
Here are two heat maps for Strasburg, the first showing his pitch location versus right-handed batters with his fastball in the 2010 season, and the other from last week, in his start against the Cubs.
ESPN Stats & InformationLeft: Strasburg's fastball location vs. RHB in 2010. Right: Opening Day location.In 2010, Strasburg held right-handed batters to a .218 average off his fastball. As you can see from the heat map, he pretty much gunned high fastballs down the middle, overpowering them with high 90s octane. Against, the Cubs, he threw 42 fastballs to right-handed batters and was a bit inconsistent with his location. He walked only one batter, but if you watch Wednesday, pay attention to where he's spotting his fastball and whether he can use it to get ahead of hitters.
From 2002 through 2010, Santana was an incredible 130-66 with a 2.90 ERA, leading his league three times in ERA, three times in strikeouts and winning two Cy Young Awards. He led all starting pitchers in ERA over that span and held hitters to a .221 average. His knockout pitch was a devastating changeup, a big reason he's held right-handed batters to a lower career OPS than lefties.
Below is the heat map on Santana's changeup location versus right-handed batters in 2010 and in his Opening Day start against the Braves.
ESPN Stats & InformationLeft: Johan Santana's changeup location vs. RHB in 2010. Right: Opening Day location.As you can see, he made his living against righties on the low outside corner; there's not much hitters can do with that pitch. Righties hit just .189 off Santana's changeup in 2010. He threw 10 changeups to righties against the Braves and, with this limited sample size, he was all over the place. Like Strasburg's fastball command, check to see Santana's changeup location. With the Nationals featuring a righty-heavy lineup, he'll need to be hitting that outside corner.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Jayne Kamin-Oncea/US PresswireHe didn't build it, but Dodger Stadium is Matt Kemp's house now.Weekly preview: Superpowers on the spot
April, 9, 2012
Apr 9
1:05
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
I'm still trying to catch my breath. What a first weekend of games, from ace starters dominating to bullpen implosions to clutch home runs. The first week of the season is always entertaining for the rash judgments and choleric reactions to a few losses, but there's no denying the big storyline: The Baltimore Orioles are undefeated!
AROUND THE SWEETSPOT NETWORK
Capitol Avenue Club
It's three games. Yes, they count just the same as any other three games, but they also only count the same as any other random three games. Yes, it hurts to get swept by the Mets. No, it's not that big of a deal. The Mets are a much better team than people think. Managerial mishaps did abound. Jose Constanza was used like he is by far our best bench bat. Nothing personal against Jose, but I really cannot wait for Chipper to be activated, if for no other reason than Constanza can no longer be called upon in crucial pinch hitting situations.
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View From the Bleachers
They can't make me love them. Or maybe they can? I knew going into the recap that I would have to write about one of my least favorite Cubs, Jeff Samardzija. Little did I know at the time my other least favorite Cub, Alfonso Soriano, would also figure prominently in this, the Cubs first win of 2012! Samardzija pitched a beautiful game, taking only 110 pitches to get 26 outs, and 72% of his pitches were strikes.
For the rest of this blog post, click here.
Mop-Up Duty
In spring training in 1988, then-Blue Jays manager Jimy Williams announced that left fielder George Bell would be the full-time DH, both to save his knees and to improve the defense. The reigning MVP resisted the role-change and channeled his anger into hitting three home runs on Opening Day of 1988 -- the first player to ever do so.
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(he had the Yankees at 93 wins, the Red Sox at 89), the odds are even lower. So, it's not absolutely crazy to think both of these teams could fall short of October.
For all you haters out there, however: The 1998 Yankees started 0-3 and won 114 games ... so don't get too excited just yet. Still, attention will be focused on all the hysteria coming out of the Boston and New York camps this week, and deservedly so. But there is much to watch in our first full of week of action.
Series of the week
Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers, Tuesday through Thursday
Matt Moore vs. Rick Porcello
James Shields vs. Justin Verlander
Jeff Niemann vs. Drew Smyly
An intriguing series as both teams are coming off season-opening sweeps. The Moore's anticipated 2012 debut is must-watch baseball. You're telling me you're not excited to see how the rookie attacks Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder? We get the two aces on Wednesday, with Verlander coming off a dominant Opening Day performance. Shields didn't face the Tigers last season. Rookie Smyly makes his major league debut on Thursday. The Tigers' second-round pick out of Arkansas in 2010, Smyly made his pro debut in 2011 and posted a 2.26 ERA between Class A and Double-A, with 131 strikeouts and 38 walks in 127.2 innings. He beat out Jacob Turner, the team's top prospect, for the No. 5 job in rotation. A 6-foot-3 lefty, Smyly isn't overpowering but throws strikes and repeats his delivery well. A start this weekend for Toledo didn't go well, as he lasted just 1.2 innings and gave up three hits and two walks.
Three pitching matchups to watch
1. Monday: Hector Noesi vs. Yu Darvish, Mariners vs. Rangers (8:05 p.m. ET)
Umm, I'm sure Noesi has his fans but this is all about Darvish's first start. The Rangers carefully slotted Darvish in as the team's No. 4 starter, allowing him to make his first two starts against the Mariners and Twins. That's called easing him in.
2. Wednesday: Stephen Strasburg vs. Johan Santana, Nationals at Mets (1 p.m. ET)
A crucial NL East tilt! Hey, the Mets are 3-0, don't laugh. Both pitchers were solid in the season debuts, although the Mets would like to see Santana go deeper then the five inning he pitched on Opening Day.
3. Wednesday: Josh Johnson vs. Roy Halladay, Marlins at Phillies (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2/ESPN3)
These two have faced off three times since Halladay joined the Phillies. Johnson won last year 2-1 while they split in 2010 -- Halladay winning 1-0 with his perfect game and Johnson winning 2-0 (Halladay allowed just one run).
Player on the hot seat: Red Sox bullpen
Closer Alfredo Aceves has faced five batters in two games and failed to retire any of them. Mark Melancon has already been tagged with two losses, as five of the eight batters to face him have knocked out hits. Will Bobby Valentine panic? Will Franklin Morales be moved to closer? Will Daniel Bard return to the pen before he even starts a game? Good times, Red Sox Nation!
Player to watch: Yoenis Cespedes
With three home runs in his first four games -- including a mammoth home run off the facing off the second deck in Oakland on Friday night, a 462-foot blast he stood and admired for a couple seconds -- Cespedes has already displayed the huge power that scouts drooled over. He's also fanned seven times with no walks in 13 plate appearances. As Mark Simon points out, Cespedes has taken 13 swings on breaking pitches and missed on 10 of them, looking especially vulnerable on balls in the dirt. It's been all or nothing but the "all" has been mighty impressive.
Heat map of the week
Clayton Kershaw's slider is one of the most devastating weapons in baseball. In 2011, left-handers went 8-for-58 (.138) with 26 strikeouts and one home run when putting the slider in play (or striking out against); right-handers went 23-for-198 (.116) with 112 strikeouts and just two home runs. What makes the slider so tough isn't necessarily the location, but the movement on it and how he sets it up with his fastball. As you can, the slider is often in a hittable location -- but hitters can't hit it.
ESPN Stats & InformationKershaw's slider location in 2011 versus lefties (left) and righties.
Christian Petersen/Getty ImagesLyle Overbay learns that you can't assume on getting home against Buster Posey.Links: Issues with Lincecum, King Felix?
April, 6, 2012
Apr 6
1:50
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
- Paul Lukas has his annual new uniform review. We all know about the Marlins' makeover, but there many others changes, patches and throwbacks to check out.
- How often do Opening Day lineups turn over? Diane Firstman, with help from Baseball-Reference.com, has a couple fascinating charts that show how rapidly teams do go through players.
- Here's the daily roundup from You Can't Predict Baseball. They do this every day, and it's full of interesting tidbits.
- Jerry Crasnick reports on a positive start to 2012 for Stephen Strasburg.
- It was a big win for the Tigers, even if Justin Verlander didn't get the win. And Miguel Cabrera actually caught a foul pop fly!
- Stephanie Lisco is already losing faith in the Indians after the 16-inning debacle.
- Bill Baer breaks down Roy Halladay's Opening Day gem. Halladay's Game Score of 83 was the best of his 10 career Opening Day starts.
- Kerry Wood might have been squeezed by the umpire, but it was still a tough loss for the Cubs.
- Tommy Hanson slightly altered his mechanics this spring, and Ben Duronio examines how Hanson's release point in Thursday's opener compared to 2011.
- The Dodgers won despite Clayton Kershaw leaving early with a case of the flu.
- Tim Lincecum starts tonight. Last year, he threw more sliders than ever, but ditched the pitch in spring training and has said he won't use it early in the season. Chris Quick with a look at what to expect from Lincecum and the Giants on Opening Day.
- So Michael Pineda wasn't throwing hard? Jon Shields writes about another pitcher with diminished velocity so far: Felix Hernandez. With much less hype, King Felix has been hovering at 90 mph with his fastball -- including during the season opener in Japan. Hernandez starts again on Saturday.
- Will Albert Pujols begin his season with a Royal conquest?
- What is the perfect Josh Hamilton contract? Prashanth Francis examines a question that will hover over the Rangers all season.
- Ryan Topp with five ways the Brewers can squeeze a few wins out of their roster.
- Which team can be this year's Arizona Diamondbacks? ESPN Insider Ben Lindbergh points to the Royals, Mariners and Pirates as the best possibilities.
- Dan Szymborski has his list of the five worst roster decisions, including the Nationals going with Ross Detwiler in the rotation.
- It was Opening Day in the minors as well. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus has a roundup. (Bryce Harper went 2-for-4 in his Triple-A debut, with a double and stolen base.)
Opening Day: Starters terrific, bullpens not
April, 5, 2012
Apr 5
5:54
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
The anticipation begins as soon as the final out of the World Series is recorded. It builds during an offseason of trade rumors and free-agent signings, spring training injury updates and roster cutdowns. Then Opening Day arrives and maybe a small part of us wonders whether we'll still care as much. But then Justin Verlander takes the mound and Jacoby Ellsbury steps in and we wonder whether Verlander can amaze us like he did so often last year or whether Ellsbury will have the same lightning in his bat. Roy Halladay takes the mound and we wonder whether this is the season he slips a bit or why Ty Wigginton is batting fifth or whether the Pirates will actually do anything.
So we flip on the TV or the computer or check the updates on our phones. Maybe you sneak a peek at work or school. We're kids again, with a million questions that need answers and baseball on our minds.
* * * *
A few notes from the early games ...
- Justin Verlander picked up where he left off, dominating the Red Sox with eight shutout innings. He got into one mini-jam, two runners on with two outs in the sixth and David Ortiz up. Ortiz got in an 0-2 hole, fouled off two pitches, and then Verlander spun a filthy, 82 mph curveball that Ortiz swung through, leaving him shaking his head in respectful disgust. Jon Lester was nearly as good for Boston and could have escaped without a run. Alex Avila doubled deep into the left-field corner with two outs in the seventh, a nice piece of hitting in which he fought off a 93 mph up-and-in fastball. The ball hung in the air awhile, but Cody Ross was unable to track it down. (Would Carl Crawford have made the play?)
When the Tigers tacked another run off Vicente Padilla in the eighth to make it 2-0, the game appeared over. Jim Leyland yanked Verlander after 105 pitches -- he averaged 116 per outing in 2011 -- and brought in Papa Grande, Jose Valverde, Mr. Perfect who was 52-for-52 in save opportunities last season including the playoffs. But this is why we love baseball: Sure enough, Valverde blows the save, and everybody wonders why Verlander was taken out.
For what it's worth, nobody tosses a complete game anymore on Opening Day. There have been just six nine-inning outings since 2000, and only Felix Hernandez has gone the distance since 2007.
Valverde got the vulture win when the Tigers scored in the bottom of the ninth, so in the end the only negative for Detroit was Verlander didn't get the deserved "W" next to his name, a reminder of why he might pitch just as well and not win 24 games again. Jhonny Peralta and Avila hit soft singles off Mark Melancon -- Ryan Sweeney, who failed to track down Austin Jackson's leadoff triple in the eighth pulled up short on Peralta's hit. (It was the smart play with one out; you can't give up an extra-base hit there.) Bobby Valentine then went to Alfredo Aceves, his designated closer and a better bet to induce a ground ball, although also less of a strikeout pitcher. Anyway, Aceves hit Ramon Santiago, then Jackson drilled a 2-1 pitch past a diving Kevin Youkilis for the winning hit.
One game in, and you already know there will be questions raised about the Red Sox's bullpen. - Halladay was Halladay, with eight cruise-control innings against the Pirates. There were a few concerns during spring training when Halladay allowed seven home runs in just 22 innings after surrendering just 10 last season. But he flipped the switch and allowed two hits and no walks, and threw just 92 pitches. Jonathan Papelbon showed what a closer is supposed to do, with a 1-2-3 ninth.
The Phillies' lineup, of course, is a cause for concern with Chase Utley and Ryan Howard out, and one run won't alleviate those concerns. But for at least one day Phillies fans can toast Ty Wigginton, who scored the game's only run and made a nice stretch at first base to record the final out of the eighth. Yes, Phillies fans are counting on Wigginton to be productive. Chalk it up as a reason nobody can predict what will happen this season. - For a while, it looked like we might have three or four games end 1-0. There were 52 such games in 2011, never more than two on one day. But the late rallies in Detroit and then Chicago ended that. The Mets' 1-0 victory included five solid innings from Johan Santana. He was throwing 87-88 mph, but because he relies on his slider and changeup, he doesn't necessarily have to be overpowering. In 2010, when he posted a 2.98 ERA before his season-ending injury in September, Santana averaged 89.4 mph on his fastball. That was down from his peak velocity with the Twins of 93 mph, but he proved he still can be effective throwing 88-90.
- Stephen Strasburg was also impressive in a windy day at Wrigley, allowing one run over seven innings. Ryan Dempster was even more dominant, striking out 10 over 7 2/3 innings. Kerry Wood came on with a runner on base ... and walked three batters in a row. Jayson Werth battled back from an 0-2 count to force in the tying run. The Nationals then scored in the ninth off the always-shaky Carlos Marmol to win 2-1. The Cubs got a one-out triple from Ian Stewart, but Jeff Baker swung at a first-pitch slider from Brad Lidge and pulled it to third base as Stewart went on contact. He was easily out at home plate. Nothing more painful than blowing a late lead to lose at home on Opening Day. Wait 'til next year, Cubbies.
Some quick bullet points on our third Opening Day/night of the season:
1. A day of aces. Justin Verlander, Roy Halladay, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, Ricky Romero, Justin Masterson ... I think we may see some low-scoring games today. Strasburg's start in Chicago will be especially interesting. After his impressive return last September, his spring training numbers were mediocre (not that you can read too much into that).
2. Red Sox closer situation. Bobby Valentine named Alfredo Aceves his closer. The most interesting thing here is to see how Valentine employs him. Much of Aceves' value a year ago was that he wasn't just a one-inning guy. The Red Sox are carrying 13 pitchers, but you wonder if Valentine will try and use Mark Melancon and Aceves to get more than six outs if Boston has a lead and the starter has to come out.
3. Johan Santana making his first start since Sept. 2, 2010. If he gives the Mets 30 ace-level starts, can they become surprise contenders in a tough division? (My Mets friends say: No.)
4. The revamped Citi Field dimensions. We saw all the space in Marlins Park last night. The Mets went the opposite direction, moving the fences in. How much will that affect home runs?
5. Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. How will Cabrera handle third base? Is there any truth to the belief that Fielder will "protect" Cabrera? He did receive 22 intentional walks last year, so in theory that number may decrease.
1. A day of aces. Justin Verlander, Roy Halladay, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, Ricky Romero, Justin Masterson ... I think we may see some low-scoring games today. Strasburg's start in Chicago will be especially interesting. After his impressive return last September, his spring training numbers were mediocre (not that you can read too much into that).
2. Red Sox closer situation. Bobby Valentine named Alfredo Aceves his closer. The most interesting thing here is to see how Valentine employs him. Much of Aceves' value a year ago was that he wasn't just a one-inning guy. The Red Sox are carrying 13 pitchers, but you wonder if Valentine will try and use Mark Melancon and Aceves to get more than six outs if Boston has a lead and the starter has to come out.
3. Johan Santana making his first start since Sept. 2, 2010. If he gives the Mets 30 ace-level starts, can they become surprise contenders in a tough division? (My Mets friends say: No.)
4. The revamped Citi Field dimensions. We saw all the space in Marlins Park last night. The Mets went the opposite direction, moving the fences in. How much will that affect home runs?
5. Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. How will Cabrera handle third base? Is there any truth to the belief that Fielder will "protect" Cabrera? He did receive 22 intentional walks last year, so in theory that number may decrease.
ABOUT THIS BLOG
David Schoenfield
Schoenfield is a senior writer for ESPN.com and been with ESPN since 1995, having served as baseball editor and Page 2 senior editor. Follow Dave on Twitter: @dschoenfield and the SweetSpot blog on Facebook.
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