TrueHoop: David Thorpe

TrueHoop TV: Thunder trouble

May, 1, 2013
May 1
2:01
PM ET
Abbott By Henry Abbott
ESPN.com
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David Thorpe has his doubts the Thunder can even beat the Rockets, let alone win a title. And Russell Westbrook's injury is only part of the story.
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HoopIdea: Swift justice for dirty play

May, 1, 2013
May 1
1:33
PM ET
Abbott By Henry Abbott
ESPN.com
Archive
video
On video, it looks like strategy.

Stephen Curry, the NBA's newest and slightest superstar, who has been killing the Nuggets on ankles so brittle he recently tweeted "no ankle left unturned lol," was minding his own business, jogging through the lane three-and-a-half minutes into Game 5, when the Nuggets' Kenneth Faried stepped backward, directly into Curry's tender foot.

It wasn't an isolated event.

"Three or four plays in the first four minutes," estimates Curry, who says "of course" the Nuggets were trying to rough him up.

I knew this was coming. Intentional fouls, I've been increasingly realizing, are the go-to method of controlling superstars. Curry, with a skinny build and weak ankles, is more vulnerable than anybody. As he emerged as a player who could decide a series, the clock was ticking. He would get roughed up. It made too much sense.

"Some dirty plays early," pointed out Curry's coach, Mark Jackson, who later said this of Faried: "Take a look ... the screen on Curry by the foul line is a shot at his ankle. Clearly. That can't be debated. ... I've got inside information that some people don't like that brand of basketball and they clearly didn't co-sign it. So they wanted me to know they had no parts in what was taking place."

Jackson -- whose team has committed all kinds of hard fouls in this series (ask Andre Iguodala about Andrew Bogut) and this season, including some that caused injury -- spoke passionately in defense of hard play, and even hard fouls. But he stressed it was important for both teams to go to the trouble to avoid injuring each other.

On TNT later, Charles Barkley explained: "I've been on teams where you say ... this dude's too comfortable. Every time you get a chance, hit him. You want him to be thinking about 'Where am I going to get hit at next time?' You can't go out there like you're at a shootaround."

Shaquille O'Neal heartily co-signed, saying Jackson went too far in calling such a thing "dirty," insisting instead it's just the nature of the game. (Every retired player will tell you it was way rougher when they played. That's what they do, even though there's little evidence the game was really more physical back then.)

Here's the thing, though: Forget the teams for a second. Forget rooting for Denver or Golden State. Forget the tail-chasing debate about what's "dirty."

Put yourselves in the position of the people who are charged with keeping players safe: The NBA. They're the ones who have fallen asleep on the job here.

If you're the NBA, or any fan of basketball, you want nothing more than for Curry -- the most exciting player in these playoffs -- to keep creating artistic moments that fire the imagination. You want to see skilled players doing the skilled things that make this league unique, and distinct from MMA. You want this for every player.

In short, you don't want to see Curry play his best in Game 6 only if he proves his ankles can withstand intentional attack. (We already know they probably can't ... he has missed dozens of games from plays with no contact at all.) You want him at his best in Game 6 because the other team is not "hitting him every chance they get."

And we could have that, right now.

Teams are roughing up opposing stars because it works. It works because many intentional fouls are missed entirely by the referees, and those that are noticed, even dangerous ones, are punished too lightly to make it stop.

Barkley and O'Neal played in an NBA where there was no strategic reason not to rough a guy like Curry up. You "hit" him 10 times a night as a team, you get called for four or five. That's the cost. The benefit is he is intimidated, fearing for safety, and diminished as a scoring threat all night long, for every play of his night. The benefit is bigger than the cost! Someone with SportVu data can probably do the math: Six or seven extra free throws is a small price to pay for a dozen extra hits -- many uncalled -- that result in a cowed, hobbled or injured opposing star. That's a fantastic trade for the more aggressive team.

That's "playoff basketball."

No coach will go on record against it. They want the ability to hit players early and often, both because it's a valuable tactic for a team and because it's a particularly valuable tactic for coaches. Intentional fouls take power from superstars -- who'd dominate even more without fear of injury -- and give it to he who can order up the hits.

The problem, though, is that it's 2013, and the league has more than enough tools, right now, to clean all of this up. Getting away scot-free with a lot of cheap shots is a key reason this is a winning strategy. But why, in a world where every court is encircled by cameras, where everyone at home benefits from truly instant HD replay from all kinds of angles, would the people making the key decisions of the game not have real-time access to that crucial information? Why would we shrug and say "we can't catch 'em all" when we totally can?

You have no idea how many times a night, thanks to the magic of watching ESPN or TNT in HD with a remote control in my hand, I know precisely whether there was a foul or not, even as the referees have no idea. It's crazy. And it makes the NBA look crazy. Why do the people with the beer and the popcorn on the couch have better real-time information than the people making game-deciding calls?

NBA referees are the best in the world, but everybody thinks they're terrible because of this. And meanwhile, the game is not being called nearly as accurately, quickly or comprehensively as it could be.

My HoopIdea: Get away from stopping the game for video review. And graduate to a courtside referee or two, with as many TV screens as would be helpful, showing every angle imaginable. This video referee crew would constantly review all the best angles of what is happening right now as it happens. They might be a few seconds behind real time if they need to rewind briefly, but not much. They'd essentially know everything video could know, without having to stop the game to huddle around a single monitor. And when they know something the referees on the court missed, they'd be able to tell them at the next dead ball, or even sooner.

The plays where the video makes the referees look foolish ... they're usually at dead balls anyway.

Before you tell me this is loco, realize the league already does this. They review the games after they're over, for instance a whole day later. And then they "correct" the referees' work when it was egregiously wrong, either by apologizing for a missed call, and then warning, fining or suspending somebody for a flop, a dirty play, fighting or anything else.

I'm baffled by the delay. Players are hitting each other as part of team-wide strategy -- endorsed by Barkley, O'Neal and oddly, even Mark Jackson -- because they help them win games.

As long as the real punishment only comes after the game, there are still wins to be had for teams who are beating people up. Whatever the NBA believes can be gleaned from video, glean it when it's still useful to decide the game, when it's still useful to keep up with the fans at home, and to make the strategy of Tackle Basketball stop working.

The league's executives, from David Stern to Stu Jackson, have been clear they do not want teams taking the floor planning to hurt each other. Time to do something about it.

Thorpe: What the Warriors have right

April, 29, 2013
Apr 29
1:29
PM ET
Thorpe By David Thorpe
ESPN.com
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Steph Curry
John Leyba/The Denver Post/Getty ImagesSteph Curry, says David Thorpe, "didn't just go a little bit crazy scoring in the third quarter."
David Thorpe has been watching the Warriors versus Nuggets series closely and has an array of observations and thoughts. He shared them by phone, and they are transcribed (and lightly edited for length) here:

Mark Jackson is incredibly inspiring

Mark Jackson has been absolutely tremendous. Everyone always wants to talk about X's and O's, but I believe the coaching game is half emotional. And on that stuff, he's scoring a 10 out of 10. They show those clips of Jackson during timeouts and he's inspiring Every. Single. Time.

Think about LeBron James and how he has grown as a player. It's not really about strategy, compared to a few years ago. It's about mentality. His biggest adjustment has been concentration and attention to detail. He has always had that quickness and size advantage. Now he punishes you with those every time you make a mistake guarding him. Now he's more balanced on his jumper and holds his follow-through. All things he has always known but that now he values more.

Denver is getting outplayed in those aspects. The Warriors are playing for their lives, and the coaching has a ton to do with it.

Jackson has been like the corner man in a heavyweight bout. Respect your opponent, but realize we're better. He's using action words, words with violence, but in a good way. He's got charisma. And look at his players' faces and you can see they absolutely believe.

Who would have guessed two weeks ago that in a Denver versus Golden State series, Golden State would have far more energy?

To my eyes, the Warriors were exhausted in Game 2. But they blew out the Nuggets anyway.

Stephen Curry walking the path

Coach Jackson has been saying amazing, uplifting, inspiring things about Steph Curry. And Curry has been "walking the path" as one of the best guards in the playoffs. Thirty-footers are within his range, and right now he absolutely believes he's going to make it.

If you were the Clippers, and right now you could pick any guard to lead your team for the next series, would you pick Chris Paul or Curry? We could argue all day about this for another series, or for next year. But for right now, I'd argue you'd be better off with Steph. Shooting is just so valuable, and Curry is playing like a top-five NBA player. (This also makes me think about that video we made about Trey Burke. Six-footers who can shoot the lights out are to be drafted quickly!)

George Karl is not inspiring

Everything's so different now. You know how many games Kosta Koufos started in the regular season? Eighty-one! You know how many he has started in this series? TWO! (He has played 64 total minutes in the four games of the series.) Evan Fournier was out of the rotation almost all year and is now starting. They've been moving the ball as well as any team all year and now the point guards, Ty Lawson and Andre Miller, both think they have to score to save the team (Ed. note: Miller's assists are down from 8.1 per 36 minutes in the regular season to 5.3. Lawson's are up a hair, from 7.2 to 7.5). This is also a strange time to see what Koufos and JaVale McGee can do together.

I recognize that injuries to Danilo Gallinari and Kenneth Faried mean changes. But this is beyond what was necessary, and it seems to have had an unsettling effect on the team. They were once a breathtaking team in transition.

They are not what they have been.

The Nuggets have not come out with confidence, and they often look confused.

They keep forgetting to guard the top 3-point shooter in the league!

Kenneth Faried is not himself

Faried can't move. He looks like he's running in quicksand. I've long thought he might be the quickest power forward in the league. Now he looks like an older version of Spencer Hawes. He's Brad Miller, basically.

For the Nuggets to be the Nuggets, the team that reeled off 15 impressive wins in a row in the regular season, they have got to have the Manimal. Without David Lee in this series, the Nuggets should own the offensive glass. But Faried can't move. He's such a key to cleaning up all those misses on offense. This just isn't the same guy.

You probably heard about Faried kicking a hole in the locker room wall? I feel like I understand that. That's the dejection of incredible frustration related to his injury. In college, I was taught about how stroke victims get counseling to deal with the incredible anguish and frustration that comes with new limitations, and having to think about things you never had to think about before.

Faried has never had to think about beating people to loose balls. That just came naturally. But not now.

Defensive mistakes

The difference between how the Bulls have adjusted to injuries and the Nuggets is stark. Every Bull knows where to go at all times on defense, no matter who's in the game. They have been perfecting that for years. The Nuggets often seem not to know where to go.

In particular, Denver seems to be reacting to the passed ball, instead of anticipating where the play will be and heading there earlier. When in doubt, they should be running toward Curry. He's the best shooter in the world!

Warriors getting the most out of players

You could make the case halfway through this season that, on offense at least, Draymond Green was really not an NBA-quality player. He is literally playing for his basketball life.

And it looks like it. He is locked in to the idea of stopping the Nuggets at the point of attack. He's not just saying to himself that they're not going to score. He's saying they're not even going to get close. He is not the fastest guy on the floor, but he's so aggressive nobody can do anything against him anyway. Andre Miller scored a game winner against him, and it's almost like ever since then Draymond has said, "OK, that's not happening again."

Andrew Bogut has been a huge, huge, huge story. His energy and defensive presence have defined the interior play for the entire series. And on offense, well, in Game 4 he managed to score six field goals in 26 minutes. The Nuggets' big men, Koufos and McGee, managed just one bucket between them in more than 28 minutes.

Jarrett Jack's quickness makes a big difference, too. Denver is steering driving players toward the help. But Jack is so fast that he's just blowing right by them at full speed -- they're doing nothing to slow him down -- and then he loves to shoot a floater before the help can bother him. Against a lot of players, it's a good defensive approach to encourage the floater. But Jack loves it.

Snap analysis: Thunder without Westbrook

April, 26, 2013
Apr 26
2:43
PM ET
Thorpe By David Thorpe
ESPN.com
Archive
Russell Westbrook
Christian Petersen/Getty Images
The West's top team will play without point guard after Russell Westbrook for the first time.

The Thunder have announced that Russell Westbrook will undergo surgery to repair a torn meniscus after an injury in the second quarter of Game 2. At this time it's not known how long he'll be out.

How will the Thunder be different without Westbrook, who has literally never missed a game? ESPN Insider David Thorpe has watched the Thunder closely all year and offers the following thoughts:

1. Especially tough for this offense to adjust
The worst thing about this is that they have built a wheel around two spokes: Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. This is not Miami or San Antonio, or Utah with its flex offense of recent years. The Thunder offense is a series of isolations for the two main guys, with other actions sprinkled in here or there. That makes this, seemingly, as good a challenge as you can have. They have never worked on scoring without Westbrook because they have never had to.

Gregg Popovich takes long minutes of the regular season to mix in bench guys to prep for whatever might happen. The Thunder could have done that. They had all season to prepare the bench for these kinds of things. They didn't do that. They were never forced to do that, and they never chose to do that.

2. Reggie Jackson's opportunity
Reggie Jackson is a dynamic one-on-one scorer. He'll get the lion's share of the minutes that would have gone to Westbrook. He's not the same player. He plays much more below the rim, but for an occasional dunk. But he can get a lot of good things done.

What he doesn't have is Westbrook's spirit or fight. That's something the team will really miss.

Westbrook's demeanor is so incredibly valuable. At times he is the worst decision-maker in the NBA. It's like World B. Free sometimes. But he makes up for that with incredible attitude, drive and commitment. The Thunder aren't going to have that from the point guard position.

3. Not about the defense
Westbrook is an athletic playmaker on defense. He's not a great defensive player, but he contributes on a lot of plays.

4. Kevin Martin can do more
Kevin Martin has been a dynamic scorer in the past. Even this year, when much less has been asked of him, he has formed one of the NBA's most efficient duos with Nick Collison. They are literally one of the most effective combinations of players in the NBA. Martin can certainly handle more of the scoring load against the Rockets, who are one of the worst defensive teams in the playoffs.

5. Rockets not the problem
Without Westbrook the Rockets are certainly good enough to win two out of five against the Rockets. It's going to get more difficult after that against the Grizzlies or Clippers. But on the Rockets only Omer Asik is a problem. Nobody else on the Rockets causes a lot of problems when the Thunder are trying to score.

6. OK without Westbrook in short stints
There are some lineups without Westbrook that did well this season. (A search of NBA.com/stats shows, for instance, that Martin, Jackson, Derek Fisher, Kevin Durant and Nick Collison have been effective.) This team is better built than, say the Bulls, to win without their point guard in the postseason. The Bulls lost their best player, but the Thunder lost their second-best player, and have several more talented players left.

Kevin Durant it one of the best scorers in the history of the world. Kevin Martin is among the highest ranked in the league in points per possession and points per touch. Jackson has good numbers too. This is not like subbing in C.J. Watson.

7. Whole bunch of Durant?
It may be that Kevin Durant shoots a million times without Westbrook on the court. This will be a gigantic test of Scott Brooks. Tom Thibodeau certainly responded to Rose's absence by getting his guys to play very hard and together. That's the challenge for Scott.

How will the team take this news? I don't think they'll take it lightly.

The media will bring up the Harden trade again and again. That's a challenge to the players on the roster now.

Let me tell you nobody is rejoicing over there. But with the quality of players on that roster, guys like Serge Ibaka, Nick Collison, Kevin Martin and Reggie Jackson are thinking "I know I can step up and do more."

They're not going to be sleepwalking. I think they'll be ready and will win Game 3. The question is how they adjust to the idea over time, in Game 4 or Game 5. Are they thinking they need to hold on while Westbrook is gone for a while, or are they thinking he's gone for good? The latter idea is a much harder one to adjust to.
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