SweetSpot: Troy Tulowitzki
First base: No Kemp, plenty Kershaw. It's too early in the season to call any series a "big" series, but considering the Diamondbacks entered Monday 8.5 games behind the Dodgers and Matt Kemp didn't play for the first time since Aug. 18, 2009 ... well, it's kind of an important two-game showdown for them. Monday's game was a battle of aces with Clayton Kershaw facing Ian Kennedy and featured some extracurricular fireworks. The last time Kershaw faced Arizona, last September, he was ejected for plunking Gerardo Parra, who had longingly admired a home run the previous night. On Kershaw's first at-bat, Kennedy threw behind him.
But Kershaw got the final word. He later introduced Kennedy's nose to the smell of some inside heat and pitched seven shutout innings in L.A.'s 3-1 victory. Arizona just can't produce many runs right now. Paul Goldschmidt, Ryan Roberts and Willie Bloomquist are still struggling at the plate and Justin Upton's OPS continues to hover under .700. He did get a first-inning single off Kershaw -- his first hit off Kershaw after going 0-for-18. If there's good news for the Diamondbacks, it's that they owned an identical 15-21 record last season after 36 games. They even dropped to 15-22, before turning their season around, winning 15 of their next 17 games.
Second base: Reds scare. So the St. Louis Cardinals have outscored their opponents by 63 runs, they have an MVP candidate in Carlos Beltran, six guys in Monday's lineup hitting over .300 (none of whom were Beltran, Matt Holliday or David Freese) and three starters with an ERA under 2.50. The Cincinnati Reds have outscored their opponents by six runs, have three starters with an ERA over 4.00, five guys in Monday's lineup hitting under .260 and only one hitter who has more than nine walks. And, somehow, the Reds are just 1.5 games behind the Cardinals.
Third base: Friedrich fantastic, Tulo not. Rockies rookie Christian Friedrich once again looked terrific in his second major league start, striking out 10 and allowing just a Gregor Blanco home run in seven innings. Friedrich, the one-time top prospect who struggled in Double-A the past two seasons, had pitched well in Triple-A this year and now has 17 strikeouts and just two walks over his first two starts. Friedrich's effort went for naught as the Giants scored two runs in the eighth off the Colorado bullpen, dropping the Rockies to 13-21. Troy Tulowitzki continues to struggle in May (he hasn't homered since April 27), was hit by Dexter Fowler's foul ball while standing in the dugout and then left the game after limping down the line on an infield single.
Tweet of the night. Speaking of that inside pitch to Kershaw ...
But Kershaw got the final word. He later introduced Kennedy's nose to the smell of some inside heat and pitched seven shutout innings in L.A.'s 3-1 victory. Arizona just can't produce many runs right now. Paul Goldschmidt, Ryan Roberts and Willie Bloomquist are still struggling at the plate and Justin Upton's OPS continues to hover under .700. He did get a first-inning single off Kershaw -- his first hit off Kershaw after going 0-for-18. If there's good news for the Diamondbacks, it's that they owned an identical 15-21 record last season after 36 games. They even dropped to 15-22, before turning their season around, winning 15 of their next 17 games.
Second base: Reds scare. So the St. Louis Cardinals have outscored their opponents by 63 runs, they have an MVP candidate in Carlos Beltran, six guys in Monday's lineup hitting over .300 (none of whom were Beltran, Matt Holliday or David Freese) and three starters with an ERA under 2.50. The Cincinnati Reds have outscored their opponents by six runs, have three starters with an ERA over 4.00, five guys in Monday's lineup hitting under .260 and only one hitter who has more than nine walks. And, somehow, the Reds are just 1.5 games behind the Cardinals.
Third base: Friedrich fantastic, Tulo not. Rockies rookie Christian Friedrich once again looked terrific in his second major league start, striking out 10 and allowing just a Gregor Blanco home run in seven innings. Friedrich, the one-time top prospect who struggled in Double-A the past two seasons, had pitched well in Triple-A this year and now has 17 strikeouts and just two walks over his first two starts. Friedrich's effort went for naught as the Giants scored two runs in the eighth off the Colorado bullpen, dropping the Rockies to 13-21. Troy Tulowitzki continues to struggle in May (he hasn't homered since April 27), was hit by Dexter Fowler's foul ball while standing in the dugout and then left the game after limping down the line on an infield single.
Tweet of the night. Speaking of that inside pitch to Kershaw ...
Not surprisingly both #Dbacks Montero and Kennedy said they were just trying to go inside on Kershaw bc he has a "long swing".
— Steve Gilbert (@SteveGilbertMLB) May 15, 2012
Clearing the bases: Upton, Young injured
April, 18, 2012
Apr 18
8:00
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
First base: Double trouble for D-backs. Justin Upton sat out Tuesday's game against the Pirates due to the thumb injury he suffered April 8. Manager Kirk Gibson said his star right fielder -- batting .212 without an RBI -- saw a hand specialist and would likely undergo an MRI. "The thumb's been bothering him," Gibson told the Arizona Republic. "He's pushed hard through it. We've taken a day to re-evaluate what's going on with his thumb." To make matters worse for Arizona, Chris Young crashed into the wall in left-center making a leaping grab and left the game with a shoulder bruise. He too will undergo an MRI. The D-backs received a lot of criticism for signing Jason Kubel in the offseason, but this is where having four outfielders is an asset, not a problem. If Young can't go, Gerardo Parra can handle center.
Second base: Gold Glovers struggling on defense. Two-time Gold Glove winner Troy Tulowitzki committed just six errors last season but he made his sixth already in 2012, letting an easy double-play go through his legs, an error that led to two unearned runs and nearly cost Jamie Moyer his "oldest pitcher to win a game" achievement. Meanwhile, two-time Gold Glover Evan Longoria booted two grounders and made a throwing error for a three-error night in Tampa's 7-3 loss to the Blue Jays (three of Jeff Niemann's five runs were unearned). While Longoria just had one of those nights, Tulo's situation appears more serious, a possible "fielding slump" that is worth keeping an eye on.
Third base: No A's for Angels. Mike Scioscia removed Dan Haren after just 85 pitches, with the Angels leading 2-1 with two runners on and two out in the seventh. Lefty Daric Barton was up for the A's so Scioscia brought in Scott Downs, who did retire Barton to escape the jam. Even though Downs' is the team's best setup guy -- a guy who has proven he can retire right-handed hitters as well as lefties -- Scioscia took him out after four pitches and brought in Kevin Jepsen, a guy considerably lower in the bullen pecking order. Two walks and two hits later it was 3-2 Oakland, and then Yoenis Cespedes made it 5-2 with a two-run single off David Carpenter. Why Jepsen? Or why remove Haren so soon if your bullpen has been taxed in recent days? LaTroy Hawkins had thrown 31 pitches on Monday so was probably unavailable. Downs had thrown 14 pitches, hardly reason to limit him to four pitches. Jason Isringhausen had thrown 21 pitches on Sunday -- but Carpenter had thrown 37. The obvious question: Why not use closer Jordan Walden ... you know, for more than three batters. He's thrown two innings all season -- one inning in a 7-1 win and one inning in a 7-3 loss. In other words, he hasn't thrown a meaningful inning all season. In the last week, the Angels' bullpen has lost two leads in the eighth inning and one in the seventh. But whatever you do, SAVE YOUR CLOSER FOR THE NINTH INNING.
Home plate: Tweet of the day.
Rockies pitcher tweeting members of the Los Angeles Clippers after Jamie Moyer's win:
Second base: Gold Glovers struggling on defense. Two-time Gold Glove winner Troy Tulowitzki committed just six errors last season but he made his sixth already in 2012, letting an easy double-play go through his legs, an error that led to two unearned runs and nearly cost Jamie Moyer his "oldest pitcher to win a game" achievement. Meanwhile, two-time Gold Glover Evan Longoria booted two grounders and made a throwing error for a three-error night in Tampa's 7-3 loss to the Blue Jays (three of Jeff Niemann's five runs were unearned). While Longoria just had one of those nights, Tulo's situation appears more serious, a possible "fielding slump" that is worth keeping an eye on.
Third base: No A's for Angels. Mike Scioscia removed Dan Haren after just 85 pitches, with the Angels leading 2-1 with two runners on and two out in the seventh. Lefty Daric Barton was up for the A's so Scioscia brought in Scott Downs, who did retire Barton to escape the jam. Even though Downs' is the team's best setup guy -- a guy who has proven he can retire right-handed hitters as well as lefties -- Scioscia took him out after four pitches and brought in Kevin Jepsen, a guy considerably lower in the bullen pecking order. Two walks and two hits later it was 3-2 Oakland, and then Yoenis Cespedes made it 5-2 with a two-run single off David Carpenter. Why Jepsen? Or why remove Haren so soon if your bullpen has been taxed in recent days? LaTroy Hawkins had thrown 31 pitches on Monday so was probably unavailable. Downs had thrown 14 pitches, hardly reason to limit him to four pitches. Jason Isringhausen had thrown 21 pitches on Sunday -- but Carpenter had thrown 37. The obvious question: Why not use closer Jordan Walden ... you know, for more than three batters. He's thrown two innings all season -- one inning in a 7-1 win and one inning in a 7-3 loss. In other words, he hasn't thrown a meaningful inning all season. In the last week, the Angels' bullpen has lost two leads in the eighth inning and one in the seventh. But whatever you do, SAVE YOUR CLOSER FOR THE NINTH INNING.
Home plate: Tweet of the day.
Rockies pitcher tweeting members of the Los Angeles Clippers after Jamie Moyer's win:
Shout out 2 boys from @laclippers.U witnessed history 2nite! @blakegriffin @bobbysimmons21 @mowilliams @RandyFoye Will u b able 2 dunk @ 49?
— Jeremy Guthrie (@JGuthrie46) April 18, 2012
Ubaldo Jimenez eases Indians' concerns
April, 7, 2012
Apr 7
9:30
PM ET
By Stephanie Liscio | Special to ESPN.com
After my father and I nearly froze to death from 16 innings of Opening Day “magic” at Thursday’s Indians game, he turned to me and asked, “What if it goes extra innings on Saturday as well?” I responded by saying, “Ubaldo Jimenez will probably give up seven or eight runs in the first couple of innings. Dan Wheeler will be sent in for mop-up duty, and he’ll give up a few more. The offense will be terrible, so it will assuredly end in nine innings.”
I’m glad to say that if I had to be wrong about one of those statements, it was the one about Jimenez. Nobody really knew what to expect from Jimenez today, but Indians fans seemed to fear the worst. He was all over the map in spring training, and was shaky after he plunked Troy Tulowitzki against Colorado last Sunday. With a five-game suspension looming (Jimenez announced that he will drop his appeal) and the ongoing drama with the Rockies, would he be able to put all of that behind him and help the Indians bounce back from their heartbreaking loss Thursday?
Jimenez looked sharp today, and despite the fact that he earned a no-decision in Cleveland's 7-4, 12-inning loss, he took a perfect game into the sixth inning, and a no-hitter into the seventh. From what I saw on the radar gun at the ballpark, he topped out at 93 mph and looked like he was throwing a lot of off-speed pitches. His command, a problem at times this spring, was sharp until the sixth inning. He was able to quiet the bat of Jose Bautista, which no Indians pitcher seemed able to do on Thursday (including Justin Masterson).
While I’m certainly not ready to declare last summer’s trade with Colorado a complete success yet, it has to make Indians fans feel a little bit better to see a strong opening performance from Jimenez. I expected to see more tension and excitement at today’s game as it reached the later innings. The closest I’ve ever been to witnessing a no-hitter was when Cliff Lee took one into the eighth inning against the Cardinals on June 14, 2009; on that night, you could just feel the electricity in the air at Progressive Field, as if something really special was taking place. Today, much of the crowd around me appeared to be disengaged, or Toronto fans. Nobody really seemed to fully grasp the performance they were seeing from Jimenez.
To be fair, most people with a rooting interest in the Indians were preoccupied with complaints about the Indians’ offense. The Tribe has now played 28 innings of baseball in just two games. In those 28 innings, they’ve scored eight runs, six of which have come via the home run. The Indians left just three runners on base on Saturday, two of which were left stranded in the 12th inning after Toronto had already gone ahead by four. While there were a number of missed opportunities on Thursday, they didn’t even have any opportunities to miss this afternoon. In their first two games they’ve had just 12 hits, and three of those came in the bottom of the 12th today. The “major” free agent signing this winter, Casey Kotchman, has started the season 0-for-12. He has yet to hit a ball out of the infield; a couple of his groundouts today didn’t even make it past the pitcher’s mound.
The “Bullpen Mafia” has shown some signs of weakness early in the season, with Chris Perez, Jairo Asencio, Vinnie Pestano, and Tony Sipp all responsible for surrendering runs in pivotal situations. With the offense as weak as it has looked these first two games, the Indians would probably still be playing Thursday’s game if the bullpen continued to hold the Toronto offense scoreless. Both Thursday and today, manager Manny Acta appeared slow to pull the trigger once Perez and Sipp got into trouble. Nobody was warming up, and nobody even tried to stall for time to get someone else up in the bullpen. When your team is struggling to score runs, a quick hook with a struggling bullpen pitcher may be the best form of action.
Even though the Indians have only played two games thus far, Masterson and Jimenez have been the bright spots in both. This offseason, fans were most worried about the starting pitching and the offense. Even though it’s far too soon to declare the starting pitching situation “fine,” I’ve seen enough from the offense to know that I’m concerned. Masterson went eight innings on Thursday, and Jimenez lasted seven today; you can’t ask for much more than that from your starting pitchers.
Now the offense needs to step up and prove that these two games were a fluke, and not the norm. Perhaps they just need to start a feud with Troy Tulowitzki and the Colorado Rockies. It seemed to work for Jimenez.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Jim Cowsert/US PresswireAlexei Ramirez took a tumble with a critical ninth-inning catch for the Sox.
Stephanie Liscio blogs about the Indians for the SweetSpot network at "It's Pronounced 'Lajaway'," and can be followed on Twitter at @stephanieliscio.
I’m glad to say that if I had to be wrong about one of those statements, it was the one about Jimenez. Nobody really knew what to expect from Jimenez today, but Indians fans seemed to fear the worst. He was all over the map in spring training, and was shaky after he plunked Troy Tulowitzki against Colorado last Sunday. With a five-game suspension looming (Jimenez announced that he will drop his appeal) and the ongoing drama with the Rockies, would he be able to put all of that behind him and help the Indians bounce back from their heartbreaking loss Thursday?
Jimenez looked sharp today, and despite the fact that he earned a no-decision in Cleveland's 7-4, 12-inning loss, he took a perfect game into the sixth inning, and a no-hitter into the seventh. From what I saw on the radar gun at the ballpark, he topped out at 93 mph and looked like he was throwing a lot of off-speed pitches. His command, a problem at times this spring, was sharp until the sixth inning. He was able to quiet the bat of Jose Bautista, which no Indians pitcher seemed able to do on Thursday (including Justin Masterson).
While I’m certainly not ready to declare last summer’s trade with Colorado a complete success yet, it has to make Indians fans feel a little bit better to see a strong opening performance from Jimenez. I expected to see more tension and excitement at today’s game as it reached the later innings. The closest I’ve ever been to witnessing a no-hitter was when Cliff Lee took one into the eighth inning against the Cardinals on June 14, 2009; on that night, you could just feel the electricity in the air at Progressive Field, as if something really special was taking place. Today, much of the crowd around me appeared to be disengaged, or Toronto fans. Nobody really seemed to fully grasp the performance they were seeing from Jimenez.
To be fair, most people with a rooting interest in the Indians were preoccupied with complaints about the Indians’ offense. The Tribe has now played 28 innings of baseball in just two games. In those 28 innings, they’ve scored eight runs, six of which have come via the home run. The Indians left just three runners on base on Saturday, two of which were left stranded in the 12th inning after Toronto had already gone ahead by four. While there were a number of missed opportunities on Thursday, they didn’t even have any opportunities to miss this afternoon. In their first two games they’ve had just 12 hits, and three of those came in the bottom of the 12th today. The “major” free agent signing this winter, Casey Kotchman, has started the season 0-for-12. He has yet to hit a ball out of the infield; a couple of his groundouts today didn’t even make it past the pitcher’s mound.
The “Bullpen Mafia” has shown some signs of weakness early in the season, with Chris Perez, Jairo Asencio, Vinnie Pestano, and Tony Sipp all responsible for surrendering runs in pivotal situations. With the offense as weak as it has looked these first two games, the Indians would probably still be playing Thursday’s game if the bullpen continued to hold the Toronto offense scoreless. Both Thursday and today, manager Manny Acta appeared slow to pull the trigger once Perez and Sipp got into trouble. Nobody was warming up, and nobody even tried to stall for time to get someone else up in the bullpen. When your team is struggling to score runs, a quick hook with a struggling bullpen pitcher may be the best form of action.
Even though the Indians have only played two games thus far, Masterson and Jimenez have been the bright spots in both. This offseason, fans were most worried about the starting pitching and the offense. Even though it’s far too soon to declare the starting pitching situation “fine,” I’ve seen enough from the offense to know that I’m concerned. Masterson went eight innings on Thursday, and Jimenez lasted seven today; you can’t ask for much more than that from your starting pitchers.
Now the offense needs to step up and prove that these two games were a fluke, and not the norm. Perhaps they just need to start a feud with Troy Tulowitzki and the Colorado Rockies. It seemed to work for Jimenez.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Jim Cowsert/US PresswireAlexei Ramirez took a tumble with a critical ninth-inning catch for the Sox.
Ah, April is here! Mark Simon and I tried to harness our joy for the season’s first official month in Monday’s Baseball Today podcast, discussing Power Rankings, ridiculous questions (and ridiculous on-field maneuvers) as well!
1. Let’s just say we’ve got different teams in our respective top 10s, and in a different order. The differences (Rangers versus Angels, where the Red Sox, Tigers and Phillies rank) are interesting.
2. Ubaldo Jimenez did a bad thing Sunday, but will it actually hurt the Indians? And does anyone look good from the beaning incident?
3. Congrats to Jamie Moyer for making the Rockies! Mark shares tweets about other professorial baseball players.
4. In search of some off-the-wall baseball season predictions, Mark involves Tim Tebow, Martin Brodeur and the MLS.
5. It wouldn’t be a Simon show without some ridiculous questions of the day and a little singing, and we’ve got it today!
So download and listen to Monday’s excellent Baseball Today podcast. It’ll make you laugh and cry.
1. Let’s just say we’ve got different teams in our respective top 10s, and in a different order. The differences (Rangers versus Angels, where the Red Sox, Tigers and Phillies rank) are interesting.
2. Ubaldo Jimenez did a bad thing Sunday, but will it actually hurt the Indians? And does anyone look good from the beaning incident?
3. Congrats to Jamie Moyer for making the Rockies! Mark shares tweets about other professorial baseball players.
4. In search of some off-the-wall baseball season predictions, Mark involves Tim Tebow, Martin Brodeur and the MLS.
5. It wouldn’t be a Simon show without some ridiculous questions of the day and a little singing, and we’ve got it today!
So download and listen to Monday’s excellent Baseball Today podcast. It’ll make you laugh and cry.
John Sommers II/Getty ImagesJoey Votto was the 2010 NL MVP and finished sixth in the voting in 2011.Points on a 14-9-8-7-6 basis.
Joey Votto is your best bet for NL MVP
March, 21, 2012
Mar 21
12:38
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Since the wild-card era began in 1995, there have been 34 MVPs -- 29 of them played on playoff teams, the exceptions being Albert Pujols in 2008, Ryan Howard in 2006, Barry Bonds in 2004 and 2001, Alex Rodriguez in 2003 and Larry Walker in 1997. Not including Justin Verlander, 31 of the 33 MVPs hit .300, the exceptions being Jimmy Rollins in 2007 (.296) and Rodriguez in 2003 (.298).
So that basically leaves two criteria for establishing MVP candidacy:
1. Play for a playoff team.
2. Hit .300.
Why didn't Matt Kemp win the NL MVP Award in 2011? The Dodgers didn't make the playoffs. Why didn't Curtis Granderson win the AL MVP Award? He didn't hit .300.
Those who contribute to ESPN's baseball coverage were just asked to make our 2012 predictions, including award winners. My first thought when it came to picking the NL MVP: Giancarlo Stanton. After hitting 34 home runs as a 21-year-old, he could explode. With Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez in front of him and a new potentially more hitter-friendly park, 40 to 45 home runs with 120-plus RBIs isn't out of the question.
Then I realized: Stanton probably isn't going to hit .300, not after hitting .262 a season ago. With 166 strikeouts, he would likely have to cut way down on the whiffs to come closer to .300. It could happen, but it isn't likely to happen in 2012. Plus, the Marlins aren't a lock for the postseason.
So who does that leave? Let's get back to our original theory.
Here's the list of NL position players who hit .300 each of the past two seasons: Joey Votto, Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Starlin Castro. That's it. Matt Holliday and Carlos Gonzalez hit over .300 in 2010, but were at .296 and .295, respectively, in 2011.
Now, that's not the entire list of MVP candidates, of course. You have Kemp and Justin Upton, both popular picks. Upton has the advantage on playing for a team more likely to make the playoffs. And while Upton hasn't hit .300 either of the past two seasons, he did hit .300 in 2009. Tulowitzki and Gonzalez are strong choices, but I'm not high on the Rockies' playoff chances. Ramirez was once an MVP candidate. Ryan Zimmerman hit .307 in 2010 and could be on a playoff contender.
But I think we clearly have three top choices: Votto, Braun and Upton. I'm not saying those are the three best players in the National League. I'm saying those are the three guys most likely to win the MVP Award. Votto and Braun are better candidates to hit .300, so that leaves Upton No. 3 on my list. So we have the last two NL MVP winners. Braun has the advantage that -- minus Prince Fielder -- if the Brewers do make the playoffs he'll get credit for "carrying the team" and "overcoming adversity." On the other hand, Votto will have to carry a lineup with two rookies and not a lot of support outside of Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips.
Most people seem to believe the Reds have a better chance of making the playoffs. If that's the case, the edge goes to Votto. So my preseason NL MVP ballot would go like this:
1. Joey Votto
2. Ryan Braun
3. Justin Upton
4. Matt Kemp
5. Troy Tulowitzki
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.
Podcast: Cabrera, Soria, franchise players
March, 20, 2012
Mar 20
3:19
PM ET
By
Eric Karabell | ESPN.com
A good time was had by all on Tuesday’s Baseball Today podcast, certainly more fun than what Detroit Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera experienced Monday. Keith Law and I talked Cabrera and much more.
1. Should the Tigers have expected Cabrera to get injured playing third base? Our opinions differ slightly, but certainly Detroit dodged a bullet.
2. However, the Royals are likely to lose closer Joakim Soria for a while. The Royals have pitchers that seem capable of closing games, but which one?
3. In yet another long-term contract that seems to benefit both team and player, Derek Holland and the Rangers committed to one another. Is Holland on the verge of stardom?
4. We take your emails, as among the topics are top players to start a franchise with, White Sox catchers, Braves shortstops and more!
5. Is Triple-A baseball what is used to be, or do more prospects skip that level on the way to the big leagues? KLaw offers thoughts.
So download and listen to Tuesday’s Baseball Today podcast, and send emails to baseballtoday@espnradio.com for Wednesday’s show!
1. Should the Tigers have expected Cabrera to get injured playing third base? Our opinions differ slightly, but certainly Detroit dodged a bullet.
2. However, the Royals are likely to lose closer Joakim Soria for a while. The Royals have pitchers that seem capable of closing games, but which one?
3. In yet another long-term contract that seems to benefit both team and player, Derek Holland and the Rangers committed to one another. Is Holland on the verge of stardom?
4. We take your emails, as among the topics are top players to start a franchise with, White Sox catchers, Braves shortstops and more!
5. Is Triple-A baseball what is used to be, or do more prospects skip that level on the way to the big leagues? KLaw offers thoughts.
So download and listen to Tuesday’s Baseball Today podcast, and send emails to baseballtoday@espnradio.com for Wednesday’s show!
Who are most important players of 2012?
March, 14, 2012
Mar 14
10:15
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
As we learned in 2011, baseball teams can survive the loss of even a superstar player. When Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright, who had finished second and third in the Cy Young voting the previous two seasons, went down in spring training with season-ending Tommy John surgery, many wrote off the Cardinals. "Wainwright injury deals crippling blow to Cardinals' chances," blared the headline of one major online publication.
We all know what happened.
That said, some players would seem to be more vital than others. I asked the question, "Who is the most important player in 2012?" on Twitter on Tuesday and received a wide range of answers. I'll list my top five followed by some reader responses. My one rule: I think the team involved has to be a legit contender. Joe Mauer and Felix Hernandez are obviously important to their teams, but the Twins and Mariners are unlikely contenders even if those guys deliver monster seasons.
1. Josh Johnson, Miami Marlins
The Marlins are probably borderline contenders even if everything breaks well -- I projected them to win 86 games -- making it imperative Johnson stays healthy after making just nine starts in 2011. The 2010 NL ERA leader, Johnson's health is even more vital since the Marlins would appear to lack rotation depth past their top five.
2. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
The Reds lineup will feature two rookies, inconsistent Drew Stubbs, injury-prone Scott Rolen and mediocre production at best from left field, making it imperative the 2010 NL MVP stay on the field. He did that last year, missing just one game.
3. Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox could survive the loss of one of their big hitters, but if Beckett struggles like he did in 2010 (21 starts, 5.78 ERA), the rotation will likely be exposed.
4. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies
Considering his position and skill-set, perhaps the most irreplaceable player in baseball today.
5. Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies
As the Phillies continue to get older and score fewer runs, the pressure on the Big Three increases. You don't replace the best pitcher in the game.
From the readers:
Jordan Walden. The angels have the rotation, but will walden be able to close games, because no one behind him looks promising -- @matte1727
Josh Beckett decides whether Boston is title contender or third place in East. --@TheFanManifesto
Jason Heyward. --@jasonwright
Kendrys Morales! If he comes back & b the hitter he was be4 the ankle injury then #Angels offense will b balance & powerful. --@LAngelsteelers
Ryan Braun! He will be mentally and emotionally tested in every ballpark that he plays in --@jcbritt13
I gotta say Verlander ( and I hate Detroit) that team is in big trouble without him --@Poptart_Larson
'most important' an interesting concept. Wright perhaps. Other teams may cope without their superstar(s), but The Mets... --@samjturner
Michael Pineda. A whole lot of organizational strategy, let alone a post season berth, hinges on his success --@MagicRatSF
Has to be Josh Johnson...so many expectations, but without a big JJ year, team could finish 4th --@m_techner
thinking Fielder...epic fail for Tigers if they don't make playoffs --@ChadMacNeil
@2Charms
@dschoenfield gosh, so many. Darvish needs to work for TEX, Pujols for LAA, Lawrie & Bautista for TOR, Fielder for DET, Adrian for BOS, etc
Evan Longoria plays like a top 10 fantasy player and I can see the Rays winning the division. --@KCs_Corner
daniel bard. red sox need him to be a decent 4th starter/3rd if bucholtz cant go all year. --@Conley76
Troy Tulowitzki. Five tool player at the most premium of positions. --@FSportsSchiel
Johan Santana. With him back to form, Mets could be alright. If not, they will probably be a joke. --@Doug_Gausepohl
Wainwright's return to form (or not) will go long way in deciding tight NLC --@rausdenmoore
Buster posey --@nimyaj
We all know what happened.
That said, some players would seem to be more vital than others. I asked the question, "Who is the most important player in 2012?" on Twitter on Tuesday and received a wide range of answers. I'll list my top five followed by some reader responses. My one rule: I think the team involved has to be a legit contender. Joe Mauer and Felix Hernandez are obviously important to their teams, but the Twins and Mariners are unlikely contenders even if those guys deliver monster seasons.
1. Josh Johnson, Miami Marlins
The Marlins are probably borderline contenders even if everything breaks well -- I projected them to win 86 games -- making it imperative Johnson stays healthy after making just nine starts in 2011. The 2010 NL ERA leader, Johnson's health is even more vital since the Marlins would appear to lack rotation depth past their top five.
2. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
The Reds lineup will feature two rookies, inconsistent Drew Stubbs, injury-prone Scott Rolen and mediocre production at best from left field, making it imperative the 2010 NL MVP stay on the field. He did that last year, missing just one game.
3. Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox could survive the loss of one of their big hitters, but if Beckett struggles like he did in 2010 (21 starts, 5.78 ERA), the rotation will likely be exposed.
4. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies
Considering his position and skill-set, perhaps the most irreplaceable player in baseball today.
5. Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies
As the Phillies continue to get older and score fewer runs, the pressure on the Big Three increases. You don't replace the best pitcher in the game.
From the readers:
Jordan Walden. The angels have the rotation, but will walden be able to close games, because no one behind him looks promising -- @matte1727
Josh Beckett decides whether Boston is title contender or third place in East. --@TheFanManifesto
Jason Heyward. --@jasonwright
Kendrys Morales! If he comes back & b the hitter he was be4 the ankle injury then #Angels offense will b balance & powerful. --@LAngelsteelers
Ryan Braun! He will be mentally and emotionally tested in every ballpark that he plays in --@jcbritt13
I gotta say Verlander ( and I hate Detroit) that team is in big trouble without him --@Poptart_Larson
'most important' an interesting concept. Wright perhaps. Other teams may cope without their superstar(s), but The Mets... --@samjturner
Michael Pineda. A whole lot of organizational strategy, let alone a post season berth, hinges on his success --@MagicRatSF
Has to be Josh Johnson...so many expectations, but without a big JJ year, team could finish 4th --@m_techner
thinking Fielder...epic fail for Tigers if they don't make playoffs --@ChadMacNeil
@2Charms
@dschoenfield gosh, so many. Darvish needs to work for TEX, Pujols for LAA, Lawrie & Bautista for TOR, Fielder for DET, Adrian for BOS, etc
Evan Longoria plays like a top 10 fantasy player and I can see the Rays winning the division. --@KCs_Corner
daniel bard. red sox need him to be a decent 4th starter/3rd if bucholtz cant go all year. --@Conley76
Troy Tulowitzki. Five tool player at the most premium of positions. --@FSportsSchiel
Johan Santana. With him back to form, Mets could be alright. If not, they will probably be a joke. --@Doug_Gausepohl
Wainwright's return to form (or not) will go long way in deciding tight NLC --@rausdenmoore
Buster posey --@nimyaj
First the SweetSpot network took on the AL teams. Now they look at the NL. Which players are bloggers most excited to watch this season, and why?
Arizona Diamondbacks: Justin Upton
Upton was finally healthy for an entire season in 2011, and met all the lofty expectations placed on him in the second year of a six-year, $51.25 million contract signed when he was 22. He set career highs in homers (31), RBI (88) and stolen bases (21, caught nine times), while compiling a .289/.369/.529 line. Through their age-23 season, there have been only four others to match Upton’s 91 homers, 62 stolen bases and 119 OPS+: Alex Rodriguez, Jose Canseco, Ken Griffey Jr. and Orlando Cepeda. Pretty elite company, and Upton still has time to mature as a player and team leader. I’m looking forward to watching this multifaceted young man do his thing again in 2012. -- Diane Firstman, Value Over Replacement Grit
Atlanta Braves: Jason Heyward
A healthy Heyward has to be the player Braves fans are most excited to see this season. Through injuries, bad habits developed while playing injured and benchings, just about everything that could have gone wrong for such a talent did go wrong last year. Despite all of that, Heyward never hung his head or complained and actually managed to produce slightly above-league-average value in right field. Heyward has reportedly straightened his swing out this offseason and has really worked hard to get his game back on track. If Heyward can get a little more elevation on his swing, while maintaining the other aspects of his rookie performance, Braves fans could once again witness a once-in-a-generation talent leading the team to a successful season. -- Franklin Rabon, Capitol Avenue Club
Chicago Cubs: Travis Wood
In 2010, Wood made his big league debut for the Reds in an outing against the Cubs. He was brought in this offseason as part of the deal that sent Sean Marshall packing. For some, that was a disappointment considering Wood’s ERA last year was 4.84, but if we look beyond that we see that Wood posted a FIP ERA of 4.06, and Bill James projects him for an ERA of 3.75 in 2012. Also factor in that Great American Ballpark is a tough place to pitch; Wood had a 5.30 in the Gap vs. 3.58 on the road. Wrigley is not the hitters’ park we’ve all been told it is, primarily due to the wind blowing in often early in the year. The move from Cincinnati should do a lot toward boosting Wood’s production and confidence. -- Joe Aiello, View From the Bleachers
Cincinnati Reds: Mat Latos
Anticipation is building steadily for Latos' debut in a Cincinnati uniform. At 24 years of age and with a couple of excellent seasons already under his belt, the sky is the limit for him. For Reds fans, there is the hope that the club will have a legitimate ace at the top of the rotation for the first time in a couple of decades. Yes, there is reason for legitimate excitement in the Queen City. -- Chad Dotson, Redleg Nation
Colorado Rockies: Troy Tulowitzki
It’s a debate in my mind between Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. Both have tremendous gloves, bats and arms. Tulo trained this offseason with Jason Giambi in Las Vegas, and one could extrapolate some motivation from Dan O'Dowd's offseason acquisitions and trades. (O'Dowd believes the team needs leaders and better clubhouse guys, so what does that say about Tulo who plays the most important position on the field, is signed through 2020 and the face of the franchise?). What will Tulo do this year? I think 30 homers, Gold Glove-level defense and solidifying his place as the best player in baseball is a sure bet. Are the playoffs a sure bet for the Rockies? MVP for Tulo? I can't wait to see! -- Travis Lay, Blake Street Bulletin
Houston Astros: Jordan Lyles
With all of the changes, everyone seems to have forgotten that Lyles was recently the Astros’ top prospect. How quickly a young player that showed real promise last year has become overlooked in Houston. He's only 21 years old and had a number of very promising starts last year, posting a fair 4.41 ERA through July before running out of gas and getting shelled in August and September. He clearly needs to continue to build his stamina and strengthen himself to last the entire season. I'm interested to see how he continues to progress and if we can see him grow into the kind of player that can withstand the rigors of an entire major league season. I don't know how the Astros faithful have forgotten about Lyles so fast, but I think they'll be quickly and pleasantly reminded why he was considered a top prospect. -- Austin Swafford, Austin’s Astros 290 Blog
Los Angeles Dodgers: Kemp and Kershaw
Heaven knows it's hard not to be excited about the return of Juan Uribe or the potential of having Juan Rivera for a full season. But even so, there's a small, small part of me that is intrigued by these fellas named Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw. They made a bit of an impression last year, and I can't say I'm not going to be, well ... OK, hanging on their every swing and pitch. But to avoid being too reliant on last year's stars, the new Dodger Roadrunner, Dee Gordon, will also be an exciting player to watch. -- Jon Weisman, Dodger Thoughts
Miami Marlins: Logan Morrison
The player I'm truly most excited to see don a Marlins uniform this season is Logan Morrison. Following a splendid sophomore season in 2011, Morrison enters the new season as one of the game's top outfielders in the National League. With a solid approach and some power, a full season from Morrison could result in at least five additional wins for the Fish -- assuming Morrison can remain healthy. -- David Gershman, Marlins Daily
Milwaukee Brewers: Zack Greinke
Last season, the Brewers didn't even get to see their prized acquisition participate in spring training, as Greinke broke a rib playing pickup basketball and missed all of spring and the first month of the season. This season, no basketball for the former Cy Young award winner. He'll be there through spring training and Brewer fans hope to avoid the slow start he suffered through last season. Greinke posted just a 5.63 ERA despite an 80:12 K:BB ratio in May and June last season (mostly thanks to eight home runs) before calming down in the second half. Greinke finished strong, posting a 2.80 ERA thanks to a .233/.293/.373 line allowed in July, August and September. -- Jack Moore, Disciples of Uecker
New York Mets: David Wright
After a winter of discontent for Mets fans, it’s hard to be excited about anyone in particular. The team is in desperate financial straits, is slashing payroll at record rates, and appears destined to finish in last place. Wright, the one player for whom I reserve excitement, may not even be on the team after July 31. Still, I’m highly anticipating his 2012 performance, because after two disappointing seasons I’m convinced that Wright has too much pride to have a third. For the first time in his career, the Mets are “his” team -- he’s the de facto leader, the man who sets the example for everyone else. Chances are, Wright is determined to have a career year, and will pound opposing pitching with a savage vengeance -- all in the name of leading the Mets to a less-than-90-loss season. -- Joe Janish, Mets Today
Philadelphia Phillies: Antonio Bastardo
It was easy to be impressed by the sustained excellence of Atlanta's Jonny Venters last season, but Bastardo was quietly in the same neighborhood. Bastardo had a monster 2011 in which he struck out nearly 11 batters per nine innings and held opponents to a .524 OPS. If he can even approach his 2011 performance, Bastardo, along with Jonathan Papelbon and the Phillies' army of young guys who throw hard (Mike Stutes, Justin De Fratus, David Herndon and so on), gives the Phillies' bullpen the potential to be one of the best in the National League. -- Michael Baumann, Crashburn Alley
Pittsburgh Pirates: Pedro Alvarez
While Andrew McCutchen remains eminently exciting, we have a firm grasp on his star-level capabilities. I’m more excited to see whether Alvarez can rebound from his terrible sophomore season and get back to where his debut left off. The Pirates have a chance at a bright future, but all of their elite prospects are several years away. If there is any hope to be a competitive team in 2012, Alvarez has to give McCutchen and Neil Walker some help offensively. He has barely played a full season of games (169), and there is still time for him to meet the expectations that come as a No. 2 overall pick. Hey, Alex Gordon finally did. -- Paul Sporer, Pitt Plank
St. Louis Cardinals: Adam Wainwright
Despite losing everyone's perennial favorite player to watch to free agency, the defending champs have several captivating players in 2012. Partly because fans haven't seen him in a year and partly because he throws one of the most entertaining curveballs in the game, Wainwright will be a sight for sore eyes as he comes back from Tommy John surgery. But the player with whom Wainwright will forever be linked in fans' memories, Carlos Beltran, also figures to be a pivotal and exciting addition to the post-Pujols roster. -- Matt Philip, Fungoes
San Diego Padres: Carlos Quentin
The acquisition of Quentin brings energy, excitement and more total bases (210 in 2011 with the White Sox) and home runs (24) than any Padres player had last year. The Padres now employ two hitting coaches -- a model just a few MLB teams use -- as Phil Plantier and Alonzo Powell help with the workload hitting instruction requires. Quentin plays hard and he will help change the dynamics in the clubhouse. With the Padres' deep farm system and strong pitching, Quentin just might be the player to add the much needed spark of power in the middle of the order. -- Anna McDonald
San Francisco Giants: Buster Posey
I think I can speak for Giants fans everywhere when I say the player that I'm most excited to see play this season is Posey, and it's not even close. His injury in 2011 was a black mark on a year that we'd all like to forget. Beyond the numbers, Posey has quickly become the face of the Giants. He's young, energetic, talented and -- for us fans -- we hope healthy. Regardless of what happens, I'll be happy to see him back on the field in 2012. -- Chris Quick, Bay City Ball
Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg
How could it be anyone but Strasburg? When healthy, the most hyped pitching prospect in over a decade has delivered some fabulous pitching performances, and yet it feels like he is just scratching the surface of what he can do. He's as equally likely to blow guys away for a double-digit K performance as he is to shut a team down and let just two guys reach first over eight innings. He looked so good at the end of last year that the feeling is the only thing that can stop him in 2012 are the limits imposed by his own team to protect his recovering arm. -- Harper Gordek, Nationals Baseball
If Rockies rebound, talent will be the reason
February, 10, 2012
Feb 10
1:00
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Getty Images/US PresswireAbove chemistry, Colorado needs big years from guys like Marco Scutaro, left, and Michael Cuddyer.Wait, I take that back: He's spent the offseason remaking the Rockies' clubhouse culture.
"Changing the culture motivated the changes," O'Dowd told Troy Renck of the Denver Post. "And one change led to another. There was a vision of what we wanted, but all the dots kind of connected on their own."
"We stunk and it was a bad clubhouse," O'Dowd told Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci. "Last year guys went their own way and didn't hold each other accountable. We pride ourselves on an 'all-for-one' mentality. And last year we didn't have that. It bugged everybody -- not just me."
"Quite honestly, I just feel like we needed to address our culture more than anything," O'Dowd told a Denver radio station in January. "We certainly need to address our talent, but I think talent becomes secondary if your culture is not where it needs to be. I think we had too many players, not naming anybody, that were more worried about collecting service time than actually worried about winning and playing the game the right way."
So O'Dowd signed Michael Cuddyer and Casey Blake. He traded for Marco Scutaro, saying, "He fits in well. He's another guy with a slow heartbeat that is a winning player." He just traded for Jeremy Guthrie and invited Jamie Moyer to spring training. All veterans. All regarded as good clubhouse guys.
Now, I don't know what happened in the Rockies' clubhouse last season. But from the outside, it appears to me that O'Dowd is making excuses for the team's 73-89 record. He's not calling out himself for constructing a bad team, or manager Jim Tracy for not making sure the team played "the game the right way" or even veterans like Todd Helton or Troy Tulowitzki for failing, you know, to build a winning clubhouse atmosphere.
Look at some of his moves:
- He signed Ty Wigginton, a player who had put up minus-1.7 WAR over the previous two seasons. The Rockies gave him 446 plate appearances and he predictably was terrible, putting up minus-1.1 WAR.
- The team broke camp with Jose Lopez, coming off a season with a .270 OBP, as its starting second baseman. Predictably, he was terrible and the Rockies released him in June with a .233 OBP.
- The team began the season with Esmil Rogers in the rotation. Rogers has a nice arm, but no secondary pitches, no idea of how to pitch, had pitched poorly with the Rockies in 2010, and didn't have much of a track record of success in the minors. Predictably, he was terrible, posting a 7.05 ERA.
- He'd traded Clint Barmes in the offseason for strong-armed Felipe Paulino, but the Rockies gave up on Paulino after 14 innings and sold him to the Royals, where he pitched well. Paulino would certainly have been a better option than some of the other guys the Rockies tried in the rotation.
- The team continued to count on the aging Helton to be a key part of the lineup. Helton hit .302 and gets on base; but while he's still a decent player, he doesn't provide the power you prefer from a first baseman, and he's going to miss time (38 games in 2011, 44 in 2010).
Yes, the Rockies suffered some injuries to the rotation -- Jorge De La Rosa went down after 10 starts and Juan Nicasio after 13 starts, and then O'Dowd traded Ubaldo Jimenez. But no team makes it through the year with five starters. In the end, the Rockies just weren't a good team. O'Dowd's desire to seemingly blame the season on "clubhouse culture" is as embarrassing as Red Sox management blaming fried chicken for their collapse.
Of course, this is nothing new for the Rockies. Back in 2006, USA Today ran a story headlined "Baseball's Rockies seek revival on two levels." Bob Nightengale's story focused on how the Rockies had become an "organization guided by Christianity," as Nightengale wrote.
"We started to go after character six or seven years ago, but we didn't follow that like we should have," chairman and CEO Charlie Monfort says in the piece (he's now listed as owner/general partner). "I don't want to offend anyone, but I think character-wise we're stronger than anyone in baseball. Christians, and what they've endured, are some of the strongest people in baseball. I believe God sends signs, and we're seeing those."
Going after "character" guys didn't really work; the Rockies had losing seasons every year from 2001 through 2006. The club did finally break through in 2007, winning 90 games and reaching the World Series. Not coincidentally, Tulowitzki and Jimenez were rookies that year. Matt Holliday had his best season and finished second in the MVP vote. Brad Hawpe had his best season. Helton played in 154 games.
I'm reminded of a couple of quotes. Jim Leyland, while managing Barry Bonds in Pittsburgh, said something along the lines of, "Leadership? Leadership is 30 home runs, 30 steals and a .300 batting average." Billy Martin once said there are mules and there are racehorses, and no matter how much you kick the mule in the ass he's not going to become a racehorse.
Maybe O'Dowd's moves will work out. I have my doubts -- Helton and Blake will be 38 and Scutaro 36. In 2011, only three position players older than 35 had a Baseball-Reference WAR of 2.0 or higher -- Johnny Damon, Chipper Jones and Helton. Cuddyer is 33 and coming off one of his best seasons, but his cumulative 2009-2010 WAR was just 2.2.
If the moves do work, I suspect it won't be because of some magic clubhouse elixir. It will be because Helton stays healthy, Cuddyer has a big year, Scutaro gives the team a good second baseman, and three guys in the rotation step up and pitch 200 innings. In the end, it's about the talent.
Best player in baseball: How about Tulo?
February, 7, 2012
Feb 7
12:36
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Chris Humphreys/US PresswireHey, we'd all be smiling like that if we had Troy Tulowitzki's baseball abilities.With that in mind, I asked Twitter followers to name their best player in baseball. Here are the results of the first 100 responses:
Troy Tulowitzki: 19 votes
Albert Pujols: 18 votes
Jose Bautista: 13 votes
Matt Kemp: 11.5 votes
Miguel Cabrera: 9 votes
Evan Longoria: 7 votes
Joey Votto: 7 votes
Justin Verlander: 6 votes
Roy Halladay: 4 votes
Robinson Cano: 3 votes
Ryan Braun: 1 vote
Jacoby Ellsbury: 1 vote
Justin Upton: 0.5 vote
The fact that 13 different players received votes and none received even 20 percent shows the lack of consensus on the topic. Rockies shortstop Tulowitzki edged out Pujols in the voting, although that may be have been influenced by the fact that I posted the question around 9 p.m. ET.
Anyway, here were some responses:
still Pujols, but closest it's been in a while. --@sahadevsharma
Verlander. Most dominant pitcher in pitcher heavy time. --@zcrizer
Best is Troy Tulowitzki. Key infield position at SS. Leader. Silver Slugger. Gold Glove. --@Stars5Steve
Tulo. Premier player at a premium position. --@cmiller0
Considering Albert is only a year removed from a 7.5 WAR and .420 wOBA, I'll side with him. Too close to call though. --@LWM_sucks
jose bautista easily --@TdotsFinest11
Miguel Cabrera without a doubt, so consistent you can't deny it, gives you the whole package. --@GadyBlitz
Ryan Braun. Even without the roids. --@oneandonlyburke
Over/under: Troy Tulowitzki's home runs
February, 6, 2012
Feb 6
1:16
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Troy Tulowitzki will once again be a popular preseason MVP selection, especially if you believe in the Rockies' chances in the wide-open NL West.
He's finished in the top-10 of the MVP voting each of the past three seasons and has won two consecutive Gold Gloves as well. The only question: Will he stay healthy?
He missed 19 games in 2011 and 40 games in 2010. When he's played, he's been productive, hitting for power and average. Over the past three seasons he's averaged 139 games and 30 home runs.
After hitting 30 home runs in 143 games last season, that seems like a pretty good barometer for his 2012 output. I'll set his over/under for home runs at 30.5.
What do you think? Vote in the poll (and you can click on the over/under tag at the bottom of the file to check out our other over/under polls).
He's finished in the top-10 of the MVP voting each of the past three seasons and has won two consecutive Gold Gloves as well. The only question: Will he stay healthy?
He missed 19 games in 2011 and 40 games in 2010. When he's played, he's been productive, hitting for power and average. Over the past three seasons he's averaged 139 games and 30 home runs.
After hitting 30 home runs in 143 games last season, that seems like a pretty good barometer for his 2012 output. I'll set his over/under for home runs at 30.5.
What do you think? Vote in the poll (and you can click on the over/under tag at the bottom of the file to check out our other over/under polls).
Position Production: Up the Middle
January, 29, 2012
Jan 29
9:00
AM ET
By Christina Kahrl | ESPN.com
As we discussed in the first installment yesterday, performance at different positions invariably moves around a bit from year to year, but what about at the skill positions up the middle?
It seems as if not a winter goes by when you won’t wind up reading stories about the shortage of good catching (followed by the arrival of Koyie Hill on your team’s roster), or how landing people who can contribute at shortstop in the major leagues is difficult.
It’s sort of nonsense, because when you get right down to it, the standards for offense at catcher are stronger now than they were when we had just 26 or 28 teams. The amount of offense you can expect from your shortstops relative to league offense is higher now than it was in the glory days of the shortstop trinity of the ’90s, when Nomar Garciaparra, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez seemed to redefine offense from a position where Barry Larkin and Cal Ripken had been the standard.
But at the same time, we’re seeing players like Robinson Cano and Dustin Pedroia rank among the best players in baseball at second base, while Jacoby Ellsbury and Matt Kemp might have deserved their leagues’ respective MVP awards for their seasons in center.
First, let’s start with the performance levels from second base, shortstop, catcher and center field, from 1987-2011, using Clay Davenport’s Equivalent Average as our rough year-to-year guide. As noted before, .260 is the single-season baseline for the major leagues.
Christina Kahrl/ESPN.comUp the middle performance at the plate, 1987-2011Straightaway, you can see how on one level the skill position versus corner position distinction comes across as a bit arbitrary, because it’s clear that center field isn’t like the other skill positions. Indeed, last year it ranked as the third-most productive position, behind first base and right field. With that in mind, what does this mean?
Center field is strong, but not that strong. Historically, center fielders have always delivered more at the plate than all of the other up-the-middle slots, and also more than third basemen have in the past 25 years, averaging .269 over that time to the .267 teams have gotten from the hot corner.
What’s unusual these days is that center fielders did more good on offense in 2011 than third basemen and left fielders, something fairly rare. The last time anything like that happened was in 1984 -- a year when center fielders led both leagues in homers, Tony Armas winning the AL crown outright with 43 bombs for Boston, while Dale Murphy tied Mike Schmidt with 36 in the NL. But that was also a season when both leagues boasted a half-dozen really good players in center.
However, the standards for excellence in center field were higher, much higher, in the late ’60s and early ’70s, and were of course higher in the ’50s, when Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Duke Snider and Larry Doby ruled the middle pasture. In 1954, center field was baseball’s premium offensive position, with a .287 EqA. So, not to knock Kemp or Ellsbury, or Curtis Granderson and Andrew McCutchen, but as good as they are, this isn’t a new golden age for center fielders.
Second base has passed third base. I got into this a bit yesterday, and this might be considered a transient phenomenon, because it has been historically. However, do you really want to bet against Cano, Pedroia and Ian Kinsler? What if Jemile Weeks and Dustin Ackley break out as sophomores? What if Dan Uggla, Kelly Johnson and Aaron Hill all have great bounce-back seasons? What if Rickie Weeks and Chase Utley were healthy all year? But that last point is part of the problem for sustained greatness at the keystone: It’s a physically demanding position, and being a great player for any length of time at second base requires a huge element of skill and a little bit of luck when it comes to staying healthy.
Now, if they all come through, then sure, we could see a multiyear run for second base to wind up as a bigger impact offensive position than third base. But I’ll believe it after we see it.
Who needs the Trinity at short? The offensive standard for short has been higher over the past decade than it ever was at any point since division play started back in 1969. Remember, that’s despite four rounds of expansion.
Looking back, what really made Jeter and A-Rod and Nomar stand out, as Larkin and Trammell or Ripken and Robin Yount had stood out, was that they were pretty much alone. That’s because there were superstars and then there was a lot of reason to love Omar Vizquel or Edgar Renteria, because things got ugly fast. You don’t really want to remember Neifi Perez, do you? Desi Relaford? I’ve probably brought up Rey Ordonez one time too often for polite conversation.
Today, you still have the lamentably necessary guys like Yuniesky Betancourt or Ronny Cedeno, or Alcides Escobar’s on-the-job education in the major leagues, but if these represent the worst, they’re better than the bottom of the heap that existed in the past. The floor has come up, and we still have the true superstars, like Troy Tulowitzki and Jose Reyes. Let’s revel in their time, and also remember the Trinity, Ripken and Larkin as fondly as they deserve.
Catcher’s deep, still. Or, consider this another reason to not pardon the Angels for handicapping themselves with Jeff Mathis all these years, because there’s a difference between respecting a good receiver and ignoring his other responsibilities to playing baseball. (While we’re at it, there’s even less excuse for Drew Butera.)
Admittedly, being able to get Mike Napoli away from that kind of decision making and putting him in Texas is one way to improve matters. But keep in mind, with Victor Martinez moving out from behind the plate while Buster Posey and Joe Mauer missed big chunks of the season, catchers overall did a better job of contributing on offense in 2011 than they had in any year since 1997, so the overall depth behind the plate looks pretty good.
As you’ll notice from the chart, there’s been a lot of zigzagging around in catcher performance; it often drops behind shortstop, but sometimes tops it, and these days the two positions are running in tandem. Folks might still swear by Johnny Bench, but here again, we’ve got a lot of legitimate star-level talent out there; not just Posey and Mauer and Napoli, but also Brian McCann, Alex Avila, Miguel Montero, Carlos Santana and Yadier Molina. Then you can add in the durable catch-and-throw guys from the Jim Sundberg set, useful contributors at the plate and good receivers behind it: Carlos Ruiz, Matt Wieters, Russell Martin, and even Kurt Suzuki.
Put all of that together, and while we haven’t punched up this generation’s reputations with any special mystique, they can let their production be our guide. This may well be the deepest generation of catching talent in the history of the game, and there’s more coming, even with prospects like Wil Myers and Jesus Montero moving out from behind the dish. We still haven’t seen Jarrod Saltalamacchia really bust out. Austin Romine, Wilin Rosario, Derek Norris and Tony Sanchez are all on the way. If you love catching, you should love the present.
Tomorrow, to wrap things up we’ll have some fun talking about who best represents an average player at their respective positions.
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.
It seems as if not a winter goes by when you won’t wind up reading stories about the shortage of good catching (followed by the arrival of Koyie Hill on your team’s roster), or how landing people who can contribute at shortstop in the major leagues is difficult.
It’s sort of nonsense, because when you get right down to it, the standards for offense at catcher are stronger now than they were when we had just 26 or 28 teams. The amount of offense you can expect from your shortstops relative to league offense is higher now than it was in the glory days of the shortstop trinity of the ’90s, when Nomar Garciaparra, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez seemed to redefine offense from a position where Barry Larkin and Cal Ripken had been the standard.
But at the same time, we’re seeing players like Robinson Cano and Dustin Pedroia rank among the best players in baseball at second base, while Jacoby Ellsbury and Matt Kemp might have deserved their leagues’ respective MVP awards for their seasons in center.
First, let’s start with the performance levels from second base, shortstop, catcher and center field, from 1987-2011, using Clay Davenport’s Equivalent Average as our rough year-to-year guide. As noted before, .260 is the single-season baseline for the major leagues.
Christina Kahrl/ESPN.comUp the middle performance at the plate, 1987-2011Center field is strong, but not that strong. Historically, center fielders have always delivered more at the plate than all of the other up-the-middle slots, and also more than third basemen have in the past 25 years, averaging .269 over that time to the .267 teams have gotten from the hot corner.
What’s unusual these days is that center fielders did more good on offense in 2011 than third basemen and left fielders, something fairly rare. The last time anything like that happened was in 1984 -- a year when center fielders led both leagues in homers, Tony Armas winning the AL crown outright with 43 bombs for Boston, while Dale Murphy tied Mike Schmidt with 36 in the NL. But that was also a season when both leagues boasted a half-dozen really good players in center.
However, the standards for excellence in center field were higher, much higher, in the late ’60s and early ’70s, and were of course higher in the ’50s, when Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Duke Snider and Larry Doby ruled the middle pasture. In 1954, center field was baseball’s premium offensive position, with a .287 EqA. So, not to knock Kemp or Ellsbury, or Curtis Granderson and Andrew McCutchen, but as good as they are, this isn’t a new golden age for center fielders.
Second base has passed third base. I got into this a bit yesterday, and this might be considered a transient phenomenon, because it has been historically. However, do you really want to bet against Cano, Pedroia and Ian Kinsler? What if Jemile Weeks and Dustin Ackley break out as sophomores? What if Dan Uggla, Kelly Johnson and Aaron Hill all have great bounce-back seasons? What if Rickie Weeks and Chase Utley were healthy all year? But that last point is part of the problem for sustained greatness at the keystone: It’s a physically demanding position, and being a great player for any length of time at second base requires a huge element of skill and a little bit of luck when it comes to staying healthy.
Now, if they all come through, then sure, we could see a multiyear run for second base to wind up as a bigger impact offensive position than third base. But I’ll believe it after we see it.
Who needs the Trinity at short? The offensive standard for short has been higher over the past decade than it ever was at any point since division play started back in 1969. Remember, that’s despite four rounds of expansion.
Looking back, what really made Jeter and A-Rod and Nomar stand out, as Larkin and Trammell or Ripken and Robin Yount had stood out, was that they were pretty much alone. That’s because there were superstars and then there was a lot of reason to love Omar Vizquel or Edgar Renteria, because things got ugly fast. You don’t really want to remember Neifi Perez, do you? Desi Relaford? I’ve probably brought up Rey Ordonez one time too often for polite conversation.
Today, you still have the lamentably necessary guys like Yuniesky Betancourt or Ronny Cedeno, or Alcides Escobar’s on-the-job education in the major leagues, but if these represent the worst, they’re better than the bottom of the heap that existed in the past. The floor has come up, and we still have the true superstars, like Troy Tulowitzki and Jose Reyes. Let’s revel in their time, and also remember the Trinity, Ripken and Larkin as fondly as they deserve.
Catcher’s deep, still. Or, consider this another reason to not pardon the Angels for handicapping themselves with Jeff Mathis all these years, because there’s a difference between respecting a good receiver and ignoring his other responsibilities to playing baseball. (While we’re at it, there’s even less excuse for Drew Butera.)
Admittedly, being able to get Mike Napoli away from that kind of decision making and putting him in Texas is one way to improve matters. But keep in mind, with Victor Martinez moving out from behind the plate while Buster Posey and Joe Mauer missed big chunks of the season, catchers overall did a better job of contributing on offense in 2011 than they had in any year since 1997, so the overall depth behind the plate looks pretty good.
As you’ll notice from the chart, there’s been a lot of zigzagging around in catcher performance; it often drops behind shortstop, but sometimes tops it, and these days the two positions are running in tandem. Folks might still swear by Johnny Bench, but here again, we’ve got a lot of legitimate star-level talent out there; not just Posey and Mauer and Napoli, but also Brian McCann, Alex Avila, Miguel Montero, Carlos Santana and Yadier Molina. Then you can add in the durable catch-and-throw guys from the Jim Sundberg set, useful contributors at the plate and good receivers behind it: Carlos Ruiz, Matt Wieters, Russell Martin, and even Kurt Suzuki.
Put all of that together, and while we haven’t punched up this generation’s reputations with any special mystique, they can let their production be our guide. This may well be the deepest generation of catching talent in the history of the game, and there’s more coming, even with prospects like Wil Myers and Jesus Montero moving out from behind the dish. We still haven’t seen Jarrod Saltalamacchia really bust out. Austin Romine, Wilin Rosario, Derek Norris and Tony Sanchez are all on the way. If you love catching, you should love the present.
Tomorrow, to wrap things up we’ll have some fun talking about who best represents an average player at their respective positions.
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.
The SweetSpot National League All-Stars
September, 27, 2011
9/27/11
10:00
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Stephen Dunn/Getty ImagesClayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp have been the bright spots in a tough year for Dodger fans.Catcher: Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks (.283/.353/.471, 18 HR, 86 RBI). Atlanta's Brian McCann seemed the favorite here most of the season, but he hasn't been the same since straining an oblique in late July. He hit .146 in August and he's hitting .192 in September. Montero has a .969 OPS with runners on base and has thrown out 40 percent of runners on the bases.
First base: Joey Votto, Reds (.312/.418/.532, 28 HR, 102 RBI). A pretty easy choice over Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols. Fielder and Votto have similar numbers at the plate, but Votto gets a big edge in the field and on the bases.
Second base: Brandon Phillips, Reds (.300/.353/.458, 18 HR, 82 RBI). He's had his best all-around season, batting nearly 30 points over his career mark, posting a career-best on-base percentage and playing his usual excellent defense.
Third base: Pablo Sandoval, Giants (.314/.357/.553, 23 HR, 70 RBI). It wasn't a great year for NL third basemen, with Ryan Zimmerman and David Wright battling injuries and others having poor seasons. Sandoval gets the edge over the Cubs' Aramis Ramirez despite missing more than 40 games himself. But his overall batting line is superb in a tougher pitcher's park and his defense has been excellent, a big advantage over the cement-footed Ramirez.
Shortstop: Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies (.302/.372/.544, 30 HR, 105 RBI). Mets fans aren't going to like this with the season Jose Reyes had, but Tulo has 25 more home runs, more walks, is better with the glove and has played 20 more games. For those who label him only a Coors Field hitter, he's hit .292/.362/.519 on the road.
Outfield: Matt Kemp, Dodgers (.324/.399/.593, 38 HR, 123 RBI, 113 R). Here's a consideration: Is this greatest season ever by a Los Angeles Dodgers' position player? According to Baseball-Reference WAR, his season ranks only behind Adrian Beltre's 48-homer season in 2004, and just ahead of Mike Piazza's 1997. In fact, forget limiting it to just Los Angeles. The only Brooklyn Dodger seasons that rate higher are two from Jackie Robinson, in 1949 and 1951.
Outfield: Ryan Braun, Brewers (.334/.398/.601, 33 HR, 111 RBI, 107 R). In so-called High Leverage situations, he's hit .367/.408/.667. Yes, he's been awesome and clutch.
Outfield: Justin Upton, Diamondbacks (.291/.372/.533, 31 HR, 88 RBI, 105 R). Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman have had slightly better years with the bat, but Holliday missed too much time and Berkman can't match Upton in right field. And remember: He just turned 24.
Starting pitcher: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers (21-5, 2.28 ERA, 233.1 IP, 174 H, 54 BB, 248 SO). He leads the NL in wins, ERA and strikeouts as well as opponents' batting average, OBP and slugging percentage. It's called The Leap.
Starting pitcher: Roy Halladay, Phillies (19-6, 2.35 ERA, 233.2 IP, 208 H, 35 BB, 220 SO). Yeah, he's still pretty good.
Starting pitcher: Cliff Lee, Phillies (17-8, 2.40 ERA, 232.2 IP, 197 H, 42 BB, 238 SO). He had six shutouts (the first pitcher since Randy Johnson in 1998 with that many) and 11 starts where he allowed no runs. If he gets hot in the playoffs like he was in June (0.21 ERA) or August (0.45 ERA), watch out.
Starting pitcher: Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks (21-4, 2.88 ERA, 222 IP, 186 H, 55 BB, 198 SO). He went 12-1 with a 2.11 ERA in the second half to lead Arizona to the NL West title. Also went 10-0 against the NL West.
Starting pitcher: Cole Hamels, Phillies (14-9. 2.75 ERA, 213 IP, 165 H, 44 BB, 193 SO). Has allowed two runs or fewer in 21 of his 31 starts. Not bad for a No. 3 starter.
Setup: Tyler Clippard, Nationals (3-0, 37 holds, 1.85 ERA). He flew under the radar all season, but he leads the NL in holds, has more strikeouts (103 in 87.1 innings) and a lower WHIP than Jonny Venters. In a year with several outstanding setup men, he's been a dominant workhorse.
Closer: John Axford, Brewers (2-2, 45 saves, 2.01 ERA). Over Craig Kimbrel? Yes, Kimbrel owns an off-the-chart strikeout rate, but the closer's job is to preserve leads, not just strike batters out. Kimbrel has blown seven saves -- that's actually a lot for a modern closer. Axford is 45-for-47, including 42 in a row.
Player of the Year: Kemp. Braun may win the MVP Award and he'd be a deserving honoree, but I'm giving Kemp my mythical Player of the Year award. His big edge, of course, is that he plays center field. Given similar stats, you have to rate the center fielder over the left fielder.
Justin Upton, Ellsbury top MVP races
August, 12, 2011
8/12/11
11:22
AM ET
By
Eric Karabell | ESPN.com
US PresswireRyan Braun, Shane Victorino and Justin Upton are three of the NL's top MVP candidates.What matters to you when choosing whom to honor with an MVP award? I analyze many factors in choosing the best player for each league whether as part of discussion for the daily Baseball Today podcast or just when hanging out with friends or in the hallways of ESPN. Fair or not, I look at the standings as part of the process. Sure, it’s not Troy Tulowitzki’s fault that the Colorado Rockies likely will miss the playoffs, but I can’t vote for him when there are so many other deserving candidates.
Tulowitzki leads NL hitters in wins above replacement, according to the mighty FanGraphs.com, and his standout defense certainly plays a role in that, but as of this lovely Friday, I’m voting for someone else. To the right you’ll see my current top 10 for the NL MVP award, and lower in this blog we focus on the AL MVP. There’s still a long way to go in the season, but it’s always fun to debate MVPs.
Meanwhile, way to go, J-Up! Look, the Arizona Diamondbacks were not expected to be in first place this season, certainly not as late as mid-August. Justin Upton is among the leaders in home runs and runs created, is batting .302 and plays a terrific right field. Plus, the fact that his team wouldn’t be there without him matters. Tulowitzki’s team might be the Houston Astros without him, but focus on the positive: Upton’s having a great season as well, as he’s posting a 5.5 WAR, just a bit behind Tulowitzki’s 6.0.
Nine of the top 10 players in NL WAR made my top 10, with only Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto absent. Lance Berkman replaces him. For a while, he and Matt Holliday carried the Cardinals. You’ll see no sign of Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard, the NL's RBI leader, because RBIs are a misleading statistic. Howard is having the worst season of his career, and not only defensively. It’s notable that his Phillies teammate John Mayberry Jr. has almost the same WAR. Perhaps the Phillies can’t afford to lose him, but let’s not call it an MVP season. Half the Phillies' lineup has been more valuable to their team, believe it or not.
My choice for now: Upton.
The numbers say: Tulowitzki.
The voters would say: Probably Ryan Howard! OK, they’d say Prince Fielder.
* * * *
Meanwhile, in the American League it seems the top teams -- or make that top team -- have the top MVP choices. Certainly the Boston Red Sox have enjoyed the work of Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia and Adrian Gonzalez, among others. We’ve discussed this on recent podcasts, and while colleague and SweetSpot writer/editor David Schoenfield might choose the second baseman, I’m going with the center fielder. Gonzalez is not Ryan Howard, though he leads the AL in RBIs. He’s having a terrific season, but he’s been Boston’s third-best player.
There’s a great debate when it comes to Toronto Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista. He doesn’t bring much defensive value, and his team is certainly not looking like it will play meaningful October games. If Joey Bats had kept on pace and topped 50 home runs for the second consecutive year, with a dozen or so more than anybody else, he’d probably get my vote. But Bautista has slowed down; after starting July with seven home runs in the first nine games, he went the rest of the month without hitting one. So far in August he’s hitting .156. Plus, Bautista leads the home run race by only one over Mark Teixeira and Curtis Granderson.
As for my top 10 choices, Teixeira is actually outside the top 20 when it comes to AL WAR, so that he made my top 10 at all is a bit surprising. I couldn’t vote for Ian Kinsler and his .240 batting average even though he’s seventh in AL WAR, thanks in part to terrific second-base defense. I couldn’t go with Kansas City Royals outfielder Alex Gordon, who's producing big for a last-place team. Middle infielders Yunel Escobar and Howie Kendrick also have a higher WAR than either of the AL Central Cabreras, thanks to defense. Look, Asdrubal Cabrera makes a lot of highlight plays, but overall he is not having a strong season defensively, according to the metrics. Not even close. He has the same WAR as the Tigers’ Jhonny Peralta. But I have to give him credit for a surprising offensive campaign. The Indians might be in fourth place without him.
My choice for now: Ellsbury.
The numbers say: Bautista.
The voters would say: Probably Adrian Gonzalez or, if the Yankees catch the Sox, Granderson.
Be sure to check out Eric's blog on fantasy baseball. Follow him on Twitter @karabellespn.

