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How could the Los Angeles Clippers possibly walk away from a negotiation that would’ve yielded them Kevin Garnett and Doc Rivers for a relatively unproven young center, a couple of first-round draft picks and the relatively small burden of taking on one or two mid-level contracts?

That’s the question gnawing at some Clipper fans and many Clipper skeptics on Tuesday, but however ineffectual the organization appears on the surface for folding up their tent, the Clippers made a sound decision.

Two key points:

What’s the hurry?
The Celtics’ situation is in flux and they’ve signaled to the world that they’re ready to pursue the wise course of rebuilding. If they buy out Paul Pierce’s contract on or before June 30, where does that leave Garnett and Rivers? Neither is wild about the idea of being part of the reconstruction process without their comrade, and both would prefer they join forces with a team driving for a title, a team like the Los Angeles Clippers.

In other words, if the Clippers want to acquire Kevin Garnett for DeAndre Jordan, they can do so after July 1. The only complication there is the report that Garnett isn’t interested in playing for any coach other than Rivers, a primary reason this whole drama started.

That’s why if I’m the Clippers, I hold off on hiring a coach until after the Pierce situation is resolved. Apart from the Clippers, the only remaining coaching vacancies are Memphis, Philadelphia and Denver. There’s virtually no overlap between the Clippers’ short list and that of 76ers president of basketball operations and general manager Sam Hinkie. Memphis will likely hire current assistant Dave Joerger. At worst, the Clippers lose one of their top three choices (most likely Lionel Hollins or Brian Shaw) to Denver while they wait. In exchange, they maintain the possibility that Rivers could join them after July 1. Boston will have no more impetus to pay Rivers $7 million to coach a bubble team than they do now. Ditto for Garnett’s $18 million guaranteed, assuming KG would return to a Pierce-less Celtics team.

There’s some worry that the Clippers’ inability to strike a deal with Boston might prompt Chris Paul to look elsewhere, but the concern has been overblown. If the Celtics are truly moving into rebuilding mode, time is on the Clippers’ side. If the Celtics decide to fire up the wagon for another run, then so be it.

Was the deal worth it?
Few veterans in the league bring Garnett’s gravitas, pedigree and presence and it’s easy to be charmed by the prospect of Garnett’s taking Blake Griffin under his wing and teaching him the dark arts of defending the pick-and-roll and becoming a championship power forward.

But Garnett is 37 and isn’t good for more than 26-28 minutes per game going forward. As transformative as he is as a minister of culture, Garnett’s past performance isn’t a reliable indicator of what kind of production he’d give the Clippers next season -- and the season after if the team decided to pick up his $12 million option for 2014-15.

So far as the leadership, Garnett is regarded as one of the league’s best teammates and mentors, but the Clippers went down that path last offseason when they brought back Chauncey Billups, signed Grant Hill and loaded up on good-guy vets to add to the collection they already had. Veteran leadership wasn’t the problem when the Clippers lost four straight to Memphis in the first round.

If anything, the Clippers need to get younger and establish a sustainable core around Paul and Griffin. Truth be told, Jordan probably isn’t the best frontcourt counterpart to Griffin since both are most dangerous in the basket area. And although Garnett would offer the midrange stretch that would best complement Griffin and is still a very steady defender, is 2,000 minutes of Garnett the best the Clippers can do for Jordan, whose athleticism and talent have many admirers around the league?

We don’t know the answer to this question, but a team like the Clippers that desperately needs a couple of wings who can defend and shoot from distance has an obligation to listen to offers -- and they’re out there for Jordan, both in the form of talent and picks.

Rivers is one of the five best coaches in the game and clearly has the respect of NBA players. But there’s a reason teams don’t trade assets for coaches. Doc Rivers can’t guard Russell Westbrook, Tony Parker, Ty Lawson, Mike Conley, James Harden and Stephen Curry. A few front office execs who were asked about the idea of handing over a pair of first-round picks for the privilege of paying a coach $7 million per season found the proposition absurd. While there was almost unanimous respect for Rivers’ acumen, the transaction was seen more as a salary dump than anything else.

The notion that a pair of first-round draft picks is a paltry sum to pay for Garnett and Rivers is short-sighted. With the new collective bargaining agreement in place, first-round picks have never been more valuable. They are the mother’s milk of the NBA trade market. With the exception of a few superstar max contacts, rookie-scale contracts represent the best values in the game. All across the league, there are young executives who know how to turn post-lottery picks into Chandler Parsons, Serge Ibaka and Eric Bledsoe, among others.

Teams value these picks and will offer the Clippers quality, on-court talent for them. A first-round pick is the kind of asset that could get a team to swallow the final year of Caron Butler’s contract, and could accompany Eric Bledsoe to get a top-line starter in exchange.

The Celtics also wanted the Clippers to take on additional payroll in the form of Jason Terry and/or Courtney Lee (this in addition to the $1.5 million that would’ve been added to the Clippers' salary number in a Jordan-for-Garnett swap). With only Griffin, Jordan, Butler, Jamal Crawford and Bledsoe locked in for next season, and Paul due a maximum salary, the Clippers need to preserve all their available exceptions. But adding Terry and/or Lee would’ve brought the Clippers precariously close to a place where they’d lose one or more of those slots, which are going to be vital in filling out their depleted roster.

It’s entirely possible the Clippers blew it big-time by turning down an opportunity to sign a Hall-of-Famer in the twilight of his career and one of the most respected coaches in the game. Acquiring Garnett and Rivers would’ve made Paul ecstatic and endeared the team to the local media that have been pounding them in recent weeks.

But in forfeiting one option, the Clippers open themselves up to many others, including several that might actually address the team’s needs beyond 2014. In the meantime, Garnett and Rivers are still in Boston awaiting word on the direction of their team. If and when the Celtics decide to break up their current core, Garnett and/or Rivers will be looking for life rafts -- and the Clippers still have one.

Why hasn't Chris Andersen played since Game 3?

That's what I have been wondering. He's a big dude with -- it would seem -- the ability to hinder those Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili drives that have been causing so much trouble for the Heat. LeBron James and Dwyane Wade are good at getting the ball into the paint, where Andersen is good at turning touches into buckets.

Andersen is shooting -- wait for it -- 82 percent in the playoffs and 78 percent on 7-of-9 shots in these Finals.

There are two theories explaining Andersen's benching:

• Tim Duncan abused him in the post.
• The Heat have been good playing small, for instance with Mike Miller taking Birdman's minutes.

So, thanks to the media version of NBA.com/stats, I dialed up all of Duncan's shots in the paint in this series, and assessed:

• Duncan has attempted a grand total of one shot against Andersen. It came in the second quarter of Game 1, when the big Spur backed Birdman deep into the paint, turned and scored easily with a little up-and-under move.
• As it happened, ESPN's Jeff Van Gundy said, "Chris Andersen brings great energy, but Tim Duncan can do work against him in the low post." An idea was born. Only, as it happens, Duncan has yet to do that work. Just for fun, I went back and looked at several recent years of these two facing each other, which hasn't happened much. Duncan has been his typical self against Andersen -- some years shooting better than average with Andersen in the game, some years worse.
• Andersen is best off the ball, including against Duncan. As a counterpoint to the idea that Andersen loses that matchup, consider this: In Game 1, at one point, Duncan found himself with excellent post position guarded by LeBron. Andersen threatened to help. Whether it was the threat of James, Andersen, or both, Duncan -- one of the best short-range shooters in NBA history -- missed a short jumper off the top of the backboard.
• The Heat lost Game 1 at home, and change was inevitable. Birdman has played 36 total minutes in the series and none since Game 3.

The Heat are pretty good against the Spurs with Birdman in: plus-9 over 36 minutes. They are also good with Miller in: plus-34 over 101 minutes. They are also good with both in: Perhaps Miami's best run of the series came in Game 2, when for the key stretch, it was LeBron, Miller and Andersen with Ray Allen and Mario Chalmers. That lineup rattled off 22 points in seven minutes, while giving up a mere five.

There has been that one-bucket hint, but certainly no trend, that the Heat are abused while Andersen is on the court.

Put it all together, and I don't know that we can say with any certainty that Birdman must play. But without a doubt, he should be considered. He is a well-rested, highly effective and energetic big man with good hands, and the Spurs have shown no signs of "solving" him.

At full speed, the Heat may well be unstoppable. But even in these NBA Finals, you can see the Heat occasionally deciding not to bother challenging Danny Green, for instance. Ethan Sherwood Strauss has interesting ideas about intensity.

Historical storylines abound going into Tuesday's Game 6. Can the San Antonio Spurs continue their road closeout dominance? Will LeBron James have another big scoring game to stave off elimination?

Here's a look at the numbers in support of each team.

Why the Spurs Will Win
The Spurs enter Game 6 leading the series 3-2. Teams up 3-2 in the Finals have gone on to win the series 83.3 percent of the time (35-7) all-time. Since the 2-3-2 format was instituted in 1985, teams up 3-2 have gone on to win the NBA Finals a virtually identical 82.4 percent of the time (14-3).

Even with the final two games of the series in Miami, the Spurs have recent history on their side.

The Spurs are an NBA-best 14-2 in potential series clinching games on the road in the Tim Duncan/Tony Parker/Manu Ginobili era since 2002-03. Those 14 wins are six more than any other team over that span.

Gregg Popovich is 19-5 when his team had a chance to clinch a playoff series on the road. Only one head coach in NBA history has a higher career winning percentage than Popovich in those games (min: 2 games): Tom Heinsohn (8-1, .889).

The Spurs closed out each of their previous three series on the road this postseason, taking down the Lakers, Warriors and Grizzlies. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, only two teams in NBA history have won four series clinching games on the road in a single postseason: the 1989 Pistons and 1999 Spurs.

San Antonio is just one win away from its fifth NBA Title and would remain one of just two teams in NBA history with multiple NBA titles without a Finals loss (Bulls, 6-0). It would also be their first NBA Finals series win without home-court advantage.

Why the Heat Will Win
Not surprisingly, it all starts with LeBron James.

He’s averaging 31.5 points per game in his career when facing playoff elimination. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, that’s the highest for any player in NBA history (min. five games). In fact, only Michael Jordan (31.3) and Wilt Chamberlain (31.1) are also above the 30 PPG threshold.



The Heat have been here before. In 2012, they climbed back from a 3-2 deficit to beat the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. However, Miami couldn’t pull it off in the 2011 NBA Finals, falling to the Mavericks 4-2.

Only three teams under the current format have won the NBA Finals after trailing 3-2 with the remaining two games at home. Most recently, the Lakers came back to beat the Celtics in 2010.
On the most basic level, it’s the Heat’s turn on Tuesday. Neither team has won back-to-back games in this series, just the third time that’s happened through five games of the NBA Finals since 1985.

Miami has been dominant following a loss this postseason, winning all six games by an average of 20.7 points. The Heat haven’t lost back-to-back games since January 8-10, going 12-0 following a loss since then.

• Jeff McDonald of the San Antonio Express-News: During the postseason, Miami has won each of its six games following a loss by an average of 20.7 points. The Heat’s victories in this schizophrenic series have come by 19 and 16. History conflicts on where things go from here. Bad news for Miami: Since 1985, only three home teams have swept Games 6 and 7 in a Finals. Good news for Miami, if it can win Tuesday: No team in that span has lost a Game 7 at home. “This team, they’ve been here before many times,” Miami guard Dwyane Wade said, referring to the Spurs. “They understand winning that last game is one of the hardest things you’re going to do. And we understand it as well.” If the Spurs back in the Dark Ages didn’t fully understand how hard it is to win a championship, they do now. The past six years have felt like 60. Beginning Tuesday, the Spurs have two chances to make the long wait worth it. “We take nothing for granted,” Parker said. “We appreciate every moment. And we’ll see what happens.”
• Dave Hyde of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel: Already, the room is preparing to tilt one way or the other on him. After Sunday's loss, a question was asked as the Heat return home from Texas down in the series three games to two, just as they were in the 2010 Finals loss to Dallas, what he has learned. "We're going to see if we're a better team than our first year together,'' he said. The Heat lost that series as LeBron famously became lost in a suffocating trap of fame and pressure in that Game 6. All this time later - two years, one championship, one 27-game win streak – it's like no one's moved at all. We're back there again. Same moment. Same stakes. The truth is LeBron, like the Heat, has graduated from that time in a manner that any rational framing would note. But nothing will be rational now. It will be emotional, raw and savage, built only on a Game 6 result in the way that makes this sports reality show so intoxicating to watch. Win, and Heat fans will feel the sports definition of pandemonium course through them. Lose, and it's heartbreak.
• Berry Tramel of The Oklahoman: We wouldn't know about rearranged lineups here in OKC. Scotty Brooks doesn't change his lineup even under threat of bayonet. Since Kendrick Perkins arrived from Boston in February 2011, the only deviation from the Durant-Westbrook-Ibaka-Perk-Sefolosha starting five has come courtesy of a doctor's note. Even when the Thunder clearly needed to adjust its chess pieces — Miami in the 2012 Finals; Houston in the 2013 first round — Foreman Scotty stayed with his starting five. … You saw in Game 4 last week, Popovich stayed with his lineup in response to Miller starting. Then 47 seconds into the game, Pop replaced Tiago Splitter with Gary Neal. To Brooks' credit, he's coming around. Against Houston, Kevin McHale ended all pretense of a traditional starting five after Game 1. Brooks eventually embraced small ball. The early part of the Houston series, Brooks was going deep into the first and third quarters before adjusting. But he went small less than three minutes into Game 4, less than two minutes into the second half of Game 5 and didn't even start Perkins in Game 6's second half. … We should see more lineup and rotation adjustments from Brooks as the Thunder ages. We'll probably see more from the Heat and the Spurs this very week. Some of it might even keep working.
• Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times: Bulls general manager Gar Forman has thrown the number 86 out there several times this season, which is the winning percentage when Rose, Carlos Boozer, Joakim Noah and Luol Deng are playing together since the four came together before the 2010-11 season, but Larry O’Brien Trophies aren’t held up in December or April. They are earned in June, and the Bulls aren’t on the same level with the two teams competing on this stage. Not without at least two more serious threats from the outside. Call it the Danny Green revelation. The Bulls finished the regular-season 21st in three-point shooting, hitting just over 35 percent from beyond the arc. The top five teams in that category? Golden State, Miami, Oklahoma City, the Spurs and the Knicks. All of them are playoff teams, with two still alive. As much as Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau force-feeds his players on defense first, second and third, they still lack a perimeter game that can stretch opposing defenses. There is hope of grabbing an outside scorer in the draft in nine days, but for a team that already has its toes dipped in the luxury tax water, don’t expect much help through free agency.
• Vincent Bonsignore of the Los Angeles Daily News: There is little doubt Gregg Popovich is the best coach in the NBA right now, his Spurs closing in on their fifth NBA championship and his ability to develop and hone under-the-radar players like Danny Green into significant assets around San Antonio's core superstars a skill few coaches possess. But the past five years prove Rivers is a close second, the Celtics an annual contender even while age and injuries compromised their closing ability on younger teams like Miami and Chicago. For the Clippers to land a coach of that stature is not only a coup, but it nearly guarantees Paul will remain in Los Angeles on a long-term commitment later this summer. The move allows Rivers to avoid the inevitable rebuilding project about to go down in Boston while providing him with an intriguing roster filled with a near-perfect blend of youth, toughness, experience and savvy. Garnett and Pierce, if both come along for the ride, might be risky business in terms of age and potential injury. But their wear and tear is mitigated by the presence of the youthful Paul and Griffin shouldering most of the heavy lifting. At the very least, it shows the Clippers are willing to think boldly and take on money in pursuit of their first championship. And if they walk away with Rivers as their coach, all the better.
• Eddie Sefko of The Dallas Morning News: The day after the Mavericks’ season ended, you may remember reading in this spot about the merits of Milwaukee guard Monta Ellis. Dirk Nowitzki and Vince Carter both voiced their support if it came to the point where Ellis would be available in free agency. That point may be here on July 1. An ESPN report says that Ellis has elected to opt-out of the final year of his contract with the Bucks. If that’s the case, that will make him an unrestricted free agent on July 1. … Ellis is different than those two players, but at 28 when next season begins, his prime is now. The Mavericks, who can’t comment on any free agents until July 1, would be foolish not to look long and hard at Ellis as a viable game plan in free agency, regardless of what Dwight Howard does. … This isn’t to say Chris Paul or even Jose Calderon might not be legitimate options for the Mavericks. But the stars appear to be lining up pretty well for them to make a run at Ellis.
• Charles F. Gardner of the Journal Sentinel: Monta Ellis had a decision to make. And on Monday the Milwaukee Bucks shooting guard officially opted out of the final year of his contract, making him an unrestricted free agent July 1. It wasn't a surprising choice, particularly after Ellis had rejected a two-year, $25 million extension offer made by the Bucks last fall. The offer would have required Ellis to opt in to the final year of his existing contract and would have been worth nearly $36 million over three seasons. … Ellis' decision, beating a Thursday deadline, provides some clarity for the Bucks as they approach next week's NBA draft. Milwaukee has the 15th and 43rd picks in the June 27 draft. The Bucks carefully have evaluated the backcourt talent in the draft, including point guards Shane Larkin and Dennis Schroeder and shooting guards Glen Rice Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Ricky Ledo, among others. … One published report indicated the Atlanta Hawks, Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Lakers could be interested in Ellis.
• Benjamin Hochman of The Denver Post: Ten Junes ago, the Nuggets transformed their franchise by obtaining a young talent who attended Baltimore's Towson Catholic High School. That's the plan again. With the goal of becoming an elite team, Denver hired Tim Connelly on Monday to be the team's executive vice president of basketball operations — or, as the fans know it, general manager — replacing Masai Ujiri, who left to run the Toronto Raptors. Connelly, 36, previously the assistant GM of the New Orleans Pelicans, went to Towson Catholic, the school that Carmelo Anthony attended until Melo's senior year. "I'm honored," Connelly said by phone. "I think all of us aspire to ultimately be in this position with good people and a good organization and put your imprint on things. "I'm lucky enough that Josh has taken a chance on me." Josh is Josh Kroenke, the team president, and now Kroenke and Connelly will make a decision on replacing the fired coach George Karl. Indiana Pacers assistant coach Brian Shaw is scheduled to interview with Denver on Tuesday, while former Memphis Grizzlies coach Lionel Hollins will interview Wednesday, an NBA source said.
• Jason Jones of The Sacramento Bee: Pete D'Alessandro said the Kings showed, especially over the second half of the 2012-13 season, they are talented - offensively. But it will take time speaking with coach Michael Malone and the players to see how they fit with the new Kings regime. "I have a lot of agents to call," D'Alessandro said. "I have to sit down with these players and Michael, and I will do that together. But I feel the future is really bright." Ranadive said something "clicked" when he met D'Alessandro. Ranadive questioned all the candidates about the Kings' roster and their plan for the team. After being impressed by D'Alessandro, Ranadive called Chris Mullin, who was the candidate's boss at Golden State. Mullin, a Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Famer as a player with Golden State and Indiana who became an executive with the Warriors, endorsed D'Alessandro. Mullin has been offered a job as a consultant with the Kings.
• Doug Smith of the Toronto Star: Well, if Tim Leiweke wanted to make significant changes to get away from the Raptors past, he’s picked the right guy to fire. In what I think is a terribly short-sighted move that will rankle as many people as anything he does, Leiweke has told Alvin Williams that his services are no longer required. Yep, the chief executive officer of Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment — on the job for less than a month — has jettisoned one of the great guys ever associated with the franchise and a man who wanted nothing more than to spend his entire career with the organization in some way, shape or form. Williams had spent last season scouting for the team, based out of Philadelphia, but he was far, far more than just an employee picking up a cheque. He loved the organization and the city, he was a link to some of the best times the team has ever had, he is a great guy who’d show up every now and then and sooth some antsy players, offer a unique perspective and be a valued confidant to many. Fired. Not by the general manager who never spoke to him, but by a CEO who seems hellbent on getting his fingers in every decision at some level. It sucks.
• Jonathan Jones of The Charlotte Observer: After an NBA playoffs run that catapulted him (Stephen Curry) into the national spotlight, the former Charlotte Christian and Davidson standout has found a new level of stardom. It’s one that comes with more requests, more autographs, more “no, thank yous” and more importance on finding a balance for a busy offseason schedule. “You feel like you have a lot of time, but when you start committing to events and you start committing to different opportunities, it really flies by,” Curry said. “You really have to be conscious of how much you exert yourself. Even though it might seem like going to a golf tournament or NBA TV, it seems small but it is a big commitment. And you don’t want to wear yourself out but you want to have fun, and it’s the balance you have to figure out.” …Stephen Curry’s focus remains on the court. He’d rather be playing in the NBA Finals than tweeting about it. He’s probably signed more basketballs than he’s dribbled during the past month. He’ll continue to navigate his offseason schedule and soon he’ll be back on the court preparing for next season. “He’s had two summers in a row where he’s had surgeries, so with him actually able to work on his game this year he should be a better player,” Dell Curry said. “But he’s still focused and he knows he’s got to rehab and get stronger. The way he played and the amount of minutes he played your body is going to wear down. He understands he’s very popular right now and a lot of people want his time, but he’s got to concentrate and still focus on his job.”
• Tim Bontemps of the New York Post: As the Nets continue to look for candidates to fill out Jason Kidd’s coaching staff, one potential candidate is Roy Rogers. According to a league source, the Nets are interested in Rogers, who was an assistant coach with the Nets under Lawrence Frank from 2008-10, before following him to the Celtics when Frank went to Boston as an assistant in 2010-11, and then following him to Detroit with the Pistons for the past two seasons. Rogers, a first-round pick of the Grizzlies in 1996, had been expected to join new coach Jeff Hornacek’s staff in Phoenix, but the team withdrew from contract talks with Rogers yesterday. Kidd has made it clear that he’d love to have Frank, his former coach with the Nets, join his staff as his lead assistant.
• Rick Bonnell of The Charlotte Observer: The Charlotte Bobcats will start their pre-draft workouts Wednesday with two sessions of auditions. But those players who won’t work out – most of them can’t because of health issues – might be the more intriguing factors in how the Bobcats use the No. 4 overall pick June 27. Nevada-Las Vegas forward Anthony Bennett, Kentucky center Nerlens Noel and Maryland center Alex Len all have injuries that preclude them from pre-draft auditions. Bennett had surgery on his left shoulder to repair a torn rotator cuff. Noel is recovering from knee surgery to repair a torn ACL. Len, who’ll visit the Bobcats on Tuesday, had surgery during April to stabilize a partial stress fracture in his left ankle. While all three are expected to make a full recovery, each probably would miss summer league as a result of those surgeries. While that’s certainly not a deal-breaker for the Bobcats selecting one, it would be an added complication for Steve Clifford, the Bobcats’ third coach in as many seasons.
• Candace Buckner of The Columbian:As the NBA Draft draws closer, the group workouts labor on. However, the participants and those paid to watch them are pleading "uncle!" On Monday morning, the Portland Trail Blazers hosted their ninth workout, but called it a day earlier than some players expected. "They saw our skill and what we could bring to the table, but at the same time, they realized it's kind of late in the month and everybody's on their ninth and 10th workout," said James Southerland, a four-year forward from Syracuse. "Everyone's bodies are basically deteriorating at this point. We just got to make sure we stay in good shape and bring what we can." … The Blazers announced that the 10th pre-draft workout will be held on Wednesday morning — same place, same time, the routine rolls on.
• Dan Steinberg of The Washington Post: Based on reader feedback, most D.C. sports fans are opposed to a Redskins name change, and most D.C. sports fans would support a Wizards name change. Many of that latter group would prefer a return to the “Bullets” name, to match the franchise’s return to Bullets colors and iconography. And they were encouraged when Abe Pollin’s widow Irene said she wouldn’t mind. … Ted Leonsis has never suggested that might happen, but he also has never insisted that it won’t. … This week, though, came something far more definitive — maybe a game-ending field goal — via my pal John Ourand at SportsBusiness Daily: A top Wizards exec said the franchise would “probably not” be renamed the Bullets. “There are certain instances in the last few years with certain players that I think are going to prevent that,” said Monumental Sports & Entertainment Senior VP & CMO Joe Dupriest. Dupriest went on to tell Ourand: “I don’t see us changing the name to the Bullets,” which is the strongest thing I can remember a team executive saying on this topic. And if Gilbert Arenas’s legacy in this town is really to make that a permanent impossibility, well, it won’t help his legacy, anyhow.
• Paul Coro of The Arizona Republic: Word is that the Suns are planning on taking training camp back to Tucson, where they held it on the University of Arizona campus in 2005, ’07 and ’08. Camp moved to San Diego or La Jolla, Calif., in ensuing years except for a quick camp at Grand Canyon University after the 2011 lockout. Flagstaff was ideal altitude training for the Suns from 1986 to 2004, especially for uptempo systems, but there are ties to Tucson, where owner Robert Sarver grew up and attended UA. Tucson’s Westin La Paloma, where the Suns stayed for past camps there, is now owned by the Southwest Value Partners that Sarver founded.

You're going to hear a lot about what it's going to take to win this championship, which will be deliciously -- for NBA fans -- decided on the court in the days to come.

You know the storylines: LeBron James needs to be aggressive, Dwyane Wade must not take possessions off, Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan must play like they're five years younger. And Danny Green simply needs to keep it up.

It's all guesswork, though, and like most guesswork, most of it will probably be wrong.

For one thing, typical analysis ignores a ton of things we know really matter. Not fun stuff like Green's shooting or LeBron's psyche, but more process stuff like how unified five defenders are, the quality of screens and angles of dribble drives, who wins the off-ball Duncan versus Chris Bosh wrestle-off.

But the real reason analysis usually misses in predicting a game's key factors is that the game simply does not give a hoot. There are hundreds of factors, indeed thousands of tiny moments, that make up any one win. And the game simply doesn't care if those moments fit trends or not. You can win any old way, and a lot of them have nothing to do with coaching adjustments, "seizing the moment" or anything else.

Think of it as if you're saving up for a vacation. You might put a little something aside paycheck after paycheck. Maybe you'll get a big tax return, or a bonus, and dedicate the windfall to the project. Who knows, maybe you're a hell of a poker player. The goal, though, is the vacation. The bill is the same no matter how you save. And the people at the resort are beyond agnostic about how you built up the funds. All they care about is that, out of the thousand ways to save, you saved enough.

Basketball is similar, in that there are a thousand ways to win and it has no special prizes for people who get there a special way. Already in these Finals, we've seen that with two great teams playing each other almost to a standstill, one good quarter of suffocating defense can get you a win. Shooting way above your average from distance can do it, as can the resurgence of an aging Argentinean. Starting Mike Miller can do wonders, or not.

There is nothing that has ever won a basketball game except for turning possessions into points. Both teams have about the same number of possessions -- they alternate all game -- and one team will turn those into more points. Halftime speeches, energy drinks, blue-chip college pedigrees ... nothing matters unless it makes one team better at turning possessions into points than the other team.

We like to tell ourselves that the things that matter most are things we, as humans, can control. We could afford this vacation because of our diligence. The Spurs won because Gregg Popovich started Manu. As if coaching decisions were the only thing keeping Game 5 from being a carbon copy of Game 4.

But let's be honest, these two teams could play 100 times with no "adjustments" and produce 100 wildly different games, because life's just that varied, and there are degrees of chance and opportunity in every atom. People can afford vacations because they save, but also by being lucky enough not to have a horrible storm streak through town, ripping everything, including vacation funds, to shreds. Others holiday on the strength of an inheritance or other found money.

A lot of basketball wins, including, potentially, the decisive win of these Finals, come because of crazy stuff nobody could have foreseen. People fall over, referees miss things, balls go out of bounds off the legs of well-meaning world champions, great shooters have off nights or electric ones. None of it's from the game plan, but all of it decides games all the time.

We don't hear about it much, though, because nobody values an analyst whose conclusion is "anything can happen."

Meanwhile, that's not to say there's no such thing as strategy. Of course there is. Popovich and the Spurs really do have a brilliant scheme to find open shots, and open shots really do go in more often on average -- just like saving money from every paycheck is the most reliable way to pay for your trip. Did you notice LeBron saying he hasn't been sleeping? Sleep researchers would say that's absolutely the kind of thing that could diminish his mental acuity. I'm sure Erik Spoelstra would be better off giving minutes to Mike Miller or Udonis Haslem or Chris Andersen (but I don't know which one -- that's why he gets the big bucks).

But the strategy part of it, the stuff that humans can consciously decide to do, in advance -- that's a smaller part of what wins than almost anyone involved would like to admit. All these titans of hoops are on some level powerless, floating on a sea of random chance. We're arguing about the comparative quality of their rowboats and how fast they can row.

That's not how we might like to see it, but I like this: It's just one more way NBA basketball -- this messy, beautiful, surprising, delightful, heartbreaking game -- is just like real life.

• Dan McCarney of the San Antonio Express-News: It has been a Finals marked by wild swings of fortunes, so why should Game 5 have been any different? For the third straight contest, the team blown out by double-digits bounced back to return the favor in kind. The Spurs, destroyed on their home court by 16 in Game 4, turned Miami back with a 19-1 run spanning the third and fourth quarter and held on down the stretch behind a resurgent performance from Manu Ginobili and Danny Green’s historic shooting. The former broke out of a series-long slump with his best performance of the postseason: A season-high 24 points and 10 assists, the first time he reached those thresholds in the same game since 2008, and only the second time in his career. The latter made six more 3-pointers to shatter Ray Allen’s Finals record. They led a starting lineup that combined for 107 points, pushing the Spurs to the brink of their fifth championship with a 3-2 lead. “We’re just trying to do all we can to will (a championship) to happen,” Tim Duncan said. “We hope we can respond better next game than we have after wins. I think every one of us wants this badly, from the top on down. We just need…to understand the kind of energy and aggression they’re going to come with next game.” For the Heat, their backs are against the wall yet again during the LeBron James era — a position in which they’ve thrived over the past two seasons, but utterly crumbled against Dallas in the 2011 Finals. “I like our chances,” Dwyane Wade said, “just like they like their chances.”
• Greg Cote of The Miami Herald: This night was about how Tuesday is going to feel. The way NBA Finals Game 5 ended here Sunday was about how South Florida is going to awaken the morning of the next game, and what will be on Heat fans’ minds as they attempt to concentrate at work and then traipse into the home arena that night. It might have felt so good, right? Might have been a party. Could have been. A victory for a 3-2 series lead and Miami would have been poised and ready to celebrate a second consecutive championship that night. Hialeah would have the pots and pans out. Anybody near Biscayne Boulevard might have anticipated getting zero sleep for the incessant bleat of car horns. Tuesday would have felt like a coronation in waiting. Instead? Piñatas replaced by Pepto. Stomachs, clenched. Hearts, palpitating. Fingers, crossed. The Heat had the chance to make the rest of this seem so easy — well, easier — but Sunday’s 114-104 Game 5 loss took care of that desired path and lined the Road to Repeat with treachery. Now, to be champions again, Miami must do what it has failed to do for the past 12 postseason games: Win two in a row. Now, Heat fans are left to pray the next game is survived as much as won and that Miami — team and city — gets to the scariest thing in all of sports: A Game 7. Do you believe, South Florida? How much do you believe?
• Michael Lee of The Washington Post: In the four years since he made his last trip to the NBA Finals, Rashard Lewis had to deal with a stunning trade from Orlando to Washington, accept that his knees and age would prohibit him from being a regular NBA starter again, get traded from one lottery team to another and finally lose out on $9 million when he got bought out for the final year of a $118 million contract. So, while there was excitement when he signed with the Miami Heat last July, Lewis wouldn’t necessarily say that he was relieved when he got dumped by two franchises – the Wizards and then New Orleans – in less two weeks last June. “I don’t think it’s ever a relief to be traded, or bought out,” Lewis said with a booming laugh. “But the relief was when Pat Riley called to recruit me to come down and play for them. I think more than anything my goal was to be on a team that was trying to compete for a championship. Obviously, Miami had just won it.” … Lewis has an option worth $1.4 million but plans on returning next season to Miami, where a first championship is within his grasp. “You get that window of opportunity, you’ve got to take advantage of it,” Lewis said. “I chose to play for the Miami Heat and you know, we here. We in the Finals, but the job is not done yet.”
• Steve Bulpett of the Boston Herald: Are the Clippers looking at bigger prey? Will Doc Rivers be comfortable continuing as the Celtic coach if no escape route can be found? Has Paul Pierce hired a realtor for his Boston-area digs? The first issue that president of basketball operations Danny Ainge will likely have to tackle is finding whether things with the Clippers can be revived. According to league sources, it appears a fairly solid bet that the Celts are not going to get exactly what they wanted out of this — a couple of draft picks for Rivers; Eric Bledsoe and DeAndre Jordan for Kevin Garnett. … If the Celtics cannot get what they believe is proper compensation for him, they would have no problem welcoming Rivers back for his 10th season here. In fact, that’s been the club’s hope and expectation all along. But one has to wonder how strange it might be and what effect it would have on his communication with the players if Rivers is back after expressing at the very least a willingness to coach elsewhere. The Celtics — and their followers — can only hope to soon begin getting the kind of answers that will render moot most if not all the hypotheticals.
• Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel: What could prevent the Magic from taking more baby steps ... is merely the formation of the next NBA superpower. That's all. If you believe the Internet intel, the Los Angeles Clippers and the Magic have been discussing a trade that would send promising young point guard Eric Bledsoe and veteran forward Caron Butler to Orlando for shooting guard Arron Afflalo. Big win for the Magic in a season of very few wins. They would acquire a talented replacement for agingJameer Nelson and shed the three years remaining on Afflalo's contract. With Butler in the last season of his deal, that is a very salary-cap friendly transaction all around for the Magic. Moving Afflalo likely influences Orlando to pick a shooting guard — Ben McLemore or Victor Oladipo — in the draft. The possibility of acquiring Bledsoe might remove any notion of the Magic taking Trey Burke. … There's speculation that the Clippers would offer the Lakers a sign-and-trade for Howard that could include Griffin and — you guessed it, Magic fans — Bledsoe. But the Clippers can't afford to move Bledsoe until they re-sign Paul, no sure thing with Dwight and CP3 exchanging text messages. It's as if The Dwightmare never ends in Orlando.
• Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times: One coach who won’t be participating in the offseason NBA coaching carousel is the Bulls’ Tom Thibodeau. Early Sunday afternoon, there were whispers that if the Boston Celtics trade coach Doc Rivers in a package to the Los Angeles Clippers, Thibodeau would be on the radar as a possible replacement. But an NBA source indicated Sunday evening that the Celtics would not pursue Thibodeau because they know the Bulls would not grant permission to speak to the former Celtics associate head coach. “He’s loved in Boston, but he’s loved a little more by Chicago,’’ the source said. The Bulls just gave him a nice raise when he signed a four-year contract extension that will pay him $17.5 over the next four seasons. Still, it will be interesting to watch when Thibodeau’s deal gets closer to running out. He was born and raised in Connecticut and has strong ties in New England. As this offseason has shown the NBA coaching world, anything is possible.
• Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle: With roughly two weeks before the start of the NBA’s free-agency season, the poker player who owns the Rockets hopes to go all in. “I have enough money, but I don’t have enough championships,” Rockets owner Leslie Alexander said. “If you’re not in it to win championships, you shouldn’t be in it.” Alexander said he could not comment about any detail of the Rockets’ free-agency plans, including the planned presentation to players. But he said he hopes to have the sort of team to dramatically increase the team’s payroll, including paying a luxury tax. Alexander said that watching the NBA Finals offered a reminder of how badly he wants to return his team to contender’s status. The Rockets won consecutive championships in Alexander’s first seasons as team owner but have won just one playoff round since 1997. Since the departures of Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, they have been restructured with the acquisition of All-Star James Harden and salary-cap room to pursue a max contract free agent next month. “I would be thrilled to pay a tax if we have a championship-caliber team,” Alexander said. “Obviously, you have to get the players to pay the taxes. You have to get great players; otherwise, you’re just spinning your wheels. When you get the great players, you don’t want to lose them. You have to pay whatever it takes to keep them. That’s when it becomes really fun to be an owner and to be a fan of the Rockets.”
• Eddie Sefko of The Dallas Morning News: Fans here have been blessed in the superstar department with the Mavericks’ Dirk Nowitzki. Now, the pressure rises for Nowitzki in the role-model department. He’s preparing to start a new chapter of life, one that most superstars before him have also been through -- fatherhood. Michael Jordan once said that being a role model for his kids was a lot harder and more important than being a role model for millions of fans. He’s right, of course. It’s a good bet that Nowitzki feels the same way. If you’ve watched his life since he arrived with the Mavericks as a stranger in a strange land, you’ve seen him grow more comfortable in the limelight. He’s become a superstar any fan would be proud to have on their team. And the uncharted territory he’ll enter into before the summer is over -- he’s been private about his wife Jessica’s actual due date -- will be more important than anything he’s done so far. “Test is a good word,” Nowitzki said this week about having a Dirklet.
• Drew Sharp of the Detroit Free Press: Look at the rest of the league, Joe Dumars insists. It’s not simply the Pistons blowing out coaches in quick succession. Kidd is the Nets’ third coach in the last nine months. And Brooklyn won more than 50 games last season. “It’s such an entirely different animal from what it was just 10 years ago,” Dumars added. “You have to adapt and adjust to the situation while still holding onto what you deep down believe is the right path to take. But at the end of the day, it should always be about winning.” There are explanations for the last five years but there are no excuses. Contrary to popular opinion, Dumars has never gotten a “free pass” from media criticism and accountability. However high his personal likeability remains in this town, there’s no hiding from the fact that the Pistons fell fast and hard following a six-year run of consecutive Eastern Conference championship appearances. Dumars is the last constant from that period that’s still around, making him the biggest target. He knows that time’s running out, especially in a league that’s in more of a hurry now than ever before.
• Mark Kiszla of The Denver Post: Pete D'Alessandro is the latest member of the team's brain trust to walk out the Pepsi Center door, agreeing Saturday to become general manager of the Sacramento Kings. NBA executive of the year Masai Ujiri fled to Canada, and coach George Karl is leaving such a trail of bitter tears in exit interviews that perhaps his next media stop should be with Jerry Springer. While Karl has done his best to portray Kroenke as an impulsive son of a billionaire whose recent basketball decisions have been stupid, the large hole in the team's organizational chart is the result of something else. The 33-year-old Kroenke has been too nice of a guy. Oh, not too nice for firing Karl. But too nice with Ujiri, whose departure was far more critical at a time when swingman Andre Iguodala is headed to free agency.
• Jason Jones of The Sacramento Bee: The Kings have offered Hall of Fame player and former Golden State Warriors executive Chris Mullin a role as a consultant, The Bee learned. Sources spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the private nature of the offer. Mullin was the top basketball executive for the Warriors from 2004-09. New Kings general manager Pete D'Alessandro worked for the Warriors from 2004-08, the final two years as assistant general manager. The Kings will introduce D'Alessandro at a press conference Monday afternoon at Sleep Train Arena. If the Kings do bring in Mullin, it would fuel speculation about the Kings' future pursuit of free agent guard Monta Ellis.
• Mike Vaccaro of the New York Post: Pro sports is a ruthless business, and it can be an unfair and unfeeling one, too. We see that every spring when NBA jobs open up — and in the case of this spring, good jobs, jobs that aren’t necessarily dead-end jobs, jobs where the right man will find enough talent to win right away — and Patrick Ewing goes another year without being given a chance to coach. Ewing’s son and namesake, frustrated at seeing Jason Kidd walk right from a player’s uniform to a head coach’s suit, took to Twitter this week to express his anger. … Would Ewing be a great coach? It’s the same answer we have to give for Kidd: It’s impossible to know. And it’s the same question you ask about any coach. Did anyone in 1982 really believe the Lakers had hired themselves a Hall of Famer when they elevated Pat Riley to replace Paul Westhead? Was there universal acclaim in 1989 when the Bulls fired Doug Collins and replaced him with his oddball hippie assistant Phil Jackson? We know now those were smart hires because they worked out. But the point is, they were given a chance. So were the likes of Kurt Rambis and Marc Iavaroni, to name two — playing contemporaries of Ewing, fellow big men, both given the chance to fail on their own watch and their own merit.
• Bud Shaw of The Plain Dealer: Assuming the medical reports on Nerlens Noel don't set off alarms, the Thin Man would give Mike Brown his defensive centerpiece for the next decade. The Cavaliers are thought to be split on Noel, which isn't unusual. In draft years offering far more certainty, opinions are often divided. We're not privy to the extent of concern over Noel's knee. Maybe the Cavs are already scared off by it. If not, Noel makes too much sense to pass up. Yes, Gilbert made a grand pronouncement on the night of the lottery that the bow ties would be retired, that the Cavs wouldn't be returning anything soon. Noel wouldn't be ready to play until December and would've missed a training camp. Raw offensively, he'd have serious catching up to do. But Gilbert made a grander pronouncement once before as I remember, one that flew in the face of the organizational rebuild. And that was easily forgiven and forgotten. … I'd give my head coach a dynamic shotblocker who has a huge upside, who can defend his turf and cover for those who -- despite Brown's best intentions -- don't turn into Gary "The Glove" Payton.
• Jerry Zgoda of the Star Tribune: The Timberwolves once had a guy named Kevin Garnett who despised playing afternoon games, and they ended up doing all right with him. On Sunday, they swapped times for their predraft workouts and sprung a morning session on a group that included UCLA forward Shabazz Muhammad, who never considered himself a morning guy until now. “Usually I don’t do that good in early mornings,” he said after working out in a six-player group that included Kentucky’s Archie Goodwinand former Gopher Rodney Williams. “I actually think this is one of my best workouts, so I prefer morning now.” Sunday’s workout was No./4 in Muhammad’s scheduled seven-city tour before the June 27 draft. He arrived at Target Center looking to show new Wolves basketball boss Flip Saunders that he has the scoring skills and temperament worthy of the ninth overall pick. … Saunders called his Friday visit to watch Indiana shooting guard Victor Oladipo work out near Washington, D.C., “more confirmation” about a player he’d have to trade up from the ninth pick into at least the top four or five to select. Saunders said he won’t travel to do the same for Kansas shooting guard Ben McLemore, but didn’t rule out leaving town to visit other players in the next week.
• Charles F. Gardner of The Journal Times: Ricky Ledo did not play a minute of college basketball yet could be a first-round pick in the NBA draft on June 27. That shows how impressive the 6-foot-6 shooting guard from Providence has been in workouts with National Basketball Association teams. Ledo's workout with the Milwaukee Bucks on Saturday was his 13th with an NBA team as he continued his campaign to show he belongs at the next level. And he said he will work out with at least six more teams before the draft. The NCAA ruled Ledo was a partial academic qualifier and thus ineligible to play as a freshman with the Friars. But rather than pouting, he practiced with his teammates and began to draw the interest of pro scouts. Ledo and possible top-10 pick Kentavious Caldwell-Pope went head-to-head during the Bucks workout and showed why they are considered two of the top shooters in the draft. "Ricky Ledo is a very skilled basketball player," Bucks director of scouting Billy McKinney said. "He shoots the ball extremely well, but also his ability to create shots off the dribble is something that is going to work in his favor in the NBA. Everybody is trying to get a quick glimpse of him."
• Dave Dulberg of ArizonaSports.com: Of all the questions posed over the last few weeks to draft prospects coming through US Airways Center, few have been more prevalent than the one focusing on the Phoenix Suns' end-of-workout sprints. General manager Ryan McDonough, head coach Jeff Hornacek and the rest of the Suns' staff have built up quite a reputation of late regarding their three-minute conditioning test, so much so, that when New Mexico standout Tony Snell visited the team's practice facility on June 9, he mentioned to reporters that he mentally prepared for the drill after hearing rumors from other players in the Class of 2013. While the obvious point of the run is to evaluate the prospects' stamina after a grueling practice, McDonough noted that there's also a mental element to the exercise. "We only have a limited window to evaluate these guys," McDonough said Saturday. "We actually started it in Boston and it's one of the best ways you can think of to push a guy in a short amount of time. It's a conditioning test physically, but it's also to see how the guys respond mentally; to see how tough they are and fight through some of the fatigue. I enjoy it, I know they hate it. I enjoy seeing how these guys are willing to fight through some adversity."

Gregg Popovich pulls the strings like a master, the Heat struggle to score, Danny Green sets a record and the series heads to Miami where the Heat face a must-win Game 6. TrueHoop TV at the Finals, with Doris Burke and J.A. Adande.

It turns out that all Manu Ginobili needed to get his game going was a chance to start.

Ginobili’s 24 points and plenty of 3-pointers from Danny Green were the keys to supporting another big game from Tony Parker on the offensive end, and a different look for LeBron James was huge on the defensive end and pivotal to the Spurs taking a 3-2 advantage in this series.

Let’s break down the statistical highlights.

Difference Maker: Ginobili’s great game
The Elias Sports Bureau noted that Ginobili became the first player to start an NBA Finals game after not starting a game all season since Marcus Camby for the 1999 Knicks.

Ginobili made Gregg Popovich look very smart. His 24 points nearly matched the 30 points he had in the first four games of the series.

Ginobili got 50 touches of the basketball in this game and drove the ball to the basket a dozen times, both numbers far exceeding what he’d done previously in this series.

The Spurs outscored the Heat 45-33 on drives in Game 5, including 14 points when Ginobili kept the ball on his drives, and nine points on drives during the Spurs 19-1 run.

The Heat shot a series-low 39 percent on drives, including 4-of-12 from Dwyane Wade and LeBron James (who were a combined 11-of-15 for 26 points in Game 4).

Green makes it look easy
Danny Green matched Ginobili’s 24 points and made six more 3-pointers.

That gave him 25 3-pointers for the series, breaking Ray Allen’s record for most 3-pointers made in an NBA Finals. He made only 28 3-pointers in the previous three rounds of the playoffs combined.

Green was equally good whether the shot was open (3-for-5) or contested (3-for-5) in this game. He's 18-for-24 on open 3-pointers in the series, 7-for-14 when contested.

Boris Diaw: Defensive Stopper
The other big adjustment the Spurs made was to throw one more look his way-- putting Boris Diaw on him for an extended period of time.

James was 1-for-8 shooting against Diaw in Game 5, and 7-of-14 against all other defenders.

James’ first four shot attempts against Diaw were all at least 19 feet from the basket, and when he changed course and posted up, he was 0-for-3 on those attempts.

The Spurs did a good job at thwarting the Heat both from inside and outside. They contested eight of Miami's 12 shot attempts from beyond 10 feet in the first quarter. The Heat missed all eight of those shots.

Looking ahead …
The winner of Game 5 of the Finals when a series is tied, 2-2, has won seven of 10 possible titles under the 2-3-2 format.

The Heat will try to become the fourth team within that format (which dates to 1985) to win Games 6 and 7 at home in the Finals after trailing, 3-2. The other three are the 1988 Lakers, 1994 Rockets and 2010 Lakers.

The last team to defeat the defending NBA champ in the Finals was the 2005 Spurs who beat the Detroit Pistons.

The Heat have not lost consecutive games since January 8-10. Losing on Tuesday would end their streak and their season.

The Spurs are 14-2 in potential series-clinching games played on the road since the start of the 2002-03 postseason. The rest of the NBA is 61-75 in that span.

San Antonio's basketball team is all business. But the city is way more interesting than that. Writer Shea Serrano grew up in San Antonio, and shows TrueHoop TV's Henry Abbott and Jade Hoye life away from the Riverwalk.

When word began to circulate Saturday that the Clippers have weighed offering Blake Griffin and Eric Bledsoe to their Staples Center co-tenants for Dwight Howard in a potential sign-and-trade swap after July 1, that naturally made folks wonder where the Lakers stand in their quest to re-sign Howard when he becomes an unrestricted free agent.

Here's the latest:

• The Lakers have had several discussions with Howard's representatives over the past few weeks and remain confident that they will ultimately keep him with the franchise, even as he's made it clear he will entertain other suitors.

• Yet the Lakers also, according to sources, have not completely ruled out the idea of a sign-and-trade if they come to find next month that Howard is determined to leave. Sources say they are indeed leaning against sign-and-trade scenarios because they'd rather bank the resultant cap space from Howard's departure for the summer of 2014. But sources say they've adopted a keep-all-options-open approach. So they'll at least listen to just about anything.

• One source with knowledge of the Lakers' thinking said Saturday that any suggestion they could not philosophically allow themselves to make a major trade with the Clippers was "overblown." If the Clippers do indeed decide to formally offer Griffin and Bledsoe in a sign-and-trade package for Howard, indications are that it's a proposal the Lakers will certainly not dismiss outright.

• The threat of the James Harden-led Rockets signing Howard away from L.A. is very real to the Lakers, sources said, which means the Lakers will eventually be getting a sign-and-trade pitch from Houston as well. The Rockets will have the cap space to sign Howard outright after the expected shedding of Thomas Robinson's contract, but sources say that the Rockets will certainly attempt to convince the Lakers to take in return Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin in a sign-and-trade deal for Howard, thus theoretically keeping alive the possibility that Houston could preserve its cap space to pursue Chris Paul and possibly pair Howard with Paul.

• Asik is a quality defensive anchor at roughly half Howard's price. And Lin had the greatest success of his career under Lakers coach Mike D'Antoni. But sources maintain that the Lakers' main priority this offseason -- besides re-signing Howard -- is getting their financial house in order. Which is why the overriding expectation persists that L.A. will rebuff sign-and-trade proposals to simply bank the cap space for the summer of 2014 if Howard bolts.

• Should Howard decide to leave the Lakers, sources said, several options have been discussed internally in Lakerland. Among them: The Lakers could simply let him walk, go into the season with Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Steve Nash as their centerpieces -- as they had planned in July 2012 before the trade for Howard materialized -- and focus on slicing into their luxury-tax bill.

If you ask someone to explain what was so great about Michael Jordan, you're likely to get "competitor," "winner," "killer instinct," or some other psychologically-based adjective that does little to convey the tangible skills he demonstrated on the court. While there is still some appreciation for the grace of his actual play, the Jordan competitiveness narrative has come to obscure memories of his full-speed inside-out dribble, and footwork that would stub a ballerina's toes. His post game, his passing, his strength -- all of it is subsumed into a broader story about a man's will. It's like remembering Mozart's works by declaring "no one loved music more," or explaining all of Ben Franklin's breadth of contributions with "he just thought harder than everyone."

Basketball punditry probably reached that Jordan moment with the San Antonio Spurs long ago. Whatever they do, however they do it, is largely explained by either "smart" or "veteran," and sometimes "fundamental." And just like with the odes to Michael Jordan's winning desire, the story isn't exactly false. The Spurs are mostly powered by smart veterans, after all. But in extolling general, psychological traits like this, we can oversimplify the story while sapping the wonder out of how greatness happens.

For instance, two rounds ago, when the Spurs went on an 18-2 run to force overtime and eventually take a Game 1 from the Warriors, the response was oddly unfazed. Of course the savvy vets would get one over on the young pups. It all fit snugly into a panic-versus-experience narrative. This messaging totally ignored how strange and, well, fun San Antonio was in that fourth quarter.

The flurry of points came from a squad that was more unconventional than fundamental. Four different San Antonio players scored during the sequence. Basketball tradition -- which the Spurs eschew -- favors a star dominating the ball down the stretch. While Tony Parker got the comeback started, the two final "clutch" 3s were hoisted by two young role players: Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green. The closing lineup was a super-small unit of three guards plus a Leonard-Boris Diaw frontcourt, with Tim Duncan watching from the bench. A lineup of five perimeter players? No Timmy? Young role players taking the biggest shots? There was an oddball, resourceful genius to the Spurs that night, and it will mostly be remembered as hare versus tortoise. How boring.

When you step away from "Savvy vets, at it again," you might notice that exciting, unexpected things are happening in Spurs Country. Tim Duncan is playing perhaps the best overall basketball of anyone we've seen at age 37. Tony Parker, in what would have seemed an improbable turn years ago, is growing into a Nash-like distributor role. Manu Ginobili is fighting his own body on every possession, channeling creativity through a disintegrating vessel. After a decade together, these guys are in the Finals pulling off the seemingly impossible, fighting Father Time to a draw at the present moment. How does Duncan maintain forever? How does Parker get even better?

The young guys are forging their own incredible paths. Danny Green played for the Erie BayHawks before finding success in SA. His basketball history isn't wholly dissimilar from Jeremy Lin's, superficially. Kawhi Leonard couldn't shoot in college. Now he's deadly from the corner. Instead of remarking on how flabbergastingly cool these success stories are, it's mostly chalked up to, "They're the Spurs." Of course San Antonio would know Green was a diamond in the rough. Of course they'd teach Kawhi how to shoot. Of course. It's not like either player was widely expected to thrive in this way. Now that they are, the outcome is retroactively considered predictable.

The repeated psychological trope of "Savvy Spurs, at it again" makes the difficult triumphs seem preordained, which doesn't allow us to even be impressed by the impressive. Ironically, the broad reverence for Gregg Popovich and company gets in the way of our Spurs appreciation in the specific. So much of this Finals run is surprising. So much of it is thrilling. And so much of it won't be remembered that way because we already have a story to remember it by. The Spurs are at it again.

Following their 109-93 home loss to the Heat on Thursday, the Spurs enter the pivotal Game 5 of the NBA Finals looking for answers. One of their concerns is the lack of production they’ve received from guard Manu Ginobili.

Ginobili has struggled throughout the postseason, averaging only 10.6 points a game, his lowest output in a single postseason since his rookie season in 2002-03 (9.4 PPG).

What makes matters worse, his production has taken a further dip when the Spurs can least afford it.

In the first four games of the Finals against the Heat, Ginobili is averaging only 7.5 points, including matching his 2013 postseason low of five points on 1-for-5 shooting from the field in Game 4’s loss.

Ginobili has played in 29 postseason series, but it's this one that ranks as his lowest for scoring average. Let's look at a few stats related to how this has played out.

Shooting struggles
After shooting only 42.5 percent from the field in the regular season, which ranked as his second worst in a single season in his career (41.8 percent in 2003-04), Ginobili’s stroke from the field has suffered an even further decline in the postseason. The former NBA Sixth Man of the Year is shooting 37.7 percent from the field and 71 percent from the free throw line, both career postseason lows.

Factoring in all his shots, Ginobili’s true shooting percentage this postseason is 50.5 percent, well below his career postseason average of 57.9 percent. (True shooting percentage measures a player’s shooting efficiency taking into account 2-point field goals, 3-point field goals and free throws.)

His true percentage of 44.9 in the NBA Finals against the Heat is his third lowest in a single postseason series in his career.

Spurs faring better with Ginobili on the bench
Perhaps one of the adjustments Spurs coach Gregg Popovich could consider is decreasing Ginobili’s minutes even further, despite his 24.3 minutes per game in the Finals being down from the previous two rounds.

Popovich has already used Ginobili less this series, as the two-time NBA All-Star has recorded a usage percentage just under 20 percent in the Finals. His usage rate has declined in each series this postseason. (Usage percentage is the percentage of team plays used by a player when he is on the floor.)

The Spurs have been ineffective with Ginobili on the floor against the Heat. With Ginobili on the court, San Antonio has been outscored by Miami by 36 points, compared to outscoring the Heat by 41 points with Ginobili on the bench. Ginobili’s plus/minus of -36 is the worst by a player on either team in this year’s Finals.

San Antonio has most notably seen a decline in its offensive production with Ginobili on the court, as you can see in the chart on the right.

Ginobili not effective in pick-and-roll
Throughout his career, Ginobili has been one of San Antonio’s best ball handlers attacking from the perimeter.

During the 2012-13 regular season, Ginobili was used as a pick-and-roll ball handler more frequently than any other type of play. He was solid in that role, averaging 0.82 points per play.

In the Finals, Ginobili has run 11 pick-and-rolls ending in a score, miss or turnover and has turned the ball over as often (four) as he has scored (with one basket and four free throws).

Did You Know?
The Spurs haven't lost consecutive games in which the Big Three of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Ginobili all played since Dec. 12-13.

Fifteen years ago today, Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen led the Chicago Bulls to their third straight NBA Championship and sixth title in an eight-year span.

Jordan's game-winning shot over Bryon Russell signaled the end of the Bulls dynasty.

Fifteen years later, another dynamic duo -- LeBron James and Dwyane Wade -- is potentially on the verge of a second straight NBA Championship while competing in its third straight NBA Finals.

Which is the better duo: Jordan/Pippen or James/Wade? Let's compare their three-year playoff runs.

Jordan and Pippen were the better scoring duo but James and Wade have scored more efficiently than the Bulls duo did from 1996-98. During that run, Jordan and Pippen shot just 44 percent overall and 29 percent on 3-pointers, while James and Wade have shot 48 percent overall and 31 percent on 3-pointers over the last three postseasons.

The Heat duo has also trumped the Bulls duo from 1996-98 in rebounds, assists and blocks per game.

However, the 1991-93 Jordan-Pippen combo has outdone James and Wade in virtually every category. They totaled more points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks with a better field goal percentage and 3-point percentage than the Heat duo.

Which duo is more clutch?

The biggest difference between the duos is their performance on the biggest stage -- the NBA Finals -- in clutch time -- the last five minutes with the score within five points.

In the 1998 NBA Finals, the Bulls scored 60 points in clutch time. In the last three NBA Finals, the Heat have scored a combined 63 points in clutch time.

Jordan alone scored 30 points in clutch time in the 1998 NBA Finals, the most by any player in an NBA Finals series since 1997. Jordan didn't commit a single turnover in clutch time in that series.

Jordan and Pippen combined to score 38 points in clutch time in the 1998 NBA Finals, the same amount of points James and Wade have scored in clutch time combined in the last three NBA Finals series.

The Bulls scored 0.98 points per play in clutch time in the 1998 NBA Finals, compared to the 0.78 points per play in clutch time for the Heat over the last three NBA Finals.

James is shooting 4-for-15 from the field (27%), including 1-for-9 on 3-pointers (11%), in clutch time over the last three NBA Finals series.

If James, Wade and the Heat are going to close out the Spurs, there's a good chance it will come down to clutch time. If it does, the Spurs will be prepared. In their five NBA Finals series, the Spurs have outscored their opponents by 40 points (124-84) in clutch time. They've done so by scoring a point per play and shooting 48 percent on 3-point attempts.