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The trade deadline is more than two months away. However, with all the parity we’ve seen in the past two decades, most teams will still be buyers come July 31. Few teams outside of the Minnesota Twins, Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres are assured to be sellers. This could be an indication there could be as many buyers trading with other buyers as there will be buyers trading with sellers.

This year at the deadline there should be plenty of closers who will be traded, such as Joel Hanrahan, Brandon League and Huston Street, provided they are all healthy and still pitching well.

But if you are looking for big names, here are five who I think will be moved in significant trades between now and the deadline.

1. Zack Greinke, Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers general manager Doug Melvin shocked the baseball world back in December 2010 when he acquired Zack Greinke from the Royals in exchange for Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain, Jeremy Jeffress and Jake Odorizzi. Contract negotiations between the Brewers and Greinke’s agent, Casey Close, have been professional, but there is a significant gap in terms of length and dollars in their talks. If the Brewers aren’t in the pennant race come July, Greinke will be traded.

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There’s a fine line between trying to contend and trying to rebuild. Oakland Athletics president and general manager Billy Beane understands this dilemma all too well.

Indeed, it is counterintuitive for anyone competing at the highest level of a sport to engage in efforts that do not amount to winning. A competitor’s instinct is to do whatever is necessary to succeed. And yet, that thought process has hampered Beane in rebuilding the A’s into the juggernaut they were a decade ago.

His ability to scratch and claw with one of the game’s lowest payrolls in order to stay competitive has been admirable. Although the A’s haven’t had a winning season since 2006, they haven't been a doormat, either. And therein lies the problem. Beane has done a nice job of signing a number of undervalued free agents in recent years, and those players have helped the A's remain a middle-of-the-road club. This year, Beane signed Bartolo Colon and Jonny Gomes. Last year he brought in Josh Willingham and Hideki Matsui.

The signings didn't cost him a draft pick, and the team probably won more than it would have without the free agent. That’s great, right?

Not really. Beane’s ability to pick up veteran players to help them stay competitive each year is great, but it cost them dearly in terms of draft positioning. Instead of losing more games and bottoming out to pick within the top five, the team was somewhat competitive with the undervalued players and pushed the A’s down to the No. 10 slot or later every year since 2005.

And this affects every round, not just the first. So the cumulative diluting effect of selecting later is significant. However, consider their middling first-round picks since 2005:

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Both the Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies are unaccustomed to approaching the July 31 trade deadline as “sellers.” And yet, that’s perhaps their best course of action.

Despite extremely slow starts, the two teams still have enough collective talent to contend for at least wild-card berths this season. A couple of winning streaks and the Red Sox or Phillies could find themselves back in the thick of a division race. And their places in the standings might determine whether the sell or buy. Understandably, the allure of going on a late-season run can motivate a team’s front office to acquire players rather than trade them for prospects. If they’re deep in the hunt, these two proud teams will jump in.

But if they’re on the fringe, both organizations have to take a hard look at where their teams are and the direction in which they are heading. They might consider being sellers instead and use the opportunity to retool their teams for the long-term rather than considering the short-term and trying to win the World Series this year. Such an effort could come at the expense of long-term improvement over the next several years.

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Setting expectations is one thing. Meeting them is another.

For first-round picks and even players who experience some success very early in their careers, those expectations can get out of hand, especially with teams that have experienced little success themselves. The players become the organization’s life preserver to a certain extent and the expectations can grow to unrealistic proportions. For the following five players, the hope didn’t meet the hype, and in time, they’ve shown to be less than what everyone -- fair or not -- originally expected. Point is, it's time for folks to stop thinking these guys are going to get better; they are who they are.

Luke Hochevar
For the most part, the Royals have done a tremendous job with their first-round selections in recent years, including Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas. However, teams will miss on players. It’s especially pointed if you miss with the first overall pick when players like Evan Longoria, Clayton Kershaw and Tim Lincecum are on the board, which was the case during the 2006 draft.

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As I watched Josh Hamilton’s fourth home run leave Camden Yards last night, I couldn’t help but be taken back to Sept. 7, 1993, when Mark Whiten hit four home runs against my Cincinnati Reds. I was 32, a rookie general manager and interim president and had the worst pitching staff during a nightmare season.

Hamilton, on the other hand, is living the dream. He leads the American League in home runs, RBIs and OPS. And the impending free agent soon will be paid handsomely for it. On Tuesday night, he set an American League record with 18 total bases in a single game.

He is arguably one of the most talented players in baseball right now, perhaps second only to Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder Matt Kemp. I say that not only because Kemp is younger, but Hamilton’s injury and addiction history hold him back. Despite all the accolades and Herculean feats like last night’s four-home run game, the fact is Hamilton’s past has and will continue to impact any contract negotiations he has with the Texas Rangers or any other team that seeks his services.

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When Philadelphia Phillies left-hander Cole Hamels admitted to purposefully hitting Washington Nationals rookie Bryce Harper in the first inning of Sunday’s game in Washington, he allowed misguided logic to steer his actions. Labeling it as an act of “old-school” baseball, Hamels more or less admitted he did it because of Harper's reputation as a cocky player, and MLB was completely justified in suspending Hamels for five games.

“I was trying to hit him," said Hamels. "I’m not going to deny it. That’s something I grew up watching, that’s kind of what happened. So I’m just trying to continue the old-school baseball because I think some people are kind of getting away from it.”

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There aren’t many teams that could withstand losing a sure-fire future Hall of Famer. But the New York Yankees can.

While much of Gotham was trying to figure out who the Yankees should target in trades, the fact is the Yankees own significant bullpen depth that might make a trade unnecessary.

When Mariano Rivera went down in a heap after tearing his ACL shagging a fly ball in Kansas City on Thursday, it already was a natural assumption that setup man David Robertson would slide into the closer’s role. Similar to how Rivera served as understudy to John Wetteland in the late-1990s, Robertson has cut his teeth under Rivera to become one of baseball’s top five closers-in-waiting.

The Yankees also boast bullpen depth with right-hander Rafael Soriano, who was the AL’s second-best closer to Rivera when the Yankees signed him two years ago. He provides a solid backup plan if Robertson struggles. Cory Wade also is ready to step up after starting the year with a 1.46 ERA, with 15 strikeouts and just two walks in 12 1/3 innings. Further, lefty Boone Logan has posted an impressive 0.96 ERA in 12 appearances.

On top of that, Phil Hughes or David Phelps remain candidates to be moved back to the bullpen when Andy Pettitte makes his first start in the next 10 days.

Despite losing his all-world closer, Yankees president Hal Steinbrenner must be quietly pleased with himself, as he pushed to sign Soriano, going against general manager Brian Cashman’s advice a couple years back. Now that signing looks critical. Because of that depth, the Yankees don’t necessarily have to make a trade for relief help. In fact, the Yankees’ bigger need is starting pitching, but they are who they are and they’ll take the temperature of the relief market anyway.

In fact, they match up extremely well with the Houston Astros. Left-hander Wandy Rodriguez and closer Brett Myers are easily their most tradable pieces would solidify the Yankees' bullpen and rotation. To obtain both Rodriguez and Myers, however, it will be expensive, probably costing a couple of top prospects.

With a 1.17 ERA and six saves in his first eight appearances, Myers has successfully made the transition back to the bullpen after four years of starting. Remember, the last time he closed games on a regular basis was with the Phillies in 2007, when he had 21 saves in 48 relief appearances. Along with Wade, Myers could serve as the Yankees’ seventh-inning bridge to Soriano and then Robertson.

Of course, a trade for Myers and Rodriguez would cost the Yankees some farm system depth, and that might not be something they are willing to do. If the Yankees decide to go outside the organization, here are six other relief pitchers who could be available at a lower cost:

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A contract never starts off “bad,” per se.

Obviously, a general manager signs a player to a contract with the intent that the player will help the team win, even if the GM knows the criticism over dollars and years is out there. The contract often infuses hope and renewed optimism; there’s excitement in the franchise and the fan base. One need only look in Anaheim, where a gargantuan 10-year, $240 million contract for Albert Pujols left Angels fans agog not only from the sheer size of the contract but by what they hoped Pujols would bring -- success. The addition even serves as a marketing tool for other players. C.J. Wilson admitted as much when he signed. His current struggles not aside, the excitement trumped any concerns over money or long-term implications. The Angels took care of business and were lauded for doing so.

But it’s over the course of time that a contract can sour like milk. Mammoth contracts and their repercussions can linger like a migraine. They are often thought of as “immovable” because possible trade partners are scarce, almost nonexistent. That is, unless the team is willing to absorb a bulk of the dollars left on the contract.

Now we’re talking.

During my tenure as GM for the Cincinnati Reds and Washington Nationals, I saw a number of so-called “immovable” contracts actually get moved, but it nearly always happened only if the player’s team ate a large portion of the remaining salary. And why not? The risk is often low and the reward could be potentially great.


The problem is that reward usually never materializes. For all the dollars that are shifted and the cachet that accompanies the names, the production never matches the sizzle. And usually, the player has struggled recently, been injury-prone or is in decline, so his production often doesn’t match his salary. Take a look at the chart above and you’ll see what I mean. For the right price, everyone is tradable. They’re just not productive. It’s simple addition by subtraction for one team, and a low-risk proposition for another.

Or in some cases, the players traded even out on salaries. Other times, the GM believes the player can regain form and is young enough to justify the contract (read: Alex Rios).

Below are five active players whose contracts are considered “immovable” by many big league general managers. I didn't include contracts for elite players like Pujols, Alex Rodriguez and Joey Votto because they are the best at their position, and as such, large contracts like theirs are what a team must pay, or else your team just won't get that player. But with the players below, you’ll see in most cases they are not in the same class but are still paid handsomely. Thus their contracts aren't justified. The production doesn't equate to the price. That's why the likelihood of their being traded is small. Some are simply dead weight. But if the financial exposure from a proposed deal is so small that it’s nearly a no-risk move, there will undoubtedly be a team out there willing to give it a shot.

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When it comes to the July 31 trade deadline, good things do not come to those who wait.

With the first month of the season in the books, general managers around the major leagues already have begun to deploy scouts to evaluate other teams and their farm systems as well as take stock of their own major-league 25-man roster and farm system.

By now, most GMs have a good grasp of their team’s main strengths and weaknesses. They have begun to target the possible sellers at the trade deadline and who might be their competition for a particular player. Contending teams have begun to crystallize whether they will be able to address certain weaknesses from within their farm systems or if they will have to go outside the organization. But no matter what, they are trying to stay ahead of the curve and that means sending out scouts to watch players now.

Going by their records, selling teams are already obvious: Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins, Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, Pittsburgh Pirates and San Diego Padres. By the end of May, more teams such as the Baltimore Orioles, New York Mets, Oakland Athletics and Seattle Mariners could join that group as their surprising starts could -- or should -- fizzle by then.

In three categories, there are a number of players who should be prime targets of most contenders: closers, starting pitchers and position players.

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Targeted closers: Brandon League, Joel Hanrahan, Huston Street, Carlos Marmol, Brett Myers and Grant Balfour
Clubs in need: Los Angeles Angels, Cincinnati Reds, Boston Red Sox, Miami Marlins

League should draw interest especially from the Angels and Reds. His fastball sits at 96-97 mph, occasionally touching 98-99 with great sink. He’s also got a good slider and a nasty split.

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It’s only fitting that Washington Nationals prospect Bryce Harper will make his major league debut basking in Hollywood’s shadow, because the 19-year-old’s story is cut from a movie script.

By now everyone knows his background as the baseball wunderkind who amazed YouTube viewers with Paul Bunyan-like hitting feats. As a Las Vegas-area high schooler, he graced the covers of national magazines and even graduated early and enrolled in junior college because he needed the upgrade in competition. He hits tape-measure home runs, throws in the mid-90s and runs like a gazelle.

And he unveils it all at Dodger Stadium on Saturday night.

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Earlier this week, Los Angeles Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti said he’s already talked to the team’s new ownership about a contract extension for outfielder Andre Ethier. At 30, Ethier is a two-time All-Star, has earned Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards and is in the prime of his career. He currently leads the majors in RBIs with 23. He also leads a list of seven players who should be signed to contract extensions now. Most of these players are in or are entering their most productive years, or perhaps are talented young players whose stardom is easily projectable. So it might behoove teams to stay ahead of the market and lock them in now.

1. Andre Ethier, RF
With the Dodgers’ $2 billion sale from Frank McCourt to the group led by Magic Johnson, Stan Kasten and Mark Walter -- the CEO of Guggenheim Partners -- officially closing in less than a week, one of the team's first orders of business should be to extend Ethier. He is the only legitimate protection for Matt Kemp the Dodgers have in the middle of their lineup. And with a farm system that will offer very little offensive help, this is an important signing. Further, the Dodgers’ new ownership might also want to have a conversation with Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw. They control his rights through 2015 but might want to start talks with him to stay ahead of a rapidly ballooning market for starting pitching.

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The basement is an unappetizing venue for the Boston Red Sox.

At 5-10, they sit at the bottom of the American League East behind a number of excellent teams. But unlike last year, when the club also started 5-10, the 2012 team is not good enough to make a dramatic turnaround as last year’s team did when it went on a torrid 45-25 run from May through July. Coupled with manager Bobby Valentine’s media miscues last week, pressure is mounting for rookie general manager Ben Cherington to make a move to help his ballclub.

Valentine is getting blamed for everything, but the fact is this team came into the season with major flaws in the outfield, starting rotation and bullpen. The Red Sox also had areas that needed upgrades at shortstop and catcher. They also have incurred major injuries. But most importantly, this team simply cannot pitch right now. And when your team can’t pitch, all the other problems become magnified.

So here are five moves that could solve some of those problems and help the Red Sox climb out of the AL East cellar. The overwhelming theme here is that with each move, the Red Sox not only get better, but they also get depth for the bullpen, starting rotation and outfield positions -- something they’ve sorely lacked and a major reason for their late-season collapse in 2011.

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Big league managers have a hard enough time contending with things they can control, let alone things they can’t. A 162-game season is never a cakewalk, but when there are distractions and concerns early in the season, it doesn’t portend for smooth sailing for any skipper.

Some skippers are already contending with some unpleasant variables just two weeks into the season. Some came into spring training shouldering issues, while others might have made them with certain personnel decisions. But the kicker to it all is managers don’t play the game, so they’re somewhat at the mercy of player performance, which means they’re really not in control of as much as they think.

Below are five managers and what is distracting each of them. Are they panicking? Perhaps not yet, but they certainly should be feeling the heat.

Dusty Baker

Baker is in the last year of his contract, and despite winning the division in 2010, his contract hasn’t been extended yet, though the club has signed general manager Walt Jocketty, first baseman Joey Votto and second baseman Brandon Phillips to long-term deals. So Baker remains somewhat of a lame duck manager. With the shadows of both Terry Francona and Tony La Russa looming, as well as Hall of Famer Barry Larkin, there is a growing sense that Baker must win to keep his job, or else one of those three will replace him. It is not a healthy position for Baker, and he will manage with more immediacy rather than over the long haul of 162 games.

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From a general manager’s point of view, April and May are pitfalls.

Everything gets magnified at the beginning of the season. You have to be extremely careful because it’s much easier to make mistakes in evaluations in April and May than at any other time of year. Early-season performances are overrated for both players and teams.

For instance, when a great team like the Los Angeles Angels struggles, people immediately jump off the bandwagon. Or when a team like the New York Mets starts off strong, people actually believe this is the year. In the end, we all know where both those teams are headed.

With a player, there could be a myriad of reasons he is struggling. Anything from an injury to mechanics, the weather, age, playing in a new league, off-field/family issues or a long layoff can contribute to a slow start.

However, by the end of May, GMs should be able to make solid player evaluations in order to prepare trade options and targeting ways to improve the team by the July 31 trade deadline. The key is to discern the real red flags from the red herrings early in the season, and several players clearly have legitimate issues. Their GMs have every right to be nervous about their slow starts. Here are five players whose recent performances are great cause for concern:

Tim Lincecum, RHP

Lincecum said he was going to scrap his slider this year because of the wear and tear it puts on his arm. I don’t know if that means the slider bothers his elbow, shoulder, biceps or forearm. But what that does tell me is that he has some pain. So when he says he’s healthy, but his velocity is down and command is off, it’s time to make sure he really is healthy.

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