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Both young and old players were on our minds as Keith Law and I gathered for Thursday’s Baseball Today podcast!

1. Brett Lawrie gets four games for his outburst and helmet throw, but is it enough? And what should happen to the umpire? Plus, are the Blue Jays collecting young players with reputations like Lawrie?

2. From young to old, Jamie Moyer continues to set marks each time he pitches, but isn’t that getting, ahem, a bit old? Plus, is WAR more valuable than wins?

3. The Angels switch hitting coaches, and of course Albert Pujols and Vernon Wells hit home runs. Do hitting coaches have much effect?

4. Seattle Mariners catcher Jesus Montero isn’t Gold Glove-caliber behind the plate, but what does KLaw think of his overall future, both offensively and defensively?

5. Thursday features a full slate of games, including the major league ERA leader on the mound, but will he continue his surprising success?

So download and listen to Thursday’s fun Baseball Today podcast and get ready for Friday’s show!

OK, let's be brutally honest here about Jon Lester's complete game 6-1 victory on Monday night: It came against the Seattle Mariners. A lot of pitchers look pretty good against Seattle.

Nonetheless, it was Boston's first nine-inning complete game of the season and first since Josh Beckett threw a shutout last June. In fact, Beckett's shutout was Boston's only nine-inning complete game in 2011.

So it was a good sign that Lester went the distance (he did pitch eight innings in a 3-1 loss to Toronto back in his second start). For a guy who has had difficulty keeping his pitch counts down, he threw 119 pitches. He didn't walk anybody, although he threw first-pitch strikes to just 15 of 34 hitters. He struck out six, which at least was an improvement over his past two starts when he put away just five batters in 11 innings. I don't think we suddenly say the Jon Lester of 2008 through August 2011 is back, but it's a small step forward.

Of course, the Red Sox need a big step forward. Remember the Lester mentioned as a leading Cy Young candidate heading into last season? They need that guy back, if he ever existed in the first place. Lester's career high in innings came back in 2008, his first full season in the majors, when he pitched 210.1 innings. Last season, that total dipped to 191.2. Staff aces need to go deep into games. Imagine what an extra 30 or 40 innings would do in saving innings for the bullpen.

The Red Sox, of course, began the day in last place in the American League East. The Angels and Phillies also began the day in last place in their divisions. All three teams are under .500 and looking for small positives. Lester throws well against the Mariners? Hey, that's a positive. Joe Blanton beats the Astros? That's a positive. Small steps.

It has me wondering: Which of these teams -- all World Series contenders back in March -- is the best bet to take the big steps and reach the postseason? Let's backtrack a bit first.

Here were the odds to win the World Series for the three teams at the start of the season, from a certain gambling website:

Red Sox: 10-1
Angels: 7-1
Phillies: 6-1

And the current odds:

Red Sox: 14-1
Angels: 12-1
Phillies: 10-1

I'm actually surprised those odds haven't fallen a bit more, but it's a reminder that we're not even at the quarter pole yet.

Here were the preseason odds to make the playoffs that ran on ESPN Insider, via Dan Szymborski's ZiPS system:

Red Sox: 61.1 percent
Angels: 68.1 percent
Phillies: 62.2 percent

ESPN's panel of baseball personnel was even more optimistic about the Angels and Phillies. Here were the playoff percentages from the 50-person voting panel back on Opening Day:

Red Sox: 32 percent
Angels: 92 percent
Phillies: 86 percent

Not only were the Angels an overwhelming pick to the make the playoffs, 18 of the 50 voters picked them to win the World Series. Interesting that while Dan's numbers-based projected rated the three teams' playoff odds pretty similarly, the Red Sox were viewed in much less regard by the human prognosticators.

And now, as each team sits under .500? The current playoff odds via Coolstandings.com that run on ESPN.com:

Red Sox: 29.8 percent
Angels: 17.8 percent
Phillies: 31.5 percent

Clay Davenport also calculates projected playoffs odds. His system still likes the Red Sox in particular (percentages entering Monday's games):

Red Sox: 65.9 percent
Angels: 20.8 percent
Phillies: 51.6 percent

Clay projects Boston winning 88 games. Maybe his system views Lester as a Cy Young contender.

Now, this is where I pick which of these three teams will make the playoffs. Of course, all three could make it; not a big surprise if that happens. But if I had to pick one team, it's the Phillies. "Baseball Today" podcast host/KaraBlog author/SweetSpot contributor Eric Karabell says I can't do this; he says I've been bagging on the Phillies too much. He says I have to pick the Angels. I think Karabell is misremembering a few things. After all, I did have the Phillies to win the division and was one of just four of those ESPN folks to have the Angels missing the playoffs.

Look, the Red Sox can pound the old leather. My favorite stat: They have 100 doubles, 24 more than the Royals and at least 40 more than half the teams in baseball. The Angels have the advantage of playing the Mariners and A's 36 times this year, still have that great-on-paper rotation, and you know Albert Pujols will go on a tear at some point (although maybe we don't know that).

But I still see too many question marks on those teams. I need to see Lester and Beckett pitch several good games in a row. I need Vernon Wells and Erick Aybar and a few others hitting for the Angels. So here are five quick reasons I'm voting for the Phillies.

1. National League parity.

The Phillies, Brewers and Diamondbacks each won at least 94 games last season, but there's a high degree of possibility that no team will win that many in 2012. Heck, no team may win 90. This suggests the two wild cards may only have to win 85 or 86 games or so. Considering the mediocrity we've seen in the NL Central and NL West divisions outside the Cardinals and Dodgers, it seems like a good bet that two wild cards will come out of the NL East.

2. The Phillies' offense is bad ... but so is much pretty much every other team's offense in the NL.

The Phillies rank ninth in the NL in runs scored. They ranked seventh a year ago. Yes, Carlos Ruiz and Juan Pierre are leading the attack right now. The point isn't so much that this is suddenly going to turn into an offensive juggernaut once Ryan Howard and Chase Utley return and once Jimmy Rollins, Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino start hitting better, but merely to suggest that the Phillies' offense isn't a huge albatross when you compare it across the league.

3. They have Jonathan Papelbon.

OK, Charlie Manuel hasn't exactly done a good job of using him in high-leverage situations, but in a season where closers are falling prey to injuries and blown saves everywhere you look, Papelbon will still prove a small advantage over 162 games.

4. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels.

I still wouldn't trade them for another trio in baseball.

5. Blanton and Vance Worley.

Blanton lowered his ERA to 2.96 with seven strong innings against Houston on Monday. He has a 35/7 strikeout/walk ratio and has allowed just two home runs in 48.2 innings. Worley is once again proving skeptics wrong, with a 3.07 ERA and 45/15 strikeout/walk ratio in 44 innings. The rotation is five-deep and that depth will slowly show up over 162 games.

What do you think? If you haven't, vote in the poll at the top of the page.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

First base: Matt the bat. Yes, that's right, the Baltimore Orioles are back in first place and Matt Wieters is a big reason why. The Orioles scored once in the eighth against the White Sox (Wieters homered), twice in the ninth (Nolan Reimold homered after he could have been rung up on strikes and then Adam Jones also homered off Hector Santiago) and then six times in the 10th (Wieters with the final blow, a grand slam off Zach Stewart, Baltimore's first extra-inning grand slam since Harold Baines in 1999). The two-homer, five-RBI game increased Wieters' numbers to .344/.462/.750. Look, it's a small sample size, but Wieters improved with the bat in 2011 and maybe he's taking another step forward. He has seven walks and just four strikeouts and if he continues controlling the strike zone like that you may see him improve on the 22 home runs he hit last year. Tough loss for the White Sox, one strike away from winning.

Second base: Lincecum roughed up again. I watched the first inning of the Phillies-Giants game as Tim Lincecum struggled again, allowing four runs. After Placido Polanco doubled and Jimmy Rollins walked, Hunter Pence lined a hanging slider into center for an RBI single. Shane Victorino than flared a ball into center that Angel Pagan had no chance on since he started the play from the Golden Gate Bridge. He was playing so deep it prompted the Phillies' announcers to comment on it and wonder if he played that deep with the Mets. It's worth nothing that Pagan graded out as minus-8 runs below average in Defensive Runs Saved in 2011 (after grading plus-16 and plus-21 in 2009 and 2010). Something for Giants fans to keep an eye on. Anyway, Laynce Nix then lined a curveball down the right-field for a two-run double. Lincecum has now allowed nine first-inning runs in three starts, after allowing just eight all last season. He did settle down after the first and went six innings with five runs ... lowering his season ERA to 10.54.

Third base: Morales of the story. Kendrys Morales hit his first home run since May of 2010, a three-run shot in the first inning off Brandon McCarthy. Congrats to him as he continues his comeback from two years of injuries. Albert Pujols went 2-for-4 and scored two runs in the Angels' 6-0 victory but remained homerless. The A's were shut out for the third time in six games. In other good news for the Angels, Vernon Wells drew his first walk of the season! (Although Morales has yet to draw a freebie.)

Home plate: Tweet of the day.

From Orioles outfielder Adam Jones:

Unreal team effort. Everyone gave everything they had. All we ask.

— 10 (@SimplyAJ10) April 17, 2012

For all the consternation and criticism dished out over the Boston Red Sox's 1-5 start, another expected American League power is off to a sluggish opening week as well: The Los Angeles Angels are 2-4 after coughing up 20 hits and an eighth-inning lead in losing 10-9 to the Minnesota Twins on Thursday.

There is one obvious difference between the two starts: The Red Sox have been outscored 38 to 22 while the Angels are even-up 30 and 30. On the other hand, the Red Sox have played the Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays while the Angels have faced Bruce Chen, Luke Hochevar, Jonathan Sanchez, Nick Blackburn, Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano. Not exactly Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz there.

Actually, based on ESPN.com's preseason predictions, maybe it's not fair to label the Red Sox an "expected power." After all, 34 of 50 voters predicted the Red Sox to miss the playoffs. Only one -- fantasy expert Matthew Berry -- picked the Red Sox to win the American League East. Meanwhile, 25 of the 50 picked the Angels to win the AL West and 46 of 50 picked them to make the playoffs.

The Angels were easily the most popular World Series pick as well, with 18 of the 50 selecting them to win it all -- 36 percent, a pretty amazing total since last time I checked there are some other pretty good teams around. Only one voter (Karl Ravech) picked the Red Sox to win the World Series.

OK, those are just predictions and as our SweetSpot network blog affiliate says, you can't predict baseball. Still, since ESPN's panel of experts did essentially declare the Angels the World Series favorite, it seems like a fair time to ask: What's wrong with the Angels and why aren't their fans ready to fire the manager, whine about overpaid left fielders and complain about the bullpen?

Well, it's Los Angeles, for one thing. No less enthusiastic, but perhaps slightly less pessimistic. Still, we can't get all crazy about the Red Sox and just ignore the Angels getting bulldozed by a mediocre Twins lineup.

True fact: In 2011, the Red Sox had a run differential of plus-138. The Angels had a run differential of just plus-34. As good as Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson are, and as good Kendrys Morales may prove to be, that's still a lot of ground for the Angels to make up.

So, in the spirit of early-season panic, here are some things that could go wrong with the Angels.

1. Jered Weaver doesn't repeat his career season.

Weaver is a terrific pitcher. He has increased his innings each season he has been in the big leagues, peaking at 235.2 last season, when he ranked fifth in the league. It's not a knock against him to say he might not be quite as stingy with the runs as in 2011. But check his basic numbers in 2010 and 2011:



In some regards, he actually pitched better in 2010, most notably in strikeout rate. His walk rate, home run rate and hit rate were all pretty similar, thus his Fielding Independent Pitching runs per nine was basically identical. So why did he allow 18 fewer runs in 2011? A couple primary reasons: 15 of his 20 home runs were solo shots as opposed to 15 of 23 in 2010; he allowed a .195 average with men on base in 2011 versus .236 in 2010. In other words, if you consider hits to be randomly distributed, they worked in his favor last season. Also note: After a hot start in 2011, his second-half ERA rose from 1.86 to 3.21 as he surrendered 15 home runs in 95.1 innings. He's off to a great start in 2012 in one regard: 17 strikeouts and just one walk. But he's allowed five runs for a 3.21 ERA. Random distribution, my friends.

2. Potential bullpen issues.

Mike Scioscia left Rich Thompson in to allow four runs in the eighth inning on Thursday, the first two on Justin Morneau's go-ahead two-run homer and then two more that proved costly when the Angels scored twice in the ninth. Now, Scioscia would have loved to have had lefty Scott Downs face Joe Mauer and Morneau, but Downs had rolled his ankle the previous inning in a collision with Denard Span. Fellow lefty Hisanori Takahashi had already been used since starter Dan Haren lasted only five innings.

But put of the reason Thompson was in there was that ancient relievers LaTroy Hawkins and Jason Isringhausen were apparently unavailable to pitch since both had thrown the night before, Hawkins for 16 pitches, Isringhausen for 10. Seems odd, since neither had pitched on Tuesday. But why not extend closer Jordan Walden for five outs? Thompson is a guy who is homer-prone, so why let him face the meat of the Twins' order? Plus, isn't it a bad sign if two-sevenths of your bullpen can't pitch two days in a row? "We're going to need to get our starters maybe over that little hump and then try to get our roles in the bullpen a little more nailed down," Scioscia said. "Our guys tried. We just couldn't shut the door when we needed it."

3. Vernon Wells.

It's early, but he's hitting .217 with no walks and five strikeouts. Stay tuned.

4. Will we get good Ervin or mediocre Ervin?

Ervin Santana had a career-low 3.38 ERA last season. He has been pretty consistent the past two seasons, but he has been plagued by minor injuries in the past, a reason his ERA rocketed up to 5.03 in 2009 and 5.76 in 2007. Just something to keep in mind.

5. Is Peter Bourjos' bat for real?

Bourjos is a supreme defender in center and he exceeded expectations last year with a .271/.327/.438 batting line. Scouts had doubts about his bat coming up through the minors and he did strike out 124 times against just 32 walks in 2011. While his .338 BABIP may be repeatable -- he is one of the fastest players in the majors, after all -- Dan Szymborski's ZiPS system projects a .261/.309/.412 line, with some regression due to a lower BABIP.

6. Mark Trumbo's defense at third.

I've written about this before. The early returns aren't good; yes, it's early, I realize that. It's also true that since 1950 only Enos Cabell has successfully converted from first base to third base at the major league level. We don't know yet how determined Scioscia will be to keep Trumbo's bat in the lineup, but playing him at third is likely to be a liability, especially since Trumbo's low OBP means he isn't really much -- if any -- of an offensive upgrade over Alberto Callaspo.

7. Howie Kendrick also coming off his best season.

Kendrick posted a career-high .802 OPS in 2011, 50 points above his career mark, fueled by a career-high 18 home runs. It's possible that power growth was real, as he appeared to sacrifice a few more strikeouts -- a career-high 20.4 percent K rate -- for a little more power while maintaining his usual .285 or so batting average. But there's also a chance it was simply his best season and he's not quite as good.

8. Maybe Albert Pujols won't be better than he was in 2011.

Hey, that's still pretty awesome, if also somewhat more mortal compared to his previous decade of production.

Look, it's only a week. The Angels should still have one of the best, and maybe the best, rotations in the league. They have a lot of depth and versatility in the lineup, although it remains to be seen who will be a second and third big bat behind Pujols.

The larger point is this: This isn't a perfect team in my book, certainly one that shouldn't rate as such a landslide favorite to make the playoffs and win the World Series.

So, yes, I just managed to slam 49 of my ESPN colleagues. This is what the first week does to us.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

This is what will have American League pitchers and managers waking up in cold sweats all season long: Those stretches when Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder are both raking, eyes bulging as they pummel meaty fastballs over fences and into outfield seats.

Josh Beckett become the first pitcher to experience these forces of nature in action, as both hit two home runs off him in Detroit's 10-0 victory Saturday over Boston. Fielder hit one out to left field and a low, screaming bullet to right for his pair. Going the opposite way is nothing new for him; 11 of his 38 home runs in 2011 went to left or left-center. There were some concerns that Fielder would lose a few home runs moving from Miller Park to the more spacious environs of Comerica, so hitting one out to left is a good, early sign.

How dynamic is this pair? A season ago, Fielder hit .299/.415/.566 with 38 home runs; Cabrera hit .344/.448/.586 with 30 home runs. The last team with two players to hit 30 home runs with a .400 OBP? The 2006 Red Sox with Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz. Twelve teams since 2000 have had such a duo (or in the case of the 2004 Cardinals, three players):

2006 Red Sox: Ramirez, Ortiz
2005 Yankees: Alex Rodriguez, Jason Giambi
2004 Cardinals: Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen
2003 Yankees: Giambi, Jorge Posada
2002 Astros: Jeff Bagwell, Lance Berkman
2001 Rockies: Todd Helton, Larry Walker
2001 Cardinals: Pujols, Edmonds
2000 Cardinals: Edmonds, Mark McGwire
2000 Angels: Tim Salmon, Troy Glaus
2000 Astros: Bagwell, Moises Alou
2000 Mariners: Rodriguez, Edgar Martinez
2000 Giants: Barry Bonds, Jeff Kent

Of course, all of those pairs or threesomes did this during the high-offense steroids period. Six other teammates did it between 1995 and 1999. But before that? That previous team to have two such players was the 1969 Oakland A's with Reggie Jackson and Sal Bando. Throughout baseball history there have been only 34 such pairs. Here's another way to do this. Let's add OPS+ (adjusted on-base plus slugging percentage) as a third measuring stick. OPS+ adjusts a player's offensive production for home park and era. In 2011, Cabrera's OPS+ was 181, second in the American League. Fielder's was 164, fourth in the National League. Let's set a minimum of 30 home runs, .400 OBP and 150 OPS+.

This takes away some of steroids-era pairs and leaves us with 24 such teammates in baseball history. And six of those 24 were Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig.

And that, my readers, is the kind of company Cabrera and Fielder have the chance to join.

A few more notes from today's early games:

• Beckett served up five home runs, sending waves of sweats and swears throughout Red Sox Nation. He became just the fourth pitcher to allow five homers twice in his career, joining Tim Wakefield, Pat Hentgen and Jeff Weaver. Gordon Edes had a good piece on Beckett before his season debut, detailing his motivation for 2012. Beckett is a bit of an enigma, a guy usually viewed as an ace due to his postseason heroics with the Red Sox in 2007 and Marlins in 2003. But the facts also don't lie: He's finished in the top 10 in his league in ERA only twice, including last season with a 2.89 mark. Beckett has been homer-prone at various stages of his career, most notably in his first season with Boston, in 2006, when he gave up 36. It's only one start, of course, but considering the spring training thumb injury he insisted wasn't an injury, it puts Beckett on the early "keep an eye on him" watch list.
• Angels manager Mike Scioscia picked Game No. 2 to get disgruntled Bobby Abreu in the lineup, putting Abreu in left and moving Vernon Wells to center, sitting defensive whiz Peter Bourjos in the process. "I'm not calling this a day off for Peter, it's the second game, but it's a combination of that and trying to get some left-handed bats in the lineup," Scioscia told Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles. I can't imagine a more defensively challenged outfield pair than those two. Unable to see this game since I had the Red Sox-Tigers game as my local Fox broadcast, I tweeted Angels and Royals fans to ask how many of the 11 hits Dan Haren allowed fell just out of their reach. The consensus seemed to be two or three, although @dblesky wrote, "There were really only a couple. And one was glaring." It will be interesting to see how often Scioscia runs out this lineup, essentially to placate Abreu. I just don't see the Angels being a better team with that alignment and Bourjos on the bench.
• Zack Greinke had a dominant effort in the Brewers' 6-0 shutout over the Cardinals, allowing three hits in seven innings with no walks and seven strikeouts. I wrote this before the game, but here's why Greinke is a good Cy Young pick. Especially impressive were Greinke's economical 91 pitches.
• Tweet of the day after Daniel Hudson and the Diamondbacks beat the Giants for the second consecutive game:
  

  Good way to start the season. Two mistakes and I paid for it. But a win is a win. #sweepthegiants tomorrow! #GoDbacks
  
  — Daniel Hudson (@DHuddy41) April 7, 2012

Some more good stuff from around the SweetSpot network ...

• Ben Duronio examines Craig Kimbrel's breaking ball. Some label the pitch a slider or slurve, but Kimbrel refers to it as a curveball. Here's all that matters: It's a devastating pitch.
• Value Over Replacement Grit has an in-depth look at the "Three True Outcomes" concept (a batter either hitting a home run, drawing a walk or striking out) and applies it to entire teams. Which teams in history have best emulated a TTO attitude?
• Chip Buck of Fire Brand compares the AL East rotations.
• Alex Gordon may be close to signing a one-year deal with the Royals. Craig Brown of Royals Authority has a reaction and breaks down what a potential long-term deal could look like.
• Camden Depot's Jon Shepherd examines what Manny Ramirez could potentially bring if the Orioles sign him.
• Marlins reliever Steve Cishek flew under the radar as a rookie but posted impressive numbers. Jonathan Mitchell at Marlins Daily asks whether Cishek should be considered for a high-leverage role in the Marlins' bullpen.
• At Baseball Prospectus, Aaron Gleeman reviews the Johan Santana trade between the Mets and Twins. With that article in mind, Bill Baer looks back the deals that brought the Phillies Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt.
• Considering what the Brewers traded to get Zack Greinke -- compared to what the Reds gave up for Mat Latos and the Cubs to acquire Matt Garza -- that deal is looking like a steal for Milwaukee, writes Jack Moore.
• Joey Matschulat opines on Elvis Andrus' three-year extension with the Rangers.
• Chris Quick looks at some of the PECOTA projections for the Giants. (PECOTA is the projection system used by Baseball Prospectus.) What about new outfielder Melky Cabrera? Well ... let's just say the Giants may still struggle to score runs.
• Yes, Cubs fans, you have reasons to be optimistic!
• For my fellow Mariners fans, Brendan Gawlowski has a good look at the Mariners' non-roster invites.

And a few more links from elsewhere ...

• John Sickels of Minor League Ball with a fun look at the top 30 position players in baseball and how they were viewed as prospects. Here does the same thing for the top 25 pitchers.
• ESPNBoston kicks off its "10 Question in 10 Days" series heading into spring training with Gordon Edes' look at Bobby Valentine.
• ESPNNewYork has a similar series with the Yankees and Andrew Marchand writes that Johnny Damon is the right fit for the Yankees' DH slot.
• Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas is going position-by-position with the Rangers and looks at Yu Darvish.
• Mark Saxon says that Vernon Wells -- and not Mike Trout -- will be the Angels' left fielder.
• Dave Cameron of FanGraphs lists his top 10 moves of the offseason ... and his 10 worst.
• Mentioned briefly above, Baseball Prospectus has reintroduced PECOTA, its player projection system. Colin Wyers has the details here.
• George Brett's company is being sued. Wait ... you mean those necklaces don't actually improve athletic performance?

Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com asks: Why pitch to Albert Pujols?

In other words: There's a reason the Angels finished 10th in the American League in runs scored in 2011.

Let's examine the Angels' lineup. Let's stick to what we know, and right now we don't now if (A) Kendrys Morales will be healthy; or (B) if Mark Trumbo can play third base. In the past 25 years, only Kevin Youkilis and Todd Zeile have played 100 games at first base in one season and 100 games at third base the next season, and both of them had previous experience at the hot corner.

CF Peter Bourjos

The Angels lack an obvious leadoff hitter on the team, as the only regulars with an OBP above .340 were Bobby Abreu and Alberto Callaspo. Bourjos has the speed and his 49 extra-base hits would add an element of power, but can he get on base enough? His .327 OBP is not what you want from a leadoff hitter, and the strikeouts will rub Mike Scioscia the wrong way. Certainly, Abreu and Callaspo are better leadoff options, but neither guy led off once last season, so that's an option not in Sciosca's wheelhouse.

2B Howie Kendrick

The good news? He's now been relatively healthy two years in a row. He hit a career-high 18 home runs and slugged .464. The bad news? His OBP was still just .338 and after a hot start he hit just .267 after May. Kendrick changed his approach last year, swinging harder -- it resulted in a strikeout rate of 20.4 percent versus a career rate 16.9 percent. The overall result was positive, but he's still a free-swinger who doesn't get on base as much as you'd like.

1B Albert Pujols

2008: .357/.462/.653
2009: .327/.443/.658
2010: .312/.414/.596
2011: .299/.366/.541

Yes, Pujols is a special player. Of course he is. But ... aren't those batting lines pretty good evidence that The Machine is not a machine? That he's slowly aging, no matter his workout regimen or his extreme desire to be the best. New Cardinals manager Mike Matheny and former manager Tony La Russa both made a point to say Pujols isn't like other players, that he'll age well. But I look at those numbers and see a player in slight decline. That said, a rebound year wouldn't surprise me, but keep in mind: (1) He won't get to face the Cubs, Astros and Pirates 45 times a year any more and he's moving into a slightly tougher home run park.

RF Torii Hunter

He's now 36 and showing signs of age: His OPS has dropped from .873 to .819 to .765. He can still mash a left-hander (.287/.389/.497) but was pretty ineffective against right-handers (.252/.313/.402). He's lost much of his speed -- five for 12 stealing bases and he grounded into 24 double plays. In fact, batting Pujols (29 double plays) and Hunter back-to-back is a 6-4-3 waiting to happen.

DH Mark Trumbo

We'll slot Trumbo at DH right now. While he hit 29 home runs as a rookie, he's another guy who doesn't get on base enough -- a .291 OBP. Here's a way to look at this: Trumbo created about 71 runs last season. He used up 427 outs to create those runs. The goal of a hitter is to produce runs while not making outs. Among 32 major league first basemen with at least 300 plate appearances, Trumbo ranked 24th with 4.47 runs created per 27 outs.

LF Bobby Abreu/Vernon Wells

How long of a leash do you give Wells after his miserable season? Do you give him one month? Two months? Trouble is, the AL West and wild-card races project to be very close this year, with the Rangers, plus four quality teams in the AL West. Can the Angels afford to wait to see if Wells regains his stroke at age 33? Since 1990, only two outfielders 30 years or older have had 500 plate appearances and an OBP less than .275 -- Wells and Alex Rios (also in 2011). If we lower the threshold to 300 PAs, we get 2007 Craig Monroe (who never played regularly again) and 2005 Steve Finley (who did rebound from a .271 OBP to .320 the next year). Still, there is such a small track of players who played as poorly as Wells that it's difficult to project what he'll do.

As for Abreu, he can still get on base against right-handers (.366 OBP), but his defense is terrible, his power mostly evaporated and he can't hit lefties. In my book, I'd just give the job to Mike Trout. His speed and defense are good enough until his bat comes around, but he'll likely begin the season in Triple-A.

3B Alberto Callaspo/Maicer Izturis

For all the talk about the Angels upgrading third base -- moving Trumbo there or trading for David Wright -- the Izturis/Callaspo platoon wasn't all that bad. Angels' third basemen ranked 11th in OPS in the majors and third in OBP. In fact, and I know Angels fans will find this hard to believe, but Callaspo created 5.22 runs per 27 outs. Better than Trumbo. Now, it's possible Trumbo may improve -- hit for a higher average, draw a few more walks -- but based on 2011 results, the Angels are better off playing Callaspo at third (assuming Trumbo isn't Scott Rolen on defense).

C Chris Iannetta

The big question: How will he hit outside of Coors Field? His home/road splits in 2011 were extreme -- .301 at home, .172 on the road. They haven't been that large over the course of his career, but still sizable (.869 OPS at home, .707 on the road). He has a lot of patience at the plate, although his walk rate was high in small part to usually batting eighth in front of the pitcher. Still, he'll be a big improvement offensively over Jeff Mathis, even if he doesn't match his Rockies numbers.

SS Erick Aybar

He'll also factor into the leadoff position, where he started 55 games in 2011 -- at least against right-handed pitchers (.341 OBP versus righties, .284 versus lefties).

Now, the strength of the lineup is that there's no outstanding weakness ... well, assuming Vernon Wells doesn't get 500 plate appearances again. If Kendrys Morales is healthy, the team will have even more depth, which is a good thing: Hunter can play 130 games instead of 156; Izturis can fill in at third, short and second; maybe Trumbo turns into a sort of four-corner super sub: 20 games at first, 20 games at third, 20 games in each of the corner outfield spots, some time at DH. If Wells and Abreu struggle, Trout is ready on the farm. Having this kind of flexibility is a manager's dream.

On the other, the only outstanding strength is Albert Pujols. He's the only hitter who projects to post an .800 OPS (Kendrick was .802 last season, his career-best). Even the 2010 San Francisco Giants, maligned for their mediocre offense, had four hitters with an .800 OPS -- Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell, Buster Posey and Andres Torres. Tampa Bay didn't have much offense in 2011? They had four .800 OPS hitters in Evan Longoria, Matt Joyce, Ben Zobrist and Casey Kotchman (plus Desmond Jennings in part-time play). The only AL playoff team in the past three seasons with fewer than four .800 OPS regulars was the 2010 Rays, which had Longoria and Carl Crawford and part-time Joyce.

So, yes, it's possible this lineup will score enough runs. Kendrick may have a better season, especially if he bats in front of Pujols. Maybe Bourjos improves or Trout gets called up and hits .285 with some power. Maybe Morales is healthy and assumes the cleanup spot on a regular basis.

All that remains to be seen. Right now, this a lineup with depth but not one that should strike fear in opposing pitchers.

Now in its last year of existence, baseball’s short stack will get rounded out to five teams when the Astros enter the American League in 2013. But in the meantime, it’s another four-way wrestling match. However, it’s also a starkly segregated division. On one side, you’ve got the defending pennant-winning Rangers (twice over) and their chief rivals, the Angels. On the other side, the Athletics have won 74-76 games in four of the last five years, while the Mariners have been stuck in the 60s for wins in three of the last four.

Texas Rangers

1. Rotation: Add a veteran? Or re-sign C.J. Wilson?

It isn’t that what the Rangers have right now isn’t good -- most teams would love to have a young quartet as talented as Neftali Feliz, Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando and Matt Harrison lined up with Colby Lewis. They could probably win the division with that. But is any one of them that stopper you expect to beat a playoff team with? Holland or Feliz might grow into it, or Ogando, but do the Rangers want to count on the Madduxes and the talent, or will they hedge their bets by bringing Wilson back or going after someone like Roy Oswalt?

Likely solution: If they don’t bring Wilson back or win the bidding on a high-profile vet with playoff experience like Oswalt, they’ll opt out and not buy a veteran guaranteed rotation slot just for the sake of it. It’ll be either a significant upgrade or some retread for organizational depth, with nothing in between.

2. First base -- Settle or shop?

Last season, it might have seemed like they did quite nicely without having an everyday answer, rotating Mitch Moreland, Mike Napoli and Michael Young through the slot. However, Young isn’t much of a first baseman, Moreland failed to develop at the plate and Napoli spends a good chunk of his time catching. Rangers first basemen rated a whopping 12th in the American League in OPS, beating out only the A’s grab bag of prospects and the Rays rentals. While they’re not likely to get in on Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols, is there anyone else worth chasing?

Likely solution: Unless the Rangers want to revisit last winter’s drama of shopping Michael Young, it doesn’t seem likely that they’ll end up spending serious money at first base. Seeing if Moreland develops at age 26 while they settle for good defenders in center wouldn’t be the end of the world, but this is the team that might get the biggest benefit from sneaking in on Carlos Pena.

3. Center field -- Settle or shop?

The Rangers will need to sort out whether or not they want to add someone new to the mix. Josh Hamilton made only a month’s worth of starts in the middle pasture, and the Rangers spent much of the season with Endy Chavez and Gary Gentry batting ninth and splitting time in center while Julio Borbon’s season was lost to injuries. Will they settle for Gentry and Borbon in 2012, and take their blend of defense and OBP? The market isn’t exactly rich in alternatives.

Likely solution: Here, they can let it ride or go cheap on another defensive specialist, say, Rick Ankiel, with the hope that he rebounds in the Ballpark’s friendly confines. There’s not a lot of point in overpaying the likes of Coco Crisp to be just slightly better.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

The biggest issue was finding a solution to the Jeff Mathis fetish, but they’ve addressed that with their pickup of Chris Iannetta. Even if Iannetta’s .707 OPS outside of Coors Field might be a splash of cold water for folks expecting the second coming of Mike Piazza, he’s still a bigger slice of that pie at the plate than Mathis will ever be.

1. A premium bat.

You’d think that with Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and Carlos Beltran on the market this would be easy, but the Angels are stacked with bodies (if not bats) at the corners. Figuring where to go for a premium hitter is the real trick, because the Angels have stuck themselves with so many ex-famous people, and that’s without getting into what they need to do with Mark Trumbo if Kendrys Morales’ comeback works out. The rumors of interest in the Mets’ David Wright to play third base makes some sense as a deal from depth, but acquiring Wright for Peter Bourjos -- which is really only a good idea if they know they can work out an extension with Wright -- wouldn’t erase their overlapping issues at first base, DH and the outfield corners. Aramis Ramirez is notionally the same sort of fix, except his play at third base leaves a lot to be desired; it wouldn’t be long before he wound up playing a lot of DH or first base.

Likely solution: It won’t be easy to work something out, but third base is a good place to go. But they can’t settle for getting one year of Wright before free agency for five of Bourjos and call it a day. Ideally, Jerry Dipoto needs to swap out one of the aging stiffs and bring in a real thumper, no easy feat. If he manages it, he might automatically win the label for Hot Stove MVP. If he also gets Morales back and bopping in 2012, the offense will be better still.

2. Starting pitcher (Joel Pineiro, free agent, plus Tyler Chatwood was dealt)

Even if Garrett Richards is almost ready and regardless of whether or not you want to believe Jerome Williams is an answer, they’re best left to fight it out for the last slot. Because of the mess on offense, one way to compensate would be to add a premium starter to help keep more games in reach. Unfortunately, the market isn’t stocked with quality options, but chasing after C.J. Wilson is an obvious avenue to pursue, giving the rotation a quality lefty to balance their reliance on Jered Weaver, Dan Haren and Ervin Santana up front.

Likely solution: Signing Wilson would be the easy solution. They hold 2013 options on Haren and Santana, but beyond that, it’s Weaver and nobody in terms of commitments. Signing Wilson would address that while providing balance.

3. Making room for Mike Trout.

The ex-famous people problem is the real issue here. Torii Hunter will be turning 32 next summer; he isn’t going to get any better. Trumbo’s just the new Dave Kingman if he builds on his rookie season. Bobby Abreu’s power is a distant memory, and Vernon Wells’ dead-cat bounce in 2011 only went so high. These are the guys in Trout’s way to everyday play, not Bourjos.

Likely solution: It’s easy to say these things will sort themselves out, but by July, it’s doubtful that Trout will be any more ready than he already is. Eating the $63 million it’ll cost to employ Wells the next three years might be more affordable because Trout’s under contractual control for the next six years.

Oakland Athletics

1. Bodies to play in the outfield. (David DeJesus signed with the Cubs, and Coco Crisp and Josh Willingham are free agents.)

If you’re an outfielder, the A’s need you, because all three regulars are outbound. Ryan Sweeney might get to man one corner, and you might hope that Jermaine Mitchell mounts a bid on the job in center. But the A’s really need to sign an outfielder or two, ideally one who can play center. Re-signing Crisp as a placeholder seems to be getting a lot of consideration, which would be a return to the lamentable legacy of Willie Wilson serving time in this outfield in the ’90s, and cause for joy for nobody. After a .960 OPS between Double- and Triple-A, Mitchell’s interesting as an athletic, late-developing farmhand, but he’ll be 27 next year. There’s also Michael Taylor, once considered one of the top prospects in baseball, and currently more of a source of frustration after two mediocre seasons at Sacramento.

Likely solution: The only likelihood is that the fixes will be cheap. Whether it’s a matter of absorbing the tail end of other people’s bad-news deals if they’re footing the bill, renting hitters a year removed from free agency like DeJesus and Willingham, or sifting through the bargain bin, get ready for a new temp crew.

2. Power: 12th in the AL and 24th in MLB in Isolated Power (ISO)

Even if they wind up with outfielders like the ones we’ve noted, it isn’t like Crisp or Mitchell or Sweeney provide any power, which the A’s will sorely need with Willingham’s departure. Between Brandon Allen, Chris Carter, Daric Barton and Kila Ka’aihue, they might have in-house answers for first base and DH, but a multitude of options is not the same thing as having answers.

Likely solution: Ditching Hideki Matsui has helped open room for the crowd of first base/DH options, and a full season from Scott Sizemore at third base should help, but don’t be surprised if the A’s spring for one slugger to man first, DH or one of the outfield corners. It might help them remain 12th in the league.

3. San Jose or bust.

This is really the most important issue for the franchise this and every winter until it’s resolved, but team owner Lewis Wolff is slowly wading through lawsuits by proxy and MLB’s indecision over territorial rights to Santa Clara County to complete a ponderously slow attempt to move south within the East Bay region. The mayor of San Jose asked for this to be fixed two years ago; he was politely ignored. The city’s now trying to sell land to Wolff for the express purpose of building a ballpark, but it’s unclear if he’ll be allowed to move his team to the city out of an exaggerated consideration for the Giants’ claim. If the A’s were generous in ceding rights to San Jose when the Giants were moving into their new digs (away from San Jose), the Giants have been selfish in subsequently asserting their claims.

Likely solution: There isn’t one. The A’s and their fans as well as the cities of San Jose and Oakland remain hostage to the original sin of Bud Selig and company for sloppily and generously granting the Giants these rights in the first place. It’s up to the industry to fix that error, but so far there’s been an abdication of authority from MLB in the face of noisy assertiveness from the Giants. The Giants are well within their rights and understandably acting out of self-interest -- either to try and force the A’s out of the market, or extort an ill-gotten payday -- but this needs fixing. With the CBA and Astros’ sale done, this should be the top item of business for the commissioner. Let’s see if he treats it that way.

Seattle Mariners

1. A middle-of-the order thumper. (.115 ISO, 28th in MLB)

You can blame playing in Safeco, but that goes only so far, as the Mariners’ .658 OPS on the road was only slightly better than their awful .623 OPS in home games. Much of the problem is self-inflicted -- they’re the team that values punchless shortstop Brendan Ryan for his virtues afield more highly than any other, after all. While the holdovers in the outfield almost all endured horrific 2011 seasons, a group that includes Ichiro Suzuki, Franklin Gutierrez, Trayvon Robinson, Mike Carp and Michael Saunders is capable of doing better. Which really leaves third base, DH and possibly first as the places where GM Jack Zduriencik might add an impact bat. This has fed into a lot of speculation over Zduriencik’s former Milwaukee connection to Prince Fielder.

Likely solution: Landing Fielder would be a major coup, but it would be a fairly extreme act of faith by Fielder that Zduriencik’s going to get this thing turned around during the life of his contract, assuming Seattle even has the money for that kind of offer. It’s more likely that the Mariners will have to settle. A right-handed bat would be great for their lineup’s balance, but Safeco is death on right-hander power, suggesting that someone like Aramis Ramirez wouldn’t be a good fit. Guys like Casey Blake and Ryan Ludwick are familiar to manager Eric Wedge from their days in Cleveland; they’re also not really answers. Moving Carp to DH and looking at J.D. Drew or Jason Kubel would be a little more interesting.

2. A veteran starter. (Traded Erik Bedard and Doug Fister away.)

This is really about making sure they get innings until a few more of the kids are ready for call-ups. Ideally, any veteran would also be someone they could flip at the deadline. Top prospects like Danny Hultzen and James Paxton might earn September call-ups, but the Mariners need someone to take the ball in the meantime. Because they have a great venue for pitchers and a strong defense to offer as inducements beyond cash, they should be able to find someone interested.

Likely outcome: They’ll get the inning guys like Aaron Harang, Paul Maholm and Jon Garland should be calling the Mariners rather than the other way around; finding somebody will be more a matter of finding someone willing to sign for what they’re willing to offer. It would be interesting to see if the M’s could induce Hiroki Kuroda to sign on rather than return to Japan now that the Dodgers are out of the picture.

3. Third base: Open.

Prospects Alex Liddi, Francisco Martinez and Vinnie Catricala are all a bit rough at the hot corner, and the Mariners probably have zero interest in giving Figgins another crack at the job after witnessing his .595 OPS in two seasons in Seattle. Kyle Seager might get the lion’s share of playing time by default if the Mariners don’t add a vet for temp duty. It won’t cost them the pennant.

Likely solution: Third base is an area of need for a lot of teams, and if the Mariners are willing to eat most of the $18 million they still owe Figgins, they’d almost certainly find an interested party. They shouldn’t waste the roster spot indefinitely if they’re not going to play him. A veteran placeholder like Blake might fit here on a one-year deal, assuming Zduriencik doesn’t conjure up a better solution with some wheeling and dealing.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

Jose Reyes landed on the disabled list for the second time this season with hamstring issues, and Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com asks how this will affect Reyes' free-agent payday. Can Reyes expect a deal similar to what Boston gave Carl Crawford -- seven years, $142 million?

Reyes was having an MVP campaign, but after missing just 14 games from 2005 through 2008, he's now missed 126 games in 2009, 29 games in 2010 and now he'll miss about 30 in 2011, assuming his current DL stint lasts two weeks.

An easy way to check the likelihood of Reyes getting Crawford-type money is to check the injury history of other players who signed the biggest deals in MLB history. Here are the injury histories of all position players who signed $125 million-plus contracts.

Alex Rodriguez ($275M, 2008-17): Through 2007, A-Rod had played 154-plus games seven years in a row. But he hasn't played 140 since.

Derek Jeter ($189M, 2001-10): This season will be only the second time in his career Jeter has played fewer than 148 games.

Joe Mauer ($184M, 2011-18): Mauer had suffered various leg ailments as a rookie in 2004 that limited him to 35 games. He played just 109 games in 2007. He'd suffered back issues in spring training in 2009. He was a risky investment.

Mark Teixeira ($180M, 2009-16): One of the most durable players in the majors, Teixeira has had just two minor DL stints in his career.

Manny Ramirez ($160M, 2001-08): Ramirez signed his big deal despite missing 39 games in 2000 with a left hamstring injury. He'd play 150-plus games four years out of the eight-year contract, with a low of 120 in 2002.

Troy Tulowitzki ($157.7M, 2011-20): An interesting test case, as Tulo missed 61 games in 2008 and 40 games last year. He's been healthy in 2011, missing just five games.

Adrian Gonzalez ($154M, 2012-18): Gonzalez had missed just 11 games over five seasons when the Red Sox acquired him.

Miguel Cabrera ($152.3M, 2008-15): He's never been on the DL and has missed just 29 games over eight seasons.

Crawford ($142M, 2011-17): He missed six weeks in 2008 with a finger injury and 19 games in 2007, but had played 150-plus his six other seasons.

Todd Helton ($141.5M, 2003-11): Had never been on the DL at the time of the extension, although he'd suffer through back problems during the contract and top 100 RBIs just once.

Alfonso Soriano ($136M, 2007-14): A terrible contract for an overrated player, but not because of any injury history.

Vernon Wells ($126M, 2008-14): He'd missed 28 games in 2004, but it's not his health that has made this a terrible deal.

Jayson Werth ($126M, 2011-17): Werth missed all of 2006 with a wrist injury but had missed just nine games combined in 2009-10.

Ryan Howard ($125M, 2012-16): Howard's extension signed last April doesn't even kick in until next season. Health isn't an issue, but declining numbers are.

Two players -- Mauer and Tulowitzki -- had enough injury history to raise a red flag at the time of their mega-contracts. It's important to note both were signed by their original teams, so that could be an indicator that if any team is willing to give Reyes a $125 million deal, it might be the Mets. (Well, if they have the money to do so.)

How much would you pay for Reyes? Vote in the poll.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

Some stuff to check out ...

• Stephanie Liscio has a soft spot for Fausto Carmona, but with a 6.17 ERA, what are the Indians supposed to do with him?
• I agree with Brien Jackson at It's About the Money: Why is Joe Girardi platooning outfielder Brett Gardner?
• SportsNation asks some questions about interleague play and why you think the AL dominates.
• Jack McKeon's first big league managerial stint came in 1973. Do you know the big winners of that year?
• Crashburn Alley gets technical with Ryan Howard and Chase Utley to see how they may perform the rest of the season.
• Dustin Ackley is wearing No. 13. Did you know no Hall of Famers have worn that number?
• More proof of how Joe Maddon as a manager is always one step ahead of things.
• I'm with Paul Lukas of Uni Watch fame: I, too, try to spot baseball diamonds from an airplane window. Check out some cool photos.
• What's wrong with Chad Billingsley? His curveball hasn't been curving.
• What's wrong with Adam Dunn and Vernon Wells? ESPN Insider's Dan Szymborski's sizes up their chances for improvement.
• Chris Jones takes a look at John Lackey over at Grantland.com. Is any player in the AL East more disliked right now?
• Our old friend Rob Neyer makes attempts to ease the worry of Yankee fans by suggesting they may soon have seven good starting pitchers available to them.
• The Giants may be acquiring George Kottaras for catcher. A short profile, courtesy of Bay City Ball.
• Tom Verducci writes at SI that Jose Reyes has become the most compelling player in the game, or one of. He also argues that Carl Crawford-type money may be headed his way.

So, Thomas Neumann of Page 2 sent me this picture of a Sports Illustrated cover, listing all the millionaire players from 1985. I think Thomas was working on a career retrospective of John Denny or something, I'm not sure. (OK, he actually interviewed Mike Schmidt.) Anyway, it got me thinking: What if we compare the highest-paid players from 1985 to the highest-paid players of 2011 ... and find out if teams are smarter than they were in 1985. After all, front offices know much more than they used to, right? With all the advanced metrics out there, all the Ivy League dudes making the decisions and so on, you'd expect smarter moves being made by front offices.

Let's take the top 25 players from that 1985 cover, the top 25 highest-paid players of 2011 and check their Wins Above Replacement level (WAR) from Baseball-Reference.com. For 2011, we'll using their current WAR prorated to the entire season.

1985 Top 25 Highest-Paid Players
1. Mike Schmidt ($2.1M): 5.3 WAR
2. Jim Rice ($2.1M): 1.1 WAR
3. George Foster ($1.9M): 1.5 WAR
4. Dave Winfield ($1.7M): 2.8 WAR
5. Gary Carter ($1.7M): 6.7 WAR
6. Dale Murphy ($1.6M): 5.3 WAR
7. Bob Horner ($1.5M): 1.8 WAR
8. Rickey Henderson ($1.5M): 10.0 WAR
9. Eddie Murray ($1.4M): 6.0 WAR
10. Bruce Sutter ($1.3M): -0.1 WAR
11. Ozzie Smith ($1.3M): 5.7 WAR
12. Jack Clark ($1.3M): 3.3 WAR
13. Robin Yount ($1.3M): 1.7 WAR
14. Pedro Guerrero ($1.3M): 7.8 WAR
15. Rick Sucliffe ($1.3M): 2.8 WAR
16. Fernando Valenzuela ($1.2M): 5.6 WAR
17. Goose Gossage ($1.2M): 2.6 WAR
18. Tim Raines ($1.2M): 7.5 WAR
19. Steve Kemp ($1.2M): -0.2 WAR
20. Steve Carlton ($1.2M): 1.2 WAR
21. Andre Dawson ($1.1M): 2.0 WAR
22. Keith Hernandez ($1.1M): 4.9 WAR
23. Mario Soto ($1.1M): 3.6 WAR
24. Andre Thornton ($1.1M): 0.0 WAR
25. Fred Lynn ($1.1M): 2.0 WAR

Total salary: $34.8 million.
Total major payroll in 1985: About $264.7 million.
Percentage of total payroll: 13.1 percent.
Total WAR: 90.9.

2011 Top 25 Highest-Paid Players
1. Alex Rodriguez ($32.0M): 5.3 WAR
2. Vernon Wells ($26.2M): -1.4 WAR
3. CC Sabathia ($24.3M): 4.6 WAR
4. Mark Teixeira ($23.1M): 3.9 WAR
5. Joe Mauer ($23.0M): -0.5 WAR
6. Johan Santana ($21.6M): Injured
7. Todd Helton ($20.3M): 3.9 WAR
8. Miguel Cabrera ($20.0M): 6.7 WAR
9. Roy Halladay ($20.0M): 9.2 WAR
10. Ryan Howard ($20.0M): 2.5 WAR
11. Carlos Beltran ($19.3M): 5.1 WAR
12. Carlos Lee ($19.0M): 3.0 WAR
13. Alfonso Soriano ($19.0M): 1.2 WAR
14. Carlos Zambrano ($18.9M): 2.8 WAR
15. Torii Hunter ($18.5M): -0.7 WAR
16. Barry Zito ($18.5M): -0.5 WAR
17. Jason Bay ($18.1M): 0.0 WAR
18. Ichiro Suzuki ($18.0M): 0.5 WAR
19. Josh Beckett ($17.0M): 9.2 WAR
20. A.J. Burnett ($16.5M): 2.3 WAR
21. Matt Holliday ($16.3M): 5.1 WAR
22. Michael Young ($16.1M): 1.8 WAR
23. Roy Oswalt ($16.0M): 3.7 WAR
24. Jake Peavy ($16.0M): 0.7 WAR
25. John Lackey ($15.9M): -2.5 WAR

Total salary: $493.6 million.
Total major payroll in 2011: About $2.786 billion.
Percentage of total payroll: 17.7 percent.
Total prorated WAR: 65.9.

FINAL ANALYSIS

Major league owners in 2011 are paying a higher percentage of their total payroll to the top 25 players and receiving far less production. Even if you account for better seasons the rest of the way from the likes of Joe Mauer and Ichiro Suzuki and Torii Hunter and John Lackey, the 2011 group wouldn't come close to matching the 1985 group in total WAR.

What's amazing is to look at the 2011 list and realize how many of those guys were never superstar players: Vernon Wells? Carlos Lee? Torii Hunter? Michael Young? A.J. Burnett? Barry Zito? Please. Good players at one point, never superstars.

Another way to look at it: Of the top 25 position players in B-R's WAR in 2011, only ONE (Miguel Cabrera) is one of the top-25 highest-paid players. In 1985, nine of the top 25 position players were among the 25 highest-paid players.

Also, in 2011, 10 of the top-25 highest-paid players are pitchers -- who inherently are more risky. Of those 11, five have spent time on the DL this season.

So, nice job major league owners and general managers! You're collectively, umm ... well, let's just say that Vernon Wells isn't worth $26.2 million.

Follow Dave on Twitter @dschoenfield and check out the SweetSpot Facebook page.

Here are some of the best reasons why you should listen to Tuesday's Baseball Today podcast with me and College World Series expert Keith Law!

1. Derek "The Captain" Jeter has a painful boo-boo and we discuss the big Yankees picture and how a few weeks off wouldn't be such a bad thing.

2. It's one thing for fantasy owners to count on Florida Marlins right-hander Ricky Nolasco, but what must it be like for the organization to see such inconsistent performances like Monday's? I mean, a pitcher homered off him!

3. Vernon Wells is a good guy. Vernon Wells hit two home runs Monday. See what I did there? Two Wells sentences and no mention of ...

4. I waited all weekend to hear Keith's take on the latest realignment news and how it affects so many parts of the game. He didn't disappoint.

5. College World Series fever, catch it! Keith has! He tells us the teams to watch.

Plus: Excellent emails, why Jair Jurrjens should be in Cy Young consideration (I didn't know he wasn't!), thoughts on some of the young Rockies, the Indians are who we thought they were and we preview Tuesday night in baseball, all on Tuesday's Baseball Today podcast!

Sad news for the Angels, as Kendrys Morales will miss the entire season after needing further surgery on the ankle he broke last year.

In the big picture, it's a tough blow, as Morales' had been one of baseball's top sluggers in 2009, hitting .306/.355/.569, and now it sounds like his career could be in jeopardy. On the positive side, the Angels have a capable replacement in Mark Trumbo, who is hitting .263/.303/.474 with six home runs. The numbers are right in line with his projections -- Baseball Prospectus projected him to hit .276/.320/.488. He's too much of a free-swinger (six walks, 29 strikeouts) to ever be really valuable with the bat, but at least he provides some power. Morales was about a 3.5 WAR-level player in 2009, while Trumbo has been about a 0.6-WAR player so far, so the difference isn't as extreme you may think -- maybe a win over a full season if Trumbo keeps up his current level.

The Angels are 21-17, good enough for first in the AL West right now, despite no Morales, terrible production from Vernon Wells, the desire to keep giving at-bats to Jeff Mathis and the fact that their cleanup hitters are batting .239 with a .292 OBP. While it's easy to give all the credit to Jered Weaver and Dan Haren, the offense actually hasn't been that bad, ranking ninth in the AL in runs scored. But if you adjust for Angels Stadium being a pitcher's park, it actually ranks a little higher, more middle of the pack.

The problem comes with future performance: Howie Kendrick, Maicer Izturis and Alberto Callaspo are all hitting over .300 and Peter Bourjos is hitting .290 despite 40 strikeouts in 131 at-bats. Bourjos, Kendrick and Izturis rank fifth, sixth and eighth in the AL in batting average on balls in play. Bourjos, in particular, is due for a decline in production unless he cuts way back on those strikeouts. Right now, rookie catcher Hank Conger is splitting time with the offensively inept Mathis. While it's understandable not wanting to give the full-time job to a rookie, Conger's bat may be needed on a five-day-week basis, rather than three.

I think the Angels can hang in there. They play great defense (second-best UZR in the majors) and have two aces. And while the offense isn't great, remember that it's 2011 ... not many are.

Follow David on Twitter: @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog: @espn_sweet_spot.

Who says there’s no such thing as a big series in April? Not me.

Starting Monday, we have Giants at Rockies for three games, and it certainly feels like a big showdown to me. The Rockies have baseball’s best record at 12-3 -- but have yet to play a team with a winning record, as they’ve cleaned up against the Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Pirates, Mets and Cubs. So they have a little something to prove. The Giants are 8-7, four games behind the Rockies, and certainly don’t want to leave Denver seven games out of first place. They have their three top starters lined up (Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez, Matt Cain) to prove something to Troy Tulowitzki and Co.

The Rockies have been impressive in outscoring their opponents 85 to 59, especially going 7-1 on the road, after a dismal 31-50 mark in 2010. The Rockies have had only one winning road season in franchise history -- 41-40 in 2009 -- so getting off to a strong start there is a positive sign.

Second-year righty Esmil Rogers starts Monday against Lincecum in what may look like a mismatch, but Rogers has been solid in winning his first two starts. As a rookie in 2010 he was jerked around between Triple-A and the majors, between the bullpen and starting, so this is a good opportunity for the Rockies to see what they have. So far he’s been effective against left-handers (.200/.300/.343) but there are doubts on how his stuff will fare consistently against lefty swingers.

And with all the attention given to Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, it’s easy to forget that Ubaldo Jimenez is back after missing a couple starts with a cracked cuticle. The Giants hit just .168 in four games against Jimenez last season. He starts Tuesday against Sanchez.

Cain has allowed three runs over his first three starts, despite just 10 strikeouts over 19 innings. Going back to last September, and including his three postseason starts, Cain has allowed more than two runs just once in 10 starts (his final regular-season start of 2010). He may not impress you with the raw stuff that Lincecum and Jimenez possess, but since 2009 the only starters with a better ERA are Felix Hernandez, Adam Wainwright, Roy Halladay, Josh Johnson, Clayton Kershaw, Chris Carpenter and Lincecum.

The Giants may also make a move with Cody Ross during the series. After a couple rehab starts with Fresno on Sunday and Monday, he should be activated from the DL. Will rookie first baseman Brandon Belt be sent down? After an 0-for-4 effort on Sunday, Belt is down to .200/.310/.280, with one homer and one double in 50 at-bats. But his eight walks shows the excellent discipline and understanding of the strike zone he displayed in the minors.

Considering Aubrey Huff’s shaky efforts in the outfield, the Giants may want to move Huff back to first and send Belt down until his bat gets going. I think it would be a mistake; despite his postseason heroics, Ross just isn’t that good (and it hurts saying that, as I’m a big fan). Ross can hit lefties -- .883 OPS in 2010 -- but shouldn’t be a regular against righties (.687 OPS in 2010). Andres Torres’ strained Achilles tendon that landed him on the DL may give Belt a two-week reprieve, as Ross could slide into center field (except Aaron Roward is inexplicably off to a .364/.378/.568 start in 44 at-bats).

It all adds up to some intriguing subplots to the best series of the week.

OTHER SERIES OF THE WEEK

Los Angeles Angels at Texas

Monday: Ervin Santana (0-1, 3.74 ERA) vs. C.J. Wilson (1-0, 3.72)

Tuesday: Matt Palmer (0-0, 7.71) vs. Colby Lewis (1-1, 5.25)

Wednesday: Jered Weaver (4-0, 1.30) vs. Matt Harrison (3-0, 1.23)

The Angels are riding the red-hot arms of Jered Weaver and Dan Haren and come to Texas riding a five-game winning streak. The offense has been solid, but it’s coming from surprising sources: Maicer Izturis is hitting .383, Alberto Callaspo .346 and Howie Kendrick has five home runs. Vernon Wells has raised his average to .148, but still seeks his first home run. (How many years left on that deal?) For the Rangers, their own hot pitcher, Matt Harrison, squares off against Weaver in the series finale. Harrison’s start is especially impressive considering his outings have come against the Yankees, Orioles and Red Sox. Harrison entered this season with 225 major league innings and not much of a track record -- 5.39 ERA, 261 hits, 31 home runs, only 4.9 K’s per nine innings. He’s allowed just 14 hits in 22 innings despite a below-average strikeout rate (5.7). He’s throwing more strikes and getting more ground balls, but I’m not sold on him just yet.

PITCHING MATCHUP OF THE WEEK

Friday: Jon Lester (1-1, 3.20 ERA) vs. Dan Haren (4-0, 1.16 ERA), Red Sox at Angels

Haren has been absolutely dominant so far, pounding the strike zone, allowing opponents a .164 average and generally looking like the best pitcher in the AL. If there’s been one complaint about Haren over the years it’s that he throws too many strikes, leading to a lot of home runs (31 in 2010, 27 in 2009), So far, he’s allowed just one in 31 innings, and pitching in Angel Stadium will help, as it’s one of the tougher home runs parks in the AL.

THREE SWINGS

1. Watched Jose Contreras close out the Phillies’ 3-2 win over the Marlins for his third save. It wasn’t pretty, as he walked two batters and threw just nine of 22 pitches for strikes, finally getting Omar Infante to ground out sharply to end it. Contreras hasn’t allowed a run in five innings, but I’m still a little skeptical about the Philly bullpen. But … maybe the Phillies won’t need much beyond Contreras, Ryan Madson (five scoreless innings) and Antonio Bastardo (nine K’s in 5 2/3 innings). Philadelphia relievers threw just 421 innings last season, fewest in the NL. No team has pitched fewer than 400 since the 2005 Cardinals threw 397 2/3, but the Phillies are a good bet to do it. That Cardinals team won 100 games and all five starters -- Chris Carpenter, Jason Marquis, Mark Mulder, Jeff Suppan and Matt Morris -- made at least 31 starts.

2. Welcome back, Grady Sizemore. Nice to see Cleveland’s center fielder go 2-for-4 with a home run, double and an RBI in his first game since May 16. The Indians are 11-4 after sweeping the Orioles for their third series sweep already, and it’s worth noting that Shin-Soo Choo (.214/.286/.339) and Carlos Santana (.196/.276/.314) aren’t hitting yet, and they will.

3. I watched the major league debut of Arizona pitcher Josh Collmenter and he had one of the weirdest motions you’ll see. Midway through the windup, as he brings the ball back behind him, he does a little bit of a knee jerk of sorts, leans back a bit, and then comes straight over the top. He’s not really much of a prospect -- Baseball America didn’t rate him as one of Arizona’s top 30 prospects -- but he entered in the 11th inning against the Giants, threw strikes, worked quickly (a lesson for all rookies), retired all six batters he faced and got the win when Arizona scored in the bottom of the 12th. Congrats, Josh.

RANT OF THE WEEK

Right when I start believing in the Brewers … they go out and lose a doubleheader to Jason Marquis and Livan Hernandez, two guys who can’t break 90 with their fastballs (actually, in the case of Livan, he can’t break 85). The Brewers desperately need Corey Hart to return, as the team’s lack of depth is embarrassing. Mark Kotsay? Forty-year-old Craig Counsell? Thirty-three-year-old outfielder Erick Almonte, once hailed as the next Derek Jeter, but now listed at 245 pounds and coming off a two-homer season in Triple-A? Please. This has to be one of the worst benches in the majors, especially for a supposed contender.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Organizational leadership is a key to success in any business.

In an effort to rank the management of the five American League East teams, we will breakdown and grade each of the owners, GMs and managers in the division. Each category will be graded against their peers, and a composite score will be totaled. The highest ranking in a given category will receive five points, while the worst will receive one point.

Certainly this is a topic that very well could require 2,000 or more words to discuss, but I've consolidated it for the SweetSpot.

Owner: Hank Steinbrenner | AL East rank: 2nd | Points: 4
The mighty, mighty Steinbrenners. First it was George and now it's Hank. He possesses an unrelenting desire to win and a giant piggy bank to draw from. Demonstrates little restraint and is always trying to capture the next ring. It's hard to argue with that attitude from your owner, even when emotions go wild in the Bronx, leading to irrational decisions.

General manager: Brian Cashman | Rank: 3rd | Points: 3

He has won four World Series in his time as GM, but three of them you can probably credit to Gene Michael. Has been willing to let impact players walk and is not always in sync with ownership. Cashman has a blank check and a lot of expensive hits and misses on his résumé. Would you rank him higher or lower? I'm split.

Manager: Joe Girardi | Rank: 3rd | Points: 3

He has one pennant and one World Series title in three years as a manager of the Yankees, but many feel the team won it in spite of him. Girardi's a former catcher and previously won Manager of the Year in 2006 while with the Florida Marlins. Sometimes makes questionable in-game moves, particularly with the bullpen.

Yankees' composite score: 10 points

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Owner: Rogers Communications | Rank: 5th | Points: 1
Rogers has caught the drift. Get out of the way of baseball operations. Nitpicky ownership saddled the team during the J.P. Riccardi era while trying to build up "sports content." Things are better with Alex Anthopoulos, but this ownership group still ranks dead last in the AL East.

General manager: Alex Anthopoulos | Rank: 4th | Points: 2
Possibly the best young GM in baseball. Being the fourth-best best GM in the AL East is a tough draw. Brokered the "Doc Deal" netting huge prospects and somehow jettisoned the Vernon Wells albatross of a contract. Built a highly skilled team with younger players and fewer long-term deals. His trades have revamped the organization and positioned the team to compete with the Red Sox and Yankees in the short term.

Manager: John Farrell | Rank: Incomplete | Points: Incomplete

He has the skills and makeup to be incredibly successful. Was considered at one point to be on a management path, but will now lead the Blue Jays in a difficult division -- albeit one he knows well. Check back in October for a grade.

Blue Jays' composite score: 3 points*

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Owner: Peter Angelos | Rank: 4th | Points: 2
He's not the most popular owner in the world, and some even consider him the worst owner in baseball. The Orioles haven't been to a World Series since 1983 and have barely made a murmur in the past 15 seasons. Angelos spent a little dough on some "name" hitters this offseason, but is pretty content with just being old and rich.

General manager: Andy McPhail | Rank: 5th: Points: 1
Tread lightly here. His owner is a frugal 81-year-old man who just recently allowed McPhail to go out and get some "big" bats. McPhail has had the deck stacked against him, and he's also up against some other great GMs. He does own two World Series rings while with the Minnesota Twins.

Manager: Buck Showalter | Rank: 4th | Points: 2
He's a career .517 manager who led the Orioles to a 34-23 record last season. Showalter is an old-school coach with mixed results in previous stints with the Yankees, Diamondbacks and Rangers. He has set a new tone in Baltimore with early and positive results. Jury is still out on the Orioles, though.

Orioles' composite score: 5 points

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Owner: John Henry & Co. | Rank: 1st | Points: 5
Class act, second-to-none owners who have been front and center since their acquisition of the Red Sox. Henry and the ownership group brought two titles (2004, '07) to Boston and have invested heavily in the organization while developing the farm, improving Fenway Park and allowing baseball operations to do its job. MLB's model ownership group is committed to all aspects of franchise ownership.

General manager: Theo Epstein | Rank: 1st | Points: 5

He came along in 2004 and delivered the first World Series to Boston in 86 years. Since then, Epstein has secured another title and developed one of the best farm systems in baseball. Plays big market "Moneyball" and perennially has made the team competitive and flexible.

Manager: Terry Francona | Rank: 2nd | Points: 4
He has managed to win two titles in Boston, with five 95-win seasons in his seven years. He is a players' coach with a head for the modern game and might be the best in team history. Despite that, he is still referred to at times as "Francoma" for questionable decisions, particularly with his bullpen.

Red Sox's composite score: 14 points

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Owner: Stuart Sternberg | Rank: 3rd | Points: 3
He is a guy who some call a "carpetbagger." Others praise him for creating success under limited budgets. Is the attendance issue his fault? Time to move the team perhaps? He has rebranded the (Devil) Rays and brought in superior baseball minds. Sternberg splits the list at No. 3.

General manager: Andrew Friedman | Rank: 2nd | Points: 4
Nobody does more with less than him -- except maybe Billy Beane. Friedman has built a fantastic farm system and exploited market inefficiencies to create a club that competes with baseball's conglomerates. Tampa Bay won the AL East division on a 2010 Opening Day payroll of about $73 million. Friedman just needs some hardware.

Manager: Joe Maddon | Rank: 1st | Points: 5
He might be the best manager in all of baseball. Maddon is instinctive, can extract maximum value from players, understands and implements advanced metrics (maybe to a fault), and has unwavering support from his players.

Rays' composite score: 12 points

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Overall AL East ranking:
1. Boston (14 points)

2. Tampa Bay (12 points)

3. New York (10 points)

4. Baltimore (5 points)

5. Toronto (3 points*)

(*score incomplete due to first-year manager John Farrell)

So there you have it. The Red Sox have the highest-rated organizational leadership in the AL East. It comes as no surprise to us in the Boston area, but can it lead the Red Sox to their third World Series in eight seasons?

Darryl Johnston contributes to Fire Brand of the American League, a blog about the Boston Red Sox. You can follow him on Twitter.