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Friday, January 25, 2013
Biggest plays this season for Ravens

By Dean Oliver, ESPN Stats & Info


Lloyd Fox/Baltimore Sun/Getty Images
The Ravens playoff win over the Broncos contained several big swings in win probability.

Earlier today, we took a look at the 10 most-important plays for the San Francisco 49ers on their way to the Super Bowl.

Now, we switch focus to the Baltimore Ravens, and the plays that most improved their chances of winning through the regular season and playoffs.

1. Divisional Playoff at Denver
4th and 5, 13:24 left in 2nd Overtime
Justin Tucker's walk-off field goal sends Baltimore to AFC Championship.


Tucker's 47-yard field goal ended a wild game against the Denver Broncos and sent to the Ravens to the AFC Championship, where they would defeat the New England Patriots.

Ravens' win probablility pre-play: 58.9%; post-play: 100% (+41.1%)

2. Divisional Playoff at Denver
3rd and 3, 0:41 left in 4th Quarter
Joe Flacco hits Jacoby Jones for 70-yard TD


Down a touchdown with under a minute left and needing a miracle, Flacco's heave down the right sideline found Jones to tie the game in dramatic fashion.

Ravens' win probablility pre-play: 2.9%; post-play: 43.3% (+40.4%)

3. Divisional Playoff at Denver
2nd and 6, 1:01 left in 1st Overtime
Corey Graham picks off Peyton Manning in OT


Again revisiting one of the most dramatic and back-and-forth games of the season, Manning's pass intended for Brandon Stokley was intercepted, giving Baltimore the ball in Denver territory. Just five plays later, Tucker won the game with a field goal.

Ravens' win probablility pre-play: 32.4%; post-play: 68.5% (+36.1%)

The rest of the Ravens' top 10:

4. Tucker hits a 38-yard field goal in overtime to win a Week 12 road game against the San Diego Chargers (+35.2%).

5. Pass interference on the New England Patriots' Devin McCourty, covering Jones, sets up play No. 6 (+29.9%).

6. Tucker's 27-yard field goal with two seconds left in overtime gave the Ravens a 16-13 win over the Patriots (28.0%).

7. Ray Rice converts 4th-and-29 in the Week 12 win over the Chargers to set up play No. 4 (+23.9%).

8. A 107-yard kickoff return touchdown by Jacoby Jones helps the Ravens to a 31-29, Week 6 win over the Dallas Cowboys (+22.7%).

9. Ed Reed's goal-line fumble recovery in Baltimore's 9-6 win at the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 5 (+19.7%).

10. Flacco hits Torrey Smith with a go-ahead TD pass in a Ravens' Week 9 road win over the Cleveland Browns (+19.1%).