ESPN NBA

Will Austin Rivers be a bust?

I’ve been asked that question a lot over the past few days.

I’ve pored over game tape, talked to several NBA scouts and GMs and sifted through the various analytics available before coming to a conclusion: Given his rise on draft boards -- in some cases as high as No. 6 overall -- he’s being overrated.

And I’ve said as much in various places recently.

In my look at the 10 biggest questions in the 2012 NBA draft, I asked whether Rivers was more likely to become the next Kobe Bryant or Jerryd Bayless. I picked Bayless.

During ESPN’s "First Take" draft special, I took issue with Skip Bayless' declaring that Rivers should be the No. 2 pick.

And in a 7,900-word draft debate on Grantland with Bill Simmons, we had the following lively exchange on the difference between Weber State’s Damian Lillard and Rivers:

FORD: Lillard is a willing passer. Rivers isn't and will never be. Lillard made dramatic improvements from year to year. I thought Rivers was the exact player in college that he was in high school. Lillard is a team player. He was the second most efficient player in college basketball DESPITE being the only decent player on his entire roster; teams game planned to stop him and him alone every night. I just don't see Rivers ever being anywhere near as unselfish or efficient. I think Rivers will be shocked at the athleticism and length at his position. He'll try to do the same things at which he excelled in high school, spend a lot of time on the bench, get into it with his coach and teammates, get traded in a year or two to a desperate team, put up huge numbers for a cellar-dweller for a year or two, make some money, and eventually, teams will realize he can't be the alpha dog on a winning team.

SIMMONS: Other than that, you're a huge Austin Rivers fan.

FORD: I honestly think Rivers is the one guy I wouldn't touch in the lottery. Too toxic for team chemistry, doesn't have the same physical tools to make it worth it.

Put all of that together and it sounds like I’m piling on Rivers.

I’m not.

But the perception is there. Rivers’ former head coach at Duke, Mike Krzyzewski, even called me up concerned that I or someone else was questioning Rivers’ character.

I’m not. I’m questioning how his mental approach to the game, combined with his skills and physical tools, translate at the next level.

To be clear, I’m sure Rivers is a nice young man and I don’t have concerns about his character. In fact, Coach K believes that Rivers’ ultracompetitive personality is what will help him at the next level.

“He is an alpha dog. I think he will succeed in the NBA because of that,” Krzyzewski said. “He believes he’s going to be great. I’d rather have a guy like that than a guy who doesn’t believe in himself.”

He also acknowledged that Rivers, like every young prospect, still has a lot of work to do.

“He needs to be a better rebounder and a defender on and off the ball,” Krzyzewski said.

“Some players, they learn one punch. When you take that punch away, they get knocked out. He needs to use that aggressive mentality to work on new things about his game.

“When Austin came to Duke, I told him that every player is like a house: The more skills you learn, the more windows you have on your house. When he came to Duke, he had one really big window. He was an amazing scorer. The goal was to add more windows to his game. He’s in that process right now.

“I hope he gets a demanding coach at the next level who pushes him to keep adding to his game. That’s how he’ll become great. If he reverts back to just doing the thing he does well, his chances lessen that he’s a good player in the NBA.”

He also noted that despite rumors to the contrary, he liked working with Rivers.

“He was very coachable and he’s a very good young man,” Krzyzewski said. “I like him. He was never a problem. He fit in well. He likes the game. He was a good kid to coach.”

Coach K said that any chemistry issues with the team this past season, which ended with the No. 2-seeded Blue Devils being knocked out in the first round of the NCAA tournament, probably had more to do with its lack of seniors. He said that as players get older, they get more secure in who they are and what they can do and don’t feel as threatened by newcomers with the skills of someone like Rivers.

“We had a young team, maturity-wise, this year,” Krzyzewski said. “I would’ve rather had him playing with Nolan Smith and Kyle Singer. I think they would’ve reacted better to his aggressive attitude. We didn’t always use his attitude properly.”

Fair enough. Other than his father, Doc Rivers, no one knows him better.

On the NBA Today Podcast, NBA Draft Insider Chad Ford and high school recruiting analyst Dave Telep discuss one of the most controversial talents in the 2012 Draft: Andre Drummond.

If you haven't seen Drummond, all 6-foot-11 and 280 pounds of him, in action, prepare to be confused. One moment he'll display the exceptional lateral quickness, soft hands and explosive leaping that suggest NBA stardom; the next, he's bricking a free throw straight off the backboard.

Drummond's physical tools make him a potential All-Star, but he's a work in progress. Which means to progress further -- something he absolutely must do to make an impact as a pro -- he'll need to do a lot of work. Whether that happens, whether he can capitalize on his prodigious physical ability, may depend largely on who drafts him.

Ford and Telep explain:

DAVE TELEP: There’s no question that that Andre Drummond is, in my mind, all things being equal, should be the number 2 pick in this draft.

I guarantee you he’s going to go somebody’s camp and there’s not going to be anyone on the roster who looks like him or moves like him. Does he want to be Andre Drummond the rotation player, or want to be Andre Drummond the guy who challenges for a max contract someday?

Where he’s going to fall on that continuum? I don’t think that you can possibly answer that question right now. It is truly up to him.

CHAD FORD: [Drummond] -- this isn’t a question of his character, by the way -- he doesn’t have a clue what it takes to be a great NBA player. He doesn’t understand the work that’s got to be put in, how hard it is, all the obstacles and challenges he’s going to face. He doesn’t have a clue.

That’s not a knock on him, by the way -- you could say the same thing about LeBron James. Now that he’s won the title, you’re hearing LeBron talk about things he didn’t know, things that he wasn’t doing, that he started doing when he realized he was going to have to put in more effort.

He’s been so great for so long, but to be a great NBA player requires hard work, it’s not just about being big or athletic, and I just don’t think [Drummond] gets that yet, but I’m not saying he won’t get it. I think he very well could.

TELEP: You think about when Randy Moss was drafted by the Vikings, and Chris Carter takes him under his wing. Andre Drummond is very much going to need someone to do that for him. Maybe Juwan Howard gets his 20th season serving as a mentor to Andre Drummond. Because if he’s going to be successful and max out his ability, he’s going to need someone to walk this journey with him a little bit.

If you put Andre Drummond with the Spurs -- and [I'm] just throwing them out because of the culture -- you put Andre Drummond with guys who have an approach to their job, that conduct themselves in that manner at an elite level, you’re giving him a final chance because he’s able to reset his foundation a little bit. If he goes to a culture of not much structure and a lot of flexibility, it could be trouble for him.

FORD: That’s a great point, and unfortunately, most of those teams drafting at the top of the lottery are drafting at the top of the lottery because they don’t have the right mentors and often times the right systems in place. And if he goes to the Bobcats, I’m not nearly as bullish on him as I would even going to the Wizards where Nene and Emeka Okafor are there as veteran guys who can help him understand what it takes to be an NBA pro.

Despite his rare talent, Ford has Drummond dropping all the way to the Golden State Warriors at No. 7 in his latest mock draft (Insider), up from a previous projection that Drummond him going ninth to the Pistons.

It's worth remembering that, though he may have the most impressive physical tools, Drummond is the second youngest player in the draft. The natural talent is there, but Ford and Telep suggest that his success will depend on the nurture he gets from whoever drafts him. In that sense, the team that eventually selects the young big man won't be betting on Drummond so much as its own player development staff and resources.

By Chad Ford and Marc Stein
ESPN.com

For the past several years, Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey has been trying to package assets together to make a big deal on draft night. The 2012 draft is no different.

Sources say that Houston has discussed deals with several teams in the top 10 about moving up in the draft. And the Rockets might have found two willing partners.

Although sources stressed that no deal is imminent, Sacramento (No. 5) and Toronto (No. 8 ) have let Houston know that their top-10 selections are available. Sources say that the Rockets, in turn, have made both of their first-round picks available (No. 14 and No. 16), but the key to any trade going through could be point guard Kyle Lowry.

The Raptors have been especially fond of Lowry, who has been regarded for months as a borderline untouchable in Houston but more recently has publicly expressed his dissatisfaction with Rockets coach Kevin McHale. Whether the Rockets are indeed prepared to part with Lowry, as talks with the Kings, Raptors and other teams continue, figures to be one of the bigger stories of draft week.

What’s clear from the Rockets’ end, sources say, is the player they’re fondest of in the upper reaches of the draft: UConn big man Andre Drummond. Many scouts believe Drummond has the second highest upside of any player in the draft behind consensus No. 1 overall pick Anthony Davis, but the 7-foot, 279-pounder would almost certainly still be available at No. 5.

Drummond, as the second youngest player in the draft at 18, registered an impressive 7-foot-6 wingspan at the NBA draft combine earlier this month. Personnel experts regard him as an elite athlete and shot-blocker who moves laterally especially well. But Drummond’s inconsistent play as a freshman, combined with questions about his passion for the game, have caused his draft stock to take a slight hit in recent weeks.

The tipoff that the Kings are likely to deal the No. 5 pick between now and Thursday night, sources say, is the handful of players they’ve brought in who are expected to be drafted in the middle of the first round. Sources say two of those players in particular -- North Carolina’s John Henson and St. John’s Moe Harkless -- are high on the Kings’ draft board.

Henson has already worked out for the Kings and Harkless is scheduled to work out on Monday. Sacramento has also tried to get several other candidates for the middle of the first round, including UConn’s Jeremy Lamb and Washington’s Terrence Ross, into town for 11th-hour workouts.

UPDATE (12:48 a.m. ET): Upon hearing of Sunday night's developments, one rival general manager told ESPN.com that he believes Houston's real aim is acquiring two top-10 picks this week to turn around quickly and offer both to the Orlando Magic as part of a considerable trade offer for Dwight Howard.

The Rockets' willingness to trade for Howard -- even without the All-Star center's signature on a contract extension -- is an open secret around the league. But it's believed that two top-eight picks, assuming Houston managed to complete trades with both Sacramento and Toronto, would seriously pique the interest of new Magic general manager Rob Hennigan, who could then quickly start following the same sort of roster-building blueprint relied on by his previous employers in Oklahoma City.

Acquiring those early lottery picks, though, only represents half of Houston's challenge if Howard is indeed the Rockets' target. The other hurdle is convincing Hennigan, who hasn't even been on the job for a week in Central Florida, to part with Howard so quickly. As much as he's been schooled in building through the draft while working alongside Thunder GM Sam Presti, Hennigan could opt to take a more measured approach, make one more run at trying to convince Howard to sign an extension before entering the final year of his contract and then trade him later in the summer if those efforts go nowhere.

The Toronto Raptors know exactly what they want out of the 2012 NBA draft:

An established, athletic wing man.

And that's why the Raptors have already made it known to rival teams that their lottery pick on June 28 -- No. 8 overall -- is available to a trade partner that can provide the elite small forward they seek, according to sources close to the situation.

With a slew of league execs having converged on Chicago this week for the NBA's annual pre-draft camp, sources told ESPN.com that the Raptors have at least two known trade targets: Memphis swingman Rudy Gay and Philadelphia's Andre Iguodala.

The Raptors, sources said, are prepared to part with their lottery pick in this month's draft at least partly because they have a lottery pick on the way. Lithuanian star Jonas Valanciunas, selected No. 5 overall by Toronto in the 2011 draft, is poised to join the Raptors next season after the young 7-footer quickly established himself as one of the most exciting big men in Europe.

Yet it remains to be seen whether Toronto can manufacture the other assets needed to go with the No. 8 to tempt Memphis or Philly or any other team that surfaces with a top swingman available. Veteran point guard Jose Calderon (who possesses an expiring contract in 2012-13) and young big man Ed Davis are among the players that the Raptors would conceivably be willing to put into a trade package.

As ESPN.com reported Sunday, Toronto also plans to be a determined suitor in free agency for Phoenix Suns point guard Steve Nash, hoping to bring Canada's former Olympic basketball captain and newly installed general manager of the senior national team back to home soil.

But if the Raptors decide, in the end, not to make a draft-night deal and keep the pick, they're expected to focus on the top guards that could be available at No. 8. Sources say that Toronto is intrigued by Syracuse's Dion Waiters, UConn's Jeremy Lamb and Weber State's Damian Lillard.

The Orlando Magic have begun informing teams that Dwight Howard is no longer on the trade market, two sources told ESPN.com.

The Magic have decided that none of the various offers they've received, most notably from the New Jersey Nets and Los Angeles Lakers, is worth executing, according to sources.

To avoid any more drama, the team is no longer taking calls on Howard, sources said.

• Read the full story here »

• To see dozens of NBA rumors, check out NBA Rumor Central

The Toronto Raptors drafted Jonas Valanciunas with the No. 5 pick in the 2011 NBA draft knowing it would be at least a year before he came to the NBA.

But a source close to the team told ESPN.com on Saturday that there's a small chance they might be able to get him this season.

The source said that the team reached out to Valanciunas' agent over the weekend to gauge the center's interest in joining the Raptors in 2011-12. If Valanciunas has interest, the Toronto would have to work out a buyout with his team in Lithuania, Lietuvos Rytas.

Valanciunas does not currently have an NBA buyout for this season in his overseas deal, but things have changed for Lietuvos Rytas over the past five months. They failed to qualify for the Euroleague this season and the team will likely lose critical sponsorship money. Given the current situation, they need money more than Valanciunas.

Does the Lithuanian center want to come to the NBA this season? Valanciunas told NBA teams prior to the draft that he felt he needed at least one more year in Europe to get stronger and play more minutes at the highest level before coming abroad.

But the Raptors believe Valanciunas may be better served by joining the NBA now. The 19-year-old big man spent the entire summer and fall playing in Lithuania, giving him valuable experience. He showed what he was capable of in U-19 play, averaging a tournament-high 23 points, 13.8 rebounds and 3.2 blocks per game to lead Lithuania to the gold medal. Against Team USA and Florida's Patric Young, a projected first-rounder in 2012, Valanciunas had 30 points, 15 rebounds and four blocks.

With the shortened NBA season, expectations also won't be as high. If Valanciunas came to the Raptors, he can practice with the team, get minutes off the bench and use the season to acclimatize to the NBA. By the start of training camp next fall, the Raptors believe he would be ahead of where he would be if he stayed in Europe.

If the Raptors are able to get Valanciunas now, it will be a major coup. Many NBA scouts believe he was the best long-term big man prospect in the 2011 draft and Toronto has a major need at the 5.

The news would also come as a blow to the Cavs. Cleveland had been high on Valanciunas and was expected to select him with the No. 4 pick. However, concerns about his buyout situation in Lithuania arose the week before the draft and the Cavs opted to play it safe and instead take Texas' Tristan Thompson after taking Duke's Kyrie Irving with the first pick. Had they known Valanciunas could come over this season, they likely would've taken him at No. 4.

• To see dozens of NBA trade rumors, check out NBA Rumor Central

The Cavaliers have told both Kyrie Irving’s and Derrick Williams’ agents that they won't tip their hand on whom they are drafting, so we do have some real drama going into the No. 1 pick.

I’m continuing to hear both Bismack Biyombo and Brandon Knight at No. 5. Jan Vesley looks like a lock at No. 6. It looks like Tristan Thompson or Bismack Biyombo at No. 7 to the Bobcats.

The Pistons will likely take who is available among Thompson and Biyombo, with Thompson preferred.

Will it be Kawhi Leonard or Chris Singleton at No. 9 to the Bobcats?

Will it be Jimmer Fredette or Kemba Walker at No. 10 to the Kings?

Kemba Walker or Alec Burks at No. 12 to the Jazz? Markieff Morris, Kemba Walker or Iman Shumpert at No. 13 to the Suns?

Alec Burks or Markieff Morris at No. 15 to the Pacers?

• Read the full story here.

The Milwaukee Bucks have agreed in principle to a three-team trade with the Sacramento Kings and the Charlotte Bobcats, multiple sources said Thursday.

The Bucks will get Sacramento's Beno Udrih, Charlotte's Stephen Jackson and Shaun Livingston and the 19th pick from the Bobcats in Thursday night's draft, while Charlotte obtains the No. 7 pick from Sacramento and forward Corey Maggette from Milwaukee.

The Kings will get guard John Salmons from Milwaukee and the 10th pick in the draft. Charlotte will keep the No. 9 pick.

• Read the full story here.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have the No. 1 and No. 4 picks in the draft. But will they also snag another lottery pick?

Sources say the Cavs have been very actively trying to do just that, with a massive $14.5 million trade exception as the device. The offer? Give us your pick and we'll take back a bad contract into our trade exception, which permits the Cavs to take back salary of more than $14 million.

In that scenario, the Sacramento Kings and the Detroit Pistons look like the most intriguing potential partners. Would the Kings be willing to give up the No. 7 pick if the Cavs gave them Ramon Sessions and took back Francisco Garcia? The Kings are already under the salary cap, but Garcia has $12 million over two years on his contract, and Sacramento would love to move him.

Or if it's Detroit at No. 8, Cleveland could swallow an even bigger contract, such as that belonging to Richard Hamilton ($12.5 million next season) or Charlie Villanueva (three years, $24 million remaining).

The Cavs would love to get Kyrie Irving, Tristan Thompson and Jonas Valanciunas in the lottery. Or they could also make a stab at getting Minnesota's No. 2 pick for, let's say, the No. 4 and No. 7 (or No. 8) picks.

• To see dozens of NBA rumors, check out NBA Rumor Central

The Boston Celtics are taking a hard look at Marquette's Jimmy Butler and Boston College's Reggie Jackson with the 25th pick in the draft. But there's another potential option for Boston.

The Celtics are open to moving out of the draft altogether if they can trade their pick for a young player. The Celtics have a $2.4 million trade exception that would allow them to take back a young player without having to send anything in return other than the 25th pick.

• To see dozens of NBA rumors, check out NBA Rumor Central

The Raptors love Brandon Knight, but would they take Bismack Biyombo even if Knight is on the board at No. 5? I'm hearing it's a real possibility.

If Knight doesn't go fifth, there's almost no chance he gets past Sacramento at No. 7. If that's the case, then Kemba Walker could be in for that Jimmer-Kemba showdown in Utah at No. 12.

• To see dozens of NBA rumors, check out NBA Rumor Central

The Cavs have some serious stat guys on their staff. That may explain why they are so high on Tristan Thompson, who John Hollinger has rated third in his Draft Rater.

If the Cavs take Thompson at No. 4, I'm hearing Jonas Valanciunas, who I currently have in the 4 spot in Mock Draft 7.0, probably goes No. 8 to the Pistons.

• To see dozens of NBA rumors, check out NBA Rumor Central

We just published our Mock Draft 7.0, where a number of areas are still a bit hazy. Although I'm feeling pretty solid on picks 1-3, the Cavs are still trying to decide between Jonas Valanciunas and Tristan Thompson at No. 4. They had both players in town this week to meet with owner Dan Gilbert.

Picks 5 and 6 also feel very solid right now depending on what happens at the top. The Raptors have been high on Brandon Knight for weeks, and the Wizards have been high on Jan Vesely for months.

To me, the biggest wild card right now is with the Kings at No. 7. I don't think they are in love with anyone on the board. Not Kemba Walker. Not Kawhi Leonard. Not Jimmer Fredette. They're clearly talking to a number of teams about a trade. Walker is our default pick right now, but there's a good chance he won't be the pick.

If Walker doesn't go No. 7, he could slide ... but how far? The Bobcats will look at him at No. 9. But to me, the most intriguing scenario of the entire draft will happen if Walker and Fredette are both on the board for the Jazz at No. 12. If the Jazz take Enes Kanter at No. 3, they are likely to go with a guard here.

There will be enormous pressure on Utah to draft Fredette here and good reasons to do so. But would the Jazz really pass on Walker, a guy whom they seriously considered at No. 3, to take the hometown hero? I don't think so. I think if both players are on the board, the Jazz would take Kemba. It wouldn't be a hugely popular decision in Utah, but Jazz GM Kevin O'Connor isn't afraid to do the unpopular thing.

• To see dozens of NBA rumors, check out NBA Rumor Central

Is Thunder point guard Eric Maynor worth a lottery pick? Sources say the Thunder have been quietly gauging interest in Maynor during the past few days in an attempt to move up into the top half of the first round. They've spoken to the Kings (No. 7) and Bobcats (No. 9) in particular in the past few days.

Maynor was the 20th pick in the 2009 draft, which was one of the most loaded point guard drafts. With so few quality point guards on the board this year, would a team covet him more than Kemba Walker or Jimmer Fredette?

Who are the Thunder after? Like a lot of teams, it seems they are in hot pursuit of Lithuanian big man Jonas Valanciunas.

• To see dozens of NBA rumors, check out NBA Rumor Central

What's the hottest place to be right now in the NBA draft? It appears to be the mid-lottery.

The Pistons, Bobcats, Bucks and Warriors are getting flooded with calls from teams looking to move into that range.

Among the teams that have made calls? The Rockets (who are offering picks Nos. 14 and 23), the Pacers (No. 15 and Brandon Rush), the Knicks (No. 17 and Toney Douglas) and the Spurs (George Hill).

Sources say the Rockets and Spurs are interested in Jonas Valanciunas if he ends up sliding. The Spurs also are eying Washington State's Klay Thompson, according to sources. The Knicks are looking at both Thompson and Jimmer Fredette with that pick. For the Pacers, it's Fredette.

The bigger question is, will any of them make a deal?

The Pistons are seriously considering the Rockets' offer -- especially if Kawhi Leonard and Tristan Thompson are off the board. The target at No. 14?
Markieff Morris. Morris wowed the Pistons in a big workout Tuesday, and they feel he could still be on the board there.

The Bobcats are in the most interesting situation. They are trying to package picks Nos. 9 and 19 to move up a few spots to get a shot at drafting Leonard. However, if Leonard is off the board, the Bobcats might be inclined to do a deal with Houston or San Antonio.

I don't think the Bucks or Warriors are inclined to do the Spurs trade, as Hill doesn't hold a huge appeal for either team. The Rockets trade might hold some interest, but not until certain players are off the board. Both the Bucks and Warriors have interest in Valanciunas if he falls, and both teams also are fans of Thompson.