ESPN NBA

During the great lockout of 2011, ESPN.com's NBA team put together a fun little project, which was ranking every player in the NBA.

We did the #NBArank project, as far as we know, in an entirely new way: We crowd-sourced it. More than 100 voters participated; all kinds of staffers at ESPN.com and the local sites, as well as nearly all of the TrueHoop Network. (We have used the same technique, by the way, to predict how many games every NBA team will win, before the season starts, and beat Vegas. It's an interesting system, but not a perfect one.)

It was a little tricky to figure out precisely whom to include -- at the fringes, in the summer, it's hard to know who is in and who is out of the league. We settled on some rules that left us with, as it happened, precisely 500 players.

As soon as that was decided, well, somebody had to be good ol' Mr. 500.

Hold that thought.

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John Hollinger (Insider) says that for the Sixers to win Game 7, they need to play a lot of Lavoy Allen.

He's been the one player that seemingly can neutralize Kevin Garnett's otherwise massive plus-minus advantage. Garnett is plus-55 for the series -- that's plus-58 when Allen is off the court and minus-3 when he's on it. One much-discussed key is Allen's ability to push Garnett further out and contest his shots, and the numbers back that up -- Garnett is 6-of-17 inside 15 feet against Allen and 19-of-26 when he's off the court. The regular-season numbers, albeit in a smaller sample, support this trend. Garnett was 1-for-7 from the field when Allen played, 21-for-34 when he sat.

But in terms of plus-minus, the impact has been just as great on the offensive end. The change in Philly's production based on the Allen-Garnett dynamic has been jarring: If Allen plays and Garnett doesn't, the Sixers score 121.2 points per 100 possessions; if both play, it's 103.2; and if it's just Garnett, Philly nets only 78.2.

Obviously, it's ridiculous to assign that big a swing to two players, but the data backs up the idea that Allen has made a huge impact (in fact, he quietly leads the team in playoff PER at 18.70, given his ability on the boards and around the basket), and he needs to play a major role in Game 7 if Philly wants to pull the upset.

(Statistical support for this story from NBA.com.)

Also worth noting: The Celtics get 48.5 rebounds per 48 minutes when Allen is on the bench. When Allen plays, that number falls all the way to 31.7. Big difference.

Lavoy Allen is young, big and making his presence felt.

---

I recently visited the Sixers' locker room on a mission to talk to Allen. It went like this:

We ranked NBA players 1 to 500 last summer. Somebody had to be Mr. 500. I can't imagine that felt great.

I didn't really worry about it too much. I got a little publicity. That's what I liked about it. People didn't know who I was before that. So I didn't really worry about it too much.

You didn't look at the people ahead of you and think, Come on!

No. No. Not really.

All right, look, that was us. ESPN.com.

That was you?

We had 150 or so voters, and we ranked all the NBA players. I'm here to apologize. We were wrong.

It's all good.

If I asked you who 482 was, do you know who that was?

I have no idea.

But you know who number 500 was, though, right?

I do. I do.

I should thank you guys.

You're very big about this. But I'm telling you, we're watching you play, and emailing each other and saying, Man, we did a bad job on that.

I don't blame you guys. A lot of guys on the list hadn't played an NBA game yet. Someone had to be at the bottom.

The truth of the matter is, there are a lot of players we hadn't seen play much. We did a bad job. But you're killing it out there now. We couldn't have been more wrong. You're going to be ranked much higher next year, I promise you that.

Thank you.

On the first day of the 2012 TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown -- where some of the world's finest basketball analysts compete against a crowd of bloggers and my mom for glory, fame and perhaps an off-beat prize or two -- Matthew Stahlhut predicted the Denver Nuggets would lose to the Lakers in seven games.

It was an unremarkable pick; two others chose the exact same thing.

But Benjamin Morris, last year's winner, picked the Lakers in five. And as it happens, that's the difference, for now, between first and second place.

Morris and Stahlhut both came new to the Smackdown last year. Both have worked in sports gambling professionally. And, in a trend that's emerging, both make very similar, and very good, picks.

Last year Morris won. Stahlhut came in third, a victim of underestimating the Mavericks not once, but twice.

This year, consider their many identical predictions:

• Bulls in five over the Sixers
• Heat in five over New York
• Pacers in five over Orlando
• Celtics in six over the the Hawks
• Spurs in five over Utah
• Thunder in five over Dallas
• Clippers in six over Memphis
• Heat in five over the Pacers
• Spurs in five over the Clippers
• Thunder in five over the Lakers

All identical.

But how many games it would take the Lakers to move on against the Nuggets, that, so far, is the difference between first and second place. Two points, the bonus for correctly picking the number of games.

And another looms: Both picked the Celtics to beat the 76ers, but again Morris (who tells us he has evidence picking the home team in five or the road team in six is a best practice, regardless of talent discrepancy) chose five. He won't be getting the two bonus points, as that series is tied 3-3.

Stahlhut chose seven, and could gain a further two-point advantage if the Celtics hold court in Saturday's Game 7.

If the 76ers win, however, both leaders get no points at all, like almost all of the rest of the field. It would be a meaningless series, in terms of the Smackdown, other than that last year's runner-up, Stephen Ilardi, would be saved from one of the lowest scores in Smackdown history.

Meanwhile, most of the rest of the field feels let down by either the Nuggets or the Grizzlies. Those close-fought series both went to Los Angeles teams. Had things gone differently, neither Stahlhut nor Morris would be at the top, and Hollinger, Galletti or "the crowd" would be the ones with something to brag about.

As for my mom ... she's just three points behind former champion Jeff Ma and two points ahead of Ilardi. She's also essentially pointing at the left-field fence as she steps to the plate for the final three series. So that making picks won't interfere with a trip to visit family, she has already predicted the whole rest of the season.

Coming tomorrow: Western Conference Finals picks from the entire field.

• When your PER is higher than your age, you're Kyrie Irving. Or a short list of other players. Also, free agency has been the bane of Cleveland fans. But now that the Cavaliers have Kyrie Irving, the kind of player anyone would want to play with, free agency could become their friend, writes David Thorpe.
• The Pacers have not gone small much, and don't like to go small. So if the Heat go small ... what happens?
• Timothy Varner on 48 Minutes of Hell: "Chris Paul and Tony Parker finished third and fifth in MVP voting. They share a position. One could make an argument that they were the league’s best two point guards this season. Coming into this series, it will be fun to speculate whether Parker or Paul will win 'the matchup'. ... The problem, of course, is that matchup doesn’t exist -- at least not in the hero ball sense. Paul vs. Parker is not a Hollywood boxing bout. It isn’t even a true blue Castillo-Corrales slug fest. It’s a paper tiger. Within their program, the Spurs prefer to feature wings who can defend multiple positions. Bruce Bowen is the historic standard, but the Spurs regularly use Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, Manu Ginobili, and Stephen Jackson to defend multiple positions. Ginobili might be deployed against 1s, 2s, and 3s; Jackson against 2s, 3s, and 4s. And so on. This doesn’t make the Spurs entirely unique, but it does point to one of the more intriguing matchups of the series: Danny Green vs. Chris Paul."
• Something is up with the Lakers' pick-and-roll defense. Kevin Ding of the Orange County Register: "In their previous road game, the Lakers played pick-and-roll coverage incorrectly 92 percent of the time, according to [Coach Mike] Brown's own analysis of the Game 6 loss in Denver. It is hardly shocking that they were shredded by a far more talented, more focused Thunder attack."
• Paul Shirley came across a YouTube video of a big college dunk from his Iowa State days. He writes about it for ChicagoSide: "In this particular play, my college teammate, Jamaal Tinsley, made into fools several members of the University of Colorado backcourt before throwing the ball to me for a one-handed dunk that might even be called ferocious, if you need an adjective. Tinsley’s ball-handling tricks served as the final sentence in a masterful short story; my dunk was the exclamation point. The crowd released its tension in an avalanche of happy noise. For me, it was an incomparable rush; better than the most intense sexual encounter I’ve ever had. (Which might be an indictment of my sex life, but probably isn’t -- sorry, no hyperlinks here.) Even as I watched the video more than a decade later, I felt something similar to sexual release: a chill down my spine, sagging shoulders, relaxation in my lower back. I’ve never done cocaine. But that feeling -- the sense that I had just brought about a palpable crescendo of enthusiasm in 14,000 people, most of whom were paying rapt attention to my every movement -- is exactly what I imagine cocaine would be like: intense, immediate, and incredibly pleasurable. And just as dangerous -- because that feeling was one of the reasons I played basketball."
• A long-simmering debate among athletes: What matters more, the number of miles (or in basketball, minutes played) or age? The New York Times digs into the issue by looking into running research and finds ... science doesn't have a clear answer yet.
• Beware the columnist who has been watching lots of "Law & Order" re-runs.
• College hoops statistics suggest that you can't do much to make your opponents miss 3s. The winning strategy appears to be, especially if you're the favorites, to expend your energy trying to limit the number of attempts.
• Blake Griffin says he is not concerned about being labeled a flopper.
• Losing playoff games by big margins does not bode well for the Lakers.
• Zach Lowe of SI.com: "I am astonished on a daily basis by how many fans, both in Boston and elsewhere, think the Celtics are a good offensive team, and are thus surprised they have struggled to score against the Hawks and the Sixers. The misunderstanding seems to come from the fact that a) Boston has very famous players on its team; and b) the Celtics rank fifth overall in field-goal percentage and eighth in three-point percentage. So let me put this as clearly as I can: The Celtics are a bad offensive team. They were so-so last season and in 2009-10, and have been in continuing decline on offense for three seasons now. It’s wonderful that they shoot with great accuracy, especially from three-point range, but accurate shooting does not alone make a team good at scoring points. Field-goal percentage is no way to judge offense. It does not account for how many shots a team generates, how often it gets to the foul line and what sorts of shots it attempts. And in news that broke three years ago, this is where Boston fails."
• Now online in its entirety, for free: The documentary Small Market, Big Heart, made on a shoestring with the goal of humanizing the plight of Kings fans, who have long done a hell of a job supporting the often-miserable Kings.
• I think this is humor from Kobe Bryant. Or maybe not. (Via Slam.)
• Will James Jones make it back into the Heat rotation as a zone buster?
• Goran Dragic is a sexy free agent name. For perspective, his stats are very similar to Jarrett Jack's.

Sandy Weil is the Director of Analytics at Sportsmetricians Consulting, the researcher behind groundbreaking hot hand research and a repeat contributor to HoopIdea.

Let’s face it: the middle of the NBA season can be a dull time.

But it could be much more exciting if the NBA adopted a schedule like they have in the big European soccer leagues.

In those leagues, they carve out space for this additional tournament during their season and everyone competes for both the regular season and tournament titles. Usually, this means multiple competition formats are underway simultaneously. They have the "table" (the regular season: a full slate of home-and-home games) and, going on at the same time, an elimination-based "cup competition" (examples include the FA Cup in the UK and Copa del Rey in Spain).

By adopting a season format modeled after European soccer, the NBA can simultaneously:

• Reduce the number of games
• Add the excitement of a mid-season, single-elimination tournament
• Eliminate the All-Star game while keeping the spectacle of All-Star weekend
• Boost mid-week TV ratings
• Increase national television revenue
• Increase competitiveness by giving owners and players another trophy to compete for.

Let's imagine the following season scenario: The NBA season starts on Christmas Day, with a big slate of games. The regular season consists of a 58-game format where each team plays a home-and-home against everyone else. Then in February, when the season starts to drag a bit, the NBA holds a single-elimination tournament.

Call it the Commissioner's Cup.

Giving the top team in each conference a bye in the first round of the tournament creates the equivalent of a 32-team bracket (five rounds). The NBA holds the first three rounds on Monday and Tuesday nights in February, with Wednesday through Sunday nights reserved for "regular season games."

The culmination of the Commissioner's Cup is a neutral site Final Four-style weekend event in place of the current All-Star Game weekend.

After that tournament, the NBA finishes off the regular season as they do now and begin the playoffs at the same time in April.

In this format, all teams would play between 59 and 63 games. But since the NBA Final Four games replace the All-Star Game, we end up with between 59 and 61 during the same time frame as the current, compressed regular season's 66 games.

This doesn’t mean we’d need to have all those back-to-backs (or back-to-back-to-backs). If the season began on Christmas, a 59- or 60-game season would make for exactly the same game frequency as the normal 82-game season.

There are some certainly details to work out. For instance, how should they seed the teams and how to decide who hosts the early round games?

In the FA Cup, they draw the match-ups at random, including who gets to host the game. That would be one option. Maybe one good middle ground is to randomly draw the match-ups from each region, with coin flips for who gets to host each game -- promoting regional match-ups preserves a bit of the rivalries that would get lost in switching to the 58-game regular season slate.

The most obvious downside is that teams are guaranteed to host only 29 home games each season, instead of the current 41 -- a 30 percent drop in games. Since most teams will host zero or one Commissioner's Cup games, the tournament wouldn’t much offset the deficit in games.

To make it work, the first round of TV contracts that include the single elimination tournament games would need to see a nice bump in revenue because of the meaningful games being played in the middle of February.

If the NBA is talking about shortening the season, why not also add needed excitement to the middle months of the season?

SHOULD THE NBA ADOPT A SHORTER SEASON? JOIN THE CONVERSATION HERE:

• Twitter: Go to @HoopIdea and tweet to us with the hashtag #hoopidea

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• Email us at hoopidea@gmail.com

On Hardwood Paroxysm Ian Levy has pretty pictures of teams' most effective plays, compared to how often they run them. Some lessons:

Cutting big men: Nice if you can get 'em

The first thing you notice is that big men cutting are most teams' most efficient plays. Fantastic.

But that's only so useful. By the time a big man catches the ball on his way to the hoop, the defense is already in dire straits.

In other words, "really easy plays when the defense is broken and the ball's in the paint" are good. But of course, most teams can't decide to run that play every time down. It's simply not available without the defense cooperating. Those plays are rare even on the most efficient teams.

Too much Kobe Bryant

The Lakers have some plays that they use way more than they evidently should. The first is (surprise!) Kobe Bryant isolations. Levy writes:

Of the Lakers’ five most productive offensive outcomes, none occurred more than 200 times on the season. Meanwhile nearly 1,100 Lakers’ offensive possessions were used by Kobe Bryant in either isolations, post-ups, or pick-and-rolls. The offensive efficiency the Lakers received from those possessions fell in between what they got from Metta World Peace in the post (0.84 ppp) and Ramon Sessions in the pick-and-roll (0.88 ppp).

Ouch. (Note: Ian is a very nice man, and he's telling nothing but the truth. Please be kind.)

Not enough Kobe Bryant

Here's the thing, though: Those 1,100 or so inefficient Bryant plays Levy spoke of? Those are the ones -- isolation, post-ups, as the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll, where Bryant gets the ball and then the action begins. Those are the plays where Bryant is in total control. Those are from the "in my teammates I do not trust" playbook.

Those are also the plays where the defense gets to say "oh, look, there goes Kobe doing his thing, let's load up on that."

However, the Lakers' best plays? Many of them are Bryant too. But they're Bryant relying on team actions to get him the ball where he can be more effective.

Look at Levy's charts! Bryant spotting up: Fantastic! Bryant coming off a screen: Among the team's best plays.

Those are plays where neither Bryant, nor the defense, can be sure Bryant will get the ball. Both struggle with that uncertainty.

Meanwhile, when Phil Jackson unloaded in his book on Bryant's over-reliance on his own scoring abilities, he didn't specifically complain that Bryant shot too much. He complained that he craved too much control, for instance by breaking plays to catch the inbound pass late in games, instead of working team actions to try to get somebody, Bryant or otherwise, open.

Bryant wouldn't work off the ball like Jackson -- and, now we learn, efficiency statistics -- demand.

Too much Andrew Bynum in the post

The Lakers' other play that seems to be run more than can be justified by its efficiency, is Andrew Bynum in the post. It is the Lakers' most common playtype, but their ninth most efficient.

These statistics all come from Synergy Sports Technology, where you can watch video of those plays.

Here's an informed guess, after watching lots of Bynum video for a post last week: All Bynum post-ups are not created equal. When he catches the ball close to the hoop, he is deadly. But he is not averse to catching the ball with a man on his back 15 feet or further from the hoop. And there, things don't look nearly as fluid. The spin move that, from good position, would have led to a chop shot, now ends with a spinning, off-balance big man deciding between dribble-probe and jumper, neither of which is a specialty.

Bad Bynum post-ups bring no joy at all. The good ones, though ...

The power of open shooters

The Spurs ended the regular season with the most efficient offense in basketball.

Their most common playtype was Tony Parker handling the ball in the pick-and-roll. That is no surprise at all. But would you believe that Richard Jefferson, Danny Green, Matt Bonner, Gary Neal and Kawhi Leonard spotting up were all more efficient per possession?

What I'm getting at there is: Look at how the Spurs managed to squeeze offensive productivity from inexpensive players. Asking players like that to create doesn't appear to work very well. But asking them to play alongside stars like Parker and Manu Ginobili, and to catch-and-shoot the open jumper ... that just works.

(Side note: One of the Spurs' least efficient options, and most over-used, is Tim Duncan posting up.)

Similarly, the Lakers have been getting excellent productive from Steve Blake and Matt Barnes spotting up.

James Harden, oh my

The Thunder finished the regular season with the league's second-best offense. And while these charts generally make ball-dominant guards look pretty inefficient (Bryant and Parker, for instance) ... Harden is amazing. Three of the Thunder's five most efficient playtypes are Harden , whether spotting up, isolating, or handling the ball in the pick-and-roll. He's a very rare player in that even when he is essentially a ballhog, flying solo, he's still, as the Mavericks will attest, very tough to stop.

That no doubt has a lot to do with the many potent offensive players he plays with. The defense can't just load up on James Harden with Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka around. But still -- lots of players have great teammates, and very few produce like this.

The Clippers are winning a reputation as some of the league's most consistent and spectacular floppers, which might lead you to suspect they're gaining some kind of unfair referee advantage over their first-round opponents, the Memphis Grizzlies.

But if that's so, there are other factors in play, too.

Take a look at which teams are shooting the most free throws -- per possession -- in the playoffs as of today:

1. Memphis Grizzlies
2. Miami Heat
3. Los Angeles Clippers
4. Philadelphia 76ers
5. Dallas Mavericks
6. Utah Jazz
7. Oklahoma City Thunder
8. New York Knicks
9. San Antonio Spurs
10. Denver Nuggets
11. Indiana Pacers
12. Los Angeles Lakers
13. Boston Celtics
14. Orlando Magic
15. Chicago Bulls
16. Atlanta Hawks

In other words, yes the Clippers are high on the list, but the Grizzlies lead the league in getting to the line so far.

Meanwhile, the other team that has been accused of getting all the calls -- at least by Danilo Gallinari -- is the other L.A. team. In fact, the Lakers trail all but four playoff teams, including Gallinari's Nuggets, when it comes to shooting freebies.

Statistical support provided by NBA.com.

• John Hollinger (Insider) says the Bulls can get back into their series against the Sixers -- playing without Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah in the regular season they were much better than this. "The Bulls have to start Taj Gibson -- who is one of their best players anyway -- and play long stretches with Luol Deng at the 4. This frees up minutes for Korver, spaces the floor for everybody, and may even allow some small looks with C.J. Watson and sharpshooter John Lucas on the court together."
• Not too long ago, the Pacers were entirely unsure about Frank Vogel as a head coach. Tonight, they might be headed to the second round.
• Things are just getting brutal for Kings fans. Rob McAllister on Cowbell Kingdom: "With this public relations campaign already heading toward its own death bed, the Kings owners are going to need a tougher strategy to be granted relocation. Insert the lawyers. The family has someone with forty years of experience in anti-trust suits waiting to strike. Attorney Barry McNeil is no slouch and may be a formidable foe to Commissioner Stern and the league’s legal team. The Maloofs’ lawyers have sought email and phone conversations between the NBA and Sacramento all in an effort to build a case against the league if the owners attempt to block the move to Anaheim. There is no doubt this will get much uglier before it gets prettier."
• An overseas report of Danilo Gallinari saying, essentially, that everyone knows the Lakers get all the calls.
• You know how Metta World Peace elbowed James Harden? Could happen to anyone at work.
• Steve Kerr makes the case for raising the age limit to 20. And it all makes sense ... in theory. But in practice ... it simply doesn't work like that. Lawyer Michael McCann explains this best.
• 19-year-old 6-7 athletic French shooting guard, anyone?
• Charles Barkley says LeBron James is the best player in the world, has been closing games well for a long time, and was probably just tired at the end of the Finals last year. Also, he says Michael Jordan has texted him, angry that Barkley has said Jordan has not been a good owner.
• Of all those teams trailing 3-1, Memphis might have the best shot at getting to Game 6. Neil Paine's analysis (Insider) shows they have two edges that matter in regression models: Homecourt in Game 5, and an opponent that didn't play great defense in the regular season.
• Jan Vesely's famous kiss gets kind of meta.
• Wow. If you live in New York and want to see the Knicks play the Heat, the prices are similar whether you buy tickets to Madison Square Garden or similar seats in Miami -- along with airfare and hotel.
• Is a Brandon Roy comeback still theoretically possible? Also, a year into the Blazers' GM search comes news that one interview has been completed. It's a little more complicated than that, but the upshot is that they have some candidates they like and expect to make a hire before the draft.
• Uni Watch readers come up with new looks for New Orleans.

• Pop quiz: Which NBA team had the best offense in the NBA this season, by a healthy margin? Answer. John Hollinger is a little salty (Insider) about how the Spurs have been ignored: "Don't let San Antonio's 27-3 mark in its past 30 games with the Big Three and near-certain home-court advantage for every remaining series distract you. And by all means, feel free to ignore the fact the Spurs are 19-1 on the road in their past 20 games the Big Three have played. After three methodical beatdowns of Utah, including one of the sweetest last-second plays you'll ever see to get a Matt Bonner 3 at the end of the first half of Game 3, the scary thought is that San Antonio's defense is catching up to its offense. The thought entering this series was that Utah's bruising post game was the perfect attack to face San Antonio, especially after Zach Randolph beat them up in the playoffs last spring. Instead, a spry-looking Tim Duncan has completely bottled up Al Jefferson, Boris Diaw has provided a much-needed post defender at the 4 and the Spurs are fourth in playoff defensive efficiency -- a mark that would be even better were it not for the copious amounts of garbage time in the first three games. So keep ignoring them. They'll just be quietly chuckling while they await their next overmatched opponent, standing 13 wins from one of the greatest closing kicks in league annals."
• People are all upset that Al Jefferson said the Spurs are fantastic, and better than the Jazz. I don't think people should ever get in trouble for telling the truth.
• It was suggested that Utah's "big" lineup, which features Derrick Favors, Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson, might give San Antonio trouble. But the Silver and Black Machine has sliced and diced every combination of Jazz players they've faced. Just like in the regular season, they've spread the floor, attacked the weakest link in the defense and drilled open 3s.
• Let's give some credit to Scott Brooks for this: he knows how to let James Harden do his thing.
• Why are ACLs so vulnerable? Turns out even NBA superstars can't overcome genetics.
• NBA tickets for one dollar. From a Bobcats press release: "Under the promotion, season tickets could be priced as low as $43 for an upper-level seat, with the cost per game equaling the draft pick the team receives in the lottery. For example, if the Bobcats get the No. 1 pick, the price would be $1 per game, or $43 for the season (41 regular season games and two preseason games). Even if the Bobcats receive the No. 4 pick, the $4-per-game cost would amount to $172 for the season. This is a price point that has not been available in the past, inviting customers who may not have been able to become Bobcats season ticket holders previously." NOTE: This promotion is over ... those super cheap seats are sold out.
• Don't look now, but Jrue Holiday is starting to cash in on his star potential.
• Nick Flynt with a two part breakdown of the Clippers defense that rarely broke down in Game 3.
• Among the many things the NBA should take pride in: Very few games interrupted by chickens. Although there was that Hawk incident.
• Carmelo Anthony hung most of his 41 points on the Heat when matched up against Shane Battier. Brian Windhorst wonders why Spoelstra didn't put LeBron James on Anthony down the stretch, and I'm wondering whether it's time to officially retire Battier's "Stopper" label.
• Not enough rebounds. Too many turnovers and long jump shots. The problems facing the Bulls are the same ones they usually pose to their opponents.
• The Celtics are banged up, especially on the wings.
• Nets Are Scorching blogger Devin Kharpertian got a familiar feeling watching James Harden slice through the Mavericks defense.
• It's almost certain that they won't come back and win the series, but that shouldn't stop New York fans from feeling good about the Knicks' thrilling Game 4 win.
• A lot of what happens on the court is a competition for some kind of swagger. All that working out, and running around, though ... and just eating some yogurt might have done the same thing.
• Be careful using something you see in one playoff game as insight into what will happen in the next playoff game. They're all different.
• Reggie Evans knows how to stop Marreese Speights from setting a good pick.
• A frame-by-frame look at Miami's airtight defense.
• The Pacers have had some odd lapses against the Magic. Jared Wade has some critical feedback, "Stan Van Gundy has been drawing up excellent out of bounds plays all series. This was one of them. But it really only worked because it was a quick-hitter to be executed against a defense that forgot the basic fundamentals of guarding a player you learn in second grade. Fortunately for Van Gundy, Paul George complied."

Raptors coach Dwane Casey says of Kobe Bryant: "In the flow of the game, he's a willing passer. But in crunch time, he is looking to get his. He's not looking to pass, and I tell my team that."

Watch Ty Lawson in the clip above, on the play that ends with a Steve Blake 3-pointer. It starts at about the 55-second mark. Bryant makes Lawson look entirely foolish for having left Blake so open in the reckless pursuit of Bryant.

But Lawson is playing from the playbook lots of teams use against the Lakers, and it often works.

Check out this photograph or this video.

The recipe was pretty simple and abnormally effective: Just send all kinds of defense at Kobe Bryant.

The remedy for Bryant, however, was always simple too. Pass. Just pass the ball to the open man. It hasn't happened much.

But it worked like crazy for the Lakers in Sunday's Game 4 which put the Lakers in the driver's seat against the Nuggets -- and not just on that play. A great crunch-time performance turned what could have been a 2-2 series into a deep 3-1 hole for the Nuggets, and it points to how the Lakers could be a bigger threat than they would seem to be.

Statistics show all kinds of ways that in crunch time the Lakers have generally underperformed. Over the past decade, they have won plenty of close games, titles and a reputation in crunch time.

In 2011-12, the Lakers have been near the top of team performance in crunch time, by most analyses. But they bounce around from season to season. Over the decade, the Lakers have had the NBA's best offense all game long, but only the 12th-best effective field goal percentage in the last three minutes in which they trail by three points or fewer or are tied. Over the same sample, the Lakers' total performance at both ends -- by the simple measure of who has outscored opponents -- has ranked 10th.

Middling crunch-time performance isn't a crisis, but you'd expect better from the team that has been essentially the best in the NBA generally over the period.

And Synergy Sports technology play-type analysis suggests one problem area was a heavy reliance on an inefficient play -- isolating Kobe Bryant. It's the Lakers' go-to late-game play, and it is just about their worst play, because it forces the Lakers to attack where the defense is strongest. Amazing as Bryant is, that's a tall order.

If Bryant is going to continue to hit the open man, however, like in the video above, opposing coaches will have plenty to worry about.

One of the most likely solutions: Opponents will stop sending such big crowds at Bryant. Perhaps he'll have some room to create high-percentage shots. Paradoxically, the passing he did in Game 4 might be the very thing to turn him into the crunch-time killer he has long been said to be.

• Playing alongside Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire got very few touches, and punched a fire extinguisher.
• Chris Bosh works for great post position, with a matchup advantage, but it's all for naught as LeBron James and Dwyane Wade fire "heat checks."
• Winning, putting up great numbers, Andrew Bynum often looks as frustrated as any player in the league 'cause he can't get the ball much from a Kobe Bryant-dominated offense.

It can be tough to be a really good player, playing with players who shoot the ball a ton.

Kurt Rambis on NBA Today.

Also, he picks a winner in the expected second-round matchup between the Thunder and Lakers.

With 54.3 seconds left in the Lakers' Game 2 win over the Nuggets, Kobe Bryant was looking to inbound the basketball.

Andrew Bynum put his butt into skinny Nugget JaVale McGee and won lovely position in the paint, a bounce pass away from Bryant.

A close examination of the game tape reveals that, up to that point, Bynum had caught the ball that close to the hoop 11 times. He had scored 10 times, the only miss coming when he lofted a shot perhaps only the freakishly long and athletic McGee could have blocked. (Add in Bynum's other, tougher shots -- some tricky spin moves after catching the ball far from the hoop, a turnaround jumper with a short shot clock -- and Bynum still finished, as usual, with the Lakers' best field goal percentage, hitting 60 percent.)

Getting the ball to Bynum with a foot in the paint, against the Nuggets, might be the best offensive option any team has in these playoffs, and there he was.

Bynum raised an arm, a 7-foot target, waving and calling for the ball. But, perhaps wanting to burn clock in the name of protecting the Lakers' six-point lead, Bryant looked elsewhere.

Bynum retreated to the corner. Ramon Sessions dribbled off the excess seconds. Then the big man tried again, this time with even more conviction, and got open again. With about 45 seconds left in the game. It was perfect, for an instant: deadly proximity to the hoop and an easy passing lane for Sessions. Bynum barked for the ball.

Sessions hesitated.

Then, oddly, Gasol -- the Laker most sensitive to Bynum's value around the rim, and the player who makes the biggest effort to get him the ball where he can use it -- cut to the hoop, bringing the frenetic defender Kenneth Faried into Bynum's orbit.

Sessions' pass was nearly impossible now. The moment had passed. Bynum had to clear out of the paint, which he did while swinging his long arm like a steamed John McEnroe would a tennis racket.

It was one of the most obvious "dammit" moments of the NBA season.

---

Harvard Business School's Teresa Amabile and psychologist Steven Kramer have researched what makes people miserable at work, and wrote this for The Washington Post:

Over the past 15 years, we have studied what makes people happy and engaged at work. In discovering the answer, we also learned a lot about misery at work. ...

What we discovered is that the key factor you can use to make employees miserable on the job is to simply keep them from making the progress they expect to make in meaningful work.

People want to make a valuable contribution, and feel great when they make progress toward doing so.

---

Andrew Bynum leads the league in looking exasperated. He is often seen as childish because of it. What's one lost chance? Nothing, really. The thing that happened to Bynum on that play happens to everybody. Grow up, kid.

But what happened on that play happens to Bynum a lot.

There was a play with 7:20 left in the first quarter where Bynum was set up in the kill zone, where he essentially didn't miss all night. Two Lakers skipped clear opportunities to get him the ball. Bynum capped that episode with his palms to the sky, begging for answers.

Minutes later, he picked for Bryant on the right side. Both defenders stayed glued to the living embodiment of the term "shooting guard." Uncovered, Bynum rolled to the hoop smelling a dunk. But he never got the ball. Even sandwiched between Arron Afflalo and McGee, Bryant fired away, drawing a foul. Alone at the rim, Bynum jumped to catch Bryant's shot, perhaps thinking it was a pass. After it fell through the net, Lakers ran to congratulate Bryant on the and-one. Bynum hung his head.

With 6:28 left in the game, Bryant drove hard to the hoop, drawing a crowd, and forced up a difficult, off-balance reverse layup that missed badly. Meanwhile, Bynum was standing right in front of Bryant, a yard from the rim, open. A few minutes later, Bynum posted up early in the possession, but didn't get the ball and was then doubled. He spun away from the double-team to the hoop, finding plenty of open space. A well-timed lob would have been deadly. Instead, Bryant shot a long, contested 3, which missed.

In the locker room after the game, ESPNLosAngeles.com's Arash Markazi noted that despite the win, Bynum didn't seem happy: "I left a lot on the court today," the center explained. "I worked way too hard before the game to let that happen. I could have had a perfect game. ... I left a lot of things out there tonight."

Maybe he was critiquing himself, but this is the tack Bynum often takes when he's frustrated -- he blames himself to keep the peace. But the nonverbal messages he sent during the game spoke more loudly.

---

Bryant and Bynum have never had the easiest of relationships -- at times both have struggled to honor the player code to keep it in the family, and not to trash a teammate in the media. In 2007, angling for a trade, Bryant was famously caught on video in an expletive-laden tirade calling, mainly, for the Lakers to ditch Bynum.

There have been highs and lows ever since. The story is that they are in a good place now, comparatively. The worst parts of their relationship are said to now be water under the bridge. But close to the heart of a relationship between these two bucket-hungry stars is the desire to get the rock.

Bryant says he and Bynum forged a friendship over All-Star Weekend. As it happens, at the tail end of that weekend, late Sunday evening, I asked Bynum why so many Lakers games end with one of the team's least efficient plays -- a Bryant isolation. He looked glum, shrugged, and said, "I don't know, man." Then he added: "Because some guys get paid big bucks to hit shots, so that's what they've got to do."

Meanwhile, it's a cinch to make the case Bynum is at the top of the list of Lakers who need the ball more, as many have noted. This season, Andrew Bynum's player efficiency rating -- an all-purpose summary of box score contributions -- was tied for 10th in the league, similar to reigning MVP Derrick Rose's. That's substantially better than Bryant's. Moreover, Bynum's true shooting percentage dwarfed that of Bryant, who finished tied for 160th in shooting efficiency.

These days it's commonplace to hear Bynum called the best offensive center in the game -- perhaps even the best overall, given Dwight Howard's fall from grace.

On most teams, a player of that description would have the ball constantly.

And yet, Bynum doesn't get the ball much. Bryant finished the season with the league's highest usage rate -- Bynum is 79th. No other player in the top 20 of PER has a usage rate so low.

(A similar tale plays out in New York, where another famously irate player, Amare Stoudemire, had the league's 56th-highest usage rate, despite being a more efficient option than Carmelo Anthony, who was sixth league-wide in usage.)

The disparity gets worse as the game goes on. No player hogs the ball like Bryant does in crunch time, and that's precisely the time in the game when it's toughest for the Lakers' center to get a touch. In the first half, Bynum's usage rate is 24, in the second half it falls 19.3 -- that's Nikola Pekovic territory. In overtime it falls further, to a Kris Humphries-like 17.

In his prime, Shaquille O'Neal's usage rate was consistently over 30. Even though he now shoots far less, Tim Duncan still sports a career average usage rate of 27.7.

In the second half, Bynum shoots less than once for every three minutes he plays. Bryant shoots twice as often. NBA.com's advanced stats tool tells us that in the last minute of games within five points, Bryant's usage rate this season was 65.3, compared to Bynum's 19.4. In other words, for every late possession that Bynum uses, Bryant uses three and then some.

Which means that Bynum is very often a crunch-time spectator -- whether he fights for position or not, he's unlikely to catch a pass. This is despite the fact that Bynum's scoring efficiency gets only better as the game goes on: His true shooting percentage and effective field goal percentage both peak in the fourth quarter, likely because he gets the ball in that time of the game -- maybe -- only if conditions are perfect.

Surely just about every player envisions great things for himself, and Bynum is clearly no exception. So imagine how the center for the world's most glamorous team -- a franchise with a particularly rich history of all-world centers -- feels about being the best player in the world not to get the ball.

Bynum knows he has already put in the work to do incredibly special and rare things on the basketball court. He has dunked on Shaq and been mentored by Kareem. He has been coached by Phil and won two titles. He knows he could be the star of Lakers highlights, hitting game winners. He knows the Lakers can win even more games than they do. If only he got to do his thing.

So if those 15 years of work by the Harvard researchers tell us anything, they tell us that frustration is inevitable if you are a talented big man for the Lakers in this era.

Indeed, Bynum looks upset at work an awful lot. He acts out in a way that the closest Lakers observers say is a sign of his frustration that he's not allowed to do his thing. Some see that as a sign of the degree to which he just doesn't get it.

But it could also be the opposite -- a sign of just how well he does get it.

Statistical support provided by NBA.com.

• A few thoughts about the future of televised basketball. High quality cameras are getting tiny, and people are already wearing them while playing hoops. Wouldn't mind seeing the Kevin Durant-view of some of the playoffs' best plays. Also ... I'm willing to bet there will be cameras on remote control helicopters in NBA arenas before too long. They already fly blimps around in arenas, and they already fly little helicopters with cameras over and around snowboarders and the like. This will happen.
• Boris Diaw will once again start, in the playoffs, for one of the best teams in the game. About six weeks ago that same Diaw was let go by the Bobcats, the worst team in the history of the game. Either the Spurs are doomed, or somewhere in there is a lesson about the value of corporate culture.
• Rob Mahoney, on The Two Man Game, with props for Shawn Marion. "Marion has led the Mavericks in rebounding in both games thus far, scored 32 total points on just 23 shots, and also happens to be providing a master class on how to defend Kevin Durant."
• John Hollinger's not a doctor, but he has some smart thoughts about Ray Allen's health (Insider): "Allen is listed as day-to-day, but those bone spurs aren't going to magically go away until he gets surgery to remove them. I'm not a doctor, but I don't know what's going to change by Friday or Sunday or next week, or next month, to make his condition any different. I suspect there's a decent chance he's already played his last game this year."
• On HoopSpeak, Brett Koremenos accuses the Nuggets of stage fright in Game 1: "Kenneth Faried and JaVale McGee are experiencing the NBA’s second season for the first time while Danilo Gallinari and Corey Brewer are only on their second go-rounds. Even Ty Lawson and Arron Afflalo, while not new to the atmosphere, are experiencing it in new and bigger roles." The Nuggets can score in the paint. Also, a memo to Ty Lawson from Roundball Mining Company's Kalen: "The minute Lawson resigns as an active threat, the Lakers have won."
• The Celtics are in a pickle. On the road, missing Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen, after having been outrebounded and outplayed. There seems to be something keeping Kevin Garnett from playing anything like his best. Is this the end of an era we're sniffing? At CelticsHub, they certainly aren't sounding the alarm yet. They're still upbeat, talking about how Paul Pierce will get to the line more without Rondo. That means something.
• David West shall lead them. What a great signing that has been for Indiana.
• If Amare Stoudemire left the arena wearing a sling ... is it really a cut we're worried about? And, it wasn't that long ago Stoudemire was joking on Twitter about punching stuff.
• Chandler Parsons. Not sure what he's doing exactly. But he's doing it hard.
• LeBron's teeth know the score.
• Some very colorful new-breed boxscores show James Harden, Serge Ibaka, Tim Duncan, Reggie Evans and Nick Young have all been even more spectacular than you thought. Also, with Caron Butler injured, Young will need to keep it up.
• Are people still saying Rajon Rondo did nothing but trip? Show them this.
• Where's this HoopIdea thing headed? Hopefully not here.
• Suns fans, how optimistic are you this offseason will restore the glory, or anything like it?
• European buzzer beaters.
• A legal mind weighs in on those Jordan Hill charges.
• Some players are looking younger and fitter, now that the playoffs are here.

HOW WE THINK ABOUT CRUNCH TIME

The most basic rule of assessing crunch time performance is: Did the last shot go in? Then great, that was a good shot, and the guy who shot it is a good shooter who knows what to do with the game on the line.

It sounds simplistic. But it really happens that way. Look around. Anyone who just made a big shot for a team that won a big game is said to be clutch. And that's it, really. No one else makes the list.

By this rule, Kevin Durant was clutch this weekend -- with the game on the line, he made a very tough shot. But the Clippers' key play, where some team action between Chris Paul and Reggie Evans led to a layup -- is a far better example of crunch time play at its best.

HERO BALL: IT'S TOUGH

The Thunder have all kinds of beautiful offensive sets with clever ways to get players nice clean looks. With nine seconds left, down one, they tossed most of that playbook, content to run some action that ended with Kevin Durant isolated, Hero Ball style, at the top of the key. As the final seconds ticked off, four Thunder players stood and watched as their superstar worked.

Research shows almost any other kind of play gets better results. Why does it keep happening, then? The stars want the ball, the fans want the star to have the ball and if some bit player ends up with the ball as the clock expires, people end up saying really mean things about the coach.

It's like a bad piece of legislation. This system works for the key people involved, even if it's far from the best way.

The reason Hero Ball is so hard for the offense is because it's so easy for the defense. Dallas coach Rick Carlisle didn't just get to substitute elite perimeter defender Shawn Marion into the game to guard Durant. He also confidently sent the very long Ian Mahinmi over to help. What if Mahinmi's man, Ibaka, who was left alone in the paint? Carlisle had little to worry about. The Thunder have a history of using isolation plays in moments like this, and they seldom pass. (As John Hollinger points out, Durant's first crunch-time assist of the season came a minute earlier.) Knowing where the shot would come from, the Mavericks didn't have to worry much about Mahinmi's man.

As a result, both Marion and Mahinmi almost blocked Durant's shot.



This one happened to go in, which was part skill and part luck.

On Sunday night, the Grizzlies would find themselves in almost exactly the same spot, made a similar play with a similar player and demonstrated what usually happens. Again the long, athletic star had the ball at the top of the key, dribbling out the final nine seconds -- where it was once Kevin Durant, now it was Rudy Gay. Again, as the star made his move, help came from his left, about 15 feet from the hoop. Again, he managed to use all his length and guile to squeeze a shot off over the outstretched arms of the defense.

This time, like the vast majority of heavily contested shots, Rudy Gay missed and the Grizzlies lost.



Ahh, you might say, what that proves is that Gay is no Durant. It's not really true, though. This season, Gay's true shooting percentage was better than Durant's by almost every definition of crunch time, even though Synergy research shows that Durant is among the best isolation players in the league, especially late in games.

But the research suggests both players are most likely to miss, and that both teams have better options.

IT CAN BE EASIER

The Grizzlies' Zach Randolph is recovering from injury. Think about what that might do to a player. Things like speed and jumping ability could be suspect, right?

This appeared to be precisely the case throughout Sunday's Game 1 between the Clippers and Grizzlies. In terms of physical abilities, Randolph certainly appeared to be the Grizzlies' weak link.

Down a point in the final minute, Chris Paul made a play that was the opposite of Hero Ball. He a) passed the ball, which is generally not seen as clutch, and b) passed the ball to a role player. Reggie Evans isn't just not a superstar. He was, statistically, one of the worst players in the NBA this season.

Why would Paul do that? Because by dishing it to the Evans, who was on the move to the hoop, Paul put pressure on the underperforming Randolph to make the play at the rim. Randolph never had a chance, and Evans finished easily.

Giving the ball to a star with the mission to hang onto it may keep coaches from getting fired. But it should be the opposite. Attacking the defense at its weak point is the winning play. Durant made a big bucket that he would normally miss. Evans and Ibaka made buckets against unprepared defense -- layups they'd almost never miss. Who knows how many more crunch time plays could end with easy plays like that? Few teams even attempt it.

The 2012 TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown is alive.

This year's contestants:

• Newcomer Arturo Galletti, who hails from Puerto Rico and works with a model from the Wages of Wins principles developed by former champion David Berri.
• John Hollinger, the ESPN.com writer and analyst who has come close but has yet to win the Smackdown.
• Stephen Ilardi, a professor at Kansas and consultant to the Phoenix Suns who narrowly missed first last year.
• Former champion Jeffrey Ma. The movie "21" and book "Bringing Down the House" are about his real life. He wrote "The House Advantage" and is now CEO of tenXer.
• Benjamin Morris, who joined the contest for the first time last year and won it. He has a blog at Skeptical Sports.
• Matthew Stahlhut, a sports gambling consultant who played along from home two years ago and "won," then played for real last year and came in third.
• My mom.
• And this year, a new contestant, a "wisdom of crowds" entrant, representing the collected wisdom of dozens of ESPN.com writers and TrueHoop Network bloggers. A similar model has been more accurate than the Las Vegas line two years running (during the regular season).

The quant analysts are in unanimous agreement that the Bulls, Heat, Pacers, Celtics, Spurs and Thunder will win their first-round series.

The two series featuring teams from Los Angeles, however, are all over the place. In the case of the Nuggets and Lakers, picks are as varied as Lakers in five and Nuggets in six. In the case of the Grizzlies and Clippers, everyone expects the series to last at least six games, and nobody has a lot of conviction about who will win.

There's also something very interesting happening with the Spurs. They're seen as one of many contenders in the eyes of most experts. But in this crowd, they're very special indeed, with one model showing them as a bigger favorite than "the field," which is almost unheard of at this stage.