Monday, February 10, 2014
Now let's see adjusted strength of schedule
By Paul Kuharsky
NASHVILLE, Tenn. - As I wrote in the previous post, strength of schedule can be incredibly misleading.
But when trying to measure a schedule that's over six months away, it's all we've got.
I think there is a way to adjust strength of schedule to make it a little more reflective -- by taking the team in question out of it.
The Titans' 2014 opponents have an overall strength of schedule of .438. But Tennessee's 7-9 record obviously had a bearing on that. They lost to the Colts twice, for example, factoring twice into Indianapolis' .430 strength of schedule.
Take the Titans' own results out of the 2013 records of the opponents they will face, and the strength of schedule drops from .438 to .427.
The AFC South was collectively 24-40 in 2013, for a combined .375 winning percentage. The division makes up the bottom four in regular strength of schedule (Jaguars 29th, Texans 30th, Titans 31st and Colts 32nd) and in adjusted strength of schedule (Colts and Jaguars tied for 29th, Titans 31st and Texans 32nd).
NFL Adjusted Strength of Schedule
A look at adjusted strength of schedule for the NFL in 2013. If a team goes 16-0, it had a big impact on the winning percentage of the teams it played. Here we take out a team's record and look at how opponents were in the rest of their games.