With two weeks (and the Dec. 12 Army-Navy game) remaining in college football’s regular season, the races at the top of the FBS conferences are coming into sharper focus.
For each FBS conference, we run through the scenarios under which contenders could win their division (or conference), clinch a spot in their conference championship game or clinch the tiebreaker for the conference’s No. 1 spot (Power 5 followed by Group of 5). All games are Saturday unless noted.
Atlantic: Clemson has clinched.
Coastal: North Carolina has clinched.
Oklahoma State clinches with a win against Oklahoma and Baylor losing one of its last two games (at TCU, against Texas). Baylor is 52 percent likely to beat TCU and 93 percent to beat Texas.
Baylor clinches with two wins and an Oklahoma State win against Oklahoma.
East: Michigan State clinches with a win against Penn State (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN/WatchESPN). Michigan State is 80 percent likely to win.
Ohio State clinches with a win at Michigan (noon ET, ABC/WatchESPN) and a Michigan State loss. Ohio State is 58 percent likely to beat Michigan.
Michigan clinches with a win and a Michigan State loss.
West: Iowa has clinched.
North: Stanford has clinched the division.
East: Florida has clinched.
West: Alabama clinches with a win at Auburn (3:30 p.m. ET) or an Ole Miss loss at Mississippi State. Alabama is 78 percent likely to win.
Ole Miss clinches with a win at Mississippi State (7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN2/WatchESPN) and an Alabama loss. Ole Miss is 59 percent likely to win.
East: Temple clinches with a win against Connecticut (7 p.m. ET, ESPNU/WatchESPN) or a South Florida loss at UCF on Thursday. Temple is 86 percent likely to win.
South Florida clinches with a win at UCF on Thursday (7:30 p.m. ET Thursday, ESPN/WatchESPN) and a Temple loss. South Florida is 92 percent likely to win.
East: Bowling Green has clinched.
West: Northern Illinois clinches with a win against Ohio on Tuesday (7:30 p.m. ET Tuesday, ESPNU/WatchESPN) or a Toledo loss to Western Michigan on Friday. Northern Illinois is 79 percent likely to win.
Toledo clinches with a win against Western Michigan on Friday (noon ET Friday) and a Northern Illinois loss. Toledo is 71 percent likely to win.
West: San Diego State has clinched.
Mountain: Air Force has clinched.
Arkansas State clinches sole possession of the title with a win at New Mexico State (4 p.m. ET, WatchESPN/ESPN3) and an Appalachian State loss against Louisiana Lafayette and a Georgia Southern loss against South Alabama. Arkansas State is 88 percent likely to win. Appalachian State is 93 percent likely to win, and Georgia State is 96 percent likely to win.
Arkansas State clinches a share of the title with a win or losses by Appalachian State and Georgia Southern.
Note: FPI projections noted above are as of Tuesday, Nov. 24.