SweetSpot: Three fixes American League 2011
AL Central: Three fixes for each team
December, 1, 2011
12/01/11
9:35
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
The American League Central may have a reputation as baseball's skinflint division, but such is not the case: The White Sox, Twins and Tigers each had payrolls over $100 million in 2011 and ranked in the top 10 of highest-salaried ballclubs.
The problem was that two of those three teams didn't get much for their money. Considering the issues in Chicago and Minnesota, and the youth and unwillingness to spend big in Cleveland and Kansas City, Detroit will enter 2012 as the heavy favorite to win the division -- no matter what happens in the offseason. But even the Tigers are far from a sure thing and if the Indians can get good health from Shin-Soo Choo and Grady Sizemore in 2012, plus strong seasons from youngsters Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall, their offense could be dramatically improved.
But that's getting ahead of ourselves. Here's a quick look at some action plans and items of interest for the five teams.
Detroit Tigers
1. Third base (Brandon Inge)
With Inge plummeting to a .197 average, Detroit's third-base production was among the worst in the majors. The team has already been linked to free agent Aramis Ramirez and trade discussions with Angels on Maicer Izturis. Both would be big upgrades over Inge, who still has one year remaining on his contract. The dark horse possibility: With Carlos Guillen ($13 million) and Magglio Ordonez ($10 million) off the books, the Tigers pursue Jose Reyes to fill their leadoff void, moving Jhonny Peralta to third base.
Likely solution: As much I love the Reyes idea, Ramirez to Detroit seems like a logical fit. The negatives are Ramirez's lack of range and Detroit's need for a little more athleticism in the lineup.
2. Middle relief
By the postseason, Jim Leyland was down to two relievers he trusted: Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit. Al Alburquerque had a strong rookie season out of nowhere and Phil Coke and Daniel Schlereth provide rare power lefty arms, but Albuquerque and Schlereth still have trouble throwing strikes. The Tigers could go after a low-cost veteran like LaTroy Hawkins, Mike Gonzalez or Darren Oliver, or maybe make a trade pitch for White Sox lefty Matt Thornton, although it seems unlikely Chicago would trade Thornton to a division rival.
Likely solution: A veteran righty-hander, with the Tigers counting on improvement from Coke and Schlereth.
3. A left-handed bat.
The Tigers missed Brennan Boesch's stick in the playoffs, as Victor Martinez and the hobbled Alex Avila were the only threats from the left side (granted, Don Kelly hit a big home run). Boesch's return will help, but Detroit could use a lefty bat to help balance out the lineup.
Likely solution: Andy Dirks may given another shot at that third/fourth outfielder job after hitting .251/.296/.406 as a rookie. But what about Rockies left fielder Seth Smith, who is on the trade block? His career .518 slugging percentage against righties has been bolstered a bit by Coors Field, but he's a solid hitter who could platoon with Ryan Raburn in left, or allow Raburn to play some at second base.
Cleveland Indians
1. Find a left fielder who can hit.
Michael Brantley is a decent asset -- but as a center fielder. The plan to use Brantley as an everyday left fielder was never a great one to begin with, as he's never going to pop many balls over the fence. Brantley, Austin Kearns, Shelley Duncan and Travis Buck all started at least 20 games in left; Jared Head started six games there. As a group, Cleveland's left fielders hit a miserable .233 with seven home runs; only Baltimore and Minnesota received a lower OPS from their left fielders.
Likely solution: Signing Grady Sizemore doesn't necessarily push Brantley back to a starting role in left field. He's best used as a fourth outfielder and Sizemore insurance. Michael Cuddyer may end up getting priced out of Cleveland's range, so how former Twins teammate Jason Kubel? He can play left and step in as designated hitter when Travis Hafner suffers his inevitable breakdown.
2. Find at least one more starter.
Right now, the Indians can only count on Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez for their rotation. Carlos Carrasco is out for the season following Tommy John surgery, Fausto Carmona was terrible and even Josh Tomlin is a question mark after the league caught up to him in the second half (5.26 ERA).
Likely solution: Jeanmar Gomez has been roughed up in two stints in the majors (146 hits in 116 innings), but his Triple-A numbers were solid, if unspectacular. He'll be given another chance in spring training to battle David Huff for a rotation spot.
3. If not Matt LaPorta, who plays first base?
The big prospect acquired in the CC Sabathia deal, LaPorta just hasn't hit as expected, posting a .299 on-base percentage in 2011. The Indians seem ready to punt on LaPorta, who turns 27 in January so isn't even that young. Carlos Santana ended up playing a lot of first base down the stretch, but let's hope he's kept behind the plate, where his hitting value would be maximized.
Likely solution: If free agent Carlos Pena lowers his price, he's a possibility, and the Indians reportedly talked with Houston about Brett Wallace. I'm not sure Wallace is much of an upgrade over LaPorta, but at least he's younger. Casey Kotchman could fit nicely here as lower-cost alternative after posting a .378 OBP with Tampa. And hey, he's only two years older than LaPorta.
Chicago White Sox
1. What do you do with Adam Dunn and Alex Rios?
Dunn hit .159 with a .569 OPS. Rios hit .227 with a .613 OPS. Dunn was the least-valuable position player in baseball, according to Baseball-Reference.com, while Rios was seventh-worst. They made $24 million in 2011 and will make a combined $26 million in 2012. Both are signed through 2014.
Likely solution: General manager Kenny Williams will be busy during the winter meetings, perhaps shopping around guys like Gavin Floyd, John Danks and Matt Thornton, looking for some sort of backup plan to these two pieces of junk. The 40-man roster currently includes Alejandro De Aza, who probably deserves a chance to play somewhere after a nice run (if over his head) last season. Let's put it this way: he can produce an OPS higher than .613.
2. Third base (Brent Morel)
After struggling all season, hitting .250 with just two home runs and seven walks in 328 at-bats through August, Morel suddenly changed his approach in September, got more patient and swung for the fences. He hit just .224 the final month, but with eight home runs and 15 walks. Was it a legitimate improvement, or merely feasting off September tired arms and rookie call-ups?
Likely solution: Morel's hot September earns him another shot.
3. The new manager
This isn't so much an action plan, as a big question mark. Robin Ventura has no previous managerial experience, but the good sign for the White Sox is that respected pitching coach Don Cooper is still around to handle the pitching staff.
Likely solution: If Dunn and Rios stink it up again, it won't matter how well Ventura transitions into the job -- he'll be doomed.
Kansas City Royals
1. Fix the rotation
The Royals had a 4.82 ERA from their starters; only Baltimore was worse in the American League.
Likely solution: The Royals already made a move here, trading Melky Cabrera to the Giants for Jonathan Sanchez. The club also re-signed Bruce Chen. With the signing of Jonathan Broxton, and the emergence of rookie relievers Greg Holland, Louis Coleman and Tim Collins in 2011, fellow 2011 rookie Aaron Crow will be given a shot at the rotation. I have my doubts it will work: Crow walked 31 in 62 innings out of the bullpen and left-handed hitters tagged him for a .311 average and .538 slugging percentage. There's a reason he struggled in the minors as a starter in 2010 (5.73 ERA). He has a great arm, but won't be able to rely on his fastball/slider combo as a starter.
2. Second base (Chris Getz)
Royals second basemen posted a .301 OBP and .636 OPS (26th in the majors) in 2011.
Likely solution: Rookie Johnny Giavotella played the final two months there and hit .247 with a .649 OPS. He'll head into spring training as the favorite to win the job. He hit .338/.390/.481 at Triple-A, so the batting potential is there: Bill James projects him to hit .295/.342/.419.
3. Center field (empty -- Cabrera traded)
The Royals were smart to deal Cabrera after his career season.
Likely solution: Lorenzo Cain, acquired from Milwaukee in the Zack Greinke trade, will finally get a chance to play after spending 2011 in Triple-A. Cain is old for a guy still considered a prospect -- he turns 26 in April -- so he should be a polished product by now. He showed some power for the first time in his career, hitting 16 home runs for Omaha while batting .312. He doesn't walk much, so won't be a star, but should come closing to matching Cabrera's 2011 production.
Minnesota Twins
1. The M & M boys
After 2011's train wreck -- the club's first 90-loss season since 2000 (and at 99 losses, the most the 1982 Twins lost 102) -- it seems pretty clear this team will be dead in the water again unless Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau get healthy and regain their All-Star status. But they also can't assume these guys are going to play 140-plus games.
Likely solution: Obviously, the Twins need a better backup plan for Mauer than giving .167-hitting Drew Butera 250 plate appearances. They already accomplished with the smart signing of Ryan Doumit to a one-year deal for $3 million. Doumit can catch or play right field, but his bat is good enough to warrant a regular place in the lineup even when he's not behind the plate. Of course, he's also been injury-prone throughout his career. Prospect Chris Parmalee, who impressed in a September call-up, gives the team a potentially decent backup option for Morneau as well.
2. Right field: Empty (Michael Cuddyer, free agent)
For all the attention Cuddyer is getting, let's remember that he's really just a complementary bat on a good team. Unfortunately, considering some of the other outfielders the Twins tried last season -- Rene Tosoni, Jason Repko, Trevor Plouffe -- you realize they had nobody in the upper levels of the system.
Likely solution: Doumit may factor into their plans here, but regardless, the Twins need another bat to play a corner or DH. Smith is a trade option and free agent Josh Willingham is another possibility.
3. Closer: Empty (Matt Capps and Joe Nathan, free agents)
Nathan signed with Texas while GM Terry Ryan recently told the St. Paul Pioneer Press that it's likely Capps could return.
Likely solution: Capps was terrible last year, allowing 10 home runs in 65.2 innings while striking out just 4.7 hitters per nine innings. Two years ago, he had a 5.80 ERA. I can't fathom why any team would want to make Capps its closer. Sadly, however, the rest of the Minnesota bullpen is nearly as uninspiring (as is the rotation, but I don't have room to get to them here), but Capps throws strikes and there's nothing the Twins love more than a pitcher who throws strikes (velocity are ability to miss bats don't seem to be a factor). There's no reason for this team to spend big money on one of the remaining free-agent closers, so it probably will be Capps or lefty Glen Perkins.
AL East: Three fixes for each team
November, 29, 2011
11/29/11
2:24
PM ET
By Christina Kahrl | ESPN.com
For all the talk of the balance of power tilting towards the AL East, baseball's power division hasn't won a pennant in two years, and has as many world titles collectively as the St. Louis Cardinals over the last six. With the eventual one-game play-in to determine each league's wild-card team, the benefits of being second-best in the division have been erased. Over the past 10 seasons, the East has provided eight wild card teams.
So the stakes just got higher in one of the most competitive divisions in the league, while the new playoff structure might eventually create lottery opportunities for the Orioles or Blue Jays to reach a division series. Sticking with the theme David Schoenfield introduced for this series Monday, what are the three top priorities for the beasts of the AL East?
New York Yankees
1. Rotation depth: Who's No. 2?
Now that CC Sabathia has opted to stick around, the questions are who gets lined up behind him in 2012? How soon until top prospects Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances get chances to join Ivan Nova behind him? They're still stuck with A.J. Burnett for two more years, and seeing so much of the downside risk of signing him might understandably keep GM Brian Cashman from chasing C.J. Wilson. Bringing back Freddy Garcia at $5 million for another season of place-holding made sense, especially since they don't seem to know what to expect from Phil Hughes.
Likely solution: Sticking with Hughes and Burnett would be defensible in most organizations, but the need for a second stopper beyond Sabathia to put the Yankees in better postseason shape will compel them to chase a high-end vet. Don't be surprised when they ink Roy Oswalt as the best balance of short-term need, high price tag and quality.
2. Designated hitter: Open (Jorge Posada, free agent).
The job already belongs to Jesus Montero. The expectation of the offensive boost they'll get from Montero will no doubt fuel speculation that the Yankees could shop Nick Swisher in his last season before free agency. The Yankees will also add some down-on-his-luck veteran slugger to a split contract and a spring training invite to try and make the roster, not unlike Eric Chavez last February.
3. Infield depth: (Eduardo Nunez and … )
Derek Jeter will be 38 years old, and he's coming off his worst year. Alex Rodriguez hasn't managed to stay healthy and play a full season since 2007. Anticipating that he'll miss another 30-40 games in 2012 would be practical. And Nunez can't play short and third base if the Yankees are confronted with continuing decline from the Captain at the same time that A-Rod breaks down. A lefty bat to spot either starter would be handy.
Likely solution: Obvious free-agent candidates like Jerry Hairston Jr., Nick Punto or Adam Kennedy would represent the most risk-averse solutions without providing much help at the plate. Signing Carlos Guillen would entail lots of risk, but he's played around the infield and if he was game for an incentive-laden deal, might get another shot at the postseason.
Tampa Bay Rays
1. First base: Open (Casey Kotchman, free agent)
Kotchman was less an actual incumbent and more like the temp you thank and then let loose. So the Rays are now in the position to explore their options and find something better. They won't get in on the Prince-Albert sweepstakes, but they might find Carlos Pena amenable now that he's found that the market isn't going to give him a huge long-term contract. But even that's fairly unlikely. Minor league professional hitter Russ Canzler shows up atop the depth charts for the time being after hitting .314/.401/.530 for Triple-A Durham; he could be part of a platoon if the Rays find a lefty-batting partner.
Likely solution: The Rays understand that their alternatives are fairly interchangeable, just as they were last year when they settled for Kotchman and Dan Johnson. There's always the opportunity to see if the A's would part with any of their collection of semi-interesting alternatives, because they'll have to pick from among Brandon Allen, Chris Carter and Daric Barton. A Barton/Canzler platoon would be typical of the organization's ability to make do with less.
2. Designated hitter: Open (Johnny Damon, free agent)
Damon has already expressed an interest in coming back, as well he might -- DHs who slug .418 aren't likely to be in a lot of demand, no matter how much they're seen as great clubhouse guys. Brandon Guyer's arrival in the outfield corner adds a good option to the Rays' lineup. They're not in dire need and will have the freedom to explore whatever opportunities crop up.
Likely solution: A lot like first base, there isn't a likely solution beyond the likelihood that the Rays might find a veteran willing to sign for a relatively-cheap contract in January -- like Damon did last year. It might even be Damon again. But it will be a matter of finding the man willing to take what the Rays will offer while providing a modicum of offense.
3. Catcher: Open (Kelly Shoppach, free agent; John Jaso, traded to Seattle)
Before you ask, no, signing Jose Molina for $1.5 million was not entirely the answer. But the question is whether a job-sharing arrangement between Molina and minor-league veteran Jose Lobaton will be. Lobaton is a switch-hitter with a career .259/.348/.410 line in the minors, and he's been strong-armed enough to throw people out at roughly a 30 percent clip.
Likely solution: Joe Maddon has been comfortable with cobbled-together platoons in the past, and working with this one while semi-prospect Robinson Chirinos recuperates from a broken wrist suffered in winter ball would be more of the same. But in light of recent rumors that the Rockies are shopping Chris Iannetta, it's hard not to think his blend of walks and power would make him exactly the kind of player at the right price for the Rays.
Boston Red Sox
ESPNBoston.com's Gordon Edes reports that the managerial search is down to Bobby Valentine and Gene Lamont, which is good news. Valentine would bring an articulate spokesman and a dugout aggression the Sox could probably use, while Lamont's merits as a tactician and his stint as a successful skipper on Chicago's South Side shouldn't be overlooked. We won't count this one, since it'll be resolved shortly.
1. Designated hitter: Empty (David Ortiz, free agent)
Papi's offense isn't the issue, the question is whether Father Time will ever catch up to the 36-year-old slugger. But after slugging .529 and .554 the last two years, he can afford to demand a multi-year deal, and the supply of people delivering that kind of power on the market is limited to four players. Ortiz will cost considerably less over a significantly shorter deal than Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder or Carlos Beltran.
Likely solution: Papi re-signs with the Red Sox for a multi-year deal that guarantees that his 400th career homer -- if he keeps aging gracefully, as he's at 349 now -- comes in a Boston uniform. Retaining his power will help let the Sox develop Josh Reddick and Ryan Kalish in right field.
2. Closer: Empty?
If you'd asked this question in July in anticipation of Jonathan Papelbon's offseason defection as a free agent, you'd have said the job was Daniel Bard's to lose. But he may have lost it after four losses and three blown saves in September. Bobby Jenks was supposed to be some sort of insurance, but he can't be counted on between back woes and the pulmonary embolism that was diagnosed in September. So the question is whether the new brain trust wants to believe in Bard's talent, or if it would rather have an alternative.
Likely solution: The Phillies' Ryan Madson has been talked up as an obvious target, and as long as he gets paid top dollar he may be more flexible over who gets saves after a long career in setting up other people. The alternatives would be short-term deals with somebody famous (Francisco Rodriguez) to generate saves, or getting a less well-known veteran like Frank Francisco of the Blue Jays, since he'd be an asset whether he pitches in front of Bard or behind.
3. Infield: Shop depth to exploit the market's shortage of talent on the left side.
Between Jimmy Rollins' price tag, Rafael Furcal's fragility, and Aramis Ramirez's bulk, you can understand how a lot of teams feeling short at short or third will want to expand their alternatives. Between Marco Scutaro, Jed Lowrie and Mike Aviles the Sox have three useful players who can play third base or shortstop, and Lowrie and Aviles are both under club control for the next three years.
Likely solution: Don't be surprised if either Lowrie or Aviles gets dealt for additional relief help. For example, the Cubs' Sean Marshall's only under control for one more year, so he could certainly be available, and the Cubs could use a guy with the bat for third like Lowrie.
Toronto Blue Jays
1. Closer: Open (Francisco and Jon Rauch, free agents)
This may not be the preeminent need, but the one that GM Alex Anthopoulos will most readily address -- probably no differently than he did last winter when he trawled for short-term help and hauled in Francisco, Rauch and Octavio Dotel. This winter, he's also be losing Shawn Camp after already dealing away Jason Frasor, Dotel and Marc Rzepczynski during the season, so there are plenty of job openings in Toronto beyond the guy who will be getting the most save opportunities.
Likely solution: Another grab-bag of rented veterans who can be comfortable in the knowledge they'll have a shot at a few saves and a deadline deal to a contender.
2. Second base (Kelly Johnson, free agent)
After dealing away Aaron Hill to acquire Johnson -- and expecting that Johnson would file for free agency, yielding draft picks via an arbitration offer -- there's the very real danger that Johnson could just accept arbitration. As fascinating as Johnson is in sabermetric circles, he's had only one good year in the last three. That season was boosted by a .976 OPS in the D-backs' hitter-happy home. Johnson will be turning 30, his strikeout rate reached 26.6 percent last year, and he's not a defensive asset in the field or around the bag. One man's treasure is another man's trash, and the Jays may be stuck learning that Johnson might elicit a lot less interest than they hoped. If he stays, he could reasonably expect more than $6 million via arbitration, which wouldn't be the end of the world.
Likely solution: Johnson doesn't take arbitration, to the regret of everyone involved besides the Jays. The Jays end up having to shop around, because the market's thin. Don't be surprised if another deal with the Cardinals brings Ryan Theriot to Toronto for his last year before free agency.
3. Rotation starter
As much excitement as Ricky Romero deserves en route to ensuring his long-term commitment to the Blue Jays, the rest of the rotation leaves a lot to be desired. Brandon Morrow was talented and exasperating, and Kyle Drabek and Brett Cecil both pitched badly enough to lose their jobs at different points of the season. Top prospects like Deck McGuire, Asher Wojciechowski, Drew Hutchison and Chad Jenkins aren't close to ready, and organizational survivors like Brad Mills, Dustin McGowan and Jesse Litsch are far from sure things to round out a front five.
Likely solution: Henderson Alvarez didn't enjoy many top-prospect touts on the way up, but six quality starts in 10 turns for Toronto should get him one of the slots behind Romero, Morrow and Cecil. It will be interesting to see if the Jays keep the last spot open for Drabek or one of the organizational pitchers, or if they spring for a one-year rental with a veteran innings-eater like Aaron Harang to buy the bullpen some breathing room.
Baltimore Orioles
1. Front office.
The player development system has too often proven to be an organizational stepchild. Yappy marketing and Buck Showalter in the dugout didn't change that and couldn't; new GM Dan Duquette is charged with trying. Between faith in his Latin American contacts and his past track record with the Expos and Red Sox, the hope is that Duquette isn't merely the latest front-office time-server -- say, Syd Thrift in a different suit.
Likely solution: While other teams might be heading to the Winter Meetings looking to land big-name free agents, Duquette's best investments this winter should be the ones he makes in adding front-office help, coaches, instructors and scouts. The new CBA may have hamstrung creativity if you reduce that to dollars, but good scouting and better instruction generates its own rewards.
2. Starting pitching: 60 quality starts, fewest in MLB.
This was expected to be, if not an area of strength, or at least a unit that provided hope in the form of young talent. But Jake Arrieta hurt his elbow, Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman took huge steps backward, and top pitching prospect Zach Britton put up a 5.76 ERA in 10 second-half starts. The bullpen had to absorb a ton of work from a rotation that struggled to deliver just 5.4 innings per start while allowing 5.9 runs per nine.
Likely solution: Stockpiling back-end rotation castoffs like Jo-Jo Reyes and Tommy Hunter will not be the solution; that's just hunting for the next Jeremy Guthrie and not finding him. If Duquette wants to make an immediate impact in a way that will show up in the 2012 standings, it might be to add a veteran starter who can be a positive example -- like Charlie Leibrandt did with the early-'90s Braves. While Mark Buehrle or Oswalt would be perfect as examples and as mentors, it's more likely the O's will have to settle for the likes of Joel Pineiro or perhaps a rehabbing Jason Marquis.
3. Infield: Who plays where?
Between concern over second baseman Brian Roberts' recovery from his concussion and questions over whether Mark Reynolds or Chris Davis can play third base, you might think the Orioles should be looking for help at second base and the hot corner. Maybe at first base too.
Likely solution: Take a look at the market, and you can conclude these are issues best left for spring training. Unless the Angelos clan empowers Duquette to blow the budget well past $90 million, the O's can't land a Pujols or Fielder at first base, and they shouldn't make the too-common Orioles mistake of overpaying for mediocre free agents. If Roberts can't come back, if there's one thing the system has, it's in-house alternatives at second (starting with prospect Ryan Adams), and the market for help at third base is thin enough to encourage them to be patient with Davis at the hot corner.
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.
BACK TO TOP
Page: 1
