New numbers on Kobe Bryant in crunch time
Jesse Garrabrant/NBAE/Getty Images
The Celtics are among Kobe Bryant's seven 2009-2010 victims.
Through the years, there have been many different sets of data about clutch shooting. Any which way I have ever seen it sliced (last five minutes of close games to last ten seconds), as I have written on TrueHoop before, it has looked like Kobe Bryant has been a guy who shoots a ton in crunch time, and hits at a pretty good, but not elite, rate.
I'm open to the idea that he could still be the best clutch player in the NBA. At that time of the game, there's value in being able to create scoring opportunities. Bryant may shoot those difficult fallaways that often miss, but he'd be a far worse player if he couldn't get a shot off at all. And that's the situation some lesser players would find themselves in.
Quite honestly, I think the real way to crown a crunch time king would be with video. Somebody should make a TV special where they string together every crunch time touch of the handful of elite end-game players (Bryant, LeBron James, Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony etc.) If we want to tell the world that somebody is the most likely to succeed in a certain setting, let's take an honest and complete look at how they do in that setting. Show me the turnovers, the misses and all that. Let everyone watch all of that video -- not just the makes! -- and at the end of that I think we'll end up with a good sense of who's the best.
A lot of sports fans think it's crazy talk to even consider candidates other than Bryant. And they're especially vocal right now, when Bryant seems to be hitting game-winners just about every night.
So, how's it going?
Very well.
Peter D. Newmann of NBA Statistics and Information Research has tallied some numbers that take into account this season. Here are some of his findings:
- This season, Bryant has made seven of the 12 shots, with a chance to win or tie the game, in the last ten seconds of regulation or overtime.
- Bryant's the only player in the last decade who has made seven such shots in a season.
- Bryant has made 26 of the 89 potential game tying or game-winning field goals he has shot over the last decade. That's 29.2%, which is slightly above League average.
- His game-winners, against the Heat, Bucks, Kings, Celtics, Grizzlies, Heat and Raptors come in a season when no other player has hit more than three such shots. Derrick Rose has the second-most attempts, with eight.
- The best field goal percentage, on potential game-tying or game-winning field goals in the last 10 seconds of the fourth quarter or overtime, belongs to Chris Paul. He has hit three of his four shots. Chris Bosh, Chris Duhon, Tim Duncan, Raymond Felton, Rudy Gay, David Lee, Rashard Lewis and O.J. Mayo are all two of three. This season, the League as a whole makes just 26.7% of its shots in that situation.
- Over the last decade, by field goal percentage the best shooters in this setting have been Carmelo Anthony (13-28, .464), Pau Gasol (9-22, .409), Tony Parker (11-29, .379), Chris Paul (9-24, .375) and Shawn Marion (10-28, .357). Bryant over the same period is 26-89 (.292).
- Bryant has attempted by far the most such shots of anyone over the last decade. His 89 is trailed by Vince Carter's 69, Paul Pierce's 57, Dwyane Wade's 51 and LeBron James' 50.
- Bryant's 26 makes also lead the League, followed by Carter with 20, Ray Allen with 17 and Allen Iverson's 14. Carmelo Anthony, Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki and Paul Pierce have each made 13.
Amadou Gallo Fall: The NBA's man in Johannesburg
Photo: Catherine Steenkeste
Amadou Gallo Fall, pictured with Spurs general manager R.C. Buford, is heading up the NBA's new office in Johannesburg.
It's not unusual in Africa to see kids wearing David Beckham jerseys, but you'd be hard-pressed to find a pick-up game or anything emblazoned with a Lakers or Bulls logo. Amadou Fall is the man in charge of changing that. In January, the Senegal native was named vice president of development for the NBA in Africa after 12 years working as director of player personnel and vice president of international affairs for the Dallas Mavericks. Fall will be in charge of opening the NBA's office in Johannesburg this spring. This week, Fall is in Dakar to announce the eighth annual Basketball without Borders camp in Africa. I caught up with him by telephone.
You've arrived in Africa. What's the first item on your to-do list?
On this trip, we're first in Senegal to plan for Basketball without Borders. We've held events in Johannesburg since 2003, but we're having the event in Senegal for the first time. Once we get to Johannesburg, the first item on the agenda is to hunt for office space. We'll have some meetings, then get back to New York, where we're working now. We'll then be back to open up the office. Speaking in general terms, our agenda starts with engaging all the basketball stakeholders in Africa.
Who are some of those stakeholders?
First and foremost, the basketball federations and the local entities. At the end of the day, in every country, the basketball federation is the local authority. You also have the governmental authorities and the minister of sports. These are bridges we have to build. There's been sound groundwork laid before us. Let's remember that the NBA has had a presence in Africa for nearly 20 years now. Dikembe Mutombo, Patrick Ewing, Wes Unseld were in South Africa in 1993. A year later, the commissioner was part of a trip. Even before Basketball without Borders, there were trips to Kenya. Opening the office in Johannesburg is just the next step in this two-decade long relationship. Now we have the chance to go and have a physical presence.
Is the goal of opening the office to extend the NBA brand into Africa or is it to develop more African players for the NBA?
The goal is to grow the game of basketball at the grassroots level. The exciting thing is this: Without much of an infrastructure on the ground, there have still been 22 people who have made their way to the NBA. You have Hakeem Olajuwon, one of the top 50 players ever. Dikembe had a Hall-of-Fame career. We've got some young guys: Luol Deng, DeSagana Diop and Luc Mbah a Moute, who attended our camp back in 2003. You see all this tremendous potential coming out of places where there is little infrastructure. As basketball has grown over the last few years, it has truly become a global game. Africa is on the map and now we're really going to grow the game here and increase participation, but one of the biggest issues we're up against is the lack of infrastructure.
When I was in West Africa, one of the things I found surprising was that few people -- adults and kids -- had any interest in talking hoops. You couldn't find anyone wearing NBA gear, which isn't the case in Asia. In West Africa, it was all soccer, all the time.
There's really no point of reference, so to speak. There just isn't that connection to the game. Also, the lack of infrastructure is a big factor. Basketball isn't a game you can just pick up. In soccer, when kids start walking, they start kicking anything that's in their way. You don't need much to create a soccer pitch. So now we're going in and focus on making the game accessible by creating platforms for kids to play.
What percentage of kids in Africa play basketball?
It's tough to put a number on. Maybe it's about 30 million. You could dispute that, but now that we're on the ground we'll be able to impact that number rapidly. With training, grassroots events and instruction we can encourage kids to pick up a basketball.
If you live in Africa and you want to follow the NBA, how do you go about doing that?
Right now, with the internet and technology, it's becoming accessible. The NBA has been seen in 54 countries in Africa. There are television partners. Part of making the game accessible is making sure that people are able to watch our games. There are avenues. We have satellite television and the internet. It's not as far off as we might think from a distance, and that's only going to increase. As that happens, the rest of our business will grow naturally.
Can we speak about some of the impediments that exist getting a kid with talent and an inclination to play from Africa to the NBA?
Again, making the game more accessible will alleviate a lot of those roadblocks. There's a lot of misinformation, but we think accessibility --
Isn't it more than just "accessibility," though? I'm not suggesting this is unique to Africa -- we could be talking about Baltimore or Los Angeles. But it seems like there are often people around a talented young player -- a "trainer" or a "minister of athletics" or a "village leader" -- who all want their pockets filled. Isn't this bigger than the fact that it's easier to build a soccer field than a basketball court? These issues are real, aren't they?
Yes, they're real. But by training teachers of the game, by creating the infrastructure, by developing the right type of expertise, I think it will put a lot of these myths in a different light.
They're myths?
No. What I mean is that when someone can come and sell a kid a bill of goods or a pipe dream, these kids will have a better understanding of what's realistic. We'll get involved in teaching the basics. At the same time, we'll make sure that kids understand that this is more than just a game. It can be utilized to achieve great things in life and not just playing in the NBA. Our goal is not just to come find the Next Great One. That will happen, I believe, out of the work we'll put into training, and giving people who want to do that training opportunities to do so. By having the right kind of people around the game and around these young people, you alleviate a lot of those problems. And these problems exist in America too, where you have misguided people in it for their own personal gain.
But I don't think we're going to be in Africa to police that. But if we do it our way, do what we do best, we'll grow the game. The game is what's at the core of our business. Engaging these communities, making sure we give back, emphasizing the importance of getting involved -- our guys are doing that. Luc Mbah a Moute had his camp in Cameroon. Guys like DeSagana Diop and Boris Diaw are giving kids opportunities they didn't necessarily have in their native countries. These players are taking a stake, and that will move the needle in the right direction. But we won't come in and act like we're the police. That's not our mission. But we're committed to growing the game and teaching the right values so that young people who have a hunger for the game will have an opportunity to succeed.
Looking five years down the road, how are you going to gauge success?
By how much the game has grown and by how much participation has increased. You asked me earlier what percentage of kids in Africa play the game. My hope is that we'll be talking about a significant number. We'll have better-trained coaches and a better quality of basketball. You can gauge that now. This past summer, when I was in Tripoli for the African championships. You could see a big difference in the level of play. Basketball without Borders has had an impact. I look around the national teams and see players who went to the camps. There are also players who have been through American universities who are taking back what they've learned by going back to their countries and getting involved with their national team. So five years down the road, competition between African nations will be a good indication. In soccer, you see all these pros go back and play for their native countries.
Can you give me the names of a few young African players who will be playing in the NBA one day?
Our mission is so broad, I don't want to focus on specific players. Why don't you come to Basketball without Borders? That would be a great place for you to see them!
Oh, the travel request to Dakar is already in. Haven't heard anything back!
Tell them to send you!
I'm totally into it. I could hit the beach in Cape Verde on my way back.
There are some good players in Cape Verde, too!
Honestly, it's getting really obnoxious with you referring to to the people who study analyze basketball statistics as "geeks" or "dorks." Whether intentional or not, you bring a stigma to the people who study it and just make it sound like these people are above us and very snooty. Just read Hollinger's last article about the future of analytics and how teams are hiding their information. Not once is the word geek or dork used, yet he does a wonderful job getting his point across. In fact, it is much more pleasant to read his articles than basically anytime you mention advance statistics.
People who are into sabermetrics are not known as geeks or dorks, and it should be no different for basketball. All they are doing is analyzing statistics. In fact, all fans are constantly doing that. When they compare points, assists or blocks per game, everybody is doing their own version of statistical analysis. It just so happens that what the people studying advanced statistics are doing is more complexed analysis that generally yields better results. Please, please stop using the words dork and geek every time you mention advanced stats. I really like your work, and appreciate that you are doing a large part in opening people's eyes to advanced statistical analysis -- but you are also making many people dislike it, and find it to be something obnoxious, and grow to resent it. I hope you take my e-mail seriously.
Not that it matters, but I could hardly be more blatantly pro-geek, even saying earlier this week that it's clear the geeky NBA teams were right all along. (When I left the house for the MIT Sloan conference, my wife said, "Don't be too geeky!" I replied, "That's a promise I can't keep.") The idea that Jonathan has been reading TrueHoop, yet suspects I'd throw around those words thinking they might demean, makes me feel we're having, as they say, a "failure to communicate."
Of course, my sunny intentions matter not at all, if, as Jonathan suggests, the effect of saying "geek" is, in fact, harmful. And it's not just Jonathan who thinks they are. Notably, one of the titans of the field, Dean Oliver, says that he finds designations like "geek" and "jock" to be misguided. And I have to respect that, I really do. I know that those words have been part of the bullying of brainiacs for decades, and I hate that.
I do it anyway, though, out of a certain geeky calculation:
- To build credibility with the old guard who would never read an article about "quants," but know what geeks are.
- To show a blatant lack of shame in the word "geek."
The NBA is a big business where success is determined, in many cases, by one man being bigger, stronger or tougher than another man. It is physically difficult to move Shaquille O'Neal, and that fact alone played a major role in building an NBA dynasty. The default, throughout the history of the game, has been to think of the challenge of sports as one that was primarily physical.
In that world, it's an outsider's bold theory that people who only know Excel could really make a difference. (Michael Jordan, in his Hall of Fame acceptance speech, spat on the idea that even his general manager could have had a major role in winning games. What about his general manager's number cruncher?)
My point: Yes, statistical analysts have come a long way very quickly in this game, but at the same time, they're also facing marginalization, for sure. They are the new kids, judged with suspicion. Should stat geekery fail in some way, there would be plenty of people ready to say, "I told you so."
Preaching to the converted is fun and all, but if that kind of closed-mindedness is to be addressed meaningfully, the only dialogue that matters is with those old-guard skeptics. And to them, the people we're talking about are, simply, geeks. Or nerds. Or dorks. They just are. Those people aren't going to think "ooh, let's go to TrueHoop to read about quantatative analysis." But they might read about geeks -- at least that makes sense.
Does that mean that using those words is capitulating to bullies? Hardly. I think the fastest way out of the insult "geek" is to turn the tag into an honor. (May 25's Geek Pride Day is coming!) Make it a rallying cry! Remember when the word "gay" was in insult? What's better -- getting people to stop saying that word, or making clear anyone who ever used it as an insult was always wrong? I'll choose B. It's a longer term play, and it stirs up some trouble, but anything else strikes me as dishonest.
Wednesday Bullets
- The mistakes the Raptors made in letting Kobe Bryant get a good look at the game-winner last night. It wasn't enough that they let Bryant get to a spot he likes ... they also left him a pretty amazing plan B: Look at Lamar Odom in these still images of the play. Also, where was Jarrett Jack?
- On Michael Lee's Wizards Insider blog, Flip Saunders explains how to play against Kevin Garnett, whom he coached for a decade: "That's what Garnett does, he talks. He's talked for his whole career. He tries to get into people. He gets more frustrated with guys like Tim Duncan that don't talk back. Guys that talk back, he feels like he's getting through to him and it kind of motivates him, gets his juices kind of flowing. One thing you don't want to do with a guy with a high motor, a high-energy guy like Garnett. You don't want to force them to go to the next level."
- A look at ball movement and assists reveals that the Lakers may be missing Luke Walton more than you'd think.
- An article points out that second-round NBA picks don't get guaranteed contracts. Which is only kind of true. Only first-round picks are guaranteed to get guaranteed contracts, if you see what I mean, but second-rounders can negotiate for whatever they want, and many get guaranteed money. Some get more than those drafted ahead of them in the first round -- which is a tidy little indication that the rookie pay scale is set at below market value. Why does any of this matter? 'Cause it's the time of year when players on the bubble start deciding whether or not they want to declare for the draft, and if you think you're headed for the high second-round, well, you could be headed for a good NBA contract.
- In video and in stats, Andrew Bogut looked like a top overall pick last night in a potential playoff preview victory over the Celtics.
- The people who made the NBA Jam video game don't offer Gilbert Arenas as a Wizard option next year.
- Wayne Winston projects that the Nuggets, Mavericks and Jazz will each finish with 54 wins, making a logjam behind the Lakers in the Western playoff picture.
- Lots of Nets are really bad.
- Kevin Arnovitz pointed out an amazing play from last night's Clippers-Magic game. About halfway through the third quarter, Baron Davis missed a layup. The Magic got the board. Everyone ran, as they do, to the other end of the court. Only as the camera tracked left, Davis was nowhere to be found. His man, Vince Carter, was not running so fast, but at least he was in the picture. Chris Kaman matched Carter stride for stride, until stopping at the top of the key to mark Howard. Carter's no dummy, and just kept jogging to the hoop, where he was ALL ALONE. Davis jogged into the picture about the same time Carter made the uncontested layup. That's not championship defense. Drew Gooden turned over his shoulder to see Carter make the uncontested layup, and held his head in is hands for a minute before heading upcourt.
- Learn the name: Donetas Motiejunas. He's seven-feet tall, he can shoot, and he's projected to be a lottery pick this year.
- Salt Lake Tribune beat writer Ross Siler is keeping a road journal: "How do I watch an NBA game? For starters, I take notes on every possession, regardless whether a team scores. You’re always on the lookout for the game-turning moment as well as the night’s trend. You keep track of fouls, substitutions, timeouts, lineup combinations, everything. You’re always watching for the back-to-back baskets that will turn into a 12-2 run. You pay attention to body language and the way players communicate with one another. And when you need a laugh, you just look over at whatever Kyrylo Fesenko is doing."
- Stat geeks on the bench.
- Dwyane Wade finds that punching Michael Beasley seems to motivate him, but he's not going to punch him a lot, 'cause one day he might punch back.
- Brandon Roy's hamstring is still a concern. He tells Benjamin Golliver of BlazersEdge: "I kind of have good days, bad days, good plays, bad plays. Sometimes I'll tweak it and I'll stay off of it for a little bit. It's something I've got to play with and try to deal with it."
- The Jazz hanmered the Bulls. Matt McHale of By the Horns: "Deron Williams was awesome. Williams had game highs in points (28) and assists (17) while shooting 11-for-15 from the field and 3-for-5 in threes. Derrick Rose couldn’t stop him. Kirk Hinrich couldn’t stop him. Williams dominated the game. Controlled it. Owned it. Forget the stats. Williams put on a virtuoso performance. Maybe it was his Booms Beard Lite. But it says something about him that he could so vastly outplay a fellow All-Star like Rose."
- Zach McCann of Orlando Magic Daily e-mails: "After the Lakers lost to the Magic and Kobe Bryant bricked the potentially game-tying 20-footer at the buzzer, Bryant told the media, 'That is my shot. You give that to me 10 times and I make it nine times.' Actually, Kobe, one look at HoopData.com tells us that you make that shot four out of 10 times."
- Ramona Shelburne of ESPNLosAngeles.com: "I've seen a lot of press releases in my career. What the Clippers sent late Tuesday afternoon -- a sharp-tongued, 230-word document titled 'CLIPPERS, DUNLEAVY SEVER TIES' -- was not a press release. It was a mission statement and something of an apology to season-ticket holders who paid good money to watch one of the most frustrating teams in the NBA the past couple of seasons. Trust me, team president Andy Roeser saw each of those 'Fire Dunleavy' signs floating around Staples Center as the team won 19 games last season and stumbled through this one. Although the powers that be had good intentions, allowing Mike Dunleavy to step down as coach and keep his job as general manager on Feb. 4 wasn't enough of a bloodletting. When a fan base is as frustrated as Clipper Nation has become, someone's head has to roll. ... Generally, even in the worst professional breakup, people pretend to like each other. They use phrases like 'go in a different direction' and 'We thank Coach So-and-so for his efforts and commitment to the franchise.' In this case, the Clippers wanted it known that this was not a clean break."
- Bill Plaschke of the Los Angeles Times: "Control of the Clippers is now there for the taking. An organization with the most underutilized potential in all of sports is now open for shaping. The office is empty for the strongest of general managers. The bench is available for the best of head coaches. The building is even unlocked for someone who can do both. Now introducing Clippers general manager, coach and forward LeBron James. Crazy, sure, but you have to wonder whether the Clippers didn't suddenly ax Dunleavy because they received word that there's somebody out there who could deliver them potential free-agent James. Now introducing, Clippers forward LeBron James and two of his high school chums as general manager and coach. Crazy, too, but that's the thing about what happened Tuesday. The Clippers didn't lose a general manager, they gained a world of possibilities."
- Lisa Dillman of the Los Angeles Times: "The big question to analyze: Why now, and not a clean sweep in February? Team President
Andy Roeser was not available to answer that specific question, but did provide insight into the decision making. 'With all due respect to Mike, we arrived at the realization that we weren't going to be able to move forward together in the long term, and we felt that, in order to give us the most flexibility as we approach this opportunity-filled off-season, making a clean break was our best option at this time,' Roeser said in an e-mail to The Times. 'We think Neil Olshey is well prepared to meet the mandate to lead us to a 'win-now' mentality, and to take advantage of the many opportunities that lie ahead.' (Subtext: Let's get everything in order before LeBron James comes to visit this summer.) Olshey has been with the Clippers since the 2003-04 season and was considered a Dunleavy protege." - Mike Bresnahan of the Los Angeles Times: "Not that the suddenly overtaxed Lakers need the reminder, but their top player is spending a lot more time on the court. Kobe Bryant is averaging 38.8 minutes a game after averaging only 36.1 last season, a relatively large jump that makes him and 22-year-old Andrew Bynum the only Lakers starters logging more minutes this season. 'It shows maybe the need, the desire to have him on the floor, something along the lines that we need him out there to win games,' Coach Phil Jackson said. Jackson said he was surprised by the size of the increase in playing time but not troubled by it, perhaps because Bryant took an 18-day break last month while sidelined by an ankle injury for five games."
- Chris Iott of Booth Newspapers: "All of Rodney Stuckey’s tests there came back negative, and it’s a good bet those tests are being repeated now that Stuckey is back in Detroit. If there is even an inkling that his collapse had anything to do with his heart, he will not be back on the court anytime soon. No one involved in the NBA has forgotten about Reggie Lewis. No one wants that tragedy to repeat itself. Pistons coach John Kuester won’t discuss a timetable for Stuckey’s return, but he sounds like a guy who expects to see his starting point guard back on the court. ... Of course, in the end, the decision about when -- or if -- Stuckey comes back is up to one person: Stuckey. It really is none of our business. But whether or not doctors find something wrong with Stuckey, he has only two options when it comes to basketball: Quit or play. No one would blame Stuckey for taking option No. 1. It is his life. But if he chooses option No. 2, there’s no reason to wait until fall. Either Stuckey is healthy enough to return to his career as an NBA player, or he’s not. If he is, he should come back whenever he feels like it. Waiting until October won’t change a thing."
- Tom Enlund of the Journal Journal: "The NBA's time machine has to be dialed back to 1987 to find the last time that the Milwaukee Bucks clashed with the Boston Celtics in a playoff series. The Celtics won that Eastern Conference semifinal series in seven games in what was the conclusion to an almost annual playoff rivalry between Milwaukee and Boston in the mid-'80s. Boston coach Doc Rivers recalls some of those classic Bucks-Celtics playoff tussles. At the time he was a big man on campus at Marquette University. 'Those were great series,' said Rivers Tuesday. 'It was just that the Bucks couldn't win them (except for 1983). They were so close. We were talking about that a couple weeks ago, how people forget how good the Bucks were back then because the Sixers and the Celtics won every year (in the East). But the team that was always nipping on their heels was the Bucks. They just had the misfortune of being in the wrong conference. You could make the case if they were in the other conference, they might have made some of those Finals.' The Celtics defeated the Bucks in seven games in the 1974 NBA Finals. There is still a long way to go before this season's first-round playoff matchups are determined, but the way things are going now, there is a chance Milwaukee and Boston could meet."
- Mike Baldwin of The Oklahoman: "Kevin Durant is surprised people like Magic Johnson, who recently interviewed him, is shocked he’s comfortable with small-market Oklahoma City instead of playing in New York, Los Angeles or Chicago. 'I was watching the Larry Bird-Magic Johnson documentary the other day,' Durant said. 'I’m similar to Bird. I like being at home. I like staying at my mom’s house and her cooking. That’s the kind of person I am. I’m not into the big city lights and the paparazzi, that type of stuff. I just love playing basketball and chillin’ out.' In the HBO documentary Durant referred to, Bird was comfortable in French Lick, Ind., while Johnson preferred the constant entertainment in Hollywood. 'I can relate to both of those guys -- Magic Johnson for how much he loves the game and his enthusiasm for the game and Larry Bird for how laid back and relaxed he is,' Durant said. 'That’s the kind of guy I am off the court. I’m good in Oklahoma City. I love it here. I like going outside and seeing the neighbors and they say, ‘Hello.’ They make me cookies and give me Skittles. There are cities you may not get that.' "
- Frank Isola of the New York Daily News: "Donnie Walsh is skipping the Big East Tournament to keep a trained eye on the Big Wreck that is his basketball team. The Knicks' president was expected to accompany the club on its five-game trip with the growing sense within the organization that the entire basketball staff is on high alert. The Knicks (22-41) enter Wednesday's game against the Spurs on pace to lose 50 games for the second straight season. The roster will be overhauled, especially with Walsh having enough salary-cap space to sign two 'max' free agents. Walsh is still deliberating which Knicks to re-sign, including David Lee, and he may also be contemplating changes to the support staff, particularly since the team has struggled defensively. In typical Walsh fashion, he's downplaying his presence on the trip, saying, 'This gives me a chance to be around the team. It's really the last chance this season for me to do this.' Still, Walsh's scheduling change comes days after an ugly home loss to the Nets and after he accepted responsibility for the Knicks' wretched season and deflected blame from his head coach, Mike D'Antoni."
- Mary Schmitt of The Plain Dealer: "Well, what did you expect? Naming Michael Jordan as the Cavaliers' top antagonist of all-time was almost as easy as selecting LeBron James as the top Cavs player of all-time. For all the cumulative damage Jordan did throughout his career, nothing crushed the franchise like The Shot -- over an outstretched Craig Ehlo -- that gave the Chicago Bulls a 101-100 victory in the deciding Game 5 of the first-round of the Eastern Conference playoffs on May 7, 1989. That shot, and the game, propelled Jordan and the Bulls into the stratosphere. Neither they, nor the Cavs, were ever the same again. It was Cleveland's misfortune to field some of its best teams as Jordan was at his greatest. 'You look at the top 10 players on our team and then compare them to the their top 10 and we were the better team,' Wayne Embry, the Cavs' general manager from 1986-96, recently told The Plain Dealer's Terry Pluto. 'But they had greatness. It's just so hard to beat greatness.' "
- Mike McGraw of the Daily Herald: "Utah coach Jerry Sloan delivered several good lines while meeting with reporters before Tuesday's game against the Bulls. Sloan was asked how he's lasted 22 years with the Jazz when most other NBA coaches seem to lose touch with their players within a few seasons. 'I tell our players, 'I'm going to be here and you may not,' ' he said. 'I've been real fortunate that our owner gave me the opportunity to say that when he first started out. Coaches are going to be here and players are expendable. -- If you don't have support, you don't have a fighting chance.' Someone asked Sloan what he thought about his 1970s-era photo on a mural honoring Bulls legends that went up outside the locker room this year. He hadn't seen it. 'I don't think it affects me in any way,' Sloan said. 'Like my friend said, 'I'll still eat hamburgers.' ' When it was pointed out that Jazz rookie Othyus Jeffers, a West Side native, requested 150 tickets for Tuesday's game, Sloan responded, 'I couldn't afford to buy tickets when I played. These young guys make a lot more money.' "
- Ted Kulfan of The Detroit News: "Isn't it strange that Jonas Jerebko could be playing better in the NBA this season than he ever did in Europe? Jerebko thinks there might be a reason why. In Europe, said Jerebko, 'The game is so much more compact. It's more wide (open) here and you can do a lot more. I've grown in every aspect of the game (here).' Jerebko said 7-footers stay in the lane in Europe, waiting for opponents to drive to the basket. The NBA game is more open. 'You have to be on the move, it's an up-and-down game, and that shows my skills,' he said."
- Chris Dempsey of The Denver Post: "Generally, when Johan Petro has been called upon to fill in, he's played well. Last season, when Chris Andersen was unexpectedly out of the lineup for the Nuggets' game at Orlando in February, Petro answered the bell with two points, seven rebounds, a block and a steal. A reserve the majority of his career, Petro understands having to stay ready. But it didn't make waiting this season any easier. 'It was super hard,' Petro said. 'I had some ups and downs. Sometimes I didn't feel like coming (to practice). I felt like quitting, a little bit. But I always found a way to keep myself going. The league is about opportunities, and you never know when your number will be called. So you want to be ready for it, and I think that's what I've been trying to do here. 'I'm probably going to be more focused because I definitely have a lot to prove.' Petro started Sunday and may get that chance again tonight against Minnesota, but expect him to be used in a mix-and-match strategy going forward with Malik Allen and Joey Graham."
- Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle: "On the way out of the Verizon Center visitor's locker room, I passed Luis Scola and thought I'd make a modest suggestion, perhaps overstepping my position as a guest there, but still seeming on safe ground. 'Take tomorrow off,' I told him, knowing that the Rockets were not practicing and that he had been carrying such a heavy load. 'Oh, he won't,' said Wizards center Fabricio Oberto and Scola's former teammate with Argentina's national team. 'I can't,' Scola said. 'I took yesterday off.' The guy played an average of 42.5 minutes on the three-game road trip. He has had double-doubles in four-consecutive games, averaging 21.8 points and 16 rebounds. Scola has played 1,949 minutes this season and in three NBA seasons has still never missed a game. But he will be at Toyota Center on Wednesday, along with guys that rarely play, taking free throws and pushing through drills. 'That's his mentality,' Rockets assistant strength and conditioning coach Dave Macha said. "He'll shoot, work on his footwork, agility stuff. That's how he gets ready. With him, if he feels like he's prepared, he'll play a lot more aggressively, more confidently. Confidence breeds success. 'That's him. He's got to get ready, make sure he outworks the next guy.' "
- Dave Feschuk of the Toronto Star: "That Hedo Turkoglu is at the point of having to salvage a much-hyped season is disappointing for Raptors fans, of course. Turkoglu's improbable off-season acquisition was a joyous moment for a franchise whose depth chart could have been far shallower if not for some nifty navigation of the NBA's salary-cap regulations. But after playing at a high level in a contract year for the NBA finalist Orlando Magic last season, Turkoglu has clearly slacked off for parts of this season. The team gave him time off for fatigue to open training camp. He since has been plagued by poor conditioning and nagging injuries. And though his numbers aren't abhorrent – he is slightly below his career averages in most major statistical categories – there is a sense he has under-delivered. He has blamed his role instead of adapting to it, publicly stated his wish to have the ball more often on a team that sometimes plays point guards Jarrett Jack and Jose Calderon simultaneously. But those arguments are old now. And a lot will be forgotten if, as the Raptors steer themselves into the final quarter of the regular season, Turkoglu finds his form."
- Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel: "Michael Jordan, Charlotte’s impending majority owner, not only is becoming more of a fixture at Bobcats games, but now sits at the end of the team’s bench. Somehow, we couldn’t envision Pat Riley sharing fist pumps with Yakhouba Diawara."
- Mike Wells of The Indianapolis Star: "Don't get nervous about the Pacers beating the 76ers. The Pacers will have plenty of opportunities to lose games down the stretch. They've got to go to Cleveland twice, along with games against Boston, Milwaukee, Charlotte, Oklahoma City, Utah, Atlanta, Miami, Houston and Orlando. You should probably get nervous if they win in Boston and Milwaukee this weekend."
- Ailene Voisin of The Sacramento Bee: "The Kings are ramping up the rhetoric and festivities because, frankly, Tyreke Evans hints at a future beyond furloughs and foreclosures. How long has it been? How many years now? Accordingly, for tonight's game against the Toronto Raptors, the first 10,000 fans will receive a commemorative 'Rally for RekeROY' T-shirt. Another 5,000 can poke around with an Evans 'Face on a Stick.' There will be a highlight video during introductions, testimonials from fans and, for those who have forgotten what spontaneous applause is , cheat sheets will explain when to start and stop the R-O-Y chant. Small town? Small time? For sure. But as that English chap wrote, 'To thine own self be true.' (Shakespeare, Hamlet, Act I, Scene III). This is exactly the type of boosterism and corny behavior that plays well in Salt Lake City, Orlando, Charlotte, Milwaukee, Memphis and Indianapolis, and would be absolutely ridiculed in Los Angeles, New York, Chicago and even Bay Area. The Warriors, for instance, are shuttling ROY candidate Stephen Curry between sports talk shows and media gatherings, and otherwise leaving the theatrics to others. Others, say, like Sacramento."
- Jerry Briggs of the San Antonio Express-News: "San Marcos resident Charles Austin is known by one member of the New York Knicks as a former Olympian, a gold-medal winning champion and 'basically, the highest-jumping person in the United States.' Austin is also credited as a man who showed 29-year-old Knicks forward Jonathan Bender the way back to the NBA. 'I give him a lot of credit,' Bender said. 'When you're working out on your own, you can only go to a certain level. When you have someone who can come in and help you get there, it's a little different.' A personal trainer and owner of So High Sports and Fitness in San Marcos, Austin told Bender in November 2008 that he could assist the former No. 5 overall NBA draft pick if he wanted to return to basketball. The dream came true for Bender in December 2009 when he signed as a free agent with the Knicks."
The Clippers move on
Olshey's route to the top echelon of the Clippers organization is fascinating. He first arrived in Los Angeles as an actor, having appeared on a couple of ABC soap operas that taped in New York City. Once he came west, Olshey continued to work as a commercial actor, but ultimately ended up in the local high school basketball coaching ranks. He held an assistant coaching job at powerhouse Artesia High School, which has produced a bevy of talent in recent years, from Jason Kapono to James Harden. In 2001, Olshey landed at SFX, Arn Tellem and David Falk's agency, where he served as director of player development and prepped the company's clients for pre-draft workouts.
When Dunleavy got the head coaching job with the Clippers in 2003, Tellem recommended Olshey for a position. Olshey was hired by the Clippers as director of player development, the same title he held at SFX. From there, Olshey moved up the ranks. He assisted Dunleavy on the bench during the 2004-05 season, and was elevated to director of player personnel a season later. Once Elgin Baylor was ousted as general manager in favor of Mike Dunleavy in October 2008, Olshey was promoted to the role of assistant general manager, a job he held until Tuesday, when he claimed the mantle as the Clippers' general manager.
Sources around the league maintain that with Dunleavy focused primarily on his coaching responsibilities, Olshey has been the main pipeline into the Clippers' organization for a while now. Though Dunleavy -- and Clippers president Andy Roeser above him -- had veto power over any personnel moves, Olshey was the guy you called when you wanted to discuss deals. If that premise is correct, then Olshey had a big hand in getting the Clippers where they want to be financially heading into the summer.
The Clippers are placing a premium on flexibility as they strip their personnel down to the bare essentials in preparation for an active offseason. Only Baron Davis, Eric Gordon, Blake Griffin, Chris Kaman and DeAndre Jordan are under contract for 2010-11, and the organization will have somewhere in the neighborhood of $15-16 million to spend in free agency. Removing Dunleavy further enables them to reformulate, rebrand and reload.
In addition to extending a hefty contract to an elite player, might the Clippers also be looking for big names to preside in the front office and on the sidelines? Hours before the Clippers announced Dunleavy's termination, a report surfaced that Larry Brown reached out to the Clippers regarding a possible return to Los Angeles. Given the outcome in Charlotte's ownership situation, the likelihood of Brown taking a second tour with the Clippers seems unlikely, but the rumor does speak to the Clippers' desire for a complete makeover.
The timing of Dunleavy's firing is interesting considering that the Clippers are playing out the string under an interim coach. Evidently, the organization decided that even with one year remaining on his four-year, $22 million contract extension, Dunleavy's presence no longer offered value for the future. Personnel decisions of this magnitude are usually couched in conciliatory language, but the Clippers' press release was especially pointed:
The organization has determined that the goal of building a winning team is best served by making this decision at this time. The team has simply not made sufficient progress during Dunleavy’s seven-year tenure. The Clippers want to win now. This transition, in conjunction with a full commitment to dedicate unlimited resources, is designed to accomplish that objective.
The Clippers have placed themselves in a unique and advantageous position. Last month, they signaled that there's a potential opportunity for a top free agent to name his own coach. On Tuesday, that hypothetical was extended even further -- name your own coach and general manager.
If only the Clippers could say, "Name your owner."
Lamar Odom has no complaints
Married life is beautiful. I can't complain at all. There aren't too many times in life where one feels like he finds his soul mate, finds someone who understands you. We fit like hand and glove. We don't spend too much time apart, only for work. As a matter of fact I can't wait to get on the phone, get home and see my wife.
Odom was asked what it meant to him to be a Laker, and he replied:
Everything. It's special. Not too many people in their professional lives get to play for an organization that has so much tradition, that means so much to so many people. Anywhere I go, all over the world, people affiliate me with being a Laker, which is a big deal. The Lakers have to be one of the top three sports brands. I would say Cowboys, Yankees, Red Sox? Yankees or Red Sox, but Lakers is right there.
And finally, he was asked whether this year's Laker team is as good as last year's title-winners. Odom says yes, and adds:
We don’t get frustrated and baffled by losses. We stay composed at all times. Win, lose or draw. Teams take the personality of their coach a lot of times. You see teams go on a 15-20 run and Phil won't call a timeout. Just because we lost three straight or aren't playing well, we don't throw up the white flag or start pointing fingers. We know it’s going to be hard. We expect that.
- Daryl Morey's Facebook page: "My 8-year-old was playing NBA Live today & told me 'I figured out the strategy to beat the game.' Oh what is that? 'Just give the ball to Kobe.'"
- Gregg Popovich's beautiful inbounds play.
- John Hollinger ranks the best shooters of all time (Insider). You might be surprised to see who tops the list, and to see that Stephen Curry is on pace to make the top ten. And Kevin Pelton digs in a bit more.
- The Blazers had more front office geeky types at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference last weekend than available players for many games this season.
- The fact that LeBron James might be coming to New York may be helping the Knicks sell tickets already.
- Ryan Schwan of Hornets247: "Peja Stojakovic left the game with a groin strain. I saw him gripping his shorts in pain at one point, and I was just praying it wasn't his back again. I also can feel some solidarity with him, because I too strained my groin this weekend. Of course, he did it doing something cool like playing NBA basketball, and I did it trying to keep from tripping over my own feet while teaching my son to ride his bicycle. So, uh, maybe I'll just stop talking about groins now."
- If you're a fan of a team that isn't using advanced basketball analysis, should you feel a little cheated?
- WANTED: That guy in the Pistons snuggie at the Cavaliers' game.
- From last Friday, but still must-read: An amazing analysis of Jerry West's time as an NBA general manager.
- John Krolik of Cavs the Blog: "What Manu [Ginobili] does still have is that evil step-back jumper of his. I’ll never know quite how Manu gets the space that he does for that thing. The release isn’t quick, it’s kind of low, and Manu barely jumps when he shoots it. He makes it work somehow, and tonight Ginobili was just raining threes. About the only thing that could slow him down was an extra coat of paint on the line that turned his game-tying three into a two. Between Kobe and Ginobili, the three-point line has really helped the Cavs out in the race for the league’s best record."
- Shortly after going to Houston, Jordan Hill has his best game ever.
- How to dribble.
- Great Hollinger line: "When we say Nash equilibrium, by the way, we’re referring to John Nash, not Steve; and when we say John Nash, we’re referring to the guy from 'A Beautiful Mind,' not the one who drafted Sebastian Telfair ahead of Al Jefferson. Also, the paper was presented by somebody named Brian Skinner, which had us taking bets beforehand on whether he’d be a backup center with a two-toned goatee."
- Don't assume the Lakers are a great offensive team. They're a great defensive team, but the offense has had some trouble. Wayne Winston says Ron Artest and Andrew Bynum have not been great on offense.
- Dan Shanoff: "In the end, like everyone at the conference, I believe in analytics. But there is a misconception that analytics is about numbers, rather than about the intersection of numbers and people."
- "This Mike Bibby toy will haunt your dreams."
- Knickerblogger names Magic Johnson the greatest point guard of all time: "The most interesting thing about Magic’s career is how unlikely it was. A 6-8 point guard without three point range is unthinkable today. If you had to construct Magic from today’s players, you’d take Joe Johnson (minus the three point shot), give him Steve Nash’s passing and efficient scoring, add Ronnie Brewer’s steals, combine LeBron’s rebounding, and sprinkle a little of White Chocolate’s flash (from his Sacramento days). Just an unbelievable mix of attributes, and a truly unique athlete."
- Rasheed Wallace has stopped shooting so many 3s.
- The Knicks get a key stop for the win.
- Former Georgetown teammate Jerome Williams interviewed by LostLettermen.com before recent reports of trouble, talks about Allen Iverson off the court. "He’s an artist. The first thing that comes to my mind is coming into the locker room before big games and before the coaches had chance to put up the game plans on the chalk board, and Allen drawing caricatures of our team, his teammates on the board, in cartoon. And I mean he could really draw and he’d have us cracking up. I remember he drew a picture of Jahidi White with his belly out, holding a hamburger. I mean talk about breaking the ice before the game and getting everybody laughing. John Thompson, when he came in and looked at it, he had a good chuckle too. But just doing things like that. That’s something that probably nobody knows, but if you give him a pencil and a paper, he can really draw. I remember he drew pictures of me one time and one of my other teammates, who was from Africa -- he drew him with a Tarzan suit and a spear. And I mean he just created things like that and making people laugh. He always had a thing for making people laugh."
Mavericks' other streak ties record
According to the folks at Elias, that has never happened before … ever. The Mavs have already become the first team in nearly half a century to win 11 straight times by 10 points or less; the last club to do so was the 1962-63 Lakers.
That Laker team won 11 straight before losing, and then won 11 of their next 12, with nine victories by 10 points or fewer. In other words, their string of wins was even more bizarre than Dallas’ current run -- they went 22-2 over a 24-game stretch, with 20 wins by 10 or fewer. That Laker team is also a good example of how fortune in close games can be fickle. Just after that streak, they lost 10 times by 10 or fewer in the final month of the season.
If you’re curious, the 1962-63 Lakers went 18-15 the rest of the season after their 22-2 run and finished 53-27. L.A. was the top seed in the West and barely outlasted the St. Louis Hawks in the conference finals before losing in six games to the Celtics in the Finals. Of course, this was so long ago that "Hot Rod" Hundley, who retired this past season as Utah’s radio announcer at age 75, played on that Laker team.
The next closest streak is from more recent history: Cleveland, last March. The Cavs won nine straight games by 10 points or fewer before reeling off four more by more impressive margins (including, ironically, a 102-74 rout of the Mavs). A loss to the Wizards, of all teams, ended their streak at 13.
Dallas is going through a stretch similar to the '62-63 Lakers. This was only their second win by more than 10 points since Dec. 16, even though they’ve won 25 times in that stretch. No, that isn’t normal -- 12 of Dallas’ first 19 wins were by more than 10 points, for instance.
With upcoming home games against the Nets and Knicks, the Mavs have a great shot at extending their winning streak to 14 games … not to mention adding another double-digit win or two to their resume. Based on Tuesday’s Power Rankings and their home-court advantage in each game of their next two games, they would be 14-point favorites against New Jersey and 11-point favorites against New York.
But I have hardly ever bought tickets.
It's not because I don't want to go. It's not even because I can sit in the media section for free. I would like to go with friends and family, and hoot and holler. Instead of wearing starchy business garb at my laptop on press row, it would be fun to do what sports fans everywhere do -- to wear jeans and drink a beer. That difference is worth some money to me.
But not that much money. Holy cow, in a lot of cities to get a pair of reasonably good seats -- not amazing seats, but reasonably good seats -- is something like $300 before parking and beer and all that. Those are prices for corporate customers. People who are entertaining clients. People who are, frankly, writing off the expense.
It has been written a zillion times before: Because of those prices, the crowds at NBA games can be a little stiff. They're in starchy business garb too -- which makes sense, 'cause a lot of those people are there to work. To see and be seen. To impress people. To deal. To look good.
Sports are great ice-breakers. It is a great place to bring a client you hardly know. But if you do that, you are not going to let yourself act like a maniac fan, all delirious, boisterous and tipsy. You're unlikely to wear jeans, or go hoarse.
Cheap tickets would seem to be the only real way to address that.
The Timberwolves are now officially working the cheap tickets angle hard. In March, tickets are as much as half off, and there are even lower bowl season tickets that are ten dollars a game. They say it's going very well. "After one week," the team has announced, "the Minnesota Timberwolves 'Run with the Pack' ticket sales and renewal campaign resulted in the most new season tickets sold by the franchise in a one-week time since the NBA announced a franchise was coming to Minnesota. The team sold 300 new full season tickets during the record-setting week, while also renewing 30% of its current season ticket holders. At the same point last year, the team had only renewed 1.5% of its season ticket holders."
Timberwolves president of basketball operations David Kahn was part of a conversation with the business office that led to the drastic price reductions. "We want to start to re-energize the fan base next year as we start, we hope, a climb," Kahn explains. "It'll be easier to make that climb to the top with a very full, vibrant, loud building. This was an opportunity for us to start to reconnect, and to rebuild the fan base which at one point was one of the most rabid in the League."
Kahn then took a few of my questions about the decision.
A lot of NBA tickets are sold to people with corporate expense accounts, or people who can get tax write-offs for buying the tickets to entertain clients. I can't help but feel that hurts the atmosphere in the building. It's a little starchy, and less loud.
I agree with the overall premise. You want the building to be loud. But I've seen some people in suits and ties be pretty loud. I spent some time in New York. With a 41-game season, it's really hard for a lot of people, in today's society, to attend that many games. So when a business, small or large, buys those tickets, a lot of times it makes sense that they distribute those to all different people.
I don't think it's a case of wanting a certain kind of fan. We want those who are loud and boisterous. If it's your theory that those people tend not to work at businesses, I'm not sure I can ascribe to that. I've seen people in suits and ties be very loud.
I know this. This building was extraordinarily loud at one point, especially when the team made a run to the conference finals in 2004. I think it can return to that, and I think it will return to that. And this is a step toward making it so.
Have you heard from any of the other 29 teams, or the NBA about this? I could see somebody making an argument that you're devaluing the brand a bit. Ten-dollar lower bowl seats could theoretically make $100 lower bowl seats a tougher sell in another market.
The pricing of the very best seats are hardly ten dollars. There's some prime beachfront real estate, and the pricing is still quite expensive by anybody's standards. But the analogy that I've used is to think of the iPhone. Check me on this but I believe when it first came out, it was priced at $399. It came back a year later for $199 and with a better phone. I don't think anybody thought the iPhone had become devalued. It was just a way for it to broaden its usage, and it became even more iconic.
I see this as being a very similar product. Are tickets are being reduced in price in many cases, but I still believe there's enormous value, and hopefully this will mean there are more users.
If you're selling these tickets so cheaply, presumably that hurts how much you could spend on free agents down the road. Does this pricing decision point to the ongoing issues between large and small markets?
I don't want to say anything in defiance of the League's wishes that we stay quiet on collective bargaining. But I'll echo what the commissioner said at All-Star, there should be a more robust revenue-sharing program out of this agreement. I will say though, that having worked at Indiana for nine years, and now here, there's no question that he difference in broadcast markets has an impact on your revenues. I mean, that's just obvious. New York, L.A., Chicago, the Bay Area, they're in the top ten, and especially those first three, have the opportunity to drive revenues that simply don't exist for the rest of us. TV, radio, cable and even new media now ... ticket prices have always been a way for other markets to keep pace, but that's difficult to have that persist over a long period of time, whether there's an economic downturn or not. [In small markets] you ultimately have fewer consumers and have to keep raising prices to keep up.
I'm hopeful that the end result here is that the pricing decrease here will be made up with a fuller building and more buyers, and a better atmosphere for our team and our fans.
And I want to say this to you, really seriously. I get asked this a lot, by people as I travel with the team. How has attendance been this year? I actually think is has been better than I anticipated. I thought it would be a more difficult picture. With the exception of two or three home games, I think it has been reasonably OK. But no question, we can do better, and this is one way to do so.
I guess getting more people in the building can inspire other value for the team. More people who might watch on TV, who might buy some team merchandise, or talk their friends into going to a game.
Absolutely. The best thing for us is for people to be talking about us. This is one of those cases where you can't be anything but please if people are buying the tickets. And the more the merrier. ... And it adds value to every ticketholder. I always used to say, when I was in Indiana, that if the courtside seatholder can look up to the upper deck or the balcony and see those seats filled, it adds value to his ticket. Even though there's no real relationship there, he sees the amount of people who are there, and it confirms the fact that he made a wise choice to purchase his very high-priced ticket.
Only good things can come from a full building.
- Jeff Caplan of ESPNDallas.com: "Who needs centers? The Dallas Mavericks have played two games now without a true center and they've scored 247 points. Monday night saw Shawn Marion score a season-high 29 points to lead Dallas to its 12th consecutive victory. Talk about stepping up, Marion is averaging 19.0 points and eight rebounds in the last four games. The Mavs need one more win to tie the Cleveland Cavaliers for the longest win streak of the season. Think it can't get any easier than Monday in Minneapolis? The Mavs come home Wednesday to play the seven-win New Jersey Nets. So, it must get tougher after that, right? Hmm. On Saturday the New York Knicks are in town. The last time the Mavs saw the Knickerbockers, they drilled them by 50 at Madison Square Garden -- without Jason Kidd. "
- Brian Windhorst of The Plain Dealer: "LeBron James' ankle is fine. You should have seen him dash across the room to see the finish of the Knicks-Hawks game in the locker room after the game. ... In this game of analyzing and then spinning everything LeBron within the free agency prism -- 'What? He ordered a vodka tonic? Does that mean the Nets are still in the game?' -- I'm sure that will get all whipped into something. I probably shouldn't even be writing it because I'll be getting calls from New York radio stations for 'my take' tomorrow. But I did write about it because, well, LeBron is moving just fine on that ankle. And to pass along how it is always interesting to watch games with LeBron. Like when he's on the court, he usually sees things before they happen even on TV. He'll predict when players will go for backdoor lobs or scold players for not forcing the opponent into help or to his weak hand. You can really tell he watches a lot of film...on everybody. For that matter, he also reads a lot about the game. He's very up on the happenings in the league. In this case, he was enjoying the finish of a good game."
- Jonathan Abrams of The New York Times: "Hawks guard Jamal Crawford is preparing to finally shed the N.B.A.’s
scarlet letter. Crawford, an adept scorer who causes few locker-room problems, seems to be an unlikely person to hold the league’s longest current streak of playing in the most games without appearing in the playoffs. But he holds it nonetheless. His streak reached 659 games Monday night against the Knicks. It will come to a finish at the end of this season at 679 games when the Hawks get ready for the playoffs. They are comfortably in second place in the Southeast Division and a near lock for home-court advantage in the first round. 'I always said the thing that bothered me most about it was I actually hadn’t experienced the big games in front of the crowd like that,' Crawford said. 'I just think on that stage, I’m at my best.' Now he can finally find out if his assumption is true. He was averaging 17.4 points off the bench for Atlanta and is a front-runner to win the league’s Sixth Man Award. The satisfaction comes after starting his career with the post-Michael Jordan Chicago Bulls, then spending a little more than four seasons with the hapless Knicks." - Rick Bonnell of The Charlotte Observer: "Stakes make for drama. And for maybe the first time in their history, the Charlotte Bobcats have some emphatic stakes Tuesday night against the Miami Heat. If the Bobcats beat the Heat tonight, they would clinch a tiebreaker against Miami. That would amount to a polite, 'Oh, really?' if not for the fact the Bobcats are in actual playoff contention this season and the Heat and the Chicago Bulls are their best targets to leap-frog from their current ninth place in the Eastern Conference. 'It definitely adds to the stakes,' Bobcat Stephen Jackson said Monday. 'You have to approach this like a playoff game. It's a mandatory win. If we approach it like the Lakers game, we should be all right, but we've got to understand where we are in the standings and what this game means to us.' "
- Ben Bolch of the Los Angeles Times: "Kobe Bryant described the Lakers as 'upset' and 'a little edgy,' supporting his descriptors with a series of curt answers to reporters' questions. Asked if he was feeling better a day after stomach issues forced him to miss the team bus to Amway Arena in Orlando, Bryant said, 'I'm getting a stomach virus now with all these questions.' The Lakers all seemed a bit queasy after losing three consecutive games for the first time since Jan. 23-27, 2008. Coach Phil Jackson lamented his team's lack of execution, and forward Pau Gasol said the Lakers needed to improve their ball movement. Gasol had not previously experienced a losing streak this long since joining the Lakers in February 2008, but he said their recent defeats weren't as vexing as the defending NBA champions' inability to play to their potential. 'That's what's disappointing and frustrating,' Gasol said. 'That's why I want us to get ourselves going and playing well and being confident and having that swagger of the best team in the league, and lately we haven't been carrying that with us.' "
- Brian Kamenetzky of ESPNLosAngeles.com: "Ron Artest arrived at Lakers practice Monday afternoon with shorn-yet-still-colorful head. Lesson one, kids: Purple dye doesn't just wash right out. While I certainly appreciate Artest's follicular whimsy, I have to admit, as a bald man there are times I find his cavalier attitude towards his hair a little offensive. 'Look what I can do! Whatever, it's just hair. It'll grow back.' Not forever, Ron. Not forever."
- Frank Zicarelli of the Toronto Sun: "The team that takes to the court Tuesday night against the visiting Raptors is one that has been scrutinized more times than Bryant heaved shots during the Lakers’ three-game losing streak, all setbacks on the road in rather dramatic and odd fashion. Despite the recent tumult, the Lakers still are the team to beat in the West because of Bryant’s presence and his assassin-like personality. They still are the champs, basketball’s measuring stick and the team no one wants to meet in the playoffs, or at least avoid until the stakes at their highest. But the aura that usually surrounds the Lakers has been punctured. What no one knows is whether this air of fallibility is fleeting or whether the remnants of a three-game slide will linger into the spring. What is for certain is that the Lakers are not accustomed to losing games in succession."
- Gery Woelfel of The Journal Times: "Who would have thunk? The Las Vegas oddsmakers predicted the Bucks would win 26 games this season, and Sports Illustrated forecast the Bucks being the worst team in the Eastern Conference. Kudos to John Hammond. The Bucks general manager drafted Brandon Jennings after several other teams in need of a point guard passed on him; he lured Ersan Ilyasova from Europe; he signed veteran Jerry Stackhouse when virtually nobody else wanted to take him out of the unemployment line and he pulled off a heist by obtaining shooting guard John Salmons from the Chicago Bulls at the Feb. 18 trading deadline. If there's a more qualified candidate than Hammond for NBA Executive of the Year, I'd like to know who it is."
- Jim O'Donnell of the Chicago Sun-Times: "The Bulls, besieged once again by injuries, appear headed only for the spotty uncertainties of April. They're 4-5 since John Salmons departed and take a four-game losing streak into a United Center date tonight against the Utah Jazz. 'I wish no one down there any bad,' Salmons said. 'We all went through too much together last spring against Boston. I consider just about everyone on that team a good friend. I do want to finish ahead of them, though.' The Bucks -- once 18-25 -- have leapfrogged to the fifth-best record (32-29) in the Eastern Conference. That puts them up on the No. 6 Toronto Raptors via tiebreaker (32-29), the No. 7 Miami Heat (32-31) and the Bulls (31-31). The 6-6 Salmons has glided in. He has bumped Charlie Bell as a starter and further eased concerns about the absence of top gun Michael Redd, whose season ended Jan. 10 with a torn-up left knee. Despite playing his first seven games with only one full practice, Salmons is averaging 19.2 points, adding length and smarts to a backcourt starring rookie Brandon Jennings and doing nothing to diminish the growing confidence of his new team."
- Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel: "For most of the season, when it came to playoff seeding, the view regarding the Heat was, 'whatever.' The sense was it did not make much of a difference whether the Heat faces the Cavaliers, Magic, Celtics or Hawks in the first round. It would be one-and-done once again, and then everyone collectively would hold their breath until Dwyane Wade made his free-agent decision. And then came Saturday’s game against the Hawks, a third victory by the Heat in the four-game season series. The Heat has now won 15 of the last 17 regular-season meetings at AmericanAirlines Arena. No, there won’t be homecourt in a potential first-round series against the Hawks, but there will be three home games if the series goes the distance. Beyond that, the Heat held the Hawks to 39-percent shooting in the four-game season series. That’s what makes Tuesday’s game in Charlotte so crucial, as well as Friday’s home game against the Bulls and games later this month against the Bobcats, Bulls, Bucks and Raptors."
- Dan Bickley of The Arizona Republic: "For much of his rookie season, Robin Lopez was an object of scorn, the recipient of misdirected frustration. He was mocked for his funny-sounding voice, for his love of comic books. He was a first-round draft pick that wowed nobody and thus became the symbol of Steve Kerr's perceived incompetence. Now, Lopez is proof that the general manager most certainly has a clue, and that the Suns might have a future. 'Defensively, the difference in our team has been unbelievable,' coach Alvin Gentry said. Since being inserted into the starting lineup Jan. 18, the Suns are 16-8, and 14-4 in their past 18 games. Since the All-Star break, the Suns have held five of 12 opponents to fewer than 100 points. During that stretch, Lopez poured in 30 points against the Clippers and promptly messaged his brother, Brook, who plays for the Nets. 'Until I score 33, he still has the family record for most points in a NBA game,' Lopez said. With Lopez on the bench, the Suns were outrebounded in 25 of their first 41 games. Since the change, they have won or tied the rebounding battle in 19 of 24 games. Now, a soft-serve franchise suddenly is besting its opponents by an average of 4.4 rebounds per game. But this isn't about numbers. Simply put, Lopez has changed the personality of this basketball team."
- Mike Baldwin of The Oklahoman: "Get one of your friends. Stand still. Then let your friend get a five-step running start and plow into you. Remember, you can’t flinch. You can’t move. Sounds like a lot of fun, huh? Thunder forward Nick Collison leads the NBA in taking charging fouls. It’s not a play listed in box scores, but it’s a play valued by teammates and coaches. 'It looks like it doesn’t hurt,' said coach Scott Brooks. 'It looks like you can just get up and go. But it hurts. Even if a point guard comes at you full speed, knee-to-chest, it hurts. Tough guys come up and take them. And you don’t ever want to show your opponent you’re hurting.' ... Kevin Durant said he once injured his knee in high school, which made him hesitant for several weeks to jump in front of an on-charging opponent. His rookie season in Seattle, he once hit his head falling backward. Another time, he injured his elbow when he landed hard. 'It’s something that’s not easy to do,' Durant said. 'It’s all about being tough, and that’s what Nick is. He’s gifted. He has a nice body to take that pounding.' "
- Sam Amick of The Sacramento Bee: "In the weeks leading up to All-Star Weekend in Dallas in mid-February, the Kings grew concerned at the constant demand for Omri Casspi's time that has come with his historical place as Israel's first NBA player. The sometimes-harrowing hype reached a new high Feb. 9 at Madison Square Garden, with Casspi scoring 18 points and grabbing nine rebounds against New York in a win that came in front of thousands of Jewish supporters. His participation in the Rookie-Sophomore game in Dallas opened him up to a weekend full of All-Star events, with Casspi handling himself graciously as always but surely feeling the fatigue. Yet he continued to play well, averaging 15 points and shooting 48.6 percent in the three games after the break. The downturn began Feb. 21 in Phoenix; Casspi has averaged 6.5 points in his seven games since while shooting 38 percent (19 of 50) and 20 percent from three-point range (2 of 10). 'Maybe I practiced too hard in the beginning,' Casspi said. 'In the first three months, I didn't take a day off at all. I'd come to lift (weights) when we had days off. Maybe practices I should rest a little bit. … That's something to learn for the future. I didn't know how to practice for 82 games.' "
- Bill Bradley of The Sacramento Bee: "In two years, Tournament Week and the NCAA Tournament will be even better. You can thank the NBA for that. The NBA is talking lockout for the beginning of the 2011-12 season. The collective bargaining agreement with the National Basketball Players Association runs out before that season, and NBA players are already making contingencies for life without pro basketball. College players should be, too. That's because -- if they are smart -- fewer college players will be leaving school early for the NBA. Why would they jump to the pros if the likelihood is there will be no games to play? If more great players stay in school, then the quality of the college game will improve, at least for two seasons. Conversely, there will probably be a glut of talent in the 2012 NBA draft once the league settles its labor issues. Until then, expect the performance level in the 2011-12 college basketball season to be more like the game used to be."
Arnovitz: One of the questions I'm not sure we've answered is what has happened over the past 12 months that caused the attendance at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics conference to go from 400 to a thousand attendees plus a 400-person wait list.
Abbott: The real answer here is going to make me sound the nerd who picks a fight the jocks, which is a bad position to be in. But I think this might be case of the real truth being that people who understood the power of geekery were always right. It was always the right direction, and teams that took advantage early were on to something that is helping win games, and now everybody else is going to have to run to catch up. I'm not saying everything every stat geek has ever said is gold. But I am saying that smart analysis, even from laptops, over the long haul, matters in the way that a good pair of running shoes matters in winning marathons. It's not going to run the race for you, but at the same time, you can't come to the starting line in penny loafers. Anyway, getting to your question -- when something's really happening to help people win games in the NBA, word gets around. (Also, it's a legendary networking opportunity, so there are also just a lot of schmoozers.)
Arnovitz: Last year, the substance of the sessions and presentations was enlightening. We learned a lot, and the conference framed some really important issues in very smart ways. That was true again this year, but the event also felt bigger -- not just in attendance, but in import. It seemed to make a mark. Most NBA teams were represented. That's a profound endorsement.
Abbott: We should disclose we're aware, that to many of you, we sound like total dorks here.
Arnovitz: And maybe a little bit tribal. But I think this stuff has relevance beyond stat heads and NBA front offices. If I'm a fan, I want my team to be one of those 16 in attendance. That would demonstrate a commitment not only to smart thinking, but to winning.
Abbott: You put your finger on it. That might be the mark this conference left. It's now clear there's a lot of force behind what's happening here. It's powerful to see smart alpha dogs like Mark Cuban and Jonathan Kraft vying to more closely align themselves with this movement. It now seems like the teams who don't do this stuff will soon be exposed as backward. It's happening. Get on board.
Arnovitz: Getting back to the question of "why this year," advancement in technology grows exponentially. 2009-10 might be the season when that curve really started to veer upward. We're seeing that trend everywhere, not just in sports.
Abbott: Back up there when I was talking about running shoes -- anyone wearing penny loafers who sees a competitor humming along in their Nikes ... they're going to quickly get some new shoes, and they're never going to run in penny loafers again. When ideas spread like that, quickly and in one direction, things happen fast. The stat geek population curve is steep.
Arnovitz: There is a level of certitude, or at least confidence. Last year it feel like the general tone was, "Hey we're really on to something." This year, the collective spirit of the conference was, "Maybe we haven't won yet, but we're up 18 in the fourth quarter."
- Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel: "The question everyone wants addressed (other than the identity of Ron Artest's hair stylist) might have been delivered with a counter-punch,18 games from the playoffs. Are the Orlando Magic better than they were last season and can they win the NBA title this time? The Magic hit back when the defending champion Lakers unleashed their full fury and beat them 96-94 on Sunday at Amway Arena. Sure, you can get a temperature reading on the Magic by listing their latest, greatest victims: They've beaten the Boston Celtics (twice), Cleveland Cavaliers and the Lakers while going 18-5 in the second half of the season. But attaching a face to the Magic evaluation makes it even more meaningful, if not credible, especially when it's Lakers coach Phil Jackson's. 'I think they're as good, maybe better, a little better than they were last year,' Jackson said."
- Mike Bresnahan of the Los Angeles Times: "Kobe Bryant was late for Sunday's pregame activities, but Ron Artest arrived on time, with a new blond dye job and several inscriptions in his hair. He etched the word 'defense' in three languages -- Japanese, Hebrew and Hindi, he said. In plain English, however, his defense was poor Sunday against the Orlando Magic. His assignment for most of the game, Vince Carter, had 25 points, including 10 points on free throws in the first quarter. The Magic beat the Lakers, 96-94. Artest was rubbed out by high screens on some possessions but lacked the defensive flair he'd unveiled in recent weeks. One play pretty much said it all: He went for a steal in the third quarter and didn't get it, leaving Carter open for an easy three-pointer. 'He had a struggle tonight,' Lakers Coach Phil Jackson said. 'Couldn't make a shot and everything was a foul on Carter. Ron really didn't get a chance to play the defense he's touted to play.' "
- Dave McMenamin of ESPNLosAngeles.com: "The Lakers have lost three straight games for the first time in the 217 games they've played since Pau Gasol joined the team. What they discovered from this lull is a conundrum that's as hard to solve as any defensive overload or offensive scheme they will face the rest of the season: How should the team react when Kobe Bryant dominates the ball and the Lakers lose, knowing full well that the only reason they were even in the game at the end was because Bryant orchestrated a comeback by dominating the ball? Tricky, right?"
- Michael Lee of The Washington Post: "Andray Blatche was noticeably upset and appeared to hold back tears as
he explained his encounter with Kevin Garnett, which nearly got heated when Garnett approached Blatche and tried to wrestle the ball away from him. Blatche appeared to throw an elbow as Garnett continued to taunt him. Blatche later flung Garnett into a cameraman and sent him to the foul line for two free throws. Garnett smiled as he was helped off the ground. Reserve forward James Singleton said Garnett used his 'veteran senses' to needle Blatche and get under his skin. 'I see myself as defending myself as a player. I'm a man, just like they a man. If a man is talking to me this close to my face,' Blatche said, moving his hand toward his cheek. 'I'm going to say something back. He has to respect me just like I respect him. I just, 'Get up out of my face.' He was this close in my face -- I can feel his lips touching my cheek -- I wasn't bragging saying 'Ah we winning.' It was 'Back up.' ' " - Gary Washburn of The Boston Globe: "A few months ago, re-signing Ray Allen seemed questionable at best because he was struggling mightily. Not only was he missing 3-pointers, he was passing them up when open, a clear indication he had lost his confidence. He and the rest of the NBA knew his name was being mentioned in trade talks. President of basketball operations Danny Ainge was determining a market for Allen’s expiring contract, but never got a deal he felt comfortable with and passed. And despite his constant denials that the trade talk was not affecting him, Allen took a deep breath, refused to take it personally, and focused on helping the Celtics. His numbers are sparkling since the trade deadline passed. In 10 games, Allen is shooting nearly 57 percent from the field and 44 percent from the 3-point line. Confidence in Allen is soaring to the point where Celtics coach Doc Rivers called a play for him to shoot a 3-pointer inside two minutes remaining in last night’s 86-83 win over the Washington Wizards with the Celtics down by 2 points."
- Geoff Calkins of The Commercial-Appeal: "Mike Heisley is charming, accessible and wonderfully blunt. But he doesn't get it. He doesn't know how to build a successful NBA franchise in this town. ... If you had any lingering doubt about this, read Ron Tillery's riveting Q & A with the man in today's paper. It's Heisley at his best and his worst. He says he was right about Zach Randolph, which is true. He says Mike Conley 'is the type of point guard we need,' which is a stretch. But his most telling answer was to a question about the draft. Tillery asked if the Grizzlies have to draft better. The correct answer to this question is 'Yes.' Of course the Grizzlies have to draft better. Their No. 2 pick in the 2009 draft has been playing in Bismarck, N.D., having been beaten out at backup center by an undrafted Iranian. Their No. 4 pick in the 2007 draft would be an excellent backup point guard. How did Heisley answer the question? 'No, we don't have to do better,' he said. 'Nobody was asking me whether I was concerned about the draft when we were beating everybody's (butt) in December and January. What I'd like to talk about is people coming out and supporting this team. I'd like to see people paying $5 to see the games. I'd like to see people spend less than what they spend for a movie to come see one of the better up-and-coming teams in the NBA. I heard it for years that we aren't very good. Well, they can't say that now, and there's no big rush through the turnstile.' So a question about the draft turned into an answer about attendance. And the answer revealed Heisley really doesn't understand what's happened with his team. Memphis fans were never going to rush through the turnstiles because the Grizzlies started playing .500 basketball. A few months of surprising respectability were never going to fix everything that's gone wrong over the last six years."
- Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel: "The lesson from the past week and even past few days is clear: Fall in line or fade away. So even after being benched at the end of three consecutive games, Michael Beasley opted against an I-told-you-so approach after Saturday's breakthrough against the Atlanta Hawks. Instead, after scoring 14 of his 22 points in the fourth quarter, the second-year forward said he appreciated the approach coach Erik Spoelstra had taken leading to the victory that extended the Miami Heat's winning streak to three. 'The lineup coach decides to play is usually a good one,' Beasley said. 'I look at Coach Spoelstra like a guru. He usually knows what he's talking about, so I'm not really going to argue about my minutes I should be out there. I shouldn't. I'm just going to play the minutes I get and play them well.' Contrast that to the approach of point guard Rafer Alston, who, after being demoted from starter to third string, abruptly severed ties with the team before Friday's practice, failing then to appear at Saturday's game. 'He's away right now,' Spoelstra said, with the Heat holding its annual Family Fest charity event Sunday having yet to speak with Alston."
- K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune: "After 62 games last season, the Bulls owned a 28-34 record and had gone 5-4 since making a major move at the trade deadline with the acquisitions of John Salmons and Brad Miller. After 62 games this season, the Bulls are 31-31 and have gone 4-5 since making two major moves at the trade deadline to shed salary and acquire Hakim Warrick, Flip Murray, Acie Law, Joe Alexander and a future first-round pick. Similar, right? Wrong. This season has a doom-and-gloom feel to it given that the Bulls have lost four straight, including three at home, and consecutively face six more teams .500 or better in a murderous stretch. Even more daunting is all this comes at a time that Joakim Noah is sidelined indefinitely with plantar fasciitis in his left foot. The Bulls' emotional leader is essential to the style they need to play to be successful -- get a defensive stop, grab the rebound and run. In fact, last season's team went 13-7 over the final 20 games and featured an absolutely potent offense that averaged 107 points down the stretch. Without Noah, this season's team is unpredictable at best and porous defensively at worst, as Saturday's 122-116 loss to the Mavericks proved yet again."
- Vince Ellis of the Detroit Free Press: “ 'You should be ashamed of yourself, Scott!' Those are the words Rip Hamilton just yelled at official Scott Foster before he sat on the bench for the Pistons. As you can imagine, Foster yelled right back at Rip, telling him in no uncertain terms he better knock it off before he is watching the rest of the game against the Rockets back in the locker room. I'm not one to talk about officiating errors normally, but this scene highlights a growing sense of frustration among the Pistons about the lack of respect they are getting from the officials. I know, I know. This is a team that is 21-41 and counting so the last thing you want to hear is that they are crying about the officiating. But Hamilton had a point. He raced down speedy Rockets point guard Aaron Brooks midway through the third quarter, but all he appeared to do was yell at Brooks as he went in for the lay-up. Brooks stumbled and Foster called the foul. Replays indicated Hamilton had a gripe."
- Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle: "If there can be one weakness to improve, one area to repair, just one part of the game to address above all others with the 20 games left in the season, the Rockets should not have to think twice. ... Game on the line, defenses tightening, every possession crucial -- how do the Rockets respond? More often than not, they put their fate in the hands of their shot-making, hoping they can put in just enough tough or long shots to get the win. That works on occasion, but the teams that rarely ever lose games like Sunday's, the playoff teams, don't rely on somehow getting just enough shots to fall. They execute. When they miss, they execute again. When they get smacked by bad calls, big momentum swings, bad breaks, they execute because nothing can substitute for that."
- Frank Zicarelli of the Toronto Sun: "A sense of uneasiness has crept inside the Raptors, a feeling of impending doom if the team’s attention to detail continues to be ignored. For now, there’s no danger of missing the playoffs, but the danger lies in the Raptors’ inability to seize the moment. Staring at a four-game Western swing that tips off Tuesday in Los Angeles against the reigning champion Lakers, the last thing the Raptors needed was to get wiped out on their home floor. The Raptors weren’t just beaten, they were exposed. It wasn’t so much their deficiencies on defence, their refusal to attack the basket and get to the line, their uncharacteristically poor decision-making or sloppy ball-handling. What was alarming was the team’s mind-set, an approach to the way they play that must be addressed and corrected. And the quicker, the better."
- Jody Genessy of the Deseret News: "Home is nice and all. Sweet even. But when it comes to reading, watching TV and movies, hanging out with the guys, playing card games and, aaaahhh, snoozing, there's no place like the road for the Utah Jazz. The Jazz will have plenty of time to do all of that in the final stretch of the season, considering they'll occupy the visitors' locker room for 12 of their final 20 games. The most popular pastime on the road? Don't yawn, but it might be getting extra shuteye on comfy hotel beds. 'Sleep,' Jazz forward Andrei Kirilenko quickly said while cracking a grin when asked about his favorite road hobby. 'That's the only time of the year when you can sleep. Nobody around, (no) distraction. You just get to the room, get your sleep, so you kind of get your energy back.' Kirilenko isn't the only one who takes advantage of the slumber opportunities.'I sleep a lot,' Jazz shooting guard Kyle Korver admitted."
- Jason Jones of The Sacramento Bee: "The campaign for Tyreke Evans to win Rookie of the Year will pick up at Arco Arena on Wednesday when the Kings host the Toronto Raptors. It will be 'Rally for RekeROY' night. Fans at Sunday's game had the opportunity to record testimonials about Evans that could be played on the JumboTron on Wednesday. Evans was Western Conference Rookie of the Month the first two months of the season. The award went to Golden State guard Stephen Curry (January) and New Orleans guard Darren Collison (February) the last two months."
Photo: John Marcus
Jonathan Kraft, Mark Cuban, Daryl Morey, Bill Polian, Bill Simmons, Michael Lewis and conference co-founder Jessica Gelman.
I heard a ton of raves and very few complaints about the 2010 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. (Although, worth noting ... roll through Twitter coverage of the event, and you'll find scattered gripes about how there was only soda, and not bottled water, at lunch. What's amazing is that in 2010 the tiniest of inconveniences for a very few people is now a quasi-media event.)
But what here mattered? Probably a lot. There was more going on than one person could see. Many people have suggested that next year it might make sense to make this event two days long.
Certainly in the days to come there will be a lot of great coverage from all over the place. An early list of key moments, as told by TrueHoop Network bloggers:
- Bias in officiating This academic paper was presented late in the day. It didn't get a ton of attention, but oh, it will. Basically, the authors are making a strong data-based case that some things fans say happen with referees (superstar treatment, swallowing the whistle late in the game) really do happen. NBA executives have addressed similar research in the past, and have strenuously objected, saying their own unpublished internal research shows otherwise. More to come on this topic, for sure.
- The value of a blocked shot John Huizinga and Sandy Weil have a gift for doing fresh basketball analysis that gets everybody talking. Last year it was the hot hand. This year it's the fact that some blocked shots are not so valuable, while others are tremendous. Worth digging in.
- How NBA teams use analytics Remember when Andre Miller scored 51 in Dallas? Mark Cuban and Kevin Pritchard remember what Cuban says was the real statistical anomaly of that night: Juwan Howard's game-winner.
- Performance enhancements This is a very tough issue, and this panel had the chance to be extremely vanilla and safe, but people like Steve Kerr were impressively frank -- for instance Kerr says that late in his career, he took Vioxx which he found to be performance enhancing.
- Will coaches listen to stat heads? Avery Johnson was frank about the role Wayne Winston played in his time at the Mavericks, and it's fascinating.
- What geeks don't get The signature panel of the event was hilarious and insightful. It's a "Moneyball" event, so it's great to have the book's author on the stage, with Bill Simmons, Mark Cuban, Daryl Morey, Bill Polian and Jonathan Kraft.
- The price of anarchy This academic paper digs into the effect whereby teams are best when their superstars don't do everything themselves. How much is just right?
- The future of management and ownership It's really about globalization, revenues, getting into the business and such, but you don't want to miss the story about Red Auerbach and the cheerleaders.
Basketball analytics: the users
Jared Wade was there and relayed his impressions of the panel at Hardwood Paroxysm. One especially fun portion of the discussion surfaced when Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban and Portland Trail Blazers general manager Kevin Pritchard gabbed about a recent game between Dallas and Portland that came down the wire, when the expectations of the data diverted from the actual outcome on the floor:
Much to the chagrin of Cuban, Pritchard recounted a late-game play between his Blazers and Cuban’s Mavs in an earlier match up this year that showed how these things can effect the games on a day-to-day basis.
With Portland needing a big hoop with seconds left, Juwan Howard hit a 15-footer that sealed the win. Knowing Howard’s shooting percentages and tendencies from different locations on the floor, Cuban couldn’t believe that Juwan hit that shot. That was a shot he never makes, and it was a shot Cuban would love to see Howard take all game long.
Pritchard told Cuban that the look on his face after it went in was priceless. “That’s the only 15-footer he’s hit this year,” said Cuban.
“He’s hit two,” said Pritchard.
And whether or not that number is an exact figure that Pritchard can pull off the top of his head or just a quant-centric joke, I think it’s safe to say that Dorkapalooza isn’t just for dorks anymore.
