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Facing baseball’s top team in their ballpark Friday night, the Tampa Bay Rays brought home run power at the plate and strikeouts on the mound to put away the Texas Rangers, 8-4. This marked the sixth consecutive win for the Rays, who have seemingly righted themselves after sputtering to a 4-5 record to start the season.

The Rays have managed to go 9-2 since then, mainly due to a potent offense that is fourth in the American League in runs scored. Evan Longoria has hit like an MVP candidate, currently sporting a .319/.437/.569 line with four home runs, including a three-run shot Friday. Desmond Jennings owns a nine-game hitting streak, during which he's hit .324, and B.J. Upton has come off the disabled list with a vengeance with a .788 OPS.

Newly acquired bats Carlos Pena and Luke Scott have made Rays fans forget the short, though productive, stints in Tampa Bay of Johnny Damon and Casey Kotchman. Pena and Scott have already combined for nine home runs, more than one-third of the amount that Damon and Kotchman produced all of last year. For reference, the Rays have played 12.3 percent of their games so far, so it looks like these one-year deals on the heels of letting Damon and Kotchman walk could provide excess value.

Interestingly, the Rays are not utilizing the stolen base as the catalyst to their offensive production. Last season the Rays finished second in the majors in stolen bases, marking the first time since 2007 that they did not lead the league in the category. Entering last night, the Rays ranked 16th with 12 total steals. The Rays do have stolen-base threats in Jennings and Upton, but the Rays have been generating offense in a different manner than they are accustomed to -- with power.

The Rays have hit 27 home runs this year, tied for fourth in the majors. Longoria, Pena, Scott, and Matt Joyce have hit at least four long balls apiece. Behind them, Jennings and Ben Zobrist have three each. Those hitters comprise the Rays' 1-5 hitters against right-handed pitchers, as Joyce sits against southpaws. The impressive patience and power displayed by the Rays has been evident over their current win streak in that they have hit at least one home run in each of the past five games.

In addition to their offense, which was on display against Rangers lefty Matt Harrison on Friday night, the Rays have gotten a lift from their pitching over their past 10 games. Allowing just 2.9 runs per game has been a huge part of their 8-2 record over that span. Their run prevention has not all been pitching, however, as their defensive shifts have also proven to be effective. Adam Berry of MLB.com has a great article on the Rays and their shifts, along with the index cards they pull out for each hitter. The Rays currently rank second in the majors in Defensive Runs Saved with 19, nine more than the third-place Arizona Diamondbacks.

The Rays pride themselves on taking as many small advantages as possible, which is a testament to the quality of their front office, scouting and management. Signing players like Scott to a $6 million, one-year deal and moving starter Wade Davis to a bullpen role rather than trading him, are just two decisions that appear to be solid. Davis currently has a 1.86 ERA along with eight strikeouts and two walks in 9.2 innings out of the bullpen and was able to get out of a bases-loaded jam unscathed in the eighth inning of Friday’s victory.

The Rays will have to pitch better overall, specifically in the bullpen, over the course of the season. With the type of talent they possess and their excellent defense, their over-4.00 ERA should continue to decrease. With their offense scoring plenty of runs, improved pitching may make them the best team in baseball. But for now, that designation belongs to the team that is in the opposite dugout this weekend: the Rangers.

Ben Duronio writes about the Braves at Capitol Avenue Club. Follow him on Twitter.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

In 2011, the Tampa Bay Rays won 91 games, with that 91st win serving as one of the more memorable in baseball history.

They scored 707 runs and allowed 614, which projects to ... 91 wins. So they hit that win-loss record on the head. What can we project for 2012? Let's do a position-by-position analysis.

Catcher: Jose Molina
John Jaso, Kelly Shoppach and assorted backups hit .194/.274/.333 in 2011, so of course the Rays brought in Jose Molina -- for his defense. Molina turns 37 in June and has never batted 300 times in a season, so how much he actually ends up playing remains to be seen. Robinson Chirinos, Jose Labatan and Stephen Vogt are battling for the backup. Offensively, this crew may not be much of an improvement; I'll say an additional seven runs over the 45 runs created a year ago. More on Molina's defense later.

First base: Carlos Pena
Casey Kotchman didn't score or drive in many runs but did get on base (.378) so at least he wasn't a rally killer. Rays first basemen created about 83 runs. Carlos Pena takes over and even hitting .225 with the Cubs he created about 86 runs. Projection systems are calling for a slight decline for Pena as he moves to Tampa. Give him 75 runs plus a few more from his backups and I'll call this one a wash.

Second base: Ben Zobrist
In his three seasons as a regular, Zobrist has been all over the place: a .948 OPS in 2009, .699 in 2010, .822 in 2011. He created about 100 runs in 2011. With weight given to that 2010 performance he's projected to decline a bit. Minus nine runs.

Third base: Evan Longoria
Longoria missed most of April with an oblique strain and then posted a career-low .850 OPS despite mashing 31 home runs in 483 at-bats. Rays third basemen created about 95 runs (85 by Longoria). With an expected spike in his BABIP (.239 in 2011), Longoria's numbers should improve across the board. Plus 15 runs.

Shortstop: Sean Rodriguez/Reid Brignac/Elliot Johnson
Another position where the Rays received little production: A collective .193/.256/.282, good for 35 runs created. Amazing that Tampa made the playoffs with two positions hitting under .200. The production can only improve, although how much depends on who gets the playing time. Brignac has the best glove so will get another chance. ZiPS projects a .239/.281/.338 batting line. Not great, but still better. Overall, let's say an improvement of 12 runs.

Left field; Desmond Jennings
This was supposed to be Johnny Damon's position a year ago but he ended up as the DH after Manny Ramirez flunked out. Sam Fuld got most of the playing time early on before yielding to Jennings. Overall, the Rays got 85 runs from left field. ZiPS is pessimistic about Jennings, projecting a .259/.339/.392 line, which is about 83 runs over 670 plate appearances. Other systems project slightly better numbers. Let's give the Rays five additional runs.

Center field: B.J. Upton
He could improve, I suppose, but logic dictates more of the same. No change.

Right field: Matt Joyce
It will be interesting to see if Joe Maddon gives Joyce a chance to play full-time against left-handers this year or if he'll run Zobrist out to right field against southpaws. Joyce cooled off after his All-Star first half. He should put up similar overall numbers. No change.

Designated hitter: Luke Scott
Damon and assorted friends produced about 87 runs. If Scott matches his 2010 numbers with the Orioles (.284/.368/.535) he'll be a big step up. But those were also his career-best numbers and he'll be 34 in June. I see only a slight improvement of three runs.

Let's compare the 2011 rotation to projected numbers for 2012, cribbed from various projection systems.



2011: 162 starts, 1058 innings, 438 runs
2012: 155 starts, 995 innings, 430 runs

We'll add in the seven missing starts at 42 innings and 20 runs allowed (4.3 per nine innings), bringing the 2012 totals to 1037 innings and 450 runs allowed. That's 20 runs more than 2011 in slightly fewer innings. Is that fair? The projection systems are understandably not completely bullish on James Shields. While he had a 2.82 ERA in 2011, he's also a pitcher with a 3.96 career ERA. His .258 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was eighth-lowest among starters; and while Tampa's defense was arguably the best in baseball, they've had a good defense in previous seasons and Shields' BABIPs didn't approach .258. I'm a little surprised the systems don't foresee a better year from Price. In 2010, he had a 2.72 ERA and 3.42 FIP (fielding independent ERA); in 2011, a 3.49 ERA and 3.32 FIP, albeit with a much better SO/BB ratio. Bill Baer wrote about Hellickson and the reason he's projected to not match the sterling 2.95 ERA he posted as a rookie. As for Moore, the projection systems are conservative by nature so they're not going to match the lofty expectation fans have. It certainly wouldn't be shocking to see Moore post a sub-3.00 ERA over 30 starts. It's also not fair to expect that.

One other issue: Jeff Niemann is actually projected to be better than Wade Davis. I would suggest that if Davis does allow 4.7 runs per nine innings -- not awful, mind you -- Niemann will get a shot at some point. In other words, I think the Davis slot will be slightly better, either because he pitches better or Niemann gets some starts. So I do think it's fair to knock a few runs off the overall total. For now, let's say the rotation allows 15 more runs than a year ago. But more on that in a minute.

The Tampa bullpen in 2011 only had to pitch 391 innings, fewest in the AL. It posted a 3.73 ERA ERA, sixth in the league, allowing 176 runs. I'm slightly skeptical the pen will be as good, but they do have a variety of options, including using Davis or Niemann in a prominent role. I'm going to say no change for the bullpen, other than adding an additional 21 innings and nine additional runs allowed.

So that brings the totals to:

Offense: +33 runs scored, for a new total of 740 runs scored
Pitching: +24 runs allowed, for a new total of 638 runs allowed

We mentioned Jose Molina's defense earlier. Overall, the 2011 Rays easily rated as baseball's best defensive squad, 25 runs better than the No. 2 team, according to Baseball Info Solutions' Defensive Runs Saved. The major changes are Pena for Kotchman at first (both rated about league average) and Molina at catcher. Molina's added value comes in his ability to frame pitches, which studies indicate he's one of the best in the majors at -- maybe as much as 15 to 20 runs over an average catcher. We'll be conservative and subtract 10 runs off the defensive ledger. The rest of the defense should be similar.

So we now get:

Offense: 740 runs scored
Defense: 628 runs allowed

That creates an expected winning percentage of .575 -- or 93 wins.

OK, back to the pitching for a final word. Let's be slightly more optimistic. Let's take 10 runs off the totals for Shields, Price, Hellickson and Moore -- an additional 40 fewer runs allowed. It's certainly a reasonable proposition. This now gives the Rays 588 runs allowed and .604 winning percentage.

Which translates to 98 wins.

Of course, it's not quite that simple. This little analysis doesn't factor in everything -- the change in the quality of divisional opponents, for example. But one reason I like the Rays to beat their Vegas over/under line of 87.5 wins is that as a young team they're a pretty safe team to project. Injuries shouldn't be a major factor. They have depth in the rotation if somebody does go down. Yes, there is a little uncertainty in the bullpen and catcher and shortstop could still end up as offensive black holes, but this looks like a playoff team to me.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

• On his U.S.S. Mariner site, FanGraphs writer and ESPN contributor Dave Cameron suggests the Mariners should make a pitch for Anthony Rizzo, now that the Padres acquired Yonder Alonso in the Mat Latos deal. Dave suggests it could cost shortstop prospect Nick Franklin or pitching prospect James Paxton. Likewise, in his video review of the trade, Jim Bowden suggests Rizzo could be used to acquire Matt Garza from the Cubs. Here are three other possible landing spots for Rizzo:1. Rays: Tampa Bay needs a cheap, preferably left-handed bat, to play first base. Rizzo is cheap and left-handed. Wade Davis is signed to a team-friendly that could interest the Padres, although it would probably take more than Davis to pry away Rizzo.2. Orioles: The Orioles have Mark Reynolds and Chris Davis, which is kind of like have two screwdrivers when you need a hammer. Needless to say, the Orioles don't exactly have a lot to offer, as they need to keep Zach Britton and Brian Matusz is damaged goods after his tragically bad season. The Orioles do have two highly regarded shortstop prospects in Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop, although both are a few years from the majors.3. Astros: Absorbing Wandy Rodriguez's salary doesn't make sense for the Padres, so unless the Astros are willing to part with Jordan Lyles or Bud Norris, probably not a good match here.
• Here's a quick rundown on Latos' career to date.
• Speaking of the Orioles, Camden Depot has a rundown on the big shakeup in Baltimore's scouting department.
• It's the 12 Days of Baseballmas, from Mark Smith at The Platoon Advantage.
• Nick Nelson writes that it's looking like more of the same from Twins: In other words, a pitching staff that can't strike anybody out.
• Fun post from Stephanie Liscio on her irrational loves and hates. Yes, I would say loving Ronnie Belliard is a bit irrational. My hate of Jim Presley and Pete O'Brien? Completely justified, of course.
• Mark Simon writes about Jimmy Rollins' defense. Is he on the decline?
• Dwight Evans is a stathead favorite for his wide range of underrated skills. David Laurila of FanGraphs caught up with Evans to discuss The Catch, 1986 and his son's illness.
• One of the Mariners' minority owners is in the middle of messy divorce. So how much is the club worth?
• Finally, Grant Bisbee writes that the NL West should be sad that Mat Latos is leaving the division -- after all, he was so much fun to dislike.

Jon Weisman of the Dodger Thoughts blog has a good piece on the ups and downs of Chad Billingsley, leading me to think of five other players whose performance has left me a little confused this season.

Drew Stubbs, CF, Reds: He thought he was a breakthrough performer last season with 22 home runs and 30 steals. But the strikeout rate is even higher this year (he leads the NL with 170), and while he plays a good center field and has swiped 32 bases, his .248/.321/.380 batting line isn't impressive for the Great American Ballpark. His .612 road OPS -- combined with all those whiffs -- has you wondering about his future.

Andre Ethier, RF, Dodgers: Ethier appeared to be heading to a monster season after his 30-game hitting streak in April and May. But he's hit a lackluster .251 with a .712 OPS since the streak ended. After making $9.5 million this season, he has one more year of arbitration before hitting free agency. He's not a good defensive outfielder and turns 30 in 2012. He suddenly doesn't look like a $10 million-a-year player anymore.

Justin Smoak, 1B, Mariners: After posting a .920 OPS in April, Smoak looked like the hitter everyone had projected when Seattle got him from Texas last summer in the Cliff Lee trade. But he hasn't hit much since and has been out since early August after getting hit in the face with a groundball. His .220/.317/.387 line may have been aggravated by a thumb injury and blisters that he tried to play through. Nonetheless, he's now played 200 big-league games and has a career average of .219.

Rick Porcello, P, Tigers: Bottom line ... despite the stuff, he doesn't get enough batters out, with a 5.17 ERA, high WHIP and low strikeout rate. He's still so young (22) that he can improve, but unless he develops a strikeout pitch, he's never going to be more than the No. 4 or 5 starter he is right now.

Wade Davis, P, Rays: Another pitcher with good stuff and high expectations, Davis has battled inconsistency in his second season. Despite his power arm, he's averaging even fewer strikeouts per nine than Porcello, as he's dropped from 6.1 as a rookie to 4.8. His 4.28 ERA looks OK, but he's pitching in a good pitcher's park with a pretty good defense behind him. Does he still have No. 2 potential or is he a bottom-of-the-rotation fodder?

Who confuses you? Discuss below.

As miserable as the Red Sox have played so far, at least they can look at a lineup that includes Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis, Carl Crawford, Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz and know -- eventually -- they’re going to score a lot of runs.

The fans of the Tampa Bay Rays, however, are staring down a lineup that includes Triple-A veteran Dan Johnson hitting cleanup, Cubs castoff Sam Fuld hitting leadoff and 37-year-old Johnny Damon trying to hold off the cruelties of age.

It’s been brutal start for the defending AL East champions: 20 runs scored through nine games, with a .163 team batting average. With runners in scoring position, they’re hitting .150. It’s added up to a 1-8 record and now the Rays have to play the Red Sox and Twins this week, two other teams with playoff aspirations due to break out of hitting slumps.

In 2010, the Rays finished third in the AL in runs scored, despite finishing 13th in the league in batting average. They did it by drawing the most walks in the league and stealing the most bases. And they also did it with clutch hitting. Overall, the Rays hit .247/.333/.403, but with runners in scoring position they hit .266/.368/.422 and in so-called high-leverage situations, when a game’s outcome is most up for grabs, they hit .272/.354/.442.

In other words, the talent level of the Tampa Bay offense wasn’t that of the third-best offense in the league. Yes, the speed and stolen bases helped, but it was a team that relied on timely hitting. The 2011 Rays were counting heavily on big production from Manny Ramirez and Damon. Ramirez is gone and Damon looks lost early on, hitting .125 (4-for-32) with nine strikeouts and just one walk.

OK, they’re not going to hit .163 all year and they’ll hopefully get Evan Longoria back in a couple weeks, but this team is going struggle to score runs all season. And that’s not the only reason I’m declaring the Rays on life support:

1. The rotation is shaky. In 2010, Tampa Bay starters posted a 3.99 ERA, third-best in the AL. Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis combined to go 24-18 with a solid a 4.23 ERA. James Shields had an ERA over 5.00. Of 92 major league starters to pitch 162 innings, Niemann ranked 82nd, Davis 83rd and Shields 91st in home runs allowed per nine innings. Yes, some of that was due to facing the tough lineups of the AL East, but Tropicana Field is a relatively tough home run park. Niemann (.263) and Davis (.272) also had low averages allowed on balls in play, suggesting some regression would occur in 2011 (even with Tampa’s usually stout defense).

2. The bullpen. As “Baseball Prospectus 2011” reported, Tampa Bay’s bullpen was the best in the league last season, worth 4½ wins more than the Yankee pen, eight more than Boston’s. All those guys are gone, replaced by Kyle Farnsworth, Joel Peralta, rookie Jake McGee and others who will be hard-pressed to come close to the 2010 results.

3. The running game. So important to Tampa’s success last year, the Rays are on the losing end this year -- because they can’t stop it. While Tampa is eight for 10 on the bases, their opponents are 15 for 15. Something else to worry about.

Look, Tampa is every stat head’s little engine that could. They’ve won two of the past three AL East titles despite spending about $444 million less than the Yankees and $243 million less than the Red Sox.

But it’s not going to be three out of four.

SERIES OF THE WEEK

Dodgers at Giants

Monday: Clayton Kershaw versus Madison Bumgarner
Tuesday: Chad Billingsley versus Tim Lincecum
Wednesday: Ted Lilly versus Jonathan Sanchez

Sadly we won’t get a Kershaw-Lincecum rematch of Opening Day, but we’ll see three excellent matchups. Bumgarner must rebound from a bad first start in which he lasted just three innings. With last week’s incident at Dodger Stadium involving fan-on-fan violence, extra security will be on hand at AT&T Park. The Dodgers are 5-4 but another team with a struggling offense, having scored just 28 runs in nine games.

PITCHING MATCHUP OF THE WEEK

Tuesday: David Price versus Jon Lester (Tampa Bay at Boston)

Yes, I think I’ll want to check this one out.

THREE SWINGS

1. Jered Weaver and Dan Haren may be as good as any 1-2 combo in the majors. After Weaver added the strikeout to his arsenal last season, he moved into the upper echelon of major leaguer starters. He’s showing it wasn’t a fluke after sending down 15 Blue Jays on Sunday. Haren got the win in relief in Saturday’s 14-inning win over Toronto and has 13 strikeouts without a walk so far.

2. Is Joey Votto even better than last season? The 2010 NL MVP is hitting .455/.548/.727 and NL pitchers are showing their fear: Votto has eight walks, only three strikeouts.

3. Kudos to Ozzie Guillen for suggesting he may go to a closer-by-committee approach. Yes, this came about primarily because former setup man Matt Thornton blew two of his first three save opportunities, but going to a committee allows Guillen to tactically deploy his two late-inning lefties (Thornton and Chris Sale) and his late-inning righties (Jesse Crain and Sergio Santos) as best suited to the situation.

RANT OF THE WEEK

James Loney, it’s time to step up. The Dodgers first baseman turns 27 in May, but instead of reaching his peak, he’s become a dud. After hitting .331/.381/.538 in 96 games as a rookie in 2007, big things were expected. After hitting .289 with 13 home runs in 2008, big things were still expected. When his OPS slid to .756 in 2009, people said the power may still come. When he hit .267 with 10 home runs in 2010, reality set in: James Loney isn’t that good anymore. He’s off to a slow start (.441 OPS) and the Dodgers -- if they want to contend in a tough division -- may need to figure out a way to upgrade their offense at first base.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

There's a larger piece to be written about a few teams with incredible numbers of impressive young starting pitchers, but for the moment let's focus on the Rays, who have eight legitimate starters locked in next year ... if they want all of them.

Or maybe six, with two more who could start for the Royals and the Pirates (among many other non-contending clubs). Obviously, David Price and Matt Garza and James Shields and Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson are all good enough to start for literally every team in the majors. But there's also Andy Sonnanstine, who's been consigned to the bullpen, but is better than many (and perhaps most) teams' No. 5 starters. Plus there's young Jake McGee, a strikeout machine who gave up three home runs this season in 103 minor-league innings (mostly in Double-A). McGee probably still needs some seasoning, and he's had some health issues. But after this summer he has to figure into the Rays' planning.

So what do they do with all those guys? As Ben Nicholson-Smith suggests, a trade or two is probably in order:

The Rays have a tremendous amount of starting pitching depth in their organization. Other needs are about to emerge for the team, so it would make sense for them to consider trading Garza and Shields. Both would be sought-after and the Rays would likely have a strong rotation even if they traded one of their more established starters away.

Well, sure. But wouldn't it make sense to consider trading anyone? Garza and Shields are singled out because they're more expensive than the other guys ... but a) that might make them less attractive to other teams, and b) aside from perhaps Price they're the surest bets in the rotation, and when you're trying to win 95-100 games you have to think hard before giving up sure bets.

But they're going to have to give up something, because they're going to have to replace their left fielder and their first baseman, and one of the replacements must bring at least a moderately big bat. Keep an eye on Rays management this winter. As good as they've been these past few years, there's always a new test.

Well, the Rays are the latest club to choose their No. 5 starter and everyone's favorite super-control pitcher is on the outs. Marc Topkin:

The discomfort in J.P. Howell's left shoulder was obvious Wednesday — on Andy Sonnanstine's face.

With Howell, their top setup man, out at least a month, the Rays didn't have much choice but to give the fifth spot in the rotation to rookie Wade Davis. And the runner-up prize of the long-relief job wasn't much consolation to Sonnanstine.

"A little disappointed," he said. "It's a tough one to swallow."

Sonnanstine said repeatedly he was ready, willing and able to do what he could to embrace his new role, but his cautiousness was clear. He has limited experience in the bullpen (four big-league appearances, 10 in Class A) and questions about how much and how often he'll be able to pitch, what changes to make to his workout routine and how to handle the late-game situations.

"I feel like I've been a starter most of my life, I feel more confident as a starter, I feel like I'm a better pitcher as a starter," he said. "This is something that being a team guy, I really want to dive into and start learning. ... Hopefully the learning curve isn't too big."

With Howell out and prospects to replace him externally uncertain, the Rays felt it necessary to make the decision now. They wanted time for Davis, who has had a rough spring, to get stretched out, and straightened out, and Sonnanstine working on the requisite adjustments.

"The competition would have continued had J.P. not been injured," manager Joe Maddon said.

(Don't worry about the learning curve, Andy ... Just go out there for an inning at a time and throw harder than you usually do. You'll be amazed at how easy it is when you don't have to throw more than 25 or 30 pitches.)

Maybe someone can explain the logic here: Because Howell's going to miss a few weeks, the Rays need to turn a starting pitcher into (presumably) a long reliever, and their choice is the veteran starter who's pitched well this month, rather than the rookie who's been struggling?

Actually, there's something admirable about this. Sonnanstine and Davis have combined for 18 2/3 innings this spring, and I generally frown upon decisions made on the weak shoulders of 18 2/3 innings.

On the other hand, it's pretty clear that Sonnanstine doesn't have much of a future with the Rays. Not with Davis moving up and Jeremy Hellickson right behind him. On the organizational depth chart, Sonnanstine now ranks seventh or eighth among the starting pitchers, and maybe this is simply management's way of easing him out of the picture.

Golly, I sure didn't see this one coming:

The Los Angeles Angels, looking to bolster their rotation for the last five weeks of the season and in October, acquired leftt-hander Scott Kazmir of the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday.

"This is a surprise. I had heard rumors before, but it's hard to believe that it is now official," Kazmir said after Tampa Bay's 6-2 loss to Detroit. "It's a disappointment because of all the relationships I've built in the organization and the city, but you can't control the business side of the game."

The Angels and Rays had extensive conversations before the trade deadline about Kazmir, who is 8-7 with a 5.92 ERA.

Tampa Bay receives two minor leaguers -- left-hander Alex Torres and infielder Matt Sweeney -- and a player to be named later in the deal.

--snip--

Kazmir is the club's career leader in wins, strikeouts, starts and innings pitched.

"It's very easy to say that this trade will hurt our chances, given how Scott has pitched his last few starts," Maddon said. "But we've got guys in the minors that we really like and that we think can help us."

The left-handed Torres, 21, is 13-4 with a 2.75 ERA in the minors this season, while reaching Double-A. Sweeney, a 21-year-old third baseman, is hitting .296 in Class A, with nine homers, 44 RBIs, 26 walks and 37 strikeouts.

It's not really fair to describe this deal as a salary dump, because the Rays are getting far more than just $21 million of financial relief. They've also picked up at least two solid prospects, and it's not all that unlikely that one of those prospects will wind up helping the Rays as soon as next season.

But of course the deal was largely about the money. And the standings. It's been apparent for some time now that for the Rays to ace out the Red Sox and the Rangers for the wild card, a number of things would have to go right for them (and perhaps wrong for their competition). Trading Kazmir doesn't mean they're giving up on that possibility; it just means their chances of reaching the playoffs moves from around 10 percent with Kazmir in the rotation to perhaps eight percent with Wade Davis replacing him.

Giving up two percent in exchange for three talented young players ... well, on paper that's a move you'd be thrilled to make, every day of the week.

The Rays don't play their games on paper, though, and I'm surprised they would make this deal. Yes, maybe the performance hit they're taking is negligible. But try explaining that to the fans, particularly when the guy you're dealing is arguably the franchise's all-time pitcher. Would Kazmir really have been worth less on the trade market this winter, or next spring, or next July?

Well, that all depends on how he finishes this season. There's often not a great deal of demand for a pitcher with a 5.92 ERA. But if Kazmir pitches well for the Angels in September and October, we might reasonably wonder if the Rays should have waited until their fate this season was sealed.

Meanwhile, the Angels have locked up a pretty good pitcher for a pretty good price for the next two months and two seasons. But we can't begin to evaluate this trade until we see what the pitcher does, and what those three prospects do. Right now I'd call it a square deal, good for both sides. But it probably won't end up that way.

As Tony Fabrizio notes, the Rays have a tough, Red Sox-like decision to make:

LHP Scott Kazmir will come off the disabled list and pitch Saturday or Sunday against the Marlins, and an announcement on whom he will replace on the roster and in the rotation is imminent.

--snip--

The Rays' options for creating a spot in the rotation for Kazmir include sending [Andy] Sonnanstine or [David] Price to Durham or moving Andy Sonnanstine or [Jeff] Niemann to the bullpen.

Sonnanstine, who has the highest ERA among the five current starters (6.61), had a rugged first inning in Thursday against the Phillies, allowing four runs. But he recovered nicely and left after 51/3 innings with a 6-4 lead.

Would you believe that Sonnanstine's got a better strikeout-to-walk ratio than Matt Garza?

The three-run difference between their ERAs -- 6.61 for Sonnanstine, 3.31 for Garza -- is partly attributable to luck: lousy for Sonnanstine, quite good for Garza. Which isn't to say that Sonnanstine's pitched well this season. His strikeouts are down slightly, his walks are up 40 percent, and he's given up too many big flies. But I'm not convinced that Sonnanstine v.2009 is fundamentally different from the version who went 13-9 last season.

Which doesn't necessarily mean he's one of the Rays' five best starters. Except I'm pretty sure he is, as both Niemann and Price have significantly lower K/BB ratios than Sonnanstine. If it were my team, I'd probably find a spot for Price in the (granted, already crowded) bullpen. As for Niemann, after 264 solid innings in Triple-A it's not apparent what he might possibly learn from another trip to Durham. Niemann does give the Rays six reasonably viable starters, which is nice ... except they've also got prospect Wade Davis in Durham, which -- allowing for the typical rookie growing pains -- actually gives them seven (just like the Red Sox).

As so many have observed, having too many starters is a good problem to have ... but only if you come up with the right solution. Stay tuned.