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The Philadelphia Phillies are 23-24, they've been outscored by 31 runs, Roy Halladay is on the disabled list, Ryan Howard hasn't hit and Cole Hamels can't win. So the Phillies eventually will be sellers at the trade deadline, right? I don't think so. Here are 10 reasons why.

1. Cliff Lee is an ace.

Remember him? Finished third in the Cy Young voting back in 2011. Pitches 200-plus innings every year. Can throw a fastball over a postage stamp while blindfolded. He's still pretty good. OK, his three-hit shutout Wednesday came against the Marlins. It still counts. He's 5-2, his ERA is 2.48, he's one inning shy of leading the majors in innings pitched and opponents are hitting .227 against him. He's one of the best pitchers in baseball.

2. Cole Hamels will pitch better.

Hamels is 1-7 with a 4.45 ERA and has struggled with his command. The Phillies have won just one of his 10 starts. In a way, this is good news. You really think Hamels will go 3-21? That the Phillies will win just three of the 30 or so starts Hamels will make? Of course not. So the fact that the Phillies are 23-24 while playing worse than the Marlins or Astros when Hamels pitches means they could easily be worse than 23-24. But they're not.

3. Kyle Kendrick is actually good now.

As Bill Baer wrote at the end of April, this is a new-and-improved Kendrick over the previous mediocre editions. Basically, Kendrick has stopped throwing so many cutters to left-handers and started using his changeup more often. It has given him a strikeout pitch against lefties and helped hold them to a .240/.290/.380 (BA/OBP/SLG) line against him this season, a big improvement compared to the .268/.341/.458 mark from 2010 to 2012.

4. Michael Young hasn't been horrible.

He hasn't been great, hitting .287 with just one home run, but for some reason, he has started drawing walks (23 this year compared to 33 all of last season with the Rangers). That's given him a fine .378 on-base percentage. If he keeps that walk rate up, Philadelphia manager Charlie Manuel should actually consider moving him into the leadoff spot -- especially considering Young's tendency to ground into rally-killing double plays (11, most in the majors). It's not so much that he hasn't been a big positive, but he hasn't been the gaping wound many sabermetric analysts projected. Take that, smart guys!

5. Delmon Young isn't good at baseball.

No, no, no, this is another good thing. The Phillies will eventually realize they'll need a better right fielder. Can you say Andre Ethier? Actually, he and Young would make a nice platoon.

6. The bullpen will do better.

The Phillies rank 27th in the majors with a 4.67 bullpen ERA. I think they have enough quality arms down there (14th in strikeout percentage, for example) to improve. Well, assuming Chad Durbin doesn't keep getting used.

7. The Nationals just might not be that good.

The Phillies are just one game behind the Nationals in the standings. Their run differentials are nearly the same -- minus-26 for Washington, minus-31 for Philadelphia -- but nobody is suggesting the Nationals sell off. That still leaves the Braves, a team the Phillies still have to play 16 times. In fact, the Phillies haven't played the Nationals yet, so they have 19 games remaining against them. So, umm ... they control their own destiny!

8. Even if the Phillies decide to dump, what do they have to dump?

OK, you could trade Chase Utley, but you're not going to get a franchise prospect in return for three months of Utley's services (yes, everyone can point to the Mets getting Zack Wheeler for Carlos Beltran in 2011, but that's a rarity). You could trade Lee, although his salary is so high -- $25 million each of the next two years with a possible $27.5 million vesting option in 2016 -- that he might not bring much in return, either. You're not going to get anything for Delmon Young or Michael Young. In other words, trading assets isn't really the way to start a youth movement because you don't have valuable assets to deal. That leaves general manager Ruben Amaro with the option of trying to acquire players other teams might be looking to dump -- such as an Ethier, who probably wouldn't cost much if the Phillies are willing to absorb part of his contract.

9. Roy Halladay might return this year.

He just headed to Florida to begin rehabbing from his shoulder surgery, and everyone is hopeful he can return in late August. Hey, you never know.

10. Big-market teams don't give up!

Well, OK, the Red Sox did a year ago, but that's because the Dodgers offered a gift too generous to turn down. The Phillies aren't going to find a taker for Howard's contract.

Look, I don't believe the Phillies are good enough to beat the Braves or Nationals, but the wild card isn't a crazy impossibility. They have a tougher schedule ahead, with 35 games left against the Braves and Nationals and only 19 against the Marlins and Mets. Manuel's resistance to doing things such as platooning Howard or admitting that Delmon Young can't or shouldn't play right field is an obstacle. Michael Young might stop drawing walks. Utley just missed a game with a sore rib cage, so who knows when he'll miss a chunk of action.

If the Phillies trade for a couple of bats in the outfield, however, you never know. It certainly doesn't seem in Amaro's nature to concede a playoff berth. Look for the Phillies to be buyers.

There is no scientific way to pick an all-underrated team. Well, I suppose there is some formula we could come up with, but that would be about as much fun as watching Brendan Ryan take batting practice. So let's go with an unscientific approach: my gut instinct. Plus how many times Eric Karabell and I talk about these guys being underrated at dinner. (He's sick of me bringing up Kyle Seager every Monday night. I remind him he's the only good position player right now on the Mariners.)

So here we go: The 2013 SweetSpot All-Underrated team, guys who don't seem to receive as much national acclaim as they deserve. Note: It's hard to be underrated if you play for an East Coast team, especially ones named "Yankees" or "Red Sox."

C -- Jonathan Lucroy, Brewers
Had a breakout season with the bat last year, hitting .320 with 12 home runs in between a stint on the DL for breaking his hand when a suitcase fell on it. Aside from his offense, statheads know Lucroy as one of the best pitch-framers in the business. Assuming he stays away from suitcases, the Brewers will reap benefits from his team-friendly contract: He'll make $15 million through 2017.

1B -- Allen Craig, Cardinals
Craig is still looking for his first home run of 2013, but a year ago he replaced Albert Pujols and hit .307/.354/.522 -- that's a higher on-base and slugging percentage than Pujols had with the Angels. Craig hit over .300 in the minors but his lack of a defensive home kept him off prospect lists and he didn't play 100 games in a major league season until last year, when he was already 27. He's a late bloomer but that doesn't mean he can't rake.

2B -- Neil Walker, Pirates
Unlike Craig, Walker seemed to spend forever on prospect lists, first as a catcher, then as a third baseman. He's settled in at second base, but playing for Pittsburgh his solid ability at the bat goes unnnoticed. He's not a star, but a solid contributor who should hit .280 with 12-15 home runs and adequate defense.

3B -- Kyle Seager, Mariners
Seager got off to a bad start and Karabell told me ESPN fantasy owners were dropping him like Raul Ibanez drops flies. Oh, the rash judgments of April. After a two-hit night Monday, Seager is up to .276/.337/.487. Unheralded coming up through the Seattle system, he has proved to be a better hitter than his North Carolina teammate, Dustin Ackley.

SS -- Brandon Crawford, Giants
OK, OK ... do I think his hot start with the bat is for real? No. Crawford has never really hit. But he's kind of a poor man's Andrelton Simmons, and while everyone raves about Simmons' ability in the field, nobody talks much about Crawford's. Just show them your ring, Brandon.

LF -- Josh Willingham, Twins
Willingham has put up good numbers at the plate for years -- including a monster 35-homer, 110-RBI season last season -- but he has played for the Marlins, Nationals, A's and Twins when they all had bad seasons and has never appeared in a postseason game. He may get that chance this year if the Twins trade him to a contender. (Not that the Twins can't contend! You never know!)

CF -- Shin-Soo Choo, Reds
He's finally getting some recognition thanks to his hot start (.366 average, better-than-Votto .521 OBP), but even then some people just want to talk about his shaky defense in center. He was a good player for the Indians for several years before coming to Cincy and I see his first All-Star Game in his future.

RF -- Norichika Aoki, Brewers
He came over from Japan last year and quietly hit .288/.355/433, lashed out 51 extra-base his, stole 30 bases and played a very good right field. He also made appearances as Bernie Brewer and at least four times raced as the Italian sausage.

SP -- Hisashi Iwakuma, Mariners
Quick: Which starting pitcher has led the AL in ERA since last July 1? I hope you guessed Iwakuma. In 20 games, he has a 2.44 ERA, edging out Justin Verlander's 2.51 mark, and held batters to a .225 average. He's off to a great start in 2013, with a 1.69 ERA through four starts and just 12 hits in 26.2 innings. His fastball isn't overpowering, but he gets away with throwing 90 mph fastballs up in the zone and mixing a good splitter.

SP -- Mike Minor, Braves
I'll break my East Coast rule to include Minor, who also has been dominant since last July 1, with a 2.00 ERA that is second in the majors only to teammate Kris Medlen. I believe he's for real.

What do you think? Whom would you put on your All-Underrated Team?

By the way, check out the video. Who do I think is overrated? You may be surprised.

From Buster Olney's blog today :

Ryan Howard has been hammering the ball this spring, driving the ball the other way; being out with an injury, he said, allowed him to refocus and review videotape from 2008 and realize that he had stopped concentrating on taking the ball to left-center and left field.

My first thought on reading that: Is that just something a player says, especially one who has been in decline like Howard? If true, why would a player deviate for three years from something that made him one of the most feared hitters in the league?

The blog cites Howard looking at video from 2008. I don't have data from 2008 from ESPN Stats & Information, but I do have data from 2009. But that's OK; Howard was actually better in '09 than '08 (.279/.360/.571 versus .251/.339/.543), so whatever was working was working both years.

Let's ignore last year, since he was recovering from the Achilles injury suffered in the 2011 playoffs, and compare 2009 to 2011. In 2011, he hit .253/.346/.488. Here are his various rate stats for 2008, 2009 and 2011:


The main thing to take away from this: He hit fewer home runs primarily because he was hitting fewer home runs on the fly balls he hit. His strikeout and walk rates weren't any worse than in '08 and '09.

Now, let's compare his hit chart from 2009 (on the left) versus his hit chart from 2011:



Do you see much difference there? I don't.

Breaking down the numbers:

2009: 17 of 45 home runs hit to left or left-center (38 percent)
2011: 10 of 33 home runs hit to left or left-center (30 percent)

2009: 15.5 percent of fly balls hit to left or left-center were home runs
2011: 10 percent of fly balls hit to left or left-center were home runs

2009: 113 balls in play hit to left or left-center (26.0 percent of all balls in play)
2011: 102 balls in play hit to left or left-center (26.2 percent of all balls in play)

I see no evidence that Howard's approach somehow changed between 2008 and 2012. He was hitting the ball to left field and left-center just as frequently. The only evidence is that he's not hitting as many home runs -- which, to me, indicates a guy whose bat speed has probably slowed down just a whisker.

I have no doubt Howard believes he needs to hit the ball to the opposite field more often. That was a big part of his success, his enormous raw power allowing him to seemingly flick the ball over the fence in left-center. It's also possible he's working only to fix what happened when he returns midseason last year from injury (although five of his 14 home runs were hit to left or left-center). The numbers, however, have shown a player in decline for several seasons now. Hey, I hope he rebounds -- it's fun watching Howard smash a lot of home runs -- but the odds of him hitting 45 home runs again are slim.

Last weekend, I presented the top 10 teams in my personal power rankings. That was before the Blue Jays officially acquired R.A. Dickey, so I updated my top 10 after that trade, and, to spur on more debate, now present the rest of my rankings. Agree or disagree, but I do think this is the most parity we've seen in a long time. It's why the Orioles and A's were able to surprise this past season and why we will undoubtedly see another surprise team in 2013. It's a great time to be a baseball fan.

1. Nationals
Most talented rotation in the majors, deep lineup, depth. Re-signing Adam LaRoche to add another lefty power bat will help.

2. Reds
Superb rotation could be better if the Aroldis Chapman transition works, bullpen is deep enough to absorb his loss and Shin-Soo Choo provides a needed leadoff hitter.

3. Yankees
I think they can stretch things out more season with a deep rotation, excellent bullpen and power. Remember, they had the largest run differential in the American League last season.

4. Tigers
Deep rotation, great 1-2 punch with Miggy and Prince, and Torii Hunter and Victor Martinez should improve the lineup.

5. Braves
Left-handed power, power bullpen and a young team that could improve from last year's 94 wins.

6. Blue Jays
Addition of Dickey adds a needed No. 1 to a rotation that could be dominant if Josh Johnson and Brandon Morrow remain healthy.

7. A's
Young teams that show big improvement are usually for real, and this team has a solid rotation, a strong outfield and power arms in the bullpen.

8. Dodgers
Have to love the Clayton Kershaw-Zack Greinke combo and an offense with big upside if Matt Kemp and Adrian Gonzalez come close to 2011 levels.

9. Rangers
I think the rotation is playoff-caliber with Yu Darvish, Matt Harrison, Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando, Martin Perez and Colby Lewis.

10. Cardinals
Have to replace Kyle Lohse, but they'll score plenty of runs as long as Carlos Beltran (36 years old in April) and Matt Holliday (33 in January) keep producing.

11. Rays
Still some holes in the lineup, and replacing James Shields' 220-plus innings won't be that easy, but underestimate the Rays at your own risk.

12. Angels
Oddsmaker Bovada.lv has the Angels with the second-best odds to win the World Series (behind the Blue Jays), but I see a rotation with a lot of question marks behind Jered Weaver, and Josh Hamilton only replaces Hunter, who was terrific in 2012.

13. Giants
I discussed my issues with the Giants here. I could be wrong, although our friends at Bovada only put the Giants tied for ninth in their World Series odds.

14. Diamondbacks
Their run differential wasn't much different than the Giants last year, and they've added Brandon McCarthy, infield depth and still have Justin Upton.

15. Phillies
I want to say we're all underestimating a team that includes Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, but then I see an outfield of Darin Ruf, Ben Revere and Domonic Brown, and an infield defense that includes Michael Young and Ryan Howard and 30-somethings Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley.

16. Brewers
They can score runs -- most in the National League last season -- and if the bullpen regroups after 2012's gruesome late-inning efforts, this team could surprise.

17. Red Sox
There will be no expectations after the disaster in 2012 (the franchise's worst record since 1965), but I see a big rebound coming.

18. Royals
I'll buy -- but I'm not buying a playoff spot. Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas have to take huge leaps forward ... or the Royals could be headed for another rebuild.

19. Orioles
Last season's 93-win playoff team provided a beautiful ride, but the Orioles haven't added that big bat they need.

20. Padres
Young team is moving in the right direction after winning 76 games in 2012. Can rotation improve to push Pads over .500?

21. Mariners
Mariners have pursued a big bat all offseason but were only able to pick up Kendrys Morales, and he cost them Jason Vargas, opening up a 200-inning hole in the rotation. Looks like 2014 before Mariners can make a push in the tough AL West.

22. Pirates
Still no No. 1 or even No. 2 starter (sorry, A.J. Burnett is a No. 3 at best) and not enough support for Andrew McCutchen. One of these years, Pirates fans, one of these years.

23. White Sox
No A.J. Pierzynski, a declining Paul Konerko, good year/off year Alex Rios due for an off year. Then again, White Sox had a bigger run differential in 2012 than the Tigers.

24. Cubs
Rotation of Edwin Jackson, Jeff Samardzija, Travis Wood, Scott Baker and Scott Feldman could be competitive, but offense won't be.

25. Mets
At least Mets fans can dream of a future rotation that includes Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Jonathon Niese and Noah Syndergaard. Unfortunately, the 2013 version still includes Frank Francisco and a bunch of fourth outfielders.

26. Marlins
Giancarlo Stanton still makes this team worth watching on a daily basis.

27. Indians
Getting Trevor Bauer in the Choo deal added a much-needed starting pitcher prospect. Unfortunately, much of the rest of rotation remains suspect.

28. Twins
Kevin Correia, Vance Worley, Mike Pelfrey ... what, Rich Robertson and Sean Bergman weren't available?

29. Rockies
At least the Twins have a direction as they wait for young position players to reach the majors. I have no clue what the Rockies are doing, intend to do, want to do, wish to do or hope to achieve.

30. Astros
Welcome to the AL West, boys.

The Phillies are in an interesting and unfamiliar position this offseason. Finishing at 81-81, they watched the playoffs from home for the first time since 2006, a result of a rash of injuries and under-performing players, particularly the young arms in the bullpen. With one of baseball's largest payrolls, they have the capacity to quickly bounce back from yesterday's mistakes by acquiring premier talent via free agency.

It isn't as simple as paying the most money for the best players, however. Some players come with risks, some aren't worth the money they are requesting, and some aren't very likely to be as productive going forward. That is why the Phillies, eager to reclaim the NL East throne from the Washington Nationals, need to be cautious and studious this winter. Here are five strategies the Phillies should utilize for a more successful 2013 season.

5. Avoid Josh Hamilton

Hamilton is reported to be expecting Prince Fielder money. That is, a contract in excess of $200 million. Back in January, Fielder signed with the Tigers on a nine-year, $214 million contract. Hamilton won't get anything close to nine years because he turns 32 in May, but as one of baseball's best hitters, he can put the onus on other teams to prove how much they need his bat.

The Phillies don't need to think very hard to come up with a contract given to a player older than 30 that hasn't turned out very well. In April 2010, GM Ruben Amaro agreed to a five-year, $125 million contract extension with first baseman Ryan Howard that covers his age 32-36 seasons. Lauded at the time, it has since turned out to be the signature blunder of the Amaro era, hamstringing the Phillies in many ways.

It isn't as if Hamilton is an outlier older player worthy of the risk. His injury history is long and mysterious. Just in the past two years, he has missed time because of your standard foot and groin injuries, but also sinus problems and migraines. Older players don't become more durable, even with today's era of incredible medical knowledge and technology. Signing Hamilton to a long-term deal not only has problems at the end of the road, but right at the start as well.

4. Embrace the platoon

When you think of platoons, you probably think of the 2012 Oakland Athletics, utilizing platoons at catcher, first base, second base and designated hitter. Sometimes it is borne of necessity; other times of luxury. The Phillies are somewhere in between in that they don't have players thought of as ideal for the situation, but neither do they have players so bad in one matchup that they would be shooting themselves in the foot otherwise.

Third base is one position where they should platoon, simply because there aren't any reasonable full-time options available in free agency and their internal options are less than stellar. The Phillies re-signed Kevin Frandsen, who had a breakout year in 2012 in just over 200 plate appearances. However, Frandsen had a .980 OPS against left-handed pitchers compared to just .762 against right-handers. Eric Chavez, a left-handed hitter who faced mostly right-handers with the Yankees in 2012, would be a cheap, non-risky platoon partner with Frandsen. Chavez posted a .908 OPS against right-handers and a shockingly low .382 mark against lefties.

With Domonic Brown in one corner, the Phillies should use a platoon in the other, sandwiching a newcomer in center. Nate Schierholtz and John Mayberry would be an easy in-house pairing. Last year, Schierholtz tagged RHP for an .826 OPS and lefties just .444 while Mayberry was at .626 and .811 respectively. Schierholz was non-tendered, but could still be brought back.

Here's a controversial one for you: The Phillies should platoon Howard at first base. It would never happen, as it would be admitting in the second year of Howard's five-year deal that they made a grievous error, but Howard has been subpar against lefties for a few years now, and he is only trending downward. Since 2010, his OPS against southpaws has gone .826, .634, .604. If the Phillies don't utilize Mayberry in an outfield platoon, they could pair him up with Howard at first base. Otherwise, they could find someone in free agency or give breakout prospect Darin Ruf a shot. Ruf posted a 1.593 OPS against lefties in the minors and 1.326 in 22 chances at the major league level in September.

3. Rely on young bullpen arms

This strategy backfired early in the season for the Phillies, but in fairness, so, too, did their reliance on veteran arms such as Jose Contreras and Chad Qualls. Antonio Bastardo did not follow up a breakout 2011 with similar results, while Michael Schwimer disappointed, and Mike Stutes and David Herndon succumbed to season-ending injuries. The only consistently bright light was closer Jonathan Papelbon, who finished with 38 saves and a 2.44 ERA in his first season after signing a four-year, $50 million contract with the Phillies last offseason.

There was reason to believe that several of the young arms were simply victims of bad timing and bad luck. Bastardo might have had a 4.33 ERA, but his strikeout rate improved and his walk rate didn't change. Pitchers have a lot of control over strikeouts and walks, whereas they tend not to have much control over the conversion of batted balls into outs. His SIERA -- Skill Interactive ERA, which is a "retrodictor," telling you what a pitcher's ERA should have been based on factors in his control -- was 2.47, almost two full runs per nine innings lower than his ERA. So there is plenty of reason to think Bastardo will rebound in 2013.

Jeremy Horst, Phillippe Aumont, and Jake Diekman are three more who finished with a SIERA below 4.00, creating reason for optimism going forward. The Phillies were reported to have traded for Astros reliever Wilton Lopez, but it reached a snag because of his elbow. If the trade does fall through, the Phillies shouldn't scramble to find someone else such as Mike Adams; they should be content to roll into the next season relying on a group of young arms that have as much talent and potential as anyone else out there.

2. Get Angel Pagan

Three of the six leaders in WAR (per Baseball Reference) among center fielders since 2009 are free agents this offseason: Michael Bourn (1st, 19.0 WAR), Pagan (t-5th, 13.9 WAR), and Shane Victorino (t-5th, 13.9 WAR). Why, then, is Pagan preferable to Bourn and Victorino? As you may have heard, Bourn is expected to take home quite a hefty contract on the heels of an extremely productive 2012 season with the Atlanta Braves. As for Victorino, he should be utilized as a platoon player as I noted on Twitter recently:

Victorino OPS as a LHB... 2010: .681, 2011: .787, 2012: .629. As a RHB... 2010: .921, 2011: 1.032, 2012: .906.

— Bill Baer (@CrashburnAlley) November 29, 2012

 

Pagan is viewed as the Plan A for smaller market teams, and the fallback option for teams that miss out on the likes of B.J. Upton, Hamilton, and Bourn. Pagan should get a three- or four-year deal in the $50 million range, so the Phillies would save themselves a bit of money and commit less to a player who will put up similar production.

Pagan fits in well with the Phillies, too. He would make for a great leadoff hitter as his .338 OBP was nearly 30 points better than the league average, and he stole 29 bases in 36 attempts as well (81 percent). They have been using Jimmy Rollins in the leadoff spot, but his on-base percentage has left a lot to be desired in recent years. Additionally, Pagan would provide power they wouldn't get from Bourn -- 35 percent of Pagan's hits went for extra bases in 2012, compared to Bourn's 26 percent.

1. Give Chase Utley and Howard scheduled days off

In each of the past two years, the Phillies expressed the desire to give their franchise cornerstones more scheduled days off given their advancing age and injury histories, but it never happened. Last year in particular, the Phillies called Utley's presumptive schedule "two on, one off" but it ended up being more like "two on, two more on, two more on, two more on ..." You get the picture. Utley made his his season debut on June 27. Starting on July 6, he would play in 35 consecutive games. He returned on August 20, then played in another 41 consecutive games. Utley is the breed of ballplayer who gives 110 percent every second he's on the baseball field, so he is not someone who can be trusted to pace himself; the Phillies need to intervene on his behalf and tell him to take a breather.

It was painful to watch Howard run the bases when he returned from an Achilles injury in July. Once-routine doubles required too much effort and he went first-to-third less often than he did when he was healthy (which wasn't much). Despite looking less-than-100 percent and hitting like it, too, Howard was in the lineup most days, starting in 66 of the 77 games in which he appeared. Howard didn't improve with time, either, as he posted a .601 OPS in 104 plate appearances in September and early October.

Depending on what the Phillies do at third base, Freddy Galvis will likely be on the bench most days, so he would be a suitable stand-in for Utley once a week. He doesn't have a major league-ready bat and might never, but his defense is already among the best at the position. The Phillies wouldn't lose too much relying on Galvis for 25 starts at second base during the season. And, as mentioned, Howard hasn't handled left-handed pitching well over the years, so sitting him against a tough lefty starter (such as Gio Gonzalez) in favor of Mayberry or Ruf has the two-sided benefit of giving Howard rest and getting a more productive player in the lineup.

Bill Baer runs the Phillies blog Crashburn Alley. You can follow him on Twitter @CrashburnAlley.

You have to love August baseball. This is when the grind of the long season settles in, when depth becomes even more important, when pitchers have to pitch through fatigue and soreness and maybe a little pain. It's when we find out if the pretenders are contenders and whether the favorites really do have the firepower.

August is time for scoreboard-watching. August is time for your ace to go on a five-win hot streak. August is time for the MVP candidates to shine. August is time for big wins, like the one the Giants had on Sunday at home, when they scored five runs in the bottom of the eighth to defeat the Colorado Rockies. Trade-deadline acquisition Hunter Pence had the decisive blow, a three-run home run, his first since joining the Giants. Pence is hitting just .137 with the Giants, but his homer off Rafael Betancourt capped a rally started when Brandon Crawford's leadoff pop fly fell for a single.

Beginning with the Giants, here are 10 important things you need to know as August rolls on.

1. The Giants have an offense.

Since the All-Star break, the Giants are second in the National League in runs scored to the Nationals, hitting .270 with a .339 on-base percentage, also second in the league. Buster Posey, of course, has been on fire, hitting .443 with nine home runs and 32 RBIs since the break. Only Boston's Adrian Gonzalez has more post-break RBIs (35). Melky Cabrera hasn't slowed down either; his .918 second-half OPS matches his .910 of the first half. If Pence can get going to provide another power threat, the Giants' offense looks even better.

2. Remember Jayson Werth.

Ryan Zimmerman, Adam LaRoche and Mike Morse have combined for 23 home runs since the break to power the Nationals, who had their eight-game winning streak snapped Sunday, but Werth provides something the offense has needed all season: A leadoff hitter. Since his return from a broken wrist, Werth has hit .400 with a .500 OBP. On the season, Nationals leadoff hitters rank just 13th in the National League in OBP. "I am totally surprised how my wrist is doing, how I’ve recovered," Werth told the Washington Post a couple days ago. "When I look down at my wrist and I see that scar, it almost reminds me. Like, 'Oh, yeah.' I almost forget about it until I see the hatchet wound." Werth won't ever live up to the $126 million contract, but he's a a huge key as the Nats push for a division title.

3. Who will step up for the Angels behind Jered Weaver?

Can we stop declaring that the Angels are guaranteed to secure one of the AL wild cards? They're 3-8 over the past 11 games after Jason Vargas outdueled Weaver on Sunday and have slipped 8 games behind the Rangers in the West, and to fifth in the wild-card race behind the Rays, Orioles, A's and Tigers. Dan Haren has allowed at least one home run in nine consecutive starts, Ervin Santana continues to pitch like a ticking time bomb and has allowed the most home runs in the majors, Zack Greinke has been terrible in two of his three starts with the Angels, including the fifth five-plus walk game of his career, and even C.J. Wilson has allowed 27 runs in 29.2 innings over his past five starts. With the starters getting knocked early, the overtaxed Angels bullpen has also been an issue. For all the Mike Trout love, the Angels have a good chance of becoming the season's most disappointing -- yes, even more disappointing than the Red Sox.

4. The Rays are scorching hot on the mound.

If pitchers feed off each other, the Rays are like a pack of hungry wolves right now. Tampa Bay owns a 2.33 ERA since the All-Star break and has held opponents to a .200 average in going 17-11. The Rays swept the Twins by scoring four runs in the top of the 10th and have won eight of 11 to surge into the wild-card lead with the Orioles. Next up on this road: Trips to Seattle and Anaheim. That four-game series against the Angels looms large and David Price and James Shields will start the first two games.

5. Jim Leyland is right ... sort of.

The Tigers manager started a minor firestorm when he referred to Mike Trout as "Wonderboy" in suggesting his own Miguel Cabrera is deserving of the AL MVP Award so far. Leyland's comments really weren't derogatory, as he was simply referring to the potential of voters getting caught up in Trout's storyline. Hey, he's right in that regard; voters do love a good storyline. It's why Ichiro Suzuki won in 2001 over Jason Giambi and teammate Bret Boone. Or why Miguel Tejada won over Alex Rodriguez in 2002. Interestingly, the last "Wonderboy" to challenge for an MVP trophy was A-Rod in 1996, and he finished second to Juan Gonzalez in one of the worst MVP votes of all time.

That's because what MVP voters really like is a player who makes the playoffs. It's why Ryan Braun beat out Matt Kemp in 2011 or why Joey Votto collected 31 of 32 first-place over Albert Pujols in 2010 despite basically identical numbers. Of the 34 MVP trophies handed out during the wild-card era, only six have gone to players whose teams didn't reach the playoffs: Pujols (2008), Ryan Howard (2006), Barry Bonds (2004 and 2001), A-Rod (2003) and Larry Walker (1997). So maybe Trout is the MVP favorite right now, but that all changes if the Angels don't reach the playoffs (the same, of course, can be said for Cabrera).

6. The Cardinals have the same record through 115 games as 2011.

Just like a season ago, the Cardinals are 62-53. However, in 2011 they were just 3 games behind the Brewers and 4 behind wild-card leader Atlanta. While they're 7 behind the Reds in the National League Central, they trail the Braves and Pirates by just 2.5. Like a year ago, the bullpen is struggling -- on Sunday, St. Louis blew a three-run lead in the eighth to the Phillies and lost in 11 innings. Of course, we know the bullpen buttoned down last year.

7. The best trade deadline pickup may have been ... Paul Maholm?

Maybe the Braves got the best Cubs pitcher being shopped around. Maholm's record since June 29: Eight starts, eight runs allowed. He's pitched in obscurity for years in Pittsburgh, often with some terrible defensive teams behind him. He doesn't light up the radar gun but his strikeout rate has ticked up a notch this year, perhaps because he's throwing his slider with greater frequency. Oh, another note: Mike Minor, much-maligned by Braves fans in the first half, has a 1.99 ERA over his past five starts.

8. Manny Machado is here to stay.

Can a rookie lead the Orioles to the first playoff berth since 1997? In four games since his surprise call-up from Double-A, all the 20-year-old rookie has done is hit three home runs, a double and a triple, scored five runs and knocked in seven. Maybe we have a second Wonderboy.

9. The Yankees are 26-22 since June 18. A-Rod is on the DL. CC Sabathia is again on the DL ...

Since reeling off that 10-game winning streak in mid-June, the Yankees have played just above .500 baseball. They're actually 14-14 over the past 28 games. Phil Hughes, having looked better, has returned to being Phil Hughes his past two starts. Ivan Nova lives and dies on whether his curveball and slider have enough bite on any given start. Sabathia has a tender elbow. Andy Pettitte had a setback. And then there's the offense. Curtis Granderson is turning into an extreme all-or-nothing hitter. He has seven homers since the break, but is hitting .218 with a 39/9 SO/BB ratio. Ichiro Suzuki has a sub-.300 OBP since joining the Yankees. And ... the Yankees are still up 5 games in the East.

10. We don't know anything.

Nine teams in the AL are within 5.5 games of a playoff spot. Seven teams are within 5 games of a playoff spot in the NL. That means more than half the teams have legitimate playoff hopes. There is no clear-cut No. 1 team in baseball. We have parity, we have excitement, we have fans filling ballparks (well, at least some of them) and we have a crazy, unpredictable finish ahead of us. Why is that important? Because it gives all of us reason to do plenty of scoreboard-watching.

As if hoisted off the weary chest of the Philadelphia collective by a crane forged from an amount of money unfathomable to most of us, the Cole Hamels Situation has been resolved. Bill Baer has more thoughts on the Hamels' shiny new six-year, $144 million contract here, but for many months the thought of Philadelphia losing its greatest homegrown pitcher to free agency weighed heavy on the minds and hearts of Phillies fans, threatening to unravel the last thread of euphoria spun by these "golden era" teams of the past five seasons.

Instead, Hamels received the latest massive, multi-year agreement doled out by Phillies management to secure some of the game's top players over the past few seasons. It's a collection of talent that has reached the playoffs and set a club record for wins in a season, but has not replicated the 2008 title chase, for one reason or another.

To say things in 2012 haven't gone the way the Phillies, their fans and management had envisioned this past March would be a bit of an understatement, but retaining Hamels' services is an analgesic all parties will surely be happy to have. While the Hamels saga and the "will-he-won't-he" wondering about his future destination became the dominant storyline of the Phillies' season, putting that issue to rest doesn't mean general manager Ruben Amaro Jr.'s heavy lifting is over.

In fact, the toughest work may be yet to come.

Consider what faces the Phillies this coming winter: Even though Hamels is secure, the Phils likely stand to lose their starting center fielder (Shane Victorino) and third baseman (Placido Polanco) to free agency (or trade, at least in Victorino's case), and could suffer a hit to their rotational depth if Joe Blanton ends up departing. Retaining Hamels is important because of his value as a transitional player -- he's likely to be a top-tier starter well into this deal -- to lead the team as the remnants of the '08 squad continue to age. How, then, can Amaro restructure the Phillies and reshape their identity into one built not around Ryan Howard, Chase Utley or even Roy Halladay, but Cole Hamels?

Avoiding Free Agents Who Receive Qualifying Offers

The Phillies are far from stacked with internal candidates to step in and fill shoes of any potentially departing major leaguer, due in large part to the many trades executed to bring in players like Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Hunter Pence. Trading away major leaguers for prospects could beef up what is currently a gaunt system, but keeping excess spending under wraps this offseason and keeping the incoming mid-to-early first-round pick -- or second-rounder, should the first be protected (the top 10 picks are protected) -- could go a long way toward improving the outlook of the distant future.

Teams lose their first-round pick if they sign a free agent who has received a qualifying offer from his previous team. That offer is the average of the top 125 players' salaries, expected to be in the $12-$13 million range. The Phils haven't drafted higher than 24th overall since 2007 and didn't have a first-round pick in three of the past nine years.

Maintaining Fan Interest

No fan base enjoys a transition or rebuilding, necessary as those phases may be. Finding ways to keep the fans interested and perpetuating the flow of revenue will be difficult; the Phillies have already seen their fair share of empty seats at home games this season, even though their sellout streak officially passed 250 consecutive games. I doubt the Phillies would commit additional money contingent solely on continued crowds of 44,000-plus even in lean years, but acquiring exciting and/or productive players who can hold down the fort for the time being would help bridge the gap between this moment and when it becomes prudent for the Phillies to make a free agent splash again.

Ripple Trades

This is the biggest point of all. It almost would have been easier for Amaro to trade Hamels or make continued efforts to re-sign him only to have the lefty walk in the winter. In that scenario, the Phillies could use the money saved on Hamels to keep trying to build around its current aging core. Instead, Amaro has tagged Hamels as the player to transition this franchise from a lean 2012 (and perhaps 2013) to a more prosperous latter half of the decade. In doing so, he's forcing his own hand into the near necessity of making additional trades, whether before the July 31 deadline or in the offseason.

The Phillies have long said they have no plans to operate above the luxury tax threshold, and I've seen no reason to doubt them. In 2014, the threshold will rise from its current $178 million ceiling to $189 million, which will help. But as currently constructed, the Phillies will be paying a combined $74 million to Howard, Cliff Lee, Jonathan Papelbon and Jimmy Rollins in 2014, plus Hamels' newly assumed salary and a potential $20 million option on Halladay. One or more of those players may not see the entirety of their deals played out in Philly.

With the Phillies looking at severely long odds of reaching the postseason, the departures of these players may be expedited to alleviate the pressure on the payroll, and that could mean a trade deadline that's far from quiet for the Phillies, even with Hamels going nowhere.

Extending Hamels was the right move, even if it means the second-highest pitching contract in history. Hamels has proven to be worthy of "cornerstone" billing. A Cy Young contender. A World Series MVP. A 28-year-old, homegrown ace whose departure would have left an indelible scar on the franchise. Now Hamels has a chance to prove himself yet again, and Amaro has the formidable task of retooling and reconstructing a championship-caliber team around the left arm of his latest multi-million-dollar man. The future of the franchise is now theirs to mold.

Paul Boye writes regularly for Crashburn Alley.

When the season began, everyone knew Chase Utley was going to miss a significant amount of time. We all knew Ryan Howard was going to be out until around the All-Star break. We all knew the core of the Phillies' lineup was getting older -- Placido Polanco was 36 and Jimmy Rollins 33 and Shane Victorino 31.

Still ... we believed. Most of us believed. ESPN.com polled 50 of its baseball contributors before the season: 27 of them had the Phillies winning the NL East; 17 had them winning one of the wild cards. Only six had them missing the playoffs. We saw Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels and a team that had won five consecutive division titles and was coming off a 102-win season. We didn't see a team that was going to crater.

Just a few days ago, there was still reason to believe. The Phillies were 36-40, but Utley was returning to the lineup, Howard was beginning a rehab assignment in the minors and they were just 4.5 games behind the second wild-card team. Climb back to .500 at the All-Star break and maybe they'd be in position for a second-half run.

Instead, a disastrous five games ensued. The Pirates beat them on Wednesday and Thursday and then the Marlins swept the Phillies over the weekend, culminating with a 5-2 win on Sunday.

The Phillies have played half their schedule. They're 36-45 and eight games out of the wild card -- with six teams between them and the No. 2 wild-card team.

Are the Phillies done? I asked Bill Baer of Crashburn Alley to assess the general state of the Phillies' fandom and he replied, "I would venture to say most fans are fed up with this team and want to see some return on some of the to-be free agents like Shane Victorino and, among a lesser percentage, Cole Hamels."

Here's the best way to assess the Phillies' playoff hopes. Let's assume it will take 88 wins to make the playoffs. Even that win total may be a little optimistic as it wouldn't have made the postseason as the second wild card in either of the past two seasons.

To win 88 games, the Phillies will have to go 52-29 the rest of the way -- that's a 104-win pace, or .642 winning percentage. Or better than the club played last season.

Here's another way to look at that. The Phillies have scored 347 runs and allowed 362 (they've underperformed their expected record by three wins). What kind of runs totals will they need to produce to win 52 games? Using the Pythagorean formula to estimate wins and losses, the Phillies would need to score 387 runs and allow 297 to produce an estimated .641 winning percentage.

Is there room to add 40 runs and subtract 65?

Well, let's run through some scenarios:

Offense
The most surprising thing about the Phillies' first half: The offense wasn't the biggest culprit. They're fifth in the NL runs scored, on pace for 694. The Phillies scored 713 runs last season (which ranked seventh in the league). Still, there are areas for possible improvement.

1. Second base: +18 runs. This is the obvious position where the Phillies could get a huge upgrade. With rookie second baseman Freddy Galvis struggling at the plate until he was injured, Phillies second basemen created about 30 runs in the first half. Say Utley hits like he did in 2010, when he posted a .275/.387/.445 line. That's about an 18-run improvement over 300 plate appearances.

2. First base: +11 runs. The best thing to say about Ty Wigginton is that at least he wasn't awful. Overall, Phillies first basemen (10 games from Hector Luna?) hit .257/.318/.410 and created about 39 runs. Howard created about 97 runs a year ago. Cut that in half and you're talking about 50 runs over half a season. Probably not quite the improvement Phillies fans would expect, but Howard wasn't that great last year, hitting .253/.345/.488.

3. Center field: +14. Victorino has produced about 43 runs, but his triple slash line is way down from last season -- .355 to .322 in OBP and .491 to .386 in slugging. Let's say he hits in the second half like he did last season -- and manages to play every day like he did in the first half. He created 96 runs last year in 582 PAs; prorate that over 350 PAs and you get 57 runs created -- a 14-run improvement.

That's 43 runs. We needed 40 more. But remember, the Phillies are likely to see a drop in the second half from Carlos Ruiz and maybe from Juan Pierre. And keep in mind that while Utley and Howard were disabled, Victorino played every game, Hunter Pence missed one game, Rollins missed three and Ruiz missed just eight. Forty runs would be a big gain.

Defense
The Phillies had one of the great pitching staffs in NL history a year ago, allowing 529 runs. They allowed 362 in the first half; amazingly, only the Rockies and Astros have allowed more in the NL. To me, that indicates the Phillies will need a huge second-half improvement in the pitching and defense department. I have them needing to decrease their first-half total by 65 runs. Where would the improvement come from?

1. Cliff Lee: -17 runs. He allowed 41 runs in 13 starts. Throw in three of Kyle Kendrick's average starts (3.5 runs per start) for the time Lee missed and we're talking about 51 runs. Give Lee 16 second-half starts at the rate he allowed runs a season ago (2.1 per start) and we're talking about a 17-run improvement.

2. Roy Halladay: -15 runs. He just threw his first bullpen session as he mends from a sore shoulder. Add Halladay's 11 starts (32 runs) and five of Kendrick's starts and we get 50 runs from this rotation spot. Let's say Halladay makes a fairly quick return after the break and makes 15 second-half starts and allows 2.3 runs per start. That's about a 15-run improvement.

3. Joe Blanton: -8 runs. He's allowed 61 runs in 16 starts. He has to do better. Cut him by half a run a start.

4. Bullpen: -25 runs. Phillies relievers are 9-13 with a 4.57 ERA, 13th in the NL. They've allowed 114 runs in 205 innings, or 5.0 runs per nine innings. Whether it's improvement from the current motley crew on the roster or the Phillies trade for some depth, the 'pen will have to do better. Cut them by 25 runs over 190 second-half innings (we're assuming a few more innings from the rotation) and we get 89 runs, or 4.2 per nine innings. This gets us to our 65 runs.

OK, that's one way for the Phillies to win 52 games in the second half. On paper, it seems reasonable.

That's on paper. Nothing outrageous needed. But that also assumes everything goes the Phillies' way, the injuries subside and some of the veterans pick it up. There's also no guarantee that 88 wins will be enough. The Phillies may need to win 54 or 55 games in the second half.

I wouldn't trade Hamels just yet. But I don't think I'd be betting on a sixth consecutive playoff appearance.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

OK, let's be brutally honest here about Jon Lester's complete game 6-1 victory on Monday night: It came against the Seattle Mariners. A lot of pitchers look pretty good against Seattle.

Nonetheless, it was Boston's first nine-inning complete game of the season and first since Josh Beckett threw a shutout last June. In fact, Beckett's shutout was Boston's only nine-inning complete game in 2011.

So it was a good sign that Lester went the distance (he did pitch eight innings in a 3-1 loss to Toronto back in his second start). For a guy who has had difficulty keeping his pitch counts down, he threw 119 pitches. He didn't walk anybody, although he threw first-pitch strikes to just 15 of 34 hitters. He struck out six, which at least was an improvement over his past two starts when he put away just five batters in 11 innings. I don't think we suddenly say the Jon Lester of 2008 through August 2011 is back, but it's a small step forward.

Of course, the Red Sox need a big step forward. Remember the Lester mentioned as a leading Cy Young candidate heading into last season? They need that guy back, if he ever existed in the first place. Lester's career high in innings came back in 2008, his first full season in the majors, when he pitched 210.1 innings. Last season, that total dipped to 191.2. Staff aces need to go deep into games. Imagine what an extra 30 or 40 innings would do in saving innings for the bullpen.

The Red Sox, of course, began the day in last place in the American League East. The Angels and Phillies also began the day in last place in their divisions. All three teams are under .500 and looking for small positives. Lester throws well against the Mariners? Hey, that's a positive. Joe Blanton beats the Astros? That's a positive. Small steps.

It has me wondering: Which of these teams -- all World Series contenders back in March -- is the best bet to take the big steps and reach the postseason? Let's backtrack a bit first.

Here were the odds to win the World Series for the three teams at the start of the season, from a certain gambling website:

Red Sox: 10-1
Angels: 7-1
Phillies: 6-1

And the current odds:

Red Sox: 14-1
Angels: 12-1
Phillies: 10-1

I'm actually surprised those odds haven't fallen a bit more, but it's a reminder that we're not even at the quarter pole yet.

Here were the preseason odds to make the playoffs that ran on ESPN Insider, via Dan Szymborski's ZiPS system:

Red Sox: 61.1 percent
Angels: 68.1 percent
Phillies: 62.2 percent

ESPN's panel of baseball personnel was even more optimistic about the Angels and Phillies. Here were the playoff percentages from the 50-person voting panel back on Opening Day:

Red Sox: 32 percent
Angels: 92 percent
Phillies: 86 percent

Not only were the Angels an overwhelming pick to the make the playoffs, 18 of the 50 voters picked them to win the World Series. Interesting that while Dan's numbers-based projected rated the three teams' playoff odds pretty similarly, the Red Sox were viewed in much less regard by the human prognosticators.

And now, as each team sits under .500? The current playoff odds via Coolstandings.com that run on ESPN.com:

Red Sox: 29.8 percent
Angels: 17.8 percent
Phillies: 31.5 percent

Clay Davenport also calculates projected playoffs odds. His system still likes the Red Sox in particular (percentages entering Monday's games):

Red Sox: 65.9 percent
Angels: 20.8 percent
Phillies: 51.6 percent

Clay projects Boston winning 88 games. Maybe his system views Lester as a Cy Young contender.

Now, this is where I pick which of these three teams will make the playoffs. Of course, all three could make it; not a big surprise if that happens. But if I had to pick one team, it's the Phillies. "Baseball Today" podcast host/KaraBlog author/SweetSpot contributor Eric Karabell says I can't do this; he says I've been bagging on the Phillies too much. He says I have to pick the Angels. I think Karabell is misremembering a few things. After all, I did have the Phillies to win the division and was one of just four of those ESPN folks to have the Angels missing the playoffs.

Look, the Red Sox can pound the old leather. My favorite stat: They have 100 doubles, 24 more than the Royals and at least 40 more than half the teams in baseball. The Angels have the advantage of playing the Mariners and A's 36 times this year, still have that great-on-paper rotation, and you know Albert Pujols will go on a tear at some point (although maybe we don't know that).

But I still see too many question marks on those teams. I need to see Lester and Beckett pitch several good games in a row. I need Vernon Wells and Erick Aybar and a few others hitting for the Angels. So here are five quick reasons I'm voting for the Phillies.

1. National League parity.

The Phillies, Brewers and Diamondbacks each won at least 94 games last season, but there's a high degree of possibility that no team will win that many in 2012. Heck, no team may win 90. This suggests the two wild cards may only have to win 85 or 86 games or so. Considering the mediocrity we've seen in the NL Central and NL West divisions outside the Cardinals and Dodgers, it seems like a good bet that two wild cards will come out of the NL East.

2. The Phillies' offense is bad ... but so is much pretty much every other team's offense in the NL.

The Phillies rank ninth in the NL in runs scored. They ranked seventh a year ago. Yes, Carlos Ruiz and Juan Pierre are leading the attack right now. The point isn't so much that this is suddenly going to turn into an offensive juggernaut once Ryan Howard and Chase Utley return and once Jimmy Rollins, Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino start hitting better, but merely to suggest that the Phillies' offense isn't a huge albatross when you compare it across the league.

3. They have Jonathan Papelbon.

OK, Charlie Manuel hasn't exactly done a good job of using him in high-leverage situations, but in a season where closers are falling prey to injuries and blown saves everywhere you look, Papelbon will still prove a small advantage over 162 games.

4. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels.

I still wouldn't trade them for another trio in baseball.

5. Blanton and Vance Worley.

Blanton lowered his ERA to 2.96 with seven strong innings against Houston on Monday. He has a 35/7 strikeout/walk ratio and has allowed just two home runs in 48.2 innings. Worley is once again proving skeptics wrong, with a 3.07 ERA and 45/15 strikeout/walk ratio in 44 innings. The rotation is five-deep and that depth will slowly show up over 162 games.

What do you think? If you haven't, vote in the poll at the top of the page.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

My parents still love watching baseball, even Seattle Mariners baseball. I called them Monday evening to see if they watched Philip Humber's perfect game on Saturday and my dad said he watched a few innings, went out to the mow the lawn and came back just in time to see the bottom of the ninth.

He then proceeded to complain about Chone Figgins ("He just can't hit.") and Justin Smoak ("Most good hitters don't take three or four years to figure things out."). Hey, he's right. And you can't blame him; he's been watching inept offense for two-plus years now. But then he said something that sums up a problem not unique to the Mariners:

"You know, even with their great pitching staff the Phillies can't win either."

Indeed, the Philadelphia Phillies entered Monday's game against the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 2.46 ERA. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Vance Worley had allowed just 22 runs in their 13 starts. It doesn't take a Ph.D. in Sabermetrics to realize that's fewer than two runs per start. But after losing 9-5 to Arizona (made closer with a five-run outburst in the ninth inning) the Phillies are now 7-10. That's the same record as the Mariners, and the Phillies have scored just 48 runs, an average of 2.82 runs per game.

That's right, the Philadelphia Phillies -- the five-time defending National League East champs -- have become the Seattle Mariners.

OK, OK ... I kid, Phillies fans. But the Phillies have scored 12 fewer runs than the Mariners, a team whose OPS leader is Brendan Ryan, a guy with a .190 batting average. We all know the laundry list of the Phillies' problems -- Ryan Howard and Chase Utley on the disabled list; Jimmy Rollins hitting .242 with no power (two doubles, no home runs) and just four walks; Placido Polanco hitting .185 with one extra-base hit and one RBI; John Mayberry Jr. hitting .205 with no walks and 14 strikeouts. And so on. In fact, it's fair to ask: Where would the Phillies be without Juan Pierre and Ty Wigginton?

Man, those 45-homer seasons from Ryan Howard seem like a long time ago.

What I'm wondering: How many runs do the Phillies need to score to contend for the playoffs? After all, offense is still 50 percent of the game.

Entering Monday's action, the National League was hitting a collective .242/.310/.376 -- a .686 OPS that is 24 points lower than 2011's numbers. That figure takes us back to the offensive levels of 1988 to 1992, when the NL OPS figures were .673, .678, .704, .689 and .684. So one way of looking at this: Let's assume it will take 87 wins to make the playoffs. What's the lowest run total for an NL team from that 1988-1992 period that won at least 87 games?

For you baseball historians out there, it shouldn't come as a surprise that the 1988 Dodgers scored just 628 runs, or 3.88 runs per game. That actually put the Dodgers sixth in a 12-team league. The Dodgers allowed 544 runs and finished 94-67, exceeding their projected record by three wins.

Back to the Phillies. They're on pace to score 457 runs. Obviously, that won't cut it, but of course the offense won't be that bad all season. It will pick up, that we can predict. In 2011, they allowed 529 runs, the lowest full-season total since the 1969 Orioles allowed 517. So if they match the '88 Dodgers' total of 628 runs, they're still in good shape and project as a 93-win team, assuming the same run prevention as 2011.

What will it take to score 628 runs? They'd have to score 580 runs over the final 145 games, or 4.0 runs per game. Or just about what the National League average has been so far -- 3.94 runs per game entering Monday's game.

But just like the offense is likely to improve moving forward, the pitching staff probably won't match last season's historic stinginess. With Cliff Lee heading to the DL over the weekend with a strained oblique, we see the precariousness of relying so much on a few starting pitchers. The Diamondbacks lit up Kyle Kendrick, Lee's replacement, for 11 hits and seven runs in three innings on Monday. Kendrick had a nice season in 2011, posting a 3.22 ERA over 114.2 innings, including 15 starts. Kendrick, however, lives on a fine line of success. Among 145 pitchers last season with at least 100 innings, his strikeout rate ranked 138th. So as he steps in for Lee -- who may miss a month, meaning four or five starts -- don't expect a 3.22 ERA from Kendrick.

That's just one reason to expect the staff to allow a few more runs. Let's say 30 more than a year ago. That's 559 runs. Now that '88 Dodgers total of 628 runs projects to a win total of ... 89.5.

That might still be enough to squeak into the playoffs. Four runs a game. That's all you need, Phillies fans.

But what if the Phillies average 3.8 runs per game the rest of the season instead of 4.0? That projects to 599 runs scored.

And 86 wins. One run every five games. A couple of extra bloops or bleeders per week. A few ground balls with eyes. The difference between making the playoffs and going home.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

We closed out a full week of Baseball Today podcasts with Friday’s memorable edition, as Mark Simon and I kind of made things up as we went along, but in a fun and entertaining way!

1. First we talked about poor Joba Chamberlain of the Yankees, and wondered whether he’ll ever be relevant again.

2. What about Kendrys Morales of the Angels? We think he’ll matter soon to any Angels lineup lacking a bit.

3. More about movies and their occasional sports inaccuracy in our email segment!

4. What off-the-wall storyline would we like to see this season, something that has never happened before? And no, we don’t mean the Cubs winning the World Series.

5. And finally our ridiculous question of the day (which Mark again sung -- an appearance on "American Idol" is next for Mark!) deals with older players hitting as many home runs as their age. Fun!

So have a seat, put your feet up and download and listen to Friday’s cool Baseball Today podcast, because let’s face it, I was sitting with my feet up when we recorded it. Have a great weekend and we’ll still be daily next week!

OK, let's do some quick math.

By worst-case scenario, I don't mean "Chase Utley out of for the year, Ryan Howard out for the year, Roy Halladay injures his shoulder" and so on.

But let's try a few assumptions and see how that could affect the Phillies' bottom line in terms of wins and losses.

1. Chase Utley misses half of the season.

We'll slot Freddy Galvis in his place. Projecting Utley with the same numbers as last season, this would be a net loss of about 15 runs over 300 plate appearances.

2. Ryan Howard misses half of the season.

While Howard is no longer the $20 million superstar his contract suggests, he did create 97 runs in 644 plate appearances. Some combo of John Mayberry, Ty Wigginton and Jim Thome isn't going to match that, especially if Wigginton gets too much playing time. Let's say 10 runs worse over 300 plate appearances.

3. Declines from Shane Victorino, Jimmy Rollins, Placido Polanco and Hunter Pence.

The first three are a year older. Pence played out of his mind for two months. Let's say 25 runs worse.

4. Decline from Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Vance Worley.

I'm not talking huge drop-offs here, but it's hard to imagine the Big Three doing any better. Halladay allowed 74 runs in 2010, 65 a year ago (albeit in fewer innings). In Lee's first stint with the Phillies, he allowed 35 runs in 12 starts; in 2011, he allowed 66 in 32 starts. Hamels allowed six fewer runs than 2010. Worley exceeded expectations as a rookie. Let's give eight runs to Halladay, 10 Hamels, 12 to Lee and 15 to Worley. That's 45 more runs allowed.

5. Decline from bullpen/No. 5 starter.

The Phillies' bullpen was effective in 2011 with a 3.45 ERA. Jonathan Papelbon-for-Ryan Madson should be an equal exchange but some of the other guys may not match their 2011 numbers. Same goes for spot starter Kyle Kendrick (3.22 ERA). Plus there's the loss of Roy Oswalt to consider. Let's give 15 more runs to the bullpen and 15 more from the No. 5 slot in the rotation.

So we're losing 50 runs on offense and adding 75 runs on defense.

That gives us 663 runs scored and 604 runs allowed ... that's still good for 88 wins.

Is that a conservative worst-case scenario? No, it's actually a pretty ambitious decline of 14 fewer wins. Since 1996, 17 teams have won 100 games. Their average decline the following season is minus-6.6 wins. The five biggest declines:

2001-02 Mariners: -23 wins
2005-06 Cardinals: -17 wins
1998-99 Yankees: -16 wins
1999-00 D-backs: -15 wins
2009-10 Yankees: -8 wins
1999-00 Braves: -8 wins

It's no surprise that the 2001-02 Mariners and 1998-99 Yankees suffered big declines considering they were coming off seasons of 116 and 114 wins. The 2005-06 Cardinals declined almost exclusively due to a big increase in runs allowed, 634 to 762 (Jason Marquis stayed in the rotation all season despite a 6.02 ERA). That team won the NL Central with just 83 wins and then the World Series. The 1999-00 Diamondbacks had a big drop in offense; Matt Williams and Jay Bell combined for 73 home runs and 254 RBIs in '99, 30 and 115 in 2000.

Anyway, the bottom line: This is how good Halladay, Lee and Hamels are. This Phillies can lose Utley and Howard for half the season and still rate as the favorites in the NL East.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

There's a disturbing trend in Chase Utley's batting averages that a lot of Phillies fans don't like to acknowledge. It goes like this: .332, .292, .282, .275, .259.

You can do the same thing his yearly OPS figures: .976, .915, .905, .832, .769.

Now comes word that Utley is doubtful for Opening Day because of issues with both knees. So you have an aging, declining player who missed the first 45 games of 2011 with knee tendinitis now battling two bad knees.

Utley has survived several injuries in his career to remain one of the best second basemen in baseball. He spent 31 days on the disabled list in 2007 with a broken bone in his right hand, had offseason hip surgery following the Phillies' World Series title in 2008, and spent 49 days on the DL in 2010 with torn ligaments in his thumb. He's often bounced back quicker than expected. Following his hip surgery, he was expected to be out until May, but was in the Opening Day lineup. There was belief last spring that he'd be out until the All-Star break or later, but he returned May 23.

But he's now 33, hasn't played yet this spring, and is off to see a "specialist." It sounds ominous.

The Phillies' replacement options for Utley:

1. Freddy Galvis. The team's potential shortstop of the future, Galvis is a 22-year-old who spent most of 2011 in Double-A. While he carries a good-glove reputation, his bat is questionable. ZiPS projects his batting line at .261/.299/.359. Even with his decline in production, Utley created about 64 runs in 454 plate appearances in 2011. Galvis' line translates to about 41 runs created over 454 appearances.

2. Michael Martinez. The club's utility player a season ago, Martinez is a speedster who can play all positions on the field and not hit at any of them, as he showed with a .198/.258/.282 line in 234 PAs in 2011.

3. Ty Wigginton. Brought in to play first base until Ryan Howard returns from his injury, Wigginton has "played" second base in the past. Quote marks needed to emphasize the fact that it would be like putting a statue in the middle infield. Not a great option, especially since he's not much with the bat, either, but the Phillies could slide John Mayberry Jr. to first base (with an occasional appearance from Jim Thome) and go with some form of Juan Pierre/Domonic Brown/Laynce Nix in left field.

Galvis might be the best option, especially since Wigginton might be needed to fill in some at third base for Placido Polanco (he just suffered a sprained finger), who battled his own hip problems a season ago and is now 36.

Look, none of this is surprising. The Phillies are an old team with several players with recent injury issues. Players don't tend to get healthier as they move into their mid-30s.

We can't speculate yet how long Utley will be out. The Phillies won 102 games last season even though he played just 103 games. They scored 713 runs last season, and while that was a big drop from their offensive heyday a few years ago, it was still good for seventh in the NL. But without Howard for at least a couple of months and possibly without Utley for an extended period of time, and with a lineup that might end up seeing a lot of Pierre and Wigginton, this could end up being one of the worst offenses in the league.

Which means Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels are going to have to win a lot of 3-2 games.

Here are some links to check out in Internet land. We'll begin with reaction to the big signing from Tuesday.

• ESPN Insider Buster Olney has an excellent breakdown of all the ramifications of the Fielder signing — from Detroit's future payroll obligations to what this could mean for Joey Votto. Over the past three seasons, Votto's hit .318/.418/.565 compared to Fielder's .287/.409/.547. Fielder has more power, but Votto makes up for it by hitting .300. Votto, of course, is superior with the glove and on the bases. Over those three seasons, Baseball Info Solutions rates Votto as plus-6 runs saved on defense compared to Fielder's minus-15. On the bases, Votto is minus-4 runs but Fielder is minus-17. That's about a 10-run advantage per season with the glove and feet that Votto provides — or one extra win. There is another difference, however: Votto will be two years older when he hits free agency, so I don't think that necessarily means Votto will get the same kind of contract as Fielder.
• Miguel Cabrera has apparently said he's moving to third base. Cabrera last played third in 2008, when he started 14 games there for the Tigers at the start of the season, fielded .900, and was quickly moved to first. With the Marlins in 2007 he fielded .941 and BIS rated him as 16 runs worse than an average third baseman. I'm skeptical about Cabrera playing regularly there, but I suppose it's possible Cabrera could play third when Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer pitch — two strikeout/flyball pitchers — and Brandon Inge or Don Kelly play third when Rick Porcello or Doug Fister start.
• Curt Schilling offers his thoughts on the signing.
• Brewers closer John Axford talks about Prince and Milwaukee's offseason.
• Walkoff Woodward — coming soon as an official SweetSpot Tigers blog — offers up a bunch of thoughts on Prince coming to Detroit.
• What this means for the Nationals.
• Jayson Stark lists his best 3-4 combos in the majors.
• Crashburn Alley's Bill Baer breaks down the contracts of Fielder and Ryan Howard.

And some stuff from the non-Prince area ...

• At Grantland, Bill James lists the 100 best pitching duels of 2011.
• ESPN Insider Kevin Goldstein lists some prospects who helped their evaluation with strong showings in the Arizona Fall League or winter ball.
• Chip Buck of Fire Brand of the AL explains some of the luxury tax implications of the Marco Scutaro trade. Plus thoughts on Cody Ross!
• Eric O'Flaherty was the secret weapon in Atlanta's bullpen 2011, lost in the attention given to Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters. Can he repeat his strong season?
• Chris Quick responds to something I wrote and examines the depth of the Giants' rotation. Chris also pays homage to the departed Ross with three video highlights of his Giants career.
• Joe Girardi says the Yankees will not use a six-man rotation. In other words, if you want Phil Hughes or A.J. Burnett, make a pitch!
• Speaking of ... should the Mets trade Jason Bay for Burnett?
• Dodger Thoughts author Jon Weisman has a day job -- he works at Variety, the entertainment industry magazine. Here's his list of his favorite movies of 2011, complete with grading scale (kind of like WAR for movies!).

This is back-of-the-napkin stuff ... but fun back-of-the-napkin stuff. As we wait to see if Prince Fielder does land in Washington, let's check out the state of the NL East. We'll go position by position and rank the players. Then we'll come up with a final tally (five points for first, four for second, etc.)

Catcher
1. Brian McCann, Braves
2. Wilson Ramos, Nationals
3. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
4. Josh Thole, Mets
5. John Buck, Marlins

Phillies fans will storm the bastille over this one and say I'm underestimating Ruiz's ability to call a game, but I think Wilson Ramos has a chance to be something special. He hit .267/.334/.445 as a rookie, spending most of the season at just 23 years old. The thing that bodes well is that his walk rate improved from 4 percent in Triple-A in 2010 to 8.7 percent last season. And to think they got him from the Twins for Matt Capps. Ruiz is an underrated player -- he's posted a .376 OBP the past three seasons -- but Ramos' power and potential for improvement put him at No. 2 behind McCann.

First base
1. Freddie Freeman, Braves
2. Ryan Howard/Jim Thome, Phillies
3. Ike Davis, Mets
4. Gaby Sanchez, Marlins
5. Adam LaRoche, Nationals

Yes, there's huge value for the Nationals in signing Prince Fielder. With Davis and LaRoche coming off serious injuries and Howard out for at least a couple months, I have to give the top nod to Freeman. Sure, maybe he'll succumb to the dreaded sophomore jinx, but baseball history also tells us that players often make a huge leap from age 21 to age 22. If Davis hits like he did in the 36 games he played last year (.302/.383/.543) then he's an All-Star candidate, but while he says he's "good to go" for spring training, we'll have to wait to see how his ankle responds. As for Sanchez, he's a lukewarm cup of coffee on a 32-degree day.

Second base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Danny Espinosa, Nationals
3. Dan Uggla, Braves
4. Daniel Murphy, Mets
5. Omar Infante, Marlins

I put Utley first with some hesitation: His OPS totals since 2007 read .976, .915, .905, .832 and .769. Still, that .769 figure is better than Uggla or Espinosa produced in 2011, and Utley still carries a good glove. It's defense and predicted second-season improvement that pushes Espinosa over Uggla. Murphy doesn't hit many home runs or draw many walks, so most of his offensive value resides in his batting average. If he hits .320 again, he's a good player. If he hits .290, then he's still better than Infante.

Third base
1. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
4. Chipper Jones, Braves
5. Placido Polanco, Phillies

If healthy, Zimmerman is one of the best players in the league. Ramirez and Wright were once part of that discussion, but no longer. Both players had the worst years of their careers in 2011. Will Wright rebound with the fences moved in at Citi Field? Will Ramirez bounce back and handle the transition to third base? Your guess is as good as mine. Chipper is aging gracefully, playing through injuries but still putting up respectable numbers. If this is his last season, I hope he goes out in style.

Shortstop
1. Jose Reyes, Marlins
2. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
3. Ruben Tejada, Mets
4. Ian Desmond, Nationals
5. Tyler Pastornicky, Braves

Not much debate here. Tejada posted a .360 OBP in 2011 as a 21-year-old. He doesn't have any power, but I believe the Mets are in good hands at shortstop. The same can't be said about Desmond, who must improve his defense (23 errors) and approach at the plate (139/35 SO/BB ratio). Pastornicky hit .314 in the minors last year, including .365 in 27 games in Triple-A. He puts the ball in play and has some speed, but won't hit for much power or draw many walks, so he'll need to hit for a good average to hold the job.

Left field
1. Michael Morse, Nationals
2. Martin Prado, Braves
3. Logan Morrison, Marlins
4. Domonic Brown/John Mayberry, Phillies
5. Jason Bay, Mets

We have to consider Morse the real deal by now, don't we? Although he comes with a few caveats: That 126/36 SO/BB ratio is a concern; so is his .344 average on balls in play, which ranked 15th in the majors (can he repeat that figure?); and finally, he plays left field a bit like a fire hydrant. By the way, how bad is this group defensively? Morrison may have even less range than Morse, Brown looked terrible in right field with the Phillies last year and Bay isn't getting paid $16 million because he's adept at running down balls in the gap. Actually, I'm not sure what he's getting paid for.

Center field
1. Shane Victorino, Phillies
2. Michael Bourn, Braves
3. Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins
4. Andres Torres, Mets
5. Roger Bernadina, Nationals

This seems pretty straightforward other than the ongoing raging debate between Andres Torres fans and Roger Bernadina fans.

Right field
1. Mike Stanton, Marlins
2. Hunter Pence, Phillies
3. Jason Heyward, Braves
4. Jayson Werth, Nationals
5. Lucas Duda, Mets

Mike Stanton ... 2012 National League MVP? Too soon? I'm just saying don't be surprised if it happens.

No. 1 starter
1. Roy Halladay, Phillies
2. Josh Johnson, Marlins
3. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
4. Tim Hudson, Braves
5. Johan Santana, Mets

Is there a more important player in the majors in 2012 than Johnson? The Marlins fancy themselves contenders but they need a healthy Johnson headlining the rotation. After leading the NL with a 2.30 ERA in 2010, he had posted a 1.64 ERA through 10 starts in 2011 before shoulder tendinitis shelved him for the season. He's been throwing and long tossing and is expected to be 100 percent for spring training. Strasburg has the ability to be just as dominant as Halladay and Johnson, but the Nationals will likely monitor his innings in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery.

No. 2 starter
1. Cliff Lee, Phillies
2. Gio Gonzalez, Nationals
3. Mark Buehrle, Marlins
4. Tommy Hanson, Braves
5. R.A. Dickey, Mets

This is a terrific group of No. 2 starters, as even the knuckleballer Dickey posted a 3.28 ERA in 2011 (and 3.08 ERA over the past two seasons). Hanson has Cy Young ability, but his own shoulder issues from late last season raise a red flag.

No. 3 starter
1. Cole Hamels, Phillies
2. Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals
3. Anibal Sanchez, Marlins
4. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
5. Mike Pelfrey, Mets

Zimmermann is the sleeping giant in the Nationals rotation. His strikeout/walk ratio of 4.0 ranked 11th-best among starters in 2011 and another year beyond his own TJ surgery should help him develop the stamina to improve on his second-half numbers (2.66 ERA before the All-Star break, 4.47 after). I'm not a big Jurrjens fan; he's a good pitcher, but he's now battled injuries two seasons in a row and his strikeout rate took a big dip last season.

No. 4 starter
1. Brandon Beachy, Braves
2. Vance Worley, Phillies
3. John Lannan, Nationals
4. Jonathon Niese, Mets
5. Ricky Nolasco, Marlins

You could draw this list out of a hat. Beachy and Worley surprised many with their exceptional rookie seasons; I believe both are for real, as both seemed to deliver better-than-advertised fastballs. Now they just have to prove they can become seven-inning pitchers instead of five or six. Niese is an excellent breakout candidate in 2012: He throws hard enough for a lefty (90-91), gets strikeouts, doesn't walk too many, gets groundballs. In fact, his FIP (fielding independent pitching) was 3.36 compared to his actual ERA of 4.40. It wouldn't surprise me to see him win 15 games with a 3.40 ERA. It would surprise me if Nolasco does that; 2008 is starting to look further and further in the rear-view mirror.

No. 5 starter
1. Mike Minor, Braves
2. Carlos Zambrano, Marlins
3. Dillon Gee, Mets
4. Chien-Ming Wang, Nationals
5. Joe Blanton/Kyle Kendrick, Phillies

If you're talking depth, the big edge here goes to the Braves, who also have prospects Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado and Arodys Vizcaino ready to step in. Big Z is a nice gamble by the Marlins as a No. 5 starter, you could do worse.

Closer
1. Craig Kimbrel, Braves
2. Jonathan Papelbon, Phillies
3. Drew Storen, Nationals
4. Heath Bell, Marlins
5. Frank Francisco, Mets

As dominant as Kimbrel was in winning Rookie of the Year honors (14.8 K's per nine), he did blow eight saves. But Papelbon is just one season removed from his own season of eight blown saves. Factor in Kimbrel's K rate and slightly heavier workload, and I'll give him the slight nod. Bell will have to prove himself away from the friendly confines of Petco Park, so Storen rates the clear No. 3 here.

Bullpen
1. Braves -- Jonny Venters, Eric O'Flaherty, Kris Medlen, Cristhian Martinez, Anthony Varvaro
2. Marlins -- Steve Cishek, Edward Mujica, Mike Dunn, Ryan Webb, Randy Choate
3. Nationals -- Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett, Henry Rodriguez, Ryan Perry, Tom Gorzelanny
4. Phillies -- Antonio Bastardo, Michael Stutes, Dontrelle Willis, David Herndon, Jose Contreras
5. Mets -- Bobby Parnell, Jon Rauch, Pedro Beato, Tim Byrdak, Manny Acosta

The top four teams all project to have solid-to-excellent pens. Venters and Clippard are arguably the two best set-up guys in baseball. Cishek is the rare sidearmer who can get lefties out as well as righties and he allowed just one home run in 54 innings as a rookie. The Phillies don't need many innings from their pen and while Willis could be a terrific lefty killer (lefties hit .127 off him in 2011), Bastardo must rebound from his late-season fatigue.

Intangibles
1. Marlins
2. Phillies
3. Braves
4. Nationals
5. Mets

New stadium, new free agents, new manager, new uniforms -- I view all of that as a plus for the Marlins. The playoffs left a sour taste for the Phillies' veteran-heavy squad and those guys will want nothing more than to win a sixth straight division title. The Braves have plenty of incentive after their late-season collapse. The Nationals are young but have no chip on their shoulder. But if they sign Prince ...

The final tally
1. Phillies, 58 points
2. Braves, 56 points
3. Marlins, 49 points
4. Nationals, 48 points
5. Mets, 29 points

And the napkin says the Phillies are still the division favorite. What, you want to bet against Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels?