SweetSpot: Ted Williams

Barry Bonds, Randy JohnsonAP Photo/Eric RisbergBarry Bonds hit three home runs in 49 at-bats against left-handed power thrower Randy Johnson.
The other night I tweeted something like, "Would love to see Aroldis Chapman face 2001 Barry Bonds." On the Baseball Today podcast, we had a reader ask us about best pitcher-hitter matchups to watch for over the next few years.

With that prompt, I'd thought it would be fun to list 10 of my all-time favorite matchups I would have wanted to see ... although a few of them are recent enough that some of us did see them. With help from Baseball-Reference.com and Retrosheet.org, we can even find results of the matchups.

Ty Cobb versus Walter Johnson (.366, 1 HR)
According to researcher Terry Cullen, Cobb hit .366 in his career off Johnson (120-for-328) -- pretty amazing considering Cobb's average against all pitchers was ... .366. While Cobb reportedly said Johnson's fastball "looked about the size of a watermelon seed and it hissed at you as it passed," he certainly didn't have issues hitting it. Cobb knew Johnson was too nice to pitch inside, so he'd crowd the plate. "I saw him wince when he fired one close to somebody's head, and he used to tell me that he was afraid someday that he would kill a man with that fireball," Cobb once said. "So I used to cheat. I'd crowd that plate so far that I was actually sticking my toes on it when I was facing Johnson. I knew he was timid about hitting a batter, and when he saw me crowding the plate he'd steer his pitches a little bit wide. Then with two balls and no strikes, he'd ease up a bit to get it over. That's the Johnson pitch I hit. I was depending on him to be scared of hitting me." Now, that's what Cobb said; seems a little too simple though, doesn't it? Why didn't every hitter do that? There's no doubt the approach helped Cobb, but unlike most hitters, he could hit Johnson's fastball. (By the way, his only home run off Johnson was an inside-the-parker.)

Babe Ruth versus Lefty Grove (incomplete)
Some say Grove was the best pitcher of all time -- 300 wins with a .680 winning percentage, nine ERA titles, seven consecutive strikeout titles. Wouldn't you love to see Ruth taking a big cut against Grove's legendary fastball? I couldn't find Ruth career's numbers against Grove, but he did hit nine home runs off him, tied with Lou Gehrig and Hank Greenberg for the most against Grove. In the data Retrosheet has available, Ruth hit .300/.349/.438 with three home runs in 80 at-bats, six walks and 27 K's.

Ted Williams versus Bob Feller (.347/.467/.677, 9 HR in 124 ABs)
Those numbers are from Retrosheet, but are incomplete. From 1948 to 1956, Williams crushed Feller -- .389/.511/.833, with eight home runs in 72 at-bats. So, at least initially, Feller fared better before Williams started dominating. Williams did call Feller the best pitcher he ever faced.

Willie Mays versus Bob Gibson (.196/.315/.304, 3 HR in 92 ABs)
With his fastball/slider combo, you might expect that Gibson was tough on right-handed batters and you'd be correct: right-handers hit .204 against him, left-handers .257. Basically, he owned Mays, who struck out 30 times in 108 plate appearances and had just four extra-base hits. In James Hirsch's biography of Mays he tells the story of Gibson once visiting Mays' home wearing glasses. Gibson didn't wear them when he pitched. "You wear glasses? Man, you're going to kill somebody one of those days," Mays said. Hirsch writes that later in his career Mays started conveniently scheduling off days against hard-throwers like Gibson and Tom Seaver, and that he always preferred off-speed pitches to fastballs.

Hank Aaron versus Bob Gibson (.215/.278/.423, 8 HR in 163 ABs)
Aaron had a little more success than Mays. So who did hit well against Gibson? Billy Williams hit .259 but with 10 home runs in 174 at-bats and 24 walks against 14 strikeouts. Richie Hebner had a 1.127 OPS against Gibson in 74 PAs, batting .387. Darrell Evans, facing mostly the late-career Gibson, never struck out against him in 35 PAs, drawing 11 walks and and hitting three home runs.

Willie Mays versus Sandy Koufax (.278/.426/.536, 5 HR in 97 ABs)
Of course, Mays faced the young Koufax, and then the unhittable Koufax. During Koufax's 1962-1966 run, when he led the National League each season in ERA, Mays still hit a respectable .242/.373/.484, with more walks than strikeouts.

Hank Aaron versus Sandy Koufax (.362/.431/.647, 7 HR in 116 ABs)
Of 73 players with at least 40 career plate appearances against Koufax, only five hit .300. Most of that damage was against pre-'62 Koufax, as Aaron hit .259 from '62 to '66.

Mike Schmidt versus Nolan Ryan (.179/.405/.482, 5 HR in 56 ABs)
Ryan came over to the Astros in 1980, the year Schmidt won the first of his three MVP trophies. In the ultimate battle of power hitter versus power pitcher, the results were perhaps what you would expect: Schmidt hit for a low average, but got on base and popped home runs at a pretty good ratio.

Barry Bonds versus Greg Maddux (.265/.376/.508, 9 HR in 132 ABs)
The two came up in 1986, so it's not surprising that Maddux faced Bonds more than any hitter in his career. How good was Bonds? Even the pitcher with pinpoint control walked him 24 times in 157 PAs with just 16 strikeouts. Bonds' nine home runs off Maddux are the most he hit off one pitcher, tied with John Smoltz. Bonds had an .883 OPS against Maddux, but 1.138 against Smoltz and .992 against Tom Glavine. Who did own Bonds? He went 3-for-33 off Chuck McElroy, with just one walk (although two home runs).

Barry Bonds versus Randy Johnson (.306/.452/.551, 3 HR in 49 ABs)
Johnson had 37 intentional walks in his career; 34 were to right-handed batters. Two were to Barry Bonds. The other? Jeremy Hermida. Go figure. The first walk to Bonds came in 2003, runner on second, no outs, sixth inning, Diamondbacks down 2-0. The second one came in 2004 and is more interesting: 2004, game tied in the fifth, runners on first and second. Edgardo Alfonzo hit a fly ball to deep left-center that Luis Gonzalez dropped; Steve Finley was then credited with an error on the throw in as all three runners scored. The walk to Hermida came in 2008, in a game Hermida was batting eighth. Maybe that's when Johnson knew he was nearing the end.

What are some of your favorite matchups?

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Ted Williams/Babe RuthMark Rucker/Transcendental Graphics/Getty ImagesA 20-year-old rookie Ted Williams has fun with a retired Babe Ruth in 1939.


It's not surprising that Babe Ruth and Ted Williams reached the finals of our Greatest Season Ever bracket. In Ruth, you have the most iconic player of all time; in Williams, you have the owner of perhaps the most iconic season of all time.

Maybe it's a little surprising that a season that occurred 91 years ago and another that occurred 71 years ago made our final round -- as I wrote the other day, try to imagine such a result in any other sport. But it speaks to the legacy that baseball holds over us, the importance of its history as our national pastime, the weight and consideration we still give to statistics and magical numbers and, yes, the iconic status of two hitters whose great seasons came before the game was integrated.

On a pure statistical level, Ruth and Williams are the two greatest hitters of all time. In offense-only career wins above replacement, Ruth ranks No. 1 and Williams ranks No. 6 (despite missing nearly five full seasons to military service). In career OPS, Ruth and Williams rank first and second. In adjusted OPS, they still rank one and two. In career runs created, Ruth ranks second (behind Barry Bonds) and Williams ranks sixth despite the missed time. In adjusted batting wins, Ruth is first and Williams essentially tied for third with Ty Cobb (Bonds is second). In a statistic called offensive winning percentage, which calculates how an entire lineup of Ruth or Williams would fare with an average pitching staff and average defense, Ruth rates first and Williams second. The figures: .858 and .857. (All rankings from Baseball-Reference.com.)

Now, I have no doubt that if you put Albert Pujols into a time machine that took him back to 1921, he'd put up numbers comparable to Ruth's. I'm sure if you brought Ruth back in the time machine to 2011 that he'd be able to match Pujols' numbers. But he was the evolutionary figure, the guy who swung hard every time, who was willing to sacrifice strikeouts if it led to more home runs. He brought power to the game, leaving John McGraw's "inside baseball" in the dust. Look, was it easier in Ruth's time? Of course it was. The pitchers didn't throw as hard; this is fact, not speculation, best indicated by the nugget that Ruth used a 52-ounce bat early in his career. His bats did get lighter (he was one of the first batters to start using a thinner handle to better whip his stick through the strike zone), but you wouldn't be able to consistently get around on 95 mph fastballs with a 52-ounce or 48-ounce or 44-ounce bat.

An interesting comparison between Ruth and Williams is they both grew up in troubled circumstances. Ruth's father owned a saloon, and young George Herman Ruth was always in trouble. Nobody knows the exact reasons Ruth was initially sent away to St. Mary's Industrial School for Boys. (His sister claimed it was because Ruth simply refused to go to school.) He first went there when he was 8, more permanently when he turned 10. Reports vary on whether his mother (until she died) and father visited him at the school. Williams' father abandoned the family, and Bill James quotes Williams as once saying, "Well, I wouldn't have wanted to be married to a woman like that, either."

As James writes, "By the time he was 20, Williams was insecure, moody and filled with hate. ... He had a lot more in common with Ty Cobb than Babe Ruth." That passion fueled Williams as a hitter. But he was not a fan favorite the first part of his career, even in Boston. There were times he didn't hustle, there were times he made obscene gestures to fans and he famously feuded with reporters. Ruth, of course, was beloved, a hulking, gregarious figure who lived a big life and hit big home runs. It's been 76 years since he played his last game, and he still looms large over the sport as the widely regarded greatest player of all time.

Ruth, in 1921, hit .378 with 59 home runs, 171 RBIs and 177 runs scored. He drew 145 walks, struck out 81 times, had a .512 on-base percentage and slugged .846. Williams hit .406 in 1941, refusing to sit on the final day of the season with a .400 average and went 6-for-8 in a doubleheader. He drew 147 walks and struck out just 37 times, leading the league with 37 home runs and 135 runs scored. His .553 on-base percentage is the third-highest single-season total of all time, behind two of Bonds' seasons. Of course, Williams is the last guy to hit .400. Amazingly, he didn't win the MVP Award that season, losing out to Joe DiMaggio, although Williams actually outhit DiMaggio during the latter's 56-game hitting streak.

Ruth or Williams? Who gets your vote?

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The voters have spoken: They like outfielders who put up monster numbers in the pre-expansion era.

It's not too surprising, of course, that Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle, Ted Williams and Stan Musial are our semifinalists in the Greatest Season Ever bracket. Ruth, Williams and Mantle were three of the top four seeds. But as I wrote Wednesday, it was arguably easier to put up big numbers in the old days.

Let's take a closer look at the two semifinal matchups (vote here!).

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Mantle
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Ruth
Babe Ruth 1921 versus Mickey Mantle 1956
  • Ruth came over to the Yankees in 1920 and exploded with 54 home runs, a mind-numbing total at the time that shattered his record of 29 set the previous season. As often noted, Ruth hit more home runs in 1920 than every American League team. In 1921, he upped his mark to 59, still better than five AL teams.
  • Ruth set the all-time record with 119 extra-base hits, added 44 doubles and 16 triples. Remember, this wasn't the fat, big-bellied Ruth we remember. In 1921, he was still a slim, powerful athlete, as opposed to just a powerful slugger. It should be noted, however, that hitting 16 triples wasn't a rare feat back then: Ruth ranked fourth in the AL that year. Outfielders played much more shallow so it was easier to leg out three-baggers.
  • Ruth scored 177 runs, tied for second all-time (Billy Hamilton scored 198 in 1894, a crazy ridiculous season that would require a post of its own). The Yankees did score a lot of runs that year -- 948 -- but Bob Meusel was the only other hitter in the lineup in the top 10 in the AL in OPS.
  • Ruth did tower over the rest of the league -- the No. 2 AL guy in OPS was Harry Heilmann at 1.051, well behind Ruth's 1.359. The No. 2 guys in WAR were Tris Speaker and Ty Cobb at 6.6, well behind Ruth's 14.0. To some extent, Ruth's dominance has perhaps been exaggerated a bit. Yes, he was the first guy to put up these kinds of numbers. But in 1922, Rogers Hornsby hit .401 with 42 home runs. The same year Ken Williams of the St. Louis Browns hit 39 home runs and drove in 155 runs. In 1923, Cy Williams tied Ruth for the major league lead with 41 home runs. Soon thereafter, sluggers like Lou Gehrig and Jimmie Foxx were putting up comparable numbers.
  • Ruth played mostly left field in 1921, and Baseball-Reference.com estimates his defense as about average. (For his career, they do rate him a little above average overall.)
  • Ruth led the Yankees to their first pennant, but it ended in a disappointing World Series loss to the Giants in eight games (it was a best-of-nine that year). Ruth .313/.476/.500 with one home run and four RBIs, but was limited to six games as he battled an infected arm and a knee injury suffered in Game 5. He didn't play in Game 6 or 7 (both Yankees losses) and pinch-hit in the ninth inning of Game 8 with the Yankees down 1-0, but grounded out.
  • Mickey Mantle was 24 years in 1956, already a four-time All-Star and the reigning AL home run champion. But he took his game to a new level in 1956, hitting .353/.464/.705 with 52 home runs and 130 RBIs to win the Triple Crown. He led the AL with 132 runs and 376 total bases and was the unanimous MVP as the Yankees won the pennant by nine games.
  • Like Ruth, Mantle dominated his contemporaries. His 52 home runs were 20 more than Vic Wertz, the No. 2 guy, and Yogi Berra was the only other American Leaguer to reach 30. His 132 runs were 23 more than any other player and he was one of only two players (Al Kaline was the other) with 300 total bases.
  • Unlike with Ruth, we know Mantle's splits, and he was incredible with runners on base, hitting .444 with runners in scoring position and .392 with men on base. In so-called "late and close" situations he hit .373/.481/.791, with eight home runs in 67 at-bats.
  • He hit .325 with 10 home runs against second-place Cleveland.
  • Mantle was never in the class of Willie Mays on defense, but in 1956 he was still young and fast, his knees not yet completely ravaged. He rates as a slightly above-average center fielder and an excellent baserunner.
  • He capped the season with a World Series victory, hitting three home runs, including one in Don Larsen's 2-0 perfect game victory in Game 5.
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Williams
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Musial
Stan Musial 1948 versus Ted Williams 1941
  • Stan the Man did everything in 1948, leading the National League in average, OBP, slugging, runs, hits, RBIs, doubles, triples and total bases. He just missed the Triple Crown, hitting 39 home runs, one behind Ralph Kiner and Johnny Mize. His 1.159 OPS was nearly 200 points better than Mize's .959.
  • His 11.5 WAR was well ahead of Mize, the No. 2 guy at 6.9.
  • Musial scored 135 runs and drove in 131 despite having little help in the St. Louis lineup outside of Enos Slaughter -- the Cardinals scored 742 runs. Backup Ron Northey was second on the team with 13 home runs.
  • Musial hit .415 on the road with 23 of his 39 home runs.
  • He also stepped up against the Cardinals' main rivals. The Cardinals finished in second place behind Boston, but Musial hit .443 against the Braves and .391 with eight home runs against third-place Brooklyn.
  • Musial split his time among all three outfield positions, starting 61 games in center, 51 in right and 41 in left. He rates as a slightly above-average defender. Somehow, he wasn't the unanimous MVP, collecting 18 of 24 first-place votes.
  • Ted Williams was just 22 years old and in his third season in 1941. He'd hit .327 as a rookie and .344 in 1940. Nobody expected this kind of season, especially after he broke a bone in his right ankle in spring training, which limited him to pinch-hitting the first two weeks of the season.
  • Once he got going, Williams hit .436 in May, .372 in June, .429 in July, .402 in August and .397 in September.
  • Despite leading the AL in average, OBP, slugging and home runs and runs scored, Williams lost the MVP vote to Joe DiMaggio of the pennant-winning Yankees, 291 points to 254 points.
  • During DiMaggio's 56-game hitting streak, he hit .408/.463/.717 with 15 home runs and 55 RBIs. Over the same calendar stretch, Williams hit .412/.540/.684 with 50 RBIs.
  • Against the Yankees, Williams hit .471 although with just two home runs.
  • Williams slugged .735, a figure no AL hitter has matched since.
  • His 1.288 OPS is a figure topped only by Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds.
  • Hit .553 OBP is third-highest in MLB history, behind two Bonds seasons.
Here are the debut seasons of the 15 greatest position players in baseball history, according to Baseball-Reference.com's WAR (wins above replacement-level) statistic, listed in chronological order:

1897 (Honus Wagner)
1905 (Ty Cobb)
1906 (Eddie Collins)
1907 (Tris Speaker)
1914 (Babe Ruth)
1915 (Rogers Hornsby)
1923 (Lou Gehrig)
1926 (Mel Ott)
1939 (Ted Williams)
1941 (Stan Musial)
1951 (Willie Mays)
1951 (Mickey Mantle)
1954 (Hank Aaron)
1979 (Rickey Henderson)
1986 (Barry Bonds)

You see the issue here, right? Only two of the greatest 15 players debuted in the past 55 years. Yes, I cheated a little. If I'd listed the top 20 players, Alex Rodriguez slides on to the list; if I listed the top 30, Albert Pujols joins the list. Chipper Jones is the only other active player in the top 50. But the point is: WAR suggests the greatest of the greatest played 50 years ago or 75 years ago or more than 100 years ago.

As the paleontologist Stephen Jay Gould wrote in his essay "The Extinction of the .400 Hitter," there are common explanations for this: "The first, naive and moral, simply acknowledges with a sigh that there were giants in the earth in those days. Something in us needs to castigate the present in the light of an unrealistically rosy past." Gould also cites the simple explanation that pitching and fielding have improved.

There is another layer to the argument, something that sabermetricians from Bill James to Richard Cramer have argued, that the skill of the average player has increased through time, thus making it more difficult to exceed the norm like Ty Cobb or Babe Ruth or Rogers Hornsby did. Gould writes that "The disappearance of the .400 hitter is largely the result of a more general phenomenon -- a decrease in the variation of batting average as the game standardized its methods of play -- and not an intrinsically driven trend warranting a special explanation in itself."

Gould was writing about hitting .400, but the same idea can be carried over to WAR. Essentially, the reason the list of greatest players ever is backlogged with players from the early 20th century is the game hadn't fully developed yet. We saw more extreme results, as it was easier for the best players to excel in a sport that wasn't fully mature.

Here's an example. Hornsby's 1922 season, when he hit .401 with 42 home runs, was included in our Greatest Season Ever bracket. Hornsby was the best hitter in the National League that season. His WAR is calculated, in part, by comparing him to the other second basemen in the NL from that season. Besides Hornsby, there were nine other second basemen who accumulated at least 300 plate appearances:

Hornsby, Cardinals: 1.181 OPS (704 PAs)
Cotton Tierney, Pirates: .893 OPS (487 PAs)
Lew Fonseca, Reds: .882 OPS (318 PAs)
Frankie Frisch, Giants: .824 OPS (582 PAs)
Frank Parkinson, Phillies: .757 OPS (618 PAs)
Johnny Rawlings, Giants: .729 OPS (346 PAs)
Sam Bohne, Reds, .705 OPS (435 PAs)
Zeb Terry, Cubs, .677 OPS (571 PAs)
Ivy Olson, Dodgers, .653 OPS (595 PAs)
Larry Kopf, Braves, .630 OPS (530 PAs)

The overall National League OPS in 1922 was .753.

Now, compare that to National League second basemen in 2011. Running a similar query, we get a list of 17 players, ranging from Rickie Weeks (.818 OPS) to Jonathan Herrera (.612 OPS). And Herrera was an extreme case; the next-lowest OPS belonged to Aaron Miles at .660. The overall NL OPS in 2011 was .710, so only Herrera was more than 50 points below the league-average OPS figure. In 1922 there were three second basemen (nearly half the league; remember, there were only eight teams in the league back then) at least 75 points below the league-average OPS. I'm not going to suggest I completely understand how WAR is calculated, but I believe this suggests the replacement-level floor in 2011 was much higher than it was in 1922. Weeks isn't Hornsby, but even if he was, it would be more difficult for him to obtain the same level of WAR since the level of play is stronger in 2011.

That doesn't mean Hornsby wasn't a great player or didn't have a terrific season; I'm suggesting it was easier for him to excel against a weaker caliber of competition. It's like it would be if somebody invented a new version of chess or something: Initially, there would be a few people who excelled at the game, but over time others would catch on, adapt and learn the skills necessary to compete.

That's what happens in baseball. I would hope that most of you believe the quality of the game improves over time. Trust me: Babe Ruth didn't face many 6-foot-4 pitchers who threw 95 mph. (In fact, from 1920 through 1935, Baseball-Reference lists 35 pitchers at least 6-4, only 16 of whom pitched at least 100 innings in their careers. In 2011 alone, Baseball-Reference lists 218 pitchers at 6-4 or taller, 58 of whom threw at least 100 innings.)

At some point this becomes a philosophical argument, I suppose, because in the end you can only mathematically compare a player to his contemporaries. But while I believe there were giants back in 1922, I also believe there are giants in 2012.

* * * *

OK, the quarterfinals. Ken Griffey Jr. upset Barry Bonds in the second round, proving (not surprisingly) that there is no love for Bonds' 2001 season. I do wonder how he would have fared if I had chosen his magnificent 1993 season. The matchups:
  • 1921 Babe Ruth versus 1967 Carl Yastrzemski: Our first of two Yankees-Red Sox battles. Can Yaz stop the Babe? I suspect not.
  • 1911 Ty Cobb versus 1956 Mickey Mantle: Should be a close one. Mantle won the Triple Crown, but Cobb hit .420, stole 83 bases and scored 147 runs.
  • 1997 Ken Griffey Jr. versus 1948 Stan Musial: I suspect many of you may know this, but Griffey and Musial were both born in Donora, Pa.
  • 1927 Lou Gehrig versus 1941 Ted Williams: Williams hit .406, but Gehrig hit .373 with 47 home runs and 175 RBIs. Gehrig in an upset?
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We've moved on to the second round of the Greatest MLB Season Ever bracket. All top-10 seeds advanced, but there were three upsets; interestingly, all involved shortstops. Alex Rodriguez lost to Ken Griffey Jr. in a Mariners death duel (got destroyed, actually, 87 percent to 13 percent); Hank Aaron defeated Robin Yount, 61 to 39 percent; and Jimmie Foxx creamed Cal Ripken, 71 to 29 percent. Maybe I'll have to write up a post on the value of positional scarcity.

[+] Enlarge
Henry Aaron
AP File PhotoThe Milwaukee Braves' Hank Aaron was named the NL's MVP in 1957.
I'm not surprised about Rodriguez; even though I chose one of his "pre-steroid" seasons, he's not exactly a fan favorite. Griffey has no PED stain on his reputation, a huge advantage in a popular vote like this. I was surprised Ripken lost so easily to Foxx, despite Foxx's awesome power numbers in 1932 (58 home runs, 169 RBIs). Ripken remains one of the most beloved players ever, and while his raw numbers in 1991 might not immediately impress (.323, 34 home runs, 114 RBIs), those were tremendous numbers for that season and especially tremendous for a shortstop in the pre-Rodriguez/Jeter/Garciaparra era.

But here's what stands out to me: Baseball fans still show great respect for the old guys. Foxx beat Ripken. Aaron over Yount. Stan Musial over George Brett. Joe DiMaggio edged out Albert Pujols in the closest first-round vote, 52 to 48 percent. Ty Cobb easily outvoted Rickey Henderson. In fact, in every matchup in which there was a sizable generation gap, the older guy won. Now, some of these weren't necessarily surprises -- it's not surprising that Mickey Mantle would beat Mike Piazza, for example -- but could you imagine this happening in other sports? No football fan thinks Bronko Nagurski was better than Walter Payton or Emmitt Smith. Sammy Baugh wouldn't outpoll Peyton Manning. George Mikan wouldn't beat out Shaquille O'Neal. Bob Cousy doesn't beat out Magic Johnson or even a more modern guy such as Dwyane Wade.

But in baseball, we cling to the past. Yes, the sport has been around longer, so the framework of the game hasn't changed dramatically like it has in football or basketball. I always wonder why people will argue that football and basketball athletes have improved, but not baseball players. Of course, baseball players in 2012 are bigger, stronger and more athletic than the players Babe Ruth faced in 1921. Pitchers throw harder. Outfielders cover more ground. Infielders have stronger arms. That's the way sports evolve.

* * * *

OK, a quick look at Round 2 in which the matchups get a lot tougher to decide:
  • Babe Ruth 1921 versus Joe DiMaggio 1941: The Babe remains the overwhelming favorite to win the tournament, but Yankees fans will be torn here. DiMaggio had the historic 56-game hitting streak and should get a boost from playing a brilliant center field.
  • Carl Yastrzemski 1967 versus Honus Wagner 1908: Two guys who utterly dominated their leagues. Fans respect the old guys, but Wagner's stats were compiled in the dead ball era and might not impress the voting public.
  • Ty Cobb 1911 versus Joe Morgan: I've made my case for Morgan. Not that Cobb was a slouch. Note that while Cobb hit .420 to Morgan's .327. Their OBPs were essentially identical (.467 to .466). And while 1911 was the dead ball era, consider this: The OPS in the 1911 AL was .696; the OPS in the 1975 NL was .696.
  • Rogers Hornsby 1922 versus Mickey Mantle 1956: The Mick won the Triple Crown, but Hornsby hit .401 with 42 home runs and 152 RBIs. I expect a close vote.
  • Barry Bonds 2001 versus Ken Griffey Jr. 1997: The most intriguing matchup of the second round. Bonds beat out Johnny Bench 65 to 35 percent, and while it was a decisive victory it's also clear that many voters held PED usage against Bonds. With a tougher second-round matchup, it will be interesting to see how he fares.
  • Stan Musial 1948 versus Willie Mays 1962: What makes this even more interesting is that Musial played a lot of center field in 1948. Not saying he played it as well as Mays, but it makes his season more impressive than at first glance.
  • Hank Aaron 1957 versus Lou Gehrig 1927: Two MVP winners, two beloved players. Both World Series champions as well. I'll say Gehrig pulls it out.
  • Jimmie Foxx 1932 versus Ted Williams 1941: No matter the era, 58 home runs and 169 RBIs are impressive. But so is .406. I'll predict Teddy Ballgame rolls on.

MorganRich Pilling/Getty ImagesIn the mid-1970s, Joe Morgan was the best all-around player in baseball -- by a large margin.
In 1975, Joe Morgan hit .327 with 17 home runs and 94 RBIs. Those traditional statistics may not seem impressive, but Morgan’s season ranks as one of the best in the game’s history.

As we begin voting Monday on the greatest individual season of all time, consider Morgan's value that season:
  • He drew 132 walks, giving him a league-leading .466 on-base percentage (the highest figure, by the way, in either league between Mickey Mantle in 1962 and Wade Boggs in 1988).
  • Because of his ability to get on base, he created a lot of runs --about 145, 17 more than the No. 2 hitter in the league, Greg Luzinski. But he created his runs in an efficient manner. He used up 354 outs; Luzinski, by comparison, used up 443 outs. So Morgan created more runs while using up 89 fewer outs.
  • He stole 67 bases in 77 attempts. Factor in his speed, and he was one of the best baserunners in the league.
  • He was an outstanding defensive second baseman, not only winning a Gold Glove but also ranking as the third-best overall defensive player in the National League in 1975, according to Baseball-Reference.com.
  • He did all this in an era when second basemen usually produced little at the plate. In 1975, National League second basemen hit a collective .267/.330/.353 (BA/OBP/SLG) -- with just 80 home runs. Morgan hit nearly one quarter of all home runs by National League second basemen. In 2011 terms, that would be akin to a second baseman hitting close to 50 home runs.
  • The Reds won 108 games, Morgan was the near-unanimous MVP winner, and he even drove in the winning run in the ninth inning of Game 7 of the World Series.

Add it up, and you end up with a player who was the best hitter in the league and one of the best defenders and baserunners in his league, and he did so while towering over other players at his position and playing on a championship team.

The wins above replacement statistic attempts to capture all this. In 1975, Morgan’s Baseball-Reference WAR was 12.0, the best of his career and easily the best in the National League. During his 1972 to 1976 peak, Morgan rated as the best player in the NL four times, at least acording to Baseball-Reference.



In 1975, Morgan was a full five wins better than Mike Schmidt, an astonishing total. Only 12 times since 1901 has a player recorded a bWAR of at least 4.5 wins higher than the No. 2 position player in his league:

1921 AL: Babe Ruth (14.0) over Ty Cobb/Tris Speaker (6.6)
1924 AL: Babe Ruth (11.9) over Harry Heilmann (6.2)
1956 AL: Mickey Mantle (12.9) over Yogi Berra (7.3)
2002 NL: Barry Bonds (12.2) over Jim Edmonds (7.2)
1975 NL: Joe Morgan (12.0) over Mike Schmidt (7.0)
1924 NL: Rogers Hornsby (13.0) over Frankie Frisch (8.0)
1967 AL: Carl Yastrzemski (12.2) over Al Kaline (7.3)
1946 AL: Ted Williams (11.8) over Johnny Pesky (6.9)
1923 AL: Babe Ruth (14.7) over Harry Heilmann (9.8)
1926 AL: Babe Ruth (12.0) over Goose Goslin (7.2)
1922 NL: Rogers Hornsby (10.7) over Dave Bancroft (5.9)
1948 NL: Stan Musial (11.5) over Johnny Mize (6.9)

For what it’s worth, only three of those 12 seasons ended in a World Series title -- Morgan, Mantle and Ruth in 1923.

So maybe Joe Morgan didn’t hit 73 home runs or drive in 191 runs or bat .400. But his 1975 season ranks as sleeper candidate for greatest individual season of all time.

* * * *

It wasn’t easy picking the 32 best seasons. I had two rules: Only one season per player, so we’d end up with a bracket of 32 different players; and I considered only seasons since 1901 (sorry, Ross Barnes fans).

It was important to get a diverse list of eras as well as positions. I did put a little more emphasis on more recent decades; basically, the quality of the game has improved over time, thus making it more difficult to post seasons with huge WAR totals like Ruth put up. Here is the breakdown by decade:

1900s -- 1
1910s -- 3
1920s -- 3
1930s -- 2
1940s -- 4
1950s -- 3
1960s -- 2
1970s -- 3
1980s -- 3
1990s -- 4
2000s -- 4

And by position:

C -- 2; Johnny Bench, Mike Piazza.
1B -- 3; Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, Rod Carew.
2B -- 4; Eddie Collins, Rogers Hornsby, Jackie Robinson, Joe Morgan.
3B -- 2; George Brett, Mike Schmidt.
SS -- 5; Honus Wagner, Ernie Banks, Robin Yount, Cal Ripken, Alex Rodriguez.
LF -- 6; Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski, Rickey Henderson, Barry Bonds, Albert Pujols. (Ruth played left field in 1921, and Pujols primarily played left in 2003.)
CF – 8; Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Hack Wilson, Joe DiMaggio, Stan Musial, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Ken Griffey Jr. (Musial started at all three outfield positions in 1948 but played the most in center.)
RF -- 2; Hank Aaron, Sammy Sosa.

So there are our 32 players. I didn’t necessarily pick each player’s highest WAR season. In some cases, a player’s iconic season -- like Ted Williams’ .406 year or Hank Aaron’s 1957 MVP campaign -- was selected. In some instances, maybe a player had other things in his favor that would help him to potentially fare better in the voting, like a big RBI total. Certainly, WAR is a good baseline to use because it helps us adjust for differences in eras, but it shouldn’t be the only factor in determining the better season between two players. Was what Williams accomplished in 1941 more impressive than what Morgan accomplished in 1975? Is Yount being the best hitter in his league while playing shortstop more impressive than what Babe Ruth did in 1921 against an inferior brand of pitching? Maybe you prefer the all-around brilliance of Mays or DiMaggio over the pure hitting dominance of Rogers Hornsby or Lou Gehrig.

Which seasons just missed the cut? There were seven players who had a bWAR season of at least 10.0 who didn’t make the bracket -- Lou Boudreau, Jason Giambi, Ron Santo, Adrian Beltre, Home Run Baker, Norm Cash and Matt Kemp. Sorry, guys. (Just noticed there are three third basemen there; too late now to change the final 32, unfortunately.)

So get to the bracket and start voting. We’ll do one round per day this week, culminating in the final matchup on Friday.

Let the debates begin.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

Photo of the day: Spring training, 1953

February, 6, 2012
Feb 6
5:24
PM ET
Just a little blast from the past to whet the appetite for spring training ...

Spring Training 1953Mark Rucker/Transcendental Graphics/Getty ImagesTed Williams, Yogi Berra and Mickey Mantle pose during spring training, circa 1953.

Minnie Minoso's still not in the HOF?

December, 5, 2011
12/05/11
8:30
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While Chicagoans can celebrate Ron Santo finally getting his due from Cooperstown -- posthumously and several decades late -- it isn’t like the outcome of the "Golden Era" election was a perfect bit of resolution for baseball fans in the Windy City. White Sox great Minnie Minoso is still on the outside looking in, and that’s every bit as egregious an oversight.

Taken at face value, the big-league numbers for Minoso don’t make an overwhelming case, not the way that Santo’s did. Minoso led the league in steals three times in an era when people didn’t steal a ton of bases. He led in triples three times and hits once and total bases in another -- that doesn't exactly get statheads fired up. Tallying up 1,963 hits, 186 home runs, 205 steals and a .298/.389/.459 batting line doesn’t sound like much in isolation. Minoso did not win a major award, and he never played in the postseason. At first blush, it’s a very good career, but perhaps not an all-time great one.

That would be a superficial response, however. You can’t talk about Minnie Minoso’s case for Cooperstown without getting into his history in other circuits, playing at a time when opportunity was not equal, thanks to matters of race and the reserve clause. His first three years as a pro were spent in his homeland in Cuba (1943-45), followed by three more years starring in the Negro Leagues for the New York Cubans (1946-1948). Minoso then had to spend 1949 and 1950 marking time in the PCL because the Indians felt they were already stocked up in the outfield.

Minoso would only get his real break in 1951 after getting sent to the White Sox in a three-way deal. When, at long last, he made it to the majors to stay in 1951, Minoso was already 28 years old. (He was born in 1922, not 1925 as had been initially thought.) As a result, Minoso was already well through the years that are supposed to be a player’s peak seasons, years he hadn’t gotten to spend in the majors thanks to institutionalized racism and then limited opportunities. We don’t know, can’t know, how much of his career was lost to those factors, just that it was.

However, despite this late start Minoso went on a 10-year run that marked him as one of the best players in the American League. Not broadly speaking, or generously: We’re talking about Mickey Mantle, Ted Williams, and Minnie Minoso. Using Baseball-Reference’s version of WAR, from 1951-60 Minoso is second in the AL behind only Mantle. If you harbor a reasonable suspicion of defensive value, using offense alone Minoso falls from second ... all the way to third, behind Mantle and Williams.

Going year to year and using WAR, in 1951 Minoso was one of the four best position players in the league; count offense alone in that season, and he’s behind just Teddy Ballgame. Sticking with WAR, Minoso was one of the five best position players in the AL in 1951, 1953, 1954 (leading the league), 1956, 1957, 1958 and 1959 (tying with Nellie Fox for the lead). This isn’t a Ralph Kiner-like brief run -- Minoso was simply a great ballplayer, and consistently one of the best of his era.

Minoso’s career is often a case of just missing out, which is why his coming up short in this latest popularity contest can be especially exasperating. He just missed winning the 1951 AL Rookie of the Year, getting 11 first-place votes to the 13 given to Gil McDougald of the Yankees. In 1954, when Minoso was the best player in the league, he was one of five candidates to get an MVP vote in a fractured ballot; instead, the Yankees’ Yogi Berra won his second of three MVP trophies. Minoso also just missed the postseason during this era of Yankees’ dominance: he was on the White Sox in 1957 and in 1960, but because he’d been dealt to the Tribe (for Hall of Famer Early Wynn and outfielder/third baseman Al Smith), he missed being part of the 1959 pennant-winning team.

All of this neglects Minoso’s importance as an example and as a trailblazer as baseball’s first great black Latin player as well as the first black man to play for the White Sox. His popularity in Chicago was locked in from the get-go, as he was widely acknowledged as the reason why White Sox attendance crossed a million for the first time in franchise history in 1951, and then stayed there through the ’50s. Remarkably, the rookie was rewarded with a Minnie Minoso Day at Comiskey Park at the end of that same season. Those aren’t criteria, but a black Latin star becoming a big part of a franchise-wide turnaround is rightly remembered on the South Side as cause for pride.

This is not to trash the positive results of Monday's announcement. Santo’s selection is the closing note of a long campaign to right a wrong, achieving what many already believed -- that Ron Santo was a Hall of Famer, and always had been. The chicanery of the process isn't suddenly validated because this latest mechanism belatedly achieved the right conclusion. In light of the continuing oversight of Minoso, a healthy dose of skepticism that we’ll see the Hall eventually get it right in his case as well would be totally understandable. You can wonder if Minoso will be alive to enjoy the recognition that he too is due, should that day finally come. After what happened with Ron Santo, you have to hope not.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.
I asked my colleague Jim Caple a simple question: "Who is on your short list of the greatest hitters of all time?"

He reeled off the names: Pujols, Bonds, Ruth, Williams ... Mays, Hornsby, Cobb (a little reluctantly on that one). We could include a few others, of course -- Gehrig, Aaron, Musial.

Anyway, maybe we'll do a more thorough examination of this question in the offseason. This is just a quick primer as we sit here waiting for the start of Game 4.

SportsNation

Who is the greatest hitter of all time?

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Discuss (Total votes: 1,397)

Here are the all-time leaders in FanGraphs' wRC+, which compares a hitter's runs created to an average player and is park- and league-adjusted, so a batter with a 150 wRC+ created 50 percent more runs than average:

1. Babe Ruth, 197
2. Ted Williams, 189
3. Barry Bonds, 175
4. Lou Gehrig, 174
5. Rogers Hornsby, 171
6. Ty Cobb, 171
7. Mickey Mantle, 171
8. Albert Pujols, 167

Here is the case against each of those eight, plus Willie Mays:

Babe Ruth
Case against: The advanced statistics don't factor in a timeline adjustment -- or what can be called the evolutionary improvement in the game. Overall, the players in Ruth's era were not as good, not as big and strong as today, the equipment wasn't as good, the fields not as good. This made it easier for a great player to excel above a league-average type of player. Put it this way: Ruth did not have to face guys like Alexi Ogando throwing 97-mph fastballs and 89-mph sliders. You think Ruth would be able to get the 40-ounce bat he used in 1927 around on a 100-mph Justin Verlander heater?

Ted Williams
Case against: The era he played in was perfect for him, a time when pitchers walked more hitters than now, amplifying Williams' skill-set -- patience the plate -- even more. Only hit 40 home runs once. While wRC+ accounts for Fenway being a great hitter's park, it perhaps doesn't fully factor in the advantage it gave Williams, who hit .361 there, .328 on the road. Integration didn't come until the second half of his career, and even then the AL lagged behind the NL.

Barry Bonds
Case against: Bonds through the 1999 season: .288/.409/.559; Bonds from 2000 (when he turned 36 during the season) to the end of his career: .322/.517/.724.

Lou Gehrig
Case against: Played in the 1920s and 1930s, the best offensive era in major league history. Played before integration. Since he got sick, his last season came when he was 35, so he missed the decline phase of his career, which would have lowered his career wRC+ number (although boosting his overall numbers).

Rogers Hornsby
Case against: Fabulous peak, but last great season came when he was just 33. Same arguments here as Ruth and Gehrig; without a timeline adjustment it was easier to statistically excel over an average player. Here's another example about the quality of play issue: In the 1920s National League, when Hornsby dominated, the strikeout rate never topped 3.0 per nine innings. Are we to assume the hitters were all just awesome back then? Or is it possible pitchers just didn't throw as hard, and thus it was easier to put the ball in play?

Ty Cobb
Case against: Talk about a different era. Fielders used gloves barely bigger than their hands when he played. He hit with a split-handed grip, which I'm not sure would fly against 97-mph fastballs on a regular basis. H&B factory records list his bat sizes in 1920 as 36 to 38 ounces, and 37 to 40 ounces in 1921-22. All this suggests a batting style more like a guy slapping the ball in play, as opposed to trying to drive the ball on a regular basis. (I'm not exactly saying Ichiro here; more like a slightly more powerful version of Tony Gwynn.) Could he have hit for power in a different era?

Mickey Mantle
Case against: Short career, too many injuries. Never played 150 games in a season after turning 30.

Albert Pujols
Case against: Has yet to enter decline phase of his career, grounds into too many double plays, doesn't walk quite as much as OBP kings like Ruth, Williams, Bonds and Mantle. The big question here: Has he entered the decline phase of his career? The biggest red flag to me on his 2011 season is that his walk rate dropped significantly from previous seasons, as he was more aggressive at the plate (he swung at 44 percent of all pitches this season, compared to slightly less than 40 percent over the previous five seasons). This change of approach could signify a guy who recognized his bat speed has started to slow slightly and thus swung more often early in the count. Or it could simply be a situation of him getting more pitches to hit with Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday hitting behind him.

Willie Mays
Case against: Career on-base percentage is nearly 100 points below Ruth and Williams, lowering his career wRC+ to .157.
Curtis GrandersonHannah Foslien/Getty ImagesCurtis Granderson currently leads the AL in runs, RBIs and triples, while ranking second in HRs.
In major league history, a player has scored 150 or more runs 46 times, topped by Billy Hamilton's 198 for the 1894 Philadelphia Phillies. You can probably guess that the game was a little different back then: Hamilton posted a .521 on-base percentage, he was one of three Phillies to bat .400 and they scored 1,179 runs in 132 games, or nearly nine runs per game.

Of those 46 seasons of 150 runs, 27 came in the 1880s or 1890s, including eight guys who did it in 1894. It happened seven times in the 1920s, five by Babe Ruth. And it happened 10 times in the 1930s. But since World War II, only two players have scored 150 runs in a season: Ted Williams scored 150 in 1949 and Jeff Bagwell scored 152 in 2000.

After scoring his 124th run in Thursday's win, Curtis Granderson is now on pace for 149 runs. He's scored 27 runs more than the No. 2 guy in the majors, Jacoby Ellsbury. Yes, runs are team-dependent to a certain extent -- you need good hitters behind you to drive you in -- but 149 runs is an awesome achievement, no matter how you slice it. And runs are definitely not, as somebody tweeted the other day, "a meaningless stat." There aren't exactly any chumps on this list of players who have scored 140 runs in a season since 1946.



One thing you'll note about Granderson is he easily has the lowest batting average and on-base percentage of anybody on the list. Clearly, his teammates have helped, as he's scored 47 percent of the time he's been on base, the second-highest percentage on the list. He's helped by spending most of the season in the No. 2 hole in the batting order, giving more opportunities to the hitters behind him. Most of the guys on the list hit leadoff (Biggio, Henderson, Dykstra, Knoblauch) or No. 3. the 1996 version of A-Rod hit second (with Ken Griffey, Edgar Martinez and Jay Buhner following) and the 2007 version hit cleanup, the only cleanup hitter on the list.

The most surprising name on the list might be Knoblauch, especially since he also has the lowest home run total. Despite finishing last in the AL in home runs, however, that Twins teams still scored 877 runs. No. 3 hitter Paul Molitor hit .341 and drove in 113 runs despite hitting just nine home runs.

Anyway, you'll notice most of names here consist of (A) Ted Williams, or (B) players from the high-octane offensive period of the late '90s. The most runs scored in the 1950s, '60s and '70s belongs to Billy Williams of the 1970 Cubs, with 137 runs. That team did score more than 800 runs. The most impressive run-scoring feat during that time might have been Tim Raines, who scored 133 runs for the 1983 Expos, a team that scored just 677 runs overall. Raines scored nearly 20 percent of the Expos' runs that year.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

The all-time all-old team

June, 20, 2011
6/20/11
6:30
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In honor of 80-year-old Jack McKeon taking over the reins of the Marlins, we present the all old-team. If you weren't at least 40 years old, you're too young for this club.

C -- Carlton Fisk, 1990 White Sox (42). Only two catchers have caught at least 100 games at 40 or older, with Fisk and Bob Boone each doing it twice. In 1990, Fisk caught 116 games (and played in 137 overall) and hit .285/.378/.451 with 18 home runs and 65 RBIs. His OPS+ was eighth-best in the American League among all hitters. He even stole seven bases -- more than Joe DiMaggio ever stole in a single season.

1B -- Darrell Evans, 1985 Tigers (40). You'd think first base would be the refuge of old hitters who could still rake, but such is not the case. Evans hit .257/.359/.501 with 34 home runs and 99 RBIs, making him the only 40-year-old first baseman (minimum 50 percent of games played at first base) to hit more than 20 home runs or drive in 70. Pete Rose did hit .325 at age 40, although with a homer, and 45-year-old Julio Franco hit .309 in part-time duty for the Braves in 2004.

2B -- Joe Morgan, 1984 A's (40). Only five players have played 100 games at second base at age 40: Morgan, Craig Biggio, Jeff Kent, Rabbit Maranville and Nap Lajoie. Morgan, Maranville and Lajoie are all Hall of Famers and Biggio and Kent may get there. None of them really hit all that, but in his final season in the majors at least Morgan drew a lot of walks to post a good on-base percentage. His final line: .244/.356/.351 with six home runs and 43 RBIs.

3B -- Graig Nettles, 1985 Padres (40). Nettles hit .261/.363/.420 with 15 home runs and 61 RBIs, edging out Hall of Famer Luke Appling, who hit .314 but with no home runs for the 1948 White Sox.

SS -- Luke Appling, 1949 White Sox (42). Appling was back at shortstop in 1949 and hit .301/.439/.394, ranking second in the AL in on-base percentage. He drew 121 walks ... and struck out just 24 times.

LF -- Ted Williams, 1960 Red Sox (41). In his final season, Williams hit .316/.451/.645 with 29 home runs and 72 RBIs in 113 games. There was stiff competition for this slot: Barry Bonds had a .480 OBP at age 42, Stan Musial hit .330 at age 41 and 40-year-old Rickey Henderson hit .315 with 89 runs scored for the '99 Mets.

CF -- Willie Mays, 1971 Giants (40). Mays had lost a step in the field, but thanks to 112 walks led the NL with a .425 on-base percentage. He added 18 home runs and scored 82 runs. two other 40-year-olds have been regular center fielders in recent years: Kenny Lofton in 2007 and Steve Finley in 2006.

RF -- Ty Cobb, 1927 A's (40). Not a bad outfield, eh? Cobb hit .357 with 93 RBIs and 104 runs, edging out Sam Rice's 1930 season with the Senators (.349, 121 runs). Rice was one of the great 40-and-over performers, racking up 551 hits from his age-40 season onward (second only to Pete Rose).

P -- Randy Johnson, 2004 Diamondbacks (40). Johnson went 16-14 with a 2.60 and led the NL with 290 strikeouts while pitching 245 2/3 innings. And here's the thing: He finished second in the NL Cy Young vote to 41-year-old Roger Clemens, who went 18-4 with a 2.98 ERA and 218 strikeouts in 214 innings. Johnson had the better season. The list of 40-and-over great pitchers is a long one, from Cy Young to Warren Spahn (23-7 age 42) to Phil Niekro to Nolan Ryan to Jamie Moyer. Since 1901, Niekro has the most wins from his age-40 season on with 121, followed by Moyer's 103.
To go with our Willie Mays package today, SportsNation worked up a list ranker with 30 of the greatest players of all time. Don't agree with me that Willie Mays was the greatest ever? Then Click here to vote yourself.

Here's my quick list without spending too much time thinking about it:

1. Willie Mays: He could hit, hit for power, run the bases and field with the best we've ever seen. Could have won as many as 10-11 MVP Awards.
2. Barry Bonds: If he had played center field instead of left, I'd consider him for No. 1.
3. Babe Ruth: I'd like to see him hitting 95-mph fastballs on a regular basis.
4. Hank Aaron: A testament to longevity, consistency, durability and greatness.
5. Stan Musial: Won three MVPs and finished second four other times.
6. Ted Williams: Maybe the greatest hitter of all time, but I give Musial the slight all-around edge.
7. Albert Pujols: Barring injury, he's this good.
8. Roger Clemens: We don't know what he did and if it helped. But we know what he did on the field. Greatest pitcher of all time.
9. Mike Schmidt: Dominated the mid-'70s to the mid-'80s. Eight-time home run champ and one of best fielding third basemen ever.
10. Walter Johnson: Could have dominated in any era.

11. Honus Wagner: Won batting titles, ran the bases and hit for power in the dead-ball era.
12. Lou Gehrig: Only strike against him is he didn't play a premium defensive position.
13. Alex Rodriguez: You can't deny the numbers.
14. Lefty Grove: The most underrated great pitcher of all time. Won nine ERA titles.
15. Mickey Mantle: If only he had stayed healthy.
16. Ty Cobb: Would love to go back in time and bring him back to 2011.
17. Josh Gibson: They say he hit 'em longer than the Babe.
18. Joe Morgan: The most underrated great position player of all time. Did everything well.
19. Rickey Henderson: The object is to score runs and nobody has scored more than Rickey.
20. Greg Maddux: 355 wins, fourth-most starts, more pitches painting black than anyone.

21. Cal Ripken: Overrated as a hitter, underrated as a fielder.
22. Tom Seaver: Mets fans still can't believe they traded him.
23. Pedro Martinez: At his peak, the best ever. Four pitches that made batters cry.
24. Frank Robinson: And to think he was only third-best NL outfielder of the early '60s.
25. Johnny Bench: Knees gave out, but those first 12 seasons were amazing.
26. Satchel Paige: Was he even the best Negro Leagues pitcher?
27. Rogers Hornsby: No denying his hitting numbers. Too low? Maybe so.
28. Pete Alexander: Won 94 games over one three-year span, impressive even for the time.
29. Cy Young: Yes, you can say I'm disrespecting the 19th century.
30. Sandy Koufax: A little bit of a product of his time and a huge home/road splits, plus short career for this list.

Follow David on Twitter: @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog: @espn_sweet_spot.
After listing the youngest MVP winners in my previous post, here's a list of the all-time all-young team, the best seasons by players in their age-22 (or younger) seasons*:

C -- Johnny Bench, 1970 Reds (22). The MVP winner led the NL with 45 home runs and 148 RBIs and won the Gold Glove after throwing out 48 percent of basestealers. According to Baseball-Reference's WAR figure, three of the top four 22-and-under catcher seasons belong to Bench (Bill Freehan's 1964 sneaks in). That's why Bench was the most popular baseball player in the early '70s.

1B -- Jimmie Foxx, 1929 A's (21). Only three first basemen accumulated a 5.0 WAR or better at 22 or younger: Foxx (twice), Stuffy McInnis (twice) and Hal Trosky. Foxx hit .354 with 33 home runs and led the AL with a .463 on-base percentage in '29.

2B -- Eddie Collins, 1909 A's (22). I think we'll find that most of the big offensive seasons at these young ages came from outfielders. Based on WAR, Collins is a landslide winner for his sterling .347/.417/.450 line from '09. Tack on 67 steals and great defense and he's an amazing four wins better than the next-best season, Joe Morgan's 1965 campaign for Houston.

3B -- Eddie Mathews, 1953 Braves (21). Mathews' second season in the bigs was so spectacular -- 47 home runs, 135 RBIs, .406 OBP, .627 slugging -- that it put unfair expectations on him the rest of his career. He remained one of the NL's best players throughout his 20s, but his last All-Star appearance came when he was 30.

SS -- Alex Rodriguez, 1996 Mariners (20). Slight edge over Cal Ripken's 1983 or A-Rod's 1998. In '96, in his first full season, he hit line drive after line drive after line drive. He hit .356 with 54 doubles and 36 home runs and didn't turn 21 until late in July.

LF -- Ted Williams, 1941 Red Sox (22). Rickey Henderson was awesome in '80 (100 steals, .420 OBP), but Ted hit .406.

CF -- Cesar Cedeno, 1972 Astros (21). Hit .320/.385/.537 in the Astrodome, with 55 stolen bases. At the time, he looked like a sure bet Hall of Famer. As predicted, many great young center fielders to choose from -- Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle, Ken Griffey Jr., Tris Speaker, Andruw Jones ... which tells how good Cedeno was.

RF -- Ty Cobb, 1909 Tigers (22). Won the Triple Crown while also leading the league in runs, hits, stolen bases, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. I'd say that was a pretty good season.

P -- Dwight Gooden, 1985 Mets (20). Went 24-4 with a 1.53 ERA, 16 complete games and eight shutouts. Should have won the MVP Award, but received just one first-place vote. Strange because Roger Clemens would win the AL MVP the next season with an identical 24-4 record.

P -- Bob Feller, 1940 Indians (21). If you think Gooden was worked hard, Feller went 27-11 with 31 complete games and 320 innings pitched.

P -- Vida Blue, 1971 A's (21). As mentioned earlier, he's the youngest player to win the MVP Award. With a blazing fastball, he went 24-8 with a 1.82 ERA and 301 strikeouts in 312 innings. He had a long, successful career, but was never again as dominant.

P --Bert Blyleven, 1973 Twins (22). People forget how good Blyleven was at a young age. He went 20-17, but led the AL in adjusted ERA and threw nine shutouts while pitching 325 innings.

P -- Joe Wood, 1912 Red Sox (22). His 34-5 record was impressive even for 1912. They called him Smoky because of his fastball, and Walter Johnson once said Wood threw harder. Wood led the Red Sox to the World Series title but a broken thumb the next season led to arm problems that eventually ended his pitching career (he made it back to the majors as an outfielder).

*22 as of June 30 of that season.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.

Replacing superstars through history

February, 14, 2011
2/14/11
2:44
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Albert Pujols reportedly turned down the Cards’ last offer and we’re almost at his Wednesday deadline. Which suggests to me that there's a very real possibility that, at this time next year, we're going to be wondering what the Cardinals are going to do without him.

Great players change teams all the time, of course, whether via free agency or trades, and their former teams recover. But if Pujols leaves the Cardinals, it might be different. Because Pujols might be the best player in baseball. What happens when that guy leaves? What happens when the player who leaves is irreplaceable?

Using Baseball Reference's Wins Above Replacement leaderboard for every season since 1900, I've found eight players who led their respective league in WAR and moved on before the next season. Here are those players, and how their teams fared in the aftermath:

Jason Giambi, 2001 Oakland A's: In 2001, Giambi was 30 years old and absolutely destroying AL pitching. He hit .342/.447/.660 with 38 homers. He came in second in the AL MVP race, leading the A's to 102 wins and a wild-card berth. In 2002, with Giambi on the Yankees, the A's replaced him with Scott Hatteberg and upgraded to Mark Ellis at second base. They did even better, winning 103 games (although their run differential was worse) and the AL West. The A's went to the playoffs three times in the five years after his departure.

[+] Enlarge
Alex Rodriguez
AP Photo/Donna McWilliamAlex Rodriguez left Seattle for the Rangers (and $252 million) following the 2000 season, but the Mariners rebounded well.
Alex Rodriguez, 2000 Seattle Mariners: A-Rod's last season with the M's was his best year ever, as he hit .316/.420/.606 with 41 homers, 134 runs and 132 RBIs to finish third in the AL MVP race. The Mariners won 91 games and the wild card and advanced to the ALCS before being defeated by the Yankees. Amazingly, after plugging Carlos Guillen in at shortstop and reaching across the Pacific to bring over Ichiro, they would win 116 games in 2001, setting a record for the most regular-season victories ever.

Barry Bonds, 1992 Pittsburgh Pirates: Before he became the Home Run King and the face of the Steroid Era, Bonds was just the best player in baseball for the small-market Pirates. At 27, Bonds won the NL MVP by hitting .311/.456/.624 (a 205 OPS+) with 34 homers, 39 steals AND won a Gold Glove. The Pirates won 96 games, the NL East, and came within one out of going to the World Series. After the season, Bonds signed with the Giants. The Pirates never recovered. They replaced him with Al Martin, a good hitter but a poor all-around player, finished with 75 wins in 1993, and haven't finished above .500 since.

Sandy Koufax, 1966 Los Angeles Dodgers: Koufax suffered from incredibly painful arthritis and ligament damage, exacerbated by the incredible workload he shouldered. In 1966, Koufax gutted through an incredible season, winning 27 games and striking out 317 batters. His 1.73 ERA sparkled and he was worth 9.9 wins above replacement. The Dodgers won the NL pennant with 95 victories. Without Koufax in '67, the pitching was still good, but nowhere near as dominant as it had been, dropping from first overall in runs allowed to fifth. The Dodgers only won 73 games and finished eighth in the National League.

Enos Slaughter, 1942 St. Louis Cardinals: Slaughter was 26 when he hit .318/.412/.494 to class the National League. His Cardinals won 106 games and the World Series. But there was a war on, and Slaughter missed the next three seasons to military service. Thanks largely to the farm system Branch Rickey built, the Cardinals didn't feel the effects of missing their biggest stars like other teams did and won the next two pennants.

Ted Williams, 1942 Boston Red Sox: Like Slaughter, Williams entered the service after winning both the traditional and the sabermetric triple crown, hitting .356/.499/.648 (a 216 OPS+) with 36 homers. With him, the Sox won 93 games and finished second in the AL. In the three years he was gone, they finished no better than 77-77, and stumbled badly. When Williams came back in 1946, the Sox went to the World Series and came within a game of winning it all.

Rogers Hornsby, 1927 New York Giants: Hornsby played every game for the Giants, hitting .351/.448/.586 with 26 homers and went 22-10 as an interim manager. So when he was abruptly traded that winter for two relative unknowns, everyone was shocked. The New York Times called it "the most mysterious trade in baseball history." What happened? TCM will have the story later this week on his blog. The Giants actually improved from 92 to 93 wins, but still finished behind the Cardinals for the NL pennant. They would have won easily if they'd hung on to Rajah.

Babe Ruth, 1919 Boston Red Sox: Ruth was only 24 and a full-time outfielder for the first time when he hit .322/.456/.657, setting a new MLB record with 29 homers. While Ruth helped the Sox win the 1918 World Series, by 1919 Boston was not a good club, finishing five games below .500 and in sixth place in the AL. So contrary to popular belief, Frazee's sale of the Babe didn't ruin his club or break up a dynasty. But it sure didn't help either. The Sox wouldn't finish above .500 again until 1935.

So what did we learn from this exercise? First, that it's exceedingly rare for a player of Pujols' caliber to change teams. Most clubs, when faced with a choice about whether to keep or let their superstar leave, will find a way to get by. But of those who do part company, there’s a distinct difference between those who adequately prepare for the loss and those that don’t. So the next year will be crucial for the Cardinals to get their house in order.

The Common Man writes for The Platoon Advantage on the SweetSpot Network, and you can follow him on Twitter.
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