SweetSpot: Vladimir Guerrero
We ended a fine week of Baseball Today podcasts with Mark Simon and I talking about what happened the night before and previewing the weekend, and there was lots in between.
1. Josh Beckett didn’t make a lot of friends -- with his performance Thursday night or his comments afterward -- but what is his future with the Red Sox?
2. Staying in the AL East, the Toronto Blue Jays added a designated hitter to the fold, but can Vladimir Guerrero really make a difference? We might surprise you.
3. Our Simon Says segment discusses the viability of Bryan LaHair, and focuses on the defensive leaderboard.
4. Emailers want to know about pitching the eighth inning versus the ninth, the most common game scores, and Eduardo Nunez’s ability to play defense.
5. It’s a big weekend for the Angels as they face the Rangers, but we’ve also got our collective eyes on the big AL East battle for first place, and why number 8,000 is significant for an NL East team.
So download and listen to Friday’s Baseball Today podcast, and please have a great weekend!
1. Josh Beckett didn’t make a lot of friends -- with his performance Thursday night or his comments afterward -- but what is his future with the Red Sox?
2. Staying in the AL East, the Toronto Blue Jays added a designated hitter to the fold, but can Vladimir Guerrero really make a difference? We might surprise you.
3. Our Simon Says segment discusses the viability of Bryan LaHair, and focuses on the defensive leaderboard.
4. Emailers want to know about pitching the eighth inning versus the ninth, the most common game scores, and Eduardo Nunez’s ability to play defense.
5. It’s a big weekend for the Angels as they face the Rangers, but we’ve also got our collective eyes on the big AL East battle for first place, and why number 8,000 is significant for an NL East team.
So download and listen to Friday’s Baseball Today podcast, and please have a great weekend!
Blue Jays sign Guerrero; end of Lind?
May, 10, 2012
May 10
5:45
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Is it possible Vladimir Guerrero has enough left in his creaky knees to help the Toronto Blue Jays? Hey, it doesn't hurt to find out, so the Jays signed him to a minor league contract.
Vlad hit .290/.317/.416 last season for Baltimore, hardly inspiring numbers for a designated hitter, especially when you factor in the 23 double plays he grounded into.
The most realistic expectation is that Guerrero could provide a platoon bat at DH and a pinch-hitter off the bench. While his splits were pretty even in 2011, he did hit .338/.395/.536 against left-handers in 2010 when he was with Texas.
So far, however, the Jays have actually hit better against lefties than righties:
Blue Jays versus RHP: .232/.305/.387
Blue Jays versus LHP: .248/.330/.432
That doesn't mean there isn't room for improvement, most obviously by benching Adam Lind permanently against lefties. Lind is a career .217/.263/.345 hitter against left-handers. Basically, he should never start against a southpaw. If Guerrero shows he has something left, Edwin Encarnacion could move to first base with Guerrero moving into the DH slot. In fact, the Jays should think about permanently replacing Lind against all pitchers. He looked like a future star after his monster .932 OPS season in 2009, but he now has a .290 on-base percentage since and is off to .198/.283/.347 start. While he has popped 49 home runs the past two seasons (and three in 2012), you need more production from your first baseman.
If Guerrero is eventually added to the Blue Jays roster, the odd man out would probably be outfielder Ben Francisco. He and Rajai Davis both hit right-handed but Davis provides more speed and better defense. It seems unlikely the club would punt on Lind, who is making $5 million this year and $5 million next (with club options through 2016).
Vlad hit .290/.317/.416 last season for Baltimore, hardly inspiring numbers for a designated hitter, especially when you factor in the 23 double plays he grounded into.
The most realistic expectation is that Guerrero could provide a platoon bat at DH and a pinch-hitter off the bench. While his splits were pretty even in 2011, he did hit .338/.395/.536 against left-handers in 2010 when he was with Texas.
So far, however, the Jays have actually hit better against lefties than righties:
Blue Jays versus RHP: .232/.305/.387
Blue Jays versus LHP: .248/.330/.432
That doesn't mean there isn't room for improvement, most obviously by benching Adam Lind permanently against lefties. Lind is a career .217/.263/.345 hitter against left-handers. Basically, he should never start against a southpaw. If Guerrero shows he has something left, Edwin Encarnacion could move to first base with Guerrero moving into the DH slot. In fact, the Jays should think about permanently replacing Lind against all pitchers. He looked like a future star after his monster .932 OPS season in 2009, but he now has a .290 on-base percentage since and is off to .198/.283/.347 start. While he has popped 49 home runs the past two seasons (and three in 2012), you need more production from your first baseman.
If Guerrero is eventually added to the Blue Jays roster, the odd man out would probably be outfielder Ben Francisco. He and Rajai Davis both hit right-handed but Davis provides more speed and better defense. It seems unlikely the club would punt on Lind, who is making $5 million this year and $5 million next (with club options through 2016).
Kernels of Wisdom: Week in review
April, 14, 2012
Apr 14
1:48
PM ET
By Doug Kern, ESPN Stats & Information | ESPN.com
- Austin Jackson scored a run in each of the Tigers' first six games this season. That was the longest streak by a Detroit batter to start a season since Darrell Evans crossed the plate in each of the first eight contests in 1986. And it's the longest streak by a Tigers leadoff hitter since 1939, when one of Jackson's center field predecessors, Barney McCosky, also scored in the first eight games of the season. In game seven on Friday, however, Jackson was on base only once (he walked in the eighth) and was stranded at third.
- The Red Sox managed to blow a three-run lead in the ninth and a two-run lead in the 11th in losing a wild one to Detroit on Sunday, 13-12. It was the first time Boston had scored a dozen runs and lost since May 31, 1970, when they were on the wrong end of a 22-13 slugfest with the White Sox at Fenway.[+] Enlarge
Duane Burleson/AP PhotoAustin Jackson is having a solid season for the Tigers early on. - Alfredo Aceves gave up all three ninth-inning runs in Sunday’s game without retiring a batter, making him just the second Red Sox pitcher in the live-ball era to work zero innings pitched in each of his first two appearances of the year. Guido Grilli faced one batter each in the first two games of the 1966 season, and didn't get either of them out.
- The Tigers used eight pitchers in that 13-12, come-from-behind win over the Red Sox. It marked just the second time in 70 years that Detroit had come back to win a game in which their starter surrendered seven-plus runs without getting through the third inning. Omar Olivares was the starter in 1997 when the Tigers rallied to beat Baltimore 11-8.
- On Sunday, the Yankees managed just three hits -- all doubles. That same day, the Twins had just two hits as Jason Hammel posted the longest no-hit bid of the year so far. Both Minnesota knocks were doubles. It's the first time in almost three years that two teams have done that on the same day. But then … the Royals did it against Oakland (three hits, three doubles) on Monday … and the Athletics did it against Kansas City (one hit) on Tuesday.It's the first time since at least 1917 that there have been three straight days where a team had every hit be a double.
- On Sunday, Jeff Samardzija (making just his sixth career start) was afforded the chance at a complete game. He had to be pulled after giving up a two-out homer that pulled the Nationals to within a run. Four days later, Matt Garza was en route to a shutout against Milwaukee, but was pulled after committing a two-out error that allowed the inning to continue. So the Cubs had two pitchers this week leave the game after 8.2 innings pitched.The Cubs hadn't had two pitchers work exactly 8.2 innings in the same season since 1995 (Jaime Navarro and Frank Castillo).
- In Sunday's Cardinals-Brewers game, you could say the teams spread it around. In the 9-3 Milwaukee victory, the 12 runs were charged to eight different pitchers. In fact, every hurler who appeared in the game ended up with at least one earned run on his record.It's the first game in eight seasons where the teams combined to use eight or more pitchers, and every single one of them got charged with at least one earned run. The last time that happened was on Sept. 9, 2004, when the Royals erupted for a 26-5 victory over the Tigers in the first game of a doubleheader.
- James Shields got called for a balk Wednesday on an illegal pickoff throw to third. That was in the bottom of the fifth -- after Justin Verlander had been called for his own balk in the top of the fifth.It was the first MLB game to feature balks by both teams in the same inning since Aug. 16, 2004, when the Rangers' Mickey Callaway and then-Indian CC Sabathia committed them in the fourth inning of a 5-2 Texas win.
- In that same game, Verlander threw eight shutout innings before getting tagged for four runs and the loss in the top of the ninth. He became the first pitcher to throw eight scoreless innings, then surrender four (or more) runs in the ninth to take a loss since Tim Hudson did it for the Braves on Sept. 22, 2005. Hudson allowed a three-run homer to Shane Victorino of the Phillies for most of that damage before Macay McBride had to come in and get the final out.
- In Monday's Yankees-Orioles game, Derek Jeter went a perfect 4-for-4 for the visitors, while Matt Wieters went a perfect 4-for-4 in the home dugout. It was the first game this year to feature two players with four-hit games.Since the start of 2010, there's been only one other MLB game where a player for each team went a perfect 4-for-4 or better -- and it was between the Orioles and Yankees. On July 30, 2011, Vladimir Guerrero’s 4-for-4 was the bright spot for Baltimore as the Yankees -- led by Robinson Cano's 5-for-5 -- demolished them 17-3.
- In Yu Darvish's much-anticipated major league debut on Monday, he allowed five earned runs, four walks, hit a batter, threw one wild pitch -- and won the game because the Rangers spotted him eight runs.He's the first pitcher in the live-ball era to win his major league debut while giving up all of those stats (or worse). Even take away the wild pitch, and only one other hurler has hit five earned runs, four walks, one HBP and a win in his debut. That was the Blue Jays' Matt Williams on Aug. 2, 1983.
- Jeff Gray of the Twins earned the first one-pitch victory of the season on Wednesday. Gray threw his one and only pitch to Peter Bourjos to end the top of the seventh, after which the Twins took the lead in the bottom of the inning. The Twins, conveniently, recorded the last one-pitch win last season, by Matt Capps on Sept. 23.
- Speaking of pitching oddities, the Royals-Athletics game was finally called in the top of the eighth inning on Tuesday after its second rain delay. Aaron Crow, who had pitched the seventh for the Royals, was credited with his first career save. Technically, he does meet the save criteria set forth in the rule book, notably that of being the "finishing pitcher" in a game his team won.The last player to be credited with a save prior to the ninth inning was Tony Sipp of the Indians, who received one in a rain-shortened affair with Tampa Bay on July 23, 2010. That also remains Sipp's only career save.
- On Tuesday, Freddy Garcia of the Yankees famously threw five wild pitches to tie the single-game American League record for such a thing. He was also the first pitcher to throw five-plus wild pitches in an outing of less than five innings. But two of those wild pitches scored runs for Baltimore. Another run scored on an error. That made the Orioles the first team in two years to score four-plus runs with one or fewer RBI. (The one RBI they did get came on a home run.)For the Orioles, it was just the second time since moving to Baltimore that they scored four runs on one or zero RBI. The other was in their inaugural year: On June 27, 1954, they scored three times on errors by the Athletics before finally walking off on an RBI single in the bottom of the 11th.
- Oakland "walked off" in unusual fashion on Wednesday when Jonathan Broxton plunked Yoenis Cespedes and Jonny Gomes to force in the winning run in the bottom of the 12th. It was the first game to end with back-to-back hit batters since Sept. 2, 1966, when Stu Miller of the Orioles hit Al Weis and Tommie Agee of the White Sox in the bottom of the 11th. (I admit that Elias found this a lot quicker than I would have.) However, Gomes became the first Athletics batter to get hit by a pitch with the bases loaded in extra innings since at least 1947. (It had never happened in the Baseball Reference "play index" era.) It's also noteworthy that Oakland scored its two runs in the 12th without a base hit. The three runners ahead of Cespedes reached on two walks and an error.
- Before Friday, there had been 36 double-digit strikeout games by teams this week (including seven games where both teams did it) but not one by a single pitcher. Max Scherzer's 11-strikeout outing on Friday afternoon broke that string.
- In Wednesday's 17-8 eruption between the Giants and Rockies, there were four pitchers (Tim Lincecum, Jeremy Guthrie, Guillermo Mota, Jeremy Affeldt)who all gave up at least six hits and at least five runs. It's the first time that that has happened since July 17, 1998, when Seattle dropped an 18-5 score on the Royals at the Kingdome.(It is also very intriguing that, in that game, both teams posted a seven-run inning. Except I don't know of a good way to search line scores.)
By the way, on their next two games on Thursday and Friday, the Giants promptly had two pitchers (Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain)carry no-hit bids into the sixth inning. The only team to have bids in consecutive games last season was also the Giants. That happened on May 8 and 10 by Ryan Vogelsong and Lincecum. - The Orioles and Blue Jays combined to hit seven home runs in Baltimore's 7-5 victory on Friday. All were solo shots. It's the first game with seven-plus home runs that were all solo since a July 20, 2010 game at Camden Yards between the Rays and Orioles.
- There's always one guy left out.In the 10-9 "pitchers’ duel" between the Twins and Angels on Thursday, 17 of the 18 starters recorded at least one base hit. Howard Kendrick was the lone collar, going 0-for-4 plus a walk.
It's the first nine-inning game this season to have 17 different starters record a base hit. There were three games last season where all 18 did. - Minnesota got a four-hit game from Denard Span and three-hit games from Joe Mauer, Josh Willingham and Danny Valencia. It's the first time the Twins have had four players with three hits, including at least one with four, since they dropped a 20-1 score on the White Sox on May 21, 2009.
Pablo Sandoval's hot/cold zones from each side of the plate.
Click here to create your own Sandoval heat maps
Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval is the heir apparent to Vladimir Guerrero and Ichiro Suzuki as the best bad-ball hitter in baseball. (Or maybe it's Salvador Perez.)
Sandoval’s bad-ball success was a huge key to his final 2011 numbers. He finished with a .328 batting average and 11 home runs in at-bats that ended with a pitch judged to be out of the strike zone by baseball’s Pitch F/X system.
Sandoval’s batting average ranked second-best in the majors and his homer total led the majors. It was a huge jump from his 2010 production, as noted in the chart on the right. Sandoval had the same number of hits against out-of-zone pitches in 2011 as he did in 2010. But he made 58 fewer outs.
At the top of this piece are heat maps, which show Sandoval’s bad-ball success from both the left and right sides.
See that big red patch off the outside corner in the image on the left? That’s a valuable area to Sandoval. It was worth 32 hits to him in 2011.
The one issue for Sandoval last season, one in which his defense improved significantly as well, was that he only played in 117 games. If he can maintain this kind of production for a full season, he could be an MVP candidate at year’s end.
What’s next for Sandoval in 2012? You tell us. Share your thoughts in the comments section.
Salvador Perez: The new Vlad Guerrero?
February, 29, 2012
Feb 29
12:00
PM ET
By Mark Simon | ESPN.com
Salvador Perez had 18 hits against pitches out of the strike zone last season.
Click here to create your own Perezheat maps
"The first time I laid eyes on Sal, it took me about two days to realize he was special. I’ve been in this game a long time. I’ve seen hundreds of catchers come through and I’ve never seen one like him. He’s a very, very rare find."
--Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost on Salvador Perez
The Royals signed their 21-year-old catcher to a five-year contract worth $7 million, a deal that also includes three club options that could keep Perez in Kansas City through 2019. Perez didn’t quite have the splash or pizzazz of a debut like Brett Lawrie, but he made the most of his 39 games in the major leagues.
While Perez showed himself to be a free swinger, he was a very effective one, hitting .331 with 13 extra-base hits in 148 at-bats.
Perez swung at 40 percent of the pitches thrown to him outside of the strike zone. That’s a very high rate, comparable to the likes of Vladimir Guerrero and Pablo Sandoval.
But it is an approach that worked. Perez had 18 hits on pitches that were judged by MLB’s Pitch F/X system to be out of the strike zone.
The image atop this article shows the pitch locations for those hits. He hit pitches when he was jammed. He hit them when he had to reach out. He hit them when they were high. He hit them when they were low.
That’s a lot of hits in a small amount of time.
Pro-rate that to 120 games and Perez would have ranked in the top five in the majors on out-of-the-strike zone base hits.
Perez’s defensive skills are also highly heralded, and were part of the reason for Yost’s excitement. Royals pitchers were 19-20 in his 39 starts and their 4.23 ERA and .251 opponents batting average with him behind the plate were considerably lower than Kansas City’s other catchers -- Matt Treanor (4.64/.268) and Brayan Pena (4.49, .278).
But for Perez to draw comparisons to any of baseball’s top catchers, he’s going to have to hit, too.
Will opposing pitchers figure out how to exploit his free-swinging ways? Or will Perez develop into the kind of hitter his manager thinks he’ll be? You tell us. Share your thoughts in the comments section.
Have we seen the last of Vladimir Guerrero?
January, 18, 2012
Jan 18
12:28
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Jed Jacobsohn/Getty ImagesVlad Guerrero gave his fans plenty of reasons to smile through the years, with 449 career home runs.He turned out to be a pretty good prize.
He became my favorite player in the majors, as much for his awesome numbers as his unique style of play. At times, he'd seemingly swing at anything, yet his hand-eye coordination was so good he could still put the ball in play, whether the pitch was a foot outside or a slider in the dirt. This often worked against him, of course, but from 1997 through 2008 he hit .323, including 12 consecutive seasons with a .300-plus average. He was one of the few players to hit without batting gloves, and his helmet became a glorious, sticky, pine-tar mess. He'd take such a big cut it appeared he was swinging a sledgehammer, and it would leave him all twisted up in gymnastic gyrations.
In the field, he possessed one of the strongest arms in the game, although he was as likely to throw a ball into the dugout as nail a runner at third base. On the bases, he had that big lumbering stride that made him look like he was running in mud, but had surprising speed early in his career.
He left the Expos after the 2003 season and signed with the Angels, winning the AL MVP Award his first season in Anaheim. He finished third in the MVP vote in 2005 and 2007. But he was starting to lose his speed, had a bad back. The Angels let him walk after 2009 and he signed with the Rangers. He hit .300 with 29 home runs with Texas and it was great to finally see him play in a World Series. It was sad, however, watching him play right field in Game 1 when he committed two errors and looked terrible. He was old, a 35-year-old in a 50-year-old body.
He played with Baltimore in 2011 and while he hit .290, the reality is that he didn't provide much value. He hit just 13 home runs in 562 at-bats, grounded into 23 double plays and drew just 17 walks. The man who once led the AL four consecutive seasons in intentional walks was no longer feared; among major league regulars, only Yuniesky Betancourt had a lower walk rate. And that's basically who Guerrero has become, except he can't play the field. No team needs a player like that.
Since teams carry 12 or even 13 pitchers these days, there just aren't many teams willing or able to carry a DH-only player, especially one who no longer provides 25-plus home runs and gets on base at a good clip. The only regular DHs in 2011 were Guerrero, David Ortiz, Hideki Matsui, Victor Martinez and Johnny Damon, and even Damon played some left field and Martinez started 32 games in the field. If you go around the AL, I just don't see a team where Guerrero fits, even the Tigers, who just lost Martinez for the season.
I hope Guerrero signs somewhere, but if this is the last we've seen of Vlad the Impaler, it's been a wonderful ride.
Correction: As a reader pointed out, Billy Butler was also a full-time DH in 2011, starting 142 games there for the Royals. The Indians also had Travis Hafner, although injuries limited him to 85 games.
In the spirit of the season with Hispanic Heritage Month, let’s take a look at the all-time best players of Latin descent for each of the American League teams.
Baltimore Orioles: Mike Cuellar of Cuba. Cuellar only had an eight-year run in Baltimore, and arrived well after he’d turned 30, but the O’s saw a workhorse, and innings and wins are what they got. Cuellar became the first Latin pitcher to win the Cy Young Award when he split it with Denny McClain in 1969 -- his first year as an Oriole. He went on to notch 143 wins during his time in Baltimore, and also delivered WAR seasons worth 2.5 wins or more in five of his first six seasons.
Boston Red Sox: Pedro Martinez of the Dominican Republic. When you can count Manny Ramirez and Luis Tiant among the runners-up, you know you’ve got a full field, but three Cy Young awards and a career 2.52 ERA for the Red Sox over seven seasons during the age of injection-enabled offense puts Pedro on a plane all his own.
Chicago White Sox: Minnie Minoso of Cuba. In his various stints with the White Sox, the Cuban Comet managed to miss the team’s lone pennant in 1959, but the vast majority of his career value (42.7 WAR) came from his the nine seasons in his first two incarnations with the Sox (1951-57, 1960-61); there were three more yet to come. There’s room for an honorable mention for Venezuelan shortstop Luis Aparicio (31.5 WAR), but like Minoso, he spent chunks of his career in other unis.
Cleveland Indians: In another full field, you could pick Venezuela’s Omar Vizquel or Mexican-American Mike Garcia; Garcia was a rotation regular for the 1950's Tribe, and he’s a reasonable choice for the 32.4 WAR, 3.27 ERA and 142 wins he gave them. However, his value on the mound was essentially equal to Manny Ramirez’s 32.8 WAR he produced with his bat in almost eight seasons with the Indians. Surprising nobody, Manny’s WAR numbers go down when you count his defense, but that production at the plate puts the Dominican immigrant among the 10 most productive Indian bats of all time.
Detroit Tigers: It might be cause for surprise, but the Tigers are one of the very few teams from among the league’s original eight who have yet to boast a long-term Latin star. Venezuela’s Miguel Cabrera has only just become the franchise’s first Latin player to accumulate 20 career WAR with the Kitties, and he still hasn’t spent half of his career in Detroit. One man worthy of an honorable mention is Willie Hernandez, for his MVP- and Cy-winning 1984 season, but the Motor City was the Puerto Rican Hernandez’s third stop, and his career didn’t make it to the ’90s.
Kansas City Royals: It’s been so long since Carlos Beltran of Puerto Rico played for the Royals that you might forget he was almost every bit the MVP-caliber player there as he’d get more recognition for in Houston and New York. His 2003 season (7.3 WAR) rates among the 10 greatest seasons by a Royals position player, a list that has five different George Brett seasons and four other guys besides Beltran on it. Before the season, you might have wanted to lean towards Mexico’ Joakim Soria, but a bumpy 2011 was enough for me to play wait and see.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: The Angels’ roster has been characterized by so much turnover historically that it’s been hard for anyone to settle in and pile up big career totals as a Halo, something that only recently changed with Tim Salmon and Garret Anderson. So while Vladimir Guerrero of the Dominican Republic has played less than half of his career in Anaheim, he’s pretty much by his lonesome for spending so much of his productive career there.
Minnesota Twins: One of the other reasons tabbing Vladi as an Angel was necessary is because Panama’s Rod Carew did most of his damage during his long career with the Twins. If you remember the fleet-footed old man for his 3,000th hit at the end of his career back in 1985, you might remember him as an Angel, but more than 2,000 of those hits came hitting in the frosty confines of Minnesota’s old Metropolitan Stadium, as unlikely a landing spot for a youngster from the Canal Zone as you might imagine.
New York Yankees: You might fidget over Lefty Gomez, who was Portuguese and Spanish on his father’s side and all-Californian enough to merit the nickname “Goofy,” and Dominican Alex Rodriguez and Puerto Rico’s Jorge Posada would be easy choices in other organizations. But with almost 56 WAR contributed to one pinstriped contender after another, the man who has delivered the most career value is Panama’s Mariano Rivera.
Oakland Athletics: It’s important not to forget that Reggie Jackson claims Hispanic heritage on his mother’s side, but the key player from the Big Green Machine of the ’70s who deserves a shoutout here is Cuba’s Bert Campaneris. With 649 career steals, Campy leads all Latin ballplayers while ranking 14th overall, and his 43.1 career WAR suggests how much value he added in the field as well as on the bases.
Seattle Mariners: Perhaps no player more perfectly captures Puerto Rico’s complicated relationship with the United States than Edgar Martinez, who was born in New York City but grew up on the island. Whatever label you care to apply, anyone can take pride in the definitive DH’s career after he hit .312/.418/.515 while producing 66.9 WAR at the plate.
Tampa Bay Rays: With an existence that doesn’t even stretch back two full decades yet, it might be premature to tab an all-time great Latin Ray, but Dominicans Carlos Pena and Julio Lugo lead the pack of notables, with Cuba’s Rolando Arrojo leading the pitchers.
Texas Rangers: Ivan Rodriguez’s career may well be winding down, and he might be a decade removed from his last full season in Arlington, but Pudge has been the pride of Puerto Rico as the greatest position player in Rangers history, topping all Texas players with 48.6 WAR. He’s long since punched his own ticket to Cooperstown.
Toronto Blue Jays: As one of the first franchises to truly invest in Dominican talent, it should come as no surprise that some of the best ballplayers in Blue Jays history came from the island: infielder Tony Fernandez, slugger George Bell and pitcher Juan Guzman. But the Jays also came away with a ton of talent from Puerto Rico, starting with Carlos Delgado and Roberto Alomar. If you go by WAR, it should be Delgado, but Alomar’s Gold Glove-studded career as a fielder is one of the great causes for debate over the strengths and limitations of both scouting and statistical analysis of defense. For the purposes of this sort of exercise, let’s give the new Hall of Famer his due and tab Alomar.
On Friday, we’ll turn to the National League and give the 16 greats of those franchises their props.
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.
Baltimore Orioles: Mike Cuellar of Cuba. Cuellar only had an eight-year run in Baltimore, and arrived well after he’d turned 30, but the O’s saw a workhorse, and innings and wins are what they got. Cuellar became the first Latin pitcher to win the Cy Young Award when he split it with Denny McClain in 1969 -- his first year as an Oriole. He went on to notch 143 wins during his time in Baltimore, and also delivered WAR seasons worth 2.5 wins or more in five of his first six seasons.
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/ Jim RogashPedro Martinez won at least 14 games in six of his seven seasons with the Red Sox.
AP Photo/ Jim RogashPedro Martinez won at least 14 games in six of his seven seasons with the Red Sox.Chicago White Sox: Minnie Minoso of Cuba. In his various stints with the White Sox, the Cuban Comet managed to miss the team’s lone pennant in 1959, but the vast majority of his career value (42.7 WAR) came from his the nine seasons in his first two incarnations with the Sox (1951-57, 1960-61); there were three more yet to come. There’s room for an honorable mention for Venezuelan shortstop Luis Aparicio (31.5 WAR), but like Minoso, he spent chunks of his career in other unis.
Cleveland Indians: In another full field, you could pick Venezuela’s Omar Vizquel or Mexican-American Mike Garcia; Garcia was a rotation regular for the 1950's Tribe, and he’s a reasonable choice for the 32.4 WAR, 3.27 ERA and 142 wins he gave them. However, his value on the mound was essentially equal to Manny Ramirez’s 32.8 WAR he produced with his bat in almost eight seasons with the Indians. Surprising nobody, Manny’s WAR numbers go down when you count his defense, but that production at the plate puts the Dominican immigrant among the 10 most productive Indian bats of all time.
Detroit Tigers: It might be cause for surprise, but the Tigers are one of the very few teams from among the league’s original eight who have yet to boast a long-term Latin star. Venezuela’s Miguel Cabrera has only just become the franchise’s first Latin player to accumulate 20 career WAR with the Kitties, and he still hasn’t spent half of his career in Detroit. One man worthy of an honorable mention is Willie Hernandez, for his MVP- and Cy-winning 1984 season, but the Motor City was the Puerto Rican Hernandez’s third stop, and his career didn’t make it to the ’90s.
Kansas City Royals: It’s been so long since Carlos Beltran of Puerto Rico played for the Royals that you might forget he was almost every bit the MVP-caliber player there as he’d get more recognition for in Houston and New York. His 2003 season (7.3 WAR) rates among the 10 greatest seasons by a Royals position player, a list that has five different George Brett seasons and four other guys besides Beltran on it. Before the season, you might have wanted to lean towards Mexico’ Joakim Soria, but a bumpy 2011 was enough for me to play wait and see.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: The Angels’ roster has been characterized by so much turnover historically that it’s been hard for anyone to settle in and pile up big career totals as a Halo, something that only recently changed with Tim Salmon and Garret Anderson. So while Vladimir Guerrero of the Dominican Republic has played less than half of his career in Anaheim, he’s pretty much by his lonesome for spending so much of his productive career there.
[+] Enlarge
AP PhotoRod Carew spent 12 seasons with the Minnesota Twins.
AP PhotoRod Carew spent 12 seasons with the Minnesota Twins.New York Yankees: You might fidget over Lefty Gomez, who was Portuguese and Spanish on his father’s side and all-Californian enough to merit the nickname “Goofy,” and Dominican Alex Rodriguez and Puerto Rico’s Jorge Posada would be easy choices in other organizations. But with almost 56 WAR contributed to one pinstriped contender after another, the man who has delivered the most career value is Panama’s Mariano Rivera.
Oakland Athletics: It’s important not to forget that Reggie Jackson claims Hispanic heritage on his mother’s side, but the key player from the Big Green Machine of the ’70s who deserves a shoutout here is Cuba’s Bert Campaneris. With 649 career steals, Campy leads all Latin ballplayers while ranking 14th overall, and his 43.1 career WAR suggests how much value he added in the field as well as on the bases.
Seattle Mariners: Perhaps no player more perfectly captures Puerto Rico’s complicated relationship with the United States than Edgar Martinez, who was born in New York City but grew up on the island. Whatever label you care to apply, anyone can take pride in the definitive DH’s career after he hit .312/.418/.515 while producing 66.9 WAR at the plate.
Tampa Bay Rays: With an existence that doesn’t even stretch back two full decades yet, it might be premature to tab an all-time great Latin Ray, but Dominicans Carlos Pena and Julio Lugo lead the pack of notables, with Cuba’s Rolando Arrojo leading the pitchers.
Texas Rangers: Ivan Rodriguez’s career may well be winding down, and he might be a decade removed from his last full season in Arlington, but Pudge has been the pride of Puerto Rico as the greatest position player in Rangers history, topping all Texas players with 48.6 WAR. He’s long since punched his own ticket to Cooperstown.
Toronto Blue Jays: As one of the first franchises to truly invest in Dominican talent, it should come as no surprise that some of the best ballplayers in Blue Jays history came from the island: infielder Tony Fernandez, slugger George Bell and pitcher Juan Guzman. But the Jays also came away with a ton of talent from Puerto Rico, starting with Carlos Delgado and Roberto Alomar. If you go by WAR, it should be Delgado, but Alomar’s Gold Glove-studded career as a fielder is one of the great causes for debate over the strengths and limitations of both scouting and statistical analysis of defense. For the purposes of this sort of exercise, let’s give the new Hall of Famer his due and tab Alomar.
On Friday, we’ll turn to the National League and give the 16 greats of those franchises their props.
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.
Five MVPs who won with big final month
September, 13, 2011
9/13/11
6:35
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
In reality, every game counts the same. A win in September isn't more important than a win in April. A home run in September isn't worth more than a home run in May. When it comes to the MVP voting, however, a big final month can put a player over the top in a close race. This season is no different. If Curtis Granderson has some big moments down the stretch and the Yankees hold on to their AL East lead, that could be a difference-maker for him over Jacoby Ellsbury or Justin Verlander or Jose Bautista. Likewise, if Ellsbury has a hot final two weeks and the Red Sox catch the Yankees, maybe that gives him in an edge.
Here are five guys who cleaned up in September and won the MVP Award as a result:
1. Vladimir Guerrero, 2004 Angels
Gary Sheffield, Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz had similar hitting statistics to Guerrero's final .337/.391/.598 line. They all made the playoffs ... but not in dramatic fashion like the Angels, who entered the final series of the season tied with Oakland for first place. The Angels won the first two games to clinch the division. In the clinching game, Guerrero hit a two-run homer off Barry Zito in the sixth to tie the game at 2. His final line for the month: .363/.424/.726, with 11 home runs and 25 RBIs in 28 games.
2. Jason Giambi, 2000 A's
With the A's fighting the Mariners for the AL West title, Giambi had a monster September: .396/.536/.844, with 13 home runs and 32 RBIs. The A's went 22-7, won the division by a half game (the Indians also missed the playoff by one game). In a tight race, Giambi had carried his team, and he edged out Frank Thomas of the White Sox and Alex Rodriguez of the Mariners in the MVP vote.
3. Chipper Jones, 1999 Braves
Chipper hit .307 with 10 home runs and 23 RBIs the final month, with 22 walks and only 11 strikeouts. But it was the memorable series against the Mets that crystallized his MVP status for many voters. The Braves and Mets were battling for the NL East title with 11 games remaining when they met for a three-game series. In Game 1, Jones hit two solo homers, including the game-winner in the bottom of the eighth inning, and the Braves won 2-1. The next night, he hit a two-run homer in the first and the Braves won 5-2. In Game 3, trailing Al Leiter 2-1 in the fifth, he blasted a three-run homer. The Braves won 6-3 and went on to capture the East crown. Chipper hit .319/.441/.633 that year, but they were other strong candidates. Mike Piazza had 40 homers and 124 RBIs for the Mets; Jeff Bagwell had 42 homers, 126 RBIs and 143 runs; Mark McGwire hit 65 home runs and drove in 147; Sammy Sosa hit 63 home runs. But none of them had that September moment and Chipper ran away with the vote.
4. Ken Caminiti, 1996 Padres
Caminiti hit .326 with 40 home runs and a 1.028 OPS, but that was nothing unusual in the NL in 1996: Eight guys hit at least 40 homers and five had an OPS higher than a 1.000. So why did Caminiti win unanimous MVP honors? The Padres were battling the Dodgers for the NL West flag and he hit .375/.465/.750 the final month, including nine home runs and 23 RBIs. In the season's final series, the Padres entered trailing the Dodgers by a game, but Caminiti went 4-for-4 with a game-tying homer in the eighth and go-ahead double in the 10th. The Padres won and swept the series to win the division. That final moment pushed Caminiti over the top.
5. Willie Stargell, 1979 Pirates
The beloved veteran leader of the "We Are Family" Pirates hit only .222 for the month, but did deliver eight home runs and 18 RBIs in September. Most importantly, he came up big against the Expos, who the Pirates ended up beating out by two games for the division title. On Sept. 18, before more than 56,000 fans at Olympic Stadium, Stargell cranked a game-winning two-run homer off Dale Murray in the 11th inning. On Sept. 25, the Expos led the Pirates by a half-game. Stargell hit a two-run homer off Scott Sanderson in the bottom of the first and homered again in the fourth. The Pirates won 10-4, won again the next night and the division was theirs. In the MVP vote, Stargell's numbers didn't compare to Keith Hernandez (they ended up tied) or other candidates like Dave Winfield, but his leadership and big September home runs gave him the extra credit he needed.
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.
Here are five guys who cleaned up in September and won the MVP Award as a result:
1. Vladimir Guerrero, 2004 Angels
Gary Sheffield, Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz had similar hitting statistics to Guerrero's final .337/.391/.598 line. They all made the playoffs ... but not in dramatic fashion like the Angels, who entered the final series of the season tied with Oakland for first place. The Angels won the first two games to clinch the division. In the clinching game, Guerrero hit a two-run homer off Barry Zito in the sixth to tie the game at 2. His final line for the month: .363/.424/.726, with 11 home runs and 25 RBIs in 28 games.
2. Jason Giambi, 2000 A's
With the A's fighting the Mariners for the AL West title, Giambi had a monster September: .396/.536/.844, with 13 home runs and 32 RBIs. The A's went 22-7, won the division by a half game (the Indians also missed the playoff by one game). In a tight race, Giambi had carried his team, and he edged out Frank Thomas of the White Sox and Alex Rodriguez of the Mariners in the MVP vote.
3. Chipper Jones, 1999 Braves
Chipper hit .307 with 10 home runs and 23 RBIs the final month, with 22 walks and only 11 strikeouts. But it was the memorable series against the Mets that crystallized his MVP status for many voters. The Braves and Mets were battling for the NL East title with 11 games remaining when they met for a three-game series. In Game 1, Jones hit two solo homers, including the game-winner in the bottom of the eighth inning, and the Braves won 2-1. The next night, he hit a two-run homer in the first and the Braves won 5-2. In Game 3, trailing Al Leiter 2-1 in the fifth, he blasted a three-run homer. The Braves won 6-3 and went on to capture the East crown. Chipper hit .319/.441/.633 that year, but they were other strong candidates. Mike Piazza had 40 homers and 124 RBIs for the Mets; Jeff Bagwell had 42 homers, 126 RBIs and 143 runs; Mark McGwire hit 65 home runs and drove in 147; Sammy Sosa hit 63 home runs. But none of them had that September moment and Chipper ran away with the vote.
4. Ken Caminiti, 1996 Padres
Caminiti hit .326 with 40 home runs and a 1.028 OPS, but that was nothing unusual in the NL in 1996: Eight guys hit at least 40 homers and five had an OPS higher than a 1.000. So why did Caminiti win unanimous MVP honors? The Padres were battling the Dodgers for the NL West flag and he hit .375/.465/.750 the final month, including nine home runs and 23 RBIs. In the season's final series, the Padres entered trailing the Dodgers by a game, but Caminiti went 4-for-4 with a game-tying homer in the eighth and go-ahead double in the 10th. The Padres won and swept the series to win the division. That final moment pushed Caminiti over the top.
5. Willie Stargell, 1979 Pirates
The beloved veteran leader of the "We Are Family" Pirates hit only .222 for the month, but did deliver eight home runs and 18 RBIs in September. Most importantly, he came up big against the Expos, who the Pirates ended up beating out by two games for the division title. On Sept. 18, before more than 56,000 fans at Olympic Stadium, Stargell cranked a game-winning two-run homer off Dale Murray in the 11th inning. On Sept. 25, the Expos led the Pirates by a half-game. Stargell hit a two-run homer off Scott Sanderson in the bottom of the first and homered again in the fourth. The Pirates won 10-4, won again the next night and the division was theirs. In the MVP vote, Stargell's numbers didn't compare to Keith Hernandez (they ended up tied) or other candidates like Dave Winfield, but his leadership and big September home runs gave him the extra credit he needed.
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.
Who delivers from the cleanup spot?
August, 11, 2011
8/11/11
12:59
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Ryan Howard is tied for second in the majors with 91 RBI. He has also come to bat with the second-most runners on base of any hitter. Adrian Gonzalez is first in both categories. Does that mean he's a good "RBI guy," or a merely a good hitter driving in a lot of runs because he has a lot of runners on base?
Cleanup hitters are expected to drive in runs. But opportunity is important. If you're hitting behind Jacoby Ellsbury (.369 on-base percentage) and Dustin Pedroia (.402 OBP), you're going to get more chances than if you're hitting after Ichiro Suzuki (.310 OBP) and Brendan Ryan (.322 OBP).
One way to measure the effectiveness of a cleanup hitters is to simply measure the percentage of runners driven. I looked at the 17 hitters who have batted at least 250 times in the cleanup spot this season. Here are the percentages of runners on base that they knocked in (totals are for all plate appearances, not just while batting cleanup), taken from Baseball Prospectus:
Ryan Howard: 18.1 percent (31st among all hitters with at least 250 plate appearances)
Troy Tulowitzki: 17.3 percent (44th)
Matt Kemp: 17.5 percent (38th)
Prince Fielder: 18.4 percent (23rd)
Miguel Cabrera: 14.9 percent (97th)
Carlos Lee: 16.1 percent (71st)
Vladimir Guerrero: 11.1 percent (200th)
Kevin Youkilis: 17.4 percent (40th)
Adam Lind: 14.5 percent (110th)
Paul Konerko: 16.9 percent (51st)
Alex Rodriguez: 17.4 percent (41st)
Carlos Santana: 13.0 percent (157th)
Josh Willingham: 16.1 percent (70th)
Adrian Beltre: 19.2 percent (12th)
Matt Holliday: 20.1 percent (5th)
Aramis Ramirez: 16.6 percent (57th)
Neil Walker: 19.1 percent (13th)
For the most part the spreads aren't that large (although Guerrero hasn't certainly failed to drive in runs -- and sure enough, while he's hitting .275 overall, he's hitting .228 with runners in scoring position).
But you may have noticed another problem here: By just tracking runners on base, it doesn't account for where those runners were on base. Certainly a runner on second is a better RBI opportunity than a runner on first.
There's another major flaw with using this method of evaluation -- it doesn't account for walks. Take Cabrera, for example. According to this statistic, he's only the 97th-best "RBI guy" in the majors. Here's the thing though: He's hitting .373 with runners in scoring position and .348 with men on base. But pitchers will pitch around him whenever possible. With runners in scoring position, Cabrera has had just 102 at-bats, but 31 walks (giving him a .507 on-base percentage), meaning he draws a walk more than 20 percent of the time when a runner is already in scoring position. You think pitchers fear Cabrera?
Compare that to Howard, who has 132 at-bats with runners in scoring position and just 21 walks. (Howard is actually hitting .311 with runners in scoring position). Howard may have 20 more RBI than Cabrera, but it's all a matter of opportunity and how often pitchers challenge you. Or compare to Beltre, who is hitting only .254 with a .296 OBP with runners on base. He also had more RBI than Howard, but rarely draws a walk, meaning overall he's not that productive with runners on, even though he has 76 RBI.
In the end, this is just further evidence of why you shouldn't place much emphasis on a hitter's RBI total. It's simply a tally of something that happened, not a good tool to analyze a hitter with.
Cleanup hitters are expected to drive in runs. But opportunity is important. If you're hitting behind Jacoby Ellsbury (.369 on-base percentage) and Dustin Pedroia (.402 OBP), you're going to get more chances than if you're hitting after Ichiro Suzuki (.310 OBP) and Brendan Ryan (.322 OBP).
One way to measure the effectiveness of a cleanup hitters is to simply measure the percentage of runners driven. I looked at the 17 hitters who have batted at least 250 times in the cleanup spot this season. Here are the percentages of runners on base that they knocked in (totals are for all plate appearances, not just while batting cleanup), taken from Baseball Prospectus:
Ryan Howard: 18.1 percent (31st among all hitters with at least 250 plate appearances)
Troy Tulowitzki: 17.3 percent (44th)
Matt Kemp: 17.5 percent (38th)
Prince Fielder: 18.4 percent (23rd)
Miguel Cabrera: 14.9 percent (97th)
Carlos Lee: 16.1 percent (71st)
Vladimir Guerrero: 11.1 percent (200th)
Kevin Youkilis: 17.4 percent (40th)
Adam Lind: 14.5 percent (110th)
Paul Konerko: 16.9 percent (51st)
Alex Rodriguez: 17.4 percent (41st)
Carlos Santana: 13.0 percent (157th)
Josh Willingham: 16.1 percent (70th)
Adrian Beltre: 19.2 percent (12th)
Matt Holliday: 20.1 percent (5th)
Aramis Ramirez: 16.6 percent (57th)
Neil Walker: 19.1 percent (13th)
For the most part the spreads aren't that large (although Guerrero hasn't certainly failed to drive in runs -- and sure enough, while he's hitting .275 overall, he's hitting .228 with runners in scoring position).
But you may have noticed another problem here: By just tracking runners on base, it doesn't account for where those runners were on base. Certainly a runner on second is a better RBI opportunity than a runner on first.
There's another major flaw with using this method of evaluation -- it doesn't account for walks. Take Cabrera, for example. According to this statistic, he's only the 97th-best "RBI guy" in the majors. Here's the thing though: He's hitting .373 with runners in scoring position and .348 with men on base. But pitchers will pitch around him whenever possible. With runners in scoring position, Cabrera has had just 102 at-bats, but 31 walks (giving him a .507 on-base percentage), meaning he draws a walk more than 20 percent of the time when a runner is already in scoring position. You think pitchers fear Cabrera?
Compare that to Howard, who has 132 at-bats with runners in scoring position and just 21 walks. (Howard is actually hitting .311 with runners in scoring position). Howard may have 20 more RBI than Cabrera, but it's all a matter of opportunity and how often pitchers challenge you. Or compare to Beltre, who is hitting only .254 with a .296 OBP with runners on base. He also had more RBI than Howard, but rarely draws a walk, meaning overall he's not that productive with runners on, even though he has 76 RBI.
In the end, this is just further evidence of why you shouldn't place much emphasis on a hitter's RBI total. It's simply a tally of something that happened, not a good tool to analyze a hitter with.
As we all recover from a terrific sports weekend, Mark Simon and I discuss pertinent baseball matters on Monday’s Baseball Today podcast, led by these topics:
1. The Boston Red Sox finally scored and the overmatched Tampa Bay Rays finally lost, but in the end we discuss a tweet from Joe Maddon.
2. Are the Rays buyers or sellers with less than two weeks to the trading deadline? We delve through some of the interesting teams and their needs.
3. If it’s Monday then it’s time for Power Rankings, and as always we differ on the top team. I’ve got a sub-.500 team in my top 10!
4. Asdrubal Cabrera keeps showing up in the Web Gems portion of "Baseball Tonight," but would you believe he’s not actually having a great defensive season?
5. We talk baseball clichés, percentage of doubles for overall hits and whether All-Star selections matter for Hall of Fame consideration. If you’ve forgotten, send emails to baseballtoday@espnradio.com.
Plus: Jim Thome goes really, really deep, we look ahead to Monday’s schedule and we wish Nolan Ryan good health, all in Monday’s Baseball Today podcast!
1. The Boston Red Sox finally scored and the overmatched Tampa Bay Rays finally lost, but in the end we discuss a tweet from Joe Maddon.
2. Are the Rays buyers or sellers with less than two weeks to the trading deadline? We delve through some of the interesting teams and their needs.
3. If it’s Monday then it’s time for Power Rankings, and as always we differ on the top team. I’ve got a sub-.500 team in my top 10!
4. Asdrubal Cabrera keeps showing up in the Web Gems portion of "Baseball Tonight," but would you believe he’s not actually having a great defensive season?
5. We talk baseball clichés, percentage of doubles for overall hits and whether All-Star selections matter for Hall of Fame consideration. If you’ve forgotten, send emails to baseballtoday@espnradio.com.
Plus: Jim Thome goes really, really deep, we look ahead to Monday’s schedule and we wish Nolan Ryan good health, all in Monday’s Baseball Today podcast!
I have to think one of the most difficult decisions a manager has to make is when to tell a veteran star he is moving down in the lineup ... or is being relegated to part-time duty ... or is not playing at all.
Sometimes the player makes the decision himself. Mike Schmidt and Ken Griffey Jr. walked away in the middle of seasons. Sometimes the manager might be tied down by the status of the player, reminding me of an old Earl Weaver quote, “No promises. None. If you don’t make any promises, then you won’t break any. Don’t back yourself into a corner.”
How much longer before the managers of these struggling veterans will feel backed into a corner?
Magglio Ordonez, Tigers: After going 0-for-4 on Monday, Maggs is hitting .151 with one extra-base hit and one RBI in 73 at-bats. His one RBI came on a grounder to shortstop. This isn’t a slump; this is a career crisis. He is 37 and has battled injuries, but the career .310 hitter hasn’t hit less than .290 since his rookie season and hit .303 in 2010. Jim Leyland has kept Ordonez in the No. 3 spot all season. He’s also kept Austin Jackson in the leadoff spot all season. I don’t want to say Leyland is asleep at the helm, so I’ll just say he apparently has more confidence in these guys than I do. As one Tigers blog penned after Ordonez got the day off Sunday, “Don Kelly hits third, Jim Leyland declared genius.” Can you tell the Tigers are in a long losing streak? As for Ordonez, his line-drive percentage on balls in play is 20 percent, right at his career norm of 20.3, so it appears he’s hitting into a lot of bad luck, as indicated by a .172 average on balls in play. He’ll break out of it almost any day. I’m almost sure of it.
Aubrey Huff, Giants: Huff went 0-for-3 Monday, dropping his season line to .190/.257/.290 (BA/OBP/SLG), as the Giants were shut out by Tom Gorzelanny and Drew Storen. It was the third shutout in less than a week for the Giants, after 2-0 and 3-0 losses to James McDonald and Jason Marquis. Not exactly like getting blanked by Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. Huff’s numbers are down across the board from his big 2010: walk rate down slightly, strikeout rate up slightly, line-drive percentage down, ground ball percentage up. All the trends are negative and, at 34 years old, cause for major concern. Brandon Belt has been playing the outfield in Triple-A, but he might want to keep his first-base glove close by.
Vernon Wells, Angels: The Angels’ left fielder hit a two-run homer in the eighth inning off Dan Wheeler in a 9-5 loss to the Red Sox, raising his season totals to .172/.218/.267 with two home runs. Wells isn’t too concerned with his slow start, tweeting, “I love how people panic after two weeks of the season. Never panic, always persevere! Too blessed to be stressed.” Of course, he tweeted that April 17. Wells has some major red flags brewing: His line-drive percentage before Monday’s game was 7.7 percent -- well below his career norm of 18.3 percent, indicating his sub-.200 average on balls in play isn’t all bad luck. It’s also worth noting that while Wells hit 31 home runs last season, he was one of many Blue Jays to benefit from the friendly air conditioning at Rogers Centre; he hit just .227/.301/.407 on the road. At 32, he’s the youngest guy on this list, but he looks like a much older athlete to me, with declining speed and a few extra pounds. Call-me-crazy prediction: Wells will not exercise his right to opt out of his contract after this season. (Only three more seasons, Angels fans.)
Raul Ibanez, Phillies: ESPN Insider looked at Ibanez
Vladimir Guerrero and Derrek Lee, Orioles: The two vets showed signs of life in Monday’s 6-2 loss to the White Sox, combining for five hits, including Lee’s second home run. Vlad the (former) Impaler has long been one of my favorite players, but it’s painful to see him hacking away these days. He’s hitting .274 -- which also happens to be his on-base percentage, as he’s yet to draw a walk. He’s connected for four home runs, but with three GIDP, Vlad might join that elusive more-double-plays-than-walks club, entered in recent seasons by the likes of Miguel Tejada, Ivan Rodriguez and A.J. Pierzynski. At 35, Lee is a year younger than Guerrero, and his home run lifted his line to .248/.325/.333. His BABIP is actually more than .300, so his main problem has been a high strikeout rate and lack of power when he does connect. Maybe he’ll warm up with the weather.
"Maybe." I’m sure countless managers have thought that through the years, waiting for the vets to heat up with the summer. Sometimes they do.
And sometimes the bat remains a millisecond too slow.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Christopher Hanewinckel/US PresswireAs America celebrated its troops Monday, so too did the San Diego Padres.Stroll through the stats: Young 1B hitting
May, 2, 2011
5/02/11
1:40
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
April is in the books. May is here ... and so is our weekly stroll through the stats.
- Ike Davis had a solid rookie season, but I wasn't completely sold on his star potential. But the Mets first baseman is hitting .317/.398/.564 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage), including .318 with three of his five home runs at home.
- Justin Smoak did not have a solid rookie season despite his prospect pedigree, but he's living up to the hype in 2011, hitting .273/.387/.506. As Seattle's lone power threat, he's going to start seeing a lot of pitchers out of the strike zone that he'll need to show the discipline to lay off.
- Nice to see Brett Wallace hitting .382 for the Astros. Wallace was the 13th pick of the 2008 draft by the Cardinals, traded to the A's in the Matt Holliday deal, flipped to Toronto for Michael Taylor, then shipped to Houston for Anthony Gose. His 2010 debut with Houston was beyond bad, as he hit .222 with 50 strikeouts and eight walks in 159 PAs. Astros fans don't have much to cheer about these days, but Wallace is looking more like the hitter he was projected to be coming out of Arizona State. The home run power isn't there (one so far), but he's hit nine doubles.
- Since moving into the No. 2 spot in the Reds' lineup, ahead of Joey Votto, Jay Bruce has three home runs in six games.
- Brooks Conrad's flare to right field in the bottom of the ninth gave the Braves a 6-5 victory over the Cardinals on Sunday -- the fifth walk-off loss for St. Louis and its seventh loss after leading in the seventh inning or later. No other team has more than four such defeats.
- The Twins are hitting .230/.292/.324 and rank last in the AL in runs, batting average and slugging percentage. Nick Nelson breaks down some of the Twins' struggles. My favorite Twins line comes from catcher Drew Butera, who's hitting .106 in 50 PAs. Since 1980, the lowest average for a non-pitcher with at least 50 PAs is actually another Twins catcher: Tom Nieto hit .067 (4-for-60) for the 1988 Twins.
- The Vlad Watch: 108 PAs, no walks.
- Joaquin Benoit had a 1.34 ERA for the Rays in 2010, prompting the Tigers to sign him to a three-year, $16.5 million contract -- one of the biggest ever for a middle reliever, one with a 4.47 career ERA. After giving up three runs on Sunday, Benoit has allowed 11 runs already -- one more than all of 2010. Moral of the story: Never read too much into 60 fluke-ish innings.
- Jered Weaver looks to go 7-0 for the second time in his career in Monday's start against the Red Sox. According to Elias, only two other pitchers have won their first seven starts of a season -- Sadie McMahon, who did it in 1891 and 1895 for the Orioles, and Hall of Famer Mickey Welch, for the New York Giants in 1884 and '85. So, yes, it's been a while.
- Pitchers with at least five starts who have had a quality start each time: Weaver, Dan Haren, Justin Verlander and Josh Johnson (six each); and Michael Pineda, Jason Marquis and Josh Tomlin (five each).
The Vlad watch: No walks for Guerrero
April, 25, 2011
4/25/11
10:59
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Vladimir Guerrero has to come to bat 83 times this season and has drawn zero walks. Now, Vlad has always been more Kirby Puckett than Barry Bonds when it comes to his selectivity, but he did once draw 84 walks in a season (with the help of 32 intentional freebies).
GuerreroBut now that his bat has slowed and pitchers don't fear him like they once did, Guerrero is hacking away like never before. Obviously, he's on pace for zero walks, and maybe he can become just the 25th player since 1900 to get 500 plate appearances and walk 10 or fewer times.
The most PAs while drawing so few walks belong to Art Fletcher, a shortstop for the 1915 New York Giants, who came to the plate 599 times and drew just six walks. Despite his free-swinging ways, Fletcher was actually a decent hitter for his era and started on four World Series teams -- although the Giants lost all four series.
The most recent players in the 500/10-or-less club were Ivan Rodriguez and Tony Pena in 2007. Pena was moved to pitcher. But maybe Vlad can join Pudge as the only MVP winners on this list.
Fletcher joins Shawon Dunston and early 1900s second baseman Hobe Ferris as the only two-time members. Dunston was a truly amazing non-walker: From the ages of 30 to 39 he walked just 66 times in over 2,700 plate appearances.
Ozzie Guillen makes this list for his 10-walk season in 1996 -- and just misses three other times, with seasons of 11, 12 and 12.
(Research via Baseball-Reference.com's Play Index.)

The most PAs while drawing so few walks belong to Art Fletcher, a shortstop for the 1915 New York Giants, who came to the plate 599 times and drew just six walks. Despite his free-swinging ways, Fletcher was actually a decent hitter for his era and started on four World Series teams -- although the Giants lost all four series.
The most recent players in the 500/10-or-less club were Ivan Rodriguez and Tony Pena in 2007. Pena was moved to pitcher. But maybe Vlad can join Pudge as the only MVP winners on this list.
Fletcher joins Shawon Dunston and early 1900s second baseman Hobe Ferris as the only two-time members. Dunston was a truly amazing non-walker: From the ages of 30 to 39 he walked just 66 times in over 2,700 plate appearances.
Ozzie Guillen makes this list for his 10-walk season in 1996 -- and just misses three other times, with seasons of 11, 12 and 12.
(Research via Baseball-Reference.com's Play Index.)
As a resident of the Baltimore-Washington metro area, I’ve heard a lot of chatter regarding the Orioles’ winter trades and free-agent signings from fans and sports radio talking heads alike. For the most part, the tone has been positive and hopeful. To be perfectly honest, after 13 straight losing seasons, any sense of optimism is exciting. Still, I can’t help but wonder if the fans’ expectations are a tad too high as a result of these improvements. Are they setting themselves up for disappointment? Let’s take a look at their four big offseason acquisitions to see what kind of improvements we can expect to see over the upcoming season.
First Base – Derrek Lee
Last season, first base was a big problem for the Orioles. Garrett Atkins was nothing short of a train wreck, and the immediate replacements that followed in Jake Fox and Rhynes Hughes weren’t any better. Even Ty Wiggington, the de facto starter who hit 22 home runs, was a near-replacement level player last year, producing 0.3 fWAR. All-in-all, the production (or lack thereof) the O’s received from their first basemen was about a win below the replacement level.
Even though Lee had a down season in 2010, there are encouraging signs he could rebound this season. He plays solid defense at first, draws walks, works counts and should hit about 20 home runs. There’s absolutely no doubt that Lee is a big upgrade. Still, considering his age and recent performance history, we shouldn’t expect more than a 2-3 WAR season. Considering the monster spring training showing by Fox, perhaps Fox could see more time here if Lee is hurt or struggles.
Third Base – Mark Reynolds
In terms of Oriole problem areas, their third base situation was nearly as dire as the one at first base. Last season, the Orioles gave the majority of playing time to Miguel Tejada and Josh Bell, and in return they received -0.5 WAR in value. Something tells me that this isn’t what the front office envisioned when the season started.
To remedy this issue, the Orioles traded for Reynolds, the former Arizona third baseman. Despite coming off a difficult season in which he hit a measly .198, Reynolds still managed to provide the Diamondbacks with 2.4 WAR in value, primarily on the strength of his power, durability and defensive contributions. While Reynolds isn’t the defensive player that UZR made him appear to be last season, he’ll likely make up for the lost value in terms of improved offensive production. Reynolds’ paltry 13.3 percent line drive rate is likely to rebound given that his career average exceeds that rate by 4 percent. With an improved line drive rate, his batting average and OBP will improve in kind. A 2.5-3.0 WAR season is not out of the question.
Shortstop – J.J. Hardy
From 1983 to 2007, the Oriole shortstop situation was about as stable as any position in baseball with Cal Ripken, Mike Bordick and Tejada all holding down the fort for extended periods of time. In the three years since Tejada’s departure, Juan Castro, Alex Cintron, Freddie Bynum, Brandon Fehey, Luis Hernandez, Cesar Izturiz, Robert Andino and Julio Lugo have all been given their share of playing time. Yikes! Talk about replacement-level production.
Like Lee and Reynolds, Hardy is coming off of a down year. The good news is that even if he reproduced his 2010 season, he’d still provide about a 2.0-2.5 WAR improvement over last year’s crew. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hardy’s performance rebound this season. Last year, he played half of his games at Target Field, which was the most unfriendly ballpark in which to hit home runs. With Camden Yards being a home run neutral park, Hardy should see more of his long fly balls leave the yard. If he does, his improved offense, along with his above average defense, should provide about 3.0-3.5 WAR in value to the Orioles this season.
Designated Hitter – Vladmir Guerrero
Despite my objections to the Orioles increasing their offer to Vlad from $2 million to $8 million without a real competing offer on the table, his signing makes sense from a “good will” perspective. While he’s not the same player he was five years ago, he generates considerable excitement; especially with regards to the Orioles fan base. Still, I feel I should temper expectations. He’s old, can’t play defense (as we saw in the 2010 postseason), and his offensive skills are eroding, though he still commands a great deal of respect within the locker room. Furthermore, his signing shifted the defensively challenged Luke Scott from DH to left field, thus weakening the team at that position. Despite all the hoopla surrounding Vlad’s arrival, he projects to provide about 2.0 WAR in value. While that’s admirable production, it neither outpaces Scott’s 2010 production, nor improves the team in a measurable way. His addition appears to be purely cosmetic.
Even with the improvements the Orioles made during the offseason, it’s probably only enough to take them from 66 to 76 wins. While that’s an admirable accomplishment, I have to wonder if it was worthwhile to invest in short-term stop gaps, especially when the Orioles lack talented young prospects to fill behind those veterans. Really, if the Orioles are going to make any marked improvements, it will need to be on the backs of their young starters. At this point, outside of Brian Matusz, none of their young arms have shown they’re ready to take that next big step forward this year. That could change, but until they do, the Orioles will probably remain in the back of the AL East pack.
Chip Buck walks the tight rope of the Red Sox-Yankee rivalry by contributing to both Fire Brand of the American League, a blog about the Boston Red Sox, and It’s About the Money Stupid, a blog about the New York Yankees. IIATMS can also be found on Facebook here and you can follow on Twitter here.
First Base – Derrek Lee
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Derick E. Hingle/US PresswireThe Orioles are counting on new first baseman Derrek Lee to add some punch to their lineup.
Derick E. Hingle/US PresswireThe Orioles are counting on new first baseman Derrek Lee to add some punch to their lineup.Even though Lee had a down season in 2010, there are encouraging signs he could rebound this season. He plays solid defense at first, draws walks, works counts and should hit about 20 home runs. There’s absolutely no doubt that Lee is a big upgrade. Still, considering his age and recent performance history, we shouldn’t expect more than a 2-3 WAR season. Considering the monster spring training showing by Fox, perhaps Fox could see more time here if Lee is hurt or struggles.
Third Base – Mark Reynolds
In terms of Oriole problem areas, their third base situation was nearly as dire as the one at first base. Last season, the Orioles gave the majority of playing time to Miguel Tejada and Josh Bell, and in return they received -0.5 WAR in value. Something tells me that this isn’t what the front office envisioned when the season started.
To remedy this issue, the Orioles traded for Reynolds, the former Arizona third baseman. Despite coming off a difficult season in which he hit a measly .198, Reynolds still managed to provide the Diamondbacks with 2.4 WAR in value, primarily on the strength of his power, durability and defensive contributions. While Reynolds isn’t the defensive player that UZR made him appear to be last season, he’ll likely make up for the lost value in terms of improved offensive production. Reynolds’ paltry 13.3 percent line drive rate is likely to rebound given that his career average exceeds that rate by 4 percent. With an improved line drive rate, his batting average and OBP will improve in kind. A 2.5-3.0 WAR season is not out of the question.
Shortstop – J.J. Hardy
From 1983 to 2007, the Oriole shortstop situation was about as stable as any position in baseball with Cal Ripken, Mike Bordick and Tejada all holding down the fort for extended periods of time. In the three years since Tejada’s departure, Juan Castro, Alex Cintron, Freddie Bynum, Brandon Fehey, Luis Hernandez, Cesar Izturiz, Robert Andino and Julio Lugo have all been given their share of playing time. Yikes! Talk about replacement-level production.
Like Lee and Reynolds, Hardy is coming off of a down year. The good news is that even if he reproduced his 2010 season, he’d still provide about a 2.0-2.5 WAR improvement over last year’s crew. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hardy’s performance rebound this season. Last year, he played half of his games at Target Field, which was the most unfriendly ballpark in which to hit home runs. With Camden Yards being a home run neutral park, Hardy should see more of his long fly balls leave the yard. If he does, his improved offense, along with his above average defense, should provide about 3.0-3.5 WAR in value to the Orioles this season.
Designated Hitter – Vladmir Guerrero
Despite my objections to the Orioles increasing their offer to Vlad from $2 million to $8 million without a real competing offer on the table, his signing makes sense from a “good will” perspective. While he’s not the same player he was five years ago, he generates considerable excitement; especially with regards to the Orioles fan base. Still, I feel I should temper expectations. He’s old, can’t play defense (as we saw in the 2010 postseason), and his offensive skills are eroding, though he still commands a great deal of respect within the locker room. Furthermore, his signing shifted the defensively challenged Luke Scott from DH to left field, thus weakening the team at that position. Despite all the hoopla surrounding Vlad’s arrival, he projects to provide about 2.0 WAR in value. While that’s admirable production, it neither outpaces Scott’s 2010 production, nor improves the team in a measurable way. His addition appears to be purely cosmetic.
Even with the improvements the Orioles made during the offseason, it’s probably only enough to take them from 66 to 76 wins. While that’s an admirable accomplishment, I have to wonder if it was worthwhile to invest in short-term stop gaps, especially when the Orioles lack talented young prospects to fill behind those veterans. Really, if the Orioles are going to make any marked improvements, it will need to be on the backs of their young starters. At this point, outside of Brian Matusz, none of their young arms have shown they’re ready to take that next big step forward this year. That could change, but until they do, the Orioles will probably remain in the back of the AL East pack.
Chip Buck walks the tight rope of the Red Sox-Yankee rivalry by contributing to both Fire Brand of the American League, a blog about the Boston Red Sox, and It’s About the Money Stupid, a blog about the New York Yankees. IIATMS can also be found on Facebook here and you can follow on Twitter here.
Orioles going down same road as Astros
March, 4, 2011
3/04/11
11:02
AM ET
By Austin Swafford | ESPN.com
Finding the balance between experience and youth can be a tricky line to walk in sports. A winning formula in baseball is often found in those teams that manage to have veteran experience in the right places and youthful energy in others. You don't want to be too old or too young, and experience just for experience's sake is no benefit. The Astros have done a very bad job walking that line and they can serve as a cautionary tale for teams trying to win right now.
There's certainly nothing wrong with trying to win right now if you have the right parts. But I have thought about the lesson that could be learned from the Astros as I have watched the Orioles since the end of last season. They closed 2010 on a good note. They hired Buck Showalter and, with him at the helm, went 34-23 to end the year.
So, naturally, they looked around at their very talented division and said, "No rush. We have a good manager, we're making good progress and we have young talent. We can be patient while that young talent develops." Right?
It'd be nice if that were the case, but instead of doing that, the Orioles got very involved in free agency, went out and got J.J. Hardy, Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds, Vladimir Guerrero, Justin Duchscherer and Kevin Gregg. Average age: 31.8.
They're not all old and I don't dislike all of the signings, but why the urgency? Why the apparently desperate need to compete now when they probably won't?
Baltimore is in serious risk of getting mired in the same mud as the Astros since their surprising World Series run in 2005. The Astros haven't been bursting at the seams with young talent the last six years, but they spent four seasons taking what young talent they did have and dishing it to other teams to get veterans to try to compete now. They dealt Taylor Buchholz, Jason Hirsh and Willy Taveras to the Rockies for Jason Jennings. They shipped Luke Scott, Troy Patton and three others to the Orioles for Miguel Tejada. At the same time, they signed Carlos Lee as a free agent to the biggest contract in club history and patched together their rotation with guys like Woody Williams, Randy Wolf and Brian Moehler.
This not only cleansed the team of promising young players, but also suppressed the development of other young players, because if you're trying to win now, you can't be patient with a guy who struggles through the first couple of months of a season. Where a rebuilding team might recognize its ability to be patient and wait out the growing pains of a young player, a competing team can't afford to take the losses.
Houston spent four years suppressing the development of young players under the delusion that these poorly constructed teams loaded with not-so-good veterans might actually compete. Much like the Orioles, the Astros would go on good second-half runs that convinced the front office that they were just a piece or two shy of competing. Of course, they never even came close.
Much like the Orioles, the Astros finished 2010 on a good note. They had good second-half records, they have young talent and they both appeared to be heading in the right direction for the first time in a long time.
But the Orioles are in danger of falling into the same trap as the Astros. Let them serve as a cautionary tale that a good month and a half doesn't mean the team is a few overpriced veterans away from going to the World Series. Let them serve as a cautionary tale of what happens to a club when they refuse to develop young talent.
Austin Swafford writes Astros 290, a blog about the Houston Astros. You can follow him on Twitter.
There's certainly nothing wrong with trying to win right now if you have the right parts. But I have thought about the lesson that could be learned from the Astros as I have watched the Orioles since the end of last season. They closed 2010 on a good note. They hired Buck Showalter and, with him at the helm, went 34-23 to end the year.
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Eric GayThe Orioles signed 35-year-old Derrek Lee, among other veterans, during the offseason.
AP Photo/Eric GayThe Orioles signed 35-year-old Derrek Lee, among other veterans, during the offseason.It'd be nice if that were the case, but instead of doing that, the Orioles got very involved in free agency, went out and got J.J. Hardy, Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds, Vladimir Guerrero, Justin Duchscherer and Kevin Gregg. Average age: 31.8.
They're not all old and I don't dislike all of the signings, but why the urgency? Why the apparently desperate need to compete now when they probably won't?
Baltimore is in serious risk of getting mired in the same mud as the Astros since their surprising World Series run in 2005. The Astros haven't been bursting at the seams with young talent the last six years, but they spent four seasons taking what young talent they did have and dishing it to other teams to get veterans to try to compete now. They dealt Taylor Buchholz, Jason Hirsh and Willy Taveras to the Rockies for Jason Jennings. They shipped Luke Scott, Troy Patton and three others to the Orioles for Miguel Tejada. At the same time, they signed Carlos Lee as a free agent to the biggest contract in club history and patched together their rotation with guys like Woody Williams, Randy Wolf and Brian Moehler.
This not only cleansed the team of promising young players, but also suppressed the development of other young players, because if you're trying to win now, you can't be patient with a guy who struggles through the first couple of months of a season. Where a rebuilding team might recognize its ability to be patient and wait out the growing pains of a young player, a competing team can't afford to take the losses.
Houston spent four years suppressing the development of young players under the delusion that these poorly constructed teams loaded with not-so-good veterans might actually compete. Much like the Orioles, the Astros would go on good second-half runs that convinced the front office that they were just a piece or two shy of competing. Of course, they never even came close.
Much like the Orioles, the Astros finished 2010 on a good note. They had good second-half records, they have young talent and they both appeared to be heading in the right direction for the first time in a long time.
But the Orioles are in danger of falling into the same trap as the Astros. Let them serve as a cautionary tale that a good month and a half doesn't mean the team is a few overpriced veterans away from going to the World Series. Let them serve as a cautionary tale of what happens to a club when they refuse to develop young talent.
Austin Swafford writes Astros 290, a blog about the Houston Astros. You can follow him on Twitter.





