SweetSpot: Will Rhymes

Move of the Day: Desmond Jennings DL'd

May, 14, 2012
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The Washington Nationals aren’t the only team struggling to put its best nine out there on any given day. The Tampa Bay Rays have suffered another injury, losing Desmond Jennings for at least the next two weeks after placing him retroactively on the disabled list. The move dates to Saturday because Jennings was used as a pinch-hitter Friday night against the Orioles. The knee injury that pushed him to the DL had already kept him out of the starting lineup for a week.

So that's an unhappy contretemps because there’s a chance Jennings could be back sooner than the full two weeks he’ll now be gone. Not that there isn’t anything wrong with some caution, of course -- now that B.J. Upton is back in action, the Rays' outfield and DH situations might seem set: Upton in center, Ben Zobrist in right, and that tasty Matt Joyce -- Brandon Guyer platoon in left field.

But that’s the thing: It’s an asymmetric substitution. The Rays aren’t replacing Jennings’ production with an outfielder, they’re replacing it with the always flexible Zobrist. That means borrowing a bat from their infield, and giving playing time to Joe Maddon’s squad of supersubs. Now a combination of Elliot Johnson, Will Rhymes, Jeff Keppinger and Sean Rodriguez have to cover second, third and shortstop because Evan Longoria is also out.

This isn’t something the Rays can roll with all that easily, especially when we’re talking about Rodriguez (.606 OPS) or Keppinger (.663) facing right-handers, or Rhymes facing anybody. Maddon will mix and match the best he can, but the limitations of what he has to work with will become more and more apparent as the talent gets exposed or over-exposed. Johnson might be the one guy in this group with the up-side to be an adequate bat in the middle infield (PECOTA projects a one in five shot at a .720 OPS or better). That’s still lower than what they were getting from Jennings -- or could reasonably expect as he was projected to deliver .730 or so as a baseline, and sitting at .731.

Tigers prospects dry up after AFL

July, 16, 2011
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When the Tigers traded Scott Sizemore to the A's over Memorial Day weekend, it brought an abrupt and mildly startling end to his tenure as Detroit’s second baseman of the future. The Tigers, after all, anointed him as the heir apparent to Placido Polanco almost immediately after they lost Game 163 to the Twins in 2009.

[+] EnlargeScott Sizemore
Rick Osentoski/US PresswireScott Sizemore didn't pan out as Detroit's long-term second baseman.
Polanco was eligible for arbitration, which coincided with the Tigers’ momentary spending freeze, and soon he was back with the Phillies doing everything fans in Detroit had become accustomed to: steadiness in the field, reliability at the plate.

But back to Sizemore. In 2007 the Tigers sent him to the Arizona Fall League, “a graduate school” for top prospects according to the AFL media guide. They did so again in ’09 in what they undoubtedly expected to be a final tuneup before handing over the keys to second base to him for the foreseeable future.

Within days of the start of the 2009 AFL season, Sizemore’s ankle was broken as he attempted to turn a double play, so his fall league tune-up experience went kaput. It didn’t stop the Tigers from hoping that he could recover in time for spring training, however.

Fast-forward to May 27 this year, when he was dealt to Oakland for David Purcey (himself an AFL graduate), closing the book on Sizemore’s career in Detroit: 65 games, a .223 average, .605 OPS and a mere three home runs. Not legendary stuff, and certainly nowhere close to Polanco’s track record.

Sizemore’s flameout got me thinking about the poor results the Tigers have seen from their Arizona Fall League representatives, particularly when contrasted with AL Central rivals. Over the past five years, the players sent by the Tigers to the AFL (including Sizemore, twice) haven’t lived up their billing. Tigers fans heard breathless projections of guys such as Brent Clevlen, Cameron Maybin and Virgil Vasquez -- not to mention Jeff Larish and Cale Iorg -- only to see them cut loose or traded or otherwise vanish from baseball. In some cases, Cody Ross and Burke Badenhop for example, Tiger AFL prospects have gone elsewhere and had success.

Expand the view a bit wider and you’ll see that Curtis Granderson, Tony Clark and Frank Catalanotto and current Tigers utilityman Don Kelly also spent an autumn in Phoenix. But outside of Granderson, which Tigers player and AFL alum over the past five seasons has the most big-league experience? Outfielder Casper Wells, who at the All-Star break had 97 games with the Tigers. Next in line is Opening Day second baseman Will Rhymes (73), Sizemore (65) and pitcher Eddie Bonine (62). Where are they today? Rhymes is a Triple-A all-star in Toledo, Sizemore’s playing in the East Bay and Bonine is pitching for the Phillies’ Triple-A club.

From the perspective of a Tigers fan, these underperforming prospects are that much more frustrating when the Indians, White Sox, Royals and Twins accelerate their AFL players from the desert to the big-league club. How’s this for a collection of who’s who as prospects go: Chris Getz, Gordon Beckham, Joe Crede, Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler, Mitch Maier, Joe Mauer, Grady Sizemore and David Huff.

This examination of the Tigers’ AFL classes doesn’t mean the franchise hasn’t developed important players. Since 2006, Justin Verlander, Brennan Boesch, Alex Avila, Joel Zumaya all came through the Detroit farm system -- but they all bypassed Arizona on their way up.

For many teams, particularly those in the AL Central, the Arizona Fall League has been a key stop on their development fast track. Unfortunately, for the Tigers and their top prospects this graduate school has handed out nothing but failing grades of late.

Mike McClary is the founder of The Daily Fungo, the Tigers affiliate of the SweetSpot network.

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