ESPN MLB

Last year, You Can't Predict Baseball came up with bold predictions for the year. We had a lot of fun coming up with them, and then laughing at how hilariously wrong they were at the end of the year. This year, we're bringing these predictions to SweetSpot, along with explanations for some of them. Keep in mind, these predictions are supposed to be bold, but not insane -- even we know the Orioles aren't going to the playoffs in 2012.

Los Angeles Angels: Kendrys Morales stays healthy all year.

Houston Astros: Bud Norris is top five in K/9 in the NL. We figured something good had to happen to the Astros, right? Norris actually has a pretty nice career K/9.

Oakland Athletics: Yoenis Cespedes is their starting center fielder by Memorial Day.

Toronto Blue Jays: Brandon Morrow makes the jump to elite starting pitcher. He's struck out more than 10 batters per 9 innings two years running, though his ERAs have remained ugly. We think this is the year his results finally match the stuff, especially considering his declining walk rate.

Atlanta Braves: Julio Teheran has more wins than Tim Hudson.

Milwaukee Brewers: Rickie Weeks leads the team in home runs. He was fourth on the team last year, with 20. In front of him were Corey Hart with 26, Ryan Braun with 33, and Prince Fielder with 38. Fielder is gone, and for this prediction we'll assume Braun will miss a third of the year due to a suspension. It's not too bold to think Weeks could pass Hart in 2012.

St. Louis Cardinals: Carlos Beltran outproduces Albert Pujols from last year. Albert Pujols was great last year, but not quite best-player-of-his-generation Albert Pujols. If healthy, it's not absurd to think of Beltran outproducing Pujols' 5.1 WAR in 2011.

Chicago Cubs: Matt Garza isn't their best pitcher. It'll be Ryan Dempster, who had great peripherals but bad results last year.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Aaron Hill will be good again. He was great with them in limited time, and Arizona's park is quite hitter-friendly.

Los Angeles Dodgers: James Loney will be a top-three first baseman in the National League. Many thanks to Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness for somewhat alerting us to this one. We just decided to take it semi-absurdly far.

San Francisco Giants: Madison Bumgarner is their best pitcher. In terms of ERA, he already wasn't very far behind Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, and his K/BB ratio eclipsed theirs by quite a bit.

Cleveland Indians: They'll have the best pitching in the American League Central. We're banking on Ubaldo Jimenez, making a major comeback to something closer to what he was in 2010, and the rest of the staff displaying the good that they did in 2011. We're also counting on the Tigers' starters not being very impressive behind Justin Verlander, which is bold but not quite insane, and the pitching of the White Sox, Twins and Royals not being able to keep up with Cleveland's.

Seattle Mariners: Jesus Montero catches 100-plus games. The Mariners probably aren't going to compete, so why not try and play him where he'll accrue the most value?

Miami Marlins: Despite all their new acquisitions and the hype, they still finish fourth in the NL East. When you think about it, this one isn't so crazy. If Josh Johnson isn't healthy and maybe even if he is their pitching still trails that of Philadelphia, Washington, and Atlanta; even with Heath Bell, we don't think their bullpen is as good, either. Their offense might be better than some of those teams', but the Marlins were quite a bit below league average offensively last year and we're not sure how much Jose Reyes is going to make up for that.

New York Mets: Mike Pelfrey is the worst starter in the NL. Pelfrey's been pretty terrible two of the past three years, and now they're moving the fences in at Citi Field. He was far better in his huge home stadium, but we're guessing with the moved-in walls he'll be significantly worse at Citi. Here at YCPB, we actually don't think the Mets are going to be quite as dire as many are saying, even if they do come in last place in the NL East - but Pelfrey won't be a bright spot.

Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg has a 17-strikeout game.

Baltimore Orioles: Matt Wieters is the best catcher in the AL. A lot of people are so obsessed with Wieters not matching the hype that they didn't notice he became a plus offensive performer last year, to go along with very good defense. His taking the next step isn't that bold as predictions go, especially if Joe Mauer has to move off catcher.

San Diego Padres: Luke Gregerson is a top-three closer in the NL.

Philadelphia Phillies: Cole Hamels is their best starter. And this isn't meant to be a slight to Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee, but considering their ages and the fact that Hamels is pretty darn good himself, plus a possible boost from a contract year...

Pittsburgh Pirates: Charlie Morton is their All-Star.

Texas Rangers: Yu Darvish isn't their best starter -- but he's still good. And we think he'll be pretty good, we just think Derek Holland will become more consistently good, or Matt Harrison will put up numbers like his 2011.

Tampa Bay Rays: James Shields will have no complete games. Predicting someone to have no complete games might not seem bold, but it is when it's a guy who was known as "Complete Game James" last season. Shields did have 11 complete games in 2011, an almost unheard-of number these days, but he had no complete games in 2009 or 2010.

Boston Red Sox: No one hits 30 home runs. This might seem crazy when you consider their great offensive numbers last year, but only one player on their team hit 30 home runs and it was Jacoby Ellsbury with 32.

Cincinnati Reds: Brandon Phillips is the best second baseman in the NL.

Colorado Rockies: Jamie Moyer will have the best HR/9 on the staff.

Kansas City Royals: They reach .500. While their pitching won't be great, their offense will take a big step forward this year. Combined with the rest of their division being the Tigers and some dumpster fires, it's not that difficult to see it happening.

Detroit Tigers: They score fewer runs than they did in 2011. Yes, that’s even with Fielder. It's not improbable that Jhonny Peralta, Alex Avila and Delmon Young regress quite a bit from their numbers with Detroit last year, and that Prince Fielder's production "only" makes up for the offensive loss of Victor Martinez in 2012. They'll still have a very good offense, though.

Minnesota Twins: Joe Mauer hits 15 home runs.

Chicago White Sox: Robin Ventura gets ejected more times than Ozzie Guillen. Look at the state of the White Sox. We'd get ejected too.

New York Yankees: Hiroki Kuroda leads the team in ERA.

You Can't Predict Baseball is an affiliate of the SweetSpot network.

You'd think we'd know this by now: Scott Boras always gets his clients the money. Always.

But I don't believe anybody saw this deal coming. Prince Fielder has reportedly signed a nine-year, $214 million contract with the Detroit Tigers.

Speechless? Indeed. As dominant as Fielder is at the plate, as durable as he's been in the field, he's still a one-dimensional player. Yes, it's quite a dimension, but a guy who can't run and who doesn't play a premium defensive position with much acumen just signed the fourth-biggest contract in baseball history, behind only the two deals signed by Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols' $240 million deal this offseason with the Angels.

Crazy? Of course. Are Tigers fans going crazy today? Of course. (Vote on what you think of the deal at SportsNation.)

Sure, this deal wouldn't have been on the table had Victor Martinez not torn up his knee last week, knocking him out for the season, but let's take a quick look at what this might mean for the Tigers in 2012.

It's obviously not quite so simple to just make a direct head-to-head comparison on 2011 numbers. Martinez didn't play as much as Fielder and didn't spend all his time at DH. But while other Tigers designated hitters weren't as good as Martinez, the backup catchers in 2012 won't be as good as Martinez was in 2011. So we'll just call all that a wash and consider Fielder versus Martinez.

2011 Victor Martinez: 91 runs created, 389 outs made, 6.34 runs per 27 outs (595 PAs)
2011 Prince Fielder: 130 runs created, 423 outs made, 8.29 runs per 27 outs (692 PAs)

If we extrapolate Martinez's 2011 season to 692 plate appearances, we get:

Martinez: 106 runs created, 452 outs
Fielder: 130 runs created, 423 outs

In sabermetric analysis, every 10 runs is roughly equal to one win. So Fielder created about 24 more runs while using up 29 fewer outs. That's an extra game's worth of outs for the Tigers, or roughly an additional five runs. So under this very rough cut (leaving aside ballpark effects and so on) we're talking about 29 runs -- or three wins.

That spread may dampen some of the joy of Tigers fans, but Martinez was very good in 2011, hitting .330 with a .380 on-base percentage. Fielder certainly brings more power (38 home runs in 2011 versus Martinez's 12). One word of caution: Fielder did have a sizable home/road split in 2011, with 24 of his home runs coming at Miller Park; he had a 1.046 OPS at home versus .869 on the road. His splits haven't always been so severe, but he has hit better in Milwaukee and it's certainly plausible that the actual spread between Martinez and Fielder is even less than 25 to 30 runs. Anyway, here's how the Detroit lineup now shapes up:

CF Austin Jackson
RF Brennan Boesch
1B Miguel Cabrera
DH Prince Fielder
LF Delmon Young
C Alex Avila
SS Jhonny Peralta
2B Ramon Santiago/Ryan Raburn
3B Brandon Inge/Don Kelly

The nice thing about Fielder is he maintains a lefty/righty balance through the first seven spots in the order. The other big positive is it may cut down on the intentional walks Cabrera receives -- 22 last season. I imagine Cabrera and Fielder will split time at first base and DH. According to Baseball Info Solutions' defensive runs saved metric, Cabrera was minus-6 runs in 2011 while Fielder was minus-1. In 2010, Cabrera was minus-8 and Fielder minus-13. Neither of these guys is exactly Keith Hernandez. And, no, Cabrera cannot play third base like he once did with the Marlins, so get that out of your head.

Yes, this situation will create a logjam in 2013 when Martinez returns with two years and $25 million left on his contract. But I don't think Tigers owner Mike Ilitch cares one bit about 2013 or how much Fielder will weigh in 2020. The contract is certainly excessive and likely to be an albatross by the end of it, but if Fielder helps deliver a World Series title to the Tigers in 2012, I'm pretty sure Ilitch will take your criticism and stuff it inside the crust of one of his pizzas.

This is not the kind of January news we want to read about: Detroit Tigers designated hitter Victor Martinez tore his ACL during offseason workouts and may be lost for the season.

After signing Martinez to a four-year, $50 million contract before the 2011 season, the emergence of Alex Avila meant Martinez spent most of the season as the team's designated hitter as opposed to catching (he started 26 games behind the plate). The Tigers may have overpaid slightly for a DH, but Martinez at least delivered an excellent season, hitting .330/.380/.470, ranking fourth in the AL in batting average and eighth in on-base percentage.

Importantly, the switch-hitting Martinez provided a lefty bat in a lineup that swung too much to the right side with Miguel Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta, Delmon Young, Austin Jackson, Magglio Ordonez and Ryan Raburn.

If there's good news for the Tigers, there are at least several decent options out there in free agency. One-time Tigers first baseman Carlos Pena could provide a nice alternative, even improving the team's defense if Jim Leyland is willing to shift Cabrera to DH. Pena needs a platoon partner, but did have a .388 OBP and .504 slugging percentage against righties in 2011. Johnny Damon, another ex-Tiger, would also fit in nicely at DH.

The other option is to move Young to his best position -- DH. Getting his glove off the field would be addition by subtraction, and the Tigers could play an outfield of Jackson in center, Brennan Boesch in right, and Raburn and Andy Dirks or Clete Thomas platooning in left. Leyland is one of the best at moving players around the diamond and in and out of the lineup, so if anybody can adapt to a revolving lineup of starters, it's Leyland. Cuban free agent Yoennis Cespedes is another -- more expensive -- possibility. The Tigers have been linked to him from the beginning and they could certainly use more athleticism in the lineup. With Jackson entrenched in center, Cespedes (another right-handed bat) could play right with Boesch handling left.

Still, it's a blow for the Tigers -- although as the Cardinals proved in 2011 with Adam Wainwright, there is no such thing as a lethal blow. I do wonder if this makes it even more likely they'll swing a trade for another starting pitcher, as has been rumored. Matt Garza, anyone?

The American League Central may have a reputation as baseball's skinflint division, but such is not the case: The White Sox, Twins and Tigers each had payrolls over $100 million in 2011 and ranked in the top 10 of highest-salaried ballclubs.

The problem was that two of those three teams didn't get much for their money. Considering the issues in Chicago and Minnesota, and the youth and unwillingness to spend big in Cleveland and Kansas City, Detroit will enter 2012 as the heavy favorite to win the division -- no matter what happens in the offseason. But even the Tigers are far from a sure thing and if the Indians can get good health from Shin-Soo Choo and Grady Sizemore in 2012, plus strong seasons from youngsters Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall, their offense could be dramatically improved.

But that's getting ahead of ourselves. Here's a quick look at some action plans and items of interest for the five teams.

Detroit Tigers

1. Third base (Brandon Inge)

With Inge plummeting to a .197 average, Detroit's third-base production was among the worst in the majors. The team has already been linked to free agent Aramis Ramirez and trade discussions with Angels on Maicer Izturis. Both would be big upgrades over Inge, who still has one year remaining on his contract. The dark horse possibility: With Carlos Guillen ($13 million) and Magglio Ordonez ($10 million) off the books, the Tigers pursue Jose Reyes to fill their leadoff void, moving Jhonny Peralta to third base.

Likely solution: As much I love the Reyes idea, Ramirez to Detroit seems like a logical fit. The negatives are Ramirez's lack of range and Detroit's need for a little more athleticism in the lineup.



2. Middle relief

By the postseason, Jim Leyland was down to two relievers he trusted: Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit. Al Alburquerque had a strong rookie season out of nowhere and Phil Coke and Daniel Schlereth provide rare power lefty arms, but Albuquerque and Schlereth still have trouble throwing strikes. The Tigers could go after a low-cost veteran like LaTroy Hawkins, Mike Gonzalez or Darren Oliver, or maybe make a trade pitch for White Sox lefty Matt Thornton, although it seems unlikely Chicago would trade Thornton to a division rival.

Likely solution: A veteran righty-hander, with the Tigers counting on improvement from Coke and Schlereth.

3. A left-handed bat.

The Tigers missed Brennan Boesch's stick in the playoffs, as Victor Martinez and the hobbled Alex Avila were the only threats from the left side (granted, Don Kelly hit a big home run). Boesch's return will help, but Detroit could use a lefty bat to help balance out the lineup.

Likely solution: Andy Dirks may given another shot at that third/fourth outfielder job after hitting .251/.296/.406 as a rookie. But what about Rockies left fielder Seth Smith, who is on the trade block? His career .518 slugging percentage against righties has been bolstered a bit by Coors Field, but he's a solid hitter who could platoon with Ryan Raburn in left, or allow Raburn to play some at second base.

Cleveland Indians

1. Find a left fielder who can hit.

Michael Brantley is a decent asset -- but as a center fielder. The plan to use Brantley as an everyday left fielder was never a great one to begin with, as he's never going to pop many balls over the fence. Brantley, Austin Kearns, Shelley Duncan and Travis Buck all started at least 20 games in left; Jared Head started six games there. As a group, Cleveland's left fielders hit a miserable .233 with seven home runs; only Baltimore and Minnesota received a lower OPS from their left fielders.

Likely solution: Signing Grady Sizemore doesn't necessarily push Brantley back to a starting role in left field. He's best used as a fourth outfielder and Sizemore insurance. Michael Cuddyer may end up getting priced out of Cleveland's range, so how former Twins teammate Jason Kubel? He can play left and step in as designated hitter when Travis Hafner suffers his inevitable breakdown.

2. Find at least one more starter.

Right now, the Indians can only count on Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez for their rotation. Carlos Carrasco is out for the season following Tommy John surgery, Fausto Carmona was terrible and even Josh Tomlin is a question mark after the league caught up to him in the second half (5.26 ERA).

Likely solution: Jeanmar Gomez has been roughed up in two stints in the majors (146 hits in 116 innings), but his Triple-A numbers were solid, if unspectacular. He'll be given another chance in spring training to battle David Huff for a rotation spot.

3. If not Matt LaPorta, who plays first base?

The big prospect acquired in the CC Sabathia deal, LaPorta just hasn't hit as expected, posting a .299 on-base percentage in 2011. The Indians seem ready to punt on LaPorta, who turns 27 in January so isn't even that young. Carlos Santana ended up playing a lot of first base down the stretch, but let's hope he's kept behind the plate, where his hitting value would be maximized.

Likely solution: If free agent Carlos Pena lowers his price, he's a possibility, and the Indians reportedly talked with Houston about Brett Wallace. I'm not sure Wallace is much of an upgrade over LaPorta, but at least he's younger. Casey Kotchman could fit nicely here as lower-cost alternative after posting a .378 OBP with Tampa. And hey, he's only two years older than LaPorta.

Chicago White Sox

1. What do you do with Adam Dunn and Alex Rios?

Dunn hit .159 with a .569 OPS. Rios hit .227 with a .613 OPS. Dunn was the least-valuable position player in baseball, according to Baseball-Reference.com, while Rios was seventh-worst. They made $24 million in 2011 and will make a combined $26 million in 2012. Both are signed through 2014.

Likely solution: General manager Kenny Williams will be busy during the winter meetings, perhaps shopping around guys like Gavin Floyd, John Danks and Matt Thornton, looking for some sort of backup plan to these two pieces of junk. The 40-man roster currently includes Alejandro De Aza, who probably deserves a chance to play somewhere after a nice run (if over his head) last season. Let's put it this way: he can produce an OPS higher than .613.

2. Third base (Brent Morel)

After struggling all season, hitting .250 with just two home runs and seven walks in 328 at-bats through August, Morel suddenly changed his approach in September, got more patient and swung for the fences. He hit just .224 the final month, but with eight home runs and 15 walks. Was it a legitimate improvement, or merely feasting off September tired arms and rookie call-ups?

Likely solution: Morel's hot September earns him another shot.

3. The new manager

This isn't so much an action plan, as a big question mark. Robin Ventura has no previous managerial experience, but the good sign for the White Sox is that respected pitching coach Don Cooper is still around to handle the pitching staff.

Likely solution: If Dunn and Rios stink it up again, it won't matter how well Ventura transitions into the job -- he'll be doomed.

Kansas City Royals

1. Fix the rotation

The Royals had a 4.82 ERA from their starters; only Baltimore was worse in the American League.

Likely solution: The Royals already made a move here, trading Melky Cabrera to the Giants for Jonathan Sanchez. The club also re-signed Bruce Chen. With the signing of Jonathan Broxton, and the emergence of rookie relievers Greg Holland, Louis Coleman and Tim Collins in 2011, fellow 2011 rookie Aaron Crow will be given a shot at the rotation. I have my doubts it will work: Crow walked 31 in 62 innings out of the bullpen and left-handed hitters tagged him for a .311 average and .538 slugging percentage. There's a reason he struggled in the minors as a starter in 2010 (5.73 ERA). He has a great arm, but won't be able to rely on his fastball/slider combo as a starter.

2. Second base (Chris Getz)

Royals second basemen posted a .301 OBP and .636 OPS (26th in the majors) in 2011.

Likely solution: Rookie Johnny Giavotella played the final two months there and hit .247 with a .649 OPS. He'll head into spring training as the favorite to win the job. He hit .338/.390/.481 at Triple-A, so the batting potential is there: Bill James projects him to hit .295/.342/.419.

3. Center field (empty -- Cabrera traded)

The Royals were smart to deal Cabrera after his career season.

Likely solution: Lorenzo Cain, acquired from Milwaukee in the Zack Greinke trade, will finally get a chance to play after spending 2011 in Triple-A. Cain is old for a guy still considered a prospect -- he turns 26 in April -- so he should be a polished product by now. He showed some power for the first time in his career, hitting 16 home runs for Omaha while batting .312. He doesn't walk much, so won't be a star, but should come closing to matching Cabrera's 2011 production.

Minnesota Twins

1. The M & M boys

After 2011's train wreck -- the club's first 90-loss season since 2000 (and at 99 losses, the most the 1982 Twins lost 102) -- it seems pretty clear this team will be dead in the water again unless Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau get healthy and regain their All-Star status. But they also can't assume these guys are going to play 140-plus games.

Likely solution: Obviously, the Twins need a better backup plan for Mauer than giving .167-hitting Drew Butera 250 plate appearances. They already accomplished with the smart signing of Ryan Doumit to a one-year deal for $3 million. Doumit can catch or play right field, but his bat is good enough to warrant a regular place in the lineup even when he's not behind the plate. Of course, he's also been injury-prone throughout his career. Prospect Chris Parmalee, who impressed in a September call-up, gives the team a potentially decent backup option for Morneau as well.

2. Right field: Empty (Michael Cuddyer, free agent)

For all the attention Cuddyer is getting, let's remember that he's really just a complementary bat on a good team. Unfortunately, considering some of the other outfielders the Twins tried last season -- Rene Tosoni, Jason Repko, Trevor Plouffe -- you realize they had nobody in the upper levels of the system.

Likely solution: Doumit may factor into their plans here, but regardless, the Twins need another bat to play a corner or DH. Smith is a trade option and free agent Josh Willingham is another possibility.

3. Closer: Empty (Matt Capps and Joe Nathan, free agents)

Nathan signed with Texas while GM Terry Ryan recently told the St. Paul Pioneer Press that it's likely Capps could return.

Likely solution: Capps was terrible last year, allowing 10 home runs in 65.2 innings while striking out just 4.7 hitters per nine innings. Two years ago, he had a 5.80 ERA. I can't fathom why any team would want to make Capps its closer. Sadly, however, the rest of the Minnesota bullpen is nearly as uninspiring (as is the rotation, but I don't have room to get to them here), but Capps throws strikes and there's nothing the Twins love more than a pitcher who throws strikes (velocity are ability to miss bats don't seem to be a factor). There's no reason for this team to spend big money on one of the remaining free-agent closers, so it probably will be Capps or lefty Glen Perkins.

Here's the Cliffs Notes version of Game 3 of the ALCS:

1. Doug Fister is a good pitcher. I tried to tell this to everyone in the office today.

2. The Texas Rangers don't hit like the Texas Rangers when they're away from The Ballpark. I tried to tell this to everyone in the office today.

3. Even when the count is 0-2 on Miguel Cabrera, be careful, very careful. I didn't tell this to anyone.

4. Colby Lewis showed why he led the American League with 35 home runs allowed. I told this to somebody in the lunch line at the cafeteria.

5. We have a series! You know this.

When Jim Leyland rolled out a lineup that included Don Kelly hitting fifth and a slumping Alex Avila and Andy Dirks in right field, everyone started talking about how this series would be a sweep and that the Tigers just had too many injuries and the Texas bullpen is too dominant and my god Nelson Cruz can hit the ball a long way and the series may not even get back to Justin Verlander.

Sorry, but that just ignored too many aspects of baseball, including No. 1: A good pitcher can shut down any lineup. When Fister arrived in the majors with Seattle, he was an unheralded soft-tosser just filling in the rotation. But he throws harder now -- his average fastball velocity in 2011 jumped up 1.5 mph from last season (to 89.8), the second-biggest increase among major league starters. And he's been throwing even harder in September and October, averaging 91.1 on his fastball entering Tuesday's start. No, that's not Verlander territory, but he gets good movement and throws strikes. He scattered seven hits over his 7.1 innings, walking nobody and throwing 73 of his 102 pitches for strikes.

So while Hunter Pence and and Ubaldo Jimenez and Carlos Beltran sit at home watching on television, unheralded trade deadline acquisition Doug Fister rolls along, one of the key performers of this postseason.

As for the Rangers' lineup, they finished third in the AL in runs scored, just a few runs behind the Red Sox and Yankees. But a lot of that offense is the result of their hitting-friendly home park: On the road, they finished seventh in the league in runs -- scoring fewer than the Rays, Angels or Royals. They hit .296 and homered every 22.2 at-bats at home; they hit .269 and homered every 34 at-bats on the road (true, they do play a lot of road games in the pitcher-friendly parks in Anaheim, Oakland and Seattle). So it shouldn't be a surprise that Fister could shut down this lineup. Or that Rick Porcello could do the same thing in Game 4.

A key point in the game revolved around Cabrera's at-bat in the fifth inning. He came up with runners at first and third after Austin Jackson and Ramon Santiago had singled with two outs. The caveat here was that Victor Martinez may have injured himself on his home run the previous inning. He trotted slowly around the bases, slammed his helmet upon reaching the dugout and headed to the trainer's room. Had he pulled an oblique? Could he swing the bat? Was he on the on-deck circle merely as a decoy?

With a base open, the Rangers decided to pitch to Cabrera. Twitter erupted in surprise and mild disgust. As good as Cabrera is, Lewis did retire him his first two times up, on a strikeout and tapper back to the mound, so that may have factored into Ron Washington's decision. It's worth noting that Lewis is much worse against left-handed batters. And Lewis did get ahead two strikes, but Cabrera took an 0-2 outside fastball and lofted it deep into the right-field corner for a go-ahead double.

Sometimes you just have to give the hitter credit. In his next at-bat, Cabrera hit another 0-2 pitch into the left-field bleachers. How rare is that? Cabrera had five hits all season on an 0-2 count (5-for-34), none for home runs. It's a hard game to understand sometimes.

So we move on to Game 4. There are a few questions to ask: Will Washington move Michael Young (3-for-27, no RBIs in the postseason) down in the order? Will Jim Leyland move Jhonny Peralta up in the order? Is Martinez OK? Will the Rangers show more patience against Porcello? How will Joaquin Benoit and Jose Valverde do if they have to pitch for a third day in a row? But one questioned has been answered: This series is a lot more interesting than it was a few hours ago.

An impartial observer might take a snapshot of the American League Central and conclude that the race is an exercise in wheel-spinning. But that’s not entirely correct: The four teams at the top just have no idea if they’re coming or going.

The Twins were treated to a combination wedgie and noogie in a 20-6 loss to Texas on Monday and are now 47-55. But they seem strangely resistant to entertaining offers for free agent-to-be Michael Cuddyer, a solid righty bat, terrific clubhouse guy and crafty situational reliever in blowouts who might net them a decent prospect haul in return. It’s nice to be loyal and cling to hope based on some recent fast finishes, but you have to wonder if Twins general manager Bill Smith is missing an opportunity to capitalize on a valuable asset here.

The Indians, who beat the Angels 3-2 on a walk-off single by rookie second baseman Jason Kipnis, have an AL Central-best run differential of plus-2. They began the season at 30-15, but injuries to Shin-Soo Choo and Grady Sizemore and an overall lack of lineup depth have stalled their momentum and left fans wondering when the magic ends and the reality check begins. Meanwhile, GM Chris Antonetti continues to look for a bat on a limited budget.

The White Sox, the American League’s answer to the enigmatic Reds, are always a stinker away from an Ozzie Guillen expletive-fest. And general manager Kenny Williams, a guy who lives to make waves at the trade deadline, seems genuinely conflicted. Amid rumors that he’s talking to St. Louis about a deal for young outfielder Colby Rasmus, Williams appeared on ESPN Radio in Chicago and said he might “turn over the entire roster’’ if the White Sox don’t make a move here shortly.

That leaves us with the division leaders in Detroit, where Justin Verlander might or might not have enough help in the rotation to get the Tigers to the postseason, and GM David Dombrowski and manager Jim Leyland might or might not be on the spot with owner Mike Illitch in the final year of their contracts.

It was only fitting that when the Tigers and White Sox met in a big AL Central showdown Monday night at U.S. Celluar Field, all the division’s warts were on display. Between home runs by Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski, the Chicago crowd was treated to botched pop flies, a muffed pickoff, a near-collision between Juan Pierre and Alex Rios in the outfield and a wild pitch that careened off Pierzynski’s shinguard and was turned into an out at second base by reliever Jesse Crain.

The Tigers ran out four pitchers -- Duane Below, Chance Ruffin, Charlie Furbush and David Purcey -- with a combined 215 2/3 innings in the big leagues. The vast majority of those belong to Purcey. And White Sox starter Mark Buehrle, miracle of miracles, actually issued a leadoff walk in the fifth inning.

Is this any way to run a pennant race?

Take an informal survey of people in baseball front offices, and their predictions for the division generally fall along the same lines. Just about everyone favors Chicago’s pitching staff, but the White Sox are going to have a hard time winning if Adam Dunn (.159 batting average) and Rios (.301 slugging percentage, 23 RBIs) continue to look this pathetic at the plate. If Dunn plans to hit .200 this season, he better have some Ted Williams-caliber mashing in store for August and September.

Offensively, the Tigers win the Best in Show award. Detroit ranks fifth in the league in runs scored, and Miguel Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta, Alex Avila, Brennan Boesch and Victor Martinez all have an OPS north of .800.

The Tigers have been trolling for a front-end starter. But with Ubaldo Jimenez and James Shields pretty much un-acquirable, they might have to stand pat or settle for a back-end guy to complement their top four of Verlander, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello and Brad Penny.

It could be worse: Scherzer, although up-and-down this season, has generated a swing-and-miss percentage of 9.3 -- better than Matt Cain, Jered Weaver and David Price. And Porcello has quietly gone 4-0 with a 3.33 ERA in July. He’s still 22 years old, remember?

In a race this chaotic, the schedule can make a difference. While the Tigers are finished playing Boston and New York this season, the White Sox welcome the Red Sox and Yankees to Chicago for seven games starting Wednesday. As for the feisty Indians, they have 10 games against Boston, Texas and Detroit in early August. That’s their sink-or-swim stretch.

“It’s a weak division,’’ said a National League personnel man, “but I’ve liked the Tigers all year. Never underestimate a team with a good offense and an ace [starter]. You just don’t have long losing streaks.’’

And who cares about labels? Dunn can’t step to the plate these days without another out-of-town broadcaster referring to him as “the struggling Adam Dunn.’’ But as he told Yahoo! Sports in a recent interview, he still enjoys playing, “Even though I suck.’’

Say this for the Big Donkey: He’s come to the right place.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

In the age of new metrics for player performance, the RBI is mired in tough times. The snarkier analysts will chuck it out entirely as an unfortunate statistical footnote. It isn’t something you’d go to WAR for, after all, not when the analysis community is busily filling up the statistical toybox like every day was Christmas.

However, while belaboring what it ain’t, it’s important to remember what the RBI actually is: A plain old counting stat, and the legacy of original stathead Ernie Lanigan back from the start of the 20th century. It wasn’t Lanigan’s fault that subsequent generations started using RBIs as a value judgment, and confusing these simple facts with whether or not a hitter is clutch. Any discussion of who is or is not an “RBI Guy” is not about who possesses some ineffable quality of clutchiness, but it can still be about who has delivered a lot of clutch hits. Then again, I've always felt that “clutch” should be best thought of as an adjective, not a skill.

In baseball there’s still a readiness to talk about raw totals of RBIs. After all, Adrian Gonzalez is being hailed as an MVP candidate, largely because of a league-leading RBI tally. Prince Fielder is busily delivering on what Albert Pujols was supposed to in their walk years by leading the National League.

When you look at who wound up with the most RBIs in a season, it isn’t about how well a hitter does with his chances; it’s about the sum total of his opportunities. And one of the simple facts of life is that hitting in the middle of the order is going to give you those opportunities. Bat in the heart of the order, and you’ll get a lot of opportunities. As we’ll see, you don’t even have to be especially good at driving runners in to wind up with a lot of RBIs, as long as the manager keeps putting you in the middle of the order and you’re fortunate enough to have a teammate or three good at getting on base in front of you.

So with that in mind, let’s look at a different kind of leaderboard: Who’s doing the most with his opportunities, and converting the most runners into runs? Using a Baseball Prospectus stat called “Others Batted In,” we can find out who gets to bat with the most runners on base and who’s bringing them home. By way of explaining the table, PA w/ROB is Plate Appearances with Runners On Base, ROB is Runners On Base, OBI is Others Batted In, and OBI% is the percentage of men on base a guy has plated. I’m ranking by OBI% using 200 plate appearances as the cutoff.

Now, that’s a fun leaderboard. Justin Turner? Well, I guess it's another example of funny, in-season phenomena. While you might not bet on it continuing, facts is facts, ma’am, and the guy deserves his props. If Turner seems like an unlikely leader, though, keep in mind that among big-league regulars (using 500 PAs as a cutoff), David DeJesus was the best RBI guy of 2008, plating 21.5 percent of his runners. In 2009, it was Bobby Abreu with 19.8 percent. The all-time single-season leader via Retrosheet history was George Brett in 1980, when he drove in 26.9 percent of his runners. However you feel about RBI, that’s kind of cool, and not just because that goes back to a time I was a young A’s fan who dreaded every Brett at-bat.

A few guys who have long since earned and carry the “professional hitter” rep are on the leaderboard: Young and Martinez, of course. And it’s nice to have another reason to give Pence his due. Seeing an aging Chipper Jones still wreaking havoc helps make it clear that he really isn’t done yet. And Gonzalez is here, which is a nice reflection of the fact that he’s not just a product of his liberation from Petco or his presence in a lineup stacked with OBP threats. He’s just scary-good, and this is another way of seeing it.

Finding two NL Central tandems here is fascinating, but with Berkman and Holliday converting their opportunities, you can see how teammates have picked up Pujols, who was at a mediocre 14.1 OBI% before he hit the DL. Finding Fielder and Braun on the list is a reminder that not only does Fielder get the benefit of batting behind Braun, but that they’re both getting plenty of chances to bat with men on, thanks to a front-loaded Brewers lineup with Rickie Weeks and Nyjer Morgan batting in front of them. The guy with the second-most opportunities on the team is Casey McGehee, but his OBI clip of 12.4 percent is another symptom of a bad year, and he’ll get fewer chances now that he’s no longer batting fifth.

But Fielder’s presence also illustrates how players aren’t necessarily consistent in their OBI% from year to year. In 2010, Fielder drove in just 10.8 percent of his runners (or 51 of 474), a clip that only Alcides Escobar worsted among Brewers regulars. Again, this doesn’t make Fielder a bad person -- he just didn’t execute within Milwaukee’s offense in 2010. Since he’s been great this year and was at 18.7 percent in 2009, you can take this as another reason why you ought to just let the numbers speak for themselves.

Since I’ve bolded the leaders in the columns, if you’re wondering which batter has walked to the plate with the most runners on board this season, it’s Ryan Howard of the Phillies with 263. That’s despite the Phillies’ much-discussed offensive issues. So if you consider their ability to set up a big bopper, give credit where it’s due. Whatever their other problems, the Phillies have created a ton of opportunities for Howard, almost as many as the Red Sox have created for Gonzalez. That Howard has driven in “just” 48 runners, or 17.9 percent, is far from an indictment of his abilities as a play-maker -- it’s still a very good clip.

If opportunities essentially define the possibility for results when it comes to raw RBI tallies, thanks to the good folks at Retrosheet, let’s play a little game: Who holds the single-season record for runners on board when he steps to the plate? I’ll give you a hint -- it wasn’t from the PED Period. And it wasn’t a Yankee. And it wasn’t Ted Williams. That’s another hint, because it was Jackie Jensen in 1955 -- the guy who batted behind Ted Williams. Jensen batted with a record 576 runners aboard and drove in 90 for a decent 15.6 OBI%, but the voters wisely left Jensen behind Williams in another category -- MVP voting. Jensen wound up 10th and Teddy Ballgame finished fourth in a partial season.

To look at it in yet another way, in 2008 Justin Morneau set a record when he had the good fortune to get 400 plate appearances with runners on base; like Jensen, he was lucky enough to bat behind an even better player, Joe Mauer. By plating a fine 19.2 percent of those non-average joes on base, Morneau nearly won his second MVP award. Some folks might overrate him, and maybe Morneau has the heart of a lion or whatever, but on a more basic level this means he was good at executing within an offense lined up to give him his chances.

On some level we all get it. Maybe there’s an intuitive leap to make here. In talking about quarterbacks, do we talk about their completions or their completion percentage? Almost always the latter, but it’s sensible to talk about both. Somehow, in baseball, talking about opportunities in the context of driving in runners has never been fashionable. That could be attributed equally to the anti-stats crowd that sticks to the old-school info on the back of baseball cards and the statheads who grew up thinking RBIs were almost as icky as saves when it comes to statistical purity.

I’m among those who, perhaps like Lanigan back in the day, just thinks this sort of stuff is interesting to know. In the cases of Gonzalez or the Braun/Fielder combo, it’s a great way of revealing offensive machines who are punishing opponents again and again, and doing it in a less abstract way than the burgeoning family of sabermetric toys available to us today. Determining the RBI guys isn't particle physics, but you can associate it with something concrete: opportunities and events without value judgments.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

The Indians started 20-8. Royals phenom Eric Hosmer, the first tangible sign of the promised franchise revival in Kansas City, has two homers and five RBIs in his first eight major league games. Ozzie Guillen was tweeting from the White Sox locker room only moments after being ejected. The Twins are the traffic accident at which gawkers slow down and stare as they drive by. Through all of this, the Detroit Tigers have been merely the AL Central's back story. But that's changing.

On May 2, Detroit was overlooked and ignored as it sputtered to a seventh straight loss and a 12-17 start. The Tigers have lost just once since. Detroit has won seven straight and 10 of its past 11. A win tonight at Comerica Park in the first of a two-game visit from Toronto would be eight straight wins and match the Tigers' longest winning streak since 1984. Yes, THAT 1984. Detroit's year of Gibson, Morris, Trammell, Whitaker and Barbaro Garbey (couldn't resist.)

Clearly, the explanation for this Tigers' wake- up call begins with Justin Verlander. Then again, we should have seen this coming. Here from ESPN Stats & Info are Verlander's numbers in May over the past three seasons:

Starts: 15
W-L: 11-2
ERA: 1.99
SO-BB: 116-31
Opp. Avg: .170

In his past two starts, Verlander has allowed just two hits over 17 innings, but what makes Detroit's ace even more interesting is the different ways he's beating his opponents. In his no-hitter at Toronto, Verlander blew away the Blue Jays, coming just one walk away from a perfect game. He was untouchable, with an average fastball velocity of 97.3 mph. Verlander threw five pitches over 100 mph and all five came in either the seventh or eighth inning. Even his non-fastballs were power pitches: 23 sliders, the second-most he's thrown in a game over the past three seasons.

Last Friday, in his 3-1 win over the Royals at Detroit, Verlander changed his game plan: freezing Kansas City hitters waiting on those fastballs with kneebuckling curves. According to ESPN S&I, Verlander threw 24 curveballs among his 105 pitches, his highest percentage of curveballs in a start this season. Kansas City hitters were 0-for-8 on at-bats ending with a curveball, including four strikeouts.

Brad Penny used to be a power pitcher. No more. Penny signed a bargain free agent deal with Detroit: 1 year for $3 million with another $3 million in incentives. Through his first four starts, Penny was as far away from a performance bonus as a player could be, posting an 8.44 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. Over his last five starts, however, he's 4-1 with a 1.51 ERA and 0.93 WHIP.

Penny is now getting batters to hit pitches for outs. Over the course of the last few weeks, Penny has featured a new sinking two-seamer and it's working. FanGraphs lists Penny's O-Contact Percentage, which is the percentage of times a batter makes contact with the ball when swinging at pitches thrown outside the strike zone, at 82.8 percent, by far the highest of his career and a huge increase over the MLB average of 67.2 percent. Penny's percentage of strikes that were swung at and missed is only 4.4 percent, by far the lowest of his career and barely half the 8.4 percent average. Penny's K/9 ratio is down to 3.63, a significant drop from his 5.66 mark each of the previous two seasons. He's not missing any bats but he's creating pitch-to-contact outs.

Penny's contact percentage is 90.1 percent, by far the highest of his career and well above the league's 80.8 percent average but he's effectively letting his fielders behind him record the outs. Penny's BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is down to .251 this season, a huge improvement from his .326, .300 and .312 marks over the previous three seasons. He threw 15 groundball outs in Saturday's 3-0 win over the Royals. Opponents are hitting only .245 against Penny, a vast improvement over his .293 mark last year and his .267 career average.

Today, Max Scherzer faces the Blue Jays and attempts to improve his record to 7-0. Scherzer's 3.20 ERA is second among Tigers' starters only to Verlander and he's struck out 51 batters in 50 2/3 innings. Tuesday, Rick Porcello tries to match Verlander and Penny with his fourth win. No, it's not as sexy as the Phillies' Phab Four rotation but then again, those 1984 Tigers did not have a 20-game winner on their staff. This might be a modern-day version of Jack Morris, Dan Petry and Milt Wilcox.

The hitting has been there to support it as well. The Tigers have two of baseball's hottest bats. Victor Martinez is batting .468 over a 13-game hitting streak that includes two homers and 15 RBIs. Jhonny Peralta is batting .441 over a 10-game hitting streak with four homers and 11 RBIs. Miguel Cabrera's spring training alcohol issue has been a non-factor with Cabrera producing at a .309/.440/.540 clip with seven homers and 27 RBIs while Alex Avila is developing, both offensively and defensively, into one of the American League's best catchers.

Cleveland started 20-8 but has gone just 4-5 since. Detroit is 10-1 since May 2. While they're not the '84 Tigers, they still seem to have a little bit of Barbaro Garbey in them.

Follow Steve Berthiaume on Twitter: @SBerthiaumeESPN.

Crazy game this afternoon in Minnesota. The Tigers build a 5-2 lead as the red-hot Victor Martinez goes 3-for-3, including a home run off Scott Baker. Twins take a 6-5 lead in the bottom of the seventh when Jason Kubel launches a long three-run blast off Daniel Schlereth. But Jonny Peralta's two-run homer in the top of the eighth off Matt Capps puts the Tigers back on top ... only to see the Twins tie it. The big play came came in ninth when Brandon Inge lofted a fly ball to deep right-center with a runner aboard. Denard Span tracked it down, but might have hesitated as he sensed the wall. Should have been caught, but it fell for a triple and the Tigers win 9-7.

The Tigers have now won five in a row, the Twins have lost five in a row. Martinez has led the surge for Detroit, as he's hitting 571 (12-for-21) over those five games, with two home runs, five doubles and 13 RBIs. Suddenly, the Detroit lineup looks a little scarier than it did when Martinez was on the DL. With catcher Alex Avila hitting .280 and slugging .549, and second baseman Scott Sizemore posting .395 OBP in nine games since his recall from Triple-A, Detroit is finally scoring runs like many projected before the season.

The pitching has been better of late as well, with Max Scherzer undefeated at 6-0, with a 3.20 ERA. He hasn't been as good as the record indicates -- he's still walking four batters per nine innings and he's allowed eight home runs -- but he's developing into a solid No. 2 behind Justin Verlander. I still believe Rick Porcello is the key to this team, and after allowing 10 runs his first two starts, he's allowed two or fewer in each of his past five.

In other words, don't hand the AL Central to the Indians just yet.

As for the Twins, there is no delicate way to put this: It's a bad team right now, and until and unless Joe Mauer returns and Justin Morneau starts hitting, they can forget about 2011.

Follow David on Twitter: @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog: @espn_sweet_spot.

Both Central Divisions have their share of first-month flops. If you were to look at the AL Central’s standings, you might think they were making like the redcoats at Yorktown, marching to the beat of "The World Turned Upside Down." The NL Central is a below .500 mess, with the Cardinals the only team whose beaks are above that mark despite being two games worse than their expected record. However, slow starts can owe a lot to who’s been available, and Wednesday the Brewers, Tigers and Twins are all making significant moves.

The Brewers’ situation is straightforward enough as they get Zack Greinke back. Milwaukee manager Ron Roenicke did the smart thing and exploited the schedule to limit Greinke’s replacement, former Nats farmhand Marco Estrada, to just four starts (including Wednesday’s turn). Estrada exceeded expectations by delivering two quality starts in his first three games. It's a small sample, but one that reflects the rewards of hitting his spots low and away and (per Inside Edge data) using his changeup as a chase pitch. It might be hard to count on that forever, but with Greinke back the Brewers don’t need to. They get to bank Estrada's contributions and move on.

The Tigers getting Victor Martinez back is more a matter of outright need. The lack of offense from the outfield and DH slots is contributing to one of the worst team-wide Isolated Power marks in the league. It isn’t that Martinez will fix that all by himself. In his absence Alex Avila has been fine as a regular and the initial job-sharing arrangement that Dave Dombrowski had in mind behind the plate isn’t quite as important. Why hook one of the lineup’s better hitters to plug in another?

V-Mart’s return figures to eat into the playing time of those slack bats in the outfield/DH mix: Magglio Ordonez, Ryan Raburn, and Brennan Boesch. Until Raburn finds some patience, Boesch finds his power stroke, and Ordonez finds that hitting tool commonly referred to as a bat, Jim Leyland is going to be better off mixing and matching that trio while letting Avila continue to play.

For the Twins, the news goes from bad to worse now that Jim Thome is headed to the DL. Even if Thome wasn’t technically one of the starting nine when everyone’s healthy, he did figure to be one of the top 10 Twins in at-bats before season’s end. Even Thome was due to drop off from last season’s .362 True Average, falling almost 100 points to .273. That's a below-average clip for a first baseman or a DH, which should be up around .290. Whether you want to refer to ZiPS or PECOTA, Thome was projected to produce an ISO in the .240-.260 range, almost 100 points more than what they were getting from him.

Now Thome’s on the shelf, along with a full third of the starting nine: Joe Mauer, Delmon Young, and Tsuyoshi Nishioka. They’ve also had to deal with Justin Morneau's weak production -- blame his slow recovery from last year’s concussion, blame the lack of Cactus League at-bats, blame the weather, it still bodes ill. Mauer is at least swinging the bat, while Young is out on a rehab assignment, but in the meantime, don’t expect much power from who they have left.

A shortage of quality replacements exacerbates the issue. The Twins have little power to call up, and plugging Drew Butera, maybe the worst-hitting backup backstop in baseball, reflects this problem. Calling up speedster Ben Revere might be the most dramatic adaptation they could ask for, at least if you want to see Ron Gardenhire get back to a crew of latter-day piranhas. Projected for little power after delivering an .080 ISO in more than 1600 minor-league plate appearances, Revere has stolen bases at a 75 percent clip. Unfortunately, his walk rate has bounced around seven percent, so his ability to contribute depends on the vagaries of ball-in-play outcomes. In Young’s absence, plugging Revere into the outfield might inspire Gardenhire to compensate for his slugless offense with little-ball machinations and better defense with Revere’s center fielder’s range in left.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

Tigers designated hitter/backup catcher Victor Martinez may head to the DL after aggravating his groin during a second-inning at-bat Monday night in Seattle. The issue for the Tigers: Even though Martinez injured the groin while hitting, should he have been catching? Martinez had strained his groin on Saturday, but Jim Leyland said after the game that Martinez looked OK in pregame warm-ups. If he lands on the DL, he's out for two weeks and the Tigers lose a key hitter.

Three questions here:

1. The Tigers saved a roster spot by having Martinez serve as the backup to Alex Avila, but is this a smart move?

Answer: I say no. When Martinez is the DH, it leaves the team with no backup -- meaning Avila can never be pinch-hit or pinch-run for late in games, unless you want to insert the pitcher into the lineup. Considering Avila hit .182 against lefties in limited duty in 2010, you'd think Leyland would want some strategic options available.

2. Should Martinez ever catch?

Answer: I say no. Make him the regular DH, let him play every day and you've still created an asset for your team. American League DHs hit .252/.332/.426 last season and only four teams posted an OPS of .800. Martinez would be expected to outperform those numbers. Considering his ability to throw out runners (or lack thereof -- 14 percent in 2009, 21 percent in 2010), just let him hit.

3. Is Martinez's groin Detroit's biggest problem right now?

Answer: I say no. Leyland and GM Dave Dombrowski will have to make some tough decisions on two youngsters in the near future: Just how good are Austin Jackson (.164, 20 K's) and Rick Porcello (6.19 ERA, 25 hits in 16 innings)? Look, they'll keep playing these guys through May, but if they don't start producing, it may be time to look at some alternate options.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.

To this point, it's not been a great offseason for the Red Sox, who lost one of their best players when Victor Martinez signed with the Tigers. Here's Alex Speier on the (non-)move, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia's apparent ascendance:

So, why did the Sox balk?

Multiple Red Sox sources indicated they felt that, even with the strides that Martinez made this year to perform at a respectable level, he is unlikely to remain a viable everyday catcher for more than two more seasons. After that, he would likely be consigned to duty as a designated hitter and first baseman. When that happens, his value will drop precipitously.

That might explain why the Sox initially approached Martinez with a two-year offer during the season. His current production as a catcher would justify one of the richest contracts ever for a backstop. And this past year, his OPS ranked fifth in the majors among catchers.

But even his current production as a DH/first baseman would have been far more modest. His .838 OPS would have ranked 18th among DH/first basemen, just ahead of Jack Cust (a likely non-tender candidate by the A’s) and just behind Vladimir Guerrero (whose $9 million option was declined by the Rangers).

And that's really that. If Martinez can't (or won't be allowed to) catch, he's not worth the money the Tigers gave him. He's not really worth what the Red Sox supposedly offered him, either (three years, $36 million, or four and $40 million). But the Red Sox can afford to overpay a little.

Not a lot, though. Four years and $50 million is a lot if Martinez isn't catching regularly in the third and fourth years.

More to the point, the Red Sox understand a simple truth about free agents in their 30s: They're a great way to look foolish. If you make a list of the 100 worst moves in the last 30 years, you're going to find a few trades and a bumper crop of contracts given to free agents in their 30s.

Victor Martinez is almost 32. If he's not still playing brilliantly at 34 and 35, it's not a killer. Given MLB's ever-expanding revenues and the relatively modest, $12.5 million Average Annual Value (AAV) of the deal, it won't rank among the dozen worst contracts in the majors. It's just not the sort of thing you can do much of, and still expect to win almost every year. Which is why the Red Sox aren't doing it.

Meanwhile ... Jarrod Saltalamacchia? Sorry, but I'm not buying it. The good news is that a) Salty's a switch-hitter, and b) Salty's fared significantly better against right-handed pitchers, as a major leaguer. As it happens, there's a certain Red Sox captain who just happens to c) also be a switch-hitter, and d) fare somewhat better against left-handed pitchers. This certain someone is old and can't really throw, but he's been there forever and there are people in the front office who think the world of him.

A Saltamacchia/Varitek platoon (of sorts) next year won't give the Red Sox the production they got from Martinez this year. But it should be decent in the short term, while helping the franchise avoid a long-term mistake.

With Victor Martinez an All-Star, thanks to the players (and by the way whose brilliant idea was that, to let the players vote?), it's yet another great opportunity to wonder where Martinez will be in 2011. Nick Cafardo with the guts:

Earlier this season, it was easier to envision Martinez as the future designated hitter and backup catcher, but that was when David Ortiz was struggling. Now that Ortiz is hitting again, the Sox will have three rather large offseason decisions.

1) Do they pick up a $12 million option on Ortiz’s contract, or do they try to negotiate that down so he’s in line with the Hideki Matsui and Vlad Guerrero salaries, which are half that? 2) If Ortiz balks, do the Sox then sign Martinez long tm as a DH/1B/C? 3) What do they do with Adrian Beltre, who can also be a free agent. If Beltre goes elsewhere, that might open the door for Kevin Youkilis to go back to third and for Martinez to become the primary first baseman.

None of those decisions will be easy, and one can understand why Martinez’s situation hasn’t quite been settled yet.

Yes. One can.

You've got three important questions and all those moving parts, but fortunately the Red Sox have three things working for them: time, money, and intellectual capital.

The time will allow them to gather more data -- statistics, essentially -- that will inform every decision that's made.

The money will allow at least a small margin for error.

The intellectual capital will allow them to process -- as well as any organization in professional sports, I believe -- what the time and the data and the money mean, when all mashed up together.

None of which means everything will work out. They might make bad decisions anyway. They might make good decisions that wind up looking bad; there are a lot of moving parts, but not so many moving parts that playing the odds will necessarily lead to the desired outcome.

In the meantime, though, if I were a Red Sox fan I wouldn't be too worried about what happens after the season. Not when what happens this season still hangs very much in the balance.

For the Red Sox, the beat goes on.

[Victor] Martinez has a fractured distal phalanx, which is the bone on the tip of his thumb.

--snip--

Martinez didn't think he would go on the DL.

"By the time I got to the dugout, it was starting to get [swollen]. I couldn't put my hand in the glove. It was kind of painful," he said.

It sounds like that if the swelling goes down, Martinez could catch. But the question then becomes how well he could hit.

The Sox have catching issues. Mark Wagner and Dusty Brown are on the DL in Pawtucket. The catchers there are Gustavo Molina and Juan Apodaca. Luis Exposito is in Double-A.

Meanwhile, the injury-riddled Sox are 46-31 and alone in second place in the division.

I don't think we can identify when critical mass has been reached until after the fact. But with Jacoby Ellsbury, Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz, Dustin Pedroia, and Martinez out, doesn't this seriously impact the Red Sox' chances?

They're currently leading the league on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and (naturally) enough scoring. But will Kevin Youkilis, at 31, continue to enjoy the best season of his career? Will Adrian Beltre, at 31, continue to enjoy his best season (by a lot) since 2004? Can Jon Lester carry the rotation all by himself?

I'm ready to predict, right now, that the Red Sox won't finish ahead of the Yankees. I won't predict that the Red Sox fail to reach the postseason. But if the injury picture doesn't improve significantly between now and the All-Star break, that could change.

With the Red Sox falling to 18-17 with Wednesday night’s loss to Toronto, the Fenway faithful are growing ever more frustrated with the team’s journey to the cold, dark annals of the AL East basement.

There are no “ifs,” “ands” or “buts” about it: The team is frantically treading water -- if not outright drowning -- in need of both a spark and better personnel to reclaim its playoff hopes.

While individual players struggle on Boston’s squad every season, the imperfections of the 2010 Red Sox incarnation have been much harder to endure.

Victor Martinez is underachieving at the moment, though he can be expected to turn it around. Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury continue to work back from injury while Darnell McDonald and Jeremy Hermida admirably attempt to fill the void.

Fortunately, the Boston front office is too well managed and too intelligent to scapegoat a single player or staff member for the team’s woes (paging: Seattle and Alan Cockrell).

Unfortunately, there are serious, gaping holes in the team’s once-shimmering armor -- and one, in particular, has endured for two seasons now: the plight of David Ortiz.

With a .200/.274/.412 line through his first 85 at-bats, countless members of the Boston media have clamored for his benching, even hinting at his possible release.

And, at this point in the season, what other choice does Boston have? The internal options are few.

Triple-A Pawtucket has plenty of future major leaguers, but none who can be entrusted with the offensive requirements of a playoff-caliber designated hitter.

Buttressing the existing platoons already in place will help, but in lieu of this, the team’s best option seems to lie outside the organization.

The catch is, these precious few options are dwindling by the day.

Complicating matters are the unexpected hot starts of perennial cellar-dwellers, while the team’s affinity for hulking first basemen Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder make the search all the more arduous.

With their known preference for Fielder or Gonzalez as a long-term fix, Boston is limited to candidates who are both expendable to their trade partner while not interfering with the club’s ability to acquire either first baseman on or before their impending free agency in 2011.

This leaves few viable candidates.

(Read full post)