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On his blog at Skeptical Sports, current TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown champion Benjamin Morris talks about a surprisingly simple method of picking NBA champions. It has a heck of a lot to do with the fact that teams that have won titles are more likely to win more, for whatever reason:

Perhaps this will change going forward, but, historically, there are no two ways to cut it: No matter how awesomely designed and complicated your models/simulations are, if you don’t account for championship experience, you will lose to even the most rudimentary model that does.

So case in point, I came up with this 2-step method for picking NBA Champions:

• If there are any teams within 5 games of the best record that have won a title within the past 5 years, pick the most recent.
• Otherwise, pick the team with the best record.

Following this method, you would correctly pick the eventual NBA Champion in 64.3% of years since the league moved to a 16-team playoff in 1984 (with due respect to the slayer, I call this my “5-by-53 model ).

Of course, thinking back, it seems like picking the winner is sometimes easy, as the league often has an obvious “best team” that is extremely unlikely to ever lose a 7 game series. So perhaps the better question to ask is: How much do you gain by including the championship test in step 1?

The answer is: a lot. Over the same period, the team with the league’s best record has won only 10/28 championships, or ~35%. So the 5-by-5 model almost doubles your hit rate.

And in case you’re wondering, using Margin of Victory, SRS, or any other advanced stat instead of W-L record doesn’t help: other methods vary from doing slightly worse to slightly better.

The last five champions are the Mavericks, Lakers, Lakers, Celtics and Spurs. Of them, only San Antonio was within five games of the best record.

Therefore, this model, which has predicted so much better than fancier seeming metrics, predicts the Spurs will take it all this year. Very interesting.

The question is, why? Why are teams that have won before so much better at winning again? I'll kick off the brainstorming:

• Maybe most teams fall short of their potential because of team dynamics of selfishness -- and maybe champions are the teams that know how to move past that.
• Maybe there are only a few really special coaches, and these teams have them.
• Maybe there are only a few really special teams, and these teams are them.
• Maybe there are special strategies to the playoffs that only some teams know. Not even sure what I'm talking about here -- Sleep schedules? Nutrition? Injury prevention?
• Maybe champions get better treatment from referees.
• Maybe it's about teams with one of a short list of superstars.

Anyway, it's certainly fascinating.

UPDATE: John Hollinger with a good point that fits this and other data: Maybe title-winning team don't value the regular season much.

• John Hollinger (Insider) says the Bulls can get back into their series against the Sixers -- playing without Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah in the regular season they were much better than this. "The Bulls have to start Taj Gibson -- who is one of their best players anyway -- and play long stretches with Luol Deng at the 4. This frees up minutes for Korver, spaces the floor for everybody, and may even allow some small looks with C.J. Watson and sharpshooter John Lucas on the court together."
• Not too long ago, the Pacers were entirely unsure about Frank Vogel as a head coach. Tonight, they might be headed to the second round.
• Things are just getting brutal for Kings fans. Rob McAllister on Cowbell Kingdom: "With this public relations campaign already heading toward its own death bed, the Kings owners are going to need a tougher strategy to be granted relocation. Insert the lawyers. The family has someone with forty years of experience in anti-trust suits waiting to strike. Attorney Barry McNeil is no slouch and may be a formidable foe to Commissioner Stern and the league’s legal team. The Maloofs’ lawyers have sought email and phone conversations between the NBA and Sacramento all in an effort to build a case against the league if the owners attempt to block the move to Anaheim. There is no doubt this will get much uglier before it gets prettier."
• An overseas report of Danilo Gallinari saying, essentially, that everyone knows the Lakers get all the calls.
• You know how Metta World Peace elbowed James Harden? Could happen to anyone at work.
• Steve Kerr makes the case for raising the age limit to 20. And it all makes sense ... in theory. But in practice ... it simply doesn't work like that. Lawyer Michael McCann explains this best.
• 19-year-old 6-7 athletic French shooting guard, anyone?
• Charles Barkley says LeBron James is the best player in the world, has been closing games well for a long time, and was probably just tired at the end of the Finals last year. Also, he says Michael Jordan has texted him, angry that Barkley has said Jordan has not been a good owner.
• Of all those teams trailing 3-1, Memphis might have the best shot at getting to Game 6. Neil Paine's analysis (Insider) shows they have two edges that matter in regression models: Homecourt in Game 5, and an opponent that didn't play great defense in the regular season.
• Jan Vesely's famous kiss gets kind of meta.
• Wow. If you live in New York and want to see the Knicks play the Heat, the prices are similar whether you buy tickets to Madison Square Garden or similar seats in Miami -- along with airfare and hotel.
• Is a Brandon Roy comeback still theoretically possible? Also, a year into the Blazers' GM search comes news that one interview has been completed. It's a little more complicated than that, but the upshot is that they have some candidates they like and expect to make a hire before the draft.
• Uni Watch readers come up with new looks for New Orleans.

We had the feeling there would be plenty of Flop of the Night fodder in the playoffs. But we never dreamed that anyone would approach Chris Paul's performance in Game 4.

In what must surely be the most impressive and ambitious flop in the history of the NBA, during a dead ball situation, Chris Paul flopped on a ref!

After Memphis called timeout, official Mike Callahan moved to get between Paul and Memphis forward Dante Cunningham, who were having a little passive-aggressive dispute over who got to hand the ball to the official. Paul knocked the ball out of Cunningham’s hands, and as Paul went to secure it, Cunningham flicked the ball away with his foot.

Callahan swiftly went to separate the two, creating contact that somehow triggered Chris Paul’s flop instinct.

Paul’s head whip was enough to convince Callahan that the situation was escalating, and he called a double technical foul on Paul and Cunningham.

So to recap: It’s a dead ball. Chris Paul flops when a referee touches him. The referee calls a double technical foul.

Paul’s control over a basketball game is truly complete.

Meanwhile, on Twitter, the Clippers were cementing a floppy reputation.

LOS ANGELES -- The Memphis Grizzlies might have been better off using the snarl of Tony Allen, the pied piper of their grit-and-grind ethos, as their official logo in last season’s postseason.

Fans essentially did, bringing cardboard cutouts of a grimacing Allen, along with ones of an equally surly-looking Zach Randolph, to games last May as the team rose from an 8-seed appetizer to a cranky unstoppable force. One thing’s for sure: A morose blue bear, even one with laser eyeballs, couldn’t embody the smoke-coming-from-their-noses toughness that fueled the Grizzlies’ surprising playoff run.

The window for the change has passed, however. With his war-battered elbows resting on his knees, shoulders slumped and eyes fixated on the floor after the Clippers bruised and battered the Grizzlies in yet another close win to take a 3-1 series lead, Allen looked more like a wounded animal waiting for the inevitable.

“I thought that that was our style of play,” Allen said, still trying to come to the grips with the 101-97 overtime defeat Monday night at Staples Center that etched the number of postseason hours they have left on their arms, like in that recent Justin Timberlake flick (a must-see, according to my parking lot attendee). “I thought we [were supposed to] pretty much grit and grind, and be the grinders. Body bang and do all the stuff down low. Be tough-minded. But those guys are more the aggressors.”

It wasn’t until Game 4 of last year’s first-round series against the Spurs that the style that now defines them truly changed the perception of these Grizzlies.

They became a tough out after a Game 1 victory in San Antonio. Then a Game 3 win announced their presence as a possible spoiler. But it wasn’t until that third victory, in Game 4, that the Griz became the scary force to be reckoned with we’ve come to know them as lately, a team with the size, strength and clear, repeatable game plan of how to win. In that game, the Spurs actually -- and very clearly -- laid down, as coach Greg Popovich sat his Big Three with six minutes to go and kept them there for the remainder.

At the time, they were conceding only a victory. But now, a revisionist historian might pontificate, it seems just as much a concession of Memphis' new status in this league: the team no one wants to see across from them, particularly in a seven-game series.

This Game 4 may once again color our view of them, but the shade certainly isn’t as flattering.

After looking like anything was possible even heading into this year’s playoffs -- especially after stealing the higher seed from the Clips in the regular season’s final days -- the Grizzlies basically threw up their hands once they witnessed Chris Paul conjure up yet another late-game masterpiece to swing the series.

“Guy made three straight jumpers, got to the basket, got fouled,” Memphis coach Lionel Hollins said. “C’mon. Chris Paul won the game for them down the stretch.”

And the solution going forward?

“Try to shut down Chris Paul a little bit. Simple,” Hollins said. “He’s the problem, we got to solve the problem.”

So far, they’ve had little luck -- Paul’s four games this series: 14 points and 11 assists, 29 and six, 24 and 11, 27 and seven plus nine rebounds -- and regardless of how close they’ve been (and boy, have they been close), the Griz now have precious little time to try to move around the pieces and makes things resemble what they had last year, and more importantly, who they were.

Reborn last postseason after years of boneheadedness derailed a productive career, Randolph has tried to muscle up with Blake Griffin, returning every elbow and nudge, always having sometime to say every time Griffin got all cranky about a missed call. Randolph was clearly trying to impose his will on the Clippers, as he did so often against the Spurs last postseason and, to a lesser extent, the Thunder. But the only one on tilt was Z-Bo, who mustered a respectable yet quiet 12 points and nine rebounds but struggled with foul trouble and seemed destined for an early night after a jawing session with (and belly bump to) Griffin under the four-minute mark in the second quarter resulted in a technical foul.

This was the Randolph we’ve grown to groan at, not the one with the subtle, jumping-not-required game we grew to love. (And if we needed any reminder, the crowd’s disdain for the former Clipper, the one shipped out of town to clear a path for the Griffin era, surely hammered it home.)

But Randolph, who missed 38 games this season, isn’t the only one not looking like himself. Marc Gasol, the Griz’s only All-Star this season, looked more like the “soft era” Pau Gasol, especially when Chris Paul looped Marc's ankles into pretzels late in the game, as Paul did to Marc's big bro in last year’s first round; Gasol the younger took only four shots and made only one as the Clippers denied him from becoming either the stirrer (two assists) or the supper (eight points).

Allen, too, has seemed defanged at times this series. Despite shutting down Paul on the final play of regulation Monday night to force the extra frame and pestering ball handlers throughout the game, he logged only 18 minutes in Game 3 and at times looked bothered by a sore left knee (despite Hollins’ insistence otherwise). And on the other end of the spectrum, Mike Conley churned out a very LeBron-esque all-around performance, with 25 points, eight assists, seven rebounds and some solid defense on Paul. Bizarre times, indeed.

Everyone still has the same look and edge; Allen looks even grizzlier these days, with the hairs of his unkempt goatee hanging over his top lip. The feel, though, is much different from last postseason.

“It’s a lot different; we ain’t winning games,” Randolph said.

But are they the same team?

“Yeah,” he said. “We still the same team.”

It’s getting pretty hard to believe him.

Allen disagreed slightly, too, pointing out the changes to the team’s second unit from last season. Instead of Darrell Arthur, they have Dante Cunningham. Rather than Shane Battier, there’s Quincy Pondexter, Allen noted.

The one he didn’t mention, the biggest one of all, comes at the wing, where Rudy Gay has taken back the starter’s role occupied last year by Sam Young.

Gay was supposed to add to the firepower for the budding contender. But at times, Gay’s midrange-gunning ways seem only to feed into claims that he’s a bit out of place on a roster built to hammer teams in the post. Amidst a roster full of scrappy, tough guys, the spry, quiet Gay seems out of place; even his wispy, finely manicured facial hair doesn’t fit.

He’s a star-in-the-making very much in the Kobe mold on a team that doesn’t need one. Until they do, of course.

Gay has taken most of the big shots in each of the Grizzlies’ three losses, including the potential game-winners in Games 1 and 3. This time, the sixth-year wing had more success, scoring 10 of his 19 points in the fourth quarter and tying the game at 85 with 35 seconds in regulation. But it wasn’t enough cover-up for that ugly 8-for-25 shooting line at night’s end. Gay took only one shot in the overtime period (a 26-footer as time expired) and managed to be both overaggressive (2-for-7 in the first quarter) and disinterested in the first three quarters -- the latter of which is a resurfacing of the rap he deservedly earned in college.

“I settled a lot. I settled a lot,” Gay said. “That’s something I have to watch the tape and figure out what I did wrong -- again.”

It’s back to the drawing board for the whole team. Perhaps the Grizzlies can ask the Clippers to give back the script the Griz apparently loaned L.A. before the series began.

The Clippers have even borrowed the Griz's mantra, as Kenyon Martin snuck in a "grit and grind" in a chat with our J.A. Adande.

More like "taken," really.

“In order to be a great team, you have to take advantage of the opportunities … capitalize when you have the moment,” Allen said. “You have to take your hat off and give them some credit, because they pretty much manhandled this series right now and they up 3-1.”

• Buck Harvey of the San Antonio Express-News: Coaches torture themselves over success, and Gregg Popovich has been lately. He’s been wondering out loud among his staff that, well, wouldn’t it be better to lose a game? “That’s why,” one of his assistants kidded him, “you are coach of the year.” Popovich wasn’t laughing. He’s felt the winning streak has become a burden, and he didn’t like the feel that a relaxed first round was giving his players. It’s the same reason he also dislikes 20-point leads in the first half. So what happened Monday, when the Spurs coughed and sputtered toward a sweep, gave him hope. Popovich can treat the latest win like a loss, and he will take the Spurs into the film room to see a few things. Or, as Stephen Jackson put it with a smile, “Pop’s got something to teach on.” The broader picture should include a few positives. The Spurs did what the best teams do, which is take out an opponent as quickly as possible to minimize injuries. The Spurs were healthy going into the playoffs, and they are still healthy. Ask Chicago, among others. This isn’t something to complain about.
• Gordon Monson of The Salt Lake Tribune: And so, it has ended for the Jazz. An ugly game that got away in the second half, and then, remarkably, was almost reeled back in. A playoff series that was dominated by a better team. A season that even in the disappointment of four straight losses to the Spurs, the final one an 87-81 defeat at home that simply refused to be coerced into a win, could and should be recorded as a success. Not a raging success, but a success nonetheless. "I wouldn’t consider it a success," Gordon Hayward said. "I consider it improvement. It’s not a success unless you win the whole thing." That was never in play. It was hard for the Jazz to see the positives in the throes of defeat, a defeat that went from a 21-point margin down to a 4-pointer near the end. But the sun that set on them Monday night will also rise Tuesday morning. And a whole lot of mornings in the future. Is that too charitable? Too optimistic? No.
• Vincent Bonsignore of the Los Angeles Daily News: Anyone with kids understands the ambiguity of growth spurts. See, when you're around your kids day after day after day, you don't quite realize how much they're actually spouting. They're literally growing right before your eyes, but it's occurring at such a gradual pace you don't even notice. But then a moment comes along when it hits you. Maybe they're standing alongside a friend they once stood eye-to-eye with but now tower over. Or maybe the jeans that once hung too long on them no longer cover their ankles. And you think to yourself, `Wow, when did that happen?' That kind of moment occurred Monday with the Clippers. Maybe we weren't paying close enough attention or perhaps we've been too close to them to truly notice. But their 101-97 overtime victory over the desperate Memphis Grizzlies in Game 4 of the first round of the Western Conference playoffs showed us just how far they've come over a short period of time, just how much they've sprouted over the last four months. The Clippers took a decisive 3-1 lead in the best-of-seven series and can close things out Wednesday in Memphis. Make no mistake, the Clippers have grown up. In mind, spirit and body.
• Mark Murphy of the Boston Herald: Perhaps the most remarkable part of Ray Allen’s return from a month of inactivity has been his consistency during the past two games against the Hawks. The Celtics guard, finally slotted in the sixth-man role coach Doc Rivers has envisioned for him at least since the All-Star break, has put up classic sixth-man numbers, including a 12.5 scoring average and 11-for-21 (.524) shooting. Only his 3-point shooting (2-for-7) has been a tad slower to take off, but there’s always time, especially now with the Celtics taking a 3-1 first-round series lead into Game 5 tonight in Atlanta. Though there’s always the threat of a day-after setback — a constant concern for someone who admits he’ll need surgery on the bone spurs in his right ankle this summer — Allen looked resolute Sunday night. “I feel surprisingly great,” he said. “I’m really managing my off days really well. And you have a tendency when you get back off of an injury (to) kind of let it slide a bit, (but) I haven’t been. And it’s important to me to rest up. I know once I get in the game, my body’s going to require a little bit more, so I’m trying to move and shoot around on days before games. When I get my shots up, I’m trying to move and mirror what I’m going to do in the game, so there’s no surprises.” It’s unlikely that there’s another player in the league with a more scientific approach to preparation than Allen. Few players work harder to refine their mechanics, and fewer still have such a consistently fluid stroke.
• Mark Bradley of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: It took barely a week, but the industrious Hawks have done it. They’ve thrown away a 1-0 series lead and an 11-point advantage in a Game 2 for which the best Celtic was suspended, and they’re back where they feel most accustomed — being given no chance to do anything except embarrass themselves further. Surely more folks would grant them a chance if they gave any indication they’d know what to do with one, but these are, for better and worse, the Hawks. In Boston they managed an improbable double, even by their crazy-quilt standards: They played a strong Game 3 without Josh Smith and Al Horford and a terrible Game 4 with both on the floor. ... Nobody knows why, though theories abound. They’re weak-willed. (I can see why people say it, but I also know that a weak-willed team wouldn’t have won Games 6 and 7 against Milwaukee in 2010.) They lack a big man. (And who’s that playing center for Boston? Bill Russell?) They don’t have a superstar. OK, that’s legit. ... Despite the Hawks’ best efforts, this series isn’t yet lost. But the Hawks cannot wait for Joe Johnson to win it for them. As good as he can be, he’s not that good.
• Tom Moore of phillyBurbs.com: The clinching game of a playoff series tends to be difficult. Doug Collins called it “the hardest game to win in sports.” The opposing team’s desperation for its season to continue is perhaps the most significant factor. With a 3-1 lead in their best-of-seven series against the Chicago Bulls, the 76ers can advance with a victory in Game 5 on Tuesday night (9:30 on Comcast SportsNet/NBA TV) at the United Center. Having won three in a row and with Chicago missing all-star guard Derrick Rose (torn ACL) and center Joakim Noah (sprained ankle), the Sixers seem to have a lot going for them. But the Sixers lack playoff close-out experience. Only one Sixer in Collins’ regular rotation (Elton Brand, 2006 with the Clippers) has been on a team that won a postseason series. Those nine players have appeared in a total of just 16 series, meaning 15 ended with the other team closing them out. Eighth-year pro Andre Iguodala has lost in the first round four times.
• Neil Hayes of the Chicago Sun-Times: The Bulls hoped to benefit from Rip Hamilton’s playoff wisdom, but they didn’t expect his experience of once being down 3-1 in a first-round series to come in so handy. If the Bulls can’t match what Hamilton’s Pistons did in 2003, when they won three in a row to eliminate the Magic, their season will be over. “It’s been a crazy year, from beginning to right now, so we know that,” Hamilton said. “We know that nothing’s easy. It hasn’t been easy for the whole season, with injuries and guys being out, so we know it’s going to be tough. We’ve just got to come out and be ready to play.” If the Bulls are to extend this series, they’ll need to play with more energy in Game 5 Tuesday at the United Center than they did in the first quarter of Game 4. They must offset what has become a huge 76ers advantage at the free-throw line. The 76ers have shot 30 or more free throws in three of the four games. They only did that four times all season. They’ll need to play better down the stretch. “The thing they’ve done that has hurt us is they’ve gotten timely offensive rebounds late,” coach Tom Thibodeau said.
• Benjamin Hochman of The Denver Post: Entering tonight's Game 5 at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, with the Lakers ready to close things out on their home court, it's obvious what the Nuggets need to do to keep this best-of-seven series going: Be tougher and rebound better. In their only victory in this series, the Nuggets won Game 3 by controlling the offensive boards. But the Lakers had 10 more rebounds Sunday, including 19 on the offensive glass. That's a killer for the Nuggets because they thrive off points in transition. With the Lakers able to slow the game by controlling the boards, their brawny bigs stole opportunities for Denver to keep the tempo at a fast pace. The Lakers outscored the Nuggets in second-chance points 28-18. ... Tonight brings Game 5, with the Nuggets staring at another first-round exit. They have never come back from a 3-1 deficit to win a series. Denver will have to play Laker-tough to get back in the game.
• Kevin Ding of The Orange County Register: The Lakers will have to keep pushing for more in the next round in the face of ever-snarling Kendrick Perkins, whom Bryant calls the best post defender in the game, and Serge Ibaka, who blocked 100-plus more shots than any other player this season. They'll have to go into that raucous Oklahoma City gym and seize at least one game from people who believe it is now their time. They'll have to take it from the amazing Kevin Durant, the onrushing Russell Westbrook, the underrated James Harden and the clutch Derek Fisher. You don't accomplish any of that while sitting down. Bynum trained in a boxing ring over the summer, so he has a heightened respect for taking a punch and still standing your ground. He is also a budding soccer aficionado (although Bryant alleges that Bynum learned everything he knows from playing the FIFA soccer video game), so you know Bynum doesn't really mean to denigrate the world's game. What he means to do is mock Gallinari ... and anyone who expects to become the best by lying down on the job instead of doing the hard work. What Bynum needs to know is that no one will remember, ultimately, that the Lakers did not stoop to Gallinari's level. It's only the first round. This is about who will be the last men standing.
• Bob Kravitz of The Indianapolis Star: I play this little game with Indiana Pacers coach Frank Vogel, even if he's not completely aware he's a participant. About every 10 games or so, I ask him if he wants Paul George to be more assertive offensively. And every time I ask, he looks at me like I'm half nuts (I get this look a lot from people) and talks about all the other good things George does -- like defend, rebound, pass the basketball. There are two reasons Vogel does this: One, he really does like all the other things the second-year player brings to the floor, and he should. Two, Vogel rarely -- OK, never -- criticizes or even mildly chides his players in a public forum. That's not to say he doesn't hold them accountable privately, but in stark contrast to Orlando's Stan Van Gundy, who will happily call out players in the media, Vogel would rather stroke his players than slap them around publicly. Larry Bird, though, doesn't have that problem. Ask a question, you get brutal honesty. "He's got to pick it up," the Pacers president said after Monday's practice. "This isn't the time to feel sorry for yourself. Sometimes players lose their shot, and they lose all their confidence. As he gets along in his career, we think he can be a pretty good scorer. But just because you're not making shots doesn't mean you can't do the other things. Disappointed? No. I mean, he's so young (just turned 22). Last year he was in five playoff games, and it's just the first round this year. These young guys, they're going to learn, each playoff game gets harder as you go along. Not each series, each game. These guys don't understand that yet."
• Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel: Stan Van Gundy knows that speculation is rampant that this playoff series against the Indiana Pacers will mark the end of his tenure as the Orlando Magic's coach. But Van Gundy maintains the rumors don't bother him. "I've been around coaching my entire life — literally, my entire life," Van Gundy said after the Magic finished practice Monday at Amway Center. "I really think, for all coaches, I don't think that's disconcerting at all. You sort of know when you go into it — and, for me, I knew long before I went into it because I'd been around it — that's all part of it. You don't worry about that. "I think the only thing you worry about is winning games, and you're not happy being down 3-1. I'm upset about losing Game 4 and the whole thing. But the rest of it, I don't have any control over that. I do have some control over getting our team ready to play." The Magic will face the Pacers in Game 5 at 7 tonight at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Van Gundy owns a 259-135 regular-season record and a 31-27 postseason record as the Magic's coach

SALT LAKE CITY -- Against a backdrop of unrelenting execution and impressive team play in a first-round playoff sweep by the San Antonio Spurs, the Utah Jazz reprised their entire season in 48 minutes.

A nervous start evened out into an exciting second act followed by an intermission featuring a blindfolded contortionist archer who shot arrows at a target using her feet. The third act was a familiar comedy of errors, but somehow the Jazz made an improbable run to pull within three points with 2:57 left in the third quarter -- and then didn’t score again for the rest of the period in San Antonio's 87-81 Game 4 win.

Adding the drama of night, the Jazz dance team was absent for most of the game as punishment for performing to an unedited music track during Game 3. The empty floor during timeouts was a bizarre contrast to the usual overstimulation of the NBA arena experience.

Spurs star Manu Ginobili filled the empty stage, playing his classic role of the Argentine Asesino. A dramatic foul drawn here and back-to-back 3-pointers there, and that three-point lead turned to 10 going into the fourth quarter, sending many in the late-arriving crowd heading for the exits.

The fourth act was certainly the only part of the series that caught the attention of the Spurs. Down 21 points, it looked like the Jazz were ready to roll over and quit. Said Spurs coach Gregg Popovich: “The Utah Jazz showed you the kind of class and the kind of organization they are. Down 3-0 and I think we were up 17 or 18 and some people probably thought it was over, we put in a couple of subs and they just ran it right to us and stuck it to us, because they don’t quit. They are just a class team and class organization. [Jazz coach Ty Corbin] has done a great job of keeping that going. It is just who they are and they showed it tonight. I just have to congratulate them on that.”

There was no need for the Jazz to return the compliment -- they spent the week famously congratulating the Spurs for being a better team. Afterward, Jazz guard Devin Harris was forced to offer more of the same: “The Spurs are a very good team. We’re a very young team. But any experience in the playoffs for our young guys is a good thing. You can’t really replace playoff experience. It’s a great thing to go through. [We] definitely learned some things from a team like the Spurs: the way they play together, the way they stay poised in the fourth quarter, how they really execute. They’ve won four championships for a reason.”

The stat lines told the story of the season. Jazz center Al Jefferson was supremely Jeffersonian with 26 points and only one free throw attempted. It missed. Paul Millsap worked hard for his 19 rebounds but scored only 10 points. A long 3-pointer that would have sent the arena into pandemonium bounced out and a chance to pull within one possession in the final seconds turned into a lost ball and a Ginobili layup to ice the game.

Harris observed the uneven performance by the Jazz this season: “I thought we started out really well. Then we had a little letdown toward the middle of the season, but we made up our minds that we wanted to make the playoffs. That’s where that big push came from late in the season. We had a lot of key guys hurt during that run. Our young guys really stepped up to the plate and played with experience and poise. We have a lot to look forward to with those young guys and this team.”

For Jazz fans, the season ends with a good look at young Derrick Favors (16 points, 10 rebounds, 37 minutes), the young big man who should be the face of the franchise going forward. Fellow second-year rising star Gordon Hayward (0 points, 0-for-7 shooting in 25 minutes) struggled in his last two games, going 1-for-18 from the end of Game 2 to the end of the series.

Popovich himself was impressed with his point guard, Tony Parker: “This is his best year since he’s been here; he’s had some good ones. He was the MVP of the [NBA] Finals one year and he’s playing better now then he did then, because he’s playing an all-around game. He’s guarding, he’s involving other people, he still scores, and he’s been a good leader. He’s been very demanding of his teammates and very focused and serious since he came back this year from the Olympic qualifications this past summer.”

What was predicted by many to be a swan song of a season instead looks like it will have a marquee-worthy team that will playing on a big stage for the next couple months.

With more than their share of 30-somethings, the San Antonio Spurs may not seem like a logical choice to have the best transition offense in the league. But after running the NBA's most effective transition attack in the regular season, the Spurs took their full-court game to another level in their sweep of the Utah Jazz in the first round of the NBA playoffs.

San Antonio scored 19.8 points per game in transition against Utah, an increase of nearly four points per game from its regular-season average. And the Spurs pinpoint shooting when on the break (62.2 percent from the floor) allowed them to average 1.30 points per play in transition, an increase from their NBA-best 1.24 transition points per play in the regular season.

But it isn't solely fast-break offense that has San Antonio in the Western Conference semifinals for the 12th time in 15 seasons. The Spurs dominated the Jazz from the 3-point line as well, making 33 3-pointers to the Jazz's nine during the series. While San Antonio made 41 percent of its 3-pointers in the first round, the Jazz shot just 20 percent from 3-point territory, including an 0-13 performance Monday that was the Jazz's worst from beyond the arc in the regular season or postseason since Game 4 of the 2008 Western Conference first round vs. the Houston Rockets.

When a team performs as well as the Spurs did both on the run and from 3-point territory, it's not surprising that they often win by a substantial margin. San Antonio outscored Utah by 64 points in the first round, its second-best point differential ever in a playoff series, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. The Spurs outscored the Denver Nuggets by 67 (664-597) in the 1983 Western Conference semifinals.

Elias also tells us that it's the Spurs' sixth postseason sweep since Tim Duncan's rookie season in 1997-98. Only the Los Angeles Lakers, with seven, have more in that span. For the Jazz, it's the second straight playoff series they've failed to win a game after being swept by the Lakers in the 2010 Western Conference semifinals. Utah's eight-game postseason losing streak is the longest in franchise history.

• Pop quiz: Which NBA team had the best offense in the NBA this season, by a healthy margin? Answer. John Hollinger is a little salty (Insider) about how the Spurs have been ignored: "Don't let San Antonio's 27-3 mark in its past 30 games with the Big Three and near-certain home-court advantage for every remaining series distract you. And by all means, feel free to ignore the fact the Spurs are 19-1 on the road in their past 20 games the Big Three have played. After three methodical beatdowns of Utah, including one of the sweetest last-second plays you'll ever see to get a Matt Bonner 3 at the end of the first half of Game 3, the scary thought is that San Antonio's defense is catching up to its offense. The thought entering this series was that Utah's bruising post game was the perfect attack to face San Antonio, especially after Zach Randolph beat them up in the playoffs last spring. Instead, a spry-looking Tim Duncan has completely bottled up Al Jefferson, Boris Diaw has provided a much-needed post defender at the 4 and the Spurs are fourth in playoff defensive efficiency -- a mark that would be even better were it not for the copious amounts of garbage time in the first three games. So keep ignoring them. They'll just be quietly chuckling while they await their next overmatched opponent, standing 13 wins from one of the greatest closing kicks in league annals."
• People are all upset that Al Jefferson said the Spurs are fantastic, and better than the Jazz. I don't think people should ever get in trouble for telling the truth.
• It was suggested that Utah's "big" lineup, which features Derrick Favors, Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson, might give San Antonio trouble. But the Silver and Black Machine has sliced and diced every combination of Jazz players they've faced. Just like in the regular season, they've spread the floor, attacked the weakest link in the defense and drilled open 3s.
• Let's give some credit to Scott Brooks for this: he knows how to let James Harden do his thing.
• Why are ACLs so vulnerable? Turns out even NBA superstars can't overcome genetics.
• NBA tickets for one dollar. From a Bobcats press release: "Under the promotion, season tickets could be priced as low as $43 for an upper-level seat, with the cost per game equaling the draft pick the team receives in the lottery. For example, if the Bobcats get the No. 1 pick, the price would be $1 per game, or $43 for the season (41 regular season games and two preseason games). Even if the Bobcats receive the No. 4 pick, the $4-per-game cost would amount to $172 for the season. This is a price point that has not been available in the past, inviting customers who may not have been able to become Bobcats season ticket holders previously." NOTE: This promotion is over ... those super cheap seats are sold out.
• Don't look now, but Jrue Holiday is starting to cash in on his star potential.
• Nick Flynt with a two part breakdown of the Clippers defense that rarely broke down in Game 3.
• Among the many things the NBA should take pride in: Very few games interrupted by chickens. Although there was that Hawk incident.
• Carmelo Anthony hung most of his 41 points on the Heat when matched up against Shane Battier. Brian Windhorst wonders why Spoelstra didn't put LeBron James on Anthony down the stretch, and I'm wondering whether it's time to officially retire Battier's "Stopper" label.
• Not enough rebounds. Too many turnovers and long jump shots. The problems facing the Bulls are the same ones they usually pose to their opponents.
• The Celtics are banged up, especially on the wings.
• Nets Are Scorching blogger Devin Kharpertian got a familiar feeling watching James Harden slice through the Mavericks defense.
• It's almost certain that they won't come back and win the series, but that shouldn't stop New York fans from feeling good about the Knicks' thrilling Game 4 win.
• A lot of what happens on the court is a competition for some kind of swagger. All that working out, and running around, though ... and just eating some yogurt might have done the same thing.
• Be careful using something you see in one playoff game as insight into what will happen in the next playoff game. They're all different.
• Reggie Evans knows how to stop Marreese Speights from setting a good pick.
• A frame-by-frame look at Miami's airtight defense.
• The Pacers have had some odd lapses against the Magic. Jared Wade has some critical feedback, "Stan Van Gundy has been drawing up excellent out of bounds plays all series. This was one of them. But it really only worked because it was a quick-hitter to be executed against a defense that forgot the basic fundamentals of guarding a player you learn in second grade. Fortunately for Van Gundy, Paul George complied."

Raptors coach Dwane Casey says of Kobe Bryant: "In the flow of the game, he's a willing passer. But in crunch time, he is looking to get his. He's not looking to pass, and I tell my team that."

Watch Ty Lawson in the clip above, on the play that ends with a Steve Blake 3-pointer. It starts at about the 55-second mark. Bryant makes Lawson look entirely foolish for having left Blake so open in the reckless pursuit of Bryant.

But Lawson is playing from the playbook lots of teams use against the Lakers, and it often works.

Check out this photograph or this video.

The recipe was pretty simple and abnormally effective: Just send all kinds of defense at Kobe Bryant.

The remedy for Bryant, however, was always simple too. Pass. Just pass the ball to the open man. It hasn't happened much.

But it worked like crazy for the Lakers in Sunday's Game 4 which put the Lakers in the driver's seat against the Nuggets -- and not just on that play. A great crunch-time performance turned what could have been a 2-2 series into a deep 3-1 hole for the Nuggets, and it points to how the Lakers could be a bigger threat than they would seem to be.

Statistics show all kinds of ways that in crunch time the Lakers have generally underperformed. Over the past decade, they have won plenty of close games, titles and a reputation in crunch time.

In 2011-12, the Lakers have been near the top of team performance in crunch time, by most analyses. But they bounce around from season to season. Over the decade, the Lakers have had the NBA's best offense all game long, but only the 12th-best effective field goal percentage in the last three minutes in which they trail by three points or fewer or are tied. Over the same sample, the Lakers' total performance at both ends -- by the simple measure of who has outscored opponents -- has ranked 10th.

Middling crunch-time performance isn't a crisis, but you'd expect better from the team that has been essentially the best in the NBA generally over the period.

And Synergy Sports technology play-type analysis suggests one problem area was a heavy reliance on an inefficient play -- isolating Kobe Bryant. It's the Lakers' go-to late-game play, and it is just about their worst play, because it forces the Lakers to attack where the defense is strongest. Amazing as Bryant is, that's a tall order.

If Bryant is going to continue to hit the open man, however, like in the video above, opposing coaches will have plenty to worry about.

One of the most likely solutions: Opponents will stop sending such big crowds at Bryant. Perhaps he'll have some room to create high-percentage shots. Paradoxically, the passing he did in Game 4 might be the very thing to turn him into the crunch-time killer he has long been said to be.

LOS ANGELES -- There was a moment toward the end of the first quarter in Game 2 between the Grizzlies and the Clippers when Memphis walked the ball upcourt after getting beat in transition. As Mike Conley tried to deliver the ball to Rudy Gay on the wing, Zach Randolph barreled into Blake Griffin just inside the arc.

The contact caught Griffin off guard, and he stumbled backward like a fighter who’d been hit. Just as Griffin regained his balance -- now below the foul line -- Randolph delivered another elbow to Griffin’s torso, knocking the Clippers’ brawny power forward further into the paint.

Back up at the top of the court, Bobby Simmons denied that intended pass to Gay. Conley was fortunate to recover the ball and, when he did, he saw Randolph primed in the paint. Easy entry pass to Randolph, who took a single power dribble and muscled the ball up off the glass with his left for an easy layup. After staggering early, Memphis trailed by only five points.

The Grizzlies ultimately won the game and much of their success was attributed to pushing the Clippers around at will.

A playoff series develops certain storylines, and a dominant one to emerge from the Grizzlies-Clippers matchup has been physicality -- who is manhandling whom beneath the glass, in the paint and any other place on the floor where there's contact between opponents, which seems to be any arbitrary point between the east bank of the Mississippi River and the coastline of the Pacific Ocean.

Designated brute Reggie Evans said the Clippers got “punked” in his team's Game 2 loss in Memphis. Back in Los Angeles prior to Game 3, the Clippers posted a quote from commentator Charles Barkley on the locker room wall:

Other than Kenyon Martin, [the Clippers] are not a physical team … If I was coaching the Grizzlies, I would say "We are not letting them dunk." They want to get the "play of the day." They don’t want to be rough and tumble.

When the Clippers eked out a win in Game 3 by dodging a bullet at the buzzer, they claimed victory in the physical sweepstakes. "Overall, I thought we did a good job of being the more aggressive team," Griffin said. "That was kind of the plan, to be the aggressive team from the jump. That’s [the Grizzlies’] whole M.O., being aggressive, their whole ‘Grit ‘n’ Grind’ thing."

On the Memphis side, Rudy Gay was despondent after the game. Gay is a genial guy, but about as milquetoast as they come when it comes to declarative statements about team and individual performance. Yet he could hardly contain his frustration at the podium following Game 3.

"We're supposed to have a physical team," Gay said. "They took that away from us today. They pushed us. They did all the things that we usually do to teams. ... They really imposed their will on us tonight."

Evans might have struck the most balanced note after the game, one that acknowledged fewer instances like the one Griffin suffered back in Memphis, but stopped short of wholesale praise.

"We did pretty good, but we can still improve," Evans said. "We still have a little more work. We don't want to get too comfortable, too relaxed and too happy with the results. Even though we won, found a way to get a win, we still have to go back to the drawing board and see what we did wrong."

Evans understands that victory in the manhandling event tends to be assigned retroactively.

If Gay's last-second shot fell through the net, would he have bristled the way he did about the Clippers' seizing the mantle of schoolyard bully? Would the Clippers have been peppered with questions about whether their inability to control the trenches would be their undoing in this series?

"Physicality" is an ambiguous term whose definition changes player to player. When Evans was asked about it, he cited the offensive rebounding numbers. To Paul after Game 2, physicality meant Memphis' willingness to tug, pull and push him wherever and whenever he tried to navigate in the half court. Randolph's moments come when he and Griffin are wrestling for position.

And for Gay, it's about luring the opposing defense into illegal contact by being aggressive with the ball. For the Clippers, physicality doesn’t come without a price. They might have done a better job of holding their ground in Game 3, but they also let Gay and Randolph combine for 23 free throw attempts. There's smart physical and silly physical, and the Clippers simply can't foul Memphis the way they did on Saturday afternoon. Setting aside Memphis’ Game 1 exploits from the perimeter, the Grizzlies aren’t going to win this series from the perimeter. But they have big men who can stroke it from the foul line, and Gay has the capacity to turn a mediocre shooting performance into a charity drive, as he did in Game 3.

The Clippers can take down the bulletin-board material for Game 4. They did an acceptable job on the glass and Paul was more elusive to the Grizzlies behind the pick-and-roll. But there's still work to be done. Cutting down on the aforementioned fouls. Inspiring Griffin to leverage his big frame and plant a stake on the left block. Staying active on the glass. Fighting over those high picks for Conley.

The physical battle is usually portrayed as a bout, but it's just as much a game of wits. The Clippers worked harder in Game 3 -- and good for them. To take a decisive edge in Game 4, they now have to work smarter.

HoopIdea wants to #StopTheFlop. To spotlight the biggest fakers, we present Flop of the Night. You can help us separate the pretenders from the defenders -- details below.
Forget Flop of the Night. For the Denver Nuggets, this is the Flop of the Year.

Assuming it was a flop at all -- because this one is tricky.

In the final minutes of a 3-point game, Laker big man Pau Gasol set a pick that on some plays would have been called a foul. He leaned a shoulder into the approaching Danilo Gallinari. The contact looked painful -- that Gallinari had a big reaction is no surprise.

However, if you've learned anything from Flop of the Night, it's that in the minds of a lot of players, there's a playbook for how to deal with this kind of contact in the NBA these days: You exaggerate to get the referee's attention. It often works.

(Gallinari is in the Floppers' Club, to be sure. Video shows him to be among those who'll throw back his head in dramatic fashion while driving, for instance. And as it happens, on the Lakers' very next possession, Gallinari took the court again, this time flying 15-feet backward after mild contact from Bryant's forearm -- while Steve Blake hit a corner 3.)

This was not one of the times it worked. Not only did referee David Jones not call anything, but Gallinari also missed one of his team's most important defensive possessions of the season. Playing 5-on-4, the Nuggets scrambled for a few seconds until Ramon Sessions drained an open corner 3, putting the Lakers up three.

All the while, Gallinari writhed on the floor. Could he have gotten up and played on? Hard to say. But what seems clear is that some of what was going on was sales.

Watch the replay, and it’s clear that Gallinari got rocked.

As he bounces off Gasol’s shoulder, he covers his face, causing Marv Albert to exclaim “Gallinari took a shot to the nose!”

But once he’s on the ground, his hands move to his throat.

In super slow-motion -- Gallinari's legs kick out dramatically as he goes to the ground, an embellishment that Steve Kerr, calling the game live, suggested may have cued the official to dismiss the contact.

"I think sometimes when you exaggerate the officials will kind of give you that motion like ‘I'm not buying it, you gotta get up,'" said Kerr.

"So even if he was bumped around the throat I think his demonstrative action may have cost him the call."

When you see an egregious flop that deserves proper recognition, send us a link to the video so we can consider it for Flop of the Night. Here's how to make your submission:

• Alert HoopIdea to super flops with the Twitter hashtag #FlopOfTheNight (follow us on Twitter here).
• Use the #FlopOfTheNight hashtag in Daily Dime Live.
• E-mail us at hoopidea@gmail.com

• Harvey Araton of The New York Times: Knicks fans will wait three days with bated breath. They will interpret Wade’s inability to exploit the defensive switch that left the vulnerable Stoudemire on him — “I lost control of the ball and had to take it out for 3,” Wade said — as a sign of something, anything, that might bring them back to the Garden on Friday night. Maybe the Heat will start to hear footsteps or have a player go down; that seems to be in the air this playoff season. Wade, for one, had his ankles in ice after Sunday’s game. Bottom line: don’t tell Knicks fans — that ever loyal band of wishful thinkers and Anthony worshipers — that no N.B.A. team has ever recovered from a 0-3 playoff deficit. Not after they finally left a playoff game without having to curse the fates while finding the rationalization to still care. “It was a great win for us and our fans to get over the hump,” Stoudemire said. “To finally get over the hump now and win a game today is great.” It was now or not until next year for the Knicks, several of whom won’t be back, and their fans, most of whom certainly will return just as they have season after deflating season. They all earned the win Sunday. But all things considered, the paying sufferers in the stands deserved it more.
• Greg Cote of The Miami Herald: The perception was that thanks largely to key injuries to opponents’ star players Miami might not face a real challenge until the anticipated NBA Finals against Oklahoma City. Heck, LeBron was even asked the other day if he thought Miami’s championship would be “tainted,” and require the mythical asterisk, because of all those opponents’ playoff injuries combined with the lockout-caused shortened season. “I don’t think that’s right to say,” James replied. Something else that isn’t right to say is that Miami will waltz through the postseason unchallenged because awe-struck opponents are curtsying and bowing out of the way. Or that Miami can expect to always get by on sheer star power even on nights when it misses 16 three-point shots and 11 free throws and its bench players might as well have stayed on the team bus. “There’s a lesson for us,” ventured Bosh. “We’re going to have to be more attentive and relax a little bit.” Here’s another lesson from this loss: This season might well end for Miami like that book James is reading — with three young men who made a promise fulfilling a dream — but if so it will be hard won, no disclaimers needed, no asterisk required.
• Marcus Hayes of the Philadelphia Daily News: The Bulls lost their heart when Derrick Rose ruined his knee in Game 1. The Bulls lost their soul when Joakim Noah turned his ankle in Game 3. Sunday, the 76ers stepped on their necks. As a franchise, the Sixers took a giant step forward. Their 89-82 win gave them a 3-1 first-round lead over the top seed in the Eastern Conference. As an emerging franchise, anything but a win would have created a different image; one having to do with the Sixers' throats, and their inability to breathe and swallow. As it stands, to borrow and to alter a phrase, this is not a choking situation. That was averted. "Absolutely accurate. Absolutely accurate," said veteran Elton Brand, who in his reconstructed career has turned into Dennis Rodman. "If we lost today, it would affect our mentality. Our organization. Our franchise. Our talent level. Just all we're doing here. We still have to fight to win this series. But this game, at home, to really take the driver's seat - we had to have this. For the growth of the young guys."
• K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune: The 89-82 deficit on the scoreboard hurt the Bulls badly enough. The 31-14 discrepancy in free-throw attempts felt like piling on. "Listen, we're not going to blame the referees for our loss," Carlos Boozer said. "It was our fault we let up 25 points in the fourth quarter. But the discrepancy was huge and I thought we were being pretty aggressive." Several critical plays down the stretch rankled the Bulls. Trailing 82-80, Boozer drove hard and appeared to draw contact from Elton Brand, who blocked his shot. "It was a great pocket pass by C.J. (Watson)," Boozer said. "I was trying to go to the hole strong. Obviously, I wanted a layup or dunk. I thought I had some contact. I thought I got fouled to be frank. The fouls they were calling on the other side, I thought that call could've been made. But they didn't call it. We just kept playing on." On the ensuing possession, veteran official Dick Bavetta called Watson for a bump on Jrue Holiday as the Bulls' bench exploded in anger. "It was a key sequence," coach Tom Thibodeau said. "It kind of went against us."
• Gary Washburn of The Boston Globe: Spending the first three games of this first-round series in a slow grind, the Celtics were anticipating a breakout performance Sunday in Game 4. They spent the regular season as a shoddy offensive team, unable to score consistently, but looking dominant when they did. If the Celtics ever blended their sparkling defense with an offense that executed and made shots, they would emerge as a legitimate Eastern Conference contender. They were such a team in a 101-79 demolition of the Hawks at TD Garden, looking as if they finally had peaked for the postseason. As the East playoffs take shape, with the eighth-seeded 76ers one win from eliminating the Derrick Rose-less Bulls, the Celtics appear primed for another long playoff run if they can knock off the Hawks one more time.
• Michael Cunningham of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: I could sense the anguish among tweeps over this one. Just when they thought they could at least expect the Hawks to compete, they do this. So much for management’s boasts about being in the same league as the Celtics and the Lakers. Now comes the mockery from Charles Barkley and every other critic who said the Hawks would eventually go belly up. The Hawks never really surrendered like this all season. So why did it happen now, when they were healthier and the stakes were so high? ... On a day when Mike Woodson finally managed to end his streak of playoff embarrassments, Larry Drew delivered one of his own. His rotations were out of whack again. Maybe it wouldn’t have mattered if he’d made all the right moves considering his team wasn’t ready to play, but we didn’t get to find out.
• Elliott Teaford of the Los Angeles Daily News: Andrew Bynum showed up ready to rumble. So did Pau Gasol. Kobe Bryant didn't need to put the Lakers on his shoulders. The Lakers absorbed all the Denver Nuggets could deliver and still walked away with hugs and high-fives after a gritty 92-88 victory in Game 4 of their Western Conference quarterfinal series Sunday night at Pepsi Center. There would be no repeat of their Game 3 meltdown. The Lakers can eliminate the Nuggets from the best-of-7 series with a victory in Game 5 on Tuesday night at Staples Center. A win also would set up a much-anticipated conference semifinal matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Ramon Sessions' 3-pointer from the right corner and Steve Blake's 3 from the left one gave the Lakers the breathing room they needed in the final minute to seal the deal and take a commanding 3-1 lead over Denver in the series. Sessions broke an 86-all tie with a 3 with 48.1 seconds remaining, after Gasol freed him with a hard pick on the Nuggets' Danilo Gallinari and then made an alert pass. Gallinari didn't do his team any favors by falling to the court and lying there. "He's a big guy," Bryant said of Gallinari. "He can't flop on the screen-and-roll."
• Bemjamin Hochman of The Denver Post: Game 5 is Tuesday night at Staples Center, with Denver needing to win to bring the series back home on Thursday. "I think everybody knows why we lost the game - we didn't rebound and we didn't make them miss enough shots," Nuggets coach George Karl said. "They asserted their size." L.A. won the rebounding battle 48-38. It's a powerful challenge," Karl said of winning the next three games. "I don't think it's an impossible challenge." It was a devastating loss for the Nuggets, who led at the half and were in the game to the end but could not get a bucket when they needed it most late. And, it was a heartbreaker for the Pepsi Center crowd, which was riled up all night. It was an eerie evening. L.A. had a huge following of its own fans, a couple of fights broke out and, pecularily, a woman wandered onto the court in the first half (she was detained by police and escorted out of the arena).
• Dan Woike of The Orange County Register: While Caron Butler was grinding through injuries for the Washington Wizards, his teammates started calling him “tuff juice.” Butler took the nickname, made it his Twitter handle (@realtuffjuice), and Saturday, he showed the Clippers why. “I’ve got to live up to it,” Butler said. Sunday after a short practice, Butler talked about the decision to try and play with a broken bone in his left hand, and how it really wasn’t much of a decision at all. “It’s not going to get any more broken,” he said. “…I’m not going to be denied.” Butler scored four points in 23 minutes, but he provided an inspirational lift to his teammates and did a good job trying to slow Memphis’ top scorer, Rudy Gay. “We need Caron out there, a big guard who’s been in the league and been around,” Nick Young said. “And that’s somebody who can give Rudy Gay some problems.” Butler said he has no problems with making Gay his top priority in Game 4 Monday and beyond.
• Ronald Tillery of The Commercial-Appeal: The Grizzlies clearly weren't in any hurry to attend a film session devoted to making improvements from their Game 3 loss. "I ain't no Xs and Os guy," Griz guard Tony Allen said. "I just know we have to win." The Grizzlies face a 2-1 series deficit in their Western Conference first-round playoff duel with the Los Angles Clippers as Game 4 looms tonight in Staples Center. It's right in many respects to wonder just how powerful film sessions can be at this point. The Griz suffered a pair of one-point losses mainly because of being outworked down the stretch of those games. The Clippers have executed better with the game on the line because they have proven to be the more mentally tough team. "It's a shoulda, woulda, coulda deal when you look at the film," Griz point guard Mike Conley said. "Sometimes you just don't know how we lost. We've got to find a way to correct our mistakes because we're right there. We can still win this series." One of the last things Griz coach Lionel Hollins said Sunday afternoon was short and apropos. "We have to fight," he said.
• Jeff McDonald of the San Antonio Express-News: For three games in the Western Conference playoffs, Utah center Al Jefferson has seen his team beaten every which way, and by a combined 58 points. Finally, he has seen enough. Before Sunday’s practice, Jefferson essentially declared the Spurs to be NBA champions-in-waiting. “I just think we’re playing against a team that is at its peak,” Jefferson said. “I don’t see nobody beating them.” Jefferson’s comments were striking, considering Utah’s series with the Spurs is still in progress. Game 4 is tonight in Utah. Apprised of Jefferson’s prediction after their own practice session at EnergySolutions Arena, the Spurs seemed flattered, but deemed it premature. “The best team out there won’t be decided for a while yet,” coach Gregg Popovich said. “We’ve got a lot of work to do if we want to be that team, and we’re trying.”
• Kurt Kragthorpe of The Salt Lake Tribune: Just once, Jazz fans deserve a good ending. While there’s not much hope of the Jazz’s extending this series beyond a Game 5 in San Antonio, winning Monday’s Game 4 at EnergySolutions Arena would be meaningful. That’s true for two reasons: Through three games, the Spurs have dominated them like no other opponent in the Jazz’s postseason history. And whether they were facing elimination or just trying to catch up in a series, the Jazz have not won their final home playoff game since 2000. This farewell had better be different. Otherwise, the Jazz’s being swept by the Spurs would undo much of the good they’ve done this season. Those 36 victories in the shortened, 66-game season and all the effort it took to make the playoffs would be obscured by four straight defeats. This team has come too far to have it all end this soon. The 2011-12 Jazz deserve to be remembered for more than a first-round playoff disaster. Of course, that legacy is entirely up to them — and the Spurs. Even one Jazz victory in this series would require some cooperation from San Antonio. The Spurs were primed for the playoffs; the Jazz were geared just to get here.

Rajon Rondo is making it clear how important point guard play is in the NBA playoffs.

Rondo is the first player with at least 20 points and 16 assists with no more than one turnover in a playoff game since Tim Hardaway for the Golden State Warriors in 1991, who had 27 points, 20 assists and one turnover against the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 5 of the Western Conference Semifinals. Rondo, Hardaway and Magic Johnson are the only players to accomplish this feat in the last 25 years.

In the last 25 seasons, a Boston Celtics player has had at least 16 assists in a playoff game eight times. Rondo has seven of those performances (Larry Bird had the other in 1990).

Rondo consistently gets it done in the playoffs. Among players in NBA history with fewer than three turnovers per game, only John Stockton (10.1) averages more assists per game than Rondo (8.6).

With Rondo on the court in the playoffs, the Celtics are 14 points better per 100 possessions than they are when Rondo is off the court.

Their offense is significantly better with Rondo, scoring 21 more points per 100 possessions. They're shooting 10 percentage points higher from the field and 13 percentage points higher on 3-point attempts, and they're averaging nine more assists with 5.5 fewer turnovers per 48 minutes with Rondo on the court.

A popular definition of a great point guard is one who makes his teammates better. There’s no better example of that in the playoffs than Rondo with Kevin Garnett. When Rondo is on the court in this series, Garnett is averaging eight more points per 48 minutes and shooting 25 percent better from the field.

Garnett, Avery Bradley and Brandon Bass are all scoring more, shooting better and have a better plus-minus when Rondo is on the court.

How important is a reliable point guard in the playoffs? Just ask the Bulls, who lost Derrick Rose to a torn ACL and went from an NBA title favorite to a First Round underdog.

Or how about the New York Knicks, who were outscored by a combined 60 points in their first three games against the Miami Heat before barely staying alive in Game 4?

Certainly, injuries to Jeremy Lin and Iman Shumpert have hurt the Knicks at point guard. No team has fewer assists (12.5) or more turnovers (19.5) per game in the playoffs than the Knicks. Their starting point guard, Baron Davis, who exited Game 4 with a dislocated patella, has 13 assists and 13 turnovers in the series. Every single other playoff team has at least one player with more assists per game in the playoffs than Davis, who leads the Knicks.

Still not sure how important strong point guard play is in the playoffs? Over the last three seasons, point guards with at least 12 assists are 19-6 in playoff games.