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It's late in a close game, your team has the ball, and they need to decide what to do.

Pick and roll? Isolation? Drive and kick? This shooter? That one?

These are tough decisions and precisely why coaches get the big bucks.

Too bad so many teams keep screwing these decisions up in these playoffs.

My radical proposal, developed over the last several years of obsessing over this stuff: Whatever your team does, it ought to be something with a good chance of succeeding. There are lots of right answers.

I'd bet big money time will make clearer that the wrong answer is to call timeout to set up an isolation play. No matter your opinion of advanced stats, these things are all true:

• Timeouts hurt the offense and help the defense.
• Isolations consistently rank as just about the least effective type of NBA play.
• It's essentially impossible to find evidence any player is predictably efficient against the double team.
• "Any random open player" has been shown to be a better option than a covered superstar, and it's not close.

And yet, look what has been happening in these playoffs.

THUNDER GAME 4 vs. ROCKETS

This has been the season that many teams have seen the light about moving the ball to the open man. For instance, instead of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade vs. the world, the Heat have surrounded their stars with deadly shooters. Predictably, it has made a massive difference.

The Spurs were counted out as old, but dusted almost everybody by continuing their long-term worship of uncontested shots.

See the trend there? Good teams that don't play Hero Ball sweep the first round.

Meanwhile, of the league's three top contending teams (Miami, San Antonio, Oklahoma City) this season, the Thunder were always the holdouts. They have long believed in isolation hoops. Perhaps this is no surprise ... their coach had a playing career that coincided almost perfectly with the heyday of isolation play. Smart research has long shown that the Thunder's offense is at its best when Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook shot a little bit less, but the team sure does not run plays with that in mind. Their strategic approach has always been built around the idea that they want those guys shooting the rock.

The Thunder roster, led by the stars, are so doggone good that makes for a top-five NBA' offense anyway. But when Westbrook went down to a knee injury, a scary new decision faced Oklahoma City. Without Westbrook, would they finally see the value in open shooters? Or would they double down in their commitment to superstars, only this time with just one left?

The problem with having only one superstar is that my mom could draw up the defensive scheme. (On Monday night's broadcast Chris Webber saw what the Rockets were doing late to cover Durant and declared it the first time in his entire life he had seen a full-court double-team.) It's easy to make sure Durant faces a ton of defense every possession, and so what if he occasionally beats 'em all?

The result was the Rockets -- perhaps the worst defensive team in the playoffs -- held one of the league's best offensive teams (60-game winners) to a grand total of three buckets over the game's five final minutes. In that time Derek Fisher, Kevin Martin, Serge Ibaka and Thabo Sefolosha spent all kinds of time -- on video, it's glaring -- standing all alone in position to catch and shoot. Research shows open role players in those kinds of situations are vastly more effective than covered stars. According to NBA.com's stats tool, however, those four together combined for a grand total of one attempt, while Durant and fill-in Westbrook -- Reggie Jackson, took all the shots.

Simply put, with more respect for open shooters, and less fascination with who's shooting, the Thunder absolutely could have scored more. And they only had to score a tiny bit more to, you know, end the series.

It came to a hilarious head with 12 seconds left. The Thunder had been force-feeding Durant so religiously the defense scarcely looked at anybody else. And yet, in the face of evidence timeouts only help the defense, and despite a Rockets team scrambling to get in place, the Thunder called a timeout.

They hadn't run an actual play in a half-hour, and weren't about to. What could there have been to talk about? It was the stuff of Twitter jokes:

@truehoop "just to confirm guys, we're going with Kevin. I know you know, just wanted to emphasise. So, yeah... ' - Scott Brooks.

— Anton Trees (@as_trees) April 30, 2013

 

After letting the defense get set, the Thunder flirted with turning the ball over, and ended up losing valuable seconds trying to establish Durant. He gave up his dribble in the face of tough defense, almost turned it over trying to get it to Jackson, who scrambled to create a Hail Mary out of a broken play that failed at the buzzer.

Would it kill you to run a pick-and-roll?

ROCKETS GAME 4 vs. THUNDER
All the things I just wrote about Durant and the Thunder go double for the Rockets and James Harden. Kevin McHale uses Harden like you used your favorite new song when you were 12 -- again and again and again until it's completely worn out.

As much as the Thunder offense was good all season but bad in crunch time, the Rockets are the kings of that particular dynamic, and have been for the same reason all season. They're also famously the most analytical team in the league, meaning almost certainly somebody is telling McHale this is a bad idea, but he's doing it anyway.

The Rockets' late-game offense consisted largely of Harden shooting tough shots against the Thunder's hand-picked defenders, Sefolosha and in one case after a switch, Ibaka, with teammates standing still and watching with the shot clock expiring. These are awful conditions for an offense -- how strange for the offense to have set up the conditions that precise way.

Non-Harden players made two of five shots in the final five minutes. None of Harden's three shots were all that close. One was an airball.

This is an old trend from the Lakers, which has been generally true throughout Kobe Bryant's career: The team builds a lead playing some kind of team-focused ball, and then the offense grinds to a halt late in games when the offense focuses increasingly on the team's "best option." In reality the team's best option is to keep using the screens, cuts, passes and movement of people and the ball that got them the lead in the first place.

KNICKS vs. CELTICS GAME 4
The Celtics won this game. Here's an exchange that shows why: With 1:12 left in regulation and the Knicks up two, Paul Pierce took a handoff from Kevin Garnett on the left side. Everyone knows Pierce is the Celtics' closer, and everyone knows his go-to closing move is a nifty little fall away jumper around the free throw line. By the time Pierce got to his spot and elevated, Tyson Chandler, Carmelo Anthony and Raymond Felton formed a nice crowd around him.

But ... surprise! Pierce didn't shoot. He passed. Back to Garnett. Who had roughly 400 square miles of open space all around him, as the defense had been wholly duped into crunch time hero worship. Garnett stepped into a nice tidy open jump shot. Not a hero shot at all -- and therefore a wonderful one, with very high expected points per possession. The best shots are open shots.

Meanwhile the Knicks, like the Thunder, were missing a key scorer -- in this instance J.R. Smith was out. And like the Thunder they used that as an excuse to go Hero Ball all the way.

So on the next possession New York got the ball to Carmelo Anthony, who was very well covered by long, lean Jeff Green, and missed a 29-footer as the clock expired.

It was as the Knicks believed there was literally magic in Anthony's fingertips. For much of the season the Knicks were a study in ball movement, with shooters hoisting open 3s at record rates. They tossed that playbook for this game, however, instead having Anthony launch 35 shots almost all of which were heavily covered. He missed 25.

The Knicks averaged more than 19 assists per game this year but finished this 53-minute overtime game with 10. It's easy to see why -- because in situations when a covered Anthony would have once passed to the open man -- and there were plenty of them -- out of a misguided conviction it was best for his team, in this game he fired away.

In the final five minutes of regulation plus overtime a collection of the Knicks most efficient shooters -- Steve Novak, Jason Kidd and Tyson Chandler -- didn't take a single shot, while Anthony shot a mighty ten and made but two. Non-Anthony Knicks, meanwhile, were three-of-six over those crucial ten minutes.

The role of a coach is to guide a team to run the plays that give the team the best possible chance of success. If you were an NBA owner, how long would you keep believing in a coach whose teams used the exact opposite approach when it mattered most, running plays that would predictably get bad results?

• Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News: When Stephen Curry is officially anointed the greatest shooter of all time, they will talk about this game, and they won't have to say much else. When and if the Warriors finish off Denver in this series, they will point to the final 4 minutes, 22 seconds of the third quarter Sunday night, and it will all be explained. When thousands of Oracle Arena fans suffer from partial hearing loss for days and weeks, maybe years ... well, they will know what happened. Curry happened, like a thunder clap, over and over and over again. Was this the birth of a superstar? "Those guys are just coming to the hospital," Warriors coach Mark Jackson said of newcomers to the Curry-is-a-Superstar Bandwagon. "The baby has been born already. "We've been watching it all year long. He's put this team on his back. ... Here's where you recognize where the great players are." And from that, there might be no turning back. The practical result is that Curry's magical 22-point third quarter -- and 19-point storm in the final 4:22 -- pushed the Warriors to a 115-101 victory in Game 4 of this first-round series. "I was feeling a little warmer, bodywise, in the third quarter, just get a rhythm," Curry said after his ankle pain led to a sluggish first half. "The goal kind of looked a little bigger."
• Mark Kiszla of The Denver Post: Nuggets swingman Andre Iguodala is paid a salary of $15 million, give or take the retail price of a yacht. But, right now, you can bet Iguodala would invest heavily to buy a clutch basket, a vowel or the star quality of Golden State guard Stephen Curry. Behind 31 points from Curry, the Warriors ran Denver out of the gym Sunday night with a 115-101 victory. After winning 57 games during the regular season, the Nuggets have picked a lousy time to suffer a three-game losing streak against the Western Conference's No. 6 seed. Here is Nuggets coach George Karl, with all the analysis you need from this series: "They're probably twice as good as shooters as we are." Curry is a bona fide NBA star. And Iguodala is not. With his team now a single game from elimination in the opening round of the playoffs, it appears Karl could become the most sheepish, miserable winner of the league's coach of the year award. … Here is what is sad. Iguodala's solid reputation is built on defense. Yet there is nothing Iguodala or anybody else on the Nuggets' roster can do to stop Curry, even when he's at less than full strength. Unless your name is Bill Russell or Dennis Rodman, the notion that defense wins championships in the NBA is largely a myth. This league is built around big shots who hit the big shot.
• Buck Harvey of the San Antonio Express-News: These Lakers were closer to the Sacramento Kings. But the Spurs convinced themselves of something else entirely. They took Popovich’s appropriate-fear message to another level; it was a self-created, alternate-reality fear. Baynes’ surprising start might have helped, since he wasn’t about to overlook a thing. But the energy that went through the Spurs was deeper than this. When Parker wasn’t spinning toward the basket, DeJuan Blair was moving his feet and muscling the Lakers’ big men. Afterward, a reporter reminded Tim Duncan of his long history with the Lakers. Without Bryant in uniform, did this feel like a chapter in that book? “You know what,” Duncan began, “it’s hard to answer that question.” Then, he answered it. Firmly. “I’m playing here and now to get to the next round. I’m not worried about the history of whatever, and the series of whatever. We were here to beat the team that was in front of us to move on. And however you want to put it in the book and put it in whatever chapter, we won this series, and we’re moving on, and we’re happy about that.” They should be beyond happy. The Spurs turned this series into an extended practice. They found rhythm they had lost at the end of the regular season, giving Tiago Splitter and Boris Diaw maybe a week to get healthy, and this will help everyone from Mr. Pop to Baynes. For when the real playoffs begin.
• Bill Plaschke of the Los Angeles Times: Superman took a powder. A cornerstone crumbled. The dude just left early. "This is like a nightmare," said Howard later. "This is like a bad dream and I couldn't wake up out of it." Here's how that nightmare can end. The Lakers don't re-sign it. The Lakers walk out on Dwight Howard the way he walked out on them. The Lakers shake themselves awake after watching Howard's pathetic performance Sunday and have the courage to move forward without him. Interestingly, just as the Lakers' phony glitter disappeared, their strongest fabric arrived. Moments after Howard's ejection, with the team trailing by 21 points, yeah, you guessed it, Kobe Bryant showed up. Making his first public appearance since tearing his Achilles' tendon just over two weeks ago, Bryant hobbled out to the chair behind the bench. The crowd stood and roared for the first time all afternoon. Bryant sat there the rest of the game, cheering and coaching. This franchise may be a mess, but it's still Hollywood's mess. … Even with Howard, they would be mediocre next season, so why not play without him while waiting for the contractual freedom in the summer of 2014 that could put them back in the championship race. Granted, once Bryant retires, the Lakers will never again be led by such a great closer. But you'd think they'll eventually be able to find someone actually willing to finish.
• Joseph Goodman of The Miami Herald: Here’s how you close out a series: 17 points in a four-minute stretch during the fourth quarter, including four three-pointers and a three-point play by LeBron James. Then, for good measure, a raucous dunk by James to cap it all off. James’ powerful, emphatic basket with 2:41 left in the fourth quarter gave the Heat a 16-point lead, sent Dwyane Wade out of his chair in celebration and sent the Heat into the second-round of the playoffs with a four-game sweep of the Milwaukee Bucks. The Heat defeated the Bucks 88-77 to close out the series. It all seemed almost too easy. The Heat held the Bucks to 85.3 points per game, and for many of the players, including veterans such as Ray Allen, Mike Miller and Shane Battier, it was the first series sweep of their careers. “Sweeping is the toughest thing you ever do,” said Udonis Haslem, who had 13 points and five rebounds. “Teams’ lives are on the line, and they might understand that they might not come back and win the whole series, but guys want to get one because it’s a pride thing. Nobody wants to get swept.” It was the Heat’s first sweep since the 2005 playoffs when Haslem and Wade swept through the New Jersey Nets and then the Washington Wizards in the first two rounds of the playoffs before losing to the Pistons in seven. The Heat now must await the conclusion of the first-round series between Chicago and the Nets — the new Brooklyn Nets — before focusing on its next opponent. The first game of the second round can begin no sooner than Saturday.
• Gery Woelfel of The Journal Times: Let’s play a Milwaukee Bucks edition of the game “Should he stay … or should he go?” After being swept from the playoffs Sunday by the reigning champion Miami Heat, most card-carrying members of Bucks Nation would like to see a thorough housecleaning of their favorite team, starting at the top with owner Herb Kohl to the bottom with the video coordinators. Can’t blame them, either. The Bucks had a most despicable season. From the beginning of training camp, when a disengaged Scott Skiles was coaching the team, to the middle of the season when they traded talented young forward Tobias Harris to Orlando for perhaps a rent-a-player in J.J. Redick to Sunday’s season-ending game, there has been non-stop turmoil surrounding the organization. You don’t have to possess telepathic powers to realize heads are going to roll. It’s just a question of how many of them. Rest assured, this offseason figures to be infinitely more intriguing and entertaining than this season. So, who should stay and who should go?
• Mitch Lawrence of the New York Daily News: Maybe now J.R. Smith will think twice about swinging an elbow to clear out an opponent in the heat of a playoff battle. This was the best way for Smith to learn his lesson: The hard way, with the Knicks missing him dearly in their 97-90 overtime loss in Game 4 on Sunday at TD Garden. And how is this for justice? Jason Terry, the guy Smith sent to the parquet with his blatant elbow on Friday in Game 3, prompting the NBA to suspend the Sixth Man Award winner, outscored the Knicks by himself in the overtime session, 9-6, to keep the Celtics alive. With Smith, the Knicks are clearly superior to the wounded Celtics, a No. 7 seed trying to make do without Rajon Rondo in this first-round series.But without the 16 points that Smith has averaged in this series, the Knicks fell behind by 20 and didn’t have enough shot-makers to match Terry in overtime in losing for only the third time in their last 22 games. Smith will be back Wednesday for Game 5 at the Garden. “I don’t care if Patrick Ewing comes back for them,” Terry said. “We’re going to treat it like a Game 7.”
• Gary Washburn of The Boston Globe: There was no question, if this was Jason Terry’s final appearance at TD Garden as a Celtic, if the team decides to include him in an expected slew of offseason moves, he was going to exit with brashness. So on the fast break in overtime Sunday against the New York Knicks, when he could have penetrated to the hoop for a layup or drawn a foul, Terry pulled up a foot behind the 3-point line, unleashing a long-range shot with supreme confidence. The result? Swish. Swishes have been rare this season for Terry, signed to a three-year deal to essentially replace Ray Allen. He has turned out to be a defensive liability and erratic shooter. Yet, when the Knicks were stopping the Celtics’ halfcourt offense like Patrick Roy circa 1993, the Terry of old stepped in, scoring the final 9 points as the Celtics lived at least one more game with a 97-90 win. … Sunday was vintage Terry, the one who peppered the Miami Heat with jumpers in the 2011 NBA Finals, the fireball who plays with fearlessness, not anxiety, who approaches the moment with vigor, not hesitancy. “He was great,” Rivers said.
• Mark Bradley of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: When we speak of all the things Josh Smith can do, Saturday’s Game 3 is what we mean. On a night when losing would have equaled cetain elimination, he scored 14 points, took six rebounds, made six assists and limited Paul George, the star of Games 1 and 2, to four baskets. Smith wasn’t the statistical standout – Al Horford had 26 points and 16 rebounds – but he was surely the Hawks’ MVP. Sometimes it seems as if we’ve spoken of no other Hawk for almost a decade, but Game 3 offered yet another reason why the Josh Smith conversation remains ongoing. When he’s good, he’s really good. (And he has been really good rather often, or else we’d never have noticed him in the first place.) When he’s not, we ask why. Then we point to the 3-pointers and say, “That’s why.” If Smith had never discovered the 3-point shot, he’d be one of the most admired players in the sport. Mike Woodson had all but disabused him of the urge to launch; in his final season under his first professional coach, Smith tried only seven treys. In three seasons since succeeding Woodson, Larry Drew has allowed Smith to keep doing the thing he does worst, and that has undercut the greater effect. Think about it. Has there ever been a player of such skill and such seasoning about whom there remains such a kerfuffle over shot selection?
• Bob Kravitz of The Indianapolis Star: The Pacers, these Pacers, are not the stay-out-all-night, party-hearty, go-hard-or-go-home types. So why can’t the Indiana Pacers, losers of 12 straight games in Atlanta, beat this ordinary Hawks team on the road? Why can’t they come into Philips Arena, which is usually three-quarters filled with fans who’d rather be watching football, and take down a team that will be dismantled at season’s end? It’s understandable to lose 11 straight in San Antonio, as the Pacers have. It’s not understandable to lose 12 consecutive times in Atlanta, where the Hawks have been beacons of mediocrity over the years. … If the Pacers accomplished anything during their gruesome film session Sunday — Roy Hibbert called it “an airing of grievances” — it was reaching the conclusion that most of their problems were self-inflicted. While the Hawks were playing with abject desperation, the Pacers were just showing up. Asked his biggest disappointment after watching the game and then watching the tape, coach Frank Vogel didn’t hesitate. “Our offensive disposition,” he said.
• Berry Tramel of The Oklahoman: Kevin Martin says he doesn't deal in pressure. Doesn't acknowledge its existence. Fair enough. Let's use a different term. Responsibility. It's Martin's responsibility, more so than any other Thunder, to patch the scoring hole left by the injured Russell Westbrook. … Martin has not had a good series against the Rockets. Three games, 11-of-35 shooting, 38 total points. But we should have seen it coming. Martin arrived in the famous James Harden trade on Oct. 27 and was effective immediately. In 17 November games, Martin averaged 15.9 points. But his scoring has gone down every month, and the Thunder's reliance on Martin has gone down, too. In November games, Martin averaged 14.1 usages, which are possessions ended by a particular player, either by shot, foul shot or turnover. By March, that average was down to 12.2 and in April, 10.8. … Scotty Brooks, who has been preaching that no one can replace Westbrook's production, admitted he needs more out of Martin and even offered strategy that could help. “He scores better when he's moving,” Brooks said. “We gotta keep moving him.” If Martin can't be more productive with Westbrook gone, Martin will be moving, all right. Moving on.
• David Barron of the Houston Chronicle: With the Rockets’ playoff fate against the Oklahoma City Thunder hanging by a thread, coach Kevin McHale’s most important Game 4 decision might be whether he’s better off with a limited Jeremy Lin or a healthier but older combination of Francisco Garcia, Carlos Delfino and Aaron Brooks. Lin, who scored two points and was limited to 18½ minutes Saturday night by the chest bruise he suffered in Game 2, underwent therapy and ran on the treadmill Sunday while his teammates had a brief shootaround after watching film from Oklahoma City’s 104-101 win in Game 3. The Thunder lead the series 3-0, and no NBA team has come back from three down to win a best-of-seven playoff series. Garcia (18 points), Delfino (11 points) and Brooks (four points in nine minutes) in concert with Patrick Beverley had encouraging moments in Lin’s absence in Game 3, and McHale must decide how much Lin can contribute to that rotation Monday at Toyota Center. “That’s a big decision for us,” McHale said. “He couldn’t do a lot of stuff (in Game 3). We’re going to have to wait and see. It doesn’t do any good for him to play if he can’t help us. We’ll see.”
• Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times: Considering what the Bulls did to the Nets in their Game 4 come-from-behind victory in triple-overtime Saturday, there’s no need for such comments to be off the record. The players know that when it comes down to heart, toughness, will and playing team basketball when it matters most, the Nets just aren’t in the same class. “From my perspective, I think so,’’ Bulls power forward Taj Gibson said, when asked if the Bulls are just a tougher team than the Nets. “I mean, we had a lot of injuries this year. For the last three years we’ve had a lot of injuries, and we’ve always been able to overcome the injuries. We have guys that can step up on any given night and play 48 [minutes], play whatever is needed. That’s the difference. We have guys that are ready to step into that moment, and it shows.’’ “That moment’’ the Nets needed guys? Missing in action. It started with C.J. Watson missing a dunk with 3:16 left in the fourth quarter, which would have put the Nets ahead by 16. Before that miss, Brooklyn had been shooting 60.6 percent from the field. After that dunk? The Nets did what they seem to do best: They shrunk.
• Roderick Boone of Newsday: Rather than rewinding all the footage of their epic fourth-quarter collapse in Saturday's triple-overtime loss to the Bulls, the Nets probably felt better off simply burying it in the backyard like an old soup bone. "We won't watch the last three minutes and say, 'Look, we missed this free throw, we turned the ball over, we did A, B, C and D,' " interim coach P.J. Carlesimo said Sunday. "I think they are very acutely aware of the mistakes that we made and I don't think we need that for tomorrow." Beaten up mentally and physically after being on the wrong side of what many see as an instant classic, the Nets are forced to pick up the pieces quickly heading into Game 5 of their first-round matchup with Chicago at Barclays Center Monday night. They're trailing 3-1 in the series, and there's no time to dwell on how they never could seal the deal Saturday despite appearing to seize control of the game in the fourth quarter. No time to lament their slew of mistakes. They're on the brink of calling in for early tee times in a couple of days if they can't find a way to upend the Bulls and help erase those nightmarish memories of 48 hours earlier. "Disappointment is probably not strong enough, but an extremely tough way to lose," Carlesimo said. "But when it's all said and done, that's what it was. It's a loss, and having a day in between is good. We have to move away from the disappointment and channel it.”

A who's who of NBA players are on the shelf. A team made of Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose, Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash, Rajon Rondo, Danny Granger, David Lee, Danilo Gallinari, Amare Stoudemire, and Lou Williams would contend. Instead all those players and more are out for all or most of the playoffs.

Asking what caused all those injuries takes you on a bit of wild goose chase. There have always been injuries in all sports; I doubt we'll ever know if these are connected in some way or just a random and unlucky collection of events.

But there is a better question with more of an answer: Are there things we can do to reduce the likelihood of injuries in the future? That's what Working Bodies is all about. And that's where the research is not crystal clear, but has been getting incredibly busy.

Violent moments

Russell Westbrook was injured on a play where Patrick Beverley went all out to help his team win -- even if it was both a long shot to work, and obviously creating one of the highest risk moments of Westbrook's night.

In the aftermath many have talked about Beverley's intent -- as if it's a important to know if he wanted to injure Westbrook or not. I say let's skip that debate. We'll never know his intent, and who cares anyway. Let's talk risk. Risk we know. All by himself Beverley created a moment that in retrospect is costing Westbrook, the Thunder and NBA fans a bunch of performances that were dear to all of them.

If I roll a bowling ball down the corridor of my office building, I may well hurt somebody. I might do it only with the most fun of intentions. But if you manage the building ... who cares? What matters is I don't do it again. What matters is I value my co-workers safety a little more.

The NBA would like Beverley to place a little higher value on Westbrook's safety. Forget what's dirty or not, or unknowable things like who's thinking evil thoughts. What's likely to cause injuries? Let's reduce that. Let's get players thinking, just a little more, about making sure they don't end each other's seasons. That's where plays like Beverley's, as well as blows to the head, and any plays that risk players hitting their heads on the court -- all things we now know are more dangerous than we ever thought -- ought to be the kinds of things the rules and the referees aggressively discourage.

Players going all-out to help their teams win will always have their supporters. It's a macho world. You won't get NBA legends lining up to support the NBA on this kind of change. That's fine. But if you're in David Stern's office, it's a problem that a player could make a dangerous decision like that, reckless enough to possibly end the season of the most resilient player in NBA history, and not even be called for a common foul, let alone a flagrant or an ejection.

These violent high-risk moments could be much more scarce. Many are intentional, which means they're not inevitable or part of the game, and would be easy to stop if people wanted to. Much of the time playing with little care about injuring others helps your team. If you ran the league, wouldn't you have to fix that?

A marathon

There's another lingering question for the league to consider: Are player spending too much time exhausted, and does that put them at excessive risk to get injured?

A little detour into running: If you train to run 400 meters -- that's one lap of the track -- training will include some 100-meter sprints and some mile-or-longer runs. Training works like that, more or less. You attack from all angles. Train for a five kilometer (3.1 mile) race and you can bet you'll do some sprints, as well as some runs are much longer than 3.1 miles.

But then there's the marathon. It's 26.2 miles. And if you train for a marathon, almost no matter what training regimen you use, you'll never be asked to run more than 20 miles.

 

Pretty weird, huh? You want to do five miles fast as you can, you'll sometimes run ten. You want to do ten miles fast as you can, and training involves regular runs of 12 or 15.

Race 26.2, though, and even at elite levels, chances are race day will take you further than any other day of the year. Almost all the experts agree on this.

And the reasoning is simple: Get a lot of people running 25 miles, and you'll get a lot of people injured. It just happens that way. There's some kind of real limit around 20 miles. Push past that, and maybe some outliers can handle it, but for the broad population it's just courting trouble.

Marathoners have known about this for decades and have long been skipping the monster training runs.

Meanwhile, it's looking like the 82-game NBA regular season might work like one monster training run.

Exhaustion does weird stuff

From a 2010 Brad Stenger article published by the Medill School of Journalism:

Gregory Dupont from the University of Lille's Laboratory of Human Movement Studies in France monitored injuries during the 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 UEFA Champions League seasons. He found the injury rate was six times higher when players played two matches per week versus one match per week. He published the study in the American Journal of Sports Medicine last April.

During the regular season NBA teams play 2-4 games per week and travel longer distances than a typical European soccer team.

Researchers have been putting little heart rate and motion sensors on soccer players in Europe. What they've been finding is something not unlike what marathon training regimens have long known: Get somebody exhausted, and their likelihood of injury skyrockets, even for the kinds of injuries you might think have nothing to do with fatigue.

When you're fresh, your soft tissue has a certain elasticity. Your muscles and tendons can cope with a normal amount of upset, like say, another player bashing into you while you're trying to call a timeout. Also, your own ability to be balanced and coordinated -- now we're talking nervous system stuff -- is good when you're in your comfort zone. On top of all that, when you're training a comfortable amount, it's a cinch to maintain good form.

Get yourself good and worn out, though, and a lot of those systems that keep you safe go away. I started training for marathons a few years ago, and the first time I ran 18 miles, I felt great most of the time, but with about two miles left things changed. I started to feel mighty brittle, like if somebody were to push me ever-so-gently from the side I would simply topple over. Not to mention I was bleary-eyed, imbalanced, with ragged form, and making poor decisions. Where you used to have these living, breathing, expanding, contracting things called muscles it feels like you now have old rope.

It's more than a little scary, in that state, to encounter the tiniest obstacles. A bumpy sidewalk, a twig in the street, a car that doesn't give you much room ... any and all can put you in peril. You have little ability to adjust to life's little challenges.

Research suggests you're an off-the-charts injury risk at that moment. And it feels like it.

In soccer they've been finding that same stuff. Exhausted players evidently lack normal range of motion, balance and coordination. An impact, fall or collision that might not injure a rested person might injure someone who has been going hard every day for months. In soccer, experts working with this theory have, amazingly, predicted injuries before they happen. Basically, they can look at who's running ragged out there, who's deep in the red zone of exhaustion. And then they have often been correct -- even though the injury ends up coming on a fluky-seeming play.

Word is spreading

Increasingly, NBA teams are tuning into the perils of exhaustion. One of those soccer experts who brags about predicting injuries is Italian Jean-Pierre Meerseman, who spoke at the Global Sports Management Summit in May in San Francisco. Many NBA bigwigs were in the audience, and they report he blew their minds with tales of knowing who'd be injured before the injury happened.

One NBA front office guy who tracks the work of Meerseman and others says he's increasingly coming to the view that the best approach for stars is to spend as much time as possible with their feet up. He's thinking the winning approach, given the rigorous schedule, might be to forego everything else, as in every practice all season, as well as every minute of play that wasn't essential.

A company called Apollo MIS, which recently merged with STATS, does some of that European-soccer style exhaustion tracking, and has some NBA clients. One of their most enthusiastic is the Spurs ... the very team which leads the league every year in intentionally sitting stars. A game when the schedule has been harsh on them? Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker sit. Ditto for any fourth quarter when the game isn't close. Even as some claim they've found the fountain of youth for Duncan and the like, they've even gotten in trouble with the league for it.

But the way the data is shaping up, it seems likely the league is going to face some tough choices: Change the schedule in a profound way to allow for meaningful rest and real in-season training. Or stare down the barrel of a growing body of evidence suggesting one of the things causing NBA injuries are decisions made by the NBA.

• Ethan J. Skolnick of the Palm Beach Post: Heat forward LeBron James finished second this week in voting for defensive player of the year, and he wasn’t happy about not winning. “It sucks,” said James, who never has won the award although he has been MVP three times. “It sucks. It sucks.” Memphis center Marc Gasol received the trophy after finishing 14 first-place votes ahead of James … James was asked if his strong candidacy for other awards — notably the MVP — hurt his chances. “I don’t know,” he said. “It definitely sucks, though. Finishing second? Who wants to finish second?” The advanced statistics show that James was slightly more dominant defensively last season. Does James believe he did his best work this season? “Probably,” James said. “I mean, I guard everybody on the floor. I don’t know if there’s one player in NBA history who’s guarded one through five (positions).”
• Gery Woelfel of The Journal Times: Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings, who are perceived as the team’s best players, were throwing up brick after brick in games not to remember. Ellis, who can opt out of his contract after the season and is hoping to hit the jackpot as an unrestricted free agent, misfired on seven of his nine field-goal attempts. Jennings, who also hopes to pad his bank account this summer as a restricted free agent, was equally inept. He made a mere five shots in 15 attempts. For the series, Jennings has connected on 16 of 50 shots – a putrid 32 percent. This isn’t what Jennings had envisioned for himself or his team. If you recall, it was Jennings who, several weeks ago, brazenly said he wanted to take on the Heat in the playoffs. Jennings said he liked how the Bucks matched up. Then, just days before the commencement of the playoffs, Jennings did a Muhammad Ali impersonation and, brazenly again, predicted the Bucks would shock the world and win this series in six games. Jennings and Co. will be incredibly lucky to stretch this series to six games, which it most assuredly won’t. Jennings isn’t the sole reason the Bucks are in such a serious quandary. There are plenty of culprits. Ellis, for instance, managed seven points in Game 3, well under his team-leading 19.2 point regular-season production. … “I know my head is still high,” Jennings said. “I’m going to play until the buzzer is over. This team has to stay together.” For, in all likelihood, one more game.
• K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune: Decades from now, when Tom Thibodeau's coaching legacy has been fully written, a Chicago fan may stumble across the box score from the Bulls' 79-76 victory over the Nets and smile knowingly, a nod to Thibodeau's reputation as a defensive tactician. A young fan in Brooklyn might peruse the same sheet and, much more simply, scream, "Man, the Nets stink!" The truth, at least on Thursday night at the United Center, existed in both schools of thought. The present reality — for fans of both teams everywhere — is the Bulls grabbed a 2-1 lead in the best-of-seven series after a shockingly inept first-half stretch from the Nets that negated their late rally and the Bulls' almost equally shocking collapse. After a strong start, the Nets somehow missed 25 of 26 first-half shots and scored four points in 13 minutes, 45 seconds bridging the first and second quarters. Still, the Nets whittled a 17-point, fourth-quarter deficit to a one-possession game and lost only when C.J. Watson's open look at a tying 3-pointer at the buzzer missed everything under a late contest by Joakim Noah. "We did what we had to do," Carlos Boozer said. "In the playoffs, you have to win in different ways. Nothing is perfect."
• Stefan Bondy of the New York Daily News: Even after the Nets’ shooting went cold, they had a chance to reverse the course of a rough week and salvage another brickfest. But like most everything the Nets hoisted up Saturday, the shot from C. J. Watson was off. Waaaay off. “Did I think it was good? No,” Watson said. “It felt good. I got a good look.” Watson’s air ball at the buzzer of a 79-76 defeat to the Bulls wasn’t the problem. After the Nets shot 35% – missing 25 of 26 during a stretch in the first and second quarters – they were lucky to be sniffing Chicago. But Watson’s potential game-tying shot off a broken inbounds play sealed Brooklyn’s current reality: the most expensive roster in franchise history is trailing the series 2-1, closer to getting bounced in the first round. “We got to win on Saturday (Game 4),” Deron Williams said. “That’s it. We’re very desperate. That’s the perfect word. We need to play with some desperation.”
• Ron Higgins of The Commercial-Appeal: During the individual pregame warmups, Zach Randolph was the last of the Grizzlies to leave the floor. He stayed extra long, working on his post moves, flipping in shots from both sides of the basket. Then, he went out and did it to the Clippers. The veteran forward had a turn-back-the-clock performance, going for 27 points and 11 rebounds to lead the Griz to a 94-82 game 3 victory in a first-round Western Conference series. The win cut the Clips series lead to 2-1 with game 4 set Saturday afternoon in FedExForum. … Randolph n his night: “Most definitely I wanted to come out and start aggressively. I wanted to be quick, hit my first few shots and stay aggressive. You know they double-teamed me, triple-teamed me, so just go fast.” On the wrestling with Blake Griffin: “It’s a physical game out there. Rough play is part of the game. You take it how it comes.”
• T.J. Simers of the Los Angeles Times: If you want to insist on remaining positive, this game proved only one thing: The value of the home-court advantage. And the Clippers still have it. OK, so maybe it also demonstrated what a difference former Clipper Zach Randolph can make when he's aggressive and free of early foul trouble. Randolph scored 27 points and had 11 rebounds, while his wrestling mate Blake Griffin had 16 points but only two rebounds. "It was probably my fault," said Chris Paul when asked what went wrong. And no reason to argue. He had eight points but also five turnovers, and the other Clippers followed his lead. "I think [the Grizzlies] played desperate," said Chauncey Billups, after the announcement that for their own security, all players must take the bus to the hotel, which is located across the street from the arena. "Their season was on the line tonight, and it took us too long to adjust to that physicality," Billups said. "It's time for us to show a little urgency." Amen. And does he understand a loss Saturday means the Clippers will definitely have to return to this crime-infested city? "We do understand that," said Billups. And I sure wish I could walk faster.
• Jim Baumbach of Newsday: No matter how appealing a scenario it was, the Knicks tried hard Thursday to avoid the temptation of envisioning themselves going up to Boston, winning twice and sweeping the Celtics. That, they insisted, is too far down the line to be thinking about right now. Instead, the Knicks insisted their focus is only on Game 3 Friday night, and with good reason. With this best-of-seven first-round series moving 200 miles north up I-95, the Knicks expect to be greeted by a more determined Celtics team in front of one of the NBA's more raucous crowds. At Celtics practice Thursday, Paul Pierce described the Celtics as "a desperate team now," which is exactly what the Knicks said they are preparing for after taking the first two games in New York. "I expect a team that's going to fight, make some adjustments," Carmelo Anthony said after practice. "They're home, so a lot is going to go into that emotionally, physically. We have to be prepared for whatever they're going to throw at us and just build off these last two games." Anthony said he would be "super-duper-happy-excited" if the Knicks won two and completed the sweep in Boston but stressed the importance of not looking too far ahead.
• Gary Washburn of The Boston Globe: The goal Friday at TD Garden is to simply win Game 3, to inject a hint of doubt and insecurity into the minds of the New York Knicks, who have played two rather average games yet walked away with resounding victories. While Celtics coach Doc Rivers has lauded the composition of his team, even after the season-ending injury to Rajon Rondo, eventually he understood that it was flawed, and the cracks from lacking a floor leader are evident. Using Paul Pierce as a point forward not only leads him into more unforced errors because he is playing out of position, it hinders his ability to defend and post up when he is trying to start the offense. Rondo’s value has increased exponentially over the past few weeks, as the Celtics have realized through trial and error that Avery Bradley is not a true point guard; that issue should be put to rest for coming seasons. The impressive contributions from New York’s Raymond Felton in this series only emphasize the Celtics’ weakness at point guard and how Rondo’s absence has forced several players to adjust their roles.
• Mark Kiszla of The Denver Post: The sweet myth perpetuated by the Nuggets is they have no stars. So Iguodala got a ticket to the Summer Olympics as a member of Team USA by being the ninth caller of a radio contest? His salary of $14.7 million ranks among the top 25 in the NBA. Imagine the griping and moaning if the highest-paid player on the roster of a Nuggets team stumbling out the postseason gate were Carmelo Anthony, rather than Iguodala. This much is certain: If Josh Kroenke learned anything about the basketball business from his father, Stan, it's that it makes zero financial sense to pay a premium price for a team unable to do damage in the NBA playoffs. Facing a little adversity against Golden State hardly qualifies as a hardwood crisis for the Nuggets. But now we will find out if Iguodala is a money player. If he is not, then you can bet Iguodala will be making his money somewhere else in the league, if he truly believes his worth is anywhere near $15 million per year. Beat the Warriors, Mr. Iguodala. Or be thinking of the next NBA city you might want to call home. No pressure.
• Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News: Stephen Curry is still on the big seesaw, even now at this most important and exasperating moment of his career. Happy, then hurt, great and then gimpy. Game 2 glory in Denver to tie the series 1-1 and then ... A left ankle sprain that kept Curry out of practice on Thursday and put his status in some doubt for Friday's Game 3 at Oracle Arena. … He said he couldn't have played if the game was Thursday, but Curry added that the team's careful approach to his ankle injuries in the last few regular seasons leaves more options open to get healthy quick now. That includes maybe (for the first time) taking a painkilling shot or two. Curry's right ankle is the one that has required multiple surgeries; he has rolled his left one, but never has needed surgery for it. "Just trying to manage the swelling and hopefully get it right by (Friday) night," Curry said. Still, after twisting the ankle during his 30-point outburst in Game 2, returning to action, and then suffering from a lot of swelling afterward, there's no way to know if Curry can be close to his usual self any time soon. The greatest players, though, figure out how to get through something like this when everything revolves around them. And the Warriors' playoff hopes absolutely revolve around Curry. And now, his recovery.
• Mike Monroe of the San Antonio Express-News: The most underrated factor in a 58-win Spurs season that surprised many was their 79.1 percent free-throw shooting, most accurate of the Gregg Popovich era. Through the first two games, their success at the line has continued: 31 of 39 foul shots (79.5 percent). Meanwhile, the Lakers have made only 25 of 37 (67.6), and Popovich hasn’t yet gone to full Hack-A-Howard. One of the league’s worst foul shooters, Howard has gone to the line only 12 times, making only six of those. Making free throws is a bigger deal on the road than at home. If the Spurs want to take that unbeatable 3-0 lead, they must to their part to keep the foul line differential going.
• Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Daily News: The Lakers have tried nearly every tactic in overcoming how the Spurs have defended Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol. They've force-fed the ball inside. That led to turnovers. The Lakers have taken outside shots. Many have fallen short. They've kept passing the ball in hopes of throwing the Spurs off-balance. That just wasted the shot clock. So with the Lakers entering today's Game 3 of their first-round series against San Antonio nursing a 0-2 deficit, Howard has tried another strategy. The Lakers center openly accused the Spurs, namely Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter, of flopping when he was called for two offensive fouls in the Lakers' Game 2 loss Wednesday in San Antonio. "I got a lot of my fouls on the offensive end just posting up," Howard said. "I thought the flopping rule was going to be put in this year. But I guess that's up for next season." The NBA announced harsher penalties during the postseason for repeat offenders, including a possible suspension after the fifth transgression.

• Mike Monroe of the San Antonio Express-News: Tim Duncan’s sixth-place finish in the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year voting sparked debate in the Spurs’ locker room about the difficulty media members face in choosing a winner for that award. Duncan blocked shots at a career-high per-minute rate and had the second-highest average of his 16-year career at 2.65 rejections per game. He has never finished higher than third in voting. (Grizzlies center Marc Gasol was announced the winner Wednesday.) Manu Ginobili offered a solution: Let the players vote for an award that is nearly impossible to quantify. “It is the toughest award they give away because players don’t vote,” Ginobili said. “It’s the player that (goes) against other players who know. Sometimes the best rebounder is not the best defender; or the best in steals is not a great defender. He just gambles a lot. “It could be (an award for players to choose), but it’s been going on for so many years. It’s not that I’m complaining, but probably we do know better than the media.” Duncan shrugged off the fact he never has won the award. Worse, he said, was the fact Bruce Bowen never won the award during his days spearheading the Spurs’ defense. “Now that was messed up,” he said. Ginobili believed Duncan deserved a higher finish than sixth.
• Vincent Bonsignore of the Los Angeles Daily News: Game 2 of their first-round Western Conference playoff series against the Spurs bore little resemblance to Game 1, but the outcome was a spitting image in the Lakers' 102-91 loss. And it leaves the Lakers in a quandary much more complicated than just the 0-2 hole they find themselves in as they limp home to Los Angeles. They hobbled onto their charter flight Wednesday unsure who their biggest foe is: The Spurs, or an unforgiving run of luck that continues to wreak havoc on their minds and body. Not having Bryant was bad enough against the deep, talented Spurs. But then Jodie Meeks went down in Game 1 with an ankle sprain, Steve Blake suffered a strained hamstring Wednesday and Steve Nash was so banged up after playing Games 1 and 2 he'll undergo another epidural Friday. "It hurts to see guys go down," Lakers center Dwight Howard conceded. And the way they were hobbling around the locker room, you wonder if they'll have enough players to field a full team in Game 3. … Now the series shifts back to Los Angeles, the Lakers can only hope playing at home provides the necessary lift needed to ensure they make it back to San Antonio for Game 5. That might be wishful thinking, especially with a depleted Lakers roster shrinking by the day. But it's all the Lakers got. Unless Kobe Bryant decides to lift the gag order and provide some answers. Or better yet, suit up.
• Darnell Mayberry of The Oklahoman: There are tons of takeaways from this one. My biggest is the Thunder’s crunch time performance. This was the first time in the post-James Harden era that the Thunder has had to grind out a playoff victory. It won’t be the last. And remember, crunch time is when many believed the Thunder would miss Harden most. But not tonight it didn’t. OKC went 4-for-7 in the final five minutes. All four buckets were assisted. The Thunder was 4-for-6 from the foul line. Five different players scored. That’s about as good as it gets down the stretch. “I think all season long we’ve been doing a great job of closing out big games and trying to prepare ourselves for moments like this,” said Russell Westbrook. “And I thought tonight we all stuck together.” Only part of what Westbrook said is true. The Thunder has been preparing for these moments all season. But OKC technically hasn’t been doing a great job of closing out big games as Westbrook suggests. The Thunder had just eight games decided by three points or less in the regular season. OKC went 3-5 in those games. Each passing loss triggered questions and sometimes doubt about how the Thunder would perform this postseason without Harden.
• Jerome Solomon of the Houston Chronicle: But watching this series hasn’t changed anyone’s opinion that the Rockets will beat the Thunder four times which is what it would take to win the series. That said the discussion over the next couple of days should be about how the Rockets pulled off a surprise and whether they can withstand the Thunder roaring back with a vengeance in game 3. Instead, a gritty effort Wednesday night went to waste and Houston comes back home trailing the seven-game series 2-0 after a 105-102 loss. Game 3 at Toyota Center could provide an energy that might propel the Rockets over the hump in a game but you get the feeling that this was one that got away. A 25-2 fourth-quarter run including 16 straight points, to take a 95-91 speaks to the Rockets’ resilience and toughness. This is a team with heart. Maybe they play a simple style with a straightforward coach who doesn’t try to trick anybody, but that’s OK. As we’ve said from the start of the season, this team is fun to watch. Tonight was no exception. No, they can’t beat OKC four times in the next five games. But at least they don’t carry the folding gene. Patrick Beverley, inserted into the starting lineup to take some pressure off Jeremy Lin and to chase Russell Westbrook, was forced into 41 minutes of action when Lin went down with a chest injury. Beverley made a huge difference.
• Mike Wells of The Indianapolis Star: The Hawks failed miserably in their bid to be physical and punk the Pacers defensively. Now the Pacers are headed to Atlanta with a 2-0 lead in the best-of-seven NBA playoff series. … Game 3 is Saturday in Atlanta, where the Pacers have lost 11 straight to the Hawks. … It was no secret that the Hawks were going to play more physical on Wednesday. All you had to do was pay attention to what Hawks coach Larry Drew said after Game 1 on Sunday and during the two days since to know that. Drew even tried to pull a Larry Bird (the S-O-F-T line in the playoffs last season) and motivate his players by saying they got manhandled in Game 1. The Hawks kept their same starting lineup, but Drew used physical players DeShawn Stevenson, Ivan Johnson and Dahntay Jones earlier in the game. The Pacers could have easily fallen for the Hawks’ trap of getting up in their airspace and greeting cuts through the lane with some kind of body contact. The Pacers are used to playing physically, so they embraced what Atlanta was trying to do.
• Jeff Schultz of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Not Kyle Kover's series: Korver needed to be a factor offensively in this series for the Hawks, but he hasn't been -- at least not in a good way. In the two games, he has been limited to a total of 14 points on 5-of-17 shooting (4 of 13 from 3-point range). Maybe he's worn down or maybe it's just the Pacers' defense, but the Hawks don't have enough scorers to beat the Pacers if Korver isn't hitting. Whistle blowers: Before giving this statistic, it's clear that the Pacers have done more to draw fouls than the Hawks. However, these are some of the numbers that the Hawks will point to when they complain about officiating: They have been called for 50 fouls and three technicals (plus a technical for defensive three seconds), while the Pacers have been whistled for 38 fouls and no technicals. Indiana is 51 for 63 from the free throw line, the Hawks 18 for 34 -- a difference of 33 points. Josh Smith's early foul trouble Wednesday limited him to 20 minutes. That can't happen.
• Broderick Turner of the Los Angeles Times: They are the two shortest players on the court, yet 6-foot Chris Paul and 6-1 Mike Conley have perhaps the biggest impact there. They are the point guards who direct and make the all-important decisions for their teams, Paul operating for the Clippers and Conley running the show for the Memphis Grizzlies. And in the first two NBA Western Conference playoff games between the teams, the Paul-Conley matchup has been intriguing to watch. Paul's steely play has helped the Clippers open a 2-0 lead in the best-of-seven series. Conley's performance in Game 2 probably has given the Grizzlies hope in a series that shifts to Memphis for Game 3 on Thursday night. … To no one's surprise, Paul has raised his level of play in the playoffs. He's averaging 23.5 points on 57.1% shooting in the first two games, 8.0 assists, 3.0 rebounds and 1.5 steals in 34.5 minutes per game. During the regular season, Paul averaged 16.9 points on 48.1% shooting, 9.7 assists, 3.7 rebounds and a league-best 2.41 steals. … Paul is an All-Star and a most-valuable-player candidate. Conley, on the other hand, seems to go unnoticed for his skill set. But he has improved his play in the playoffs. He is averaging 20 points on 48.3% shooting and 7.0 assists in 36 minutes in the first two games.
• Ronald Tillery of The Commercial-Appeal: The Griz trail 2-0 in their best-of-seven, first-round playoff series with the Clippers, and they aren’t in the mood for much talking. This is a group that appears more focused on the work that needs to be done to climb back in this series. And the Griz insist that their confidence hasn’t been shaken. “There’s a sense of urgency,” point guard Mike Conley said. “It isn’t do or die. That’ll be if they win Game 3. Last game we came out and adjusted pretty well. One or two plays go our way and we win Game 2. We just need more of the same effort.” It’s true that the Griz need more of the same in terms of the energy, intensity and improved performances from key players they enjoyed in Game 2. But there are a few other areas that need shoring up if the Griz are to grab a victory in one or both of their home games and send the series back to Los Angeles for a Game 5.
• Charles F. Gardner of the Journal Sentinel: Milwaukee Bucks guard Monta Ellis said it's a matter of composure. The young Bucks team is facing a cool, calm Miami Heat squad that won 66 games and is trying to repeat its 2012 NBA championship. So getting rattled at any point in the game can be disastrous, as the Bucks found out in a short span to open the fourth quarter in Game 2. Miami reeled off 12 straight points on the way to a 98-86 home-court victory as it grabbed a 2-0 lead in the best-of-seven Eastern Conference first-round series. Game 3 is Thursday night at the BMO Harris Bradley Center as the series resumes in Milwaukee. "The NBA is all about runs," Ellis said after a light Bucks workout session at the Cousins Center training facility Wednesday. "We know they're going to make a run. We've just got to be ready to counter their run and keep our poise and play together.” … Bucks center Larry Sanders played his first two postseason games in Miami and admitted he had to settle himself down. "It's a lot of emotions, a lot of nerves," Sanders said. "A lot of jitters, excitement. You just have to control it even more than in the (regular) season. But I had some good practice."
• Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald: Coach Erik Spoelstra on Wednesday explained the Heat’s renaissance on the road quite simply: “More consistent minutes defensively. The first 20 games, it wasn’t the championship hangover. There were a handful of gaps during the game that we were not defending the way we’re capable of.” “Last two or three months, it was more consistent,” Spoelstra continued. Here’s the evidence: During the 11-11 start on the road, the Heat allowed 97.4 points per game. In the 19 road games since, it’s 90.7. Steals and blocks have come with greater frequency. “We were pretty loose those first 22 games,” forward Shane Battier said. “The effort we gave just wasn’t good enough. [Since then], we’ve played harder, played with more concentration.” Surprisingly, the Heat is averaging slightly more turnovers on the road during the 18-1 roll than during the 11-11 stretch.
• Mike McGraw of the Daily Herald: The Bulls are great at bouncing back from adversity, but can they carry the momentum from Game 2 into a series lead? A miserable performance in Game 1 had the Bulls ready for redemption two days later. Can they deliver another strong performance Thursday without first getting slapped around? "I wouldn't call (Game 1) a wake-up call. I'd call it a dose of reality," Jimmy Butler said. "We tried to make it an offensive game and we didn't guard anybody." By now, there aren't many secrets between the teams. If the Bulls play their style of defense, they will cause problems. Brooklyn has the star power with Deron Williams, Brook Lopez and Joe Johnson to make it tough on any defense. Johnson missed Wednesday's practice because he's having issues with plantar fasciitis, but he's hoping to play in Game 3. There are bound to be some minor strategy adjustments. The Bulls focused in Game 2 on stopping Williams, who vowed that he wouldn't play that poorly again. "I think that's probably overblown," Thibodeau said of changing strategies. "The strengths of the team aren't going to change. We know how good they are and have to be ready.”
• George Willis of the New York Post: A key matchup tonight and for the remainder of the series is Nate Robinson versus Nets backup guard C.J. Watson. It’s a matchup that already drips bad blood. “I don’t like him and he don’t like me,” Robinson told ESPN Chicago, adding, “When you don’t like somebody and you’re playing against somebody, you want to destroy the other person. You want to shut that person down.” Robinson embraces his role as the antagonist, the pesky fly you can’t get rid of. He can get under an opponent’s skin with how he celebrates his points. The Bulls don’t mind. Not even coach Tom Thibodeau. “I tell people all the time that opposites attract,” Robinson said. “Coach is a drill sergeant type and I’m more less a free spirit who just goes with the wind. He likes to control everything. He lets me be me, but at the same time he lets me know if I stray off too far and what I need to know to get better.” A basketball series can be like an extended chess match. The Nets got the edge in Game 1, but the Bulls stepped up their defense and found a game-plan to shut down Deron Williams, who went from 22 points in Game 1 to eight points on 1-for-9 shooting in Game 2. Containing Williams remains one of the Bulls’ primary objectives tonight.

• Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News: OK, now it's time to prepare your ears for Game 3 at Oracle Arena on Friday night. But first, before I wade through all the incredible performances in the Warriors' 131-117 Game 2 victory in Denver, I've got two clear statements to make: This was Mark Jackson's finest hour as a coach. Young core, playing rookies, just lost one of their key players, switching up the rotation, a 6th seed on the road against a team that won 57 regular-season games and was 39-3 at home. … And secondly... * This was the best, most complete Warriors performance since Game 1 in Dallas, 2007, which singularly tilted the series towards the 8 seed and away from the 1 seed and the series never tilted back. We'll see if this victory leads to the Warriors taking the series. I think it's basically even-up from here on, but the Warriors had to get this game to have a shot at this series. … I think I'll still project Denver winning this in seven games. (I'm presuming Faried gets a lot quicker with two more off-days before Game 3 and as the series moves on.) But the Warriors just put a jolt into the NBA playoffs, which is always good. They're going to miss David Lee and they're probably not going to get too much further. But for now, the Warriors showed what's possible and how dangerous they can be.
• Woody Paige of The Denver Post: The Nuggets have a history of losing in the first round of the playoffs. They could be history again ... soon. The Warriors were making their own history Tuesday night, with torrid shooting, the best percentage (64.6) in a postseason game since 1991-92. The Nuggets were defenseless. The only way the Nuggets could lose was to let Stephen Curry go off. Curry scored 30, and the Warriors won easily. In Game 1 of the series, the Nugget threw two, three, four players at Curry. In Game 2 it was as if the Nuggets put no one on the Warriors' best player. … The Warriors certainly couldn't continue to shoot above 60 percent from the field in the second half. Well into the third period, the Warriors continued to shoot above 60 percent. Curry couldn't keep blazing, could he? The Nuggets managed to reduce the Warriors' lead below 10, but Curry had 10 more points in the third as the Warriors pushed the lead back to 13. Where has the team that hadn't lost at home since mid-January? Where were those Nuggets who have won 39 (including Game 1 of the series) at home? Where were those Nuggets who plowed through the NBA since February. Nowhere to be found.
• Greg Cote of The Miami Herald: There was this one particular little burst here Tuesday night for Dwyane Wade. It was like the old days. It was like the young days. Wade, bending, slashing for consecutive driving layups, then pulling up for a jumper soft off the glass. Three baskets in less than a minute and a half, Heat crowd reenergized inside the downtown bayside gym. There was this one particular little snapshot a bit later in this second first-round NBA playoff game: Wade, taking a pass near the free-throw line, one big stride and a leap finished by a one-handed dunk. Vintage stuff. If you froze the picture, his flight would have reminded you of the famous Michael Jordan silhouette. Later, Wade followed a miss with a dunk and then did that thing he does when he’s alone in a zone, lowering himself and spreading his arms as if about to take flight, fans roaring. Miami beat the Milwaukee Bucks 98-86 to take a commanding 2-0 series lead. No surprise there. The defending champions not dispatching an eighth-seeded foe would only rank among the biggest shocks in sports history. … No, the expected result was not the story Tuesday. For me, the story of the night was a gentle reminder that should nourish Heat fans: D-Wade can still bring it. Even still battling a sore right knee, he can still bring it. All things considered, he’s still pretty good for an old guy, isn’t he?
• Charles F. Gardner of the Journal Sentinel: Backup point guard Ish Smith played only four minutes for the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday night. But Smith was in the game during a terrible 2½-minute stretch as the Miami Heat went on a 12-0 run to open the fourth quarter and take control in a 98-86 victory in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference playoff series. "You learn, you grow from it," Smith said. "That's a good team. There's a lot of good things we can pull out of this game. We'll do that, get better in practice and be ready for Game 3." Smith missed one shot and committed a turnover during that stretch as the Heat extended a three-point lead after three quarters to an 80-65 advantage. Smith and Brandon Jennings formed the backcourt at the start of the quarter, with Ekpe Udoh, Marquis Daniels and Mike Dunleavy in the frontcourt. "As a point guard you've got to learn from that," Smith said. "Who do I get a shot for or do I create a shot for myself? The turnover I think Brandon was open and Marquis was open, and LeBron (James) did a great job, just got his hand in the passing lane.”
• Howard Beck of The New York Times: In another time, another spring, the duel would have been tantalizing, electric and potentially epic: Carmelo Anthony versus Paul Pierce, for control of the Eastern Conference. The names alone inspire visions of a classic playoff scoring battle. In another era, it might have been. In this one, the duel has become an unfair fight, between a still-rising superstar and his superior supporting cast and a fading likely Hall of Famer, who has hardly any support at all. Anthony dominated the court again Tuesday night, overpowering Pierce and anyone else in his path, leading the Knicks to an 87-71 rout and a commanding 2-0 lead in this first-round series. Through two games, the Knicks have been sturdier defensively and simply better in the second half, but most of all they have Anthony, who has been brilliant in the critical moments. He scored 34 points Tuesday and might have gone for 40 had the Knicks needed it. He was at his best in the second half, making 8 of 13 shots from the field as the Knicks turned a close game into a stunning rout, outscoring the Celtics, 45-23, over the final 24 minutes. … The Celtics, playing without Rajon Rondo, have never appeared more rudderless, failing to hit the 80-point mark in both games. A younger Pierce would have simply assumed a greater load, but he no longer seems capable and finished with a relatively muted 18 points Tuesday night. Over two games, Anthony has outscored his rival Pierce, 70-39.
• Mark Murphy of the Boston Herald: The Celtics have now played two games without the Kevin Garnettthey know and depend on. From the overall offensive malaise of Game 1 to Garnett’s foul trouble in last night’s 87-71 Game 2 loss to the Knicks, the Celtics headed home suffering from KG deprivation and in an 0-2 hole in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals. Garnett picked up three quick first-half fouls — two of the light-touch variety — and finished with five in 24 minutes — numbers far more influential than his 12-point, 11-rebound double-double. Garnett was restrained on the foul question. … Doc Rivers came much more to the point when he said, “I thought the fouls on Kevin were horrendous. Him not being on the floor — playing 24 minutes and never getting your rhythm, where you could see it looked like he was going to have a big game — it hurt us. And that’s just the way it goes. There’s nothing I can do about it now. But I thought that if it could have gone either way on those, they all went at Kevin. I think that’s tough.”
• Mike Wells of The Indianapolis Star: The Indiana Pacers know the opportunity is there. They know the Atlanta Hawks are a fragile team that can be shook easily. The Pacers can protect their home court Wednesday and send the Hawks back to Atlanta down 2-0 with even more questions than they already have. It’s just a matter of which Pacers team shows up for Game 2 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse: the one that won Game 1 by 17 points or the one that had the tendency to have a letdown after success during the regular season? … The Pacers’ impressive Game 1 victory no longer means anything. The players can look at the Brooklyn-Chicago series if they need further proof. The Nets beat the Bulls by 17 points at home in Game 1, only to turn around and lose their home-court edge by dropping Game 2. If the Pacers lose Wednesday, home-court advantage belongs to the Hawks. Indiana will have to wait two days for an opportunity to get it back, and then it won’t be easy; the Pacers have lost 11 in a row at Atlanta. That makes winning Game 2 even more important.
• Chris Vivlamore of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Josh Smith, the Hawks’ leading scorer, will play in Game 2 against the Pacers Wednesday after suffering a sprained right ankle in the playoff series opener. Smith was a full participant in Tuesday’s workout. He missed the on-court portion of Monday’s workout after suffering the injury in the third quarter of the Game 1 loss. “I should be all right,” Smith said. “It’s still a little sore but it’s playoff time and I have to suck it up.” Smith said he was hurt when he stepped on the foot of teammate Devin Harris with 9:33 remaining in the third quarter. He stayed in the game after a timeout. Smith finished with 15 points, but only four came in the second half. Hawks coach Larry Drew said Smith moved around well Tuesday and that he anticipated the forward would play Wednesday.
• David Barron of the Houston Chronicle: Kevin McHale, in schooling the Rockets for Game 2 of the series tonight after the Thunder’s 120-91 win Sunday in Oklahoma City, can hearken back to two of the most famous boom-and-bust cycles in NBA history to show how playoff fortunes can turn on a dime. “I’ve been in playoff series where we’ve won by 30 and lost the next game,” he said. “Every game is new unto itself.” … “Every game in the NBA is new,” McHale said. “Tuesday’s game is not like Wednesday’s game. They’re all different.” Meanwhile, in a universe more akin to the one occupied by the Rockets and Thunder, Harden was quick to note the possible parallels for the Rockets of Chicago’ Game 2 win over Brooklyn after the Nets took Game 1 of that first-round series. “You saw what can happen,” Harden said. “There’s just a matter of us fixing things, watching film and going out and executing. We know what we did (in Game 1). We know what we can change and how much better we can play. We’ve just got to go out there and do it.”
• John Rohde of The Oklahoman: There are multiple reasons why Game 1 is one game, and OKC has provided several examples: Three seasons ago, when OKC was the No. 8 seed playing the No. 1-seeded Los Angeles Lakers, the Thunder won 110-89 in Game 4 to tie the series at 2. The next time the teams met at the Ford Center, the Lakers ended the series with a 95-94 victory on a Pau Gasol tip-in with 0.5 seconds left. Two seasons ago, OKC outlasted Memphis 4-3 in a thrilling Western Conference semifinals series that could have gone either way, yet every game was decided by at least eight points. The Thunder won Game 5 by 27, then lost by 12, then won (and clinched) by 15. Last season, OKC trailed 2-0 in the Western Conference Finals against the San Antonio Spurs, a team that had won 20 straight. The Thunder flipped the series and won four straight to advance to the NBA Finals. OKC's regular-season series this year against Houston offered similar evidence. The Thunder won the first two games by an average of 26 points and led the series finale by 14 points with seven minutes left, only to lose 122-119 at Toyota Center.
• Jeff McDonald of the San Antonio Express-News: It is not often a contending team adds a former two-time NBA scoring champion less than a week before the start of the playoffs. That is exactly what the Spurs did eight days ago, when they signed 33-year-old swingman Tracy McGrady, recently of the Chinese Basketball Association. It could still be a while before McGrady makes his Spurs debut. Inactive for the Spurs’ 91-79 victory over the Lakers in Game 1, McGrady is all but certain to spend Game 2 on Wednesday night in street clothes as well. “We’re going real slow,” coach Gregg Popovich said. “We wanted to have another body just as an insurance policy. You don’t know what’s going to happen during a playoff series. We wanted to add someone.” Having arrived in San Antonio two months after his final game in China, McGrady has spent the past eight days working back into basketball condition and familiarizing himself with the Spurs’ playbook.
• Mike Bresnahan of the Los Angeles Times: There's one big, blistering question facing the Lakers. So, uh, who's going to score for you guys? In three games without Kobe Bryant, the Lakers have shot 37.9% and averaged 89.7 points, the latter stat padded by nine points in overtime against Houston last week. They shot and shot and missed and missed in their playoff opener against San Antonio. They need to find someone besides Dwight Howard to make something happen Wednesday in Game 2. There are some doubters. "They can't," TNT analyst Kenny Smith said. "They can't. It's not enough." Don't anyone tweet that to Bryant. OK, go ahead. The Lakers could use a fire under their chairs with Bryant presumably watching again from home, though they didn't seem overly concerned about the lack of scoring power. "I think we missed shots, shots that we normally make," said Howard, who made eight of 12 in Game 1. "Scoring's not the issue. Defense is." Not really. The Lakers held San Antonio to 37.6% shooting in Game 1 and lost, 91-79. Defense wasn't the problem. Scoring and turnovers (18 against the Spurs) were the issue. Sorry, Dwight.

• Can't decide if the Clippers really have any chance of hanging with the Thunder and the Spurs in the West. One unknowable is to what extent Chris Paul has been holding back, waiting for the playoffs. To that end, in Game 1 he busted out 23 points on just 11 shots, to go with seven assists and two rebounds, making him arguably the best player of the weekend. Meanwhile, things didn't get any easier for the Grizzlies when Paul took a seat. His backup, Eric Bledsoe, made all seven of his shots to go with six rebounds and four assists. All told that's 38 points on 18 shots from Clipper point guards, to go with 11 assists, eight rebounds, two steals and just two turnovers. Serious.
• Ethan Sherwood Strauss on WarriorsWorld, talking about life without David Lee: "In a vacuum, the injury is awful news for an already thin team. There is opportunity in destruction, however. Something may be gained by GSW resorting to guerilla tactics. Mark Jackson has been averse to using a small frontcourt. I don’t have many criticisms of Jackson, but this is one of them. On account of his size and athleticism, Harrison Barnes should be a prototypical stretch four. That hasn’t happened yet, even though the Warriors might reap rewards from spreading the floor with four three-point shooters."
• Maybe what was wrong with the Lakers offense was the Spurs defense.
• NBA owners still not totally convinced the would-be Sacramento Kings owners can come up with the cash.
• What about bringing Joe Johnson off the bench? Jeremy Gordon of Brooklyn's Finest: "Joe Johnson had such an easier time getting his points when he was playing with the second unit that the Nets might consider using him as more of a bench asset. He’s their best iso scorer, regardless of your unreasonably positive feelings re: Andray Blatche, and it might be better if he’s able to conserve his energy for when the reserve offense needs to get going."
• Did Lionel Hollins get outcoached by Vinny Del Negro?
• Devin Kharpertian of the Brooklyn Game: "Brooklyn Nets forward Reggie Evans dribble-drove before lofting a lob to Andray Blatche, throwing down the dunk to put the Nets up 80-56 in the third quarter of a playoff game against the Chicago Bulls. This is a real sentence, with no typos or lies or mistakes or anything."
• The Rockets need more Patrick Beverley and Omer Asik, and a better version of Jeremy Lin, writes Rahat Huq on Red94: "Jeremy Lin, for his part, was particularly atrocious, going 1-7 from the floor with 4 turnovers. His more glaring flaws were on greater display as he forced crosscourt passes when pressured, was out of control, and discontinued any usage of his left hand."
• There's a lot of fine print at the end of this ad. I think it might say "no, you don't actually get to party with Kevin Durant."
• James Harden explained the Rockets' loss by saying his young teammates were "shellshocked." Kendrick Perkins reacts, according to Daily Thunder: "Sounds like a personal problem." Also, a great thought from Royce Young: "You know how Rick Pitino motivated his team by telling them he’d get a tattoo if they won the title? If OKC wins it all, I think Russ should get to pick Scott Brooks’ wardrobe for all of next season. Or at least the season opener."
• Did Lawrence Frank fail the Pistons or vice-versa?
• Gregg Popovich, clutch with the crossword.

• Greg Cote of The Miami Herald: Is this where Heat fans were supposed to modestly feign concern because their team’s playoff run began Sunday night with a victory that was somewhat close for a little while? Do we now pretend this might be a competitive series, after all, because the Bucks’ opening loss was, for some of the night, relatively speaking, not entirely embarrassing? Nah. Sorry. This is the mismatch we expected. This is the mismatch that makes you wonder why Milwaukee doesn’t just concede now and save on lodging and travel costs. The Bucks are as hopeless against the Heat in this series as a cardboard house is in a Category 5 hurricane, and any doubts about that Sunday were short-lived. If anything, Game 1 of this first-round NBA playoff series verified why Miami, which won 110-87, has so little concern with Milwaukee. See, this was the Bucks’ best shot. Their adrenaline was palpable. They took 14 more shots than Miami. Their mouthy guard who promised a Bucks series win in six games, Brandon Jennings, scored 26 points. The sloppy Heat had 19 turnovers. And still Miami won big. Won so comfortably that the “White Hot” crowd that filled the downtown bayside arena like a mighty snowstorm had revved up into party mode (along with courtside spectator Rihanna) long before the final horn. Milwaukee has no shot in this series against the No. 1-seeded defending champions because the inspirational children’s book is called, The Little Engine That Could, but the Bucks are “The Little Engine That Couldn’t Quite.”
• Charles F. Gardner of the Journal Sentinel: It was a frustrating playoff debut for Milwaukee Bucks centerLarry Sanders. The third-year pro was in foul trouble throughout the game and never found a rhythm in the Bucks' 110-87 loss to the Miami Heat on Sunday night in Game 1 of the teams' Eastern Conference playoff series. "I kept having to press the reset button to get myself loose," Sanders said of his foul woes. Sanders finished with six points, five rebounds and five fouls while being limited to 19 minutes. He drew his fourth foul with 9 minutes 31 seconds left in the third quarter and had to go to the bench. After returning to the court, he missed two short-range shots in the fourth quarter and picked up a fifth foul on a drive by Dwyane Wade. At that point Sanders exited and gave one thumb up to referee Sean Corbin. "Just tell him to stay confident," Bucks guard Brandon Jennings said of his advice for his teammate. "I mean, we've got one Tuesday (Game 2) and it's going to be another hostile environment.”
• Jeff McDonald of the San Antonio Express-News: It was late in the third quarter of a tight game. A playoff game, Spurs and Lakers, just like old times. The Spurs were in control, but not firmly. The Lakers were behind, but not disastrously. For nearly three quarters, the Spurs’ lead stretched and contracted, stretched and contracted, and at some point Manu Ginobili began to grow wistful. “It used to be my moment,” the Spurs’ guard said. Sunday at the AT&T Center, with Game 1 of the Spurs’ Western Conference playoff series against a familiar rival still in the balance, it was Ginobili’s moment again. With a flurry of eight points in 85 seconds to end the third quarter, Ginobili set the Spurs’ course toward 91-79 victory that served as the series’ opening salvo. By the time Ginobili’s three-shot flourish was complete — a layup and two 3-pointers — the Spurs had their largest lead (13 points) to take into the fourth. “You always want to create some separation,” Ginobili said. “Sometimes it doesn’t happen. I just took a couple risks. The ball went in, and it helped us.” Playing just his second game since straining his right hamstring March 29, the 35-year-old Ginobili led an energized and defensively refocused Spurs team with 18 points.
• Bill Plaschke of the Los Angeles Times: In an unprecedented move for a star of his stature, the injured Bryant tweeted his feelings about the game, during the game, for more than 2 million followers to digest. It was cool. It was insightful. It was a bold new testament to social media's ability to connect the commoner with royalty. If you believe Lakers Coach Mike D'Antoni's rolled eyes afterward, it was also annoying. “It's great to have that commentary,” said D'Antoni bitingly. … Later, though, he began to have second thoughts about his involvement in the game, and his afternoon tweets ended with, “I see my tweeting during the game is being talked about as much as the game itself. Not my intention, just bored as I guess #notagain.” Does that mean Bryant will not tweet during the Lakers' second game here Wednesday? It would be unfortunate if he felt as if he couldn't stay connected to the team. It would be unfortunate if we couldn't read what he's thinking. Here's hoping he can figure out a way to make it work without making his coaches and teammates feel threatened during this most vulnerable of times. He surely understands. After all, can you imagine his reaction in a locker room after hearing that an injured player was tweeting about him? The only thing for certain is, on a day when the Lakers lost the ball and their focus, they missed their leader so badly, 140 characters can't begin to describe it.
• Berry Tramel of The Oklahoman: James Harden drove the lane which he has driven so many times before, the north end of Chesapeake Energy Arena's hardwood, and suddenly there was his old pal. Not trying to block the shot. Nope, Kevin Durant was so fired up about the start of this reunion tour, he was trying to take a charge. Which he attempts about once a season whether he needs to or not. “I was surprised,” Harden said. “I thought he was going to try to block my shot. He stood there and moved at the same time.” The whistle went Durant's way, but that had nothing to do with the Thunder's 120-91 rout of the Rockets on Sunday night. The mentality had everything to do with it. The high-flying Houstons were grounded. They missed 12 of their first 13 shots and eventually finished 33 of 91 from the field. … And Durant, the offensive phenom, was no small part of the effort. He dominated Parsons and even guarded Harden for a stretch. Not that any Thunder stayed on a Rocket long. The Thunder continually switched on Rocket screens, even when playing with surplus big men. Rocket coach Kevin McHale admitted that has bothered his team all season, and it bumfuzzled Houston on Sunday night. “It was all about giving it your all every possession,” Durant said. “Want to try to make them uncomfortable every time down.” Mission accomplished.
• Jerome Solomon of the Houston Chronicle: Only April fools thought the Rockets could slip into Oklahoma City on Sunday night and sneak away with a victory in Game one of their playoff series. A well-rested Thunder playing at home against a team that it is significantly better than, wasn’t about to be caught slipping to start what they hope is a run to the NBA championship. After losing in the Finals last year, OKC is a confident bunch. The only way they could lose to Houston is to have a bad night on the same evening the Rockets have a good one. For the Rockets, playing well won’t be enough. OKC is simply too good. For the Rockets to even have a chance at winning a game or two, they need to do almost everything better than they did tonight. Jeremy Lin needs to settle down. He looked shaky, made poor decisions and couldn’t make a shot. Lin can’t make just 1-of-7 shots (0-for-4 on 3s) in 33 minutes unless he is running the offense to perfection and setting others up, which he wasn’t. James Harden has to play like a superstar, especially when his teammates aren’t playing well. The Rockets look to him to deliver and his getting off to a slow start and not playing an efficient offensive game overall, is too much for this team to overcome. He has struggled of late, and his injured foot hasn’t helped.
• Bob Kravitz of The Indianapolis Star: The Pacers we saw Sunday in a 107-90 Game 1 victory over the Atlanta Hawks were the Pacers we saw the first 75 games of the regular season — tough-minded, aggressive, tied-together defensively — especially in the second half. … This is the template. This is how they’re going to beat the Hawks — live at the free-throw line, dominate the boards, play inside-out and force the transition-happy Hawks to play the Pacers’ mega-physical, halfcourt game. … These are the Indiana Pacers we’ve come to know and appreciate. They went away for a while there, but if Game 1 is any indication, they appear to be back. Yes, it sounds crazy to call any Game 1 must-win, but this was a must-win game for the Pacers’ suddenly fragile psyche. This isn’t like last year, when they could blow Game 1 at home to Orlando and know they had plenty of time to win a series against a Dwight Howard-less Magic team. If they had lost Sunday, it would have piled doubt upon the existing doubt, and it wouldn’t have been pretty. Order has been restored. For now.
• Chris Vivlamore of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: A quick perusal of the stat sheet held the glaring evidence of the Pacers domination of the Hawks. Free-throws: Pacers 30 of 34; Hawks 7 of 14. Rebounds: Pacers 48, (15 offensive); Hawks 32 (six offensive). The Pacers exploited those numbers for a 107-90 victory over the Hawks Sunday afternoon in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference first-round playoff series. Game 2 of the best-of-seven series is Wednesday. Hawks coach Larry Drew said he would not allow his team to use the free-throw discrepancy as a crutch – even though the Pacers made more than double of the freebies the Hawks attempted. “You can look at the stat sheet and you can draw your own conclusion on that,” Drew said. “I don’t think that was the deciding difference. I think we were still in position, in striking distance (in the fourth quarter). … We got beat because they outworked us.” … The Hawks were to return to Atlanta following the afternoon game for home practices Monday and Tuesday before returning for Game 2.
• Jill Painter of the Los Angeles Daily News: Eric Bledsoe put on a show Saturday night as the Clippers beat Memphis 112-91, in the first game of their Western Conference first-round playoff series. He made all seven of his shot attempts in scoring 15 points and added six rebounds and four assists. The way the Clippers guard has blossomed isn't new to his teammates, but he might be considered a surprise to national NBA fans. "Unbelievable growth," Chris Paul said of Bledsoe. "Bled is one of the best guards in the league. I've said it all season long, I'm enjoying playing with him right now because there's no way he can be here next year because we probably won't have enough money to pay him. "He should be a starting point guard in this league next year. For him, I'm just enjoying it. I love to sit back and watch him because he's a game-changer. He's the key to our run." During a game in which DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin weren't a factor offensively, save for rebounds, Bledsoe helped deliver. At one point, he flexed both arm muscles, and with good reason.
• Chris Herrington of the Memphis Flyer: As I mentioned at the outset, the Clippers have now won five of the past six meetings between these teams. Another decisive win in Los Angeles on Monday night and “Clips in 5” will become the most likely scenario here. After the last regular season loss to the Clippers, I suggested — contrary to conventional wisdom — that the Nuggets might be the more preferable Grizzlies opponent. Part of that reasoning was match-ups and the relative health of those teams entering the playoffs. Part of it was analysis fatigue — a personal desire to dive into a different opponent. But a big part of that assertion was psychological: I worried — and worry more now — about coming back to FedExForum down 0-2 to this particular team with this particular recent history. Not just the mood in the locker room and on the floor in the event of such an occurrence, but in the stands as well. For that reason, as much as for the raw competitive calculus, Monday night's Game 2 will be enormous for the Grizzlies.
• K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune: Tom Thibodeau likes to reveal rotational details about as much as Nate Robinson likes to pass up open shots. Nevertheless, in translating Thibs-speak, Richard Hamilton or Marco Belinelli may want to prepare for a lesser role. "We could, yeah," Thibodeau said, when asked if he might pick either Hamilton or Belinelli for the rotation. Jimmy Butler's elevation to starter and Thibodeau's preference to play Robinson alongside Kirk Hinrich for Robinson's scoring binges has crowded the shooting guard rotation. "We've had a lot of guys in and out of the lineup," Thibodeau said. "You're also looking at guys who are trying to come back from injury so you don't know where they are. The only way to find out was to play them. And so we have a little more clarity. And we'll see where we are (Monday)." Hamilton played just 7 minutes, 14 seconds to Belinelli's 19:54 and Robinson's 20:11 in Game 1, so the veteran could be the odd man out. He came off the bench for the first time in 127 career playoff games Saturday.
• Filip Bondy of the New York Daily News: The Nets are very tough matchups for the Bulls when the visitors are ailing like this. Carlos Boozer may present a problem for Brooklyn, but Brook Lopez owned the paint on offense in Game 1 without Noah at his best. Gerald Wallace and Reggie Evans controlled the defensive boards. Without Rose around, Williams didn’t need to work as hard on defense. On offense, he was able to penetrate and distribute the ball with limited resistance. The Nets owned many of these same advantages, however, when Chicago came into Barclays earlier this month and stormed back in the second half for an unsettling victory. They need to come out with the same energy and precision as they did on Saturday, no simple task. … History says that when the home team wins the first game in the NBA playoffs, it wins Game 2 nearly 74% of the time. Victory doesn’t always need to be so decisive. It just needs to be a victory, followed by another, followed by another, followed by another.

It's time to roll out the 2013 TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown.

Let's introduce this year's contestants:

• Arturo Galletti is back again, representing the Wages of Wins school of basketball analytics. He's an electrical engineer by trade and and works on sport analysis in his free time.
• ESPN.com Insider Tom Haberstroh joins the field for the first time.
• Stephen Ilardi, a professor at Kansas, consultant to the Phoenix Suns and author of the book, "The Depression Cure."
• Jeffrey Ma, the 2010 champion, is back. The movie "21" and book "Bringing Down the House" are about his experience as a member of the MIT Blackjack Team. He wrote "The House Advantage: Playing the Odds to Win Big In Business" and is the CEO of tenXer.
• Benjamin Morris, who won the 2011 Smackdown, has a blog at Skeptical Sports Analysis.
• Matthew Stahlhut, a sports gambling consultant, is the reigning TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown champion and looks to defend his 2012 title.
• Henry Abbott's mom.
• The Crowd represents the collective wisdom of more than 100 ESPN.com writers and TrueHoop Network bloggers. A similar model (our annual Summer Forecast feature) has beaten the Las Vegas line on regular season win totals each of the past three seasons.

There's a consensus among our panel that the Heat, Thunder, Spurs, Nuggets and Pacers will advance. Mr. Ma is the lone dissenter in the Knicks-Celtics series, as he picked the Celtics in 6. In both 4 vs. 5 matchups, the field is divided, which means the outcome of those two series will likely set the pace for the Smackdown as we move forward.

One interesting item from The Crowd's picks: It has six of the eight series winners closing out the first round on the road, a counter-intuitive prediction in a sport where home teams tend to dominate. Is there wisdom in this crowd? Watch this space.

The NBA playoffs begin this weekend with four games Saturday and four more on Sunday.

Let’s get you ready for the next two months with a list of our top stats to know heading into the postseason.

Heat trends point to a title
The Miami Heat enter the playoffs as the unquestioned favorites and will look to become back-to-back champions.

Only five NBA franchises have ever pulled off a repeat championship: the Celtics, Lakers, Bulls, Rockets and Pistons. LeBron James, the runaway MVP favorite, can also be the first player with MVP and NBA titles in back-to-back seasons since Michael Jordan’s first two titles in 1991 and 1992.

Of the 12 previous squads to win 66 or more games in the NBA regular season, nine went on to win the championship that season.

The Heat finished with the third-best winning percentage by a defending NBA champion in league history, trailing only two of Michael Jordan's Bulls' teams from the 1990s and ahead of two of Bill Russell's Celtics' teams from the 1960s.

Each of those four other teams went on to defend the title successfully, a goal the Heat hope to accomplish over the next several weeks.

Lakers-Spurs foreshadowing
In the Tim Duncan and Kobe Bryant eras for each franchise, the Lakers and Spurs have met in the playoff six times.

Each time, the winner has gone on to reach the NBA Finals. Four of the six times, the winner has gone on to an NBA championship. The Lakers are 4-2 against the Spurs in those playoff series, winning four of the past five.

This is the first time during those eras that the teams are meeting in the first round. And we could see something else new this year -- none of those series lasted seven games.

The Spurs will be making their 16th consecutive postseason appearance, the longest active streak in the NBA.

Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili will be making their 11th straight postseason appearance as teammates.

Celtics, Knicks recent histories are opposites
This marks the sixth straight playoff appearance for the Celtics. In each of their previous five appearances, they advanced past the first round. The Knicks, meanwhile, haven’t won a playoff series since 2000. New York is 3-15 in its past four playoff appearances.

Carmelo Anthony’s teams are just 2-9 in playoff series, both of those wins coming in 2009 when the Nuggets made it to the Western Conference finals before losing to the Lakers in six games. Anthony is 1-8 in playoff games in his Knicks career.

Coaching legends abound
The coaching in this postseason features three coaches with at least 60 career playoff wins: Gregg Popovich, George Karl and Doc Rivers.

Popovich trails only Phil Jackson and Pat Riley for most career playoff coaching wins.

The field also features three coaches that have won titles: Popovich (4), Rivers (1) and Erik Spoelstra (1).

The only other active coach who has won a title is Rick Carlisle, whose Mavericks missed the playoffs this season.

The value of Round 1, Game 1
How important is Game 1 in the first round of the NBA playoffs? The Elias Sports Bureau tells us that since the first round was expanded to a best-of-seven format in 2003, the team that won Game 1 went on to win 61 of 80 series (76 percent).

Teams that won Game 1 at home won 51 of 58 first-round series (88 percent) and teams that won Game 1 on the road won 10 of 22 series (45 percent).

One example of this: The Chicago Bulls are 19-5 all-time in best-of-seven series when winning Game 1. When losing a Game 1 of a best-of-seven, they’re just 6-15. On the other hand, the Brooklyn Nets are 7-2 all-time in best-of-seven series when winning Game 1. They are just 1-5 in best-of-7s when losing Game 1.

ESPN.com Insider David Thorpe predicts every first-round playoff series. East series are here.

• Bill Plaschke of the Los Angeles Times: Yay? One of the most hyped teams in NBA history fell exhaustedly into the playoffs Wednesday. Appropriately, it happened with only three hours left in the season. Fittingly, it was clinched when they were just standing around. Ten minutes before the start of their game with the Houston Rockets, the Lakers learned that the Utah Jazz had lost in Memphis, meaning the Lakers were guaranteed the Western Conference's final playoff spot. There was no announcement. There was no confetti. There was only the live broadcast of the final seconds of Utah's loss blaring on the giant Staples Center scoreboard. Their ticket was punched by the image of Al Jefferson with his face buried in his hands. The Lakers, in the middle of their pregame warmups, barely stirred. The fans, engaged in their pregame texting, barely cheered. Only one person seemed immediately and genuinely excited. You can probably guess. "And to think some said we wouldn't make it," tweeted Kobe Bryant, who added the hashtags #keepcalm, #believe, #makeplayoffs, and #makehistory. The Lakers certainly would make some sort of history simply by getting out of the first round, where their depleted and underachieving team will now play the West's second-seeded San Antonio Spurs.
• Mike Monroe of the San Antonio Express-News: It was hard for the Spurs to find much encouraging about Wednesday’s 108-95 season-ending loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves at the AT&T Center, but the return of veteran guard Manu Ginobili was plenty enough. After missing nine games with a strained right hamstring sustained in the first quarter March 29 against the Clippers, Ginobili entered Wednesday’s game with 5:32 remaining in the first period. His presence on the court brought the loudest ovation from the Fan Appreciation Night crowd. It also energized his teammates, and the Spurs played their sharpest basketball while he was in the game. In the 11 minutes and 46 seconds he played, all coming in the first half, the Spurs outscored the Timberwolves by 10 points. “I was a little tired,” Ginobili said. “I’ve been lifting a lot to strengthen the area (of the hamstring injury). Where the tear was felt great. Condition-wise, I only played 12 minutes, but those 12 minutes felt good.” Ginobili went just 1 of 4 and scored two points with two assists, but those statistics didn’t matter to his teammates. What mattered was that he was on the court and in uniform, rather than behind the bench in David Stern-approved business attire.
• T.J. Simers of the Los Angeles Times: His team swept the Lakers this season, won a division title and recorded 56 wins in a Western Conference rich with worthy opponents. But there's a feeling within the Clippers that the players and the organization could do better with someone else. I'd suggest a psychiatrist. The front office turned sour on Del Negro earlier this season when he chatted with Celtics' boss Danny Ainge about a deal to acquire Kevin Garnett. They felt it wasn't his place to do so. Hard feelings remain. Del Negro also isn't as sold on keeping DeAndre Jordan as the front office is, and so there are grounds for continued conflict. If I knew the name of the team's wallflower general manager, I would tell you. Andy Roeser remains Donald Sterling's top aide, but he's lost much of his influence now that Sterling's son-in-law, Eric Miller, has joined the team in training as possibly Sterling's heir apparent. Too early to say if we're talking upgrade.
• Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle: When the Lakers eventually cracked the Rockets defensive double-teams inside, the Rockets bogged down. When Pau Gasol was masterfully playmaking and the Lakers shooters punishing the Rockets for the attention they paid to the Lakers’ big men who had become the focal point of the Los Angeles offense with Kobe Bryant out, the Rockets went one-on-one. When the seventh seed and a first round matchup with the Spurs seemed in sight, the Rockets crashed with one one-on-one misfire after another until the Lakers held on 99-95 in overtime, sending the Rockets regular season to a particularly disheartening defeat. The loss dropped the Rockets to a first-round matchup with the Thunder, pitting James Harden against his former team beginning Sunday in Oklahoma City. Harden, however, said he had not had the time yet to process that, with the concern more about the way he led the Rockets offense down the stretch on Wednesday.
• John Rohde of The Oklahoman: Kevin Durant's run of three straight NBA scoring titles ended Wednesday morning when he revealed he would sit out that night's game against the Milwaukee Bucks at Chesapeake Energy Arena. It was a long shot anyway for Durant, who would have had to score 70 points to recapture the lead over new championCarmelo Anthony of the New York Knicks. “I definitely did not want to sit out, but medical staff and coaches thought it'd be a good idea,” Durant said after Wednesday's shootaround. “It would have been fun to try and get it. I don't know if I would have — 70s a lot of points. Who knows? That'd have been cool.” … How close did the scoring race have to be for Brooks to have given Durant his normal minutes in Wednesday's finale? “That's a great question,” Thunder coach Scott Brooks said, not providing an answer.
• Mark Kiszla of The Denver Post: Why not the Nuggets? Why not now? This is the best opportunity for Denver to win the NBA championship since it joined the league in 1976. Bring the optimism. Dream big. Nuggets point guard Ty Lawson has heard the same tired line, dripping with defeatist attitude, since he entered the NBA in 2009: It's impossible to win a championship in Denver. "Why would I buy into that? I believe that we can win a championship," Lawson said Wednesday. Why not the Nuggets? Why not now? There is every reason to believe the Nuggets will play in the Western Conference finals. In fact, I would guarantee Denver will blow the doors off its first-round opponent, give a proper burial to the golden age of basketball in San Antonio during Round 2 and advance to conference finals against Oklahoma City, except for the fact George Karl turns into Mr. Crankypants when I do his job for him.
• Marcus Thompson II of The Oakland Tribune: And now it gets real. The Warriors handled business in the regular-season finale, scoring a 99-88 win over the host Blazers on Wednesday. They locked up the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference. And point guard Stephen Curry knocked down four from beyond the arc, setting an NBA single-season record for most 3-pointers. Now, Golden State makes its first postseason appearance since 2007. The Warriors will face the No. 3 Denver Nuggets in the first round. Game 1 is Saturday in Denver and Game 2 is Tuesday. The Warriors will host Games 3 and 4 at Oracle Arena on April 26 and 28. "At this point last year, most of us were having the conversation about when we were heading out of town," said forward David Lee, who totaled 20 points and 10 rebounds. "Bags were packed, cars shipped out. So for us, this is really exciting. We know we have a challenge in front of us and we're ready to get started."
• David J. Neal of The Miami Herald: When the Heat put The Big 3 together, some pundits projected 70-win seasons and the Heat threatening the 1995-96 Chicago regular-season record of 72 wins. As overheated as all that seems now, the Heat did close the third season of the Big 3 era not far from 70 wins despite resting its stars down the stretch. Heat forward Chris Bosh was asked Wednesday morning if there was any disappointment the defending champions didn’t reach 70 wins. Bosh shrugged it off, noting that the Heat started relatively slowly this season as it integrated new players into its rotation.
• Charles F. Gardner of the Journal Sentinel: Jim Boylan used Ekpe Udoh in the starting lineup with Ersan Ilyasova out with a wrist injury. Ilyasova is expected to be ready for the playoffs, but the Bucks didn't want to take any chances with him or center Larry Sanders, who missed his fourth straight game with a sore lower back. Udoh's parents are from Edmond, Okla., and attended the game. He had four points and six rebounds in 24 minutes against the Thunder. Udoh, Gustavo Ayon and Henson are expected to be the primary big men backups in the playoffs against Miami. Asked if veterans Samuel Dalembert and Drew Gooden would have any role in the playoff series, Boylan said, "I don't think so at this point, no." Asked if that was performance-based or some other issue, Boylan said, "No. It's just the way it is; it's just the way it is."
• Bob Kravitz of The Indianapolis Star: In the end, the Indiana Pacers’ first-round playoff opponent, the Atlanta Hawks, isn’t the issue here. The issue is the Pacers themselves, the way they’ve played the past two weeks, the fact they’ve morphed from one of the top defensive teams in the league all season to one of the worst during a stretch of five losses in six games. … If the Pacers play the way they played the first 75 games, they’ll be fine, will advance in five or six games. This is, after all, the team that finished second in the league in points allowed, first in field goal percentage defense, first in 3-point field goal percentage defense and first in rebounding. If the Pacers continue to play like lost souls, they can get run before they know it. The good news that came out of Wednesday night is the Atlanta Hawks will be the first-round opponent, and they figure to be a significantly softer touch than the Chicago Bulls. … There is doubt with this team now. There was none two weeks ago when they came back from a rousing West Coast trip. Now we wonder. The issue isn’t the Atlanta Hawks. The issue is the Indiana Pacers. Simple as that.
• Chris Vivlamore of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: It will be the Pacers. The Hawks went down to the final day of the regular-season to determine their first-round playoff opponent. They will play the Pacers after slipping to the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference with two straight losses, the final being a 98-92 defeat to the Knicks Wednesday at Madison Square Garden. Game 1 will be Sunday. The Hawks limp into the postseason, in a manner of speaking, so they won’t limp in the postseason. For the second consecutive game, coach Larry Drew opted to rest his regulars. Al Horford, Josh Smith, Jeff Teague, Devin Harris, Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver, a group that went 11-5 this season as a starting unit, did not play. Many in the blogosphere accused the Hawks of “tanking” the final two games. However, coach Larry Drew insisted he wanted to give players with nagging injuries extra time to heal and prevent additional issues. “That is always a fear,” Drew said of injuries. “You go through a whole season and you get to a point and it becomes a roll of the dice. Do you play a guy or don’t you? Do you take a chance of somebody getting hurt or don’t you? … We as coaches make decisions and we have to live with them. If things happen, we have to deal with the consequences.”
• Mark Murphy of the Boston Herald: The Celtics realize they are carrying a torch more than ever for their city. The total meaning of that representation simply hasn’t set in yet. “I don’t know. I don’t know what we’re doing in that regard,” said coach Doc Rivers. “Anything we do or anything an individual outside the game does to give somebody comfort I’m all for it. If that’s what this does, I’m all for it.” Courtney Lee, who was a sophomore in high school in Indianapolis at the time of the 9/11 attacks, believes he has a clearer understanding of that meaning now. “As basketball players representing Boston, we definitely want to give the people something to cheer about,” he said. “You can’t replace losses and injuries, but you want to give those people something to take their minds off of it. I feel like with Boston, a big sports town, it will give them something to cheer about. Now I’m in a position where I play for the Boston Celtics, and this happened in Boston,” Lee added. “I’m sure our team will do something to get out and help the community. Lots of people will turn toward sports, and we can give them something to cheer about.”
• Al Iannazzone of Newsday: His tattoos, the hard fouls he delivers and all the facial expressions ranging from disdain and disgust to incredulous, dismissive smiles make people think they know who Kenyon Martin is as a person and a basketball player. He's tough, aggressive and physical. But it's been pride and heart that have made Martin a great late February pickup by the Knicks. He's on a mission to show he shouldn't have been unemployed for so long. "I'm just here to prove to people that I ain't never lost it," said Martin, who was out of basketball until the Knicks signed him. "I'm here to prove what I can do. That's everybody every night. Whoever put that uniform on that's opposite us they're going to see what they're missing." Martin is a confident, strong-willed player who has come back from two microfracture knee surgeries. People close to the 35-year-old veteran power forward say he doesn't get enough credit for his intelligence, and that Martin is a case of a book being judged by its cover.
• Mike MGraw of the Daily Herald: The Bulls went 3-1 against the Nets this season. What's interesting about that is Brooklyn used the same starting lineup in all four games against the Bulls — Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, Gerald Wallace, Reggie Evans and Brook Lopez. The Bulls were always missing at least two regulars. In Brooklyn's lone victory, a 93-89 win on Feb. 1, the Bulls didn't have Joakim Noah, Carlos Boozer or Kirk Hinrich. "I don't put a lot of stock in (the regular-season record)," said Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau. "They're really good and they're the higher seed. They earned that. I think they play hard. You have Lopez, who's a low-post presence. You have Deron Williams off the dribble, you have Joe Johnson off the dribble, then you have a lot of other guys who are very good basketball players. We have to be ready for them. They're tough. They have size. They have quality depth on that team, so we're going to have to play a complete game. Knowing your opponent well, being ready for that first game, I think that's huge." The last time the Bulls faced the Nets in the playoffs was the 1998 first round when John Calipari was head coach and Jayson Williams and Kendall Gill were key players.
• Tim Bontemps of the New York Post: “I thought our guys have done a good job,” interim coach P.J. Carlesimo said. “They had to handle a coaching change, which is not an easy thing, and I think they’ve played well. They played well on the road. I think we’ve improved, and we’ve got home court, which is significant. “Making the playoffs is significant. Winning the road games they’ve won is significant. But now we have one more to get through, then get through a couple days of practice and then it’s a whole new [season] … [the playoffs] will still color the year more than anything else.” There certainly have been plenty of ups and downs — from the brilliant 11-4 start in November that led to Avery Johnson earning Eastern Conference Coach of the Month honors, only to lose his job a few weeks later after the Nets went 3-10 to open December. Then, after Carlesimo took over, the Nets had arguably their best win of the season — a victory in Oklahoma City over the defending Western Conference champion Thunder — that propelled them on a seven-game winning streak and a 9-1 start under Carlesimo. … You can even include the two versions of Deron Williams the Nets have seen this season — the one from before the All-Star break who was dealing with ongoing ankle issues, and the slimmer, quicker one from after the break and a round of platelet rich plasma treatment in both ankles that has taken the league by storm over the last 20 games or so.

Wednesday is the final day of the NBA regular season, and there’s no shortage of reasons to tune in. There are still playoff spots to be clinched, seeds to be determined and individual honors to be claimed.

Wild West Playoff Picture
Here’s how much we know for sure in the Western Conference entering Wednesday. The Oklahoma City Thunder are the 1 seed, and the San Antonio Spurs are No. 2. That’s it.

The Denver Nuggets have the inside track for the 3 seed. They’ll lock it down with a home win over the Phoenix Suns, or if the Los Angeles Clippers lose what could be the Kings’ final game in Sacramento. If Denver loses and the Clippers win, the Clippers take the third slot.

The worst the Nuggets or Clippers could do is the 4 seed and a First Round matchup with the Memphis Grizzlies, but who hosts the first game of that series is still to be decided.

If Memphis, currently with the same record as the Clippers, ends with a better record, it will have home-court advantage of the series, despite being seeded lower.

From six on down, it gets even more convoluted. If the Houston Rockets beat the Los Angeles Lakers (10:30 ET, ESPN) and the Golden State Warriors lose to the Portland Trail Blazers, the Rockets knock the Warriors out of the 6 seed.

The Warriors can’t fall any lower than seventh, but Houston could potentially fall as low as eighth. If the Lakers beat the Rockets, the Lakers take the 7 seed, knocking Houston to eighth.

If the Lakers lose to the Rockets, it opens the window for the Utah Jazz to get the final playoff spot with a win over the Grizzlies (8 ET, ESPN).


East is Much Simpler
If the Western Conference scenarios were too confusing, you might like the Eastern Conference much better.

Six of the eight playoff seeds are already locked in. The Chicago Bulls hold the 5 seed, and will hold onto it with either a home win over the Washington Wizards, or an Atlanta Hawks road loss to the New York Knicks.

Of course, with the 5 seed comes a potential Conference Semifinals matchup with the Miami Heat.

Individual Honors on the Line
The biggest head-to-head battle Wednesday night seemed to be Kevin Durant chasing Carmelo Anthony for the scoring title, but news that Durant will not play means that Anthony becomes the second Knicks player to win a scoring title, joining Bernard King.

But there is still history to be made. Golden State’s Stephen Curry enters Wednesday one 3-pointer behind Ray Allen’s NBA record of 269 in a single season, set in 2005-06.

Curry is averaging 3.5 3-pointers this season, meaning the odds are in his favor to break the record.

With Durant not playing, it also means Trail Blazers rookie Damian Lillard will likely lead the NBA in total minutes. He’d be just the third rookie in NBA history to lead the league in minutes played. The other two are Wilt Chamberlain (in 1959-60) and Elvin Hayes (1968-69).

• Tony Bizjak, Dale Kasler and Ryan Lillis of The Sacramento Bee: The uncertainty over the future of the Sacramento Kings will linger at least into next week. Just as Mayor Kevin Johnson announced on Tuesday that a local investor group was finally ready to present its formal bid to buy the team, league officials in New York revealed they have scrubbed plans to vote this week on a competing offer to move the team to Seattle. An NBA spokesman declined to offer a reason. League Commissioner David Stern two weeks ago said a postponement was possible due to what he called the complicated and unprecedented situation the league faces. The NBA has never before had to decide between two cities competing hard and well for the same team, Stern said. Both have well-financed groups eager to buy the team from the Maloof family, the team's current owner, and both cities assure the NBA they can build gleaming state-of-the art arenas in the next few years.
• Broderick Turner of the Los Angeles Times: Having Chauncey Billups back in the starting lineup for the Clippers on Tuesday night against the Portland Trail Blazers meant a lot to the team in many ways. Billups brings the Clippers championship experience. He won a title with the Detroit Pistons over the Lakers in 2004, when Billups was named the Finals most valuable player. "He's a little bit older now," Clippers Coach Vinny Del Negro said about the 36-year-old Billups. "He's missed most of last season and a lot of this season, so that's not as easy to do. We still expect a lot from him with his leadership. He can make shots, obviously. He's another guy that can make plays." Billups had missed the last eight games with a strained right groin. He has played in just 21 games this season and is expected to play in a back-to-back game Wednesday night in Sacramento. Del Negro said the plan is to play Billups about 20 minutes per game.
• Mark Murphy of the Boston Herald: The photo, like so many others from Monday’s explosions, had gone viral. A young woman, her body mostly obscured by a distraught man and an EMT, lay face down on the blood-splattered Boylston Street sidewalk. Avery Bradley spotted the photo online and immediately posted it to his Twitter account with a simple hashtag — #sad. “It just caught my eye,” the Celtics guard said before yesterday’s practice. “All I could think was that this is crazy, to think that people go to an event like this to run. That’s what they train for all year. And for people to lose arms and legs, that’s just crazy.” So Bradley did what so many others could only do. He asked for help from a greater power. “All you can do is pray for their families. I definitely did yesterday,” he said. “I feel bad, and if there’s any way I can help, I will want to help. . . . It could happen anywhere. But to see it happen there or anywhere at all is just crazy.” The Celtics took the practice floor in a relieved state yesterday, most glad last night’s game against Indiana was canceled.
• Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Daily News: With a $100 million payroll, four future Hall of Famers and a storied championship history, it's come to this. The Lakers' season finale Wednesdaytonight against the Houston Rockets could decide whether they perhaps salvage an otherwise disastrous season or miss the playoffs for only the third time in the team's history. Few would have guessed this scenario. Plenty envisioned the Lakers waltzing into the NBA Finals against the Miami Heat. Many wondered if anyone could stop a star-studded lineup that featured Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard, Steve Nash and Pau Gasol. Never shy to boast, Lakers forward Metta World Peace predicted the team would surpass the NBA's regular-season record (72-10) set by the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls team. "I thought we'd be at a different point right now," World Peace said. "But that's all right." Instead, the Lakers (44-37) enter Wednesdaytonight's game against the Houston Rockets (45-36) at Staples Center with a possible must-win situation. The Lakers are a pure lock for the playoffs if they win, earning a seventh seed and playing the San Antonio Spurs in the first round. A Lakers' loss coupled with a Utah loss against Memphis would leave the Lakers in the eighth spot against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
• Bill Oram of The Salt Lake Tribune: Wishing and hoping and thinking and — oh, right — playing. With apologies to Dusty Springfield, nothing else remains for the Utah Jazz. Their season may conclude with a loss to the Grizzlies here Wednesday, it may end with a Lakers win over the Houston Rockets in Los Angeles or it may be extended into a most unlikely postseason. If the Jazz can beat the Grizzlies at FedEx Forum, they will turn into Rockets fans, hoping Houston, trying to avoid falling into the eighth seed, can beat the Lakers in a game that fittingly, cruelly, doesn’t begin until after the Jazz and Grizzlies end on national TV. The Jazz, who won the season series against L.A., would be even with the Lakers and into the playoffs. "I guess I need to try to get in touch with Kevin McHale," Al Jefferson said of his former Minnesota coach, now with the Rockets, "and tell him to handle that for me. Give me a late birthday present."
• Steve Simmons of the Toronto Sun: As another Toronto Raptors season crawls to its conclusion, a franchise teetering on irrelevance has a series of enormous decisions to make. There may not be any one right answer for Tom Anselmi and the board of Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment, but there is almost certainly a wrong one. The decisions, as they seemingly do at the end of every Raptors season, revolve around the general manager, Bryan Colangelo, and the coach, Dwane Casey. Colangelo has an option year remaining on his contract. Casey has one year left on his deal. And the team is forever paddling in circles, creating the occasional wave, but ending up nowhere in the end. The decision for Anselmi and the board isn’t in any way obvious, with the largest issue being the relationship between Colangelo and Casey. Colangelo did his best to distance himself from his coach early in the season and there has been all kind of internal speculation that the two can’t possibly work together again. That determination may wind up saving his job or costing him the position.
• Chris Vivlamore of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: The Hawks had a chance to control their playoff seed. Not anymore. A poor effort against the Raptors, one in which the Hawks went to their bench early and often, resulted in a 113-96 loss Tuesday night in a nationally televised game at Philips Arena. The Hawks played without Al Horford and just a half with Josh Smith in a game they trailed by as many as 23 points. Smith played 13 minutes and received treatment on his knees at the intermission. He banged a knee in the first half and did not immediately come back to the bench after halftime but later returned with both knees wrapped in ice. Regulars Jeff Teague (19 minutes), Kyle Korver (18) and Devin Harris (17) played less than a half. … The Hawks can clinch the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference, and a first-round playoff against the Nets, with a victory at the Knicks and a Bulls loss at home against the Wizards Wednesday. The Bulls will claim the fifth spot with a victory or if both teams lose Wednesday. The Hawks would finish sixth and get a first-round matchup with the Pacers. The Hawks have split the season series with both the Nets and Pacers this season.
• John Rohde of The Oklahoman: Thunder three-time All-Star point guard Russell Westbrook has never missed a game in the NBA and has the league's longest active streak at 393 consecutive games played. OKC (60-21) closes out the regular season at 7 p.m. Wednesday against the Milwaukee Bucks (37-44) at Chesapeake Energy Arena, but Thunder coach Scott Brooks wouldn't share his starting lineup after Tuesday's practice. Westbrook playfully was asked if there would be a fist fight if Brooks asked him to sit out the finale. “No, no, no. There won't be a fist fight,” Westbrook said with a smile, “but he won't ask me (to do) that.”
• Dan McCarney of the San Antonio Express-News: With all the twists and turns during the 2012-13 regular season, it was only fitting that the Spurs gave us one more on Tuesday, signing Tracy McGrady to fill to roster vacated after the unceremonious whacking of Stephen Jackson. It is the seventh NBA stop for the former franchise player, and eighth as a professional including his recent stint in the Chinese league. He dominated with Qingdao Double Star Eagles, averaging 25 points, 7.2 rebounds and 5.1 assists — the type of numbers he put up as a seven-time All-Star before injuries sapped his athleticism. McGrady won’t find it nearly so easy back in the NBA, where he averaged 5.3 points last season with Atlanta. There’s some speculation that McGrady’s addition had been the end goal all along. But at this point, the most likely explanation is probably the simplest: The Spurs excised what they viewed to be a cancer, and they needed a warm body to help pick up the slack on a Spurs bench that suddenly isn’t so deep. That means chewing up whatever time is available behind starting small forward Kawhi Leonard. And from what Gregg Popovich has said recently, there won’t be much. Leonard, he said, could earn up to 40 minutes a night, leaving precious little for a floor-bound ex-star.
• K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune: Keeping Noah and Gibson healthy is critical during the postseason. The Bulls took Tuesday off, and both players continued treatment on their respective lingering injuries, plantar fasciitis for Noah and a sprained MCL for Gibson. Coach Tom Thibodeau said "it's a possibility" the players will be on minutes limits to start the playoffs, which affects his rotation. "You don't know what the minutes are going to be, so that's another huge factor," Thibodeau said. "We have to get that sorted out in a very short amount of time. "The question is: Are we going to be sharp? You're talking about playoff basketball, where the intensity level is very high and it's the same opponent over and over. Most of the time, games are decided by one or two possessions. So how you matchup with people is critical. A bad matchup for a minute in the playoffs, that's 10 points. We have to be right and ready."
• Brad Townsend of The Dallas Morning News: O.J. Mayo owes an apology to his teammates in general and Vince Carter in particular. In the least, Mayo owes them maximum effort in Wednesday’s season finale against New Orleans. Why Mayo, in coach Rick Carlisle’s opinion, “didn’t compete” during his 28 minutes on the court against Memphis on Monday, is the latest baffler in Mayo’s mystifying late-season swoon. In fact, Mayo’s lack of production and Carlisle’s now-obvious frustration level seemingly increase the likelihood that Wednesday’s game will be his last in a Mavericks uniform. Of course, this could be the finale for some or all of the nine Mavericks who are in the final year of their contract or, as in Mayo’s case, have optional deals for 2013-14. Mayo holds his option, meaning it’s up to him whether to stay at a $4.2 million salary or declare for free agency.
• Scott Bordow of The Arizona Republic: Luis Scola and Goran Dragic were asked whether they would recommend interim head coach Lindsey Hunter returning next season. Both players punted the topic. “That’s a tough question,” Dragic said. “ ... I’m here to play basketball. It’s not my decision to make.” Dragic did say he liked Hunter’s approach to practice. “Alvin (Gentry) was a great coach for the veteran players; he knows when to give them a day off, but for our team we have a young team and we really need to practice hard every day,” Dragic said. “When he (Hunter) took over the team I think we maybe had one or two days off. I think it should be like that.” Scola said he thought Hunter did “a great job. Circumstances were bad and he did as good as he could. But I don’t make those decisions. I’m just a player.” Would a third coach in less than a year be unsettling for the team? “I think it would be a sign of things being bad,” Scola said. “But things are bad.” Suns owner Robert Sarver declined comment when asked about Hunter’s future, and Hunter said no time has been set for a postseason meeting with either General Manager Lance Blanks or President of Basketball Operations Lon Babby.
• David Mayo of MLive.com: One day after Pistons owner Tom Gores bluntly said he wasn't satisfied with on-court performance -- Gores also praised basketball operations, which supports the notion that team president Joe Dumars' job is safe -- Frank said he and his coaching staff want another year to right the ship. Frank noted that the Pistons are ahead of schedule in terms of their financial flexibility this summer because of the Ben Gordon and Tayshaun Prince salary-purging trades within the last year, and said he wants to remain head coach of a franchise in "prime position" to make major moves. "Obviously, you want to be a part of it, because that's why you went through the bleeding," Frank said. "I know, without a doubt, we all want to be back. But at the same time, that's not our decision. "But do I want to be back? Of course, because this is what you signed up for. You want to be part of reshaping the franchise and getting it back to where it was.
• Rick Bonnell of The Charlotte Observer: With a 20-61 record entering the season finale against the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Bobcats might end up with the NBA’s worst record for a second straight season. Charlotte will have a high draft pick and as much as $21 million in room under the salary cap this summer. Owner Michael Jordan and the front office face some big decisions between now and the start of training camp in October. Do they bring back the coaching staff? Which of their free agents do they re-sign? Do they cut ties with power forward Tyrus Thomas? Even what should they call themselves going forward? Coach Mike Dunlap: Winning one out of every four games isn’t the ideal NBA coaching debut, but the Bobcats’ record is about what was predicted at the season’s outset. When Jordan was asked at a season-ticketholder event about Dunlap, the owner said all his major employees’ performances would be reviewed after the season. To Dunlap’s credit, he’s had an impact in player development, the priority he was given when hired. Kemba Walker, Gerald Henderson and Byron Mullens all improved. But Dunlap has had some rocky moments in his interaction with players, particularly veterans.
• Tery Pluto of The Plain Dealer: Kyrie Irving can be great. That's right, the Cavaliers point guard can be great. But he's not there. Not yet. Great players defend. Great players help their team win. Great players find a way to stay on the court for most games. It will be up to Byron Scott or whomever coaches the Cavs to deliver that message next season. At times, Scott has tried. He has pulled Irving from games for a lack of defense. He has talked about Irving's disdain for defense. He consistently compares Irving to Chris Paul, adding that Paul is superior defensively. It's no secret that Irving is a soft defender. That's true of many young players, who believe all that matters is the points next to their name in the box score. The fact the team has yet to come close to the playoffs with him should point out that Irving still has a lot of work to do. … There are times when rolls his eyes or shakes his head in disgust when a teammate makes a poor play. It's kid stuff, but he should know better. None of this is to say Irving is a bad guy or a lousy teammate. But he has some maturing to do, and the Cavs must demand that he do it.
• Jerry Zgoda of the Star Tribune: Timberwolves forward Chase Budinger wants to return to the team next season if an agreement can be reached this summer, but as with any contractual agreement, there’s a bit of fine print. That is, if Rick Adelman returns to coach. Adelman is the reason the Wolves traded the 18th overall pick in last summer’s draft to Houston, where Adelman coached Budinger for three seasons before the pair was reunited in Minnesota. He’s also the reason a California kid wants to remain on the frozen tundra when he becomes an unrestricted free agent free to sign with any team this summer. “I would like to come back,” he said. “I like the organization. I like the staff. I love Adelman.” He saved the most important part for last there. “That’s a big part of it,” he said about the coach who taught a second-round draft pick in 2009 the NBA game. “Our relationship, he knows how I play. I work well in his system. It’s [Adelman’s decision] going to weigh big.”

Matt Bonner, in a fun mailbag on Hardwood Paroxysm:

A couple of weeks ago, there was this obnoxious fan randomly sitting 5 rows behind the bench. The whistle blows and the horn sounds for the first media timeout. At this point in the game, it’s usually quiet as most people are still trying to find their seats and get settled. So, Coach Pop comes to the bench and starts drawing up a play.

Meanwhile, this guy starts screaming, “Put in Bonner! We want Bonner! Come on Pop! Put him in the game!!!”

Coach Pop stopped in the middle of drawing the play, looks up at me and says, “Matty, I didn’t know your dad was coming to the game?”