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Last year, You Can't Predict Baseball came up with bold predictions for the year. We had a lot of fun coming up with them, and then laughing at how hilariously wrong they were at the end of the year. This year, we're bringing these predictions to SweetSpot, along with explanations for some of them. Keep in mind, these predictions are supposed to be bold, but not insane -- even we know the Orioles aren't going to the playoffs in 2012.

Los Angeles Angels: Kendrys Morales stays healthy all year.

Houston Astros: Bud Norris is top five in K/9 in the NL. We figured something good had to happen to the Astros, right? Norris actually has a pretty nice career K/9.

Oakland Athletics: Yoenis Cespedes is their starting center fielder by Memorial Day.

Toronto Blue Jays: Brandon Morrow makes the jump to elite starting pitcher. He's struck out more than 10 batters per 9 innings two years running, though his ERAs have remained ugly. We think this is the year his results finally match the stuff, especially considering his declining walk rate.

Atlanta Braves: Julio Teheran has more wins than Tim Hudson.

Milwaukee Brewers: Rickie Weeks leads the team in home runs. He was fourth on the team last year, with 20. In front of him were Corey Hart with 26, Ryan Braun with 33, and Prince Fielder with 38. Fielder is gone, and for this prediction we'll assume Braun will miss a third of the year due to a suspension. It's not too bold to think Weeks could pass Hart in 2012.

St. Louis Cardinals: Carlos Beltran outproduces Albert Pujols from last year. Albert Pujols was great last year, but not quite best-player-of-his-generation Albert Pujols. If healthy, it's not absurd to think of Beltran outproducing Pujols' 5.1 WAR in 2011.

Chicago Cubs: Matt Garza isn't their best pitcher. It'll be Ryan Dempster, who had great peripherals but bad results last year.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Aaron Hill will be good again. He was great with them in limited time, and Arizona's park is quite hitter-friendly.

Los Angeles Dodgers: James Loney will be a top-three first baseman in the National League. Many thanks to Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness for somewhat alerting us to this one. We just decided to take it semi-absurdly far.

San Francisco Giants: Madison Bumgarner is their best pitcher. In terms of ERA, he already wasn't very far behind Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, and his K/BB ratio eclipsed theirs by quite a bit.

Cleveland Indians: They'll have the best pitching in the American League Central. We're banking on Ubaldo Jimenez, making a major comeback to something closer to what he was in 2010, and the rest of the staff displaying the good that they did in 2011. We're also counting on the Tigers' starters not being very impressive behind Justin Verlander, which is bold but not quite insane, and the pitching of the White Sox, Twins and Royals not being able to keep up with Cleveland's.

Seattle Mariners: Jesus Montero catches 100-plus games. The Mariners probably aren't going to compete, so why not try and play him where he'll accrue the most value?

Miami Marlins: Despite all their new acquisitions and the hype, they still finish fourth in the NL East. When you think about it, this one isn't so crazy. If Josh Johnson isn't healthy and maybe even if he is their pitching still trails that of Philadelphia, Washington, and Atlanta; even with Heath Bell, we don't think their bullpen is as good, either. Their offense might be better than some of those teams', but the Marlins were quite a bit below league average offensively last year and we're not sure how much Jose Reyes is going to make up for that.

New York Mets: Mike Pelfrey is the worst starter in the NL. Pelfrey's been pretty terrible two of the past three years, and now they're moving the fences in at Citi Field. He was far better in his huge home stadium, but we're guessing with the moved-in walls he'll be significantly worse at Citi. Here at YCPB, we actually don't think the Mets are going to be quite as dire as many are saying, even if they do come in last place in the NL East - but Pelfrey won't be a bright spot.

Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg has a 17-strikeout game.

Baltimore Orioles: Matt Wieters is the best catcher in the AL. A lot of people are so obsessed with Wieters not matching the hype that they didn't notice he became a plus offensive performer last year, to go along with very good defense. His taking the next step isn't that bold as predictions go, especially if Joe Mauer has to move off catcher.

San Diego Padres: Luke Gregerson is a top-three closer in the NL.

Philadelphia Phillies: Cole Hamels is their best starter. And this isn't meant to be a slight to Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee, but considering their ages and the fact that Hamels is pretty darn good himself, plus a possible boost from a contract year...

Pittsburgh Pirates: Charlie Morton is their All-Star.

Texas Rangers: Yu Darvish isn't their best starter -- but he's still good. And we think he'll be pretty good, we just think Derek Holland will become more consistently good, or Matt Harrison will put up numbers like his 2011.

Tampa Bay Rays: James Shields will have no complete games. Predicting someone to have no complete games might not seem bold, but it is when it's a guy who was known as "Complete Game James" last season. Shields did have 11 complete games in 2011, an almost unheard-of number these days, but he had no complete games in 2009 or 2010.

Boston Red Sox: No one hits 30 home runs. This might seem crazy when you consider their great offensive numbers last year, but only one player on their team hit 30 home runs and it was Jacoby Ellsbury with 32.

Cincinnati Reds: Brandon Phillips is the best second baseman in the NL.

Colorado Rockies: Jamie Moyer will have the best HR/9 on the staff.

Kansas City Royals: They reach .500. While their pitching won't be great, their offense will take a big step forward this year. Combined with the rest of their division being the Tigers and some dumpster fires, it's not that difficult to see it happening.

Detroit Tigers: They score fewer runs than they did in 2011. Yes, that’s even with Fielder. It's not improbable that Jhonny Peralta, Alex Avila and Delmon Young regress quite a bit from their numbers with Detroit last year, and that Prince Fielder's production "only" makes up for the offensive loss of Victor Martinez in 2012. They'll still have a very good offense, though.

Minnesota Twins: Joe Mauer hits 15 home runs.

Chicago White Sox: Robin Ventura gets ejected more times than Ozzie Guillen. Look at the state of the White Sox. We'd get ejected too.

New York Yankees: Hiroki Kuroda leads the team in ERA.

You Can't Predict Baseball is an affiliate of the SweetSpot network.

To “Spahn and Sain and Pray for Rain," Detroit fans will have to come up a new baseball mantra ... just as soon as they can come up with a rain-related word that rhymes with Verlander.

For the second time in a week, the league’s best pitcher had his playoff start shortened by rain when Game 1 of the ALCS was delayed in the fifth inning. Not that Justin Verlander was in top form anyway. His command was off and he allowed three runs in four innings – which was enough to lose the game -- and threw 82 pitches. He threw 49 in the first two innings.

So how does this affect the series? Well, it definitely doesn’t help the Tigers, who need Verlander to be the ace he was during the season. Manager Jim Leyland said he and his staff would have to talk and figure out what to do about Game 4 Wednesday. His choices are to start Verlander on short rest or go with previously scheduled starter Rick Porcello. Porcello pitched two innings in relief of Verlander but only threw 22 pitches, so he still could be able to go Wednesday. Regardless of which way Leyland goes, this is the bottom line: The less Verlander is on the mound, the worse it is for the Tigers. Losing Game 1 puts them in a big hole.

Texas starter CJ Wilson, meanwhile, couldn’t be happy with the decision to resume the game after the first rain delay in the top of the fifth inning. Wilson struggled the first two innings — five baserunners — but he had gotten into a groove, striking out the side in the fourth and taking a 3-0 lead into the fifth. He gave up a leadoff double to Ramon Santiago when the clouds opened and the umpires halted the game. Play resumed after a 41-minute delay, but only for 13 minutes. Which was just enough for Wilson to give up a run-scoring double, walk three batters (one intentionally), throw a wild pitch, load the bases and turn his 3-0 lead into a 3-2 lead before the rains resumed. And that lead held up thanks to the exceptional work by the Texas bullpen.

Alexi Ogando continued his dominance of the Tigers, throwing two scoreless innings and picking up the victory (in an official scorer's decision because Wilson did not pitch five innings). He was the only Texas starter to beat Detroit this season, going 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA. Manager Ron Washington held him out of the postseason rotation, though, out of concern that he had already been extended enough in his first full season as starter. He’s been lights-out in relief, adding great depth to the Texas bullpen. The Rangers relievers were great, allowing no runs and only a bunt single in 4 1/3 innings. They struck out eight, including three by Neftali Feliz.

In addition to Verlander, the Tigers must also be concerned about the loss of Delmon Young from the lineup. They definitely missed him Saturday. The Tigers staff can pitch as well as possible — but Detroit still will need to score runs.

Trade rumors have been swirling around Texas Rangers third baseman Michael Young for months. His name came up at the end of the season and rumors have persisted through all of the winter. The only trade rumor in all of sports that has been more persistent and annoying is the talk about Carmelo Anthony. I'll never understand what it is that makes it so hard for a club to either trade a guy or make a definitive declaration that he's your guy and let some form of calm and order reign.

But this has become very difficult for the Rangers, and Young once again made headlines when he recently said that he expected to be traded because he feels he has been "misled and manipulated on different occasions."

Are the Rangers the only ones who were surprised by this? Were even the Rangers surprised? Young has become the face of the Rangers and has been a model citizen, but you can only push a guy so far, and it's been going on with him for years. Granted, he's been paid well for what he's done with the Rangers. But it's nice to feel like the team is behind you, respects you and views you as an important piece of their success. Young's contributions for a decade have certainly warranted Texas' respect.

But this is not the first time the Rangers have taken advantage of Young's versatility and willingness by moving him to make space for another player. When he was coming up through their farm system, he moved from shortstop to second base because Alex Rodriguez was already occupying that position. Of course, you can't expect A-Rod to move for a youngster coming up through the minor leagues. Young deserved to be the one who moved in that circumstance.

But, after that, the Rangers expected Young to be the one to move to make way for incoming players. When they traded A-Rod for Alfonso Soriano, Young moved back to his old position at shortstop.

Two years ago, the Rangers moved him again, this time to third base, when they decided they wanted their middle infield to be Elvis Andrus (shortstop) and Ian Kinsler (second base).

And this winter, they got Adrian Beltre to play third base, moving Young once again to a purported DH/utility role. Not exactly what you'd typically expect for a long-tenured player, club leader and five-time All Star who is making in excess of $13 million a year.

Apparently it's not what Young expected, either.

He's been a good go-along guy, but you can only move a player around so much without so much as a courtesy call before he'll snap and say something like this. I'm not 100 percent on Young's side either, because he could have also handled this with a courtesy call rather than letting it play out in the media like the Rangers front office did. Young also mishandled this by moving away from the typical, quiet class he has shown before, but the Rangers committed the first offense.

If we're keeping track, you could actually say that the Rangers made the first, second and third offenses. And all of those moves were on top of letting trade rumors play out for months. It's not fun to dangle in the wind, and although that's sometimes the name of the game. But a classy, franchise player deserves better than the way the Rangers have treated Young.

It's unfortunate that something like this should become such an apparent no-win situation. But the Rangers can serve as a great example to all other teams that a little communication can go a long way.

Austin Swafford runs the SweetSpot Astros blog at Austin's Astros 290 Blog.

Is the Blue Jays' next move going to include Michael Young? Richard Griffin thinks yeah, maybe:

Need a clue that something with the Jays and Young could be in the works? Vernon Wells was asked during a Tuesday conference call where he’d been when Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos called to ask him to waive his no-trade clause, to consent to go to Anaheim in trade.

“I was at the Mavericks-Lakers game with my wife and, ironically, with Michael Young and his wife,” Wells said. “I got the call at halftime and missed most of the rest of the game.”

Ironically? Why would Wells use that word for something that was merely coincidental?

The reality of the financial crisis in Texas is that ever since the Rangers signed Beltre to play third, trading Young and his salary has been a distinct possibility. The Jays, after clearing the decks of the remaining $86 million on Wells’ contract — even including a reported $5 million cash payment to the Angels, even with taking two veteran salaries totalling $11 million off Anaheim’s hands — would have room for Young and his $16 million per over the next three years. If we’ve learned anything from Anthopoulos’s year-plus as GM, it’s that if there is a player of talent and controllability on the market, the Jays will ask about him and kick the tires.

On Wednesday, SI.com named Anthopoulos baseball’s top winner of the 2010-11 off-season. That’s very nice, but as
far as Jays fans are concerned, Anthopoulos needs to do far more heading into next season in terms of trying to win now. Should fans simply cancel their 2011 season tickets and come back in 2012 when they are ready to compete?

One, I'm not sure if Griffin is joking about Wells' use of ironically. He must know, yes, that ironically is more often used incorrectly -- synonymously for "coincidentally" -- than correctly?

And two, while Anthopoulos shouldn't exactly forget 2011 season-ticket owners, he can't make every move as if 2012 doesn't exist, either. Not to mention 2013. Which is to say, $48 million is a lot of money for a guy who's going to be worth maybe $30 million over the next three years. At best, considering that he's 34 years old.

As Griffin notes, SI.com's Jon Heyman just named Alex Anthopoulos this winter's big winner ... which is great, except it's still winter. And there's no better way to spoil a winter than commit to overpaying, for multiple years, an overrated player in his mid 30s.

Well, this is a nice little collection the Rangers are building. Richard Durrett:

The Texas Rangers signed free agent pitcher Yoshinori Tateyama on Tuesday to a one-year contract with two years of club options.

Tateyama, a right-hander who turns 35 the day after Christmas, will be competing for a bullpen spot.

Tateyama, a sidearm pitcher, had a career-low 1.80 ERA in 58 appearances for the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters in the Japanese Pacific League last season with four saves and 25 holds. He held opposing batters to a .213 average with 11 walks and 59 strikeouts and gave up three home runs all year. He was especially effective against right-handed batters, who hit .186 against him.

The Rangers' front office seems to have developed something of an obsession with right-handed relief pitchers. Last season they employed four of the league's best in Neftali Feliz, Darren O'Day, Frank Francisco, and Alexi Ogando. Mark Lowe's pretty good, too, and they just re-signed him.

And now Tateyama makes six.

Remember, it wasn't so long ago that teams carried six relievers, period (and not so long before that, teams carried five). Even considering today's Super Expanding Bullpens, you wouldn't think the Rangers would routinely feature eight relievers. Which means either they're going with just one lefty or they're going to deal one of their righties.

Or perhaps -- most smartly but least likely -- they're going to seriously explore the possibility that Neftali Feliz can become a starter again, and give them 200 good innings rather than 70 good ones.

Remember when Cliff Lee was unbeatable? Seems like a vague memory now ...

While Lee matched Tim Lincecum on the scoreboard for the first six innings of Game 6, he wasn't really matching him.

In the second inning, Pat Burrell lined one of Lee's pitches into deep left field (where it was caught).

In the third inning, Freddy Sanchez lined one of Lee's pitches up the middle, and Lee somehow snagged the ball on its way into center field.

In the fourth inning, Buster Posey lined one of Lee's pitches into the right-field corner, just a foot or two foul.

In the sixth inning, Posey lined one of Lee's pitches deep into right-center field, where Nelson Cruz was able to flag it down.

You give up enough line drives, and eventually some of them are going to start falling in for singles and doubles. Which is what happened in the seventh inning, when three Giants hit Lee's pitches hard; one went for a ground-ball single, one for a line-drive single, and one for a fly-ball home run.

And with those three swings -- and particularly the last of them -- Game 5 and the entire World Series felt essentially over. Which it was. Because Lincecum -- as he was in 2008 and 2009, and in April and September of 2010 -- was simply too good to lose.

Yes, the Giants' dominance in this World Series did surprise most of us. But there have been far, far bigger surprises:

In 2006, the 83-78 Cardinals beat the 95-67 Tigers in five games.

In 2003, the 91-71 Marlins beat the 101-61 Yankees in six games.

In 1995, the 90-54 Braves beat the 100-44 Indians in six games.

In 1990, the 91-71 Reds beat the 103-59 Athletics in four games.

In 1988, the 94-67 Dodgers beat the 104-58 Athletics in five games.

In 1974, the 90-72 A's beat the 102-60 Dodgers in five games.

In 1969, the 100-62 Mets beat the 109-53 Orioles in five games.

And perhaps most famously, in 1954 the 97-57 Giants swept the 111-43 Indians.

In most or all of those cases, the eventual winners entered the World Series as big underdogs. In every case, what had come before quickly seemed irrelevant to the proceedings. Sometimes the winners benefited from more than the usual good luck (the '69 Mets come to mind). Sometimes the losers just flat-out beat themselves (the '06 Tigers come to mind). Usually, the winners just flat-out outplayed the losers.

Which was pretty obviously the case in 2010. In retrospect, the Giants shouldn't have been big underdogs against the Rangers ... and in retrospect, it's not clear that they were big underdogs. While it's true that most of the pundits predicted a Rangers victory, the predictions were mild: Rangers in six games, mostly, or seven. One computer simulation showed the Rangers with a 54 percent chance of winning ... which meant the Giants had a 46 percent chance of winning.

And it's probably worth mentioning that the Giants actually won more games than the Rangers during the regular season (and finished with a better run differential).

It's fair to be surprised that the Giants won in five games. Historically, most World Series have lasted longer than five games. It's fair to be slightly surprised that the Giants won the World Series at all, because most of the numbers suggested that the Rangers were the slightly better team.

Anyone who is shocked by the 2010 World Series hasn't been paying attention, over the years. The Giants were a very good team that played better than another very good team over the course of five games. If they play another five games next week, everything might be different.

They're not going to play another five games. This one's over. The great majority of Giants fans have never seen their team win a World Series. No Giants fan has seen their team win a World Series since moving to California more than a half-century ago.

Now they've got one. And as anyone who followed the Royals in '85 or the Twins in '87 or the Reds in '90 or the Cardinals in '06 will tell you, the only thing that matters is getting one. All the rest is details.

Meanwhile, as a baseball fan (as opposed to a Giants fan), it's really easy to enjoy this team's success. The Giants wear classic uniforms in a beautiful ballpark. Their roster is studded with fascinating players like Tim Lincecum, Pablo Sandoval and Brian Wilson. Their manager was forced to make any number of tough decisions down the stretch and into the postseason, and nearly all of them worked brilliantly.

This one's for the fans who love the Giants, mostly. But there's plenty left over for the rest of us, too.

Once "Child Hell Flight" gets canceled, maybe there will be room for my favorite idea for a reality show: "When Owners Attack" ...

The CEO of the Texas Rangers called New York Yankees fans "violent," "apathetic" and "an embarrassment" for their behavior during the American League Championship Series in an interview on Monday with ESPN Radio in Dallas.

Responding to a question about Rangers fans' demeanor during the postseason, Chuck Greenberg digressed into a critique of Yankees fans which included an unflattering characterization.

"I think our fans have been great," Greenberg said on the "Ben and Skin Show" on 103.3 KESN. "I think particularly in Game 3 of the World Series they just blew away anything I've seen in any venue during the postseason. I thought Yankee fans, frankly, were awful. They were either violent or apathetic, neither of which is good. So I thought Yankee fans were by far the worst of any I've seen in the postseason. I thought they were an embarrassment."

Greenberg praised Rangers fans for backing their team in Game 2 of the ALCS after having blown Game 1 at home, in which they took a 5-0 lead only to lose to the Yankees 6-5.

"I thought where our fans were really amazing was in Game 2 against the Yankees," he said. "Because Game 1 was a real gut wrencher, you know, it was a tough way to lose. I thought our fans were spectacular and you'd be amazed how much our players picked up on that passion and enthusiasm."

This whole business of comparing fans is a pretty slippery business. Yes, fans in New York (and Boston, and Philadelphia) can be crude, obnoxious, and worse. They're also, as a group, more passionate about their teams than fans in other parts of the country. Which isn't to suggest that fans in other parts of the country aren't passionate, too. Or that they're not capable of being obnoxious. Or worse. When I was a kid, somebody at a Royals game set fire to a banner supporting the opposing team. In the 1980 World Series, a Royals fan threw something at Pete Rose. Kansas City.

Meanwhile, Greenberg is lauding Rangers fans ... and Jamey Newberg was more disappointed by those same fans than by anything else that happened in Game 4. The Giants have turned San Francisco into a baseball town ... but we'll see what happens to attendance if the Giants someday sink to last place again.

Like I said, slippery stuff.

In the short term, if Chuck Greenberg really wants to see Cliff Lee pitching in a Rangers uniform next season, he might want to back off the rhetoric about Yankees fans just a notch or three. Because there's such a thing as trying too hard.

When it rains, it pours:

Rangers manager Ron Washington said the club will make a move to replace Alexi Ogando on the World Series roster after the reliever left the game in the sixth inning with a strained left oblique muscle.

"We'll make a move, but he's through," Washington said after his team's 4-0 loss to San Francisco that put the Rangers in a 3-1 hole in the best-of-seven series. "He was doing a great job, too, but that's the way it goes sometimes."

--snip--

The Rangers didn't say who they would add to the roster before Game 5 on Monday night. Texas has to win to force the World Series back to San Francisco, where the Rangers lost the first two games.

Dustin Nippert's leading at the turn, which must have everyone associated with the Rangers turning cartwheels. Because the No. 1 ingredient in a three-game winning streak against a good team is a middle reliever with a strained relationship with the strike zone. Nothing like a couple of walks in the sixth inning to inspire the troops, don't you know.

Seriously, this is just another headache for Ron Washington. For most of the season, he was blessed with four excellent right-handed relievers: Ogando, Frank Francisco, Darren O'Day and Neftali Feliz.

Now he's down to just two. And he won't use one of them unless the Rangers are either protecting a tiny lead or trailing by six runs in the ninth.

Game 3 wasn't about the breaks (unless you count Mitch Moreland hitting a home run against a left-handed pitcher).

Game 3 wasn't about the managers (though it would have been, if Buster Posey had been able to do something against Darren O'Day).

Game 3 was about the pitchers.

Colby Lewis out-pitched Jonathan Sanchez. Simple as that. And this should have surprised absolutely nobody.

During the regular season, Sanchez went 13-7 with a 3.07 ERA. Meanwhile, Lewis went 12-13 with a 3.72 ERA.

Granted, if that's all you knew, you would be excused for thinking the Giants entered Game 3 with a solid edge on the mound.

But we know so much more. We know that the ERA in the American League is slightly higher than the ERA in the National League (largely because pitchers don't "hit" in American League games). We know that Lewis' team plays in a hitter-friendly ballpark, while Sanchez's team plays in a pitcher-friendly ballpark.

If you've already somehow added all of that up, you know that Lewis's ERA was roughly 16 percent better than league average, and that Sanchez's ERA was roughly 33 percent better than league average.

Still a solid edge for the Giants, you might ... Ah, but we know still so much more. We know that Sanchez struck out roughly twice as many hitters as he walked this season, which is pretty good ... except Lewis struck out three times as many hitters as he walked. We know that Sanchez gave up 21 home runs in 193 innings this season, which is pretty good ... except Lewis gave up exactly as many homers in slightly more innings while facing slightly better hitters.

We know, most of all, that pitchers are most able to control three things: strikeouts, walks, and home runs ... and that in 2010, Lewis was superior to Sanchez in each of those categories. Lewis, in almost every way except the two ways we by which measured pitchers for so many years, out pitched Sanchez in 2010. Considering that the Rangers finished fourth in the American League in scoring and the Giants finished ninth in the National League, we simply had no reason to think the Giants would beat the Rangers in Game 3.

Speaking of non-surprises, I'm not sure that Lewis's season should have been considered a huge surprise. He did enter the season with a 6.71 career ERA in the majors. But even if we ignore his two brilliant seasons in Japan -- during which he went 26-17 with a 2.82 ERA and a Cliff Lee-like strikeout-to-walk ratio -- there have always been reasons to like Lewis.

He has always thrown reasonably hard (roughly as hard as Jonathan Sanchez, in case you didn't know). And before going to Japan, he'd shown a fair amount of promise in the minor leagues. When he was only 23, Lewis earned a rotation slot with the Rangers following two impressive Triple-A stints. Four years later -- having been waived by the Rangers, gone unsigned by the Tigers, and released by the Nationals, Lewis joined the Athletics. He spent roughly half of that season (2007) in the big club's bullpen, didn't pitch well. He spent the other half of that season with Triple-A Sacramento and pitched brilliantly: 1.88 ERA, strikeout-to-walk ratio better than 4.

After which the A's waived him to the Royals, who released him a month later. Having been employed (however sometimes briefly) by five teams in slightly more than three years, Lewis next signed with the Carp of Hiroshima. You know everything since.

What Bruce Bochy knows is that he couldn't have done anything about Lewis in Game 3. Bochy's only real option was getting Travis Ishikawa into the lineup rather than Pablo Sandoval (who took the collar in three at-bats). But even if we mostly ignore those players' respective histories (which favor Sandoval) it's not likely that Ishikawa accounts for three runs that Panda doesn't.

Bochy wasn't out-managed in Game 3; his team was out-hit and out-pitched.

Game 7 might be a different story. Game 7, if it happens, figures to be a rematch of Game 4, Sanchez versus Colby Lewis. And for all the propitious moves that Bochy has made in October, making Sanchez his No. 3 starter might not be one of them.

Since his fantastic start against the Braves in the Division Series, Sanchez has started three games and pitched 12-1/3 innings. If this World Series goes the distance, Sanchez will start two games while Madison Bumgarner -- who pitched better than Sanchez during the regular season, and has pitched better than Sanchez in the postseason -- will have started just once.

If this World Series goes the distance and the Giants lose, all of Bochy's moves might be forgotten because the Giants might have lost because Bochy didn't trust the rookie's numbers.

I started writing about Game 2 in the seventh inning. It looked like the Giants probably would win, but not by much. Maybe by one run, maybe two. I was sticking with my recent obsession with the ways to win: playing better, managing better, getting luckier. And it was going well. The piece was going to anger a bunch of Giants fans, but I'm getting used to that. It might have been one of the best things I ever wrote. (Hey, you'll never be able to prove it wasn't.)

And then Ron Washington did it again.

It's 2-0 in the eighth inning of the second game of the World Series. You've already lost the first game (through no fault of the manager). If you don't win this one, you're in big trouble. You've got tomorrow off. Your best pitcher hasn't pitched in nearly a week, and has pitched only three innings in the last two weeks.

And you never use him. You leave Neftali Feliz rotting away in the bullpen, just as you've left him rotting away through most of October.

Ron Washington didn't cost the Rangers this game. They never scored any runs, and that wasn't his fault. The Rangers were cursed by poor luck twice in the fifth inning: first when Ian Kinsler's long fly ball fell an inch short of carrying the fence, and moments later when David Murphy's liner was snared by Edgar Renteria. If the game had ended after six or seven innings, the Rangers might have taken heart from having played the Giants straight up, just a break or two short of winning, maybe, or at least keeping things interesting.

But you're not allowed to complain about poor luck when you lose by nine runs, or when your relievers give up seven runs in the eighth, or when your relievers walk four hitters in a row.

Especially when you use five relievers, and none of them is your best reliever.

For seven innings, the Rangers were out-lucked, and might have been very slightly outplayed. The rest of the game, the Rangers were badly outplayed. They were also badly outmanaged. Again. And one of these games, it really is going to cost them.

Postscript: The spirit of fairness demands that we at least acknowledge the unlikelihood of what we've just seen. The Texas bullpen finished the regular season with the second-lowest ERA in the American League. Then again, of the five relievers Washington deployed in the bottom of the eighth inning Thursday night, only two -- Darren Oliver and Darren O'Day -- played a material role in that second-lowest ERA. The other three -- Derek Holland, Mark Lowe, and Michael Kirkman -- were bit players in the bullpen's success.

We've seen Ron Washington make one adjustment after a loss. Maybe, just maybe, he'll make another. But first the Rangers have to stop giving up 10 runs per game.

Dave Cameron on our Game 2 starters:

In some ways, C.J. Wilson and Matt Cain are polar opposites. Wilson’s a lefty, while Cain throws with his right hand. Cain throws a ton of fastballs, while Wilson has basically abandoned his this year. Wilson is a guy who gets a lot of grounders, while Cain is one of the most prolific flyball pitchers in the game.

--snip--

Both of these guys kept runs off the board by getting people to hit the ball at their defenders and by keeping their fly balls in the yard. As any regular FanGraphs reader can tell you, these are not things that are usually considered repeatable skills, as history has shown that most pitchers simply can’t sustain the kinds of performances that these guys put up this year.

--snip--

The differences will be obvious. The similarities will be a bit more subtle. But, in the end, it should be a good match-up and a fun game to watch.

The similarities will be more than subtle; they'll be unrecognizable unless both pitchers give up two or three fly balls that die on the warning track.

This is one of those times when statistics really don't do us any good. Has Matt Cain discovered the secret to thriving despite underlying statistics that say he shouldn't? Perhaps. Can C.J. continue, next season and beyond, to give up so few home runs? Perhaps.

But either way, none of that's going to show up tonight. Tonight, it'll just be a couple of talented young men trying to make good pitches, and a bunch of talented young (and middle-aged) men trying to hit them. As Cameron says, it should be fun.

Let's be real clear about this ... David Murphy is not some raw scrub who's likely to wilt under the pressure of actually playing. For most of the past three years, he's been playing when the other team starts a right-handed pitcher (which is most of the time).

Is Murphy a great hitter? No. He is adequate. He's got a career .288/.354/.487 line against right-handed pitchers. Which (again) isn't great.

It's not nearly as good as Vladimir Guerrero's, which shouldn't be a surprise.

But Guerrero is old. Well, actually he's middle-aged. It's his knees that are old. Whichever parts of his body you prefer, he simply isn't the hitter he once was. Guerrero's got a .301/.349/.501 line against righties over the past three seasons. Toss in Guerrero's 35 birthdays (compared to 29 for Murphy), and it's very, very, very difficult to convincingly argue that Guerrero, right now, is a measurably better hitter than Murphy.

Against right-handed pitchers, I mean. Like Matt Cain, for example.

Of course, Vladimir Guerrero's walking a one-way path to Cooperstown. David Murphy isn't. In the event of a tie, you have to go with the Hall of Famer.

But it's not a tie. It's not remotely a tie.

Because fielding counts, too. David Murphy is a pretty good outfielder. At this point in his career, Vladimir Guerrero is a terrible outfielder when well-practiced; at the moment, he's ill-practiced.

This is actually a pretty easy call. In the National League park with a right-hander starting for the Giants, David Murphy is the obvious choice, with Guerrero ready to come off the bench as one of the more talented pinch-hitters in World Series history.

In Game 1, Guerrero's two errors didn't really matter. If he plays right field again in Game 2, he probably won't make two errors. He probably won't make one error. If he does make an error, or doesn't make an error but doesn't get to a ball that Murphy would have, it probably won't matter much.

But what if it does? What if Guerrero makes an error that lets in a run or two, in a one-run game? Doesn't that rank among the great managerial blunders of the 21st century?

Shortly after Game 1, Ron Washington showed little inclination to bench Guerrero in Game 2. But he was probably in a bit of shock. He'd just seen his team give up more than 10 runs for only the third time all year. Maybe he wound up getting a solid night of sleep, woke up refreshed, and came to his senses. Maybe the Rangers will have a real right fielder Thursday night.

Did Bruce Bochy out-manage Ron Washington in Game 1?

Not really. Cliff Lee gave up seven runs, and there wasn't any obvious point at which Washington should have removed Lee before most of the damage was done. With any other pitcher, maybe? But Lee has obviously earned the benefit of the doubt, and the fifth inning is pretty early to go to the bullpen anyway.

Washington's reliever of choice, Darren O'Day, didn't exactly help matters when he gave up a three-run homer to Juan Uribe. But O'Day's got a 1.94 ERA in the past two seasons, and in his career he's held right-handed hitters to a .207/.276/.278 line. Retiring righty hitters is what O'Day does ... except he didn't do it this time. In spades.

Did the Giants catch more than their fair share of breaks?

Not really. I've always been sort of intrigued by the role of "luck" in baseball games, and tonight I decided to count "breaks" ... whatever those are, and everyone's going to come up with a different definition. I think I'll leave this subject for another night, though. Because after the first couple of innings, there just weren't many easily identifiable breaks ... and 16 of the game's 18 runs were scored after the first couple of innings.

Earlier today, I suggested that the Giants could beat the Rangers in the World Series in a variety of ways. Bochy could out-manage Washington. The Giants could catch more breaks than the Rangers. Or -- and this is the most obvious way, and also perhaps the most difficult -- the Giants could actually outplay the Rangers.

Well, that's exactly what happened in Game 1. Sure, we can talk about all those strikeouts recorded by the Texas pitchers (12 for them, only five for San Francisco's). But this time out, the Giants were simply better than Cliff Lee (and Darren O'Day), particularly in the fifth inning when they scored six runs. They were also better than Lee in the third inning, when they scored just twice but forced Lee to throw 32 pitches.

Game 1 wasn't particularly complicated. Cliff Lee never could locate his curveball, and he missed his spots with his fastball -- something he almost never does -- too many times. When he did, the Giants usually took advantage.

For one night ... for one game ... for two innings ... the San Francisco Giants were better than Cliff Lee. And later, their bullpen was better than the Texas Rangers' bullpen.

The Giants just outplayed the Rangers. Sometimes, that's the easiest way to win.

From Joe Sheehan's (subscriber-only) newsletter, just a bit of his cogent pre-Series analysis:

Ron Washington seems intent on starting Vladimir Guerrero in right field in games played without a DH, a decision that makes his team worse. Guerrero was once an athletic, if error-prone, right fielder and a dominant lineup force. Now, he's a creaky 35-year-old who hasn't hit much since June and who had just a .287/.328/.482 line against righties this year. David Murphy is a tougher out against the Giants' righties (.288/.354/.487 career, a little better than that in 2010) and a stronger defensive player. To win any one game against a right-hander this year, you would take Murphy.

The decision is particularly risky because of the park. AT&T Park has a very complicated right field, all angles and mixed elements (brick facade, fencing, scoreboard), with a deep alley. The game's early innings will be played as the sun is setting, making the play of fly balls a challenge. There's a great likelihood of a close game, one in which converting balls in play into outs, not giving up extra bases on hits, will be critical. Trading defense for offense can be a good play; the Rangers are trading defense for legend.

--snip--

I'm reluctant to make a prediction. The edges each team has are small, save for the Giants' bullpen, which i think is well ahead of that of the Rangers, especially given Washington's bizarre Neftail Rules. Washington, in fact, is nearly enough to swing the whole thing for me. His leader-of-men skills may well be fantastic, but men become chess pieces in the World Series, and he doesn't seem to play chess well. Bochy has his peccadilloes, but he's not the guy shoving Vladimir Guerrero's back and legs into a difficult position so he can get a bad matchup into his cleanup spot.

The Giants have three ways to win:

1. Play better,

2. Get lucky, or

3. Grab a couple of games through Bruce Bochy out-managing Ron Washington.

On paper, there's a deficit between the Rangers and the Giants, and that deficit favors the Rangers.

It's not a particularly large deficit, though. It could easily be made up by one of those three things, or some combination of them.

Barring a sweep, though, No. 3 is the only one that's going to get much attention. After every close game, we're going to analyze every move these guys make to death. Maybe Washington will surprise us. But he doesn't seem to be off to a great start.

From Bob Nightengale, here's a wonderful corrective for everyone who thinks Cliff Lee is merely on temporary loan to the Rangers from the Yankees:

"That's the greatest thing, being so close to home," says Kristen, who says she is superstitious and refuses to answer her phone when Lee pitches.

"Cliff can fit in anywhere, but it makes my life a lot easier. We've never had a short commute before. Having a direct flight from Little Rock is great."

Says Greenberg, whose ownership group took over the team in August after winning an auction in U.S. bankruptcy court: "We think we have things to offer from a lifestyle standpoint that are enormous advantages.

"We can't control what the Yankees or any other club chooses to offer. We know we're going to have to be aggressive financially.

"We're not going into this with a pea shooter. The old Rangers are gone."

Perhaps the Rangers' greatest sales pitch simply was having Kristen sit in the visiting family section at Yankee Stadium during the playoffs. She says there were ugly taunts. Obscenities. Cups of beer thrown. Even fans spitting from the section above.

"The fans did not do good things in my heart," Kristen says.

"When people are staring at you, and saying horrible things, it's hard not to take it personal."

After reading all of that, I would put the Yankees' chances of signing Cliff Lee south of 50 percent. Well south.