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Josh Hamilton flipped the bat back and jogged around the bases with his eyes fixed to the ground. There was no fist-pump, no pointing at the dugout, not even a wave to the fans. That’s not how you react when you expect to win games, and Hamilton and the Texas Rangers certainly expect to do that every time they take the field. Boasting the best run differential in the American League, Texas certainly deserves the respect it's being given this year.

But look just two ticks below them in the run-differential standings, and you’ll see a team that may surprise you: The Toronto Blue Jays, the very team that Hamilton beat with his walk-off home run on Saturday afternoon.

Toronto certainly had some hype coming into the season. With the two-time defending home-run king, Jose Bautista, to build around, things up north were only getting better. Add in a full season of emerging superstar Brett Lawrie, who looked like a legitimate All-Star during his brief time in the majors last year, and there seemed to be no reason why the Blue Jays couldn’t find themselves playing October baseball, especially once Bud Selig announced the addition of a second wild-card team in each league.

Well, two months later Bautista is hitting only .234, Lawrie has a meek .672 OPS, and the man who protected Bautista in the lineup over the past two years, Adam Lind, isn’t even on the major league team. Knowing those three facts alone, one would predict that the season hasn’t exactly gone as general manager Alex Anthopoulos and manager John Farrell imagined. Yet even after Saturday’s heartbreaking 13-inning loss to the Rangers, Toronto sits only 1 1/2 games out of a playoff spot with a 24-23 record.

Like almost anything else in baseball, success starts with the starting pitching. Toronto’s top four of Brandon Morrow, Ricky Romero, Kyle Drabek and Henderson Alvarez all have ERAs of 3.86 or lower, with at least five quality starts apiece. That type of production will keep any team afloat.

Morrow in particular has been brilliant. The ex-Mariner was always plagued with command issues that limited his success as a starter. His 8 percent walk rate this year is a full 3 percent lower than his career mark, and would seem to indicate that he has finally gotten a grip commanding his stuff.

Unfortunately for Toronto, each of these four pitchers has a higher FIP than ERA, indicating that all of them are probably due for some regression as the season continues. Don’t be surprised to see the Jays in on any starters who might become available as the trade deadline gets closer, with Zack Greinke as the ultimate prize.

Although Bautista has been struggling, Edwin Encarnacion has been a revelation for the Jays. He has already jacked 15 home runs, only two fewer than he did all of last year, with a robust .929 OPS. That being said, his power is likely to slide off a bit over the coming weeks. His current HR/FB rate of 18.8 percent is much higher than his 12.4 career mark.

Bautista, on the other hand, hasn’t gotten any breaks this season. His .211 BABIP means his average will bounce back soon enough, and it’s not like he’s experiencing a power outage -- he has 12 homers on the year. On top of that, his fly-ball and ground-ball rates are right around his career averages, reflecting that he hasn’t changed anything fundamental with his swing. Just give him time, and there’s every reason to believe Bautista will return to form.

At the moment, the Blue Jays have two big problems besides Bautista’s struggles. The first is their bullpen, something that was supposed to be a strength coming into the season. When Anthopoulos acquired Sergio Santos from the White Sox over the winter, many believed that the Blue Jays had finally found a consistent closer, a position that had been in flux over the past few years. Instead, Santos blew the first two save opportunities he had before being placed on the disabled list with an injured shoulder. The man Anthopoulos acquired to be Santos’ setup man, Francisco Cordero, took over; he was even worse. Casey Janssen has since assumed the role and has done remarkably, not allowing a run since being named the closer. Still, the Jays’ bullpen has almost no depth, with the ageless Darren Oliver as the only other consistent option. This is another area that Toronto will be looking to fix come the end of July if it wants to contend.

The other main obstacle Toronto faces right now is, of course, the division it plays in. The AL East is easily the best division in baseball, if not all of sports. Having to compete with the Red Sox and Yankees every year is tough enough, but now that Tampa Bay is a legitimate power and Baltimore is looking better and better every day (and in first place), there are five legitimate playoff contenders vying for three spots. Toronto is 7-12 against teams in its division, and 17-11 against everyone else. The fact that the Jays have to play 18 games every year against four teams with so much talent is almost unfair.

With a fourth of the season done, Toronto is still very much in the playoff race. Farrell would surely tell you that this team can do better, and the numbers would back him up. Although the Jays saw a sure victory turn into a mirage in the Texas heat Saturday, their future is still bright.

If Toronto acquires an ace and some bullpen depth at the deadline, it should have more than just playoff aspirations. That sort of reinforced Jays club could have championship aspirations. Blue jays traditionally start heading south when the October winds blow in, but this just might be the year where those traditions begin to change.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Alex Convery writes for Fire Brand of the American League, a SweetSpot network affiliate. You can follow him on Twitter here.

My special co-host for Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast was ESPN writer and former GM Jim Bowden, and let’s just say neither of us held back in what was an entertaining, honest and lively show.

1. The Red Sox are apparently cool with Adrian Gonzalez playing right field, but for how long? How easy will it be for the team to trade Kevin Youkilis? And should the Red Sox and Phillies be sellers?

2. Jim shares his thoughts on his players that will be traded before July 31, leading with a former Cy Young winner plying his trade for a team that can’t afford him.

3. Ah, here’s a topic we never get to: closers. Jim and I debate the human effect for fellows like Aroldis Chapman and Sean Marshall.

4. When Tampa’s Joe Maddon makes unconventional decisions, we praise him. Is that fair? What if a manager not known for his good moves would have led Carlos Pena off?

5. Finally, we look at Wednesday’s schedule, which includes Cole Hamels versus Bryce Harper. The Nationals are clearly getting the last laugh on their I-95 rivals.

So download and listen to a fun Baseball Today podcast, because it’s boring when everyone agrees. And on this show, that just wasn’t the case!

Milwaukee Brewers second baseman Rickie Weeks is turning into this year's version of Adam Dunn -- a good player having a historically awful season. He's batting .158/.285/.289 and has struck out 57 times in 179 plate appearances. While he's certainly been strikeout prone in the past (184 in 2010), he had cut his K rate down last season.

The other day, Weeks forgot how many outs there way, failing to turn a double play when he could have.

Kenton Wong and Mark Simon of ESPN Stats & Information passed along this at-bat from last night against Sergio Romo, which does a pretty good of summing up Weeks' issues at the plate. He took two strikes and then swung at a pitch about two feet off the plate:





Here's an overhead image of how far outside that pitch was.

Weeks has been diving out over the plate, a problem Brewers manager Ron Roenicke told MLB.com last week is all mental: "He probably swings 50-100 times a day [in the batting cage] the right way. So why, when you get in a game, do you have a swing that's completely different than what you do in practice? Something changes up here [in the player's head]. You're thinking, 'Hey, this guy is going to pitch me away, I've got to go out and hit this ball.' The next thing you know, you're diving out over the plate."

As for the Brewers, they're 17-26 and not just because Prince Fielder is no longer in town. Weeks has been awful, Nyjer Morgan hasn't driven in a run in 116 plate appearances, Aramis Ramirez has a .299 OBP, Randy Wolf has been terrible and Yovani Gallardo inconsistent. It's a bad team right now, bad enough that Jim Bowden thinks Zack Greinke will be traded by the July 31 trade deadline.

It's easy to discount the Baltimore Orioles and their 14-8 start. Even Orioles fans will agree with that, I suppose -- 14 consecutive losing seasons, six consecutive seasons of 90-plus losses, a decade of bad pitching, bad fielding, bad free agents and bad ownership. It's the Orioles. It's been a long time since they mattered.

But we have to pay attention after this start. At least for a few weeks, right? They are 14-8, they are tied for first with the Tampa Bay Rays in baseball's brawniest division, they've won six of seven and they've won games in a peculiar, un-Orioles-like fashion -- great pitching and dramatic comebacks. The Orioles allowed just 13 runs over this seven-game stretch. Sunday's win was the kind you put on a season highlight DVD as they scored five runs in the bottom of the ninth -- capped by Wilson Betemit's walk-off three-run homer against Oakland's Grant Balfour.

"We got a team where everybody pulls together," Betemit said after the game. "Everybody knows how to play, knows how to win, and that's what we do."

Now, maybe Betemit just got caught up in the happy celebration. He probably doesn't realize how that quote sounds so odd to Orioles fans. Then again, he's new to Baltimore and isn't trapped by that cloud of losing seasons. But it's also true that Baltimore is winning these kinds of games -- according to Nick Faleris of the Camden Depot blog, that's five comeback wins in the seventh inning or later for the Orioles, matching their 2011 total.

Nolan Reimold (.333), Adam Jones (.330), Robert Andino (.324) and Chris Davis (.319) are all hitting above .300. Matt Wieters has six homer runs and a team-leading 15 RBIs. The Orioles are sixth in the AL in runs even though J.J. Hardy is hitting .181 and Mark Reynolds is hitting .150 without a home run.

Now, this is where I rain on the Orioles' parade a little bit. Those four guys hitting over .300? They've combined for just 13 walks but 60 strikeouts. Can they keep up that production? The low walk rate means the Orioles are just 10th in the AL in on-base percentage, so they have been relying on the home run (29 in 22 games).

But it's been the rotation that has provided the biggest lift. After ranking last in the AL in 2011 with a 5.39 ERA, the rotation has posted a 3.65 ERA so far, led by newcomer Jason Hammel's 1.73 mark. But Wei-Yin Chen has been a nice surprise as well, with a 2.22 ERA. The 26-year-old Taiwanese left-hander came over from Japan and has a four-pitch repertoire that isn't overpowering but he's fanned 19 batters in 24.2 innings, a good enough rate to survive.

Now ... this is where I again in some rain. While Jake Arrieta has looked good, left-hander Brian Matusz has again struggled, although his last start was his best. The Orioles are still looking for the promising lefty of 2010, but he's at least throwing 90 mph again. Tommy Hunter is a finesse right-hander who has survived despite allowing eight home runs so far. But what happens when he starts going through those AL East lineups start after start?

Speaking of which. The Orioles play the Yankees and Red Sox this week. They already went 0-3 earlier in the season against New York and this time have to play the Yankees on the road. This will be a good test to see what kind of team the Orioles really have. Not to disagree with Mr. Betemit, but I have doubts whether this is a team that knows how to win. Last year, the O's went 13-23 against New York and Boston; in 2010, they went 14-22; in 2009, 7-29. The last time they won a season series against either team was 2004, when they went 10-9 against Boston.

Series of the week: Orioles at Yankees, Monday through Wednesday
Jason Hammel (3-0, 1.73) vs. Hiroki Kuroda (1-3, 4.38), 7:05 ET
Brian Matusz (0-3, 5.66) vs. Phil Hughes (1-3, 7.88), 7:05 ET
Jake Arrieta (1-2, 4.45) vs. Ivan Nova (3-0, 5.18), 7:05 ET (ESPN)

Hammel has thrived by throwing lots of grounders -- he's fourth among all starting pitchers in groundball rate so far, at 61.8 percent. The O's hope to take advantage of a struggling Hughes on Tuesday. He's lasted just 16 innings over four starts, giving up five home runs and a .329 average. Nova is 3-0 -- he hasn't lost a start since last June 3. But he's allowed a .343 average, though his walk rate is down and strikeout rate way up from 2011.

Three pitching matchups to watch
1. Cole Hamels (3-1, 2.73) vs. Brandon Beachy, Phillies at Braves (Tuesday, 7:10 ET)

The Braves have quietly gone 14-8 with a +27 run differential, third-highest in baseball behind the Rangers and Cardinals. Filthy Hamels (30 strikeouts, three walks) will be a fun test for the NL's leading offense (tied with the Cardinals at 5.1 runs per game). Beachy has a 1.05 ERA, although that figure has been helped by four unearned runs. Still, Beachy has allowed a .191 average through four starts and has improved his groundball rate from 33.8 percent in 2011 to 47.3, leading to just one home run allowed.

2. Jake Peavy (3-1, 1.67) vs. Drew Smyly (1-0, 1.23)

Peavy looks rejuvenated, the Peavy of a Cy Young past. He's thrown two straight complete games, has held hitters to a .162 average, has allowed one home run and has a 33/5 strikeout/walk ratio. Impressively, four of his starts have come against the Red Sox, Tigers, Orioles and Rangers, four of the AL's best offenses so far. In short, he's been dominant, maybe the best pitcher in baseball in April if you factor in the competition. Detroit's rookie left-hander has been impressive in his four starts -- allowing one run each time out (three of those on home runs). Smyly throws in the 90-93 range with his four-seamer, mixing in a slider and cut fastball and occasional changeup. He allowed two hits in six innings against the Yankees in his previous start.

3. Zack Greinke (3-1, 3.94) vs. Madison Bumgarner (4-1, 2.53), Brewers at Giants (Saturday, 4:05 ET)

Greinke had one blow-up start in which he allowed eight runs, but has otherwise allowed a total of five runs in his four other starts, two of which were wins over the Cardinals. I'd like to see Greinke get a little more economical with his pitches and prove he can pitch more than seven innings. Greinke pitched at least eight innings 10 times with the Royals in 2010, but has to do it with the Brewers. Bumgarner has reeled off four straight wins and has yet to walk more than two batters in a game.

Heat map of the week
Courtesy of Mark Simon we have a little comparison between Albert Pujols and red-hot Matt Kemp. One big difference has been their success with two strikes. Pujols has faced 50 two-strike plate appearances and has totaled 11 hits plus walks (and no home runs, of course). Kemp has faced 45 two-strike plate appearances but has 18 hits plus walks, including four home runs. Another big difference, as you can see on the heat map below on their overall production in different zones: Kemp is 8-for-12 (with five home runs) on pitches down the middle while Pujols is hitless in that area. Maybe that's reason for Angels fans to be optimistic: He's due to start pounding those mistakes.

Player on the hot seat: Mat Latos, Reds
The Reds gave up a lot to get Latos from the Padres in the offseason, a guy acquired to fit behind Johnny Cueto in the rotation, but in reality expected to be Cincy's best pitcher. He's been a huge disappointment, with one win in five starts. He had one seven-inning scoreless stint against the Giants, but has otherwise failed to fool many batters. Opponents are hitting .304 off him and he's fanned just 18 batters in 28.2 innings, after averaging 8.9 K's per nine the past two seasons. His velocity has been fine; hitters are just putting more balls in play. After hitters to swing and miss his slider 23 percent of the time last year, they're doing so 17 percent this season. He's also allowed a much higher line-drive percentage and his slider and sinker.

(Oh, yes, this doesn't mean Pujols isn't still on the hot seat.)

Player to watch: Bryce Harper
No introduction needed. He's up, he went 2-for-6 with a double, walk and sac fly in his two games and I'll be watching as many of his at-bats as possible this week. You can check him out on "Sunday Night Baseball" against the Phillies.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Perhaps the most phenomenal fact of life in baseball today is that major league teams continue to use first-round picks for high school pitchers. You could call it the Brien Taylor/Todd Van Poppel phenomenon. If you study the issue, it is just stunningly obvious that the frequency with which these draft picks pay off is something like one-third to one-quarter of the payoff rate for other first-round picks. It has been obvious for twenty years that this is a stupid, stupid game, to use a first-round pick for a high school pitcher -- yet every year, four to seven first-round picks are invested in these turkeys.
-- Bill James, "The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract"

That book came out in 2001, so the obvious question: Have things changed? Are high school pitchers still turkeys? Keith Law has a column looking back at the 2002 draft -- the infamous "Moneyball" draft, but also a year that included first-round high school selections Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels and Matt Cain. Pass the gravy, please.

The draft began in 1965. Through 1986 it included various secondary phases, primarily for those players who had been previously drafted. For the purpose of this piece and for what Bill James was referring to, I'm focusing on the regular June phase. First, to verify Bill's statement, let's compare high school pitchers versus college pitchers for the first 30 years of the draft. (Bill probably wrote the above in 2000, so couldn't have properly evaluated the late '90s drafts at that point.)

From 1965 through 1994, 167 high school pitchers were drafted in the first round (I did not count supplemental first-round picks). Nineteen of them would end up compiling a career Baseball-Reference.com WAR total of at least 10.0 -- or 11 percent of those selected. From 1965 through 1994, 140 college pitchers were drafted in the first round. Thirty-four compiled a career WAR of at least 10.0, or 24 percent. So using that arbitrary cutoff point as a measure of success, college pitchers were twice as likely to have a solid major league career.

Here, the top 20 pitchers in each grouping.


So it's pretty clear that drafting college pitchers was a better investment. And to show there isn't some bias based on draft position involved here, there were 33 college pitchers in this era selected in the top five picks and 34 high school pitchers.

What have we seen in the past 17 years, since 1995? There has been a philosophical change; there have been 157 college pitchers selected in the first round compared to 110 high school pitchers. In "Moneyball," Billy Beane memorably made an emphasis about drafting undervalued college players. In truth, that belief was already in motion by the 2002 draft, at least in terms of pitchers. Over the previous 10 drafts, there had been 94 college first-round pitchers compared to 66 high school first-rounders.

Obviously, many of the careers from the 1995-2011 draft years are still in progress or just beginning, so these numbers will change. So far, 18 college pitchers have accumulated at least 10 WAR (11 percent); 16 high school pitchers have accumulated at least 10 WAR (15 percent). Those 16 high school pitchers have also accumulated more WAR than the 18 college guys -- 382.7 to 295.6.

The top high school pitchers include Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, Josh Beckett, Cain, Greinke, Hamels, Jon Garland, Adam Wainwright, John Danks, Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley. High schoolers potentially on the rise (yet to accumulate 10 WAR) include Madison Bumgarner, Phil Hughes and Rick Porcello. The top college pitchers include Barry Zito, Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver, Tim Lincecum, Ben Sheets, Jeremy Guthrie, Mark Mulder, Matt Garza, Ricky Romero and David Price. Guys on the rise include Ian Kennedy, Max Scherzer, Daniel Bard, Brandon Morrow, Stephen Strasburg and Chris Sale.

So, front offices and scouts have flipped James' investment advice around. High school pitchers have become equal -- or better -- investments than college pitchers. So what happened? Some theories:

1. High school pitchers were "overdrafted" in early drafts. While college baseball wasn't as mature in the 1960s and 1970s as it is now, there was also bias against college players in the early years of the draft. For example, from 1965 through 1978 only 17 college pitchers were selected in the first round compared to 97 high school pitchers. This held true for position players as well. In 1971, for example, all 24 first-round picks were high school players. A college infielder named Mike Schmidt went in the second round. In 1976, only three high schoolers were drafted in the first round. Simply put, old-school baseball guys often preferred high school kids over college players for no other reason than they were high school kids.

2. Selection bias. If more kids (especially more talented kids) are playing college baseball than in the '60s and '70s, that could suggest only the best high school pitchers are now getting drafted in the first round. Instead of drafting high school arms and letting the rigors of pro ball weed out the best ones, front offices eventually realized the smarter approach was to let college baseball essentially do that weeding out -- whether it be from a talent level or from a pitcher's ability to avoid injury. Thus, the ratio slowly flipped toward more college pitchers getting selected.

3. Increased signing bonuses. When the Kansas City A's made Rick Monday the first No. 1 pick in 1965, they gave him a signing bonus of $104,000 -- actually far less than the $205,000 the Angels had given Wisconsin outfielder Rick Reichardt the year before. Bonus payments remained relatively stagnant for 20-plus year after that. In 1987, top pick Ken Griffey Jr. received $160,000 to sign. It's perhaps no coincidence that as bonus payments began escalating in the early '90s, the quality of high school first-round pitchers improved. Where before kids committed to college, the million-dollar bonuses provided more incentive to enter pro ball right out of high school.

4. Protecting young arms. This is arguably the biggest reason high school pitchers now fare better. Organizations are more careful with high school pitchers than they were in the 1960s, '70s and '80s and even into the mid-'90s, limiting innings and enforcing strict pitch counts in the minors. Some point to the heavy minor league workloads and subsequent arm injuries suffered by the Mets' trio of Paul Wilson, Bill Pulsipher and Jason Isringhausen in the '90s as a turning point in how prospects are protected; some point to Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, although their injuries occurred after reaching the majors. In truth, it's been a slow evolution over the past 20 years, from better medical treatment, better coaching and, yes, limiting pitch counts.

5. Better scouting. The top-rated kids get exposed to better competition now via showcase events, summer teams and so on. A kid in the 1970s may have played only against weak local competition. So scouts see pitchers performing against better hitters, maybe see their ability to adjust or throw more secondary pitches. It has to make the process evaluating 17- or 18-year-old kids a little easier. And, more simply, maybe scouts just do a better job now. "Moneyball" pokes fun at the "good face" anecdote old-time scouts used to judge, but it's also true that scouts did use that assessment at times. The days of situations like the Minnesota Twins drafting a high school outfielder named Kevin Brandt -- who would play just 47 professional games -- with the 11th overall pick because he impressed them during a batting practice session are long gone.

Now, all this doesn't mean drafting high school pitchers doesn't come without risk. After all, in that 2002 draft Greinke was drafted sixth, Hamels 17th and Cain 25th. Drafted third, fourth and fifth were three guys named Chris Gruler, Adam Loewen and Clint Everts.

Three high school pitchers.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

From beginning to end, this was baseball as it oughta be, any night and every night, from a first-pitch beginning to a dramatic finale. The Milwaukee Brewers came away with their second consecutive walk-off win when Ryan Braun's bases-loaded sac fly plated Nyjer Morgan in the bottom of the 10th for a 3-2 final. As a matter of odds, chance or simple fortune, it wasn’t really supposed to play out that way: Morgan ran through a stop sign, and thanks to the fallible human in blue as well as his own baserunning derring-do, he was ruled safe in what might be better called a sprint-off win, not a mere walk-off.

But from the start, this was one to watch. A contest between the Brewers with Zack Greinke on the mound, going up against baseball’s hottest batter and hottest team, Matt Kemp and the Los Angeles Dodgers? That’s a slice of baseball perfection, the everyday metronome of the season giving you something worth seeing, this night like every night. Add in a surprising pitching duel between between Greinke, the Brewers’ ace du jour, and Chris Capuano, a prodigal son come back to haunt Milwaukee. And add in another game between these two teams decided on the last at-bat, and you’ve got the makings of a rivalry forged on the field, the best way these things happen.

Nevertheless, high stakes ... in April? Well, no, of course not, every game counts the same, and the Dodgers weren’t going to go 9-1 every 10 times out. But after the Brewers’ late-game rally against the Dodgers on Tuesday night, when they won in the bottom of the ninth on George Kottaras two-run double off L.A.’s closer, Javy Guerra, you might have already had a sense that these two teams are more closely matched this time around than Milwaukee’s 14-win advantage from 2011 would suggest.

Morgan, ever the base-paths commando, gets credit for doing something wrong or foolhardy or gutsy or dumb, probably depending on your familiarity with base-out matrix, or perhaps your love or loathing of all things Tony Plush. But it’s more than that, and even Morgan’s scamper, ill-considered though it was, was simultaneously fun and decisive.

You might wonder how Braun, reigning National League MVP, went to the plate in a 10th-inning tie and got to swing a bat in that situation. Well, say what you will about the Dodgers’ Matt Guerrier, the man on the mound, but give the credit to Tuesday’s man, George Kottaras, because Kottaras drew a free pass with runners on second and third and one out. If Kottaras doesn’t do that, if he makes an out, it’s Braun standing on first base with an unintentional/intentional walk and Aramis Ramirez who gets to be johnny-on-the-spot. No Kottaras walk, and we might still be enjoying baseball from Milwaukee. Even that bit of batsmanship was set up by tactical failure -- Ron Roenicke’s reliable penchant for gambitry had Morgan pinch-run and Cesar Izturis pop away a bunt just two batters into the 10th.

These aren’t the only bits of consistency for the Brewers from this year to last. Early on, you could wonder which Greinke was going to show up, the ace he helped propel the Brewers into the postseason, or the incendiary device who got lit up in his first 11 starts last season once he came back from the DL, surrendering 6.1 runs per nine. One out and a triple into the night, watching Kemp plate Mark Ellis from third, you could wonder.

But Greinke settled down from there, but it was the sort of game where the stars weren’t the only ones who shined. Capuano, a man who spent seven years with the Brewers but two of them on the DL with career-threatening elbow problems, was ready to deliver the sort of start that might make Dodgers GM Ned Colletti look good, grinding out six innings to provide a quality start against a good Brewers' offense. If Capuano’s durable enough to join Aaron Harang as innings eaters at the back end of the rotation while Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley do their thing from the front end, the Dodgers will be in enough ballgames to contend.

A.J. Ellis may not get a ton of credit as the Dodgers’ internal choice to fulfill their catching needs this season, but he has been a stathead fave for years for his willingness to work for walks. It was his chopper in the fifth that plated a lead run, and it was his eighth-inning baserunner kill, nailing Carlos Gomez with a perfect peg from behind the plate, that took the bat out of Corey Hart's hands. And maybe, just maybe, he got the tag on Kemp’s throw from shallow center down on Morgan in time; history may not record it, even if instant replay might. Of course, his throwing error in the 10th makes him partially responsible for the outcome, but the unloved Ellis had his moments as well.

Going forward, the Dodgers were due to cool off, and two late-game losses in a row might represent that bit of karma. But with Kenley Jansen coming into his own as baseball’s next great set-up man, Guerra’s talent, and Josh Lindblom looking pretty good, late-game drama won’t always come at the Dodgers’ expense.

And for Milwaukee? They’re still good, surprising nobody on this or any night to come. In the broad strokes, with Greinke’s season tally at two good starts and one awful one, you can wonder if his Jekyll-Hyde act can go only so far if his rep as a Cy Young winner is going to have any enduring value. That’s not just significant for the Brewers now as they try to defend their NL Central crown, it’s important for Greinke immediately afterwards, because he’s lined up to be a free agent this winter. He’ll make his millions, to be sure, but you can wonder if Greinke’s a great bet for the highest of high rollers in the biggest of big markets -- and the media glare that comes with such things.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

On a packed Friday Baseball Today podcast with Mark Simon we exchanged thoughts on many pertinent topics, from struggling players to a weekend preview to former All-Star Jason Dickson (yep, he was an All-Star!).

1. From Thursday, was Zack Greinke really that bad, should Matt Garza have gotten the chance to finish his gem and what did the middle of the Twins order do that was so rare?

2. We take an in-depth look at the weekend schedule, with Albert Pujols at Yankee Stadium the headliner, but also it’s always about the Red Sox and which pitchers could be next to throw no-hitters?

3. When can we really start looking at sample sizes in baseball? Mark talks to a former manager and we each share thoughts.

4. Is there a legitimate statistical concern for Jose Reyes and Alex Rodriguez? Mark thinks so!

5. Our emailers have opinions on the quality starts stat, bunting, Dusty Baker’s style and much more!

So download and listen to Friday’s expertly produced Baseball Today podcast (by Frank Dale!) and please have a great weekend. Sunday night baseball is Angels-Yankees!

Stuff ...

• Baseball America has lists of the 10 youngest players in each full-season league. Mariners pitcher Erasmo Ramirez was the youngest player to make a major league roster, with a May 2, 1990 birthdate. Giancarlo Stanton is still one of the 10 youngest players in the National League.
• Walkoff Woodward looks at what happened to Justin Verlander and the Tigers in Wednesday's ninth inning.
• Neftali Feliz used his changeup a lot in his first start and he was pretty awesome.
• Dodger Thoughts author Jon Weisman has a piece in Variety exploring how TV networks can justify bidding billions to broadcast baseball games.
• Tristan Cockcroft has a fun look at early season paces. Yes, small sample size. It's still a fun to read.


• ESPN Insider Dan Szymborski looks at which closers are used most effectively -- ie, in high-leverage situations -- by their managers. Kudos to Mike Scioscia and Bruce Bochy.
• Franklin Rabon examines Dan Uggla's reverse-platoon split. Since 2009, Uggla is slugging nearly 50 points higher against righties.
• Our new Blue Jays blog looks at J.P. Arencibia's pitch-framing abilities. Pitch-framing is sort of the new trendy thing in defensive analysis, a big reason the Rays signed Jose Molina this offseason. Obviously, baseball people have always talked about this, but pitch f/x data allows catchers to be studied in this skill.
• One scout still believes Daniel Bard belongs in the bullpen.
• The Padres recalled Joe Wieland and Insider Eric Karabell looks at whether he can help the Padres (and fantasy owners).
• The Brewers have broken off talks with Zack Greinke about a contract extension.
• Will Freddy Galvis become a good player for the Phillies? Or is he ultimately just a younger version of Wilson Valdez? Michael Baumann ponders the question.
• Danny Duffy had a nice start for the Royals on Tuesday. OK, it was against the A's, but there many positives signs for the young left-hander.
• Jon Shields thinks the Mariners should start playing John Jaso more instead of Miguel Olivo. Jaso has yet to appear in game. The knocks against Olivo? He has trouble catching the ball and getting on base. Otherwise ... he's awesome!
• Nick Faleris looked at Brian Matusz's first start of the season for the Orioles. Remember, this is a guy everyone was calling a future ace after 2010.
• Baseball Prospectus has a list of 10 players who should receive contract extensions.
• Jorge Posada will throw out the first pitch at the Yankees' homer opener on Friday.
• Finally, Miami columnist Dan LeBetard was on ESPN Radio talking about the Ozzie Guillen situation.

The Milwaukee Brewers have returned all five rotation starters from 2011, a season that was almost certainly the best in franchise history other than 1982. It's a solid group that puts Milwaukee in position to reclaim its NL Central title. It is not, however, a rotation that should be considered elite or ranked among the 10 best in baseball. I put that out on Twitter last week and Brewers fans came attacking like badgers. Wisconsin badgers, I guess. So I called Tom Haudricourt, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's veteran Brewers beat writer and asked him for some perspective.

"They went so long without any starting pitching to speak of," Haudricourt said about Brewers fans, "and now they finally have some and they want some credit for it."

The Brewers' passionate fan base is rushing to fill Miller Park at a pace that has team officials expecting to exceed last season's franchise-record attendance mark of more than 3 million fans. Those fans vigorously defend reigning NL MVP Ryan Braun as if lab test results showing the presence of exogenous testosterone simply never existed. I realize watching Prince Fielder go 5-for-12 with two home runs to begin his Tigers career may send fans running and screaming into the streets of Sheboygan Falls but let's not bet the bratwurst that this 2012 rotation is a pass into the postseason.

Good versus great can be oddly subjective in baseball but a simple numbers crunch is a fair start. After the wave of Twitter outrage from Brewers fans, ESPN Stats & Information analyst Lee Singer ran some numbers and it turned out my suspicion was correct: Using 2011 Wins Above Replacement totals from Baseball-Reference.com for the five pitchers in each 2012 Opening Day rotation, Milwaukee's group does not rank among baseball's 10 best.

2012 starting rotations according to 2011 bWAR
1. Phillies, 22.5
2. Angels, 18.8
3. Tigers, 17.7
4. Yankees, 17.6
5. Diamondbacks, 16.5
6. Rays, 15.3
7. Red Sox, 14.8
8. Giants, 14.2
9. Dodgers, 13.5
10. Nationals, 12.9
11. White Sox, 11.9
12. Brewers, 11.7

"They're in the top group in the National League," Haudricourt said. "There might be other rotations that individually may rank better in across-the-board stats but this rotation just seems to work well in conjunction with their late-inning bullpen." After watching countless closers either land on the disabled list or implode to begin 2012, the Brewers' duo of Francisco Rodriguez and John Axford seems worth its weight in gold.

Jose Veras, acquired from Pittsburgh for Casey McGehee last December, gives Milwaukee a third reliable reliever. "Ron Roenicke seems really comfortable pulling the starters and giving it to the bullpen," Haudricourt said. "Sometimes your rotation is just better than its stats because of what it does in conjunction with the bullpen. They're very protective in terms of pitch counts -- you won't see any staggering 125- or 130-pitch counts." Indeed, the reliability of that bullpen and Roenicke's willingness to use it is one reason why Milwaukee pitchers posted only one complete game in 2011 but all five Brewers rotation members started at least 28 games and Milwaukee used only six starting pitchers all season.

Last season, Yovani Gallardo allowed more than three earned runs only three times in his last 16 starts. Zack Greinke had a 2.61 ERA over his final 16 starts. Gallardo, however, can't beat the Cardinals, the Brewers' NL Central rival who have now won five of their past six games in Milwaukee. Following last Friday's Opening Day drubbing in which he allowed three homers in a four-batter span, Gallardo is now 1-9 in 13 starts against St. Louis with a 6.24 ERA, including last year's postseason.

Saturday, Greinke continued to be unbeatable in a Brewers uniform at Miller Park. He's 12-0, 2.91 at home for the Brewers in the regular season with 126 strikeouts in 102 innings. He was, however, just 5-6, 4.70 on the road last season. Rotation aces win on the road and they win critical games against big rivals. Greinke said last month that he's "very comfortable" in Milwaukee and called the organization "amazing" but he's a free agent after the season, just hired a new agent last week and if you don't think Matt Cain's new $127.5 million contract just shot Greinke's price through the roof you're kidding yourself.

Shaun Marcum is also a free agent after this season. After going just 3-4 in 11 starts last August and September, Marcum turned in a 0-3, 14.90 postseason. Marcum was acquired from Toronto for top prospect Brett Lawrie, who may be headed toward superstardom with the Blue Jays. The deal could end up rivaling the 1992 trade that sent Gary Sheffield to the Padres for Ricky Bones, Matt Mieske and Jose Valentin as the worst in Brewers history. "When they traded for Marcum they had no idea they were going to be able to get Greinke and they didn't have enough starters," Haudricourt explained. "There's no question the trade is going to work out better in the long run for Toronto and the Brewers readily admit that. But they had close to an 'all-in' year, last year and they just decided to go for it. They knew it was going to bite them in the end."

Any organization which goes "all-in" deserves support from its fan base and kudos to the Brewers brass for not simply claiming tied hands. But if that gamble doesn't pay off tension can increase as the window narrows. Gallardo, Greinke, Marcum, Randy Wolf and Chris Narveson make up one of the National League's most competitive rotations, one certainly capable of bringing the postseason back to Milwaukee this year. Let's keep in mind, however, that it's a somewhat thin division in a league that fell another step behind the American League this winter.

Steve Berthiaume hosts "Baseball Tonight" on ESPN. Follow Steve on Twitter @SBerthiaumeESPN.

This is what will have American League pitchers and managers waking up in cold sweats all season long: Those stretches when Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder are both raking, eyes bulging as they pummel meaty fastballs over fences and into outfield seats.

Josh Beckett become the first pitcher to experience these forces of nature in action, as both hit two home runs off him in Detroit's 10-0 victory Saturday over Boston. Fielder hit one out to left field and a low, screaming bullet to right for his pair. Going the opposite way is nothing new for him; 11 of his 38 home runs in 2011 went to left or left-center. There were some concerns that Fielder would lose a few home runs moving from Miller Park to the more spacious environs of Comerica, so hitting one out to left is a good, early sign.

How dynamic is this pair? A season ago, Fielder hit .299/.415/.566 with 38 home runs; Cabrera hit .344/.448/.586 with 30 home runs. The last team with two players to hit 30 home runs with a .400 OBP? The 2006 Red Sox with Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz. Twelve teams since 2000 have had such a duo (or in the case of the 2004 Cardinals, three players):

2006 Red Sox: Ramirez, Ortiz
2005 Yankees: Alex Rodriguez, Jason Giambi
2004 Cardinals: Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen
2003 Yankees: Giambi, Jorge Posada
2002 Astros: Jeff Bagwell, Lance Berkman
2001 Rockies: Todd Helton, Larry Walker
2001 Cardinals: Pujols, Edmonds
2000 Cardinals: Edmonds, Mark McGwire
2000 Angels: Tim Salmon, Troy Glaus
2000 Astros: Bagwell, Moises Alou
2000 Mariners: Rodriguez, Edgar Martinez
2000 Giants: Barry Bonds, Jeff Kent

Of course, all of those pairs or threesomes did this during the high-offense steroids period. Six other teammates did it between 1995 and 1999. But before that? That previous team to have two such players was the 1969 Oakland A's with Reggie Jackson and Sal Bando. Throughout baseball history there have been only 34 such pairs. Here's another way to do this. Let's add OPS+ (adjusted on-base plus slugging percentage) as a third measuring stick. OPS+ adjusts a player's offensive production for home park and era. In 2011, Cabrera's OPS+ was 181, second in the American League. Fielder's was 164, fourth in the National League. Let's set a minimum of 30 home runs, .400 OBP and 150 OPS+.

This takes away some of steroids-era pairs and leaves us with 24 such teammates in baseball history. And six of those 24 were Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig.

And that, my readers, is the kind of company Cabrera and Fielder have the chance to join.

A few more notes from today's early games:

• Beckett served up five home runs, sending waves of sweats and swears throughout Red Sox Nation. He became just the fourth pitcher to allow five homers twice in his career, joining Tim Wakefield, Pat Hentgen and Jeff Weaver. Gordon Edes had a good piece on Beckett before his season debut, detailing his motivation for 2012. Beckett is a bit of an enigma, a guy usually viewed as an ace due to his postseason heroics with the Red Sox in 2007 and Marlins in 2003. But the facts also don't lie: He's finished in the top 10 in his league in ERA only twice, including last season with a 2.89 mark. Beckett has been homer-prone at various stages of his career, most notably in his first season with Boston, in 2006, when he gave up 36. It's only one start, of course, but considering the spring training thumb injury he insisted wasn't an injury, it puts Beckett on the early "keep an eye on him" watch list.
• Angels manager Mike Scioscia picked Game No. 2 to get disgruntled Bobby Abreu in the lineup, putting Abreu in left and moving Vernon Wells to center, sitting defensive whiz Peter Bourjos in the process. "I'm not calling this a day off for Peter, it's the second game, but it's a combination of that and trying to get some left-handed bats in the lineup," Scioscia told Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles. I can't imagine a more defensively challenged outfield pair than those two. Unable to see this game since I had the Red Sox-Tigers game as my local Fox broadcast, I tweeted Angels and Royals fans to ask how many of the 11 hits Dan Haren allowed fell just out of their reach. The consensus seemed to be two or three, although @dblesky wrote, "There were really only a couple. And one was glaring." It will be interesting to see how often Scioscia runs out this lineup, essentially to placate Abreu. I just don't see the Angels being a better team with that alignment and Bourjos on the bench.
• Zack Greinke had a dominant effort in the Brewers' 6-0 shutout over the Cardinals, allowing three hits in seven innings with no walks and seven strikeouts. I wrote this before the game, but here's why Greinke is a good Cy Young pick. Especially impressive were Greinke's economical 91 pitches.
• Tweet of the day after Daniel Hudson and the Diamondbacks beat the Giants for the second consecutive game:
  

  Good way to start the season. Two mistakes and I paid for it. But a win is a win. #sweepthegiants tomorrow! #GoDbacks
  
  — Daniel Hudson (@DHuddy41) April 7, 2012

In 2009 and 2010, Adam Wainwright was as good as just about any pitcher in baseball. He ranked third in adjusted ERA behind only Felix Hernandez and Roy Halladay. Only five guys threw more innings and only CC Sabathia won more games. Wainwright finished third and then second in the National League Cy Young voting.

He hurt his elbow in spring training last year and missed the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. His start Saturday against Zack Greinke is one of the more intriguing matchups of baseball's first weekend. Given Chris Carpenter's health issues, a successful return by Wainwright is even more imperative for the Cardinals.

Wainwright's signature pitch was his knee-buckling 12-to-6 curveball that he threw nearly 29 percent of the time in 2010. The only starters who threw a higher percentage of curveballs than Wainwright that year were Wandy Rodriguez and Gio Gonzalez. Two things made Wainwright's curve tough to attack: (1) He set it up with good velocity and location on his fastball, throwing 91-92 mph; (2) great location on the curve. Check the heat maps below: Wainwright spotted his curve low and away to left-handed hitters ... and low and away to right-handed hitters.



So while everybody's eyes will likely be on the radar gun, it may be Wainwright's command of his curve that tells us how he'll do as he returns. No matter what happens Saturday, it's an anticipated game for the Cardinals and their fans. "It really is a big deal," Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak told MLB.com. "I'm probably going to have a few butterflies before that game even starts, just knowing how hard he's worked to get to where he is."

Meanwhile, Greinke gets the ball for the Brewers on the heels of Yovani Gallardo's four-homer Opening Day stink bomb. If you want a Cy Young candidate in the National League not named Halladay, Kershaw or Lee, Greinke may be your guy. Greinke finished 16-6 with a 3.83 ERA in 28 starts in 2011, and while that 3.83 ERA might not impress you, it comes with a big caveat: an extremely unlucky average on balls in play in the first half of the season.

Greinke's BABIP in the first half was .349, which led to a 5.45 ERA even though he had 99 strikeouts and just 16 walks in 74.1 innings. In the second half, his BABIP returned to a more normal level of .304 and he posted a 2.59 ERA.

Here's a heat map of Greinke's pitch locations in the first and second halves of 2011. While this doesn't tell the whole story of setting up hitters and so on, you can see the hot points are pretty similar. It does suggest that Greinke was merely unlucky in the first half, with a few too many bloopers, flares and infield hits.



What does it mean? If Greinke pitches like he did in 2011, when he led the NL in strikeouts per nine innings at 10.5, he's more likely to come closer to that 2.59 ERA than 3.83. Greinke also loved pitching at home last season -- he went 11-0 in 15 starts while averaging 11.3 K's per nine. The one aspect Greinke needs to improve on to become a legit Cy Young contender -- and remember, he won the American League award in 2009 with the Royals -- is to pitch deeper into games. He pitched more than seven innings only twice last season.

After Gallardo's disaster, there's nothing the Brewers would like more than eight innings from Greinke and the chance to hand the ball to John Axford with the lead.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

I can't wait for the season to get going. You can't wait. Last October was the best we've had in years, and the offseason only fueled our baseball fever. Spring training is mercifully over. Let the games begin. Here are 100 reasons I'm pumped for the next seven months.

1. Albert Pujols in Anaheim. They call him The Machine, but Pujols had a few rusty bolts in 2011. He hit under .300 for the first time, his walk rate was down, and his extra-base-hit percentage was down. After a slow start through May (.267, nine home runs), he did hit much better after returning from his fractured forearm. He moves to a tougher division and will have to face the Rangers, A's and Mariners 19 times each -- with cavernous parks in Oakland and Seattle -- rather than the Cubs, Pirates and Astros. The pressure is on. The spotlight is bright. But machines are immune to all that, right?

2. Jim Thome's pursuit of a World Series title. He'll turn 42 in August and will play some first base until Ryan Howard returns. That's a pretty good story in itself (he hasn't played on the field since appearing in one game at first in 2008), but he's played in nine postseasons and reached two World Series without winning it all.

3. Jamie Moyer is back in the majors at age 49 and can surpass Jack Quinn as the oldest pitcher to win a game. Moyer's arsenal these days: an 80 mph fastball, a 70 mph changeup, a 65 mph curveball, a 55 mph slowball, a 20 mph Bugs Bunny ball and an 8 mph retirement community ball that bends time.

4. Justin Verlander's encore performance. Verlander threw 3,941 pitches in the regular season, the most since Livan Hernandez's 4,007 in 2005. Verlander added 360 more in the postseason. It's not necessarily a big deal -- Verlander's 2009 total is the third-highest since 2005 -- but you do wonder whether Jim Leyland will back off a little.

5. Roy Halladay's paintbrush.

6. Yu Darvish.

7. Yu Darvish's hair. Straight from Supercuts.

8. Adam Wainwright's return to the Cardinals' rotation. He was third in the 2009 NL Cy Young vote and second in 2010. He looked good this spring, pitching 18 2/3 innings and allowing just 11 hits. The strikeout rate wasn't great -- just nine K's -- but signs are positive a year after Tommy John surgery.

9. A full season of Stephen Strasburg, who was electric in his own return in September from TJ surgery in September 2010 -- his fastball averaged 95.8 mph, below the 97.3 he averaged in 2010 but still with enough velocity that it would have ranked No. 1 among starting pitchers. The big question for his season: How much the Nationals will limit his innings?

10. Jose Canseco's tweets.

11. Clayton Kershaw's slider. His fastball isn't too shabby, either. By the way, here's what Kershaw does in the offseason to stay in shape and get ready for the season.

12. Verlander, Halladay, Kershaw: three of the amazing generation of pitchers we get to enjoy. Maybe Darvish and Strasburg will join them. In 2011, 14 pitchers pitched at least 200 innings with an ERA of 3.00 or less. The last time we had even 10 such pitchers in one season was 1997, with 11. The last season with more than 14 was 1992, with 20. Yes, steroids are a small part of that. A small part. The best pitchers today are throwing harder and with meaner breaking stuff than we've ever seen. Guys like Kershaw and Halladay are relentless in their workout routines. It's not a lot of fun to be a hitter these days.

13. Well, Jose Bautista has a lot of fun.

14. A new generation of young hitters like Giancarlo Stanton, Eric Hosmer, Brett Lawrie, Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Starlin Castro and Jesus Montero. All will play their age-22 seasons in 2012.

15. Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez.

16. Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.

17. Will Cabrera win his first MVP award? He's finished fifth in the voting three times, fourth once and second once. Two things that could prevent him from winning:

A. Austin Jackson's on-base percentage. Cabrera hit .388 with runners in scoring position in 2011 but drove in "just" 105 runs.
B. Fielder. Batting behind Cabrera and his .400-plus OBP will give Fielder more RBI opportunities. If he ends up driving in 15 to 20 more runs than Cabrera, they could split votes.

Five other all-time greats who have never won an MVP award: Derek Jeter, Eddie Murray, Mike Piazza, Al Kaline, Manny Ramirez.

18. Cabrera playing third base. With Fielder at first base, the Tigers could have the worst first baseman and worst third baseman in baseball. (And, please, don't defend Fielder's defensive prowess at first base. He's better than Adam Dunn, I suppose ... but Dunn is a DH.)

19. Defensive runs saved!

Your leaders by position in 2011:

C -- Matt Wieters
1B -- Adrian Gonzalez
2B -- Ben Zobrist
3B -- Evan Longoria
SS -- Brendan Ryan
LF -- Brett Gardner
CF -- Austin Jackson
RF -- Jason Heyward

20. The Sandman.

21. The fans in Milwaukee. The Brewers drew a franchise-record 3.071 million fans in 2011. Depressed over losing Fielder? Hardly. They'll surpass that in 2012.

(Read full post)

Considering the Phillies have three Cy Young candidates by themselves, it's not easy picking a three-man Cy Young ballot in the National League. Roy Halladay collected 14 of 39 first-place votes to edge out Clayton Kershaw, with nine different pitchers receiving first-place votes. Aces everywhere, it seems.

Points on a 7-4-3 basis.

Spring stats mean nothing! But they're fun to look at. A few highlights ... and lowlights (stats from major league games only):

• Some people haven't bought in on Paul Goldschmidt as they worry about the strikeouts, but one reason I do like him is he'll draw some walks to go with the power: He's hitting .265 with three homers, but with 12 walks (and 13 strikeouts).
• Josh Collmenter hasn't pitched well for Arizona: Five walks and just four strikeouts in 12 innings. He'll start in the rotation but you wonder how soon before we see Trevor Bauer.
• Braves prospect Julio Teheran has somehow allowed nine home runs in 13 innings.
• Jeff Samardzija earned a spot in the Cubs' rotation by showing good stuff but just as impressively has walked just one batter in 20 innings. This from a guy who averaged 5.1 walks per nine innings in relief in 2011.
• Not good news for the Cubs: First baseman Bryan LaHair has 16 strikeouts and one walk. Is the 29-year-old Triple-A vet pressing now that he's been given a chance to start after hitting .331 at Iowa? His SO/BB ratio at Triple-A was 111/60.
• Joey Votto is hitting .214 without a home run. I like how people will make a big deal when somebody does well ... but not a big deal when a star player doesn't do well. Again, spring stats ... for entertainment purposes only!
• Dexter Fowler has had a miserable spring for the Rockies, hitting .118 in 51 at-bats with 16 strikeouts.
• Clemens has pitched five scoreless innings for the Astros. Paul Clemens, that is.
• Matt Kemp says he wants to go 50-50. He's not going to do it swinging like this: 21 strikeouts and one walk. Ouch.
• Carlos Zambrano has 14 walks in 17.2 innings. But 18 strikeouts. So ... I think it's safe to say nobody knows what to expect from Big Z.
• Zack Greinke has perhaps been the most impressive pitcher this spring with a 28/2 strikeout/walk ratio and no home runs allowed. That's pretty tough to do in Arizona, where the ball flies.
• Sticking with the Brewers, Jonathan Lucroy is hitting .513 (20-for-39). This has nothing to do with that .513 average, but I like Lucroy as a breakout candidate.
• Jason Bay hasn't homered or driven in a run for the Mets and has petitioned to move in the spring training fences.
• Roy Halladay has allowed six home runs in 20 innings. He gave up 10 in 233.2 innings last season.
• Is this the year Pedro Alvarez breaks out? Umm ... well, with 20 K's and one walk I guess we can be positive and make a Matt Kemp comparison.
• One of my sleeper relievers of the year is Brad Brach of the Padres; he's looked good with a 14/2 K/BB ratio.
• What will the Giants do with Brandon Belt? He's hitting .407 with seven doubles and three homers in 59 at-bats.
• Adam Wainwright has a 1.45 ERA for the Cardinals but just nine strikeouts (and six walks) in 18.2 innings.
• Davey Johnson says he wants to bat Ian Desmond leadoff. He has 18 strikeouts and two walks while hitting .299.

First the SweetSpot network took on the AL teams. Now they look at the NL. Which players are bloggers most excited to watch this season, and why?

Arizona Diamondbacks: Justin Upton

Upton was finally healthy for an entire season in 2011, and met all the lofty expectations placed on him in the second year of a six-year, $51.25 million contract signed when he was 22. He set career highs in homers (31), RBI (88) and stolen bases (21, caught nine times), while compiling a .289/.369/.529 line. Through their age-23 season, there have been only four others to match Upton’s 91 homers, 62 stolen bases and 119 OPS+: Alex Rodriguez, Jose Canseco, Ken Griffey Jr. and Orlando Cepeda. Pretty elite company, and Upton still has time to mature as a player and team leader. I’m looking forward to watching this multifaceted young man do his thing again in 2012. -- Diane Firstman, Value Over Replacement Grit

Atlanta Braves: Jason Heyward

A healthy Heyward has to be the player Braves fans are most excited to see this season. Through injuries, bad habits developed while playing injured and benchings, just about everything that could have gone wrong for such a talent did go wrong last year. Despite all of that, Heyward never hung his head or complained and actually managed to produce slightly above-league-average value in right field. Heyward has reportedly straightened his swing out this offseason and has really worked hard to get his game back on track. If Heyward can get a little more elevation on his swing, while maintaining the other aspects of his rookie performance, Braves fans could once again witness a once-in-a-generation talent leading the team to a successful season. -- Franklin Rabon, Capitol Avenue Club

Chicago Cubs: Travis Wood

In 2010, Wood made his big league debut for the Reds in an outing against the Cubs. He was brought in this offseason as part of the deal that sent Sean Marshall packing. For some, that was a disappointment considering Wood’s ERA last year was 4.84, but if we look beyond that we see that Wood posted a FIP ERA of 4.06, and Bill James projects him for an ERA of 3.75 in 2012. Also factor in that Great American Ballpark is a tough place to pitch; Wood had a 5.30 in the Gap vs. 3.58 on the road. Wrigley is not the hitters’ park we’ve all been told it is, primarily due to the wind blowing in often early in the year. The move from Cincinnati should do a lot toward boosting Wood’s production and confidence. -- Joe Aiello, View From the Bleachers

Cincinnati Reds: Mat Latos

Anticipation is building steadily for Latos' debut in a Cincinnati uniform. At 24 years of age and with a couple of excellent seasons already under his belt, the sky is the limit for him. For Reds fans, there is the hope that the club will have a legitimate ace at the top of the rotation for the first time in a couple of decades. Yes, there is reason for legitimate excitement in the Queen City. -- Chad Dotson, Redleg Nation

Colorado Rockies: Troy Tulowitzki

It’s a debate in my mind between Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. Both have tremendous gloves, bats and arms. Tulo trained this offseason with Jason Giambi in Las Vegas, and one could extrapolate some motivation from Dan O'Dowd's offseason acquisitions and trades. (O'Dowd believes the team needs leaders and better clubhouse guys, so what does that say about Tulo who plays the most important position on the field, is signed through 2020 and the face of the franchise?). What will Tulo do this year? I think 30 homers, Gold Glove-level defense and solidifying his place as the best player in baseball is a sure bet. Are the playoffs a sure bet for the Rockies? MVP for Tulo? I can't wait to see! -- Travis Lay, Blake Street Bulletin

Houston Astros: Jordan Lyles

With all of the changes, everyone seems to have forgotten that Lyles was recently the Astros’ top prospect. How quickly a young player that showed real promise last year has become overlooked in Houston. He's only 21 years old and had a number of very promising starts last year, posting a fair 4.41 ERA through July before running out of gas and getting shelled in August and September. He clearly needs to continue to build his stamina and strengthen himself to last the entire season. I'm interested to see how he continues to progress and if we can see him grow into the kind of player that can withstand the rigors of an entire major league season. I don't know how the Astros faithful have forgotten about Lyles so fast, but I think they'll be quickly and pleasantly reminded why he was considered a top prospect. -- Austin Swafford, Austin’s Astros 290 Blog

Los Angeles Dodgers: Kemp and Kershaw

Heaven knows it's hard not to be excited about the return of Juan Uribe or the potential of having Juan Rivera for a full season. But even so, there's a small, small part of me that is intrigued by these fellas named Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw. They made a bit of an impression last year, and I can't say I'm not going to be, well ... OK, hanging on their every swing and pitch. But to avoid being too reliant on last year's stars, the new Dodger Roadrunner, Dee Gordon, will also be an exciting player to watch. -- Jon Weisman, Dodger Thoughts

Miami Marlins: Logan Morrison

The player I'm truly most excited to see don a Marlins uniform this season is Logan Morrison. Following a splendid sophomore season in 2011, Morrison enters the new season as one of the game's top outfielders in the National League. With a solid approach and some power, a full season from Morrison could result in at least five additional wins for the Fish -- assuming Morrison can remain healthy. -- David Gershman, Marlins Daily

Milwaukee Brewers: Zack Greinke

Last season, the Brewers didn't even get to see their prized acquisition participate in spring training, as Greinke broke a rib playing pickup basketball and missed all of spring and the first month of the season. This season, no basketball for the former Cy Young award winner. He'll be there through spring training and Brewer fans hope to avoid the slow start he suffered through last season. Greinke posted just a 5.63 ERA despite an 80:12 K:BB ratio in May and June last season (mostly thanks to eight home runs) before calming down in the second half. Greinke finished strong, posting a 2.80 ERA thanks to a .233/.293/.373 line allowed in July, August and September. -- Jack Moore, Disciples of Uecker

New York Mets: David Wright

After a winter of discontent for Mets fans, it’s hard to be excited about anyone in particular. The team is in desperate financial straits, is slashing payroll at record rates, and appears destined to finish in last place. Wright, the one player for whom I reserve excitement, may not even be on the team after July 31. Still, I’m highly anticipating his 2012 performance, because after two disappointing seasons I’m convinced that Wright has too much pride to have a third. For the first time in his career, the Mets are “his” team -- he’s the de facto leader, the man who sets the example for everyone else. Chances are, Wright is determined to have a career year, and will pound opposing pitching with a savage vengeance -- all in the name of leading the Mets to a less-than-90-loss season. -- Joe Janish, Mets Today

Philadelphia Phillies: Antonio Bastardo

It was easy to be impressed by the sustained excellence of Atlanta's Jonny Venters last season, but Bastardo was quietly in the same neighborhood. Bastardo had a monster 2011 in which he struck out nearly 11 batters per nine innings and held opponents to a .524 OPS. If he can even approach his 2011 performance, Bastardo, along with Jonathan Papelbon and the Phillies' army of young guys who throw hard (Mike Stutes, Justin De Fratus, David Herndon and so on), gives the Phillies' bullpen the potential to be one of the best in the National League. -- Michael Baumann, Crashburn Alley

Pittsburgh Pirates: Pedro Alvarez

While Andrew McCutchen remains eminently exciting, we have a firm grasp on his star-level capabilities. I’m more excited to see whether Alvarez can rebound from his terrible sophomore season and get back to where his debut left off. The Pirates have a chance at a bright future, but all of their elite prospects are several years away. If there is any hope to be a competitive team in 2012, Alvarez has to give McCutchen and Neil Walker some help offensively. He has barely played a full season of games (169), and there is still time for him to meet the expectations that come as a No. 2 overall pick. Hey, Alex Gordon finally did. -- Paul Sporer, Pitt Plank

St. Louis Cardinals: Adam Wainwright

Despite losing everyone's perennial favorite player to watch to free agency, the defending champs have several captivating players in 2012. Partly because fans haven't seen him in a year and partly because he throws one of the most entertaining curveballs in the game, Wainwright will be a sight for sore eyes as he comes back from Tommy John surgery. But the player with whom Wainwright will forever be linked in fans' memories, Carlos Beltran, also figures to be a pivotal and exciting addition to the post-Pujols roster. -- Matt Philip, Fungoes

San Diego Padres: Carlos Quentin

The acquisition of Quentin brings energy, excitement and more total bases (210 in 2011 with the White Sox) and home runs (24) than any Padres player had last year. The Padres now employ two hitting coaches -- a model just a few MLB teams use -- as Phil Plantier and Alonzo Powell help with the workload hitting instruction requires. Quentin plays hard and he will help change the dynamics in the clubhouse. With the Padres' deep farm system and strong pitching, Quentin just might be the player to add the much needed spark of power in the middle of the order. -- Anna McDonald

San Francisco Giants: Buster Posey

I think I can speak for Giants fans everywhere when I say the player that I'm most excited to see play this season is Posey, and it's not even close. His injury in 2011 was a black mark on a year that we'd all like to forget. Beyond the numbers, Posey has quickly become the face of the Giants. He's young, energetic, talented and -- for us fans -- we hope healthy. Regardless of what happens, I'll be happy to see him back on the field in 2012. -- Chris Quick, Bay City Ball

Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg

How could it be anyone but Strasburg? When healthy, the most hyped pitching prospect in over a decade has delivered some fabulous pitching performances, and yet it feels like he is just scratching the surface of what he can do. He's as equally likely to blow guys away for a double-digit K performance as he is to shut a team down and let just two guys reach first over eight innings. He looked so good at the end of last year that the feeling is the only thing that can stop him in 2012 are the limits imposed by his own team to protect his recovering arm. -- Harper Gordek, Nationals Baseball