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OK, I'll give you Justin Verlander.

I'll even give you Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Austin Jackson.

But five through 25? I think I'll take the Cleveland Indians over the Detroit Tigers.

The Indians beat the Tigers 5-3 on Tuesday, even though Ubaldo Jimenez struggled once again with his control. Relief ace Chris Perez, who criticized Indians fans on Saturday for their lack of support (Cleveland is last in the majors in attendance), was greeted with a thunderous ovation as he came in out of the bullpen in the ninth inning. With two runners on, he struck out Cabrera and got Fielder to ground out.

Just another save. "That's the loudest I've ever been cheered here," Perez said. "I was pumped, the adrenaline was going. It could have gone the other way. I came through. I didn't know which way it was going to go. I was thankful it went the good way."

The good way pushed the Indians to 24-18. The Tigers are 20-22, and for the life of me I can't understand why everyone still thinks Detroit is the better team. Mind you, I'm not saying the Indians are better. I just don't see why the Tigers are better. Just because everyone picked them before the season?

Once you get past those big shiny names on the Tigers' roster, if you want to pinpoint one big difference between the two clubs, it's a little statistic that us sabermetric types love: the old base on balls. The Indians lead the American League with 188 walks, 25 more than any other team; the Tigers have 127 walks, ninth in the league. That patience will go a long ways toward giving Cleveland an offense capable of scoring as many runs as Detroit's (the Indians have outscored the Tigers by one run so far, 184 to 183).

In fact, when you go position by position, you'll see what I mean.

Catcher: Carlos Santana versus Alex Avila. So far, Avila has been unable to match 2011's .366 average on balls in play, the sixth-best average in the majors. Which means he's hitting like he did in 2010. Santana, meanwhile, is a walks machine who hit 27 home runs in 2011.

First base: Casey Kotchman versus Prince Fielder. Obvious edge to Fielder, of course. The most interesting thing about his start (.292/.354/.472) is his walk rate is down from 15.5 percent to 8.5 percent. Part of that is he was intentionally walked 32 times a year ago, just three this year.

Second base: Jason Kipnis versus Ramon Santiago/Ryan Raburn. Please. Big edge to Kipnis with Santiago and Raburn both hitting under .200. Will Detroit make a move here?

Third base: Jack Hannahan/Jose Lopez versus Miguel Cabrera. This may be the first and only time you'll see Jose Lopez mentioned in the same breath as Miguel Cabrera. So far, however, this edge has been minimal. Cabrera is hitting .304/.362/.488, Hannahan .287/.365/.436 but with better defense. According to Defensive Runs Saved, Cabrera has cost the Tigers four runs -- worst among third basemen (tied with Hanley Ramirez).

Shortstop: Asdrubal Cabrera versus Jhonny Peralta. With the Indians preaching plate discipline, check out Cabrera: Last year, 44 walks and 119 strikeouts; this year, 18 walks and just 12 strikeouts. He's hitting .309 with an OBP over .400 but hasn't lost any power. In 2011, he swung at 31 percent of the pitches out of the strike but he has cut that down to 24 percent. Small differences can go a long way. Peralta was a big surprise for Detroit last season but hasn't matched the numbers in the plate or in the field.

Left field: Johnny Damon/Shelley Duncan versus Andy Dirks/Delmon Young. Damon has looked terrible. Dirks has looked great, but too early to evaluate this one.

Center field: Michael Brantley versus Austin Jackson. With his defense and hot start at the plate, Jackson has been as valuable as any player in the American League not named Josh Hamilton.

Right field: Shin-Soo Choo versus Brennan Boesch. This one isn't close and that's with Choo off to a middling start in the power department. Choo has a .391 OBP, Boesch a .271 OBP. Choo is a solid defender while Boesch is slow and lumbering. With his poor start at the plate and poor defense, Boesch has been one of the worst regular in baseball so far. Choo is an underrated asset and I love Manny Acta's decision to move him into the leadoff spot.

Designated hitter: Travis Hafner versus field. Cleveland's designated hitters have six homers and .370 OBP (fourth in the league). Detroit's DHs have one home run and a .238 OBP (13th in the league). Big, big edge to Pronk.

Rotation. With the best pitcher on the planet, Detroit's rotation has posted a 3.87 ERA; without the best pitcher on the planet, Cleveland's rotation has posted a 3.94 ERA. Both teams have played 42 games and Cleveland's starters have thrown 12 more innings. Moving forward, maybe you think Detroit's group will perform better. After all, Doug Fister missed some, Max Scherzer just struck out 15 in game (never mind that the Pirates have been an historic strikeout binge of late) and Rick Porcello will put it together one of these years, because everyone says so. Meanwhile, Ubaldo Jimenez can't throw strikes, Justin Masterson hasn't pitched as well as last year and Derek Lowe is doing it with smoke, mirrors and a deal with the devil. The one thing the Cleveland starters do is keep the ball in the park; they've allowed 20 home runs, second-fewest in the league. Look, maybe you think Scherzer will start pitching better; I'd say so will Masterson. Maybe you're a Porcello believer; I'm not, especially with that infield defense behind him. Lowe is a fluke? Well, let's see how Drew Smyly does as the scouting reports get around on him.

Bullpen. Neither pen has been stellar, as Cleveland's 4.16 ERA ranks 13th in the AL and Detroit's 4.76 ranks 14th. Cleveland's top guys, however, have been pretty solid -- Chris Perez is 14 of 15 in save opportunities while Vinnie Pestano, Joe Smith and Nick Hagadone have pitched well. Detroit's top two of Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit, so dominant a year ago, have both struggled to throw strikes.

I said before the season that I believed the Tigers were drastically overrated. On the Baseball Today podcast late in spring training, I predicted Cleveland would win the division. Unfortunately, when ESPN.com published predictions a few days later, I changed my pick to Detroit. I bought into the hype.

I'm not buying any longer. This division is wide, wide open. (And I haven't even mentioned the White Sox!)

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Forget Albert Pujols. There's another reason to watch the Los Angeles Angels, and his name is Mike Trout.

For all the hype Bryce Harper has rightfully received, it's time to start giving a few headlines to another rookie phenom, time to give the Left Coast a little love. Trout went 3-for-4 with a home run, a stolen base and three runs scored in the Angels' 4-0 victory over the A's on Tuesday. In 15 games since getting recalled from Triple-A, Trout is hitting .316 BA/.369 OBP/.561 SLG, reminding Angels fans what an All-Star batting line is supposed to look like and why a homegrown, five-tool rookie with young, fresh legs is a player to get more pumped about watching than a money-for-hire Hall of Famer you purchased on the free-agent market.

So while we wait for Pujols to get untracked, maybe the Angels' answer to their offensive prayers -- they've been shut out an MLB-leading eight times -- is a kid who doesn't turn 21 until August.

Against Bartolo Colon, he took a middle-in fastball and crushed it just to the right of center field, off the back wall behind the center-field fence in Anaheim. There aren't many leadoff hitters who can mash a pitch with that type of authority. The other day, he showcased his quick, compact swing, yanking a 2-1 fastball from Yu Darvish well over the left-field fence in Texas. His first home run came on a 1-0 fastball off Toronto's Kyle Drabek, a 93 mph heater low in the zone that Trout hit to left-center.

I think those returns are pretty clear: Trout can do some serious damage when he gets into a fastball count.

Trout is even faster than Harper and much more advanced defensively (although he lacks Harper's arm). And for all the awe for Harper's quick rise, Trout is only a year older. Like Harper, he debuted in the majors while still 19 years old. Like the previous two 19-year-old center-field phenoms -- a couple of guys named Andruw Jones and Ken Griffey Jr. -- Trout has that broad range of skills that should make him a franchise player as he matures.

My favorite aspect of the Trout/Harper comparisons is that the two will always be linked, even though they play in different leagues and cities three time zones apart. Just like we debated Rodriguez and Jeter and Garciaparra back in the late '90s, or like New Yorkers debated Mays and Mantle and Snider in the 1950s, I'm sure we'll be endlessly debating Trout and Harper for years to come.

The other highly rated prospects entering the season were Tampa Bay Rays lefty Matt Moore and Mariners catcher/designed hitter Jesus Montero. They aren't off to impressive starts like Trout and Harper, but let's take a closer look at them as well.

Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
I'll make this one brief. We've seen Harper's lightning-quick bat speed and raw power with his home runs in back-to-back games -- one blast to dead center and the one Tuesday to deep right-center. We've also seen a few misplays in the field, however, from losing a ball in the darkened skies Sunday to dropping a fly ball Monday.

And of course, we've seen the rocket arm and the top-grade athleticism. There's no reason to believe he can't be a superb fielder with more experience. I think the biggest positive is his strikeout rate hasn't been excessive, with 11 in 60 at-bats. Along with his ability to hit left-handers, that was the big concern of his premature call-up. While there were initial thoughts that his time in the majors would be temporary, his play and the Nationals' injuries mean he's here to stay.

Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays
When I polled the SweetSpot network bloggers before the season for their American League rookie of the year predictions, Moore came out on top, outpointing Darvish. I wasn't quite as optimistic, as I believed Moore's spectacular playoff performance against the Rangers raised expectations to unrealistic levels. The only rookie starter since 2000 to pitch at least 162 innings with an ERA less than 3.00 was Jeremy Hellickson, and his flukey .224 average on balls in play had something to do with that. With Moore, I still wanted to see a guy who had the consistent command needed to dominate in the majors.

That's been a big issue with him so far, as he's walked 22 batters in 39 innings, a rate of 5.1 walks per nine. As Justin Havens of ESPN Stats & Info points out, Moore also has struggled with runners on base:


Justin also writes that Moore "continues to leave entirely too many balls up in the zone, ranking sixth out of 115 pitchers in percentage of total pitches 'up' in the zone." This ties into Moore having the third-highest walk rate (12.4 percent) among starters, behind only Ubaldo Jimenez and Drabek, and six home runs allowed in seven starts.

There are no major issues here, other than pointing out that most young pitchers do go through a learning curve. Hellickson -- who doesn't have the raw stuff Moore owns -- set the bar high with his own rookie campaign, but that type of season is the exception.

Jesus Montero, Seattle Mariners
It's also a mixed bag so far with Montero. With five home runs, he's displayed the power stroke scouts projected. His overall batting line of .256/.285/.411, however, isn't much to get excited about, as the occasional long ball is marred by a poor 29/6 strikeout/walk ratio.

There are a few things going on here. He has expanded the strike zone, swinging at 36.2 percent of pitches outside the strike zone. That's not necessarily a career-killing attribute (Josh Hamilton currently has the second-highest rate in the majors), but it's among the 30 worst percentages so far. The bigger problem is he isn't making contract on those pitches and certainly not good contact. He's swinging and missing at those pitches 56.6 percent of the time, which again places him among the 30 worst rates.

When you dig deeper into the numbers, it's pretty clear what's happening. Check out the heat maps below. On the left, Montero against "hard" stuff, and on the right, Montero against "soft" stuff.



Against "hard" stuff, he's hitting .362 (25-for-69) with four home runs and five doubles. Against "soft" stuff, he's hitting .133 (8-for-60) with one home run and no doubles. So if pitchers get ahead in the count, they can get Montero to chase the offspeed stuff out of the zone.

A final issue is Montero's ability -- or lack of it -- to pull the ball. While he's known for his opposite-field power, I'm not sure you can live off that trait alone. Of Montero's five home runs, two have gone to right-center, one to center and two to left-center. His hit chart is littered with fly balls to right field and the right-field line. Frankly, he just hasn't shown the ability to pull the ball with any authority. To me, this reads like a guy who can be jammed inside and will chase pitches outside. Look, the pitch recognition should improve, but he's going to have to figure out how to do more damage to all fields.

The injury to Miguel Olivo also forced the Mariners to play Montero more regularly behind the plate. I haven't seen the defensive butcher advertised, but he's clearly a work in progress. A couple of starts ago, Kevin Millwood was constantly shaking him off. However, the two were on the same page in Millwood's win over the Yankees on Sunday. Opponents are 8-for-10 stealing bases off him.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

We’re almost a fifth of the way into the season, and many of the expected storylines in both leagues have gotten the usual attention. The East divisions get the attention because both provide full five-team tangles of contenders and pretenders, with heightened expectations raised higher still with the addition of two more wild-card entries this postseason. The NL Central has bad blood and historic rivalries. And the Wests have the L.A. teams riding their respective highs and lows. The Rangers have a pair of pennants. The NL West gives you a surprise team every season.

Who’s missing from all that? The AL Central, and perhaps it’s easy to see why. The division is home to baseball’s two worst teams, the Twins and the Royals, by any standard you might care to measure such things by: record or run differential. Only a simple Pythagorean interpretation of the Royals’ runs scored and allowed gets them out of their duet with the Twins at the very bottom of the majors, but even that might be generous, because however many runs the Royals sporadically get, it’s tough to outscore one of the only two rotations that can’t generate a quality start even a third of the time. And the other starting staff that is that bad? The Twins -- what, you needed to ask? -- even after Scott Diamond’s masterful shutdown of the Angels on Tuesday night.

But you can’t just blame this dud-ly duo at the bottom of the standings. The three teams competing for a playoff slot that’s theirs as a matter of geographical destiny aren’t blowing the league away in the early going. The Indians, White Sox and Tigers are a combined three games over .500, and have a combined run differential of zero. Taken collectively, they’re three teams around .500 that are supposed to be .500.

Now sure, that’s fun with math, because the Indians have slipped out to a modest early lead with their 17-12 start. However, that just echoes last year’s 30-15 season-starting run: Cause for celebrations on the banks of the Cuyahoga, and healthy skepticism everywhere else.

Can the Tribe be taken any more seriously this time around? Maybe if Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Masterson get a handle on their early-season control problems, that would help, but their front five doesn't match up well with the best rotations.

On offense, they’re currently 10th in the American League in ISO or isolated slugging; it’s hard to identify where they’re going to get a major power boost as the season progresses. Johnny Damon hasn’t been a moderately useful power source for an outfield corner or DH since he left the Yankees after 2009. Grady Sizemore would be if and when his latest comeback gets under way. ‘Soon,’ ‘June’ and ‘when the cow jumps over the moon’ all seem like reasonable answers given his track record. Casey Kotchman isn’t hitting; he rarely does.

Which suggests that the Indians’ best fix on offense is currently outside the organization. First base is usually a good spot to find a free agent-to-be on a non-contender and trade for him as a two-month temp at the deadline, but next winter’s crop of free agents at first base is mostly appalling: Aubrey Huff? Carlos Lee? But how about Kevin Youkilis, as Gordon Edes has pointed out? Indians fans can certainly hope, but GM Chris Antonetti doesn’t have a ton to work with.

What of the White Sox? In all their early celebrations over Adam Dunn’s resurrection and A.J. Pierzynski popping a quick five homers, there’s still Gordon Beckham's and Brent Morel's slack bats. Homegrown Dayan Viciedo has fit right into that brand of ghastliness, struggling to post an OPS above .600. And with their whipsawing Chris Sale moving from the rotation to the pen, it’s clear they haven’t entirely figured what they can do with the working parts they do have.

So barring the Indians making some sort of game-changing deal, this really should still be the Tigers’ division to win. That might sound like a declaration of faith in the famous people, but propositions that start with names like Verlander, Miggy or Prince involve happier endings than those that rely on Pronk or Becks.

They aren’t perfect, of course, and a lot of that is because of the rest of Jim Leyland’s crew. I don’t blame you if you’re a Brennan Boesch skeptic -- has any other 27-year-old corner outfielder with a .424 career SLG ever inspired so much faith he’s going to be something more? -- or unconvinced that Delmon Young is ever going to really break out. But eventually Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder and Alex Avila will have more to work with than they have had in the early going.

At least in the rotation Doug Fister’s already back, and if Drew Smyly pans out, maybe he’s the third starter that Max Scherzer hasn’t been or Rick Porcello isn’t ready to be. But it says something that you have to already count on Fister as a sure thing as their No. 2, something nobody would have said about him on anybody’s team a year ago.

This early, though, project them over 162 games and the Tigers still look like the one team in the division with a legit shot at 90 wins. So I’d suggest Tigers fans keep the faith. They may feel letdown by initial expectations that they’d romp from day one, but a couple of long months beating up on the Twins and Royals will help. Barring an in-season overhaul for the Indians, it’s still Detroit’s division to win.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

After my father and I nearly froze to death from 16 innings of Opening Day “magic” at Thursday’s Indians game, he turned to me and asked, “What if it goes extra innings on Saturday as well?” I responded by saying, “Ubaldo Jimenez will probably give up seven or eight runs in the first couple of innings. Dan Wheeler will be sent in for mop-up duty, and he’ll give up a few more. The offense will be terrible, so it will assuredly end in nine innings.”

I’m glad to say that if I had to be wrong about one of those statements, it was the one about Jimenez. Nobody really knew what to expect from Jimenez today, but Indians fans seemed to fear the worst. He was all over the map in spring training, and was shaky after he plunked Troy Tulowitzki against Colorado last Sunday. With a five-game suspension looming (Jimenez announced that he will drop his appeal) and the ongoing drama with the Rockies, would he be able to put all of that behind him and help the Indians bounce back from their heartbreaking loss Thursday?

Jimenez looked sharp today, and despite the fact that he earned a no-decision in Cleveland's 7-4, 12-inning loss, he took a perfect game into the sixth inning, and a no-hitter into the seventh. From what I saw on the radar gun at the ballpark, he topped out at 93 mph and looked like he was throwing a lot of off-speed pitches. His command, a problem at times this spring, was sharp until the sixth inning. He was able to quiet the bat of Jose Bautista, which no Indians pitcher seemed able to do on Thursday (including Justin Masterson).

While I’m certainly not ready to declare last summer’s trade with Colorado a complete success yet, it has to make Indians fans feel a little bit better to see a strong opening performance from Jimenez. I expected to see more tension and excitement at today’s game as it reached the later innings. The closest I’ve ever been to witnessing a no-hitter was when Cliff Lee took one into the eighth inning against the Cardinals on June 14, 2009; on that night, you could just feel the electricity in the air at Progressive Field, as if something really special was taking place. Today, much of the crowd around me appeared to be disengaged, or Toronto fans. Nobody really seemed to fully grasp the performance they were seeing from Jimenez.

To be fair, most people with a rooting interest in the Indians were preoccupied with complaints about the Indians’ offense. The Tribe has now played 28 innings of baseball in just two games. In those 28 innings, they’ve scored eight runs, six of which have come via the home run. The Indians left just three runners on base on Saturday, two of which were left stranded in the 12th inning after Toronto had already gone ahead by four. While there were a number of missed opportunities on Thursday, they didn’t even have any opportunities to miss this afternoon. In their first two games they’ve had just 12 hits, and three of those came in the bottom of the 12th today. The “major” free agent signing this winter, Casey Kotchman, has started the season 0-for-12. He has yet to hit a ball out of the infield; a couple of his groundouts today didn’t even make it past the pitcher’s mound.

The “Bullpen Mafia” has shown some signs of weakness early in the season, with Chris Perez, Jairo Asencio, Vinnie Pestano, and Tony Sipp all responsible for surrendering runs in pivotal situations. With the offense as weak as it has looked these first two games, the Indians would probably still be playing Thursday’s game if the bullpen continued to hold the Toronto offense scoreless. Both Thursday and today, manager Manny Acta appeared slow to pull the trigger once Perez and Sipp got into trouble. Nobody was warming up, and nobody even tried to stall for time to get someone else up in the bullpen. When your team is struggling to score runs, a quick hook with a struggling bullpen pitcher may be the best form of action.

Even though the Indians have only played two games thus far, Masterson and Jimenez have been the bright spots in both. This offseason, fans were most worried about the starting pitching and the offense. Even though it’s far too soon to declare the starting pitching situation “fine,” I’ve seen enough from the offense to know that I’m concerned. Masterson went eight innings on Thursday, and Jimenez lasted seven today; you can’t ask for much more than that from your starting pitchers.

Now the offense needs to step up and prove that these two games were a fluke, and not the norm. Perhaps they just need to start a feud with Troy Tulowitzki and the Colorado Rockies. It seemed to work for Jimenez.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Stephanie Liscio blogs about the Indians for the SweetSpot network at "It's Pronounced 'Lajaway'," and can be followed on Twitter at @stephanieliscio.

Ah, April is here! Mark Simon and I tried to harness our joy for the season’s first official month in Monday’s Baseball Today podcast, discussing Power Rankings, ridiculous questions (and ridiculous on-field maneuvers) as well!

1. Let’s just say we’ve got different teams in our respective top 10s, and in a different order. The differences (Rangers versus Angels, where the Red Sox, Tigers and Phillies rank) are interesting.

2. Ubaldo Jimenez did a bad thing Sunday, but will it actually hurt the Indians? And does anyone look good from the beaning incident?

3. Congrats to Jamie Moyer for making the Rockies! Mark shares tweets about other professorial baseball players.

4. In search of some off-the-wall baseball season predictions, Mark involves Tim Tebow, Martin Brodeur and the MLS.

5. It wouldn’t be a Simon show without some ridiculous questions of the day and a little singing, and we’ve got it today!

So download and listen to Monday’s excellent Baseball Today podcast. It’ll make you laugh and cry.

Links to check out from around the SweetSpot network (and a couple other places):

• The Royals apparently made a lot of money last season.
• Bill Baer examines the pros and cons of some potential trade targets if the Phillies decide to add infield depth.
• Is Clay Buchholz the key to Boston's success? There is a lot riding on a pitcher who has never made 30 major league starts in a season and more than 16 just once.
• Who is the real Ubaldo Jimenez? The stud of 2010 or not-the-awesome version of 2011? Brenden Lowery takes a look.
• The guys at Disciples of Uecker have started a podcast. Listen in if you're a Brewers fan -- or even if you're not a Brewers fan.
• Likewise, Pro Ball NW has started a podcast. Check it out, Mariners fans!
• Brandon Cloud with a good examination of what the Rockies need from their rotation.
• Is it time to worry yet about Justin Morneau?
• Mike Morse is hurting. And the Nationals don't have a good solution to replace his bat. When the possibilities include Jason Michaels and Xavier Nady ...
• Third base will be an important position for the Reds. Our friends at Redleg Nation take a closer look at Scott Rolen, Todd Frazier and Juan Francisco.
• Is there a chance the "Zambrano trade" will end up being remembered as the "Chris Volstad trade"?
• What should the Yankees do with Michael Pineda? Dave Cameron has an idea.
• In an excerpt from the new Baseball Prospectus book, "Extra Innings: More Baseball Behind the Numbers," Colin Wyers asks: Are relievers being used properly?
• A's blogger Jason Wojciechowski has been running a series at The Platoon Advantage called "the path to respectability." He takes bad teams and shows how they could win 88 games. Here's his look at the A's.
• Arizona minor leaguer Adam Eaton received a bunch of $20,000 checks. Trouble is: They were intended for the other Adam Eaton.
• Baseball-Reference.com has added Negro Leagues stats. Sparse and very incomplete, but also very cool.
• Jon Shepherd has his 2012 preseason talent rankings, based on projected WAR. No surprises: the Yankees are No. 1, the Astros No. 30.

All for now. Enjoy your weekend!

Michael Baumann of Crashburn Alley has a fun post on a theoretical question: If your life depended on winning the next 10 World Series, who do you pick for your 25-man roster? Money is no object. Injuries are a factor. Your team can't be too old, or it won't win down the road. It can't be too young or it won't win now. So who do you take? I like Michael's list, although I disagree with him on a couple of choices. Gerritt Cole over David Price or Justin Verlander (who isn't that old)? And he selected three relievers; I'd punt the relievers all together and draft 10 or 11 starting pitchers.

Other stuff:

• Chip Buck asks: Where should Jacoby Ellsbury hit in the Red Sox lineup?
• Jon Shields on Felix Hernandez, who has lost weight (check the photo in Jon's post), talked about staying in Seattle, and said his slider "went on vacation" last year.
• Game 162 of 2011 is history, but Chris Glover looks through the lens of that game for the Tampa Bay Rays and what it means for 2012.
• Craig Brown has a response to Royals manager Ned Yost saying Yuniesky Betancourt will start three or four times per week. Royals fans suddenly aren't enjoying spring training quite as much.
• The Pirates have locked up Andrew McCutchen long-term. Should the Braves do the same thing with Jason Heyward?
• Susan Petrone looks at the spring training histories of Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Masterson, who both got beat up in their first spring outings.
• Will this be a breakout season for Yovani Gallardo?
• Brandon Belt says he wants to be more aggressive. Chris Quick takes a closer look.
• Will Chris Davis ever become a quality major leaguer? There's no denying the power, but the strikeouts and defense have prevented him from holding a full-time job. He turns 26 in March, so this may be his last chance to earn a starting job. Jon Shepherd has an interesting comparison for Davis: Eric Karros, a guy who struggled at the start of his career but ended up with some quality seasons.
• View from the Bleachers is doing season player previews. Here Chet West's take on Carlos Marmol, the Jekyll and Hyde of closers.
• Considering Scott Rolen's injury history, the Reds may have to rely on Juan Francisco to play third base at some point this season. But is he in Dusty Baker's doghouse?
• Hudson Belinsky has a look at how Chris Iannetta has hit away from Coors Field and how he changes his approach.
• Finally, make sure you vote in the Value Over Replacement Grit's March Moniker Madness tournament to determine the best name in baseball history.

Last year, You Can't Predict Baseball came up with bold predictions for the year. We had a lot of fun coming up with them, and then laughing at how hilariously wrong they were at the end of the year. This year, we're bringing these predictions to SweetSpot, along with explanations for some of them. Keep in mind, these predictions are supposed to be bold, but not insane -- even we know the Orioles aren't going to the playoffs in 2012.

Los Angeles Angels: Kendrys Morales stays healthy all year.

Houston Astros: Bud Norris is top five in K/9 in the NL. We figured something good had to happen to the Astros, right? Norris actually has a pretty nice career K/9.

Oakland Athletics: Yoenis Cespedes is their starting center fielder by Memorial Day.

Toronto Blue Jays: Brandon Morrow makes the jump to elite starting pitcher. He's struck out more than 10 batters per 9 innings two years running, though his ERAs have remained ugly. We think this is the year his results finally match the stuff, especially considering his declining walk rate.

Atlanta Braves: Julio Teheran has more wins than Tim Hudson.

Milwaukee Brewers: Rickie Weeks leads the team in home runs. He was fourth on the team last year, with 20. In front of him were Corey Hart with 26, Ryan Braun with 33, and Prince Fielder with 38. Fielder is gone, and for this prediction we'll assume Braun will miss a third of the year due to a suspension. It's not too bold to think Weeks could pass Hart in 2012.

St. Louis Cardinals: Carlos Beltran outproduces Albert Pujols from last year. Albert Pujols was great last year, but not quite best-player-of-his-generation Albert Pujols. If healthy, it's not absurd to think of Beltran outproducing Pujols' 5.1 WAR in 2011.

Chicago Cubs: Matt Garza isn't their best pitcher. It'll be Ryan Dempster, who had great peripherals but bad results last year.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Aaron Hill will be good again. He was great with them in limited time, and Arizona's park is quite hitter-friendly.

Los Angeles Dodgers: James Loney will be a top-three first baseman in the National League. Many thanks to Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness for somewhat alerting us to this one. We just decided to take it semi-absurdly far.

San Francisco Giants: Madison Bumgarner is their best pitcher. In terms of ERA, he already wasn't very far behind Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, and his K/BB ratio eclipsed theirs by quite a bit.

Cleveland Indians: They'll have the best pitching in the American League Central. We're banking on Ubaldo Jimenez, making a major comeback to something closer to what he was in 2010, and the rest of the staff displaying the good that they did in 2011. We're also counting on the Tigers' starters not being very impressive behind Justin Verlander, which is bold but not quite insane, and the pitching of the White Sox, Twins and Royals not being able to keep up with Cleveland's.

Seattle Mariners: Jesus Montero catches 100-plus games. The Mariners probably aren't going to compete, so why not try and play him where he'll accrue the most value?

Miami Marlins: Despite all their new acquisitions and the hype, they still finish fourth in the NL East. When you think about it, this one isn't so crazy. If Josh Johnson isn't healthy and maybe even if he is their pitching still trails that of Philadelphia, Washington, and Atlanta; even with Heath Bell, we don't think their bullpen is as good, either. Their offense might be better than some of those teams', but the Marlins were quite a bit below league average offensively last year and we're not sure how much Jose Reyes is going to make up for that.

New York Mets: Mike Pelfrey is the worst starter in the NL. Pelfrey's been pretty terrible two of the past three years, and now they're moving the fences in at Citi Field. He was far better in his huge home stadium, but we're guessing with the moved-in walls he'll be significantly worse at Citi. Here at YCPB, we actually don't think the Mets are going to be quite as dire as many are saying, even if they do come in last place in the NL East - but Pelfrey won't be a bright spot.

Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg has a 17-strikeout game.

Baltimore Orioles: Matt Wieters is the best catcher in the AL. A lot of people are so obsessed with Wieters not matching the hype that they didn't notice he became a plus offensive performer last year, to go along with very good defense. His taking the next step isn't that bold as predictions go, especially if Joe Mauer has to move off catcher.

San Diego Padres: Luke Gregerson is a top-three closer in the NL.

Philadelphia Phillies: Cole Hamels is their best starter. And this isn't meant to be a slight to Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee, but considering their ages and the fact that Hamels is pretty darn good himself, plus a possible boost from a contract year...

Pittsburgh Pirates: Charlie Morton is their All-Star.

Texas Rangers: Yu Darvish isn't their best starter -- but he's still good. And we think he'll be pretty good, we just think Derek Holland will become more consistently good, or Matt Harrison will put up numbers like his 2011.

Tampa Bay Rays: James Shields will have no complete games. Predicting someone to have no complete games might not seem bold, but it is when it's a guy who was known as "Complete Game James" last season. Shields did have 11 complete games in 2011, an almost unheard-of number these days, but he had no complete games in 2009 or 2010.

Boston Red Sox: No one hits 30 home runs. This might seem crazy when you consider their great offensive numbers last year, but only one player on their team hit 30 home runs and it was Jacoby Ellsbury with 32.

Cincinnati Reds: Brandon Phillips is the best second baseman in the NL.

Colorado Rockies: Jamie Moyer will have the best HR/9 on the staff.

Kansas City Royals: They reach .500. While their pitching won't be great, their offense will take a big step forward this year. Combined with the rest of their division being the Tigers and some dumpster fires, it's not that difficult to see it happening.

Detroit Tigers: They score fewer runs than they did in 2011. Yes, that’s even with Fielder. It's not improbable that Jhonny Peralta, Alex Avila and Delmon Young regress quite a bit from their numbers with Detroit last year, and that Prince Fielder's production "only" makes up for the offensive loss of Victor Martinez in 2012. They'll still have a very good offense, though.

Minnesota Twins: Joe Mauer hits 15 home runs.

Chicago White Sox: Robin Ventura gets ejected more times than Ozzie Guillen. Look at the state of the White Sox. We'd get ejected too.

New York Yankees: Hiroki Kuroda leads the team in ERA.

You Can't Predict Baseball is an affiliate of the SweetSpot network.

As camps open in Arizona and Florida, we put it to the SweetSpot network: Which player from your team are you most excited to watch this season, and why? First up, the answers from the American League.

Baltimore Orioles: Matt Wieters


Why Wieters? He's likely the team's best player, and he's the only one I want to watch whenever he's on the field. At the plate it will be interesting to see if he can build on his 22-homer campaign from 2011 while improving in other areas (a higher average and especially OBP would be nice) to potentially take a place as one of baseball's best hitting catchers. Behind the dish, every stolen-base attempt is exciting (he led the AL in nabbing opposing would-be thieves last year). Can he go from being a very good player to a star? If he does, that could be the most exciting part of Baltimore's season. -- Daniel Moroz, Camden Depot

Boston Red Sox: Daniel Bard


Bard is an object of intrigue this season. He was originally drafted as a starter but after an implosion at the low levels of the minors he was shifted to relief and blossomed as one of the best young arms in the game, becoming the heir apparent to Jonathan Papelbon in the ninth. Instead, Boston has elected to try the starting gambit again, where Bard could become the 2012 version of Alexi Ogando. He needs to develop his changeup further and there are questions on how his control and endurance will hold up on a transition, but he has front-line potential if all goes well. If not, it's back to the purgatory of middle relief, which may force a trade. His ceiling and the risk of the conversion will make him one of the more intriguing players on the Red Sox to watch. -- Evan Brunell, Fire Brand of the AL

Chicago White Sox: Chris Sale


The one guy who’s really going to be fun to watch this spring is the rail-thin Sale. The lefty’s power slider/fastball mix has him well-equipped to make the jump to the rotation in his age-23 season, and he might be the latest success story to add to pitching coach Don Cooper’s track record for success. The questions revolve around his ability to sustain the workload, but Cooper has already noted Sale will have an innings cap. What shot the Sox have got will rely on their rotation; if Sale breaks through, Kenny Williams’ winter inactivity may not look so bad. -- Christina Kahrl

Cleveland Indians: Ubaldo Jimenez


As a child, part of the excitement of Christmas morning was the mystery of what magical toys Santa left under the tree during the night. Was it what you'd been asking for all year or was there some kind of surprise in store? (Like socks.) That's one of the reasons we're excited to watch Ubaldo Jimenez this season. Which version of Jimenez will be in the Indians' rotation: The 2010 NL Cy Young contender or the inconsistent thrower that Cleveland fans saw in 2011? The Indians could use another ace beyond Justin Masterson. When the Tribe surrendered Drew Pomeranz and Alex White for Jimenez, it was a move that angered many fans and left others cautiously optimistic at best. While an incredible pitching performance isn't the only thing that determines a team's fortunes (see Cliff Lee, 2008), a great year for Jimenez could go a long way in determining the success of the Indians this season. If Jimenez struggles early, already pessimistic and dejected Indians fans may be ready to throw in the towel early. -- Stephanie Liscio and Susan Petrone, It’s Pronounced “Lajaway”

Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera


You can take Justin Verlander and his impressive hardware. You can also have Prince Fielder and his nine-year contract. The player I'm most interested in is Miguel Cabrera. Will he play third base all year? How much will his defense (or Fielder) affect his offense? Can he continue his streak of 300/30/100 seasons? Cabrera is human, he's shown that to us in the past, and his new challenges are an intriguing storyline. -- Josh Worn, Walkoff Woodward

Kansas City Royals: Mike Moustakas


As he moved up the organizational ladder, Moose developed the reputation as a player with a learning curve delay: Whenever he moved up a rung, he would start slowly before making adjustments and laying waste to that league’s pitching. He held true to form last summer, struggling in his big-league debut to the point that there were whispers the Royals were considering dropping him back to Triple-A. Instead they opted to give him three days off to work with hitting guru Kevin Seitzer, breaking down his swing. It worked, as he ripped through September. Moustakas is poised to pair with teammate Eric Hosmer to give the Royals a one-two punch in the middle of the lineup they'll need to contend in the AL Central. If Moustakas can build on his September, he has the potential to be a special player in Kansas City for years to come. -- Craig Brown, Royals Authority

Los Angeles Angels: Albert Pujols


As you may have heard, Pujols signed with the Angels this offseason. The team has plenty of exciting players, but Pujols will be the man to watch in 2012. Can he bounce back after the worst season of his career? How will he adjust to the American League? There are plenty of questions about the 32-year-old and his huge contract, but we’ll see many of them answered this season. It should be a fun ride. -- Hudson Belinsky, Halos Daily

Minnesota Twins: Joe Mauer


In many ways, Joe Mauer's 2011 campaign was emblematic of Minnesota's season as a whole. He was hurt often, he didn't get it done on the field and he drew plenty of criticism from media and fans. The Twins, in their second year at a new stadium and with a record payroll, were a huge disappointment. Mauer, in the first year of a massive new contract, was a big reason why. So now he and the team are coming into 2012 with much to prove. Reports on his health have been encouraging and, as he showed in 2009 when he lifted an otherwise mediocre team to the playoffs with an MVP performance, Mauer can be a difference-maker. Relying on a roster dotted with more question marks than a Riddler costume, the Twins are going to need a few of those. -- Nick Nelson, Nick’s Twins Blog

New York Yankees: Michael Pineda


Ever since the Yankees missed out on Cliff Lee before the 2011 season, GM Brian Cashman has been preaching patience to Yankees fans. That patience finally paid off this January when they dealt top prospect Jesus Montero to the Mariners for Pineda. Ever since, Yankees fans have been impatient for the season to start to get a good look at their new young pitcher because there is more than just this season riding on Pineda's success. If he's a failure, Yankees fans will be crying for years watching Montero smack homers out in Seattle. -- Rob Abruzzese, Bronx Baseball Daily

Oakland Athletics: Yoenis Cespedes


Cespedes is so blindingly obviously the most exciting aspect of the on-field product in Oakland that I'm tempted to be contrarian and claim that I'm jazzed for Josh Reddick's soft Georgia accent and cannon arm instead. I can't bring myself to it, though, because the raw power that Cespedes (supposedly) carries in his bat as a (reportedly) legit center fielder who is (apparently) ready to play (more or less) right now beckons. It's both what's inside and outside the parentheses that makes Cespedes so compelling. Forget about his range afield; his range of possible outcomes is breathtaking. Early Bobby Bonds and late Bobby Crosby both seem well within reach. And if the most compelling part of Cespedes' season winds up being a chase for the strikeout record in September? Well, my most prized A's possession is a Jack Cust shirt, so that suits me fine. -- Jason Wojciechowski, Beaneball

Seattle Mariners: Felix Hernandez


Picking anyone else would feel wrong -- Felix is the Mariner to be most excited about in 2012. The King is 6 1/2 seasons deep into his Mariner career and has at very least gotten himself in the conversation with Randy Johnson as the franchise's premier hurler. With a full season of King's Court -- the best thing to happen to Safeco Field since Safeco Field itself -- Hernandez's home starts will remain can't-miss events this summer. -- Jon Shields, Pro Ball NW

Tampa Bay Rays: Joe Maddon


I know Joe Maddon isn’t a player but they make him wear a uniform, so he is the 2012 Ray I am most excited to watch. From my seat, Joe outshines all the stars in the Rays clubhouse by standing in the background. Joe is a mad scientist when it comes to the lineup card, mixing and matching on a daily basis. I am on the edge of my seat waiting to see the creative ways he will use the 25 men in the Rays’ 2012 clubhouse. -- Marquis Heilig, The Ray Area

Texas Rangers: Yu Darvish


Darvish is arguably the most exciting and most intriguing new face in the majors right now, and he's a Texas Ranger, which makes him a slam-dunk pick for the most exciting player to watch in Arlington this season. The Rangers bet historically huge money on Darvish and the hope that he can emerge as a true ace, but it's never the best idea to set the expectation bar that high, and I know I'll be more than satisfied with a legitimate No. 2-caliber performance. The promise of so much more, though, and the still mysterious aura that surrounds Darvish ... those qualities make Darvish the most exciting player in a Rangers uniform right now. -- Joey Matschulat, Baseball Time in Arlington

Toronto Blue Jays: Brett Lawrie


The Royals’ Mike Moustakas wasn’t the only highly touted third-base prospect to make his debut in 2011. Lawrie, a 22-year-old hitting machine with soft hands and great bat speed, gave Toronto fans a glimpse of their future at the hot corner. Acquired from the Brewers in a December 2010 deal for Shaun Marcum, Lawrie dealt with fractured bones in each of his hands in 2011, but still managed to compile a .293/.373/.580 line in 43 games at the major league level. His defense still needs some work, but it was his first full season at the position. The members of the Blue Jays brass think they have a keeper at the position. -- Diane Firstman, Value Over Replacement Grit

We're back with more divisional position rankings for 2012. You can scream, you can holler, you can protest and call me names. But just because I rated your player lower than you think he deserves doesn't mean I hate your team.

(Here are the NL East and NL West rankings.)

Catcher
1. Alex Avila, Tigers
2. Joe Mauer, Twins
3. Carlos Santana, Indians
4. Salvador Perez, Royals
5. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox

The AL Central might not be baseball's glamor division, but it may have three of the top five catchers in the game if Mauer bounces back from his injury-plagued campaign. Since we're not certain of his health, I'm going to give top billing to Avila, who had the best hitting numbers of any catcher outside of Mike Napoli and plays solid defense. I wouldn't be surprised if Santana explodes; with his power-and-walks combo, all he has to do is raise his average 30 points and he'll be one of the most valuable players in the game. Considering that his average on balls in play was .263, there is a good chance of that happening. Perez hit .331 in 39 games; OK, he won't do that again, but he doesn't turn 22 until May and puts the ball in play. There's no shame in being fifth in this group but that's where I have to place Pierzynski, who keeps rolling along and is now 36th on the all-time list for games caught.

First base
1. Prince Fielder, Tigers
2. Paul Konerko, White Sox
3. Eric Hosmer, Royals
4. Justin Morneau, Twins
5. Matt LaPorta, Indians

In 2009, when Morneau played 135 games, he hit .274 AVG/.363 OBP/.516 SLG. Even if he replicates that line, he may rank only fourth. Konerko has hit a combined .306 with 70 home runs the past two seasons. He's 104 home runs from 500 but turns 36 in March, so he's probably four seasons away; not sure he'll hang on that long, but who knew he'd be this good at this age. If Hosmer improves his walk rate and defense and Konerko declines, Hosmer could climb past him. If it doesn't happen this year, it will happen next. The most similar batter to him at age 21: Eddie Murray.

Second base
1. Jason Kipnis, Indians
2. Gordon Beckham, White Sox
3. Johnny Giavotella, Royals
4. Alexi Casilla, Twins
5. Ramon Santiago, Tigers

Well, this isn't exactly a Robinson Cano/Dustin Pedroia/Ben Zobrist debate, is it? Kipnis' bat is a sure thing, as evidenced by his excellent play after his call-up (.272 average and .507 slugging in 36 games). His glove was once a question mark but now appears solid enough that he looks like a future All-Star to me. Can anybody explain what has happened to Beckham? He's second mostly by default; he's gone downhill since his superb rookie season in 2009 but is only 25, so there's hope that he'll find those skills again. Giavotella has some potential with the bat (.338/.390/.481 at Triple-A), which is more than you can say for Casilla and Santiago.

Third base
1. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
2. Mike Moustakas, Royals
3. Lonnie Chisenhall, Indians
4. Danny Valencia, Twins
5. Brent Morel, White Sox

We'll go with the idea that Cabrera is Detroit's starting third baseman, although I predict he'll end up starting more games at designated hitter. Manager Jim Leyland will end up doing a lot of mixing of his lineups, but for this little exercise we have to choose a starter. Moustakas didn't tear up the league as a rookie and I worry about his ability to hit lefties (.191, homerless in 89 at-bats), but he showed more than fellow rookies Chisenhall and Morel. Valencia doesn't get on base enough and he rated poorly on defense in 2011. I hope he's at least good in the clubhouse. Morel was terrible all season and then exploded for eight of his 10 home runs in September and drew 15 walks after drawing just seven the previous five months. Maybe something clicked.

Shortstop
1. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
2. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
3. Jhonny Peralta, Tigers
4. Alcides Escobar, Royals
5. Jamey Carroll, Twins

Peralta had the best 2011 season, but he's a difficult guy to project. He had an .804 OPS in 2008 but dropped to .691 in 2009. He had a .703 OPS in 2010 and then .823 in 2011. I just don't see a repeat season, at the plate or in the field. Cabrera didn't rate well on the defensive metrics, and after a strong start he wore down in the second half. Ramirez has turned into a nice player, with a good glove and some power, and he even draws a few walks now. Escobar is a true magician with the glove. Carroll is actually a useful player who gets on base (.356 career OBP), but he's pushed as an everyday shortstop and he'll be 38. He'll be issued the honorary Nick Punto locker in the Twins' clubhouse.

Left field
1. Alex Gordon, Royals
2. Alejandro De Aza, White Sox
3. Ben Revere, Twins
4. Michael Brantley/Shelley Duncan, Indians
5. Ryan Raburn/Don Kelly, Tigers

I'm not sure what to do here. After Gordon, I just get a headache. We'll pretend to believe in De Aza after his impressive stint in the majors (171 plate appearances, .329/.400/.920). He's hit in Triple-A for three seasons now, and while he's not going to post a .400 OBP again, he should be adequate. Revere is one of the fastest players in the majors, but he's all speed and defense; he hopes to grow up to be Brett Gardner, which isn't a bad thing, but he'll have to learn to get on base at a better clip. Brantley doesn't have one outstanding skill so he'll have to hit better than .266 to be anything more than a fourth outfielder; Duncan provides some right-handed pop as a platoon guy. The Tigers have Delmon Young, but I'll slot him at DH. That leaves supposed lefty masher Raburn and utility man Kelly to soak up at-bats; both had an OBP below .300 in 2011, although Raburn has hit better in the past.

Center field
1. Austin Jackson, Tigers
2. Denard Span, Twins
3. Grady Sizemore, Indians
4. Lorenzo Cain, Royals
5. Alex Rios, White Sox

I can't rate Sizemore any higher since he's played just 104 games over the past two seasons, and he hasn't had a big year since 2008. Rios was terrible in '09, OK in '10 and worse than terrible in '11. I'm not betting on him.

Right field
1. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians
2. Brennan Boesch, Tigers
3. Jeff Francoeur, Royals
4. Josh Willingham, Twins
5. Dayan Viciedo, White Sox

Choo would like to forget 2011, but there's no reason he shouldn't bounce back and play like he did in 2009 and 2010, when he was one of the 10 best position players in the AL. I don't expect Francoeur to deliver 71 extra-base hits again, but maybe he'll surprise us. Viciedo is apparently nicknamed "The Tank," which makes me wonder how much ground he can cover. He did improve his walk rate last season in the minors and turns 23 in March, so there's still room for more growth.

Designated hitter
1. Billy Butler, Royals
2. Travis Hafner, Indians
3. Ryan Doumit, Twins
4. Delmon Young, Tigers
5. Adam Dunn, White Sox

Has there been a bigger prospect disappointment than Young in the past decade? I mean, yes, there were complete busts like Brandon Wood and Andy Marte, but those guys had obvious holes in their games, while Young was viewed as a sure thing, a consensus No. 1 overall prospect. But his bat has never lived up to its billing. Other than one decent year in Minnesota, he has low OBPs and he clearly lacked range in the outfield. His career WAR on Baseball-Reference is minus-0.2 (1.6 on FanGraphs), meaning he's been worse than replacement level. He's just not that good, Tigers fans.

No. 1 starter
1. Justin Verlander, Tigers
2. John Danks, White Sox
3. Justin Masterson, Indians
4. Luke Hochevar, Royals
5. Carl Pavano, Twins

Masterson was better than Danks in 2011, and I do believe his improvement was real. He absolutely crushes right-handers -- they slugged an anemic .259 off him. Danks had two bad months but has the longer track record of success. Even in his "off year" he had a higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate than Masterson. If you want to argue about Hochevar versus Pavano, be my guest.

No. 2 starter
1. Doug Fister, Tigers
2. Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians
3. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
4. Francisco Liriano, Twins
5. Jonathan Sanchez, Royals

Yes, sign me up for the Doug Fister bandwagon club. Jimenez's fastball velocity was down a couple miles per hour last season but the positives are that his strikeout and walk rates were identical to 2010; he'll be better. Floyd isn't flashy but he's now made 30-plus starts four years in a row, and he'll become a very rich man when he becomes a free agent after this season. Sanchez won't have the luxury of pitching in San Francisco (and to eight-man NL lineups).

No. 3 starter
1. Max Scherzer, Tigers
2. Scott Baker, Twins
3. Philip Humber, White Sox
4. Bruce Chen, Royals
5. Josh Tomlin, Indians

I could be underrating Baker, who was excellent last season, but only once in his career has he made 30 starts in a season. Tomlin's fans will disagree with this ranking, but he's a finesse guy who relies on the best control in baseball (21 walks in 26 starts). He's the kind of guy you root for, but the league seemed to figure him out as the season progressed.

No. 4 starter
1. Felipe Paulino, Royals
2. Rick Porcello, Tigers
3. Jake Peavy, White Sox
4. Derek Lowe, Indians
5. Nick Blackburn, Twins

Scouts still love Porcello's arm and I know he's just 23, but he's made 89 big league starts and shown no signs of getting better. His WHIP has increased each season and his strikeout rate remains one of the lowest in baseball. Paulino has an electric arm -- he averaged 95 mph on his fastball -- and is getting better. How could the Rockies give up on him after just 14 innings? How could the Astros trade him for Clint Barmes? Anyway, kudos to the Royals for buying low on the guy who may turn into their best starter. Peavy can't stay healthy. Lowe has led his league in starts three out of the past four seasons, but I'm not sure that's a good thing anymore. Blackburn is a poor man's Lowe, and I don't mean that in a good way.

No. 5 starter
1. Chris Sale, White Sox
2. Jacob Turner, Tigers
3. Aaron Crow/Danny Duffy, Royals
4. Fausto Carmona/David Huff/Jeanmar Gomez, Indians
5. Brian Duensing/Jason Marquis, Twins

Welcome to the AL Central crapshoot. Turner and Sale have the most upside, but one is a rookie and the other is converting from relief. Crow will also be given a shot at the rotation, but his difficulties against left-handed batters (.311 average allowed) don't bode well for that transition. Even if the artist formerly known as Carmona gets a visa, what do you have? A guy with a 5.01 ERA over the past four seasons. Duensing is another typical Twins pitcher, which means he at least throws strikes. His first full season in the rotation didn't go well, so of course the Twins brought in Marquis, yet another guy who doesn't strike anybody out.

Closer
1. Jose Valverde, Tigers
2. Joakim Soria, Royals
3. Matt Thornton, White Sox
4. Chris Perez, Indians
5. Matt Capps, Twins

Four good relievers plus Matt Capps. I do admit I'm a little perplexed by Perez, however. In 2009, he struck out 10.7 batters per nine innings. In 2010, that figure fell to 8.7 but he posted a pretty 1.71 ERA. In 2011, it was all the way down to 5.9, but without much improvement in his control. Perez blew only four saves but he did lose seven games. He survived thanks to a low .240 average on balls in play. He's an extreme fly-ball pitcher but didn't serve up many home runs. Bottom line: I'd be nervous.

Bullpen
1. Indians -- Vinnie Pestano, Rafael Perez, Tony Sipp, Joe Smith, Nick Hagadone
2. Royals -- Jonathan Broxton, Greg Holland, Louis Coleman, Tim Collins, Jose Mijares
3. Tigers -- Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel, Phil Coke, Daniel Schlereth, Al Alburquerque
4. White Sox -- Jesse Crain, Jason Frasor, Will Ohman, Addison Reed, Dylan Axelrod
5. Twins -- Glen Perkins, Alex Burnett, Anthony Swarzak, Kyle Waldrop, Lester Oliveros

If you're starting to think I'm not high on the Twins for this season, you would be correct.

Intangibles
1. Royals
2. Indians
3. Tigers
4. White Sox
5. Twins

I like the youthful exuberance of the Royals, plus the likelihood of improvement from the young players and the possibility of some midseason reinforcements from the minors. The depth of the bullpen will help bolster a shaky rotation, and this just feels like an organization that is finally starting to believe in itself. The Indians are riding last year's positive results and enter the season knowing they might get better production from Choo and Sizemore and full seasons from Kipnis and Chisenhall. I'm not knocking the Tigers here, but they do lack depth in the pitching staff and the pressure is on them.

The final tally
1. Tigers, 65 points
2. Royals, 55 points
3. Indians, 54 points
4. White Sox, 46 points
5. Twins, 35 points

No surprise here: The Tigers will be heavy favorites to win the division with a lineup that should score a ton of runs. I don't think it's a lock that they'll win -- Verlander, Avila, Peralta and Valverde will all be hard-pressed to repeat their 2011 campaigns, for example. But the Royals and Indians appear to have too many questions in the rotations, the White Sox have serious lineup issues, and the Twins have a beautiful ballpark to play their games in.

The American League Central may have a reputation as baseball's skinflint division, but such is not the case: The White Sox, Twins and Tigers each had payrolls over $100 million in 2011 and ranked in the top 10 of highest-salaried ballclubs.

The problem was that two of those three teams didn't get much for their money. Considering the issues in Chicago and Minnesota, and the youth and unwillingness to spend big in Cleveland and Kansas City, Detroit will enter 2012 as the heavy favorite to win the division -- no matter what happens in the offseason. But even the Tigers are far from a sure thing and if the Indians can get good health from Shin-Soo Choo and Grady Sizemore in 2012, plus strong seasons from youngsters Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall, their offense could be dramatically improved.

But that's getting ahead of ourselves. Here's a quick look at some action plans and items of interest for the five teams.

Detroit Tigers

1. Third base (Brandon Inge)

With Inge plummeting to a .197 average, Detroit's third-base production was among the worst in the majors. The team has already been linked to free agent Aramis Ramirez and trade discussions with Angels on Maicer Izturis. Both would be big upgrades over Inge, who still has one year remaining on his contract. The dark horse possibility: With Carlos Guillen ($13 million) and Magglio Ordonez ($10 million) off the books, the Tigers pursue Jose Reyes to fill their leadoff void, moving Jhonny Peralta to third base.

Likely solution: As much I love the Reyes idea, Ramirez to Detroit seems like a logical fit. The negatives are Ramirez's lack of range and Detroit's need for a little more athleticism in the lineup.



2. Middle relief

By the postseason, Jim Leyland was down to two relievers he trusted: Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit. Al Alburquerque had a strong rookie season out of nowhere and Phil Coke and Daniel Schlereth provide rare power lefty arms, but Albuquerque and Schlereth still have trouble throwing strikes. The Tigers could go after a low-cost veteran like LaTroy Hawkins, Mike Gonzalez or Darren Oliver, or maybe make a trade pitch for White Sox lefty Matt Thornton, although it seems unlikely Chicago would trade Thornton to a division rival.

Likely solution: A veteran righty-hander, with the Tigers counting on improvement from Coke and Schlereth.

3. A left-handed bat.

The Tigers missed Brennan Boesch's stick in the playoffs, as Victor Martinez and the hobbled Alex Avila were the only threats from the left side (granted, Don Kelly hit a big home run). Boesch's return will help, but Detroit could use a lefty bat to help balance out the lineup.

Likely solution: Andy Dirks may given another shot at that third/fourth outfielder job after hitting .251/.296/.406 as a rookie. But what about Rockies left fielder Seth Smith, who is on the trade block? His career .518 slugging percentage against righties has been bolstered a bit by Coors Field, but he's a solid hitter who could platoon with Ryan Raburn in left, or allow Raburn to play some at second base.

Cleveland Indians

1. Find a left fielder who can hit.

Michael Brantley is a decent asset -- but as a center fielder. The plan to use Brantley as an everyday left fielder was never a great one to begin with, as he's never going to pop many balls over the fence. Brantley, Austin Kearns, Shelley Duncan and Travis Buck all started at least 20 games in left; Jared Head started six games there. As a group, Cleveland's left fielders hit a miserable .233 with seven home runs; only Baltimore and Minnesota received a lower OPS from their left fielders.

Likely solution: Signing Grady Sizemore doesn't necessarily push Brantley back to a starting role in left field. He's best used as a fourth outfielder and Sizemore insurance. Michael Cuddyer may end up getting priced out of Cleveland's range, so how former Twins teammate Jason Kubel? He can play left and step in as designated hitter when Travis Hafner suffers his inevitable breakdown.

2. Find at least one more starter.

Right now, the Indians can only count on Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez for their rotation. Carlos Carrasco is out for the season following Tommy John surgery, Fausto Carmona was terrible and even Josh Tomlin is a question mark after the league caught up to him in the second half (5.26 ERA).

Likely solution: Jeanmar Gomez has been roughed up in two stints in the majors (146 hits in 116 innings), but his Triple-A numbers were solid, if unspectacular. He'll be given another chance in spring training to battle David Huff for a rotation spot.

3. If not Matt LaPorta, who plays first base?

The big prospect acquired in the CC Sabathia deal, LaPorta just hasn't hit as expected, posting a .299 on-base percentage in 2011. The Indians seem ready to punt on LaPorta, who turns 27 in January so isn't even that young. Carlos Santana ended up playing a lot of first base down the stretch, but let's hope he's kept behind the plate, where his hitting value would be maximized.

Likely solution: If free agent Carlos Pena lowers his price, he's a possibility, and the Indians reportedly talked with Houston about Brett Wallace. I'm not sure Wallace is much of an upgrade over LaPorta, but at least he's younger. Casey Kotchman could fit nicely here as lower-cost alternative after posting a .378 OBP with Tampa. And hey, he's only two years older than LaPorta.

Chicago White Sox

1. What do you do with Adam Dunn and Alex Rios?

Dunn hit .159 with a .569 OPS. Rios hit .227 with a .613 OPS. Dunn was the least-valuable position player in baseball, according to Baseball-Reference.com, while Rios was seventh-worst. They made $24 million in 2011 and will make a combined $26 million in 2012. Both are signed through 2014.

Likely solution: General manager Kenny Williams will be busy during the winter meetings, perhaps shopping around guys like Gavin Floyd, John Danks and Matt Thornton, looking for some sort of backup plan to these two pieces of junk. The 40-man roster currently includes Alejandro De Aza, who probably deserves a chance to play somewhere after a nice run (if over his head) last season. Let's put it this way: he can produce an OPS higher than .613.

2. Third base (Brent Morel)

After struggling all season, hitting .250 with just two home runs and seven walks in 328 at-bats through August, Morel suddenly changed his approach in September, got more patient and swung for the fences. He hit just .224 the final month, but with eight home runs and 15 walks. Was it a legitimate improvement, or merely feasting off September tired arms and rookie call-ups?

Likely solution: Morel's hot September earns him another shot.

3. The new manager

This isn't so much an action plan, as a big question mark. Robin Ventura has no previous managerial experience, but the good sign for the White Sox is that respected pitching coach Don Cooper is still around to handle the pitching staff.

Likely solution: If Dunn and Rios stink it up again, it won't matter how well Ventura transitions into the job -- he'll be doomed.

Kansas City Royals

1. Fix the rotation

The Royals had a 4.82 ERA from their starters; only Baltimore was worse in the American League.

Likely solution: The Royals already made a move here, trading Melky Cabrera to the Giants for Jonathan Sanchez. The club also re-signed Bruce Chen. With the signing of Jonathan Broxton, and the emergence of rookie relievers Greg Holland, Louis Coleman and Tim Collins in 2011, fellow 2011 rookie Aaron Crow will be given a shot at the rotation. I have my doubts it will work: Crow walked 31 in 62 innings out of the bullpen and left-handed hitters tagged him for a .311 average and .538 slugging percentage. There's a reason he struggled in the minors as a starter in 2010 (5.73 ERA). He has a great arm, but won't be able to rely on his fastball/slider combo as a starter.

2. Second base (Chris Getz)

Royals second basemen posted a .301 OBP and .636 OPS (26th in the majors) in 2011.

Likely solution: Rookie Johnny Giavotella played the final two months there and hit .247 with a .649 OPS. He'll head into spring training as the favorite to win the job. He hit .338/.390/.481 at Triple-A, so the batting potential is there: Bill James projects him to hit .295/.342/.419.

3. Center field (empty -- Cabrera traded)

The Royals were smart to deal Cabrera after his career season.

Likely solution: Lorenzo Cain, acquired from Milwaukee in the Zack Greinke trade, will finally get a chance to play after spending 2011 in Triple-A. Cain is old for a guy still considered a prospect -- he turns 26 in April -- so he should be a polished product by now. He showed some power for the first time in his career, hitting 16 home runs for Omaha while batting .312. He doesn't walk much, so won't be a star, but should come closing to matching Cabrera's 2011 production.

Minnesota Twins

1. The M & M boys

After 2011's train wreck -- the club's first 90-loss season since 2000 (and at 99 losses, the most the 1982 Twins lost 102) -- it seems pretty clear this team will be dead in the water again unless Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau get healthy and regain their All-Star status. But they also can't assume these guys are going to play 140-plus games.

Likely solution: Obviously, the Twins need a better backup plan for Mauer than giving .167-hitting Drew Butera 250 plate appearances. They already accomplished with the smart signing of Ryan Doumit to a one-year deal for $3 million. Doumit can catch or play right field, but his bat is good enough to warrant a regular place in the lineup even when he's not behind the plate. Of course, he's also been injury-prone throughout his career. Prospect Chris Parmalee, who impressed in a September call-up, gives the team a potentially decent backup option for Morneau as well.

2. Right field: Empty (Michael Cuddyer, free agent)

For all the attention Cuddyer is getting, let's remember that he's really just a complementary bat on a good team. Unfortunately, considering some of the other outfielders the Twins tried last season -- Rene Tosoni, Jason Repko, Trevor Plouffe -- you realize they had nobody in the upper levels of the system.

Likely solution: Doumit may factor into their plans here, but regardless, the Twins need another bat to play a corner or DH. Smith is a trade option and free agent Josh Willingham is another possibility.

3. Closer: Empty (Matt Capps and Joe Nathan, free agents)

Nathan signed with Texas while GM Terry Ryan recently told the St. Paul Pioneer Press that it's likely Capps could return.

Likely solution: Capps was terrible last year, allowing 10 home runs in 65.2 innings while striking out just 4.7 hitters per nine innings. Two years ago, he had a 5.80 ERA. I can't fathom why any team would want to make Capps its closer. Sadly, however, the rest of the Minnesota bullpen is nearly as uninspiring (as is the rotation, but I don't have room to get to them here), but Capps throws strikes and there's nothing the Twins love more than a pitcher who throws strikes (velocity are ability to miss bats don't seem to be a factor). There's no reason for this team to spend big money on one of the remaining free-agent closers, so it probably will be Capps or lefty Glen Perkins.

Baseball lesson No. 3,247: The trade deadline rarely is the cure for a team’s ailments.

Oh, sure, sometimes you find the right Band-Aid.

And sometimes you trade for Carlos Beltran or Ubaldo Jimenez and the cut turns into a bleeding wound.

The Giants entered Wednesday six games behind the Diamondbacks. While the offense “burst” out with four runs and 12 hits to avoid being swept by the Cubs, Beltran went 0-for-3 with a walk, dropping his numbers with the Giants to .260 with one home run in 77 at-bats and an on-base percentage less than .300.

Meanwhile, Jimenez had one of his better starts since joining the Indians, allowing three runs in six innings. But in six starts with Cleveland, he has been homer-prone (six home runs, just four fewer than he allowed all of 2010) and has allowed 25 runs for a 5.56 ERA.

Both trades drew their share of criticism at the time: namely, that Zack Wheeler was too much of a price for the Giants to pay for a two-month rental, and that the Indians were unlikely to win the American League Central, even if Jimenez delivered down the stretch.

Truth is, the Giants’ woes began long before the Beltran trade. He’s not the only reason the team has hit .231 in August while averaging fewer than three runs per game. As the team saw its division lead slip away this month, GM Brian Sabean finally found a couple of fall guys Wednesday when veterans Miguel Tejada and Aaron Rowand were designated for assignment.

"We're at a spot in the season where we have to do some damage control with the roster. A couple things played into it. In both cases, there was diminished playing time, diminished roles,” Sabean said.

A couple things? Like the fact that Tejada and Rowand were predictably awful? What took so long for Sabean to realize damage control was needed?

Here’s what I wrote about Tejada on Opening Day, after he made a critical error: “He’s 36 now, his bat is slowing and many people don’t think he has the range to play shortstop anymore. The Giants took a chance, signing him to replace the departed Juan Uribe. Reports from spring training weren’t good. ... Is he too old? His legs might not have Chipper’s scars, but they’re still the legs of somebody who has played more than 2,000 major league games, clocking in 150-plus games year after year.”

On April 28, I wrote, “Considering Tejada isn’t hitting either, how long will the Giants stick with him?” On May 25, I wrote, “What can I say that everybody else hasn’t already said? With Pablo Sandoval back in maybe two weeks, I’m guessing Tejada’s Giants career will end in two weeks.”

It only took just more than three months from that point for Sabean to finally cut loose Tejada, despite a .239/.270/.326 (BA/OBP/SLG) batting line that essentially left him below replacement level.

Rowand was signed to a five-year, $60 million contract after a career-best 2007 season with the Phillies. The signing was roundly criticized at the time, and it got more disastrous with each season. In 2008, he posted a .749 OPS, below the league average hitter. In 2009, he posted a .738 OPS, barely acceptable for a starting outfielder. In 2010, he posted a .281 on-base percentage and .659 OPS, but the Giants won the World Series anyway. With Rowand making $13.6 million in 2011, the club brought him back, which is like your friends who keep acting surprised when their dog pees on the carpet. Rowand’s OBP this season: .274.

Yes, the Giants got ravaged by injuries. I don’t think Sabean and Bruce Bochy entered the season believing they’d give 351 plate appearances to Aaron Rowand. But here’s how you make sure that doesn’t happen: Don’t have Aaron Rowand on your roster.

As for Jimenez, I had hopes he’d pitch better. He had been the only starter in Rockies history to have consistent success in Coors Field but had struggled there in 2011 with a 5.55 ERA. Maybe a change of scenery would be a good thing. He’s had some positive results, like a 38/11 SO/BB ratio in 34 innings, and his season strikeout total of 156 in 157 innings is a good sign that his stuff is still fooling major league hitters, but the bottom line is he hasn’t kept enough runs off the scoreboard.

Hey, some of this is second guessing, I admit. It’s hard to fault either team for making the moves it did. The Indians were 1.5 games out of first place when they acquired Jimenez on July 30 for a package of prospects that included pitchers Alex White and Drew Pomeranz, Cleveland’s No. 1 picks in 2009 and 2010. The Giants were actually four games up on the Diamondbacks when they acquired Beltran on July 28.

So it’s another lesson for all of us: The trade deadline is fun.

But its impact often irrelevant.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Reports surfaced that the Colorado Rockies made a waiver claim on Houston Astros left-hander Wandy Rodriguez, meaning the teams have until 1 p.m. ET Thursday to work out a trade (or the Astros can pull him back off waivers and keep him).

So what are the Rockies thinking? Do they think they have a chance to win the NL West, even though they're 8.5 games behind first-place Arizona? Rodriguez is a solid, consistent pitcher who has posted an ERA between 3.02 and 3.60 each of the past four seasons, pitching mostly on bad or mediocre clubs in Houston. While he's not overpowering with his 88-90 mph fastball, his strikeout rate has been 8.2 per nine innings over those four seasons, although it's dipped slightly this season to 7.7. He mixes speeds with a curveball and changeup and when he's on, he's very tough -- he's had seven starts this season where he hasn't allowed a run.

Rodriguez is making $7.5 million this season, $10.5 in 2012 and $13.5 in 2013, with a $13 million club option for 2014 that becomes a player option if he's traded. Rodriguez is 32, so there is a little risk with the age, but he hasn't spent much time on the DL in his career. He isn't a workhorse, as he's topped 200 just innings just once. The biggest concern is that Rodriguez has pitched much better at home than on the road throughout his career, with a 3.43 ERA at home and 4.78 on the road. Over the past five seasons, his home ERAs have been 3.20, 2.82, 2.08, 2.99 and 2.94. His road ERAs have been 3.39, 4.41, 4.05, 4.34 and 6.37. Houston has a reputation as a hitter's park, but it's actually played fairly neutral, so maybe Rodriguez just likes the mound there or he pitches to the deep part of the ballpark. He allows a few more homers on the road but also a much higher batting average. I think it's enough of a red flag to worry about, especially in a park like Coors Field.

While the Rockies are known for their late-season surges -- 18-9 in September of 2009 and 20-8 in September of 2007, with the famous 14 wins in their 15 games -- I don't see them making up the ground on Arizona or San Francisco, despite the lackluster play of those two teams. But Rodriguez is an underrated pitcher, and having traded Ubaldo Jimenez, maybe the Rockies view this as an opportunity to add a good veteran pitcher with a market-rate contract without giving up a frontline prospect. (Of course, it should be noted that Jimenez's contract was much more team friendly than Rodriguez's.)

Would you rather have Jimenez through 2014 for about $18 million total, or Rodriguez (for $37 million), Drew Pomeranz and Alex White? If the Rockies can work out a deal with the Astros, they're banking on the latter. I'm inclined to agree. They would get a mid-rotation anchor for three seasons ... and the possibility of another miracle playoff run this year.

Here's my weekly look ahead, because I didn't get to it in Sunday night's Yankees-Red Sox diary.

SERIES OF THE WEEK

Milwaukee at St. Louis, Tuesday through Thursday

Tuesday: Shaun Marcum (10-3, 3.58 ERA) vs. Edwin Jackson (8-8, 4.11)
Wednesday: Randy Wolf (8-8, 3.61) vs. Kyle Lohse (9-7, 3.45)
Thursday: Yovani Gallardo (13-7, 3.56) vs. Jake Westbrook (9-5, 4.83)

Dayn Perry documents the Brewers' road woes in an ESPN Insider story, although they are coming off a three-game sweep in Houston. OK, that doesn't tell us anything. They are 8-6 in their past 14 road games, though.

Jackson will make his third start for the Cardinals. His outing last week against the Brewers was a disaster, as he allowed 14 hits, 10 runs and four home runs in seven innings. Lohse was 7-2 with a 2.13 ERA through May but has won just two of 11 starts since. He has pitched more than six innings just twice and has posted a 5.25 ERA in 60 innings with just 25 strikeouts in that span. Look for another quick hook on Wednesday.

For the Brewers, Gallardo has lowered his ERA from 4.08 to 3.56 in his past four starts, but two of those came against Houston and one against San Francisco. Ryan Braun has been more aggressive at the plate lately, hitting .373 in his past 16 games with eight doubles and four home runs but only two walks. Let's see whether the Cardinals attack him and whether he'll chase pitches out of the strike zone.

PITCHING MATCHUP OF THE WEEK

Wednesday: Rick Porcello vs. Ubaldo Jimenez, Detroit at Cleveland (Wednesday)

It's not a battle of Cy Young contenders but an interesting showdown in the AL Central. The Indians are four games back of the Tigers and could use a sweep of their three-game series in Cleveland. Unfortunately, they'll face Justin Verlander on Thursday, putting pressure on Jimenez and Justin Masterson to pitch well. Porcello has been a little better of late, as he's allowed three runs or fewer in six straight starts, although they've been more of the quality start-variety (six innings, three runs) and include several starts against weak offenses -- two against Kansas City and one each against Oakland, San Francisco, Minnesota and the Angels. Jimenez allowed five runs in five innings in his first start for Cleveland against the Rangers.

THREE SWINGS

1. Tim Lincecum stopped the Phillies' nine-game win streak on Sunday, but what a roll the Phillies have been on. With a 74-40 record, they're on pace for 105 wins, and ESPN Stats & Info reports that AccuScore's simulation of 10,000 seasons gives the Phillies a 22 percent chance of winning 108 games. Why is that significant? Only two NL teams have won 108 games since 1910 -- the legendary 1975 Cincinnati Reds and almost-as-legendary 1986 New York Mets, both of whom won 108. With a 3.06 team ERA, the Phillies have a shot to become the first team since the 1989 Dodgers to finish under 3.00. We'll wait a few weeks before comparing the Phillies to other great clubs, but it's worth noting that the '86 Mets finished first in the NL in runs and second in runs allowed; the '75 Reds were first in runs and third in runs allowed. The Phillies are first in runs allowed but seventh in runs scored.

2. It's great to see Stephen Strasburg back in action in a rehab start in Class A. How about this 2013 lineup for the Nationals?

2B Anthony Rendon
RF Jayson Werth
3B Ryan Zimmerman
1B Prince Fielder
LF Mike Morse
CF Bryce Harper
SS Danny Espinosa
C Wilson Ramos

Rotation: Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, John Lannan, Brad Peacock (124 IP, 81 H, 38 BB, 152 SO in Double-A/Triple-A this year), and Veteran Free Agent To Be Named.

OK, I stretched all the position players defensively, but Espinosa should be able to handle shortstop without a hitch (he played there in the minors), and Harper has the speed and tools to handle center field. Prince Fielder? Nats fans can dream, right?

3. Since 1990, only 21 starting pitchers have allowed an on-base percentage of .260 or less. But four pitchers are doing it this season: Justin Verlander (.233), Jered Weaver (.247), Cole Hamels (.253) and Dan Haren (.255). Verlander's total would be the third-best since '90, trailing only Pedro Martinez in 2000 (.213) and Greg Maddux in 1995 (.224). Martinez owns five of the 21 seasons on the list, Maddux four. Johan Santana with three and Curt Schilling with two also appear multiple times.

RANT OF THE WEEK

I'm stealing this great note from our Stats & Information department, which compares Asdrubal Cabrera to Jhonny Peralta:

Cabrera: .289, .832 OPS, plus+1 defensive runs saved, 3.9 WAR (FanGraphs)
Peralta: .314, .873 OPS, minus-10 defensive runs saved, 3.8 WAR (FanGraphs)

Peralta has received about zero media attention for his great year, especially in comparison to Cabrera. Although Cabrera routinely shows up on Web Gems highlights, his overall defense is more league-average than spectacular. Peralta's stick has been slightly more valuable, however, with a .314/.357/.516 line compared to Cabrera's .289/.344/.488. The Tigers are in first place, and Verlander and Miguel Cabrera aren't the only reasons why.

Oh, and the best shortstop in the American League might actually be Yunel Escobar.

The past week has seen Rockies and Indians fans equally lamenting and lauding the trade that brought right-handed pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez to Cleveland in exchange for four minor league players: pitchers Drew Pomeranz, Alex White and Joe Gardner and first baseman Matt McBride. Rockies fans were incredulous that their ace was gone so soon after earning the label. Indians fans thought the front office had traded away the farm and the future. It was this season’s biggest trade. And it gave everybody in Cleveland and Denver something to gripe about.

Jimenez has been surrounded by question marks and speculation this season. After he went 19-8 with a 2.88 ERA in 2010 and was the National League’s starting pitcher in the All-Star Game, he was easy to be excited about, routinely throwing in the upper 90s. This season, he came to the Tribe with a 6-9 record and a 4.46 ERA, and a fastball that strains to hit 95 mph on the speed gun. What happened to his velocity? Was 2010 a fluke? In anticipation of getting some sort of answer to those questions, Jimenez’s first American League start on Friday night ranked somewhere between the second coming and a new Harry Potter title on the scale of anticipation.

Taking the mound against the Texas Rangers, Jimenez’s first pitch was a 91-mph called strike, and everyone in Cleveland breathed a sigh of relief. Then he threw two balls and gave up a double to Ian Kinsler, and perhaps just as soon everyone in Denver could say, “Whew, guess we made the right choice.” The thing is, maybe fans in both cities are right. The question of whether or not this was a good trade for either team was never going to be answered on this Friday, and it won’t be answered for a couple of years.

Indians fans have waited for decades for the Next Big Thing to bring them to the World Series, or at least all the way back to a full season of .500 ball. Over the years, the team developed scads of great young players, only to trade them away for a handful of potentially magic beans when they were close to free agency or to use them as bait for a “rebuilding” year. So Indians fans can empathize with the Rockies fans who questioned this trade. White and Pomeranz were supposed to be keys in Cleveland’s starting rotation in a couple of years; now they’re Denver’s Next Big Thing. It’s delightful to see Jimenez in an Indians uniform, make no doubt about that. But the idea of a savior in cleats who will change an entire team’s fortunes in one day is a myth.

On the other hand, baseball is built on a series of immediate answers: ball or strike, fair or foul, safe or out, win or loss. That’s an oddly binary basis for a game that’s played without a clock. Trades aren’t wired that way. Despite a desire for immediate results and a world that increasingly provides just that, moving human beings around in new configurations rarely provides instant gratification. Normally, it can’t.

Jimenez’s first inning as an Indian looked like it could go either way. Kinsler stole third, then scored on a wild pitch. As the game went on, however, Jimenez calmed down, giving up four runs on seven hits and striking out seven in five innings. The fourth and fifth innings gave Cleveland hints of the pitcher the Indians hoped they were getting, as the Rangers went down in order on four strikeouts and a couple of ground outs. But then he started the sixth inning by giving up a solo shot to Mike Napoli, then walking Mitch Moreland before being pulled.

What questions were answered? Jimenez didn’t immediately tear up the joint, but the Rangers are a good team. He didn’t quite answer the question of where his velocity went, throwing his fastball primarily in the low to mid-90s. He hit 97 on at least one four-seamer and 95 and 96 on several others. Does that mean the Indians have the Jimenez of 2010? We won’t find that out after his next start, or the one after that.

In the end, the Indians lost in 11 innings when another wild pitch -- this time by Rafael Perez -- allowed Elvis Andrus to move into scoring position. Perez shouldn’t be judged on one wild pitch, but then again, Jimenez’s future value to the Indians shouldn’t be judged on one game.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Susan Petrone writes about the Cleveland Indians for the SweetSpot network at It's Pronounced 'Lajaway'. If you follow her on Twitter, she might say something that will amuse you.